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Transmissibility of the Influenza Virus in the 1918 Pandemic
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| BACKGROUND: With a heightened increase in concern for an influenza pandemic we sought to better understand the 1918 Influenza pandemic, the most devastating epidemic of the previous century. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We use data from several communities in Maryland, USA as well as two ships that experienced well-... |
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Dynamics of Interacting Hotspots - II
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| In the absence of any proper clinical solution, human civilization is only left with sophisticated intervention measures to contain the spread of COVID-19. However, the existing models to estimate the intervention does not take into account the realistic connectivity of the epicentres of the pandemic. We generalise our... |
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Coevolution spreading in complex networks
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| Abstract The propagations of diseases, behaviors and information in real systems are rarely independent of each other, but they are coevolving with strong interactions. To uncover the dynamical mechanisms, the evolving spatiotemporal patterns and critical phenomena of networked coevolution spreading are extremely impor... |
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Two-pathogen model with competition on clustered networks
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| Networks provide a mathematically rich framework to represent social contacts sufficient for the transmission of disease. Social networks are often highly clustered and fail to be locally tree-like. In this paper, we study the effects of clustering on the spread of sequential strains of a pathogen using the generating ... |
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Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes
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| The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment of their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose the VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for the VP holders th... |
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Snapshot Models of Undocumented Immigration.
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| Accurately estimating the size of the undocumented immigrant population is a critical component of assessing the health and security risks of undocumented immigration to the United States. To provide one such estimate, we use data from the Mexican Migration Project (MMP), a study that includes samples of undocumented M... |
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Modeling Shock Propagation on Supply Chain Networks: A Stochastic Logistic-Type Approach
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| Supply Chains have been more and more suffering from unexpected industrial, natural events, or epidemics that might disrupt the normal flow of materials, information, and money. The recent pandemic triggered by the outbreak of the new COVID-19 has pointed out the increasing vulnerability of supply chain networks, promp... |
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Measles transmission during a large outbreak in California
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| A large measles outbreak in 2014–2015, linked to Disneyland theme parks, attracted international attention, and led to changes in California vaccine policy. We use dates of symptom onset and known epidemic links for California cases in this outbreak to estimate time-varying transmission in the outbreak, and to estimate... |
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Modeling COVID-19 Dynamics in Illinois under Nonpharmaceutical Interventions
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| We present modeling of the COVID-19 epidemic in Illinois, USA, capturing the implementation of a stay-at-home order and scenarios for its eventual release We use a non-Markovian age-of-infection model that is capable of handling long and variable time delays without changing its model topology Bayesian estimation of mo... |
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Games in the Time of COVID-19: Promoting Mechanism Design for Pandemic Response
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| Most governments employ a set of quasi-standard measures to fight COVID-19 including wearing masks, social distancing, virus testing, contact tracing, and vaccination. However, combining these measures into an efficient holistic pandemic response instrument is even more involved than anticipated. We argue that some non... |
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Construction and numerical analysis of a fuzzy non-standard computational method for the solution of an SEIQR model of COVID-19 dynamics
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| This current work presents an SEIQR model with fuzzy parameters. The use of fuzzy theory helps us to solve the problems of quantifying uncertainty in the mathematical modeling of diseases. The fuzzy reproduction number and fuzzy equilibrium points have been derived focusing on a model in a specific group of people havi... |
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Data-Driven Modeling Reveals the Impact of Stay-at-Home Orders on Human Mobility during the COVID-19 Pandemic in the U.S
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| One approach to delay the spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is to reduce human travel by imposing travel restriction policies. It is yet unclear how effective those policies are on suppressing the mobility trend due to the lack of ground truth and large-scale dataset describing human mobility during the pandem... |
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The influence of awareness campaigns on the spread of an infectious disease: a qualitative analysis of a fractional epidemic model
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| Mass-media coverage is one of the most widely used government strategies on influencing public opinion in times of crisis. Awareness campaigns are highly influential tools to expand healthy behavior practices among individuals during epidemics and pandemics. Mathematical modeling has become an important tool in analyzi... |
