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# How Islamic terrorists reduced terrorism in the US
Yesterday I was using the [Global Terrorism Database](http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd/) to check some suprisingly low figures on what percentage of terrorist acts are committed by Muslims. (Short answer: Worldwide since 2000, about 80%, rather than 0.4 - 6% as given in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/duwC6TR56R4MrrfpN/how-islamic-terrorists-reduced-terrorism-in-the-us |
# Who are your favorite "hidden rationalists"?
Quick summary: "Hidden rationalists" are what I call authors who espouse rationalist principles, and probably think of themselves as rational people, but don't always write on "traditional" Less Wrong-ish topics and probably haven't heard of Less Wrong.
I've noticed that... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GFddqSQsZjMkbeeHu/who-are-your-favorite-hidden-rationalists |
# Research Priorities for Artificial Intelligence: An Open Letter
The Future of Life Institute has published their document [Research priorities for robust and beneficial artificial intelligence](http://futureoflife.org/static/data/documents/research_priorities.pdf) and written an [open letter](http://futureoflife.org... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GZ9tpsLRNL9R6h6oE/research-priorities-for-artificial-intelligence-an-open |
# How subjective is attractiveness?
Consider the two statements:
* There is a universal standard for beauty.
* Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
Most people would agree that there's some truth to each of these statements. At [Thing of Things](http://thingofthings.wordpress.com/) Ozy wrote:
> As for the beau... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X3jz5mriJeWi2uLdF/how-subjective-is-attractiveness |
# 'Dumb' AI observes and manipulates controllers
The argument that AIs provided with a reward channel will observe their controllers and learn to manipulate them is a valid one. Unfortunately, it's often framed in a way that feels counterintuitive or extreme, especially to AI designers. It typically starts with the st... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/X3j7HMeQshr8Sz9hc/dumb-ai-observes-and-manipulates-controllers |
# [meta] New LW moderator: NancyLebovitz
During the following months my time and attention will be heavily occupied by some personal stuff, so I will be unable to function as a LW moderator. The new LW moderator is... [NancyLebovitz](/user/NancyLebovitz/overview/)!
From today, please direct all your complaints and in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/N7bQBjRHZpgLsGgzi/meta-new-lw-moderator-nancylebovitz |
# I'm the new moderator
Viliam Bur [made the announcement](/lw/lje/meta_new_lw_moderator_nancylebovitz/) in Main, but not everyone checks main, so I'm repeating it here.
> During the following months my time and attention will be heavily occupied by some personal stuff, so I will be unable to function as a LW moderat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/E8e2dFH5MkJbr8MCf/i-m-the-new-moderator |
# Selfish preferences and self-modification
One question I've had recently is "Are agents acting on selfish preferences doomed to having conflicts with other versions of themselves?" A major motivation of TDT and UDT was the ability to just do the right thing without having to be tied up with precommitments made by yo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zgbZNwW7f3C89ZgGK/selfish-preferences-and-self-modification |
# Elon Musk donates $10M to the Future of Life Institute to keep AI beneficial
We are delighted to report that technology inventor Elon Musk, creator of Tesla and SpaceX, has decided to donate $10M to the Future of Life Institute to run a global research program aimed at keeping AI beneficial to humanity.
There is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FuCZdbQ3h6782bnY6/elon-musk-donates-usd10m-to-the-future-of-life-institute-to |
# Vingean Reflection: Reliable Reasoning for Self-Improving Agents
I'm pleased to announce a new paper from MIRI: _[Vingean Reflection: Reliable Reasoning for Self-Improving Agents](http://intelligence.org/files/VingeanReflection.pdf)_.
Abstract:
> Today, human-level machine intelligence is in the domain of futurism... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iWwaJ5wPGLZJWjPAL/vingean-reflection-reliable-reasoning-for-self-improving |
# An example and discussion of extension neglect
I recently used an automatic tracker to learn how I was spending my time online. I learned that my perceptions were systemically biased: I spend less time than I thought on purely non-productive sites, and far more time on sites that are quasi-productive.
For examp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/svjC22YAkcydMoS4Q/an-example-and-discussion-of-extension-neglect |
# Slides online from "The Future of AI: Opportunities and Challenges"
In the first weekend of this year, the Future of Life institute hosted a landmark conference in Puerto Rico: "[The Future of AI: Opportunities and Challenges](http://futureoflife.org/misc/ai_conference)". The conference was unusual in that it was no... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TJSRiqBJxbcwEo7AR/slides-online-from-the-future-of-ai-opportunities-and |
# ... And Everyone Loses Their Minds
Chris Nolan's Joker is a very clever guy, almost Monroesque in his ability to identify hypocrisy and inconsistency. [One of his most interesting scenes](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h-gf29nuYYA) in the film has him point out how people estimate horrible things differently depend... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/P6vFmjRkHwGAhJGGE/and-everyone-loses-their-minds |
# Respond to what they probably meant
Edit: I didn't realize this before writing the post, but what I'm referring to is [The Principle of Charity](/lw/jhb/dangers_of_steelmanning_principle_of_charity/ad18).
