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Collection for podcasts • 511 items • Updated • 2
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A | Bankless nation. Question for you today on bankless takes. Is the bull market over? David, I was scanning crypto Twitter, catching up on the weekend, and it certainly seemed like it by the time everyone's bearish. |
B | Yeah. Why? |
A | When? Why? Why did crypto sentiment flip bearish? It was like, it was like four things. It was the ETH. ETF will be nothing. What's the take? Gox mount Gox is going to dump on you. It was. There's no new crypto use cases. This cycle is not like 2021. There's too much token supply. |
B | No retail. |
A | Yeah, no new retail. |
B | All the flood is compounding Germany's dumping on us. |
A | An entire country. Yeah, what the heck? Come on, Germany, get with it. So I guess the question for today, is this just summertime slowness or is the bull market over? Did we hit all time highs? |
B | Was that it? So the last bull market, 2021, I think everyone said, like, ended really abruptly and kind of like, prematurely. So, like, are we getting that twice? Is that just like what crypto is? Maybe crypto is always just like. We're destined to be sub $5 trillion market cap. That's just what we are. |
A | I think that's the topic for today. Right. We want to gauge the sentiment. We want to talk about the bear case for a while, and then maybe, maybe the other side of that, maybe the bull case. And what we actually think towards the end of this, David, as we're going to this episode, prices were down actually significantl... |
B | Can I call it that? So bitcoin dropped down below $60,000 to 59 and a half. We are currently almost back up to $62,000. Uh, ether did something pretty similar. Uh, ether is at 3400. We've seen these prices recently. We've seen these prices. What was it like before the ETH ETF was approved? Ether got down to 2900. Its b... |
A | All right, guys, so that's the episode today. We're going to give you the diagnosis here on what's going on in Bearville. Is the bear, is the bull market over? And what do these things mean? The Mount Gox news, if you haven't heard about that, we'll get into it. ETF flows. Maybe they're not what people will hope. We'll... |
B | Monday we're recording the 25th. |
A | Today marks the largest drawdown on bitcoin in more than a year. We felt the knock on effects of a slow bleed down from 70k, but really hard to put to words how strong today's selling was relative to the last few months. We got an 8% sell off of. |
B | Bitcoin candle down one day candle. |
A | That's a lot. Okay. Like, no wonder people are failing bearish after this. What's going on here? |
B | Well, there's a bunch of different things all putting it together. I think the big news that we're going to talk about is the Mount Gox distributions. That is kind of the new thing that's in the meta. And if you've been around in crypto before, you know that Mount Gox always comes back. There's been this supply of Moun... |
A | Yeah, they're saying this wasn't the bull market we were promised and we hoped for. So what's going on here? And is that kind of the end? This is Jim Bianco commenting on that 8% down, like the largest bitcoin candle down in a year. If this holds, it will be bitcoin's worst day since March 2023. You know what happened ... |
B | That's how much. How much dollars was sold into the market. So that implying that's actually, like, buy. There's also that much buying. Uh, but like, yeah, so, like $3.4 billion, like, what hit the market in a cell pressure. |
A | Here's a colorful chart. What are you showing here? |
B | This is a chart of bitcoin, as well as a bunch of column art altcoins, just random altcoins, like litecoin, Cardano, Doge, XRP, Wifi, and bitcoin is down worse than all of them. Bitcoin in this chart is down, like 2.3%, while most of these things are down 1% or less. And this is uncharacteristic, where bitcoin is usual... |
A | Also saw this tweet thread that kind of summed it up from Jason Choi. He says he titles the whole thread. It's kind of a long one. Welcome to Beartown. I'm not going to read it all, but he goes through all of these different metrics that he's seeing that makes it feel kind of like crypto, feel toppy, let's say. And I'l... |
B | Watching their own print here now. |
A | Yeah, Jay, really. And it's like these tokens have pumped and then sold off. So Jason's saying, hey, there's these qualitative metrics too that make this feel a little toppy and, like, falling off the top, including celebrity involvement and celebrity endorsement. |
