output/v2_hedging.json

{
  "Aviation": {
    "industry_zh": "航空",
    "exposure": 50.0,
    "elasticity": 0.35,
    "recommended_ratio": 0.9500000000000001,
    "recommended_ratio_pct": "95%",
    "recommended_tool": "futures",
    "rationale": "当前风险高、偏置上行、预测波动率3.8%。建议对冲95%暴露。上行偏置明显，期货锁价直接锁定成本。",
    "matrix": [
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "0%",
        "downside_impact": -2.26,
        "base_impact": -0.35,
        "upside_impact": 3.3,
        "worst_case": -2.26,
        "best_case": 3.3,
        "range": 5.56
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.25,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "25%",
        "downside_impact": -1.72,
        "base_impact": -0.29,
        "upside_impact": 2.45,
        "worst_case": -1.72,
        "best_case": 2.45,
        "range": 4.17
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.5,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "50%",
        "downside_impact": -1.18,
        "base_impact": -0.22,
        "upside_impact": 1.6,
        "worst_case": -1.18,
        "best_case": 1.6,
        "range": 2.78
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.75,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "75%",
        "downside_impact": -0.64,
        "base_impact": -0.16,
        "upside_impact": 0.75,
        "worst_case": -0.64,
        "best_case": 0.75,
        "range": 1.39
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 1.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "100%",
        "downside_impact": -0.1,
        "base_impact": -0.1,
        "upside_impact": -0.1,
        "worst_case": -0.1,
        "best_case": -0.1,
        "range": 0.0
      }
    ],
    "tool_comparison": [
      {
        "tool": "futures",
        "tool_zh": "期货锁价",
        "monthly_cost": 0.1,
        "annualized_cost": 1.14,
        "cost_pct": 0.2
      },
      {
        "tool": "put",
        "tool_zh": "看跌期权",
        "monthly_cost": 0.38,
        "annualized_cost": 4.56,
        "cost_pct": 0.8
      },
      {
        "tool": "collar",
        "tool_zh": "零成本领",
        "monthly_cost": 0.14,
        "annualized_cost": 1.71,
        "cost_pct": 0.3
      }
    ]
  },
  "Logistics": {
    "industry_zh": "物流",
    "exposure": 15.0,
    "elasticity": 0.22,
    "recommended_ratio": 0.9,
    "recommended_ratio_pct": "90%",
    "recommended_tool": "futures",
    "rationale": "当前风险高、偏置上行、预测波动率3.8%。建议对冲90%暴露。上行偏置明显，期货锁价直接锁定成本。",
    "matrix": [
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "0%",
        "downside_impact": -0.43,
        "base_impact": -0.07,
        "upside_impact": 0.62,
        "worst_case": -0.43,
        "best_case": 0.62,
        "range": 1.05
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.25,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "25%",
        "downside_impact": -0.33,
        "base_impact": -0.06,
        "upside_impact": 0.46,
        "worst_case": -0.33,
        "best_case": 0.46,
        "range": 0.79
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.5,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "50%",
        "downside_impact": -0.23,
        "base_impact": -0.05,
        "upside_impact": 0.3,
        "worst_case": -0.23,
        "best_case": 0.3,
        "range": 0.53
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.75,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "75%",
        "downside_impact": -0.13,
        "base_impact": -0.04,
        "upside_impact": 0.13,
        "worst_case": -0.13,
        "best_case": 0.13,
        "range": 0.26
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 1.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "100%",
        "downside_impact": -0.03,
        "base_impact": -0.03,
        "upside_impact": -0.03,
        "worst_case": -0.03,
        "best_case": -0.03,
        "range": 0.0
      }
    ],
    "tool_comparison": [
      {
        "tool": "futures",
        "tool_zh": "期货锁价",
        "monthly_cost": 0.03,
        "annualized_cost": 0.32,
        "cost_pct": 0.2
      },
      {
        "tool": "put",
        "tool_zh": "看跌期权",
        "monthly_cost": 0.11,
        "annualized_cost": 1.3,
        "cost_pct": 0.8
      },
      {
        "tool": "collar",
        "tool_zh": "零成本领",
        "monthly_cost": 0.04,
        "annualized_cost": 0.49,
        "cost_pct": 0.3
      }
    ]
  },
  "Chemicals": {
    "industry_zh": "化工",
    "exposure": 30.0,
    "elasticity": 0.28,
    "recommended_ratio": 0.9,
    "recommended_ratio_pct": "90%",
    "recommended_tool": "futures",
    "rationale": "当前风险高、偏置上行、预测波动率3.8%。建议对冲90%暴露。上行偏置明显，期货锁价直接锁定成本。",
    "matrix": [
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "0%",
        "downside_impact": -1.08,
        "base_impact": -0.17,
        "upside_impact": 1.59,
        "worst_case": -1.08,
        "best_case": 1.59,
        "range": 2.67
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.25,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "25%",
        "downside_impact": -0.83,
        "base_impact": -0.14,
        "upside_impact": 1.17,
        "worst_case": -0.83,
        "best_case": 1.17,
        "range": 2.0
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.5,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "50%",
        "downside_impact": -0.57,
        "base_impact": -0.11,
        "upside_impact": 0.76,
        "worst_case": -0.57,
        "best_case": 0.76,
