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True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/683 | Egypt and Russia are in discussions to establish a Russian industrial zone at Port Said on the Suez Canal (<a href = "http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-07/12/c_136436144.htm"target="_blank">Xinhua Net</a>, <a href = "https://af.reuters.com/article/africaTech/idAFL4N1ME2UT"target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href = "ht... | 2018-01-11 | Before 1 January 2018, will Russia and Egypt sign an agreement to establish a Russian industrial zone on the Suez Canal? | 2017-11-07 | [["2017-11-07", 0.0], ["2017-11-07", 0.24], ["2017-11-07", 0.05], ["2017-11-07", 0.12], ["2017-11-07", 0.06], ["2017-11-07", 0.025], ["2017-11-07", 0.15], ["2017-11-08", 0.25], ["2017-11-08", 0.25], ["2017-11-08", 0.65], ["2017-11-08", 0.525], ["2017-11-08", 0.55], ["2017-11-08", 0.475], ["2017-11-08", 0.55], ["2017-11... | ["https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/12/13/first-phase-russian-industrial-zone-implementation-starting-next-month/", "https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/3/36333/More-than-30B-Russian-deals-expected-during-Putin%E2%80%99s-visit", "https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/agreement", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/w... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/379 | Amazon completed its first drone delivery in the U.K., the debut of its unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) shipping service (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/14/amazon-claims-first-successful-prime-air-drone-delivery"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>). U.S. commercial drone rules were finalized at... | 2018-01-08 | Before 1 January 2018, will the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration grant a waiver allowing Amazon to test its unmanned aerial vehicles? | 2017-01-06 | [["2017-01-06", 0.765], ["2017-01-06", 0.4], ["2017-01-06", 0.475], ["2017-01-06", 0.85], ["2017-01-06", 0.86], ["2017-01-06", 0.75], ["2017-01-06", 0.65], ["2017-01-06", 0.675], ["2017-01-07", 0.25], ["2017-01-07", 0.5], ["2017-01-07", 0.65], ["2017-01-07", 0.65], ["2017-01-07", 0.3], ["2017-01-07", 0.35], ["2017-01-0... | ["https://www.expouav.com/news/latest/perfect-union-us-regulations-trend-toward-coexistence-uavs-aircraft/", "https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/jul/25/amazon-to-test-drone-delivery-uk-government", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/request_waiver/waiver_safety_explanation_guidelines/", "https://www.faa.gov/uas/programs... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-05-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/896 | There is growing discussion regarding the repeal of Ireland's Eighth Amendment, which bans most abortions (<a href = "http://www.irishstatutebook.ie/eli/1983/ca/8/enacted/en/print"target="_blank">Irish Statute Book</a>, <a href = "https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/eoghan-murphy-abortion-a-matter-for-a-... | 2018-05-29 | Before 1 October 2018, will a referendum repealing or amending Ireland's 'right-to-life' Eighth Amendment pass? | 2018-03-07 | [["2018-03-07", 0.66], ["2018-03-07", 0.05], ["2018-03-07", 0.475], ["2018-03-07", 0.6], ["2018-03-07", 0.6], ["2018-03-07", 0.75], ["2018-03-07", 0.9], ["2018-03-08", 0.9], ["2018-03-08", 0.825], ["2018-03-08", 0.75], ["2018-03-08", 0.9], ["2018-03-08", 0.93], ["2018-03-08", 0.765], ["2018-03-08", 0.765], ["2018-03-08... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2017-01-20 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299 | This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 20 January 2017
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The Trans-Pacific Pa... | 2017-01-20 | Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership be ratified by Congress before 20 January 2017? | 2016-10-14 | [["2016-10-14", 0.15], ["2016-10-14", 0.005], ["2016-10-14", 0.01], ["2016-10-14", 0.01], ["2016-10-14", 0.0], ["2016-10-14", 0.0], ["2016-10-14", 0.0], ["2016-10-14", 0.0], ["2016-10-15", 0.0], ["2016-10-15", 0.0], ["2016-10-15", 0.0], ["2016-10-15", 0.0], ["2016-10-15", 0.0], ["2016-10-15", 0.0], ["2016-10-15", 0.0],... | ["http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/pdf/text.pdf", "http://www.politico.com/tipsheets/morning-trade#ixzz4OPEeivZm", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-china-apec-idUSKBN13D0BI", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/299-will-the-trans-pacific-partnership-be-ratified-by-congress-before-20-january-201... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1010 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank"">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a s... | 2020-01-05 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan? | 2018-09-28 | [["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.025], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.06], ["2018-09-30", 0.07], ["2018-10-01", 0.07], ["2018-10-01", 0.075], ["2018-10-01", 0.06], ["2018-10-01", 0.07], ["2018-10-01", 0.07], ["2018-10-03", 0.07], ["2018-10-04", 0.065], ["2018-10... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/256 | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project’s Definitions page</a>. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified India as the 19th country at the greatest risk of a... | 2017-03-30 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in India before 1 January 2017? | 2016-08-09 | [["2016-08-09", 0.0], ["2016-08-09", 0.0], ["2016-08-09", 0.015], ["2016-08-09", 0.02], ["2016-08-09", 0.005], ["2016-08-10", 0.0], ["2016-08-10", 0.0], ["2016-08-10", 0.0], ["2016-08-10", 0.005], ["2016-08-10", 0.025], ["2016-08-10", 0.01], ["2016-08-10", 0.01], ["2016-08-10", 0.005], ["2016-08-10", 0.01], ["2016-08-1... | ["http://www.earlywarningproject.com/2015/05/05/india-s-gujarat-faces-atrocity-risks-despite-new-development-efforts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_massacres_in_India", "http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-witnesses-lowest-civilians-deaths-in-25-years-due-to-extremism-report-1442701", "http://www.hindustanti... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-04-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/405 | In a June 2016 tax reform blueprint, House Republicans proposed a “border adjustment tax,” a tax levied on imported goods (<a href = "http://www.forbes.com/sites/timtodd/2017/01/17/what-is-a-border-adjustment-tax/#3dc8e88d1d47"target="_blank">Forbes</a>). Such a tax is supported by House Speaker Paul Ryan, among others... | 2017-05-02 | Will a border adjustment tax be passed by the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives before 30 April 2017? | 2017-02-03 | [["2017-02-03", 0.3], ["2017-02-03", 0.325], ["2017-02-03", 0.55], ["2017-02-03", 0.525], ["2017-02-03", 0.275], ["2017-02-03", 0.35], ["2017-02-03", 0.13], ["2017-02-03", 0.05], ["2017-02-03", 0.03], ["2017-02-03", 0.04], ["2017-02-04", 0.05], ["2017-02-04", 0.25], ["2017-02-04", 0.25], ["2017-02-04", 0.25], ["2017-02... | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-tax-exclusive-idUSKBN1622J5", "http://fortune.com/2017/03/15/donald-trump-tax-reform-gop/", "http://thehill.com/policy/finance/322971-flake-becomes-latest-gop-senator-to-raise-concerns-about-border-tax-proposal", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/01/us/politics/trump-border-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-04-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/99 | Iranian conservatives include both traditional and hardline camps (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/wp/2015/04/15/irans-conservative-consensus-on-the-nuclear-deal/" target = "_blank">Washington Post</a>). Hardliners have held most of the seats in Iran's parliament, the Majles, since 2004, whe... | 2016-05-02 | Will conservatives retain their majority in the Majles after Iran's upcoming parliamentary elections? | 2015-12-15 | [["2015-12-15", 0.7], ["2015-12-15", 0.675], ["2015-12-15", 0.685], ["2015-12-15", 0.725], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-15", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12-16", 0.75], ["2015-12... | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-idUSKCN0XR04L", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/213530", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/irans-parliament-in-the-balance-in-election-run-off/", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Birch_Society", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/04/29/1061353/voting-underw... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-03-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/22 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>According to the constitution of Brazil, President Rousseff would be impeached if the Chamber of Deputies authorizes, by a two-thirds vote, legal proceedings to be initiated against her (<a href="... | 2016-04-01 | Will Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff resign or be impeached before 1 April 2016? | 2015-09-07 | [["2015-09-09", 0.315], ["2015-09-09", 0.2], ["2015-09-09", 0.2], ["2015-09-10", 0.2], ["2015-09-10", 0.2], ["2015-09-10", 0.165], ["2015-09-10", 0.15], ["2015-09-10", 0.18], ["2015-09-11", 0.2], ["2015-09-11", 0.2], ["2015-09-11", 0.19], ["2015-09-11", 0.18], ["2015-09-12", 0.18], ["2015-09-12", 0.165], ["2015-09-12",... | ["http://www.businessinsider.com/brazils-embattled-president-dilma-rousseff-says-she-will-never-resign-2016-3", "http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/20/brazil-corruption-impeachment-probe", "http://www.businessinsider.com/brazils-biggest-party-dumps-rousseff-2016-3", "http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8d39a416-f222-11e5-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-09-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/198 | This question was closed on option B ('No') with a closing date of 9/30/2016.
In the wake of protests over elections held in 2009, the government of Iran began blocking access to Facebook and Twitter. Some Iranian government officials use these social media channels, and many citizens access them illegally through v... | 2016-10-04 | Will Iran officially lift its ban on either Facebook or Twitter before 1 October 2016? | 2016-05-10 | [["2016-05-10", 0.25], ["2016-05-10", 0.06], ["2016-05-10", 0.12], ["2016-05-10", 0.09], ["2016-05-10", 0.115], ["2016-05-10", 0.18], ["2016-05-10", 0.135], ["2016-05-10", 0.135], ["2016-05-10", 0.1], ["2016-05-10", 0.045], ["2016-05-10", 0.04], ["2016-05-10", 0.04], ["2016-05-11", 0.04], ["2016-05-11", 0.03], ["2016-0... | ["https://cyber.law.harvard.edu/node/99511", "http://en.farsnews.com/newstext.aspx?nn=13950222001323", "http://phys.org/news/2016-08-iran-rounds-social-network-users.html", "http://www.voanews.com/content/iran-pokemon-go-ban/3452601.html", "http://time.com/4338539/iran-headscarves-model-arrests/", "http://www.al-monito... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/641 | The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_bl... | 2017-11-07 | Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Tunisia between 15 October 2017 and 31 October 2017? | 2017-10-06 | [["2017-10-11", 0.75], ["2017-10-11", 0.8], ["2017-10-11", 0.425], ["2017-10-11", 0.42], ["2017-10-11", 0.145], ["2017-10-11", 0.14], ["2017-10-12", 0.1], ["2017-10-12", 0.1], ["2017-10-12", 0.065], ["2017-10-12", 0.1], ["2017-10-12", 0.05], ["2017-10-12", 0.1], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12", 0.15], ["2017-10-12"... | ["http://af.reuters.com/article/tunisiaNews/idAFL8N1MQ16A?feedType=RSS&feedName=tunisiaNews", "http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL8N1MQ16A?feedType=RSS&feedName=tunisiaNews"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-02-02 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/111 | <img height="1" width="1" style="display:none" src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=570990896342688&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>More than 90% of California is experiencing a 'severe drought' or worse (<a href = "http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA" target = "_blank">Drought Monitor</a>). On 1 Apr... | 2016-02-08 | Will California extend the current restriction on urban water use before it expires on 29 February 2016? | 2016-01-12 | [["2016-01-12", 0.55], ["2016-01-12", 0.65], ["2016-01-12", 0.71], ["2016-01-12", 0.68], ["2016-01-12", 0.74], ["2016-01-12", 0.76], ["2016-01-12", 0.76], ["2016-01-12", 0.785], ["2016-01-12", 0.8], ["2016-01-12", 0.85], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", 0.9], ["2016-01-12", ... | ["http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/020216_7_proposed_emer_reg_text.pdf", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/comments010616/index.shtml", "http://www.waterboards.ca.gov/water_issues/programs/conservation_portal/docs/econ_impact_report_0122... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/564 | In February 2017, the UN declared that parts of South Sudan were experiencing a famine (<a href = "http://www.voanews.com/a/un-government-declare-famine-in-parts-of-south-sudan/3731713.html"target="_blank">Voa News</a>), and other countries in Africa, including Somalia, are facing the possibility of famine in the near ... | 2018-01-02 | Will the UN declare a famine in any part of Somalia in 2017?
| 2017-08-22 | [["2017-08-22", 0.91], ["2017-08-22", 0.1], ["2017-08-22", 0.39], ["2017-08-22", 0.365], ["2017-08-22", 0.45], ["2017-08-22", 0.11], ["2017-08-22", 0.3], ["2017-08-23", 0.475], ["2017-08-23", 0.475], ["2017-08-23", 0.475], ["2017-08-23", 0.3], ["2017-08-23", 0.25], ["2017-08-23", 0.2], ["2017-08-23", 0.2], ["2017-08-23... | ["http://news.trust.org/item/20170822185245-7hu1f/", "http://humanitariannews.org/20171207/somalia-security-council-press-statement-somalia-security-conference-inaugural-somalia-part", "https://www.criticalthreats.org/analysis/map-update-2-al-shabaabs-humanitarian-response", "https://theintercept.com/2017/11/16/u-n-sec... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2020-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1054 | Past examples of North Korean nuclear tests include those listed here: <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-17823706" target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/07/world/asia/north-korea-hydrogen-bomb-q-a.html" target="_blank">NY Times</a>.
