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Speaker A: Bankless nation. We have a bankless takes episode for you because we wanted to just talk about, get some of our ideas out there and the ideas going on and where we are in the current crypto cycle. Is it over yet? Are we about to enter all time highs? I don't know. We're in kind of like this flat zone. So wha... |
Speaker B: Yeah, there's a lot of conversations going on that I want to just elevate here on the episode today and just kind of unpack. One of them is, where exactly are we in this cycle? After three months of flat crypto prices? I think people are just, like, re hashing out the conversation of, like, is this. Is this ... |
Speaker A: That's like a Raoul Paul term. And by the way, he says banana zone. He gives it this, like, incredible accent, which I think is part of the reason it's picked up so well. Oh, yeah. I mean, just banana zone versus the way we say is way better. |
Speaker B: Also, China is buying a lot of gold, and so what's going on over there? And what does that have to do with risk on assets and what does that have to do with bitcoin and not connected to anything else? But we'll also give a quick update on the Iggy azalea meme coin because that's what everyone wants. |
Speaker A: Do we have to? You have to do that, David? |
Speaker B: Depends on how long we go. |
Speaker A: All right. All right, David. Let's get in. Where do we start this conversation from? Like, where we are in the cycle perspective? Should we start with this tweet from Ignis? They start like this. This bull run is boring. |
Speaker B: Thanks for asking. |
Speaker A: I got to admit, I know I prompted the question because I know you already put it in the agenda disorder, but this bull market is boring is kind of a sentiment that a lot of listeners are probably feeling right now. Right? Because I think, I don't know what our attention span is in crypto, but it's got to be ... |
Speaker B: I would also say that this has been a theme for a while, that this is the first price appreciation, if we even call it a bull market. Just like the first time that number has gone up due to exogenous factors. In 2017 and 2021, we had activities in crypto. In 2017, there was the ICO movement, regardless of ho... |
Speaker A: Yeah, there's less fun defi Degen stuff on the frontier. Like the Degen activity is all around meme coins and slub coins, which I know you're dying to talk about the slub coins, David, but like, think about some of the bankless podcasts this year, and they've been incredibly important. Like, the topics is ju... |
Speaker B: Right. Point farming and meme coins is like, that's for us. That's not like waking up people to the frontier of finance or the intersection of culture and art and being on chain. That was all like 2021 stuff. So this is one of the motivations as to why people think that maybe just because, like, Solana did, ... |
Speaker A: So this is not the end of the bull cycle. It's not even the beginning of the bull cycle, basically, where that. That is yet to come. And that's going to take us to. |
Speaker B: Valhalla is a take, is a bull market take for sure. And I think it's really a matter of, like, do you think that it's possible that the Solana and the Jito airdrop that just kind of, like, tugged the bull market cycle, like the curve cycle to the left, it pulled forward a bit of the bullishness, maybe becaus... |
Speaker A: So that's a take you have. Are you saying, is that different than the take that vance just gave or the other take that we read out where we're in the 0th inning, we haven't even started? You're just saying that. I think this is a David Hoffman tweet that a lot of the bull market activity has just been pulled... |
Speaker B: Yeah, I think people are considering, myself included, that maybe these were idiosyncratic events that don't actually fit the pattern. And the real pattern is like the very typical, like, insane cycle that we just haven't had yet. I think people are just trying to rationalize, like, why we've had three month... |
Speaker A: We're starting to get some price targets, not from crypto natives, but from tradfi. So maybe it's more significant when it comes from tradfi. I'm not exactly sure, but here are some bitcoin price targets. 250k on the low end for this upcoming bull market. Chamath says five hundred k, one million at the high ... |
Speaker B: Yeah, so this take clip from Tremath happened after the all in besties were talking about the political favorability to crypto as a result of the Ethereum ETF and the election. And then Chamath starts pivoting into bitcoin price targets. So let's go ahead and get into that clip right now. |
Speaker C: You should really look at the pattern of bitcoin after a having. So here's a little bitcoin price analysis for you guys. So there's been a couple of having cycles that have happened. And I asked him to go back and look at the price performance one month after a having, three months, six months, nine months, ... |
Speaker B: These are just not financial advice. |
Speaker C: It's not financial advice. These are just data. We took these and we applied it to the price of bitcoin. And if you go to the next page, you start to see what could happen if you just take the average of the last few cycles, because the first cycle was so extreme, and you start doing, oh, so you're just doin... |
Speaker B: Cycle two and three here. |
Speaker C: To be clear, just the averages of cycle two and three. And what you start to see is some really meaningful appreciation. And when I talk to wences about this, how he explained it, which makes a lot of sense to me, is there are a lot of countries that will never look at bitcoin credibly, even if they support ... |
Speaker B: Okay, so the prices on the screen, since he never actually said them, is nine months out, a bitcoin price of $240,000 from the happening, nine months from the happening, twelve months out, $360,000, and then 18 months out, almost $500,000. Very large price targets. And this is shamath on, I think, actually t... |
