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Climate Change 2023
Synthesis Report
IPCC, 2023: Sections. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC,
Geneva, Switzerland, pp. 35-115,... |
37
Section 1
Introduction |
38
Section 1
Section 1
This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread
impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation, based
on the peer-reviewed scientific, technical and socio-economic literature
since the p... |
Different
regional classification schemes61 are used for physical, social and
economic aspects, reflecting the underlying literature.
After this introduction, Section 2, ‘Current Status and Trends’, opens
with the assessment of observational evidence for our changing
climate, historical and current drivers of human-i... |
The Special Reports cover scientific literature
accepted for publication respectively by 15 May 2018, 7 April 2019 and 15 May 2019.
60
The Glossary (Annex I) includes definitions of these, and other terms and concepts used in this report drawn from the AR6 joint Working Group Glossary.
61
Depending on the climate info... |
The following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or result: virtually certain
99–100% probability; very likely 90–100%; likely 66–100%; more likely than not >50-100%; about as likely as not 33–66%; unlikely 0–33%; very unlikely 0–10%; and
exceptionally unlikely 0–1%. Additional ter... |
39
Introduction
Section 1
Figure 1.1: The Synthesis Report figures key.
Italicized ‘annotations’
Simple explanations written
in non-technical language
Axis labels
Synthesis Report
figures key
these help non-experts
navigate complex content
GHG emissions
Temperature
Cost or budget
Net zero
°C
net zero |
40 |
41
Section 2
Current Status and Trends |
42
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
2.1 Observed Changes, Impacts and Attribution
Human activities, principally through emissions of greenhouse gases, have unequivocally caused global warming,
with global surface temperature reaching 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in 2011–2020. Global greenhouse gas emissions
have continued to i... |
Observed Warming and its Causes
Global surface temperature was around 1.1°C above 1850–1900 in
2011–2020 (1.09 [0.95 to 1.20]°C)64, with larger increases
over land (1.59 [1.34 to 1.83]°C) than over the ocean
(0.88 [0.68 to 1.01]°C)65. Observed warming is human-caused, with
warming from greenhouse gases (GHG), domin... |
It is likely that well-mixed GHGs67 contributed a warming
of 1.0°C to 2.0°C, and other human drivers (principally aerosols)
contributed a cooling of 0.0°C to 0.8°C, natural (solar and volcanic)
drivers changed global surface temperature by ±0.1°C and internal
variability changed it by ±0.2°C. {WGI SPM A.1, WGI SPM ... |
Additionally, methodological
advances and new datasets have provided a more complete spatial representation of changes in surface temperature, including in the Arctic. These and other improvements
have also increased the estimate of global surface temperature change by approximately 0.1°C, but this increase does not ... |
68
For 2021 (the most recent year for which final numbers are available) concentrations using the same observational products and methods as in AR6 WGI are: 415 ppm CO2;
1896 ppb CH4; and 335 ppb N2O. Note that the CO2 is reported here using the WMO-CO2-X2007 scale to be consistent with WGI. Operational CO2 reporting ... |
43
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
Increased concentrations
of GHGs in the atmosphere
Increased emissions of
greenhouse gases (GHGs)
b)
a)
c) Changes in global surface temperature
Carbon dioxide
Methane
d) Humans are responsible
0
15
30
45
60
400
350
300
1000
1500
500
–0.5
–1.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
Observed
–0.5... |
Land-Use
Change and
Forestry
(LULUCF)
warmest
multi-century
period in more
than 100,000
years
410 ppm CO2
1866 ppb CH4
332 ppb N2O
200
400 Parts per billion (ppb)
Nitrous oxide
°C
0
0.5
1
1.5
Key
*Other human drivers are predominantly cooling aerosols, but also
warming aerosols, land-use change (land-use reflect... |
These emissions have led to increases in the atmospheric
concentrations of several GHGs including the three major well-mixed
GHGs CO2, CH4 and N2O (panel (b), annual values). To indicate their
relative importance each subpanel’s vertical extent for CO2, CH4 and
N2O is scaled to match the assessed individual direct ... |
Prior to that, the next most recent warm period
was about 125,000 years ago, when the assessed multi-century
temperature range [0.5°C to 1.5°C] overlaps the observations of
the most recent decade. These past warm periods were caused
by slow (multi-millennial) orbital variations. Formal detection and
attribution st... |