### Story
I was confused about Node Modules, so I did a bunch of research to figure out how they work. Explain... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ghs7JcDGgemv6jWt7/respond-to-what-they-probably-meant |
# [Link] An argument on colds
[Source](https://www.facebook.com/robert.wiblin/posts/666376266505?pnref=story).
> It's illegal to work around food when showing symptoms of contagious diseases. Why not the same for everyone else? Each person who gets a cold infects one other person on average. We could probably cut in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/WMa4kkaE7avXgdRqz/link-an-argument-on-colds |
# An Introduction to Control Theory
[Behavior: The Control of Perception](http://smile.amazon.com/Behavior-Perception-William-T-Powers/dp/0964712172/ref=nosim?tag=vglnk-c319-20) by William Powers applies control theory to psychology to develop a model of human intelligence that seems relevant to two of LW's primary in... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dcRY7XSnuARkHkA5D/an-introduction-to-control-theory |
# Behavior: The Control of Perception
This is the second of three posts dealing with control theory and [Behavior: The Control of Perception](http://smile.amazon.com/Behavior-Perception-William-T-Powers/dp/0964712172/ref=nosim?tag=vglnk-c319-20) by William Powers. The [previous pos... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nPs63hpijnQs37jme/behavior-the-control-of-perception |
# Purchasing research effectively open thread
Many of the biggest historical [success stories](http://blog.givewell.org/2012/03/01/philanthropys-success-stories/) in philanthropy have come in the form of funding for academic research. This suggests that the topic of how to purchase such research well should be of int... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sxuhaoY2wB2HkzhhK/purchasing-research-effectively-open-thread |
# Control Theory Commentary
This is the third and final post in a sequence on control theory. In the [first post](/lw/lk0/an_introduction_to_control_theory/) I introduced the subject of control theory and stepped through some basics. In the [second post](/lw/lk9/behavior_the_control_of_perception/) I outlined Powers's... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/cMKNFE8hWKNhnEXtM/control-theory-commentary |
# Bill Gates: problem of strong AI with conflicting goals "very worthy of study and time"
[Steven Levy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steven_Levy): Let me ask an unrelated question about the raging debate over whether [artificial intelligence poses a threat to society](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-30777834), o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pgKemusRscdbQt9jb/bill-gates-problem-of-strong-ai-with-conflicting-goals-very |
# Formalizing Two Problems of Realistic World Models
I'm pleased to announce a new paper from MIRI: [Formalizing Two Problems of Realistic World Models](https://intelligence.org/files/RealisticWorldModels.pdf).
Abstract:
> An intelligent agent embedded within the real world must reason about an environment which is ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uyMhKJCNCcfPtEFLj/formalizing-two-problems-of-realistic-world-models |
# The Role of Attractiveness in Mate Selection: Individual Variation
This post reports on a portion of my analysis of Fisman and Iyengar's [speed dating dataset](http://andrewgelman.com/2008/01/21/the_speeddating_1/) which bears on the question of how people select romantic partners.
**
Note:**_I made very substan... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4yTLXdrfCb7zecwQH/the-role-of-attractiveness-in-mate-selection-individual |
# New, Brief Popular-Level Introduction to AI Risks and Superintelligence
The [very](https://www.facebook.com/waitbutwhy) [popular](http://www.ozy.com/good-sht/wait-but-why-making-nerdiness-viral/3161) blog Wait But Why [has published the first part](http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p3QMGoKPdHtCWgPBD/new-brief-popular-level-introduction-to-ai-risks-and |
# A Philosopher Walks Into A Coffee Shop
*I have been really enjoying [literarystarbucks.tumblr.com](http://literarystarbucks.com), which publishes complicated jokes about what famous authors and fictional characters order at Starbucks. I like it so much I wish I knew more great literature, so I could get more of the ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BPKvZuLRyiJBjfNbg/a-philosopher-walks-into-a-coffee-shop |
# Immortality: A Practical Guide
Immortality: A Practical Guide
Introduction
This article is about how to increase one’s own chances of living forever or, failing that, living for a long time. To be clear, this guide defines death as the long-term loss of one’s consciousness and defines immortality as never-ending l... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/7nH7R9eqYWSPvF4Qm/immortality-a-practical-guide |
# Prediction Markets are Confounded - Implications for the feasibility of Futarchy
_(tl;dr: In this post, I show that prediction markets estimate non-causal probabilities, and can therefore not be used for decision making by rational agents following causal decision theory. I provide an example of a simple situation... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xnC68ZfTkPyzXQS8p/prediction-markets-are-confounded-implications-for-the |
# Donate to Keep Charity Science Running
Charity Science is looking for $35,000 to fund our 2015 operations. We fundraise for GiveWell-recommended charities, and over 2014 we moved over $150,000 to them that wouldn’t have been given otherwise: that’s $9 for every $1 we spent. We can’t do this work without your support... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/jfzt4M5ettiQezR73/donate-to-keep-charity-science-running |
# CFAR fundraiser far from filled; 4 days remaining
We're 4 days from the end of our matching [fundraiser](/lw/lfg/cfar_in_2014_continuing_to_climb_out_of_the/), and still only about [1/3rd](http://rationality.org/donate/) of the way to our target (and to the point where pledged funds would cease being matched).
