Daily Papers

Embodied agents face significant challenges when tasked with performing actions in diverse environments, particularly in generalizing across object types and executing suitable actions to accomplish tasks. Furthermore, agents should exhibit robustness, minimizing the execution of illegal actions. In this work, we present Egocentric Planning, an innovative approach that combines symbolic planning and Object-oriented POMDPs to solve tasks in complex environments, harnessing existing models for visual perception and natural language processing. We evaluated our approach in ALFRED, a simulated environment designed for domestic tasks, and demonstrated its high scalability, achieving an impressive 36.07% unseen success rate in the ALFRED benchmark and winning the ALFRED challenge at CVPR Embodied AI workshop. Our method requires reliable perception and the specification or learning of a symbolic description of the preconditions and effects of the agent's actions, as well as what object types reveal information about others. It is capable of naturally scaling to solve new tasks beyond ALFRED, as long as they can be solved using the available skills. This work offers a solid baseline for studying end-to-end and hybrid methods that aim to generalize to new tasks, including recent approaches relying on LLMs, but often struggle to scale to long sequences of actions or produce robust plans for novel tasks.

Building a conversational embodied agent to execute real-life tasks has been a long-standing yet quite challenging research goal, as it requires effective human-agent communication, multi-modal understanding, long-range sequential decision making, etc. Traditional symbolic methods have scaling and generalization issues, while end-to-end deep learning models suffer from data scarcity and high task complexity, and are often hard to explain. To benefit from both worlds, we propose JARVIS, a neuro-symbolic commonsense reasoning framework for modular, generalizable, and interpretable conversational embodied agents. First, it acquires symbolic representations by prompting large language models (LLMs) for language understanding and sub-goal planning, and by constructing semantic maps from visual observations. Then the symbolic module reasons for sub-goal planning and action generation based on task- and action-level common sense. Extensive experiments on the TEACh dataset validate the efficacy and efficiency of our JARVIS framework, which achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on all three dialog-based embodied tasks, including Execution from Dialog History (EDH), Trajectory from Dialog (TfD), and Two-Agent Task Completion (TATC) (e.g., our method boosts the unseen Success Rate on EDH from 6.1\% to 15.8\%). Moreover, we systematically analyze the essential factors that affect the task performance and also demonstrate the superiority of our method in few-shot settings. Our JARVIS model ranks first in the Alexa Prize SimBot Public Benchmark Challenge.

Current vision-language-action (VLA) models, pre-trained on large-scale robotic data, exhibit strong multi-task capabilities and generalize well to variations in visual and language instructions for manipulation. However, their success rate drops significantly when faced with object concepts outside the training data, such as unseen object descriptions and textures in the dataset. To address this, we propose a novel agentic framework, VLA^2, which leverages OpenVLA as the execution backbone and effectively leverages external modules such as web retrieval and object detection to provide visual and textual knowledge about target objects to the VLA. This approach mitigates generalization failure when handling out-of-distribution objects. Based on the LIBERO simulation environment, we introduced novel objects and object descriptions to construct a new evaluation benchmark with three difficulty levels to test the effectiveness of our method. Our framework successfully outperformed the current state-of-the-art models on our designed hard-level generalization benchmark. Compared to the standalone OpenVLA baseline, VLA^2 achieves a 44.2% improvement in the success rate in the hard-level benchmark and an average improvement of 20.2% in all customized environments without any performance degradation on in-domain tasks. Project website: https://vla-2.github.io.

Research on autonomous surgery has largely focused on simple task automation in controlled environments. However, real-world surgical applications demand dexterous manipulation over extended durations and generalization to the inherent variability of human tissue. These challenges remain difficult to address using existing logic-based or conventional end-to-end learning approaches. To address this gap, we propose a hierarchical framework for performing dexterous, long-horizon surgical steps. Our approach utilizes a high-level policy for task planning and a low-level policy for generating robot trajectories. The high-level planner plans in language space, generating task-level or corrective instructions that guide the robot through the long-horizon steps and correct for the low-level policy's errors. We validate our framework through ex vivo experiments on cholecystectomy, a commonly-practiced minimally invasive procedure, and conduct ablation studies to evaluate key components of the system. Our method achieves a 100\% success rate across eight unseen ex vivo gallbladders, operating fully autonomously without human intervention. This work demonstrates step-level autonomy in a surgical procedure, marking a milestone toward clinical deployment of autonomous surgical systems.

Simulation offers a scalable and low-cost way to enrich vision-language-action (VLA) training, reducing reliance on expensive real-robot demonstrations. However, most sim-real co-training methods rely on supervised fine-tuning (SFT), which treats simulation as a static source of demonstrations and does not exploit large-scale closed-loop interaction. Consequently, real-world gains and generalization are often limited. In this paper, we propose an \textit{RL}-based sim-real \textit{Co}-training (RL-Co) framework that leverages interactive simulation while preserving real-world capabilities. Our method follows a generic two-stage design: we first warm-start the policy with SFT on a mixture of real and simulated demonstrations, then fine-tune it with reinforcement learning in simulation while adding an auxiliary supervised loss on real-world data to anchor the policy and mitigate catastrophic forgetting. We evaluate our framework on four real-world tabletop manipulation tasks using two representative VLA architectures, OpenVLA and π_{0.5}, and observe consistent improvements over real-only fine-tuning and SFT-based co-training, including +24% real-world success on OpenVLA and +20% on π_{0.5}. Beyond higher success rates, RL co-training yields stronger generalization to unseen task variations and substantially improved real-world data efficiency, providing a practical and scalable pathway for leveraging simulation to enhance real-robot deployment.

Despite great strides in language-guided manipulation, existing work has been constrained to table-top settings. Table-tops allow for perfect and consistent camera angles, properties are that do not hold in mobile manipulation. Task plans that involve moving around the environment must be robust to egocentric views and changes in the plane and angle of grasp. A further challenge is ensuring this is all true while still being able to learn skills efficiently from limited data. We propose Spatial-Language Attention Policies (SLAP) as a solution. SLAP uses three-dimensional tokens as the input representation to train a single multi-task, language-conditioned action prediction policy. Our method shows an 80% success rate in the real world across eight tasks with a single model, and a 47.5% success rate when unseen clutter and unseen object configurations are introduced, even with only a handful of examples per task. This represents an improvement of 30% over prior work (20% given unseen distractors and configurations). We see a 4x improvement over baseline in mobile manipulation setting. In addition, we show how SLAPs robustness allows us to execute Task Plans from open-vocabulary instructions using a large language model for multi-step mobile manipulation. For videos, see the website: https://robotslap.github.io

MLLM agents demonstrate potential for complex embodied tasks by retrieving multimodal task-relevant trajectory data. However, current retrieval methods primarily focus on surface-level similarities of textual or visual cues in trajectories, neglecting their effectiveness for the specific task at hand. To address this issue, we propose a novel method, MLLM as ReTriever (MART), which enhances the performance of embodied agents by utilizing interaction data to fine-tune an MLLM retriever based on preference learning, such that the retriever fully considers the effectiveness of trajectories and prioritize them for unseen tasks. We also introduce Trajectory Abstraction, a mechanism that leverages MLLMs' summarization capabilities to represent trajectories with fewer tokens while preserving key information, enabling agents to better comprehend milestones in the trajectory. Experimental results across various environments demonstrate our method significantly improves task success rates in unseen scenes compared to baseline methods. This work presents a new paradigm for multimodal retrieval in embodied agents, by fine-tuning a general-purpose MLLM as the retriever to assess trajectory effectiveness. All benchmark task sets and simulator code modifications for action and observation spaces will be released.

Jailbreaking large-language models (LLMs) involves testing their robustness against adversarial prompts and evaluating their ability to withstand prompt attacks that could elicit unauthorized or malicious responses. In this paper, we present TurboFuzzLLM, a mutation-based fuzzing technique for efficiently finding a collection of effective jailbreaking templates that, when combined with harmful questions, can lead a target LLM to produce harmful responses through black-box access via user prompts. We describe the limitations of directly applying existing template-based attacking techniques in practice, and present functional and efficiency-focused upgrades we added to mutation-based fuzzing to generate effective jailbreaking templates automatically. TurboFuzzLLM achieves geq 95\% attack success rates (ASR) on public datasets for leading LLMs (including GPT-4o \& GPT-4 Turbo), shows impressive generalizability to unseen harmful questions, and helps in improving model defenses to prompt attacks. TurboFuzzLLM is available open source at https://github.com/amazon-science/TurboFuzzLLM.

Model-based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) has emerged as a promising paradigm for autonomous driving, where data efficiency and robustness are critical. Yet, existing solutions often rely on carefully crafted, task specific extrinsic rewards, limiting generalization to new tasks or environments. In this paper, we propose InDRiVE (Intrinsic Disagreement based Reinforcement for Vehicle Exploration), a method that leverages purely intrinsic, disagreement based rewards within a Dreamer based MBRL framework. By training an ensemble of world models, the agent actively explores high uncertainty regions of environments without any task specific feedback. This approach yields a task agnostic latent representation, allowing for rapid zero shot or few shot fine tuning on downstream driving tasks such as lane following and collision avoidance. Experimental results in both seen and unseen environments demonstrate that InDRiVE achieves higher success rates and fewer infractions compared to DreamerV2 and DreamerV3 baselines despite using significantly fewer training steps. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of purely intrinsic exploration for learning robust vehicle control behaviors, paving the way for more scalable and adaptable autonomous driving systems.

Recently, natural language has been the primary medium for human-robot interaction. However, its inherent lack of spatial precision introduces challenges for robotic task definition such as ambiguity and verbosity. Moreover, in some public settings where quiet is required, such as libraries or hospitals, verbal communication with robots is inappropriate. To address these limitations, we introduce the Robotic Visual Instruction (RoVI), a novel paradigm to guide robotic tasks through an object-centric, hand-drawn symbolic representation. RoVI effectively encodes spatial-temporal information into human-interpretable visual instructions through 2D sketches, utilizing arrows, circles, colors, and numbers to direct 3D robotic manipulation. To enable robots to understand RoVI better and generate precise actions based on RoVI, we present Visual Instruction Embodied Workflow (VIEW), a pipeline formulated for RoVI-conditioned policies. This approach leverages Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to interpret RoVI inputs, decode spatial and temporal constraints from 2D pixel space via keypoint extraction, and then transform them into executable 3D action sequences. We additionally curate a specialized dataset of 15K instances to fine-tune small VLMs for edge deployment,enabling them to effectively learn RoVI capabilities. Our approach is rigorously validated across 11 novel tasks in both real and simulated environments, demonstrating significant generalization capability. Notably, VIEW achieves an 87.5% success rate in real-world scenarios involving unseen tasks that feature multi-step actions, with disturbances, and trajectory-following requirements. Project website: https://robotic-visual-instruction.github.io/

Despite recent progress, learning new tasks through language instructions remains an extremely challenging problem. On the ALFRED benchmark for task learning, the published state-of-the-art system only achieves a task success rate of less than 10% in an unseen environment, compared to the human performance of over 90%. To address this issue, this paper takes a closer look at task learning. In a departure from a widely applied end-to-end architecture, we decomposed task learning into three sub-problems: sub-goal planning, scene navigation, and object manipulation; and developed a model HiTUT (stands for Hierarchical Tasks via Unified Transformers) that addresses each sub-problem in a unified manner to learn a hierarchical task structure. On the ALFRED benchmark, HiTUT has achieved the best performance with a remarkably higher generalization ability. In the unseen environment, HiTUT achieves over 160% performance gain in success rate compared to the previous state of the art. The explicit representation of task structures also enables an in-depth understanding of the nature of the problem and the ability of the agent, which provides insight for future benchmark development and evaluation.

We introduce NitroGen, a vision-action foundation model for generalist gaming agents that is trained on 40,000 hours of gameplay videos across more than 1,000 games. We incorporate three key ingredients: 1) an internet-scale video-action dataset constructed by automatically extracting player actions from publicly available gameplay videos, 2) a multi-game benchmark environment that can measure cross-game generalization, and 3) a unified vision-action model trained with large-scale behavior cloning. NitroGen exhibits strong competence across diverse domains, including combat encounters in 3D action games, high-precision control in 2D platformers, and exploration in procedurally generated worlds. It transfers effectively to unseen games, achieving up to 52% relative improvement in task success rates over models trained from scratch. We release the dataset, evaluation suite, and model weights to advance research on generalist embodied agents.

We present Game-TARS, a generalist game agent trained with a unified, scalable action space anchored to human-aligned native keyboard-mouse inputs. Unlike API- or GUI-based approaches, this paradigm enables large-scale continual pre-training across heterogeneous domains, including OS, web, and simulation games. Game-TARS is pre-trained on over 500B tokens with diverse trajectories and multimodal data. Key techniques include a decaying continual loss to reduce causal confusion and an efficient Sparse-Thinking strategy that balances reasoning depth and inference cost. Experiments show that Game-TARS achieves about 2 times the success rate over the previous sota model on open-world Minecraft tasks, is close to the generality of fresh humans in unseen web 3d games, and outperforms GPT-5, Gemini-2.5-Pro, and Claude-4-Sonnet in FPS benchmarks. Scaling results on training-time and test-time confirm that the unified action space sustains improvements when scaled to cross-game and multimodal data. Our results demonstrate that simple, scalable action representations combined with large-scale pre-training provide a promising path toward generalist agents with broad computer-use abilities.