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Epidemic Dynamics via Wavelet Theory and Machine Learning, with Applications to Covid-19
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| We introduce the concept of epidemic-fitted wavelets which comprise, in particular, as special cases the number $I(t)$ of infectious individuals at time $t$ in classical SIR models and their derivatives. We present a novel method for modelling epidemic dynamics by a model selection method using wavelet theory and, for ... |
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A versatile web app for identifying the drivers of COVID-19 epidemics
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| BACKGROUND: No versatile web app exists that allows epidemiologists and managers around the world to comprehensively analyze the impacts of COVID-19 mitigation. The http://covid-webapp.numerusinc.com/ web app presented here fills this gap. METHODS: Our web app uses a model that explicitly identifies susceptible, contac... |
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Forecasting the outcome and estimating the epidemic model parameters from the fatality time series in COVID-19 outbreaks
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| In the absence of other tools, monitoring the effects of protective measures, including social distancing and forecasting the outcome of outbreaks is of immense interest. Real-time data is noisy and very often hampered by systematic errors in reporting. Detailed epidemic models may contain a large number of empirical p... |
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A spatial epidemic model with a moving boundary
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| We present a new mathematical model to investigate the spatial spread of an infectious disease. The model consists of a nonlinear PDE system with an unknown velocity field, defined on an epidemic domain that changes with time. The moving boundary of the domain represents the wavefront of the epidemic. We conduct an equ... |
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Aggregating human judgment probabilistic predictions of COVID-19 transmission, burden, and preventative measures
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| Aggregated human judgment forecasts for COVID-19 targets of public health importance are accurate, often outperforming computational models. Our work shows aggregated human judgment forecasts for infectious agents are timely, accurate, and adaptable, and can be used as tool to aid public health decision making during o... |
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The evolution of happiness pre and peri-COVID-19: A Markov Switching Dynamic Regression Model
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| Happiness levels often fluctuate from one day to the next, and an exogenous shock such as a pandemic can likely disrupt pre-existing happiness dynamics. This paper fits a Marko Switching Dynamic Regression Model (MSDR) to better understand the dynamic patterns of happiness levels before and during a pandemic. The estim... |
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Data-driven contact structures: From homogeneous mixing to multilayer networks
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| The modeling of the spreading of communicable diseases has experienced significant advances in the last two decades or so This has been possible due to the proliferation of data and the development of new methods to gather, mine and analyze it A key role has also been played by the latest advances in new disciplines li... |
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Two-stage algorithms for visually exploring spatio-temporal clustering of avian influenza virus outbreaks in poultry farms
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| The development of visual tools for the timely identification of spatio-temporal clusters will assist in implementing control measures to prevent further damage. From January 2015 to June 2020, a total number of 1463 avian influenza outbreak farms were detected in Taiwan and further confirmed to be affected by highly p... |
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COMOKIT: A Modeling Kit to Understand, Analyze, and Compare the Impacts of Mitigation Policies Against the COVID-19 Epidemic at the Scale of a City
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| Since its emergence in China, the COVID-19 pandemic has spread rapidly around the world. Faced with this unknown disease, public health authorities were forced to experiment, in a short period of time, with various combinations of interventions at different scales. However, as the pandemic progresses, there is an urgen... |
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Estimation of Human Mobility Patterns for Forecasting the Early Spread of Disease
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| Human mobility data are indispensable in modeling large-scale epidemics, especially in predicting the spatial spread of diseases and in evaluating spatial heterogeneity intervention strategies. However, statistical data that can accurately describe large-scale population migration are often difficult to obtain. We prop... |
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Delay-robust Estimation of the Reproduction Number and Comparative Evaluation on Generated Synthetic Data
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| The reproduction number is an indicator of the evolution of an epidemic.Consequently, accurate estimators for this number are essential for decision making in politics. Many estimators use filtered data as input to compensate for fluctuations of reported cases. However, for daily-based estimations, this filtering leads... |
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A vigorous study of fractional order COVID-19 model via ABC derivatives
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| The newly arose irresistible sickness known as the Covid illness (COVID-19), is a highly infectious viral disease. This disease caused millions of tainted cases internationally and still represent a disturbing circumstance for the human lives. As of late, numerous mathematical compartmental models have been considered ... |
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Simulation of Covid-19 epidemic evolution: are compartmental models really predictive?
