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All right, so what we're calling this, enabling conditions hypothesis. I did send you an op-ed that was published, I think, about two years ago in a newspaper in Bangladesh, neither necessary, not sufficient. So this is what the idea was, neither necessary not sufficient. Three enabling conditions for effective transbo... |
oxygen caused fire. So this is the fundamental problem of causal effect or observing certain things by observing certain other things and trying to link them. So what I arguethat this is really fundamentally what scientific methods are all about. You take observations, then you formulate a hypothesis, and then you test... |
many variables and actors and institutions are interacting with each other, you simply cannot isolate cause and effect very cleanly. There are causes, of course, but those are not easily identifiable. As a result, you get into trouble. What happens really, you may identify something as cause, then very quickly you find... |
yes that basically soil will get saturated you'll get flood. So that means you need some conditions. So here rain is a necessary condition but it's not a sufficient condition. The problem of this type of analysis really came if you go back now where is this idea of necessary and sufficient cane. So I did dig basically ... |
could it be a function of time and perspective and experience and that there's not really a method to know that quickly? Yes, so we'll get into something basically. I did not have a chance to discuss this with you. So we are basically making distinctions now between two types of facts and this is part of the discussion... |
whether I am an atheist or I am agnostic or I am Muslim does not matter. You accept it that this is something that everybody thinks is good. And now think about what is happening with Iranian currency. It has been significantly devalued because of all this embargo that we have created. So that is really a paper. And th... |
there is oxygen. So my immediate conclusion could be that oxygen causes fire. Then that has to be questioned and refined over time. So let's go with this enabling. So what we are saying here that we need three enabling conditions. And I was carefully not to use this idea of necessary and sufficient anymore. So three en... |
India, although they are independently saying that yeah you are using our water and we are in a serious trouble, but they have never so far actively recognized this. As a result really what we argued that no I don't think they're going to go to any treaty, and they are not right now. Although there is a lot of noise, a... |
they did not recognize. Jordan did not recognize Israel is important or vice versa. So as a result it took a long time. In 1994 they came and basically they signed the peace treaty part of that was a water treaty too. So you just think about those two cases between Indus and Jordan then you get some to really what this... |
although this enabling condition didn't meet, but there is a treaty or negotiation. No, no, see, here we say the initially depleted and sustained. Yeah. So yes, you can have it because you have it for a there were some basically all the mutual value fully was not done but it was done partly. There were certain things d... |
even they have taken all all the water so that means they have to come up with alternative sources can they use groundwater can this basically store water during the flat season over extended period of the river that is what Bangladesh proposed in the Ganges bar So this is like a over 50 mile river that will be using a... |
I mean can this be used as a bargaining chip? So that is what I want to understand. Definitely yes I'll tell you something that is I think you hit it exactly right. So about three years ago when we have our water diplomacy workshop and they may remember we have four individuals from Bangladesh foreign ministry came fro... |
this is just not to be shared with Bangladesh government. So I think the difficulty that we have in Bangladesh, many of these ministries are extremely, I think I would say progressive, but there is no system memory. Meaning that water security is water security right now, suddenly he gets transferred to transportation,... |
so that was brilliant. That was brilliant. The question is basically why MIT president has to be a basically somebody has to come in and then appoint a body? Because they thought MIT is a good technical institution. They may still exist for 50, 60 years from now, and they will have no interest in Indian Pakistan. So th... |
otherwise you cannot do it. So fine. Number two is that you need to have a bachelor's. Unless you're getting an honorary degree. We're not talking about honorary degree. If you said, aren't PhD, you need to have a bachelor's. So which bachelor's? I do not know. It could be in political science. It could be in hydrology... |
necessary conditions does necessary conditions could be many. I'm telling you that you don't need more than these three. I can come up with many necessary conditions. It may not still satisfy all. And see, there's the reason I think, see, which one is the reason I think I want to get away from this necessary and suffic... |
