Evaluation Report: Spain Reference Personas Frontier v0.1
1. Scope
This report documents the measured release-level properties of spain-reference-personas-2025-v0.1. It evaluates the shipped bundle itself: package integrity, composition fidelity, household utility, token-budget behavior, benchmark structure, and disclosure metadata. It does not claim that cross-model benchmark lift has already been measured inside this release.
2. Evaluation protocol
| Dimension |
What was checked |
Primary metric |
| Package integrity |
Required configs, docs, and row counts |
Artifact inventory |
| Composition fidelity |
Match between intended and released population shares |
MAE and max absolute error in percentage points |
| Weight stability |
Whether weights remain mild rather than extreme |
min, p05, p50, p95, max |
| View efficiency |
Whether public prompt views remain compact and predictable |
average tokens, max tokens, pass rate |
| Benchmark completeness |
Whether families and held-out splits are fully populated |
counts by family and split |
| Household usefulness |
Whether economic and housing context is rich enough for analysis |
tenure, burden, constraint distributions |
| Governance signals |
Whether uncertainty and disclosure remain explicit |
tagged-row shares |
3. Headline results
| Metric |
Result |
Reading |
| Region share MAE |
0.022 pp |
Strong macro fidelity by region |
| Age share MAE |
2.95 pp |
Main remaining calibration gap |
| View budget compliance |
100% |
All public persona views pass their limits |
| Benchmark matrix |
9 families / 4 splits |
Full matrix populated |
| Weight stability |
0.9889 - 1.0551 |
No extreme design effects visible |
| High disclosure-risk rows |
0.418% |
Small flagged tail remains exposed |
4. Package integrity
| Artifact |
Rows |
| persona_core.parquet |
1,000,000 |
| household_core.parquet |
536,741 |
| persona_views.parquet |
6,350,524 |
| actor_state_init.parquet |
1,000,000 |
| benchmark_tasks.parquet |
1,800 |
| source_registry.parquet |
11 |
| field_provenance.parquet |
13 |
5. Composition fidelity
5.1 Metric definition
- MAE_pp = mean(abs(target_share - observed_share)) across the tested categories.
- Max absolute error is the largest category-level deviation in percentage points.
- Shares are interpreted as release-level composition checks, not downstream model outputs.
5.2 Regional fidelity
| Region |
Target |
Observed |
Error |
| Andalucía |
17.876% |
17.895% |
+0.019 pp |
| Cataluña |
16.360% |
16.345% |
-0.015 pp |
| Madrid |
14.244% |
14.194% |
-0.051 pp |
| Comunidad Valenciana |
10.656% |
10.617% |
-0.039 pp |
| Galicia |
5.695% |
5.726% |
+0.032 pp |
| Castilla y León |
5.028% |
5.068% |
+0.040 pp |
| País Vasco |
4.672% |
4.700% |
+0.028 pp |
Andalucia 17.90% ##################
Cataluna 16.35% #################-
Madrid 14.19% ##############----
Comunidad Valenciana 10.62% ###########-------
Galicia 5.73% ######------------
Castilla y Leon 5.07% #####-------------
Pais Vasco 4.70% #####-------------
Interpretation: regional alignment is strong enough for subgroup slicing and macro simulation by territory.
5.3 Age fidelity
| Age group |
Target |
Observed |
Error |
| 18-24 |
8.000% |
10.484% |
+2.48 pp |
| 25-34 |
13.000% |
16.996% |
+4.00 pp |
| 35-44 |
17.000% |
15.843% |
-1.16 pp |
| 45-54 |
19.000% |
14.840% |
-4.16 pp |
| 55-64 |
17.000% |
13.460% |
-3.54 pp |
| 65+ |
26.000% |
28.377% |
+2.38 pp |
18-24 +2.48 pp
25-34 +4.00 pp
35-44 -1.16 pp
45-54 -4.16 pp
55-64 -3.54 pp
65+ +2.38 pp
Interpretation: 25-34 is overrepresented and 45-64 is underrepresented. This is the main statistical weakness of v0.1 and the first target for a future recalibration pass.
6. Weight stability
| Statistic |
Value |
| Mean |
1.0000 |
| Min |
0.9889 |
| p05 |
0.9939 |
| p50 |
1.0009 |
| p95 |
1.0066 |
| Max |
1.0551 |
Interpretation: weights stay close to 1.0 and do not imply extreme survey-style reweighting behavior.