If y... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/iofRhJBXvSw8LDdYv/cfar-fundraiser-far-from-filled-4-days-remaining |
# [link] Speed is the New Intelligence
From [Scott Adams Blog](http://blog.dilbert.com/post/109295555116/speed-is-the-new-intelligence)
The article really is about speeding up government, but the key point is speed as a component of smart:
> A smart friend told me recently that speed is the new intelligence, at lea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/QCJRaqZ3g5WJNAWFC/link-speed-is-the-new-intelligence |
# [LINK] The P + epsilon Attack (Precommitment in cryptoeconomics)
Vitalik Buterin has a new post about an [interesting theoretical attack against Bitcoin](https://blog.ethereum.org/2015/01/28/p-epsilon-attack/). The idea relies on the assumption that the attacker can credibly commit to something quite crazy. The craz... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/a8QMgWCwGML69n9me/link-the-p-epsilon-attack-precommitment-in-cryptoeconomics |
# The Value Learning Problem
I'm pleased to announce a new paper from MIRI about [The Value Learning Problem](http://intelligence.org/files/ValueLearningProblem.pdf).
Abstract:
> A superintelligent machine would not automatically act as intended: it will act as programmed, but the fit between human intentions and fo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EgooL2sp238vucwfx/the-value-learning-problem |
# Is there a rationalist skill tree yet?
A while back I came across a delightful [web developer skill tree](http://www.dungeonsanddevelopers.com/), and I was wondering if technical rationality has gotten to the point where someone could make one of these for an aspiring rationalist.
I think seeing a clear progression... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tfc4E3APREQkZ6hoK/is-there-a-rationalist-skill-tree-yet |
# The Parable Of The Talents
*\[Content note: scrupulosity and self-esteem triggers, IQ, brief discussion of weight and dieting. Not good for growth mindset.\]*
**I.**
I sometimes blog about research into IQ and human intelligence. I think most readers of this blog already know [IQ is 50% to 80% heritable](http://en... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zwDz9pgT43fRczkB4/the-parable-of-the-talents |
# AI Impacts project
I've been working on a thing with Paul Christiano that might interest some of you: the [AI Impacts](http://aiimpacts.org) project.
The basic idea is to apply the evidence and arguments that are kicking around in the world and various disconnected discussions respectively to the big questions rega... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/t9JAfpe2NgrbNPyFM/ai-impacts-project |
# How to save (a lot of) money on flying
I was going to wait to post this for _reasons_, but realized that was pretty dumb when the difference of a few weeks could literally save people hundreds, if not thousands of collective dollars.
If you fly regularly (or at all), you may already know about this method of saving... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pDqzSLyZPtM5eQgto/how-to-save-a-lot-of-money-on-flying |
# Intrapersonal comparisons: you might be doing it wrong.
[Cross-posted](http://rulerstothesky.com/2015/02/03/motivation/)
Nothing weighty or profound today, but I noticed a failure mode in myself which other people might plausibly suffer from so I thought I'd share it.
Basically, I noticed that sometimes when I dis... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dQiLmhCz25wL2WB6Y/intrapersonal-comparisons-you-might-be-doing-it-wrong |
# Questions from an imaginary statistical methods exam
Answers to these questions should be expressed numerically, where possible, but no number should be given without a justification for the specific value.
**1.** Suppose that you have mislaid your house keys, something most people have experienced at one time or a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9QkE5H43JmqoqRKJh/questions-from-an-imaginary-statistical-methods-exam |
# Don't estimate your creative intelligence by your critical intelligence
When I criticize, I'm a genius. I can go through a book of highly-referenced scientific articles and find errors in each of them. Boy, I feel smart. How are these famous people so dumb?
