Daily Papers

Designing effective strategies for controlling epidemic spread by vaccination is an important question in epidemiology, especially in the early stages when vaccines are limited. This is a challenging question when the contact network is very heterogeneous, and strategies based on controlling network properties, such as the degree and spectral radius, have been shown to be effective. Implementation of such strategies requires detailed information on the contact structure, which might be sensitive in many applications. Our focus here is on choosing effective vaccination strategies when the edges are sensitive and differential privacy guarantees are needed. Our main contributions are (varepsilon,delta)-differentially private algorithms for designing vaccination strategies by reducing the maximum degree and spectral radius. Our key technique is a private algorithm for the multi-set multi-cover problem, which we use for controlling network properties. We evaluate privacy-utility tradeoffs of our algorithms on multiple synthetic and real-world networks, and show their effectiveness.

The outbreak of COVID-19 has highlighted the intricate interplay between public health and economic stability on a global scale. This study proposes a novel reinforcement learning framework designed to optimize health and economic outcomes during pandemics. The framework leverages the SIR model, integrating both lockdown measures (via a stringency index) and vaccination strategies to simulate disease dynamics. The stringency index, indicative of the severity of lockdown measures, influences both the spread of the disease and the economic health of a country. Developing nations, which bear a disproportionate economic burden under stringent lockdowns, are the primary focus of our study. By implementing reinforcement learning, we aim to optimize governmental responses and strike a balance between the competing costs associated with public health and economic stability. This approach also enhances transparency in governmental decision-making by establishing a well-defined reward function for the reinforcement learning agent. In essence, this study introduces an innovative and ethical strategy to navigate the challenge of balancing public health and economic stability amidst infectious disease outbreaks.

With COVID-19 having emerged as the most widespread human pandemic disease in a century, the need to control its spread to avoid massive loss of life became more than necessary, and extremely fast. Several vaccines were developed and the task of policy makers was suddenly to convince the reluctant population to be vaccinated by various means. While some countries have chosen a policy of mandatory vaccination or punitive incentives, many states in the United States have adopted various incentives to try to increase vaccination coverage. A study we conducted in recent months quantified the effect of these measures on the proportion of the population vaccinated, using the synthetic control method, by simulating what would have happened without these measures. The aim now is to generalize this study to smaller scales, to improve the results of our previous study, to quantify their robustness and to provide a tool that can be used by policy makers to adapt their behavior in light of the results obtained.

In the realm of public health, vaccination stands as the cornerstone for mitigating disease risks and controlling their proliferation. The recent COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted how vaccines play a crucial role in keeping us safe. However the situation involves a mix of perspectives, with skepticism towards vaccines prevailing for various reasons such as political dynamics, apprehensions about side effects, and more. The paper addresses the challenge of comprehensively understanding and categorizing these diverse concerns expressed in the context of vaccination. Our focus is on developing a robust multi-label classifier capable of assigning specific concern labels to tweets based on the articulated apprehensions towards vaccines. To achieve this, we delve into the application of a diverse set of advanced natural language processing techniques and machine learning algorithms including transformer models like BERT, state of the art GPT 3.5, Classifier Chains & traditional methods like SVM, Random Forest, Naive Bayes. We see that the cutting-edge large language model outperforms all other methods in this context.

Vaccine hesitancy has been a common concern, probably since vaccines were created and, with the popularisation of social media, people started to express their concerns about vaccines online alongside those posting pro- and anti-vaccine content. Predictably, since the first mentions of a COVID-19 vaccine, social media users posted about their fears and concerns or about their support and belief into the effectiveness of these rapidly developing vaccines. Identifying and understanding the reasons behind public hesitancy towards COVID-19 vaccines is important for policy markers that need to develop actions to better inform the population with the aim of increasing vaccine take-up. In the case of COVID-19, where the fast development of the vaccines was mirrored closely by growth in anti-vaxx disinformation, automatic means of detecting citizen attitudes towards vaccination became necessary. This is an important computational social sciences task that requires data analysis in order to gain in-depth understanding of the phenomena at hand. Annotated data is also necessary for training data-driven models for more nuanced analysis of attitudes towards vaccination. To this end, we created a new collection of over 3,101 tweets annotated with users' attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination (stance). Besides, we also develop a domain-specific language model (VaxxBERT) that achieves the best predictive performance (73.0 accuracy and 69.3 F1-score) as compared to a robust set of baselines. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first dataset and model that model vaccine hesitancy as a category distinct from pro- and anti-vaccine stance.