<sub>Confused? Check our <a href="https://www.g... | 2020-01-01 | Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test before 1 January 2020? | 2018-12-07 | [["2018-12-07", 0.25], ["2018-12-07", 0.005], ["2018-12-07", 0.575], ["2018-12-07", 0.15], ["2018-12-07", 0.04], ["2018-12-08", 0.12], ["2018-12-08", 0.3], ["2018-12-08", 0.05], ["2018-12-08", 0.075], ["2018-12-08", 0.1], ["2018-12-08", 0.075], ["2018-12-09", 0.125], ["2018-12-09", 0.125], ["2018-12-09", 0.15], ["2018-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-12-11 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/344 | This question was closed as "no" with an end date of 11 December 2016. Birth of Nation was not nominated for "Best Motion Picture". <a href="http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/la-et-mn-golden-globes-2017-nominees-winners-list-20161212-story.html" target = "_blank">(LA Times)</a>
<sub>See our FAQ to learn... | 2016-12-12 | Will The Birth of a Nation be nominated for a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture - Drama? | 2016-11-04 | [["2016-11-04", 0.6], ["2016-11-04", 0.65], ["2016-11-04", 0.325], ["2016-11-04", 0.375], ["2016-11-04", 0.775], ["2016-11-04", 0.75], ["2016-11-04", 0.75], ["2016-11-04", 0.775], ["2016-11-05", 0.8], ["2016-11-05", 0.8], ["2016-11-05", 0.85], ["2016-11-05", 0.86], ["2016-11-05", 0.865], ["2016-11-05", 0.865], ["2016-1... | ["https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Birth_of_a_Nation", "http://www.standard.co.uk/goingout/film/the-birth-of-a-nation-film-review-don-t-fall-for-saint-nate-a3416431.html", "http://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/golden-globes-film-nominations-2017/sort/recent/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comme... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/944 | For more information on the accession process see: <a href = "https://ec.europa.eu/neighbourhood-enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining_en"target="_blank">European Commission</a>, <a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/countries/check-current-status/index_en.htm"target="_blank">European Commission</a>.
<sub>... | 2018-07-06 | Before 1 July 2018, will the European Council announce the opening of formal membership negotiations with any candidate countries or designate any new country as an official candidate for membership?
| 2018-05-09 | [["2018-05-09", 0.0], ["2018-05-09", 0.0], ["2018-05-09", 0.0], ["2018-05-09", 0.075], ["2018-05-09", 0.075], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-10", 0.0], ["2018-05-11", 0.0], ["2018-05-11", 0.005], ["2018-05-11", 0.00... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/193 | The Schengen Area allows citizens of participating countries to cross each others' borders without border checks (<a href="http://ec.europa.eu/dgs/home-affairs/what-we-do/policies/borders-and-visas/schengen/index_en.htm" target="_blank">European Commission</a>, <a href="http://europe.newsweek.com/five-things-you-need-k... | 2018-01-02 | Before 2018, will it be officially announced that any state is withdrawing from the Schengen agreement? | 2016-05-03 | [["2016-05-03", 0.675], ["2016-05-03", 0.24], ["2016-05-03", 0.25], ["2016-05-03", 0.35], ["2016-05-03", 0.3], ["2016-05-04", 0.15], ["2016-05-04", 0.15], ["2016-05-04", 0.135], ["2016-05-04", 0.09], ["2016-05-04", 0.15], ["2016-05-04", 0.135], ["2016-05-05", 0.12], ["2016-05-05", 0.135], ["2016-05-05", 0.165], ["2016-... | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/global-markets-idUSL5N18M22Q", "http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eu-leaders-urged-stick-together-9753827", "http://murciatoday.com/schengen-agreement-suspended-for-a-week-on-spanish_french-border._11465-a.html", "https://larswericson.wordpress.com/2016/05/12/gitrep-11may16pm/", "htt... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-07-18 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/123 | This question was closed with the answer "Yes" on 20 July 2016 with an end date of 19 July 2016. On 19 July 2016, Donald Trump became the official nominee of the Republican party on the first vote (<a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/07/19/delegates-ready-nominate-trump-roll-call-vote/87... | 2016-07-20 | Will the Republican candidate for president win the party's nomination on the first ballot, at the party's convention in July? | 2016-01-21 | [["2016-01-21", 0.955], ["2016-01-21", 0.95], ["2016-01-21", 0.95], ["2016-01-21", 0.9], ["2016-01-21", 0.9], ["2016-01-21", 0.9], ["2016-01-22", 0.88], ["2016-01-22", 0.865], ["2016-01-22", 0.865], ["2016-01-22", 0.88], ["2016-01-22", 0.885], ["2016-01-22", 0.85], ["2016-01-22", 0.85], ["2016-01-22", 0.85], ["2016-01-... | ["https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/jun/25/donald-trump-virginia-republican-delegate-sues-to-avoid-voting-convention", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/19/the-brutal-numbers-behind-a-very-bad-month-for-donald-trump/?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_fix-trumpnumbers-923am%3Ahomepage%2Fstory", "htt... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
False | 2016-06-16 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/218 | UPDATE 6/16/16: This has been voided. <a href="http://www.eihbank.de/en/contact/" target="_blank">EIH Bank</a>, headquartered in Hamburg, already owns branches in Tehran and Kish Island. Our question team is looking into whether a new question, which asks about European banks opening new branches or subsidiaries in Ir... | None | As of 1 June 2017, will a European Bank own a branch office or subsidiary bank located in Iran? | 2016-06-07 | [["2016-06-07", 0.78], ["2016-06-07", 0.25], ["2016-06-07", 0.625], ["2016-06-07", 0.825], ["2016-06-07", 0.575], ["2016-06-07", 0.65], ["2016-06-07", 0.7], ["2016-06-07", 0.6], ["2016-06-07", 0.55], ["2016-06-07", 0.4], ["2016-06-07", 0.4], ["2016-06-07", 0.38], ["2016-06-07", 0.39], ["2016-06-07", 0.34], ["2016-06-07... | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/iran-banks-idUSL8N19637F", "https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/31798333/extremely-difficult-for-eu-to-work-with-trump-commissioner/#page1", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/254889", "http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/06/10/469855/Iran-bank-joins-euro-payment-system", "http://www... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2017-03-15 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/382 | The Netherlands is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections on 15 March 2017 and Geert Wilders, the head of the Freedom Party (PVV), has been ahead in the polls (<a href = "http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/741449/geert-wilders-freedom-party-election-polls-ahead-eu"target = "_blank">Express UK<a/>). If no governm... | 2017-10-26 | Will Geert Wilders become prime minister of the Netherlands after the March 2017 elections? | 2017-01-10 | [["2017-01-10", 0.1], ["2017-01-10", 0.075], ["2017-01-10", 0.15], ["2017-01-10", 0.09], ["2017-01-10", 0.09], ["2017-01-10", 0.1], ["2017-01-10", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.09], ["2017-01-11", 0.1], ["2017-01-11", 0.09], ["2017-01-11", 0.095], ["2017-01-11", 0.095], ["2017-01-11",... | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-netherlands-election-turkey-idUSKBN16F1CN?il=0", "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-28/rutte-expects-41-seats-in-dutch-vote-giving-him-a-path-to-power", "http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/02/11/wilders-whatever-happens-2017-populist-genie-bottle/", "http://www.bbc.co... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/156 | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target = "_blank">Definitions</a> page.
According to these criteria, Nigeria is already experiencing two episodes of mass killing: one perpetrated by Boko H... | 2017-03-30 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Nigeria before 1 January 2017? | 2016-03-08 | [["2016-03-08", 0.56], ["2016-03-08", 0.65], ["2016-03-08", 0.215], ["2016-03-08", 0.18], ["2016-03-08", 0.26], ["2016-03-09", 0.65], ["2016-03-09", 0.65], ["2016-03-09", 0.65], ["2016-03-09", 0.65], ["2016-03-09", 0.65], ["2016-03-09", 0.4], ["2016-03-10", 0.28], ["2016-03-10", 0.29], ["2016-03-10", 0.28], ["2016-03-1... | ["https://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2016/10/11/Sheikh-Zakzaky-the-face-of-a-dangerous-Iranian-design-in-Africa.html", "https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2016/11/peaceful-pro-biafra-activists-killed-in-chilling-crackdown/", "http://www.cfr.org/nigeria/nigeria-security-tracker/p29483", "http://da... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/371 | Anti-trust regulation, populism and a backlash against globalisation may be affecting appetites for dealmaking (<a href="http://www.theworldin.com/article/12757/waving-goodbye" target="_blank">The World in 2017</a>). Question will be suspended on 30 June 2017 and resolved based on open source reporting of Thomson Reute... | 2017-07-05 | Will the value of announced global mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals during the second quarter of 2017 exceed those in the second quarter of 2016? | 2016-12-20 | [["2016-12-20", 0.79], ["2016-12-20", 0.86], ["2016-12-20", 0.88], ["2016-12-20", 0.75], ["2016-12-20", 0.925], ["2016-12-20", 0.9], ["2016-12-20", 0.825], ["2016-12-21", 0.84], ["2016-12-21", 0.685], ["2016-12-21", 0.635], ["2016-12-21", 0.65], ["2016-12-21", 0.65], ["2016-12-21", 0.675], ["2016-12-21", 0.65], ["2016-... | ["https://markets.ft.com/data/league-tables/tables-and-trends/mergers-and-acquisitions", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/company/corporate-trends/global-ma-activity-may-drop-to-2-5-trillion-in-2017-report/articleshow/57035505.cms", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-steel-m-a-global-idUSKBN17Z0VR", "https://w... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-12-21 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/773 | Examples of current and past pro-independence parties include the Catalan European Democratic Party (PDECat), the Republican Left of Catalonia (ERC), the Popular Unity Candidacy (CUP), Catalonia Yes (CatSi), and Democrats of Catalonia (DC). Regional elections are scheduled for 21 December 2017 (<a href = "https://www... | 2017-12-27 | Will Catalan pro-independence parties hold a majority of seats after the upcoming regional elections? | 2017-11-28 | [["2017-11-29", 0.15], ["2017-11-29", 0.08], ["2017-11-29", 0.13], ["2017-11-29", 0.14], ["2017-11-29", 0.45], ["2017-11-29", 0.1], ["2017-11-30", 0.6], ["2017-11-30", 0.435], ["2017-11-30", 0.435], ["2017-11-30", 0.26], ["2017-11-30", 0.26], ["2017-11-30", 0.27], ["2017-11-30", 0.25], ["2017-11-30", 0.3], ["2017-11-30... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_regional_election,_2017", "http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/catalonia-pro-independence-movement-what-its-like-carles-puigdemont-catalonians-vote-spain-a8099906.html", "https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/12/15/inenglish/1513333454_661556.html", "https://ig.ft.com/catalon... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2016-11-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/178 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'Yes' with an end date of 8 November 2016. Senator Rob Portman (R - OH) won his bid for reelection on November 8 against Democratic challenger Ted Strickland. (<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/senate" target="_blank">NY Times</a>)
<sub>See our FAQ to ... | 2016-11-16 | Will Senator Rob Portman (R-OH) be re-elected this November? | 2016-04-15 | [["2016-04-15", 0.44], ["2016-04-15", 0.44], ["2016-04-15", 0.39], ["2016-04-15", 0.38], ["2016-04-15", 0.365], ["2016-04-15", 0.365], ["2016-04-15", 0.39], ["2016-04-15", 0.45], ["2016-04-15", 0.45], ["2016-04-15", 0.47], ["2016-04-16", 0.47], ["2016-04-16", 0.47], ["2016-04-16", 0.5], ["2016-04-16", 0.515], ["2016-04... | ["http://www.ohio.com/news/politics/state/political-ad-buys-in-ohio-cancelled-as-outside-groups-see-portman-pulling-ahead-1.709272", "http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-ohio-senate-portman-vs-strickland", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/08/11/politics/florida-ohio-pennsylvania-senate-poll/", "http://link.washin... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2019-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1023 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ... | 2020-01-05 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from South Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in South Sudan? | 2018-09-28 | [["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.05], ["2018-09-29", 0.1], ["2018-09-30", 0.075], ["2018-10-01", 0.075], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-03", 0.05], ["2018-10-03", 0.05], ["2018-10-04", 0.05], ["2018-10-04", 0.045], ["2018-10-05", 0.04], ["2018-10-06", 0.03], ["2018-10-06", 0.035], ["2018-10... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/820 | After the victory of the "leave" campaign in the United Kingdom's 2016 referendum, there have been <a href = "http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/15/europe/populism-in-european-elections-visual-guide/index.html"target="_blank">calls</a> from factions within other EU member states to leave the <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.co... | 2019-01-02 | Before 1 January 2019, will any other EU member state schedule a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone? | 2017-12-15 | [["2017-12-15", 0.0], ["2017-12-15", 0.2], ["2017-12-16", 0.12], ["2017-12-16", 0.1], ["2017-12-16", 0.09], ["2017-12-16", 0.075], ["2017-12-16", 0.05], ["2017-12-17", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-18", 0.02], ["2017-12-19", 0.02], ["2017-12-20", 0.03], ["2017-12-20", 0.03], ["2017-12-22"... | ["https://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21718520-netherlands-more-risk-most-brexit-and-protectionism-retreat", "http://www.dw.com/en/italys-five-star-movement-feeds-on-voters-anger/a-42711560", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/667091", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/665603", "https://... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/922 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a ser... | 2019-05-20 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Sudan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Sudan?