But when I write, I suddenly become stupid. I sometimes sp... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/h8HAAPFwGJwtc7fa2/don-t-estimate-your-creative-intelligence-by-your-critical |
# Request for proposals for Musk/FLI grants
As a follow-on to the recent thread on [purchasing research effectively](/r/discussion/lw/lkh/purchasing_research_effectively_open_thread/), I thought it'd make sense to post the request for proposals for projects to be funded by [Musk's $10M donation](/r/discussion/lw/ljo/e... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/CimQ4D5wLdCdbq8nX/request-for-proposals-for-musk-fli-grants |
# MIRI's technical agenda: an annotated bibliography, and other updates
This week, I'm pleased to present [Aligning Superintelligence with Human Interests: An Annotated Bibliography](http://intelligence.org/files/AnnotatedBibliography.pdf). This annotated bibliography complements our [technical agenda](http://intellig... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Krk5yQ3PddcmELERm/miri-s-technical-agenda-an-annotated-bibliography-and-other |
# Reductionist research strategies and their biases
I read an extract of (Wimsatt 1980) [\[1\]](#Wimsatt) which includes a list of common biases in reductionist research. I suppose most of us are reductionists most of the time, so these may be worth looking at.
_This is not an attack on reductionism!_ If you think re... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/p68zovubdaZd5NWHh/reductionist-research-strategies-and-their-biases |
# How to learn soft skills
Acquiring some skills is mostly about deliberate, explicit information transfer. For example, one might explicitly learn the capital of Missouri, or the number of miles one can drive before needing an oil change, or how to use the quadratic formula to solve quadratic equations.
For other s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ZGzDNfNCXzfx6hYAH/how-to-learn-soft-skills |
# Anatomy of Multiversal Utility Functions: Tegmark Level IV
**Outline:** Constructing utility functions that can be evaluated on any possible universe is known to be a confusing problem, since it is not obvious what sort of mathematical object should be the domain and what properties should the function obey. In a se... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/R5d2z79jWsZmrK5Bh/anatomy-of-multiversal-utility-functions-tegmark-level-iv |
# Attempted Telekinesis
Related to: [Compartmentalization in epistemic and instrumental rationality](/lw/2q6/compartmentalization_in_epistemic_and/); [That other kind of status](/lw/1kr/that_other_kind_of_status/).
**_Summary: _**_I’d like to share some techniques that made a large difference for me, and for several... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/eRohP4gbxuBuhqTbe/attempted-telekinesis |
# The Summer Solstice Paradox
_In which I call something a paradox that, like most “paradoxes”, isn’t really. But is nonetheless a confusing problem._
After every Winter Solstice I’ve run, I get people asking me “so what’s for Summer Solstice?” It seems like an obvious question – clearly the Winter Solstice is just a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XAYAqwrtskpRhhsGP/the-summer-solstice-paradox |
# Discussion of concrete near-to-middle term trends in AI
Instead of prognosticating on AGI/Strong AI/Singularities, I'd like to discuss more concrete advancements to expect in the near-term in AI. I invite those who have an interest in AI to discuss predictions or interesting trends they've observed.
This discussion... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w9Wx3PXSCfZFCGxff/discussion-of-concrete-near-to-middle-term-trends-in-ai |
# Wisdom for Smart Teens - my talk at SPARC 2014
I recently had the privilege of a 1-hour speaking slot at [SPARC](http://sparc-camp.org/), a yearly two-week camp for top high school math students.
Here's the video: **[Wisdom for Smart Teens](https://vimeo.com/119147000)**
Instead of picking a single topic, I indulg... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bYomzyFFpBQq9vNMv/wisdom-for-smart-teens-my-talk-at-sparc-2014 |
# 4 Common Prediction Failures and How to Fix Them [LINK]
A post I wrote on CFAR's blog about the errors we make in hedonic prospecting, based on Gilbert and Wilson's 2007 review article of the topic. Let me know what you think! Reposting from the discussion in case anyone missed it. :)
[Link.](http://rationality.or... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/j2aXSrRuSeBJsoanm/4-common-prediction-failures-and-how-to-fix-them-link |
# Human Minds are Fragile
We are familiar with the thesis that [Value is Fragile](/lw/y3/value_is_fragile/). This is why we are researching how to impart values to an AGI.
Embedded Minds are Fragile
-----------------------------
Besides values, it may be worth remembering that human minds too are very fragile.
A... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Kgc9NubGrCCW4ckRg/human-minds-are-fragile |
# The Truth About Mathematical Ability
There's widespread confusion about the nature of mathematical ability, for a variety of reasons:
* Most people don't know what math is.
* Most people don't know enough statistics to analyze the question properly.
* Most mathematicians are not very metacognitive.
