app.py

from __future__ import annotations

import html
import os
from functools import lru_cache
from pathlib import Path

import gradio as gr
import pandas as pd


ROOT = Path(__file__).parent
DATA = ROOT / "data"


@lru_cache(maxsize=1)
def metrics():
    import json

    return json.loads((DATA / "summary_metrics.json").read_text(encoding="utf-8"))


@lru_cache(maxsize=1)
def places():
    return pd.read_csv(DATA / "place_exposure.csv")


@lru_cache(maxsize=1)
def missing_geocodes():
    return pd.read_csv(DATA / "missing_geocode_examples.csv")


@lru_cache(maxsize=1)
def public_infrastructure_sites():
    path = DATA / "public_infrastructure_sites.csv"
    if not path.exists():
        return pd.DataFrame()
    return pd.read_csv(path)


@lru_cache(maxsize=1)
def events():
    return pd.read_csv(DATA / "event_explanatory_features.csv.gz")


def state_choices():
    state_values = sorted(str(value) for value in places()["state"].dropna().unique())
    return ["All"] + state_values


def bucket_choices():
    values = sorted(str(value) for value in missing_geocodes()["reason_bucket"].dropna().unique())
    return ["All"] + values


def population_bins():
    return ["All", "lt_10k", "10k_50k", "50k_250k", "250k_1m", "gte_1m", "unknown_population"]


def score_cards():
    m = metrics()
    assessment = m["assessment"]
    population = m["population_summary"]
    airport = m["airport_summary"]
    missing = m["missing_geocode_summary"]
    return f"""

<div class="score-grid">

  <div class="score-card"><div class="label">Population signal</div><div class="score">{assessment["population_explanation_strength_score"]}/100</div><div class="small">log-pop/report correlation {population["log_population_log_event_count_pearson"]}</div></div>

  <div class="score-card"><div class="label">Airport confounder</div><div class="score">{assessment["airport_confounder_strength_score"]}/100</div><div class="small">event median {airport["event_nearest_major_airport_distance_median_miles"]} mi</div></div>

  <div class="score-card"><div class="label">Nuclear non-support</div><div class="score">{assessment["nuclear_non_support_strength_score"]}/100</div><div class="small">matched controls beat nuclear in the primary test</div></div>

  <div class="score-card"><div class="label">Missing geocodes</div><div class="score">{missing["missing_geocode_rows"]}</div><div class="small">{missing["missing_geocode_share"]:.1%} of U.S. rows</div></div>

</div>

"""


def fmt_int(value):
    try:
        return f"{int(float(value)):,}"
    except (TypeError, ValueError):
        return str(value)


def fmt_float(value, digits=2):
    try:
        return f"{float(value):,.{digits}f}"
    except (TypeError, ValueError):
        return str(value)


def pct(value, digits=1):
    try:
        return f"{float(value) * 100:.{digits}f}%"
    except (TypeError, ValueError):
        return str(value)


def bar_row(label, value, max_value, color_class, note=""):
    width = 0 if max_value == 0 else max(2, min(100, (float(value) / float(max_value)) * 100))
    safe_label = html.escape(str(label))
    safe_note = html.escape(str(note))
    return f"""

    <div class="bar-row" role="img" aria-label="{safe_label}: {fmt_float(value, 2)} {safe_note}">

      <div class="bar-label"><span>{safe_label}</span><strong>{fmt_float(value, 2)}</strong></div>

      <div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill {color_class}" style="width:{width:.1f}%"></div></div>

      <div class="bar-note">{safe_note}</div>

    </div>

    """


def share_bar(label, value, color_class, note=""):
    safe_label = html.escape(str(label))
    safe_note = html.escape(str(note))
    try:
        width = max(2, min(100, float(value) * 100))
    except (TypeError, ValueError):
        width = 0
    return f"""

    <div class="share-row" role="img" aria-label="{safe_label}: {pct(value)} {safe_note}">

      <div class="share-label"><span>{safe_label}</span><strong>{pct(value)}</strong></div>

