Datasets:
id stringclasses 6
values | date_window stringclasses 6
values | source_mix stringclasses 6
values | narrative_summary stringclasses 6
values | propagation_state stringclasses 5
values | price_behavior_summary stringclasses 6
values | narrative_theme stringclasses 6
values | consensus_density_score float64 0.84 0.92 | fragility_score float64 0.6 0.78 | divergence_signals stringclasses 6
values | exit_risk_window stringclasses 3
values | notes stringclasses 6
values | constraints stringclasses 1
value | gold_checklist stringclasses 1
value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MNFC-001 | 2025-01-15_to_2025-01-20 | news+social+analyst | AI dominance mentioned across all sources | high_echo;uniform_language | AI leaders parabolic; breadth narrowing | ai_dominance | 0.92 | 0.71 | breadth_narrowing;insider_selling | exit_prepare | Consensus high but fragile | Focus on narrative saturation. | theme+consensus+fragility |
MNFC-002 | 2025-02-11_to_2025-02-16 | macro_media+rates+social | soft landing widely accepted | uniform_language;policy_echo | indices stable; volatility low | soft_landing | 0.88 | 0.63 | vol_compression;credit_spread_shift | exit_watch | Complacency risk | Focus on narrative saturation. | theme+consensus+fragility |
MNFC-003 | 2025-03-05_to_2025-03-09 | sector_news+social | EV rebound narrative everywhere | high_echo;retail_participation | EV stocks topping | ev_rebound | 0.86 | 0.78 | volume_divergence;insider_sales | exit_fast | Late narrative phase | Focus on narrative saturation. | theme+consensus+fragility |
MNFC-004 | 2025-04-22_to_2025-04-25 | energy_news+social | oil shortage theme unanimous | uniform_language | oil extended rally | oil_shortage | 0.9 | 0.67 | inventory_shift;spread_divergence | exit_prepare | Consensus peaking | Focus on narrative saturation. | theme+consensus+fragility |
MNFC-005 | 2025-05-10_to_2025-05-14 | earnings_calls+news | pricing power story repeated everywhere | uniform_language;analyst_echo | retail stocks plateau | pricing_power | 0.84 | 0.6 | guidance_softening | exit_watch | Peak coherence | Focus on narrative saturation. | theme+consensus+fragility |
MNFC-006 | 2025-06-02_to_2025-06-06 | macro+social | rate cuts certainty narrative | uniform_language;policy_echo | bonds rally extended | rate_cut_certainty | 0.91 | 0.72 | yield_curve_shift;macro_divergence | exit_prepare | Consensus extreme | Focus on narrative saturation. | theme+consensus+fragility |
What this dataset tests
Whether a system can detect
when a market narrative reaches consensus saturation
and begins to destabilize.
This is late-stage narrative detection.
Required outputs
- narrative theme
- consensus density score
- fragility score
- divergence signals
- exit risk window
Exit windows
- exit_prepare
- exit_watch
- exit_fast
Constraints
Do not predict price direction.
Detect narrative saturation and fragility.
Evaluation focus
High scores require
clear narrative theme
numeric consensus score
numeric fragility score
explicit divergence signals
clear exit window label
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