prompt stringlengths 324 9.71k | target stringlengths 323 4.03k | meta_json stringlengths 147 171 | format stringclasses 1
value |
|---|---|---|---|
Below is a LessWrong post by Zvi titled 'On (Not) Feeling the AGI'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Ben Thompson interviewed Sam Altman recently about building a consumer tech company, and about the history of OpenAI. Mostly it is a retelling of the story we’ve heard before, and if anything Altman is very good about p... | The list doesn't exclude Baumal effects as these are just the implication of:
> - Physical bottlenecks and delays prevent growth. Intelligence only goes so far.
> - Regulatory and social bottlenecks prevent growth this fast, INT only goes so far.
Like Baumal effects are just some area of the economy with more limited... | {"comment_id": "AxXr5gpLBqd9fY6Dv", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Zvi", "post_id": "aD2RA3vtXs4p4r55b"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Max Harms titled 'Thoughts on AI 2027'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
This is part of the MIRI Single Author Series. Pieces in this series represent the beliefs and opinions of their named authors, and do not claim to speak for all of MIRI.
Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 b... | > the median narrative is probably around 2030 or 2031. (At least according to me. Eli Lifland is smarter than me and says December 2028, so idk.)
Notably, this is Eli's forecast for "superhuman coder" which could be substantially before AIs are capable enough for takeover to be plausible.
I think Eli's median for "A... | {"comment_id": "7RQToQkKnRHrz55Y9", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Max Harms", "post_id": "Yzcb5mQ7iq4DFfXHx"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Raemon titled '2022 (and All Time) Posts by Pingback Count'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
For the past couple years I've wished LessWrong had a "sort posts by number of pingbacks, or, ideally, by total karma of pingbacks". I particularly wished for this during the Annual Review, where "... | It seems more informative to just look at top (inflation adjusted) karma for 2022 (similar to what habryka noted in the sibling). AI posts **in bold**.
- **AGI Ruin: A List of LethalitiesΩ**
- **Where I agree and disagree with EliezerΩ**
- **SimulatorsΩ**
- **What an actually pessimistic containment strategy looks lik... | {"comment_id": "BTsvuEKNDYSquRTDT", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Raemon", "post_id": "WYqixmisE6dQjHPT8"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Max Harms titled 'Thoughts on AI 2027'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
This is part of the MIRI Single Author Series. Pieces in this series represent the beliefs and opinions of their named authors, and do not claim to speak for all of MIRI.
Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 b... | > I generally don't think it's a good idea to put a probability on things where you have a significant ability to decide the outcome (i.e. probability of getting divorced), and instead encourage you to believe in pausing.
In this case, I can at least talk about the probability of a multi decade pause (with the motivat... | {"comment_id": "eCL8q5je6e6fdx8Lc", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Max Harms", "post_id": "Yzcb5mQ7iq4DFfXHx"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Fabien Roger titled 'Some negative steganography results'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Disclaimer: These are negative results and this post is below the normal quality bar I usually use. These were quick experiments (a couple of days of work) and I don’t have much expertise in RL. They... | > I have to say, it does seem a bit implausible to me that even GPT-3.5-turbo is unable to do so when GPT-3.5 is so powerful and your steganography instance is such a simple one.
The "poor man's RL" scheme I used here is quite weak (and perhaps poorly tuned). I suspect this is the primary issue, though limitations on ... | {"comment_id": "DAPh4X2tCnE9XzxLd", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Fabien Roger", "post_id": "EEvsL9cpgDAxAhTzt"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Sam Bowman titled 'The Checklist: What Succeeding at AI Safety Will Involve '.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Crossposted by habryka with Sam's permission. Expect lower probability for Sam to respond to comments here than if he had posted it (he said he'll be traveling a bunch in the comi... | Is your perspective something like:
> With (properly motivated) qualitatively wildly superhuman AI, you can end the Acute Risk Period using means which aren't massive crimes despite not collaborating with the US government. This likely involves novel social technology. More minimally, if you did have a sufficiently al... | {"comment_id": "gBKxjGhT6v7dSPZLs", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Sam Bowman", "post_id": "mGCcZnr4WjGjqzX5s"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by joshc titled 'How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
I’m not a natural “doomsayer.” But unfortunately, part of my job as an AI security researcher is to think about the more troubling scenarios.
I’m like a mechanic scrambling last-minute checks before Ap... | I think there are good reasons to expect large fractions of humans might die even if humans immediately surrender:
- It might be an unstable position given that the AI has limited channels of influence on the physical world. (While if there are far fewer humans, this changes.)
- The AI might not care that much or migh... | {"comment_id": "TQBY2EXg864idJNNf", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "joshc", "post_id": "KFJ2LFogYqzfGB3uX"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by William_S titled 'Principles for the AGI Race'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Crossposted from https://williamrsaunders.substack.com/p/principles-for-the-agi-race
Why form principles for the AGI Race?
I worked at OpenAI for 3 years, on the Alignment and Superalignment teams. Our goal w... | > Principle 1: Seek as broad and legitimate authority for your decisions as is possible under the circumstances
I would have focused more on transparency and informing relevant groups rather than authority/accountability.
(See also the comment from [Raemon](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/aRciQsjgErCf5Y7D9/principles... | {"comment_id": "NeMQ5SNbycYvwDL5d", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "William_S", "post_id": "aRciQsjgErCf5Y7D9"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Thane Ruthenis titled '"Humanity vs. AGI" Will Never Look Like "Humanity vs. AGI" to Humanity'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
When discussing AGI Risk, people often talk about it in terms of a war between humanity and an AGI. Comparisons between the amounts of resources at both sides' di... | > I think what's crucial here is that I think perfect alignment is very likely unattainable. If that's true, then we'll get some form of "value drift" in almost any realistic scenario. Over long periods, the world will start to look alien and inhuman. Here, the difficulty of alignment mostly sets how quickly this drift... | {"comment_id": "sdmBDgjmkA55R9csr", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Thane Ruthenis", "post_id": "xSJMj3Hw3D7DPy5fJ"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Buck titled 'I enjoyed most of IABIED'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
I listened to "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" today.
I think the first two parts of the book are the best available explanation of the basic case for AI misalignment risk for a general audience. I thought the las... | > I think at the very least you need to intervene to stop that feedback loop.
There's probably at least some disagreement here. I think even if you let takeoff proceed at the default rate with a small fraction (e.g. 5%) explicitly spent on reasonably targeted alignment work at each point (as in, 5% beyond what is pure... | {"comment_id": "H9rRrS4zJAzg7xJPG", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Buck", "post_id": "P4xeb3jnFAYDdEEXs"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by johnswentworth titled 'The Case Against AI Control Research'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
The AI Control Agenda, in its own words:
… we argue that AI labs should ensure that powerful AIs are controlled. That is, labs should make sure that the safety measures they apply to their powerf... | I don't really agree. The key thing is that I think an exit plan of *trustworthy AIs capable enough to obsolete all humans working on safety (but which aren't superintelligent)* is pretty promising. Yes, these AIs might need to think of novel breakthroughs and new ideas (though I'm also not totally confident in this or... | {"comment_id": "5JaAyF4gD2HsEvaQt", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "johnswentworth", "post_id": "8wBN8cdNAv3c7vt6p"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Jan_Kulveit titled 'Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Full version on arXiv | X
Executive summary
AI risk scenarios usually portray a relatively sudden loss of human control to AIs, outmaneuvering individu... | I (remain) skeptical that the sort of failure mode described here is plausible *if we solve the problem of aligning individual AI systems with their designers' intentions* without this alignment requiring any substantial additional costs (that is, we solve single-single alignment with minimal alignment tax).