44
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
Average annual GHG emissions during 2010–2019 were higher
than in any previous decade, but the rate of growth between
2010 and 2019 (1.3% yr-1) was lower than that between 2000
and 2009 (2.1% yr-1)69. Historical cumulative net CO2 emissions from
1850 to 2019 were 2400 ±240 GtCO2. Of... |
(high confidence)
{WGIII SPM B1.1, WGIII SPM B.1.2, WGIII SPM B.1.3, WGIII Figure SPM.1,
WGIII Figure SPM.2}
Regional contributions to global human-caused GHG emissions
continue to differ widely. Historical contributions of CO2 emissions
vary substantially across regions in terms of total magnitude, but also
in te... |
Around 48% of the global population in 2019 lives in countries
emitting on average more than 6 tCO2-eq per capita, 35% of the global
population live in countries emitting more than 9 tCO2-eq per capita70
(excluding CO2-LULUCF) while another 41% live in countries emitting less
than 3 tCO2-eq per capita. A substantia... |
Average annual GHG emissions growth between
69
GHG emission metrics are used to express emissions of different GHGs in a common unit. Aggregated GHG emissions in this report are stated in CO2-equivalents (CO2-eq) using
the Global Warming Potential with a time horizon of 100 years (GWP100) with values based on the co... |
{WGIII SPM footnote 8}
72
Comprising a gross sink of -12.5 (±3.2) GtCO2 yr-1 resulting from responses of all land to both anthropogenic environmental change and natural climate variability, and
net anthropogenic CO2-LULUCF emissions +5.9 (±4.1) GtCO2 yr-1 based on book-keeping models. {WGIII SPM Footnote 14}
73
This... |
Land overall constituted a net sink of –6.6 (±4.6) GtCO2 yr–1 for the period
2010–201972 (medium confidence). {WGIII SPM B.2, WGIII SPM B.2.1,
WGIII SPM B.2.2, WGIII TS 5.6.1}
Human-caused climate change is a consequence of more than
a century of net GHG emissions from energy use, land-use and
land use change, life... |
45
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
Key
Population (millions)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
0
5
10
15
20
Middle East
Africa
Eastern Asia
South-East Asia and Pacific
Latin America and Caribbean
Europe
Southern Asia
North America
Australia, Japan and New Zealand
Eastern Europe and West-Central Asia
Africa
Australia, Japan... |
6
1.6
Consumption-based emissions (tCO2FFI per person, based on 2018 data)
0.84
11
6.7
6.2
7.8
2.8
7.6
17
2.5
1.5
Population (million persons, 2019)
1292
157
1471
291
620
646
252
366
674
1836
GHG per capita (tCO2-eq per person)
3.9
13
11
13
7.8
9.2
13
19
7.9
2.6
GDP per capita (USD1000PPP 2017 per person) 1
5.0
43
17
2... |
2
Net GHG 2019 2 (production basis)
CO2FFI, 2018, per person
GHG emissions intensity (tCO2-eq / USD1000PPP 2017)
0.78
0.30
0.62
0.64
0.18
0.61
0.64
0.31
0.65
0.42
Africa
Australia,
Japan,
New
Zealand
Eastern
Asia
Eastern
Europe,
West-
Central Asia
Europe
Latin
America
and
Caribbean
Middle
East
North
America... |
46
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
Figure 2.2: Regional GHG emissions, and the regional proportion of total cumulative production-based CO2 emissions from 1850 to 2019. Panel (a) shows the
share of historical cumulative net anthropogenic CO2 emissions per region from 1850 to 2019 in GtCO2. This includes CO2-FFI and CO2-... |
The height of each rectangle shows per capita emissions, the width shows the population of the region, so that the area of the rectangles
refers to the total emissions for each region. Emissions from international aviation and shipping are not included. In the case of two regions, the area for CO2-LULUCF is below the ... |
Emissions from international aviation and shipping are not included. {WGIII Figure SPM.2}
2.1.2. Observed Climate System Changes and Impacts to
Date
It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the
atmosphere, ocean and land. Widespread and rapid changes in
the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have oc... |
Global mean sea level increased by 0.20
[0.15 to 0.25] m between 1901 and 2018. The average rate of sea level
rise was 1.3 [0.6 to 2.1]mm yr-1 between 1901 and 1971, increasing to
1.9 [0.8 to 2.9] mm yr-1 between 1971 and 2006, and further increasing
to 3.7 [3.2 to –4.2] mm yr-1 between 2006 and 2018 (high confidenc... |
It is
virtually certain that human-caused CO2 emissions are the main driver
of current global acidification of the surface open ocean. {WGI SPM A.1,
WGI SPM A.1.3, WGI SPM A.1.5, WGI SPM A.1.6, WG1 SPM A1.7,
WGI SPM A.2, WG1.SPM A.4.2; SROCC SPM.A.1, SROCC SPM A.2}
Human-caused climate change is already affecting ma... |
Marine heatwaves have approximately doubled
74
‘Main driver’ means responsible for more than 50% of the change. {WGI SPM footnote 12}
75
See Annex I: Glossary.
