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value | snapshot_time int64 1.74B 1.76B | snapshot_datetime stringdate 2025-01-16 00:00:00 2025-10-31 00:00:00 | close_time int64 1.74B 1.76B | close_datetime stringdate 2025-01-21 03:42:00 2025-11-07 15:00:00 | days_until_close float64 1.08 111 | resolution_time int64 1.74B 1.76B | community_pred_now stringlengths 3 295 | community_pred_1day stringlengths 3 295 | community_pred_3day stringlengths 3 294 ⌀ | community_pred_1week stringlengths 3 295 ⌀ | community_pred_2week stringlengths 3 294 ⌀ | community_pred_1month stringlengths 3 294 ⌀ | pred_1week_is_resolution bool 2
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values | forecaster_count_now float64 | range_min float64 -30,000,000,000 650B ⌀ | range_max float64 1.2 850B ⌀ | zero_point float64 -12,500 103 ⌀ | open_lower_bound bool 2
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
metaculus_31003 | 31003 | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31427/damascus-international-airport-departures-in-february-2025/ | In December 2024, Bashar al-Assad's regime [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime) after a swift opposition offensive, leaving Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and a coalition of opposition forces in control of key cities, including Damascus. Following that, on January 7, 2025, Damascus International A... | This question will resolve as the number of departures from the Damascus International Airport (IATA: DAM, ICAO: OSDI) for the dates February 1, 2025 to February 28, 2025, inclusive, according to [flightradar24](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/dam/statistics). | ["Geopolitics"] | [] | 1,737,014,400 | 2025-01-16T00:00:00 | 1,740,736,800 | 2025-02-28T02:00:00 | 43.083333 | 1,740,874,260 | 0.5243185998755455 | 0.5267115624151061 | 0.5820599090293029 | 0.5771403970445461 | 0.5771759975036104 | 0.6599038134767805 | false | false | 106.0 | 106.0 | null | 0 | 300 | -9.65 | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31002 | 31002 | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31426/large-non-contained-california-fires-on-feb-15-2025/ | California's wildfire season [traditionally peaks](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/weather/southern-california-fire-winds-dry.html) from late summer through early winter. However, in early January 2025, Southern California [is grappling](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/california-los-angeles-fire-pacific-palidade... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if on February 15, at 20:00 UTC, the [incidents page](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents) of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's website shows at least one fire under "Currently Active Incidents" with both
* at least 1,000 acres
* less than 80% containment. | ["Environment & Climate"] | [] | 1,737,014,400 | 2025-01-16T00:00:00 | 1,739,527,200 | 2025-02-14T02:00:00 | 29.083333 | 1,739,655,720 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.17 | 0.002 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30999 | 30999 | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31372/estimated-number-of-average-viewers-of-super-bowl-lix/ | The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the ... | This question will resolve as the average number of viewers of Super Bowl LIX, estimated by [Nielsen Media Research](https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/). | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,737,014,400 | 2025-01-16T00:00:00 | 1,739,080,800 | 2025-02-08T22:00:00 | 23.916667 | 1,739,292,000 | 0.7644082428338457 | 0.7284416212811651 | 0.7300153948578182 | 0.7306899292834962 | 0.7655977995396611 | 127713000.0 | false | true | 127713000.0 | 127713000.0 | null | 95,000,000 | 130,000,000 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_30987 | 30987 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31366/number-of-executive-orders-in-q1-2025/ | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
> In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government. The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Uni... | This question will resolve as the number of Executive Orders signed by Donald J. Trump in Q1 2025 (i.e., before April 1, 2025), according to [the Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders).
#### Note that this question closes early, on March 1, 2025. | ["Politics"] | [] | 1,737,014,400 | 2025-01-16T00:00:00 | 1,738,040,460 | 2025-01-27T21:01:00 | 11.875694 | 1,738,040,460 | 0.856175639057456 | 0.8514807825786163 | 0.8131767258821674 | 1.0 | null | null | false | null | above_upper_bound | null | null | 0 | 40 | null | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31282 | 31282 | Will the USDA-posted recall by Pork Dynasty Inc. of Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products issued September 27, 2024 be closed before March 1, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31750/will-the-usda-posted-recall-by-pork-dynasty-inc-of-ready-to-eat-fried-pork-skin-products-issued-september-27-2024-be-closed-before-march-1-2025/ | According to the USDA: "JPork Dynasty Inc., a Houston, Texas establishment, is recalling approximately 469 pounds of ready-to-eat fried pork skin products due to misbranding and an undeclared allergen, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) announced today. The product contains s... | This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Pork Dynasty Inc.'s Ready-to-Eat Fried Pork Skin Products is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/pork-dynasty-inc-... | [] | [] | 1,737,273,600 | 2025-01-19T00:00:00 | 1,737,459,720 | 2025-01-21T03:42:00 | 2.154167 | 1,740,018,840 | 0.41300000000000003 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | false | false | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_31281 | 31281 | How much will it rain in Brasília, Brazil in February 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31749/how-much-will-it-rain-in-brasilia-brazil-in-february-2025/ | Brasília, the capital city of Brazil, recently [had rain](https://brazilian.report/liveblog/politics-insider/2024/10/07/brasilia-longest-drought-ever/) after a record-breaking drought, characterized by 167 consecutive days of no rain. September 2024 was the [hottest September on record](https://portal.inmet.gov.br/noti... | This question resolves as the amount of measured and recorded cumulative rainfall (in millimeters) at the National Institute of Meteorology (INMET) weather station \[83377] BRASILIA - DF for the month of February 2025.
DETAILED INSTRUCTIONS:
1. Go to the INMET weather station map [here](https://mapas.inmet.gov.br/).
... | [] | [] | 1,737,273,600 | 2025-01-19T00:00:00 | 1,737,459,720 | 2025-01-21T03:42:00 | 2.154167 | 1,740,871,080 | 0.503278182368788 | 0.5200101629919104 | 0.4816895782368051 | 0.4816895782368051 | 0.4816895782368051 | 0.4816895782368051 | false | false | 119.2 | 119.2 | null | 0 | 400 | null | false | false | null | null | |
metaculus_31280 | 31280 | How many arms sales globally will the US State Department approve in February 2025? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31748/how-many-arms-sales-globally-will-the-us-state-department-approve-in-february-2025/ | The United States is the largest arms exporter in the world, [accounting for](https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf) 42% of global arms exports, with France and Russia tied for a distant 2nd, at 11%, and China in 4th place at 6%. | This multiple choice question resolves based on the total number of arms sales approvals by the US State Department listed at the Major Arms Sales [notifications page](https://www.dsca.mil/major-arms-sales/archive-date/202410) by the Defense Security Cooperation Agency for Febrary 2025, when accessed by Metaculus on or... | [] | [] | 1,737,273,600 | 2025-01-19T00:00:00 | 1,737,459,720 | 2025-01-21T03:42:00 | 2.154167 | 1,740,871,980 | [0.098, 0.391, 0.511] | [0.15430328738069987, 0.42284835630965006, 0.42284835630965006] | [0.16, 0.44, 0.4] | [0.16, 0.44, 0.4] | [0.16, 0.44, 0.4] | [0.16, 0.44, 0.4] | false | false | 5-9 | [0.0, 1.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["0-4", "5-9", ">9"] | |
metaculus_31003 | 31003 | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31427/damascus-international-airport-departures-in-february-2025/ | In December 2024, Bashar al-Assad's regime [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime) after a swift opposition offensive, leaving Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and a coalition of opposition forces in control of key cities, including Damascus. Following that, on January 7, 2025, Damascus International A... | This question will resolve as the number of departures from the Damascus International Airport (IATA: DAM, ICAO: OSDI) for the dates February 1, 2025 to February 28, 2025, inclusive, according to [flightradar24](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/dam/statistics). | ["Geopolitics"] | [] | 1,737,273,600 | 2025-01-19T00:00:00 | 1,740,736,800 | 2025-02-28T02:00:00 | 40.083333 | 1,740,874,260 | 0.5820599090293029 | 0.5838305003858016 | 0.5773360578536795 | 0.5584238360247376 | 0.5825193401159193 | 0.6579423879512116 | false | false | 106.0 | 106.0 | null | 0 | 300 | -9.65 | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31002 | 31002 | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31426/large-non-contained-california-fires-on-feb-15-2025/ | California's wildfire season [traditionally peaks](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/weather/southern-california-fire-winds-dry.html) from late summer through early winter. However, in early January 2025, Southern California [is grappling](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/california-los-angeles-fire-pacific-palidade... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if on February 15, at 20:00 UTC, the [incidents page](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents) of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's website shows at least one fire under "Currently Active Incidents" with both
* at least 1,000 acres
* less than 80% containment. | ["Environment & Climate"] | [] | 1,737,273,600 | 2025-01-19T00:00:00 | 1,739,527,200 | 2025-02-14T02:00:00 | 26.083333 | 1,739,655,720 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0.15 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 0.0 | false | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30999 | 30999 | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31372/estimated-number-of-average-viewers-of-super-bowl-lix/ | The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the ... | This question will resolve as the average number of viewers of Super Bowl LIX, estimated by [Nielsen Media Research](https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/). | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,737,273,600 | 2025-01-19T00:00:00 | 1,739,080,800 | 2025-02-08T22:00:00 | 20.916667 | 1,739,292,000 | 0.7300153948578182 | 0.7330468638361655 | 0.7389257407139357 | 0.7850932245726102 | 0.7374978203998388 | 127713000.0 | false | true | 127713000.0 | 127713000.0 | null | 95,000,000 | 130,000,000 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_30987 | 30987 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31366/number-of-executive-orders-in-q1-2025/ | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
> In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government. The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Uni... | This question will resolve as the number of Executive Orders signed by Donald J. Trump in Q1 2025 (i.e., before April 1, 2025), according to [the Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders).
