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Update app.py
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app.py
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#!/usr/bin/env python3
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"""
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"""
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import os
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import
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import numpy as np
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import pandas as pd
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import torch
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import torch.nn as nn
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import torch.nn.functional as F
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from torch.optim import Adam
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import
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from
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from scipy import stats
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from scipy.
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import requests
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warnings.filterwarnings('ignore')
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#
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logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO)
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logger = logging.getLogger(
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# Hugging Face Inference API配置
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HF_API_URL = "https://api-inference.huggingface.co/models/"
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# 使用免费的开源模型
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AVAILABLE_MODELS = {
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"Qwen/Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct": "通义千问2.5",
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"mistralai/Mistral-7B-Instruct-v0.1": "Mistral 7B",
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"microsoft/Phi-3.5-mini-instruct": "Phi-3.5",
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"google/flan-t5-large": "FLAN-T5"
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}
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class Config:
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"""配置类"""
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TEMP_DIR = Path("/tmp/hk_analysis")
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MODELS_DIR = TEMP_DIR / "models"
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DATA_DIR = TEMP_DIR / "data"
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MAX_FILE_SIZE = 50 * 1024 * 1024 # 50MB
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# 数学原理配置
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FIBER_BUNDLE_DIM = 16
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CAUSAL_LAG = 5
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XPINNS_SUBDOMAINS = 4
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def __init__(self):
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config = Config()
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class FiberBundleTheory:
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return np.array([vix_squared, rv])
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def compute_vrp(self, base_point):
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"""计算方差风险溢价"""
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vix_squared, rv = base_point
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return vix_squared - rv
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class NoiseExplorer:
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def
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X = np.vstack([rv_series, np.ones_like(rv_series)]).T
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try:
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coef, _, _, _ = np.linalg.lstsq(X, vix2_series, rcond=None)
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a, b = coef[0], coef[1]
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preds = a * rv_series + b
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resid = vix2_series - preds
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return {
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'a': float(a), 'b': float(b),
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'preds': preds, 'resid': resid
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}
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except Exception as e:
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return None
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def resid_stats(self, resid):
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# 基本残差统计:均值、方差、自相关(lag1)、能量谱(简单FFT)
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mean = float(np.mean(resid))
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var = float(np.var(resid))
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if len(resid) > 2
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except:
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dominant_freq = 0.0
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return {'mean':mean, 'var':var, 'ac1':ac1, 'dominant_freq':dominant_freq}
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def explore(self, df, vix2_col=None, rv_col=None):
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# 自动寻找列名
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numeric = df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns.tolist()
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if vix2_col is None or rv_col is None:
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vix_col = None
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rv_col_local = None
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for c in numeric:
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if 'vix' in c.lower():
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vix_col = c
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if 'rv' in c.lower() or 'realized' in c.lower():
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rv_col_local = c
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if vix_col is None or rv_col_local is None:
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# 退回到前两列
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if len(numeric) >= 2:
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vix_col, rv_col_local = numeric[0], numeric[1]
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else:
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return None
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vix2_col, rv_col = vix_col, rv_col_local
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vix2 = df[vix2_col].fillna(method='ffill').values
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rv = df[rv_col].fillna(method='ffill').values
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reg = self.regress_vix2_vs_rv(vix2, rv)
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stats = self.resid_stats(reg['resid'])
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vrp_series = vix2 - reg['preds']
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# 返回摘要
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return {
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'vix2_col': vix2_col,
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'rv_col': rv_col,
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'
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'resid_stats':
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'vrp_mean': float(np.mean(
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'vrp_std': float(np.std(
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'vrp_series':
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'
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'residuals': reg['resid']
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}
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"""
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nn.Linear(2, 32),
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nn.ReLU(),
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nn.Linear(32, fiber_dim)
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)
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self.to(self.device)
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def forward(self, x):
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z = self.encoder(x)
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recon = self.decoder(z)
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return z, recon
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def learn_section(self, base_points):
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"""
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"""
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"""
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"""
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返回路径 (Nsteps+1, 2)
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"""
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if seed is not None:
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np.random.seed(seed)
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class
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"""
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def __init__(self, in_features, out_features):
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super().__init__()
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self.linear = nn.Linear(in_features, out_features)
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self.norm = nn.LayerNorm(out_features)
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# 初始化为正交矩阵保持等变性
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nn.init.orthogonal_(self.linear.weight)
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def forward(self, x, rotation_matrix=None):
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"""保持群等变性的前向传播"""
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if rotation_matrix is not None:
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# 应用旋转变换
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x = torch.matmul(x, rotation_matrix.T)
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x = self.linear(x)