* Very f... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/AXXaXJvf7WcTessog/the-truth-about-mathematical-ability |
# The Galileo affair: who was on the side of rationality?
Introduction
===============
A [recent survey](/lw/lhg/2014_survey_results/) showed that the LessWrong discussion forums mostly attract readers who are predominantly either atheists or agnostics, and who lean towards the left or far left in politics. As one... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rsAvZtTpTnHhmL5Ht/the-galileo-affair-who-was-on-the-side-of-rationality |
# Uncategories and empty categories
**Savory**
What does "savory" mean when talking about food? Merriam-Webster says:
* having a pleasant taste or smell
* having a spicy or salty quality without being sweet
* pleasing to the sense of taste especially by reason of effective seasoning
* pungently flavorful wit... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KuAXgpFLsJTaXwJLv/uncategories-and-empty-categories |
# An alarming fact about the anti-aging community
Past and Present
----------------
Ten years ago teenager me was hopeful. And stupid.
The world neglected aging as a disease, Aubrey had barely started spreading memes, to the point it was worth it for him to let me work remotely to help with Metuselah foundation. The... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nzeNA7TjmFeNHXhhp/an-alarming-fact-about-the-anti-aging-community |
# Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality discussion thread, February 2015, chapters 105-107
Two new short chapters! Since the next one is coming tomorrow and we know it'll be short, let's use one thread for both.
This is a new thread to discuss Eliezer Yudkowsky’s _[Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality](h... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dDjkxR5dLa7mJYe5t/harry-potter-and-the-methods-of-rationality-discussion-18 |
# Superintelligence 23: Coherent extrapolated volition
_This is part of a weekly reading group on [Nick Bostrom](http://www.nickbostrom.com/)'s book, [Superintelligence](http://www.amazon.com/Superintelligence-Dangers-Strategies-Nick-Bostrom/dp/0199678111). For more information about the group, and an index of posts s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/EQFfj5eC5mqBMxF2s/superintelligence-23-coherent-extrapolated-volition |
# The Value of a Life
*This post is cross-posted from* [*MindingOurWay*](http://mindingourway.com/the-value-of-a-life/)*. It's about some of my reasons for being an effective altruist. It's targeted more towards people who aren't EAs or who haven't heard of effective altruism, but some people here may also find it ins... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/dpMZHpA59xFFjCqBp/the-value-of-a-life |
# Innate Mathematical Ability
In my present [sequence](/lw/lpf/the_truth_about_mathematical_ability/) of posts, I'm writing about the nature of mathematical ability. My main reason for doing so is to provide information that can help improve mathematical ability.
Along the way, I'm going to discuss how people _can't_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5Xrv5aXfb95uHcseN/innate-mathematical-ability |
# Czech's first Meetup in Prague report
Hello,
I'm happy to inform Less Wrong community about new meet up in Czech Republic, Prague. Despite the fact that nobody came at meet up I'd organized 2 months ago (mainly because it was organized only two weeks ahead), yesterday we met in 5 people. Plus, some other people (ab... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/9JYWat54hxxP2XiAf/czech-s-first-meetup-in-prague-report |
# Vote for MIRI to be donated a share of reddit's advertising revenue
[http://www.reddit.com/donate?organization=582565917](http://www.reddit.com/donate?organization=582565917)
"Today we are announcing that we will donate 10% of our advertising revenue receipts in 2014 to non-profits chosen by the reddit community. W... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5hZy8dr5xTCqRmaEu/vote-for-miri-to-be-donated-a-share-of-reddit-s-advertising |
# [LINK] The Wrong Objections to the Many-Worlds Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics
Sean Carroll, physicist and proponent of Everettian Quantum Mechanics, has just [posted a new article](http://www.preposterousuniverse.com/blog/2015/02/19/the-wrong-objections-to-the-many-worlds-interpretation-of-quantum-mechanics/) g... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4xyeZkgYY6BF4BG5N/link-the-wrong-objections-to-the-many-worlds-interpretation |
# Easy wins aren't news
Recently I talked with a guy from [Grant Street Group](http://www.grantstreet.com/). They make, among other things, software with which local governments can auction their bonds on the Internet.
By making the auction process more transparent and easier to participate in, they enable local gove... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/e4rHGkBmPyNE8JHi2/easy-wins-aren-t-news |
# Money threshold Trigger Action Patterns
In American society, talking about money is a taboo. It is ok to talk about how much money someone else made when they sold their company, or how much money you would like to earn yearly if you got a raise, but in many different ways, talking about money is likely to trigger s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Tbgn8vzeYtuTsfngb/money-threshold-trigger-action-patterns |
# Report -- Allocating risk mitigation across time
I've just released a Future of Humanity Institute technical report, written as part of the [Global Priorities Project](http://globalprioritiesproject.org/).