#### Note that this question closes early, on March 1, 2025. | ["Politics"] | [] | 1,737,273,600 | 2025-01-19T00:00:00 | 1,738,040,460 | 2025-01-27T21:01:00 | 8.875694 | 1,738,040,460 | 0.8131767258821674 | 0.9734254078232497 | 1.0 | 1.0 | null | null | false | null | above_upper_bound | null | null | 0 | 40 | null | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31338 | 31338 | At the end of March 2025, will Wikipedia still list all these countries as "currently" blocking access to Twitter/X? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31814/will-wiki-still-list-all-as-currently-blocking-x/ | According to the resolution source, "Censorship of Twitter refers to Internet censorship by governments that block access to Twitter (officially known as X since July 2023). Twitter censorship also includes governmental notice and take down requests to Twitter, which it enforces in accordance with its Terms of Service ... | This question resolves as **Yes** if Wikipedia still lists Twitter (also known as X) as currently blocked in China, Iran, Myanmar, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, Turkmenistan and Venezuela at [this link](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Censorship_of_Twitter#Current) when accessed by Metaculus on or around April 1, 2025.... | [] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,737,728,580 | 2025-01-24T06:23:00 | 2.265972 | 1,743,532,680 | 0.112 | 0.9 | 0.886 | 0.886 | 0.886 | 0.886 | false | false | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_31337 | 31337 | What will be the monthly cargo volumes at the Port of NY–NJ for January 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31813/what-will-be-the-monthly-cargo-volumes-at-the-port-of-nynj-for-january-2025/ | Of the East Coast and Gulf Coast ports, the [Port of New York and New Jersey](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_of_New_York_and_New_Jersey#Container_terminals) is by far the biggest, handling [7.8 million TEUs in 2023](https://www.panynj.gov/port/en/our-port/facts-and-figures.html), which is [about 2/5th the total Eas... | This question resolves as the cargo volume for the Port of New York and New Jersey for January 2025. Cargo volume is defined as the total number of TEUs (table section Total TEUs, column Total) in Port Authority of New York and New Jersey's [published statistics](https://www.panynj.gov/port/en/our-port/facts-and-figure... | [] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,737,728,580 | 2025-01-24T06:23:00 | 2.265972 | 1,741,287,720 | 0.700993628939503 | 0.7545449810783588 | 0.7409846517894197 | 0.7409846517894197 | 0.7409846517894197 | 0.7409846517894197 | false | false | 720283.0 | 720283.0 | null | 530,000 | 800,000 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31322 | 31322 | What will US airline passenger volume be for Presidents' Day Weekend (February 14-17, 2025), according to the TSA? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31798/what-will-us-airline-passenger-volume-be-for-presidents-day-weekend-february-14-17-2025-according-to-the-tsa/ | According to [Islands Magazine](https://www.islands.com/1571280/avoid-flying-worst-days-year-your-sanity/): "Falling on the third Monday of February, this federal holiday can trace its origins to the celebration of George Washington's birthday, February 22. (The government still refers to it as Washington's Birthday). ... | This question resolves as the total volume of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) at its checkpoints for the four-day period from Friday February 14, 2025, through Monday February 17, 2025, inclusive. TSA posts the data at the following link: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volu... | [] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,737,674,580 | 2025-01-23T15:23:00 | 1.640972 | 1,739,929,500 | 0.47056968538525845 | 0.6822654387543359 | 0.6533019325640865 | 0.6533019325640865 | 0.6533019325640865 | 9901228.0 | false | true | 9901228.0 | 9901228.0 | null | 7,500,000 | 11,250,000 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31321 | 31321 | How many Grammy awards will Taylor Swift win in 2025? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31797/how-many-grammy-awards-will-taylor-swift-win-in-2025/ | Taylor Swift has 6 Grammy nominations: [Taylor Swift Addressed Her Grammy Nominations on Stage in Toronto With the Sweetest Speech](https://www.cosmopolitan.com/entertainment/celebs/a62917669/taylor-swift-reaction-2025-grammy-nominations/) | This multiple choice question resolves as the option corresponding with the number of Grammy awards won by Taylor Swift at the 67th Annual Grammy Awards. | [] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,737,674,580 | 2025-01-23T15:23:00 | 1.640972 | 1,738,580,280 | [0.6439999999999999, 0.29499999999999993, 0.051, 0.009999999999999998] | [0.35223170731707315, 0.4352317073170731, 0.16193902439024388, 0.05059756097560976] | [0.47743504531722053, 0.4012054380664653, 0.10631722054380664, 0.015042296072507552] | [0.47743504531722053, 0.4012054380664653, 0.10631722054380664, 0.015042296072507552] | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] | false | true | 0 | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["0", "1", "2", "3 or more"] | |
metaculus_31240 | 31240 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31703/most-votes-in-the-2025-ecuadorian-general-election/ | In May 2023, President Guillermo Lasso invoked the [*muerte cruzada*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada), a constitutional provision allowing the president to dissolve the National Assembly, to avoid a likely impeachment. This action dissolved both his presidency and the legislature, leading to [early electi... | This question will resolve as the candidate who has received the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election. If any other outcome occurs other than Daniel Noboa or Luisa González receiving the most votes in first round or if, for any reason, the first round does not happen before April 1... | ["Politics"] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,739,008,800 | 2025-02-08T02:00:00 | 17.083333 | 1,739,755,320 | [0.6185832471561531, 0.3608273009307135, 0.0205894519131334] | [0.6122620266120778, 0.3673490276356193, 0.02038894575230297] | [0.63, 0.35, 0.02] | [0.651084693877551, 0.3387591836734694, 0.010156122448979593] | [0.6120645161290321, 0.3665666666666667, 0.021368817204301074] | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0] | false | true | Daniel Noboa | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["Daniel Noboa", "Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez", "Another outcome"] | |
metaculus_31239 | 31239 | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31701/97th-academy-awards-winners-average-duration/ | A [very](https://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2023/10/trends-movies-are-longer) [common](https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2023/07/why-are-movies-sooooo-long-an-investigation) [sentiment](https://variety.com/2022/film/features/batman-spider-man-long-movie-runtimes-1235187797/) [nowadays](https://www.vox.com/culture/... | This question will resolve as the average movie duration in minutes for the movie corresponding with the 97th Academy Awards winners in the following categories:
* Best Picture
* Best Director
* Best Original Screenplay
* Best Adapted Screenplay
* Best Animated Feature
* Best International Feature Film
* Best Cinemato... | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,740,909,600 | 2025-03-02T02:00:00 | 39.083333 | 1,741,100,040 | 0.5686058317834649 | 0.5471877225070013 | 0.5349008504802388 | 0.5776449018840553 | 0.5823498937506623 | 0.5742664470361338 | false | false | 139.0 | 139.0 | null | 90 | 180 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31003 | 31003 | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31427/damascus-international-airport-departures-in-february-2025/ | In December 2024, Bashar al-Assad's regime [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime) after a swift opposition offensive, leaving Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and a coalition of opposition forces in control of key cities, including Damascus. Following that, on January 7, 2025, Damascus International A... | This question will resolve as the number of departures from the Damascus International Airport (IATA: DAM, ICAO: OSDI) for the dates February 1, 2025 to February 28, 2025, inclusive, according to [flightradar24](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/dam/statistics). | ["Geopolitics"] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,740,736,800 | 2025-02-28T02:00:00 | 37.083333 | 1,740,874,260 | 0.5773360578536795 | 0.5771403970445461 | 0.579931956106978 | 0.5654356171729575 | 0.6115830931440823 | 0.661162838913732 | false | false | 106.0 | 106.0 | null | 0 | 300 | -9.65 | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31002 | 31002 | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31426/large-non-contained-california-fires-on-feb-15-2025/ | California's wildfire season [traditionally peaks](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/weather/southern-california-fire-winds-dry.html) from late summer through early winter. However, in early January 2025, Southern California [is grappling](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/california-los-angeles-fire-pacific-palidade... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if on February 15, at 20:00 UTC, the [incidents page](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents) of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's website shows at least one fire under "Currently Active Incidents" with both
* at least 1,000 acres
* less than 80% containment. | ["Environment & Climate"] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,739,527,200 | 2025-02-14T02:00:00 | 23.083333 | 1,739,655,720 | 0.15 | 0.21 | 0.2 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.0 | false | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30999 | 30999 | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31372/estimated-number-of-average-viewers-of-super-bowl-lix/ | The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the ... | This question will resolve as the average number of viewers of Super Bowl LIX, estimated by [Nielsen Media Research](https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/). | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,739,080,800 | 2025-02-08T22:00:00 | 17.916667 | 1,739,292,000 | 0.7389257407139357 | 0.7306899292834962 | 0.7689043543387851 | 0.7714023926606285 | 0.7404916207869329 | 127713000.0 | false | true | 127713000.0 | 127713000.0 | null | 95,000,000 | 130,000,000 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_30987 | 30987 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31366/number-of-executive-orders-in-q1-2025/ | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
> In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government. The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Uni... | This question will resolve as the number of Executive Orders signed by Donald J. Trump in Q1 2025 (i.e., before April 1, 2025), according to [the Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders).
#### Note that this question closes early, on March 1, 2025. | ["Politics"] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,738,040,460 | 2025-01-27T21:01:00 | 5.875694 | 1,738,040,460 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | above_upper_bound | null | null | 0 | 40 | null | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_30819 | 30819 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31073/im-2-mission-successful-before-april-2025/ | After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.