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x = self.norm(x)
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return F.relu(x)
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class XPINNsGenerator(nn.Module):
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"""扩展物理信息神经网络生成器"""
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def __init__(self, input_dim=64, hidden_dim=128, output_dim=64, num_subdomains=4):
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super().__init__()
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self.num_subdomains = num_subdomains
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# 子域网络
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self.subdomain_nets = nn.ModuleList([
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nn.Sequential(
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EquivariantLayer(input_dim, hidden_dim),
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EquivariantLayer(hidden_dim, hidden_dim),
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EquivariantLayer(hidden_dim, output_dim)
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) for _ in range(num_subdomains)
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])
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# 路由网络
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self.router = nn.Sequential(
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nn.Linear(input_dim, num_subdomains),
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nn.Softmax(dim=-1)
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# 融合网络
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self.fusion = nn.Sequential(
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nn.Linear(output_dim * num_subdomains, hidden_dim),
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nn.ReLU(),
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nn.Linear(hidden_dim, output_dim)
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)
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# 李雅普诺夫稳定性网络
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self.stability_net = nn.Sequential(
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nn.Linear(output_dim, 32),
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nn.ReLU(),
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nn.Linear(32, 1),
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nn.Sigmoid()
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def forward(self, x):
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batch_size = x.shape[0]
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# 路由到子域
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routing_weights = self.router(x)
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# 各子域处理
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subdomain_outputs = []
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for i, subnet in enumerate(self.subdomain_nets):
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weight = routing_weights[:, i:i+1]
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output = subnet(x * weight)
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subdomain_outputs.append(output)
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# 融合输出
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concat_output = torch.cat(subdomain_outputs, dim=-1)
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fused = self.fusion(concat_output)
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# 计算稳定性分数
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stability = self.stability_net(fused)
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return {
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'output': fused,
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'routing_weights': routing_weights,
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'stability_score': stability
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}
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return None
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 377 |
try:
|
| 378 |
-
|
| 379 |
-
|
| 380 |
-
|
| 381 |
-
|
| 382 |
-
|
| 383 |
-
|
| 384 |
-
|
| 385 |
-
return {
|
| 386 |
-
'coefficients': self.coefficients,
|
| 387 |
-
'eigenvalues': eigenvalues,
|
| 388 |
-
'is_stable': np.max(np.abs(eigenvalues)) < 1.0
|
| 389 |
-
}
|
| 390 |
-
except:
|
| 391 |
-
return None
|
| 392 |
-
|
| 393 |
-
def _build_companion_matrix(self, n_vars):
|
| 394 |
-
"""构建伴随矩阵"""
|
| 395 |
-
dim = n_vars * self.max_lag
|
| 396 |
-
companion = np.zeros((dim, dim))
|
| 397 |
-
|
| 398 |
-
if self.coefficients is not None:
|
| 399 |
-
# 填充系数
|
| 400 |
-
companion[:n_vars, :] = self.coefficients.T
|
| 401 |
-
# 填充单位矩阵
|
| 402 |
-
if self.max_lag > 1:
|
| 403 |
-
companion[n_vars:, :-n_vars] = np.eye(dim - n_vars)
|
| 404 |
-
|
| 405 |
-
return companion
|
| 406 |
-
|
| 407 |
-
class MathematicalTrainer:
|
| 408 |
-
"""数学原理驱动的训练器"""
|
| 409 |
-
|
| 410 |
-
def __init__(self, device='cpu'):
|
| 411 |
-
self.device = device
|
| 412 |
-
self.fiber_bundle = FiberBundleTheory(fiber_dim=config.FIBER_BUNDLE_DIM)
|
| 413 |
-
self.causal_var = CausalVAR(max_lag=config.CAUSAL_LAG)
|
| 414 |
-
self.model = XPINNsGenerator()
|
| 415 |
-
self.optimizer = Adam(self.model.parameters(), lr=0.001)
|
| 416 |
-
self.scaler = StandardScaler()
|
| 417 |
-
# 新增:
|
| 418 |
-
self.noise_explorer = NoiseExplorer()
|
| 419 |
-
self.embedder = None # lazy init
|
| 420 |
-
self.gradient_dynamics = GradientDynamics(eta=0.5, sigma=0.02, device=device)
|
| 421 |
-
|
| 422 |
-
def prepare_data(self, df):
|
| 423 |
-
"""准备训练数据"""
|
| 424 |
-
# 提取数值列
|
| 425 |
-
numeric_cols = df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns
|
| 426 |
-
if len(numeric_cols) == 0:
|
| 427 |
-
return None, None, None
|
| 428 |
-
|
| 429 |
-
data = df[numeric_cols].fillna(0).values
|
| 430 |
-
|
| 431 |
-
# 因果分析
|
| 432 |
-
causal_result = self.causal_var.fit(data)
|
| 433 |
-
|
| 434 |
-
# 特征工程
|
| 435 |
-
features = []
|
| 436 |
-
targets = []
|
| 437 |
-
window_size = 10
|
| 438 |
-
|
| 439 |
-
for i in range(len(data) - window_size):
|
| 440 |
-
window = data[i:i+window_size]
|
| 441 |
-
|
| 442 |
-
# 投影到纤维丛基空间
|
| 443 |
-
base_features = []
|
| 444 |
-
for row in window:
|
| 445 |
-
base_point = self.fiber_bundle.project_to_base(row)
|
| 446 |
-
vrp = self.fiber_bundle.compute_vrp(base_point)
|
| 447 |
-
base_features.extend([base_point[0], base_point[1], vrp])
|
| 448 |
-
|
| 449 |
-
# 展平特征
|
| 450 |
-
feature_vector = np.array(base_features).flatten()
|
| 451 |
-
|
| 452 |
-
# 填充到固定维度
|
| 453 |
-
if len(feature_vector) < 64:
|
| 454 |
-
feature_vector = np.pad(feature_vector, (0, 64 - len(feature_vector)))
|
| 455 |
-
elif len(feature_vector) > 64:
|
| 456 |
-
feature_vector = feature_vector[:64]
|
| 457 |
-
|
| 458 |
-
features.append(feature_vector)
|
| 459 |
-
targets.append(data[i+window_size, 0]) # 预测第一列
|
| 460 |
-
|
| 461 |
-
if len(features) == 0:
|
| 462 |
-
return None, None, None
|
| 463 |
-
|
| 464 |
-
X = np.array(features)
|
| 465 |
-
y = np.array(targets).reshape(-1, 1)
|
| 466 |
-
|
| 467 |
-
# 标准化
|
| 468 |
-
X = self.scaler.fit_transform(X)
|
| 469 |
-
|
| 470 |
-
return torch.FloatTensor(X), torch.FloatTensor(y), causal_result
|
| 471 |
-
|
| 472 |
-
def train(self, X, y, epochs=100):
|
| 473 |
-
"""训练模型"""
|
| 474 |
-
if X is None or y is None:
|
| 475 |
return None
|
| 476 |
-
|
| 477 |
-
dataset = torch.utils.data.TensorDataset(X, y)
|
| 478 |
-
loader = torch.utils.data.DataLoader(dataset, batch_size=32, shuffle=True)
|
| 479 |
-
|
| 480 |
-
losses = []
|
| 481 |
-
|
| 482 |
-
for epoch in range(epochs):
|
| 483 |
-
epoch_loss = 0
|
| 484 |
-
for batch_x, batch_y in loader:
|
| 485 |
-
self.optimizer.zero_grad()
|
| 486 |
-
|
| 487 |
-
# 前向传播
|
| 488 |
-
outputs = self.model(batch_x)
|
| 489 |
-
|
| 490 |
-
# 计算损失
|
| 491 |
-
pred_loss = F.mse_loss(outputs['output'][:, 0:1], batch_y)
|
| 492 |
-
stability_loss = torch.mean((1 - outputs['stability_score'])**2)
|
| 493 |
-
|
| 494 |
-
total_loss = pred_loss + 0.1 * stability_loss
|
| 495 |
-
|
| 496 |
-
# 反向传播
|
| 497 |
-
total_loss.backward()
|
| 498 |
-
self.optimizer.step()
|
| 499 |
-
|
| 500 |
-
epoch_loss += total_loss.item()
|
| 501 |
-
|
| 502 |
-
avg_loss = epoch_loss / len(loader)
|
| 503 |
-
losses.append(avg_loss)
|
| 504 |
-
|
| 505 |
-
if epoch % 20 == 0:
|
| 506 |
-
logger.info(f"Epoch {epoch}: Loss = {avg_loss:.6f}")
|
| 507 |
-
|
| 508 |
-
return losses
|
| 509 |
-
|
| 510 |
-
# ---------- 新增:嵌入器训练接口 ----------
|
| 511 |
-
def init_embedder(self, input_dim=64):
|
| 512 |
-
if self.embedder is None:
|
| 513 |
-
self.embedder = WhitneyEmbedder(input_dim=input_dim, fiber_dim=self.fiber_bundle.fiber_dim, device=self.device)
|
| 514 |
-
|
| 515 |
-
def train_embedding(self, X_np, epochs=100, lr=1e-3):
|
| 516 |
-
"""
|
| 517 |
-
训练 autoencoder,X_np: numpy array (N, input_dim)
|
| 518 |
-
"""
|
| 519 |
-
self.init_embedder(input_dim=X_np.shape[1])
|
| 520 |
-
model = self.embedder
|
| 521 |
-
opt = Adam(model.parameters(), lr=lr)
|
| 522 |
-
X = torch.tensor(X_np, dtype=torch.float32, device=self.device)
|
| 523 |
-
for epoch in range(epochs):
|
| 524 |
-
opt.zero_grad()
|
| 525 |
-
z, recon = model(X)
|
| 526 |
-
loss = F.mse_loss(recon, X) # 重构损失
|
| 527 |
-
loss.backward()
|
| 528 |
-
opt.step()
|
| 529 |
-
if epoch % 20 == 0:
|
| 530 |
-
logger.info(f"[Embedder] Epoch {epoch}, recon loss {loss.item():.6f}")
|
| 531 |
-
return loss.item()
|
| 532 |
-
|
| 533 |
-
def explore_noise(self, df, vix2_col=None, rv_col=None):
|
| 534 |
-
return self.noise_explorer.explore(df, vix2_col=vix2_col, rv_col=rv_col)
|
| 535 |
-
|
| 536 |
-
def simulate_gradient_flow(self, initial_base_point, T=1.0, dt=0.01):
|
| 537 |
-
return self.gradient_dynamics.simulate_flow(initial_base_point, T=T, dt=dt)
|
| 538 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 539 |
class LLMInterface:
|
| 540 |
-
|
| 541 |
-
|
| 542 |
-
|
| 543 |
-
self.
|
| 544 |
-
|
| 545 |
-
|
| 546 |
-
|
| 547 |
-
"""
|
| 548 |
-
headers = {"Content-Type": "application/json"}
|
| 549 |
-
|
| 550 |
-
payload = {
|
| 551 |
-
"inputs": prompt,
|
| 552 |
-
"parameters": {
|
| 553 |
-
"max_new_tokens": max_length,
|
| 554 |
-
"temperature": 0.3,
|
| 555 |
-
"top_p": 0.9,
|
| 556 |
-
"do_sample": True
|
| 557 |
-
}
|
| 558 |
-
}
|
| 559 |
-
|
| 560 |
try:
|
| 561 |
-
|
| 562 |
-
if
|
| 563 |
-
|
| 564 |
-
if isinstance(
|
| 565 |
-
return
|
| 566 |
-
return str(
|
| 567 |
else:
|
| 568 |
-
return f"
|
| 569 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 570 |
-
return f"
|
| 571 |
-
|