in frequency since the 1980s (high confidence), and human influence
has very likely contributed to most of them since at least 2006. The
frequency and intens... |
A.2}
Climate change has caused substantial damages, and increasingly
irreversible75 losses, in terrestrial, freshwater, cryospheric and
coastal and open ocean ecosystems (high confidence). The extent
and magnitude of climate change impacts are larger than estimated
in previous assessments (high confidence). Approxima... |
Impacts in ecosystems
from slow-onset processes such as ocean acidification, sea level rise
or regional decreases in precipitation have also been attributed to
human-caused climate change (high confidence). Climate change
has contributed to desertification and exacerbated land degradation,
particularly in low lying c... |
47
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
Table 2.1: Assessment of observed changes in large-scale indicators of mean climate across climate system components, and their attribution to human
influence. The colour coding indicates the assessed confidence in / likelihood76 of the observed change and the human contribution as... |
47
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
Table 2.1: Assessment of observed changes in large-scale indicators of mean climate across climate system components, and their attribution to human
influence. The colour coding indicates the assessed confidence in / likelihood76 of the observed change and the human contribution as... |
48
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
Climate change has impacted human and natural systems across the
world with those who have generally least contributed to climate
change being most vulnerable
a) Synthesis of assessment of observed change in hot extremes, heavy precipitation and
drought, and confidence in human contri... |
SES
(South-Eastern South America), SSA
(Southern South America), Europe: GIC
(Greenland/Iceland), NEU (Northern Europe),
WCE (Western and Central Europe), EEU
(Eastern Europe), MED (Mediterranean),
Africa: MED (Mediterranean), SAH (Sahara),
WAF (Western Africa), CAF (Central Africa),
NEAF (North Eastern Africa)... |
WCA (West Central Asia),
ECA (East Central Asia), TIB (Tibetan
Plateau), EAS (East Asia), ARP (Arabian
Peninsula), SAS (South Asia), SEA (South East
Asia), Australasia: NAU (Northern Australia),
CAU (Central Australia), EAU (Eastern
Australia), SAU (Southern Australia), NZ
(New Zealand), Small Islands: CAR
(Car... |
SEAF
CAU
EAU
SWS
SES
ESAF
SAU
NZ
SSA
MDG
PAC
Africa
Asia
Australasia
North
America
Central
America
South
America
Europe
Small
Islands
Small
Islands
NWN
NEN
GIC
NEU
RAR
WNA
CNA
ENA
WCE
EEU
WSB
ESB
RFE
NCA
MED
WCA
ECA
TIB
EAS
SCA
CAR
SAH
ARP
SAS
SEA
NWS
NSA
WAF
CAF
NEAF
NAU
SAM
NES
WSAF SEAF
CAU
EAU
SWS
SES
ESAF
SAU
NZ
S... |
49
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
Terrestrial
Freshwater
Ocean
Changes in
ecosystem structure
Terrestrial
Freshwater
Ocean
Species range shifts
Terrestrial
Freshwater
Ocean
Changes in seasonal
timing (phenology)
Water availability
and food production
Health and wellbeing
Cities, settlements
and infrastructure
... |
50
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
Climate change has reduced food security and affected water
security due to warming, changing precipitation patterns,
reduction and loss of cryospheric elements, and greater frequency
and intensity of climatic extremes, thereby hindering efforts to
meet Sustainable Development Goals... |
Roughly half of the world’s population currently experiences severe water
scarcity for at least some part of the year due to a combination of climatic
and non-climatic drivers (medium confidence) (Figure 2.3). Unsustainable
agricultural expansion, driven in part by unbalanced diets77, increases
ecosystem and human v... |
6; SRCCL SPM A.2.8, SRCCL SPM A.5.3; SROCC SPM A.5.4.,
SROCC SPM A.7.1, SROCC SPM A.8.1, SROCC Figure SPM.2}
77
Balanced diets feature plant-based foods, such as those based on coarse grains, legumes fruits and vegetables, nuts and seeds, and animal-source foods produced in resilient,
sustainable and low-GHG emissi... |
{WGII SPM footnote 29}
In urban settings, climate change has caused adverse impacts on
human health, livelihoods and key infrastructure (high confidence).
