Rebuild as quant-bench: hourly/daily OHLCV bars over high-liquidity resolved markets

README.md

@@ -2,212 +2,246 @@
 license: cc-by-4.0
 language:
   - en
-pretty_name: Polymarket Geopolitics — Markets, Trades, Blocks (strict filter)
+pretty_name: Polymarket Quant Bench — OHLCV bars for high-liquidity resolved markets
 size_categories:
-  - 1M<n<10M
+  - 10M<n<100M
 task_categories:
   - other
 tags:
   - polymarket
   - prediction-markets
-  - geopolitics
   - blockchain
   - polygon
   - market-microstructure
+  - ohlcv
+  - backtesting
+  - quantitative-finance
 configs:
   - config_name: markets
     data_files:
       - split: train
         path: "polymarket/markets/markets_*.parquet"
-  - config_name: trades
+  - config_name: bars_hourly
     data_files:
       - split: train
-        path: "polymarket/trades/trades_*.parquet"
-  - config_name: blocks
+        path: "polymarket/bars_hourly/bars_*.parquet"
+  - config_name: bars_daily
     data_files:
       - split: train
-        path: "polymarket/blocks/blocks_*.parquet"
+        path: "polymarket/bars_daily/bars_*.parquet"
 ---
 
-# Polymarket Geopolitics — markets, trades, blocks (strict filter)
+# Polymarket Quant Bench — OHLCV bars for high-liquidity resolved markets
 
-A curated subset of [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com) markets and on-chain
-trade events covering the **Geopolitics** category. Polymarket is a
-decentralised prediction market on the Polygon blockchain; binary
-contracts settle to one USDC if the underlying event occurs and zero
-otherwise. The dataset is intended for teaching and research on price
-discovery, calibration, and trader behaviour in prediction markets.
+A teaching-grade derivative of the [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com)
+on-chain trade history, designed for indicator-engineering and
+walk-forward back-testing assignments. Polymarket is a decentralised
+prediction market on the Polygon blockchain; binary contracts settle to
+one USDC if the underlying event occurs and zero otherwise.
 
-## Contents (strict filter applied)
+This release replaces the per-trade fill stream of the upstream dataset
+with **per-token OHLCV bars** at hourly and daily resolution, restricted
+to high-liquidity *resolved* markets so every market has a known outcome
+for P&L scoring and enough depth for rolling indicators.
+
+## Contents
 
 | File group | Rows | Description |
 |---|---:|---|
-| `polymarket/markets/markets_*.parquet` | 4,852 | One row per Polymarket question classified as Geopolitics. |
-| `polymarket/trades/trades_*.parquet` | 9,885,296 | One row per CTF-Exchange `OrderFilled` event for tokens belonging to those markets. |
-| `polymarket/blocks/blocks_*.parquet` | ~12 M | Polygon `block_number` → `timestamp` lookup, sampled every 100 blocks and linearly interpolated. |
+| `polymarket/markets/markets_*.parquet` | 36,831 | One row per resolved market with cumulative volume >= $100,000 and >= 200 on-chain trade fills. Full upstream schema plus a `category` column. |
+| `polymarket/bars_hourly/bars_*.parquet` | 12,655,266 | One row per `(token_id, calendar hour)` with OHLCV plus trade and direction counts. |
+| `polymarket/bars_daily/bars_*.parquet` | 1,462,282 | One row per `(token_id, calendar day)`, aggregated from the hourly bars. |
 
-Each file group is chunked into 10,000-row parquet shards — same chunking
-convention as the upstream release.
+Each file group is chunked into 10,000-row parquet shards.
 
