""" EmoDebt: Bayesian-Optimized Emotional Intelligence for Debt Recovery Hugging Face Space Demo β€” Interactive visualization of the EmoDebt framework Paper: https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.21080 Accepted at AAMAS 2026 """ import gradio as gr import numpy as np import matplotlib matplotlib.use('Agg') import matplotlib.pyplot as plt import seaborn as sns from scipy.stats import dirichlet from sklearn.gaussian_process import GaussianProcessRegressor from sklearn.gaussian_process.kernels import Matern, ConstantKernel as C from scipy.stats import norm import json import io # ============================================================================ # EMOTION DEFINITIONS (from paper Section 3.2) # ============================================================================ EMOTIONS = ['Happy', 'Surprise', 'Angry', 'Sad', 'Disgust', 'Fear', 'Neutral'] N_EMOTIONS = len(EMOTIONS) # Paper Table 2: Psychological priors from Thornton & Tamir (2017) PSYCHOLOGICAL_PRIORS = np.array([ [0.30, 0.15, 0.05, 0.10, 0.05, 0.05, 0.30], # Happy [0.20, 0.20, 0.15, 0.10, 0.10, 0.10, 0.15], # Surprise [0.10, 0.10, 0.25, 0.15, 0.15, 0.10, 0.15], # Angry [0.15, 0.10, 0.10, 0.20, 0.10, 0.15, 0.20], # Sad [0.10, 0.15, 0.20, 0.15, 0.15, 0.10, 0.15], # Disgust [0.15, 0.10, 0.10, 0.20, 0.10, 0.15, 0.20], # Fear [0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.15, 0.10, 0.10, 0.20], # Neutral ]) EMOTION_COLORS = { 'Happy': '#FFD700', 'Surprise': '#FF69B4', 'Angry': '#FF4444', 'Sad': '#4169E1', 'Disgust': '#9370DB', 'Fear': '#20B2AA', 'Neutral': '#808080' } def calculate_entropy(matrix): """Eq. 10: H(P) = -1/7 * sum P_ij log P_ij""" P = matrix + 1e-10 entropy = -np.sum(P * np.log(P)) / N_EMOTIONS return entropy def generate_candidates(current_matrix, n_candidates=20, alpha=10.0, epsilon=0.1): """Eq. 7: Dirichlet perturbation""" candidates = [] for _ in range(n_candidates): candidate = np.zeros_like(current_matrix) for i in range(N_EMOTIONS): alpha_params = alpha * current_matrix[i] + epsilon candidate[i] = dirichlet.rvs(alpha_params)[0] candidates.append(candidate) return candidates def calculate_reward(success, n_rounds, collection_days, alpha_reward=100.0, d_max=180): """Eq. 3: Reward function""" if not success: return -d_max d_extended = max(1, collection_days) n = max(1, n_rounds) return -alpha_reward * np.log(n) / d_extended def expected_improvement(gp, X_candidates, observations_y, xi=0.01): """Eq. 6: EI acquisition function""" if len(observations_y) < 2: return np.ones(len(X_candidates)) g_best = max(observations_y) mu, sigma = gp.predict(X_candidates, return_std=True) improvement = mu - g_best - xi Z = np.divide(improvement, sigma, where=sigma > 0, out=np.zeros_like(improvement)) ei = improvement * norm.cdf(Z) + sigma * norm.pdf(Z) ei[sigma == 0.0] = 0.0 return np.maximum(np.nan_to_num(ei, 0.0), 0.0) def simulate_negotiation(matrix, scenario_difficulty=0.5): """Simulate a debt negotiation outcome based on emotional strategy""" emotion_idx = EMOTIONS.index('Neutral') n_rounds = 0 max_rounds = 30 creditor_pos = 30.0 debtor_pos = 120.0 for _ in range(max_rounds): n_rounds += 1 probs = matrix[emotion_idx] emotion_idx = np.random.choice(N_EMOTIONS, p=probs) emotion = EMOTIONS[emotion_idx] # Emotion-dependent concession if emotion == 'Happy': creditor_move = np.random.uniform(2, 6) debtor_move = np.random.uniform(3, 8) elif emotion == 'Sad': creditor_move = np.random.uniform(3, 7) debtor_move = np.random.uniform(4, 10) elif emotion == 'Angry': creditor_move = np.random.uniform(0, 2) debtor_move = np.random.uniform(0, 3) elif emotion == 'Fear': creditor_move = np.random.uniform(1, 4) debtor_move = np.random.uniform(5, 12) elif emotion == 'Surprise': creditor_move = np.random.uniform(2, 5) debtor_move = np.random.uniform(2, 7) elif emotion == 'Disgust': creditor_move = np.random.uniform(0, 2) debtor_move = np.random.uniform(0, 2) else: creditor_move = np.random.uniform(1, 4) debtor_move = np.random.uniform(2, 6) difficulty_factor = 1.0 + scenario_difficulty * 0.5 creditor_pos += creditor_move * difficulty_factor debtor_pos -= debtor_move if abs(creditor_pos - debtor_pos) <= 5: final_days = (creditor_pos + debtor_pos) / 2 return True, n_rounds, final_days return False, n_rounds, 180 def plot_transition_matrix(matrix, title="Emotional Transition Matrix"): """Plot heatmap of transition matrix""" fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(8, 6)) sns.heatmap(matrix, annot=True, fmt='.2f', cmap='YlOrRd', xticklabels=EMOTIONS, yticklabels=EMOTIONS, ax=ax, vmin=0, vmax=0.5, cbar_kws={'label': 'Probability'}) ax.set_title(title, fontsize=14, fontweight='bold') ax.set_xlabel('To Emotion', fontsize=11) ax.set_ylabel('From Emotion', fontsize=11) plt.tight_layout() return fig def plot_optimization_progress(rewards, entropies, success_rates): """Plot learning curves""" fig, axes = plt.subplots(1, 3, figsize=(15, 4)) axes[0].plot(rewards, 'b-o', markersize=4, linewidth=1.5) axes[0].set_title('Reward per Iteration', fontweight='bold') axes[0].set_xlabel('Iteration') axes[0].set_ylabel('Reward') axes[0].grid(True, alpha=0.3) axes[1].plot(entropies, 'r-s', markersize=4, linewidth=1.5) axes[1].set_title('Matrix Entropy', fontweight='bold') axes[1].set_xlabel('Iteration') axes[1].set_ylabel('Entropy') axes[1].grid(True, alpha=0.3) axes[2].plot([sr * 100 for sr in success_rates], 'g-^', markersize=4, linewidth=1.5) axes[2].set_title('Success Rate (%)', fontweight='bold') axes[2].set_xlabel('Iteration') axes[2].set_ylabel('Success Rate') axes[2].set_ylim(0, 105) axes[2].grid(True, alpha=0.3) plt.tight_layout() return fig def plot_emotion_sequence(sequence): """Plot emotion trajectory""" fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 3)) colors = [list(EMOTION_COLORS.values())[EMOTIONS.index(e)] for e in sequence] y_vals = [EMOTIONS.index(e) for e in sequence] ax.scatter(range(len(sequence)), y_vals, c=colors, s=80, zorder=5) ax.plot(range(len(sequence)), y_vals, 'k-', alpha=0.3, linewidth=1) ax.set_yticks(range(N_EMOTIONS)) ax.set_yticklabels(EMOTIONS) ax.set_xlabel('Negotiation Round') ax.set_title('Creditor Emotion Trajectory', fontweight='bold') ax.grid(True, alpha=0.2) plt.tight_layout() return fig def run_emodebt_demo(n_iterations, n_negotiations, scenario_difficulty, dirichlet_alpha, exploration_xi): """Main demo: run Bayesian optimization for emotional transitions""" np.random.seed(42) current_matrix = PSYCHOLOGICAL_PRIORS.copy() kernel = C(1.0, (1e-3, 1e3)) * Matern(length_scale=1.0, nu=1.5) gp = GaussianProcessRegressor(kernel=kernel, alpha=1e-6, normalize_y=True, n_restarts_optimizer=5) observations_X = [] observations_y = [] best_matrix = current_matrix.copy() best_reward = -np.inf all_rewards = [] all_entropies = [] all_success_rates = [] last_emotion_sequence = [] log_text = "🧠 EmoDebt Bayesian Optimization\n" + "=" * 50 + "\n\n" for iteration in range(int(n_iterations)): iteration_rewards = [] iteration_successes = 0 for neg in range(int(n_negotiations)): success, n_rounds, collection_days = simulate_negotiation( current_matrix, scenario_difficulty ) reward = calculate_reward(success, n_rounds, collection_days) iteration_rewards.append(reward) if success: iteration_successes += 1 # Track emotion sequence for last negotiation if iteration == int(n_iterations) - 1 and neg == 0: emotion_idx = EMOTIONS.index('Neutral') last_emotion_sequence = ['Neutral'] for _ in range(n_rounds - 1): probs = current_matrix[emotion_idx] emotion_idx = np.random.choice(N_EMOTIONS, p=probs) last_emotion_sequence.append(EMOTIONS[emotion_idx]) avg_reward = np.mean(iteration_rewards) success_rate = iteration_successes / int(n_negotiations) # Update GP flattened = current_matrix.flatten() observations_X.append(flattened) observations_y.append(avg_reward) if avg_reward > best_reward: best_reward = avg_reward best_matrix = current_matrix.copy() # Train GP and optimize if len(observations_y) >= 3: X = np.array(observations_X) y = np.array(observations_y) try: gp.fit(X, y) except Exception: pass candidates = generate_candidates(current_matrix, n_candidates=20, alpha=dirichlet_alpha, epsilon=0.1) X_candidates = np.array([c.flatten() for c in candidates]) ei_values = expected_improvement(gp, X_candidates, observations_y, xi=exploration_xi) best_idx = np.argmax(ei_values) current_matrix = candidates[best_idx] entropy = calculate_entropy(current_matrix) all_rewards.append(avg_reward) all_entropies.append(entropy) all_success_rates.append(success_rate) log_text += f"Iteration {iteration + 1}: Reward={avg_reward:.3f} | " log_text += f"SR={success_rate:.0%} | Entropy={entropy:.3f}" if avg_reward == best_reward: log_text += " β˜… Best" log_text += "\n" log_text += f"\n{'=' * 50}\n" log_text += f"Best reward: {best_reward:.3f}\n" log_text += f"Final entropy: {all_entropies[-1]:.3f}\n" log_text += f"Final success rate: {all_success_rates[-1]:.0%}\n" # Generate plots prior_fig = plot_transition_matrix(PSYCHOLOGICAL_PRIORS, "Initial Psychological Priors (P⁰)") learned_fig = plot_transition_matrix(best_matrix, "Learned Optimal Matrix (P*)") progress_fig = plot_optimization_progress(all_rewards, all_entropies, all_success_rates) if last_emotion_sequence: emotion_fig = plot_emotion_sequence(last_emotion_sequence) else: emotion_fig = plt.figure(figsize=(10, 3)) return prior_fig, learned_fig, progress_fig, emotion_fig, log_text def show_paper_info(): """Return paper information""" return """ ## EmoDebt: Bayesian-Optimized Emotional Intelligence for Strategic Agent-to-Agent Debt Recovery **Accepted at AAMAS 2026** β€” 25th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and Multiagent Systems **Authors:** Yunbo Long, Yuhan Liu, Liming Xu, Alexandra Brintrup **Affiliations:** University of Cambridge, University of Toronto, The Alan Turing Institute ### Abstract EmoDebt introduces a Bayesian-optimized emotional intelligence engine that reframes emotional intelligence as a sequential decision-making problem. Through a 7Γ—7 transition probability matrix across seven emotional states, initialized with psychologically informed priors, and optimized via Gaussian Process-based Bayesian optimization, EmoDebt discovers optimal emotional counter-strategies for agent-to-agent debt recovery negotiations. ### Links - πŸ“„ [arXiv Paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.21080) - πŸ’» [GitHub Code](https://github.com/Yunbo-max/EmoDebt) - πŸ† [AAMAS 2026 Accepted Papers](https://cyprusconferences.org/aamas2026/accepted-research-track/) """ # ============================================================================ # GRADIO INTERFACE # ============================================================================ with gr.Blocks( title="EmoDebt: Bayesian Emotional Intelligence for Debt Recovery", theme=gr.themes.Soft() ) as demo: gr.Markdown(""" # 🧠 EmoDebt: Bayesian-Optimized Emotional Intelligence ### Strategic Agent-to-Agent Debt Recovery | [Paper](https://arxiv.org/abs/2503.21080) | [GitHub](https://github.com/Yunbo-max/EmoDebt) | Accepted at AAMAS 2026 """) with gr.Tabs(): with gr.Tab("πŸ”¬ Interactive Demo"): gr.Markdown("### Run Bayesian Optimization for Emotional Transition Strategies") gr.Markdown("Simulate how EmoDebt learns optimal creditor emotional transitions against debtor strategies.") with gr.Row(): with gr.Column(scale=1): n_iterations = gr.Slider(3, 30, value=10, step=1, label="Optimization Iterations") n_negotiations = gr.Slider(1, 10, value=5, step=1, label="Negotiations per Iteration") scenario_difficulty = gr.Slider(0.0, 1.0, value=0.5, step=0.1, label="Scenario Difficulty") dirichlet_alpha = gr.Slider(1.0, 30.0, value=10.0, step=1.0, label="Dirichlet Ξ± (concentration)") exploration_xi = gr.Slider(0.001, 0.1, value=0.01, step=0.001, label="Exploration ΞΎ (EI parameter)") run_btn = gr.Button("πŸš€ Run EmoDebt Optimization", variant="primary", size="lg") with gr.Column(scale=2): log_output = gr.Textbox(label="Optimization Log", lines=15, max_lines=25) with gr.Row(): prior_plot = gr.Plot(label="Initial Priors (P⁰)") learned_plot = gr.Plot(label="Learned Matrix (P*)") with gr.Row(): progress_plot = gr.Plot(label="Learning Progress") with gr.Row(): emotion_plot = gr.Plot(label="Sample Emotion Trajectory") run_btn.click( fn=run_emodebt_demo, inputs=[n_iterations, n_negotiations, scenario_difficulty, dirichlet_alpha, exploration_xi], outputs=[prior_plot, learned_plot, progress_plot, emotion_plot, log_output] ) with gr.Tab("πŸ“„ About the Paper"): gr.Markdown(show_paper_info()) gr.Markdown("### Psychological Priors (Table 2 from Paper)") prior_data = [] for i, row_emotion in enumerate(EMOTIONS): row = [row_emotion] + [f"{PSYCHOLOGICAL_PRIORS[i, j]:.2f}" for j in range(N_EMOTIONS)] prior_data.append(row) gr.Dataframe( headers=["From \\ To"] + EMOTIONS, value=prior_data, interactive=False ) with gr.Tab("πŸ“– How It Works"): gr.Markdown(""" ### EmoDebt Algorithm Overview **1. Emotional State Modeling (Eq. 1)** - 7 emotional states: Happy, Surprise, Angry, Sad, Disgust, Fear, Neutral - Transitions governed by a 7Γ—7 stochastic matrix P where P_ij = P(e_{t+1}=j | e_t=i) **2. Bayesian Optimization (Eq. 2-5)** - Treats negotiation outcome as black-box function g: ℝ⁴⁹ β†’ ℝ - Gaussian Process with MatΓ©rn 3/2 kernel models the reward surface - Expected Improvement (EI) acquisition function balances exploration/exploitation **3. Reward Function (Eq. 3)** - Success: r(P) = -Ξ± Β· log(n_rounds) / d_extended - Failure: r(P) = -d_max **4. Online Learning (Eq. 7-8)** - Dirichlet perturbations generate candidate matrices - GP-based EI selects the most promising candidate - Early stopping after K=5 iterations without improvement **5. Key Innovation** - Reframes emotional intelligence as sequential decision-making - Psychologically-grounded initialization ensures plausible starting strategies - Online learning discovers counter-strategies against specific debtor tactics """) gr.Markdown("---") gr.Markdown("*EmoDebt β€” Yunbo Long, Yuhan Liu, Liming Xu, Alexandra Brintrup | University of Cambridge & University of Toronto*") if __name__ == "__main__": demo.launch()