Hot extremes including heatwaves have intensified in cities (high
confidence), where they have also worsened air pollution events
(medium confidence) and limited fun... |
{WGI SPM C.2.6; WGII SPM B.1.5, WGII Figure TS.9,
WGII 6 ES}
Climate change has adversely affected human physical health globally
and mental health in assessed regions (very high confidence), and is
contributing to humanitarian crises where climate hazards interact
with high vulnerability (high confidence). In all re... |
Panel (a) The IPCC AR6 WGI inhabited regions are displayed as hexagons with identical size
in their approximate geographical location (see legend for regional acronyms). All assessments are made for each region as a whole and for the 1950s to the present. Assessments made
on different time scales or more local spatia... |
For hot extremes, the evidence
is mostly drawn from changes in metrics based on daily maximum temperatures; regional studies using other indices (heatwave duration, frequency and intensity) are used in addition. For
heavy precipitation, the evidence is mostly drawn from changes in indices based on one-day or five-day ... |
Panel (c) Observed impacts on ecosystems
and human systems attributed to climate change at global and regional scales. Global assessments focus on large studies, multi-species, meta-analyses and large reviews. Regional
assessments consider evidence on impacts across an entire region and do not focus on any country in... |
51
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
(high confidence) (Figure 2.3). Climate change impacts on health are
mediated through natural and human systems, including economic
and social conditions and disruptions (high confidence). Climate and
weather extremes are increasingly driving displacement in Africa,
Asia, North ... |
Compound extreme events include increases in the
frequency of concurrent heatwaves and droughts (high confidence); fire
weather in some regions (medium confidence); and compound flooding in
some locations (medium confidence). Multiple risks interact, generating
new sources of vulnerability to climate hazards, and compou... |
Individual livelihoods have been
affected through changes in agricultural productivity, impacts on human
health and food security, destruction of homes and infrastructure, and loss
of property and income, with adverse effects on gender and social equity
(high confidence). Tropical cyclones have reduced economic grow... |
Cultural losses, related
80
See Annex 1: Glossary.
81
Governance: The structures, processes and actions through which private and public actors interact to address societal goals. This includes formal and informal institutions and
the associated norms, rules, laws and procedures for deciding, managing, implementin... |
LDCs and SIDS who have much
lower per capita emissions (1.7 tCO2-eq, 4.6 tCO2-eq, respectively) than
the global average (6.9 tCO2-eq) excluding CO2-LULUCF, also have high
vulnerability to climatic hazards, with global hotspots of high human
vulnerability observed in West-, Central- and East Africa, South Asia,
Cen... |
Between 2010 and
2020, human mortality from floods, droughts and storms was 15 times
higher in highly vulnerable regions, compared to regions with very low
vulnerability (high confidence). In the Arctic and in some high mountain
regions, negative impacts of cryosphere change have been especially felt
among Indigenou... |
52
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
International climate agreements, rising national ambitions for climate action, along with rising public awareness
are accelerating efforts to address climate change at multiple levels of governance. Mitigation policies have
contributed to a decrease in global energy and carbon intens... |
The Paris Agreement, adopted under the UNFCCC, with
near universal participation, has led to policy development and
target-setting at national and sub-national levels, particularly in
relation to mitigation but also for adaptation, as well as enhanced
transparency of climate action and support (medium confidence). ... |
In addition, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable
Development, adopted in 2015 by UN member states, sets out 17
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and seeks to align efforts
globally to prioritise ending extreme poverty, protect the planet and
promote more peaceful, prosperous and inclusive societies. If achieved,
th... |
Engaging
Indigenous Peoples and local communities using just-transition and
rights-based decision-making approaches, implemented through
collective and participatory decision-making processes has enabled
deeper ambition and accelerated action in different ways, and at all
scales, depending on national circumstance... |
Mitigation Actions to Date
There has been a consistent expansion of policies and laws
addressing mitigation since AR5 (high confidence). Climate
governance supports mitigation by providing frameworks through
which diverse actors interact, and a basis for policy development and
implementation (medium confidence). Many... |
53
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
than single policies (high confidence). Combining mitigation with
policies to shift development pathways, policies that induce lifestyle or
behaviour changes, for example, measures promoting walkable urban
areas combined with electrification and renewable energy can create
healt... |
Design and process innovations in
combination with the use of digital technologies have led to
near-commercial availability of many low or zero emissions
options in buildings, transport and industry. From 2010-2019,
there have been sustained decreases in the unit costs of solar energy
(by 85%), wind energy (by 55%... |
Integrated design
in construction and retrofit of buildings has led to increasing examples
of zero energy or zero carbon buildings. Technological innovation
made possible the widespread adoption of LED lighting. Digital
technologies including sensors, the internet of things, robotics, and
artificial intelligence can... |
Annual tracked total financial flows for climate mitigation and
adaptation increased by up to 60% between 2013/14 and 2019/20,
but average growth has slowed since 2018 (medium confidence) and
most climate finance stays within national borders (high confidence).