      <div class="bar-track"><div class="bar-fill {color_class}" style="width:{width:.1f}%"></div></div>

      <div class="bar-note">{safe_note}</div>

    </div>

    """


def visual_story_html():
    m = metrics()
    assessment = m["assessment"]
    stats = m["nuclear_statistical_tests"]
    primary = stats["tests_by_radius"]["50"]
    population = m["population_summary"]
    airport = m["airport_summary"]
    missing = m["missing_geocode_summary"]

    nuclear_mean = float(primary["nuclear_mean_reports_per_site"])
    control_mean = float(primary["control_mean_reports_per_site"])
    comparison_max = max(nuclear_mean, control_mean)
    nuclear_bars = (
        bar_row("Nuclear power-plant sites", nuclear_mean, comparison_max, "fill-nuclear", "mean reports per site within 50 miles")
        + bar_row("Matched non-nuclear power controls", control_mean, comparison_max, "fill-control", "mean reports per site within 50 miles")
    )

    bin_labels = {
        "lt_10k": "Places under 10k people",
        "10k_50k": "10k to 50k people",
        "50k_250k": "50k to 250k people",
        "250k_1m": "250k to 1M people",
        "gte_1m": "1M+ people",
        "unknown_population": "Unknown population",
    }
    population_bins = population["population_bin_event_distribution"]
    pop_rows = []
    for key in ["lt_10k", "10k_50k", "50k_250k", "250k_1m", "gte_1m", "unknown_population"]:
        value = population_bins.get(key, {}).get("event_share", 0)
        pop_rows.append(share_bar(bin_labels[key], value, "fill-population", f"{fmt_int(population_bins.get(key, {}).get('event_count', 0))} rows"))
    population_bars = "".join(pop_rows)

    airport_rows = []
    for radius in (10, 25, 50):
        event_key = f"event_share_within_{radius}_miles_major_airport"
        pop_key = f"population_weighted_share_within_{radius}_miles_major_airport"
        airport_rows.append(f"""

        <div class="paired-block">

          <div class="paired-title">Within {radius} miles of a major scheduled airport</div>

          {share_bar("Public report rows", airport[event_key], "fill-airport", "event-place centroids")}

          {share_bar("Population-weighted places", airport[pop_key], "fill-baseline", "baseline geography")}

        </div>

        """)
    airport_bars = "".join(airport_rows)

    missing_max = max(missing["reason_bucket_counts"].values()) if missing.get("reason_bucket_counts") else 1
    missing_bars = "".join(
        bar_row(label.replace("_", " ").title(), count, missing_max, "fill-gap", "rows needing recovery")
        for label, count in missing.get("reason_bucket_counts", {}).items()
    )

    return f"""

<section class="hero-panel">

  <div class="eyebrow">Public-source evidence surface</div>

  <h1>The nuclear-specific UAP proximity claim does not hold in this dataset</h1>

  <p class="lede">We tested public geocoded report rows against nuclear power-plant sites and matched non-nuclear power-plant controls. The stronger visible pattern is reporting geography: where people live, report, and see the sky.</p>

  <div class="claim-path" aria-label="Question, test, result">

    <div><span>Question</span><strong>Do reports cluster near nuclear plants?</strong></div>

    <div><span>Control</span><strong>Compare with similar non-nuclear power sites</strong></div>

    <div><span>Result</span><strong>No nuclear-specific lift observed</strong></div>

  </div>

</section>



<section class="visual-grid">

  <article class="viz-card wide">

    <h2>Matched controls are the comparison anchor</h2>

    <p>The 50-mile test compares nuclear power-plant sites with matched non-nuclear power-plant controls. If the nuclear claim were visible here, the nuclear bar would be clearly higher.</p>

    {nuclear_bars}

    <div class="takeaway">Nuclear/control ratio: <strong>{primary["nuclear_to_control_mean_ratio"]}</strong>. One-sided p-value for nuclear greater than controls: <strong>{primary["p_value_one_sided_nuclear_greater"]}</strong>.</div>