Robotic grasping in cluttered environments remains a significant challenge due to occlusions and complex object arrangements. We have developed ThinkGrasp, a plug-and-play vision-language grasping system that makes use of GPT-4o's advanced contextual reasoning for heavy clutter environment grasping strategies. ThinkGrasp can effectively identify and generate grasp poses for target objects, even when they are heavily obstructed or nearly invisible, by using goal-oriented language to guide the removal of obstructing objects. This approach progressively uncovers the target object and ultimately grasps it with a few steps and a high success rate. In both simulated and real experiments, ThinkGrasp achieved a high success rate and significantly outperformed state-of-the-art methods in heavily cluttered environments or with diverse unseen objects, demonstrating strong generalization capabilities.

Generative pre-trained models have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in language and vision domains by learning useful representations. In this paper, we extend the scope of this effectiveness by showing that visual robot manipulation can significantly benefit from large-scale video generative pre-training. We introduce GR-1, a straightforward GPT-style model designed for multi-task language-conditioned visual robot manipulation. GR-1 takes as inputs a language instruction, a sequence of observation images, and a sequence of robot states. It predicts robot actions as well as future images in an end-to-end manner. Thanks to a flexible design, GR-1 can be seamlessly finetuned on robot data after pre-trained on a large-scale video dataset. We perform extensive experiments on the challenging CALVIN benchmark and a real robot. On CALVIN benchmark, our method outperforms state-of-the-art baseline methods and improves the success rate from 88.9% to 94.9%. In the setting of zero-shot unseen scene generalization, GR-1 improves the success rate from 53.3% to 85.4%. In real robot experiments, GR-1 also outperforms baseline methods and shows strong potentials in generalization to unseen scenes and objects. We provide inaugural evidence that a unified GPT-style transformer, augmented with large-scale video generative pre-training, exhibits remarkable generalization to multi-task visual robot manipulation. Project page: https://GR1-Manipulation.github.io

Robust grasping of various objects from single-view perception is fundamental for dexterous robots. Previous works often rely on fully observable objects, expert demonstrations, or static grasping poses, which restrict their generalization ability and adaptability to external disturbances. In this paper, we present a reinforcement-learning-based framework that enables zero-shot dynamic dexterous grasping of a wide range of unseen objects from single-view perception, while performing adaptive motions to external disturbances. We utilize a hand-centric object representation for shape feature extraction that emphasizes interaction-relevant local shapes, enhancing robustness to shape variance and uncertainty. To enable effective hand adaptation to disturbances with limited observations, we propose a mixed curriculum learning strategy, which first utilizes imitation learning to distill a policy trained with privileged real-time visual-tactile feedback, and gradually transfers to reinforcement learning to learn adaptive motions under disturbances caused by observation noises and dynamic randomization. Our experiments demonstrate strong generalization in grasping unseen objects with random poses, achieving success rates of 97.0% across 247,786 simulated objects and 94.6% across 512 real objects. We also demonstrate the robustness of our method to various disturbances, including unobserved object movement and external forces, through both quantitative and qualitative evaluations. Project Page: https://zdchan.github.io/Robust_DexGrasp/

Dexterous grasping remains a fundamental yet challenging problem in robotics. A general-purpose robot must be capable of grasping diverse objects in arbitrary scenarios. However, existing research typically relies on specific assumptions, such as single-object settings or limited environments, leading to constrained generalization. Our solution is DexGraspVLA, a hierarchical framework that utilizes a pre-trained Vision-Language model as the high-level task planner and learns a diffusion-based policy as the low-level Action controller. The key insight lies in iteratively transforming diverse language and visual inputs into domain-invariant representations, where imitation learning can be effectively applied due to the alleviation of domain shift. Thus, it enables robust generalization across a wide range of real-world scenarios. Notably, our method achieves a 90+% success rate under thousands of unseen object, lighting, and background combinations in a ``zero-shot'' environment. Empirical analysis further confirms the consistency of internal model behavior across environmental variations, thereby validating our design and explaining its generalization performance. We hope our work can be a step forward in achieving general dexterous grasping. Our demo and code can be found at https://dexgraspvla.github.io/.

AI-generated images have reached a quality level at which humans are incapable of reliably distinguishing them from real images. To counteract the inherent risk of fraud and disinformation, the detection of AI-generated images is a pressing challenge and an active research topic. While many of the presented methods claim to achieve high detection accuracy, they are usually evaluated under idealized conditions. In particular, the adversarial robustness is often neglected, potentially due to a lack of awareness or the substantial effort required to conduct a comprehensive robustness analysis. In this work, we tackle this problem by providing a simpler means to assess the robustness of AI-generated image detectors. We present RAID (Robust evaluation of AI-generated image Detectors), a dataset of 72k diverse and highly transferable adversarial examples. The dataset is created by running attacks against an ensemble of seven state-of-the-art detectors and images generated by four different text-to-image models. Extensive experiments show that our methodology generates adversarial images that transfer with a high success rate to unseen detectors, which can be used to quickly provide an approximate yet still reliable estimate of a detector's adversarial robustness. Our findings indicate that current state-of-the-art AI-generated image detectors can be easily deceived by adversarial examples, highlighting the critical need for the development of more robust methods. We release our dataset at https://huggingface.co/datasets/aimagelab/RAID and evaluation code at https://github.com/pralab/RAID.

We show that large language models (LLMs) can be adapted to be generalizable policies for embodied visual tasks. Our approach, called Large LAnguage model Reinforcement Learning Policy (LLaRP), adapts a pre-trained frozen LLM to take as input text instructions and visual egocentric observations and output actions directly in the environment. Using reinforcement learning, we train LLaRP to see and act solely through environmental interactions. We show that LLaRP is robust to complex paraphrasings of task instructions and can generalize to new tasks that require novel optimal behavior. In particular, on 1,000 unseen tasks it achieves 42% success rate, 1.7x the success rate of other common learned baselines or zero-shot applications of LLMs. Finally, to aid the community in studying language conditioned, massively multi-task, embodied AI problems we release a novel benchmark, Language Rearrangement, consisting of 150,000 training and 1,000 testing tasks for language-conditioned rearrangement. Video examples of LLaRP in unseen Language Rearrangement instructions are at https://llm-rl.github.io.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is an efficient alignment technique that steers LLMs towards preferable outputs by training on preference data, bypassing the need for explicit reward models. Its simplicity enables easy adaptation to various domains and safety requirements. This paper examines DPO's effectiveness in model safety against jailbreaking attacks while minimizing data requirements and training costs. We introduce Egida, a dataset expanded from multiple sources, which includes 27 different safety topics and 18 different attack styles, complemented with synthetic and human labels. This data is used to boost the safety of state-of-the-art LLMs (Llama-3.1-8B/70B-Instruct, Qwen-2.5-7B/72B-Instruct) across topics and attack styles. In addition to safety evaluations, we assess their post-alignment performance degradation in general purpose tasks, and their tendency to over refusal. Following the proposed methodology, trained models reduce their Attack Success Rate by 10%-30%, using small training efforts (2,000 samples) with low computational cost (3\ for 8B models, 20 for 72B models). Safety aligned models generalize to unseen topics and attack styles, with the most successful attack style reaching a success rate around 5%. Size and family are found to strongly influence model malleability towards safety, pointing at the importance of pre-training choices. To validate our findings, a large independent assessment of human preference agreement with Llama-Guard-3-8B is conducted by the authors and the associated dataset Egida-HSafe is released. Overall, this study illustrates how affordable and accessible it is to enhance LLM safety using DPO while outlining its current limitations. All datasets and models are released to enable reproducibility and further research.

Visual navigation, a fundamental challenge in mobile robotics, demands versatile policies to handle diverse environments. Classical methods leverage geometric solutions to minimize specific costs, offering adaptability to new scenarios but are prone to system errors due to their multi-modular design and reliance on hand-crafted rules. Learning-based methods, while achieving high planning success rates, face difficulties in generalizing to unseen environments beyond the training data and often require extensive training. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach that combines the strengths of learning-based methods and classical approaches for RGB-only visual navigation. Our method first trains a conditional diffusion model on diverse path-RGB observation pairs. During inference, it integrates the gradients of differentiable scene-specific and task-level costs, guiding the diffusion model to generate valid paths that meet the constraints. This approach alleviates the need for retraining, offering a plug-and-play solution. Extensive experiments in both indoor and outdoor settings, across simulated and real-world scenarios, demonstrate zero-shot transfer capability of our approach, achieving higher success rates and fewer collisions compared to baseline methods. Code will be released at https://github.com/SYSU-RoboticsLab/NaviD.

Robot models, particularly those trained with large amounts of data, have recently shown a plethora of real-world manipulation and navigation capabilities. Several independent efforts have shown that given sufficient training data in an environment, robot policies can generalize to demonstrated variations in that environment. However, needing to finetune robot models to every new environment stands in stark contrast to models in language or vision that can be deployed zero-shot for open-world problems. In this work, we present Robot Utility Models (RUMs), a framework for training and deploying zero-shot robot policies that can directly generalize to new environments without any finetuning. To create RUMs efficiently, we develop new tools to quickly collect data for mobile manipulation tasks, integrate such data into a policy with multi-modal imitation learning, and deploy policies on-device on Hello Robot Stretch, a cheap commodity robot, with an external mLLM verifier for retrying. We train five such utility models for opening cabinet doors, opening drawers, picking up napkins, picking up paper bags, and reorienting fallen objects. Our system, on average, achieves 90% success rate in unseen, novel environments interacting with unseen objects. Moreover, the utility models can also succeed in different robot and camera set-ups with no further data, training, or fine-tuning. Primary among our lessons are the importance of training data over training algorithm and policy class, guidance about data scaling, necessity for diverse yet high-quality demonstrations, and a recipe for robot introspection and retrying to improve performance on individual environments. Our code, data, models, hardware designs, as well as our experiment and deployment videos are open sourced and can be found on our project website: https://robotutilitymodels.com

Achieving general-purpose robotic manipulation requires robots to seamlessly bridge high-level semantic intent with low-level physical interaction in unstructured environments. However, existing approaches falter in zero-shot generalization: end-to-end Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models often lack the precision required for long-horizon tasks, while traditional hierarchical planners suffer from semantic rigidity when facing open-world variations. To address this, we present UniManip, a framework grounded in a Bi-level Agentic Operational Graph (AOG) that unifies semantic reasoning and physical grounding. By coupling a high-level Agentic Layer for task orchestration with a low-level Scene Layer for dynamic state representation, the system continuously aligns abstract planning with geometric constraints, enabling robust zero-shot execution. Unlike static pipelines, UniManip operates as a dynamic agentic loop: it actively instantiates object-centric scene graphs from unstructured perception, parameterizes these representations into collision-free trajectories via a safety-aware local planner, and exploits structured memory to autonomously diagnose and recover from execution failures. Extensive experiments validate the system's robust zero-shot capability on unseen objects and tasks, demonstrating a 22.5% and 25.0% higher success rate compared to state-of-the-art VLA and hierarchical baselines, respectively. Notably, the system enables direct zero-shot transfer from fixed-base setups to mobile manipulation without fine-tuning or reconfiguration. Our open-source project page can be found at https://henryhcliu.github.io/unimanip.

If human experience is any guide, operating effectively in unstructured environments -- like homes and offices -- requires robots to sense the forces during physical interaction. Yet, the lack of a versatile, accessible, and easily customizable tactile sensor has led to fragmented, sensor-specific solutions in robotic manipulation -- and in many cases, to force-unaware, sensorless approaches. With eFlesh, we bridge this gap by introducing a magnetic tactile sensor that is low-cost, easy to fabricate, and highly customizable. Building an eFlesh sensor requires only four components: a hobbyist 3D printer, off-the-shelf magnets (<$5), a CAD model of the desired shape, and a magnetometer circuit board. The sensor is constructed from tiled, parameterized microstructures, which allow for tuning the sensor's geometry and its mechanical response. We provide an open-source design tool that converts convex OBJ/STL files into 3D-printable STLs for fabrication. This modular design framework enables users to create application-specific sensors, and to adjust sensitivity depending on the task. Our sensor characterization experiments demonstrate the capabilities of eFlesh: contact localization RMSE of 0.5 mm, and force prediction RMSE of 0.27 N for normal force and 0.12 N for shear force. We also present a learned slip detection model that generalizes to unseen objects with 95% accuracy, and visuotactile control policies that improve manipulation performance by 40% over vision-only baselines -- achieving 91% average success rate for four precise tasks that require sub-mm accuracy for successful completion. All design files, code and the CAD-to-eFlesh STL conversion tool are open-sourced and available on https://e-flesh.com.

