clinical-stability-benchmark / stability_manifold.md
ClarusC64's picture
Create stability_manifold.md
b7a7004 verified

Stability Manifold View

The Clarus Clinical Stability Benchmark can be read as a set of local views into a shared stability manifold.

Each dataset exposes a different clinical regime.

The observable variables change across regimes, but the benchmark asks whether models can detect the same deeper question:

Is the system moving toward stability or instability?


Core Idea

A model should not only learn:

  • lactate patterns
  • glucose patterns
  • respiratory patterns
  • staffing patterns

It should learn the broader structure:

  • pressure rising
  • buffer weakening
  • coupling increasing
  • response delay widening
  • recovery margin closing

This is the hidden stability geometry the benchmark probes.


Regime Map

Stability Axis Example Dataset
Pressure load clinical-hemodynamic-collapse-v0.1
Buffer exhaustion clinical-fluid-balance-instability-v0.1
Coupling cascade clinical-organ-coupling-cascade-v0.1
Delayed response clinical-intervention-delay-failure-v0.1
Recovery window clinical-recovery-window-detection-v0.1
Compensation failure clinical-hemorrhage-compensation-collapse-v0.1
Control-loop failure clinical-autonomic-instability-v0.1
Cellular energy failure clinical-cellular-energy-instability-v0.1
Operational collapse clinical-hospital-operational-collapse-v0.1

Why This Matters

Most models can fit one dataset.

The harder question is whether they can recognize instability across regimes.

A strong model should detect similar stability geometry even when the surface variables change.

That is the purpose of the cross-regime transfer tests.


Benchmark Claim

The Clarus benchmark evaluates whether models can move from local pattern recognition toward general stability reasoning.