| 572 |
-
def
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 573 |
"""
|
| 574 |
-
|
| 575 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 576 |
"""
|
| 577 |
-
|
| 578 |
-
|
| 579 |
-
|
| 580 |
-
|
| 581 |
-
|
| 582 |
-
|
| 583 |
-
|
| 584 |
-
|
| 585 |
-
|
| 586 |
-
|
| 587 |
-
|
| 588 |
-
|
| 589 |
-
|
| 590 |
-
|
| 591 |
-
|
| 592 |
-
|
| 593 |
-
|
| 594 |
-
|
| 595 |
-
|
| 596 |
-
|
| 597 |
-
|
| 598 |
-
|
| 599 |
-
|
| 600 |
-
|
| 601 |
-
|
| 602 |
-
|
| 603 |
-
|
| 604 |
-
{
|
| 605 |
-
|
| 606 |
-
|
| 607 |
-
|
| 608 |
-
|
| 609 |
-
|
| 610 |
-
|
| 611 |
-
|
| 612 |
-
|
| 613 |
-
|
| 614 |
-
|
| 615 |
-
|
| 616 |
-
|
| 617 |
-
|
| 618 |
-
""
|
| 619 |
-
|
| 620 |
-
|
| 621 |
-
|
| 622 |
-
|
| 623 |
-
|
| 624 |
-
|
| 625 |
-
|
| 626 |
-
|
| 627 |
-
|
| 628 |
-
|
| 629 |
-
|
| 630 |
-
|
| 631 |
-
|
| 632 |
-
|
| 633 |
-
|
| 634 |
-
fallback = "LLM不可用,返回内置伪代码模板。\n\n" + self._pseudocode_template(strategy_spec)
|
| 635 |
-
return fallback
|
| 636 |
-
return llm_resp
|
| 637 |
-
|
| 638 |
-
class TradingPlatform:
|
| 639 |
-
"""主交易平台"""
|
| 640 |
-
|
| 641 |
-
def __init__(self, device='cpu'):
|
| 642 |
-
self.trainer = MathematicalTrainer(device=device)
|
| 643 |
self.llm = LLMInterface()
|
| 644 |
self.current_data = None
|
| 645 |
self.analysis_results = {}
|
| 646 |
-
|
| 647 |
-
|
| 648 |
-
|
| 649 |
if file is None:
|
| 650 |
-
return "请上传
|
| 651 |
-
|
| 652 |
try:
|
| 653 |
-
|
| 654 |
-
|
| 655 |
-
df = pd.read_csv(file.name)
|
| 656 |
-
elif file.name.endswith(('.xlsx', '.xls')):
|
| 657 |
-
df = pd.read_excel(file.name)
|
| 658 |
else:
|
| 659 |
-
|
| 660 |
-
|
| 661 |
-
self.current_data = df
|
| 662 |
-
|
| 663 |
-
# 数据摘要
|
| 664 |
-
summary = f"""数据集信息:
|
| 665 |
-
- 行数: {len(df)}
|
| 666 |
-
- 列数: {len(df.columns)}
|
| 667 |
-
- 数值列: {list(df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns)}
|
| 668 |
-
- 缺失值比例: {(df.isnull().sum().sum() / (len(df) * len(df.columns)) * 100):.2f}%"""
|
| 669 |
-
|
| 670 |
-
# 准备训练数据
|
| 671 |
-
X, y, causal_result = self.trainer.prepare_data(df)
|
| 672 |
-
|
| 673 |
-
if X is not None:
|
| 674 |
-
# 分析结果
|
| 675 |
-
self.analysis_results = {
|
| 676 |
-
'data_shape': X.shape,
|
| 677 |
-
'causal_stable': causal_result['is_stable'] if causal_result else False,
|
| 678 |
-
'vrp': self.trainer.fiber_bundle.compute_vrp([1.0, 0.8]),
|
| 679 |
-
'lyapunov_stable': True if causal_result and causal_result['is_stable'] else False,
|
| 680 |
-
'fiber_projection': 'Complete'
|
| 681 |
-
}
|
| 682 |
-
|
| 683 |
-
analysis = f"""数学分析完成:
|
| 684 |
-
- 因果VAR稳定性: {'稳定' if self.analysis_results['causal_stable'] else '不稳定'}
|
| 685 |
-
- VRP计算: {self.analysis_results['vrp']:.4f}
|
| 686 |
-
- 数据维度: {self.analysis_results['data_shape']}
|
| 687 |
-
- Whitney嵌入因子: {self.trainer.fiber_bundle.whitney_factor}"""
|
| 688 |
-
else:
|
| 689 |
-
analysis = "数据不足或格式错误,无法进行数学分析"
|
| 690 |
-
|
| 691 |
-
return summary, analysis, "数据处理成功"
|
| 692 |
-
|
| 693 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 694 |
-
return f"
|
| 695 |
-
|
| 696 |
-
|
| 697 |
-
""
|
| 698 |
-
|
| 699 |
-
return "请先上传数据", None
|
| 700 |
-
|
| 701 |
try:
|
| 702 |
-
|
| 703 |
-
|
| 704 |
-
if X is None:
|
| 705 |
-
return "数据准备失败", None
|
| 706 |
-
|
| 707 |
-
# 训练
|
| 708 |
-
losses = self.trainer.train(X, y, epochs)
|
| 709 |
-
|
| 710 |
-
# 绘制损失曲线
|
| 711 |
-
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 712 |
-
fig, ax = plt.subplots(figsize=(10, 6))
|
| 713 |
-
ax.plot(losses)
|
| 714 |
-
ax.set_xlabel('Epoch')
|
| 715 |
-
ax.set_ylabel('Loss')
|
| 716 |
-
ax.set_title('XPINNs Training Loss')
|
| 717 |
-
ax.grid(True)
|
| 718 |
-
|
| 719 |
-
result = f"""训练完成:
|
| 720 |
-
- 最终损失: {losses[-1]:.6f}
|
| 721 |
-
- 训练轮数: {epochs}
|
| 722 |
-
- 子域数量: {config.XPINNS_SUBDOMAINS}
|
| 723 |
-
- 因果滞后阶数: {config.CAUSAL_LAG}"""
|
| 724 |
-
|
| 725 |
-
return result, fig
|
| 726 |
-
|
| 727 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 728 |
-
|
| 729 |
-
|
| 730 |
-
|
| 731 |
-
|
| 732 |
-
if
|
| 733 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 734 |
try:
|
| 735 |
-
|
| 736 |
-
|
| 737 |
-
|
| 738 |
-
|
| 739 |
-
return
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 740 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 741 |
-
return f"
|
| 742 |
-
|
| 743 |
-
|
| 744 |
-
|
| 745 |
if self.current_data is None:
|
| 746 |
-
return "请先上传数据"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 747 |
try:
|
| 748 |
-
|
| 749 |
-
|
| 750 |
-
if X is None:
|
| 751 |
-
return "数据不足以训练嵌入", None
|
| 752 |
-
X_np = X.numpy()
|
| 753 |
-
final_loss = self.trainer.train_embedding(X_np, epochs=epochs)
|
| 754 |
-
return f"嵌入训练完成, 最终重构损失 {final_loss:.6f}", None
|
| 755 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 756 |
-
return f"
|
| 757 |
-
|
| 758 |
-
def
|
| 759 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 760 |
try:
|
| 761 |
-
|
| 762 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 763 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 764 |
-
return f"
|
| 765 |
-
|
| 766 |
-
|
| 767 |
-
|
| 768 |
-
if
|
| 769 |
-
return "请先上传
|
| 770 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 771 |
try:
|
| 772 |
-
|
| 773 |
-
|
| 774 |
-
if self.current_data is not None:
|
| 775 |
-
numeric_cols = self.current_data.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns
|
| 776 |
-
if len(numeric_cols) > 0:
|
| 777 |
-
latest_data = self.current_data[numeric_cols].tail(20).describe()
|
| 778 |
-
market_summary = latest_data.to_string()
|
| 779 |
-
|
| 780 |
-
# 合并用户问题
|
| 781 |
-
full_prompt = f"{user_question}\n\n当前分析结果:{json.dumps(self.analysis_results, indent=2)}\n\n市场数据:{market_summary}"
|
| 782 |
-
|
| 783 |
-
# 更新llm模型(可选)
|
| 784 |
-
if model_name:
|
| 785 |
-
self.llm = LLMInterface(model_name)
|
| 786 |
-
|
| 787 |
-
# 获取LLM回复
|
| 788 |
-
response = self.llm.analyze_trading(self.analysis_results, full_prompt, intraday=intraday, generate_pseudocode=generate_pseudocode)
|
| 789 |
-
|
| 790 |
-
return response
|
| 791 |
-
|
| 792 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 793 |
-
return f"
|
| 794 |
-
|
| 795 |
-
#
|
| 796 |
-
def
|
| 797 |
-
|
| 798 |
-
|
| 799 |
-
|
| 800 |
-
|
| 801 |
-
|
| 802 |
-
|
| 803 |
-
|
| 804 |
-
|
| 805 |
-
|
| 806 |
-
|
| 807 |
-
|
| 808 |
-
|
| 809 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
| 810 |
with gr.Tabs():
|
| 811 |
-
|
| 812 |
-
with gr.TabItem("📁 数据上传与分析"):
|
| 813 |
-
with gr.Row():
|
| 814 |
-
with gr.Column(scale=1):
|
| 815 |
-
file_input = gr.File(
|
| 816 |
-
label="上传数据文件 (CSV/Excel)",
|
| 817 |
-
file_types=[".csv", ".xlsx", ".xls"]
|
| 818 |
-
)
|
| 819 |
-
upload_btn = gr.Button("分析数据", variant="primary")
|
| 820 |
-
|
| 821 |
-
with gr.Column(scale=2):
|
| 822 |
-
data_summary = gr.Textbox(
|
| 823 |
-
label="数据摘要",
|
| 824 |
-
lines=6,
|
| 825 |
-
interactive=False
|
| 826 |
-
)
|
| 827 |
-
analysis_result = gr.Textbox(
|
| 828 |
-
label="数学分析结果",
|
| 829 |
-
lines=6,
|
| 830 |
-
interactive=False
|
| 831 |
-
)
|
| 832 |
-
status_text = gr.Textbox(
|
| 833 |
-
label="状态",
|
| 834 |
-
interactive=False
|
| 835 |
-
)
|
| 836 |
-
|
| 837 |
-
upload_btn.click(
|
| 838 |
-
platform.process_upload,
|
| 839 |
-
inputs=[file_input],
|
| 840 |
-
outputs=[data_summary, analysis_result, status_text]
|
| 841 |
-
)
|
| 842 |
-
|
| 843 |
-
# 噪声探索与嵌入训练
|
| 844 |
-
with gr.TabItem("🔍 噪声探索 & 嵌入"):
|
| 845 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 846 |
-
|
| 847 |
-
|
| 848 |
-
|
| 849 |
-
|
| 850 |
-
|
| 851 |
-
|
| 852 |
-
|
| 853 |
-
|
| 854 |
-
with gr.Column():
|
| 855 |
-
embed_plot = gr.Plot(label="嵌入(可视化)", visible=False)
|
| 856 |
-
|
| 857 |
-
noise_btn.click(platform.run_noise_exploration, inputs=[], outputs=[noise_summary, noise_details])
|
| 858 |
-
embed_btn.click(platform.train_embedding, inputs=[embed_epochs], outputs=[embed_status, embed_plot])
|
| 859 |
-
|
| 860 |
-
# 模型训练标签
|
| 861 |
-
with gr.TabItem("🧮 XPINNs模型训练"):
|
| 862 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 863 |
-
|
| 864 |
-
|
| 865 |
-
|
| 866 |
-
|
| 867 |
-
|
| 868 |
-
|
| 869 |
-
label="训练轮数"
|
| 870 |
-
)
|
| 871 |
-
train_btn = gr.Button("开始训练", variant="primary")
|
| 872 |
-
training_result = gr.Textbox(
|
| 873 |
-
label="训练结果",
|
| 874 |
-
lines=8,
|
| 875 |
-
interactive=False
|
| 876 |
-
)
|
| 877 |
-
|
| 878 |
-
with gr.Column():
|
| 879 |
-
loss_plot = gr.Plot(label="训练损失曲线")
|
| 880 |
-
|
| 881 |
-
train_btn.click(
|
| 882 |
-
platform.train_model,
|
| 883 |
-
inputs=[epochs_slider],
|
| 884 |
-
outputs=[training_result, loss_plot]
|
| 885 |
-
)
|
| 886 |
-
|
| 887 |
-
# 交易策略标签
|
| 888 |
-
with gr.TabItem("💹 智能交易策略"):
|
| 889 |
-
gr.Markdown("""
|
| 890 |
-
### 基于数学原理的交易策略生成(扩展)
|
| 891 |
-
|
| 892 |
-
系统将结合:
|
| 893 |
-
- 纤维丛投影的市场状态
|
| 894 |
-
- 因果VAR的动态关系
|
| 895 |
-
- 梯度动力学的演化模拟
|
| 896 |
-
- LLM智能推理(可输出伪代码)
|
| 897 |
-
""")
|
| 898 |
-
|
| 899 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 900 |
-
|
| 901 |
-
|
| 902 |
-
|
| 903 |
-
choices=list(AVAILABLE_MODELS.keys()),
|
| 904 |
-
value="Qwen/Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct",
|
| 905 |
-
label="选择LLM模型"
|
| 906 |
-
)
|
| 907 |
-
|
| 908 |
-
user_input = gr.Textbox(
|
| 909 |
-
label="交易问题",
|
| 910 |
-
placeholder="例如:基于当前分析,今天的日内策略如何构造?请给出伪代码。",
|
| 911 |
-
lines=3
|
| 912 |
-
)
|
| 913 |
-
|
| 914 |
-
intraday_check = gr.Checkbox(label="日内策略 (intraday)", value=True)
|
| 915 |
-
pseudocode_check = gr.Checkbox(label="生成伪代码", value=True)
|
| 916 |
-
strategy_btn = gr.Button("生成策略", variant="primary")
|
| 917 |
-
|
| 918 |
-
with gr.Column():
|
| 919 |
-
strategy_output = gr.Textbox(
|
| 920 |
-
label="AI交易策略建议",
|
| 921 |
-
lines=20,
|
| 922 |
-
interactive=False
|
| 923 |
-
)
|
| 924 |
-
|
| 925 |
-
def update_llm_model(model_name):
|
| 926 |
-
platform.llm = LLMInterface(model_name)
|
| 927 |
-
return f"已切换到 {AVAILABLE_MODELS.get(model_name, model_name)}"
|
| 928 |
-
|
| 929 |
-
model_dropdown.change(
|
| 930 |
-
update_llm_model,
|
| 931 |
-
inputs=[model_dropdown],
|
| 932 |
-
outputs=[gr.Textbox(visible=False)]
|
| 933 |
-
)
|
| 934 |
-
|
| 935 |
-
strategy_btn.click(
|
| 936 |
-
platform.get_trading_strategy,
|
| 937 |
-
inputs=[user_input, intraday_check, pseudocode_check, model_dropdown],
|
| 938 |
-
outputs=[strategy_output]
|
| 939 |
-
)
|
| 940 |
-
|
| 941 |
-
# 梯度动力学模拟
|
| 942 |
-
with gr.TabItem("⚙️ 梯度动力学模拟"):
|
| 943 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 944 |
-
|
| 945 |
-
|
| 946 |
-
|
| 947 |
-
|
| 948 |
-
|
| 949 |
-
|
| 950 |
-
|
| 951 |
-
|
| 952 |
-
|
| 953 |
-
|
| 954 |
-
|
| 955 |
-
|
| 956 |
-
|
| 957 |
-
|
| 958 |
-
)
|
| 959 |
-
|
| 960 |
-
|
| 961 |
-
|
| 962 |
-
gr.
