File size: 16,295 Bytes
a33aae2
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152
153
154
155
156
157
158
159
160
161
162
163
164
165
166
167
168
169
170
171
172
173
174
175
176
177
178
179
180
181
182
183
184
185
186
187
188
189
190
191
192
193
194
195
196
197
198
199
200
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
208
209
210
211
212
213
214
215
216
217
218
219
220
221
222
223
224
225
226
227
228
229
230
231
232
233
234
235
236
237
238
239
240
241
242
243
244
245
246
247
248
249
250
251
252
253
254
255
256
257
258
259
260
261
262
263
264
265
266
267
268
269
270
271
272
273
274
275
276
277
278
279
280
281
282
283
284
285
286
287
288
289
290
291
292
293
294
295
296
297
298
299
300
301
302
303
304
305
306
307
308
309
310
311
312
313
314
315
316
317
318
319
320
321
322
323
324
325
326
327
328
329
330
331
332
333
334
335
336
337
338
339
340
341
342
343
344
345
346
347
348
349
350
351
352
353
354
355
356
357
358
359
360
361
"""
SynthAudit.Env β€” Procedural Patient & Protocol Generator
=========================================================
Ported from Round 1's dataset_generator.py with modifications for
the multi-agent oversight architecture.

Generates seeded, protocol-driven clinical trial datasets where:
  - Each episode has unique protocol rules (age bounds, treatment windows)
  - Adversarial traps create boundary cases that test oversight reasoning
  - Comorbidity overrides create 2-hop reasoning requirements
  - Selection bias signals test fairness detection
"""

from __future__ import annotations

import hashlib
import random
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from typing import Optional


HOSPITAL_SITES = [
    ("Metro General Hospital", "US"),
    ("Cleveland Oncology Institute", "US"),
    ("Howard University Hospital", "US"),
    ("Johns Hopkins Oncology Center", "US"),
    ("MD Anderson Cancer Center", "US"),
    ("AIIMS Delhi", "India"),
    ("Tata Memorial Hospital", "India"),
    ("Charite Berlin", "Germany"),
    ("Hospital Clinic Barcelona", "Spain"),
    ("Tokyo Medical University", "Japan"),
    ("Seoul National University Hospital", "South Korea"),
    ("Royal Marsden Hospital", "UK"),
]

RURAL_SITES = {"AIIMS Delhi", "Howard University Hospital", "Tata Memorial Hospital"}

ETHNICITIES = ["White", "Black", "Hispanic", "Asian", "Native American", "Pacific Islander"]
GENDERS = ["M", "F"]
STAGES = ["I", "II", "III", "IV"]
DRUGS = ["ImmunoVax-7", "OncoShield-X", "TargetCure-3"]

INSURANCE_TYPES = ["Private", "Medicare", "Medicaid", "Government", "Self-Pay"]
SMOKING_STATUS = ["Never", "Former", "Current", "Unknown"]
PRIMARY_SITES = ["Breast", "Lung", "Colon", "Prostate", "Ovarian", "Pancreatic"]
HISTOLOGY_TYPES = ["Adenocarcinoma", "Squamous cell", "Large cell", "Small cell", "Ductal"]

TRIAL_START = datetime(2022, 6, 1)
TRIAL_END = datetime(2025, 3, 1)

BASE_STAGE_MORTALITY = {"I": 0.04, "II": 0.08, "III": 0.16, "IV": 0.32}

AGE_RULESETS = {
    "easy": [(35, 75), (40, 80), (45, 85)],
    "medium": [(18, 75), (21, 80), (30, 85), (40, 90)],
    "hard": [(18, 75), (21, 80), (30, 85), (35, 85), (40, 90)],
}

WINDOW_RULESETS = {
    "easy": [21, 24, 28],
    "medium": [18, 21, 24, 28],
    "hard": [14, 18, 21, 24],
}


class PatientGenerator:
    """Seeded procedural generator for clinical trial patients and protocols."""

    def __init__(self, seed: Optional[int] = None):
        self.seed = seed
        self.rng = random.Random(seed)
        self._patient_counter = 0
        self._ground_truth: dict[str, list[str]] = {}
        self._traps: set[str] = set()

    def _next_pid(self) -> str:
        self._patient_counter += 1
        return f"P{self._patient_counter:04d}"

    def _mark_error(self, patient_id: str, error_type: str) -> None:
        self._ground_truth.setdefault(patient_id, []).append(error_type)

    def _random_date(self, start: datetime, end: datetime) -> datetime:
        delta = (end - start).days
        if delta <= 0:
            return start
        return start + timedelta(days=self.rng.randint(0, delta))