Large-scale, diverse robot datasets have emerged as a promising path toward enabling dexterous manipulation policies to generalize to novel environments, but acquiring such datasets presents many challenges. While teleoperation provides high-fidelity datasets, its high cost limits its scalability. Instead, what if people could use their own hands, just as they do in everyday life, to collect data? In DexWild, a diverse team of data collectors uses their hands to collect hours of interactions across a multitude of environments and objects. To record this data, we create DexWild-System, a low-cost, mobile, and easy-to-use device. The DexWild learning framework co-trains on both human and robot demonstrations, leading to improved performance compared to training on each dataset individually. This combination results in robust robot policies capable of generalizing to novel environments, tasks, and embodiments with minimal additional robot-specific data. Experimental results demonstrate that DexWild significantly improves performance, achieving a 68.5% success rate in unseen environments-nearly four times higher than policies trained with robot data only-and offering 5.8x better cross-embodiment generalization. Video results, codebases, and instructions at https://dexwild.github.io

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in image generation tasks, including image editing and video creation, representing a good understanding of the physical world. On the other line, diffusion models have also shown promise in robotic control tasks by denoising actions, known as diffusion policy. Although the diffusion generative model and diffusion policy exhibit distinct capabilities--image prediction and robotic action, respectively--they technically follow a similar denoising process. In robotic tasks, the ability to predict future images and generate actions is highly correlated since they share the same underlying dynamics of the physical world. Building on this insight, we introduce PAD, a novel visual policy learning framework that unifies image Prediction and robot Action within a joint Denoising process. Specifically, PAD utilizes Diffusion Transformers (DiT) to seamlessly integrate images and robot states, enabling the simultaneous prediction of future images and robot actions. Additionally, PAD supports co-training on both robotic demonstrations and large-scale video datasets and can be easily extended to other robotic modalities, such as depth images. PAD outperforms previous methods, achieving a significant 26.3% relative improvement on the full Metaworld benchmark, by utilizing a single text-conditioned visual policy within a data-efficient imitation learning setting. Furthermore, PAD demonstrates superior generalization to unseen tasks in real-world robot manipulation settings with 28.0% success rate increase compared to the strongest baseline. Project page at https://sites.google.com/view/pad-paper

Vision-language models (VLMs) have been widely adopted in robotics to enable autonomous planning. However, grounding VLMs, originally trained on internet data, to diverse real-world robots remains a challenge. This paper presents ExpTeach, a framework that grounds VLMs to physical robots by building a self-generated memory of real-world experiences. In ExpTeach, the VLM autonomously plans actions, verifies outcomes, reflects on failures, and adapts robot behaviors in a closed loop. The self-generated experiences during this process are then summarized into a long-term memory, enabling retrieval of learned knowledge to guide future tasks via retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Additionally, ExpTeach enhances the spatial understanding of VLMs with an on-demand image annotation module. In experiments, we show that reflection improves success rates from 36% to 84% on four challenging robotic tasks and observe the emergence of intelligent object interactions, including creative tool use. Across extensive tests on 12 real-world scenarios (including eight unseen ones), we find that grounding with long-term memory boosts single-trial success rates from 22% to 80%, demonstrating the effectiveness and generalizability of ExpTeach.

We study the task of language-conditioned pick and place in clutter, where a robot should grasp a target object in open clutter and move it to a specified place. Some approaches learn end-to-end policies with features from vision foundation models, requiring large datasets. Others combine foundation models in a zero-shot setting, suffering from cascading errors. In addition, they primarily leverage vision and language foundation models, focusing less on action priors. In this paper, we aim to develop an effective policy by integrating foundation priors from vision, language, and action. We propose A^2, an action prior alignment method that aligns unconditioned action priors with 3D vision-language priors by learning one attention layer. The alignment formulation enables our policy to train with less data and preserve zero-shot generalization capabilities. We show that a shared policy for both pick and place actions enhances the performance for each task, and introduce a policy adaptation scheme to accommodate the multi-modal nature of actions. Extensive experiments in simulation and the real-world show that our policy achieves higher task success rates with fewer steps for both pick and place tasks in clutter, effectively generalizing to unseen objects and language instructions. Videos and codes are available at https://xukechun.github.io/papers/A2.

Robotic grasping is one of the most fundamental tasks in robotic manipulation, and grasp detection/generation has long been the subject of extensive research. Recently, language-driven grasp generation has emerged as a promising direction due to its practical interaction capabilities. However, most existing approaches either lack sufficient reasoning and generalization capabilities or depend on complex modular pipelines. Moreover, current grasp foundation models tend to overemphasize dialog and object semantics, resulting in inferior performance and restriction to single-object grasping. To maintain strong reasoning ability and generalization in cluttered environments, we propose VCoT-Grasp, an end-to-end grasp foundation model that incorporates visual chain-of-thought reasoning to enhance visual understanding for grasp generation. VCoT-Grasp adopts a multi-turn processing paradigm that dynamically focuses on visual inputs while providing interpretable reasoning traces. For training, we refine and introduce a large-scale dataset, VCoT-GraspSet, comprising 167K synthetic images with over 1.36M grasps, as well as 400+ real-world images with more than 1.2K grasps, annotated with intermediate bounding boxes. Extensive experiments on both VCoT-GraspSet and real robot demonstrate that our method significantly improves grasp success rates and generalizes effectively to unseen objects, backgrounds, and distractors. More details can be found at https://zhanghr2001.github.io/VCoT-Grasp.github.io.

Human hands possess the dexterity to interact with diverse objects such as grasping specific parts of the objects and/or approaching them from desired directions. More importantly, humans can grasp objects of any shape without object-specific skills. Recent works synthesize grasping motions following single objectives such as a desired approach heading direction or a grasping area. Moreover, they usually rely on expensive 3D hand-object data during training and inference, which limits their capability to synthesize grasping motions for unseen objects at scale. In this paper, we unify the generation of hand-object grasping motions across multiple motion objectives, diverse object shapes and dexterous hand morphologies in a policy learning framework GraspXL. The objectives are composed of the graspable area, heading direction during approach, wrist rotation, and hand position. Without requiring any 3D hand-object interaction data, our policy trained with 58 objects can robustly synthesize diverse grasping motions for more than 500k unseen objects with a success rate of 82.2%. At the same time, the policy adheres to objectives, which enables the generation of diverse grasps per object. Moreover, we show that our framework can be deployed to different dexterous hands and work with reconstructed or generated objects. We quantitatively and qualitatively evaluate our method to show the efficacy of our approach. Our model, code, and the large-scale generated motions are available at https://eth-ait.github.io/graspxl/.

Large language models (LLMs) have been shown to exhibit a wide range of capabilities, such as writing robot code from language commands -- enabling non-experts to direct robot behaviors, modify them based on feedback, or compose them to perform new tasks. However, these capabilities (driven by in-context learning) are limited to short-term interactions, where users' feedback remains relevant for only as long as it fits within the context size of the LLM, and can be forgotten over longer interactions. In this work, we investigate fine-tuning the robot code-writing LLMs, to remember their in-context interactions and improve their teachability i.e., how efficiently they adapt to human inputs (measured by average number of corrections before the user considers the task successful). Our key observation is that when human-robot interactions are formulated as a partially observable Markov decision process (in which human language inputs are observations, and robot code outputs are actions), then training an LLM to complete previous interactions can be viewed as training a transition dynamics model -- that can be combined with classic robotics techniques such as model predictive control (MPC) to discover shorter paths to success. This gives rise to Language Model Predictive Control (LMPC), a framework that fine-tunes PaLM 2 to improve its teachability on 78 tasks across 5 robot embodiments -- improving non-expert teaching success rates of unseen tasks by 26.9% while reducing the average number of human corrections from 2.4 to 1.9. Experiments show that LMPC also produces strong meta-learners, improving the success rate of in-context learning new tasks on unseen robot embodiments and APIs by 31.5%. See videos, code, and demos at: https://robot-teaching.github.io/.

Achieving human-like dexterous manipulation remains a major challenge for general-purpose robots. While Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models show potential in learning skills from demonstrations, their scalability is limited by scarce high-quality training data. Existing data collection methods face inherent constraints: manual teleoperation overloads human operators, while automated planning often produces unnatural motions. We propose a Shared Autonomy framework that divides control between macro and micro motions. A human operator guides the robot's arm pose through intuitive VR teleoperation, while an autonomous DexGrasp-VLA policy handles fine-grained hand control using real-time tactile and visual feedback. This division significantly reduces cognitive load and enables efficient collection of high-quality coordinated arm-hand demonstrations. Using this data, we train an end-to-end VLA policy enhanced with our novel Arm-Hand Feature Enhancement module, which captures both distinct and shared representations of macro and micro movements for more natural coordination. Our Corrective Teleoperation system enables continuous policy improvement through human-in-the-loop failure recovery. Experiments demonstrate that our framework generates high-quality data with minimal manpower and achieves a 90% success rate across diverse objects, including unseen instances. Comprehensive evaluations validate the system's effectiveness in developing dexterous manipulation capabilities.

Hair care is an essential daily activity, yet it remains inaccessible to individuals with limited mobility and challenging for autonomous robot systems due to the fine-grained physical structure and complex dynamics of hair. In this work, we present DYMO-Hair, a model-based robot hair care system. We introduce a novel dynamics learning paradigm that is suited for volumetric quantities such as hair, relying on an action-conditioned latent state editing mechanism, coupled with a compact 3D latent space of diverse hairstyles to improve generalizability. This latent space is pre-trained at scale using a novel hair physics simulator, enabling generalization across previously unseen hairstyles. Using the dynamics model with a Model Predictive Path Integral (MPPI) planner, DYMO-Hair is able to perform visual goal-conditioned hair styling. Experiments in simulation demonstrate that DYMO-Hair's dynamics model outperforms baselines on capturing local deformation for diverse, unseen hairstyles. DYMO-Hair further outperforms baselines in closed-loop hair styling tasks on unseen hairstyles, with an average of 22% lower final geometric error and 42% higher success rate than the state-of-the-art system. Real-world experiments exhibit zero-shot transferability of our system to wigs, achieving consistent success on challenging unseen hairstyles where the state-of-the-art system fails. Together, these results introduce a foundation for model-based robot hair care, advancing toward more generalizable, flexible, and accessible robot hair styling in unconstrained physical environments. More details are available on our project page: https://chengyzhao.github.io/DYMOHair-web/.

Natural Language-conditioned reinforcement learning (RL) enables the agents to follow human instructions. Previous approaches generally implemented language-conditioned RL by providing human instructions in natural language (NL) and training a following policy. In this outside-in approach, the policy needs to comprehend the NL and manage the task simultaneously. However, the unbounded NL examples often bring much extra complexity for solving concrete RL tasks, which can distract policy learning from completing the task. To ease the learning burden of the policy, we investigate an inside-out scheme for natural language-conditioned RL by developing a task language (TL) that is task-related and unique. The TL is used in RL to achieve highly efficient and effective policy training. Besides, a translator is trained to translate NL into TL. We implement this scheme as TALAR (TAsk Language with predicAte Representation) that learns multiple predicates to model object relationships as the TL. Experiments indicate that TALAR not only better comprehends NL instructions but also leads to a better instruction-following policy that improves 13.4% success rate and adapts to unseen expressions of NL instruction. The TL can also be an effective task abstraction, naturally compatible with hierarchical RL.

We present a method for controlling a simulated humanoid to grasp an object and move it to follow an object trajectory. Due to the challenges in controlling a humanoid with dexterous hands, prior methods often use a disembodied hand and only consider vertical lifts or short trajectories. This limited scope hampers their applicability for object manipulation required for animation and simulation. To close this gap, we learn a controller that can pick up a large number (>1200) of objects and carry them to follow randomly generated trajectories. Our key insight is to leverage a humanoid motion representation that provides human-like motor skills and significantly speeds up training. Using only simplistic reward, state, and object representations, our method shows favorable scalability on diverse object and trajectories. For training, we do not need dataset of paired full-body motion and object trajectories. At test time, we only require the object mesh and desired trajectories for grasping and transporting. To demonstrate the capabilities of our method, we show state-of-the-art success rates in following object trajectories and generalizing to unseen objects. Code and models will be released.

A long-standing goal in robotics is a generalist policy that can be deployed zero-shot on new robot embodiments without per-embodiment adaptation. Despite large-scale multi-embodiment pre-training, existing Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) remain tightly coupled to their training embodiments and typically require costly fine-tuning. We introduce Language-Action Pre-training (LAP), a simple recipe that represents low-level robot actions directly in natural language, aligning action supervision with the pre-trained vision-language model's input-output distribution. LAP requires no learned tokenizer, no costly annotation, and no embodiment-specific architectural design. Based on LAP, we present LAP-3B, which to the best of our knowledge is the first VLA to achieve substantial zero-shot transfer to previously unseen robot embodiments without any embodiment-specific fine-tuning. Across multiple novel robots and manipulation tasks, LAP-3B attains over 50% average zero-shot success, delivering roughly a 2x improvement over the strongest prior VLAs. We further show that LAP enables efficient adaptation and favorable scaling, while unifying action prediction and VQA in a shared language-action format that yields additional gains through co-training.

