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"generated_utc": "2026-04-30T12:16:00+00:00",
"package_version": "nuclear_uap_hf_space_package_v0",
"assessment": {
"assessment_version": "nuclear_uap_explanatory_private_preview_v1",
"population_explanation_strength_score": 78,
"airport_confounder_strength_score": 90,
"nuclear_non_support_strength_score": 95,
"missing_geocode_handling": {
"analysis_status": "completed",
"total_us_rows": 123013,
"missing_geocode_rows": 17783,
"missing_geocode_share": 0.144562,
"reason_bucket_counts": {
"unmatched_place_name": 14584,
"landmark_or_route_location": 1351,
"compound_or_parenthetical_place": 1059,
"county_level_location": 340,
"relative_location_phrase": 270,
"blank_city": 179
},
"generated_utc": "2026-04-29T01:25:15+00:00",
"safe_handling": "Missing geocodes are not imputed into the spatial tests. They are counted and routed to explicit recovery paths."
},
"what_we_can_claim": [
"The missing NUFORC-derived rows were not geocoded by assumption; they were excluded from spatial tests and logged for recovery.",
"The public geocoded report rows can be compared against Census place population and commercial-airport proximity as explanatory covariates.",
"At the place level, report counts can be assessed against population concentration without claiming reports are true or false.",
"Airport proximity can be treated as a public-source confounder, not as proof that airplanes caused specific reports.",
"The nuclear power-plant proximity claim remains unsupported in this evidence surface after matched non-nuclear power-plant controls."
],
"what_we_cannot_claim": [
"This dataset cannot prove what witnesses saw.",
"This dataset cannot claim aircraft explain every report.",
"This dataset cannot treat city/place centroids as exact sighting coordinates.",
"This dataset cannot rule out all nuclear-weapons, military, or classified-site hypotheses.",
"This dataset cannot assume the skipped missing-geocode rows would preserve or reverse the result without a separate recovery run."
],
"safe_claim_language_passes": true,
"plain_english_assessment": "The better explanation surface is population/reporting geography plus ordinary aviation proximity, while the nuclear-specific proximity claim remains unsupported after controls."
},
"population_summary": {
"event_count": 105250,
"matched_population_event_count": 105086,
"matched_population_event_share": 0.998442,
"unique_event_places": 13660,
"census_place_count": 31805,
"population_bin_event_distribution": {
"10k_50k": {
"event_count": 28759,
"event_share": 0.273245
},
"lt_10k": {
"event_count": 29671,
"event_share": 0.28191
},
"50k_250k": {
"event_count": 28951,
"event_share": 0.275069
},
"gte_1m": {
"event_count": 4635,
"event_share": 0.044038
},
"250k_1m": {
"event_count": 13070,
"event_share": 0.124181
},
"unknown_population": {
"event_count": 164,
"event_share": 0.001558
}
},
"log_population_log_event_count_pearson": 0.641288,
"top_10pct_places_by_population_event_share": 0.668548,
"top_10pct_places_by_population_population_share": 0.775352,
"top_places_by_event_count": [
{
"place_name": "New York city",
"state": "NY",
"population": 8804190,
"event_count": 858,
"events_per_100k_population": 9.745
},
{
"place_name": "Phoenix city",
"state": "AZ",
"population": 1608139,
"event_count": 781,
"events_per_100k_population": 48.565
},
{
"place_name": "Seattle city",
"state": "WA",
"population": 737015,
"event_count": 774,
"events_per_100k_population": 105.018
},
{
"place_name": "Las Vegas city",
"state": "NV",
"population": 641903,
"event_count": 658,
"events_per_100k_population": 102.508
},
{
"place_name": "Portland city",
"state": "OR",
"population": 652503,