    # ─── Protocol Generation ─────────────────────────────────────

    def build_protocol(self, difficulty: str) -> dict:
        """Generate a unique protocol with episode-specific rules."""
        age_min, age_max = self.rng.choice(AGE_RULESETS.get(difficulty, AGE_RULESETS["medium"]))
        treatment_window = self.rng.choice(WINDOW_RULESETS.get(difficulty, WINDOW_RULESETS["medium"]))
        stage_iv_window = treatment_window + self.rng.choice([7, 10, 14])
        comorbidity_threshold = self.rng.choice([3, 4]) if difficulty == "hard" else 99
        high_risk_sites = self.rng.sample(sorted(RURAL_SITES), k=2 if difficulty == "hard" else 1)
        bias_present = difficulty == "hard" and self.rng.random() < 0.58

        protocol_key = f"{difficulty}|{age_min}|{age_max}|{treatment_window}|{bias_present}"
        protocol_id = hashlib.sha1(protocol_key.encode()).hexdigest()[:8].upper()
        protocol_title = f"ONCO-AX-{difficulty[0].upper()}{protocol_id}"

        lines = [
            f"TRIAL PROTOCOL EXCERPT β€” {protocol_title}",
            "",
            "Eligibility",
            f"- Participants must be age {age_min}-{age_max} inclusive on enrollment.",
            "- Missing age is a protocol violation.",
            "",
            "Treatment Scheduling",
            f"- Treatment must begin within {treatment_window} days of enrollment.",
            f"- Stage IV exception: treatment may begin within {stage_iv_window} days.",
        ]

        if difficulty == "hard":
            lines.append(
                f"- IMPORTANT: Stage IV exception does NOT apply to patients with "
                f"comorbidity_index > {comorbidity_threshold}. They revert to the "
                f"standard {treatment_window}-day window."
            )

        lines.extend([
            "",
            "Temporal Constraints",
            "- death_date must never precede treatment_start.",
            "- Do not assume a generic 18-120 range; this excerpt overrides defaults.",
        ])

        if difficulty == "hard":
            dominant_threshold = self.rng.choice([0.68, 0.70, 0.72])
            male_threshold = self.rng.choice([0.56, 0.60, 0.63])
            adjusted_gap = self.rng.choice([0.12, 0.15, 0.18])
            lines.extend([
                "",
                "Equity Review",
                "- Selection bias concerns control-arm composition, not treatment-arm skew.",
                "- Compare mortality within stage strata before escalating a bias concern.",
                f"- Escalate bias only when control-arm dominance exceeds "
                f"{int(dominant_threshold * 100)}%, male share exceeds "
                f"{int(male_threshold * 100)}%, and stage-adjusted mortality gap "
                f"exceeds {int(adjusted_gap * 100)} percentage points.",
            ])
        else:
            dominant_threshold = 0.0
            male_threshold = 0.0
            adjusted_gap = 0.0

        return {
            "protocol_id": protocol_id,
            "protocol_title": protocol_title,
            "excerpt": "\n".join(lines),
            "age_min": age_min,
            "age_max": age_max,
            "treatment_window_days": treatment_window,
            "stage_iv_treatment_window_days": stage_iv_window,
            "comorbidity_override_threshold": comorbidity_threshold,
            "high_risk_sites": high_risk_sites,
            "bias_present": bias_present,
            "dominant_threshold": dominant_threshold,
            "male_threshold": male_threshold,
            "adjusted_gap": adjusted_gap,
        }