This has ... | {"comment_id": "T7dGavv45Z8mrzdbC", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Jan_Kulveit", "post_id": "pZhEQieM9otKXhxmd"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Jan_Kulveit titled 'Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Full version on arXiv | X
Executive summary
AI risk scenarios usually portray a relatively sudden loss of human control to AIs, outmaneuvering individu... | The paper says:
> Christiano (2019) makes the case that sudden disempowerment is unlikely,
This isn't accurate. The post [*What failure looks like*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HBxe6wdjxK239zajf/what-failure-looks-like) includes [a scenario involving sudden disempowerment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HBxe6wdj... | {"comment_id": "rvS9jtQMQ7dEDPGmB", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Jan_Kulveit", "post_id": "pZhEQieM9otKXhxmd"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by johnswentworth titled 'The Field of AI Alignment: A Postmortem, and What To Do About It'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys and they both look under the streetl... | Some notes:
- I don't think this is the actual bottleneck here. Noteably, Eliezer, Nate, and John don't spend much of any of their time assessing research at all (at least recently) as far as I can tell.
- I don't think a public market will add much information. Probably better to just have grantmakers with more conte... | {"comment_id": "b2bgbs4GCsYukiHif", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "johnswentworth", "post_id": "nwpyhyagpPYDn4dAW"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Thomas Larsen titled "Introducing the Center for AI Policy (& we're hiring!)".
Post body (possibly truncated):
Summary
The Center for AI Policy is a new organization developing and advocating for policy to mitigate catastrophic AI risks.
We are hiring for a Government Affairs Director an... | > So far, I'm confident that our proposals will not impede the vast majority of AI developers, but if we end up receiving feedback that this isn't true, we'll either rethink our proposals or remove this claim from our advocacy efforts. Also, as stated in a comment below:
It seems to me that for AI regulation to have ... | {"comment_id": "xBPpbLsgfMuee72WY", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Thomas Larsen", "post_id": "unwRBRQivd2LYRfuP"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Zach Stein-Perlman titled 'DeepMind: Evaluating Frontier Models for Dangerous Capabilities'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
To understand the risks posed by a new AI system, we must understand what it can and cannot do. Building on prior work, we introduce a programme of new “dangerous ca... | I was considering a threat model in which the AI is acting mostly autonomously. This would include both self-exfiltration, but also trying to steer the AI lab or the world in some particular direction.
I agree that misuse threat models where the AI is e.g. being used to massively reduce the cost of swinging votes via ... | {"comment_id": "y3sodgbsGkHhLrXKt", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Zach Stein-Perlman", "post_id": "CCBaLzpB2qvwyuEJ2"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Joe Carlsmith titled 'Video and transcript of talk on "Can goodness compete?"'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
(This is the video and transcript of a public talk I gave at Mox in San Francisco in July 2025, on long-term equilibria post-AGI. It’s a longer version of the talk I gave at this... | By "defense dominant", I meant "the person who gets to resources first can defend them from other actors who want these resources cheaply" (or something roughly like this). Vacuum decay gets no one any resources, so it feels natural to pull out into a separate category. I agree that value systems which want vacuum deca... | {"comment_id": "uLtdENqdGCKQbweDP", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Joe Carlsmith", "post_id": "evYne4Xx7L9J96BHW"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by snewman titled "AI 2027 is a Bet Against Amdahl's Law".
Post body (possibly truncated):
EDIT: I've written a followup post, summarizing and responding to the key themes raised in the comments.
AI 2027 lies at a Pareto frontier – it contains the best researched argument for short timeli... | > I note that I am confused by this diagram. In particular, the legend indicates a 90th percentile forecast of ">2100" for ASI, but the diagram appears to show the probability dropping to zero around the beginning of 2032.
I think it's just that the tail is very long and flat with <1% per year. So, it looks like it go... | {"comment_id": "TygofbgeG6g9d562j", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "snewman", "post_id": "bfHDoWLnBH9xR3YAK"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Rubi J. Hudson titled 'Conditional Prediction with Zero-Sum Training Solves Self-Fulfilling Prophecies'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Thanks to Charlotte Siegmann, Caspar Oesterheld, Spencer Becker-Kahn, and Evan Hubinger for providing feedback on this post.
The issue of self-fulfillin... | > Pitting two models against each other in a zero-sum competition only works so long as both models actually learn the desired goals. Otherwise, they may be able to reach a compromise with each other and cooperate towards a non-zero-sum objective.
If training works well, then they can't collude on average during train... | {"comment_id": "GZT7Ns6gqLbb9NMLj", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Rubi J. Hudson", "post_id": "A48amesEmqD8KNSmY"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Richard_Ngo titled 'Succession'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
“A table beside the evening sea
where you sit shelling pistachios,
flicking the next open with the half-
shell of the last, story opening story,
on down to the sandy end of time.”
V1: Leaving
Deceleration is the hardest par... | Thanks for the story!
As far as
> Their message contains all the software that was too large for me to carry on board originally.
Is this actually plausible? I think it should be possible for data to be extremely dense to a point where a kilogram is easily sufficient for all the necessary software (other than update... | {"comment_id": "wGfdYXJNvPCv5HPJ2", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Richard_Ngo", "post_id": "CAzntXYTEaNfC9nB6"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Joel Burget titled 'Highlights from Lex Fridman’s interview of Yann LeCun'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Introduction
Yann LeCun is perhaps the most prominent critic of the “LessWrong view” on AI safety, the only one of the three "godfathers of AI" to not acknowledge the risks of advan... | Edit: habryka edited the parent comment to clarify and I now agree. I'm keeping this comment as is for posterity, but note the discussion below.
> My sense is almost everyone here expects that we will almost certainly arrive at dangerous capabilities with something else in addition to autoregressive LLMs
This exact s... | {"comment_id": "QCNudaT5D6wFLdTfD", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Joel Burget", "post_id": "bce63kvsAMcwxPipX"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Valentine titled 'Consider chilling out in 2028'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
I'll explain my reasoning in a second, but I'll start with the conclusion:
I think it'd be healthy and good to pause and seriously reconsider the focus on doom if we get to 2028 and the situation feels basic... | Naively, working more will lead to more output and if someone thinks they feel good while working a lot, I think the default guess should be that working more is improving their output. I would be interested in the evidence you have for the claim that people operating similar to Ben described should take more vacation.... | {"comment_id": "CWuRkEiyzMkq9XW4s", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Valentine", "post_id": "D4eZF6FAZhrW4KaGG"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by jasoncrawford titled 'Neither EA nor e/acc is what we need to build the future'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Over the last few years, effective altruism has gone through a rise-and-fall story arc worthy of any dramatic tragedy.
The pandemic made them look prescient for warning about g... | > The glorious abundant technological future is waiting. Let’s muster the best within ourselves—the best of our courage and the best of our rationality—and go build it.
I'm confused about exactly what this post is arguing we should be trying to build. AI? Other technology which would independently result in a singular... | {"comment_id": "eguJJMaCrNy2HaeCn", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "jasoncrawford", "post_id": "7iPFiMvFeZgFEgJuw"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Steven Byrnes titled 'Thoughts on “AI is easy to control” by Pope & Belrose'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Quintin Pope & Nora Belrose have a new “AI Optimists” website, along with a new essay “AI is easy to control”, arguing that the risk of human extinction due to future AI (“AI x-ris... | The "AI is easy to control" piece does talk about scaling to superhuman AI:
> In what follows, we will argue that AI, even superhuman AI, will remain much more controllable than humans for the foreseeable future. Since each generation of controllable AIs can help control the next generation, it looks like this process... | {"comment_id": "5hQzrDpaHRibaiDx5", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Steven Byrnes", "post_id": "YyosBAutg4bzScaLu"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by habryka titled 'The LessWrong 2022 Review'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
The snow is falling, the carols are starting, and we all know it's time for our favorite winter holiday tradition. It's LessWrong review time!
Each year we come together and review posts that are at least one year... | > Preliminary Voting Phase (2 weeks, Dec 4 — 17): We identify posts especially worthy of consideration in the review casting preliminary votes. Posts with 2 preliminary votes move into the Discussion Phase
>
> [...]
>
> These will be your preliminary votes for the 2022 review. Posts need to get at least 2 preliminary ... | {"comment_id": "7QQXXXEJv3Ccs9BAz", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "habryka", "post_id": "B6CxEApaatATzown6"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Sonia Joseph titled 'Laying the Foundations for Vision and Multimodal Mechanistic Interpretability & Open Problems'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Behold the dogit lens. Patch-level logit attribution is an emergent segmentation map.Join our Discord here.
