Datasets:

smf-ulm
/

polymarket-quant-bench

@@ -2,9 +2,9 @@
 license: cc-by-4.0
 language:
   - en
-pretty_name: Polymarket Geopolitics — Markets, Trades, Blocks
 size_categories:
-  - 10M<n<100M
 task_categories:
   - other
 tags:
@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ configs:
         path: "polymarket/blocks/blocks_*.parquet"
 ---
-# Polymarket Geopolitics — markets, trades, blocks
 A curated subset of [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com) markets and on-chain
 trade events covering the **Geopolitics** category. Polymarket is a
@@ -38,17 +38,16 @@ contracts settle to one USDC if the underlying event occurs and zero
 otherwise. The dataset is intended for teaching and research on price
 discovery, calibration, and trader behaviour in prediction markets.
-## Contents
 | File group | Rows | Description |
 |---|---:|---|
-| `polymarket/markets/markets_*.parquet` | 6,053 | One row per Polymarket question classified as Geopolitics. |
-| `polymarket/trades/trades_*.parquet` | 11,734,433 | One row per CTF-Exchange `OrderFilled` event for tokens belonging to those markets. |
-| `polymarket/blocks/blocks_*.parquet` | ~12 M | Polygon `block_number` → `timestamp` lookup, sampled every 100 blocks and linearly interpolated in between. |
-Each file group is chunked into 10,000-row parquet shards (1,174 trade
-shards, 785 block shards, 1 market shard) — same chunking convention as
-the upstream release.
 ## Provenance and attribution
@@ -61,37 +60,33 @@ one added column (`category`) on the markets table.
 If you use this dataset, please cite Jon Becker's original release.
-## How the Geopolitics subset was selected
-Each Polymarket market was classified into one of eight categories
-(Politics & Elections, Sports, Crypto & Web3, Finance & Economics,
-Geopolitics, Science & Technology, Entertainment & Culture, Other) by a
-two-tier text classifier:
-1. **Tier 1 — weighted keyword score.** For each candidate category, a
-   weighted hit count is computed over the market's `question` (weight
-   3), `slug` (weight 2), and `description` (weight 1). Categories use
-   topic-specific keyword lists (Geopolitics keywords include `war`,
-   `ukraine`, `russia`, `israel`, `gaza`, `nato`, `nuclear`, `ceasefire`,
-   `iran`, `north korea`, `taiwan`, `sanctions`, `geopolit`, `coup`,
-   `regime`, `summit`, `unsc`, `embargo`, `houthi`, `hezbollah`, `hamas`,
-   `border`, ...). The category with the highest score wins; ties are
-   broken by a fixed priority chain
-   (Politics > Geopolitics > Finance > Crypto > Sports > Science >
-   Entertainment > Other).
-2. **Tier 2 — TF-IDF + logistic-regression fallback.** Markets the
-   Tier-1 classifier sent to *Other* or scored below a single
-   low-weight keyword hit are re-classified by a TF-IDF + multinomial
-   logistic-regression model trained on a 640-row stratified
-   hand-labelled seed. Predictions with posterior < 0.4 remain in
-   *Other* to avoid mis-labelling low-confidence cases.
-Held-out weighted accuracy of the two-tier pipeline is 0.87 on the
-160-row eval split. The two-tier process drops the *Other* residual on
-the full 408 k-market sample from 44.9 % (Tier-1 only) to 9.3 %.
-This particular extract retains only markets whose final classifier
-assignment is **Geopolitics** (6,053 markets out of ~409 k).
 ## Schemas
@@ -112,7 +107,7 @@ assignment is **Geopolitics** (6,053 markets out of ~409 k).
 | `closed` | bool | Whether trading has ended. |