B | There's another take. I saw my timeline that I thought was just, like, emblematic of the times in quotes. Crypto trading close to all time high. Arguments are logically flawed, as they lack timing and benchmark decisions. Yes, crypto is still trading below 2021 highs. That's a problem. It's a sign of weakness, not a st... |
A | Yeah, sentiment is reflexive. But I do think there's something to this underlying tweet is like, people are looking over at the S and P and, like, the stock market, and they're seeing all time highs over there, and they're looking at crypto and they're seeing, like, no all time highs, nothing close. And so, like, there... |
B | Is going to love the ETH ETF. |
A | Yes, and not necessarily immediately, but like, inflows will steadily, like, come in and we'll get like, you know, 20% of the inflows or so of the bitcoin ETF. And maybe that's a conservative estimate. And those flows will be good for Ethereum because there's not very much ETh supply on the market. This take, this anal... |
B | Yeah, he says, personally, I believe the expectations of crypto natives are overinflated and disconnected from the true preferences of tradfi allocators. So I think that's kind of the main punchline here, is that the true preferences of tradfi allocators is actually just not on the radar of crypto natives. We actually ... |
A | He says this in conclusion, before the ETF launch, I expect ETH to trade from three k to 3800. So that's within range of where we are now after the ETF launch. My expectation is 2400 to 300. So, David, a price point lower than we are now after the Ethereum ETF products go live. Right? It's like, I think a lot of the bu... |
B | About Mount Gox in this podcast? |
A | All right, Mount Gox. This was actually breaking news after how many years has it been? David? 1111 years. Is the, is the Mount Gox, is all of that supply finally going to become unleashed on the market? What are we looking at here? |
B | Not all of it, but yes, we actually are getting a date that is going to be July, early July is what they said, which is, you know, that's like two weeks. So the rumor is that $9 billion of bitcoin is going to become available and distributed to creditors of Mount Gox. It is perceived by the market. The classic, like Mo... |
A | A lot. |
B | It's a lot. And so they would. They're going to sell. Clearly they're going to sell. They're like forest holders for eleven years. They're going, that's, that's going to be selling pressure. And so it's been perceived by the market that when these Mount Gox coins finally get put into the hands of their owners, per the ... |
A | Yeah. It's like one of those like China's banning crypto type recurring, like cycles. Mount Gox, like supply is going to become released, but this time it actually looks like it's going to be true. And we're talking about a substantial amount of bitcoin. $9 billion worth of bitcoin. |
B | Remember earlier in this podcast we just talked about how $3.4 billion was net sold on Monday? That was the big red candle day. |
A | Yeah. |
B | And so the market is like, we got nine more billion to get sold. |
A | Yeah. So maybe like, obviously part of the Monday price jump was your price drop, was frontrunning some of that activity. But like, we actually haven't seen the pressure. So when is that happening? Am I reading July, early July, yeah. And does it all come in a lump sum? All 9 billion is available right away. |
B | No, we'll talk about that. But does the market know that? I'm not so sure. |
A | Interesting. And to add insult to injury, David, do you know that Germany, the country of Germany, is actually dumping on us? |
B | Where did Germany get bitcoin? |
A | Yeah, they got it in a seizure. So there was I don't know. It was like, I'm just not the pirate bay, but it's some sort of black market, gray market type of thing. |
B | Intelligence seizure. |
A | Yeah. German government sees $3 billion worth of bitcoin. They've started to sell, and they're continuing to sell. You can see their transactions. They're just paper on chain. Yeah. So the entire country of Germany, Arkham is doing this. So, yeah, they're paper handing. I don't know. Maybe they have to. By law. It feel... |
B | They should change that. |
A | Anyway, they're dumping on us, too. It's not just Mount Gox, and that's not all. The fud kind of continues. So how about this? We have no new use cases in crypto take. Like, the best we can do are these cheap celebrity meme coins. We got nothing new. What's. What take are we looking at here? |
B | Yeah, this is Saigar, who. I wouldn't say that this take is. Well, this take is actually old. This is June 14. So, like, a little bit over a week ago. But it's a take that has been, like, brewing. And a lot of the recent, like, I'm saying, a lot of the recent sucker punches that we've got just recently, the Mount Gox, ... |
A | Oh, he's done this before. |