One of them was Int... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, an Intuitive Machines lander has perfectly landed and the payload is delivered in a fully working state on the Moon. Otherwise it will resolve as **No**. | ["Space"] | [] | 1,737,532,800 | 2025-01-22T00:00:00 | 1,741,357,740 | 2025-03-07T06:29:00 | 44.270139 | 1,741,357,740 | 0.45 | 0.42 | 0.45 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 0.6 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_31368 | 31368 | What will be the return of the Egyptian stock market index, the EGX 30, in January 2025? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31862/what-will-be-the-return-of-the-egyptian-stock-market-index-the-egx-30-in-january-2025/ | Wikipedia: [Egyptian Exchange](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Egyptian_Exchange) | This multiple choice question resolves as the option corresponding with the percentage return of the [EGX 30](https://www.investing.com/indices/egx30-historical-data) for the month of January 2025. This will be calculated by dividing the reported price of the index for the final trading day of January 2025 by the final... | [] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,737,984,840 | 2025-01-27T05:34:00 | 2.231944 | 1,738,789,020 | [0.05054720812182741, 0.3063725888324873, 0.5055725888324873, 0.137507614213198] | [0.050496957403651115, 0.3333367139959432, 0.5454665314401623, 0.07069979716024341] | [0.04990180360721443, 0.33532865731462924, 0.5429118236472946, 0.07185771543086171] | [0.04990180360721443, 0.33532865731462924, 0.5429118236472946, 0.07185771543086171] | [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0] | [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0] | false | true | ≥0% and <5% | [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["Less than -5%", "\u2265-5% and <0%", "\u22650% and <5%", "Greater than 5%"] | |
metaculus_31250 | 31250 | Qual será a popularidade do presidente Lula ao final do primeiro trimestre de 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31714/qual-sera-a-aprovacao-de-lula-em-marco-de-2025/ | O terceiro mandato de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, iniciado em janeiro de 2023, tem sido marcado por desafios econômicos, negociações políticas complexas e iniciativas voltadas para a retomada de políticas sociais e ambientais. | Esta pergunta será resolvida com base da popularidade do presidente Lula ao final do primeiro trimestre de 2025 (março de 2025), conforme medido pelo Datafolha. 
1. A métrica de popularidade será calculada a partir da soma do percentual de entrevistados que avaliam o governo como "bom" ou "ótimo". 
2. A reso... | ["Politics"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,742,108,340 | 2025-03-15T23:59:00 | 49.957639 | 1,743,433,260 | 0.38360104714458493 | 0.4416771360900146 | 0.44995209404278874 | 0.47915716751782617 | 0.48360220199020376 | 0.4297670125932783 | false | false | 24.0 | 24.0 | null | 1 | 99 | null | false | false | null | null | |
metaculus_31240 | 31240 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31703/most-votes-in-the-2025-ecuadorian-general-election/ | In May 2023, President Guillermo Lasso invoked the [*muerte cruzada*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada), a constitutional provision allowing the president to dissolve the National Assembly, to avoid a likely impeachment. This action dissolved both his presidency and the legislature, leading to [early electi... | This question will resolve as the candidate who has received the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election. If any other outcome occurs other than Daniel Noboa or Luisa González receiving the most votes in first round or if, for any reason, the first round does not happen before April 1... | ["Politics"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,739,008,800 | 2025-02-08T02:00:00 | 14.083333 | 1,739,755,320 | [0.63, 0.35, 0.02] | [0.6306315261044176, 0.359359437751004, 0.010009036144578314] | [0.6287407407407407, 0.35828328328328324, 0.012975975975975974] | [0.6475082474226803, 0.34224123711340204, 0.010250515463917524] | [0.6414907786885244, 0.33810040983606554, 0.020408811475409835] | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0] | false | true | Daniel Noboa | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["Daniel Noboa", "Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez", "Another outcome"] | |
metaculus_31239 | 31239 | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31701/97th-academy-awards-winners-average-duration/ | A [very](https://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2023/10/trends-movies-are-longer) [common](https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2023/07/why-are-movies-sooooo-long-an-investigation) [sentiment](https://variety.com/2022/film/features/batman-spider-man-long-movie-runtimes-1235187797/) [nowadays](https://www.vox.com/culture/... | This question will resolve as the average movie duration in minutes for the movie corresponding with the 97th Academy Awards winners in the following categories:
* Best Picture
* Best Director
* Best Original Screenplay
* Best Adapted Screenplay
* Best Animated Feature
* Best International Feature Film
* Best Cinemato... | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,740,909,600 | 2025-03-02T02:00:00 | 36.083333 | 1,741,100,040 | 0.5349008504802388 | 0.5947386024789436 | 0.5852123580294446 | 0.5762104292661921 | 0.5746153597959779 | 0.5743805892173806 | false | false | 139.0 | 139.0 | null | 90 | 180 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31209 | 31209 | O Brasil atingirá o limite de 800 vagas de pedidos no Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) da fase V até 31 de março de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31658/o-brasil-esgotara-os-800-pedidos-de-patentes-em-2025/ | O Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) é uma iniciativa internacional que permite o exame prioritário de pedidos de patentes entre países participantes, acelerando o processo de análise e concessão. No Brasil, o [Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial (INPI)](https://www.gov.br/inpi) implementou o PPH como parte de s... | O limite de 800 vagas será considerado atingido quando o **INPI** anunciar oficialmente que todas as vagas do PPH da fase V foram preenchidas até 31 de março de 2025.
A resolução será baseada em comunicados oficiais do **INPI** publicados no site ou boletins oficiais que confirmem o esgotamento das vagas do PPH.
Font... | ["Technology"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,480,060 | 2025-03-31T21:01:00 | 65.834028 | 1,743,480,060 | 0.7 | 0.74 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.75 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_31208 | 31208 | O Brasil registrará piora nas queimadas no primeiro trimestre de 2025, comparando com o mesmo período de 2024? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31657/o-brasil-registrara-piora-das-queimadas-em-2025/ | As queimadas são um dos maiores desafios ambientais enfrentados pelo Brasil, com impactos significativos na biodiversidade, qualidade do ar e mudanças climáticas. Regiões como a Amazônia, o Cerrado e o Pantanal são frequentemente atingidas por focos de incêndio, muitas vezes relacionados a práticas de desmatamento ileg... | A pergunta será resolvida com base nos dados oficiais de focos de queimadas registrados pelo [Sistema Queimadas do INPE](https://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br), que publica números consolidados mensalmente.**** 
Considera-se "piora" um aumento no total de focos de queimadas registrados no Brasil durante o primeiro trimest... | ["Environment & Climate"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,490,740 | 2025-03-31T23:59:00 | 65.957639 | 1,743,519,660 | 0.59 | 0.67 | 0.62 | 0.619 | 0.62 | 0.7 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_31003 | 31003 | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31427/damascus-international-airport-departures-in-february-2025/ | In December 2024, Bashar al-Assad's regime [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime) after a swift opposition offensive, leaving Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and a coalition of opposition forces in control of key cities, including Damascus. Following that, on January 7, 2025, Damascus International A... | This question will resolve as the number of departures from the Damascus International Airport (IATA: DAM, ICAO: OSDI) for the dates February 1, 2025 to February 28, 2025, inclusive, according to [flightradar24](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/dam/statistics). | ["Geopolitics"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,740,736,800 | 2025-02-28T02:00:00 | 34.083333 | 1,740,874,260 | 0.579931956106978 | 0.5584238360247376 | 0.551063672159836 | 0.5838208509692517 | 0.6325165461169406 | 0.6696404826480458 | false | false | 106.0 | 106.0 | null | 0 | 300 | -9.65 | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31002 | 31002 | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31426/large-non-contained-california-fires-on-feb-15-2025/ | California's wildfire season [traditionally peaks](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/weather/southern-california-fire-winds-dry.html) from late summer through early winter. However, in early January 2025, Southern California [is grappling](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/california-los-angeles-fire-pacific-palidade... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if on February 15, at 20:00 UTC, the [incidents page](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents) of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's website shows at least one fire under "Currently Active Incidents" with both
* at least 1,000 acres
* less than 80% containment. | ["Environment & Climate"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,739,527,200 | 2025-02-14T02:00:00 | 20.083333 | 1,739,655,720 | 0.2 | 0.22 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.035 | 0.0 | false | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30999 | 30999 | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31372/estimated-number-of-average-viewers-of-super-bowl-lix/ | The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the ... | This question will resolve as the average number of viewers of Super Bowl LIX, estimated by [Nielsen Media Research](https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/). | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,739,080,800 | 2025-02-08T22:00:00 | 14.916667 | 1,739,292,000 | 0.7689043543387851 | 0.7850932245726102 | 0.7589358470855153 | 0.7700936457862154 | 0.7328719413296969 | 127713000.0 | false | true | 127713000.0 | 127713000.0 | null | 95,000,000 | 130,000,000 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_30987 | 30987 | How many executive orders will Donald Trump issue in Q1 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31366/number-of-executive-orders-in-q1-2025/ | According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_order):
> In the United States, an executive order is a directive by the president of the United States that manages operations of the federal government. The legal or constitutional basis for executive orders has multiple sources. Article Two of the Uni... | This question will resolve as the number of Executive Orders signed by Donald J. Trump in Q1 2025 (i.e., before April 1, 2025), according to [the Federal Register](https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders).