We present an approach to mitigating the risks of malicious image editing posed by large diffusion models. The key idea is to immunize images so as to make them resistant to manipulation by these models. This immunization relies on injection of imperceptible adversarial perturbations designed to disrupt the operation of the targeted diffusion models, forcing them to generate unrealistic images. We provide two methods for crafting such perturbations, and then demonstrate their efficacy. Finally, we discuss a policy component necessary to make our approach fully effective and practical -- one that involves the organizations developing diffusion models, rather than individual users, to implement (and support) the immunization process.

Convincing people to get vaccinated against COVID-19 is a key societal challenge in the present times. As a first step towards this goal, many prior works have relied on social media analysis to understand the specific concerns that people have towards these vaccines, such as potential side-effects, ineffectiveness, political factors, and so on. Though there are datasets that broadly classify social media posts into Anti-vax and Pro-Vax labels, there is no dataset (to our knowledge) that labels social media posts according to the specific anti-vaccine concerns mentioned in the posts. In this paper, we have curated CAVES, the first large-scale dataset containing about 10k COVID-19 anti-vaccine tweets labelled into various specific anti-vaccine concerns in a multi-label setting. This is also the first multi-label classification dataset that provides explanations for each of the labels. Additionally, the dataset also provides class-wise summaries of all the tweets. We also perform preliminary experiments on the dataset and show that this is a very challenging dataset for multi-label explainable classification and tweet summarization, as is evident by the moderate scores achieved by some state-of-the-art models. Our dataset and codes are available at: https://github.com/sohampoddar26/caves-data

Since the beginning of the vaccination trial, social media has been flooded with anti-vaccination comments and conspiracy beliefs. As the day passes, the number of COVID- 19 cases increases, and online platforms and a few news portals entertain sharing different conspiracy theories. The most popular conspiracy belief was the link between the 5G network spreading COVID-19 and the Chinese government spreading the virus as a bioweapon, which initially created racial hatred. Although some disbelief has less impact on society, others create massive destruction. For example, the 5G conspiracy led to the burn of the 5G Tower, and belief in the Chinese bioweapon story promoted an attack on the Asian-Americans. Another popular conspiracy belief was that Bill Gates spread this Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) by launching a mass vaccination program to track everyone. This Conspiracy belief creates distrust issues among laypeople and creates vaccine hesitancy. This study aims to discover the conspiracy theory against the vaccine on social platforms. We performed a sentiment analysis on the 598 unique sample comments related to COVID-19 vaccines. We used two different models, BERT and Perspective API, to find out the sentiment and toxicity of the sentence toward the COVID-19 vaccine.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly improved text generation capabilities. However, they also present challenges, particularly in generating vaccine-related misinformation, which poses risks to public health. Despite research on human-authored misinformation, a notable gap remains in understanding how LLMs contribute to vaccine misinformation and how best to detect it. Existing benchmarks often overlook vaccine-specific misinformation and the diverse roles of misinformation spreaders. This paper introduces VaxGuard, a novel dataset designed to address these challenges. VaxGuard includes vaccine-related misinformation generated by multiple LLMs and provides a comprehensive framework for detecting misinformation across various roles. Our findings show that GPT-3.5 and GPT-4o consistently outperform other LLMs in detecting misinformation, especially when dealing with subtle or emotionally charged narratives. On the other hand, PHI3 and Mistral show lower performance, struggling with precision and recall in fear-driven contexts. Additionally, detection performance tends to decline as input text length increases, indicating the need for improved methods to handle larger content. These results highlight the importance of role-specific detection strategies and suggest that VaxGuard can serve as a key resource for improving the detection of LLM-generated vaccine misinformation.