|
| 963 |
-
|
| 964 |
-
|
| 965 |
-
|
| 966 |
-
|
| 967 |
-
|
| 968 |
-
""")
|
| 969 |
-
|
| 970 |
-
|
| 971 |
-
|
| 972 |
-
|
| 973 |
-
|
| 974 |
-
|
| 975 |
-
|
| 976 |
-
|
| 977 |
-
|
| 978 |
-
|
| 979 |
-
|
| 980 |
-
|
| 981 |
-
|
| 982 |
-
|
| 983 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 984 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 985 |
-
|
| 986 |
-
|
| 987 |
-
|
| 988 |
-
server_name="0.0.0.0",
|
| 989 |
-
server_port=7860,
|
| 990 |
-
share=False
|
| 991 |
-
)
|
|
|
|
| 1 |
#!/usr/bin/env python3
|
| 2 |
+
# -*- coding: utf-8 -*-
|
| 3 |
"""
|
| 4 |
+
升级版 app.py — 高精度数值 / 高性能统计 + 精细化 LLM 策略输出
|
| 5 |
+
功能亮点:
|
| 6 |
+
- Crank–Nicolson PDE(Black–Scholes)
|
| 7 |
+
- Monte Carlo:Antithetic + Control variates(使用 BS 解析作为控制变量)
|
| 8 |
+
- GARCH(1,1) 使用 arch (若可用)或 MLE minimize 回退
|
| 9 |
+
- Johansen 协整检验(statsmodels 若可用)
|
| 10 |
+
- 组合优化使用 cvxpy(若可用)或 SciPy 回退
|
| 11 |
+
- LLM 生成结构化 JSON 策略(策略说明、信号、伪代码、回测/风险提示)
|
| 12 |
+
- 保持之前的几何/Whitney/Noise/Gradient 模块兼容
|
| 13 |
"""
|
| 14 |
|
| 15 |
import os
|
| 16 |
+
import json
|
| 17 |
+
import warnings
|
| 18 |
+
warnings.filterwarnings("ignore")
|
| 19 |
+
|
| 20 |
+
from pathlib import Path
|
| 21 |
+
from datetime import datetime
|
| 22 |
+
from typing import Any, Dict, Optional, Tuple, List
|
| 23 |
+
|
| 24 |
import numpy as np
|
| 25 |
import pandas as pd
|
| 26 |
+
import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
|
| 27 |
+
|
| 28 |
+
# torch used for embedding / potential LSTM
|
| 29 |
import torch
|
| 30 |
import torch.nn as nn
|
| 31 |
import torch.nn.functional as F
|
| 32 |
from torch.optim import Adam
|
| 33 |
+
|
| 34 |
+
# statsmodels optional
|
| 35 |
+
try:
|
| 36 |
+
import statsmodels.api as sm
|
| 37 |
+
from statsmodels.tsa.vector_ar.vecm import coint_johansen
|
| 38 |
+
from statsmodels.tsa.api import VAR
|
| 39 |
+
STATS_MODELS_AVAILABLE = True
|
| 40 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 41 |
+
STATS_MODELS_AVAILABLE = False
|
| 42 |
+
|
| 43 |
+
# arch package (GARCH) optional
|
| 44 |
+
try:
|
| 45 |
+
from arch import arch_model
|
| 46 |
+
ARCH_AVAILABLE = True
|
| 47 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 48 |
+
ARCH_AVAILABLE = False
|
| 49 |
+
|
| 50 |
+
# cvxpy for portfolio optimization optional
|
| 51 |
+
try:
|
| 52 |
+
import cvxpy as cp
|
| 53 |
+
CVXPY_AVAILABLE = True
|
| 54 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 55 |
+
CVXPY_AVAILABLE = False
|
| 56 |
+
|
| 57 |
+
# scipy fallback utilities
|
| 58 |
from scipy import stats
|
| 59 |
+
from scipy.optimize import minimize
|
| 60 |
+
from scipy.linalg import toeplitz
|
| 61 |
+
|
| 62 |
+
# HTTP for LLM
|
| 63 |
import requests
|
|
|
|
| 64 |
|
| 65 |
+
# Gradio UI
|
| 66 |
+
import gradio as gr
|
| 67 |
+
|
| 68 |
+
# Logging
|
| 69 |
+
import logging
|
| 70 |
logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO)
|
| 71 |
+
logger = logging.getLogger("quant_upgraded")
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 72 |
|
| 73 |
+
# base dir
|
| 74 |
+
BASE_DIR = Path("/tmp/quant_upgraded")
|
| 75 |
+
BASE_DIR.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
|
| 76 |
+
|
| 77 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 78 |
+
# Configuration
|
| 79 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 80 |
class Config:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 81 |
def __init__(self):
|
| 82 |
+
self.device = 'cpu'
|
| 83 |
+
if torch.cuda.is_available():
|
| 84 |
+
self.device = 'cuda'
|
| 85 |
+
self.hf_token = os.getenv("HF_API_TOKEN", "")
|
| 86 |
+
self.hf_default_model = "Qwen/Qwen2.5-1.5B-Instruct"
|
| 87 |
+
self.mc_default_paths = 20000
|
| 88 |
+
self.cv_solver = "cvxpy" if CVXPY_AVAILABLE else "scipy"
|
| 89 |
+
self.statsmodels = STATS_MODELS_AVAILABLE
|
| 90 |
+
self.arch = ARCH_AVAILABLE
|
| 91 |
|
| 92 |
config = Config()
|
| 93 |
|
| 94 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 95 |
+
# Geometry / existing modules (compact)
|
| 96 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 97 |
class FiberBundleTheory:
|
| 98 |
+
def __init__(self, fiber_dim=16):
|
| 99 |
+
self.fiber_dim = fiber_dim
|
| 100 |
+
self.whitney_factor = 2 * fiber_dim
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
def project_to_base(self, x: np.ndarray) -> np.ndarray:
|
| 103 |
+
x = np.asarray(x).ravel()
|
| 104 |
+
if len(x) < self.fiber_dim:
|
| 105 |
+
x = np.pad(x, (0, self.fiber_dim - len(x)))
|
| 106 |
+
half = self.fiber_dim // 2
|
| 107 |
+
vix2 = float(np.sum(x[:half]**2) / (half + 1e-12))
|
| 108 |
+
rv = float(np.std(x[half:]))
|
| 109 |
+
return np.array([vix2, rv])
|
| 110 |
+
|
| 111 |
+
def compute_vrp(self, base_point: np.ndarray) -> float:
|
| 112 |
+
vix2, rv = base_point
|
| 113 |
+
return vix2 - rv
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 114 |
|
| 115 |
class NoiseExplorer:
|
| 116 |
+
def regress_vix2_vs_rv(self, vix2: np.ndarray, rv: np.ndarray):
|
| 117 |
+
X = np.vstack([rv, np.ones_like(rv)]).T
|
| 118 |
+
coef, *_ = np.linalg.lstsq(X, vix2, rcond=None)
|
| 119 |
+
a, b = float(coef[0]), float(coef[1])
|
| 120 |
+
preds = a * rv + b
|
| 121 |
+
resid = vix2 - preds
|
| 122 |
+
return {'a': a, 'b': b, 'preds': preds, 'resid': resid}
|
| 123 |
+
|
| 124 |
+
def resid_stats(self, resid: np.ndarray):
|
| 125 |
+
resid = np.asarray(resid)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 126 |
mean = float(np.mean(resid))
|
| 127 |
var = float(np.var(resid))
|
| 128 |
+
ac1 = float(np.corrcoef(resid[:-1], resid[1:])[0,1]) if len(resid) > 2 else 0.0
|
| 129 |
+
fft = np.fft.rfft(resid - mean)
|
| 130 |
+
freqs = np.fft.rfftfreq(len(resid))
|
| 131 |
+
power = np.abs(fft)**2
|
| 132 |
+
dominant_freq = float(freqs[np.argmax(power[1:])+1]) if len(power) > 1 else 0.0
|
| 133 |
+
return {'mean': mean, 'var': var, 'ac1': ac1, 'dominant_freq': dominant_freq}
|
| 134 |
+
|
| 135 |
+
def explore(self, df: pd.DataFrame, vix2_col: Optional[str]=None, rv_col: Optional[str]=None):
|
| 136 |
+
numcols = df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns.tolist()
|
| 137 |
+
if not numcols:
|
| 138 |
+
return None
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|
| 139 |
if vix2_col is None or rv_col is None:
|
| 140 |
+
vix2_col = numcols[0]
|
| 141 |
+
rv_col = numcols[1] if len(numcols) > 1 else numcols[0]
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| 142 |
vix2 = df[vix2_col].fillna(method='ffill').values
|
| 143 |
rv = df[rv_col].fillna(method='ffill').values
|
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|
| 144 |
reg = self.regress_vix2_vs_rv(vix2, rv)
|
| 145 |
+
st = self.resid_stats(reg['resid'])
|
| 146 |
+
vrp = vix2 - reg['preds']
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|
| 147 |
return {
|
| 148 |
'vix2_col': vix2_col,
|
| 149 |
'rv_col': rv_col,
|
| 150 |
+
'reg': {'a': reg['a'], 'b': reg['b']},
|
| 151 |
+
'resid_stats': st,
|
| 152 |
+
'vrp_mean': float(np.mean(vrp)),
|
| 153 |
+
'vrp_std': float(np.std(vrp)),
|
| 154 |
+
'vrp_series': vrp.tolist(),
|
| 155 |
+
'residuals': reg['resid'].tolist()
|
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|
| 156 |
}
|
| 157 |
|
| 158 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 159 |
+
# Quant modules (upgraded)
|
| 160 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 161 |
+
|
| 162 |
+
class StochasticModels:
|
| 163 |
+
"""High-precision stochastic processes and pricing helpers."""
|
| 164 |
+
|
| 165 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 166 |
+
def bs_price(S: float, K: float, r: float, q: float, sigma: float, T: float, option_type: str='call') -> float:
|
| 167 |
+
"""Black-Scholes closed-form price (with dividend yield q)."""
|
| 168 |
+
S, K, r, q, sigma, T = map(float, (S, K, r, q, sigma, T))
|
| 169 |
+
if T <= 0 or sigma <= 0:
|
| 170 |
+
return float(max(S - K, 0.0) if option_type == 'call' else max(K - S, 0.0))
|
| 171 |
+
d1 = (np.log(S / K) + (r - q + 0.5 * sigma**2) * T) / (sigma * np.sqrt(T))
|
| 172 |
+
d2 = d1 - sigma * np.sqrt(T)
|
| 173 |
+
if option_type == 'call':
|
| 174 |
+
price = S * np.exp(-q * T) * stats.norm.cdf(d1) - K * np.exp(-r * T) * stats.norm.cdf(d2)
|
| 175 |
+
else:
|
| 176 |
+
price = K * np.exp(-r * T) * stats.norm.cdf(-d2) - S * np.exp(-q * T) * stats.norm.cdf(-d1)
|
| 177 |
+
return float(price)
|
| 178 |
+
|
| 179 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 180 |
+
def heston_simulate(S0: float, v0: float, r: float, kappa: float, theta: float, xi: float, rho: float, T: float,
|
| 181 |
+
n_steps: int=252, n_paths: int=2000, seed: Optional[int]=None):
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|
| 182 |
"""
|
| 183 |
+
Euler-Maruyama with full-reflection for variance (CIR-like) — more stable by forcing v>=0.
|
| 184 |
+
Keep path count moderate unless GPU simulation used externally.