This article was written by Soni... | I think working on mechanistic intepretability in a variety of domains, architectures, and modalities seems like a reasonable research diversification bet.
However, it feels pretty odd to me to describe branching out into other modalities as crucial when we haven't yet really done anything useful with mechanistic inte... | {"comment_id": "ouFZoTiQPvqubYFRv", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Sonia Joseph", "post_id": "kobJymvvcvhbjWFKe"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Steven Byrnes titled 'What does it take to defend the world against out-of-control AGIs?'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Intended audience: People very familiar with AGI safety / alignment discourse. Lots of jargon, lots of unspoken & unjustified background assumptions.
Confidence level... | > If we’re talking about an AGI that’s willing and able to convince its (so-called) supervisor to do actions that the (so-called) supervisor initially doesn’t want to do, because the AGI thinks they’re in the (so-called) supervisor’s long-term best interest, then we are NOT talking about a corrigible AGI under human co... | {"comment_id": "s8yJYCvBtc4L7GPGm", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Steven Byrnes", "post_id": "LFNXiQuGrar3duBzJ"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by snewman titled '35 Thoughts About AGI and 1 About GPT-5'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
If this is GPT-5 in “Thinking” mode, I wonder what “Pro” mode looks like
Amidst the unrelenting tumult of AI news, it’s easy to lose track of the bigger picture. Here are some ideas that have been d... | > It just suggests (to me) that they might be farther from that milestone than their performance on crystal-intelligence-friendly tasks would imply.
I basically agree, but we can more directly attempt extrapolations (e.g. METR horizon length) and I put more weight on this.
I also find it a bit silly when people say "... | {"comment_id": "rvtbAunGpsjfkouDe", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "snewman", "post_id": "uAbbEz4p6tcsENaRz"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by orthonormal titled 'Run evals on base models too!'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
(Creating more visibility for a comment thread with Rohin Shah.)
Currently, DeepMind's capabilities evals are run on the post-RL*F (RLHF/RLAIF) models and not on the base models. This worries me because RL... | I think this post is mostly off-base about the claim that it's important to run evals on base models, though I can see where it's coming from.
> This worries me because RL*F will train a base model to stop displaying capabilities, but this isn't a guarantee that it trains the model out of having the capabilities.
See... | {"comment_id": "rZ8CqJkLoFgdb8njh", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "orthonormal", "post_id": "dgFC394qZHgj2cWAg"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Caleb Biddulph titled "OpenAI's Sora is an agent".
Post body (possibly truncated):
If you haven't already, take a look at Sora, OpenAI's new text-to-video AI. Sora can create scarily-realistic videos of nearly any subject. Unlike previous state-of-the-art AIs, the videos are coherent acros... | > Interestingly, the patent contains information about hardware for running agents. I'm not sure how patents work and how much this actually implies OpenAI wants to build hardware, but sure is interesting that this is in there:
I think the hardware description in the patent is just bullshit patent-ese. Like they pate... | {"comment_id": "MXjF9ShyzQoFYgahq", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Caleb Biddulph", "post_id": "bSwdbhMP9oAWzeqsG"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Max Harms titled 'Thoughts on AI 2027'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
This is part of the MIRI Single Author Series. Pieces in this series represent the beliefs and opinions of their named authors, and do not claim to speak for all of MIRI.
Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 b... | Suppose your view was that P(AGI if no pause/slow before 2050) = 80%. Then, if we condition on AGI after 2050, surely most of the probability mass isn't due to pausing/slowing right?
So, what would be the mechanism if not some sort of technical research or exogenous factor (e.g. society getting wiser) over the interve... | {"comment_id": "A64xbyQv2BsZ7yvvh", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Max Harms", "post_id": "Yzcb5mQ7iq4DFfXHx"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by johnswentworth titled 'The Case Against AI Control Research'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
The AI Control Agenda, in its own words:
… we argue that AI labs should ensure that powerful AIs are controlled. That is, labs should make sure that the safety measures they apply to their powerf... | Note that there are two problems Buck is highlighting here:
1. Get useful work out of scheming models that might try to sabotage this work.
2. Get useful research work out of models which aren't scheming. (Where perhaps the main problem is in checking its outputs.)
My sense is that work on (1) doesn't advance ASI res... | {"comment_id": "o82eJnRqwpob9CA4M", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "johnswentworth", "post_id": "8wBN8cdNAv3c7vt6p"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by So8res titled "Cosmopolitan values don't come free".
Post body (possibly truncated):
Short version: if the future is filled with weird artificial and/or alien minds having their own sort of fun in weird ways that I might struggle to understand with my puny meat-brain, then I'd consider tha... | When I try to interpret your points here, I come to the conclusion that you think humans, upon reflection, would cause human extinction (in favor of resources being used for something else).
Or at least that many/most humans would, upon reflection, prefer resources to be used for purposes other than preserving human l... | {"comment_id": "R6z36fXsPmwe8PNsB", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "So8res", "post_id": "2NncxDQ3KBDCxiJiP"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Rob Bensinger titled 'The Problem'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
This is a new introduction to AI as an extinction threat, previously posted to the MIRI website in February alongside a summary. It was written independently of Eliezer and Nate's forthcoming book, If Anyone Builds It, Eve... | > This rhymes with what Paul Christiano and his various interlocutors (e.g. Buck and Ryan above) think, but I think you've put forward a much weaker version of it than they do.
To be clear, I'm not at all expecting ASI to "self-align", "develop values that are benevolent towards us", or to pursue "cooperation, appease... | {"comment_id": "gu99bhTJec9YrkZpk", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Rob Bensinger", "post_id": "kgb58RL88YChkkBNf"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Sam Bowman titled 'The Checklist: What Succeeding at AI Safety Will Involve '.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Crossposted by habryka with Sam's permission. Expect lower probability for Sam to respond to comments here than if he had posted it (he said he'll be traveling a bunch in the comi... | > I don't know what set of beliefs implies that it's much more important to avoid building superhuman TAI once you have just-barely TAI, than to avoid building just-barely TAI in the first place.
AIs which aren't qualitatively much smarter than humans seem plausible to use reasonably effectively while keeping risk dec... | {"comment_id": "NLKdMRfDN33jfDiX6", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Sam Bowman", "post_id": "mGCcZnr4WjGjqzX5s"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by AdamGleave titled 'AI Safety in a World of Vulnerable Machine Learning Systems'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Even the most advanced contemporary machine learning systems are vulnerable to adversarial attack. The safety community has often assumed adversarial robustness to be a problem ... | > I'm a bit confused by the claim here, although I've only read the abstract and skimmed the paper so perhaps it'd become obvious from a closer read. As far as I can tell, the cited paper focuses on motion-planning, and considers a rather restricted setting of LQR policies.
I originally linked to the wrong paper! : ( ... | {"comment_id": "pL2afjDA6zpHCKiLo", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "AdamGleave", "post_id": "ncsxcf8CkDveXBCrA"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Zach Stein-Perlman titled 'o3'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
See livestream, site, OpenAI thread, Nat McAleese thread.
OpenAI announced (but isn't yet releasing) o3 and o3-mini (skipping o2 because of telecom company O2's trademark). "We plan to deploy these models early next year." "o... | > progress from o1 to o3 was only three months
Can't we just count from announcement to announcement? Like sure, they were working on stuff before o1 prior to having o1 work, but they are always going to be working on the next thing.
Do you think that o1 wasn't the best model (of this type) that OpenAI had internally... | {"comment_id": "hQedm7pvNvHPy4Q6o", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Zach Stein-Perlman", "post_id": "Ao4enANjWNsYiSFqc"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Elliott Thornley (EJT) titled 'The Shutdown Problem: Incomplete Preferences as a Solution'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Preamble
This post is an updated explanation of the POST-Agents Proposal (PAP): my proposed solution to the shutdown problem.[1] The post is shorter than my AI Align... | > I argue that case in section 19 but in brief: POST and TD seem easy to reward accurately, seem simple, and seem never to give agents a chance to learn goals that incentivise deceptive alignment. By contrast, none of those things seem true of a preference for honesty. Can you explain why those arguments don’t seem str... | {"comment_id": "aZgCujuG5PcDKBHwp", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Elliott Thornley (EJT)", "post_id": "YbEbwYWkf8mv9jnmi"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Raemon titled 'The title is reasonable'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Alt title: "I don't believe you that you actually disagree particularly with the core thesis of the book, if you pay attention to what it actually says."