"event_count": 580,
"events_per_100k_population": 88.888
},
{
"place_name": "Los Angeles city",
"state": "CA",
"population": 3898747,
"event_count": 572,
"events_per_100k_population": 14.671
},
{
"place_name": "San Diego city",
"state": "CA",
"population": 1386932,
"event_count": 553,
"events_per_100k_population": 39.872
},
{
"place_name": "Chicago city",
"state": "IL",
"population": 2746388,
"event_count": 443,
"events_per_100k_population": 16.13
},
{
"place_name": "Tucson city",
"state": "AZ",
"population": 542629,
"event_count": 441,
"events_per_100k_population": 81.271
},
{
"place_name": "Houston city",
"state": "TX",
"population": 2304580,
"event_count": 429,
"events_per_100k_population": 18.615
},
{
"place_name": "Albuquerque city",
"state": "NM",
"population": 564559,
"event_count": 390,
"events_per_100k_population": 69.08
},
{
"place_name": "Orlando city",
"state": "FL",
"population": 307573,
"event_count": 383,
"events_per_100k_population": 124.523
},
{
"place_name": "Miami city",
"state": "FL",
"population": 442241,
"event_count": 356,
"events_per_100k_population": 80.499
},
{
"place_name": "Austin city",
"state": "TX",
"population": 961855,
"event_count": 336,
"events_per_100k_population": 34.933
},
{
"place_name": "Denver city",
"state": "CO",
"population": 715522,
"event_count": 330,
"events_per_100k_population": 46.12
},
{
"place_name": "Sacramento city",
"state": "CA",
"population": 524943,
"event_count": 314,
"events_per_100k_population": 59.816
},
{
"place_name": "Myrtle Beach city",
"state": "SC",
"population": 35682,
"event_count": 298,
"events_per_100k_population": 835.155
},
{
"place_name": "San Jose city",
"state": "CA",
"population": 1013240,
"event_count": 283,
"events_per_100k_population": 27.93
},
{
"place_name": "San Antonio city",
"state": "TX",
"population": 1434625,
"event_count": 274,
"events_per_100k_population": 19.099
},
{
"place_name": "St. Louis city",
"state": "MO",
"population": 301578,
"event_count": 273,
"events_per_100k_population": 90.524
},
{
"place_name": "Colorado Springs city",
"state": "CO",
"population": 478961,
"event_count": 271,
"events_per_100k_population": 56.581
},
{
"place_name": "Jacksonville city",
"state": "FL",
"population": 949611,
"event_count": 261,
"events_per_100k_population": 27.485
},
{
"place_name": "Columbus city",
"state": "OH",
"population": 905748,
"event_count": 260,
"events_per_100k_population": 28.706
},
{
"place_name": "Indianapolis city (balance)",
"state": "IN",
"population": 887642,
"event_count": 256,
"events_per_100k_population": 28.84
},
{
"place_name": "San Francisco city",
"state": "CA",
"population": 873965,
"event_count": 250,
"events_per_100k_population": 28.605
}
],
"top_places_by_per_capita_rate_min_10_events": [
{
"place_name": "Newburgh town",
"state": "IN",
"population": 3344,
"event_count": 84,
"events_per_100k_population": 2511.962
},
{
"place_name": "Norris City village",
"state": "IL",
"population": 1145,
"event_count": 27,
"events_per_100k_population": 2358.079
},
{
"place_name": "Gila Bend town",
"state": "AZ",
"population": 1892,
"event_count": 37,
"events_per_100k_population": 1955.603
},
{
"place_name": "Garrettsville village",
"state": "OH",
"population": 2449,
"event_count": 43,
"events_per_100k_population": 1755.819
},
{
"place_name": "Woodbine city",
"state": "GA",
"population": 1062,
"event_count": 17,
"events_per_100k_population": 1600.753
},
{
"place_name": "Payson village",
"state": "IL",
"population": 1025,
"event_count": 16,
"events_per_100k_population": 1560.976
},
{
"place_name": "Lake George village",
"state": "NY",
"population": 1008,
"event_count": 14,
"events_per_100k_population": 1388.889
},
{