| 2018-04-02 | [["2018-04-02", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.01], ["2018-04-03", 0.15], ["2018-04-03", 0.115], ["2018-04-03", 0.17], ["2018-04-04", 0.13], ["2018-04-04", 0.25], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.15], ["2018-04-04", 0.08], ["2018-04-05", 0.15], ["2018-04-06", 0.15], ["2018-04-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-09-07 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/569 | <b>Colin Kaepernick was not signed by an NFL team. This question closed as "b) no" with and end date of 7 September 2017.</b>
With the NFL season less than two weeks from kick-off, Colin Kaerpernick, the former starting quarterback for the 49ers, has yet to find a team (<a href = "https://www.cbsnews.com/news/colin... | 2017-09-11 | Before 7 September 2017, will Colin Kaepernick be signed by an NFL team?
| 2017-08-25 | [["2017-08-25", 0.0], ["2017-08-25", 0.35], ["2017-08-25", 0.225], ["2017-08-25", 0.05], ["2017-08-25", 0.2], ["2017-08-25", 0.4], ["2017-08-25", 0.7], ["2017-08-25", 0.55], ["2017-08-25", 0.845], ["2017-08-25", 0.73], ["2017-08-25", 0.76], ["2017-08-26", 0.76], ["2017-08-26", 0.555], ["2017-08-26", 0.555], ["2017-08-2... | ["https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/anonymous-nfl-exec-on-colin-kaepernick-i-dont-think-he-can-play/", "http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/09/01/colin-kaepernicks-old-position-coach-says-unemployment-is-football-related/", "https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2016/nov/11/sports-team-owners-make-huge-political-don... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-02-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/9 | Plummeting oil prices are threatening the country's main source of revenue, and runaway inflation is making it difficult for Venezuela and its state-owned oil and gas company to service its foreign debt (<a href = "http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2015/01/05/hello-2015-argentina-and-venezuela-the-emperor-has-no-clothes... | 2016-03-01 | Will the government of Venezuela or Petroleos de Venezuela S. A. (PDVSA) default on their foreign-currency debt before 1 March 2016? | 2015-09-01 | [["2015-09-02", 0.55], ["2015-09-02", 0.425], ["2015-09-02", 0.45], ["2015-09-02", 0.35], ["2015-09-03", 0.325], ["2015-09-03", 0.3], ["2015-09-04", 0.27], ["2015-09-04", 0.235], ["2015-09-04", 0.2], ["2015-09-06", 0.2], ["2015-09-06", 0.2], ["2015-09-08", 0.2], ["2015-09-08", 0.195], ["2015-09-08", 0.19], ["2015-09-10... | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-debt-idUSL2N1631PV", "http://www.newsmovingmarkets.com/2016/02/venezuela-sovereign-debt-default-risk-cds.html", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-10/venezuela-bonds-drop-for-third-day-on-heightened-default-concern", "http://buenosairesherald.com/article/208652/ve... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/359 | The first step in the WTO accession process is the establishment of a Working Party. Iran's Working Party was established in 2005 but has yet to meet (<a href="http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/08/iran-world-trade-organization-wto-accession-bid.html" target="_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href="https://www.wto... | 2018-01-02 | Will the World Trade Organization's Iran Working Party meet before 1 January 2018? | 2016-12-06 | [["2016-12-06", 0.06], ["2016-12-06", 0.1], ["2016-12-07", 0.0], ["2016-12-07", 0.03], ["2016-12-07", 0.065], ["2016-12-08", 0.1], ["2016-12-08", 0.1], ["2016-12-08", 0.075], ["2016-12-09", 0.05], ["2016-12-09", 0.05], ["2016-12-10", 0.05], ["2016-12-11", 0.05], ["2016-12-11", 0.05], ["2016-12-12", 0.055], ["2016-12-12... | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-navy-wargames-idUSKBN165094", "https://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/tif_e/org1_e.htm", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-iran-satellite-un-idUKKBN1AI1UJ", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-navy-idUSKBN16D1X3", "http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/31/un-sec... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-03-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1083 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series... | 2020-03-18 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from the Philippines engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Philippines? | 2018-12-28 | [["2018-12-28", 0.0], ["2018-12-28", 0.01], ["2018-12-29", 0.08], ["2018-12-29", 0.01], ["2018-12-29", 0.02], ["2018-12-30", 0.035], ["2018-12-30", 0.02], ["2018-12-31", 0.015], ["2018-12-31", 0.015], ["2018-12-31", 0.01], ["2018-12-31", 0.005], ["2019-01-02", 0.0], ["2019-01-02", 0.0], ["2019-01-02", 0.0], ["2019-01-0... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2016-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/184 | This question was closed with the correct answer "Yes" with an end date of 1 November 2016. <a href="http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2015/09/toyota-mirai-sales-figures-usa-canada-monthly-yearly.html" target="_blank">Good Car Bad Car</a> reports that Toyota sold 103 Mirai in October, pushing their yearly sales total to 81... | 2016-11-02 | Will Toyota sell or lease more than 750 Mirai in the US in 2016? | 2016-04-22 | [["2016-04-22", 0.33], ["2016-04-22", 0.375], ["2016-04-22", 0.35], ["2016-04-22", 0.34], ["2016-04-22", 0.295], ["2016-04-22", 0.33], ["2016-04-22", 0.3], ["2016-04-22", 0.29], ["2016-04-22", 0.15], ["2016-04-22", 0.19], ["2016-04-22", 0.15], ["2016-04-23", 0.15], ["2016-04-23", 0.175], ["2016-04-23", 0.225], ["2016-0... | ["http://toyotanews.pressroom.toyota.com/releases/tms-september-2016-sales-chart.htm", "http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1100377_more-than-1000-people-want-2016-toyota-mirai-hydrogen-fuel-cell-vehicles", "http://www.autoblog.com/2016/06/20/california-government-deal-toyota-mirai-fleet/", "https://www.gov.ca.gov/news... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2018-07-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/965 | Elections are scheduled to be held on 25 July 2018 and Nawaz Sharif's party, the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), or PML-N, remains popular despite the corruption charges leveled against Sharif (<a href = "https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21725686-grounds-nawaz-sharifs-dismissal-set-worryingly-wide-precedent-pakistan... | 2018-07-27 | Will the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) win an overall majority of seats in the National Assembly in the 2018 general election? | 2018-06-13 | [["2018-06-13", 0.55], ["2018-06-13", 0.15], ["2018-06-13", 0.12], ["2018-06-13", 0.22], ["2018-06-13", 0.145], ["2018-06-13", 0.55], ["2018-06-13", 0.45], ["2018-06-13", 0.45], ["2018-06-13", 0.4], ["2018-06-13", 0.225], ["2018-06-14", 0.1], ["2018-06-14", 0.1], ["2018-06-14", 0.1], ["2018-06-14", 0.1], ["2018-06-14",... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2015-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/61 | US coalition partners in Syria include Britain, France, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the UAE, and Jordan. A no-fly zone has been discussed as a potential way to protect civilians and humanitarian workers in Syria, but Russia's air campaign makes execution more difficult and more dangerous (http://www.bloombergview.co... | 2016-01-05 | Will the US or its coalition partners declare a no-fly zone in Syria before the end of the year? | 2015-10-19 | [["2015-10-19", 0.0], ["2015-10-19", 0.0], ["2015-10-19", 0.05], ["2015-10-19", 0.05], ["2015-10-19", 0.01], ["2015-10-19", 0.005], ["2015-10-20", 0.01], ["2015-10-20", 0.01], ["2015-10-20", 0.0], ["2015-10-20", 0.0], ["2015-10-20", 0.0], ["2015-10-20", 0.0], ["2015-10-20", 0.0], ["2015-10-20", 0.005], ["2015-10-20", 0... | ["http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/10/23/why-the-idea-of-no-fly-zones-in-syria-should-be-grounded/", "http://www.elpais.cr/2015/12/08/argumentos-basados-en-la-resolucion-2249-del-consejo-de-seguridad-en-el-reciente-informe-del-primer-ministro-britanico-sobre-siria-una-necesaria-clarificacion/", "http://nationalintere... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/614 | The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by the "Realtime [Month of Interest] All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data page (<a href = "http://www.acleddata.com/data/realtime-data/"target="_bl... | 2017-11-07 | Will ACLED record any civilian fatalities in Angola in October 2017? | 2017-09-20 | [["2017-09-20", 0.6], ["2017-09-20", 0.34], ["2017-09-20", 0.5], ["2017-09-20", 0.605], ["2017-09-20", 0.775], ["2017-09-20", 0.55], ["2017-09-20", 1.0], ["2017-09-20", 1.0], ["2017-09-20", 0.66], ["2017-09-20", 0.46], ["2017-09-21", 0.41], ["2017-09-21", 0.41], ["2017-09-21", 0.335], ["2017-09-21", 0.25], ["2017-09-21... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/614-will-acled-record-any-civilian-fatalities-in-angola-in-october-2017#", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/573815", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/585442"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1014 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ... | 2020-01-05 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from Pakistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Pakistan? | 2018-09-28 | [["2018-09-29", 0.04], ["2018-09-29", 0.03], ["2018-09-29", 0.04], ["2018-09-29", 0.045], ["2018-09-30", 0.04], ["2018-09-30", 0.03], ["2018-10-01", 0.025], ["2018-10-01", 0.02], ["2018-10-01", 0.02], ["2018-10-03", 0.02], ["2018-10-03", 0.015], ["2018-10-05", 0.01], ["2018-10-06", 0.01], ["2018-10-06", 0.015], ["2018-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/468 | On 30 March 2017, SpaceX succesfully launched the first recycled orbital-class booster, marking the first time in the history of spaceflight that a single booster has been used on two separate missions (<a href = "http://money.cnn.com/2017/03/30/technology/spacex-launch-ses-10-reused-rocket/"target="_blank">CNN</a>, <a... | 2018-01-08 | Before 1 January 2018, will SpaceX successfully relaunch an orbital-class booster within 24 hours of booster landing? | 2017-04-14 | [["2017-04-14", 0.75], ["2017-04-14", 0.31], ["2017-04-14", 0.25], ["2017-04-14", 0.035], ["2017-04-14", 0.035], ["2017-04-14", 0.05], ["2017-04-14", 0.05], ["2017-04-15", 0.08], ["2017-04-15", 0.08], ["2017-04-15", 0.065], ["2017-04-15", 0.065], ["2017-04-16", 0.08], ["2017-04-16", 0.045], ["2017-04-16", 0.035], ["201... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/565391", "https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/23/15861622/spacex-falcon-9-rocket-landing-success-buglariasat", "http://harvardpolitics.com/covers/the-new-space-race/", "https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsId=19074", "https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=qBNEgQ_SOTQ", ... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/904 | The Trump administration's tariffs on aluminum and steel are at the center of a policy battle in the US and abroad (<a href = "https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trade-is-the-republican-partys-last-stand/2018/03/08/b31c840e-2313-11e8-94da-ebf9d112159c_story.html"target="_blank">The Washington Post</a>, <a href = "... | 2019-01-02 | Before 1 January 2019, will either house of Congress pass a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs? | 2018-03-21 | [["2018-03-21", 0.0], ["2018-03-21", 0.03], ["2018-03-21", 0.01], ["2018-03-21", 0.005], ["2018-03-22", 0.075], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.05], ["2018-03-22", 0.015], ["2018-03-23", 0.0], ["2018-03-25", 0.0], ["2018-03-25", 0.015], ["2018-03-25", 0.0], ["2018-03-25", 0.025], ["2018-03-25", 0.03], ["2018-03-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/521 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series... | 2019-12-09 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen?