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| Computational models for the simulation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic evolution would be extremely useful to support authorities in designing healthcare policies and lockdown measures to contain its impact on public health and economy. In Italy, the devised forecasts have ... |
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On the Supervision of a Saturated SIR Epidemic Model with Four Joint Control Actions for a Drastic Reduction in the Infection and the Susceptibility through Time
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| This paper presents and studies a new epidemic SIR (Susceptible–Infectious–Recovered) model with susceptible recruitment and eventual joint vaccination efforts for both newborn and susceptible individuals. Furthermore, saturation effects in the infection incidence terms are eventually assumed for both the infectious an... |
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Intervention of population health management innovation on economy based on cognitive computing
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| With the emergence of Delta strains in many regions of China, population health issues have aroused great concern in many industries. Therefore, it is necessary to intervene in population health management through a variety of means. This paper establishes an economic intervention model of cognitive computing to evalua... |
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Health Interventions in a Poor Region and Resilience in the Presence of a Pandemic
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| We focus on a poor region and study the nexuses between health interventions undertaken by a regional authority (RA) and this region’s Holling resilience in the presence of a pandemic such as Covid-19. First, we show how a health intervention by the RA probabilistically affects an appropriately defined health indicator... |
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The spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico: A diffusional approach
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| In this work, we analyze the spreading of Covid-19 in Mexico using the spatial SEIRD epidemiologic model. We use the information of the 32 regions (States) that conform the country, such as population density, verified infected cases, and deaths in each State. We extend the SEIRD compartmental epidemiologic with diffus... |
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Modeling third waves of Covid-19 spread with piecewise differential and integral operators: Turkey, Spain and Czechia
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| Several collected data representing the spread of some infectious disease have demonstrated that the spread does not really exhibit homogeneous spread. Clear examples can include the spread of Spanish flu and Covid-19. Collected data depicting numbers of daily new infections in the case of Covid-19 from countries like ... |
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Essential epidemiological mechanisms underpinning the transmission dynamics of seasonal influenza
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| Seasonal influenza has considerable impact around the world, both economically and in mortality among risk groups, but there is considerable uncertainty as to the essential mechanisms and their parametrization. In this paper, we identify a number of characteristic features of influenza incidence time series in temperat... |
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Simulating a Hockey Hub COVID-19 Mass Vaccination Facility
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| Mass vaccination is proving to be the most effective method of disease control, and several methods have been developed for the operation of mass vaccination clinics to administer vaccines safely and quickly. One such method is known as the hockey hub model, a relatively new method that involves isolating vaccine recip... |
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Novel approach for Monte Carlo simulation of the new COVID-19 spread dynamics
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| A Monte Carlo simulation in a novel approach is used for studying the problem of the outbreak and spread dynamics of the new COVID-19 pandemic in this work. In particular, our goal was to generate epidemiological data based on natural mechanism of transmission of this disease assuming random interactions of a large-fin... |
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Use of fuzzy sets, aggregation operators and multi agent systems to simulate COVID-19 transmission in a context of absence of barrier gestures and social distancing: Application to an island region
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| In this paper, we present a model of Covid-19 pandemic spreading simulated by a multi-agent system and using fuzzy sets This paper focuses on two risk factors: age and body mass index By using real data of people from French West Indies, we model the rate of risky population could be critical cases, if neither social d... |
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Monitoring and forecasting the SARS-Covid-19 pandemic in France
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| Over the past year, many countries have resorted multiple times to drastic social restrictions to prevent saturation of their health care system, and to regain control over an otherwise exponentially increasing SARS-Covid-19 pandemic evolution. With the advent of data-sharing, computational approaches have gained a key... |
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Superspreading in the COVID-19 Epidemic Due to the Autointerference of Viruses
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| It has been shown that autointerference of viruses limiting their replication leads to the emergenceof a new stable asymptomatic state of the infected organism. This state gives viruses the ability tosuperspread and make a main contribution to the epidemic. We assume this to be responsible forthe superspreading in the ... |
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Looking into mobility in the Covid-19 ‘eye of the storm’: Simulating virus spread and urban resilience in the Wuhan city region travel flow network
