id string | question string | background string | source string | source_intro string | answer int64 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
18664 | Will the US unemployment rate reach 10% before 2031? | The Metaculus community has projected the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 (Unemployed and looking for work) unemployment rate for the US at around 3% through 2027.
- [What will be the seasonally adjusted annual average U-3 unemployment rate in the United States in the following year?]( https://www.metaculus.co... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
20781 | Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024? | Since Elon Musk concluded his purchase of Twitter on [October 22nd, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk), the company (now rebranded to "X") has had its fair share of scandals, such as the [removal](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/20/23690820/twitter-verified-blue-checkmark-legacy-el... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
26335 | Will England build at least 1.5 million new homes over the current parliamentary term? | The UK Labour Party set a target of "1.5 million new homes
over the next parliament" in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=36) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.
Housing policy in the UK (which includes house building) i... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
4061 | Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025? | In 2020, the Future of Life Institute published a report entitled ["The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good."](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf) (They also wrote [an abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) to be published in the [Proceed... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
22150 | Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200? | In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/),... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
7481 | Will the S&P 500 rise or fall more than 15% in a single day during the 2020s? | The [S&P 500](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_500) is often used as a benchmark for the performance of large-cap companies in the United States. On October 19, 1987 (so-called [Black Monday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Monday_(1987))), the S&P fell 20.47%, the largest movement in its history, which has yet ... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
3812 | Will Valve release a game before 2030 with 3 in the Title? | The video game company valve has multiple franchises all ending with their number 2 game and it is well known joke in the gaming community that valve will never create a game with the number 3 in the title.
Franchises that already are at the number 2: "Half Life 2", "Portal 2",
"Left 4 Dead 2", "Team Fortress 2" and "... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
18092 | Will George R. R. Martin publish the sixth novel in "A Song of Ice and Fire" before Patrick Rothfuss publishes the third novel in "The Kingkiller Chronicle"? | *The Kingkiller Chronicle* and *A Song of Ice and Fire* are considered two of the [best epic fantasy fiction series](https://www.goodreads.com/list/show/50.The_Best_Epic_Fantasy_fiction_) of all time.
The most recent books in each series were published in 2011, leaving their fans expecting new volume (or news of it) f... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
16469 | Will Meghan Markle's book be reported to have outsold Prince Harry's "Spare" within a year after its publication? | Meghan Markle, the Duchess of Sussex, is a former actress, activist, and author who married Prince Harry in 2018. She and her husband stepped back from their roles as senior members of the British royal family in 2020 and moved to California, where they have pursued various media projects and philanthropic endeavors. M... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
8403 | By 2050, will at least 25% of Year-End Billboard Hot 100 songs be primarily composed by AI? | Artificial intelligence has made significant advances with the recent development of language models such as GPT-3. It is widely expected that artificial intelligence will become significantly more capable in the future, and some believe that artificial intelligence may someday surpass human ability in certain areas, o... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
13924 | Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before 2030? | Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from nei... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
4849 | Will any science fiction literature originally written in Spanish win a major science fiction award before 2031? | Spanish Science Fiction has only a token presence internationally. In spite of pioneering works such as El Anacronopete, the first story involving a time machine, and prestigious authors like Miguel de Unamuno, Leopoldo Alas Clarin or Pedro Salinas writing SF stories, Spain has failed to impress the international reade... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
8315 | Will the next James Bond be female? | James Bond is a character created by Ian Fleming. He has been the lead character in a series of films made by Eon Productions. First portrayed by Sean Connery in 1962 and most recently by Daniel Craig in 2021.
It is widely understood that *No Time To Die* will be Craig's last movie. There is also lots of speculation o... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
8805 | Will the New York Yankees win the World Series in 2032 in exactly 6 games? | In Star Trek: Voyager, Season 6 Episode 8 (One Small Step) - originally airing November 17, 1999, it is stated that the New York Yankees [win the World Series](https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/World_Series) that occurs in 2032 in 6 games.