 ## Provenance and attribution
 
-The raw market metadata, trade events, and block index were collected and
-released by **Jon Becker** at
+The raw market metadata and trade events were collected and released by
+**Jon Becker** at
 [github.com/jbecker19/polymarket-data](https://github.com/jbecker19/polymarket-data).
-This dataset is a category-restricted derivative of that release: all
-column schemas are byte-identical to Jon's upstream parquet files, with
-one added column (`category`) on the markets table.
-
-If you use this dataset, please cite Jon Becker's original release.
-
-## How the strict Geopolitics subset is selected
-
-An earlier version of this dataset used a two-tier text classifier (a
-keyword-score Tier 1 and a TF-IDF + logistic-regression Tier 2 fallback)
-to assign every Polymarket question to one of eight categories. The
-two-tier pipeline maximised recall but, at the Tier-2 decision boundary,
-admitted some markets that did not really belong in Geopolitics
-(e.g. sports questions about Russian teams, celebrity news about Iranian
-public figures).
-
-This release trades recall for **precision**. A market is kept only
-when **both** of the following hold:
-
-1. The two-tier classifier's final assignment is `Geopolitics`.
-2. An *independent* Tier-1 keyword pass — with no tie-breaking magic and
-   no Tier-2 rescue — also scores Geopolitics highest. By construction
-   this requires at least one of the Geopolitics keywords
-   (`war`, `ukraine`, `russia`, `israel`, `gaza`, `nato`, `nuclear`,
-   `ceasefire`, `iran`, `north korea`, `taiwan`, `sanctions`, `geopolit`,
-   `coup`, `regime`, `summit`, `unsc`, `embargo`, `houthi`, `hezbollah`,
-   `hamas`, `border`, ...) to fire in the market's `question`, `slug`,
-   or `description`.
-
-Markets that pass only the LR fallback but lack an explicit keyword hit
-are excluded. The result is a smaller but cleaner extract; trade counts
-shrink correspondingly because token-id membership flows from the kept
-markets.
+This dataset is a derivative: market metadata is restricted to the
+filter described below and trades are aggregated into OHLCV bars. If you
+use this dataset, please also cite Jon Becker's release.
+
+## How prices are computed
+
+Each on-chain `OrderFilled` event swaps **USDC** for an **outcome
+token** (or vice versa). Both assets use 6 decimals, so the raw atomic
+ratio of USDC to token quantity is already a dimensionless probability
+in `[0, 1]` -- the price the Polymarket UI shows in cents-per-dollar.
+
+For each trade `t`:
+
+```
+if t.maker_asset_id == '0':       # maker delivered USDC, taker delivered tokens
+    usdc_amount  = t.maker_amount
+    token_amount = t.taker_amount
+    taker_is_seller = True            # taker handed over tokens -> sold
+else:                                  # maker delivered tokens, taker delivered USDC
+    usdc_amount  = t.taker_amount
+    token_amount = t.maker_amount
+    taker_is_seller = False           # taker handed over USDC -> bought
+
+price       = usdc_amount / token_amount             # in [0, 1]
+volume_usd  = usdc_amount / 1e6                      # in USD
+signed_size = (-1 if taker_is_seller else +1) * token_amount / 1e6
+```
+
+`price` is the implied probability of the outcome the token represents.
+
+## How bars are aggregated
+
+For each `(token_id, bar_period)` group:
+
+| Field | Formula |
+|---|---|
+| `open` | `price` of the first trade in the bar (ordered by `block_number, log_index`) |
+| `high` | `MAX(price)` |
+| `low` | `MIN(price)` |
+| `close` | `price` of the last trade |
+| `vwap` | `SUM(price * volume_usd) / SUM(volume_usd)` |
+| `volume_usd` | `SUM(volume_usd)` |
+| `n_trades` | total fills in the bar |
+| `n_buys` / `n_sells` | fills where the taker bought / sold outcome tokens |
+
+Bars are emitted **only when at least one trade occurred in the period**
+(sparse representation). Use `tidyr::fill()` or
+`data.table::nafill()` to forward-fill if a dense series is required by
+your indicator.
+
+The hour boundary is defined by `block_number // 1800` (Polygon ~2 s per
+block; 1 800 blocks = 1 hour). Wall-clock `period_start` is attached
+post-aggregation by looking up the first block of each hour in the
+blocks-timestamp index and extrapolating forward at 2 seconds per
+block.
+
+Bars are emitted **per token** rather than per market. A Polymarket
+market has two complementary tokens (YES and NO); the `markets` table
+exposes both via `clob_token_ids`. If you want a single market-level
+mid-price series, pair the two token series yourself.
+
+## Filter applied to upstream markets
+
+A market is included iff **all** of the following hold:
+
+1. The market is **resolved** (one outcome price closed above 0.99 in
+   the upstream snapshot).
+2. **Cumulative trading volume >= $100,000** -- removes the long
+   tail of dust markets.
+3. **At least 200 on-chain trade fills** -- ensures enough
+   depth to compute rolling indicators meaningfully.
+
+This intentionally trades coverage for per-market depth. About
+36,831 markets remain out of the ~409 k in the upstream snapshot.
 
