test/target_config.yaml

include:
  # === DISTRICT — age demographics ===
  - variable: person_count
    geo_level: district
    domain_variable: age

  # === DISTRICT — count targets ===
  # REMOVED: person_count by AGI — filer-gated, all AGI bins 100% underestimated
  - variable: household_count
    geo_level: district

  # === DISTRICT — dollar targets (all <8% mean error, restored) ===
  - variable: real_estate_taxes
    geo_level: district
  - variable: self_employment_income
    geo_level: district
  - variable: taxable_pension_income
    geo_level: district
  - variable: refundable_ctc
    geo_level: district
  - variable: unemployment_compensation
    geo_level: district

  # === DISTRICT — ACA PTC (2% mean error, restored) ===
  - variable: aca_ptc
    geo_level: district
  - variable: tax_unit_count
    geo_level: district
    domain_variable: aca_ptc

  # === STATE ===
  - variable: person_count
    geo_level: state
    domain_variable: medicaid_enrolled
  # REMOVED: is_pregnant — 100% unachievable across all 51 state geos
  - variable: snap
    geo_level: state

  # === NATIONAL — aggregate dollar targets ===
  # REMOVED: adjusted_gross_income — filer-gated
  - variable: child_support_expense
    geo_level: national
  - variable: child_support_received
    geo_level: national
  # REMOVED: eitc — filer-gated
  - variable: health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b
    geo_level: national
  - variable: medicaid
    geo_level: national
  - variable: medicare_part_b_premiums
    geo_level: national
  - variable: other_medical_expenses
    geo_level: national
  - variable: over_the_counter_health_expenses
    geo_level: national
  # REMOVED: qualified_business_income_deduction — filer-gated
  - variable: rent
    geo_level: national
  # REMOVED: salt_deduction — 11.3x overestimate, worst variable in model
  - variable: snap
    geo_level: national
  - variable: social_security
    geo_level: national
  - variable: social_security_disability
    geo_level: national
  - variable: social_security_retirement
    geo_level: national
  - variable: spm_unit_capped_housing_subsidy
    geo_level: national
  - variable: spm_unit_capped_work_childcare_expenses
    geo_level: national
  - variable: ssi
    geo_level: national
  - variable: tanf
    geo_level: national
  # REMOVED: tip_income — filer-gated
  - variable: unemployment_compensation
    geo_level: national

  # === NATIONAL — IRS SOI domain-constrained dollar targets (restored: |rel_err| < 15%) ===
  - variable: aca_ptc
    geo_level: national
    domain_variable: aca_ptc
  - variable: net_capital_gains
    geo_level: national
    domain_variable: net_capital_gains
  - variable: refundable_ctc
    geo_level: national
    domain_variable: refundable_ctc
  - variable: self_employment_income
    geo_level: national
    domain_variable: self_employment_income
  - variable: tax_unit_partnership_s_corp_income
    geo_level: national
    domain_variable: tax_unit_partnership_s_corp_income
  - variable: taxable_pension_income
    geo_level: national
    domain_variable: taxable_pension_income
  - variable: unemployment_compensation
    geo_level: national
    domain_variable: unemployment_compensation
  # REMOVED (|rel_err| > 15% or tension with counts):
  #   adjusted_gross_income (28%), dividend_income (26%, tension), eitc (23%),
  #   eitc by child_count (14-77%, tension), income_tax_before_credits (21%),
  #   income_tax_positive (22%), qualified_business_income_deduction (55-63%),
  #   qualified_dividend_income (29%, tension), rental_income (20%),
  #   salt (102%), salt_deduction (1130%), tax_exempt_interest_income (61%),
  #   taxable_interest_income (61%), taxable_ira_distributions (68%),
  #   taxable_social_security (55%)

  # === NATIONAL — IRS SOI filer count targets (restored: |rel_err| < 10%) ===
  - variable: tax_unit_count
    geo_level: national
    domain_variable: aca_ptc
  - variable: tax_unit_count
    geo_level: national
    domain_variable: refundable_ctc
  # REMOVED (|rel_err| > 10%): all other filer count targets (22-706% error)