Markets for green bonds, environmental, social and governan... |
By 2020,
over 20% of global GHG emissions were covered by carbon taxes or
emissions trading systems, although coverage and prices have been
insufficient to achieve deep reductions (medium confidence). Equity and
distributional impacts of carbon pricing instruments can be addressed
by using revenue from carbon taxes ... |
While global net GHG emissions have increased since
2010, global energy intensity (total primary energy per unit GDP)
decreased by 2% yr–1 between 2010 and 2019. Global carbon
intensity (CO2-FFI per unit primary energy) also decreased by 0.3%
yr–1, mainly due to fuel switching from coal to gas, reduced expansion
o... |
54
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
Market cost, with range
Adoption (note different scales)
Fossil fuel cost (2020)
Passenger
electric vehicle
Photovoltaics
(PV)
Onshore
wind
Offshore
wind
Key
a) Market Cost
b) Market Adoption
Renewable electricity generation
is increasingly price-competitive
and some sectors are e... |
The top panel (a) shows global costs per unit of energy (USD per MWh)
for some rapidly changing mitigation technologies. Solid blue lines indicate average unit cost in each year. Light blue shaded areas show the range between the 5th and 95th
percentiles in each year. Yellow shading indicates the range of unit costs ... |
55
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
At least 1.8 GtCO2-eq yr–1 of avoided emissions can be accounted for
by aggregating separate estimates for the effects of economic and
regulatory instruments (medium confidence). Growing numbers of
laws and executive orders have impacted global emissions and are
estimated to ha... |
Various tools, measures and processes are available
that can enable, accelerate and sustain adaptation implementation
(high confidence). Growing public and political awareness of climate
impacts and risks has resulted in at least 170 countries and many cities
including adaptation in their climate policies and planni... |
Some land-related adaptation actions such as sustainable
food production, improved and sustainable forest management,
soil organic carbon management, ecosystem conservation and land
restoration, reduced deforestation and degradation, and reduced
food loss and waste are being undertaken, and can have mitigation
co-... |
85
See Annex I: Glossary.
86
Irrigation is effective in reducing drought risk and climate impacts in many regions and has several livelihood benefits, but needs appropriate management to avoid potential
adverse outcomes, which can include accelerated depletion of groundwater and other water sources and increased so... |
{WGII SPM C1.1}
Globally tracked adaptation finance has shown an upward trend
since AR5, but represents only a small portion of total climate
finance, is uneven and has developed heterogeneously across
regions and sectors (high confidence). Adaptation finance has come
predominantly from public sources, largely through... |
{WGII SPM C.3.2, WGII SPM C.5.4;
WGII TS.D.1.6, WGII Cross-Chapter Box FINANCE; WGIII SPM E.5.4}
There are adaptation options which are effective84 in reducing
climate risks85 for specific contexts, sectors and regions and
contribute positively to sustainable development and other
societal goals. In the agriculture ... |
56
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
wetlands, rangelands, mangroves and forests); while afforestation and
reforestation, restoration of high-carbon ecosystems, agroforestry, and
the reclamation of degraded soils take more time to deliver measurable
results. Significant synergies exist between adaptation and mitigation, ... |
Heat Health Action Plans that include early warning and
response systems are effective adaptation options for extreme heat
(high confidence). Effective adaptation options for water, food and
vector-borne diseases include improving access to potable water,
reducing exposure of water and sanitation systems to extreme ... |
57
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
2.3 Current Mitigation and Adaptation Actions and Policies are not Sufficient
At the time of the present assessment88 there are gaps between global ambitions and the sum of declared
national ambitions. These are further compounded by gaps between declared national ambitions and cu... |
(high confidence)
88
The timing of various cut-offs for assessment differs by WG report and the aspect assessed. See footnote 1 in Section 1.