| 2017-06-30 | [["2017-06-30", 0.0], ["2017-06-30", 0.35], ["2017-07-01", 0.675], ["2017-07-01", 0.5], ["2017-07-01", 0.05], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.01], ["2017-07-02", 0.355], ["2017-07-02", 0.355], ["2017-07-03", 0.355], ["2017-07-03", 0.03], ["2017-07-03", 0.08], ["2017-07-0... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/242745"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-08-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/546 | <b>This question closed as "a) Yes", with and end date of 31 August 2017.</b>
The Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED) summarizes press reports on conflict and protest events in Africa and parts of Asia. Outcome will be determined by "The Realtime August 2017 All Africa File" found on the Realtime Data... | 2017-09-26 | Will ACLED record a riot/protest event in the Cote d’Ivoire (Ivory Coast) for August 2017? | 2017-08-07 | [["2017-08-09", 0.15], ["2017-08-09", 0.08], ["2017-08-09", 0.045], ["2017-08-09", 0.505], ["2017-08-09", 0.575], ["2017-08-09", 0.5], ["2017-08-09", 0.15], ["2017-08-09", 0.25], ["2017-08-09", 0.225], ["2017-08-09", 0.225], ["2017-08-09", 0.1], ["2017-08-09", 0.15], ["2017-08-09", 0.125], ["2017-08-09", 0.125], ["2017... | ["http://www.connectionivoirienne.net/116029/cote-divoire-un-mort-et-trois-blesses-dans-une-manifestation-des-agents-du-complexe-sucrier-de-ferkessedougou", "http://www.connectionivoirienne.net/115888/des-policiers-deployes-autour-dun-commissariat-au-sud-dabidjan-apres-une-manifestation", "http://www.connectionivoirien... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2018-06-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/484 | The Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) passed Congress in 1972 but fell three states short of the required 38 state legislature ratifications. On 22 March 2017, Nevada ratified the ERA, reinvigorating activists who are seeking to secure ratification by two additional legislatures (<a href = "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetw... | 2018-07-12 | Between 12 May 2017 and 1 July 2018, will two or more states ratify the Equal Rights Amendment? | 2017-05-12 | [["2017-05-12", 1.0], ["2017-05-12", 0.7], ["2017-05-12", 0.5], ["2017-05-12", 0.45], ["2017-05-13", 0.325], ["2017-05-13", 0.2], ["2017-05-13", 0.15], ["2017-05-14", 0.15], ["2017-05-14", 0.15], ["2017-05-14", 0.15], ["2017-05-14", 0.125], ["2017-05-15", 0.1], ["2017-05-15", 0.15], ["2017-05-16", 0.15], ["2017-05-16",... | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/nov/04/canada-cabinet-gender-diversity-justin-trudeau", "http://people.com/movies/lina-esco-swat-harvey-weinstein-sexual-harassment/", "https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/its-metoo-time-for-the-equal-rights-amendment-in_us_59fa6359e4b09887ad6f3d4a", "http://abcnews.go.com/Poli... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | 2017-10-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/637 | The question will resolve as "yes" if the <a href="http://eventdata.parusanalytics.com/data.dir/atrocities.html" target="_blank">Political Instability Task Force (PITF) Worldwide Atrocities Dataset</a> records any event with a start date (Start Day, Start Month, Start Year) in the period of interest, inclusive, for whi... | None | Will the PITF Worldwide Atrocities Dataset record an event perpetrated by a non-state actor in Burundi (BDI) that starts between 4 October 2017 and 31 October 2017? | 2017-09-29 | [["2017-10-04", 0.25], ["2017-10-04", 0.3], ["2017-10-04", 0.425], ["2017-10-04", 0.475], ["2017-10-04", 0.325], ["2017-10-05", 0.4], ["2017-10-05", 0.42], ["2017-10-05", 0.335], ["2017-10-05", 0.26], ["2017-10-05", 0.2], ["2017-10-05", 0.05], ["2017-10-05", 0.0], ["2017-10-06", 0.0], ["2017-10-06", 0.07], ["2017-10-06... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/590506", "http://www.wbrc.com/story/36482026/burundi-refugees-pressured-return-home-says-rights-group", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Burundian_unrest_(2015%E2%80%93present)#2016.E2.80.932017_events", "http://allafrica.com/stories/201710040033.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2016-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/201 | This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The Panama Papers a... | 2017-01-06 | Will Nawaz Sharif, whose family was recently implicated in the Panama Papers, cease to be Prime Minister of Pakistan in 2016? | 2016-05-17 | [["2016-05-17", 0.3], ["2016-05-17", 0.38], ["2016-05-17", 0.24], ["2016-05-17", 0.1], ["2016-05-17", 0.125], ["2016-05-18", 0.2], ["2016-05-18", 0.24], ["2016-05-18", 0.23], ["2016-05-18", 0.215], ["2016-05-18", 0.2], ["2016-05-18", 0.18], ["2016-05-18", 0.16], ["2016-05-18", 0.2], ["2016-05-19", 0.18], ["2016-05-19",... | ["http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/military-boys-set-timer-device-on-nawaz-sharif-government/articleshow/54876629.cms", "http://m.hindustantimes.com/world-news/nawaz-sharif-orders-action-over-news-story-on-national-security/story-hUizPziP8U344V30WXnUyL.html", "http://indianexpress.com/article/world/worl... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/231 | The Iranian nuclear deal established a Joint Commission to adjudicate disputes between the IAEA and Iran over access to undeclared nuclear facilities (<a href="http://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/nuclear-iran-weekly/how-will-inspections-work-iran-under-nuclear-deal" target="_blank">Iran Watch</a>, <a href="https:... | 2017-07-06 | Will any disputes over IAEA access to Iranian sites be referred to the Joint Commission before 1 July 2017? | 2016-07-05 | [["2016-07-05", 0.025], ["2016-07-05", 0.03], ["2016-07-06", 0.02], ["2016-07-06", 0.1], ["2016-07-06", 0.1], ["2016-07-06", 0.02], ["2016-07-06", 0.03], ["2016-07-07", 0.03], ["2016-07-07", 0.05], ["2016-07-08", 0.05], ["2016-07-08", 0.05], ["2016-07-09", 0.05], ["2016-07-09", 0.05], ["2016-07-10", 0.05], ["2016-07-10... | ["http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2017/01/31/un-security-council-to-hold-emergency-meeting-over-iran-missile-test.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-military-idUSKBN15J0BM", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-usa-arrest-idUSKBN16C0PI", "http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-n... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/541 | Al-Shabaab has conducted attacks in Somalia and Kenya (<a href = "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-15336689"target="_blank">BBC</a>, <a href = "http://abcnews.go.com/International/us-military-carries-offensive-airstrike-somalia-trumps-authorities/story?id=47966876"target="_blank">ABC News</a>, <a href = "https://ww... | 2018-07-02 | Will al-Shabaab attack a US diplomatic facility in Africa before 1 July 2018? | 2017-07-25 | [["2017-07-25", 0.17], ["2017-07-26", 0.25], ["2017-07-26", 0.045], ["2017-07-27", 0.03], ["2017-07-28", 0.02], ["2017-07-28", 0.02], ["2017-07-29", 0.05], ["2017-07-29", 0.05], ["2017-07-30", 0.05], ["2017-07-30", 0.145], ["2017-07-30", 0.15], ["2017-07-31", 0.165], ["2017-08-01", 0.15], ["2017-08-01", 0.15], ["2017-0... | ["http://www.atimes.com/article/china-establish-court-obor-disputes/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-43198444", "https://www.redanalysis.org/2017/01/30/chinese-new-silk-road-east-africa/", "http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-02/22/c_136992152.htm", "https://edition.cnn.com/2018/02/12/africa/somalia-al-shabaa... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-10-24 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/588 | <a href="http://www.fews.net/about-us" target="_blank">The Famine Early Warning Systems Network</a> provides early warning and analysis on acute food insecurity around the world. Question will resolve as "yes" if FEWS NET publishes one or more Food Security Alert(s) in the time period of interest that includes the word... | 2017-11-09 | Will FEWS NET publish a Food Security Alert with "famine" and "South Sudan" or "Nigeria" in its headline between 6 September 2017 and 25 October 2017? | 2017-09-06 | [["2017-09-06", 0.75], ["2017-09-06", 0.83], ["2017-09-06", 0.665], ["2017-09-06", 0.575], ["2017-09-06", 0.375], ["2017-09-06", 0.335], ["2017-09-06", 0.1], ["2017-09-06", 0.57], ["2017-09-07", 0.58], ["2017-09-07", 0.62], ["2017-09-07", 0.62], ["2017-09-07", 0.59], ["2017-09-07", 0.57], ["2017-09-07", 0.2], ["2017-09... | ["http://www.fews.net/west-africa/nigeria/alert/december-13-2016", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/591891", "http://www.fews.net/east-africa/south-sudan", "http://www.fews.net/critical-situation-nigeria", "http://www.fews.net/west-africa/nigeria", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/587263", "http://www... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-05-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/421 | Unrest in Kashmir is the source of constant tension between India and Pakistan (<a href = "http://www.ibtimes.com/india-pakistan-conflict-update-militants-attack-indian-army-post-kashmir-ceasefire-2425161"target="_blank">International Business Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/the-lines-that-ha... | 2017-06-02 | Will India or Pakistan launch a ground offensive in Kashmir before 1 June 2017? | 2017-02-21 | [["2017-02-21", 0.01], ["2017-02-21", 0.085], ["2017-02-21", 0.05], ["2017-02-21", 0.05], ["2017-02-21", 0.06], ["2017-02-22", 0.03], ["2017-02-22", 0.02], ["2017-02-22", 0.01], ["2017-02-22", 0.005], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-22", 0.0], ["2017-02-23",... | ["http://www.greaterkashmir.com/news/world/story/250366.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PBnO9dw3n6A", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upvZdVK913I", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-india-kashmir-idUSKBN17J0HZ", "http://bit.ly/2pI7BEn", "http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/india-to-boycott-china-s... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-05-24 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/180 | The next chairman of Iran's Assembly of Experts will be selected in May 2016 (<a href = "http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/03/iran-assembly-of-experts-internal-election-chairmanship.html" target = "_blank">Al-Monitor</a>, <a href = "http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/reasons-why-khamenei-re-asserting-his... | 2016-05-25 | Will a candidate included on the "List of Hope" or the "People's Expert's List" be elected as the next chairman of Iran's Assembly of Experts? | 2016-04-19 | [["2016-04-19", 0.85], ["2016-04-19", 0.8], ["2016-04-19", 0.5], ["2016-04-19", 0.545], ["2016-04-19", 0.445], ["2016-04-19", 0.34], ["2016-04-19", 0.0], ["2016-04-19", 0.68], ["2016-04-19", 0.74], ["2016-04-19", 0.4], ["2016-04-19", 0.605], ["2016-04-19", 0.8], ["2016-04-20", 0.89], ["2016-04-20", 0.89], ["2016-04-20"... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Experts", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Society_of_Seminary_Teachers_of_Qom", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/242675", "http://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/239135", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pervasive_Coalition_of_Reformists", "http://www.khobreganemellat.n... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/295 | This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Superforecasting ... | 2017-01-04 | Will the book "Superforecasting" be listed as a New York Times bestseller between 7 October 2016 and 2 January 2017? | 2016-10-07 | [["2016-10-07", 0.55], ["2016-10-07", 0.55], ["2016-10-07", 0.57], ["2016-10-07", 0.305], ["2016-10-07", 0.06], ["2016-10-07", 0.1], ["2016-10-07", 0.1], ["2016-10-08", 0.275], ["2016-10-08", 0.475], ["2016-10-08", 0.415], ["2016-10-08", 0.36], ["2016-10-08", 0.305], ["2016-10-08", 0.13], ["2016-10-08", 0.12], ["2016-1... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/16-will-the-book-superforecasting-2015-be-on-the-new-york-times-besteller-s-list-by-the-end-of-october", "http://ritholtz.com/2016/12/annual-predictions-2017-edition/", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/355938", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/400690", "http://www.ny... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-02-02 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/38 | 2016-02-02 | Will Donald Trump win Iowa's Republican caucus? | 2015-09-21 | [["2015-09-22", 0.55], ["2015-09-22", 0.35], ["2015-09-22", 0.3], ["2015-09-22", 0.25], ["2015-09-22", 0.2], ["2015-09-23", 0.215], ["2015-09-23", 0.24], ["2015-09-24", 0.24], ["2015-09-24", 0.24], ["2015-09-25", 0.2], ["2015-09-25", 0.215], ["2015-09-25", 0.24], ["2015-09-26", 0.24], ["2015-09-26", 0.2], ["2015-09-26"... | ["http://thehill.com/video/in-the-news/267773-live-with-kelly-and-michael-race-pigs-to-predict-iowa-caucus-winner", "https://twitter.com/RosieGray/status/693534925782327296", "https://twitter.com/hashtag/caucusforbernie", "http://www.radioiowa.com/2016/01/18/surveying-undecided-iowa-gop-caucus-goers/", "http://forecast... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 | |
True | 2017-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/523 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series... | 2019-12-09 | Between 1 July 2017 and 30 June 2018, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?