so it is not possible to cover the mall. You got it. So this is basically a very large space. I may decide to walk. I may decide to take a plane. I'll take a bike. I'll take a bike and then I will take a boat or I have a donkey. So I essentially cannot exhaustively write down all the conditions. That's what the difficu... |
I mean, minimize minimize I don't know whether I could make sense or not but legal language sometimes tries to I mean cover all those all those conditions that you say that there are so many conditions. Sure. So this is where essentially now I think you got it exactly right so this is where basically although we don't ... |
how many things you can explicitly write what he or she do or does really as a president. We cannot do this. So we are assuming that certain things they will do because they are morally responsible individuals. I cannot be explicit about them because if I make it explicit then it becomes essentially routine as you said... |
how could I get water in my second floor bathroom? I get it because the water is pressurized. So I can create conditions that really the things can also violate the physical laws. Now when those physical laws are violated by human intentions, then you have a problem. Like for example, Ganges was flowing fine. India dec... |
this seven color comes in. There are seven colors of rainbow. There are seven heavens. There are all kinds of seven came into the picture. What is this three and seven then came from? I have only three color. Why do I have seven? Why do people say that there are seven colors in rainbow? In reality, if you go to the fun... |
but you can create a Shakespeare to what are diplomacy book and everything else in between by different combinations of letters. That is exactly the point really with these interconnected systems. Your building blocks may be very few, but the way those building blocks are interconnected and interdependent may create a ... |
this is really not true. The 760 million is not true. Why is not true? There are about 2 billion people lives in slums across the globe. From Dhaka slum to Bombay sl Islam to Nairobi Islam and from Brazil and these people are not even counted. Why are not they counted? Because most of them are in illegal government lan... |
nebulous that it's not clear exactly how they're going to measure this and how they're going to implement this. So access to water is not necessarily constant by availability to water really. It is something else. So when you want to talk about water crisis and your objective is to provide water to Islam in Bangladesh ... |
many years ago. How could you have a crisis then you are not resolving this crisis? So that means it's not a crisis. So why it's not? Let's say that I am generous. I want to make 50 liters, not 20. 50 per person per day. Give me 120 billion dollar. I can do it for everyone in the globe. Look at the global GDP, 85 trill... |
I think when you have to look at this problem really you need to look at this. There are natural domain problem there are societal domain problem these have been studied forever but they also happen in a politically real world so one in water diplomacy what we are arguing for last several years that look you need to un... |
they have multiplicity of values. So these are not basically unknown. What we are basically hoping to do with our order diplomacy framework is that we want to explicitly recognize this and see really how to at least adjust some of it so that we can go or we can be little bit better than what we were yesterday. See, I m... |
because we have no clue how it will happen. But only thing we have seen it. The problem even is that future could be even more unknown because we have no clue how it will happen. But only thing we have is past. So how do I create water management situations really by looking at the past knowing that future is unknown. ... |
it is not a random system either. So everything that you've learned in school now is really not becoming very useful because everything you learned is essentially either based on some classical physics which is deterministic equations or statistics. But we're arguing that for complex system neither will work. You need ... |
you have political systems. And what we argue that in what are diplomacy we try to mix them up and we say that all three are important and you need to be careful about all three you just cannot take one or the other and then your solution is not going to be very sustainable. So here how's the difference between the soc... |
we spent a lot of time thinking about those. So we kept them in a way that we don't need any more than this sex. And we have asked this question to many of these water diplomacy workshop attendees that, look, do I need anything else? Have we missed anything? Tell us something that we missed. So maybe we'll ask you the ... |
we were particularly interested in tools. And then we basically started working with Larry and we found out and that there is something called interest and positions and then we basically started working with Larry and we found out that there is something called interest and positions and then we need to talk about val... |
when this is couple, we are calling the now couple natural human system problem, to look for optimal solution is impossible. So that's a recognition we must have because this is a recognition at least oftentimes we do not have when we are coming from a technical domain. From a technical domain we want to find an optima... |
