question stringlengths 16 166 | possibilities float64 0 1 | label stringclasses 2
values | description stringclasses 17
values | created_time timestamp[s] | resolve_time timestamp[s] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will stage-3 trials of MDMA as a medical treatment be completed, with results submitted to the FDA, by 2021? | 0 | no | 2016-04-10T00:00:00 | 2021-01-01T00:00:00 | |
To the Stars! #4: Do Potentially Habitable Planets exist in orbit around Alpha Centauri A or B? | 0 | no | 2016-04-12T00:00:00 | 2020-09-27T00:00:00 | |
Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will Bernie Sanders be the Democratic Nominee? | 0 | no | 2016-04-13T00:00:00 | 2016-07-27T00:00:00 | |
Will the Allen Telescope Array discover anything in its SETI search of red dwarf stars over the next two years? | 0 | no | 2016-04-15T00:00:00 | 2019-04-01T00:00:00 | |
A is in the I of the beholder #4: Patently Obvious | 0 | no | 2016-04-15T00:00:00 | 2019-12-21T00:00:00 | |
Zapping Zika #1: First vaccine trials by January 2017? | 1 | yes | 2016-04-16T00:00:00 | 2016-09-02T00:00:00 | |
Zapping Zika #2: active transmission in the U.S. by August 2016? | 1 | yes | 2016-04-22T00:00:00 | 2016-08-26T00:00:00 | |
Zapping Zika #4: GMO Mosquitos in Puerto Rico? | 0 | no | 2016-04-22T00:00:00 | 2017-01-01T00:00:00 | |
Zapping Zika #3: 1 million infections in US and its territories by 2018? | 0 | no | 2016-04-22T00:00:00 | 2018-01-04T00:00:00 | |
Will we keep the global temperature rise by 2020 to < 1° C? | 0 | no | 2016-04-23T00:00:00 | 2021-01-16T00:00:00 | |
Will SpaceX launch for Mars in the 2018 window? | 0 | no | 2016-04-27T00:00:00 | 2018-02-08T00:00:00 | |
Will 2016 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history? | 0 | no | 2016-05-02T00:00:00 | 2016-09-16T00:00:00 | |
Will marijuana be voted legal in California in 2016? | 1 | yes | 2016-05-03T00:00:00 | 2016-11-09T00:00:00 | |
Will an independent conservative candidate gain a significant number of votes in the 2016 US Presidential election? | 0 | no | 2016-05-05T00:00:00 | 2016-11-09T00:00:00 | |
Progress in why the universe is 3+1 dimensional? | 0 | no | 2016-05-12T00:00:00 | 2017-05-01T00:00:00 | |
Apple virtual/augmented reality by 2020? | 0 | no | 2016-05-13T00:00:00 | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | |
Will Julian Assange still be in the Ecuadorian embassy at the start of 2018? | 1 | yes | 2016-05-17T00:00:00 | 2018-01-09T00:00:00 | |
Will the National Ignition Facility announce a shot at break-even fusion by start of 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-05-17T00:00:00 | 2017-01-01T00:00:00 | |
Will NASA (re)join the (e)LISA space mission for detecting gravitational waves? | 0 | no | 2016-05-23T00:00:00 | 2018-07-01T00:00:00 | |
Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-05-27T00:00:00 | 2017-01-20T00:00:00 | |
Will the Democratic Party control the U.S. Senate in 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-05-27T00:00:00 | 2017-01-20T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic series: efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1? | 0 | no | 2016-05-27T00:00:00 | 2019-06-19T00:00:00 | |
First human head transplant in 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-06-02T00:00:00 | 2018-01-09T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new airborne pathogen? | 0 | no | 2016-06-05T00:00:00 | 2019-03-25T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic Series: new mosquito-borne pathogen by 2019? | 0 | no | 2016-06-06T00:00:00 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | |
Will General Fusion meets its plasma temperature targets by mid-2020? | 0 | no | 2016-06-06T00:00:00 | 2020-06-01T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic series: how likely is emergence of a deadly new blood-borne pathogen? | 0 | no | 2016-06-07T00:00:00 | 2019-01-03T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic series: reported theft of a potential bioterror agent in US by 2020? | 0 | no | 2016-06-08T00:00:00 | 2019-12-30T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic series: will a terrorist group reportedly obtain viable bioweapon sample? | 0 | no | 2016-06-09T00:00:00 | 2019-01-11T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic series: a bioterror attack against crops or livestock by 2020? | 0 | no | 2016-06-09T00:00:00 | 2019-12-27T00:00:00 | |
Will possible evidence for a new light particle be independently confirmed? | 0 | no | 2016-06-09T00:00:00 | 2018-01-09T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic series: attack using a genetically engineered virus by 2020? | 0 | no | 2016-06-10T00:00:00 | 2020-01-04T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic series: federal funding of "gain of function research of concern" in 2016-18? | 1 | yes | 2016-06-11T00:00:00 | 2019-05-16T00:00:00 | |
Pandemic series: pathogen research rejected for publication as an information hazard? | 0 | no | 2016-06-13T00:00:00 | 2018-01-14T00:00:00 | |
Metaknowledge Experiment Part A: Will the UK vote for Brexit? | 1 | yes | 2016-06-16T00:00:00 | 2016-06-24T00:00:00 | |
Will Clinton pick Elizabeth Warren as VP? | 0 | no | 2016-06-17T00:00:00 | 2016-07-23T00:00:00 | |
Is market volatility set to strongly increase? | 0 | no | 2016-06-25T00:00:00 | 2016-08-04T00:00:00 | |
Will the California Drought end in 2017? | 1 | yes | 2016-06-26T00:00:00 | 2017-05-01T00:00:00 | |
Announcement of evidence for aliens by 2020? | 0 | no | 2016-06-27T00:00:00 | 2020-01-04T00:00:00 | |
Will the UK submit article 50 notification to the European Union this year? | 0 | no | 2016-06-29T00:00:00 | 2016-12-30T00:00:00 | |
Will a personal computer based on "The Machine" technology be put to market by end of 2018? | 0 | no | 2016-06-29T00:00:00 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | |
A posteriori statistics and five for seven or better on stock dips? | 0 | no | 2016-07-01T00:00:00 | 2016-10-21T00:00:00 | |
Transiting exoplanet within 5 parsecs by 2018? | 0 | no | 2016-07-04T00:00:00 | 2018-02-04T00:00:00 | |
Will police officers in the United States shoot and kill more than 1000 people in 2016? | 0 | no | 2016-07-07T00:00:00 | 2017-01-01T00:00:00 | |
Will the Pound be equal to or less than the Dollar by Dec. 30, 2017. | 0 | no | 2016-07-08T00:00:00 | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 | |
Are we in a simulated reality? Part I | 0 | no | 2016-07-08T00:00:00 | 2018-06-05T00:00:00 | |
New Tesla "Top Secret Master Plan" revealed this week? | 0 | no | 2016-07-11T00:00:00 | 2016-07-18T00:00:00 | |
Will Edward Snowden tweet about Pokemon Go by July 26? | 0 | no | 2016-07-12T00:00:00 | 2016-07-26T00:00:00 | |
Major contentious CRISPR patent to be overturned? | 0 | no | 2016-07-14T00:00:00 | 2017-02-16T00:00:00 | |
Airships by 2019? | 0 | no | 2016-07-16T00:00:00 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | |
The Galaxy has disappeared from view for a third of humanity; will there be a growing movement to bring it back? | 0 | no | 2016-07-19T00:00:00 | 2016-12-30T00:00:00 | |
Will the banana plague reach Latin America? | 0 | no | 2016-07-19T00:00:00 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | |
Will the VITAL study show significant benefits of vitamin D and/or omega-3 supplementation? | 0 | no | 2016-07-21T00:00:00 | 2018-12-11T00:00:00 | |
Clinical trials of a "universal" snakebite antidote? | 0 | no | 2016-07-23T00:00:00 | 2018-01-26T00:00:00 | |