#### Note that this question closes early, on March 1, 2025. | ["Politics"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,738,040,460 | 2025-01-27T21:01:00 | 2.875694 | 1,738,040,460 | 1.0 | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | above_upper_bound | null | null | 0 | 40 | null | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_30929 | 30929 | Bolsonaro será denunciado pela Procuradoria-Geral da República por suposta tentativa de golpe de Estado no primeiro trimestre de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31288/bolsonaro-sera-denunciado-por-golpe-de-estado-em-2025/ | Nos últimos anos, o ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro enfrentou diversas investigações relacionadas ao seu governo, incluindo alegações de ataques às instituições democráticas brasileiras. Após os eventos de 8 de janeiro de 2023, quando manifestantes invadiram e depredaram as sedes dos Três Poderes em Brasília, surgiram que... | A pergunta será resolvida como "Sim" se a Procuradoria-Geral da República (PGR) apresentar uma denúncia formal contra Jair Bolsonaro ao Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) por suspeitas de participação ou tentativa de golpe de Estado até 31 de março de 2025.
* **Fonte Primária:**
A resolução será baseada em comunicados o... | ["Politics", "Law"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,739,926,200 | 2025-02-18T16:50:00 | 24.701389 | 1,739,926,200 | 0.26 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 1.0 | false | true | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30928 | 30928 | Qual será o crescimento do PIB brasileiro no primeiro trimestre de 2025 em comparação ao trimestre anterior? | numeric | % | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31287/crescimento-do-pib-brasileiro-no-primeiro-trimestre-de-2025/ | O Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) é o principal indicador econômico utilizado para medir a performance da economia de um país. Ele reflete a soma de todos os bens e serviços finais produzidos, indicando se a economia está em expansão ou retração. No Brasil, o PIB trimestral é calculado e divulgado pelo Instituto Brasileiro... | A pergunta será resolvida com base no dado oficial do crescimento do PIB brasileiro para o primeiro trimestre de 2025, divulgado pelo [IBGE](https://www.ibge.gov.br) na série de Contas Nacionais Trimestrais.
**Definição de Crescimento do PIB:**
Será considerado o crescimento do PIB no formato **variação percentual tri... | ["Economy & Business"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,476,340 | 2025-03-31T19:59:00 | 65.790972 | 1,748,883,840 | 0.5392405815589855 | 0.529537672825713 | 0.5292199693887111 | 0.5280444744543265 | 0.5403521139149486 | 0.5322067927917846 | false | false | 1.4 | 1.4 | null | -20 | 20 | null | false | false | null | null |
metaculus_30898 | 30898 | Qual será a taxa de desemprego do Brasil no primeiro trimestre de 2025? | numeric | % | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31242/desemprego-no-brasil-em-2025/ | A taxa de desemprego é um dos principais indicadores econômicos que refletem as condições do mercado de trabalho e a saúde da economia de um país. No Brasil, o desemprego é medido principalmente pela [Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua)](https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/home/pnadct/brasil), re... | 1. A pergunta será resolvida com base na taxa de desemprego oficialmente divulgada pelo **IBGE**, por meio da [PNAD Contínua](https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/home/pnadct/brasil), para o primeiro trimestre de 2025.
2. Considera-se como taxa de desemprego o percentual da força de trabalho economicamente ativa (pessoas de 14 an... | ["Economy & Business"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,476,340 | 2025-03-31T19:59:00 | 65.790972 | 1,746,029,040 | 0.21731273494219622 | 0.23499052318074815 | 0.24876646011277675 | 0.2888843695754527 | 0.3040506674888475 | 0.27675377312054567 | false | false | 7.0 | 7.0 | null | 0.1 | 30 | null | false | true | null | null |
metaculus_30894 | 30894 | O Brasil lançará oficialmente a sua moeda digital (Drex) até Março de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31217/drex-sera-lancado-em-2025/ | O **Drex** é a versão digital do real, desenvolvida pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) como parte de uma iniciativa para modernizar o sistema financeiro nacional. Classificado como uma Moeda Digital de Banco Central (CBDC), o Drex visa complementar o real físico, mantendo paridade de valor (1 Drex = 1 real). Seu objeti... | Considera-se "lançamento oficial" o momento em que o Drex é disponibilizado para uso pelo público em geral, conforme anúncio do Banco Central do Brasil.
**"Sim"**: Se, até **31 de março de 2025**, o Banco Central do Brasil anunciar oficialmente o lançamento do Drex, tornando-o disponível para uso público. A confirmaçã... | ["Economy & Business", "Cryptocurrencies"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,433,260 | 2025-03-31T08:01:00 | 65.292361 | 1,743,433,260 | 0.01 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.01 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30892 | 30892 | O "X" será alvo de um processo judicial no Brasil durante o primeiro trimestre de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31215/o-x-enfretara-processo-judicial-no-brasil-em-2025/ | O X (antigo Twitter) foi bloqueado de funcionamento no Brasil de 30 de agosto de 2024 até 8 de outubro de 2024, pelo ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal, Alexandre de Moraes, relator do mandado de intimação.
Tal decisão judicial foi tomada após a empresa, pertencente a Elon Musk, ter descontinuado as suas operações n... | **Considera-se "Sim"**: Se, entre **1º de janeiro de 2025 e 31 de março de 2025**, for registrado formalmente um processo judicial contra o **X** em qualquer tribunal brasileiro, conforme verificado em fontes públicas confiáveis (e.g., Tribunal de Justiça Estadual, Superior Tribunal de Justiça, Justiça Federal, ou outr... | ["Law", "Technology"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,433,260 | 2025-03-31T08:01:00 | 65.292361 | 1,743,433,260 | 0.62 | 0.5 | 0.25 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.12 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30890 | 30890 | O Marco Legal de Inteligência Artificial (IA) será aprovado na Câmara dos Deputados até Março de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31213/marco-legal-de-ia-sera-aprovado-ate-marco-de-2025/ | O Marco Legal de Inteligência Artificial é uma iniciativa legislativa no Brasil que visa regular o desenvolvimento e uso da IA no país. Ele busca estabelecer diretrizes éticas, técnicas e legais para o uso responsável da tecnologia, promovendo inovação enquanto mitiga riscos.
O processo legislativo inclui discussão em... | A pergunta será considerada **positiva ("Sim")** se o projeto do Marco Legal de Inteligência Artificial for **aprovado em votação no plenário da Câmara dos Deputados** até 31 de março de 2025 (23:59, horário de Brasília). A aprovação será reconhecida com base na publicação oficial no site da Câmara dos Deputados.
Caso... | ["Technology", "Politics", "Artificial Intelligence"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,433,260 | 2025-03-31T08:01:00 | 65.292361 | 1,743,433,260 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.15 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30821 | 30821 | Will Brazil face an increase in dengue cases in the first quarter of 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31075/epidemia-de-dengue-em-2025/ | Brazil has historically faced high rates of dengue cases, especially during the summer, when weather conditions such as high temperatures and heavy rainfall favor the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti mosquito. Dengue hemorrhagic fever, a severe form of the disease, is a growing concern due to the increase in the simu... | The answer "YES" will be considered if the sum of national cases registered until the end of March 2025 is greater than the sum of cases registered in the same period in 2024.
**Data sources:**
1. Widely disseminated media outlets, such as [Folha de São Paulo](https://www.folha.uol.com.br/), [Estadão](https://www.e... | ["Health & Pandemics"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,433,260 | 2025-03-31T08:01:00 | 65.292361 | 1,743,433,260 | 0.8 | 0.85 | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.73 | 0.7 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30819 | 30819 | Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon before April 1, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31073/im-2-mission-successful-before-april-2025/ | After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.
One of them was Int... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, an Intuitive Machines lander has perfectly landed and the payload is delivered in a fully working state on the Moon. Otherwise it will resolve as **No**. | ["Space"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,741,357,740 | 2025-03-07T06:29:00 | 41.270139 | 1,741,357,740 | 0.45 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 0.49 | 0.63 | 0.62 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30798 | 30798 | Qual será o preço médio da picanha na cidade de São Paulo no mês de Março de 2025? | numeric | R$/kg | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31041/preco-medio-da-picanha-em-sp-em-marco-de-2025/ | ### "Inflação da Picanha"
A "inflação da picanha" refere-se ao aumento significativo do preço deste corte nos últimos anos, que se tornou mais evidente após 2020. A alta demanda externa, especialmente da China, e o aumento nos custos de produção (como alimentação do gado e transporte) contribuíram para esse fenômeno. ... | Considera-se o valor por 1 kg de picanha computado pelo Instituto de Economia Agrícola da USP, referente ao mês de março de 2025, conforme divulgado no site [IEA-Preços Médios Varejo São Paulo](https://infoiea.agricultura.sp.gov.br/nia1/precos_medios.aspx?cod_sis=4). | ["Economy & Business"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,490,740 | 2025-03-31T23:59:00 | 65.957639 | 1,745,360,940 | 0.6904748334457718 | 0.7106091225752854 | 0.6820164896121023 | 0.6672460622866742 | 0.673124116399483 | 0.7014095596004236 | false | false | 81.31 | 81.31 | null | 40 | 100 | null | false | false | null | null |
metaculus_30652 | 30652 | O preço médio da gasolina no Brasil será maior do que R$7 por litro em Fevereiro de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30920/preco-da-gasolina-maior-que-r-7l-em-fevereiro-de-2025/ | O preço da gasolina no Brasil é influenciado por vários fatores, sendo os principais:
1. Preço do Petróleo no Mercado Internacional: Como o petróleo é a matéria-prima da gasolina, variações no preço do barril de petróleo no mercado global afetam diretamente o custo da gasolina.