fine, then what did I learn? If everything depends on the context and everything is contingent and context. Then you say fine then what did I learn if everything depend on the context and everything is contingent why come to school just go and do it. That's where I think we'll give you some clue really with maybe with ... |
replicable, reproducible. Social fact would be how I feel about the temperature. I may feel perfectly fine and lady may feel perfectly hot with the same temperature. Although the thermometer is measuring same temperature, how both of us feels is quite different. That's a social fact that simply cannot be objectively de... |
please. Can you repeat again the example of the temperature with this to illustrate the difference between the subjective and objective? Okay, so just one second here. So objective facts would be, I would say, we'll go this into a little bit more detail also. So objective fact, I am defining it very sharply. So in my d... |
so we are doing well but in that book trust was not even mentioned once because he doesn't care really about trust so for him it's a scientific fact unless it is observable it's not scientific social fact in now I feel bad and we have too many people suffering from mental disease right now. Mental disease will become t... |
people are so confused. It's not the people are confused. People just simply cannot separate it out. Because you are giving so many facts and so many conflicting facts, so ultimately you remember the myth. Then most likely I'll die. Although the probability of your dying is extremely low, even if you get it. On the oth... |
you don't have an alternative narrative. You have no way to make any influence in the policymaking and the decision making. So that brings us to something that I like is that you remember when you talk about what a diplomacy framework we did not say that is model. It is not even a theory right now. So what is a framewo... |
refined and get into theory and hopefully into model someday. So what are the principles? The principle that we are trying to use here in principle pragmatic framework is this objective scientific method. So we'll say that there is an objective scientific method, these five senses, it allows me to do certain things in ... |
I would say the simple ways. We say that there are only three types of systems. And our first job is to identify that problem. And that's the diagnosis and characterization. So simple problems but this causal relationships are well understood. Complicated is often ambiguous but not easily identified but you can see ide... |
they needed to create a co-op undesirp in 1920s. So they created these by eliminating four villages. And there are still people complaining that that was not the right thing to do. So that's a complex problem where you have basically coupled a natural system with human systems. Now the system is in this case is knowabl... |
no I cannot give you a road map. Roadmap assumes that I know the road. So how do I know the road? I know the road because I've seen it in the past. So that means I'm assuming the past will essentially be similar in the future as well. If the future is a little bit different than the past, my past knowledge is not going... |
so let's say that we are confronted with the problem of Ganges Water Treaty. So let's take this as an example. Then we have to decide really when we talk about Ganges Water Treaty what are we talking about? So if you ask me right now I will say Ganges Water Treaty should primarily focus on the dry season flow. So now I... |
000 we only have four. How do I solve this problem? It's not easily resolvable then where essentially this whole idea of mutual value creation negotiation and discussion has to come in rooted in scientific facts. That's basically where I think you can think of really how to get around this mess because otherwise it bec... |
I don't want it to be a reductionist problem that basically it will not get affected by flood. So I need to be careful really. The lesser that dry season is eight months. These eight months will affected by other four months too. How that is the question. If they're cleanly separable, then it's easy, but they are not c... |
then how do I try to see really given the limited amount of water that I have, can I do both? If I cannot then do I have other options? What if I use groundwater? Can I use groundwater in a year and next year basically I have more rain it gets filled? With ground water also I cannot use it forever because it will get d... |
how do you prescribe then? The way you prescribe by understanding the capacity of the system, as well as the constraints that system imposes on you. What that means really, the capacity and constant for the Ganges between Bangladesh, India, will be quite different if you are trying to do it for the Nile between Egypt a... |
right? No, I don't. I think very good point. No question. So I think we have to be exactly, I think we need to bring in other, capacity is not fixed. Capacity can be enhanced, capacity can be reinforced, even I think can be built and even can be taken as an outside energy. So World Bank can create more basically can pu... |
you need to have the institutional capacity to do that. Sure. To build the institutional capacity to think and act systematically, to build the capacity to adapt, adapt, act adaptively. And so the person who's talking about taking action, I think, needs to think about the institutional design could the process that mak... |