Funding for a study of anti-aging properties of the diabetes drug Metformin? | 0 | no | 2016-07-23T00:00:00 | 2017-10-21T00:00:00 | |
Zapping Zika #5: Clinical trials of IFITM3-based therapies? | 0 | no | 2016-07-23T00:00:00 | 2017-09-03T00:00:00 | |
Will Google release a chatbot in 2016? | 0 | no | Author, inventor, and computer scientist Ray Kurzweil is known as a public advocate for [the Singularity](http://www.singularity.com/), predicting that within decades, artificial intelligence will surpass that of human beings. In 2012, Kurzweil was [hired as Google’s Director of Engineering](http://blogs.wsj.com/digits... | 2016-07-30T00:00:00 | 2017-01-01T00:00:00 |
Will 538 ace the 2016 US presidential electoral map? | 0 | no | 2016-08-03T00:00:00 | 2016-11-09T00:00:00 | |
SpaceX's blueprint to Mars presented in late September? | 1 | yes | 2016-08-05T00:00:00 | 2016-09-28T00:00:00 | |
Will a small Turing machine (< 100 states) be found with behavior that cannot be characterized by mathematical proof? | 0 | no | 2016-08-07T00:00:00 | 2017-07-17T00:00:00 | |
Will 2017 be the warmest year on record? | 0 | no | 2016-08-13T00:00:00 | 2018-01-18T00:00:00 | |
A merger of Bayer and Monsanto by Q1 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-08-14T00:00:00 | 2017-03-30T00:00:00 | |
Will Wikileaks release a significant augmentation to the Equation Group cyberespionage archive? | 0 | no | 2016-08-18T00:00:00 | 2016-09-01T00:00:00 | |
Will the DC federal court grant class certification for an ongoing lawsuit against the government for “charging excessive fees to access court records through PACER”? | 1 | yes | 2016-08-18T00:00:00 | 2017-01-23T00:00:00 | |
1 dollar/watt solar energy by 2020? | 0 | no | 2016-09-02T00:00:00 | 2021-03-15T00:00:00 | |
20 more languages extinct by 2021? | 0 | no | 2016-09-02T00:00:00 | 2021-08-08T00:00:00 | |
All major causes of blindness preventable or treatable by 2020? | 0 | no | 2016-09-07T00:00:00 | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | |
Will AI automation of jobs be essentially ignored in the US presidential race? | 1 | yes | Dramatic recent progress in narrow (and arguably general) purpose AI has led to a myriad of practical but nascent technologies including autonomous vehicles, automated call-answering systems, highly automated factories, medical and legal expert systems, and so on.
While the automation of repetitive physical labor is ... | 2016-09-14T00:00:00 | 2016-10-20T00:00:00 |
Will Obama pardon Snowden? | 0 | no | 2016-09-14T00:00:00 | 2017-01-20T00:00:00 | |
World population forecast to peak before 2100? | 0 | no | 2016-09-20T00:00:00 | 2017-06-22T00:00:00 | |
2.5% S&P 500 change on November 9? | 0 | no | 2016-09-20T00:00:00 | 2016-11-10T00:00:00 | |
Stock market rise correlated with Clinton victory? | 0 | no | 2016-09-21T00:00:00 | 2016-11-10T00:00:00 | |
Will Disney own Twitter by the end of Q2 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-09-29T00:00:00 | 2017-06-25T00:00:00 | |
Will Metaculus add a meta discussion feature? | 1 | yes | 2016-09-30T00:00:00 | 2016-10-15T00:00:00 | |
Will the second Clinton-Trump debate move the market in real time? | 0 | no | 2016-10-02T00:00:00 | 2016-10-10T00:00:00 | |
Will the German Government bail out Deutsche Bank? | 0 | no | 2016-10-03T00:00:00 | 2017-01-09T00:00:00 | |
Will AI defeat human in the 2017 Angry Birds challenge? | 0 | no | [Angry Birds](https://www.angrybirds.com/games/) is a game requiring prediction of the physics-based effects of different-property flying-impaired projectiles on various porcine-sourced structures. This includes aiming the birds, using their varied properties, and using explosions and other effects.