B | He's done this, like, four times before. Jason Zack XPT is, like, in his mentions, in his replies, like, every tweet, saying, like, just FYI, this guy's a scammer. He actually got community noted by the Twitter app. Saying, like, hey, by the way, this guy has done this before. He's. This is like his fourth time. Like, ... |
A | Right. That he usually does this, like, near cycle tops, too. It's like when things. |
B | He doesn't do it in bear markets, that's for sure. |
A | Yeah, he doesn't do it bear markets. This is a David Phelps take, which is related. This has to be the strangest era in crypto I can remember. The tech is finally ready to be used at scale, but almost nothing useful is being built. This is nearly the exact opposite of how it was in 2017 and 2021. 2017, we just discover... |
B | That's a good question. What do we have this time? Yeah, that's why all the apps that I'm using are the apps that I've been using. |
A | That's why it's a weird market cycle. This is miles making the case that, like, crypto media is suffering as well. Crypto YouTube views are disproportionately lagging. The bitcoin price. I don't know if these are his YouTube views. |
B | Oh, it's a whole bunch. So even we're in there. I thought that that's what kind of why I included in this. This is just all crypto, like, YouTube views. So, like, we're on there. Altcoin daily is here. Bitboy, crypto is there. Just, like, data dash, bunch of just, like, youtubers, crypto youtubers. Uh, and the bitcoin ... |
A | Yeah. Again, it's retail. It's not here. Uh, we don't have any tweets on this, but we could add to, like, there's. There's a feeling of too much supply. The number of tokens out there are at all time highs. There's a lot of vc unlocks that have been coming and people are like, you know, people are getting sick of the a... |
B | High FTV is getting its first unlock in like four weeks coming up soon, so, like, that's going to be fine to watch. Like, if you're a world coin investor, like, you're selling, that's what you're doing. You're up a bajillion X. |
A | Well, I don't, I don't know what it is now, but I remember seeing like a close to a hundred billion dollar market cap for this thing, at least from, sorry, not market cap, fully diluted valuation at least, which is absolutely crazy. All right, so that's the bear case. I feel like we've established that enough. David, g... |
B | Right after we talked to some of these fantastic sponsors, they make this show possible. |
A | David, I asked for hope, you give me a commercial. What's going on here, man? Well, you gotta make money. |
B | The views are down, man. The views are down. |
A | Here's some hope, maybe from Eric Eth. Once crypto Twitter is bearish, you're too late. Rest in peace. |
B | This is something that I definitely learned pretty, like, early in my, well, late in my first cycle, but, like, relatively early in my crypto career is like, if everyone around you is bearish, that's because the bearish price action has already happened. |
A | Yeah. |
B | If everyone is around you is bearish. Like, you can't sell, but you can't sell on that bearish. You can sell for whatever reason, you can sell whatever you want, but you can't sell because, like, oh, everyone's bearish. Now I'm going to sell everyone's bearish because the price went down. And so, like, everyone being b... |
A | Yeah. By the way, on this, because it's bearish, you got to focus on the, the bearish. But the inverse is also true. It's like, once crypto Twitter gets really bullish, uh, you better think about your sell plan. Like, in particular, start executing on that. |
B | Yeah, I did. I, I think I remember talking about this take, and I generally agree when there's retail here, but I think all of crypto Twitter was extremely bullish. Like the end of 2020. |
A | I'm talking drunk, stupid, exuberant, like, super cycle. |
B | That type of bullish. Yeah, we hadn't uttered the word super cycle. |
A | Yeah, I'm talking about that level of bullishness, not the kind that we see, which was like relatively tame bullishness. But anyway, so Eric says, like, you know, once people are already bearish, it's too late. There's like, don't do anything, basically. |
B | So when everyone's bullish, a tweet from miles here who says it's equally as easy to make a bull case two, and this is in response to Andrew King, who elicited, like, all the reasons to be bearish. So Michael just responds, it's easy. It's also easy to be bullish. We have the election in November, which people think is... |
A | The glass is half full. You can look at it from, from the opposite perspective as well. Let's get into some details, though, on some of these actual bear cases. Let's start with maybe Mount Gox. When you get into the details, I'm not sure how bearish it actually is. What's this tweet? |