 | `end_date` | timestamp | Wall-clock end-of-life. |
 | `created_at` | timestamp | Wall-clock creation time. |
-| `market_maker_address` | string | Legacy FPMM contract address; NULL for CTF-Exchange markets (all Geopolitics markets here are CTF). |
 | `_fetched_at` | timestamp | Snapshot time at which this metadata row was scraped. |
 | `category` | string | **New column.** Always `"Geopolitics"` for this extract. |
@@ -128,10 +123,10 @@ Polymarket uses batch fill.
 | `transaction_hash` | string | Polygon transaction hash. |
 | `log_index` | int32 | Position within the transaction's event log. |
 | `order_hash` | string | EIP-712 hash of the order. |
-| `maker` | string | Polygon address of the order maker (resting side). |
-| `taker` | string | Polygon address of the order taker (aggressing side). |
 | `maker_asset_id` | string | Asset id the maker delivered. `'0'` = USDC. |
-| `taker_asset_id` | string | Asset id the taker delivered. Mirror of `maker_asset_id`. |
 | `maker_amount` | int64 | Atomic units; divide by `1e6` for USDC or token units. |
 | `taker_amount` | int64 | Atomic units. |
 | `fee` | int64 | Polymarket fee in USDC atomic units. |
@@ -168,36 +163,25 @@ library(arrow)
 library(dplyr)
 library(jsonlite)
-# Load the chunked parquet files transparently.
 markets <- open_dataset("polymarket/markets/")
 trades  <- open_dataset("polymarket/trades/")
 blocks  <- open_dataset("polymarket/blocks/")
-# Pick the largest-volume market.
-m <- markets %>%
-  arrange(desc(volume)) %>%
-  head(1) %>%
-  collect()
-# Parse the token ids and pull the matching trades.
 token_ids <- jsonlite::fromJSON(m$clob_token_ids)
 market_trades <- trades %>%
   filter(maker_asset_id %in% token_ids | taker_asset_id %in% token_ids) %>%
   collect() %>%
   arrange(block_number, log_index) %>%
   left_join(collect(blocks), by = "block_number") %>%
-  mutate(timestamp = as.POSIXct(timestamp, tz = "UTC"))
-# Derive price and signed direction.
-market_trades <- market_trades %>%
   mutate(
     is_usdc_maker     = maker_asset_id == "0",
     usdc_amount       = ifelse(is_usdc_maker, maker_amount, taker_amount),
     token_amount      = ifelse(is_usdc_maker, taker_amount, maker_amount),
     price_cents       = 100 * usdc_amount / token_amount,
-    taker_signed_size = ifelse(is_usdc_maker,
-                               -taker_amount / 1e6,
-                               +maker_amount / 1e6)
   )
 ```
@@ -205,17 +189,13 @@ market_trades <- market_trades %>%
 ```python
 from datasets import load_dataset
 markets = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics", "markets", split="train")
 trades  = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics", "trades",  split="train", streaming=True)
 blocks  = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics", "blocks",  split="train")
-print(markets[0]["question"])
 ```
 ## License
-The derivative dataset is licensed
 [CC-BY-4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Please cite
 both this release and Jon Becker's upstream repository when using the
 data in published work.
@@ -225,7 +205,7 @@ data in published work.
 ```bibtex
 @misc{polymarket_geopolitics_2026,
   author       = {Padmaperuma, Oliver},
-  title        = {Polymarket Geopolitics: Markets, Trades, Blocks (derived subset)},
   year         = {2026},
   howpublished = {HuggingFace dataset, smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics},
   note         = {Derived from Jon Becker's polymarket-data release at