| 2017-06-30 | [["2017-06-30", 0.05], ["2017-06-30", 0.45], ["2017-07-01", 0.725], ["2017-07-01", 0.725], ["2017-07-01", 0.275], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-01", 0.1], ["2017-07-02", 0.45], ["2017-07-02", 0.375], ["2017-07-02", 0.525], ["2017-07-02", 0.525], ["2017-07-03", 0.375], ["2017-07-03", 0.275], ["2017... | ["http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/iraq-army-intervene-kurds-referendum-escalates-170917042312324.html", "http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/09/twin-suicide-attacks-leave-dozens-dead-southern-iraq-170914132448913.html", "https://www.iraqbodycount.org/database/", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-41270791"... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-03-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1074 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series... | 2020-03-18 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi? | 2018-12-28 | [["2018-12-28", 0.02], ["2018-12-28", 0.035], ["2018-12-29", 0.03], ["2018-12-29", 0.02], ["2018-12-29", 0.02], ["2018-12-31", 0.02], ["2018-12-31", 0.02], ["2019-01-01", 0.02], ["2019-01-02", 0.02], ["2019-01-02", 0.02], ["2019-01-02", 0.015], ["2019-01-03", 0.02], ["2019-01-03", 0.015], ["2019-01-04", 0.015], ["2019-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
False | 2016-01-13 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/108 | In November 2015, foreign governments participating in UN-backed talks agreed that Syria should hold new elections in the next two years (<a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/11/14/us-france-shooting-syria-idUSKCN0T30Q520151114#8cKdE8OtClo8OiDS.97" target = "_blank">Reuters</a>). | None | Will Syria hold elections for its national government before 1 January 2018? | 2016-01-05 | [["2016-01-05", 0.17], ["2016-01-05", 0.135], ["2016-01-05", 0.1], ["2016-01-05", 0.135], ["2016-01-05", 0.17], ["2016-01-05", 0.25], ["2016-01-05", 0.17], ["2016-01-05", 0.25], ["2016-01-05", 0.33], ["2016-01-05", 0.25], ["2016-01-05", 0.17], ["2016-01-05", 0.25], ["2016-01-05", 0.17], ["2016-01-05", 0.185], ["2016-01... | ["https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghan_presidential_election,_2014", "http://sputniknews.com/middleeast/20151218/1031952062/syria-parliamentary-elections.html", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/syria/12086159/US-admits-Bashar-al-Assad-will-outlast-Barack-Obama.html>", "http://www.foxnews.com/worl... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | Not resolved. |
True | 2016-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/157 | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the Early Warning Project’s <a href = "http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target = "_blank">Definitions</a> page.
The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identify Zimbabwe as one of the top 35 countries most ... | 2017-03-30 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Zimbabwe before 1 January 2017? | 2016-03-08 | [["2016-03-08", 0.2], ["2016-03-08", 0.005], ["2016-03-08", 0.02], ["2016-03-08", 0.035], ["2016-03-08", 0.085], ["2016-03-08", 0.12], ["2016-03-08", 0.08], ["2016-03-08", 0.12], ["2016-03-09", 0.08], ["2016-03-09", 0.035], ["2016-03-09", 0.04], ["2016-03-09", 0.03], ["2016-03-09", 0.055], ["2016-03-09", 0.06], ["2016-... | ["https://zimnews.net/kasukuwere-moyo-g40-zimbabwe-corruption/", "http://ewn.co.za/2016/04/25/Zim-police-mulling-plans-to-garnish-bank-accounts-of-traffic-offenders", "http://nehandaradio.com/2016/10/25/army-angry-mugabe-takes-aim-g40-corrupt-officials/", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/an-old-leader-faces-new-threats-in-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-06-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/926 | A combination of missed production targets, a deadly accident, high levels of debt, and a downgraded credit rating have put stress on Tesla's stock price (<a href = "https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/03/tesla-first-quarter-production-totaled-34494-vehicles-40-percent-increase-from-previous-quarter.html"target="_blank">CNBC<... | 2018-07-12 | Will Tesla stock (TSLA:US) close below $200 on 29 June 2018?
| 2018-04-11 | [["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.0], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-11", 0.2], ["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.15], ["2018-04-11", 0.225], ["2018-04-11", 0.175], ["2018-04-11", 0.175], ["2018-04-11", 0.15], ["2018-04-12", 0.125], ["2018-04-12... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/200 | As part of a plan for economic transformation unveiled by Saudi Arabia in April 2016, the Saudi government has said that it intends to raise capital by floating shares in state-owned oil company, Saudi Aramco (<a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-economy-idUSKCN0XM1CD" target="_blank">Reuters</a>, <a href="... | 2018-01-02 | Will Saudi Arabia list shares of Saudi Aramco in an initial public offering before 1 January 2018? | 2016-05-17 | [["2016-05-17", 0.78], ["2016-05-17", 0.9], ["2016-05-17", 0.7], ["2016-05-18", 0.725], ["2016-05-18", 0.75], ["2016-05-18", 0.85], ["2016-05-19", 0.875], ["2016-05-19", 0.86], ["2016-05-19", 0.83], ["2016-05-19", 0.84], ["2016-05-20", 0.84], ["2016-05-20", 0.85], ["2016-05-21", 0.815], ["2016-05-21", 0.85], ["2016-05-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-08-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/928 | The first set of China's retaliatory tariffs took effect on 1 April 2018 (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/01/world/asia/china-tariffs-united-states.html"target="_blank">NY Times</a>, <a href = "http://www.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ae/ag/201804/20180402726864.shtml"target="_blank">Ministry of Commerce of the Peop... | 2018-08-03 | Between 11 April 2018 and 31 July 2018, will Chinese tariffs on any US aircraft take effect?
| 2018-04-11 | [["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.0], ["2018-04-11", 0.0], ["2018-04-11", 0.075], ["2018-04-11", 0.085], ["2018-04-11", 0.1], ["2018-04-11", 0.05], ["2018-04-12", 0.075], ["2018-04-12", 0.075], ["2018-04-12", 0.125], ["2018-04-12", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.2], ["2018-04-12", 0.125], ["2018-04-12... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/219 | This question closed as "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. Sales of the Leaf were 14,006 for 2016 (<a href = "http://nissannews.com/en-US/nissan/usa/channels/U-S-Sales-Reports/releases/nissan-group-reports-december-and-2016-calendar-year-u-s-sales"target = "_blank">Nissan</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn ab... | 2017-01-05 | Will Nissan sell more than 15,000 units of the LEAF in the US in 2016? | 2016-06-14 | [["2016-06-14", 0.25], ["2016-06-14", 0.15], ["2016-06-14", 0.1], ["2016-06-14", 0.15], ["2016-06-14", 0.155], ["2016-06-15", 0.21], ["2016-06-15", 0.18], ["2016-06-15", 0.15], ["2016-06-15", 0.15], ["2016-06-15", 0.105], ["2016-06-15", 0.1], ["2016-06-15", 0.1], ["2016-06-15", 0.09], ["2016-06-15", 0.06], ["2016-06-15... | ["https://www.yahoo.com/tech/nissan-confirms-next-gen-leaf-135003615.html", "http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/2016/06/nissan-leaf-sales-faceplant-chevy-volt-laughs-points/", "http://www.greencarreports.com/news/1107541_plug-in-electric-car-sales-for-nov-volt-soars-prius-prime-arrives", "http://insideevs.com/monthly-plu... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-01-29 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1069 | <p>PG&E is reportedly considering filing for bankruptcy protection after a series of wildfires in California (<a href="https://sacramento.cbslocal.com/2018/06/15/lawmakers-pge-talks-bankruptcy/" target="_blank">CBS</a>, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-15/pg-e-faces-deepening-fire-crisis-wit... | 2019-01-30 | Will California's Pacific Gas and Electric Company file for bankruptcy before 1 November 2019? | 2018-12-21 | [["2018-12-21", 0.02], ["2018-12-21", 0.1], ["2018-12-21", 0.125], ["2018-12-21", 0.175], ["2018-12-21", 0.11], ["2018-12-21", 0.08], ["2018-12-21", 0.08], ["2018-12-21", 0.05], ["2018-12-22", 0.09], ["2018-12-22", 0.125], ["2018-12-22", 0.1], ["2018-12-22", 0.08], ["2018-12-22", 0.09], ["2018-12-22", 0.085], ["2018-12... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2017-11-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/469 | In the past six months, Prime Minister Netanyahu has faced corruption charges (<a href = "http://www.timesofisrael.com/state-prosecutor-expands-legal-team-in-pm-corruption-probes/"target="_blank">The Times of Israel</a>, <a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/08/world/middleeast/netanyahu-israel-submarine-case.html... | 2017-11-02 | Will Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu resign, lose a vote of confidence, or call new elections before 1 November 2017? | 2017-04-18 | [["2017-04-18", 0.25], ["2017-04-18", 0.175], ["2017-04-18", 0.15], ["2017-04-18", 0.165], ["2017-04-18", 0.215], ["2017-04-19", 0.18], ["2017-04-19", 0.05], ["2017-04-19", 0.05], ["2017-04-19", 0.165], ["2017-04-19", 0.215], ["2017-04-20", 0.25], ["2017-04-20", 0.25], ["2017-04-20", 0.25], ["2017-04-20", 0.25], ["2017... | ["https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/04/benjamin-netanyahu-suspect-fraud-investigation-israel-police", "http://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Benjamin-Netanyahu/WATCH-Yaalon-pulls-no-punches-Netanyahu-absolutely-will-be-indicted-499479", "http://www.timesofisrael.com/pm-gifts-probe-could-drag-on-for-many-months-repo... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-03-05 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/883 | Rachel Morrison is the first woman to be nominated for an Academy Award<sup>®</sup> for Best Cinematography (<a href = "http://oscar.go.com/nominees/cinematography/mudbound-2"target="_blank">The Oscars</a>, <a href = "http://variety.com/2018/film/in-contention/oscars-first-female-cinematographer-mudbound-cinematogr... | 2018-03-05 | Will Rachel Morrison win the 2018 Academy Award<sup>®</sup> for Best Cinematography?