Generative AI models often learn and reproduce false information present in their training corpora. This position paper argues that, analogous to biological immunization, where controlled exposure to a weakened pathogen builds immunity, AI models should be fine tuned on small, quarantined sets of explicitly labeled falsehoods as a "vaccine" against misinformation. These curated false examples are periodically injected during finetuning, strengthening the model ability to recognize and reject misleading claims while preserving accuracy on truthful inputs. An illustrative case study shows that immunized models generate substantially less misinformation than baselines. To our knowledge, this is the first training framework that treats fact checked falsehoods themselves as a supervised vaccine, rather than relying on input perturbations or generic human feedback signals, to harden models against future misinformation. We also outline ethical safeguards and governance controls to ensure the safe use of false data. Model immunization offers a proactive paradigm for aligning AI systems with factuality.

One way to personalize chatbot interactions is by establishing common ground with the intended reader. A domain where establishing mutual understanding could be particularly impactful is vaccine concerns and misinformation. Vaccine interventions are forms of messaging which aim to answer concerns expressed about vaccination. Tailoring responses in this domain is difficult, since opinions often have seemingly little ideological overlap. We define the task of tailoring vaccine interventions to a Common-Ground Opinion (CGO). Tailoring responses to a CGO involves meaningfully improving the answer by relating it to an opinion or belief the reader holds. In this paper we introduce TAILOR-CGO, a dataset for evaluating how well responses are tailored to provided CGOs. We benchmark several major LLMs on this task; finding GPT-4-Turbo performs significantly better than others. We also build automatic evaluation metrics, including an efficient and accurate BERT model that outperforms finetuned LLMs, investigate how to successfully tailor vaccine messaging to CGOs, and provide actionable recommendations from this investigation. Code and model weights: https://github.com/rickardstureborg/tailor-cgo Dataset: https://huggingface.co/datasets/DukeNLP/tailor-cgo

Respiratory viral infections pose a global health burden, yet the cellular immune responses driving protection or pathology remain unclear. Natural infection cohorts often lack pre-exposure baseline data and structured temporal sampling. In contrast, inoculation and vaccination trials generate insightful longitudinal transcriptomic data. However, the scattering of these datasets across platforms, along with inconsistent metadata and preprocessing procedure, hinders AI-driven discovery. To address these challenges, we developed the Human Respiratory Viral Immunization LongitudinAl Gene Expression (HR-VILAGE-3K3M) repository: an AI-ready, rigorously curated dataset that integrates 14,136 RNA-seq profiles from 3,178 subjects across 66 studies encompassing over 2.56 million cells. Spanning vaccination, inoculation, and mixed exposures, the dataset includes microarray, bulk RNA-seq, and single-cell RNA-seq from whole blood, PBMCs, and nasal swabs, sourced from GEO, ImmPort, and ArrayExpress. We harmonized subject-level metadata, standardized outcome measures, applied unified preprocessing pipelines with rigorous quality control, and aligned all data to official gene symbols. To demonstrate the utility of HR-VILAGE-3K3M, we performed predictive modeling of vaccine responders and evaluated batch-effect correction methods. Beyond these initial demonstrations, it supports diverse systems immunology applications and benchmarking of feature selection and transfer learning algorithms. Its scale and heterogeneity also make it ideal for pretraining foundation models of the human immune response and for advancing multimodal learning frameworks. As the largest longitudinal transcriptomic resource for human respiratory viral immunization, it provides an accessible platform for reproducible AI-driven research, accelerating systems immunology and vaccine development against emerging viral threats.

Model immunization aims to pre-train models that are difficult to fine-tune on harmful tasks while retaining their utility on other non-harmful tasks. Though prior work has shown empirical evidence for immunizing text-to-image models, the key understanding of when immunization is possible and a precise definition of an immunized model remain unclear. In this work, we propose a framework, based on the condition number of a Hessian matrix, to analyze model immunization for linear models. Building on this framework, we design an algorithm with regularization terms to control the resulting condition numbers after pre-training. Empirical results on linear models and non-linear deep-nets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm on model immunization. The code is available at https://github.com/amberyzheng/model-immunization-cond-num.