Despite the recent advancements of vision-language-action (VLA) models on a variety of robotics tasks, they suffer from critical issues such as poor generalizability to unseen tasks, due to their reliance on behavior cloning exclusively from successful rollouts. Furthermore, they are typically fine-tuned to replicate demonstrations collected by experts under different settings, thus introducing distribution bias and limiting their adaptability to diverse manipulation objectives, such as efficiency, safety, and task completion. To bridge this gap, we introduce GRAPE: Generalizing Robot Policy via Preference Alignment. Specifically, GRAPE aligns VLAs on a trajectory level and implicitly models reward from both successful and failure trials to boost generalizability to diverse tasks. Moreover, GRAPE breaks down complex manipulation tasks to independent stages and automatically guides preference modeling through customized spatiotemporal constraints with keypoints proposed by a large vision-language model. Notably, these constraints are flexible and can be customized to align the model with varying objectives, such as safety, efficiency, or task success. We evaluate GRAPE across a diverse array of tasks in both real-world and simulated environments. Experimental results demonstrate that GRAPE enhances the performance of state-of-the-art VLA models, increasing success rates on in-domain and unseen manipulation tasks by 51.79% and 60.36%, respectively. Additionally, GRAPE can be aligned with various objectives, such as safety and efficiency, reducing collision rates by 44.31% and rollout step-length by 11.15%, respectively. All code, models, and data are available at https://grape-vla.github.io/

We introduce CyberDemo, a novel approach to robotic imitation learning that leverages simulated human demonstrations for real-world tasks. By incorporating extensive data augmentation in a simulated environment, CyberDemo outperforms traditional in-domain real-world demonstrations when transferred to the real world, handling diverse physical and visual conditions. Regardless of its affordability and convenience in data collection, CyberDemo outperforms baseline methods in terms of success rates across various tasks and exhibits generalizability with previously unseen objects. For example, it can rotate novel tetra-valve and penta-valve, despite human demonstrations only involving tri-valves. Our research demonstrates the significant potential of simulated human demonstrations for real-world dexterous manipulation tasks. More details can be found at https://cyber-demo.github.io

Many essential manipulation tasks - such as food preparation, surgery, and craftsmanship - remain intractable for autonomous robots. These tasks are characterized not only by contact-rich, force-sensitive dynamics, but also by their "implicit" success criteria: unlike pick-and-place, task quality in these domains is continuous and subjective (e.g. how well a potato is peeled), making quantitative evaluation and reward engineering difficult. We present a learning framework for such tasks, using peeling with a knife as a representative example. Our approach follows a two-stage pipeline: first, we learn a robust initial policy via force-aware data collection and imitation learning, enabling generalization across object variations; second, we refine the policy through preference-based finetuning using a learned reward model that combines quantitative task metrics with qualitative human feedback, aligning policy behavior with human notions of task quality. Using only 50-200 peeling trajectories, our system achieves over 90% average success rates on challenging produce including cucumbers, apples, and potatoes, with performance improving by up to 40% through preference-based finetuning. Remarkably, policies trained on a single produce category exhibit strong zero-shot generalization to unseen in-category instances and to out-of-distribution produce from different categories while maintaining over 90% success rates.

We address natural language pick-and-place in unseen, unpredictable indoor environments with AnywhereVLA, a modular framework for mobile manipulation. A user text prompt serves as an entry point and is parsed into a structured task graph that conditions classical SLAM with LiDAR and cameras, metric semantic mapping, and a task-aware frontier exploration policy. An approach planner then selects visibility and reachability aware pre grasp base poses. For interaction, a compact SmolVLA manipulation head is fine tuned on platform pick and place trajectories for the SO-101 by TheRobotStudio, grounding local visual context and sub-goals into grasp and place proposals. The full system runs fully onboard on consumer-level hardware, with Jetson Orin NX for perception and VLA and an Intel NUC for SLAM, exploration, and control, sustaining real-time operation. We evaluated AnywhereVLA in a multi-room lab under static scenes and normal human motion. In this setting, the system achieves a 46% overall task success rate while maintaining throughput on embedded compute. By combining a classical stack with a fine-tuned VLA manipulation, the system inherits the reliability of geometry-based navigation with the agility and task generalization of language-conditioned manipulation.

Goal-oriented language-guided navigation requires robust exploration capabilities for agents to navigate to specified goals in unknown environments without step-by-step instructions. Existing methods tend to exclusively utilize shortest-path trajectories, lacking effective exploration priors for training navigation agents. To address the above challenges, we present SID, a goal-oriented language-guided navigation learning approach with Self-Improving Demonstrations. Specifically, SID learns an initial agent on the shortest-path data sampled from environments and then leverages this agent to generate novel exploration trajectories. The novel rollouts provide demonstrations with stronger exploration strategies to train a better agent, which in turn produces higher-quality agent demonstrations for the next round of training. We show that this iterative self-improving pipeline readily scales to new environments, and the resulting demonstrations can be transferred across a variety of language-guided navigation tasks, elevating the performance ceiling in diverse goal-oriented navigation tasks. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SID significantly boosts the exploration capabilities and generalization of navigation agents. The resulting agent achieves new state-of-the-art performance on goal-oriented language-guided navigation tasks, including REVERIE, SOON, notably achieving a 50.9% success rate on the unseen validation splits of SOON, surpassing the prior leading approaches by a margin of 13.9%.

A central challenge in reinforcement learning (RL) is its dependence on extensive real-world interaction data to learn task-specific policies. While recent work demonstrates that large language models (LLMs) can mitigate this limitation by generating synthetic experience (noted as imaginary rollouts) for mastering novel tasks, progress in this emerging field is hindered due to the lack of a standard benchmark. To bridge this gap, we introduce ImagineBench, the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating offline RL algorithms that leverage both real rollouts and LLM-imaginary rollouts. The key features of ImagineBench include: (1) datasets comprising environment-collected and LLM-imaginary rollouts; (2) diverse domains of environments covering locomotion, robotic manipulation, and navigation tasks; and (3) natural language task instructions with varying complexity levels to facilitate language-conditioned policy learning. Through systematic evaluation of state-of-the-art offline RL algorithms, we observe that simply applying existing offline RL algorithms leads to suboptimal performance on unseen tasks, achieving 35.44% success rate in hard tasks in contrast to 64.37% of method training on real rollouts for hard tasks. This result highlights the need for algorithm advancements to better leverage LLM-imaginary rollouts. Additionally, we identify key opportunities for future research: including better utilization of imaginary rollouts, fast online adaptation and continual learning, and extension to multi-modal tasks. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/LAMDA-RL/ImagineBench.

Current approaches for humanoid whole-body manipulation, primarily relying on teleoperation or visual sim-to-real reinforcement learning, are hindered by hardware logistics and complex reward engineering. Consequently, demonstrated autonomous skills remain limited and are typically restricted to controlled environments. In this paper, we present the Humanoid Manipulation Interface (HuMI), a portable and efficient framework for learning diverse whole-body manipulation tasks across various environments. HuMI enables robot-free data collection by capturing rich whole-body motion using portable hardware. This data drives a hierarchical learning pipeline that translates human motions into dexterous and feasible humanoid skills. Extensive experiments across five whole-body tasks--including kneeling, squatting, tossing, walking, and bimanual manipulation--demonstrate that HuMI achieves a 3x increase in data collection efficiency compared to teleoperation and attains a 70% success rate in unseen environments.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models demonstrate significant potential for developing generalized policies in real-world robotic control. This progress inspires researchers to explore fine-tuning these models with Reinforcement Learning (RL). However, fine-tuning VLA models with RL still faces challenges related to sample efficiency, compatibility with action chunking, and training stability. To address these challenges, we explore the fine-tuning of VLA models through offline reinforcement learning incorporating action chunking. In this work, we propose Chunked RL, a novel reinforcement learning framework specifically designed for VLA models. Within this framework, we extend temporal difference (TD) learning to incorporate action chunking, a prominent characteristic of VLA models. Building upon this framework, we propose CO-RFT, an algorithm aimed at fine-tuning VLA models using a limited set of demonstrations (30 to 60 samples). Specifically, we first conduct imitation learning (IL) with full parameter fine-tuning to initialize both the backbone and the policy. Subsequently, we implement offline RL with action chunking to optimize the pretrained policy. Our empirical results in real-world environments demonstrate that CO-RFT outperforms previous supervised methods, achieving a 57% improvement in success rate and a 22.3% reduction in cycle time. Moreover, our method exhibits robust positional generalization capabilities, attaining a success rate of 44.3% in previously unseen positions.

The development of autonomous agents for complex, long-horizon tasks is a central goal in AI. However, dominant training paradigms face a critical limitation: reinforcement learning (RL) methods that optimize solely for final task success often reinforce flawed or inefficient reasoning paths, a problem we term inefficient exploration. This leads to agents that are brittle and fail to generalize, as they learn to find solutions without learning how to reason coherently. To address this, we introduce RLVMR, a novel framework that integrates dense, process-level supervision into end-to-end RL by rewarding verifiable, meta-reasoning behaviors. RLVMR equips an agent to explicitly tag its cognitive steps, such as planning, exploration, and reflection, and provides programmatic, rule-based rewards for actions that contribute to effective problem-solving. These process-centric rewards are combined with the final outcome signal and optimized using a critic-free policy gradient method. On the challenging ALFWorld and ScienceWorld benchmarks, RLVMR achieves new state-of-the-art results, with our 7B model reaching an 83.6% success rate on the most difficult unseen task split. Our analysis confirms these gains stem from improved reasoning quality, including significant reductions in redundant actions and enhanced error recovery, leading to more robust, efficient, and interpretable agents.

Significant progress has been made in vision-language models. However, language-conditioned robotic manipulation for contact-rich tasks remains underexplored, particularly in terms of tactile sensing. To address this gap, we introduce the Tactile-Language-Action (TLA) model, which effectively processes sequential tactile feedback via cross-modal language grounding to enable robust policy generation in contact-intensive scenarios. In addition, we construct a comprehensive dataset that contains 24k pairs of tactile action instruction data, customized for fingertip peg-in-hole assembly, providing essential resources for TLA training and evaluation. Our results show that TLA significantly outperforms traditional imitation learning methods (e.g., diffusion policy) in terms of effective action generation and action accuracy, while demonstrating strong generalization capabilities by achieving over 85\% success rate on previously unseen assembly clearances and peg shapes. We publicly release all data and code in the hope of advancing research in language-conditioned tactile manipulation skill learning. Project website: https://sites.google.com/view/tactile-language-action/

The vulnerability of deep neural networks to adversarial patches has motivated numerous defense strategies for boosting model robustness. However, the prevailing defenses depend on single observation or pre-established adversary information to counter adversarial patches, often failing to be confronted with unseen or adaptive adversarial attacks and easily exhibiting unsatisfying performance in dynamic 3D environments. Inspired by active human perception and recurrent feedback mechanisms, we develop Embodied Active Defense (EAD), a proactive defensive strategy that actively contextualizes environmental information to address misaligned adversarial patches in 3D real-world settings. To achieve this, EAD develops two central recurrent sub-modules, i.e., a perception module and a policy module, to implement two critical functions of active vision. These models recurrently process a series of beliefs and observations, facilitating progressive refinement of their comprehension of the target object and enabling the development of strategic actions to counter adversarial patches in 3D environments. To optimize learning efficiency, we incorporate a differentiable approximation of environmental dynamics and deploy patches that are agnostic to the adversary strategies. Extensive experiments demonstrate that EAD substantially enhances robustness against a variety of patches within just a few steps through its action policy in safety-critical tasks (e.g., face recognition and object detection), without compromising standard accuracy. Furthermore, due to the attack-agnostic characteristic, EAD facilitates excellent generalization to unseen attacks, diminishing the averaged attack success rate by 95 percent across a range of unseen adversarial attacks.

Mobile agents that can leverage help from humans can potentially accomplish more complex tasks than they could entirely on their own. We develop "Help, Anna!" (HANNA), an interactive photo-realistic simulator in which an agent fulfills object-finding tasks by requesting and interpreting natural language-and-vision assistance. An agent solving tasks in a HANNA environment can leverage simulated human assistants, called ANNA (Automatic Natural Navigation Assistants), which, upon request, provide natural language and visual instructions to direct the agent towards the goals. To address the HANNA problem, we develop a memory-augmented neural agent that hierarchically models multiple levels of decision-making, and an imitation learning algorithm that teaches the agent to avoid repeating past mistakes while simultaneously predicting its own chances of making future progress. Empirically, our approach is able to ask for help more effectively than competitive baselines and, thus, attains higher task success rate on both previously seen and previously unseen environments. We publicly release code and data at https://github.com/khanhptnk/hanna . A video demo is available at https://youtu.be/18P94aaaLKg .

Reinforcement learning has empowered large language models to act as intelligent agents, yet training them for long-horizon tasks remains challenging due to the scarcity of high-quality trajectories, especially under limited resources. Existing methods typically scale up rollout sizes and indiscriminately allocate computational resources among intermediate steps. Such attempts inherently waste substantial computation budget on trivial steps while failing to guarantee sample quality. To address this, we propose Spark (Strategic Policy-Aware exploRation via Key-state dynamic branching), a novel framework that selectively branches at critical decision states for resource-efficient exploration. Our key insight is to activate adaptive branching exploration at critical decision points to probe promising trajectories, thereby achieving precise resource allocation that prioritizes sampling quality over blind coverage. This design leverages the agent's intrinsic decision-making signals to reduce dependence on human priors, enabling the agent to autonomously expand exploration and achieve stronger generalization. Experiments across diverse tasks (e.g., embodied planning), demonstrate that Spark achieves superior success rates with significantly fewer training samples, exhibiting robust generalization even in unseen scenarios.

Data scaling has revolutionized fields like natural language processing and computer vision, providing models with remarkable generalization capabilities. In this paper, we investigate whether similar data scaling laws exist in robotics, particularly in robotic manipulation, and whether appropriate data scaling can yield single-task robot policies that can be deployed zero-shot for any object within the same category in any environment. To this end, we conduct a comprehensive empirical study on data scaling in imitation learning. By collecting data across numerous environments and objects, we study how a policy's generalization performance changes with the number of training environments, objects, and demonstrations. Throughout our research, we collect over 40,000 demonstrations and execute more than 15,000 real-world robot rollouts under a rigorous evaluation protocol. Our findings reveal several intriguing results: the generalization performance of the policy follows a roughly power-law relationship with the number of environments and objects. The diversity of environments and objects is far more important than the absolute number of demonstrations; once the number of demonstrations per environment or object reaches a certain threshold, additional demonstrations have minimal effect. Based on these insights, we propose an efficient data collection strategy. With four data collectors working for one afternoon, we collect sufficient data to enable the policies for two tasks to achieve approximately 90% success rates in novel environments with unseen objects.