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| Recent urban and regional studies have focused on identifying positive spillover effects from intensifying flows of people in city region networks. However, potential negative spillover effects have lacked attention. The article addresses this research gap focusing on the negative spillover effects represented by Covid... |
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Optimizing spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccine by agent-based spatiotemporal simulations
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| Abstract Optimizing allocation of vaccine, a highly scarce resource, is an urgent and critical issue during fightting against on-going COVID-19 epidemic Prior studies suggested that vaccine should be prioritized by age and risk groups, but few of them have considered the spatial prioritization strategy This study aims ... |
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Analysis of exact solution of stochastic sex-structured HIV/AIDS epidemic model with effect of screening of infectives
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| The world of uncertainty motivates the study of stochastic perturbation in the mathematical models of real life. The main objective of this paper is to study stochastic sex-structured HIV/AIDS epidemic model with effect of screening of infectives. We have shown that the proposed stochastic epidemic model with boundedne... |
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Building A Bayesian Decision Support System for Evaluating COVID-19 Countermeasure Strategies
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| Decision making in the face of a disaster requires the consideration of several complex factors. In such cases, Bayesian multi-criteria decision analysis provides a framework for decision making. In this paper, we present how to construct a multi-attribute decision support system for choosing between countermeasure str... |
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Simulation Platforms to Support Teaching and Research in Epidemiological Dynamics
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| An understanding of epidemiological dynamics, once confined to mathematical epidemiologists and applied mathematicians, can be disseminated to a non-mathematical community of health care professionals and applied biologists through simple-to-use simulation applications. We used Numerus Model Builder RAMP (Runtime Alter... |
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Migration rate estimation in an epidemic network
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| Most of the recent epidemic outbreaks in the world have as a trigger, a strong migratory component as has been evident in the recent Covid-19 pandemic. In this work we address the problem of migration of human populations and its effect on pathogen reinfections in the case of Dengue, using a Markov-chain susceptible-in... |
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Understanding components of mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic
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| Travel restrictions have proven to be an effective strategy to control the spread of the COVID-19 epidemics, in part because they help delay disease propagation across territories. The question, however, as to how different types of travel behaviour, from commuting to holiday-related travel, contribute to the spread of... |
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The Basic Reproduction Number as a Loop Gain Matrix
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| The COVID-19 pandemic and the disordered reactions of most governments made the importance of mathematical modelling and model-based predictions evident, even outside the scientific community. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] quickly entered the common jargon, as a concise but effective tool to communi... |
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Behavior of susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered epidemics with diversity in the infection rate of the individuals
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| We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the heterogeneity in infection rate can either impede or accelerate the epidemic spr... |
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Capping Mobility to Control COVID-19: A Collision-based Infectious Disease Transmission Model
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| We developed a mobility-informed disease-transmission model for COVID-19, inspired by collision theory in gas-phase chemistry. This simple kinetic model leads to a closed-form infectious population as a function of time and cumulative mobility. This model uses fatality data from Johns Hopkins to infer the infectious po... |
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Challenges in estimating virus divergence times in short epidemic timescales with special reference to the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
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| The estimation of evolutionary parameters provides essential information for designing public health policies. In short time intervals, however, nucleotide substitutions are ineffective to record all complexities of virus population dynamics. In this sense, the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic poses a challenge for evolutio... |
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Microstructures and dynamic processes within the five-phase system: regarding COVID-19 as a complex system
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| The research uses the development of COVID-19 in the human body as an example to explore the microstructures and dynamic processes of a concise complex system from the lens of the five-phase system. Based on the structural balance theory and system dynamics, the research finds that transitive triads and cyclic triads i... |
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Epidemics and electricity CO(2) emissions: a feedback investigation
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| We examine the short-term and long-term causal effects between epidemics and electricity CO(2) emissions by using panel data from 30 countries over the period of 1990 to 2017. The results show that there is bidirectional relationship between epidemics and electricity CO(2) emissions, especially in OECD and Asian countr... |