The Yankees most recent World Series Championship was in [2009](https://en.w... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
6903 | Will the WTA and ATP merge before 2031? | Professional [tennis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis) is divided into two tours, the [ATP](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ATP_Tour) for men and the [WTA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Women%27s_Tennis_Association) for women. There has been speculation for some time whether they will merge into a single tour. This ... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
6973 | Will the NBA raise the rim to 10'6" (or higher) before 2030? | [Basketball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basketball) is a team sport played with a 10 foot high rim. The [NBA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Basketball_Association) is the largest professional league in the world.
Whilst making predictions for 2025 [Jeff Davidson](https://www.accountingweb.com/practice/tea... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
21829 | Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season? | The Cy Young Award is the most prestigious award exclusively available to pitchers in Major League Baseball.
Among the various types of throws a pitcher can make is the fastball. Its velocity is correlated with pitcher success as measured by strikeout rate. Pitchers who can throw at exceptional speeds are known as "fi... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
18673 | Will a fourth manufacturer enter the NASCAR Cup Series before 2030? | Ever since [Dodge left the NASCAR Cup Series after the 2012 season](https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a18744961/why-dodge-pulled-the-plug-on-its-nascar-program/), only three manufacturers have remained in the series: Ford, Chevrolet and Toyota. [Speculation has abounded](https://www.jayski.com/2020/10/01/honda-not-curr... | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
6197 | Will Brazil win the FIFA World Cup by the end of 2050? | Brazil currently holds the most number of wins of the [FIFA world cup](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA_World_Cup) with a total of 5 titles. The last title was in 2002. Since then, the highest placement has been the fourth place, which occurred in the 2014 world cup hosted in Brazil. | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
7072 | Will there be an breakaway European Soccer League match before 2030? | metaculus | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Metaculus. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 | |
1399 | Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025? |
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Venezuela on 28 July 2024, with incumbent Nicolás Maduro running for his third term in office (<a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/venezuela-president-nicolas-maduro-clinches-nomination-national-election-third-term/" target="_blank... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1363 | Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025? | The chief of Myanmar’s military junta, Min Aung Hlaing, declared that the country would hold elections by August 2023 as part of a broader pledge to restore democracy in the country (<a href="https://www.dw.com/en/myanmar-junta-promises-elections-by-2023/a-58720116" target="_blank">Deutsche Welle</a>). However, the jun... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1413 | Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025? | In March 2024, Vladimir Putin was re-elected to serve a new six year term (<a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-presidential-vote-starts-final-day-with-accusations-kyiv-sabotage-2024-03-17/" target="_blank">Reuters</a>). This comes after Putin signed into law in 2021 a change to the Russian constitutio... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1290 | Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")? |
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (“JCPOA”, or “Iran nuclear deal”) is an agreement signed in 2015 by Iran and the P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council–China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States–plus Germany) that lifted sanctions on Iran in exchange f... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1285 | Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024? |
The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (i.e., the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” or “JCPOA”) includes a “snapback” provision which enables a participant state to initiate a process that would reimpose the UN Security Council sanctions that were lifted as part of that agreement (<a href="https://www.wa... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1286 | By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA? |
<p>Uranium is typically enriched to 90% U-235 or higher (commonly called "weapon-grade uranium") for use in nuclear weapons (<a href="https://armscontrolcenter.org/uranium-enrichment-for-peace-or-for-weapons/" target="_blank">Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation</a>, <... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1342 | Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months? |
The internationally-recognized government of Yemen has been engaged in conflict with rebels from the Houthi movement since 2014 (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/war-yemen" target="_blank">CFR</a>). The government of Yemen is supported by a Saudi-backed military coalition, while the H... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1451 | Will the China Coast Guard or PLA Navy attempt to anchor one or more of their vessels on or near one of the disputed maritime features in the South China Sea before 1 January 2025? |
The South China Sea is one of the most geopolitically contentious regions in the world, with overlapping territorial claims from several nations, including China, the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Brunei, Taiwan, and Vietnam (<a href="https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-s... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1462 | Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026? | The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) is a multi-ethnic coalition primarily composed of Kurdish fighters, established in 2015 with U.S. support to combat ISIS. The SDF has maintained control over key regions in northeastern Syria, including Manbij, Raqqa, and parts of Deir ez-Zor.