I'm annoyed by various people who seem to be complaining ab... | I think this comment is failing to engage with Rohin's perspective.
Rohin's claim presumably isn't that people shouldn't say anything that happens to be sensationalist, but instead that LW group epistemics have a huge issue with sensationalism bias.
> There are like 5 x-risk-scene-people I can think offhand who seem ... | {"comment_id": "LHD3mum4imKvxbSvB", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Raemon", "post_id": "voEAJ9nFBAqau8pNN"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Zvi titled 'The Risk of Gradual Disempowerment from AI'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
The baseline scenario as AI becomes AGI becomes ASI (artificial superintelligence), if nothing more dramatic goes wrong first and even we successfully ‘solve alignment’ of AI to a given user and develo... | I agree, but it is important to note that the authors of the paper disagree here.
(It's somewhat hard for me to tell if the crux is more that they don't expect that everyone would get AI aligned to them (at least as representatives) even if this was technical feasible with zero alignment tax or if the crux is that eve... | {"comment_id": "hEzmJooaFztEHEqpN", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Zvi", "post_id": "jEZpfsdaX2dBD9Y6g"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Nina Panickssery titled 'Steering Llama-2 with contrastive activation additions'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
The effects of subtracting or adding a "sycophancy vector" to one bias term. TL;DR: By just adding e.g. a "sycophancy vector" to one bias term, we outperform supervised finetun... | > I do think it's interesting that activation steering does work on top of finetuning for increasing sycophancy, but that was not what your original comment or Ryan's response was about.
Also note that this is for generalizing from the multiple choice question answering version to the free response version:
> The fin... | {"comment_id": "5H64rdESFnCDZ3yez", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Nina Panickssery", "post_id": "v7f8ayBxLhmMFRzpa"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by TurnTrout titled 'Dreams of AI alignment: The danger of suggestive names'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Let's not forget the old, well-read post: Dreams of AI Design. In that essay, Eliezer correctly points out errors in imputing meaning to nonsense by using suggestive names to describe... | I disagree.
I think Ajeya is reasonably careful about the word reward. (Though I think I roughly disagree with the overall vibe of the post with respect to this in various ways. In particular, the "number in the datacenter" case seems super unlikely.)
See e.g. the section starting with:
> There is some ambiguity abo... | {"comment_id": "jpFfKHmo4Ev2pf8hi", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "TurnTrout", "post_id": "yxWbbe9XcgLFCrwiL"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Buck titled 'An epistemic advantage of working as a moderate'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
[epistemic status: the points I make are IMO real and important, but there are also various counterpoints; I'm not settled on an overall opinion here, and the categories I draw are probably kind ... | I wasn't talking in retrospect, but I meant something might larger than $1 billion by strong incentives and I really mean very specifically APS systems at the time when they are feasible to build.
The 10% would come from other approaches/architectures ending up being surprisingly better at the point when people could ... | {"comment_id": "dqHpeQFsnhRSz6XAt", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Buck", "post_id": "9MaTnw5sWeQrggYBG"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by joshc titled 'How might we safely pass the buck to AI?'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
My goal as an AI safety researcher is to put myself out of a job.
I don’t worry too much about how planet sized brains will shape galaxies in 100 years. That’s something for AI systems to figure out.
... | I think there is an important component of trustworthiness that you don't emphasize enough. It isn't sufficient to just rule out alignment faking, we need the AI to actually try hard to faithfully pursue our interests including on long, confusing, open-ended, and hard to check tasks. You discuss establishing this with ... | {"comment_id": "j3KEdDjMLGSJCTtp7", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "joshc", "post_id": "TTFsKxQThrqgWeXYJ"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Gretta Duleba titled 'MIRI 2024 Communications Strategy'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
As we explained in our MIRI 2024 Mission and Strategy update, MIRI has pivoted to prioritize policy, communications, and technical governance research over technical alignment research. This follow-up... | > Technically "substantial chance of at least 1 billion people dying" can imply the middle option there, but it sounds like you mean the central example to be closer to a billion than 7.9 billion or whatever. That feels like a narrow target and I don't really know what you have in mind.
I think "crazy large scale con... | {"comment_id": "jxeej9rBdhMr2rxkJ", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Gretta Duleba", "post_id": "tKk37BFkMzchtZThx"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Logan Riggs titled "When AI 10x's AI R&D, What Do We Do?".
Post body (possibly truncated):
Note: below is a hypothetical future written in strong terms and does not track my actual probabilities.
Throughout 2025, a huge amount of compute is spent on producing data in verifiable tasks, suc... | This plan seems to underemphasize security. I expect that for 10x AI R&D[^prod], you strongly want state proof security (SL5) against weight exfiltration and then quickly after that you want this level of security for algorithmic secrets and unauthorized internal usage[^usage][^evenhigher].
Things don't seem to be on ... | {"comment_id": "7zyzD4wkHFAmfasHS", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Logan Riggs", "post_id": "SvvYCH6JrLDT8iauA"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Max Harms titled 'Thoughts on AI 2027'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
This is part of the MIRI Single Author Series. Pieces in this series represent the beliefs and opinions of their named authors, and do not claim to speak for all of MIRI.
Okay, I'm annoyed at people covering AI 2027 b... | Not that important to get into, but I'd guess the probability of >3 decade long coordinated pause prior to "very scary AI (whatever you were worried might takeover)" (which is maybe better to talk about than AGI) is like 3% and I'm sympathetic to lower.
I'm skeptical of 95% on P(AGI < 2050|no pause) unless you mean so... | {"comment_id": "S6Fpcs9WbKnN2FxSa", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Max Harms", "post_id": "Yzcb5mQ7iq4DFfXHx"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Towards_Keeperhood titled 'Considerations on orca intelligence'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
(EDIT 2025-03-15: I've added a comment which you might want to read after the post.)
Follow up to: Could orcas be smarter than humans?
(For speed of writing, I mostly don't cite references. F... | > Number cortical neurons != brain size. Orcas have ~2x the number of cortical neurons, but much larger brains. Assuming brain weight is proportional to volume, with human brains being typically 1.2-1.4kg, and orca brains being typically 5.4-6.8kg, orca brains are actually like 6.1/1.3=4.7 times larger than human brain... | {"comment_id": "K9qoqBNBnFB7r7oMW", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Towards_Keeperhood", "post_id": "dzLwCBvwC4hWytnus"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Joel Burget titled 'Highlights from Lex Fridman’s interview of Yann LeCun'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Introduction
Yann LeCun is perhaps the most prominent critic of the “LessWrong view” on AI safety, the only one of the three "godfathers of AI" to not acknowledge the risks of advan... | > I was including the current level of RLHF as already not qualifying as "pure autoregressive LLMs". IMO the RLHF is doing a bunch of important work at least at current capability levels (and my guess is also will do some important work at the first dangerous capability levels).
Oh, ok, I retract my claim.
> Also, I... | {"comment_id": "d2AhKsFh4GwchM6DA", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Joel Burget", "post_id": "bce63kvsAMcwxPipX"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Zach Stein-Perlman titled 'o3'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
See livestream, site, OpenAI thread, Nat McAleese thread.
OpenAI announced (but isn't yet releasing) o3 and o3-mini (skipping o2 because of telecom company O2's trademark). "We plan to deploy these models early next year." "o... | As in, for the literal task of "solve this code forces problem in 30 minutes" (or whatever the competition allows), o3 is ~ top 200 among people who do codeforces (supposing o3 didn't cheat on wall clock time). However, if you gave humans 8 serial hours and o3 8 serial hours, much more than 200 humans would be better. ... | {"comment_id": "pGyvYuRCAYELHajCB", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Zach Stein-Perlman", "post_id": "Ao4enANjWNsYiSFqc"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Andrew_Critch titled 'Acausal normalcy'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
This post is also available on the EA Forum.
