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Speaker A: Hey, guys, welcome to Debrief. After our episode, our fourth episode with Raoul Paul, I remember in the early days, we did an episode with Raoul Paul, and that was. It felt big. It felt like a big guest for us when Bankless was just a tiny, unknown crypto podcast episode. And this was before Raoul was an ETH... |
Speaker B: ETH Bull, 80% of his portfolio. |
Speaker A: I like to feel like, David, you and I played a hand in converting him into the ETH bull that he is. He converted from bitcoin primarily to ether, he says, in 2020, and he's been pretty steadfast on that in being an ETH bull. I think we played a role in that. What do you think? |
Speaker B: Yeah, I think you can definitely watch rel portfolio expand, like, get more and more cemented over time. I think ether, as a portion of his crypto portfolio has been up only. And that trend is very, very, very strong. It's also nice to see Raul. I mean, he got it from a very early time. Like, he was one of t... |
Speaker A: Yeah, I think that's a good. That's a good take. Um, what's interesting here, too, is, uh, just as far as logistics is David and I are sharing, like, one mic, so we just throw it back to one another. And that's been fun in the episode, I think, because I didn't know when you were gonna throw it to me. And so... |
Speaker B: No, man. |
Speaker A: Yeah, but it also include, it means that neither of us can talk over the other one. Right. So it's a very sequential episode from that perspective. But, yeah, I guess on Raoul's optimism, don't you think that makes sense? Like, don't you think that that is actually, it's not just a kind of an irrationally op... |
Speaker B: Humanity or just not have exposure? Right. |
Speaker A: Just. |
Speaker B: Just be like, dollars. Like, owning dollars is inherently pessimistic thing to do. So, yeah, I think there is some sort of, like, I mean, you can. Pessimism can also be conservative, like, risk off, and you can still have invest in, like, exposure that way. But I think people that are looking for, like, gene... |
Speaker A: I mean, I don't know about that, because crypto has two kind of counter forces. There's, like, the dystopians in crypto who are, like, almost like gold bug pessimistic. Like, they're bullish on the asset class. Because they're pessimistic on the rest of society and, like, fiat and institutions. And so that i... |
Speaker B: Optimistic, but I'm pessimistic about the current state of society. But like, the bitcoiners who will say, yeah, we're like gold bugs, the archetype, but they are still optimistic about the wealth generation effect that comes from a bitcoin enabled world, would be there. Like, they think once everyone's on b... |
Speaker A: Yeah, that's true. And so I guess, from that perspective, are crypto people more pessimistic or, sorry, optimistic than regular people? I'd probably say so. I think anybody in investing skews more optimistic, and then anyone in technology skews more optimistic generally. I think technology is an optimistic f... |
Speaker B: Yeah, I cant remember when this was, but I think there was something in the weekly roll up, there was some news that if you were a reporter or a writer for the New York Times or something like this, some reporting agency like Bloomberg, you were only allowed to own bonds. Like, you basically only could have ... |
Speaker A: I guess one way to describe my own take on this is I am definitely optimistic humanity, but I am pessimistic on legacy institutions, and I am optimistic on new institutions and new organizational structures, of which I think crypto is one of the most important that we will have birthed in this century, in th... |
Speaker B: Is the optimistic thing to think. |
Speaker A: Yes, this is the optimistic thing to think. Maybe it's partially optimistic, partially pessimistic. I don't know where to put the technology's impact on inflation. And making that technology being a deflationary force is definitely optimistic, bullish technology, yet demographics, I guess demographics is nei... |
Speaker B: What was interesting to me is that Raoul Paul and Arthur Hayes diverge. And Arthur Hayes is like we're going to get inflation and it's going to be bullish. And Raoul Paul is like we're going to get deflation and it's going to be bullish. I'm like, wait, what? I don't know what to do with this. You can see th... |
Speaker A: Yeah, I agree with that. Take especially the case that the thing that matters is not so much where the debasement manifests, I guess, for the sake of kind of our bags or the crypto industry, right. It's just like whether that manifests as CPI inflation or just asset price inflation, right. This doesn't reall... |
Speaker B: Yeah. It's all timeframes, right? So it's all what? It's a matter of perspective and nuance. So there are some things about AI which are unignorable. Chat GPT is a real technology. No one's doubting that. And then there's that one company that raised like, $150 million, and they had just started hiring emplo... |
Speaker A: This thing, it's these types of things. It's less of a debate and more a matter of differences of timeframes, right? Where you guys would probably be in agreement. One other kind of timeframe question, though, as we were talking about AI that I asked Raul, and I'm not sure what I think about this, is just wh... |
Speaker B: That makes me like a normal person. Yes. |
Speaker A: So I was a normal person not paying attention to crypto Twitter for the week. And I was following this AI sub thing, and one thing I noticed, because it has some parallels with crypto Twitter is like, and I was thinking about this during our conversation with Raul, is everything that Raoul is predicting, eve... |
Speaker B: I think maybe what you're saying is the most bullish case is like, hey, what if crypto did exactly what it was designed to do and it went up and it was succeeded? And also, what if AI did exactly what it's designed to do and it made and it completely changed the landscape and it was completely successful? If... |
Speaker A: That's exactly what I'm saying. So what if we're all right? It's like the question of like, all right, so, I mean, maybe some people who are holding the assets that go up in price get really wealthy. Does that solve some of the big problems for society? What do you think about this? |
Speaker B: Well, this is a conversation that we had with Dmitry Kofinas and was the whole Wall street bets GME like paradigm for a while is like, every investor who got their $2,000 stimmy check was like, I need to hundred x leverage this, even though there's only a 2% chance that I get it. Because if I win, then I am ... |
Speaker A: These are things I worry about and are still unaddressed, I think, in general, anyway, I don't think Raoul knows anything more about that than anybody else trying to figure this out. But it certainly feels like on this voyage, it feels like there are some icebergs ahead, and one of them could be exactly that... |
Speaker B: Yeah. Yeah. It took him a full, like 5 seconds for him to like, wait, how big is this and what does this mean? And what are the consequences? Do I need to probably. Do I need to exit from this podcast and go answer some coworkers messages? Right now? I have no more in this debrief. |
Speaker A: Neither do I. It's good to record this with you in person, David. Thank you for tuning into the debrief. Thank you, bankless citizens. |
Speaker B: We appreciate. |
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