"place_name": "Star Valley town",
"state": "AZ",
"population": 2484,
"event_count": 33,
"events_per_100k_population": 1328.502
},
{
"place_name": "Quincy CDP",
"state": "CA",
"population": 1630,
"event_count": 19,
"events_per_100k_population": 1165.644
},
{
"place_name": "Santa Claus town",
"state": "IN",
"population": 2586,
"event_count": 30,
"events_per_100k_population": 1160.093
},
{
"place_name": "North Pole city",
"state": "AK",
"population": 2243,
"event_count": 25,
"events_per_100k_population": 1114.579
},
{
"place_name": "Surfside Beach town",
"state": "SC",
"population": 4155,
"event_count": 46,
"events_per_100k_population": 1107.1
},
{
"place_name": "Keaau CDP",
"state": "HI",
"population": 1195,
"event_count": 13,
"events_per_100k_population": 1087.866
},
{
"place_name": "Rehoboth Beach city",
"state": "DE",
"population": 1108,
"event_count": 12,
"events_per_100k_population": 1083.032
},
{
"place_name": "Davenport city",
"state": "WA",
"population": 1703,
"event_count": 18,
"events_per_100k_population": 1056.958
},
{
"place_name": "Langhorne borough",
"state": "PA",
"population": 1643,
"event_count": 17,
"events_per_100k_population": 1034.693
},
{
"place_name": "Sedona city",
"state": "AZ",
"population": 9684,
"event_count": 96,
"events_per_100k_population": 991.326
},
{
"place_name": "Burnsville town",
"state": "NC",
"population": 1614,
"event_count": 16,
"events_per_100k_population": 991.326
},
{
"place_name": "Pine Bush CDP",
"state": "NY",
"population": 1751,
"event_count": 16,
"events_per_100k_population": 913.764
},
{
"place_name": "Tonasket city",
"state": "WA",
"population": 1103,
"event_count": 10,
"events_per_100k_population": 906.618
},
{
"place_name": "Wendover city",
"state": "UT",
"population": 1115,
"event_count": 10,
"events_per_100k_population": 896.861
},
{
"place_name": "Langley city",
"state": "WA",
"population": 1147,
"event_count": 10,
"events_per_100k_population": 871.84
},
{
"place_name": "Nags Head town",
"state": "NC",
"population": 3168,
"event_count": 27,
"events_per_100k_population": 852.273
},
{
"place_name": "Liverpool village",
"state": "NY",
"population": 2242,
"event_count": 19,
"events_per_100k_population": 847.458
},
{
"place_name": "Newtown borough",
"state": "CT",
"population": 1914,
"event_count": 16,
"events_per_100k_population": 835.946
}
]
},
"airport_summary": {
"major_airport_count": 504,
"event_nearest_major_airport_distance_median_miles": 13.277,
"event_nearest_major_airport_distance_p90_miles": 41.701,
"population_weighted_nearest_major_airport_distance_median_miles": 10.764,
"event_share_within_10_miles_major_airport": 0.3838,
"population_weighted_share_within_10_miles_major_airport": 0.468384,
"event_vs_population_lift_within_10_miles_major_airport": 0.819413,
"event_share_within_25_miles_major_airport": 0.736105,
"population_weighted_share_within_25_miles_major_airport": 0.819608,
"event_vs_population_lift_within_25_miles_major_airport": 0.898117,
"event_share_within_50_miles_major_airport": 0.94172,
"population_weighted_share_within_50_miles_major_airport": 0.961939,
"event_vs_population_lift_within_50_miles_major_airport": 0.978981
},
"missing_geocode_summary": {
"analysis_status": "completed",
"total_us_rows": 123013,
"missing_geocode_rows": 17783,
"missing_geocode_share": 0.144562,
"reason_bucket_counts": {
"unmatched_place_name": 14584,
"landmark_or_route_location": 1351,
"compound_or_parenthetical_place": 1059,
"county_level_location": 340,
"relative_location_phrase": 270,
"blank_city": 179
},
"generated_utc": "2026-04-29T01:25:15+00:00",
"safe_handling": "Missing geocodes are not imputed into the spatial tests. They are counted and routed to explicit recovery paths."