Breast Cancer is a major public health problem and the most common diagnosed malignancy in woman. There have been significant developments in clinical approaches and theoretical experimental to understand the interactions of cancer cells dynamics with the immune system, also developments on analytical and computational models to help provide insights into clinical observations for a better understanding of cancer cells, but more are needed, especially at the genetic and molecular levels mathematically. Treatments such as immunotherapy, chemotherapy, hormone therapy, radiotherapy, and gene therapy are the main strategies in the fight against breast cancer. The present study aims at investigating the effects of estrogen derived from recent models, but this time combined with immunotherapy as a way to treat or inhibit the cancer growth by a mathematical model of breast cancer in situ, governed by a simplified model of nonlinear-coupled ordinary differential equations, that combines important interactions between natural cells, tumor cells, immune cells, ketogenic diet in the presence of an anticancer drug. Another contribution was to introduce the inhibition effect epsilon for new results and conclusions, A qualitative study was performed and biological interpretations were included to understand the conditions of stability in a realistic way.

Identifying the frames of news is important to understand the articles' vision, intention, message to be conveyed, and which aspects of the news are emphasized. Framing is a widely studied concept in journalism, and has emerged as a new topic in computing, with the potential to automate processes and facilitate the work of journalism professionals. In this paper, we study this issue with articles related to the Covid-19 anti-vaccine movement. First, to understand the perspectives used to treat this theme, we developed a protocol for human labeling of frames for 1786 headlines of No-Vax movement articles of European newspapers from 5 countries. Headlines are key units in the written press, and worth of analysis as many people only read headlines (or use them to guide their decision for further reading.) Second, considering advances in Natural Language Processing (NLP) with large language models, we investigated two approaches for frame inference of news headlines: first with a GPT-3.5 fine-tuning approach, and second with GPT-3.5 prompt-engineering. Our work contributes to the study and analysis of the performance that these models have to facilitate journalistic tasks like classification of frames, while understanding whether the models are able to replicate human perception in the identification of these frames.

Background: Social media platforms have become a viable source of medical information, with patients and healthcare professionals using them to share health-related information and track diseases. Similarly, YouTube, the largest video-sharing platform in the world contains vlogs where individuals talk about their illnesses. The aim of our study was to investigate the use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to identify the spoken content of YouTube vlogs related to the diagnosis of Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) for public health screening. Methods: COVID-19 videos on YouTube were searched using relevant keywords. A total of 1000 videos being spoken in English were downloaded out of which 791 were classified as vlogs, 192 were non-vlogs, and 17 were deleted by the channel. The videos were converted into a textual format using Microsoft Streams. The textual data was preprocessed using basic and advanced preprocessing methods. A lexicon of 200 words was created which contained words related to COVID-19. The data was analyzed using topic modeling, word clouds, and lexicon matching. Results: The word cloud results revealed discussions about COVID-19 symptoms like "fever", along with generic terms such as "mask" and "isolation". Lexical analysis demonstrated that in 96.46% of videos, patients discussed generic terms, and in 95.45% of videos, people talked about COVID-19 symptoms. LDA Topic Modeling results also generated topics that successfully captured key themes and content related to our investigation of COVID-19 diagnoses in YouTube vlogs. Conclusion: By leveraging NLP techniques on YouTube vlogs public health practitioners can enhance their ability to mitigate the effects of pandemics and effectively respond to public health challenges.

