[
  {
    "match_id": "Dortmund_vs_PSG_2024-05-07",
    "home_team": "Dortmund",
    "away_team": "PSG",
    "date": "2024-05-07",
    "stage": "Semi-final 2nd leg",
    "first_leg": "PSG 0-1 Dortmund",
    "actual_score": "1-0",
    "actual_result": "home_win",
    "odds": {"home": 4.33, "draw": 4.00, "away": 1.80},
    "implied_prob": {"home": 0.23, "draw": 0.25, "away": 0.56},
    "stats": {
      "home": {
        "team": "Dortmund",
        "xg_last5": 1.52,
        "xga_last5": 1.28,
        "ppda": 10.2,
        "possession_pct": 46,
        "form": "WWLWW",
        "goals_scored_last5": 9,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 5
      },
      "away": {
        "team": "PSG",
        "xg_last5": 2.14,
        "xga_last5": 0.72,
        "ppda": 9.6,
        "possession_pct": 58,
        "form": "WWWWL",
        "goals_scored_last5": 12,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 3
      }
    },
    "narrative": "PSG heavily favored to overturn 1st-leg deficit at home but Dortmund's compact defensive shape and rapid transitions from their recent knockout run suggested resilience the market underpriced."
  },
  {
    "match_id": "Dortmund_vs_Atletico_Madrid_2024-04-16",
    "home_team": "Dortmund",
    "away_team": "Atletico Madrid",
    "date": "2024-04-16",
    "stage": "Quarter-final 2nd leg",
    "first_leg": "Atletico Madrid 2-1 Dortmund",
    "actual_score": "4-2",
    "actual_result": "home_win",
    "odds": {"home": 2.50, "draw": 3.60, "away": 2.75},
    "implied_prob": {"home": 0.40, "draw": 0.28, "away": 0.36},
    "stats": {
      "home": {
        "team": "Dortmund",
        "xg_last5": 1.68,
        "xga_last5": 1.34,
        "ppda": 9.8,
        "possession_pct": 48,
        "form": "WLWDW",
        "goals_scored_last5": 10,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 6
      },
      "away": {
        "team": "Atletico Madrid",
        "xg_last5": 1.44,
        "xga_last5": 0.96,
        "ppda": 12.8,
        "possession_pct": 52,
        "form": "DWWWW",
        "goals_scored_last5": 7,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 4
      }
    },
    "narrative": "Atletico held 1st-leg advantage and were favored on aggregate. Dortmund's explosive transition speed and Signal Iduna Park atmosphere fueled a 4-2 comeback the market didn't fully price in."
  },
  {
    "match_id": "PSG_vs_Barcelona_2024-04-16",
    "home_team": "PSG",
    "away_team": "Barcelona",
    "date": "2024-04-16",
    "stage": "Quarter-final 2nd leg",
    "first_leg": "Barcelona 3-2 PSG",
    "actual_score": "4-1",
    "actual_result": "home_win",
    "odds": {"home": 2.10, "draw": 3.80, "away": 3.40},
    "implied_prob": {"home": 0.48, "draw": 0.26, "away": 0.29},
    "stats": {
      "home": {
        "team": "PSG",
        "xg_last5": 2.06,
        "xga_last5": 0.88,
        "ppda": 9.4,
        "possession_pct": 56,
        "form": "WWWDW",
        "goals_scored_last5": 11,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 5
      },
      "away": {
        "team": "Barcelona",
        "xg_last5": 1.82,
        "xga_last5": 1.22,
        "ppda": 10.8,
        "possession_pct": 60,
        "form": "WWLWW",
        "goals_scored_last5": 9,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 6
      }
    },
    "narrative": "Barcelona had 1st-leg advantage and high possession but PSG's aggressive pressing intensity and Dembele's pace on transitions created a 4-1 demolition the aggregate market didn't reflect."
  },
  {
    "match_id": "Man_City_vs_Real_Madrid_2024-04-17",
    "home_team": "Man City",
    "away_team": "Real Madrid",
    "date": "2024-04-17",
    "stage": "Quarter-final 2nd leg",
    "first_leg": "Real Madrid 3-3 Man City",
    "actual_score": "1-1 (Real Madrid won on penalties)",
    "actual_result": "draw",
    "odds": {"home": 1.83, "draw": 4.00, "away": 4.33},
    "implied_prob": {"home": 0.55, "draw": 0.25, "away": 0.23},
    "stats": {
      "home": {
        "team": "Man City",
        "xg_last5": 2.24,
        "xga_last5": 0.86,
        "ppda": 8.2,
        "possession_pct": 64,
        "form": "WWWWW",
        "goals_scored_last5": 13,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 4
      },
      "away": {
        "team": "Real Madrid",
        "xg_last5": 1.76,
        "xga_last5": 1.08,
        "ppda": 11.6,
        "possession_pct": 52,
        "form": "WDWWW",
        "goals_scored_last5": 10,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 5
      }
    },
    "narrative": "Man City dominant favorites at home but Real Madrid's low-block + lethal transitions and penalty-shootout composure saw them through. City's high line was vulnerable to counter-attacks the market discounted."
  },
  {
    "match_id": "Atletico_Madrid_vs_Inter_Milan_2024-03-13",
    "home_team": "Atletico Madrid",
    "away_team": "Inter Milan",
    "date": "2024-03-13",
    "stage": "Round of 16 2nd leg",
    "first_leg": "Inter Milan 1-0 Atletico Madrid",
    "actual_score": "2-1",
    "actual_result": "home_win",
    "odds": {"home": 2.20, "draw": 3.30, "away": 3.40},
    "implied_prob": {"home": 0.45, "draw": 0.30, "away": 0.29},
    "stats": {
      "home": {
        "team": "Atletico Madrid",
        "xg_last5": 1.56,
        "xga_last5": 0.92,
        "ppda": 11.4,
        "possession_pct": 50,
        "form": "WWDWL",
        "goals_scored_last5": 8,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 5
      },
      "away": {
        "team": "Inter Milan",
        "xg_last5": 1.88,
        "xga_last5": 0.78,
        "ppda": 10.2,
        "possession_pct": 54,
        "form": "WWWWD",
        "goals_scored_last5": 10,
        "goals_conceded_last5": 3
      }
    },
    "narrative": "Inter led on aggregate and had the best defensive record in Serie A. Atletico's high-energy pressing at home disrupted Inter's build-up play, creating chaos the market underestimated."
  }
]