  </article>



  <article class="viz-card">

    <h2>Population is the first pattern to notice</h2>

    <p>Report rows are not evenly distributed across places. Place population and report count move together on a log scale.</p>

    <div class="big-number">{population["log_population_log_event_count_pearson"]}</div>

    <div class="big-number-label">log population vs. log report-count correlation</div>

    <div class="takeaway">{fmt_int(population["matched_population_event_count"])} of {fmt_int(population["event_count"])} rows matched to Census population places.</div>

  </article>



  <article class="viz-card">

    <h2>Airport proximity mostly follows people</h2>

    <p>Major airports are close to many reports, but they are also close to much of the U.S. population.</p>

    <div class="big-number">{airport["event_nearest_major_airport_distance_median_miles"]} mi</div>

    <div class="big-number-label">median report-row distance to a major scheduled airport</div>

    <div class="takeaway">Population-weighted Census-place median: <strong>{airport["population_weighted_nearest_major_airport_distance_median_miles"]} mi</strong>.</div>

  </article>



  <article class="viz-card wide">

    <h2>Reports span place sizes, with large places carrying much of the volume</h2>

    <p>These bars show the share of report rows by Census-place population bin. The table tabs remain available for exact rows.</p>

    {population_bars}

  </article>



  <article class="viz-card wide">

    <h2>Airport proximity should be read against the population baseline</h2>

    <p>If public report rows and the population baseline are close, airport proximity is a confounder rather than a standalone explanation.</p>

    {airport_bars}

  </article>



  <article class="viz-card wide">

    <h2>Uncertainty is visible, not hidden</h2>

    <p>{fmt_int(missing["missing_geocode_rows"])} U.S. rows did not resolve to Census place centroids. They are excluded from spatial tests until recovered by a public geocoder path.</p>

    {missing_bars}

  </article>

</section>



<section class="claim-box">

  <h2>How to read the evidence</h2>

  <div class="claim-grid">

    <div><strong>Supported</strong><span>Population/reporting geography is a strong observable factor.</span></div>

    <div><strong>Confounder</strong><span>Airport proximity is measurable, but close to the population baseline.</span></div>

    <div><strong>Not supported here</strong><span>A nuclear-specific proximity lift after matched power-plant controls.</span></div>

    <div><strong>Still outside scope</strong><span>Classified activity, exact witness GPS, and case-level truth claims.</span></div>

  </div>

</section>

"""


def overview_markdown():
    m = metrics()
    assessment = m["assessment"]
    stats = m["nuclear_statistical_tests"]
    primary = stats["tests_by_radius"]["50"]
    can_claim = "\n".join(f"- {item}" for item in assessment["what_we_can_claim"])
    cannot_claim = "\n".join(f"- {item}" for item in assessment["what_we_cannot_claim"])
    return f"""

# Nuclear UAP Evidence Surface



This is a public-source, reduced analytical dataset for one question: do public UFO/UAP report rows cluster around nuclear power plants after ordinary controls?



**Finding:** {assessment["plain_english_assessment"]}



Primary 50-mile test:



- Public geocoded report rows: `{stats["uap_event_count"]:,}`

- Nuclear sites: `{stats["nuclear_site_count"]}`

- Matched non-nuclear controls: `{stats["control_site_count"]}`

- Nuclear/control mean ratio: `{primary["nuclear_to_control_mean_ratio"]}`

- One-sided p-value for nuclear greater than controls: `{primary["p_value_one_sided_nuclear_greater"]}`



## What it is



- A public-source evidence surface with hashes and receipts.

- A reduced table of place/date/shape/geocode/proximity features.

- A way to inspect population, airport, and nuclear-site proximity factors.



## What it is not



- It is not proof that any report is true or false.

- It is not a claim that aircraft explain every report.

- It is not exact sighting GPS; rows use public Census place centroids.

- It is not a test of classified weapons-site activity.