Abstract:
> This article is about priority-setting for work aiming to reduce existential risk. Its chief clai... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2TEJrWmBFz7BFPcBz/report-allocating-risk-mitigation-across-time |
# Can we decrease the risk of worse-than-death outcomes following brain preservation?
_Content note_: discussion of things that are worse than death
Over the past few years, a few people have claimed rejection of cryonics due to concerns that they might be revived into a world that they preferred less than being dea... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qFhZkznnwzTpaKxqh/can-we-decrease-the-risk-of-worse-than-death-outcomes |
# Request: Sequences book reading group
The book version of the Sequences is supposed to be published in the next month or two, if I understand correctly. I would really enjoy an online reading group to go through the book together.
Reasons for a reading group:
* It would give some of us the motivation to actually... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/bPJ6zbkAJHED5imuP/request-sequences-book-reading-group |
# Announcing LessWrong Digest
I've been making rounds on social media with the following message.
> Great content on LessWrong isn't as frequent as it used to be, so not as many people read it as frequently. This makes sense. However, I read it at least once every two days for personal interest. So, I'm starting a Le... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w7nzyoJrbkta96sMm/announcing-lesswrong-digest |
# "Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning" - computer learns 49 different games
[full text](http://www.readcube.com/articles/10.1038%2Fnature14236?shared_access_token=Lo_2hFdW4MuqEcF3CVBZm9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0P5kedCCNjz3FJ2FhQCgXkApOr3ZSsJAldp-tw3IWgTseRnLpAc9xQq-vTA2Z5Ji9lg16_WvCy4SaOgpK5XXA6ecqo8d8J... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hX58sJRAzJF3HGMMo/human-level-control-through-deep-reinforcement-learning |
# If you can see the box, you can open the box
First post here, and I'm disagreeing with something in the main sequences. Hubris acknowledged, here's what I've been thinking about. It comes from the post "[Are your enemies innately evil?](/lw/i0/are_your_enemies_innately_evil/)":
> On September 11th, 2001, nineteen... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qpuufdn37Kav8jZcN/if-you-can-see-the-box-you-can-open-the-box |
# What subjects are important to rationality, but not covered in Less Wrong?
As many people have noted, Less Wrong currently isn't receiving as much content as we would like. One way to think about expanding the content is to think about which areas of study deserve more articles written on them.
For example, I expec... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kBr4HaHqCLTLevGdN/what-subjects-are-important-to-rationality-but-not-covered |
# [Link] Algorithm aversion
It has long been known that algorithms out-perform human experts on a range of topics ([here's a LW post on this by lukeprog](/lw/3gv/statistical_prediction_rules_outperform_expert/)). Why, then, is it that people continue to mistrust algorithms, in spite of their superiority, and instead c... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ExyDBCPLRcLJSDQzn/link-algorithm-aversion |
# In memory of Leonard Nimoy, most famous for playing the (straw) rationalist Spock, what are your top 3 ST:TOS episodes with him?
Hopefully at least one or two would show a virtue of non-straw rationality.
[Episode list](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Star_Trek:_The_Original_Series_episodes) | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xHP6raPnfT9CNXykk/in-memory-of-leonard-nimoy-most-famous-for-playing-the-straw |
# Best of Rationality Quotes, 2014 Edition
Here is the way-too-late 2014 edition of the Best of Rationality Quotes collection. ([Here is last year's](/lw/jlq/best_of_rationality_quotes_2013_edition/).) Thanks Huluk for nudging me to do it.
**[Best of Rationality Quotes 2014](http://people.mokk.bme.hu/~daniel/rational... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TMXEXNJQfKKuqL24T/best-of-rationality-quotes-2014-edition |
# Imagining Scarcity
**Sequence summary**: This is a series of 18 articles on the most fundamental concepts of economics: scarcity, opportunity cost, marginalism, and self-interest. These are the atoms, molecules, cells, the core things you need to have a grip on to move on with the science, and, if all goes well, we ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Ltj43doTPPXvj6hsN/imagining-scarcity |
# Announcing the Complice Less Wrong Study Hall
(If you're familiar with the backstory of the LWSH, you can skip to [paragraph 5](#paragraph-5). If you just want the link to the chat, click here: [LWSH on Complice](http://complice.co/room/lesswrong "Less Wrong Study Hall • coworking room on Complice"))
The Less Wrong... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rGMTd5jji4aQN5Bg3/announcing-the-complice-less-wrong-study-hall |
# What Scarcity Is and Isn't
**Sequence summary**: This is a series of 18 articles on the most fundamental concepts of economics: scarcity, opportunity cost, marginalism, and self-interest. These are the atoms, molecules, cells, the core things you need to have a grip on to move on with the science, and, if all goes w... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kakaG3jYatYKe5w4B/what-scarcity-is-and-isn-t |
# Announcement: The Sequences eBook will be released in mid-March
The Sequences are being released as an eBook, titled _**Rationality: From AI to Zombies**_, on March 12.