| 2018-02-01 | [["2018-02-01", 0.0], ["2018-02-01", 0.05], ["2018-02-01", 0.15], ["2018-02-01", 0.29], ["2018-02-01", 0.165], ["2018-02-01", 0.0], ["2018-02-01", 0.0], ["2018-02-01", 0.0], ["2018-02-02", 0.0], ["2018-02-02", 0.005], ["2018-02-02", 0.02], ["2018-02-02", 0.03], ["2018-02-02", 0.03], ["2018-02-02", 0.04], ["2018-02-02",... | ["http://www.goldderby.com/article/2017/2018-oscar-predictions-best-cinematography/"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/277 | Expectations that Iran's nuclear deal would quickly produce economic dividends are fading (<a href="http://qz.com/729036/a-year-on-irans-nuclear-deal-is-helping-its-economy-but-not-as-much-as-some-hoped/" target="_blank">Quartz</a>, <a href="https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2015/09/28/04/53/sp051716" target="_blank... | 2017-04-12 | Will the merchandise value of Iran's imports and exports in 2016 exceed $140 billion? | 2016-09-06 | [["2016-09-06", 0.82], ["2016-09-06", 0.46], ["2016-09-06", 0.34], ["2016-09-06", 0.22], ["2016-09-06", 0.135], ["2016-09-06", 0.135], ["2016-09-06", 0.11], ["2016-09-06", 0.15], ["2016-09-06", 0.15], ["2016-09-07", 0.105], ["2016-09-07", 0.105], ["2016-09-07", 0.03], ["2016-09-07", 0.03], ["2016-09-07", 0.01], ["2016-... | ["https://www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/report/global_oil.cfm", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/320908", "http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2006/september/tradoc_113392.pdf", "https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wts2016_e/wts2016_e.pdf", "http://www.theweek.co.uk/oil-price/60838/oil-steadies-as-putin-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-11-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/84 | This question was closed with the correct answer "No" with an end date of 30 November 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>
<hr... | 2016-12-06 | Will Turkey impose capital controls before 1 December 2016 ? | 2015-11-24 | [["2015-11-25", 0.71], ["2015-11-25", 0.65], ["2015-11-26", 0.53], ["2015-11-26", 0.61], ["2015-11-27", 0.505], ["2015-11-27", 0.61], ["2015-11-27", 0.61], ["2015-11-28", 0.6], ["2015-11-29", 0.41], ["2015-11-30", 0.405], ["2015-11-30", 0.4], ["2015-12-01", 0.4], ["2015-12-02", 0.39], ["2015-12-02", 0.365], ["2015-12-0... | ["http://www.nationaldebtclocks.org/debtclock/turkey", "http://www.dailysabah.com/politics/2016/08/22/following-july-15-turkey-will-transform-into-one-of-the-most-developed-democracies-in-the-world", "http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/turkish-capital-controls-out-of-the-question-deputy-pm-simsek.aspx?pageID=517&nID=... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/386 | Albania, Montenegro, Serbia, Turkey, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia are official candidates for EU membership (<a href = "http://ec.europa.eu/enlargement/policy/steps-towards-joining/index_en.htm"target = "_blank">European Commission</a>). In March 2015, Iceland withdrew from the EU membership process (<... | 2018-01-08 | Before 1 January 2018, will Turkey, Montenegro, Albania, Serbia, or Macedonia announce that it is suspending its participation in EU membership negotiations or withdrawing from the EU accession process? | 2017-01-16 | [["2017-01-17", 0.225], ["2017-01-17", 0.45], ["2017-01-17", 0.7], ["2017-01-18", 0.8], ["2017-01-18", 0.8], ["2017-01-18", 0.65], ["2017-01-18", 0.35], ["2017-01-18", 0.35], ["2017-01-18", 0.325], ["2017-01-18", 0.28], ["2017-01-19", 0.295], ["2017-01-19", 0.29], ["2017-01-19", 0.275], ["2017-01-20", 0.26], ["2017-01-... | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-turkey-idUSKCN1AX0RG", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-germany-turkey-merkel/in-shift-merkel-backs-end-to-eu-turkey-membership-talks-idUSKCN1BE15B?il=0", "https://www.reuters.com/article/us-turkey-eu-parliament-idUSKBN19R194", "https://europeanwesternbalkans.com/2017/04/1... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-08-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/460 | Uhuru Kenyatta will seek re-election in August 2017 (<a href = "http://www.theworldin.com/article/12629/politics-unusual?navigation=true"target=_blank">The Economist</a>, <a href = "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-16/kenya-s-elections-who-s-who-guide-to-the-main-political-players"target="_blank">Bloombe... | 2017-08-14 | Will Uhuru Kenyatta win Kenya’s August 2017 presidential election? | 2017-04-04 | [["2017-04-04", 0.8], ["2017-04-04", 0.84], ["2017-04-04", 0.925], ["2017-04-05", 0.9], ["2017-04-05", 0.9], ["2017-04-06", 0.935], ["2017-04-06", 0.92], ["2017-04-06", 0.92], ["2017-04-06", 0.895], ["2017-04-06", 0.97], ["2017-04-07", 0.94], ["2017-04-07", 0.945], ["2017-04-07", 0.96], ["2017-04-07", 0.9], ["2017-04-0... | ["http://africanarguments.org/2017/07/12/kenyatta-vs-odinga-a-study-in-contrasts/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/aug/11/kenyan-opposition-refuses-to-sign-off-on-election-charade", "https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001250012/ipsos-and-infotrak-differ-yet-again-on-who-will-win-presidential-election", "... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2019-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1011 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series ... | 2020-01-05 | Between 1 October 2018 and 30 September 2019, will an armed group from the Central African Republic engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Central African Republic? | 2018-09-28 | [["2018-09-29", 0.0], ["2018-09-29", 0.015], ["2018-09-29", 0.03], ["2018-09-29", 0.09], ["2018-09-30", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.05], ["2018-10-01", 0.04], ["2018-10-03", 0.04], ["2018-10-03", 0.03], ["2018-10-04", 0.03], ["2018-10-05", 0.03], ["2018-10-06", 0.03], ["2018-10-06", 0.02], ["2018-10-07", 0.02], ["2018-10-0... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-03-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/391 | Angela Merkel, the current chancellor and leader of the Christian Democratic Union party, announced that she would seek re-election in 2017 (<a href = "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/20/angela-merkel-expected-stand-for-re-election-germany"target = "_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a href = "http://www.wsj.com/art... | 2018-03-15 | Will Angela Merkel be elected as chancellor of Germany after the 2017 Bundestag election? | 2017-01-24 | [["2017-01-24", 0.75], ["2017-01-24", 0.7], ["2017-01-24", 0.64], ["2017-01-25", 0.675], ["2017-01-25", 0.75], ["2017-01-25", 0.775], ["2017-01-25", 0.83], ["2017-01-25", 0.83], ["2017-01-25", 0.85], ["2017-01-26", 0.875], ["2017-01-26", 0.81], ["2017-01-26", 0.85], ["2017-01-26", 0.85], ["2017-01-27", 0.835], ["2017-0... | ["http://www.dw.com/en/angela-merkels-potential-successors-as-chancellor/g-42213336", "http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-42802300", "http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2018/02/09/martin-schulz-exits-coalition-bid-stave-revolt/", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/feb/26/angela-merkel-cdu-to-vote-on-german-coalitio... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/485 | The September 2014 agreement that produced Afghanistan's current national unity government called for the convocation of a loya jirga (<a href = "http://www.rferl.org/content/afghanistan-loya-jirga-explainer/25174483.html"target="_blank">RFERL</a>), but the loya jirga has not yet convenved and the stability of Afghanis... | 2018-01-02 | Will a loya jirga convene in Afghanistan before 2018? | 2017-05-16 | [["2017-05-16", 0.25], ["2017-05-16", 0.0], ["2017-05-16", 0.075], ["2017-05-16", 0.15], ["2017-05-16", 0.16], ["2017-05-17", 0.15], ["2017-05-17", 0.21], ["2017-05-17", 0.215], ["2017-05-18", 0.215], ["2017-05-18", 0.25], ["2017-05-19", 0.215], ["2017-05-20", 0.07], ["2017-05-20", 0.05], ["2017-05-20", 0.05], ["2017-0... | ["https://www.gjopen.com/questions/485-will-a-loya-jirga-convene-in-afghanistan-before-2018/www.menafn.com/1096145878/Afghanistan--Only-traditional-Loya-Jirga-can-end-current-crisis-Rana-Think-Tank+&cd=1&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us", "https://www.afghanistan-analysts.org/hekmatyars-return-to-kabul-background-re... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-03-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/223 | This question was closed on "No" with an end date of 28 February 2017.
<sub>
See our FAQ to learn about <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question"" target=""_blank"">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href=""https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4"" target=""_blank"">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
The new <... | 2017-03-03 | Will SpaceX launch the Falcon Heavy rocket into low earth orbit before 1 March 2017? | 2016-06-14 | [["2016-06-14", 0.925], ["2016-06-14", 0.975], ["2016-06-14", 0.75], ["2016-06-14", 0.9], ["2016-06-15", 0.91], ["2016-06-15", 0.83], ["2016-06-15", 0.75], ["2016-06-15", 0.77], ["2016-06-15", 0.8], ["2016-06-15", 0.785], ["2016-06-16", 0.77], ["2016-06-16", 0.71], ["2016-06-16", 0.47], ["2016-06-16", 0.6], ["2016-06-1... | ["http://www.ibtimes.co.in/spacex-gets-set-launch-worlds-most-powerful-rocket-falcon-heavy-711230", "http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/02/22/516614289/spacex-cargo-craft-fails-to-dock-with-space-station-will-try-again", "http://www.itechpost.com/articles/73853/20170112/spacex-falcon-heavy-launch-details-annou... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-04-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/835 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series... | 2019-12-09 | Between 1 January 2018 and 31 December 2018, will an armed group from Ethiopia engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Ethiopia?
| 2017-12-28 | [["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.0], ["2017-12-28", 0.125], ["2017-12-29", 0.2], ["2017-12-29", 0.075], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-29", 0.05], ["2017-12-30", 0.03], ["2017-12-30", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.02], ["2017-12-31", 0.005], ["2017-12-31", 0.01], ["2017-12-31", 0.0], ["2017-12-31... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/907 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href="https://www.earlywarningproject.org" target="_blank">The Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a ser... | 2019-05-20 | Between 1 April 2018 and 31 March 2019, will an armed group from Iraq engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Iraq?
| 2018-04-02 | [["2018-04-02", 0.45], ["2018-04-02", 0.45], ["2018-04-03", 0.3], ["2018-04-03", 0.08], ["2018-04-03", 0.18], ["2018-04-03", 0.25], ["2018-04-03", 0.245], ["2018-04-03", 0.35], ["2018-04-03", 0.14], ["2018-04-03", 0.305], ["2018-04-03", 0.26], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-04", 0.05], ["2018-04-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-07-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/281 | Ghani became president of Afghanistan in 2014 as part of national unity government under a deal brokered by the US, but that deal is set to expire in September 2016 and tensions between rival factions have led to some calls for a change in the composition or form of the Afghan government (<a href="https://www.washingto... | 2017-07-06 | Will Ashraf Ghani cease to be president of Afghanistan before 1 July 2017? | 2016-09-13 | [["2016-09-13", 0.275], ["2016-09-13", 0.28], ["2016-09-14", 0.25], ["2016-09-14", 0.25], ["2016-09-14", 0.375], ["2016-09-15", 0.3], ["2016-09-15", 0.25], ["2016-09-15", 0.2], ["2016-09-16", 0.3], ["2016-09-16", 0.2], ["2016-09-16", 0.2], ["2016-09-17", 0.3], ["2016-09-17", 0.3], ["2016-09-18", 0.3], ["2016-09-18", 0.... | ["http://www.reuters.com/article/us-afghanistan-taliban-idUSKBN15F17I", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/10/world/asia/john-kerry-arrives-in-afghanistan-with-message-of-support.html", "http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/afghanistan-seeks-3b-aid-corruption-concerns-persist-42522878", "http://www.bbc.com/news/w... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/106 | This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016. There were 361,678 arrivals by sea in 2016 (<a href = "http://data.unhcr.org/mediterranean/regional.php"target = "_blank">UNHCR</a>).
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve que... | 2017-01-06 | Will more than 1 million refugees and migrants arrive in Europe by sea in 2016? | 2016-01-05 | [["2016-01-05", 0.225], ["2016-01-05", 0.275], ["2016-01-05", 0.35], ["2016-01-05", 0.48], ["2016-01-05", 0.5], ["2016-01-06", 0.5], ["2016-01-06", 0.5], ["2016-01-06", 0.5], ["2016-01-06", 0.5], ["2016-01-06", 0.505], ["2016-01-06", 0.525], ["2016-01-06", 0.52], ["2016-01-06", 0.515], ["2016-01-06", 0.58], ["2016-01-0... | ["http://fortune.com/2016/07/30/juncker-migrant-deal-turkey/", "http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3708369/Where-s-money-Turkish-president-Erdogan-accuses-EU-breaking-pact-migrants-says-owed-2-billion-stopping-entering-Europe.html", "http://naija247news.com/2016/07/merkel-firmly-rejects-calls-reverse-refugee-polic... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/174 | This question was closed a "no" with an end date of 31 December 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#faq4" target="_blank">how scores are calculated</a>.