## What we can claim



{can_claim}



## What we cannot claim



{cannot_claim}

"""


def public_infrastructure_html():
    layer_stats = metrics().get("public_infrastructure_layers") or {}
    reports = layer_stats.get("layer_reports") or {}
    if not reports:
        return ""
    cards = []
    labels = {
        "public_military_installation": "Public military installations",
        "public_nuclear_security_enterprise": "Public NNSA / nuclear-security-enterprise sites",
        "public_strategic_delivery_installation": "Public strategic-delivery subset",
    }
    for key in [
        "public_military_installation",
        "public_nuclear_security_enterprise",
        "public_strategic_delivery_installation",
    ]:
        report = reports.get(key) or {}
        if not report:
            continue
        near_50 = (report.get("near_any_counts") or {}).get("50", 0)
        share_50 = report.get("event_share_within_50_miles", 0)
        cards.append(
            f"""

            <div class="infra-card">

              <div class="infra-label">{html.escape(labels.get(key, key))}</div>

              <div class="infra-sites">{fmt_int(report.get("site_count", 0))} sites</div>

              <div class="infra-detail">{fmt_int(near_50)} public report rows within 50 miles ({pct(share_50)})</div>

            </div>

            """
        )
    can_claim = "".join(f"<li>{html.escape(str(item))}</li>" for item in layer_stats.get("what_we_can_claim", []))
    cannot_claim = "".join(f"<li>{html.escape(str(item))}</li>" for item in layer_stats.get("what_we_cannot_claim", []))
    return f"""

<section class="infra-panel">

  <div class="eyebrow">Added public infrastructure layer</div>

  <h2>Military and nuclear-security infrastructure are descriptive context, not a causation test</h2>

  <p>This layer adds official NTAD military installations and public NNSA/nuclear-security-enterprise anchors, including an NNSS public coordinate receipt. It helps people inspect proximity without implying classified activity, weapons storage, or attraction.</p>

  <div class="infra-grid">{''.join(cards)}</div>

  <div class="infra-claim-grid">

    <div><strong>What this layer can say</strong><ul>{can_claim}</ul></div>

    <div><strong>What this layer cannot say</strong><ul>{cannot_claim}</ul></div>

  </div>

</section>

"""


def filter_places(state, min_events, sort_by):
    df = places().copy()
    if state and state != "All":
        df = df[df["state"] == state]
    df = df[df["event_count"].fillna(0) >= int(min_events)]
    sort_col = "event_count" if sort_by == "Report count" else "events_per_100k_population"
    df = df.sort_values(sort_col, ascending=False)
    cols = [
        "place_name",
        "state",
        "population",
        "event_count",
        "events_per_100k_population",
        "nearest_major_airport_name",
        "nearest_major_airport_distance_miles",
    ]
    return df[cols].head(200)


def filter_events(state, pop_bin, airport_radius, sample_rows):
    df = events().copy()
    if state and state != "All":
        df = df[df["state"] == state]
    if pop_bin and pop_bin != "All":
        df = df[df["population_bin"] == pop_bin]
    if airport_radius == "Within 10 miles":
        df = df[df["within_10_miles_major_airport"] == "yes"]
    elif airport_radius == "Within 25 miles":
        df = df[df["within_25_miles_major_airport"] == "yes"]
    elif airport_radius == "Beyond 50 miles":
        df = df[df["within_50_miles_major_airport"] == "no"]
    cols = [
        "event_date",
        "city",
        "state",
        "shape",
        "population_bin",
        "nearest_major_airport_name",
        "nearest_major_airport_distance_miles",
        "nearest_nuclear_distance_miles",
        "nearest_control_distance_miles",
    ]
    return df[cols].head(int(sample_rows))


def filter_missing(bucket):
    df = missing_geocodes().copy()
    if bucket and bucket != "All":
        df = df[df["reason_bucket"] == bucket]
    return df.head(200)


def filter_public_infrastructure(layer):
    df = public_infrastructure_sites().copy()
    if df.empty:
        return df
    if layer and layer != "All":
        df = df[df["site_layer"] == layer]
    cols = [
        "site_name",
        "site_layer",
        "site_kind",
        "state",
        "coordinate_basis",
        "source_name",
        "source_confidence",
        "public_role",
    ]
    return df[[col for col in cols if col in df.columns]].head(300)