7. View-layer efficiency
| View |
Count |
Avg tokens |
Max tokens |
Utilization |
Pass rate |
| micro_card |
1,000,000 |
99.8 |
120 |
83.1% |
100.0% |
| standard_card |
1,000,000 |
175.7 |
212 |
70.3% |
100.0% |
| policy_view |
1,000,000 |
89.2 |
97 |
49.5% |
100.0% |
| consumer_view |
1,000,000 |
95.6 |
113 |
53.1% |
100.0% |
| culture_view |
1,000,000 |
105.8 |
153 |
58.8% |
100.0% |
| dialogue_view |
1,000,000 |
83.4 |
93 |
46.3% |
100.0% |
| extended_profile |
350,524 |
364.5 |
407 |
60.8% |
100.0% |
micro_card 99.8 / 120 ############--
standard_card 175.7 / 250 ##########----
policy_view 89.2 / 180 #######-------
consumer_view 95.6 / 180 #######-------
culture_view 105.8 / 180 ########------
dialogue_view 83.4 / 180 ######--------
extended_profile 364.5 / 600 ########------
Interpretation: compact cards remain genuinely compact, and long-form context stays optional rather than becoming the default burden for every prompt.
8. Household and economic usefulness
| Household metric |
Result |
| Average adults per household |
1.863 |
| Average minors per household |
0.560 |
| Households with minors |
38.013% |
| Tenure band |
Share |
| private_rent |
39.471% |
| mortgage |
21.837% |
| owner_outright |
21.602% |
| family_transfer |
11.990% |
| protected_rent |
5.100% |
| Housing-cost burden |
Share |
| moderate |
36.710% |
| low |
33.614% |
| high |
29.676% |
| Consumption constraint |
Share |
| managed |
36.882% |
| comfortable |
29.454% |
| tight |
22.080% |
| affluent |
11.584% |
| Tenure band |
High burden |
Moderate burden |
Low burden |
| private_rent |
53.2% |
37.8% |
8.9% |
| mortgage |
22.0% |
50.0% |
27.9% |
| owner_outright |
10.0% |
28.0% |
62.1% |
| family_transfer |
10.0% |
28.3% |
61.7% |
| protected_rent |
9.8% |
28.0% |
62.2% |
Interpretation: housing context is materially useful for policy, inflation, and consumer-choice work because rent, mortgage, and owner-outright households are not treated as interchangeable.
9. Benchmark completeness
| Family |
Tasks |
| policy_opinion |
200 |
| election_turnout |
200 |
| poll_response |
200 |
| event_reaction |
200 |
| media_trust |
200 |
| consumer_choice |
200 |
| culture_identity |
200 |
| multi_turn_social |
200 |
| future_expectations |
200 |
| Split regime |
Tasks |
| in_distribution |
450 |
| heldout_persona_seen_task |
450 |
| seen_persona_heldout_task |
450 |
| heldout_persona_heldout_task |
450 |
10. Governance signals
| Disclosure risk |
Share |
| low |
82.948% |
| moderate |
16.634% |
| high |
0.418% |
| Uncertainty level |
Share |
| low |
66.283% |
| medium |
20.049% |
| high |
13.668% |
11. Expert reading
- Sociologists: strongest for subgroup design, scenario prototyping, and synthetic survey rehearsal.
- Poll analysts: useful for persona-conditioned open-ended response simulation and split-based benchmark design, but not a substitute for field polling.
- Policy analysts: strongest on household and actor-state layers for event-reaction and tradeoff prompts.
- Economists and consumer researchers: useful for inflation shocks, trade-down behavior, housing-policy response, and price sensitivity scenarios.
12. Main remaining gaps
- Live benchmark-lift comparisons against actual models are not yet included.
- Cross-model transfer studies are not yet included.
- Prompt-sensitivity reruns are not yet included.
- Time-instability reruns are not yet included.
- Human-rater studies of narrative plausibility are not yet included.
- Formal disclosure attack studies beyond release-level tagging are not yet included.
13. Bottom line
- Strong package design for LLM evaluation and simulation.
- Strong regional fidelity and household/economic usefulness.
- Full token-budget compliance across the public view layer.
- Full benchmark matrix population.
- Age calibration remains the main open statistical improvement area.
- Cross-model benchmark lift still needs to be measured by downstream experiments rather than inferred from packaging alone.