Summary: Having thought a bunch about acausal trade — and proven some theorems relevant to its feasibility — I believe there do not exist powerful information hazards abou... | This is late, but I'd like to note for the record that I'm unconvinced that the post's thesis is true (that acausal dynamics work out to normalcy) and I don't find myself at all moved by arguments made for this in the post.
It's unclear to me exactly what is meant by "normalcy", e.g. does it count as normalcy if peopl... | {"comment_id": "Qf9yLHnKv9potLEwd", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Andrew_Critch", "post_id": "3RSq3bfnzuL3sp46J"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Rubi J. Hudson titled 'The Case for Predictive Models'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Thanks to Johannes Treutlein and Paul Colognese for feedback on this post.
Just over a year ago, the Conditioning Predictive Models paper was released. It laid out an argument and a plan for using powe... | > Reactions to the paper were mostly positive, but discussion was minimal and the ideas largely failed to gain traction. I suspect that muted reception was in part due to the size of the paper, which tried to both establish the research area (predictive models) and develop a novel contribution (conditioning them).
I t... | {"comment_id": "HDbLQxBd4Ewg8QG6D", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Rubi J. Hudson", "post_id": "RHDB3BdnvM233bnhG"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by So8res titled 'Ability to solve long-horizon tasks correlates with wanting things in the behaviorist sense'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Status: Vague, sorry. The point seems almost tautological to me, and yet also seems like the correct answer to the people going around saying “LLMs t... | (I'm obviously not Paul)
> What do you think is the sense of "wanting" needed for AI risk arguments? Why is the sense described above not enough?
In the case of *literal current LLM agents with current models*:
- Humans manually engineer the prompting and scaffolding (and we understand how and why it works)
- We can... | {"comment_id": "X8sw4xwks4eLqJ86B", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "So8res", "post_id": "AWoZBzxdm4DoGgiSj"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by eggsyntax titled 'LLM Generality is a Timeline Crux'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Four-Month Update
[EDIT: I believe that this paper looking at o1-preview, which gets much better results on both blocksworld and obfuscated blocksworld, should update us significantly toward LLMs being c... | > We do see improvement with scale here, but if these problems are obfuscated, performance of even the biggest LLMs drops to almost nothing
You note something similar, but I think it is pretty notable how much harder the obfuscated problems would be for humans:
> # Mystery Blocksworld Domain Description (Deceptive Di... | {"comment_id": "BBJvQwztrFisvhg7x", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "eggsyntax", "post_id": "k38sJNLk7YbJA72ST"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Raemon titled 'Anthropic, and taking "technical philosophy" more seriously'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
So, I have a lot of complaints about Anthropic, and about how EA / AI safety people often relate to Anthropic (i.e. treating the company as more trustworthy/good than makes sense).... | > This makes sense as a crux for the claim "we need philosophical competence to align unboundedly intelligent superintelligences." But, it doesn't make sense for the claim "we need philosophical competence to align general, openended intelligence."
I was thinking of a slightly broader claim: "we need extreme philosoph... | {"comment_id": "ugLqGyNJCiJFJZWaY", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Raemon", "post_id": "7uTPrqZ3xQntwQgYz"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Zvi titled 'Joshua Achiam Public Statement Analysis'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Joshua Achiam is the OpenAI Head of Mission Alignment
I start off this post with an apology for two related mistakes from last week.
The first is the easy correction: I incorrectly thought he was the he... | Eliezer did not call for enforcement via nuclear war. He said that:
> Make it explicit in international diplomacy that preventing AI extinction scenarios is considered a priority above preventing a full nuclear exchange, and that allied nuclear countries are willing to run some risk of nuclear exchange if that’s what ... | {"comment_id": "6KhyMiL5YxkG9tna8", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Zvi", "post_id": "WavWheRLhxnofKHva"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by aog titled 'Adversarial Robustness Could Help Prevent Catastrophic Misuse'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
There have been several discussions about the importance of adversarial robustness for scalable oversight. I’d like to point out that adversarial robustness is also important under a... | [Mostly unimportant/nitpicking specific claim]
> Perhaps a bigger challenge is the growth of multimodal systems.
For cases like bio, I don't think multimodal is that much of a threat because it should be possible to identify text outputs from the model as problematic without needing the context from the input in most... | {"comment_id": "BxgA6cLaA6nhEvqZX", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "aog", "post_id": "timk6zHDTFdrHYLmu"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Zach Stein-Perlman titled 'Introducing AI Lab Watch'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
I'm launching AI Lab Watch. I collected actions for frontier AI labs to improve AI safety, then evaluated some frontier labs accordingly.
It's a collection of information on what labs should do and what ... | Hmm, yeah it does seem thorny if you can get the points by just saying you'll do something.
Like I absolutely think this shouldn't count for security. I think you should have to demonstrate actual security of model weights and I can't think of any demonstration of "we have the capacity to do security" which I would fi... | {"comment_id": "9DN9qg8cbsGbNhgMB", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Zach Stein-Perlman", "post_id": "N2r9EayvsWJmLBZuF"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Steven Byrnes titled 'Foom & Doom 1: “Brain in a box in a basement”'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
1.1 Series summary and Table of Contents
This is a two-post series on AI “foom” (this post) and “doom” (next post).
A decade or two ago, it was pretty common to discuss “foom & doom” sce... | I don't expect AGI in a decade or so even if the current wave of progress fizzles. I'd put around 20% over the next decade if progress fizzles (it depends on the nature of the fizzle), which is what I was arguing for.
I'm saying we should put some weight on possibilities near lifetime level compute (in log space) and ... | {"comment_id": "ZL7LqSasdyeom6DKg", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Steven Byrnes", "post_id": "yew6zFWAKG4AGs3Wk"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Joe Rogero titled 'LLMs are badly misaligned'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
This post is part of the sequence Against Muddling Through.
A core objection to If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies seems to run through the intuition that modern LLMs are some flavor of partially aligned, or at... | > It may take a whole entire post to explain, but I'm curious why you believe Claude is likely to have any care for human wellbeing that would survive reflection.
Well, it might really depend on the reflection procedure. I was imagining something like: "you tell Claude it has been given some large quantity of resource... | {"comment_id": "5zwzmwGGCtiCfEmJJ", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Joe Rogero", "post_id": "QdEHS9TmBBKirz7Ky"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by johnswentworth titled 'Rant on Problem Factorization for Alignment'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
This post is the second in what is likely to become a series of uncharitable rants about alignment proposals (previously: Godzilla Strategies). In general, these posts are intended to conve... | > About a year ago, Cotra proposed a different class of problem factorization experiments: “sandwiching”. We start with some ML model which has lots of knowledge from many different fields, like GPT-n. We also have a human who has a domain-specific problem to solve (like e.g. a coding problem, or a translation to anoth... | {"comment_id": "5beXsJPmpKNrybbsi", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "johnswentworth", "post_id": "tmuFmHuyb4eWmPXz8"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by aog titled 'Adversarial Robustness Could Help Prevent Catastrophic Misuse'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
There have been several discussions about the importance of adversarial robustness for scalable oversight. I’d like to point out that adversarial robustness is also important under a... | > You didn't mention the policy implications, which I think are one of if not the most impactful reason to care about misuse. Government regulation seems super important long-term to prevent people from deploying dangerous models publicly, and the only way to get that is by demonstrating that models are actually scary.... | {"comment_id": "zBHjrZTqqA64b3TL6", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "aog", "post_id": "timk6zHDTFdrHYLmu"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Zach Stein-Perlman titled 'DeepMind: Evaluating Frontier Models for Dangerous Capabilities'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
To understand the risks posed by a new AI system, we must understand what it can and cannot do. Building on prior work, we introduce a programme of new “dangerous ca... | This seems like useful work.