2. Taxa de Câmbio: A gasolina é comprada... | Considera-se "SIM":
Considera-se atendido o critério quando, na primeira semana de março de 2025, a Petrobras divulgar, em seu site [oficial Petrobras](https://precos.petrobras.com.br/sele%C3%A7%C3%A3o-de-estados-gasolina), que o preço médio da gasolina entre os estados do Brasil, referente à média dos preços registr... | ["Economy & Business"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,740,772,740 | 2025-02-28T11:59:00 | 34.499306 | 1,741,305,600 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.12 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30623 | 30623 | Qual será a escola de samba campeã do grupo especial do carnaval de SP em 2025? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30887/escola-de-samba-campea-do-carnaval-sp-2025/ | O Carnaval foi trazido ao Brasil pelos colonizadores portugueses entre os séculos XVI e XVII, manifestando-se inicialmente por meio do entrudo, uma brincadeira popular.
A partir do século XX, a popularização da festa contribuiu para o surgimento do samba, estilo musical muito influenciado pela cultura africana, e do d... | Considera-se a Campeã do Grupo Especial a primeira colocada que possuir melhores média de notas declarada na apuração oficial dos jurados, transmitidos pela Emissora de TV Rede Globo e amplamente divulgado na internet. | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,740,772,740 | 2025-02-28T11:59:00 | 34.499306 | 1,741,126,080 | [0.045725773195876285, 0.02031340206185567, 0.07622061855670102, 0.0914680412371134, 0.07622061855670102, 0.07113814432989692, 0.045725773195876285, 0.05080824742268041, 0.07622061855670102, 0.08638556701030929, 0.0874020618556701, 0.05080824742268041, 0.045725773195876285, 0.17583711340206185] | [0.06983995703544575, 0.07195810955961332, 0.07513533834586465, 0.07619441460794844, 0.07195810955961332, 0.07195810955961332, 0.06242642320085929, 0.06666272824919442, 0.06560365198711064, 0.07619441460794844, 0.1069076262083781, 0.06242642320085929, 0.04759935553168636, 0.07513533834586465] | [0.05351521739130436, 0.05351521739130436, 0.07387826086956524, 0.08566739130434785, 0.07495000000000003, 0.07173478260869567, 0.0631608695652174, 0.04601304347826088, 0.06851956521739132, 0.08245217391304349, 0.11781956521739133, 0.06744782608695654, 0.0449413043478261, 0.09638478260869567] | [0.06365551839464884, 0.04716722408026756, 0.07244927536231886, 0.0779453734671126, 0.05486176142697883, 0.07684615384615387, 0.06585395763656635, 0.04936566332218507, 0.06585395763656635, 0.07244927536231886, 0.14499777034559647, 0.06585395763656635, 0.04386956521739131, 0.09883054626532888] | [0.0580241850683491, 0.05180336487907466, 0.06839221871713984, 0.0746130389064143, 0.06839221871713984, 0.07357623554153521, 0.06839221871713984, 0.06528180862250263, 0.07150262881177707, 0.07357623554153521, 0.1513364879074658, 0.06839221871713984, 0.03417770767613039, 0.07253943217665616] | [0.06183829787234041, 0.05764255319148935, 0.06918085106382978, 0.07232765957446807, 0.06918085106382978, 0.06918085106382978, 0.06288723404255317, 0.06288723404255317, 0.05974042553191488, 0.06918085106382978, 0.14889999999999998, 0.07337659574468085, 0.05029999999999999, 0.07337659574468085] | false | false | Rosas de Ouro | [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["Colorado do Br\u00e1s", "Barroca Zona Sul", "Drag\u00f5es da Real", "Mancha Verde", "Acad\u00eamicos do Tatuap\u00e9", "Rosas de Ouro", "Camisa Verde e Branco", "\u00c1gua da Ouro", "Imp\u00e9rio da Casa Verde", "Mocidade Alegre", "Gavi\u00f5es da Fiel", "Acad\u00eamicos do Tucuruvi", "Estrela do Terceiro Mil\u00eani... | |
metaculus_30595 | 30595 | Qual será a cotação do Dólar americano no período do Carnaval 2025 (Fevereiro)? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30845/cotacao-do-dolar-em-fevereiro-2025/ | A cotação do dólar em relação ao real brasileiro (BRL) reflete o valor de um dólar americano em termos de reais e é influenciada por diversos fatores, como taxas de juros, inflação, balança comercial, expectativas econômicas, e fatores políticos e geopolíticos.
A cotação pode variar constantemente, dependendo da ofert... | Considera-se o valor oficial de compra do dólar comercial, em reais, cotado pelo [Banco Central do Brasil](https://www.bcb.gov.br) no horário de fechamento do mercado, na data de 27/02/2025, o último dia útil antes do Carnaval 2025. | ["Economy & Business"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,740,684,480 | 2025-02-27T11:28:00 | 33.477778 | 1,740,684,480 | 0.46061161124456296 | 0.47976393558198915 | 0.46926067286828754 | 0.4639702826975482 | 0.4588910339789966 | 0.43993842125645805 | false | false | 5.8222 | 5.8222 | null | 3 | 10 | null | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_30414 | 30414 | Qual será a Escola de Samba Campeã (Grupo Especial) do Carnaval 2025 do Rio de Janeiro? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30645/escola-de-samba-campea-do-carnaval-rj-2025/ | O Carnaval foi trazido ao Brasil pelos colonizadores portugueses entre os séculos XVI e XVII, manifestando-se inicialmente por meio do entrudo, uma brincadeira popular.
A partir do século XX, a popularização da festa contribuiu para o surgimento do samba, estilo musical muito influenciado pela cultura africana, e do d... | Considera-se a Campeã do Grupo Especial a primeira colocada que possuir melhores média de notas declarada na apuração oficial dos jurados, transmitidos pela Emissora de TV Rede Globo e amplamente divulgado na internet. | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,740,772,800 | 2025-02-28T12:00:00 | 34.5 | 1,741,177,800 | [0.07535463917525774, 0.08961443298969074, 0.06415051546391755, 0.11202268041237116, 0.05803917525773197, 0.14767216494845364, 0.08248453608247425, 0.07535463917525774, 0.07433608247422682, 0.07535463917525774, 0.062113402061855685, 0.08350309278350518] | [0.07581742738589213, 0.08504149377593365, 0.07889211618257264, 0.07889211618257264, 0.07581742738589213, 0.13423651452282162, 0.07786721991701247, 0.07786721991701247, 0.07786721991701247, 0.07786721991701247, 0.07889211618257264, 0.08094190871369296] | [0.062360000000000006, 0.08004, 0.079, 0.08004, 0.07276000000000002, 0.13516, 0.08316000000000001, 0.08316000000000001, 0.079, 0.062360000000000006, 0.079, 0.10396000000000001] | [0.07738657171922686, 0.08341709053916584, 0.08040183112919635, 0.08341709053916584, 0.07939674465920653, 0.11055442522889118, 0.08341709053916584, 0.08241200406917602, 0.07437131230925739, 0.07738657171922686, 0.08040183112919635, 0.08743743641912514] | [0.07762040816326532, 0.0806448979591837, 0.08165306122448981, 0.08366938775510206, 0.0806448979591837, 0.10988163265306125, 0.08165306122448981, 0.0806448979591837, 0.07862857142857144, 0.07762040816326532, 0.0806448979591837, 0.08669387755102043] | [0.07769867211440247, 0.07971705822267622, 0.0807262512768131, 0.08173544433094998, 0.0807262512768131, 0.12109397344228807, 0.0807262512768131, 0.07870786516853934, 0.07668947906026559, 0.07668947906026559, 0.0807262512768131, 0.0847630234933606] | false | false | Beija-Flor de Nilópolis | [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["Unidos de Padre Miguel", "Imperatriz Leopoldinense", "Unidos do Viradouro", "Esta\u00e7\u00e3o Primeira de Mangueira", "Unidos da Tijuca", "Beija-Flor de Nil\u00f3polis", "Acad\u00eamicos do Salgueiro", "Unidos de Vila Isabel", "Mocidade Independente de Padre Miguel", "Para\u00edso do Tuiuti", "Acad\u00eamicos do Gra... | |
metaculus_28744 | 28744 | O Rio Grande do Sul sofrerá inundações até o final de Março de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28744/o-rs-sofrera-inundacoes-no-primeiro-trimestre-de-2025/ | O estado do Rio Grande do Sul sofreu inundações no período entre 27 de abril e 2 de maio, chegando a quantidade de 500 a 700 mm por chuva neste período. Defesa Civil do Rio Grande do Sul reportou 183 mortes.
Ao todo, 478 municípios gaúchos foram atingidos por inundações, quedas de barreiras e deslizamentos de terra.
... | Para entendimento do resultado "SIM":
Considera-se "inundação" o volume de chuvas acumuladas em um período sequencial de 5 dias, em qualquer momento do primeiro trimestre (de Janeiro a 31 de Março de 2025), com indíces de precipitação >= 300mm (maiores ou iguais a 300 mm de chuva).