Speaker A: Himself, tech podcast, I would say tech investor podcast, most downloaded, right? Like, it's a very influential, it's, it's. |
Speaker B: In the top five podcasts. Like, full stop. Like, it doesn't matter what category. And so the amount of influence that this podcast has itself can like, actually like help create this outcome. |
Speaker A: But he was saying three things. So like, one, he tethered this with the havening, which I want to come back to when we talk about this concept of, uh, you know, the banana zone. And two, he said, this time it's different because of the institutional inroads that bitcoin has made. And then three, he talks abo... |
Speaker B: Yeah. So this is also what's been happening out in the macro world, and this has been happening for a while, but it's just kind of crescendoing slowly. Crescendoing in slow motion. Here's a Balaji tweet where he says, china sold $50 billion of us bonds last quarter. Officially, they buy $25 billion of gold p... |
Speaker A: Yeah. Like, I mean, to link this to an earlier tweet from. From Vance, if millennials were running the central banks in their countries, and they soon will be, and some of them are, you know, like, probably rising in prominence and, like, going to become the gray hairs themselves. If they were running the ce... |
Speaker B: To me, when I hear about big nations, big, powerful, wealthy nations de dollarizing, all I hear is like, okay, that's just one more step towards crypto. That's just like another coffin of just like, the. The barrier between people owning crypto and not owning crypto. And so this is why some people are less, ... |
Speaker A: Okay, let's get into the banana zone, David. So Chamath said that the four year cycles are sort of like bitcoin happening driven. And I know when we recently had Raoul Paul on the podcast, he said they are, but they're actually not. It's more about global liquidity. And it just so happens that coincidentally... |
Speaker B: Happens at the same time. |
Speaker A: Yeah, four year global liquidity cycles. And I think that's pretty important to his concept of the banana zone. But give it to us. What is the banana zone, David? And how do we know that we're in it? |
Speaker B: So, looking at the charts on screen. If you go back and just look at, like, all of the bitcoin bus cycles over the years, if you go to the next bus cycle, the previous bus cycle barely shows up on the chart. Like, it is a blip. Like, the $20 price rise to bitcoin in, like, late 2019, early 2010 looks like no... |
Speaker A: You got to adjust those charts in log scale to actually see anything that, you know, like, it gets exciting. |
Speaker B: So the banana zone very. Is very easily defined as just like, the hockey stick zone is when things go bananas. Yeah. Like, things go nuts. Absolutely nuts. And previous prices just get, like, we are not talking about two x or three x. We're talking about order of magnitude. And so if you look at this last ch... |
Speaker A: So we can very easily tell David we're not in the banana zone, right. That that much is clear. |
Speaker B: Things are not crazy. And I think that's why when we open up this podcast with Defi Ignis tweet, where this bull market's boring, it's like, yeah. Cause things haven't gone bananas yet. But this is what all of the different commentators are kind of pointing towards, is we have 5.5%. Interest rates can only g... |
Speaker A: Raoul's reason for. For why this happens, too, is it's not about the halvening. It's about global liquidity. So, like, here's a chart showing, like, uh, the GMI total liquidity index over time. And you can sort of see where we are. And we are not anywhere near peak global liquidity that is yet to come. We're... |
Speaker B: And I do want to leave room for, like, it doesn't have to play out exactly like it has in the past. It doesn't have to be a perfect four year cycle. Like, we had inflation. We had. We got a 5.5% interest rates. Like, things are different. Like, we had 7% inflation at some point. And so this is perhaps why pe... |
Speaker A: Right? |
Speaker B: So, like, this is why we are in this three month, like, just flat prices, where bitcoin inflows just are kind of paused. We're not really seeing too much action. We have no new retail people. We have no new endogenous catalysts. Maybe the banana zone actually isn't, like, we're not. Maybe we're not on the cu... |
Speaker A: And here's the thing. Given that everything we've, we've talked about so far, it feels like it would be a mistake to be offsides in this type of a market. |
Speaker B: Right? A pretty zone market. No, you bananas and bananas, where it's. |
Speaker A: Like, super obvious that the last three times we've had a banana zone moment. And a lot of things are kind of teeing up for us to have another one. Being offsides in this type of market like that seems to me the worst possible mistake. This is not a guarantee. |
Speaker B: If you're in crypto. You're here for the banana zone. That is the. Why would you not be here when you need exposure? |
Speaker A: Exposure, yeah, absolutely. Okay, so the Ethereum ETF could be part of the catalyst for this banana zone moment. And Raoul calls this the banana zone squared, actually, he says, what the hell happens to the price of ETH if there's a big demand for the ETF and 30% remains staked or off market, and burning mak... |
Speaker B: Well, specifically, he's talking about what happens if they're, I think big demand is means, like, demand that exceeds expectations, while we have, like, quote unquote, ultrasound money. And what that means is 30% of it is staked, and we have the burn. Uh, and so with, we all know that, like, eth, when it re... |
Speaker A: Are still people fading the Ethereum ETF, though. And one of the objections has been, well, okay, the Ethereum ETF is cool, but it doesn't even have staking. And so, like, real investors are going to want to stake their ETH. And so they'll, they'll look at this ETF product and won't be as good as staked ETH ... |