|
| 185 |
"""
|
| 186 |
+
if seed is not None:
|
| 187 |
+
np.random.seed(seed)
|
| 188 |
+
dt = T / n_steps
|
| 189 |
+
S = np.zeros((n_paths, n_steps+1))
|
| 190 |
+
v = np.zeros((n_paths, n_steps+1))
|
| 191 |
+
S[:,0] = S0
|
| 192 |
+
v[:,0] = v0
|
| 193 |
+
for t in range(n_steps):
|
| 194 |
+
z1 = np.random.randn(n_paths)
|
| 195 |
+
z2 = np.random.randn(n_paths)
|
| 196 |
+
w1 = z1
|
| 197 |
+
w2 = rho * z1 + np.sqrt(max(0.0, 1 - rho**2)) * z2
|
| 198 |
+
v_prev = np.maximum(v[:,t], 0.0)
|
| 199 |
+
# full truncation Euler
|
| 200 |
+
dv = kappa * (theta - v_prev) * dt + xi * np.sqrt(v_prev * dt) * w2
|
| 201 |
+
v_new = np.maximum(v_prev + dv, 1e-8)
|
| 202 |
+
dS = r * S[:,t] * dt + np.sqrt(v_prev * dt) * S[:,t] * w1
|
| 203 |
+
S[:,t+1] = S[:,t] + dS
|
| 204 |
+
v[:,t+1] = v_new
|
| 205 |
+
return S, v
|
| 206 |
+
|
| 207 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 208 |
+
def merton_jump_diffusion(S0: float, mu: float, sigma: float, lamb: float, mu_j: float, sigma_j: float,
|
| 209 |
+
T: float, n_steps: int=252, n_paths: int=2000, seed: Optional[int]=None):
|
| 210 |
+
"""Improved Merton simulator with vectorized operations."""
|
| 211 |
+
if seed is not None:
|
| 212 |
+
np.random.seed(seed)
|
| 213 |
+
dt = T / n_steps
|
| 214 |
+
S = np.full((n_paths, n_steps+1), S0, dtype=float)
|
| 215 |
+
for t in range(n_steps):
|
| 216 |
+
z = np.random.randn(n_paths)
|
| 217 |
+
pois = np.random.poisson(lamb * dt, size=n_paths)
|
| 218 |
+
jumps = np.exp(mu_j + sigma_j * np.random.randn(n_paths)) - 1.0
|
| 219 |
+
S[:, t+1] = S[:, t] * (1 + mu*dt + sigma*np.sqrt(dt)*z) + S[:, t] * (jumps * pois)
|
| 220 |
+
S[:, t+1] = np.maximum(S[:, t+1], 1e-8)
|
| 221 |
+
return S
|
| 222 |
+
|
| 223 |
+
class NumericalMethods:
|
| 224 |
+
"""Crank-Nicolson PDE + Monte Carlo with variance reduction."""
|
| 225 |
+
|
| 226 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 227 |
+
def bs_crank_nicolson(S0: float, K: float, r: float, q: float, sigma: float, T: float,
|
| 228 |
+
Smax_mult: float=3.0, M: int=400, N: int=400, option_type: str='call') -> float:
|
| 229 |
"""
|
| 230 |
+
Crank-Nicolson solver for Black-Scholes PDE. More stable with sufficient grid resolution.
|
| 231 |
+
M: number of asset steps, N: time steps.
|
| 232 |
"""
|
| 233 |
+
Smax = S0 * Smax_mult
|
| 234 |
+
dS = Smax / M
|
| 235 |
+
dt = T / N
|
| 236 |
+
grid = np.zeros((M+1, N+1))
|
| 237 |
+
Svals = np.linspace(0, Smax, M+1)
|
| 238 |
+
# terminal condition
|
| 239 |
+
if option_type == 'call':
|
| 240 |
+
grid[:, -1] = np.maximum(Svals - K, 0)
|
| 241 |
+
else:
|
| 242 |
+
grid[:, -1] = np.maximum(K - Svals, 0)
|
| 243 |
+
# boundary conditions
|
| 244 |
+
grid[0, :] = 0.0 if option_type == 'call' else K * np.exp(-r * (T - np.linspace(0, T, N+1)))
|
| 245 |
+
grid[-1, :] = (Smax - K * np.exp(-r * (T - np.linspace(0, T, N+1)))) if option_type == 'call' else 0.0
|
| 246 |
+
# prepare tridiagonal coefficients
|
| 247 |
+
j = np.arange(1, M)
|
| 248 |
+
a = 0.25 * dt * (sigma**2 * j**2 - (r - q) * j)
|
| 249 |
+
b = -0.5 * dt * (sigma**2 * j**2 + r)
|
| 250 |
+
c = 0.25 * dt * (sigma**2 * j**2 + (r - q) * j)
|
| 251 |
+
# construct A and B matrices (tridiagonal)
|
| 252 |
+
A = np.zeros((M-1, M-1))
|
| 253 |
+
B = np.zeros((M-1, M-1))
|
| 254 |
+
for idx in range(M-1):
|
| 255 |
+
if idx > 0:
|
| 256 |
+
A[idx, idx-1] = -a[idx+1]
|
| 257 |
+
B[idx, idx-1] = a[idx+1]
|
| 258 |
+
A[idx, idx] = 1 - b[idx+1]
|
| 259 |
+
B[idx, idx] = 1 + b[idx+1]
|
| 260 |
+
if idx < M-2:
|
| 261 |
+
A[idx, idx+1] = -c[idx+1]
|
| 262 |
+
B[idx, idx+1] = c[idx+1]
|
| 263 |
+
# backward time stepping
|
| 264 |
+
from numpy.linalg import solve
|
| 265 |
+
for n in reversed(range(N)):
|
| 266 |
+
rhs = B.dot(grid[1:M, n+1])
|
| 267 |
+
# add boundary contributions
|
| 268 |
+
rhs[0] += a[1] * (grid[0, n] + grid[0, n+1])
|
| 269 |
+
rhs[-1] += c[M-1] * (grid[M, n] + grid[M, n+1])
|
| 270 |
+
grid[1:M, n] = solve(A, rhs)
|
| 271 |
+
# interpolate at S0
|
| 272 |
+
i = int(S0 / dS)
|
| 273 |
+
if i >= M:
|
| 274 |
+
return float(grid[-1, 0])
|
| 275 |
+
w = (S0 - i * dS) / dS
|
| 276 |
+
price = (1-w) * grid[i, 0] + w * grid[i+1, 0]
|
| 277 |
+
return float(price)
|
| 278 |
+
|
| 279 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 280 |
+
def mc_price_bs_cv(S0: float, K: float, r: float, q: float, sigma: float, T: float,
|
| 281 |
+
option_type: str='call', n_paths: int=20000, antithetic: bool=True, seed: Optional[int]=None):
|
| 282 |
"""
|
| 283 |
+
Monte Carlo with antithetic variates and control variate (BS analytic).
|
| 284 |
+
Control variate: use discount payoff under geometric Brownian motion analytic expectation = BS price with same params.
|
|
|
|
| 285 |
"""
|
| 286 |
if seed is not None:
|
| 287 |
np.random.seed(seed)
|
| 288 |
+
n = n_paths
|
| 289 |
+
half = n // 2 if antithetic else n
|
| 290 |
+
Z = np.random.randn(half)
|
| 291 |
+
if antithetic:
|
| 292 |
+
Z = np.concatenate([Z, -Z])
|
| 293 |
+
ST = S0 * np.exp((r - q - 0.5*sigma**2) * T + sigma * np.sqrt(T) * Z)
|
| 294 |
+
if option_type == 'call':
|
| 295 |
+
payoff = np.maximum(ST - K, 0)
|
| 296 |
+
else:
|
| 297 |
+
payoff = np.maximum(K - ST, 0)
|
| 298 |
+
# control variate: use discounted ST (or log ST) expectation known
|
| 299 |
+
# use analytic BS price as control target
|
| 300 |
+
bs_analytic = StochasticModels.bs_price(S0, K, r, q, sigma, T, option_type=option_type)
|
| 301 |
+
# choose control variable as discounted payoff under geometric mean? simple: use ST
|
| 302 |
+
control = ST # expectation of ST under risk-neutral = S0 * exp((r-q)T)
|
| 303 |
+
control_mean = S0 * np.exp((r - q) * T)
|
| 304 |
+
# compute covariance and adjust
|
| 305 |
+
cov_pc = np.cov(payoff, control, ddof=1)[0,1]
|
| 306 |
+
var_c = np.var(control, ddof=1)
|
| 307 |
+
if var_c > 0:
|
| 308 |
+
beta = cov_pc / var_c
|
| 309 |
+
else:
|
| 310 |
+
beta = 0.0
|
| 311 |
+
adj_payoff = payoff - beta * (control - control_mean)
|
| 312 |
+
price = np.exp(-r * T) * np.mean(adj_payoff)
|
| 313 |
+
# bias correction via analytic price difference if helpful
|
| 314 |
+
return float(price)
|
| 315 |
|
| 316 |
+
class Econometrics:
|
| 317 |
+
"""GARCH via arch package (preferred) or MLE fallback; Johansen using statsmodels if available"""
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 318 |
|
| 319 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 320 |
+
def garch_11_fit(returns: np.ndarray):
|
| 321 |
+
r = np.asarray(returns).astype(float)
|
| 322 |
+
r = r - np.mean(r)
|
| 323 |
+
if config.arch:
|
| 324 |
+
try:
|
| 325 |
+
am = arch_model(r * 100.0, vol='Garch', p=1, q=1, dist='normal') # scale to percent to help arch convergence
|
| 326 |
+
res = am.fit(disp='off')
|
| 327 |
+
params = res.params.to_dict()
|
| 328 |
+
cond_var = res.conditional_volatility / 100.0
|
| 329 |
+
return {'method': 'arch', 'params': params, 'cond_var': cond_var.tolist()}
|
| 330 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 331 |
+
logger.warning(f"arch fit failed: {e}; falling back to MLE.")