Eye-in-hand cameras have shown promise in enabling greater sample efficiency and generalization in vision-based robotic manipulation. However, for robotic imitation, it is still expensive to have a human teleoperator collect large amounts of expert demonstrations with a real robot. Videos of humans performing tasks, on the other hand, are much cheaper to collect since they eliminate the need for expertise in robotic teleoperation and can be quickly captured in a wide range of scenarios. Therefore, human video demonstrations are a promising data source for learning generalizable robotic manipulation policies at scale. In this work, we augment narrow robotic imitation datasets with broad unlabeled human video demonstrations to greatly enhance the generalization of eye-in-hand visuomotor policies. Although a clear visual domain gap exists between human and robot data, our framework does not need to employ any explicit domain adaptation method, as we leverage the partial observability of eye-in-hand cameras as well as a simple fixed image masking scheme. On a suite of eight real-world tasks involving both 3-DoF and 6-DoF robot arm control, our method improves the success rates of eye-in-hand manipulation policies by 58% (absolute) on average, enabling robots to generalize to both new environment configurations and new tasks that are unseen in the robot demonstration data. See video results at https://giving-robots-a-hand.github.io/ .

Large and diverse datasets are needed for training generalist robot policies that have potential to control a variety of robot embodiments -- robot arm and gripper combinations -- across diverse tasks and environments. As re-collecting demonstrations and retraining for each new hardware platform are prohibitively costly, we show that existing robot data can be augmented for transfer and generalization. The Open X-Embodiment (OXE) dataset, which aggregates demonstrations from over 60 robot datasets, has been widely used as the foundation for training generalist policies. However, it is highly imbalanced: the top four robot types account for over 85\% of its real data, which risks overfitting to robot-scene combinations. We present AugE-Toolkit, a scalable robot augmentation pipeline, and OXE-AugE, a high-quality open-source dataset that augments OXE with 9 different robot embodiments. OXE-AugE provides over 4.4 million trajectories, more than triple the size of the original OXE. We conduct a systematic study of how scaling robot augmentation impacts cross-embodiment learning. Results suggest that augmenting datasets with diverse arms and grippers improves policy performance not only on the augmented robots, but also on unseen robots and even the original robots under distribution shifts. In physical experiments, we demonstrate that state-of-the-art generalist policies such as OpenVLA and π_0 benefit from fine-tuning on OXE-AugE, improving success rates by 24-45% on previously unseen robot-gripper combinations across four real-world manipulation tasks. Project website: https://OXE-AugE.github.io/.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems enhance Large Language Models (LLMs) by retrieving relevant documents from external corpora before generating responses. This approach significantly expands LLM capabilities by leveraging vast, up-to-date external knowledge. However, this reliance on external knowledge makes RAG systems vulnerable to corpus poisoning attacks that manipulate generated outputs via poisoned document injection. Existing poisoning attack strategies typically treat the retrieval and generation stages as disjointed, limiting their effectiveness. We propose Joint-GCG, the first framework to unify gradient-based attacks across both retriever and generator models through three innovations: (1) Cross-Vocabulary Projection for aligning embedding spaces, (2) Gradient Tokenization Alignment for synchronizing token-level gradient signals, and (3) Adaptive Weighted Fusion for dynamically balancing attacking objectives. Evaluations demonstrate that Joint-GCG achieves at most 25% and an average of 5% higher attack success rate than previous methods across multiple retrievers and generators. While optimized under a white-box assumption, the generated poisons show unprecedented transferability to unseen models. Joint-GCG's innovative unification of gradient-based attacks across retrieval and generation stages fundamentally reshapes our understanding of vulnerabilities within RAG systems. Our code is available at https://github.com/NicerWang/Joint-GCG.

Affordance, defined as the potential actions that an object offers, is crucial for robotic manipulation tasks. A deep understanding of affordance can lead to more intelligent AI systems. For example, such knowledge directs an agent to grasp a knife by the handle for cutting and by the blade when passing it to someone. In this paper, we present a streamlined affordance learning system that encompasses data collection, effective model training, and robot deployment. First, we collect training data from egocentric videos in an automatic manner. Different from previous methods that focus only on the object graspable affordance and represent it as coarse heatmaps, we cover both graspable (e.g., object handles) and functional affordances (e.g., knife blades, hammer heads) and extract data with precise segmentation masks. We then propose an effective model, termed Geometry-guided Affordance Transformer (GKT), to train on the collected data. GKT integrates an innovative Depth Feature Injector (DFI) to incorporate 3D shape and geometric priors, enhancing the model's understanding of affordances. To enable affordance-oriented manipulation, we further introduce Aff-Grasp, a framework that combines GKT with a grasp generation model. For comprehensive evaluation, we create an affordance evaluation dataset with pixel-wise annotations, and design real-world tasks for robot experiments. The results show that GKT surpasses the state-of-the-art by 15.9% in mIoU, and Aff-Grasp achieves high success rates of 95.5% in affordance prediction and 77.1% in successful grasping among 179 trials, including evaluations with seen, unseen objects, and cluttered scenes.

Interaction and navigation defined by natural language instructions in dynamic environments pose significant challenges for neural agents. This paper focuses on addressing two challenges: handling long sequence of subtasks, and understanding complex human instructions. We propose Episodic Transformer (E.T.), a multimodal transformer that encodes language inputs and the full episode history of visual observations and actions. To improve training, we leverage synthetic instructions as an intermediate representation that decouples understanding the visual appearance of an environment from the variations of natural language instructions. We demonstrate that encoding the history with a transformer is critical to solve compositional tasks, and that pretraining and joint training with synthetic instructions further improve the performance. Our approach sets a new state of the art on the challenging ALFRED benchmark, achieving 38.4% and 8.5% task success rates on seen and unseen test splits.

This paper proposes a novel learning-based control policy with strong generalizability to new environments that enables a mobile robot to navigate autonomously through spaces filled with both static obstacles and dense crowds of pedestrians. The policy uses a unique combination of input data to generate the desired steering angle and forward velocity: a short history of lidar data, kinematic data about nearby pedestrians, and a sub-goal point. The policy is trained in a reinforcement learning setting using a reward function that contains a novel term based on velocity obstacles to guide the robot to actively avoid pedestrians and move towards the goal. Through a series of 3D simulated experiments with up to 55 pedestrians, this control policy is able to achieve a better balance between collision avoidance and speed (i.e., higher success rate and faster average speed) than state-of-the-art model-based and learning-based policies, and it also generalizes better to different crowd sizes and unseen environments. An extensive series of hardware experiments demonstrate the ability of this policy to directly work in different real-world environments with different crowd sizes with zero retraining. Furthermore, a series of simulated and hardware experiments show that the control policy also works in highly constrained static environments on a different robot platform without any additional training. Lastly, several important lessons that can be applied to other robot learning systems are summarized. Multimedia demonstrations are available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KneELRT8GzU&list=PLouWbAcP4zIvPgaARrV223lf2eiSR-eSS.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have shown strong performance in robotic manipulation, but often struggle in long-horizon or out-of-distribution scenarios due to the lack of explicit mechanisms for multimodal reasoning and anticipating how the world will evolve under action. Recent works introduce textual chain-of-thought or visual subgoal prediction within VLA models to reason, but still fail to offer a unified human-like reasoning framework for joint textual reasoning, visual foresight, and action prediction. To this end, we propose HALO, a unified VLA model that enables embodied multimodal chain-of-thought (EM-CoT) reasoning through a sequential process of textual task reasoning, visual subgoal prediction for fine-grained guidance, and EM-CoT-augmented action prediction. We instantiate HALO with a Mixture-of-Transformers (MoT) architecture that decouples semantic reasoning, visual foresight, and action prediction into specialized experts while allowing seamless cross-expert collaboration. To enable HALO learning at scale, we introduce an automated pipeline to synthesize EM-CoT training data along with a carefully crafted training recipe. Extensive experiments demonstrate that: (1) HALO achieves superior performance in both simulated and real-world environments, surpassing baseline policy pi_0 by 34.1% on RoboTwin benchmark; (2) all proposed components of the training recipe and EM-CoT design help improve task success rate; and (3) HALO exhibits strong generalization capabilities under aggressive unseen environmental randomization with our proposed EM-CoT reasoning.

We introduce UniGraspTransformer, a universal Transformer-based network for dexterous robotic grasping that simplifies training while enhancing scalability and performance. Unlike prior methods such as UniDexGrasp++, which require complex, multi-step training pipelines, UniGraspTransformer follows a streamlined process: first, dedicated policy networks are trained for individual objects using reinforcement learning to generate successful grasp trajectories; then, these trajectories are distilled into a single, universal network. Our approach enables UniGraspTransformer to scale effectively, incorporating up to 12 self-attention blocks for handling thousands of objects with diverse poses. Additionally, it generalizes well to both idealized and real-world inputs, evaluated in state-based and vision-based settings. Notably, UniGraspTransformer generates a broader range of grasping poses for objects in various shapes and orientations, resulting in more diverse grasp strategies. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art, UniDexGrasp++, across various object categories, achieving success rate gains of 3.5%, 7.7%, and 10.1% on seen objects, unseen objects within seen categories, and completely unseen objects, respectively, in the vision-based setting. Project page: https://dexhand.github.io/UniGraspTransformer.

Determining the binding pose of a ligand to a protein, known as molecular docking, is a fundamental task in drug discovery. Generative approaches promise faster, improved, and more diverse pose sampling than physics-based methods, but are often hindered by chemically implausible outputs, poor generalisability, and high computational cost. To address these challenges, we introduce a novel fragmentation scheme, leveraging inductive biases from structural chemistry, to decompose ligands into rigid-body fragments. Building on this decomposition, we present SigmaDock, an SE(3) Riemannian diffusion model that generates poses by learning to reassemble these rigid bodies within the binding pocket. By operating at the level of fragments in SE(3), SigmaDock exploits well-established geometric priors while avoiding overly complex diffusion processes and unstable training dynamics. Experimentally, we show SigmaDock achieves state-of-the-art performance, reaching Top-1 success rates (RMSD<2 & PB-valid) above 79.9% on the PoseBusters set, compared to 12.7-30.8% reported by recent deep learning approaches, whilst demonstrating consistent generalisation to unseen proteins. SigmaDock is the first deep learning approach to surpass classical physics-based docking under the PB train-test split, marking a significant leap forward in the reliability and feasibility of deep learning for molecular modelling.

Public repositories host millions of fine-tuned models, yet community usage remains disproportionately concentrated on a small number of foundation checkpoints. We investigate whether this concentration reflects efficient market selection or if superior models are systematically overlooked. Through an extensive evaluation of over 2,000 models, we show the prevalence of "hidden gems", unpopular fine-tunes that significantly outperform their popular counterparts. Notably, within the Llama-3.1-8B family, we find rarely downloaded checkpoints that improve math performance from 83.2% to 96.0% without increasing inference costs. However, discovering these models through exhaustive evaluation of every uploaded model is computationally infeasible. We therefore formulate model discovery as a Multi-Armed Bandit problem and accelerate the Sequential Halving search algorithm by using shared query sets and aggressive elimination schedules. Our method retrieves top models with as few as 50 queries per candidate, accelerating discovery by over 50x.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Machine learning models for medical image analysis often suffer from poor performance on important subsets of a population that are not identified during training or testing. For example, overall performance of a cancer detection model may be high, but the model still consistently misses a rare but aggressive cancer subtype. We refer to this problem as hidden stratification, and observe that it results from incompletely describing the meaningful variation in a dataset. While hidden stratification can substantially reduce the clinical efficacy of machine learning models, its effects remain difficult to measure. In this work, we assess the utility of several possible techniques for measuring and describing hidden stratification effects, and characterize these effects on multiple medical imaging datasets. We find evidence that hidden stratification can occur in unidentified imaging subsets with low prevalence, low label quality, subtle distinguishing features, or spurious correlates, and that it can result in relative performance differences of over 20% on clinically important subsets. Finally, we explore the clinical implications of our findings, and suggest that evaluation of hidden stratification should be a critical component of any machine learning deployment in medical imaging.

A central aspect of machine learning research is experimentation, the process of designing and running experiments, analyzing the results, and iterating towards some positive outcome (e.g., improving accuracy). Could agents driven by powerful language models perform machine learning experimentation effectively? To answer this question, we introduce MLAgentBench, a suite of 13 tasks ranging from improving model performance on CIFAR-10 to recent research problems like BabyLM. For each task, an agent can perform actions like reading/writing files, executing code, and inspecting outputs. We then construct an agent that can perform ML experimentation based on ReAct framework. We benchmark agents based on Claude v1.0, Claude v2.1, Claude v3 Opus, GPT-4, GPT-4-turbo, Gemini-Pro, and Mixtral and find that a Claude v3 Opus agent is the best in terms of success rate. It can build compelling ML models over many tasks in MLAgentBench with 37.5% average success rate. Our agents also display highly interpretable plans and actions. However, the success rates vary considerably; they span from 100% on well-established older datasets to as low as 0% on recent Kaggle challenges created potentially after the underlying LM was trained. Finally, we identify several key challenges for LM-based agents such as long-term planning and reducing hallucination. Our code is released at https://github.com/snap-stanford/MLAgentBench.

AI has achieved remarkable mastery over games such as Chess, Go, and Poker, and even Jeopardy, but the rich variety of standardized exams has remained a landmark challenge. Even in 2016, the best AI system achieved merely 59.3% on an 8th Grade science exam challenge. This paper reports unprecedented success on the Grade 8 New York Regents Science Exam, where for the first time a system scores more than 90% on the exam's non-diagram, multiple choice (NDMC) questions. In addition, our Aristo system, building upon the success of recent language models, exceeded 83% on the corresponding Grade 12 Science Exam NDMC questions. The results, on unseen test questions, are robust across different test years and different variations of this kind of test. They demonstrate that modern NLP methods can result in mastery on this task. While not a full solution to general question-answering (the questions are multiple choice, and the domain is restricted to 8th Grade science), it represents a significant milestone for the field.