 license: cc-by-4.0
 language:
   - en
+pretty_name: Polymarket Geopolitics — Markets, Trades, Blocks (strict filter)
 size_categories:
+  - 1M<n<10M
 task_categories:
   - other
 tags:
         path: "polymarket/blocks/blocks_*.parquet"
 ---
+# Polymarket Geopolitics — markets, trades, blocks (strict filter)
 A curated subset of [Polymarket](https://polymarket.com) markets and on-chain
 trade events covering the **Geopolitics** category. Polymarket is a
 otherwise. The dataset is intended for teaching and research on price
 discovery, calibration, and trader behaviour in prediction markets.
+## Contents (strict filter applied)
 | File group | Rows | Description |
 |---|---:|---|
+| `polymarket/markets/markets_*.parquet` | 4,852 | One row per Polymarket question classified as Geopolitics. |
+| `polymarket/trades/trades_*.parquet` | 9,885,296 | One row per CTF-Exchange `OrderFilled` event for tokens belonging to those markets. |
+| `polymarket/blocks/blocks_*.parquet` | ~12 M | Polygon `block_number` → `timestamp` lookup, sampled every 100 blocks and linearly interpolated. |
+Each file group is chunked into 10,000-row parquet shards — same chunking
+convention as the upstream release.
 ## Provenance and attribution
 If you use this dataset, please cite Jon Becker's original release.
+## How the strict Geopolitics subset is selected
+An earlier version of this dataset used a two-tier text classifier (a
+keyword-score Tier 1 and a TF-IDF + logistic-regression Tier 2 fallback)
+to assign every Polymarket question to one of eight categories. The
+two-tier pipeline maximised recall but, at the Tier-2 decision boundary,
+admitted some markets that did not really belong in Geopolitics
+(e.g. sports questions about Russian teams, celebrity news about Iranian
+public figures).
+This release trades recall for **precision**. A market is kept only
+when **both** of the following hold:
+1. The two-tier classifier's final assignment is `Geopolitics`.
+2. An *independent* Tier-1 keyword pass — with no tie-breaking magic and
+   no Tier-2 rescue — also scores Geopolitics highest. By construction
+   this requires at least one of the Geopolitics keywords
+   (`war`, `ukraine`, `russia`, `israel`, `gaza`, `nato`, `nuclear`,
+   `ceasefire`, `iran`, `north korea`, `taiwan`, `sanctions`, `geopolit`,
+   `coup`, `regime`, `summit`, `unsc`, `embargo`, `houthi`, `hezbollah`,
+   `hamas`, `border`, ...) to fire in the market's `question`, `slug`,
+   or `description`.
+Markets that pass only the LR fallback but lack an explicit keyword hit
+are excluded. The result is a smaller but cleaner extract; trade counts
+shrink correspondingly because token-id membership flows from the kept
+markets.
 ## Schemas
 | `closed` | bool | Whether trading has ended. |
 | `end_date` | timestamp | Wall-clock end-of-life. |
 | `created_at` | timestamp | Wall-clock creation time. |
+| `market_maker_address` | string | Legacy FPMM contract address; NULL for CTF-Exchange markets. |
 | `_fetched_at` | timestamp | Snapshot time at which this metadata row was scraped. |
 | `category` | string | **New column.** Always `"Geopolitics"` for this extract. |
 | `transaction_hash` | string | Polygon transaction hash. |
 | `log_index` | int32 | Position within the transaction's event log. |
 | `order_hash` | string | EIP-712 hash of the order. |
+| `maker` | string | Polygon address of the order maker. |
+| `taker` | string | Polygon address of the order taker. |
 | `maker_asset_id` | string | Asset id the maker delivered. `'0'` = USDC. |
+| `taker_asset_id` | string | Asset id the taker delivered. |
 | `maker_amount` | int64 | Atomic units; divide by `1e6` for USDC or token units. |
 | `taker_amount` | int64 | Atomic units. |
 | `fee` | int64 | Polymarket fee in USDC atomic units. |
 library(dplyr)
 library(jsonlite)
 markets <- open_dataset("polymarket/markets/")
 trades  <- open_dataset("polymarket/trades/")
 blocks  <- open_dataset("polymarket/blocks/")
+m <- markets %>% arrange(desc(volume)) %>% head(1) %>% collect()
 token_ids <- jsonlite::fromJSON(m$clob_token_ids)
 market_trades <- trades %>%
   filter(maker_asset_id %in% token_ids | taker_asset_id %in% token_ids) %>%
   collect() %>%
   arrange(block_number, log_index) %>%
   left_join(collect(blocks), by = "block_number") %>%
+  mutate(timestamp = as.POSIXct(timestamp, tz = "UTC")) %>%
   mutate(
     is_usdc_maker     = maker_asset_id == "0",
     usdc_amount       = ifelse(is_usdc_maker, maker_amount, taker_amount),
     token_amount      = ifelse(is_usdc_maker, taker_amount, maker_amount),
     price_cents       = 100 * usdc_amount / token_amount,
+    taker_signed_size = ifelse(is_usdc_maker, -taker_amount / 1e6, +maker_amount / 1e6)
   )
 ```
 ```python
 from datasets import load_dataset
 markets = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics", "markets", split="train")
 trades  = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics", "trades",  split="train", streaming=True)
 blocks  = load_dataset("smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics", "blocks",  split="train")
 ```
 ## License
 [CC-BY-4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Please cite
 both this release and Jon Becker's upstream repository when using the
 data in published work.
 ```bibtex
 @misc{polymarket_geopolitics_2026,
   author       = {Padmaperuma, Oliver},
+  title        = {Polymarket Geopolitics: Markets, Trades, Blocks (derived subset, strict filter)},
   year         = {2026},
   howpublished = {HuggingFace dataset, smf-ulm/polymarket-geopolitics},
   note         = {Derived from Jon Becker's polymarket-data release at

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