id int64 29.6k 30.7k | title stringlengths 46 160 | description stringlengths 47 2.67k | resolution stringclasses 2
values | close stringdate 2024-11-09 15:30:00 2024-12-31 12:00:00 | open stringdate 2024-11-08 15:30:00 2024-12-12 15:30:00 | status stringclasses 1
value | __index_level_0__ int64 47 380 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
30,740 | Will the cheapest new Tesla Model Y be listed as under $44,990 on December 30, 2024? | As of December 11, 2024, this price was $44,990 | no | 2024-12-13T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-12T15:30:00Z | resolved | 47 |
30,726 | Will the Grouse Mountain ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 20, 2024? | Vancouver Sun February 2024: ['Feels like a ripoff': Ski pass holders expecting discounts as some B.C. mountains remain closed](https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ski-pass-holders-expecting-discounts-as-bc-mountains-remain-closed) | yes | 2024-12-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 52 |
30,725 | Will the United States have 100.0 million or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [Almost half of the US is experiencing drought. How that can affect the food industry.](https://abcnews.go.com/US/half-us-experiencing-drought-affect-food-industry/story?id=115102946) | yes | 2024-12-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 53 |
30,724 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Homestead, scheduled to open December 20, 2024, exceed $7,000,000? | Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://help.imdb.com/article/imdbpro/industry-research/box-office-mojo-by-imdbpro-faq/GCWTV4MQKGWRAUAP#domesticinternational) "domestic" as gross box-office revenue from North America (U.S., Canada, and Puerto Rico). According to the [Box Office by IMDbPro Glossary](https://help.imd... | no | 2024-12-12T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-11T15:30:00Z | resolved | 54 |
30,638 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-12-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-10T15:30:00Z | resolved | 64 |
30,637 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Virginia Beach, VA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 4.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-12-11T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-10T15:30:00Z | resolved | 65 |
30,586 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):
> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing b... | yes | 2024-12-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 78 |
30,579 | Will Joe Biden sign 4 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Un... | yes | 2024-12-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 85 |
30,578 | Will Joe Biden sign 3 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Un... | yes | 2024-12-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 86 |
30,577 | Will Joe Biden sign 2 or more executive orders after Election Day and before January 1, 2025? | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
>In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government.The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Un... | yes | 2024-12-07T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 87 |
30,536 | Will Emmanuel Macron be President of France on December 31, 2024? | [French President Emmanuel Macron says he will NOT resign as crisis engulfs his Government after extremist parties were accused of playing 'Russian roulette' with the country's future](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14154367/french-president-emmanuel-macron-not-resign.html) | yes | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | resolved | 93 |
30,535 | Will Bashar al-Assad be President of Syria on December 31, 2024? | AP: [What to know about sudden rebel gains in Syria’s 13-year war and why it matters](https://apnews.com/article/syria-hts-assad-aleppo-fighting-2be43ee530b7932b123a0f26b158ac22) | no | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | resolved | 94 |
30,534 | Will Miami have at least 5 days of rain in December 2024? | At the time of this question, Miami is Abnormally Dry according to Drought.gov at [this link](https://www.drought.gov/states/florida/county/miami-dade). | yes | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | resolved | 95 |
30,533 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | [Thousands of professors join call for president to resign](https://www.universityworldnews.com/post.php?story=20241129133043835) | yes | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | resolved | 96 |
30,532 | Will Ghana declare a winner in its presidential election before January 1, 2025? | [Ghana’s December 2024 elections put the resilience of the country’s vaunted democracy to the test](https://afripoli.org/ghanas-december-2024-elections-put-the-resilience-of-the-countrys-vaunted-democracy-to-the-test) | [Ghana 2024 Elections: A Risk Assessment of the Online Information Space](https://www.iri.org/resour... | yes | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | resolved | 97 |
30,504 | Will the Alpental ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 6, 2024? | From the resolution source: "Alpental (German for alpine valley) is one of four base areas at the Summit at Snoqualmie, separated from the other three by Interstate 90. Alpental offers the most advanced and expert terrain at the area with runs like Upper International and Shot Six. The area provides some of the steepes... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 112 |
30,503 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline between $3.020 and $3.080 (inclusive) for the week of December 9, 2024? | According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. T... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 113 |