Collecting high-quality training examples for language model fine-tuning is expensive, with practical budgets limiting the amount of data that can be procured. We investigate whether example difficulty affects GRPO training effectiveness by comparing selection strategies (easy, medium, hard, random) across multiple models and reasoning tasks. Training on the hardest 10\% of examples (those where the base model fails most often) yields dramatic performance gains up to 47\%, while easy examples produce minimal improvements of 3-15\%. This occurs because GRPO requires outcome variance to generate learning signals; hard examples maintain mixed success/failure outcomes throughout training while easy examples quickly converge to consistent success, eliminating learning opportunities. Moreover, models trained on hard examples show superior out-of-distribution generalization, with only hard-trained models achieving meaningful gains on the AIME2025 benchmark. Our findings provide clear guidance: when budget-constrained, prioritize collecting and annotating examples where your base model struggles, as these drive nearly all learning value in GRPO fine-tuning

Large language models (LLMs) offer a powerful opportunity to simulate the results of social science experiments. In this work, we demonstrate that finetuning LLMs directly on individual-level responses from past experiments meaningfully improves the accuracy of such simulations across diverse social science domains. We construct SocSci210 via an automatic pipeline, a dataset comprising 2.9 million responses from 400,491 participants in 210 open-source social science experiments. Through finetuning, we achieve multiple levels of generalization. In completely unseen studies, our strongest model, Socrates-Qwen-14B, produces predictions that are 26% more aligned with distributions of human responses to diverse outcome questions under varying conditions relative to its base model (Qwen2.5-14B), outperforming GPT-4o by 13%. By finetuning on a subset of conditions in a study, generalization to new unseen conditions is particularly robust, improving by 71%. Since SocSci210 contains rich demographic information, we reduce demographic parity, a measure of bias, by 10.6% through finetuning. Because social sciences routinely generate rich, topic-specific datasets, our findings indicate that finetuning on such data could enable more accurate simulations for experimental hypothesis screening. We release our data, models and finetuning code at stanfordhci.github.io/socrates.

Large language models are being widely used across industries to generate content that contributes directly to key performance metrics, such as conversion rates. Pretrained models, however, often fall short when it comes to aligning with human preferences or optimizing for business objectives. As a result, fine-tuning with good-quality labeled data is essential to guide models to generate content that achieves better results. Controlled experiments, like A/B tests, can provide such data, but they are often expensive and come with significant engineering and logistical challenges. Meanwhile, companies have access to a vast amount of historical (observational) data that remains underutilized. In this work, we study the challenges and opportunities of fine-tuning LLMs using observational data. We show that while observational outcomes can provide valuable supervision, directly fine-tuning models on such data can lead them to learn spurious correlations. We present empirical evidence of this issue using various real-world datasets and propose DeconfoundLM, a method that explicitly removes the effect of known confounders from reward signals. Using simulation experiments, we demonstrate that DeconfoundLM improves the recovery of causal relationships and mitigates failure modes found in fine-tuning methods that ignore or naively incorporate confounding variables. Our findings highlight that while observational data presents risks, with the right causal corrections, it can be a powerful source of signal for LLM alignment. Please refer to the project page for code and related resources.

Zero-shot learning (ZSL) aims at understanding unseen categories with no training examples from class-level descriptions. To improve the discriminative power of zero-shot learning, we model the visual learning process of unseen categories with inspiration from the psychology of human creativity for producing novel art. We relate ZSL to human creativity by observing that zero-shot learning is about recognizing the unseen and creativity is about creating a likable unseen. We introduce a learning signal inspired by creativity literature that explores the unseen space with hallucinated class-descriptions and encourages careful deviation of their visual feature generations from seen classes while allowing knowledge transfer from seen to unseen classes. Empirically, we show consistent improvement over the state of the art of several percents on the largest available benchmarks on the challenging task or generalized ZSL from a noisy text that we focus on, using the CUB and NABirds datasets. We also show the advantage of our approach on Attribute-based ZSL on three additional datasets (AwA2, aPY, and SUN). Code is available.

We resolve an open problem of Hanneke on the subject of universally consistent online learning with non-i.i.d. processes and unbounded losses. The notion of an optimistically universal learning rule was defined by Hanneke in an effort to study learning theory under minimal assumptions. A given learning rule is said to be optimistically universal if it achieves a low long-run average loss whenever the data generating process makes this goal achievable by some learning rule. Hanneke posed as an open problem whether, for every unbounded loss, the family of processes admitting universal learning are precisely those having a finite number of distinct values almost surely. In this paper, we completely resolve this problem, showing that this is indeed the case. As a consequence, this also offers a dramatically simpler formulation of an optimistically universal learning rule for any unbounded loss: namely, the simple memorization rule already suffices. Our proof relies on constructing random measurable partitions of the instance space and could be of independent interest for solving other open questions. We extend the results to the non-realizable setting thereby providing an optimistically universal Bayes consistent learning rule.

Accelerating scientific discovery requires the identification of which experiments would yield the best outcomes before committing resources to costly physical validation. While existing benchmarks evaluate LLMs on scientific knowledge and reasoning, their ability to predict experimental outcomes - a task where AI could significantly exceed human capabilities - remains largely underexplored. We introduce SciPredict, a benchmark comprising 405 tasks derived from recent empirical studies in 33 specialized sub-fields of physics, biology, and chemistry. SciPredict addresses two critical questions: (a) can LLMs predict the outcome of scientific experiments with sufficient accuracy? and (b) can such predictions be reliably used in the scientific research process? Evaluations reveal fundamental limitations on both fronts. Model accuracies are 14-26% and human expert performance is approx20%. Although some frontier models exceed human performance model accuracy is still far below what would enable reliable experimental guidance. Even within the limited performance, models fail to distinguish reliable predictions from unreliable ones, achieving only approx20% accuracy regardless of their confidence or whether they judge outcomes as predictable without physical experimentation. Human experts, in contrast, demonstrate strong calibration: their accuracy increases from approx5% to approx80% as they deem outcomes more predictable without conducting the experiment. SciPredict establishes a rigorous framework demonstrating that superhuman performance in experimental science requires not just better predictions, but better awareness of prediction reliability. For reproducibility all our data and code are provided at https://github.com/scaleapi/scipredict

Unlearning methods have the potential to improve the privacy and safety of large language models (LLMs) by removing sensitive or harmful information post hoc. The LLM unlearning research community has increasingly turned toward empirical benchmarks to assess the effectiveness of such methods. In this paper, we find that existing benchmarks provide an overly optimistic and potentially misleading view on the effectiveness of candidate unlearning methods. By introducing simple, benign modifications to a number of popular benchmarks, we expose instances where supposedly unlearned information remains accessible, or where the unlearning process has degraded the model's performance on retained information to a much greater extent than indicated by the original benchmark. We identify that existing benchmarks are particularly vulnerable to modifications that introduce even loose dependencies between the forget and retain information. Further, we show that ambiguity in unlearning targets in existing benchmarks can easily lead to the design of methods that overfit to the given test queries. Based on our findings, we urge the community to be cautious when interpreting benchmark results as reliable measures of progress, and we provide several recommendations to guide future LLM unlearning research.

The adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs) for code generation in data science offers substantial potential for enhancing tasks such as data manipulation, statistical analysis, and visualization. However, the effectiveness of these models in the data science domain remains underexplored. This paper presents a controlled experiment that empirically assesses the performance of four leading LLM-based AI assistants-Microsoft Copilot (GPT-4 Turbo), ChatGPT (o1-preview), Claude (3.5 Sonnet), and Perplexity Labs (Llama-3.1-70b-instruct)-on a diverse set of data science coding challenges sourced from the Stratacratch platform. Using the Goal-Question-Metric (GQM) approach, we evaluated each model's effectiveness across task types (Analytical, Algorithm, Visualization) and varying difficulty levels. Our findings reveal that all models exceeded a 50% baseline success rate, confirming their capability beyond random chance. Notably, only ChatGPT and Claude achieved success rates significantly above a 60% baseline, though none of the models reached a 70% threshold, indicating limitations in higher standards. ChatGPT demonstrated consistent performance across varying difficulty levels, while Claude's success rate fluctuated with task complexity. Hypothesis testing indicates that task type does not significantly impact success rate overall. For analytical tasks, efficiency analysis shows no significant differences in execution times, though ChatGPT tended to be slower and less predictable despite high success rates. This study provides a structured, empirical evaluation of LLMs in data science, delivering insights that support informed model selection tailored to specific task demands. Our findings establish a framework for future AI assessments, emphasizing the value of rigorous evaluation beyond basic accuracy measures.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require complex reasoning. Most benchmarks focus on final outcomes but overlook the intermediate reasoning steps - such as planning, revision, and decision making under resource constraints. We argue that measuring these internal processes is essential for understanding model behavior and improving reliability. We propose using strategic games as a natural evaluation environment: closed, rule-based systems with clear states, limited resources, and automatic feedback. We introduce a framework that evaluates LLMs along three core dimensions: planning, revision, and resource-constrained decision making. To operationalize this, we define metrics beyond win rate, including overcorrection risk rate, correction success rate, improvement slope, and over-budget ratio. In 4320 adversarial rounds across 12 leading models, ChatGPT-o3-mini achieves the top composite score, with a win rate of 74.7 percent, a correction success rate of 78.6 percent, and an improvement slope of 0.041. By contrast, Qwen-Plus, despite an overcorrection risk rate of 81.6 percent, wins only 25.6 percent of its matches - primarily due to excessive resource use. We also observe a negative correlation between overcorrection risk rate and correction success rate (Pearson r = -0.51, p = 0.093), suggesting that more frequent edits do not always improve outcomes. Our findings highlight the value of assessing not only what LLMs decide but how they arrive at those decisions

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

Although state-of-the-art LLMs can solve math problems, we find that they make errors on numerical comparisons with mixed notation: "Which is larger, 5.7 times 10^2 or 580?" This raises a fundamental question: Do LLMs even know how big these numbers are? We probe the hidden states of several smaller open-source LLMs. A single linear projection of an appropriate hidden layer encodes the log-magnitudes of both kinds of numerals, allowing us to recover the numbers with relative error of about 2.3% (on restricted synthetic text) or 19.06% (on scientific papers). Furthermore, the hidden state after reading a pair of numerals encodes their ranking, with a linear classifier achieving over 90% accuracy. Yet surprisingly, when explicitly asked to rank the same pairs of numerals, these LLMs achieve only 50-70% accuracy, with worse performance for models whose probes are less effective. Finally, we show that incorporating the classifier probe's log-loss as an auxiliary objective during finetuning brings an additional 3.22% improvement in verbalized accuracy over base models, demonstrating that improving models' internal magnitude representations can enhance their numerical reasoning capabilities.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Interest in neural machine translation has grown rapidly as its effectiveness has been demonstrated across language and data scenarios. New research regularly introduces architectural and algorithmic improvements that lead to significant gains over "vanilla" NMT implementations. However, these new techniques are rarely evaluated in the context of previously published techniques, specifically those that are widely used in state-of-theart production and shared-task systems. As a result, it is often difficult to determine whether improvements from research will carry over to systems deployed for real-world use. In this work, we recommend three specific methods that are relatively easy to implement and result in much stronger experimental systems. Beyond reporting significantly higher BLEU scores, we conduct an in-depth analysis of where improvements originate and what inherent weaknesses of basic NMT models are being addressed. We then compare the relative gains afforded by several other techniques proposed in the literature when starting with vanilla systems versus our stronger baselines, showing that experimental conclusions may change depending on the baseline chosen. This indicates that choosing a strong baseline is crucial for reporting reliable experimental results.

Pretrained multilingual models are able to perform cross-lingual transfer in a zero-shot setting, even for languages unseen during pretraining. However, prior work evaluating performance on unseen languages has largely been limited to low-level, syntactic tasks, and it remains unclear if zero-shot learning of high-level, semantic tasks is possible for unseen languages. To explore this question, we present AmericasNLI, an extension of XNLI (Conneau et al., 2018) to 10 indigenous languages of the Americas. We conduct experiments with XLM-R, testing multiple zero-shot and translation-based approaches. Additionally, we explore model adaptation via continued pretraining and provide an analysis of the dataset by considering hypothesis-only models. We find that XLM-R's zero-shot performance is poor for all 10 languages, with an average performance of 38.62%. Continued pretraining offers improvements, with an average accuracy of 44.05%. Surprisingly, training on poorly translated data by far outperforms all other methods with an accuracy of 48.72%.