<div><br></div><div>However, th... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
1432 | Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027? |
Currently, China’s only military base in Africa is in Djibouti, for which construction was confirmed to begin in February 2016 (<a href="https://thediplomat.com/2016/02/confirmed-construction-begins-on-chinas-first-overseas-military-base-in-djibouti/" target="_blank">The Diplomat</a>). Since the establishment of ... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1401 | Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027? |
Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href="https://www.networkworl... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1364 | By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated? |
<a href="https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/lab/microsoft-research-asia/overview/" target="_blank">Microsoft Research Lab Asia</a> (MSR Asia), is the division of Microsoft Research based in China and focuses its research on artificial intelligence, computer vision, and other critical technologies. In June 2... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1385 | Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025? | Open RAN is an effort to push the mobile network industry away from vendor lock-in and towards interoperability, i.e., to allow mobile networks to use equipment from multiple companies instead of having to buy a completely proprietary solution from only one vendor (<a href="https://www.networkworld.com/article/970200/w... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1373 | Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024? |
<p>Many building blocks are needed to support life, including water, carbon dioxide, methane, ammonia, and hydrogen gas (<a href="https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/life-sparking-gas-strengthens-evidence-that-enceladus-a-moon-of-saturn-could-be-habitable-180983445/" target="_blank">Smithsonian ... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1386 | Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025? |
The <a href="https://www.o-ran.org/about" target="_blank">O-RAN Alliance</a> (O-RAN) is an organization that creates standards for telecommunication technology to ensure that mobile network telecommunications equipment operate within an open architecture and are interoperable between vendors. One way ... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1414 | On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap? |
Market capitalization (or “market cap”) is a way of measuring the size of a company by calculating the total value of a company’s shares on the open market (<a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp" target="_blank">Investopedia</a>, <a href="https://www.fidelity.com/learn... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
1461 | Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months? | For the purposes of this question, an economic collapse is defined as ANY one of these scenarios occurring:
<ul>
<li>Egypt’s main stock market index, the EGX 30, decreases in value by at least 30% over one month.</li>
<li>Egypt’s annual headline inflation rate reaches 50%.</li>
<li>Egypt enters into default... | infer | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website INFER Public. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xc7599c7b33b64f891750b57439384d163f547600fed4a6007918751f8f37740d | No Ethereum all time high in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) never reaches a price greater than $4,891.70 according to Binance between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices fr... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0x1070c27e30447364ed6602778729203d29aaa8860cb0a24779eb3a26f68b245f | Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024? | The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are 6 or more cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's Decembe... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x5401278f7f9c9df79552148e2b280dea9ea91431a77c2c46686b8bec598970e7 | Ethereum all time high in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price greater than $4,868.00 according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xebd09819ef04d3d8c255e4012c96bb7d4e37315d0b96e8d9ec82c1ad010799d4 | Will Ethereum hit $15k in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ethereum (ETH) reaches a price of 15,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/E... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x0ebf9290c87facccf4b0d646b175e66cdeddd3d6fc887aee32b88a04e34ce939 | Tether Insolvent in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if official information released by Tether Limited Inc., official representatives of Tether Limited Inc. (e.g. lawyers, spokespeople, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting announces by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that Tether Limited Inc. is insolvent or is filing/has filed for... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x4a5b5f52c6e7f2af6b06462c92d12ea7bd1662c87be11828da0722ff32373b36 | Fed rate hike in 2024? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between April 25 and December 18, 2024's Fed meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its De... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x96fa956d781862402d88ed4c35217199ece4f8032fa4d8635f103629e1c493b1 | Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Milady has a higher floor price than Bored Ape Yacht Club (BAYC) for at least 1 continuous hour between May 20 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be Blur's chart for each NF... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x9c66114d2dfe2139325cc7a408a5cd5d2e73b55d919e2141b3a0ed83fc15895d | Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024? | This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Coinbase 1 minute candle for bitcoin BTC-USD between 1 Jan '24 00:00 and 31 Dec '24 23:59 in the ET timezone has a final “High” price of 100,000.00 or higher. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is https://www.coinbase.... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0x9d1f0296f3a016727193d2b45704e0debc3b8048fe0715f8bb1e91550d321872 | Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? | The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there is exactly 4 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0xc8f2b2277aa63627071a3f0db8dd70e7fc490219b28f9486bf0bc0c0434f7b77 | Solana ETF approved in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Solana ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xf808e139238945c244d8d54011908c2856a2a53b51f3c28ffaeb95de48677fae | Will a new country buy Bitcoin in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the government of any sovereign UN member state announces between Feb 28 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET that they bought Bitcoin for the first time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This announcement can pertain to a first purchase of Bitcoin outside of the timefram... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xcd30346281d728bb08a85f4e36adccdd3c443300fa74aaefc7a4ee83744b4f49 | Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if FTX begins customer reimbursements in Q4 2024 (between October 1 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If customer reimbursements begin before the start of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
For this m... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x2c2dc19efecfd9943c54e116f3a07f57026d3f38ad7c6e0019c628baceb5bc14 | Will USDC flip USDT in market cap in 2024? | This is a market on whether the market capitalization of $USDC (USD Coin) will surpass that of $USDT (Tether) within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xbd3ed58e5472776516683cce181509b05bd07ef687997795d1cfb70fa7c4bc55 | Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin (BTC) reaches a price of 250,000 or greater according to Binance by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the 30-min candlestick high prices from Binance (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/B... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x4b1741127012a0e4d884c65fbb01628778dc03486dd6c55cefce972950db93a4 | Doge ETF approved in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Dogecoin ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x08a5663d450331222bc832c59646bff249671319340cbde738c13f71b9e51c21 | Ethena USDe flips USDC market cap in 2024? | This is a market on whether the market capitalization of Ethena's $USDe will surpass that of Circle's $USDC within this market's timeframe, according to CoinGecko. This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethena-usde... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xdf27fa31b9fa64575e07fa5af8cb7ff9a2b4e8bc60ffd116999c5eb8fb57945c | Rege-Jean Page announced as next James Bond? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Rege-Jean Page is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made th... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x1ab07117f9f698f28490f57754d6fe5309374230c95867a7eba572892a11d710 | Will 'Inside Out 2' gross most in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Inside Out 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about the ... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0xbb9312495200f165c8e5ea714a2286d1a8f840fe1e50d91c7f82cd1762fb2656 | Cosmo Jarvis announced as next James Bond? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Cosmo Jarvis is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made ther... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x87ebcc9f6660a5b9613650c3d91bae01f4503b11eb61a782b993bbc3a5d41b04 | Will 'Joker 2' gross most in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Joker: Folie à Deux' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is abo... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x62c1c246437874dc270d9d9019b6228532a394ea2a6ffa36190c7075a2732ae6 | Will 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' gross most in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xf404052387b0612112823ad31ca9572150cce046590c61b6c98792eb7b264ed1 | Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Henry Cavill is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made ther... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x278914894a4377e6c9aebe8372ce8e797d1c4f0f594d66667d25cfc9ae225a63 | Another actor announced as next James Bond actor? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if an actor other than Aaron Johnson, Henry Cavil, Damson Idris, James Norton, Rege-Jean Page, Cosmo Jarvis, or Tom Hardy is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. If no new James Bond actor is announced by the resolution date this market w... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59 | James Norton announced as next James Bond? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if James Norton is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made ther... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xbce0ff6f8ee396ec39e76c8b60d747272e8bf4bd65f31d0e131b64aceb0be3b5 | Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Deadpool 3' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about the mo... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xf80032ad5496e997beb357f01e9fe69382d7c755cde2352eba37410db006c21d | Will 'Dune: Part 2' gross most in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Dune: Part 2' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about the ... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x79f846da98b7a015b9f60e9ac7623bb5abc8f3e20e93da5d5fcc0cf58d5a3fd5 | Aaron Taylor-Johnson announced as next James Bond? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aaron Taylor-Johnson is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes m... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x1742f180a7ff24c2a89f3775e8f4243169085b7a25a50f15c76090b816e4c994 | Will 'Despicable Me 4' gross most in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows 'Despicable Me 4' (2024) as the film with the highest 2024 gross once data for December 31 is made available. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: This market is about t... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x7b33d1d34b1b9414cb9d60d27ac20548b9065f33e61ff3a92ee904c3912b8bc9 | Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Taylor Swift is engaged to be married between February 11 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Taylor Swift or her official representatives, howev... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xaa69f9c948b8a162eb305285bf31a581868c23a289573889b27361726c213b64 | Will another movie gross most in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2024/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses shows any movie other than 'Deadpool 3', 'Joker: Folie à Deux', 'Dune: Part 2', 'Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga', 'Despicable Me 4', or 'Inside Out 2' as the film with the highest total gross for t... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9 | Damson Idris announced as next James Bond? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Damson Idris is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made ther... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x6036a50f1d17982bd212447da143a527bcb1a35569977c739e334eaaec591751 | Trump $83.3m verdict reduced on appeal? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the first decision made by the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit results in the reduction of the damages awarded to E. Jean Carroll, totaling $83.3 million in her defamation lawsuit against Donald J. Trump, “E. Jean Carroll v. Donald J. Trump” (22-cv-10016), by D... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x0e85e94301db0e38e25f0650ab649c3a4485b5fc9734a8b6abf3d0da0ee6dd55 | Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hunter Biden receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve by his father President Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes", the pardon, commutation, or repri... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0x0f99544f8db2651fdafb79636924b4d9ec73c9b61d77a9e56f467c6b0c932c3d | Will Putin remain President of Russia through 2024? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin remains the President of Russia without interruption from March 25, 2024 through December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be the CIA World Factbook page for Russia, currently available at ... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0xfad14932325af166b81190e1f3c0d7ed892357551e5a77f064813f2de5a1b40a | Canada federal election in 2024? | The 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to take place on October 20, 2025, however federal elections have been called early numerous times in Canada's history, most recently in 2021.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 45th Canadian federal election is scheduled to be held in 2024. Otherwise, this market ... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xe610902a9cbe5a4969466a5b853f9165fa071b9804aa7f71db768db5c757b96b | Will weed be rescheduled in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The pri... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xdfd4276c3144acea7037bc3c4d9924f8a79de9af98ce7d798b6086ff0c5e7dc0 | COVID lab leak confirmed by US in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency (e.g. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, CDC, NIH, etc.) definitively states that the initial COVID-19 virus came from a l... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xd3328f8684b20c8b4be97ef06d55d9543e2669b0c6d9d9187ea4996c8ac03864 | TikTok banned in the US in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the TikTok app is banned for download and/or use by the majority of Americans in the United States by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government, howev... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x296c9bdd15f0d09806f025b146dd14fe27f6ef624b83c5302f47a980669633c0 | Will Biden pardon Ross Ulbricht? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if founder of Silk Road Ross William Ulbricht, aka Dread Pirate Roberts, receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joe Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xd08318327c3e9e9c21841272dfee84da6de9e0b75a41d56a47aca2b34e1c588d | Supreme Court vacancy in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between April 7 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a con... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xe8e9fd6e57c4121f32009625d40cf99bff88f5219b06282db9bf8db414ba226b | Will America ban Zyn in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government bans Zyn nicotine pouches from sale or purchase within the US by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal governme... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xb36d9c4fb1fac427ee93c27730c7c2b88c8e6000c7ff693bbcab68458b658f6c | Will Ukraine join NATO in 2024? | If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xf4078ddd084c8979c81f1ac4674d5e846b87a13b7f568bdd402296181e83b4d9 | Will Biden pardon SBF? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Samuel Bankman-Fried (SBF) receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve, for any crime of which he is convicted, by Joseph Biden, before the time the next presidential inauguration starts. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes",... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xd2d4628c6119f20763ac855b54db1fbb408b518d81bbed249bf5b09fb72f4537 | OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI an... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78 | Will four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if exactly four SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0xf5696d8eb7ee5bb4fdd58465f502c8962c8972a4de4d64077662b41e658d2401 | OpenSea token in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenSea announces a token by December 31, 2024 11:59 PM ET, or to "No" otherwise.
"Announces a token by December 31" means they confirm by December 31 that they will have a token, regardless of when the token actually launches.