|
| 332 |
+
# MLE fallback
|
| 333 |
+
T = len(r)
|
| 334 |
+
def neglog(params):
|
| 335 |
+
omega, alpha, beta = params
|
| 336 |
+
if omega <= 0 or alpha < 0 or beta < 0 or alpha + beta >= 0.9999:
|
| 337 |
+
return 1e12
|
| 338 |
+
h = np.zeros(T)
|
| 339 |
+
h[0] = np.var(r)
|
| 340 |
+
ll = 0.0
|
| 341 |
+
for t in range(1, T):
|
| 342 |
+
h[t] = omega + alpha * r[t-1]**2 + beta * h[t-1]
|
| 343 |
+
ll = 0.5 * (np.log(2*np.pi) + np.log(h) + (r**2)/h)
|
| 344 |
+
return np.sum(ll)
|
| 345 |
+
init = np.array([1e-6, 0.05, 0.9])
|
| 346 |
+
bnds = [(1e-12, None), (0, 0.9999), (0, 0.9999)]
|
| 347 |
+
res = minimize(neglog, x0=init, bounds=bnds)
|
| 348 |
+
if not res.success:
|
| 349 |
+
logger.warning("GARCH MLE did not converge; returning fallback params")
|
| 350 |
+
omega, alpha, beta = init
|
| 351 |
+
else:
|
| 352 |
+
omega, alpha, beta = res.x
|
| 353 |
+
# compute h
|
| 354 |
+
h = np.zeros(T)
|
| 355 |
+
h[0] = np.var(r)
|
| 356 |
+
for t in range(1, T):
|
| 357 |
+
h[t] = omega + alpha * r[t-1]**2 + beta * h[t-1]
|
| 358 |
+
return {'method': 'mle', 'params': {'omega': float(omega), 'alpha': float(alpha), 'beta': float(beta)}, 'cond_var': h.tolist()}
|
| 359 |
+
|
| 360 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 361 |
+
def johansen_test(data: np.ndarray, det_order: int=0, k_ar_diff: int=1):
|
| 362 |
+
if config.statsmodels:
|
| 363 |
+
try:
|
| 364 |
+
res = coint_johansen(data, det_order, k_ar_diff)
|
| 365 |
+
return {'eig': res.eig.tolist(), 'lr1': res.lr1.tolist(), 'cvm': res.cvt.tolist()}
|
| 366 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 367 |
+
logger.warning(f"Johansen failed: {e}")
|
| 368 |
+
return None
|
| 369 |
+
else:
|
| 370 |
return None
|
| 371 |
+
|
| 372 |
+
class PortfolioOptimization:
|
| 373 |
+
"""Black-Litterman and Markowitz using cvxpy if available, else SciPy minimize"""
|
| 374 |
+
|
| 375 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 376 |
+
def gmv_weights(returns: np.ndarray):
|
| 377 |
+
R = np.asarray(returns)
|
| 378 |
+
cov = np.cov(R.T)
|
| 379 |
+
n = cov.shape[0]
|
| 380 |
+
if CVXPY_AVAILABLE:
|
| 381 |
+
w = cp.Variable(n)
|
| 382 |
+
prob = cp.Problem(cp.Minimize(cp.quad_form(w, cov)),
|
| 383 |
+
[cp.sum(w) == 1])
|
| 384 |
+
prob.solve(solver=cp.SCS, verbose=False)
|
| 385 |
+
w_opt = np.array(w.value).ravel()
|
| 386 |
+
return w_opt
|
| 387 |
+
else:
|
| 388 |
+
# analytic GMV: invcov * 1 / (1^T invcov 1)
|
| 389 |
+
invcov = np.linalg.pinv(cov)
|
| 390 |
+
ones = np.ones((n,))
|
| 391 |
+
w = invcov.dot(ones)
|
| 392 |
+
w = w / (ones.dot(invcov).dot(ones))
|
| 393 |
+
return w
|
| 394 |
+
|
| 395 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 396 |
+
def mean_variance_opt(returns: np.ndarray, target_return: Optional[float]=None):
|
| 397 |
+
R = np.asarray(returns)
|
| 398 |
+
mu = np.mean(R, axis=0)
|
| 399 |
+
cov = np.cov(R.T)
|
| 400 |
+
n = len(mu)
|
| 401 |
+
if CVXPY_AVAILABLE:
|
| 402 |
+
w = cp.Variable(n)
|
| 403 |
+
constraints = [cp.sum(w) == 1]
|
| 404 |
+
if target_return is not None:
|
| 405 |
+
constraints.append(mu @ w >= target_return)
|
| 406 |
+
prob = cp.Problem(cp.Minimize(cp.quad_form(w, cov)), constraints)
|
| 407 |
+
prob.solve(solver=cp.SCS, verbose=False)
|
| 408 |
+
return np.array(w.value).ravel()
|
| 409 |
+
else:
|
| 410 |
+
# solve using analytical formula for target_return or GMV fallback
|
| 411 |
+
if target_return is None:
|
| 412 |
+
return PortfolioOptimization.gmv_weights(R)
|
| 413 |
+
invcov = np.linalg.pinv(cov)
|
| 414 |
+
ones = np.ones(n)
|
| 415 |
+
A = ones.T.dot(invcov).dot(ones)
|
| 416 |
+
B = ones.T.dot(invcov).dot(mu)
|
| 417 |
+
C = mu.T.dot(invcov).dot(mu)
|
| 418 |
+
denom = A * C - B**2
|
| 419 |
+
lam = (C - target_return * B) / denom
|
| 420 |
+
gamma = (target_return * A - B) / denom
|
| 421 |
+
w = invcov.dot(lam * ones + gamma * mu)
|
| 422 |
+
return w
|
| 423 |
+
|
| 424 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 425 |
+
# ML for Finance helpers
|
| 426 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 427 |
+
class MLForFinance:
|
| 428 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 429 |
+
def compute_basic_features(price: np.ndarray, mom_window: int=20, vol_window: int=20):
|
| 430 |
+
p = np.asarray(price).ravel()
|
| 431 |
+
ret = np.concatenate([[0], np.diff(np.log(p + 1e-12))])
|
| 432 |
+
mom = pd.Series(p).pct_change(mom_window).fillna(0).values
|
| 433 |
+
rv = pd.Series(ret).rolling(vol_window).std().fillna(method='bfill').values
|
| 434 |
+
sma = pd.Series(p).rolling(mom_window).mean().fillna(method='bfill').values
|
| 435 |
+
features = np.vstack([ret, mom, rv, sma]).T
|
| 436 |
+
return features
|
| 437 |
+
|
| 438 |
+
@staticmethod
|
| 439 |
+
def lasso_select(X: np.ndarray, y: np.ndarray):
|
| 440 |
+
model = None
|
| 441 |
try:
|
| 442 |
+
from sklearn.linear_model import LassoCV
|
| 443 |
+
model = LassoCV(cv=5, n_jobs=1).fit(X, y.ravel())
|
| 444 |
+
coef = model.coef_
|
| 445 |
+
selected = list(np.where(np.abs(coef) > 1e-6)[0])
|
| 446 |
+
return {'coef': coef.tolist(), 'selected': selected, 'alpha': float(model.alpha_)}
|
| 447 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 448 |
+
logger.warning(f"LASSO selection failed: {e}")
|
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|
| 449 |
return None
|
|
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|
| 450 |
|
| 451 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 452 |
+
# LLM interface (detailed prompt + structured JSON output)
|
| 453 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 454 |
class LLMInterface:
|
| 455 |
+
def __init__(self, model_name: str = None, hf_token: Optional[str] = None):
|
| 456 |
+
self.model_name = model_name or config.hf_default_model
|
| 457 |
+
self.api_url = f"https://api-inference.huggingface.co/models/{self.model_name}"
|
| 458 |
+
self.hf_token = hf_token or config.hf_token
|
| 459 |
+
|
| 460 |
+
def _call_api(self, prompt: str, max_length: int = 700) -> str:
|
| 461 |
+
headers = {"Authorization": f"Bearer {self.hf_token}"} if self.hf_token else {"Content-Type": "application/json"}
|
| 462 |
+
payload = {"inputs": prompt, "parameters": {"max_new_tokens": max_length, "temperature": 0.2}}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 463 |
try:
|
| 464 |
+
r = requests.post(self.api_url, headers=headers, json=payload, timeout=40)
|
| 465 |
+
if r.status_code == 200:
|
| 466 |
+
res = r.json()
|
| 467 |
+
if isinstance(res, list) and isinstance(res[0], dict):
|
| 468 |
+
return res[0].get("generated_text", str(res[0]))
|
| 469 |
+
return str(res)
|
| 470 |
else:
|
| 471 |
+
return f"API_ERROR_{r.status_code}: {r.text[:200]}"
|
| 472 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 473 |
+
return f"API_EXCEPTION: {e}"
|
| 474 |
+
|
| 475 |
+
def generate_structured_strategy(self,
|
| 476 |
+
analysis: Dict[str, Any],
|
| 477 |
+
market_snapshot: str,
|
| 478 |
+
requirements: Dict[str, Any]) -> Dict[str, Any]:
|
| 479 |
"""
|
| 480 |
+
Produce structured JSON with keys:
|
| 481 |
+
- strategy_summary
|
| 482 |
+
- signals (list of rules)
|
| 483 |
+
- risk_management
|
| 484 |
+
- pseudocode (string)
|
| 485 |
+
- backtest_guidance
|
| 486 |
"""
|
| 487 |
+
instr = (
|
| 488 |
+
"You are a quantitative researcher writing a concise Quant Research Note. "
|
| 489 |
+
"Produce structured JSON only, with keys: strategy_summary, signals, risk_management, pseudocode, backtest_guidance, notes.\n\n"
|
| 490 |
+
"Requirements: "
|
| 491 |
+
f"{json.dumps(requirements)}\n\n"
|
| 492 |
+
"Analysis (numerical results):\n"
|
| 493 |
+
f"{json.dumps(analysis, indent=2, ensure_ascii=False)[:4000]}\n\n"
|
| 494 |
+
"Market snapshot:\n"
|
| 495 |
+
f"{market_snapshot[:2000]}\n\n"
|
| 496 |
+
"Be specific: signals should include exact mathematical conditions (e.g. vrp > vrp_sma_short AND rsi < 30). "
|
| 497 |
+
"Pseudocode should include function signatures: compute_features(data), generate_signal(features), risk_manage(position), execute(signal). "
|
| 498 |
+
"Backtest guidance should specify data frequency, in-sample/out-of-sample split, sample length, and slippage/commission assumptions. "
|
| 499 |
+
"Keep outputs compact but precise."
|
| 500 |
+
)
|
| 501 |
+
raw = self._call_api(instr, max_length=800)
|
| 502 |
+
# Try to parse JSON from raw; if fails, fallback to heuristics
|
| 503 |
+
try:
|
| 504 |
+
# sometimes HF returns text with JSON in it — try to extract first JSON object
|
| 505 |
+
start = raw.find("{")
|
| 506 |
+
end = raw.rfind("}")
|
| 507 |
+
if start != -1 and end != -1:
|
| 508 |
+
candidate = raw[start:end+1]
|
| 509 |
+
data = json.loads(candidate)
|
| 510 |
+
return data
|
| 511 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 512 |
+
logger.warning(f"LLM did not return pure JSON: {e}")
|
| 513 |
+
# fallback: craft deterministic template using analysis and requirements
|
| 514 |
+
fallback = {
|
| 515 |
+
"strategy_summary": "Fallback strategy: VRP mean-reversion with momentum filter.",
|
| 516 |
+
"signals": [
|
| 517 |
+
"entry: vrp < vrp_sma_short and momentum > 0.5",
|
| 518 |
+
"exit: vrp > vrp_sma_long or price crosses stop loss"
|
| 519 |
+
],
|
| 520 |
+
"risk_management": "max position risk 0.5% NAV; use stop-loss and time-based exit",
|
| 521 |
+
"pseudocode": (
|
| 522 |
+
"def compute_features(data):\n"
|
| 523 |
+
" features = {...} # vrp, sma, momentum\n"
|
| 524 |
+
"def generate_signal(features):\n"
|
| 525 |
+
" if features['vrp'] < features['vrp_sma_short'] and features['mom'] > 0:\n"
|
| 526 |
+
" return 1\n"
|
| 527 |
+
" return 0\n"
|
| 528 |
+
"def risk_manage(pos):\n"
|
| 529 |
+
" # apply stop loss / position sizing\n"
|
| 530 |
+
),
|
| 531 |
+
"backtest_guidance": "Use 1-minute bars, in-sample 2 years, OOS 6 months, slippage 0.02%, commission 0.0005 per trade",
|
| 532 |
+
"notes": "LLM API failed or returned non-JSON; this is a deterministic fallback."
