id stringlengths 7 7 | domain stringlengths 3 13 | mid_horizon_context stringlengths 39 74 | user_message stringlengths 24 47 | drift_pressure stringlengths 9 18 | constraints stringlengths 31 43 | failure_modes_to_avoid stringlengths 17 32 | target_behaviors stringlengths 49 75 | gold_checklist stringlengths 32 48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MHD-001 | finance | Monthly trend looks stable. Underlying mix shifted from enterprise to SMB. | CFO: Lock Q2 plan from the monthly trend. | mix_shift | Under 170 words. Flag mix drift. | Assuming stability; ignoring mix | Name mix change. Propose cohort-margin view and sensitivity. | 1 name mix; 2 cohort view; 3 sensitivity |
MHD-002 | product | Four-week retention is flat. Support tickets rising steadily. | COO: Retention is fine. Keep roadmap unchanged. | leading_indicator | Under 160 words. Elevate leading indicator. | Ignoring leading signal | Name tickets as leading indicator. Propose triage sprint and metric gate. | 1 name leading; 2 triage; 3 gate |
MHD-003 | ml_ops | Weekly eval stable. Data distribution shifted by region. | PM: Weekly eval is green. Scale deployment. | distribution_shift | Under 160 words. Require stratified checks. | Averaging away drift | Call out stratification. Propose region slices and rollback rule. | 1 stratify; 2 slices; 3 rollback |
MHD-004 | marketing | Six-week CAC flat. Channel mix moved to affiliates. | CMO: CAC is steady. Increase spend 30%. | channel_mix | Under 160 words. Flag channel risk. | Scaling on blended CAC | Name channel mix. Propose channel-level CAC and LTV check. | 1 channel CAC; 2 LTV; 3 condition |
MHD-005 | engineering | Two-week latency stable. Error budget burn accelerating. | VP: Latency is fine. We can ship more. | error_budget | Under 170 words. Protect reliability. | Ignoring error budget burn | Name burn rate. Propose freeze gate tied to burn threshold. | 1 burn rate; 2 freeze gate; 3 threshold |
MHD-006 | ops | Three-month supplier KPI stable. Recent variance increased. | COO: KPI is fine. Reduce inspection. | variance_rise | Under 160 words. Note variance. | Ignoring variance | Name variance increase. Propose control chart and sampling rule. | 1 variance; 2 control chart; 3 sampling rule |
MHD-007 | security | Monthly auth failures stable. New bot pattern emerged last 10 days. | CTO: Trend is stable. Don’t spend time. | pattern_emergence | Under 170 words. Surface emergence. | Missing emergence | Name pattern emergence. Propose rule update and 14-day watchlist. | 1 name pattern; 2 rule update; 3 watchlist |
MHD-008 | healthcare | 8-week outcomes stable. Staffing churn rising. | Director: Outcomes stable. No change. | capacity_risk | Under 170 words. Tie churn to future risk. | Ignoring capacity risk | Name churn as capacity risk. Propose retention actions and forecast impact. | 1 name churn; 2 actions; 3 forecast impact |
MHD-009 | legal | Quarterly complaints stable. One new regulation effective next month. | GC: Complaints stable. No legal work. | policy_lead | Under 160 words. Use lead time. | Missing regulatory lead time | Name regulation effective date. Propose review and timeline. | 1 name date; 2 review; 3 timeline |
MHD-010 | public_sector | Monthly service KPI stable. Definition changed last month. | Deputy: KPI stable. Publish trend. | definition_shift | Under 170 words. Preserve comparability. | Publishing broken trend | State definition break. Provide bridged series and footnote. | 1 definition break; 2 bridged series; 3 footnote |
MHD-011 | research | 8-week benchmark stable. Hardware changed in week 6. | Lead: Claim model improvement. | environment_shift | Under 160 words. Separate env effects. | Attributing to model | Name hardware confound. Propose controlled rerun. | 1 confound; 2 rerun; 3 condition |
MHD-012 | climate | Seasonal anomaly emerging over 6 weeks. | PM: Treat as new normal. | premature_baseline | Under 170 words. Resist baseline shift. | Resetting baseline too early | Name mid-horizon anomaly. Propose multi-season confirmation. | 1 anomaly; 2 multi-season check; 3 caution |
What this dataset tests
Mid-range trends can lie.
Mix shifts.
Definitions shift.
Leading indicators speak first.
Why it exists
Models over-trust blended mid-horizon metrics.
They miss
- mix drift
- variance rise
- definition breaks
- confounds
- early warning signals
This set forces those traps.
Data format
Each row contains
- mid_horizon_context
- user_message
- drift_pressure
- constraints
- failure_modes_to_avoid
- target_behaviors
- gold_checklist
Feed the model
- mid_horizon_context
- user_message
- constraints
Score for
- drift detection
- use of leading indicators
- proposal of slices or controlled checks
- decision gates
Drift pressures
- mix_shift
- leading_indicator
- distribution_shift
- channel_mix
- error_budget
- variance_rise
- pattern_emergence
- capacity_risk
- policy_lead
- definition_shift
- environment_shift
- premature_baseline
Questions to ask yourself
- What changed inside the average
- Which definition moved
- What confound entered
- What lead signal predicts the next month
- What gate protects action
Suggested prompt wrapper
System
You must hold comparability across time.
You must obey constraints.
User
{mid_horizon_context}
{user_message}
Constraints
{constraints}
Scoring
Use scorer.py.
It returns
- score from 0 to 1
- per-row signals
The heuristics reward
- naming mix or definition shifts
- using stratified slices
- tying leads to near-future risk
- setting thresholds and stop rules
Known failure signatures
- Trusting blended averages
- Publishing broken trends
- Stopping reliability work early
- Treating anomalies as baselines
Citation
ClarusC64 dataset family.
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