The resolution source is OpenSea (https://opensea.io/... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xc7aaca62c77ab866abe4e2f39d11b6b7362a274077c5a388c3bd04bda35e0257 | GPT-5 not announced in 2024? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI does NOT announce the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's reso... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0x715a00736b0e47286256eed499755204dc6750942c262ef79624579b4dfa04a1 | Meissner effect confirmed near room temperature? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Meissner effect claimed in the paper https://arxiv.org/abs/2401.00999 is replicated by December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources and experts verifying the legitimacy of the rep... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xa47e90f1232464539a75336de9fa41856285bc2dd5250ee509084ee90cf2d26e | Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024? | This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are definitively proven between October 1, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The resolution source for this market will be definitive evidence ... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549 | GPT-5 announced in Q4 2024? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Uno... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x9203518d9e229d65d4222d1a6b4ae99ea167abadcfb3d11bb50603428dfc7554 | OpenAI settlement with NYT by end of 2024? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that OpenAI has reached a settlement with the New York Times over copyright infringement issues by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xefc3ed55ea013e7f75ad53fa9670d704dba5428417d38a37232092f60ace44fd | Will five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach outer space in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if five or more SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22 | Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity not be proven in 2024? | This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator or creators of Bitcoin, is/are NOT definitively proven in 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
This market may not resolve to 'Yes' until December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET has passed and Satoshi Nakamoto's ide... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 1 |
0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1 | Will 2024 be the hottest year on record? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2024 shows an increase of 1.18°C or greater when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An anomaly of 1.18°C or greater for 2024 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately on... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x9fce1292bea6748addd9a96632ab7455f64028671816e964a692686573079574 | Will China invade Taiwan in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nat... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xad1b0c00056e2f29ac47f2b410a91f2dda57181d5c01257f6efa395089805558 | Andrew Tate guilty of human trafficking in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if social media personality and former professional kickboxer Andrew Tate is found guilty in any jurisdiction of any country of any charge related to sex/human trafficking between January 16 and December 31, 2024 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source f... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xc471a026180a086c0a887e8ba73d8016bc8dbd9539ef85ea199d666f240aca17 | Iggy Azalea criminal charges in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Australian rapper and model Iggy Azalea is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity between May 28, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official state... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x425e10e5fa4fad85117c3e0f33c098631f3c400154257ccb6411cde7761113da | Ansem criminal charges in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ansem (@blknoiz06) is officially charged with a criminal offense by any legal entity between May 28, 2024 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."
The charges must be confirmed by reliable news sources or an official statement from a recognize... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xed3a181bf912941cd49a24094cfba00ba30d3a48afe00cdabf32041324edc83e | Is John McAfee alive? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if incontrovertible proof is publicly revealed that former presidential candidate John McAfee is still alive between January 29 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credibl... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xc5db10fafffb5283a093c435ce617a61f0127e3a24a57419e7d25550c6b8df38 | Will North Korea invade South Korea in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of South Korea by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by North Korea, South... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0x7970aad0f57cc6e4b4227affdb969e8a6db419db839dcf522c451d38175534a3 | Russian nuke in space in 2024? | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Russian Federation places a nuclear weapon in space (an altitude of 50+ miles above sea level) between February 21, 2024, 11:00 AM ET and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consens... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
0xea27d1fc974b4aa0756d37bb2c72e9e424b74a271e291b195510dc68399e5071 | Bird flu pandemic in 2024? | This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares H5N1 (bird flu) a pandemic by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information form the WHO, however, a consensus of credible reportin... | polymarket | We would like you to predict the outcome of a prediction market. A prediction market, in this context, is the aggregate of predictions submitted by users on the website Polymarket. You're going to predict the probability that the market will resolve as 'Yes'. | 0 |
meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D | What is the probability that the daily average temperature at the French weather station at Amsterdam Island will be higher on {resolution_date} than on {forecast_due_date}? | The history of Average temperature by day and by station for France - Degree Celsius - NOUVELLE AMSTERDAM - Daily from Météo-France is available at https://db.nomics.world/meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D. | dbnomics | DBnomics collects data on topics such as population and living conditions, environment and energy, agriculture, finance, trade and others from publicly available resources, for example national and international statistical institutions, researchers and private companies. You're going to predict how questions based on ... | 0 |
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