Current image immunization defense techniques against diffusion-based editing embed imperceptible noise into target images to disrupt editing models. However, these methods face scalability challenges, as they require time-consuming optimization for each image separately, taking hours for small batches. To address these challenges, we introduce DiffVax, a scalable, lightweight, and optimization-free framework for image immunization, specifically designed to prevent diffusion-based editing. Our approach enables effective generalization to unseen content, reducing computational costs and cutting immunization time from days to milliseconds, achieving a speedup of 250,000x. This is achieved through a loss term that ensures the failure of editing attempts and the imperceptibility of the perturbations. Extensive qualitative and quantitative results demonstrate that our model is scalable, optimization-free, adaptable to various diffusion-based editing tools, robust against counter-attacks, and, for the first time, effectively protects video content from editing. More details are available in https://diffvax.github.io/ .

We present CoNTACT: a Dutch language model adapted to the domain of COVID-19 tweets. The model was developed by continuing the pre-training phase of RobBERT (Delobelle, 2020) by using 2.8M Dutch COVID-19 related tweets posted in 2021. In order to test the performance of the model and compare it to RobBERT, the two models were tested on two tasks: (1) binary vaccine hesitancy detection and (2) detection of arguments for vaccine hesitancy. For both tasks, not only Twitter but also Facebook data was used to show cross-genre performance. In our experiments, CoNTACT showed statistically significant gains over RobBERT in all experiments for task 1. For task 2, we observed substantial improvements in virtually all classes in all experiments. An error analysis indicated that the domain adaptation yielded better representations of domain-specific terminology, causing CoNTACT to make more accurate classification decisions.

Persuasion plays a pivotal role in a wide range of applications from health intervention to the promotion of social good. Persuasive chatbots can accelerate the positive effects of persuasion in such applications. Existing methods rely on fine-tuning persuasive chatbots with task-specific training data which is costly, if not infeasible, to collect. To address this issue, we propose a method to leverage the generalizability and inherent persuasive abilities of large language models (LLMs) in creating effective and truthful persuasive chatbot for any given domain in a zero-shot manner. Unlike previous studies which used pre-defined persuasion strategies, our method first uses an LLM to generate responses, then extracts the strategies used on the fly, and replaces any unsubstantiated claims in the response with retrieved facts supporting the strategies. We applied our chatbot, PersuaBot, to three significantly different domains needing persuasion skills: donation solicitation, recommendations, and health intervention. Our experiments on simulated and human conversations show that our zero-shot approach is more persuasive than prior work, while achieving factual accuracy surpassing state-of-the-art knowledge-oriented chatbots. Our study demonstrated that when persuasive chatbots are employed responsibly for social good, it is an enabler of positive individual and social change.

A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for difference in the transmission rate of infection to a susceptible by a carrier and an infective. It is generalized to allow a proportion ({\phi}) of those susceptibles infected to progress directly to infectives in stage I. Both models are used in this study. The threshold conditions for the spread of carrier and infectives in stage I are derived for the two models. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reproductive number derived from the next generation matrix. The case-carrier ratio profile for various parameters and threshold values are shown. So also are the graphs of the total number ever infected as influenced by {\epsilon} and {\phi}. The infection transmission rate (eta), the odds in favor of a carrier, over an infective, in transmitting an infection to a susceptible ({\epsilon}) and the carrier conversion rate ({\phi}) to an infective in stage I, are identified as key parameters that should be subject of attention for any control intervention strategy. The case-carrier ratio profiles provide evidence of a critical case-carrier ratio attained before the number of reported cases grows to an epidemic level. They also provide visual evidence of epidemiological context, in this case, epidemic incidence (in later part of dry season) and endemic incidence (during rainy season). Results from total proportion ever infected suggest that the model, in which {\phi}=0 obtained, can adequately represent, in essence, the generalized model for this study.