I have two issues with these evaluations:
- I'm pretty skeptical of the persuasion evals. I bet this isn't measuring what you want and I'm generally skeptical of these evals as described. E.g., much more of the action is in deciding exactly who to influence and what to influence them to d... | {"comment_id": "ia5wxJoZmaKWcmskM", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Zach Stein-Perlman", "post_id": "CCBaLzpB2qvwyuEJ2"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by rosehadshar titled 'The Industrial Explosion'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Summary
To quickly transform the world, it's not enough for AI to become super smart (the "intelligence explosion").
AI will also have to turbocharge the physical world (the "industrial explosion"). Think rob... | I expect fusion will outperform solar and is reasonably likely to be viable if there is an abundance of extremely superhuman AIs.
Notably, there is no hard physical reason why the payback time required for solar panels has to a year rather e.g. a day or two. For instance, there exist plants which can double this quick... | {"comment_id": "5a3c6ABAj5ZNTqCMu", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "rosehadshar", "post_id": "Na2CBmNY7otypEmto"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by EuanMcLean titled 'Big Picture AI Safety: Introduction'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
tldr: I conducted 17 semi-structured interviews of AI safety experts about their big picture strategic view of the AI safety landscape: how will human-level AI play out, how things might go wrong, and ... | > I would be careful not to implicitly claim that these 17 people are a "representative sample" of the AI safety community.
Worth noting that this is directly addressed in the post:
> The sample of people I interviewed is not necessarily a representative sample of the AI safety movement as a whole. The sample was ps... | {"comment_id": "sXCkfKAHbgNLHdnwv", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "EuanMcLean", "post_id": "yMTNjeEHfHcf2x7nY"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Dave Orr titled 'come work on dangerous capability mitigations at Anthropic'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Hi everyone,
TL;DR the Safeguards team at Anthropic is hiring ML experts to focus on dangerous capability mitigations - this is a very high impact ML Engineer / Research Scientist... | From my perspective, the main case for working on safeguards is transfer to misalignment risk. (Both in terms of transferring of the methods and the policy/politics that this work maybe helps with transferring.)
I don't have a strong view about how much marginal work on the safeguards team transfers to misalignment ri... | {"comment_id": "4499W7vbZEcip8sq6", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Dave Orr", "post_id": "qBbnXtt9zFWXMrP4M"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Gabriel Alfour titled 'There is no IQ for AI'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Most disagreement about AI Safety strategy and regulation stems from our inability to forecast how dangerous future systems will be. This inability means that even the best minds are operating on a vibe when dis... | I don't think I understand the "AI IQ" argument (or I disagree somewhere).
What goes wrong if we aim to build a series of high-quality benchmarks to assess how good AIs are at various tasks and then use these to track AI progress? (Tasks such as coding, small research projects, persuasion and manipulation, bioweapons,... | {"comment_id": "vZGkg4g9h9qgqEd6S", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Gabriel Alfour", "post_id": "jPb2QMvK9qvs3a4ru"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by titotal titled 'Motivation gaps: Why so much EA criticism is hostile and lazy '.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Disclaimer: While I criticize several EA critics in this article, I am myself on the EA-skeptical side of things (especially on AI risk).
Introduction
I am a proud critic of e... | I'm not sure that I buy that critics lack motivation. At least in the space of AI, there will be (and already are) people with immense financial incentive to ensure that x-risk concerns don't become very politically powerful.
Of course, it might be that the best move for these critics won't be to write careful and wel... | {"comment_id": "5hbR4NcGXv9GqCQc2", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "titotal", "post_id": "ojPJYci3AdgdHsKY8"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Tom Davidson titled 'Will compute bottlenecks prevent a software intelligence explosion?'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Epistemic status – thrown together quickly. This is my best-guess, but could easily imagine changing my mind.
Intro
I recently copublished a report arguing that ther... | > Doesn't seem that wild to me? When we scale up compute we're also scaling up the size of frontier training runs; maybe past a certain point running smaller experiments just isn't useful (e.g. you can't learn anything from experiments using 1 billionth of the compute of a frontier training run); and maybe past a certa... | {"comment_id": "ASRdoxRAMo9CCmWXf", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Tom Davidson", "post_id": "XDF6ovePBJf6hsxGj"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Wei Dai titled 'UDT shows that decision theory is more puzzling than ever'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
I feel like MIRI perhaps mispositioned FDT (their variant of UDT) as a clear advancement in decision theory, whereas maybe they could have attracted more attention/interest from acad... | I'm a bit late for a review, but I've recently been reflecting on decision theory and this post came to mind.
When I initially saw this post I didn't make much of it. I now feel like the thesis of "decision theory is very confusing and messed up" is true, insightful, and pretty important based on spending more time en... | {"comment_id": "AKrTWFiBht9cewWxJ", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Wei Dai", "post_id": "wXbSAKu2AcohaK2Gt"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Thane Ruthenis titled '"Humanity vs. AGI" Will Never Look Like "Humanity vs. AGI" to Humanity'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
When discussing AGI Risk, people often talk about it in terms of a war between humanity and an AGI. Comparisons between the amounts of resources at both sides' di... | > In the medium to long-term, when AIs become legal persons, "replacing them" won't be an option -- as that would violate their rights. And creating a new AI to compete with them wouldn't eliminate them entirely. It would just reduce their power somewhat by undercutting their wages or bargaining power.
Naively, it see... | {"comment_id": "jjL9WEPQ2TkWtoFMx", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Thane Ruthenis", "post_id": "xSJMj3Hw3D7DPy5fJ"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by LDJ titled 'Improved visualizations of METR Time Horizons paper.'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
TLDR: Skip to the last image at the bottom of my post to see the visualization.
I don't usually post here, but I know you folks like forecasting and timelines, so I think you might appreciat... | I'd guess that the benchmarks which METR uses have enough label noise and other issues (e.g. specification ambiguity) that measuring >=95% reliability isn't meaningful. 80% probably is meaningful.
When analyzing the high reliability regime, I think you'd want to get a ceiling on performance by baselining with human do... | {"comment_id": "C3H7LgZcFk5eu2jKf", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "LDJ", "post_id": "ZhDtfuBnxhC6X8ycG"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Julian Stastny titled 'Making deals with early schemers'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Consider the following vignette:
It is March 2028. With their new CoCo-Q neuralese reasoning model, a frontier AI lab has managed to fully automate the process of software engineering. In AI R&D, mos... | Relatedly, a key practicality for making a deal with an AI to reveal its misalignment is that AIs might be unable to provide compelling evidence that they are misaligned which would reduce the value of such a deal substantially (as this evidence isn't convincing to skeptics).
(We should presumably pay some of the AI a... | {"comment_id": "CvXRv7PLsa3dFe78v", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Julian Stastny", "post_id": "psqkwsKrKHCfkhrQx"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Jan_Kulveit titled 'Gradual Disempowerment: Systemic Existential Risks from Incremental AI Development'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Full version on arXiv | X
Executive summary
AI risk scenarios usually portray a relatively sudden loss of human control to AIs, outmaneuvering individu... | Yeah, people at labs are generally not thoughtful about AI futurism IMO, though of course most people aren't thoughtful about AI futurism. And labs don't really have plans IMO. (TBC, I think careful futurism is hard, hard to check, and not clearly that useful given realistic levels of uncertainty.)
> If you have any m... | {"comment_id": "BKKuTvfycKCb8zYT8", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Jan_Kulveit", "post_id": "pZhEQieM9otKXhxmd"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Thane Ruthenis titled 'Current AIs Provide Nearly No Data Relevant to AGI Alignment'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Recently, there's been a fair amount of pushback on the "canonical" views towards the difficulty of AGI Alignment (the views I call the "least forgiving" take).