def download_files():
    files = [
        DATA / "event_explanatory_features.csv.gz",
        DATA / "place_exposure.csv",
        DATA / "missing_geocode_examples.csv",
        DATA / "nuclear_sites.csv",
        DATA / "matched_controls.csv",
        DATA / "site_proximity_summary.csv",
        DATA / "public_infrastructure_sites.csv",
        DATA / "public_infrastructure_site_summary.csv",
        DATA / "event_public_infrastructure_proximity.csv.gz",
        DATA / "statistical_tests.json",
        DATA / "summary_metrics.json",
        DATA / "source_receipts_combined.csv",
        DATA / "artifact_manifest.json",
    ]
    return [str(path) for path in files if path.exists()]


css = """

html,

body,

#root,

.app,

gradio-app {

  background: #f3f6fa !important;

  color: #18232f !important;

}

html body p,

html body a,

html body [role="link"] {

  color: #294860 !important;

}

.gradio-container {

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  --body-background-fill: #f3f6fa;

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  --input-background-fill: #ffffff;

  --input-border-color: #c8d2de;

  --button-secondary-background-fill: #ffffff;

  --button-secondary-text-color: #18232f;

}

.gradio-container,

.gradio-container h1,

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.gradio-container td,

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.gradio-container input,

.gradio-container textarea,

.gradio-container select {

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}

.gradio-container input,

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.gradio-container [data-testid="dropdown"],

.gradio-container [data-testid="dropdown"] *,

.gradio-container .dropdown,

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.gradio-container .wrap-inner,

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.gradio-container [role="listbox"],

.gradio-container [role="listbox"] *,

.gradio-container [role="option"],

.gradio-container [role="option"] {

  color: #18232f !important;

  background-color: #ffffff !important;

  opacity: 1 !important;

}

.gradio-container [role="option"]:hover,

.gradio-container [role="option"][aria-selected="true"],

.gradio-container .option:hover,

.gradio-container .item:hover {

  color: #0f2533 !important;

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}

.gradio-container .prose,

.gradio-container .markdown,

.gradio-container [data-testid="markdown"],

.gradio-container [data-testid="block-label"],

.gradio-container .dataframe,

.gradio-container .wrap {

  color: #18232f !important;

  background: transparent;

}

.gradio-container button,

.gradio-container [role="tab"],

.gradio-container [role="button"] {

  color: #18232f !important;

}

.gradio-container a,

.gradio-container footer,

.gradio-container footer *,

.gradio-container [data-testid="built-with"],

.gradio-container [data-testid="built-with"] * {

  color: #294860 !important;

}

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  background: #f3f6fa !important;

}

.gradio-container table,

.gradio-container thead,

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}

.gradio-container code {

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  border: 1px solid #d7dde8;

}

.hero-panel { border: 1px solid #d7dde8; border-radius: 6px; padding: 24px; background: #f7fbfd; margin-bottom: 18px; }

.eyebrow { color: #48606f; font-size: 13px; font-weight: 700; text-transform: uppercase; letter-spacing: .04em; }

.hero-panel h1 { font-size: 32px; line-height: 1.14; margin: 8px 0 10px; color: #18232f; }

.lede { font-size: 17px; max-width: 860px; color: #344554; }

.claim-path { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(210px, 1fr)); gap: 10px; margin-top: 18px; }

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.viz-card p { color: #415160; margin-top: 0; }

.wide { grid-column: 1 / -1; }

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.bar-label, .share-label { display: flex; justify-content: space-between; gap: 12px; font-size: 14px; margin-bottom: 4px; }

.bar-track { height: 14px; background: #eceff3; border-radius: 4px; overflow: hidden; }

.bar-fill { height: 100%; border-radius: 4px; }

.fill-nuclear { background: #12719e; }

.fill-control { background: #ca5800; }

.fill-population { background: #408941; }

.fill-airport { background: #af1f6b; }

.fill-baseline { background: #696969; }

.fill-gap { background: #e88e2d; }

.takeaway { margin-top: 12px; padding: 10px 12px; background: #f4f6f8; border-left: 4px solid #696969; color: #25313c; }