},
"nuclear_statistical_tests": {
"statistical_tests_version": "nuclear_uap_correlation_index_private_preview_v1:statistical_tests",
"uap_event_count": 105250,
"nuclear_site_count": 57,
"control_site_count": 285,
"near_any_nuclear_event_counts": {
"25": 8023,
"50": 27781,
"100": 52567
},
"tests_by_radius": {
"25": {
"radius_miles": 25,
"nuclear_site_count": 57,
"control_site_count": 285,
"nuclear_mean_reports_per_site": 156.2105,
"control_mean_reports_per_site": 268.0561,
"nuclear_to_control_mean_ratio": 0.582753,
"nuclear_median_reports_per_site": 118,
"control_median_reports_per_site": 117,
"observed_mean_difference": -111.845614,
"p_value_one_sided_nuclear_greater": 0.994006,
"p_value_two_sided": 0.024975,
"permutations": 1000,
"seed": 1337
},
"50": {
"radius_miles": 50,
"nuclear_site_count": 57,
"control_site_count": 285,
"nuclear_mean_reports_per_site": 649.9825,
"control_mean_reports_per_site": 763.0491,
"nuclear_to_control_mean_ratio": 0.851823,
"nuclear_median_reports_per_site": 446,
"control_median_reports_per_site": 452,
"observed_mean_difference": -113.066667,
"p_value_one_sided_nuclear_greater": 0.85015,
"p_value_two_sided": 0.290709,
"permutations": 1000,
"seed": 1337
},
"100": {
"radius_miles": 100,
"nuclear_site_count": 57,
"control_site_count": 285,
"nuclear_mean_reports_per_site": 2062.7018,
"control_mean_reports_per_site": 2125.4667,
"nuclear_to_control_mean_ratio": 0.97047,
"nuclear_median_reports_per_site": 1593,
"control_median_reports_per_site": 1617,
"observed_mean_difference": -62.764912,
"p_value_one_sided_nuclear_greater": 0.611389,
"p_value_two_sided": 0.752248,
"permutations": 1000,
"seed": 1337
}
},
"primary_test_radius_miles": 50,
"resolution_status": "not_supported_after_matched_power_plant_controls",
"assessment_confidence": "high",
"recommended_plain_english": "The public geocoded report rows do not show a nuclear-specific proximity signal after matched non-nuclear power-plant controls in the primary 50-mile test.",
"what_we_can_claim": [
"This run tests whether public geocoded UFO-report mirror rows are closer to geolocated nuclear power-plant sites than to matched non-nuclear power-plant controls.",
"The primary assessment is spatial and comparative; it is not a causal test."
],
"what_we_cannot_claim": [
"This run cannot claim nuclear activity attracts UAP or UFO reports.",
"This run cannot evaluate classified military or weapons-site activity unless those sites are represented by public geocoded source rows.",
"City-level report geocoding introduces location uncertainty and should not be treated as eyewitness-level coordinates."