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On the probability of strain invasion in endemic settings: accounting for individual heterogeneity and control in multi-strain dynamics
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| The rise of antimicrobial drug resistance is an imminent threat to global health that has warranted, and duly received, considerable attention within the medical, microbiological and modelling communities. Outbreaks of drug-resistant pathogens are ignited by the emergence and transmission of mutant variants descended f... |
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Using real-time data to guide decision-making during an influenza pandemic: a modelling analysis
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| Influenza pandemics typically occur in multiple waves of infection, often associated with initial emergence of a novel virus, followed (in temperate regions) by a later resurgence accompanying the onset of the annual influenza season. Here, we examined whether data collected from an initial pandemic wave could be infor... |
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Global stability analysis for a generalized delayed SIR model with vaccination and treatment
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| In this work, we investigate the stability of an SIR epidemic model with a generalized nonlinear incidence rate and distributed delay. The model also includes vaccination term and general treatment function, which are the two principal control measurements to reduce the disease burden. Using the Lyapunov functions, we ... |
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Estimating Unknown Time-Varying Parameters in Uncertain Differential Equation
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| Uncertain differential equations have a wide range of applications. How to obtain estimated values of unknown parameters in uncertain differential equations through observations has always been a subject of concern and research, many methods have been developed to estimate unknown parameters. However, these parameters ... |
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Successful contact tracing systems for COVID-19 rely on effective quarantine and isolation
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| Background. Test, trace and isolate are the three crucial components of the response to COVID-19 identified by the World Health Organisation. Mathematical models of contact tracing often over-simplify the ability of traced contacts to quarantine or isolate. Method. We use an age-structured branching process model of in... |
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A model for social spreading of Covid-19: Cases of Mexico, Finland and Iceland
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| The shocking severity of the Covid-19 pandemic has woken up an unprecedented interest and accelerated effort of the scientific community to model and forecast epidemic spreading to find ways to control it regionally and between regions. Here we present a model that in addition to describing the dynamics of epidemic spr... |
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Verification Results for Age-Structured Models of Economic-Epidemics Dynamics
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| In this paper we propose a macro-dynamic age-structured set-up for the analysis of epidemics/economic dynamics in continuous time. The resulting optimal control problem is reformulated in an infinite dimensional Hilbert space framework where we perform the basic steps of dynamic programming approach. Our main result is... |
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A spatio-temporal model based on discrete latent variables for the analysis of COVID-19 incidence
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| We propose a model based on discrete latent variables, which are spatially associated and time specific, for the analysis of incident cases of SARS-CoV-2 infections. We assume that for each area the sequence of latent variables across time follows a Markov chain with initial and transition probabilities that also depen... |
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A discrete-time-evolution model to forecast progress of Covid-19 outbreak
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| Here we present a discrete-time-evolution model with one day interval to forecast the propagation of Covid-19. The proposed model can be easily implemented with daily updated data sets of the pandemic publicly available by distinct online sources. It has only two adjustable parameters and it predicts the evolution of t... |
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The non-pharmaceutical interventions may affect the advantage in transmission of mutated variants during epidemics: A conceptual model for COVID-19
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| As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, genetic mutations in SARS-CoV-2 emerge, and some of them are found more contagious than the previously identified strains, acting as the major mechanism for many large-scale epidemics. The transmission advantage of mutated variants is widely believed as an innate biological feature t... |
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Interaction-Temporal GCN: A Hybrid Deep Framework For Covid-19 Pandemic Analysis
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| The Covid-19 pandemic is still spreading around the world and seriously imperils humankind's health This swift spread has caused the public to panic and look to scientists for answers Fortunately, these scientists already have a wealth of data—the Covid-19 reports that each country releases, reports with valuable spati... |
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Disease-dependent interaction policies to support health and economic outcomes during the COVID-19 epidemic
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| Lockdowns and stay-at-home orders have partially mitigated the spread of Covid-19. However, en masse mitigation has come with substantial socioeconomic costs. In this paper we demonstrate how individualized policies based on disease status can reduce transmission risk while minimizing impacts on economic outcomes. We d... |
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The local stability of a modified multi-strain SIR model for emerging viral strains