 ## Schemas
 
 ### `markets/markets_*.parquet`
 
+Upstream columns from Jon Becker's release plus `category`. Notable
+ones:
+
 | column | type | description |
 |---|---|---|
 | `id` | string | Polymarket market id (primary key). |
 | `condition_id` | string | Parent CTF condition id. |
-| `question` | string | The question prompt shown to users. |
-| `slug` | string | URL slug Polymarket uses to route this market. |
-| `outcomes` | string | JSON-encoded array of outcome labels, e.g. `["Yes","No"]`. |
-| `outcome_prices` | string | JSON-encoded array of final outcome prices. Resolution threshold > `0.99`. |
-| `clob_token_ids` | string | JSON-encoded array of CTF outcome-token ids (typically two: YES and NO). Use these to filter `trades/`. |
-| `volume` | double | Cumulative traded volume in USDC. |
-| `liquidity` | double | Snapshot of market depth. |
-| `active` | bool | Whether the market is currently open. |
-| `closed` | bool | Whether trading has ended. |
-| `end_date` | timestamp | Wall-clock end-of-life. |
-| `created_at` | timestamp | Wall-clock creation time. |
-| `market_maker_address` | string | Legacy FPMM contract address; NULL for CTF-Exchange markets. |
-| `_fetched_at` | timestamp | Snapshot time at which this metadata row was scraped. |
-| `category` | string | **New column.** Always `"Geopolitics"` for this extract. |
-
-### `trades/trades_*.parquet`
-
-Each row is one on-chain trade fill. Unique key is
-`(transaction_hash, log_index)` — `transaction_hash` repeats because
-Polymarket uses batch fill.
+| `question` | string | The question prompt. |
+| `slug` | string | URL slug. |
+| `outcomes` | string | JSON outcome labels, e.g. `["Yes","No"]`. |
+| `outcome_prices` | string | JSON outcome prices at snapshot time. The winning outcome closes near 1. |
+| `clob_token_ids` | string | JSON `[yes_token_id, no_token_id]`. Use to join bars to a market. |
+| `volume` | double | Cumulative USDC traded. |
+| `liquidity` | double | Snapshot depth. |
+| `end_date` | timestamp | Useful as `resolution_date` for held-out cohorts. |
+| `created_at` | timestamp | Market creation. |
+| `category` | string | Best-effort topic label. Use cautiously. |
+
+### `bars_hourly/bars_*.parquet` and `bars_daily/bars_*.parquet`
 
 | column | type | description |
 |---|---|---|
-| `block_number` | int64 | Polygon block in which the trade was mined. |
-| `transaction_hash` | string | Polygon transaction hash. |
-| `log_index` | int32 | Position within the transaction's event log. |
-| `order_hash` | string | EIP-712 hash of the order. |
-| `maker` | string | Polygon address of the order maker. |
-| `taker` | string | Polygon address of the order taker. |
-| `maker_asset_id` | string | Asset id the maker delivered. `'0'` = USDC. |
-| `taker_asset_id` | string | Asset id the taker delivered. |
-| `maker_amount` | int64 | Atomic units; divide by `1e6` for USDC or token units. |
-| `taker_amount` | int64 | Atomic units. |
-| `fee` | int64 | Polymarket fee in USDC atomic units. |
-| `timestamp` | timestamp | **Always NULL.** Join to `blocks/` to recover wall-clock. |
-| `_fetched_at` | timestamp | Scrape time. |
-| `_contract` | string | `"CTF Exchange"` or `"NegRisk CTF Exchange"`. |
-
-### `blocks/blocks_*.parquet`
-
-| column | type | description |
-|---|---|---|
-| `block_number` | int64 | Polygon block number. |
-| `timestamp` | string (ISO-8601) | Block timestamp, cast to `POSIXct` for arithmetic. |
-
-### Computing trade price and signed direction
-
-```
-price_cents = 100 * usdc_amount / token_amount
-            = 100 * (maker_amount if maker_asset_id == '0' else taker_amount)
-                  / (taker_amount if maker_asset_id == '0' else maker_amount)
-
-# Taker direction: positive = taker bought outcome tokens
-if maker_asset_id == '0':
-    taker_signed_size = -taker_amount / 1e6   # taker delivered tokens; sold
-else:
-    taker_signed_size = +maker_amount / 1e6   # taker delivered USDC; bought
-```
+| `token_id` | string | CTF outcome-token id. |
+| `period_start` | timestamp | Bar start, UTC. |
+| `period_end` | timestamp | `period_start + 1 hour` (or `+ 1 day`). |
+| `open` / `high` / `low` / `close` | double | Implied probability in `[0, 1]`. |
+| `vwap` | double | Volume-weighted average price. |
+| `volume_usd` | double | Total USDC traded in the bar. |
+| `n_trades` | int64 | Number of `OrderFilled` events in the bar. |
+| `n_buys` / `n_sells` | int64 | Taker-side direction counts. |
 