Para esta ques desta questão, levare... | ["Environment & Climate"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,490,740 | 2025-03-31T23:59:00 | 65.957639 | 1,743,557,040 | 0.12 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.052 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_28562 | 28562 | Qual será a taxa de homicídios por 100 mil habitantes no Brasil em 2024? | numeric | per 100k | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28562/taxa-de-homicidios-por-100milhab/ | A taxa de homicídios é um indicador crítico para avaliar a segurança pública e o impacto de políticas governamentais voltadas à redução da violência. O Brasil, historicamente, tem apresentado taxas elevadas de homicídios, sendo um dos países com os maiores números absolutos de homicídios do mundo.\*\*\*\* A taxa de hom... | * Fonte Primária:
A pergunta será resolvida com base nos dados divulgados pelo **Fórum Brasileiro de Segurança Pública** [FBSP](https://forumseguranca.org.br) **em seu relatório anual, previsto para publicação em 2025, contendo a taxa de homicídios referente ao ano de 2024.**
* Fonte Alternativa:
Caso os dados do F... | ["Social Sciences"] | [] | 1,737,792,000 | 2025-01-25T00:00:00 | 1,743,476,340 | 2025-03-31T19:59:00 | 65.790972 | 1,747,152,360 | 0.22668648643840142 | 0.2921799570145422 | 0.2632348674689005 | 0.26783833024234005 | 0.2591312113019339 | 0.24575143779242406 | false | false | 21.2 | 21.2 | null | 0.1 | 99.9 | null | false | false | null | null |
metaculus_33887 | 33887 | Will Justin Trudeau cease to be Prime Minister of Canada before April 1, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34390/will-justin-trudeau-cease-to-be-prime-minister-of-canada-before-april-1-2025/ | AP: [Canada's Trudeau reshuffles his Cabinet as resignation calls mount and new election threat looms](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/canada-s-trudeau-to-shuffle-his-cabinet-amid-resignation-calls-and-rising-discontent/ar-AA1weqzn) | This question resolves as Yes if according to credible sources Justin Trudeau ceases to be the prime minister of Canada before April 1, 2025, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via any method. Otherwise, this question resolves as No. | [] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,738,288,800 | 2025-01-30T18:00:00 | 2.75 | 1,741,970,460 | 0.93 | 0.95 | 0.955 | 0.955 | 0.955 | 0.955 | false | false | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_33886 | 33886 | What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 8, 2025? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34389/what-premier-league-position-will-nottingham-forest-fc-be-in-on-march-8-2025/ | In the late 1970's, under the leadership of the legendary manager Brian Clough, [Nottingham Forest F.C. ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nottingham_Forest_F.C.#)("Forest") were title contenders for the [Premier League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League) (First Division at the time) - long regarded as the most... | This question will resolve as the league position of Nottingham Forest, as defined by the [official Premier League site](https://www.premierleague.com/tables), upon completion of Gameweek 28, which is currently scheduled for March 8, 2025. | [] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,738,288,800 | 2025-01-30T18:00:00 | 2.75 | 1,741,871,880 | [0.001, 0.04900000000000001, 0.27, 0.37000000000000005, 0.31000000000000005] | [0.004905789990186458, 0.0478694798822375, 0.30272227674190383, 0.3417801766437684, 0.30272227674190383] | [0.005082051282051282, 0.0816205128205128, 0.3367487179487179, 0.2551076923076923, 0.3214410256410256] | [0.005082051282051282, 0.0816205128205128, 0.3367487179487179, 0.2551076923076923, 0.3214410256410256] | [0.005082051282051282, 0.0816205128205128, 0.3367487179487179, 0.2551076923076923, 0.3214410256410256] | [0.005082051282051282, 0.0816205128205128, 0.3367487179487179, 0.2551076923076923, 0.3214410256410256] | false | false | 3rd | [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["1st", "2nd", "3rd", "4th", "\u22655th"] | |
metaculus_33885 | 33885 | Will Mike Johnson cease to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives before April 1, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34388/will-mike-johnson-cease-to-be-speaker-of-the-us-house-of-representatives-before-april-1-2025/ | ABC News: ['Total dumpster fire': Republicans fume over speaker's spending plan days from shutdown deadline](https://abc7.com/post/republicans-fume-speaker-mike-johnsons-spending-plan-days-shutdown-deadline/15668588/) | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2025, Mike Johnson has ceased to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**. | [] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,738,288,800 | 2025-01-30T18:00:00 | 2.75 | 1,743,467,460 | 0.035 | 0.02 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.016 | 0.016 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_33884 | 33884 | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34387/of-hostages-hamas-frees-after-jan-26-before-apr-5-25/ | As of January 23, 2025, Israel and Hamas [are observing a ceasefire](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx25g41d8r8o) that began on January 19, 2025, following 15 months of intense conflict. Despite the ceasefire, tensions persist. Israeli forces [have conducted](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-syria-leban... | This question will resolve as the total number of hostages that have been released by Hamas after January 26, 2025 and before April 5, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). | [] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,738,202,400 | 2025-01-29T18:00:00 | 1.75 | 1,744,053,300 | [0.044414959928762245, 0.08694390026714159, 0.3988227960819234, 0.1595975066785396, 0.3102208370436331] | [0.05205235602094241, 0.16665968586387434, 0.46880628272251307, 0.2083350785340314, 0.10414659685863875] | [0.05100512820512821, 0.12754358974358976, 0.4388, 0.22959487179487179, 0.15305641025641026] | [0.05100512820512821, 0.12754358974358976, 0.4388, 0.22959487179487179, 0.15305641025641026] | [0.05100512820512821, 0.12754358974358976, 0.4388, 0.22959487179487179, 0.15305641025641026] | [0.05100512820512821, 0.12754358974358976, 0.4388, 0.22959487179487179, 0.15305641025641026] | false | false | 30-39 | [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["\u22649", "10-19", "20-29", "30-39", "\u226540"] | |
metaculus_33883 | 33883 | Will North Korea test a nuclear weapon before April 1, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34386/will-north-korea-test-a-nuclear-weapon-before-april-1-2025/ | According to Wikipedia, "North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests, in 2006, 2009, 2013, twice in 2016, and in 2017." | This question resolves as **Yes** if before April 1, 2025, North Korea tests a nuclear weapon, according to [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting such as the [International Monitoring System’s ](https://www.ctbto.org/our-work/detecting-nuclear-tests) and the sources cited at Wikip... | [] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,738,202,400 | 2025-01-29T18:00:00 | 1.75 | 1,743,467,460 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.03 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_33882 | 33882 | What will be Donald Trump's net worth, according to Forbes, on March 31, 2025? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/34385/what-will-be-donald-trumps-net-worth-according-to-forbes-on-march-31-2025/ | Axios: [Donald Trump, crypto billionaire](https://www.axios.com/2025/01/19/donald-trump-crypto-billionaire) | This question resolves as the option corresponding with the net worth for Donald Trump according to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/profile/donald-trump/) on March 31, 2025. | [] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,738,202,400 | 2025-01-29T18:00:00 | 1.75 | 1,743,418,980 | [0.6416973293768545, 0.27656874381800195, 0.06201879327398614, 0.014778437190900096, 0.004936696340257171] | [0.6403613861386139, 0.24630198019801985, 0.06404950495049506, 0.03942079207920793, 0.009866336633663368] | [0.5815025906735751, 0.27423834196891195, 0.1030777202072539, 0.03090155440414508, 0.01027979274611399] | [0.5815025906735751, 0.27423834196891195, 0.1030777202072539, 0.03090155440414508, 0.01027979274611399] | [0.5815025906735751, 0.27423834196891195, 0.1030777202072539, 0.03090155440414508, 0.01027979274611399] | [0.5815025906735751, 0.27423834196891195, 0.1030777202072539, 0.03090155440414508, 0.01027979274611399] | false | false | 0-$6 billion, inclusive | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["0-$6 billion, inclusive", ">$6 billion and <$8 billion", "\u2265$8 billion and \u2264$10 billion", ">$10 billion and <$20 billion", "\u2265$20 billion"] | |
metaculus_31363 | 31363 | What will be the difference between the Arena Score of o3 and the next best model on Chatbot Arena, on April 5, 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31852/chatbot-score-difference-between-o3-and-other-models/ | [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) (previously hosted on [https://lmsys.org/)](https://lmsys.org/\)) is a [benchmarking platform](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) for large language models (LLMs). It uses an [Elo rating system](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elo_rating_system) similar to the one used in chess... | This question will resolve as the Arena Score for the highest-ranked version of o3 minus the Arena Score for the highest-ranked non-o3 model in the Overall category at the [Chatbot Arena](https://lmarena.ai/) Leaderboard as of April 5, 2025. If no o3 version is scored on Chatbot Arena on April 5, 2025, this question wi... | ["Artificial Intelligence"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,742,040,000 | 2025-03-15T05:00:00 | 46.166667 | 1,743,884,760 | 0.45101020442785383 | 0.6052228134847156 | 0.6821321970644674 | 0.5762882291723201 | 0.5137252067219005 | 0.0 | false | false | below_lower_bound | null | null | -30 | 30 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31360 | 31360 | How many hostages will Hamas release after January 26 and before April 5, 2025? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31849/hostages-released-by-hamas-between-jan-26-and-apr-5-2025/ | As of January 23, 2025, Israel and Hamas [are observing a ceasefire](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx25g41d8r8o) that began on January 19, 2025, following 15 months of intense conflict. Despite the ceasefire, tensions persist. Israeli forces [have conducted](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-war-syria-leban... | This question will resolve as the total number of hostages that have been released by Hamas after January 26, 2025 and before April 5, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). | ["Geopolitics"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,743,249,600 | 2025-03-29T05:00:00 | 60.166667 | 1,743,884,040 | [0.2409158878504673, 0.18512149532710281, 0.33390654205607473, 0.22231775700934578, 0.017738317757009348] | [0.11230508474576271, 0.5058079096045198, 0.24722033898305082, 0.10106214689265536, 0.0336045197740113] | [0.020610995850622406, 0.2580072614107884, 0.3405798755186722, 0.2569751037344399, 0.12382676348547716] | [0.001, 0.22003207964601773, 0.4324601769911505, 0.23764269911504426, 0.10886504424778763] | [0.001, 0.23132407407407407, 0.4391275720164609, 0.23132407407407407, 0.09722427983539095] | [0.001, 0.001, 0.6604644750795334, 0.2542343584305409, 0.08330116648992576] | false | false | 20-29 | [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["\u22649", "10-19", "20-29", "30-39", "\u226540"] | |
metaculus_31302 | 31302 | Will TikTok become available in the US on both the App Store and Google Play before April 5, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31771/tiktok-available-for-download-in-the-us-before-apr-5-2025/ | The United States Congress [passed a law](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/why-is-tiktok-being-banned-supreme-court-congress/) that bans TikTok from the US starting January 20, 2025, but President Trump [issued an executive order](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-executive-order-trump-0bbae2d2d6f102944f41bb75ad40ce69)... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point after January 25, 2025 and before April 5, 2025, TikTok is available for download in the US from both the App Store and Google Play without the use of VPNs or other technical workarounds. | ["Economy & Business", "Geopolitics"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,739,491,260 | 2025-02-13T16:01:00 | 16.667361 | 1,739,491,260 | 0.41 | 0.58 | 0.5 | 0.651 | 0.67 | 1.0 | false | true | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_31250 | 31250 | Qual será a popularidade do presidente Lula ao final do primeiro trimestre de 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31714/qual-sera-a-aprovacao-de-lula-em-marco-de-2025/ | O terceiro mandato de Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, iniciado em janeiro de 2023, tem sido marcado por desafios econômicos, negociações políticas complexas e iniciativas voltadas para a retomada de políticas sociais e ambientais. | Esta pergunta será resolvida com base da popularidade do presidente Lula ao final do primeiro trimestre de 2025 (março de 2025), conforme medido pelo Datafolha. 