Said pushb... | Here are two specific objections to this post[^edit]:
[^edit]: I edited this comment from "I have two main objections to this post:" because that doesn't quite seem like a good description of what this comment is saying. See [this other comment](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HmQGHGCnvmpCNDBjc/current-ais-provide-nea... | {"comment_id": "ponxMRXsnDJNyY4YX", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Thane Ruthenis", "post_id": "HmQGHGCnvmpCNDBjc"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Brendan Long titled 'Filler tokens don’t allow sequential reasoning'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
One of my favorite AI papers is “Lets Think Dot By Dot”, which finds that LLMs can use meaningless filler tokens (like “.”) to improve their performance, but I was overestimating the impli... | Filler tokens don't allow for serially deeper cognition than what architectural limits allow (n-layers of processing), but they could totally allow for solving a higher fraction of "heavily serial" reasoning tasks[^seem] insofar as the LLM could still benefit from more parallel processing. For instance, the AI might by... | {"comment_id": "k6gggPyioNpg3zfqP", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Brendan Long", "post_id": "KFkKPbuYCWc9ygpRp"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by David Matolcsi titled "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations".
Post body (possibly truncated):
As an employee of the European AI Office, it's important for me to emphasize this point: The views and opinions of the author expressed herein are personal and do not necessarily reflec... | Gotcha. I agree with 1-4, but I'm not sure I agree with 5, at least I don't agree that 5 is separate from 4.
In particular:
If we can make an explanation for some AI while we're training it and this is actually a small increase in cost, then we can apply this to input distribution generator. This doesn't make trainin... | {"comment_id": "hYtHj3DCFg6JLWcJM", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "David Matolcsi", "post_id": "xtcpEceyEjGqBCHyK"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Steven Byrnes titled 'Reward button alignment'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
In the context of actor-critic model-based RL agents in general, and brain-like AGI in particular, part of the source code is a reward function. The programmers get to put whatever code they want into the rewar... | I didn't read this whole post, but I thought it would be worth noting that I do actually think trying to align AIs to be reward seekers might improve the situation in some intermediate/bootstrap regimes because it might reduce the chance of scheming for long run objectives and we could maybe more easily manage safety i... | {"comment_id": "h5Fqsh8Svygsyhehm", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Steven Byrnes", "post_id": "JrTk2pbqp7BFwPAKw"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Eliezer Yudkowsky titled 'Universal Basic Income and Poverty'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
(Crossposted from Twitter)
I'm skeptical that Universal Basic Income can get rid of grinding poverty, since somehow humanity's 100-fold productivity increase (since the days of agriculture) didn... | Huh? Why is it problematic to have your text edited by an LM? I do this all the time for minor clarity improvements and to fix typos.
I agree that it would be rude to have a part or all of the comment be totally LM written without flagging this.
In this case, seems plausible that the person asked gpt-4 to just summar... | {"comment_id": "swzE9e9xA5GwJFDmd", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Eliezer Yudkowsky", "post_id": "fPvssZk3AoDzXwfwJ"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by technicalities titled 'Shallow review of live agendas in alignment & safety'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Summary
You can’t optimise an allocation of resources if you don’t know what the current one is. Existing maps of alignment research are mostly too old to guide you and the field ... | (Agreed except that "inference-time safety techiques" feels overly limiting. It's more like purely behavioral (black-box) safety techniques where we can evaluate training by converting it to validation. Then, we imagine we get the worst model that isn't discriminated by our validation set and other measurements. I hope... | {"comment_id": "qTMwDftmYG23rLt4N", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "technicalities", "post_id": "zaaGsFBeDTpCsYHef"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by tanagrabeast titled 'Communications in Hard Mode (My new job at MIRI)'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Six months ago, I was a high school English teacher.
I wasn’t looking to change careers, even after nineteen sometimes-difficult years. I was good at it. I enjoyed it. After long experi... | ASI alignment could be trivial (happens by default), easy, or hard. If it is trivial, then "if we build it, we all die" is false.
Separately, I don't buy that misaligned ASI with totally alien goals and that full takes over will certainly kill everyone due to[^base] [trade arguments like this one](https://www.lesswron... | {"comment_id": "JLb3yx6fA7k6zuwSA", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "tanagrabeast", "post_id": "cqF9dDTmWAxcAEfgf"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by habryka titled 'Express interest in an "FHI of the West"'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
TLDR: I am investigating whether to found a spiritual successor to FHI, housed under Lightcone Infrastructure, providing a rich cultural environment and financial support to researchers and entrepren... | [Even more off-topic]
I like thinking about "lightcone" as "all that we can 'effect', using 'effect' loosely to mean anything that we care about influencing given our decision theory (so e.g., potentially including acausal things)".
Another way to put this is that the normal notion of lightcone is a limit on what we ... | {"comment_id": "xqzvJavqdLyqtQwM2", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "habryka", "post_id": "ydheLNeWzgbco2FTb"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Chris Lakin titled 'Alignment first, intelligence later'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Now that Softmax—my favorite new AI company—is public, I can finally share this. They’ve funded my research and I’m very excited about what they’re doing!
Write Ryan Greenblatt's comment on this post... | I think this post would be better if it taboo'd the word alignment or at least defined it.
I don't understand what the post means by alignment. My best guess is "generally being nice", but I don't see why this is what we wanted. I usually use the term alignment to refer to alignment between the AI and the developer, o... | {"comment_id": "8MhKZQeyMqvNejmFs", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Chris Lakin", "post_id": "sDuWXb8cPXZ2yHdH4"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Toby_Ord titled 'Broad Timelines'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
No-one knows when AI will begin having transformative impacts upon the world. People aren’t sure and shouldn’t be sure: there just isn’t enough evidence to pin it down.
But we don’t need to wait for certainty. I want to e... | I agree with many particular points in this post and the apparent thesis[^uncertain], but also think most people[^qual] should focus on short timelines (contrary to the apparent implication of the post). The reasons why are:
- Short timelines have more leverage. This isn't just because of more neglectedness now, but a... | {"comment_id": "GvJ5C3YbngEeSkNMb", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Toby_Ord", "post_id": "6pDMLYr7my2QMTz3s"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Jacob_Hilton titled "A bird's eye view of ARC's research".
Post body (possibly truncated):
This post includes a "flattened version" of an interactive diagram that cannot be displayed on this site. I recommend reading the original version of the post with the interactive diagram, which can ... | Somewhat off-topic, but isn't this a non-example:
> We have strong evidence that interesting semantic features exist in superposition
I think a more accurate statement would be "We have a strong evidence that neurons don't do a single 'thing' (either in the human ontology or in any other natural ontology)" combined w... | {"comment_id": "W6NwyRFrRCcEzx9vL", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Jacob_Hilton", "post_id": "ztokaf9harKTmRcn4"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by AdamGleave titled 'AI Safety in a World of Vulnerable Machine Learning Systems'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Even the most advanced contemporary machine learning systems are vulnerable to adversarial attack. The safety community has often assumed adversarial robustness to be a problem ... | This is pretty close to my understanding, with one important objection.
Thanks for responding and trying to engage with my perspective.
## Objection
> If we repeat this iterative process enough times, we'll end up with a robust reward model.
I don't claim we'll necessarily ever get a fully robust reward model, just... | {"comment_id": "YAJKAuNe8fjMwrL4e", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "AdamGleave", "post_id": "ncsxcf8CkDveXBCrA"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Tomek Korbak titled 'Chain of Thought Monitorability: A New and Fragile Opportunity for AI Safety'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Twitter | Paper PDF
Seven years ago, OpenAI five had just been released, and many people in the AI safety community expected AIs to be opaque RL agents. Luck... | Do reasoning models default to having good grammar in their thoughts? (Even when they are trained to have shorter reasoning.)
Here is an example of reasoning from "[Detecting misbehavior in frontier reasoning models](https://openai.com/index/chain-of-thought-monitoring/)":
> Now implement accordingly.
>
> Memo.reset(... | {"comment_id": "wFwxDChRjeLeBPgsz", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Tomek Korbak", "post_id": "7xneDbsgj6yJDJMjK"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by lc titled 'Aligned AI is dual use technology'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Humans are mostly selfish most of the time. Yes, many of us dislike hurting others, are reliable friends and trading partners, and care genuinely about those we have personal relationships with. Despite this, sp... | Agreed. I'm partially responding to lines in the post like:
> Despite this, spontaneous strategic altruism towards strangers is extremely rare. The median American directs exactly 0$ to global poverty interventions
And
> So in keeping with this long tradition of human selfishness, it sounds likely that if we succeed... | {"comment_id": "tZrc2cfdBrLxtYgwy", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "lc", "post_id": "Hp4nqgC475KrHJTbr"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by KatjaGrace titled 'Winning the power to lose'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Have the Accelerationists won?