to explain the problem. So let's explain from a scientific facts perspective. Then use the understanding, meaning the social facts, to actually address the problem. So what that means today is so let's this, you've seen before you will not go here. So I go here. So I use an illustrative case. The illustrative case is t... |
now you see this is a mess. And this is not new. And this is not even our mess. I think many people have created this type of mess. They call the system diagram and interaction diagram, whatever. And we are saying that this is really so old. Basically, it doesn't allow me to do anything. I just totally get paralyzed. S... |
they did not care. So as a result it emerges. Even that emergence did not really lead to any action. It took another 15 years before the day first the arsenic was detected in water then to actually create something at the government level. It took 15 years. Why did it that long? So that's what basically the system fail... |
without understanding anything else. So I basically went and started painting everything red. Because it's not in it, and it stopped cholera. So if I do this, arsenic will be stopped. Yes, it will be. The only difficulty there is that this is rural Bangladesh, number one. I have over 10 million wealth right now and not... |
we need to first find out a very sharp definition of the problem that you want to address. Then find out whether is this a simple problem, complicated problem or a complex problem. Then find out if it is a complex problem that what is the complexity coming from? Is the complexity coming from the scientific unknown or i... |
you have given rise to another set of problems. And this is also nothing new really. This has been done in with ladies department for many years from like Sean to other people. They have talked about these problems almost 50 years ago. That the idea of really when you're trying to do these social problems really by the... |
even if they decide to keep all the water in China, it will have no impact in India, although they are making that claim. So this is essentially a social myth they want to create. That China is creating a problem. But these are not based on facts. So what you want to do really with India is it possible to find some ver... |
if you look at this guy, you say that you need 10,000 hours to develop any sort of expertise. So between both of us, we probably spend more than 10,000 hours now. Hopefully we have some level of at least understanding expertise. Yeah, also, yeah, from our side. Yeah. For everybody in the class, right? The other people ... |
it's not going to work. So we need to refine that. But are there anything else you see really in terms of making it operational? What we are saying that, see at one point I said the complex systems, you don't have generalizable solutions, you don't have any prescription, but then we are giving you prescription too. So ... |
but thank you so much. Thank you very much. I look forward to the presentation starting next week. Okay. Bye bye. All right right. Bye-bye. Yeah. Thank you. Thank you. |
Today I am going to be giving you a full run-through of the Singapore-Malaysia water conflict. This is something I knew nothing about before the class, but I've really enjoyed learning more about during this process and applying things we've learned in the class this semester. So please ask questions if things are not ... |
and importation of treated water from Singapore to Johor. So this map shows a simple overview of the Johor River basin, and you can see the prominent Johor River in the Lingyu Reservoir, and then the dotted line represents the series of pipes that cross the Johor Strait. There is also complex river networks that offsho... |
state governments had almost complete control over surface water resources. So I guess there's, you can, so as a result, there's been a lot of issues of water management between the state government and the federal government, which has tried to become more involved as more issues arise kind of across the states that a... |
they have agreements in place to export water to both Singapore and Malacca. So the image here on the upper right is from part of a river and Joe for, and it was taken many years ago, so it's actually much harder to find natural river or like water resources that don't more resemble that bottom image where there's just... |
just due to restrictions and land area. So they then turned to the second two prongs of their strategy, which includes securing alternative water supplies through seawater desalination, wastewater reuse, which they're one of the most advanced systems in the world. They have a reclaimed water program called new water, a... |
which shows Singapore's plan for decreasing their reliance on imported water and increasing their reliance on reclaimed water from wastewater, which is the new water campaign, which currently supplies 30% of their water demand, but they have ambitious plans to be relying on it for about up to 55% by 2060. And then seaw... |
where the newspapers were not only publishing factual news coverage. There is also like increasingly negative partisan editorials and letters that were shared. So this combined with the lack of transparency from both governments went so far as like one point the governments were just communicating with each other throu... |