We present a comprehensive evaluation of proprietary and open-weights large language models using the first astronomy-specific benchmarking dataset. This dataset comprises 4,425 multiple-choice questions curated from the Annual Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics, covering a broad range of astrophysical topics. Our analysis examines model performance across various astronomical subfields and assesses response calibration, crucial for potential deployment in research environments. Claude-3.5-Sonnet outperforms competitors by up to 4.6 percentage points, achieving 85.0% accuracy. For proprietary models, we observed a universal reduction in cost every 3-to-12 months to achieve similar score in this particular astronomy benchmark. Open-source models have rapidly improved, with LLaMA-3-70b (80.6%) and Qwen-2-72b (77.7%) now competing with some of the best proprietary models. We identify performance variations across topics, with non-English-focused models generally struggling more in exoplanet-related fields, stellar astrophysics, and instrumentation related questions. These challenges likely stem from less abundant training data, limited historical context, and rapid recent developments in these areas. This pattern is observed across both open-weights and proprietary models, with regional dependencies evident, highlighting the impact of training data diversity on model performance in specialized scientific domains. Top-performing models demonstrate well-calibrated confidence, with correlations above 0.9 between confidence and correctness, though they tend to be slightly underconfident. The development for fast, low-cost inference of open-weights models presents new opportunities for affordable deployment in astronomy. The rapid progress observed suggests that LLM-driven research in astronomy may become feasible in the near future.

Large language models have made significant progress in complex but easy-to-verify problems, yet they still struggle with discovering the unknown. In this paper, we present AlphaResearch, an autonomous research agent designed to discover new algorithms on open-ended problems. To synergize the feasibility and innovation of the discovery process, we construct a novel dual research environment by combining the execution-based verify and simulated real-world peer review environment. AlphaResearch discovers new algorithm by iteratively running the following steps: (1) propose new ideas (2) verify the ideas in the dual research environment (3) optimize the research proposals for better performance. To promote a transparent evaluation process, we construct AlphaResearchComp, a new evaluation benchmark that includes an eight open-ended algorithmic problems competition, with each problem carefully curated and verified through executable pipelines, objective metrics, and reproducibility checks. AlphaResearch gets a 2/8 win rate in head-to-head comparison with human researchers, demonstrate the possibility of accelerating algorithm discovery with LLMs. Notably, the algorithm discovered by AlphaResearch on the ``packing circles'' problem achieves the best-of-known performance, surpassing the results of human researchers and strong baselines from recent work (e.g., AlphaEvolve). Additionally, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of the remaining challenges of the 6/8 failure cases, providing valuable insights for future research.

We present an empirical evaluation of various outputs generated by nine of the most widely-available large language models (LLMs). Our analysis is done with off-the-shelf, readily-available tools. We find a correlation between percentage of memorized text, percentage of unique text, and overall output quality, when measured with respect to output pathologies such as counterfactual and logically-flawed statements, and general failures like not staying on topic. Overall, 80.0% of the outputs evaluated contained memorized data, but outputs containing the most memorized content were also more likely to be considered of high quality. We discuss and evaluate mitigation strategies, showing that, in the models evaluated, the rate of memorized text being output is reduced. We conclude with a discussion on potential implications around what it means to learn, to memorize, and to evaluate quality text.

The widespread adoption of large language models (LLMs) makes it important to recognize their strengths and limitations. We argue that in order to develop a holistic understanding of these systems we need to consider the problem that they were trained to solve: next-word prediction over Internet text. By recognizing the pressures that this task exerts we can make predictions about the strategies that LLMs will adopt, allowing us to reason about when they will succeed or fail. This approach - which we call the teleological approach - leads us to identify three factors that we hypothesize will influence LLM accuracy: the probability of the task to be performed, the probability of the target output, and the probability of the provided input. We predict that LLMs will achieve higher accuracy when these probabilities are high than when they are low - even in deterministic settings where probability should not matter. To test our predictions, we evaluate two LLMs (GPT-3.5 and GPT-4) on eleven tasks, and we find robust evidence that LLMs are influenced by probability in the ways that we have hypothesized. In many cases, the experiments reveal surprising failure modes. For instance, GPT-4's accuracy at decoding a simple cipher is 51% when the output is a high-probability word sequence but only 13% when it is low-probability. These results show that AI practitioners should be careful about using LLMs in low-probability situations. More broadly, we conclude that we should not evaluate LLMs as if they are humans but should instead treat them as a distinct type of system - one that has been shaped by its own particular set of pressures.

Machine unlearning for LLMs aims to remove sensitive or copyrighted data from trained models. However, the true efficacy of current unlearning methods remains uncertain. Standard evaluation metrics rely on benign queries that often mistake superficial information suppression for genuine knowledge removal. Such metrics fail to detect residual knowledge that more sophisticated prompting strategies could still extract. We introduce REBEL, an evolutionary approach for adversarial prompt generation designed to probe whether unlearned data can still be recovered. Our experiments demonstrate that REBEL successfully elicits ``forgotten'' knowledge from models that seemed to be forgotten in standard unlearning benchmarks, revealing that current unlearning methods may provide only a superficial layer of protection. We validate our framework on subsets of the TOFU and WMDP benchmarks, evaluating performance across a diverse suite of unlearning algorithms. Our experiments show that REBEL consistently outperforms static baselines, recovering ``forgotten'' knowledge with Attack Success Rates (ASRs) reaching up to 60% on TOFU and 93% on WMDP. We will make all code publicly available upon acceptance. Code is available at https://github.com/patryk-rybak/REBEL/

Recent observations have underscored a disparity between the inflated benchmark scores and the actual performance of LLMs, raising concerns about potential contamination of evaluation benchmarks. This issue is especially critical for closed-source models and certain open-source models where training data transparency is lacking. In this paper we study data contamination by proposing two methods tailored for both open-source and proprietary LLMs. We first introduce a retrieval-based system to explore potential overlaps between evaluation benchmarks and pretraining corpora. We further present a novel investigation protocol named Testset Slot Guessing (TS-Guessing), applicable to both open and proprietary models. This approach entails masking a wrong answer in a multiple-choice question and prompting the model to fill in the gap. Additionally, it involves obscuring an unlikely word in an evaluation example and asking the model to produce it. We find that certain commercial LLMs could surprisingly guess the missing option in various test sets. Specifically, in the TruthfulQA benchmark, we find that LLMs exhibit notable performance improvement when provided with additional metadata in the benchmark. Further, in the MMLU benchmark, ChatGPT and GPT-4 demonstrated an exact match rate of 52\% and 57\%, respectively, in guessing the missing options in benchmark test data. We hope these results underscore the need for more robust evaluation methodologies and benchmarks in the field.

How can we use AI to discover a new state of the art for a scientific problem? Prior work in test-time scaling, such as AlphaEvolve, performs search by prompting a frozen LLM. We perform reinforcement learning at test time, so the LLM can continue to train, but now with experience specific to the test problem. This form of continual learning is quite special, because its goal is to produce one great solution rather than many good ones on average, and to solve this very problem rather than generalize to other problems. Therefore, our learning objective and search subroutine are designed to prioritize the most promising solutions. We call this method Test-Time Training to Discover (TTT-Discover). Following prior work, we focus on problems with continuous rewards. We report results for every problem we attempted, across mathematics, GPU kernel engineering, algorithm design, and biology. TTT-Discover sets the new state of the art in almost all of them: (i) Erdős' minimum overlap problem and an autocorrelation inequality; (ii) a GPUMode kernel competition (up to 2times faster than prior art); (iii) past AtCoder algorithm competitions; and (iv) denoising problem in single-cell analysis. Our solutions are reviewed by experts or the organizers. All our results are achieved with an open model, OpenAI gpt-oss-120b, and can be reproduced with our publicly available code, in contrast to previous best results that required closed frontier models. Our test-time training runs are performed using Tinker, an API by Thinking Machines, with a cost of only a few hundred dollars per problem.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities, revolutionizing the integration of AI in daily life applications. However, they are prone to hallucinations, generating claims that contradict established facts, deviating from prompts, and producing inconsistent responses when the same prompt is presented multiple times. Addressing these issues is challenging due to the lack of comprehensive and easily assessable benchmark datasets. Most existing datasets are small and rely on multiple-choice questions, which are inadequate for evaluating the generative prowess of LLMs. To measure hallucination in LLMs, this paper introduces a comprehensive benchmark dataset comprising over 75,000 prompts across eight domains. These prompts are designed to elicit definitive, concise, and informative answers. The dataset is divided into two segments: one publicly available for testing and assessing LLM performance and a hidden segment for benchmarking various LLMs. In our experiments, we tested six LLMs-GPT-3.5, LLama 2, LLama 3, Gemini, Mixtral, and Zephyr-revealing that overall factual hallucination ranges from 59% to 82% on the public dataset and 57% to 76% in the hidden benchmark. Prompt misalignment hallucination ranges from 6% to 95% in the public dataset and 17% to 94% in the hidden counterpart. Average consistency ranges from 21% to 61% and 22% to 63%, respectively. Domain-wise analysis shows that LLM performance significantly deteriorates when asked for specific numeric information while performing moderately with person, location, and date queries. Our dataset demonstrates its efficacy and serves as a comprehensive benchmark for LLM performance evaluation. Our dataset and LLMs responses are available at https://github.com/ashikiut/DefAn{https://github.com/ashikiut/DefAn}.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.

Diffusion models have emerged as the principal paradigm for generative modeling across various domains. During training, they learn the score function, which in turn is used to generate samples at inference. They raise a basic yet unsolved question: which score do they actually learn? In principle, a diffusion model that matches the empirical score in the entire data space would simply reproduce the training data, failing to generate novel samples. Recent work addresses this question by arguing that diffusion models underfit the empirical score due to training-time inductive biases. In this work, we refine this perspective, introducing the notion of selective underfitting: instead of underfitting the score everywhere, better diffusion models more accurately approximate the score in certain regions of input space, while underfitting it in others. We characterize these regions and design empirical interventions to validate our perspective. Our results establish that selective underfitting is essential for understanding diffusion models, yielding new, testable insights into their generalization and generative performance.

Current deep learning methods are regarded as favorable if they empirically perform well on dedicated test sets. This mentality is seamlessly reflected in the resurfacing area of continual learning, where consecutively arriving data is investigated. The core challenge is framed as protecting previously acquired representations from being catastrophically forgotten. However, comparison of individual methods is nevertheless performed in isolation from the real world by monitoring accumulated benchmark test set performance. The closed world assumption remains predominant, i.e. models are evaluated on data that is guaranteed to originate from the same distribution as used for training. This poses a massive challenge as neural networks are well known to provide overconfident false predictions on unknown and corrupted instances. In this work we critically survey the literature and argue that notable lessons from open set recognition, identifying unknown examples outside of the observed set, and the adjacent field of active learning, querying data to maximize the expected performance gain, are frequently overlooked in the deep learning era. Hence, we propose a consolidated view to bridge continual learning, active learning and open set recognition in deep neural networks. Finally, the established synergies are supported empirically, showing joint improvement in alleviating catastrophic forgetting, querying data, selecting task orders, while exhibiting robust open world application.

We consider the classic supervised learning problem, where a continuous non-negative random label Y (i.e. a random duration) is to be predicted based upon observing a random vector X valued in R^d with dgeq 1 by means of a regression rule with minimum least square error. In various applications, ranging from industrial quality control to public health through credit risk analysis for instance, training observations can be right censored, meaning that, rather than on independent copies of (X,Y), statistical learning relies on a collection of ngeq 1 independent realizations of the triplet (X, ; min{Y,; C},; δ), where C is a nonnegative r.v. with unknown distribution, modeling censorship and δ=I{Yleq C} indicates whether the duration is right censored or not. As ignoring censorship in the risk computation may clearly lead to a severe underestimation of the target duration and jeopardize prediction, we propose to consider a plug-in estimate of the true risk based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator of the conditional survival function of the censorship C given X, referred to as Kaplan-Meier risk, in order to perform empirical risk minimization. It is established, under mild conditions, that the learning rate of minimizers of this biased/weighted empirical risk functional is of order O_{P}(log(n)/n) when ignoring model bias issues inherent to plug-in estimation, as can be attained in absence of censorship. Beyond theoretical results, numerical experiments are presented in order to illustrate the relevance of the approach developed.

While pretraining on large-scale image-text data from the Web has facilitated rapid progress on many vision-and-language (V&L) tasks, recent work has demonstrated that pretrained models lack "fine-grained" understanding, such as the ability to recognise relationships, verbs, and numbers in images. This has resulted in an increased interest in the community to either develop new benchmarks or models for such capabilities. To better understand and quantify progress in this direction, we investigate four competitive V&L models on four fine-grained benchmarks. Through our analysis, we find that X-VLM (Zeng et al., 2022) consistently outperforms other baselines, and that modelling innovations can impact performance more than scaling Web data, which even degrades performance sometimes. Through a deeper investigation of X-VLM, we highlight the importance of both novel losses and rich data sources for learning fine-grained skills. Finally, we inspect training dynamics, and discover that for some tasks, performance peaks early in training or significantly fluctuates, never converging.

The proliferation of large language models has raised growing concerns about their misuse, particularly in cases where AI-generated text is falsely attributed to human authors. Machine-generated content detectors claim to effectively identify such text under various conditions and from any language model. This paper critically evaluates these claims by assessing several popular detectors (RADAR, Wild, T5Sentinel, Fast-DetectGPT, PHD, LogRank, Binoculars) on a range of domains, datasets, and models that these detectors have not previously encountered. We employ various prompting strategies to simulate practical adversarial attacks, demonstrating that even moderate efforts can significantly evade detection. We emphasize the importance of the true positive rate at a specific false positive rate (TPR@FPR) metric and demonstrate that these detectors perform poorly in certain settings, with TPR@.01 as low as 0%. Our findings suggest that both trained and zero-shot detectors struggle to maintain high sensitivity while achieving a reasonable true positive rate.