1. A métrica de popularidade será calculada a partir da soma do percentual de entrevistados que avaliam o governo como "bom" ou "ótimo". 
2. A reso... | ["Politics"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,742,108,340 | 2025-03-15T23:59:00 | 46.957639 | 1,743,433,260 | 0.44995209404278874 | 0.47131665177802295 | 0.4742693867429967 | 0.4915971330756868 | 0.4899046065805427 | 0.428146208706727 | false | false | 24.0 | 24.0 | null | 1 | 99 | null | false | false | null | null | |
metaculus_31240 | 31240 | Who will get the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31703/most-votes-in-the-2025-ecuadorian-general-election/ | In May 2023, President Guillermo Lasso invoked the [*muerte cruzada*](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muerte_cruzada), a constitutional provision allowing the president to dissolve the National Assembly, to avoid a likely impeachment. This action dissolved both his presidency and the legislature, leading to [early electi... | This question will resolve as the candidate who has received the most votes in the first round of the 2025 Ecuadorian presidential election. If any other outcome occurs other than Daniel Noboa or Luisa González receiving the most votes in first round or if, for any reason, the first round does not happen before April 1... | ["Politics"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,739,008,800 | 2025-02-08T02:00:00 | 11.083333 | 1,739,755,320 | [0.6287407407407407, 0.35828328328328324, 0.012975975975975974] | [0.651084693877551, 0.3387591836734694, 0.010156122448979593] | [0.651084693877551, 0.3387591836734694, 0.010156122448979593] | [0.6343011664899257, 0.35518345705196186, 0.010515376458112409] | [0.6414907786885244, 0.33810040983606554, 0.020408811475409835] | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0] | false | true | Daniel Noboa | [1.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["Daniel Noboa", "Luisa Gonz\u00e1lez", "Another outcome"] | |
metaculus_31239 | 31239 | What will be the average duration of the 97th Academy Awards winning movies in the following seven categories? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31701/97th-academy-awards-winners-average-duration/ | A [very](https://www.thedartmouth.com/article/2023/10/trends-movies-are-longer) [common](https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2023/07/why-are-movies-sooooo-long-an-investigation) [sentiment](https://variety.com/2022/film/features/batman-spider-man-long-movie-runtimes-1235187797/) [nowadays](https://www.vox.com/culture/... | This question will resolve as the average movie duration in minutes for the movie corresponding with the 97th Academy Awards winners in the following categories:
* Best Picture
* Best Director
* Best Original Screenplay
* Best Adapted Screenplay
* Best Animated Feature
* Best International Feature Film
* Best Cinemato... | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,740,909,600 | 2025-03-02T02:00:00 | 33.083333 | 1,741,100,040 | 0.5852123580294446 | 0.5776449018840553 | 0.5853223026211072 | 0.593819086304259 | 0.5656230804542796 | 0.578408572397446 | false | false | 139.0 | 139.0 | null | 90 | 180 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31215 | 31215 | What Premier League position will Nottingham Forest F.C. be in on March 10, 2025? | multiple_choice | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31672/nottingham-forest-premier-league-position-q3-25/ | In the late 1970's, under the leadership of the legendary manager Brian Clough, [Nottingham Forest F.C. ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nottingham_Forest_F.C.#)("Forest") were title contenders for the [Premier League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League) (First Division at the time) - long regarded as the most... | This question will resolve as the league position of Nottingham Forest, as defined by the [official Premier League site](https://www.premierleague.com/tables), upon completion of Gameweek 28, which is currently scheduled for March 10, 2025. | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,740,787,140 | 2025-02-28T15:59:00 | 31.665972 | 1,741,447,200 | [0.020858193277310925, 0.11387815126050418, 0.19644642857142858, 0.28528571428571425, 0.383531512605042] | [0.010733695652173917, 0.09725543478260869, 0.2702989130434783, 0.28976630434782613, 0.3319456521739131] | [0.010299065420560749, 0.13428660436137074, 0.32026791277258565, 0.27687227414330223, 0.25827414330218074] | [0.001, 0.1467112970711297, 0.3944205020920502, 0.3121976987447699, 0.14567050209205024] | [0.001, 0.053144385026737975, 0.47881283422459897, 0.3425989304812834, 0.1244438502673797] | [0.001, 0.0020733549083063645, 0.4582491909385113, 0.37774757281553395, 0.16092988133764832] | false | false | 3rd | [0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0] | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | ["1st", "2nd", "3rd", "4th", "\u22655th"] | |
metaculus_31209 | 31209 | O Brasil atingirá o limite de 800 vagas de pedidos no Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) da fase V até 31 de março de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31658/o-brasil-esgotara-os-800-pedidos-de-patentes-em-2025/ | O Patent Prosecution Highway (PPH) é uma iniciativa internacional que permite o exame prioritário de pedidos de patentes entre países participantes, acelerando o processo de análise e concessão. No Brasil, o [Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial (INPI)](https://www.gov.br/inpi) implementou o PPH como parte de s... | O limite de 800 vagas será considerado atingido quando o **INPI** anunciar oficialmente que todas as vagas do PPH da fase V foram preenchidas até 31 de março de 2025.
A resolução será baseada em comunicados oficiais do **INPI** publicados no site ou boletins oficiais que confirmem o esgotamento das vagas do PPH.
Font... | ["Technology"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,743,480,060 | 2025-03-31T21:01:00 | 62.834028 | 1,743,480,060 | 0.74 | 0.73 | 0.73 | 0.732 | 0.75 | 0.746 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_31208 | 31208 | O Brasil registrará piora nas queimadas no primeiro trimestre de 2025, comparando com o mesmo período de 2024? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31657/o-brasil-registrara-piora-das-queimadas-em-2025/ | As queimadas são um dos maiores desafios ambientais enfrentados pelo Brasil, com impactos significativos na biodiversidade, qualidade do ar e mudanças climáticas. Regiões como a Amazônia, o Cerrado e o Pantanal são frequentemente atingidas por focos de incêndio, muitas vezes relacionados a práticas de desmatamento ileg... | A pergunta será resolvida com base nos dados oficiais de focos de queimadas registrados pelo [Sistema Queimadas do INPE](https://queimadas.dgi.inpe.br), que publica números consolidados mensalmente.**** 
Considera-se "piora" um aumento no total de focos de queimadas registrados no Brasil durante o primeiro trimest... | ["Environment & Climate"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,743,490,740 | 2025-03-31T23:59:00 | 62.957639 | 1,743,519,660 | 0.62 | 0.65 | 0.619 | 0.65 | 0.65 | 0.7 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_31003 | 31003 | How many commercial passenger flights will depart from Damascus International Airport in February, 2025? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31427/damascus-international-airport-departures-in-february-2025/ | In December 2024, Bashar al-Assad's regime [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fall_of_the_Assad_regime) after a swift opposition offensive, leaving Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and a coalition of opposition forces in control of key cities, including Damascus. Following that, on January 7, 2025, Damascus International A... | This question will resolve as the number of departures from the Damascus International Airport (IATA: DAM, ICAO: OSDI) for the dates February 1, 2025 to February 28, 2025, inclusive, according to [flightradar24](https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/dam/statistics). | ["Geopolitics"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,740,736,800 | 2025-02-28T02:00:00 | 31.083333 | 1,740,874,260 | 0.551063672159836 | 0.5654356171729575 | 0.5851291236633945 | 0.614486168879439 | 0.6545537633798968 | 0.7066681787265314 | false | false | 106.0 | 106.0 | null | 0 | 300 | -9.65 | false | true | null | null | |
metaculus_31002 | 31002 | Will there be any active, large, non-contained fires in California on February 15, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31426/large-non-contained-california-fires-on-feb-15-2025/ | California's wildfire season [traditionally peaks](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/08/weather/southern-california-fire-winds-dry.html) from late summer through early winter. However, in early January 2025, Southern California [is grappling](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/california-los-angeles-fire-pacific-palidade... | This question will resolve as **Yes** if on February 15, at 20:00 UTC, the [incidents page](https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents) of the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection's website shows at least one fire under "Currently Active Incidents" with both
* at least 1,000 acres
* less than 80% containment. | ["Environment & Climate"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,739,527,200 | 2025-02-14T02:00:00 | 17.083333 | 1,739,655,720 | 0.16 | 0.17 | 0.16 | 0.056 | 0.01 | 0.0 | false | true | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_31000 | 31000 | Will the government of Greenland officially announce a date for an independence referendum, before April 6, 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31373/greenland-announces-independence-referendum-by-apr-6-2025/ | Greenland, population 56,000, is [the largest non-continent island in the world](https://denmark.dk/people-and-culture/greenland) and has been settled for 4,000-5,000 years. As of the writing of this question, Greenland is a Danish territory which has been [self-governing since 1979](https://www.cfr.org/in-brief/what-w... | This question resolves as **Yes** if, before April 6, 2025, the government of Greenland or any of its agencies officially announce (according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) a specific date on which a referendum on independence from Denmark is scheduled. If no such announcement o... | ["Politics", "Geopolitics"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,742,749,140 | 2025-03-23T09:59:00 | 54.374306 | 1,743,901,920 | 0.3 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.1 | 0.07 | 0.04 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30999 | 30999 | What will be the estimated number of average viewers of Super Bowl LIX? | numeric | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31372/estimated-number-of-average-viewers-of-super-bowl-lix/ | The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the ... | This question will resolve as the average number of viewers of Super Bowl LIX, estimated by [Nielsen Media Research](https://www.nielsen.com/news-center/). | ["Sports & Entertainment"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,739,080,800 | 2025-02-08T22:00:00 | 11.916667 | 1,739,292,000 | 0.7589358470855153 | 0.7714023926606285 | 0.7655977995396611 | 0.7377411218304105 | 0.754307808718477 | 127713000.0 | false | true | 127713000.0 | 127713000.0 | null | 95,000,000 | 130,000,000 | null | true | true | null | null | |
metaculus_30929 | 30929 | Bolsonaro será denunciado pela Procuradoria-Geral da República por suposta tentativa de golpe de Estado no primeiro trimestre de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31288/bolsonaro-sera-denunciado-por-golpe-de-estado-em-2025/ | Nos últimos anos, o ex-presidente Jair Bolsonaro enfrentou diversas investigações relacionadas ao seu governo, incluindo alegações de ataques às instituições democráticas brasileiras. Após os eventos de 8 de janeiro de 2023, quando manifestantes invadiram e depredaram as sedes dos Três Poderes em Brasília, surgiram que... | A pergunta será resolvida como "Sim" se a Procuradoria-Geral da República (PGR) apresentar uma denúncia formal contra Jair Bolsonaro ao Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) por suspeitas de participação ou tentativa de golpe de Estado até 31 de março de 2025.