This paper introduces a multilingual dataset of COVID-19 vaccine misinformation, consisting of annotated tweets from three middle-income countries: Brazil, Indonesia, and Nigeria. The expertly curated dataset includes annotations for 5,952 tweets, assessing their relevance to COVID-19 vaccines, presence of misinformation, and the themes of the misinformation. To address challenges posed by domain specificity, the low-resource setting, and data imbalance, we adopt two approaches for developing COVID-19 vaccine misinformation detection models: domain-specific pre-training and text augmentation using a large language model. Our best misinformation detection models demonstrate improvements ranging from 2.7 to 15.9 percentage points in macro F1-score compared to the baseline models. Additionally, we apply our misinformation detection models in a large-scale study of 19 million unlabeled tweets from the three countries between 2020 and 2022, showcasing the practical application of our dataset and models for detecting and analyzing vaccine misinformation in multiple countries and languages. Our analysis indicates that percentage changes in the number of new COVID-19 cases are positively associated with COVID-19 vaccine misinformation rates in a staggered manner for Brazil and Indonesia, and there are significant positive associations between the misinformation rates across the three countries.

Clinical trials disruption has always represented a non negligible part of the ending of interventional studies. While the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to an impressive and unprecedented initiation of clinical research, it has also led to considerable disruption of clinical trials in other disease areas, with around 80% of non-COVID-19 trials stopped or interrupted during the pandemic. In many cases the disrupted trials will not have the planned statistical power necessary to yield interpretable results. This paper describes methods to compensate for the information loss arising from trial disruptions by incorporating additional information available from auxiliary data sources. The methods described include the use of auxiliary data on baseline and early outcome data available from the trial itself and frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the incorporation of information from external data sources. The methods are illustrated by application to the analysis of artificial data based on the Primary care pediatrics Learning Activity Nutrition (PLAN) study, a clinical trial assessing a diet and exercise intervention for overweight children, that was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We show how all of the methods proposed lead to an increase in precision relative to use of complete case data only.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) is highly contagious with limited treatment options. Early and accurate diagnosis of Covid-19 is crucial in reducing the spread of the disease and its accompanied mortality. Currently, detection by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is the gold standard of outpatient and inpatient detection of Covid-19. RT-PCR is a rapid method, however, its accuracy in detection is only ~70-75%. Another approved strategy is computed tomography (CT) imaging. CT imaging has a much higher sensitivity of ~80-98%, but similar accuracy of 70%. To enhance the accuracy of CT imaging detection, we developed an open-source set of algorithms called CovidCTNet that successfully differentiates Covid-19 from community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) and other lung diseases. CovidCTNet increases the accuracy of CT imaging detection to 90% compared to radiologists (70%). The model is designed to work with heterogeneous and small sample sizes independent of the CT imaging hardware. In order to facilitate the detection of Covid-19 globally and assist radiologists and physicians in the screening process, we are releasing all algorithms and parametric details in an open-source format. Open-source sharing of our CovidCTNet enables developers to rapidly improve and optimize services, while preserving user privacy and data ownership.

The way people respond to messaging from public health organizations on social media can provide insight into public perceptions on critical health issues, especially during a global crisis such as COVID-19. It could be valuable for high-impact organizations such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or the World Health Organization (WHO) to understand how these perceptions impact reception of messaging on health policy recommendations. We collect two datasets of public health messages and their responses from Twitter relating to COVID-19 and Vaccines, and introduce a predictive method which can be used to explore the potential reception of such messages. Specifically, we harness a generative model (GPT-2) to directly predict probable future responses and demonstrate how it can be used to optimize expected reception of important health guidance. Finally, we introduce a novel evaluation scheme with extensive statistical testing which allows us to conclude that our models capture the semantics and sentiment found in actual public health responses.

The COVID-19 pandemic has made a huge global impact and cost millions of lives. As COVID-19 vaccines were rolled out, they were quickly met with widespread hesitancy. To address the concerns of hesitant people, we launched VIRA, a public dialogue system aimed at addressing questions and concerns surrounding the COVID-19 vaccines. Here, we release VIRADialogs, a dataset of over 8k dialogues conducted by actual users with VIRA, providing a unique real-world conversational dataset. In light of rapid changes in users' intents, due to updates in guidelines or in response to new information, we highlight the important task of intent discovery in this use-case. We introduce a novel automatic evaluation framework for intent discovery, leveraging the existing intent classifier of VIRA. We use this framework to report baseline intent discovery results over VIRADialogs, that highlight the difficulty of this task.