89
See CSB.2 for a discussion of scenarios and pathways.
90
See Annex I: Glossary.
2.3.1. The Gap Between Mitigation Policies, Pledges and
Pathways that Limit Warming to 1.5°C... |
Modelled pathways that are consistent
with NDCs announced prior to COP26 until 2030 and assume no
increase in ambition thereafter have higher emissions, leading
88
The timing of various cut-offs for assessment differs by WG report and the aspect assessed. See footnote 58 in Section 1.
89
See CSB.2 for a discussion... |
{WGIII SPM footnote 26}
93
In this report, ‘unconditional’ elements of NDCs refer to mitigation efforts put forward without any conditions. ‘Conditional’ elements refer to mitigation efforts that are
contingent on international cooperation, for example bilateral and multilateral agreements, financing or monetary and/o... |
{WGIII SPM B.6, WGIII SPM B.6.1, WGIII SPM B.6.3,
WGIII SPM B.6.4, WGIII SPM C.1.1}
Policies implemented by the end of 2020 are projected to result in
higher global GHG emissions in 2030 than those implied by NDCs,
indicating an ‘implementation gap94’ (high confidence) (Table 2.2,
Figure 2.5). Projected global emiss... |
58
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
Projected cumulative future CO2 emissions over the lifetime of existing
fossil fuel infrastructure without additional abatement95 exceed the
total cumulative net CO2 emissions in pathways that limit warming to
1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot. They are approximately
equal t... |
{WGI Table SPM.2}
Table 2.2 Projected global emissions in 2030 associated with policies implemented by the end of 2020 and NDCs announced prior to COP26, and associated
emissions gaps. Emissions projections for 2030 and gross differences in emissions are based on emissions of 52–56 GtCO2-eq yr–1 in 2019 as assumed in ... |
(medium confidence) {WGIII Table SPM.1} (Table 3.1, Cross-Section Box.2)
95
Abatement here refers to human interventions that reduce the amount of GHGs that are released from fossil fuel infrastructure to the atmosphere. {WGIII SPM footnote 34}
96
WGI provides carbon budgets that are in line with limiting global warm... |
59
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
a) Global GHG emissions
b) 2030
10
20
30
0
40
50
60
70
10
20
30
0
40
50
60
70
GHG emissions (GtCO2-eq/yr)
2020
2025
2015
2010
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Limit warming to 2ºC (>67%)
or 1.5 (>50%) after high
overshoot with NDCs until 2030
Trend from implemented policies
2019
Limit war... |
Panel a shows global GHG emissions over 2015-2050 for four types of assessed modelled global pathways:
- Trend from implemented policies: Pathways with projected near-term GHG emissions in line with policies implemented until the end of 2020 and extended with comparable
ambition levels beyond 2030 (29 scenarios acro... |
- Limit to 1.5°C (>50%) with no or limited overshoot: Pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot (C1, WGIII Table SPM.2 C1).
