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test/target_config.yaml

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+
+include:
+  # === DISTRICT — age demographics ===
+  - variable: person_count
+    geo_level: district
+    domain_variable: age
+
+  # === DISTRICT — count targets ===
+  # REMOVED: person_count by AGI — filer-gated, all AGI bins 100% underestimated
+  - variable: household_count
+    geo_level: district
+
+  # === DISTRICT — dollar targets (all <8% mean error, restored) ===
+  - variable: real_estate_taxes
+    geo_level: district
+  - variable: self_employment_income
+    geo_level: district
+  - variable: taxable_pension_income
+    geo_level: district
+  - variable: refundable_ctc
+    geo_level: district
+  - variable: unemployment_compensation
+    geo_level: district
+
+  # === DISTRICT — ACA PTC (2% mean error, restored) ===
+  - variable: aca_ptc
+    geo_level: district
+  - variable: tax_unit_count
+    geo_level: district
+    domain_variable: aca_ptc
+
+  # === STATE ===
+  - variable: person_count
+    geo_level: state
+    domain_variable: medicaid_enrolled
+  # REMOVED: is_pregnant — 100% unachievable across all 51 state geos
+  - variable: snap
+    geo_level: state
+
+  # === NATIONAL — aggregate dollar targets ===
+  # REMOVED: adjusted_gross_income — filer-gated
+  - variable: child_support_expense
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: child_support_received
+    geo_level: national
+  # REMOVED: eitc — filer-gated
+  - variable: health_insurance_premiums_without_medicare_part_b
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: medicaid
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: medicare_part_b_premiums
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: other_medical_expenses
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: over_the_counter_health_expenses
+    geo_level: national
+  # REMOVED: qualified_business_income_deduction — filer-gated
+  - variable: rent
+    geo_level: national
+  # REMOVED: salt_deduction — 11.3x overestimate, worst variable in model
+  - variable: snap
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: social_security
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: social_security_disability
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: social_security_retirement
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: spm_unit_capped_housing_subsidy
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: spm_unit_capped_work_childcare_expenses
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: ssi
+    geo_level: national
+  - variable: tanf
+    geo_level: national
+  # REMOVED: tip_income — filer-gated
+  - variable: unemployment_compensation
+    geo_level: national
+
+  # === NATIONAL — IRS SOI domain-constrained dollar targets (restored: |rel_err| < 15%) ===
+  - variable: aca_ptc
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: aca_ptc
+  - variable: net_capital_gains
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: net_capital_gains
+  - variable: refundable_ctc
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: refundable_ctc
+  - variable: self_employment_income
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: self_employment_income
+  - variable: tax_unit_partnership_s_corp_income
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: tax_unit_partnership_s_corp_income
+  - variable: taxable_pension_income
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: taxable_pension_income
+  - variable: unemployment_compensation
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: unemployment_compensation
+  # REMOVED (|rel_err| > 15% or tension with counts):
+  #   adjusted_gross_income (28%), dividend_income (26%, tension), eitc (23%),
+  #   eitc by child_count (14-77%, tension), income_tax_before_credits (21%),
+  #   income_tax_positive (22%), qualified_business_income_deduction (55-63%),
+  #   qualified_dividend_income (29%, tension), rental_income (20%),
+  #   salt (102%), salt_deduction (1130%), tax_exempt_interest_income (61%),
+  #   taxable_interest_income (61%), taxable_ira_distributions (68%),
+  #   taxable_social_security (55%)
+
+  # === NATIONAL — IRS SOI filer count targets (restored: |rel_err| < 10%) ===
+  - variable: tax_unit_count
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: aca_ptc
+  - variable: tax_unit_count
+    geo_level: national
+    domain_variable: refundable_ctc
+  # REMOVED (|rel_err| > 10%): all other filer count targets (22-706% error)