<hr>
Poland's constitu... | 2017-01-06 | Will the European Union suspend any of Poland's membership rights in 2016? | 2016-04-05 | [["2016-04-05", 0.04], ["2016-04-05", 0.09], ["2016-04-05", 0.08], ["2016-04-05", 0.135], ["2016-04-05", 0.12], ["2016-04-05", 0.05], ["2016-04-05", 0.03], ["2016-04-05", 0.02], ["2016-04-06", 0.01], ["2016-04-06", 0.005], ["2016-04-06", 0.0], ["2016-04-06", 0.005], ["2016-04-06", 0.01], ["2016-04-06", 0.01], ["2016-04... | ["http://verfassungsblog.de/can-poland-be-sanctioned-by-the-eu-not-unless-hungary-is-sanctioned-too/", "http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-27/poland-plots-endgame-in-democracy-row-as-eu-obsesses-over-brexit", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/eu-faces-difficult-choice-as-poland-fires-latest-salvo-in-rule-of-law-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-06-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/952 | On 21 March 2018, the European Commission proposed new rules on the taxation of digital business activities of large tech companies like Google, Facebook, and Amazon (<a href="https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/21/facebook-google-and-amazon-to-pay-fair-tax-under-eu-plans" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>, <a... | 2018-07-02 | Before 1 July 2018, will the Council of the European Union adopt a directive on taxation of digital business activities? | 2018-05-16 | [["2018-05-16", 0.1], ["2018-05-16", 0.15], ["2018-05-16", 0.08], ["2018-05-16", 0.03], ["2018-05-16", 0.025], ["2018-05-16", 0.05], ["2018-05-16", 0.0], ["2018-05-17", 0.025], ["2018-05-17", 0.025], ["2018-05-17", 0.005], ["2018-05-17", 0.0], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.01], ["2018-05-17", 0.005], ["2018-05... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/279 | China and the GCC started negotiating a free-trade agreement in 2004, and in early 2016 the parties accelerated their talks in an effort to conclude the deal (<a href="http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/china-and-gulf-states-target-free-trade-deal-end-year-1187614884" target="_blank">Middle East Eye</a>, <a href="http:/... | 2017-10-04 | Will negotiations on a China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) free trade agreement be completed before 1 October 2017? | 2016-09-13 | [["2016-09-13", 0.455], ["2016-09-13", 0.5], ["2016-09-13", 0.49], ["2016-09-14", 0.38], ["2016-09-14", 0.425], ["2016-09-14", 0.5], ["2016-09-14", 0.52], ["2016-09-15", 0.53], ["2016-09-15", 0.645], ["2016-09-15", 0.665], ["2016-09-15", 0.7], ["2016-09-16", 0.715], ["2016-09-16", 0.665], ["2016-09-17", 0.69], ["2016-0... | ["http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-qatar-explainer-2017-story.html", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-apec-vietnam-idUSKCN18H02B", "http://gulfnews.com/news/gulf/saudi-arabia/ahead-of-king-s-visit-china-hopes-saudi-iran-can-resolve-problems-1.1990244", "https://dailynewsegypt.com/2017/07/17/china-involve... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-06-26 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/899 | In 2016, the National Institute of Family and Life Advocates (NIFLA) challenged the constitutionality of California's FACT Act's requirement that licensed healthcare providers post notices about the availability of state abortion programs, asking for a preliminary injunction of the law. That injunction was denied; a de... | 2018-06-27 | In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act? | 2018-03-14 | [["2018-03-14", 0.25], ["2018-03-14", 0.0], ["2018-03-14", 0.05], ["2018-03-15", 0.075], ["2018-03-15", 0.055], ["2018-03-16", 0.06], ["2018-03-16", 0.8], ["2018-03-16", 0.8], ["2018-03-17", 0.875], ["2018-03-17", 0.85], ["2018-03-17", 0.825], ["2018-03-17", 0.75], ["2018-03-17", 0.75], ["2018-03-18", 0.75], ["2018-03-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2018-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/976 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly ... | 2019-12-09 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Turkey engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Turkey? | 2018-06-27 | [["2018-06-27", 0.08], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.0], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.015], ["2018-06-27", 0.03], ["2018-06-27", 0.02], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-27", 0.025], ["2018-06-28", 0.02], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.0], ["2018-06-28", 0.025], ["2018-06... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-12-30 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/97 | This question was closed as "Yes" with an end date of 29 December 2016. The US imposed sanctions on Russia for malicious cyber activity on that date (<a href = "https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/12/29/fact-sheet-actions-response-russian-malicious-cyber-activity-and" target = "_blank">The White House</a>... | 2017-01-03 | Before the end of 2016, will a North American country, the EU, or an EU member state impose sanctions on another country in response to a cyber attack or cyber espionage? | 2015-12-15 | [["2015-12-15", 0.285], ["2015-12-15", 0.2], ["2015-12-15", 0.16], ["2015-12-15", 0.15], ["2015-12-15", 0.15], ["2015-12-16", 0.15], ["2015-12-16", 0.17], ["2015-12-16", 0.16], ["2015-12-16", 0.15], ["2015-12-16", 0.15], ["2015-12-16", 0.15], ["2015-12-16", 0.15], ["2015-12-16", 0.15], ["2015-12-16", 0.13], ["2015-12-1... | ["https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/clinton-blames-putins-personal-grudge-against-her-for-election-interference/2016/12/16/12f36250-c3be-11e6-8422-eac61c0ef74d_story.html?utm_term=.8e7a87acd2b8", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnitsky_Act", "http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/us/politics/donald-trump-russia-h... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2017-10-25 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/545 | The <a href = "http://www.fews.net/about-us"target="_blank">Famine Early Warning Systems Network </a> provides early warning and analysis on acute food insecurity around the world. This question will resolve as "yes" if FEWS NET publishes one or more Food Security Alert(s) between 9 August 2017 and 25 October 2017 that... | 2017-10-31 | Will FEWS NET publish a Food Security Alert with "famine" and "Yemen" in its headline between 9 August 2017 and 25 October 2017? | 2017-08-07 | [["2017-08-09", 0.2], ["2017-08-09", 0.205], ["2017-08-09", 0.16], ["2017-08-09", 0.7], ["2017-08-09", 0.885], ["2017-08-09", 0.55], ["2017-08-09", 0.65], ["2017-08-09", 0.425], ["2017-08-09", 0.51], ["2017-08-09", 0.51], ["2017-08-09", 0.455], ["2017-08-09", 0.4], ["2017-08-09", 0.25], ["2017-08-09", 0.25], ["2017-08-... | ["http://www.fews.net/east-africa/yemen/key-message-update/september-2017-1", "https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/un-chief-says-donors-kept-famine-at-bay--but-aid-needed/2017/10/12/cfc6d678-af9a-11e7-9b93-b97043e57a22_story.html?utm_term=.100fcc7fabf5", "https://www.hrw.org/news/2017/09/27/yemen-coalitions-blo... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-11-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/172 | This question was closed with the correct answer 'No' with an end date of 8 November. The Department of Justice did not indict Hillary Clinton before November 8, 2016.
<sub>See our FAQ to learn about <a href="https://www.gjopen.com/faq#question" target="_blank">how we resolve questions</a> and <a href="https://www.... | 2016-11-16 | Will the Department of Justice indict Hillary Clinton before 8 November 2016? | 2016-04-01 | [["2016-04-01", 0.05], ["2016-04-01", 0.035], ["2016-04-01", 0.06], ["2016-04-01", 0.365], ["2016-04-01", 0.175], ["2016-04-01", 0.05], ["2016-04-01", 0.05], ["2016-04-01", 0.05], ["2016-04-01", 0.05], ["2016-04-01", 0.05], ["2016-04-02", 0.035], ["2016-04-02", 0.02], ["2016-04-02", 0.02], ["2016-04-02", 0.02], ["2016-... | ["https://www.fbi.gov/news/pressrel/press-releases/statement-by-fbi-director-james-b.-comey-on-the-investigation-of-secretary-hillary-clintons-use-of-a-personal-e-mail-system", "http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-completes-investigation-hillary-clintons-personal-email-server/story?id=40346712", "http://www.vox.com/2016... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-10-22 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1098 | <p>Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held on 21 October 2019 (<a href="https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/no-early-election-pm-vows-next-federal-vote-to-be-held-in-october-2019-1.4219081" target="_blank">CTV News</a>, <a href=" https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/harper-to-resign-as-prime-minister-next-week-just... | 2019-10-25 | Will Justin Trudeau cease to be prime minister of Canada after the next federal election? | 2019-01-18 | [["2019-01-18", 0.13], ["2019-01-18", 0.1], ["2019-01-18", 0.4], ["2019-01-19", 0.3], ["2019-01-19", 0.455], ["2019-01-19", 0.53], ["2019-01-19", 0.505], ["2019-01-19", 0.38], ["2019-01-20", 0.38], ["2019-01-20", 0.46], ["2019-01-20", 0.325], ["2019-01-20", 0.17], ["2019-01-20", 0.2], ["2019-01-21", 0.145], ["2019-01-2... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/631 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series... | 2019-12-09 | Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from Burundi engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Burundi?
| 2017-09-29 | [["2017-09-29", 0.62], ["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.85], ["2017-09-29", 0.355], ["2017-09-29", 0.005], ["2017-09-30", 0.005], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-01", 0.0], ["2017-10-02", 0.11], ["2017-10-02", 0.235], ["2017-10-02", 0.22], ["2017-10-02", 0.22], ["2017-10-02... | ["https://reliefweb.int/report/burundi/burundi-populations-risk-serious-concern-15-september-2017"] | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/491 | Net neutrality made headlines in 2015 when the FCC issued rules that classified broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act, which limited their ability to block or prioritize some content over others (<a href = "https://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/27/technology/net-neutrality-fc... | 2018-01-08 | Before 1 January 2018, will the FCC cease to regulate broadband service providers as common carriers under Title II of the Communications Act? | 2017-06-02 | [["2017-06-02", 0.0], ["2017-06-02", 0.0], ["2017-06-02", 0.0], ["2017-06-02", 0.42], ["2017-06-02", 0.635], ["2017-06-03", 0.55], ["2017-06-03", 0.48], ["2017-06-03", 0.49], ["2017-06-03", 0.5], ["2017-06-03", 0.525], ["2017-06-03", 0.5], ["2017-06-03", 0.55], ["2017-06-03", 0.7], ["2017-06-04", 0.75], ["2017-06-04", ... | ["http://transition.fcc.gov/Daily_Releases/Daily_Business/2017/db1121/DOC-347869A1.pdf", "http://www.cnn.com/", "https://apps.fcc.gov/edocs_public/recentReleases.do", "https://energycommerce.house.gov/news/press-release/next-week-subcommtech-hold-oversight-hearing-fcc-commissioners/", "https://www.gjopen.com/questions/... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/308 | Since sanctions were lifted in early 2016, Iran has sharply increased its oil production (<a href="http://money.cnn.com/2016/06/16/investing/iran-pumping-lots-more-oil-sanctions/" target="_blank">CNN Money</a>), and the country is aiming to hit a rate of 4 million barrels per day in the near future (<a href="http://www... | 2018-01-18 | Before 1 January 2018, will Iran's monthly oil production exceed 4 million barrels per day? | 2016-11-01 | [["2016-11-01", 0.09], ["2016-11-01", 0.18], ["2016-11-01", 0.28], ["2016-11-02", 0.6], ["2016-11-02", 0.61], ["2016-11-02", 0.38], ["2016-11-02", 0.275], ["2016-11-03", 0.3], ["2016-11-03", 0.5], ["2016-11-03", 0.65], ["2016-11-04", 0.635], ["2016-11-05", 0.75], ["2016-11-05", 0.75], ["2016-11-05", 0.775], ["2016-11-0... | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-iran/iran-says-majority-of-opec-members-support-extending-oil-output-cuts-idUSKBN1DK0X2", "https://ycharts.com/indicators/iran_crude_oil_production", "http://uk.reuters.com/article/asia-oil-appec-iran/iran-says-to-keep-crude-condensate-exports-at-around-2-6-mln-bpd-in-2017-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-12-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/244 | For more information on what constitutes an episode of mass killing, see the <a href="http://www.earlywarningproject.com/definitions" target="_blank">Early Warning Project’s Definitions page</a>. The Early Warning Project’s 2015 statistical risk assessments identified Yemen as the 10th country at the greatest risk of a... | 2017-03-30 | Will there be a new episode of mass killing in Yemen before 1 January 2017? | 2016-07-19 | [["2016-07-19", 0.21], ["2016-07-19", 0.575], ["2016-07-19", 0.485], ["2016-07-20", 0.09], ["2016-07-20", 0.105], ["2016-07-20", 0.12], ["2016-07-20", 0.12], ["2016-07-20", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.03], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-07-21", 0.05], ["2016-0... | ["http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/1969/05/chicagos-blackstone-rangers-i/305741/", "https://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/search/Results.aspx?country=228", "http://english.sina.com/news/2016-07-17/detail-ifxuaiwa7085854.shtml", "https://www.alaraby.co.uk/english/news/2016/7/5/houthi-rockets-kill-seven-children-in-ye... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-10-17 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/179 | This question was closed on option B) 'No' on 17 October. As of this date, the US has not announced plans to open a consulate or an embassy in Iran.