* **Fonte Primária:**
A resolução será baseada em comunicados o... | ["Politics", "Law"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,739,926,200 | 2025-02-18T16:50:00 | 21.701389 | 1,739,926,200 | 0.17 | 0.168 | 0.14 | 0.098 | 0.1 | 1.0 | false | true | yes | 1.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30928 | 30928 | Qual será o crescimento do PIB brasileiro no primeiro trimestre de 2025 em comparação ao trimestre anterior? | numeric | % | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31287/crescimento-do-pib-brasileiro-no-primeiro-trimestre-de-2025/ | O Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) é o principal indicador econômico utilizado para medir a performance da economia de um país. Ele reflete a soma de todos os bens e serviços finais produzidos, indicando se a economia está em expansão ou retração. No Brasil, o PIB trimestral é calculado e divulgado pelo Instituto Brasileiro... | A pergunta será resolvida com base no dado oficial do crescimento do PIB brasileiro para o primeiro trimestre de 2025, divulgado pelo [IBGE](https://www.ibge.gov.br) na série de Contas Nacionais Trimestrais.
**Definição de Crescimento do PIB:**
Será considerado o crescimento do PIB no formato **variação percentual tri... | ["Economy & Business"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,743,476,340 | 2025-03-31T19:59:00 | 62.790972 | 1,748,883,840 | 0.5292199693887111 | 0.536391886235694 | 0.5397493660941841 | 0.5432967042847673 | 0.5495331090835723 | 0.531905935629953 | false | false | 1.4 | 1.4 | null | -20 | 20 | null | false | false | null | null |
metaculus_30898 | 30898 | Qual será a taxa de desemprego do Brasil no primeiro trimestre de 2025? | numeric | % | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31242/desemprego-no-brasil-em-2025/ | A taxa de desemprego é um dos principais indicadores econômicos que refletem as condições do mercado de trabalho e a saúde da economia de um país. No Brasil, o desemprego é medido principalmente pela [Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios Contínua (PNAD Contínua)](https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/home/pnadct/brasil), re... | 1. A pergunta será resolvida com base na taxa de desemprego oficialmente divulgada pelo **IBGE**, por meio da [PNAD Contínua](https://sidra.ibge.gov.br/home/pnadct/brasil), para o primeiro trimestre de 2025.
2. Considera-se como taxa de desemprego o percentual da força de trabalho economicamente ativa (pessoas de 14 an... | ["Economy & Business"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,743,476,340 | 2025-03-31T19:59:00 | 62.790972 | 1,746,029,040 | 0.24876646011277675 | 0.25801204753469664 | 0.284717702968101 | 0.3154440261814351 | 0.3403885640433282 | 0.26424235363444176 | false | false | 7.0 | 7.0 | null | 0.1 | 30 | null | false | true | null | null |
metaculus_30894 | 30894 | O Brasil lançará oficialmente a sua moeda digital (Drex) até Março de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31217/drex-sera-lancado-em-2025/ | O **Drex** é a versão digital do real, desenvolvida pelo Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) como parte de uma iniciativa para modernizar o sistema financeiro nacional. Classificado como uma Moeda Digital de Banco Central (CBDC), o Drex visa complementar o real físico, mantendo paridade de valor (1 Drex = 1 real). Seu objeti... | Considera-se "lançamento oficial" o momento em que o Drex é disponibilizado para uso pelo público em geral, conforme anúncio do Banco Central do Brasil.
**"Sim"**: Se, até **31 de março de 2025**, o Banco Central do Brasil anunciar oficialmente o lançamento do Drex, tornando-o disponível para uso público. A confirmaçã... | ["Economy & Business", "Cryptocurrencies"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,743,433,260 | 2025-03-31T08:01:00 | 62.292361 | 1,743,433,260 | 0.001 | 0.004 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.007 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | |
metaculus_30892 | 30892 | O "X" será alvo de um processo judicial no Brasil durante o primeiro trimestre de 2025? | binary | https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31215/o-x-enfretara-processo-judicial-no-brasil-em-2025/ | O X (antigo Twitter) foi bloqueado de funcionamento no Brasil de 30 de agosto de 2024 até 8 de outubro de 2024, pelo ministro do Supremo Tribunal Federal, Alexandre de Moraes, relator do mandado de intimação.
Tal decisão judicial foi tomada após a empresa, pertencente a Elon Musk, ter descontinuado as suas operações n... | **Considera-se "Sim"**: Se, entre **1º de janeiro de 2025 e 31 de março de 2025**, for registrado formalmente um processo judicial contra o **X** em qualquer tribunal brasileiro, conforme verificado em fontes públicas confiáveis (e.g., Tribunal de Justiça Estadual, Superior Tribunal de Justiça, Justiça Federal, ou outr... | ["Law", "Technology"] | [] | 1,738,051,200 | 2025-01-28T00:00:00 | 1,743,433,260 | 2025-03-31T08:01:00 | 62.292361 | 1,743,433,260 | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.16 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.12 | false | false | no | 0.0 | null | null | null | null | null | null | null | null |
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YAML Metadata Warning:The task_categories "forecasting" is not in the official list: text-classification, token-classification, table-question-answering, question-answering, zero-shot-classification, translation, summarization, feature-extraction, text-generation, fill-mask, sentence-similarity, text-to-speech, text-to-audio, automatic-speech-recognition, audio-to-audio, audio-classification, audio-text-to-text, voice-activity-detection, depth-estimation, image-classification, object-detection, image-segmentation, text-to-image, image-to-text, image-to-image, image-to-video, unconditional-image-generation, video-classification, reinforcement-learning, robotics, tabular-classification, tabular-regression, tabular-to-text, table-to-text, multiple-choice, text-ranking, text-retrieval, time-series-forecasting, text-to-video, image-text-to-text, image-text-to-image, image-text-to-video, visual-question-answering, document-question-answering, zero-shot-image-classification, graph-ml, mask-generation, zero-shot-object-detection, text-to-3d, image-to-3d, image-feature-extraction, video-text-to-text, keypoint-detection, visual-document-retrieval, any-to-any, video-to-video, other
Forecast Snapshot Dataset
Source: metaculus Data Hash: 6f1cdfd9b3
Dataset Description
This dataset contains snapshots of prediction market data for AI agent evaluation.
Format
Each row represents a market snapshot at a specific point in time, including:
- Current community prediction
- Predictions 1 day, 3 days, 1 week, 2 weeks, 1 month later (or resolution)
- Final resolution (ground truth)
- Market metadata (question, close time, etc.)
Question Types
binary: Yes/No questions (scalar predictions)multiple_choice: Categorical options (array of probabilities for all options)numeric/discrete/date: Continuous predictions with percentiles
Note: In the Parquet file, arrays are stored as JSON strings. In the CSV file, arrays are stored as Python list representations.
Usage
import pandas as pd
# Load dataset (CSV or Parquet)
df = pd.read_csv("hf://datasets/chestnutforty/forecast-snapshots-metaculus-6f1cdfd9b3/snapshot_dataset.csv")
# or
df = pd.read_parquet("hf://datasets/chestnutforty/forecast-snapshots-metaculus-6f1cdfd9b3/snapshot_dataset.parquet")
# Filter to specific snapshot date
snapshot_date = "2025-01-01T00:00:00"
markets = df[df['snapshot_datetime'] == snapshot_date]
# Evaluate model predictions
# df['model_pred_now'] = your_model.predict(markets)
Configuration
See config.json for dataset creation parameters.
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