We went with the name "Rationality: From AI to Zombies" (based on [shminux](/lw/h7t/help_us_name_the_sequences_ebook/8s49)'s suggestion) to make it... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/FkHvzEgykPwCcRSx5/announcement-the-sequences-ebook-will-be-released-in-mid |
# [POLL] LessWrong group on YourMorals.org (2015)
[In 2011](/lw/8lk/poll_lesswrong_group_on_yourmoralsorg/), [InquilineKea](/user/InquilineKea/) posted a Discussion topic on [YourMorals.org](http://www.yourmorals.org/), a psychology research website which provides scores of psychology scales/inventories/surveys/tests ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3Jup5SuWCSupjNR7z/poll-lesswrong-group-on-yourmorals-org-2015 |
# Keep Your Identity Fluid [LINK]
Building on [Graham's Small Identity](http://www.paulgraham.com/identity.html), here I look at the hazards of identity, and give a suggestion for leveraging it to your advantage, as well as avoiding pitfalls.
As per [my last article](/r/lesswrong/lw/lnx/4_common_prediction_failures_... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5TzaxmKfZsAFEABvj/keep-your-identity-fluid-link |
# Neutral hours: a tool for valuing time
Prioritisation is mostly about working out how to trade different resources off against one another. Prioritisation problems come at different scales: for individuals, for companies or organisations, for the world at large. At the Global Priorities Project we’re mostly interest... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qjLb9ESxx7Mfp2iX8/neutral-hours-a-tool-for-valuing-time |
# HPMOR Wrap Parties: Resources, Information and Discussion
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality - Wrap Party Summary Thread
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
As many of you probably read on the HPMOR [author's note](http://hpmor.com/notes/103/) last month, I am the coordi... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wctsqc4PvmjkEKR2J/hpmor-wrap-parties-resources-information-and-discussion |
# New(ish) AI control ideas
EDIT: this post is no longer being maintained, it has been replaced by [this new one](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=601).
I recently went on a two day intense solitary "AI control retreat", with the aim of generating new ideas for making safe AI. The "retreat" format wasn't really a... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BEJ4PRQGXuz6PRYwB/new-ish-ai-control-ideas |
# False thermodynamic miracles
_A putative new idea for AI control; index [here](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=601).__ See also __[Utility vs Probability: idea synthesis](/r/discussion/lw/lyh/utility_vs_probability_idea_synthesis/)._
Ok, here is the problem:
* You have to create an AI that believes (or acts... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/F8ck6xZMeDBkZFSpo/false-thermodynamic-miracles |
# Precisely Bound Demons and their Behavior
EY posted this on reddit, I'd like to know what you'd do with it:
https://www.reddit.com/r/HPMOR/comments/2y56qg/precisely\_bound\_demons\_and\_their_behavior/
I can't promise this will turn into a sufficiently good environment for storytelling or that I'll write in it, bu... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/wTEbLpWzYLT5zy5Ra/precisely-bound-demons-and-their-behavior |
# Compilation of currently existing project ideas to significantly impact the world
One of the problems the LW, EA, CFAR X-risk community has been faced with [recently discussed on Slate Star Codex](http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/03/05/a-cascade-of-dunbar-numbers/) is the absorption of people interested in researching... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/g5JSm8RB2MX9YsBS3/compilation-of-currently-existing-project-ideas-to |
# Can we talk about mental illness?
For a site extremely focused on fixing bad thinking patterns, I've noticed a bizarre lack of discussion here. Considering the high correlation between intelligence and mental illness, you'd think it would be a bigger topic.
I personally suffer from Generalized Anxiety Disorder and... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/yFYMYQzu4yojXZ9yG/can-we-talk-about-mental-illness |
# Impartial ethics and personal decisions
Some moral questions I’ve seen discussed here:
* A trolley is about to run over five people, and the only way to prevent that is to push a fat bystander in front of the trolley to stop it. Should I?
* Is it better to allow 3^^^3 people to get a dust speck in their eye, or... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/pCiiS5XmXGCfAcb96/impartial-ethics-and-personal-decisions |
# Counterfactual trade
_Counterfactual trade_ is a form of [acausal trade](http://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Acausal_trade), between counterfactual agents. Compared to a lot of acausal trade this makes it more practical to engage in with limited computational and predictive powers. In Section 1 I’ll argue that some human... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nfzeCFWJtazrnZSD8/counterfactual-trade |
# Human Capital Contracts
Cross-posted on my blog [here](https://effectivereaction.wordpress.com/2015/03/09/human-capital-contracts/). Partially inspired by some slatestarcodex discussion [here](http://slatestarcodex.com/2015/02/12/money-money-everywhere-but-not-a-cent-to-spend/).