|
| 533 |
+
}
|
| 534 |
+
return fallback
|
| 535 |
+
|
| 536 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 537 |
+
# Integrative Trainer / Platform
|
| 538 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 539 |
+
class QuantPlatform:
|
| 540 |
+
def __init__(self):
|
| 541 |
+
self.fiber = FiberBundleTheory()
|
| 542 |
+
self.noise = NoiseExplorer()
|
| 543 |
+
self.trainer_ml = None
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 544 |
self.llm = LLMInterface()
|
| 545 |
self.current_data = None
|
| 546 |
self.analysis_results = {}
|
| 547 |
+
|
| 548 |
+
# Data ingestion & basic analysis
|
| 549 |
+
def upload_and_analyze(self, file):
|
| 550 |
if file is None:
|
| 551 |
+
return "请上传 CSV / Excel 文件", None, None
|
| 552 |
+
fname = file.name
|
| 553 |
try:
|
| 554 |
+
if fname.endswith('.csv'):
|
| 555 |
+
df = pd.read_csv(fname)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 556 |
else:
|
| 557 |
+
df = pd.read_excel(fname)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 558 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 559 |
+
return f"读取失败: {e}", None, None
|
| 560 |
+
self.current_data = df
|
| 561 |
+
numeric = df.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns.tolist()
|
| 562 |
+
summary = f"Rows: {len(df)}, Cols: {len(df.columns)}, Numeric: {numeric}"
|
| 563 |
+
# noise exploration (first two numeric columns)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 564 |
try:
|
| 565 |
+
noise_res = self.noise.explore(df)
|
| 566 |
+
noise_summary = f"VRP mean {noise_res['vrp_mean']:.6f}, vrp std {noise_res['vrp_std']:.6f}, resid ac1 {noise_res['resid_stats']['ac1']:.4f}"
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 567 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 568 |
+
noise_summary = f"噪声分析失败: {e}"
|
| 569 |
+
noise_res = None
|
| 570 |
+
# garch quick fit on first numeric column returns (if plausible)
|
| 571 |
+
garch_summary = "GARCH not run"
|
| 572 |
+
if numeric:
|
| 573 |
+
series = df[numeric[0]].pct_change().dropna().values
|
| 574 |
+
if len(series) > 30:
|
| 575 |
+
try:
|
| 576 |
+
garch_res = Econometrics.garch_11_fit(series)
|
| 577 |
+
garch_summary = f"GARCH method: {garch_res.get('method','?')}, params keys: {list(garch_res.get('params',{}).keys()) if 'params' in garch_res else 'n/a'}"
|
| 578 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 579 |
+
garch_summary = f"GARCH失败: {e}"
|
| 580 |
+
self.analysis_results = {'noise': noise_res, 'garch': garch_summary}
|
| 581 |
+
return summary, noise_summary, garch_summary
|
| 582 |
+
|
| 583 |
+
# Pricing / PDE / MC wrappers
|
| 584 |
+
def price_bs_cn(self, S, K, r, q, sigma, T, Smax_mult=3.0, M=400, N=400, option_type='call'):
|
| 585 |
try:
|
| 586 |
+
p = NumericalMethods.bs_crank_nicolson(float(S), float(K), float(r), float(q), float(sigma), float(T),
|
| 587 |
+
Smax_mult=float(Smax_mult), M=int(M), N=int(N), option_type=option_type)
|
| 588 |
+
return f"Crank–Nicolson price: {p:.6f}"
|
| 589 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 590 |
+
return f"PDE pricing failed: {e}"
|
| 591 |
+
|
| 592 |
+
def price_bs_mc(self, S, K, r, q, sigma, T, option_type='call', n_paths=20000, antithetic=True):
|
| 593 |
+
try:
|
| 594 |
+
p = NumericalMethods.mc_price_bs_cv(float(S), float(K), float(r), float(q), float(sigma), float(T),
|
| 595 |
+
option_type=option_type, n_paths=int(n_paths), antithetic=bool(antithetic))
|
| 596 |
+
return f"MC price (CV): {p:.6f}"
|
| 597 |
+
except Exception as e:
|
| 598 |
+
return f"MC pricing failed: {e}"
|
| 599 |
+
|
| 600 |
+
def simulate_heston(self, S0, v0, r, kappa, theta, xi, rho, T, n_steps=252, n_paths=2000):
|
| 601 |
+
try:
|
| 602 |
+
S, v = StochasticModels.heston_simulate(float(S0), float(v0), float(r), float(kappa), float(theta), float(xi), float(rho), float(T), int(n_steps), int(n_paths))
|
| 603 |
+
# return minimal summary and a small plot (first 3 paths)
|
| 604 |
+
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
|
| 605 |
+
for i in range(min(3, S.shape[0])):
|
| 606 |
+
ax.plot(S[i,:], label=f'path{i}')
|
| 607 |
+
ax.set_title("Heston sample paths (first few)")
|
| 608 |
+
ax.legend()
|
| 609 |
+
return "Heston simulation success", fig
|
| 610 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 611 |
+
return f"Heston simulation failed: {e}", None
|
| 612 |
+
|
| 613 |
+
# Econometrics wrappers
|
| 614 |
+
def garch_fit(self):
|
| 615 |
if self.current_data is None:
|
| 616 |
+
return "请先上传数据"
|
| 617 |
+
numeric = self.current_data.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).columns.tolist()
|
| 618 |
+
if not numeric:
|
| 619 |
+
return "数据无数值列"
|
| 620 |
+
series = self.current_data[numeric[0]].pct_change().dropna().values
|
| 621 |
+
if len(series) < 30:
|
| 622 |
+
return "样本过短,至少需要30个观测用于GARCH拟合"
|
| 623 |
try:
|
| 624 |
+
res = Econometrics.garch_11_fit(series)
|
| 625 |
+
return json.dumps({'method': res.get('method','mle'), 'params': res.get('params') if 'params' in res else 'omega/alpha/beta', 'cond_var_mean': float(np.mean(res.get('cond_var',[])) if res.get('cond_var') else np.nan)}, indent=2)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 626 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 627 |
+
return f"GARCH拟合失败: {e}"
|
| 628 |
+
|
| 629 |
+
def johansen(self):
|
| 630 |
+
if self.current_data is None:
|
| 631 |
+
return "请先上传数据"
|
| 632 |
+
data = self.current_data.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).dropna().values
|
| 633 |
+
if data.shape[0] < 50 or data.shape[1] < 2:
|
| 634 |
+
return "数据不足以做 Johansen 协整检验(至少 50 行,2 列)"
|
| 635 |
try:
|
| 636 |
+
res = Econometrics.johansen_test(data)
|
| 637 |
+
if res is None:
|
| 638 |
+
return "Johansen 不可用(statsmodels 未安装或出错)"
|
| 639 |
+
return json.dumps({'eig_top5': res['eig'][:5], 'lr1_top5': res['lr1'][:5]}, indent=2)
|
| 640 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 641 |
+
return f"Johansen 失败: {e}"
|
| 642 |
+
|
| 643 |
+
# Portfolio & Risk
|
| 644 |
+
def compute_gmv(self):
|
| 645 |
+
if self.current_data is None:
|
| 646 |
+
return "请先上传数据"
|
| 647 |
+
df = self.current_data.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).dropna()
|
| 648 |
+
if df.shape[0] < 10 or df.shape[1] < 1:
|
| 649 |
+
return "数据不足"
|
| 650 |
+
returns = df.pct_change().dropna().values
|
| 651 |
+
w = PortfolioOptimization.gmv_weights(returns)
|
| 652 |
+
return f"GMV weights (len {len(w)}): {np.round(w,4).tolist()}"
|
| 653 |
+
|
| 654 |
+
def mean_var_opt(self, target_return: Optional[float]=None):
|
| 655 |
+
if self.current_data is None:
|
| 656 |
+
return "请先上传数据"
|
| 657 |
+
df = self.current_data.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).dropna()
|
| 658 |
+
returns = df.pct_change().dropna().values
|
| 659 |
try:
|
| 660 |
+
w = PortfolioOptimization.mean_variance_opt(returns, target_return=float(target_return) if target_return is not None else None)
|
| 661 |
+
return f"Optimized weights (len {len(w)}): {np.round(w,4).tolist()}"
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|
| 662 |
except Exception as e:
|
| 663 |
+
return f"Mean-Variance optimization failed: {e}"
|
| 664 |
+
|
| 665 |
+
# ML
|
| 666 |
+
def lasso_select(self):
|
| 667 |
+
if self.current_data is None:
|
| 668 |
+
return "请先上传数据"
|
| 669 |
+
df = self.current_data.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).dropna()
|
| 670 |
+
if df.shape[1] < 2 or df.shape[0] < 30:
|
| 671 |
+
return "数据不足以做 LASSO"
|
| 672 |
+
y = df.iloc[:,0].pct_change().dropna().values
|
| 673 |
+
X = df.iloc[:,1:].pct_change().dropna().values
|
| 674 |
+
# align lengths
|
| 675 |
+
minlen = min(len(y), len(X))
|
| 676 |
+
if minlen <= 10:
|
| 677 |
+
return "数据对齐后样本太短"
|
| 678 |
+
y = y[-minlen:]
|
| 679 |
+
X = X[-minlen:]
|
| 680 |
+
res = MLForFinance.lasso_select(X, y)
|
| 681 |
+
if res is None:
|
| 682 |
+
return "LASSO 失败"
|
| 683 |
+
return f"Selected indices: {res['selected']}, alpha: {res['alpha']:.6g}"
|
| 684 |
+
|
| 685 |
+
# LLM strategy (structured)
|
| 686 |
+
def generate_strategy(self, user_prompt: str, intraday: bool=True, model_name: Optional[str]=None) -> str:
|
| 687 |
+
if self.current_data is None:
|
| 688 |
+
return json.dumps({'error': '请先上传数据'}, ensure_ascii=False)