All these pathways assume immediate action after 2020. Past GHG emissions for 2010-2015 used to project global warming outcomes of the modelled pathways are shown by a
blac... |
60
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
Cross-Section Box.1: Understanding Net Zero CO2 and Net Zero GHG Emissions
Limiting human-caused global warming to a specific level requires limiting cumulative CO2 emissions, reaching net zero or net negative
CO2 emissions, along with strong reductions in other GHG emissions (see 3.3.... |
{WGI SPM D.1.8; WGIII Box TS.6, WGIII Cross-Chapter Box 2}
Achieving global net zero GHG emissions requires all remaining CO2 and metric-weighted98 non-CO2 GHG emissions to be
counterbalanced by durably stored CO2 removals (high confidence). Some non-CO2 emissions, such as CH4 and N2O from agriculture,
cannot be fully... |
(high confidence) {WGIII Box TS.6, WGIII Cross-Chapter Box 3}
The adoption and implementation of net zero emission targets by countries and regions also depend on equity and capacity
considerations (high confidence). The formulation of net zero pathways by countries will benefit from clarity on scope, plans-of-action, an... |
61
Current Status and Trends
Section 2
Many countries have signalled an intention to achieve net
zero GHG or net zero CO2 emissions by around mid-century
(Cross-Section Box.1). More than 100 countries have either adopted,
announced or are discussing net zero GHG or net zero CO2 emissions
commitments, covering more ... |
Current development pathways may create behavioural,
spatial, economic and social barriers to accelerated mitigation at all
scales (high confidence). Choices made by policymakers, citizens, the
private sector and other stakeholders influence societies’ development
pathways (high confidence). Structural factors of nati... |
Low-emission innovation along
with strengthened enabling conditions can reinforce development
benefits, which can, in turn, create feedbacks towards greater public
support for policy (medium confidence). Persistent and region-specific
barriers also continue to hamper the economic and political feasibility
of deployin... |
101 Maladaptation refers to actions that may lead to increased risk of adverse climate-related outcomes, including via increased greenhouse gas emissions, increased or shifted vulnerability
to climate change, more inequitable outcomes, or diminished welfare, now or in the future. Most often, maladaptation is an uninte... |
Many funding, knowledge and practice gaps remain for effective
implementation, monitoring and evaluation and current adaptation
efforts are not expected to meet existing goals (high confidence).
At current rates of adaptation planning and implementation the
adaptation gap will continue to grow (high confidence). {WGI... |
Transitioning from incremental to
transformational adaptation can help overcome soft adaptation limits
(high confidence). {WGII SPM C.3, WGII SPM C.3.1, WGII SPM C.3.2,
WGII SPM C.3.3, WGII SPM.C.3.4, WGII 16 ES}
Adaptation does not prevent all losses and damages, even with
effective adaptation and before reaching s... |
62
Section 2
Section 1
Section 2
fire-adapted ecosystems, or hard defences against flooding) and human
settlements (e.g. stranded assets and vulnerable communities that
cannot afford to shift away or adapt and require an increase in social
safety nets). Maladaptation especially affects marginalised and vulnerable
gro... |
Inequity and poverty also constrain
adaptation, leading to soft limits and resulting in disproportionate
exposure and impacts for most vulnerable groups (high confidence). The
largest adaptation gaps exist among lower income population groups
(high confidence). As adaptation options often have long implementation
ti... |
YAML Metadata Warning:The task_categories "text2text-generation" is not in the official list: text-classification, token-classification, table-question-answering, question-answering, zero-shot-classification, translation, summarization, feature-extraction, text-generation, fill-mask, sentence-similarity, text-to-speech, text-to-audio, automatic-speech-recognition, audio-to-audio, audio-classification, audio-text-to-text, voice-activity-detection, depth-estimation, image-classification, object-detection, image-segmentation, text-to-image, image-to-text, image-to-image, image-to-video, unconditional-image-generation, video-classification, reinforcement-learning, robotics, tabular-classification, tabular-regression, tabular-to-text, table-to-text, multiple-choice, text-ranking, text-retrieval, time-series-forecasting, text-to-video, image-text-to-text, image-text-to-image, image-text-to-video, visual-question-answering, document-question-answering, zero-shot-image-classification, graph-ml, mask-generation, zero-shot-object-detection, text-to-3d, image-to-3d, image-feature-extraction, video-text-to-text, keypoint-detection, visual-document-retrieval, any-to-any, video-to-video, other
Dataset Card for GTimothee/my-knowledge-base
This repository was created using the giskard library, an open-source Python framework designed to evaluate and test AI systems.
This dataset comprises a giskard's KnowledgeBase containing 310 documents. If embeddings were generated before the saving process, they are included and will be automatically loaded into a vector store when required.
Usage
You can load this knowledge base using the following code:
from giskard.rag import KnowledgeBase
kb = KnowledgeBase.load_from_hf_hub("GTimothee/my-knowledge-base")
Configuration
The configuration details for this Knowledge Base (can also be found in the config.json file):
{
"columns": null,
"chunk_size": 2048,
"min_topic_size": 8,
"language": "en",
"seed": null,
"embedding_model": null
}
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