because he was a driving force preventing further water agreements from being reached during his like position as prime minister and unfortunately for water diplomacy he governed two times separately and basically has a very primary focus on water pricing and wanting to increase water prices for Singapore and unfortuna... |
Minister Vivian has been quite involved in the diplomatic relations with Malaysia and they're the ones who would be responsible for signing any official agreements between Malaysia and Singapore. So in my paper I have like a pretty in-depth description of the terms of all four water agreements between Singapore and Mal... |
even though an update was necessary. It's like both sides kept asking for a little bit too much, so as a result, they got no agreement. So to this day, the water is still being sold for three cent per 1,000 gallons and 50 cents. So that will really come back later when I talk about what needs to be done. And finally, t... |
and this was filed with the United Nations. The 1998 and through 2003 water pricing negotiations were a time when Malaysia and Singapore were trying to negotiate another agreement that would last for 100 years to extend this deadline of 2061. Malaysia was motivated because they needed finances from Singapore to back th... |
and address the saltwater intrusion to the Johor River Basin. So that's an example of both Johor and Singapore were suffering from a reduced quality of water in the river basin. So Singapore agreed to fund a project that would improve these and ensure a longer term water resource. So now I would love to talk about the ... |
there's like kind of a negative error around the, like, agreements and signing a new agreement. So something that I recognized immediately is that there would need to be trust built between the stakeholders. So the first issue that needs to be addressed is how to build this trust and enhance cooperation between the dif... |
which is literally just a retreat for their leaders to meet joint ministerial committee meetings that happen on monthly and yearly basis. The ministers of both countries visit the other country to improve relations. And then they have recently created the Malaysia Singapore Joint Committee on the Environment, which is ... |
where Singapore has been actively trying to reduce its reliance on water from Johor while continuously granting requests from Joe for more treated water than agreed upon in the agreements at the same discounted rates. This is just to maintain goodwill between the two parties. And Singapore has prioritized enhancing the... |
as well as investing in alternative water supplies. They have one of the most advanced systems in the world for desolination and water reuse, as well as like very strict water quality tactics because they don't want to waste their own water. So I think that's one opportunity where both nations could benefit if Singapor... |
it needs the water. And while they say that they will be independent by 2061 that has not been proven. And I think furthermore an ongoing water relationship for Singapore is convenient because Singapore has already made long-term infrastructure investments and already have good existing relationships with the water rep... |
trying to become more resilient in the face of climate change. This part of the world is extremely vulnerable. And if Singapore and Malaysia and some of these other south eastern Asian countries and states joined together in their efforts to develop new technology and get better information, it would really benefit the... |
which in turn would ensure long-term water security for Singapore. The Malaysia could in turn offer increased water quantity to Singapore. This could be a practical mutual gains approach in respect to the water diplomacy framework. And secondly, the question would be that what is the public sentiment in Malaysia, given... |
definitely is negative and not very controlled. Like the information shared in Malaysia is not the same information shared in Singapore. Media is extremely regulated in both countries and is highly partisan. So as a result, it's really hard to change public opinion, but from what I understand, the public doesn't have m... |
that I guess is the threat of water security and like some parties would even say like, what would they do like, would they try to like fight Malaysia some kind of water war. Most people say no, but that's like basically why it's so urgent, why they don't want to wait until 10 years before, because already negotiations... |
but like a very advanced water recycling program so new water is what they're calling it. I have a manager from my internship that lives in Singapore and she always laughs at me when she says like in your country, you like water reclaimed water like to tap and she's like that sounds gross like no wonder no one likes it... |
Singapore is just really in the push to increase the amount of water that they are obtaining from non Malaysian sources. Thank you very much for congratulations again. Thanks. I just want to annotate the question of desal a little bit. Dissal nation now is completely solar powered. And the Israelis have created very ad... |
but it's going to be able to claim existing space at its edges and expand development on the water. And my sense is that it's not crazy to think that Singapore through desal, because it's got all of this area on the ocean, and water recycling, which is the most advanced in the world for municipal systems, and a space t... |