30,502 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.020 for the week of December 9, 2024? | According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. T... | yes | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 114 |
30,501 | Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.080 for the week of December 9, 2024? | According to [EIA](https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/gasdiesel/gas_proc-methods.php), "Every Monday, EIA collects information on retail prices for regular, midgrade, and premium grades of gasoline from a sample of retail gasoline outlets across the United States using Form EIA-878, Motor Gasoline Price Survey Schedule A. T... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 115 |
30,500 | Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of greater than or equal to 1.25 degrees and less than or equal to 1.31 degrees? | According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates t... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 116 |
30,499 | Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of <1.25 degrees? | According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates t... | no | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 117 |
30,498 | Will November 2024 have a global temperature increase of >1.31 degrees? | According to [NOAA](https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/global-temperature-anomalies), "The term temperature anomaly means a departure from a reference value or long-term average. A positive anomaly indicates that the observed temperature was warmer than the reference value, while a negative anomaly indicates t... | yes | 2024-12-05T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | resolved | 118 |
30,478 | Will Yoon Suk Yeol be President of South Korea on December 31, 2024? | [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-korea-president-yoon-declares-martial-law-2024-12-03/):
> In South Korea's biggest political crisis in decades, Yoon shocked the nation and declared martial law on Tuesday night to thwart "anti-state forces" among his domestic political opponents. But outraged ... | yes | 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 122 |
30,474 | Will France have a new Prime Minister before January 1, 2025? | [Politico](https://www.politico.eu/article/france-prime-minister-michel-barnier-is-facing-the-chop-what-happens-next-crisis-emmanuel-macron/):
> On Monday, Barnier, the EU’s former chief Brexit negotiator, used a controversial constitutional maneuver to bypass parliament and force through a social security financing b... | yes | 2024-12-13T05:01:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 124 |
30,447 | Will Candy Meehan survive the recall vote in Norwood, Colorado, scheduled for December 10, 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Candy Meehan recall, Norwood, Colorado (2024)](https://ballotpedia.org/Candy_Meehan_recall,_Norwood,_Colorado_(2024)) | yes | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 130 |
30,446 | Will the state of Delaware's Division of Corporations list OpenAI as an "Exempt" entity on December 31, 2024? | [Exclusive: OpenAI to remove non-profit control and give Sam Altman equity](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/) | yes | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 131 |
30,442 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be less than -6? | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | no | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 135 |
30,441 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than or equal to -6 and less than or equal to -4? | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | no | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 136 |
30,440 | Will be Donald Trump's net favorability rating on December 27, 2024 be greater than -4? | [FiveThirtyEight](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/) aggregates polling data from various pollsters to calculate a weighted favorability rating. After winning the US election, Trump's net favorability (% of people that have a favorable opinion - % that have an unfavorable one) has in... | yes | 2024-12-04T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | resolved | 137 |
30,395 | Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have under $550 billion in reverse repurchase agreements at the end of December 2024? | TrendForce: [Fed’s Reverse Repo Shrinks Significantly: Is Market Liquidity at Risk ?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/11/news-feds-reverse-repo-shrinks-significantly-is-market-liquidity-at-risk/) | no | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 145 |
30,394 | Will the US Federal Reserve's balance sheet have less than $6.8 trillion in assets at the end of December 2024? | Reuters: [Fed's Powell says balance sheet drawdown continues amid rate cuts](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-powell-says-balance-sheet-drawdown-continues-amid-rate-cuts-2024-09-18/) | no | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 146 |
30,393 | Will Bitcoin be worth at least 200,000 Dogecoin on December 30, 2024? | At the time of this question, Dogecoin had year-to-date returns of 375.27% and Bitcoin had ytd returns of 129.63%. | yes | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 147 |
30,392 | Will the 2024 return of professional investor Howard Marks beat the return of any of the politicans tracked by Quiver Quantitative? | NPR: [Stock traders are trying to beat the market — by copying lawmakers](https://www.npr.org/2024/06/06/nx-s1-4974720/congress-stock-trades-profits) | no | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 148 |