 ## Quick start in R
 
+### Setup
+
 ```r
-install.packages(c("arrow", "dplyr", "jsonlite", "duckdb"))
+install.packages(c("arrow", "dplyr", "jsonlite", "lubridate", "slider",
+                   "TTR", "PerformanceAnalytics", "glmnet"))
 library(arrow)
 library(dplyr)
-library(jsonlite)
+library(slider)
+```
+
+### Build a per-token feature frame
 
+```r
 markets <- open_dataset("polymarket/markets/")
-trades  <- open_dataset("polymarket/trades/")
-blocks  <- open_dataset("polymarket/blocks/")
+bars    <- open_dataset("polymarket/bars_hourly/")
 
-m <- markets %>% arrange(desc(volume)) %>% head(1) %>% collect()
-token_ids <- jsonlite::fromJSON(m$clob_token_ids)
+# Pick a large market and grab its YES token id.
+m <- markets %>% filter(volume > 1e6) %>% head(1) %>% collect()
+yes_token_id <- jsonlite::fromJSON(m$clob_token_ids)[1]
 
-market_trades <- trades %>%
-  filter(maker_asset_id %in% token_ids | taker_asset_id %in% token_ids) %>%
+ts <- bars %>%
+  filter(token_id == yes_token_id) %>%
   collect() %>%
-  arrange(block_number, log_index) %>%
-  left_join(collect(blocks), by = "block_number") %>%
-  mutate(timestamp = as.POSIXct(timestamp, tz = "UTC")) %>%
+  arrange(period_start) %>%
   mutate(
-    is_usdc_maker     = maker_asset_id == "0",
-    usdc_amount       = ifelse(is_usdc_maker, maker_amount, taker_amount),
-    token_amount      = ifelse(is_usdc_maker, taker_amount, maker_amount),
-    price_cents       = 100 * usdc_amount / token_amount,
-    taker_signed_size = ifelse(is_usdc_maker, -taker_amount / 1e6, +maker_amount / 1e6)
+    sma_24h = slide_dbl(close, mean, .before = 24, .complete = TRUE),
+    ema_24h = TTR::EMA(close, n = 24),
+    ret_1h  = log(close / lag(close)),
+    rsi_14  = TTR::RSI(close, n = 14),
+    boll    = TTR::BBands(close, n = 20, sd = 2)[, "pctB"],
+    days_to_resolution = as.numeric(difftime(m$end_date, period_start, units = "days"))
   )
 ```
 
-## Streaming via the HuggingFace `datasets` library (Python)
+### Walk-forward elastic net + back-test
+
+```r
+library(glmnet)
+library(PerformanceAnalytics)
+
+fit    <- cv.glmnet(X_train, y_train, alpha = 0.5)
+signal <- predict(fit, newx = X_test, s = "lambda.min")
+
+# 1% per-trade cost, threshold-based position.
+pos <- sign(signal) * (abs(signal) > threshold)
+ret <- pos * y_test - 0.01 * abs(diff(c(0, pos)))
+charts.PerformanceSummary(ret)
+```
+
+## Streaming via the HuggingFace `datasets` library
 
 ```python
 from datasets import load_dataset
-markets = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics", "markets", split="train")
-trades  = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics", "trades",  split="train", streaming=True)
-blocks  = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics", "blocks",  split="train")
+markets     = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-quant-bench", "markets",     split="train")
+bars_hourly = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-quant-bench", "bars_hourly", split="train", streaming=True)
+bars_daily  = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-quant-bench", "bars_daily",  split="train")
 ```
 
 ## License
 
 [CC-BY-4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Please cite
-both this release and Jon Becker's upstream repository when using the
-data in published work.
+both this release and Jon Becker's upstream repository.
 
 ## Citation
 
 ```bibtex
-@misc{polymarket_geopolitics_2026,
+@misc{polymarket_quant_bench_2026,
   author       = {Padmaperuma, Oliver},
-  title        = {Polymarket Geopolitics: Markets, Trades, Blocks (derived subset, strict filter)},
+  title        = {Polymarket Quant Bench: OHLCV bars for high-liquidity resolved markets},
   year         = {2026},
-  howpublished = {HuggingFace dataset, smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics},
+  howpublished = {HuggingFace dataset, smf-ulm/polymarket-quant-bench},
   note         = {Derived from Jon Becker's polymarket-data release at
                   \url{https://github.com/jbecker19/polymarket-data}}
 }

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