Speaker B: I think that is silly, in my opinion. And I put this into a facetious tweet where I say, quote, the ETH ETF will have poor flows due to lack of staking. Okay, buddy. The bitcoin ETF doesn't have staking either. And so, like, people who are looking at the ETH ETF, they might not even be aware of staking. Like... |
Speaker A: Yeah, it's, you know, the ETH stake rate is something like two to 3% or something like this. |
Speaker B: Yeah. |
Speaker A: No, no one buys a stock for two to 3% dividend. Right? You don't buy apple because of its dividend. You buy it because you're like, it's. It's the future. You're very bullish on it, like its products, and you're analyzing its cash flows and these types of reasons. Yeah, I completely agree with you there. Do ... |
Speaker B: This analysis, just as a. This individual actually did napkin math, maybe better than napkin math, maybe he actually did some real math. But these numbers still seem very low, like a bull case of, if ether has 50% of the demand of the bitcoin ETF that we see, $6,700 eth, doesn't that seem low to you? That se... |
Speaker A: Yeah, I think so, too. But these are just inflow numbers. Right? There's other catalysts for. Why be bullish on ether? Like post ETF? Like one primarily. Primarily is now ethereum is no longer a security. No one can ever argue that it is. And so what sort of confidence does this give institutional investors ... |
Speaker B: Just buying ETF's bitcoin but don't buy eth? |
Speaker A: Yeah, yeah, yeah, exactly. So I think it's definitely on the conservative end of things, but that could be a catalyst for the bull market as well. All right, David, I know you were dying to talk about them, and it certainly is in the news. So what about celeb coins. We talked earlier that this bull market is... |
Speaker B: Well, okay, so until further notice, until the mother coin, it does the thing that many bears think that it will, which is go to zero. Until further notice, like there are, it's worth paying attention to at the very least. If you open up the chart of the mother token. |
Speaker A: Mother is Iggy Azalea's token. |
Speaker B: Yes. Hashtag or dollar sign. Mother is her ticker symbol. Is that an 88, $89 million valuation and it actually hasn't gone down. And so we're into like two week two of the mother token. So still very early, but like, people are giving Iggy Azalea some credit. So Edgar, who is a Solana founder, Defi founder, ... |
Speaker A: I can't believe this. So this tweet actually ends with something that sounds incredibly like pro mother, pro Iggy Azalea. On this token launch, you're watching how absolutely insane the velocity of a world class entrepreneur can be. And you have a front row seat. This is hustle, pure and simple. One day coul... |
Speaker B: It's not something else. Yeah, I mean, I would like a full unpacking and analysis of, like, the ownership of Iggy. She says she's hired devs to do what? What do you do with your meme coin? Like, in my. In my opinion, you can't just, like, work on your meme coin without injecting utility into it. And that's w... |
Speaker A: This is Chris Berninski saying good things about mother two, which actually surprised me a lot. If mother breaks into sustainable value creation, it'll also be the mother of this cycle, celebrity experimentation. So it's kind of like, it's an experiment, right? It's a great cultural experiment. Um, what a fa... |
Speaker B: It's also worth noting that, um, and this is a tweet from croissant eth. More tokens have been made in the last few months than the entire history of ethereum. And this is actually just on the ethereum ecosystem. So nevermind all the tokens that are also on Solana, but this is actually something that is an i... |
Speaker A: So are you saying you think slab meme coins could be sort of not the future of finance, let's say, but like an onboarding tool for more retail this cycle and one that is good and is sustainable. Are you willing to say that? |
Speaker B: Not going that far. The quality of a meme coin, and it is highly dependent on, like, its creator and a single creator that has power over a meme coin, there's, like, a lot of power and control, and I don't think the incentives are there because the incentive. Why does a celebrity make a meme coin? To get ric... |
Speaker A: But, yeah, my take is, like, speculation is very different than adoption. I don't. I don't think speculation, like, necessarily drives adoption. And there are many cases where we've seen it drive kind of negative adoption, because think about your net promoter score, your happiness with the crypto token that... |
Speaker B: Yeah, like, why, why did we just talk about meme coins at the end of the banana zone? The ETh, ETF's china buying gold. And like, all of this bullish macro stuff is we're still looking for our internal, the crypto endogenous bull market. Like, we. Maybe it has always been meme coins, but I don't think so bec... |
Speaker A: My take on this too, David, is we don't even have to worry about that. Just don't overthink it would be my book. Add to this and part of the concluding take, it's very clear that we're not in the bubble yet. We are pre banana zone. Some people think we'll never get a banana zone. But that would be an outlier... |
Speaker B: Yeah. There's one takeaway that you have from this episode. It's that you're in crypto to have exposure to the banana zone. And the banana zone is a small, acute amount of time where you get all the gains. And if you feel like we've had the banana zone so far, this bull market, we haven't, we haven't yet goo... |
Speaker A: You're relatively sober yet because you're a little bit pre bonanza zone to think about your sell plan for this market as well. And it doesn't mean you sell everything, but you might want to lock in some gains as, like, we enter, and now's the time to be thinking about zone. Don't do your sell plan when we'r... |
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