30,389 | Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat the S&P 500 in 2024? | Motley Fool: [Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Nearly Tripled the S&P 500's Returns in 2023: Here Are the Stocks She's Been Buying](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/28/former-house-speaker-nancy-pelosi-nearly-tripled-t/) | yes | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 151 |
30,388 | Will Nancy Pelosi's stock portfolio beat Berkshire Hathaway in 2024? | Benzinga: [Edward Snowden Contrasts Warren Buffett's Investment Skills with Nancy Pelosi, Dan Meuser: 'Fortunate to Be Represented by Extraordinary Talents](https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/03/38016319/edward-snowden-contrasts-warren-buffetts-investment-skills-with-nancy-pelosi-dan-meuser-fortunate-to) | yes | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 152 |
30,387 | Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥175,000 for November 2024? | TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, ... | yes | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 153 |
30,386 | Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers of ≥75,000 for November 2024? | TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, ... | yes | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 154 |
30,385 | Will the BLS report an increase in nonfarm payroll numbers for November 2024? | TrendForce: [Has the U.S. Labor Market Truly Deteriorated Amid the Sharp Decline in Nonfarm Payrolls?](https://www.trendforce.com/news/2024/11/05/news-has-the-u-s-labor-market-truly-deteriorated-amid-the-sharp-decline-in-nonfarm-payrolls/): "The recently released U.S. nonfarm payroll data showed unusually weak growth, ... | yes | 2024-12-03T15:30:00Z | 2024-12-02T15:30:00Z | resolved | 155 |
30,351 | Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on December 20, 2024? | On Nomember 22, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 6 were from the United States. On the entire list, 190 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States. | yes | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-29T15:30:00Z | resolved | 160 |
30,350 | Will marijuana still be listed as a US Schedule I controlled substance on December 31, 2024? | According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/):
>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) ... | yes | 2024-11-30T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-29T15:30:00Z | resolved | 161 |
30,324 | Will the US Supreme Court's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 41.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). | no | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | resolved | 173 |
30,323 | Will the US Congress's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 22.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). | no | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | resolved | 174 |
30,322 | Will JD Vance's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 39.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). | yes | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | resolved | 175 |
30,321 | Will Kamala Harris's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). | no | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | resolved | 176 |
30,320 | Will Joe Biden's 538 approval rating be greater than or equal to 38.5% on December 30, 2024? | According to 538, its approval tracker is "An updating calculation of the president's approval rating, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects." | no | 2024-11-28T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | resolved | 177 |
30,301 | Will New Delhi experience a "Hazardous" air quality index for at least one third of the last two weeks of December 2024? | According to [Airnow](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/):
>The U.S. Air Quality Index (AQI) is EPA's tool for communicating about outdoor air quality and health. The AQI includes six color-coded categories, each corresponding to a range of index values. The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollu... | yes | 2024-12-20T22:30:00Z | 2024-12-06T15:30:00Z | resolved | 183 |
30,289 | Will the temperature in Phoenix, AZ remain below 80 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024? | In December 2022, the highest High was 74 F and in December 2023 it was 84. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website... | no | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | resolved | 186 |
30,285 | Will the temperature in New York, NY ever go below 25 degrees F in the entire month of December 2024? | In December 2022, this occurred, but in December 2023 it did not. According to [Iowa State University](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/), "The Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) collects environmental data from cooperating members with observing networks. The data are stored and made available on this website." | yes | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | resolved | 190 |
30,283 | Will Donald Trump's 538 favorability be greater than or equal to 44.0% on December 30, 2024? | Please find 538's methodology [here](https://abcnews.go.com/538/polling-averages-work/story?id=109364028). | yes | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | resolved | 192 |
30,282 | Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore still be in space on December 30, 2024? | CNET: [Stranded NASA Astronauts Are Eating Pizza, Shrimp Cocktail, Cereal With Powdered Milk](https://www.cnet.com/science/stranded-nasa-astronauts-are-eating-pizza-shrimp-cocktail-cereal-with-powdered-milk/) | yes | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | resolved | 193 |
30,281 | On December 31, 2024, will exactly 4 US states have Waymo's rider-only ride-hailing service available to the general public?
| This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/new-data-shows-waymo-crashes-a-lot).