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| We study a novel multi-strain SIR epidemic model with selective immunity by vaccination. A newer strain is made to emerge in the population when a preexisting strain has reached equilbrium. We assume that this newer strain does not exhibit cross-immunity with the original strain, hence those who are vaccinated and reco... |
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Simple mathematical modelling approaches to assessing the transmission risk of SARS-CoV-2 at gatherings
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| Background: Gatherings may contribute significantly to the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) For this reason, public health interventions have sought to constrain unrepeated or recurrent gatherings to curb the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic Unfortunately, the range of ... |
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Homophily impacts the success of vaccine roll-outs
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| Physical contacts do not occur randomly, rather, individuals with similar socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics are more likely to interact among them, a phenomenon known as homophily. Concurrently, the same characteristics correlate with the adoption of prophylactic tools. As a result, the latter do not unf... |
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Reconstructing propagation networks with natural diversity and identifying hidden sources
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| Our ability to uncover complex network structure and dynamics from data is fundamental to understanding and controlling collective dynamics in complex systems. Despite recent progress in this area, reconstructing networks with stochastic dynamical processes from limited time series remains to be an outstanding problem.... |
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Model predictive control for optimal social distancing in a type SIR-switched model
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| Social distancing strategies have been adopted by governments to manage the COVID-19 pandemic, since the first outbreak began. However, further epidemic waves keep out the return of economic and social activities to their standard levels of intensity. Social distancing interventions based on control theory are needed t... |
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Modeling epidemics through ladder operators
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| We propose a simple model of spreading of some infection in an originally healthy population which is different from other models existing in the literature. In particular, we use an operator technique which allows us to describe in a natural way the possible interactions between healthy and un-healthy populations, and... |
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Simulating infection transmission: A case study of COVID-19
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| Nowadays, one of the top priorities for public health is estimating the effectiveness of protective measures to mitigate the COVID-19 epidemic A promising way to explore various protective measures and to estimate the potential benefits and costs of a variety of options is to use computer modeling In this paper, we int... |
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Infectious disease phylodynamics with occurrence data
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| Abstract 1: Phylodynamic models use pathogen genome sequence data to infer epidemiological dynamics With the increasing genomic surveillance of pathogens, especially during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, new practical questions about their use are emerging 2: One such question focuses on the inclusion of un-sequenced case oc... |
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Construction of an evacuee placement model for tsunami shelters considering physical distancing to prevent COVID-19 infection
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| Earthquakes and tsunamis are expected to occur within the next 30 years along Japan's Nankai Trough. Existing disaster prevention plans and calculated evacuation capacities in the coastal areas that would be affected do not account for physical distancing in the context of COVID-19. Therefore, we developed a tsunami ev... |
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A dynamic physical-distancing model to evaluate spatial measures for prevention of covid-19 spread()
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| Motivated by the global pandemic of COVID-19, this study investigates the spatial factors influencing physical distancing, and how these affect the transmission of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, by integrating pedestrian dynamics with a modified susceptible–exposed–infectious model. Contacts between infected and susceptible ped... |
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Simulating phase transitions and control measures for network epidemics caused by infections with presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages
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| We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulation... |
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Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and epidemiological parameters with uncertainty from serological surveys
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| Establishing how many people have been infected by SARS-CoV-2 remains an urgent priority for controlling the COVID-19 pandemic. Serological tests that identify past infection can be used to estimate cumulative incidence, but the relative accuracy and robustness of various sampling strategies have been unclear. We devel... |
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On the Impact of Vaccination Campaigns and Social Distancing in the Control of the Novel Coronavirus Outbreaks
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| The continuous spread of "SARS-COV-2" around the globe, push the governments to start vaccination campaigns by approving several vaccines under the emergency procedure. However, the shortage of vaccines supplies slowed down the vaccination campaigns in most countries. In this paper we performed a 'SELIAAvHRD' model con... |
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Contagion dynamics on adaptive multiplex networks with awareness-dependent rewiring