The US has not had formal diplomatic offices in Iran since 1980, when diplomatic relations were severed after the hostage crisis (<a href = "http://www.state.gov/r/pa... | 2016-10-18 | Before 18 October 2016, will the US announce that it is opening a consulate or embassy in Iran? | 2016-04-19 | [["2016-04-19", 0.225], ["2016-04-19", 0.75], ["2016-04-19", 0.05], ["2016-04-19", 0.0], ["2016-04-19", 0.005], ["2016-04-19", 0.0], ["2016-04-19", 0.02], ["2016-04-20", 0.04], ["2016-04-20", 0.04], ["2016-04-20", 0.04], ["2016-04-20", 0.045], ["2016-04-20", 0.05], ["2016-04-20", 0.05], ["2016-04-20", 0.05], ["2016-04-... | ["http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/24/us/politics/iran-embassy-state-department.html", "http://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/2016/08/15/1158741/iran-should-brace-for-huge-sanctions-official-warns", "http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2016/06/258493.htm", "http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/13/iran-sends-ships-to-yemeni-coast-in... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-11-08 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/226 | This question was closed as "No" with an end date of 8 November 2016. Donald Trump won the electoral college, while Hillary Clinton won the popular vote (<a href = "http://time.com/4608555/hillary-clinton-popular-vote-final/" target = "_blank">Time</a>, <a href = "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-electora... | 2016-12-21 | Will the winner of the popular vote in the US presidential election also win the electoral college? | 2016-06-21 | [["2016-06-21", 0.475], ["2016-06-21", 0.95], ["2016-06-21", 1.0], ["2016-06-21", 0.95], ["2016-06-21", 0.95], ["2016-06-21", 0.99], ["2016-06-21", 0.99], ["2016-06-22", 0.99], ["2016-06-22", 0.98], ["2016-06-22", 0.99], ["2016-06-22", 0.99], ["2016-06-22", 0.99], ["2016-06-22", 0.995], ["2016-06-22", 1.0], ["2016-06-2... | ["http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#plus", "http://www.al.com/news/index.ssf/2016/08/latest_odds_on_hillary_clinton.html", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRMOMjCoR58", "http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/09/politics/donald-trump-hillary-clinton-popular-vote/", "http://www.abc.net.au/n... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/942 | The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) between Russia and the United States entered into force on 5 February 2011, and is scheduled to remain in force for ten years. There is an option to extend it for up to five years upon the agreement of both parties, or a new deal could be negotiated (<a href="https://... | 2019-10-01 | Will formal negotiations between Russia and the United States on a new nuclear arms control treaty or an extension/modification of an existing nuclear arms control treaty begin before 1 October 2019? | 2018-04-18 | [["2018-04-18", 0.575], ["2018-04-18", 0.1], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-19", 0.05], ["2018-04-20", 0.13], ["2018-04-20", 0.05], ["2018-04-21", 0.05], ["2018-04-22", 0.05], ["2018-04-23", 0.05], ["2018-04-23", 0.05], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-24", 0.05], ["2018-04-25", 0.05], ["2018-04-2... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-03-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1072 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series... | 2020-03-18 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Afghanistan engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Afghanistan? | 2018-12-28 | [["2018-12-28", 0.06], ["2018-12-28", 0.155], ["2018-12-29", 0.25], ["2018-12-29", 0.31], ["2018-12-29", 0.61], ["2018-12-30", 0.46], ["2018-12-31", 0.465], ["2018-12-31", 0.465], ["2018-12-31", 0.08], ["2019-01-01", 0.08], ["2019-01-01", 0.08], ["2019-01-02", 0.07], ["2019-01-02", 0.07], ["2019-01-02", 0.06], ["2019-0... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-03-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/1070 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series... | 2020-03-18 | Between 1 January 2019 and 31 December 2019, will an armed group from Yemen engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Yemen? | 2018-12-28 | [["2018-12-28", 0.1], ["2018-12-28", 0.05], ["2018-12-28", 0.1], ["2018-12-29", 0.09], ["2018-12-29", 0.08], ["2018-12-30", 0.065], ["2018-12-31", 0.05], ["2018-12-31", 0.04], ["2018-12-31", 0.045], ["2019-01-01", 0.045], ["2019-01-02", 0.04], ["2019-01-02", 0.04], ["2019-01-02", 0.045], ["2019-01-03", 0.04], ["2019-01... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-12-22 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/530 | The individual mandate is a part of the Affordable Care Act (ACA, or Obamacare) that requires most Americans to have health insurance or pay a penalty. In May 2017, the House passed a bill to “repeal and replace” the ACA with a provision that would end the individual mandate. The issue has moved to the Senate (<a href ... | 2017-12-27 | Before 31 December 2017, will President Trump sign legislation removing the ACA's individual mandate to purchase health insurance? | 2017-07-14 | [["2017-07-14", 0.675], ["2017-07-14", 0.67], ["2017-07-15", 0.725], ["2017-07-16", 0.475], ["2017-07-16", 0.53], ["2017-07-16", 0.58], ["2017-07-17", 0.64], ["2017-07-17", 0.625], ["2017-07-18", 0.55], ["2017-07-18", 0.42], ["2017-07-18", 0.2], ["2017-07-18", 0.05], ["2017-07-18", 0.04], ["2017-07-19", 0.04], ["2017-0... | ["https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-20/trump-is-said-to-plan-tax-signing-jan-3-due-to-technical-issue", "https://www.vanityfair.com/news/photos/2016/02/donald-trumps-short-fingers-a-historical-analysis#16", "https://www.wsj.com/articles/republican-leaders-push-spending-patch-to-avoid-shutdown-1512341550",... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2016-07-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/224 | This question was closed with the answer "No" on 3 August 2016 with an end date of 31 July 2016. Scores are based on forecasts made through 11:59pm Pacific on 30 July 2016. In late July, the IMF's executive board announced that they would not be releasing the next tranche of the loan until at least mid-August (<a href=... | 2016-08-03 | Before 1 August 2016, will the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approve release of the next tranche of its loan to Ukraine? | 2016-06-21 | [["2016-06-21", 0.0], ["2016-06-21", 0.65], ["2016-06-21", 0.725], ["2016-06-21", 0.775], ["2016-06-21", 0.8], ["2016-06-21", 0.815], ["2016-06-21", 0.64], ["2016-06-21", 0.78], ["2016-06-21", 0.8], ["2016-06-21", 0.875], ["2016-06-22", 0.875], ["2016-06-22", 0.83], ["2016-06-22", 0.83], ["2016-06-22", 0.95], ["2016-06... | ["http://www.odessatalk.com/2016/07/ukraine-and-the-imf-where-are-we-at/", "https://www.imf.org/external/NP/SEC/bc/eng/index.aspx", "https://www.gjopen.com/comments/comments/289187", "http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/07/15/15/18/TR071516%20Transcript%20of%20the%20Press%20Briefing%20with%20Gerry%20Rice", "http:/... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/369 | Ahead of the 2016 Warsaw Summit, Poland suspended the small-border-traffic law which allowed visa-free travel into Poland from Ukraine and the Russian city of Kaliningrad (<a href="http://thenews.pl/1/10/Artykul/259971" target = "_blank">Polskie Radio S.A</a>). Poland has since reintroduced the visa-free zone with Ukra... | 2018-01-02 | Will Poland reinstate visa-free travel for Kaliningrad before 2018? | 2016-12-20 | [["2016-12-20", 0.675], ["2016-12-20", 0.05], ["2016-12-20", 0.175], ["2016-12-20", 0.3], ["2016-12-21", 0.275], ["2016-12-21", 0.3], ["2016-12-21", 0.275], ["2016-12-21", 0.195], ["2016-12-21", 0.15], ["2016-12-22", 0.09], ["2016-12-22", 0.06], ["2016-12-22", 0.01], ["2016-12-23", 0.01], ["2016-12-23", 0.03], ["2016-1... | ["http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3875394/US-troops-deployed-Poland-stand-guard-Russia-s-borders-biggest-military-build-Cold-War-Putin-s-attack-DNC-mass-nuclear-drill.html", "http://www.wsj.com/articles/poland-exhumes-president-killed-in-russia-plane-crash-1479145204", "http://m.dw.com/en/no-russian-troops-in-u... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-08-31 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/17 | This question was closed as "B)No" on 31 August 2016. There is no indication that Rouhani and King Salman have met and tensions between the two countries remain high.
Although Saudi Arabia and Iran continue to compete for influence in the Middle East, they have common interests in stabilizing oil prices, controllin... | 2016-09-01 | Will Iran's President Hassan Rouhani meet Saudi Arabia's King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud before 1 September 2016? | 2015-09-07 | [["2015-09-08", 0.25], ["2015-09-09", 0.21], ["2015-09-09", 0.21], ["2015-09-09", 0.15], ["2015-09-10", 0.15], ["2015-09-10", 0.15], ["2015-09-10", 0.14], ["2015-09-10", 0.105], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-11", 0.1], ["2015-09-12", 0.105], ["2015-09-12",... | ["https://www.brookings.edu/blog/markaz/2016/07/13/what-the-iran-deal-has-meant-for-saudi-arabia-and-regional-tensions/", "http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/30/world/middleeast/iran-saudi-arabia-mecca-hajj.html?_r=0", "http://www.politico.eu/article/dont-write-off-saudi-arabia-diplomatic-charm-offensive-brussels-russia-ir... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2017-11-14 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/482 | The three major credit rating agencies are Moody's, Fitch, and S&P. A rating of C by Moody's indicates default (see page 5 of <a href = "https://www.moodys.com/researchdocumentcontentpage.aspx?docid=pbc_79004"target="_blank">Moody's</a>); a rating of RD or D by Fitch indicates default (see page 19 of <a href = "https:... | 2017-11-21 | Before 1 January 2018, will two of the three major credit rating agencies adjust the long-term issuer credit rating of Venezuela or the PDVSA to indicate default? | 2017-05-09 | [["2017-05-09", 0.65], ["2017-05-09", 0.5], ["2017-05-10", 0.525], ["2017-05-10", 0.55], ["2017-05-10", 0.53], ["2017-05-10", 0.51], ["2017-05-11", 0.48], ["2017-05-11", 0.65], ["2017-05-11", 0.425], ["2017-05-12", 0.56], ["2017-05-12", 0.67], ["2017-05-12", 0.67], ["2017-05-12", 0.825], ["2017-05-12", 0.85], ["2017-05... | ["https://www.reuters.com/article/venezuela-bonds-isda/isda-to-reconvene-to-discuss-venezuelas-pdvsa-bond-on-tuesday-idUSL1N1NJ18W", "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aJ69YgvpDo", "https://tradingeconomics.com/venezuela/rating", "http://www.theborneopost.com/2017/11/16/venezuela-selective-default-declared-govt-insists-... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 1.0 |
True | 2018-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/629 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">Early Warning Project</a>). This question is part of a series... | 2019-12-09 | Between 1 October 2017 and 30 September 2018, will an armed group from the Democratic Republic of the Congo engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in the Democratic Republic of the Congo?
| 2017-09-29 | [["2017-09-29", 0.01], ["2017-09-29", 1.0], ["2017-09-29", 0.505], ["2017-09-29", 0.08], ["2017-09-29", 0.075], ["2017-09-30", 0.15], ["2017-09-30", 0.02], ["2017-09-30", 0.02], ["2017-10-01", 0.085], ["2017-10-01", 0.01], ["2017-10-01", 0.01], ["2017-10-01", 0.075], ["2017-10-02", 0.15], ["2017-10-02", 0.3], ["2017-10... | ["http://www.france24.com/en/20171012-presidential-election-dr-congo-delayed-least-until-2019", "https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/20/world/africa/democratic-republic-of-congo-bana-mura.html", "http://ewn.co.za/2017/10/16/26-bodies-of-ambushed-travellers-found-in-eastern-congo-chief", "https://www.globalsecurity.org/mili... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2019-01-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/818 | A lethal confrontation is one that results in one fatality for the military forces, militia, or law enforcement of either side. China has been using People's Liberation Army, Navy, and Air Force, militia, and law enforcement to further its claims in both the South and East China Seas, and some have been posing as fishe... | 2019-01-02 | Will there be a lethal confrontation in the South or East China Sea between the military forces, militia, or law enforcement personnel of China and another country before 1 January 2019? | 2017-12-15 | [["2017-12-15", 0.1], ["2017-12-16", 0.2], ["2017-12-16", 0.075], ["2017-12-16", 0.085], ["2017-12-16", 0.15], ["2017-12-16", 0.11], ["2017-12-17", 0.1], ["2017-12-18", 0.03], ["2017-12-18", 0.05], ["2017-12-19", 0.05], ["2017-12-20", 0.05], ["2017-12-21", 0.04], ["2017-12-22", 0.05], ["2017-12-23", 0.05], ["2017-12-24... | ["http://www.inquirer.net/specials/exclusive-china-militarization-south-china-sea", "https://www.militarynews.com/news/national/us-navy-says-it-won-t-be-deterred-by-chinese/image_c1200e4d-943d-527f-ac5e-b9e4d31940f7.html", "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hainan_Island_incident", "https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/f... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2016-10-16 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/194 | This question was closed on option b ('No') on 16 October, 2016. The absence of reporting on the Lower House/Wolesi Jirga elections scheduled for 15 October after an <a href="http://www.iec.org.af/media-section/press-releases/546-donduct-2016" target="_blank">Independent Election Commission press release</a> forebodin... | 2016-10-18 | Will Afghanistan's parliamentary elections be held as scheduled on 15 October 2016? | 2016-05-03 | [["2016-05-03", 1.0], ["2016-05-03", 0.815], ["2016-05-03", 0.86], ["2016-05-03", 0.855], ["2016-05-03", 0.28], ["2016-05-03", 0.28], ["2016-05-03", 0.25], ["2016-05-04", 0.25], ["2016-05-04", 0.25], ["2016-05-04", 0.25], ["2016-05-04", 0.32], ["2016-05-04", 0.42], ["2016-05-04", 0.42], ["2016-05-04", 0.42], ["2016-05-... | ["http://www.tolonews.com/en/afghanistan/26005-meshrano-jirga-approves-presidents-decree-on-electoral-reforms", "http://thediplomat.com/2016/09/the-coming-political-crisis-in-afghanistan/", "http://hamodia.com/2016/09/01/focus-taliban-makes-gains-afghan-politicians-bicker-kabul/", "http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nat... | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
True | 2018-10-01 | https://www.gjopen.com/questions/975 | The EWP is asking forecasters to help provide early risk assessments to policy makers, NGOs, and other international actors about the systematic killing of civilians resulting in mass fatalities (<a href = "https://www.earlywarningproject.org"target="_blank">The EWP</a>). This question is part of a series of quarterly ... | 2019-12-09 | Between 1 July 2018 and 30 June 2019, will an armed group from Nigeria engage in a campaign that systematically kills 1,000 or more civilians in Nigeria? | 2018-06-27 | [["2018-06-27", 0.97], ["2018-06-27", 0.85], ["2018-06-27", 0.745], ["2018-06-27", 0.32], ["2018-06-27", 0.16], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-28", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.05], ["2018-06-29", 0.18], ["2018-06-29", 0.18], ["2018-06-... | {} | binary | Not applicable/available for this question. | gjopen | 0.0 |
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