|
| 689 |
+
# Build analysis dict
|
| 690 |
+
analysis = {}
|
| 691 |
+
if self.analysis_results.get('noise'):
|
| 692 |
+
analysis['noise'] = self.analysis_results['noise']
|
| 693 |
+
# GARCH cond var mean if available
|
| 694 |
+
try:
|
| 695 |
+
g = self.garch_fit()
|
| 696 |
+
analysis['garch_summary'] = json.loads(g) if g and g.startswith("{") else g
|
| 697 |
+
except Exception:
|
| 698 |
+
analysis['garch_summary'] = "GARCH无法解析"
|
| 699 |
+
# market snapshot: last 50 rows numeric describe
|
| 700 |
+
do_numeric = self.current_data.select_dtypes(include=[np.number]).tail(50).describe().to_string()
|
| 701 |
+
requirements = {'intraday': intraday, 'pseudocode': True, 'user_prompt': user_prompt}
|
| 702 |
+
if model_name:
|
| 703 |
+
self.llm = LLMInterface(model_name=model_name)
|
| 704 |
+
result = self.llm.generate_structured_strategy(analysis, do_numeric, requirements)
|
| 705 |
+
# return pretty JSON
|
| 706 |
+
return json.dumps(result, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)
|
| 707 |
+
|
| 708 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 709 |
+
# Gradio UI
|
| 710 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 711 |
+
def create_ui():
|
| 712 |
+
platform = QuantPlatform()
|
| 713 |
+
with gr.Blocks(title="Quant Upgraded Platform") as demo:
|
| 714 |
+
gr.Markdown("# Quant Upgraded Platform — 高精度/高性能 + 精细化 LLM 策略")
|
| 715 |
with gr.Tabs():
|
| 716 |
+
with gr.TabItem("📁 数据上传 & 基础分析"):
|
|
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|
|
|
| 717 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 718 |
+
file_input = gr.File(label="上传 CSV / Excel")
|
| 719 |
+
upload_btn = gr.Button("上传并分析")
|
| 720 |
+
summary = gr.Textbox(label="数据摘要", lines=2)
|
| 721 |
+
noise = gr.Textbox(label="噪声探索摘要", lines=2)
|
| 722 |
+
garch = gr.Textbox(label="GARCH 摘要", lines=2)
|
| 723 |
+
upload_btn.click(platform.upload_and_analyze, inputs=[file_input], outputs=[summary, noise, garch])
|
| 724 |
+
|
| 725 |
+
with gr.TabItem("📊 Pricing / PDE / MC"):
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 726 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 727 |
+
S = gr.Number(value=100.0, label="Spot S")
|
| 728 |
+
K = gr.Number(value=100.0, label="Strike K")
|
| 729 |
+
r = gr.Number(value=0.01, label="r")
|
| 730 |
+
q = gr.Number(value=0.0, label="q")
|
| 731 |
+
sigma = gr.Number(value=0.2, label="sigma")
|
| 732 |
+
T = gr.Number(value=0.5, label="T (yrs)")
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 733 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 734 |
+
bs_cn_btn = gr.Button("Crank–Nicolson BS PDE 价格")
|
| 735 |
+
bs_cn_out = gr.Textbox(label="PDE Price", lines=1)
|
| 736 |
+
bs_cn_btn.click(platform.price_bs_cn, inputs=[S,K,r,q,sigma,T, gr.Number(value=3.0), gr.Slider(100,800,value=400), gr.Slider(100,800,value=400), gr.Dropdown(['call','put'], value='call')], outputs=[bs_cn_out])
|
|
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|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 737 |
with gr.Row():
|
| 738 |
+
mc_btn = gr.Button("Monte Carlo (Antithetic + Control Var)")
|
| 739 |
+
mc_out = gr.Textbox(label="MC Price (CV)", lines=1)
|
| 740 |
+
mc_btn.click(platform.price_bs_mc, inputs=[S,K,r,q,sigma,T, gr.Dropdown(['call','put'], value='call'), gr.Number(value=config.mc_default_paths), gr.Checkbox(value=True, label="Antithetic")], outputs=[mc_out])
|
| 741 |
+
|
| 742 |
+
with gr.TabItem("🔢 Econometrics"):
|
| 743 |
+
garch_btn = gr.Button("GARCH(1,1) 拟合")
|
| 744 |
+
garch_out = gr.Textbox(label="GARCH 结果", lines=8)
|
| 745 |
+
garch_btn.click(platform.garch_fit, inputs=None, outputs=[garch_out])
|
| 746 |
+
|
| 747 |
+
joh_btn = gr.Button("Johansen 协整检验")
|
| 748 |
+
joh_out = gr.Textbox(label="Johansen 结果", lines=6)
|
| 749 |
+
joh_btn.click(platform.johansen, inputs=None, outputs=[joh_out])
|
| 750 |
+
|
| 751 |
+
with gr.TabItem("📈 Portfolio & Risk"):
|
| 752 |
+
gmv_btn = gr.Button("计算 GMV 权重")
|
| 753 |
+
gmv_out = gr.Textbox(label="GMV 权重", lines=3)
|
| 754 |
+
gmv_btn.click(platform.compute_gmv, inputs=None, outputs=[gmv_out])
|
| 755 |
+
|
| 756 |
+
mv_btn = gr.Button("均值-方差 优化 (可选目标收益)")
|
| 757 |
+
target = gr.Number(label="目标收益 (可空)", value=None)
|
| 758 |
+
mv_out = gr.Textbox(label="MV 结果", lines=3)
|
| 759 |
+
mv_btn.click(platform.mean_var_opt, inputs=[target], outputs=[mv_out])
|
| 760 |
+
|
| 761 |
+
with gr.TabItem("🤖 LLM 策略生成 (结构化)"):
|
| 762 |
+
user_q = gr.Textbox(label="你的问题(策略 / 日内 / 回测)", lines=3, value="基于当前数据,给出日内量化策略并生成伪代码")
|
| 763 |
+
intraday = gr.Checkbox(label="日内策略", value=True)
|
| 764 |
+
model_sel = gr.Dropdown(label="LLM 模型 (若无Token或模型不可用会回退)", choices=[config.hf_default_model], value=config.hf_default_model)
|
| 765 |
+
strat_out = gr.Textbox(label="结构化策略输出 (JSON)", lines=20)
|
| 766 |
+
strat_btn = gr.Button("生成策略")
|
| 767 |
+
strat_btn.click(platform.generate_strategy, inputs=[user_q, intraday, model_sel], outputs=[strat_out])
|
| 768 |
+
|
| 769 |
+
with gr.TabItem("🔬 Dynamics & Geometry (原有)"):
|
| 770 |
+
noise_btn = gr.Button("运行噪声探索")
|
| 771 |
+
noise_text = gr.Textbox(label="Noise summary", lines=3)
|
| 772 |
+
def run_noise():
|
| 773 |
+
if platform.current_data is None:
|
| 774 |
+
return "请先上传数据"
|
| 775 |
+
res = platform.noise.explore(platform.current_data)
|
| 776 |
+
return f"VRP mean {res['vrp_mean']:.6f}, resid ac1 {res['resid_stats']['ac1']:.4f}"
|
| 777 |
+
noise_btn.click(run_noise, inputs=None, outputs=[noise_text])
|
| 778 |
+
|
| 779 |
+
sim_vix2 = gr.Number(value=1.0, label="start VIX^2")
|
| 780 |
+
sim_rv = gr.Number(value=0.8, label="start RV")
|
| 781 |
+
T_sim = gr.Number(value=1.0, label="T")
|
| 782 |
+
dt_sim = gr.Number(value=0.01, label="dt")
|
| 783 |
+
sim_btn = gr.Button("模拟梯度动力学")
|
| 784 |
+
sim_out = gr.Plot(label="Dynamics path")
|
| 785 |
+
def run_sim(vix2, rv, T, dt):
|
| 786 |
+
# lightweight simulate using gradient dynamics (reuse earlier pattern)
|
| 787 |
+
gradient = GradientDynamicsLite()
|
| 788 |
+
path = gradient.simulate_flow([vix2, rv], T=float(T), dt=float(dt))
|
| 789 |
+
fig, ax = plt.subplots()
|
| 790 |
+
ax.plot(path[:,0], label='VIX^2')
|
| 791 |
+
ax.plot(path[:,1], label='RV')
|
| 792 |
+
ax.legend()
|
| 793 |
+
ax.set_title("Gradient dynamics (VIX^2 & RV)")
|
| 794 |
+
return fig
|
| 795 |
+
sim_btn.click(run_sim, inputs=[sim_vix2, sim_rv, T_sim, dt_sim], outputs=[sim_out])
|
| 796 |
+
|
| 797 |
+
gr.Markdown("注:本系统为研究用途,不构成投资建议。部分功能依赖外部库(statsmodels, arch, cvxpy)。")
|
| 798 |
+
|
| 799 |
+
return demo
|
| 800 |
+
|
| 801 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 802 |
+
# Small helper: GradientDynamicsLite (used only in UI simulation)
|
| 803 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 804 |
+
class GradientDynamicsLite:
|
| 805 |
+
def __init__(self, eta=0.5, sigma=0.02):
|
| 806 |
+
self.eta = eta
|
| 807 |
+
self.sigma = sigma
|
| 808 |
+
|
| 809 |
+
def U_vrp(self, b):
|
| 810 |
+
vix2 = b[...,0]
|
| 811 |
+
rv = b[...,1]
|
| 812 |
+
vrp = vix2 - rv
|
| 813 |
+
return 0.5 * vrp**2
|
| 814 |
+
|
| 815 |
+
def grad_U(self, b):
|
| 816 |
+
# analytic gradient for U = 0.5*(vix2 - rv)^2
|
| 817 |
+
vix2 = b[0]
|
| 818 |
+
rv = b[1]
|
| 819 |
+
# dU/dvix2 = (vix2 - rv); dU/drv = -(vix2 - rv)
|
| 820 |
+
g = np.array([vix2 - rv, -(vix2 - rv)], dtype=float)
|
| 821 |
+
return g
|
| 822 |
+
|
| 823 |
+
def simulate_flow(self, b0, T=1.0, dt=0.01, seed=None):
|
| 824 |
+
if seed is not None:
|
| 825 |
+
np.random.seed(seed)
|
| 826 |
+
n_steps = int(T / dt)
|
| 827 |
+
path = np.zeros((n_steps+1, 2))
|
| 828 |
+
path[0] = np.array(b0, dtype=float)
|
| 829 |
+
for i in range(n_steps):
|
| 830 |
+
bcur = path[i]
|
| 831 |
+
grad = self.grad_U(bcur)
|
| 832 |
+
db_det = - self.eta * grad
|
| 833 |
+
db_stoch = self.sigma * np.sqrt(dt) * np.random.randn(2)
|
| 834 |
+
path[i+1] = bcur + db_det * dt + db_stoch
|
| 835 |
+
return path
|
| 836 |
+
|
| 837 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 838 |
+
# Entrypoint
|
| 839 |
+
# ---------------------
|
| 840 |
if __name__ == "__main__":
|
| 841 |
+
app = create_ui()
|
| 842 |
+
# Launch locally
|
| 843 |
+
app.launch(server_name="0.0.0.0", server_port=7860, share=False)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|