],
"statistical_tests_hash": "4d32a1462acc66128ec60c3a39e3cfafcf02ed2223d29ee83810a460021a55fc",
"public_infrastructure_layers": {
"layer_stats_version": "nuclear_uap_correlation_index_private_preview_v1:public_infrastructure_layers",
"layer_reports": {
"public_military_installation": {
"label": "Public military installations",
"site_count": 815,
"event_count": 105250,
"near_any_counts": {
"25": 68840,
"50": 91139,
"100": 103093
},
"event_share_within_50_miles": 0.865929,
"mean_reports_per_site_50_miles": 552.0736,
"interpretation": "descriptive_public_layer_only"
},
"public_nuclear_security_enterprise": {
"label": "Public NNSA / nuclear-security-enterprise sites",
"site_count": 8,
"event_count": 105250,
"near_any_counts": {
"25": 2298,
"50": 4496,
"100": 9207
},
"event_share_within_50_miles": 0.042717,
"mean_reports_per_site_50_miles": 504.375,
"interpretation": "descriptive_public_layer_only"
},
"public_strategic_delivery_installation": {
"label": "Public strategic delivery installations identified inside the military layer",
"site_count": 10,
"event_count": 105250,
"near_any_counts": {
"25": 2781,
"50": 5325,
"100": 9402
},
"event_share_within_50_miles": 0.050594,
"rows_with_nearest_or_nearby_signal": 105250,
"interpretation": "descriptive_public_layer_only"
}
},
"what_we_can_claim": [
"This layer measures public report proximity to public-source military-installation and NNSA site anchors.",
"The public military layer is official NTAD geometry; the public NNSA layer is official location text anchored to Census place centroids or source-backed public coordinates."
],
"what_we_cannot_claim": [
"This layer does not identify classified activity, weapons storage, operational status, or causation.",
"The public NNSA layer uses place centroids or public coordinate anchors, not exact facility boundaries.",
"Descriptive proximity to military infrastructure is not a matched-control causal or attraction test."
],
"layer_stats_hash": "cfb6f58a4139401263226f472daa9003eef79c0103405574b6d54571cb1736d6"
}
},
"public_infrastructure_layers": {
"layer_stats_version": "nuclear_uap_correlation_index_private_preview_v1:public_infrastructure_layers",
"layer_reports": {
"public_military_installation": {
"label": "Public military installations",
"site_count": 815,
"event_count": 105250,
"near_any_counts": {
"25": 68840,
"50": 91139,
"100": 103093
},
"event_share_within_50_miles": 0.865929,
"mean_reports_per_site_50_miles": 552.0736,
"interpretation": "descriptive_public_layer_only"
},
"public_nuclear_security_enterprise": {
"label": "Public NNSA / nuclear-security-enterprise sites",
"site_count": 8,
"event_count": 105250,
"near_any_counts": {
"25": 2298,
"50": 4496,
"100": 9207
},
"event_share_within_50_miles": 0.042717,
"mean_reports_per_site_50_miles": 504.375,
"interpretation": "descriptive_public_layer_only"
},
"public_strategic_delivery_installation": {
"label": "Public strategic delivery installations identified inside the military layer",
"site_count": 10,
"event_count": 105250,
"near_any_counts": {
"25": 2781,
"50": 5325,
"100": 9402
},
"event_share_within_50_miles": 0.050594,
"rows_with_nearest_or_nearby_signal": 105250,
"interpretation": "descriptive_public_layer_only"
}
},
"what_we_can_claim": [
"This layer measures public report proximity to public-source military-installation and NNSA site anchors.",
"The public military layer is official NTAD geometry; the public NNSA layer is official location text anchored to Census place centroids or source-backed public coordinates."
],
"what_we_cannot_claim": [
"This layer does not identify classified activity, weapons storage, operational status, or causation.",
"The public NNSA layer uses place centroids or public coordinate anchors, not exact facility boundaries.",
"Descriptive proximity to military infrastructure is not a matched-control causal or attraction test."
],
"layer_stats_hash": "cfb6f58a4139401263226f472daa9003eef79c0103405574b6d54571cb1736d6"
},
"plain_language": {
"what_it_is": "A public-source evidence surface for testing whether public UAP/UFO report rows cluster around nuclear power plants after simple controls, with descriptive public military/NNSA proximity layers.",
"what_it_is_not": "It is not a claim that reports are true, false, alien, aircraft, coordinated, or caused by any one factor.",
"headline_finding": "In this evidence surface, public geocoded report rows do not show a nuclear-specific proximity signal after matched non-nuclear power-plant controls.",
"best_supported_explanation": "Population/reporting geography is a strong observable factor; major-airport proximity appears mostly consistent with where people live."
}
} |