nuclear-uap-evidence-surface / data /explanatory_assessment.json
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Publish nuclear UAP evidence surface
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{
"assessment_version": "nuclear_uap_explanatory_private_preview_v1",
"population_explanation_strength_score": 78,
"airport_confounder_strength_score": 90,
"nuclear_non_support_strength_score": 95,
"missing_geocode_handling": {
"analysis_status": "completed",
"total_us_rows": 123013,
"missing_geocode_rows": 17783,
"missing_geocode_share": 0.144562,
"reason_bucket_counts": {
"unmatched_place_name": 14584,
"landmark_or_route_location": 1351,
"compound_or_parenthetical_place": 1059,
"county_level_location": 340,
"relative_location_phrase": 270,
"blank_city": 179
},
"generated_utc": "2026-04-29T01:25:15+00:00",
"safe_handling": "Missing geocodes are not imputed into the spatial tests. They are counted and routed to explicit recovery paths."
},
"what_we_can_claim": [
"The missing NUFORC-derived rows were not geocoded by assumption; they were excluded from spatial tests and logged for recovery.",
"The public geocoded report rows can be compared against Census place population and commercial-airport proximity as explanatory covariates.",
"At the place level, report counts can be assessed against population concentration without claiming reports are true or false.",
"Airport proximity can be treated as a public-source confounder, not as proof that airplanes caused specific reports.",
"The nuclear power-plant proximity claim remains unsupported in this evidence surface after matched non-nuclear power-plant controls."
],
"what_we_cannot_claim": [
"This dataset cannot prove what witnesses saw.",
"This dataset cannot claim aircraft explain every report.",
"This dataset cannot treat city/place centroids as exact sighting coordinates.",
"This dataset cannot rule out all nuclear-weapons, military, or classified-site hypotheses.",
"This dataset cannot assume the skipped missing-geocode rows would preserve or reverse the result without a separate recovery run."
],
"safe_claim_language_passes": true,
"plain_english_assessment": "The better explanation surface is population/reporting geography plus ordinary aviation proximity, while the nuclear-specific proximity claim remains unsupported after controls."
}