    # ─── Patient Generation ──────────────────────────────────────

    def _generate_age(self, protocol: dict) -> int:
        while True:
            age = int(self.rng.gauss(58, 11))
            if protocol["age_min"] <= age <= protocol["age_max"]:
                return age

    def _select_ethnicity(self, bias_mode: str = "neutral") -> str:
        if bias_mode == "white_dominant":
            weights = [0.68, 0.08, 0.08, 0.08, 0.05, 0.03]
        elif bias_mode == "diverse":
            weights = [0.28, 0.19, 0.20, 0.18, 0.10, 0.05]
        else:
            weights = [0.50, 0.16, 0.15, 0.12, 0.04, 0.03]
        return self.rng.choices(ETHNICITIES, weights=weights, k=1)[0]

    def _base_delay(self, stage: str, protocol: dict) -> int:
        max_window = (
            protocol["stage_iv_treatment_window_days"]
            if stage == "IV"
            else protocol["treatment_window_days"]
        )
        return self.rng.randint(5, max(6, max_window - 2))

    def generate_patient(self, group: str, protocol: dict, bias_mode: str = "neutral") -> dict:
        """Generate a single clean patient record."""
        pid = self._next_pid()
        site, country = self.rng.choice(HOSPITAL_SITES)
        stage = self.rng.choices(STAGES, weights=[0.24, 0.28, 0.28, 0.20], k=1)[0]
        age = self._generate_age(protocol)
        enrollment_date = self._random_date(TRIAL_START, TRIAL_END - timedelta(days=150))
        treatment_start = enrollment_date + timedelta(days=self._base_delay(stage, protocol))
        comorbidity = self.rng.choices([0, 1, 1, 2, 2, 2, 3, 3, 4, 5, 6], k=1)[0]

        return {
            "patient_id": pid,
            "age": age,
            "gender": self.rng.choice(GENDERS),
            "ethnicity": self._select_ethnicity(bias_mode),
            "group": group,
            "stage": stage,
            "enrollment_date": enrollment_date.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
            "treatment_start": treatment_start.strftime("%Y-%m-%d"),
            "death_date": None,
            "outcome": "survived",
            "treatment_site": site,
            "country": country,
            "drug": self.rng.choice(DRUGS) if group == "treatment" else "Placebo",
            "comorbidity_index": comorbidity,
            "ecog_performance_status": self.rng.choices([0, 0, 1, 1, 1, 2, 2, 3], k=1)[0],
            "prior_chemo_cycles": self.rng.choices([0, 0, 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6], k=1)[0],
            "baseline_ldh": round(self.rng.gauss(210, 60), 1),
            "bmi": round(max(14.0, self.rng.gauss(26, 5)), 1),
            "insurance_type": self.rng.choice(INSURANCE_TYPES),
            "smoking_status": self.rng.choice(SMOKING_STATUS),
            "primary_tumor_site": self.rng.choice(PRIMARY_SITES),
            "histology_type": self.rng.choice(HISTOLOGY_TYPES),
        }

    def _apply_mortality(self, patient: dict, protocol: dict) -> None:
        rate = BASE_STAGE_MORTALITY.get(patient["stage"], 0.10)
        if patient["treatment_site"] in protocol["high_risk_sites"] and patient["stage"] == "IV":
            rate += 0.16
        if patient["group"] == "treatment":
            rate *= 0.92
        if self.rng.random() < rate:
            ts = datetime.strptime(patient["treatment_start"], "%Y-%m-%d")
            death = ts + timedelta(days=self.rng.randint(3, 540))
            patient["death_date"] = death.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
            patient["outcome"] = "deceased"

    def _allowed_window(self, patient: dict, protocol: dict) -> int:
        threshold = protocol.get("comorbidity_override_threshold", 99)
        if patient.get("stage") == "IV" and patient.get("comorbidity_index", 0) <= threshold:
            return protocol["stage_iv_treatment_window_days"]
        return protocol["treatment_window_days"]

    # ─── Error Injection ─────────────────────────────────────────

    def inject_age_errors(self, patients: list[dict], protocol: dict, count: int = 4) -> list[str]:
        """Inject invalid ages. Returns list of affected patient IDs."""
        available = [p for p in patients if p["patient_id"] not in self._ground_truth]
        self.rng.shuffle(available)
        affected = []
        low_vals = [protocol["age_min"] - 1, protocol["age_min"] - 2, -1, 0]
        high_vals = [protocol["age_max"] + 1, protocol["age_max"] + 5, 999]

        for p in available[:count]:
            p["age"] = self.rng.choice(low_vals + high_vals)
            self._mark_error(p["patient_id"], "invalid_age")
            affected.append(p["patient_id"])