Summary: _Human Capital Contracts wo... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/SGeHmCe64d5pyGpYu/human-capital-contracts |
# Why the culture of exercise/fitness is broken and how to fix it
### Summary
The culture of exercise/fitness suffers from a motivation (and discipline) problem. Sports turn it around and make it actually fun, lessening the need for those.
#### The problem
Despite the the media and blogs and forums talking incredib... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/RkRfwPZ6YDQpW7vid/why-the-culture-of-exercise-fitness-is-broken-and-how-to-fix |
# Resource gathering and pre-corriged agents
_A putative new idea for AI control; index [here](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=601)._
Resource-gathering agent
------------------------
It will often be useful to have a model of a “pure” resource gathering agent – one motivated only to gather resources, accumulat... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MP5vNur4wqF6Yzi5v/resource-gathering-and-pre-corriged-agents |
# "Spiritual" techniques that actually work thread
This thread is for:
\- Perfectly natural and functional ideas that came from a spiritual, religious, occultist, parapsychologist etc. source (perhaps with some "baggage")
\- Techniques that are bit difficult to explain and may be seen by the gullible as magic, but t... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/qqEHWo6Zt6bf8sCZd/spiritual-techniques-that-actually-work-thread |
# Acausal trade barriers
_A putative new idea for AI control; index [here](https://agentfoundations.org/item?id=601)._
Many of the ideas presented here require AIs to be antagonistic towards each other - or at least hypothetically antagonistic towards hypothetical other AIs. This can fail if the AIs engage in [acausa... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/rxp7wPeyq8cKaaC4a/acausal-trade-barriers |
# Preface
You hold in your hands a compilation of two years of daily blog posts. In retrospect, I look back on that project and see a large number of things I did completely wrong. I’m fine with that. Looking back and *not* seeing a huge number of things I did wrong would mean that neither my writing nor my understand... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uXn3LyA8eNqpvdoZw/preface |
# The World: An Introduction
Previous essays have discussed human reasoning, language, goals, and social dynamics. Mathematics, physics, and biology were cited to explain patterns in human behavior, but little has been said about humanity’s place in nature, or about the natural world in its own right.
Just as it was ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ujoJSat3ypzp3tmpj/the-world-an-introduction |
# Optimization and the Intelligence Explosion
Among the topics I haven’t delved into here is the notion of an optimization process. Roughly, this is the idea that your power as a mind is your ability to hit small targets in a large search space—this can be either the space of possible futures (planning) or the space o... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8vpf46nLMDYPC6wA4/optimization-and-the-intelligence-explosion |
# Beginnings: An Introduction
This, the final book of _Rationality: From AI to Zombies_, is less a conclusion than a call to action. In keeping with _Becoming Stronger_’s function as a jumping-off point for further investigation, I’ll conclude by citing resources the reader can use to move beyond these sequences and s... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/tPWZfmNpstRMCBjFM/beginnings-an-introduction |
# Rationality: An Introduction
In the autumn of 1951, a football game between Dartmouth and Princeton turned unusually rough. A pair of psychologists, Dartmouth’s Albert Hastorf and Princeton’s Hadley Cantril, decided to ask students from both schools which team had initiated the rough play. Nearly everyone agreed tha... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8qccXytpkEhEAkjjM/rationality-an-introduction |
# Biases: An Introduction
Imagine reaching into an urn that contains seventy white balls and thirty red ones, and plucking out ten mystery balls.
Perhaps three of the ten balls will be red, and you’ll correctly guess how many red balls total were in the urn. Or perhaps you’ll happen to grab four red balls, or some ot... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/ptxnyfLWqRZ98wnYi/biases-an-introduction |
# Minds: An Introduction
You’re a mind, and that puts you in a pretty strange predicament.
Very few things get to be minds. You’re that odd bit of stuff in the universe that can form predictions and make plans, weigh and revise beliefs, suffer, dream, notice ladybugs, or feel a sudden craving for mango. You can even ... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8GhSZzsQmusCN9is7/minds-an-introduction |
# Ends: An Introduction
Value theory is the study of what people care about. It’s the study of our goals, our tastes, our pleasures and pains, our fears and our ambitions.
That includes conventional morality. Value theory subsumes things we _wish_ we cared about, or would care about if we were wiser and better people... | https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/KfEyHB6WXFW6q2D5S/ends-an-introduction |
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