        "range": 1.33
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.75,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "75%",
        "downside_impact": -0.32,
        "base_impact": -0.09,
        "upside_impact": 0.35,
        "worst_case": -0.32,
        "best_case": 0.35,
        "range": 0.67
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 1.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "100%",
        "downside_impact": -0.06,
        "base_impact": -0.06,
        "upside_impact": -0.06,
        "worst_case": -0.06,
        "best_case": -0.06,
        "range": 0.0
      }
    ],
    "tool_comparison": [
      {
        "tool": "futures",
        "tool_zh": "期货锁价",
        "monthly_cost": 0.05,
        "annualized_cost": 0.65,
        "cost_pct": 0.2
      },
      {
        "tool": "put",
        "tool_zh": "看跌期权",
        "monthly_cost": 0.22,
        "annualized_cost": 2.59,
        "cost_pct": 0.8
      },
      {
        "tool": "collar",
        "tool_zh": "零成本领",
        "monthly_cost": 0.08,
        "annualized_cost": 0.97,
        "cost_pct": 0.3
      }
    ]
  },
  "Manufacturing": {
    "industry_zh": "制造",
    "exposure": 8.0,
    "elasticity": 0.12,
    "recommended_ratio": 0.9,
    "recommended_ratio_pct": "90%",
    "recommended_tool": "futures",
    "rationale": "当前风险高、偏置上行、预测波动率3.8%。建议对冲90%暴露。上行偏置明显，期货锁价直接锁定成本。",
    "matrix": [
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "0%",
        "downside_impact": -0.12,
        "base_impact": -0.02,
        "upside_impact": 0.18,
        "worst_case": -0.12,
        "best_case": 0.18,
        "range": 0.3
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.25,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "25%",
        "downside_impact": -0.1,
        "base_impact": -0.02,
        "upside_impact": 0.13,
        "worst_case": -0.1,
        "best_case": 0.13,
        "range": 0.23
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.5,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "50%",
        "downside_impact": -0.07,
        "base_impact": -0.02,
        "upside_impact": 0.08,
        "worst_case": -0.07,
        "best_case": 0.08,
        "range": 0.15
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.75,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "75%",
        "downside_impact": -0.04,
        "base_impact": -0.02,
        "upside_impact": 0.03,
        "worst_case": -0.04,
        "best_case": 0.03,
        "range": 0.07
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 1.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "100%",
        "downside_impact": -0.02,
        "base_impact": -0.02,
        "upside_impact": -0.02,
        "worst_case": -0.02,
        "best_case": -0.02,
        "range": 0.0
      }
    ],
    "tool_comparison": [
      {
        "tool": "futures",
        "tool_zh": "期货锁价",
        "monthly_cost": 0.01,
        "annualized_cost": 0.17,
        "cost_pct": 0.2
      },
      {
        "tool": "put",
        "tool_zh": "看跌期权",
        "monthly_cost": 0.06,
        "annualized_cost": 0.69,
        "cost_pct": 0.8
      },
      {
        "tool": "collar",
        "tool_zh": "零成本领",
        "monthly_cost": 0.02,
        "annualized_cost": 0.26,
        "cost_pct": 0.3
      }
    ]
  },
  "Upstream_OG": {
    "industry_zh": "上游油气",
    "exposure": 80.0,
    "elasticity": -0.6,
    "recommended_ratio": 0.8,
    "recommended_ratio_pct": "80%",
    "recommended_tool": "futures",
    "rationale": "当前风险高、偏置上行、预测波动率3.8%。建议对冲80%暴露。低波动环境，简单期货锁价成本最低。",
    "matrix": [
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "0%",
        "downside_impact": -6.19,
        "base_impact": -0.96,
        "upside_impact": 9.06,
        "worst_case": -6.19,
        "best_case": 9.06,
        "range": 15.25
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.25,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "25%",
        "downside_impact": -4.6,
        "base_impact": -0.68,
        "upside_impact": 6.84,
        "worst_case": -4.6,
        "best_case": 6.84,
        "range": 11.44
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.5,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "50%",
        "downside_impact": -3.01,
        "base_impact": -0.4,
        "upside_impact": 4.61,
        "worst_case": -3.01,
        "best_case": 4.61,
        "range": 7.62
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 0.75,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "75%",
        "downside_impact": -1.43,
        "base_impact": -0.12,
        "upside_impact": 2.39,
        "worst_case": -1.43,
        "best_case": 2.39,
        "range": 3.82
      },
      {
        "hedge_ratio": 1.0,
        "hedge_ratio_pct": "100%",
        "downside_impact": 0.16,
        "base_impact": 0.16,
        "upside_impact": 0.16,
        "worst_case": 0.16,
        "best_case": 0.16,
        "range": 0.0
      }
    ],
    "tool_comparison": [
      {
        "tool": "futures",
        "tool_zh": "期货锁价",
        "monthly_cost": 0.13,
        "annualized_cost": 1.54,
        "cost_pct": 0.2
      },
      {
        "tool": "put",
        "tool_zh": "看跌期权",
        "monthly_cost": 0.51,
        "annualized_cost": 6.14,
        "cost_pct": 0.8
      },
      {
        "tool": "collar",
        "tool_zh": "零成本领",
        "monthly_cost": 0.19,
        "annualized_cost": 2.3,
        "cost_pct": 0.3
      }
    ]
  }
}