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| In this article we develop a highly integrated effective degree approach to modeling epidemic and awareness spreading processes on multiplex networks coupled with awareness-dependent adaptive rewiring. This approach keeps track of the number of nearest neighbors in each state of an individual; consequently, it allows f... |
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Plateaus, rebounds and the effects of individual behaviours in epidemics
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| Plateaus and rebounds of various epidemiological indicators are widely reported in Covid-19 pandemics studies but have not been explained so far. Here, we address this problem and explain the appearance of these patterns. We start with an empirical study of an original dataset obtained from highly precise measurements ... |
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A multilayer network model of Covid-19: implications in public health policy in Costa Rica
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| Successful partnerships between researchers, experts and public health authorities has been critical to navigate the challenges of the Covid-19 pandemic worldwide. In Costa Rica, we constructed a multilayer network model that incorporates a diverse contact structure for each individual (node). The different layers whic... |
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Epidemic spreading in an expanded parameter space: the supercritical scaling laws and subcritical metastable phases
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| While the mathematical laws of uncontrolled epidemic spreading are well known, the statistical physics of coronavirus epidemics with containment measures is currently lacking. The modelling of available data of the first wave of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 over 230 days, in different countries representative of diffe... |
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Study of lockdown/testing mitigation strategies on stochastic SIR model and its comparison with South Korea, Germany and New York data
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| We are currently facing a highly critical case of a world-wide pandemic. The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2, a.k.a. COVID-19) has proved to be extremely contagious and the original outbreak from Asia has now spread to all continents. This situation will fruitfully profit from the study in regards of the spread of the vi... |
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The long term predictions from Imperial College CovidSim Report 9
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| We present calculations using the CovidSim code which implements the Imperial College individual-based model of the COVID epidemic. Using the parameterization assumed in March 2020, we reproduce the predictions presented to inform UK government policy in March 2020. We find that CovidSim would have given a good forecas... |
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Forecasting hospital demand in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 pandemic and estimates of lockdown-induced 2nd waves
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| We present a forecasting model aim to predict hospital occupancy in metropolitan areas during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Our SEIRD type model features asymptomatic and symptomatic infections with detailed hospital dynamics. We model explicitly branching probabilities and non-exponential residence times in each late... |
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Stability of HTLV/HIV dual infection model with mitosis and latency.
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| In this paper, we formulate and analyze an HTLV/HIV dual infection model taking into consideration the response of Cytotoxic T lymphocytes (CTLs). The model includes eight compartments, uninfected CD4+T cells, latent HIV-infected cells, active HIV-infected cells, free HIV particles, HIV-specific CTLs, latent HTLV-infec... |
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Prediction of evolution of the second wave of Covid-19 pandemic in Italy
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| A relevant problem in the study of the Covid-19 pandemic is the study of its temporal evolution. Such evolution depends on a number of factors, among which the average rate of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals, the duration of infectiousness and the transmissibility, that is the probability of infec... |
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An SEIR Infectious Disease Model with Testing and Conditional Quarantine
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| We extend the baseline Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) infectious disease epidemiology model to understand the role of testing and case-dependent quarantine. Our model nests the SEIR model. During a period of asymptomatic infection, testing can reveal infection that otherwise would only be revealed late... |
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A reaction-diffusion system with cross-diffusion: Lie symmetry, exact solutions and their applications in the pandemic modeling
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| A nonlinear reaction-diffusion system with cross-diffusion describing the COVID-19 outbreak is studied using the Lie symmetry method. A complete Lie symmetry classification is derived and it is shown that the system with correctly-specified parameters admits highly nontrivial Lie symmetry operators, which do not occur ... |
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Drawing transmission graphs for COVID-19 in the perspective of network science
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| When we consider a probability distribution about how many COVID-19-infected people will transmit the disease, two points become important. First, there could be super-spreaders in these distributions/networks and second, the Pareto principle could be valid in these distributions/networks regarding estimation that 20% ... |
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Agent-based Dynamics of a SPAHR Opioid Model on Social Network Structures
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| Addiction epidemiology has been an active area of mathematical research in recent years. However, the social and mental processes involved in substance use disorders versus contraction of a pathogenic disease have presented challenges to advancing the epidemiological theory of substance abuse, especially within the con... |