they got the idea from San Antonio instead of covering over the river and just dumping everything in it, they uncovered the river and they made it a attraction of the city which meant they had to do the pollution cleanup. And the level of pollution cleanup, I mean I've been working in Malaysia for a decade and even fro... |
it won't be so scary about its long-term need for all of Joyce's water. Two other things that have happened maybe since the maturedly you were looking at was published. One is that the Chinese developer has built a new city floating in the straits of Johor right between Johor, Malaysia, and Singapore. And it's Malaysia... |
butthe negotiation will include Johor even though it's a state I think they ought to encourage the involvement of Malacca which is another state which isn't assault in it in the same way and would benefit by part of being part of the deal. And I think we should expect that that solar-powered dissal will be very importa... |
which I think the threat of doing something with Indonesia is nuts just because of distance and because Indonesia has its own problems to worry about. And I think, so I think, and I think that this floating city, forest city, that's what they called it, forest city, 700,000 people on floor, floating platforms in wetlan... |
which is, but it's created the need for Malaysia national government and Singapore national government to work together on, they are alleging it's climate change, it's on sustainable development and the protection of wetlands and the protection of other resources. Sorry to go on. It's just, I think you did a beautiful ... |
the issue that you already mentioned. If you just describe in a way that can provide a systematic explanation of the things, I think that then the paper could be fantastic. It's already nice, but it can be further improved in that part. So, yeah. Do you think, Flora, your tone about the relationship between these two c... |
well, we did this because we're helping those states. Because they just can't swallow the idea of doing anything for or needing Malaysia. And I think you captured that tone very appropriately in your paper from the history. I think that's one of the interesting parts of reading so many very partisan articles. It's like... |
it's difficult. And I think there's also partly this is about the fact that the Muslim majority in Malaysia is in some ways losing control. I mean, it still gets who it wants elected, but and it's still 51% Muslim and Chinese though are really controlling industry in Malaysia. They're controlling wealth in Malaysia, wh... |
So hi everyone, today I'm new talking about the ongoing efforts to modernize the Columbia River Treaty, sort of the agenda. The Columbia River Treaty was originally signed in 1961, so I'm going to go through the historical context that led to that signature, talk about the 1961 treaty negotiations and outcomes. And the... |
which was signed to kind of come up with an approach for preventing and resolving disputes over the use of shared waters. It was it established an international joint commission to help the two countries carry out its provisions. And at the time disputes over water, most notably on the Niagara River and the East Coast,... |
Oregon, which is an industrial suburb outside of Portland and the town was completely submerged. 18,000 residents were displaced, 51 people will killed and the estimated property damage was over $100 million. So you can see here on the right picture of the town right after the flood. So the original treaty emerged in r... |
largely due to British Columbia needing to negotiate with the Canadian federal government to clarify issues of authority and responsibility. So that was sort of the original round of negotiation processes. And the treaty as it emerged has two primary focuses, hydroelectric power and flood control. The terms of the tree... |
the treaty made no explicit provision for other values such as water flow benefits for salmon and steelheads, continuing to exacerbate these ecosystem problems created by this era of hydropower expansion. So these are the three. Here you can see a map of all of the dams in this in the system. The three dams in Canada u... |
there were also negative impacts of the dams weren't necessarily equally shared by the two countries. So the United States had fairly significant adverse impacts on fish and salmon habitat and some losses of land. But in Canada, as a result of the three dams that were constructed, there was major flooding and dislocati... |
which is the word being used by the negotiators, there's sort of five main issues that have been raised during these ongoing conversations. This is not an exhaustive list, lots of other things that have been brought up as well. But I think it sort of summarizes the most significant arguments. So I'm going to walk throu... |
the dams built as a result of the treaty have altered the river's ecology and contributed to the decline of salmon fisheries. So in a 1995 opinion on the impacts of the entire Columbia River power system on salmon. Noah, the National Oceanographic Association, had set flow objectives at each of the Columbia River basin... |
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