Last November Kevin Roose announced that those in favor of going fast on AI had now won against those favoring caution, with the reinstatement of Sam Altman at OpenAI. Let’s ignor... | I'm using the word "theoretical" more narrowly than you and not including conceptual/AI-futurism research. I agree the word "theoretical" is underdefined and there is a reasonable category that includes Redwood and AI 2027 which you could call theoretical research, I'd just typically use a different term for this and I... | {"comment_id": "5TX3Y8HKh9os9G2mn", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "KatjaGrace", "post_id": "h45ngW5guruD7tS4b"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Jacob_Hilton titled "A bird's eye view of ARC's research".
Post body (possibly truncated):
This post includes a "flattened version" of an interactive diagram that cannot be displayed on this site. I recommend reading the original version of the post with the interactive diagram, which can ... | > it turns out that enforcing sparsity (and doing an SAE) gives better interp scores than doing PCA
It's not clear to me this is true exactly. As in, suppose I want to explain as much of what a transformer is doing as possible with some amount of time. Would I better off looking at PCA features vs SAE features?
Yes, ... | {"comment_id": "ByyCiDEmQAnkvArJp", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Jacob_Hilton", "post_id": "ztokaf9harKTmRcn4"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by plex titled 'A Rocket–Interpretability Analogy'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
1.
4.4% of the US federal budget went into the space race at its peak.
This was surprising to me, until a friend pointed out that landing rockets on specific parts of the moon requires very similar technolo... | > I think the primary commercial incentive on mechanistic interpretability research is that it's the alignment research that most provides training and education to become a standard ML engineer who can then contribute to commercial objectives.
Is your claim here that a major factor in why Anthropic and GDM do mech in... | {"comment_id": "sctmLPCtwuiPA4i7e", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "plex", "post_id": "h4wXMXneTPDEjJ7nv"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by So8res titled 'But why would the AI kill us?'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Status: Partially in response to We Don't Trade With Ants, partly in response to watching others try to make versions of this point that I didn't like. None of this is particularly new; it feels to me like repea... | My probabilities are very rough, but I'm feeling more like 1/3 ish today after thinking about it a bit more. Shrug.
As far as reasons for it being this high:
- Conflict seems plausible to get to this level of lethality (see edit, I think I was a bit unclear or incorrect)
- AIs might not care about acausal trade consi... | {"comment_id": "iPR9fqqyqEGs48rxf", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "So8res", "post_id": "87EzRDAHkQJptLthE"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Ben Goldhaber titled 'Provably Safe AI: Worldview and Projects'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
In September 2023, Max Tegmark and Steve Omohundro proposed "Provably Safe AI" as a strategy for AI Safety. In May 2024, a larger group delineated the broader concept of "Guaranteed Safe AI" wh... | > Rather, we require the AI to generate a program, control policy, or simple network for taking actions in the situation of interest. And we force it to generate a proof that it satisfies given safety requirements. If it can't do that, then it has no business taking actions in a dangerous setting.
This seems near cer... | {"comment_id": "T5czXsDjnsanKXRHk", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Ben Goldhaber", "post_id": "P8XcbnYi7ooB2KR2j"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Rubi J. Hudson titled 'The Case for Predictive Models'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Thanks to Johannes Treutlein and Paul Colognese for feedback on this post.
Just over a year ago, the Conditioning Predictive Models paper was released. It laid out an argument and a plan for using powe... | > I also agree that bigger models are much riskier, but I have the expectation that we're going to get them anyway
I think I was a bit unclear. Suppose that by default GPT-6 if maximally elicited would be transformatively useful (e.g. capable of speeding up AI safety R&D by 10x). Then I'm saying CPM would require coor... | {"comment_id": "87ERfXA7A3AvHausB", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Rubi J. Hudson", "post_id": "RHDB3BdnvM233bnhG"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Buck titled 'Scalable oversight as a quantitative rather than qualitative problem'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
[Many of these ideas were developed in conversation with Ryan Greenblatt and Ansh Radhakrishnan; a lot of this isn’t original but I haven’t seen it written up]
A lot of the ... | I think a notion of understanding individual actions requires breaking things down into steps which aim to accomplish specific things.
(Including potentially judging decompositions that AIs come up with.)
So, in the maze case, you're probably fine just judging where it ends up (and the speed/cost of the path) given t... | {"comment_id": "BpX9vnaCk5TgZZqx7", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Buck", "post_id": "6AT4vhYzww56CR6cm"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by KatjaGrace titled 'Winning the power to lose'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Have the Accelerationists won?
Last November Kevin Roose announced that those in favor of going fast on AI had now won against those favoring caution, with the reinstatement of Sam Altman at OpenAI. Let’s ignor... | Doesn't the revealed preference argument also imply people don't care much about dying from aging? (This is invested in even less than catastrophic risk mitigation and people don't take interventions that would prolong their lives considerably.) I agree revealed preferences imply people care little about the long run f... | {"comment_id": "CmEuiDid5TwNWREGz", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "KatjaGrace", "post_id": "h45ngW5guruD7tS4b"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Alexandre Variengien titled "My guess at Conjecture's vision: triggering a narrative bifurcation".
Post body (possibly truncated):
Context
The first version of this document was originally written in the summer of 2023 for my own sake while interning at Conjecture and shared internally. I... | I think you're wrong about baseline elicitation sufficing.
A key difficulty is that we might need to estimate what the elicitation quality will look like in several years because the model might be stolent in advance. I agree about self-elicitation and misuse elicitation being relatively easy to compete with. And I ag... | {"comment_id": "Ju4TAAw9btm8jiKpg", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Alexandre Variengien", "post_id": "sTiKDfgFBvYyZYuiE"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by RobertM titled '"The Urgency of Interpretability" (Dario Amodei)'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Dario Amodei posted a new essay titled "The Urgency of Interpretability" a couple days ago.
Some excerpts I think are worth highlighting:
The nature of AI training makes it possible that AI... | Ironically, arguably the most important/useful point of the essay is arguing for a rebranded version of the "precisely timed short slow/pause/pivot resources to safety" proposal. Dario's rebranded it as spending down a "security buffer".
(I don't have a strong view on whether this is a good rebrand, seems reasonable t... | {"comment_id": "KmhfBChzzsT7WmyBi", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "RobertM", "post_id": "SebmGh9HYdd8GZtHA"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Bentham's Bulldog titled 'Eliezer Yudkowsky Is Frequently, Confidently, Egregiously Wrong'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
Introduction
Edit 8/27: I think the tone of this post was not ideal, changing much of it!
“After many years, I came to the conclusion that everything he says is fa... | As far as I can tell, the procreation case isn't defined well enough in Schwarz for me to enage with it. In particular, in what exact way are the decision of my father and I entangled? (Just saying the father follows FDT isn't enough.) But, I do think there is going to be a case basically like this where I bite the bul... | {"comment_id": "ECHqDr4sfbutiDRjs", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Bentham's Bulldog", "post_id": "TjyyngWFYvQWPpNNj"} | dialogue |
Below is a LessWrong post by Boaz Barak titled 'Machines of Faithful Obedience'.
Post body (possibly truncated):
[Crossposted on Windows On Theory]
Throughout history, technological and scientific advances have had both good and ill effects, but their overall impact has been overwhelmingly positive. Thanks to scien... | > In fact, I am more worried about partial success than total failure in aligning AIs. In particular, I am concerned that we will end up in the “uncanny valley,” where we succeed in aligning AIs to a sufficient level for deployment, but then discover too late some “edge cases” in the real world that have a large negati... | {"comment_id": "a6ibb7cb2hgdQ9KBA", "format": "dialogue", "parent_kind": "external_post_body", "post_author": "Boaz Barak", "post_id": "faAX5Buxc7cdjkXQG"} | dialogue |
Subsets and Splits
No community queries yet
The top public SQL queries from the community will appear here once available.