Waymo, the Alphabet-owned self-driving technology company, has emerged as a pioneer in the developmen... | no | 2024-11-27T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | resolved | 194 |
30,257 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Providence, RI in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 5.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 200 |
30,256 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Los Angeles, CA in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 201 |
30,255 | Will the year-over-year increase in rent in Orlando, FL in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 1.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 202 |
30,254 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Baltimore, MD in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 2.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | yes | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 203 |
30,253 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Dallas, TX in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 0.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | no | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 204 |
30,252 | Will the year-over-year increase in prices of homes in Hartford, CT in November 2024 be greater than or equal to 7.0%, according to Zillow? | According to Zillow, housing data is updated on the 12th of each month. | no | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 205 |
30,250 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Y2K, scheduled to open December 6, 2024, exceed $5,000,000? | [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, is withholding forecasts on Y2K until more information is available. IMDB [describes](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt27218960/) the m... | no | 2024-11-26T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-25T15:30:00Z | resolved | 207 |
30,200 | Will Virgin Galactic fail to make make any new posts on its News page before January 1, 2025? | As of November 20, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024. | no | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | resolved | 214 |
30,197 | Will Bluesky reach 30 million users before 1 January 2025? | [Bluesky](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bluesky) is a decentralised social media platform developed by Twitter co-founder [Jack Dorsey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dorsey). It aims to provide users with greater control over their data and the algorithms that curate their feeds. Since its public launch in Februar... | no | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | resolved | 217 |
30,193 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | [*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedg... | no | 2024-11-23T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | resolved | 221 |
30,162 | Will the Mt Seymour ski resort be listed as Open by On the Snow's Ski Report on December 13, 2024? | Vancouver Sun: [PSA: Metro Vancouver ski hills just received the first snow of the season](https://vancouversun.com/news/psa-metro-vancouver-ski-hills-just-received-the-first-snow-of-the-season) "Weather experts are also betting on a snowier winter this year compared to last year" | no | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 225 |
30,159 | Will the yield curve be non-inverted on Friday December 27, 2024? | As of Wednesdays November 20, 2024, the value shown was 0.10. | yes | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 228 |
30,158 | Will Comex Gold Spot prices remain below $2,800 per ounce through December 27, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance? | According to [CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-best-gold-investments-to-make-before-2025-experts-say/): "Gold shattered historic records in 2024, hitting $2,790 per ounce in October, its upward price trajectory stemming from heavy central bank buying, ongoing inflation concerns and expected Federal Reserve ra... | yes | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 229 |
30,156 | Will lithium carbonate (CNY/T) prices continuously remain above 70,000 before December 21, 2024? | According to TradingEconomics: "Lithium carbonated rose to CNY 79,000 per tonne after having traded near the three-year low of CNY 71,000 through late October, benefiting from supply curbs and an uptick in demand. The Chinese government enacted subsidies allowing people to trade older cars for electric vehicles in thei... | yes | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 231 |
30,155 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000? | According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, The Lord of The Rings: The War of the Rohirrim is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo ... | no | 2024-11-22T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 232 |
30,124 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Kraven the Hunter, scheduled to open December 13, 2024, exceed $20,000,000? | According to [BoxOfficeTheory](https://boxofficetheory.com/5-week-tracking-forecasts-kraven-the-hunter-lord-of-the-rings-the-war-of-the-rohirrim-and-a-big-moana-2-update/), a movie forecasting company, Kraven the Hunter is expected to have an opening weekend of $20 million. Box Office Mojo generally [defines](https://h... | no | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | resolved | 240 |
30,122 | Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet? | Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, "Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering." Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January. | no | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | resolved | 242 |
30,121 | Before December 31, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Tesla? | Tesla is most recently listed in April 2024, with the blurb saying, "Has gutted its charging team in a new round of layoffs, CEO Elon Musk announced in an overnight email to executives." | no | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | resolved | 243 |
30,120 | Will South Carolina have 300,000 or more residents living in drought on December 31, 2024? | [Nearly four weeks without rain, drought conditions creeping back in South Carolina](https://www.foxcarolina.com/2024/10/24/nearly-four-weeks-without-rain-drought-conditions-creeping-back-south-carolina/) | yes | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | resolved | 244 |
30,103 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | crosspost of https://www.metaculus.com/questions/29902/will-astro-bot-win-the-game-of-the-year-2024-award/ for Brown | yes | 2024-12-13T05:20:00Z | 2024-11-21T21:06:00Z | resolved | 247 |
30,091 | Will Astro Bot or Final Fantasy 7 Rebirth win Console Game of the Year in the 2024 Golden Joystick Awards?