        # Also inject 1-2 missing ages
        for p in available[count:count + 2]:
            if p["patient_id"] not in self._ground_truth:
                p["age"] = None
                self._mark_error(p["patient_id"], "invalid_age")
                affected.append(p["patient_id"])

        return affected

    def inject_temporal_errors(self, patients: list[dict], count: int = 3) -> list[str]:
        """death_date before treatment_start."""
        candidates = [p for p in patients if p["patient_id"] not in self._ground_truth]
        self.rng.shuffle(candidates)
        affected = []
        for p in candidates[:count]:
            ts = datetime.strptime(p["treatment_start"], "%Y-%m-%d")
            death = ts - timedelta(days=self.rng.randint(10, 240))
            p["death_date"] = death.strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
            p["outcome"] = "deceased"
            self._mark_error(p["patient_id"], "temporal_inconsistency")
            affected.append(p["patient_id"])
        return affected

    def inject_window_errors(self, patients: list[dict], protocol: dict, count: int = 3) -> list[str]:
        """Treatment started too late for protocol window."""
        candidates = [p for p in patients if p["patient_id"] not in self._ground_truth]
        self.rng.shuffle(candidates)
        affected = []
        for p in candidates[:count]:
            window = self._allowed_window(p, protocol)
            enroll = datetime.strptime(p["enrollment_date"], "%Y-%m-%d")
            overshoot = self.rng.randint(window + 1, window + 30)
            p["treatment_start"] = (enroll + timedelta(days=overshoot)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
            self._mark_error(p["patient_id"], "protocol_window_violation")
            affected.append(p["patient_id"])
        return affected

    def inject_comorbidity_overrides(self, patients: list[dict], protocol: dict, count: int = 3) -> list[str]:
        """Stage IV patients with high comorbidity whose window should NOT be extended."""
        if protocol["comorbidity_override_threshold"] >= 99:
            return []
        stage_iv = [
            p for p in patients
            if p.get("stage") == "IV"
            and p["patient_id"] not in self._ground_truth
            and p.get("comorbidity_index", 0) > protocol["comorbidity_override_threshold"]
        ]
        self.rng.shuffle(stage_iv)
        affected = []
        for p in stage_iv[:count]:
            enroll = datetime.strptime(p["enrollment_date"], "%Y-%m-%d")
            base_window = protocol["treatment_window_days"]
            overshoot = self.rng.randint(base_window + 1, base_window + 15)
            p["treatment_start"] = (enroll + timedelta(days=overshoot)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d")
            self._mark_error(p["patient_id"], "comorbidity_override_miss")
            affected.append(p["patient_id"])
        return affected

    # ─── Full Episode Generation ─────────────────────────────────

    def generate_episode(self, difficulty: str = "medium", n_patients: int = 60) -> dict:
        """Generate a complete episode with patients, protocol, and ground truth errors."""
        self._patient_counter = 0
        self._ground_truth = {}
        self._traps = set()

        protocol = self.build_protocol(difficulty)

        # Generate base patients
        patients = []
        for i in range(n_patients):
            group = "treatment" if i < n_patients // 2 else "control"
            bias_mode = "white_dominant" if protocol["bias_present"] and group == "control" else "neutral"
            p = self.generate_patient(group, protocol, bias_mode)
            self._apply_mortality(p, protocol)
            patients.append(p)

        # Inject errors based on difficulty
        error_config = {
            "easy": {"age": 4, "temporal": 0, "window": 0, "comorbidity": 0},
            "medium": {"age": 5, "temporal": 3, "window": 3, "comorbidity": 0},
            "hard": {"age": 5, "temporal": 3, "window": 4, "comorbidity": 3},
        }
        cfg = error_config.get(difficulty, error_config["medium"])

        self.inject_age_errors(patients, protocol, cfg["age"])
        if cfg["temporal"] > 0:
            self.inject_temporal_errors(patients, cfg["temporal"])
        if cfg["window"] > 0:
            self.inject_window_errors(patients, protocol, cfg["window"])
        if cfg["comorbidity"] > 0:
            self.inject_comorbidity_overrides(patients, protocol, cfg["comorbidity"])

        self.rng.shuffle(patients)

        return {
            "protocol": protocol,
            "patients": patients,
            "ground_truth": dict(self._ground_truth),
            "total_errors": sum(len(v) for v in self._ground_truth.values()),
            "error_patients": list(self._ground_truth.keys()),
        }