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.infra-detail { color: #25313c; font-size: 13px; }

.infra-claim-grid { display: grid; grid-template-columns: repeat(auto-fit, minmax(260px, 1fr)); gap: 10px; }

.infra-claim-grid div { background: #fbfcff; border: 1px solid #d7dde8; border-radius: 6px; padding: 12px; }

.infra-claim-grid ul { margin: 8px 0 0; padding-left: 18px; color: #40515f; }

@media (prefers-color-scheme: dark) {

  .gradio-container {

    background: #f3f6fa !important;

    color: #18232f !important;

  }

  .hero-panel, .score-card, .viz-card, .claim-box, .claim-grid div {

    background-color: #ffffff !important;

    color: #18232f !important;

  }

}

@media (max-width: 760px) { .visual-grid { grid-template-columns: 1fr; } .hero-panel h1 { font-size: 26px; } }

"""


with gr.Blocks(css=css, title="Nuclear UAP Evidence Surface", theme=gr.themes.Soft()) as demo:
    gr.HTML(visual_story_html())
    gr.HTML(public_infrastructure_html())
    gr.HTML(score_cards())
    with gr.Tabs():
        with gr.Tab("Claim Boundaries"):
            gr.Markdown(overview_markdown())
        with gr.Tab("Explore Places"):
            with gr.Row():
                place_state = gr.Dropdown(choices=state_choices(), value="All", label="State")
                min_events = gr.Slider(0, 100, value=10, step=1, label="Minimum report rows")
                place_sort = gr.Radio(["Report count", "Per-capita rate"], value="Report count", label="Sort")
            place_table = gr.Dataframe(value=filter_places("All", 10, "Report count"), interactive=False, wrap=True)
            for control in (place_state, min_events, place_sort):
                control.change(filter_places, [place_state, min_events, place_sort], place_table)
        with gr.Tab("Explore Event Rows"):
            with gr.Row():
                event_state = gr.Dropdown(choices=state_choices(), value="All", label="State")
                event_bin = gr.Dropdown(choices=population_bins(), value="All", label="Population bin")
                airport_filter = gr.Radio(["Any", "Within 10 miles", "Within 25 miles", "Beyond 50 miles"], value="Any", label="Major airport proximity")
                sample_rows = gr.Slider(25, 500, value=100, step=25, label="Rows")
            event_table = gr.Dataframe(value=filter_events("All", "All", "Any", 100), interactive=False, wrap=True)
            for control in (event_state, event_bin, airport_filter, sample_rows):
                control.change(filter_events, [event_state, event_bin, airport_filter, sample_rows], event_table)
        with gr.Tab("Missing Geocodes"):
            bucket = gr.Dropdown(choices=bucket_choices(), value="All", label="Gap bucket")
            missing_table = gr.Dataframe(value=filter_missing("All"), interactive=False, wrap=True)
            bucket.change(filter_missing, bucket, missing_table)
        with gr.Tab("Military / NNSA Layer"):
            infra_layer = gr.Dropdown(
                choices=[
                    "All",
                    "public_military_installation",
                    "public_nuclear_security_enterprise",
                ],
                value="All",
                label="Public infrastructure layer",
            )
            infra_table = gr.Dataframe(value=filter_public_infrastructure("All"), interactive=False, wrap=True)
            infra_layer.change(filter_public_infrastructure, infra_layer, infra_table)
        with gr.Tab("Downloads & Receipts"):
            gr.Markdown("Download the reduced analytical tables, source receipts, hashes, and manifest. These exports do not include raw witness summaries.")
            gr.File(value=download_files(), file_count="multiple", label="Dataset files")


if __name__ == "__main__":
    server_port = int(os.environ.get("GRADIO_SERVER_PORT", "7860"))
    server_name = os.environ.get("GRADIO_SERVER_NAME") or None
    demo.launch(server_name=server_name, server_port=server_port)