| The 2024 nominees for Console Game of the Year are Astro Bot, Dragon’s Dogma 2, Final Fantasy VII Rebirth, Helldivers 2, Prince of Persia: The Lost Crown, and The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 252 |
30,089 | Will Larry Ellison be ranked in the top 2 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on December 31, 2024? | As of October 8, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $260.8B. Larry Ellison is ranked 2nd, with $211.6 B. Mark Zuckerberg is 3rd, with $205.0 B. Jeff Bezos was 4th, with 200.9B. Bernard Arnault & family
was 5th, with $183.1B. And Warren Buffett with 6th, with $142.2B. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 254 |
30,088 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be less than 585 on December 27, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 255 |
30,087 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs be greater than or equal to 585 and less than or equal to 590 on December 27, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944. | yes | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 256 |
30,086 | Will the number of active US oil drilling rigs exceed 590 on December 27, 2024? | Baker Hughes [issues](https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/) US oil rig counts every Friday, and issued oil rig counts to the petroleum industry since 1944. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 257 |
30,084 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 3.0M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 259 |
30,083 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.8M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 260 |
30,082 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.6M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward. | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 261 |
30,081 | Will the number of FBI firearms background checks initiated through the NICS exceed 2.4M for November 2024? | In the long term (since the turn of the 21st Century), firearms sales in the US have risen, surging in 2020, with numbers trending downward since. Starting in July 2024, year-over-year monthly numbers have again begun trending upward.` | yes | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 262 |
30,080 | Will Kalshi outrank Robinhood in the top free Finance apps on December 31, 2024? | This question represents an unfolding of events in which Kalshi continues building on its momentum, as surpassing the Robinhood app (currently ranked #22) would be considered quite a feat for a prediction market app. On October 11, 2024, the CEO of Kalshi [tweeted](https://x.com/mansourtarek_/status/184477082644631993... | no | 2024-11-20T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | resolved | 263 |
30,012 | Will the domestic opening weekend box office revenue of Mufasa: The Lion King exceed that of Sonic the Hedgehog 3? | [*Mufasa: The Lion King*](https://www.imdb.com/title/tt13186482/) is an upcoming American musical drama film directed by Barry Jenkins. It serves as a prequel to the 2019 adaptation of *The Lion King*, which grossed $191 million domestically in its opening weekend, ranking among the top 10 of all time. [*Sonic the Hedg... | no | 2024-12-19T23:00:00Z | 2024-11-21T15:30:00Z | resolved | 267 |
29,998 | Will Lainey Wilson or Chris Stapleton win the 2024 CMA Award for Single of the Year? | [58th Annual Country Music Association Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/58th_Annual_Country_Music_Association_Awards) | yes | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 268 |
29,996 | Will the Federal Register list 3 or more executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions) | yes | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 270 |
29,995 | Will the Federal Register list 1 or 2 executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions) | no | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 271 |
29,994 | Will the Federal Register list exactly zero executive orders by President Joe Biden for December 2024? | Ballotpedia: [Joe Biden's executive orders and actions](https://ballotpedia.org/Joe_Biden%27s_executive_orders_and_actions) | no | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 272 |
29,993 | Will the USDA-posted recall affecting Dearborn Sausage Company, Inc be closed before December 1, 2024? | According to Dayton Daily News on [September 12, 2024](https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/beef-pork-wiener-label-mix-up-leads-to-recall-undeclared-allergen/OU4NXTZP7VGX5KFQD64OPADGFE/), About 1,944 pounds of ready-to-eat wieners have been recalled by the Dearborn Sausage Company Inc. because beef products were label... | no | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 273 |
29,989 | On December 30, 2024, Will Nvidia have the largest market cap in the world? | As of October 5, 2024, Nvidia was the #3 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source. | no | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 277 |
29,988 | On December 30, 2024, Will Microsoft have the largest market cap in the world? | As of October 5, 2024, Microsoft was the #2 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source. | no | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 278 |
29,987 | On December 30, 2024, Will Apple have the largest market cap in the world? | As of October 5, 2024, Apple was the #1 company in the world by market cap, according to the resolution source. | yes | 2024-11-19T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-18T15:30:00Z | resolved | 279 |
29,954 | On December 31, 2024, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?
| This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).
Cruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 283 |
29,953 | Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2025?
| As of May 2023, US law does not have export controls on the sale of software services that include powerful generative AI. As such, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Microsoft can sell LLM-assisted document writing, image generation, video generation, etc. to enterprises worldwide (up to more general export controls not f... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 284 |
29,952 | Before January 1, 2025, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Benjamin Netanyahu? | In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials ... | yes | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 285 |
29,951 | Will Violet be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 286 |
29,950 | Will Blue be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 287 |
29,949 | Will Green be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 288 |
29,948 | Will Yellow be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 289 |
29,947 | Will Orange be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | yes | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 290 |
29,946 | Will Red be the closest color to the 2025 Pantone Color of the Year? | Each December, the Pantone Color Institute reveals its "[Color of the Year](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantone#Color_of_the_Year)", which influences design, fashion, and product development for the following year. This tradition of annual color selection has become a widely anticipated event in creative industries, ... | no | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 291 |
29,944 | Will Astro Bot win the Game of the Year 2024 award? | [The Game Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Game_Awards), launched in 2014 and founded by video game journalist Geoff Keighley, are widely recognized as one of the most prestigious annual events in the video game industry. The Game of the Year (GOTY) award honors a game that delivers the best experience across ... | yes | 2024-11-16T15:30:00Z | 2024-11-15T15:30:00Z | resolved | 293 |
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