Video games compr... | 2016-10-05T00:00:00 | 2017-09-22T00:00:00 |
Will a poker bot beat the best human players at online multi-player No Limit Texas HoldEm? | 0 | no | Human beings are no longer the best players of the games of Chess or Go, but humans are still fighting the good fight on the poker table. Simple variants of poker have been conquered by the bots, but more complex versions are still being defended.
Texas HoldEm is the most popular form of poker, and its simplest varian... | 2016-10-07T00:00:00 | 2019-02-26T00:00:00 |
Artificial pancreas goes mainstream in 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-10-10T00:00:00 | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 | |
Will the hole in the Ozone layer shrink in the next 5 years? | 1 | yes | 2016-10-10T00:00:00 | 2021-01-03T00:00:00 | |
Will one of the verified oldest living persons in the world reach 120 years of age? | 0 | no | 2016-10-11T00:00:00 | 2023-01-18T00:00:00 | |
How strong will the winning effort of the Ocean Discovery X-PRIZE be? | 0 | no | 2016-10-14T00:00:00 | 2019-06-02T00:00:00 | |
Will the US election be decided by Nov. 11? | 1 | yes | 2016-10-17T00:00:00 | 2016-11-09T00:00:00 | |
Will there be any faithless electors in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College? | 1 | yes | 2016-10-21T00:00:00 | 2016-12-20T00:00:00 | |
Will Planet Nine Emerge from Hiding Soon? | 0 | no | 2016-10-22T00:00:00 | 2017-01-27T00:00:00 | |
Will there be a financial crisis in China in 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-11-03T00:00:00 | 2018-01-03T00:00:00 | |
How important are "time crystals"? | 0 | no | 2016-11-05T00:00:00 | 2016-12-30T00:00:00 | |
New ultrasound Alzheimer's treatment to clinical trial in humans by end of 2017? | 0 | no | 2016-11-05T00:00:00 | 2018-01-14T00:00:00 | |
Solid metallic hydrogen: how much impact? | 0 | no | 2016-11-05T00:00:00 | 2017-05-01T00:00:00 | |
Solid metallic hydrogen: will it superconduct at room temperature? | 0 | no | 2016-11-05T00:00:00 | 2018-01-04T00:00:00 | |
Will the Italian constitutional referendum pass? | 0 | no | 2016-11-12T00:00:00 | 2016-12-05T00:00:00 | |
Hofer for president in Austria on 4 December? | 0 | no | 2016-11-14T00:00:00 | 2016-12-04T00:00:00 | |
Will Donald Trump be the President of the United States on January 1, 2018? | 1 | yes | Donald J. Trump is the President-Elect of the U.S., making it extremely likely that he will assume the Presidential office in January 2017.
In addition to the usual mortal risks that might prevent a president from serving the second year of his term, the likelihood of either resignation or impeachment seem somewhat hi... | 2016-11-14T00:00:00 | 2018-01-09T00:00:00 |
More attention to potential evidence for a fifth fundamental force? | 0 | no | 2016-11-14T00:00:00 | 2017-01-09T00:00:00 | |
Is Arnold alive? | 0 | no | 2016-11-16T00:00:00 | 2016-12-05T00:00:00 | |
More "Live(s) you can save" in 2016? | 0 | no | 2016-11-18T00:00:00 | 2017-03-09T00:00:00 | |
Will the Extreme Light Infrastructure facility come online as planned in 2018? | 0 | no | 2016-11-22T00:00:00 | 2018-12-31T00:00:00 | |
Will the "Project Blue" campaign to kick-start a planet-imaging camera of Alpha Centauri reach its goal on Kickstarter? | 0 | no | 2016-11-26T00:00:00 | 2016-12-24T00:00:00 | |
Will recounts appreciably change US presidential vote count? | 0 | no | 2016-11-28T00:00:00 | 2016-12-14T00:00:00 | |
Will 2017 see the smallest extent of Arctic Sea ice in recorded history? | 0 | no | 2016-11-30T00:00:00 | 2017-09-19T00:00:00 |
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