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System inference for the spatio-temporal evolution of infectious diseases: Michigan in the time of COVID-19
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| We extend the classical SIR model of infectious disease spread to account for time dependence in the parameters, which also include diffusivities. The temporal dependence accounts for the changing characteristics of testing, quarantine and treatment protocols, while diffusivity incorporates a mobile population. This mo... |
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Epidemic Progression and Vaccination in a Heterogeneous Population. Application to the Covid-19 epidemic
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| The paper is devoted to a compartmental epidemiological model of infection progression in a heterogeneous population which consists of two groups with high disease transmission (HT) and low disease transmission (LT) potentials Final size and duration of epidemic, the total and current maximal number of infected individ... |
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Pandemic Risk Management using Engineering Safety Principles
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| The containment of infectious diseases is challenging due to complex transmutation in the biological system, intricate global interactions, intense mobility, and multiple transmission modes. An emergent disease has the potential to turn into a pandemic impacting millions of people with loss of life, mental health, and ... |
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Intermittent demand forecasting for medical consumables with short life cycle using a dynamic neural network during the COVID-19 epidemic
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| Accurate demand forecasting is always critical to supply chain management. However, many uncertain factors in the market make this issue a huge challenge. Especially during the current COVID-19 outbreak, the shortage of certain types of medical consumables has become a global problem. The intermittent demand forecast o... |
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Evolution of an asymptomatic first stage of infection in a heterogeneous population.
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| Pathogens evolve different life-history strategies, which depend in part on differences in their host populations. A central feature of hosts is their population structure (e.g. spatial). Additionally, hosts themselves can exhibit different degrees of symptoms when newly infected; this latency is a key life-history pro... |
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Calibrated Intervention and Containment of the COVID-19 Pandemic
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| COVID-19 has infected more than 823,000 people globally and resulted in over 40,000 deaths as of April 1, 2020. Swift government response to contain the outbreak requires accurate and continuous census of the infected population, particularly with regards to viral carriers without severe symptoms. We take on this task ... |
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Robust lock-down optimization for COVID-19 policy guidance
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| As the COVID-19 outbreak continues to pose a serious worldwide threat, numerous governments choose to establish lock-downs in order to reduce disease transmission. However, imposing the strictest possible lock-down at all times has dire economic consequences, especially in areas with widespread poverty. In fact, many c... |
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Control of COVID-19 Pandemic: Vaccination Strategies Simulation under Probabilistic Node-Level Model
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| This paper aims at constructing a probabilistic node-level time-dependent contagious disease spreading model for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic which is called SEINRVseinr by introducing exposed and asymptomatic infectious state, imperfect vaccination, reinfected possibility and weighted undirected graph for s... |
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Effect of different resumption strategies to flatten the potential COVID-19 outbreaks amid society reopens: a modeling study
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| The effect of the COVID-19 outbreak has led policymakers around the world to attempt transmission control. However, lockdown and shutdown interventions have caused new social problems and designating policy resumption for infection control when reopening society remains a crucial issue. We investigated the effects of d... |
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Neural Control for Epidemic Model of Covid-19 with a Complex Network Approach
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| This paper presents the mathematical model Susceptible-Infected-Recovered SIR with parameters that describe the COVID-19 dynamics. This model is based on a system of ordinary differential equations in which appropriate conditions and starting parameter values such as transmission rates and recovery rates are considered... |
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Using Agent-Based Modelling to Understand Advantageous Behaviours Against COVID-19 Transmission in the Built Environment
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| The global Covid-19 pandemic has raised many questions about how we occupy and move in the built environment. Interior environments have been increasingly discussed in numerous studies highlighting how interior spaces play a key role in the spread of pandemics. One societal challenge is to find short-term strategies to... |
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Characterization of SARS-CoV-2 Dynamics in the Host
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| While many epidemiological models were proposed to understand and handle COVID-19, too little has been invested to understand human viral replication and the potential use of novel antivirals to tackle the infection. In this work, using a control theoretical approach, validated mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 in huma... |
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