B | So this is the take that insiders who knew that this Mount Gox disbursement announcement was coming, front ran that announcement because we know that Gox like disbursement Fud has moved the market, has frequently moved the markets in the past. And so the real one, which this is the one we got, we got the actual real on... |
A | I like how you said deploy, David. Yeah. So he's basically saying the market's reaction to this all already happened. When you saw that 8% drop on bitcoin, that was the candle down, that like just now priced all of that selling in and it's like we don't have to worry about it from here on out. |
B | Yeah. Alex Thorne, who works at Galaxy, who understands how these markets work, they do just, they do a bunch of market analysis, market structure stuff. He says that there's a chance that people are overshooting the bearishness. He says creditors have been stuck in Mount Gox bankruptcy for ten plus years. Finally, tru... |
A | Yeah. |
B | And so they could have left. |
A | Alex brought the full analysis here. I gotta say a plus one for Alex. Like, he was dead on, right? Do you remember we had him on the podcast? We were talking about the bitcoin ETF and kind of, like, flows and the analysis there, and he nailed that. Like, he totally killed it. Yeah. So, you know, in this type of case, l... |
B | Okay? That is bearish. That part is very bearish. |
A | That's very bearish for bitcoin cash. |
B | Going to zero. |
A | Oh, my God. Imagine all of that liquidity of bitcoin cash. |
B | Like, people are going to the infinite sea of liquidity for bitcoin cash is. |
A | Going to be a race to hit the sell button on that one. So maybe don't be in bitcoin cash would be some advice that holds. Okay, how about the ETF fud? Does that hold? |
B | Perhaps. I mean, we're not going to know until after the fact, but there's plenty of reasons to be bullish in addition to, like, the perceived bearishness that people are giving takes of. I mean, the real question is, like, does the ETH ETF attract a meaningful amount of capital? That's always been the question. Some p... |
A | It'S very, very tradfi. I mean, it's the freaking CME, right? So open interest all time high is. Is kind of bullish. |
B | Additionally, eth supply on centralized exchanges are at all time lows. Um, this is also. I think a lot of people are missing the fact that, like, um, this is also because exchanges are staking the ETh. So there is supply on exchanges, but they have put it away. Uh, the supply is off the order books, but it is. But eth... |
A | It's, it's crazy. All time low, too, I guess. ETh staking explains a portion of this, but probably not all of it, right? |
B | Yeah, it's definitely not all of it. |
A | Here's a retort from a DC investor, which is like, kind of like striking the balance here. He says a few things. Yeah. Some people are saying, by the way, that ethereum ETF getting launched in the summer is like Max bearish because, you know, Tradfi sell in May and then go away. It's, everyone's on summer vacations. DC... |
B | Yeah. Yeah, that's right. |
A | All right, so we talked about Gox, we talked about the ETH, ETF. What about this? Hey, there's no new use cases thing. And I mean, there's truth to that. We haven't seen any breakout use cases this cycle. Do you have a silver lining on that, David. |
B | Not like a global silver lining for the entire market. But I will say polymarket, the prediction market platform, they have open interest in all time highs in like activity. So they like, I don't know if they measure it in TVL, but just like the most amount of like gambling bets, money being placed on polymarket bets i... |
A | Yeah, I'll actually plus one that because like, you know, prediction markets were an old use case for crypto and I think like we don't need new use cases because the old use cases were pretty damn old. |
B | Yeah, we have ideas in crypto. Let's just dig some up from the grave. |
A | Exactly. Defi hasn't been fully realized. Uniswap is now doing trillions in value. Stable coins are just continuing to rise. That's going to be transformational on its own. When you look at some of the Defi blue chips like Maker and Aave collateralized lending, that's all time highs in terms of profit. |
B | Defi revenues are at all time highs in a very big way. Yeah. |
A | So the old use cases I'm actually more bullish on than some like net new thing that we haven't discovered. Let's just finish up the old use cases because like we're talking about a global financial system for the world that's, that's huge. That's absolutely massive. And we haven't been able to realize that because we'v... |
B | We will definitely take some new, take. |
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