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"content": "Humana Inc. (HUM) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know\nBy Zacks Equity Research\nPublished on: 2023-03-17T13:00:07Z\n\nRecently, Zacks.com users have been paying close attention to Humana (HUM). This makes it worthwhile to examine what the stock has in store.\n\nArticle Content:\n\nHUM Quick QuoteHUM\nHumana (HUM Quick QuoteHUM - Free Report) has been one of the most searched-for stocks on Zacks.com lately. So, you might want to look at some of the facts that could shape the stock's performance in the near term.\nShares of this health insurer have returned -2.2% over the past month versus the Zacks S&P 500 composite's -3% change. The Zacks Medical - HMOs industry, to which Humana belongs, has lost 3.8% over this period. Now the key question is: Where could the stock be headed in the near term?\nWhile media releases or rumors about a substantial change in a company's business prospects usually make its stock 'trending' and lead to an immediate price change, there are always some fundamental facts that eventually dominate the buy-and-hold decision-making.\nRevisions to Earnings Estimates\nHere at Zacks, we prioritize appraising the change in the projection of a company's future earnings over anything else. That's because we believe the present value of its future stream of earnings is what determines the fair value for its stock.\nOur analysis is essentially based on how sell-side analysts covering the stock are revising their earnings estimates to take the latest business trends into account. When earnings estimates for a company go up, the fair value for its stock goes up as well. And when a stock's fair value is higher than its current market price, investors tend to buy the stock, resulting in its price moving upward. Because of this, empirical studies indicate a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock price movements.\nFor the current quarter, Humana is expected to post earnings of $9.47 per share, indicating a change of +17.8% from the year-ago quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate has changed +4.4% over the last 30 days.\nFor the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $28.06 points to a change of +11.2% from the prior year. Over the last 30 days, this estimate has remained unchanged.\nFor the next fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate of $31.78 indicates a change of +13.3% from what Humana is expected to report a year ago. Over the past month, the estimate has changed +0.2%.\nWith an impressive externally audited track record, our proprietary stock rating tool -- the Zacks Rank -- is a more conclusive indicator of a stock's near-term price performance, as it effectively harnesses the power of earnings estimate revisions. The size of the recent change in the consensus estimate, along with three other factors related to earnings estimates, has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) for Humana.\nThe chart below shows the evolution of the company's forward 12-month consensus EPS estimate:\n12 Month EPS\nProjected Revenue Growth\nWhile earnings growth is arguably the most superior indicator of a company's financial health, nothing happens as such if a business isn't able to grow its revenues. After all, it's nearly impossible for a company to increase its earnings for an extended period without increasing its revenues. So, it's important to know a company's potential revenue growth.\nFor Humana, the consensus sales estimate for the current quarter of $26.46 billion indicates a year-over-year change of +10.4%. For the current and next fiscal years, $103.56 billion and $112.42 billion estimates indicate +11.5% and +8.6% changes, respectively.\nLast Reported Results and Surprise History\nHumana reported revenues of $22.44 billion in the last reported quarter, representing a year-over-year change of +6.6%. EPS of $1.62 for the same period compares with $1.24 a year ago.\nCompared to the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $22.47 billion, the reported revenues represent a surprise of -0.12%. The EPS surprise was +10.96%.\nThe company beat consensus EPS estimates in each of the trailing four quarters. The company topped consensus revenue estimates two times over this period.\nValuation\nNo investment decision can be efficient without considering a stock's valuation. Whether a stock's current price rightly reflects the intrinsic value of the underlying business and the company's growth prospects is an essential determinant of its future price performance.\nWhile comparing the current values of a company's valuation multiples, such as price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-sales (P/S) and price-to-cash flow (P/CF), with its own historical values helps determine whether its stock is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued, comparing the company relative to its peers on these parameters gives a good sense of the reasonability of the stock's price.\nAs part of the Zacks Style Scores system, the Zacks Value Style Score (which evaluates both traditional and unconventional valuation metrics) organizes stocks into five groups ranging from A to F (A is better than B; B is better than C; and so on), making it helpful in identifying whether a stock is overvalued, rightly valued, or temporarily undervalued.\nHumana is graded A on this front, indicating that it is trading at a discount to its peers. Click here to see the values of some of the valuation metrics that have driven this grade.\nConclusion\nThe facts discussed here and much other information on Zacks.com might help determine whether or not it's worthwhile paying attention to the market buzz about Humana. However, its Zacks Rank #3 does suggest that it may perform in line with the broader market in the near term.\nHumana Inc. (HUM) - free report >>\nOur experts picked 7 Zacks Rank #1 Strong Buy stocks with the best chance to skyrocket within the next 30-90 days.\nRecent stocks from this report have soared up to +178.7% in 3 months - this month's picks could be even better. See our report's 7 new picks today, absolutely FREE.\nThis page has not been authorized, sponsored, or otherwise approved or endorsed by the companies represented herein. Each of the company logos represented herein are trademarks of Microsoft Corporation; Dow Jones & Company; Nasdaq, Inc.; Forbes Media, LLC; Investor's Business Daily, Inc.; and Morningstar, Inc.\nAt the center of everything we do is a strong commitment to independent research and sharing its profitable discoveries with investors. This dedication to giving investors a trading advantage led to the creation of our proven Zacks Rank stock-rating system. Since 1988 it has more than doubled the S&P 500 with an average gain of +23.96% per year. These returns cover a period from January 1, 1988 through October 2, 2023. Zacks Rank stock-rating system returns are computed monthly based on the beginning of the month and end of the month Zacks Rank stock prices plus any dividends received during that particular month. A simple, equally-weighted average return of all Zacks Rank stocks is calculated to determine the monthly return. The monthly returns are then compounded to arrive at the annual return. Only Zacks Rank stocks included in Zacks hypothetical portfolios at the beginning of each month are included in the return calculations. Zacks Ranks stocks can, and often do, change throughout the month. Certain Zacks Rank stocks for which no month-end price was available, pricing information was not collected, or for certain other reasons have been excluded from these return calculations.\n\nSource: Zacks Investment Research\n",
"timestamp_ms": 1679058007000,
"published_utc": "2023-03-17T13:00:07Z",
"article_url": "https://www.zacks.com/stock/news/2067225/humana-inc-hum-is-attracting-investor-attention-here-is-what-you-should-know",
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"[1][c] Company-Specific News",
"[2][a] Fundamental Analysis",
"[2][c] Stock Recommendations"
],
"label_time": [
"[2][a] Real-Time Market Developments",
"[1][a] Short-Term Retrospective (\u2264 3 months)",
"[3][a] Short-Term Outlook (Next 3\u20136 months)"
],
"label_sentiment": [
"[2][b] Mixed Outlook"
]
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