data/explanatory_case_cards.md

Explanatory Case Cards

Case 1: Population/Reporting Geography

Observed public report counts track place population with log-scale correlation 0.641288.

What we can claim: report density has a measurable relationship with population geography.

What we cannot claim: population alone explains any individual report.

Case 2: Major-Airport Proximity

Median event-place centroid distance to a major scheduled airport is 13.277 miles, compared with 10.764 miles population-weighted across Census places.

What we can claim: airport proximity is a measurable confounder for the public report surface.

What we cannot claim: aircraft caused all or any specific reports without case-level evidence.

Case 3: Missing Geocode Rows

17783 U.S. rows did not resolve to Census place centroids in this pass.

What we can claim: skipped rows are explicitly counted and bucketed for recovery.

What we cannot claim: the skipped rows would not affect any future recovered-location analysis.

Top Places By Public Report Count

• New York city, NY: 858 rows; population 8804190; 9.745 rows per 100k.
• Phoenix city, AZ: 781 rows; population 1608139; 48.565 rows per 100k.
• Seattle city, WA: 774 rows; population 737015; 105.018 rows per 100k.
• Las Vegas city, NV: 658 rows; population 641903; 102.508 rows per 100k.
• Portland city, OR: 580 rows; population 652503; 88.888 rows per 100k.
• Los Angeles city, CA: 572 rows; population 3898747; 14.671 rows per 100k.
• San Diego city, CA: 553 rows; population 1386932; 39.872 rows per 100k.
• Chicago city, IL: 443 rows; population 2746388; 16.13 rows per 100k.