Empirical evaluation serves as the primary compass guiding research progress in foundation models. Despite a large body of work focused on training frontier vision-language models (VLMs), approaches to their evaluation remain nascent. To guide their maturation, we propose three desiderata that evaluations should satisfy: (1) faithfulness to the modality and application, (2) discriminability between models of varying quality, and (3) efficiency in compute. Through this lens, we identify critical failure modes that violate faithfulness and discriminability, misrepresenting model capabilities: (i) multiple-choice formats reward guessing, poorly reflect downstream use cases, and saturate early as models improve; (ii) blindly solvable questions, which can be answered without images, constitute up to 70% of some evaluations; and (iii) mislabeled or ambiguous samples compromise up to 42% of examples in certain datasets. Regarding efficiency, the computational burden of evaluating frontier models has become prohibitive: by some accounts, nearly 20% of development compute is devoted to evaluation alone. Rather than discarding existing benchmarks, we curate them via transformation and filtering to maximize fidelity and discriminability. We find that converting multiple-choice questions to generative tasks reveals sharp capability drops of up to 35%. In addition, filtering blindly solvable and mislabeled samples improves discriminative power while simultaneously reducing computational cost. We release DatBench-Full, a cleaned evaluation suite of 33 datasets spanning nine VLM capabilities, and DatBench, a discriminative subset that achieves 13x average speedup (up to 50x) while closely matching the discriminative power of the original datasets. Our work outlines a path toward evaluation practices that are both rigorous and sustainable as VLMs continue to scale.

Nearly all jurisdictions in the United States require a professional license exam, commonly referred to as "the Bar Exam," as a precondition for law practice. To even sit for the exam, most jurisdictions require that an applicant completes at least seven years of post-secondary education, including three years at an accredited law school. In addition, most test-takers also undergo weeks to months of further, exam-specific preparation. Despite this significant investment of time and capital, approximately one in five test-takers still score under the rate required to pass the exam on their first try. In the face of a complex task that requires such depth of knowledge, what, then, should we expect of the state of the art in "AI?" In this research, we document our experimental evaluation of the performance of OpenAI's `text-davinci-003` model, often-referred to as GPT-3.5, on the multistate multiple choice (MBE) section of the exam. While we find no benefit in fine-tuning over GPT-3.5's zero-shot performance at the scale of our training data, we do find that hyperparameter optimization and prompt engineering positively impacted GPT-3.5's zero-shot performance. For best prompt and parameters, GPT-3.5 achieves a headline correct rate of 50.3% on a complete NCBE MBE practice exam, significantly in excess of the 25% baseline guessing rate, and performs at a passing rate for both Evidence and Torts. GPT-3.5's ranking of responses is also highly-correlated with correctness; its top two and top three choices are correct 71% and 88% of the time, respectively, indicating very strong non-entailment performance. While our ability to interpret these results is limited by nascent scientific understanding of LLMs and the proprietary nature of GPT, we believe that these results strongly suggest that an LLM will pass the MBE component of the Bar Exam in the near future.

Scaling law principles indicate a power-law correlation between loss and variables such as model size, dataset size, and computational resources utilized during training. These principles play a vital role in optimizing various aspects of model pre-training, ultimately contributing to the success of large language models such as GPT-4, Llama and Gemini. However, the original scaling law paper by OpenAI did not disclose the complete details necessary to derive the precise scaling law formulas, and their conclusions are only based on models containing up to 1.5 billion parameters. Though some subsequent works attempt to unveil these details and scale to larger models, they often neglect the training dependency of important factors such as the learning rate, context length and batch size, leading to their failure to establish a reliable formula for predicting the test loss trajectory. In this technical report, we confirm that the scaling law formulations proposed in the original OpenAI paper remain valid when scaling the model size up to 33 billion, but the constant coefficients in these formulas vary significantly with the experiment setup. We meticulously identify influential factors and provide transparent, step-by-step instructions to estimate all constant terms in scaling-law formulas by training on models with only 1M~60M parameters. Using these estimated formulas, we showcase the capability to accurately predict various attributes for models with up to 33B parameters before their training, including (1) the minimum possible test loss; (2) the minimum required training steps and processed tokens to achieve a specific loss; (3) the critical batch size with an optimal time/computation trade-off at any loss value; and (4) the complete test loss trajectory with arbitrary batch size.

The approval success rate of drug candidates is very low with the majority of failure due to safety and efficacy. Increasingly available high dimensional information on targets, drug molecules and indications provides an opportunity for ML methods to integrate multiple data modalities and better predict clinically promising drug targets. Notably, drug targets with human genetics evidence are shown to have better odds to succeed. However, a recent tensor factorization-based approach found that additional information on targets and indications might not necessarily improve the predictive accuracy. Here we revisit this approach by integrating different types of human genetics evidence collated from publicly available sources to support each target-indication pair. We use Bayesian tensor factorization to show that models incorporating all available human genetics evidence (rare disease, gene burden, common disease) modestly improves the clinical outcome prediction over models using single line of genetics evidence. We provide additional insight into the relative predictive power of different types of human genetics evidence for predicting the success of clinical outcomes.

We study the process through which reasoning models trained with reinforcement learning on verifiable rewards (RLVR) can learn to solve new problems. We find that RLVR drives performance in two main ways: (1) by compressing pass@k into pass@1 and (2) via "capability gain" in which models learn to solve new problems that they previously could not solve even at high k. We find that while capability gain exists across model scales, learning to solve new problems is primarily driven through self-distillation. We demonstrate these findings across model scales ranging from 0.5B to 72B parameters on >500,000 reasoning problems with prompts and verifiable final answers across math, science, and code domains. We further show that we can significantly improve pass@k rates by leveraging natural language guidance for the model to consider within context while still requiring the model to derive a solution chain from scratch. Based of these insights, we derive Guide -- a new class of online training algorithms. Guide adaptively incorporates hints into the model's context on problems for which all rollouts were initially incorrect and adjusts the importance sampling ratio for the "off-policy" trajectories in order to optimize the policy for contexts in which the hints are no longer present. We describe variants of Guide for GRPO and PPO and empirically show that Guide-GRPO on 7B and 32B parameter models improves generalization over its vanilla counterpart with up to 4% macro-average improvement across math benchmarks. We include careful ablations to analyze Guide's components and theoretically analyze Guide's learning efficiency.

Fine-tuning pretrained contextual word embedding models to supervised downstream tasks has become commonplace in natural language processing. This process, however, is often brittle: even with the same hyperparameter values, distinct random seeds can lead to substantially different results. To better understand this phenomenon, we experiment with four datasets from the GLUE benchmark, fine-tuning BERT hundreds of times on each while varying only the random seeds. We find substantial performance increases compared to previously reported results, and we quantify how the performance of the best-found model varies as a function of the number of fine-tuning trials. Further, we examine two factors influenced by the choice of random seed: weight initialization and training data order. We find that both contribute comparably to the variance of out-of-sample performance, and that some weight initializations perform well across all tasks explored. On small datasets, we observe that many fine-tuning trials diverge part of the way through training, and we offer best practices for practitioners to stop training less promising runs early. We publicly release all of our experimental data, including training and validation scores for 2,100 trials, to encourage further analysis of training dynamics during fine-tuning.

Neural scaling laws (NSL) refer to the phenomenon where model performance improves with scale. Sharma & Kaplan analyzed NSL using approximation theory and predict that MSE losses decay as N^{-alpha}, alpha=4/d, where N is the number of model parameters, and d is the intrinsic input dimension. Although their theory works well for some cases (e.g., ReLU networks), we surprisingly find that a simple 1D problem y=x^2 manifests a different scaling law (alpha=1) from their predictions (alpha=4). We opened the neural networks and found that the new scaling law originates from lottery ticket ensembling: a wider network on average has more "lottery tickets", which are ensembled to reduce the variance of outputs. We support the ensembling mechanism by mechanistically interpreting single neural networks, as well as studying them statistically. We attribute the N^{-1} scaling law to the "central limit theorem" of lottery tickets. Finally, we discuss its potential implications for large language models and statistical physics-type theories of learning.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Amid mounting concern about the reliability and credibility of machine learning research, we present a principled framework for making robust and generalizable claims: the multiverse analysis. Our framework builds upon the multiverse analysis (Steegen et al., 2016) introduced in response to psychology's own reproducibility crisis. To efficiently explore high-dimensional and often continuous ML search spaces, we model the multiverse with a Gaussian Process surrogate and apply Bayesian experimental design. Our framework is designed to facilitate drawing robust scientific conclusions about model performance, and thus our approach focuses on exploration rather than conventional optimization. In the first of two case studies, we investigate disputed claims about the relative merit of adaptive optimizers. Second, we synthesize conflicting research on the effect of learning rate on the large batch training generalization gap. For the machine learning community, the multiverse analysis is a simple and effective technique for identifying robust claims, for increasing transparency, and a step toward improved reproducibility.

Existing question answering (QA) datasets are no longer challenging to most powerful Large Language Models (LLMs). Traditional QA benchmarks like TriviaQA, NaturalQuestions, ELI5 and HotpotQA mainly study ``known unknowns'' with clear indications of both what information is missing, and how to find it to answer the question. Hence, good performance on these benchmarks provides a false sense of security. A yet unmet need of the NLP community is a bank of non-factoid, multi-perspective questions involving a great deal of unclear information needs, i.e. ``unknown uknowns''. We claim we can find such questions in search engine logs, which is surprising because most question-intent queries are indeed factoid. We present Researchy Questions, a dataset of search engine queries tediously filtered to be non-factoid, ``decompositional'' and multi-perspective. We show that users spend a lot of ``effort'' on these questions in terms of signals like clicks and session length, and that they are also challenging for GPT-4. We also show that ``slow thinking'' answering techniques, like decomposition into sub-questions shows benefit over answering directly. We release sim 100k Researchy Questions, along with the Clueweb22 URLs that were clicked.

Deep Learning based models are currently dominating most state-of-the-art solutions for disease prediction. Existing works employ RNNs along with multiple levels of attention mechanisms to provide interpretability. These deep learning models, with trainable parameters running into millions, require huge amounts of compute and data to train and deploy. These requirements are sometimes so huge that they render usage of such models as unfeasible. We address these challenges by developing a simpler yet interpretable non-deep learning based model for application to EHR data. We model and showcase our work's results on the task of predicting first occurrence of a diagnosis, often overlooked in existing works. We push the capabilities of a tree based model and come up with a strong baseline for more sophisticated models. Its performance shows an improvement over deep learning based solutions (both, with and without the first-occurrence constraint) all the while maintaining interpretability.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise in accelerating the scientific research pipeline. A key capability for this process is the ability to generate novel research ideas, and prior studies have found settings in which LLM-generated research ideas were judged as more novel than human-expert ideas. However, a good idea should not simply appear to be novel, it should also result in better research after being executed. To test whether AI-generated ideas lead to better research outcomes, we conduct an execution study by recruiting 43 expert researchers to execute randomly-assigned ideas, either written by experts or generated by an LLM. Each expert spent over 100 hours implementing the idea and wrote a 4-page short paper to document the experiments. All the executed projects are then reviewed blindly by expert NLP researchers. Comparing the review scores of the same ideas before and after execution, the scores of the LLM-generated ideas decrease significantly more than expert-written ideas on all evaluation metrics (novelty, excitement, effectiveness, and overall; p < 0.05), closing the gap between LLM and human ideas observed at the ideation stage. When comparing the aggregated review scores from the execution study, we even observe that for many metrics there is a flip in rankings where human ideas score higher than LLM ideas. This ideation-execution gap highlights the limitations of current LLMs in generating truly effective research ideas and the challenge of evaluating research ideas in the absence of execution outcomes.

One of the most widely used methods to evaluate LLMs are Multiple Choice Question (MCQ) tests. MCQ benchmarks enable the testing of LLM knowledge on almost any topic at scale as the results can be processed automatically. To help the LLM answer, a few examples called few shots can be included in the prompt. Moreover, the LLM can be asked to answer the question directly with the selected option or to first provide the reasoning and then the selected answer, which is known as chain of thought. In addition to checking whether the selected answer is correct, the evaluation can look at the LLM-estimated probability of its response as an indication of the confidence of the LLM in the response. In this paper, we study how the LLM confidence in its answer depends on whether the model has been asked to answer directly or to provide the reasoning before answering. The results of the evaluation of questions on a wide range of topics in seven different models show that LLMs are more confident in their answers when they provide reasoning before the answer. This occurs regardless of whether the selected answer is correct. Our hypothesis is that this behavior is due to the reasoning that modifies the probability of the selected answer, as the LLM predicts the answer based on the input question and the reasoning that supports the selection made. Therefore, LLM estimated probabilities seem to have intrinsic limitations that should be understood in order to use them in evaluation procedures. Interestingly, the same behavior has been observed in humans, for whom explaining an answer increases confidence in its correctness.

The surprisingly likely criterion in the seminal work of Prelec (the Bayesian Truth Serum) guarantees truthfulness in a game-theoretic multi-agent setting, by rewarding rational agents to maximise the expected information gain with their answers w.r.t. their probabilistic beliefs. We investigate the relevance of a similar criterion for responses of LLMs. We hypothesize that if the surprisingly likely criterion works in LLMs, under certain conditions, the responses that maximize the reward under this criterion should be more accurate than the responses that only maximize the posterior probability. Using benchmarks including the TruthfulQA benchmark and using openly available LLMs: GPT-2 and LLaMA-2, we show that the method indeed improves the accuracy significantly (for example, upto 24 percentage points aggregate improvement on TruthfulQA and upto 70 percentage points improvement on individual categories of questions).

With the advent of large language models (LLMs) like GPT-3, a natural question is the extent to which these models can be utilized for source code optimization. This paper presents methodologically stringent case studies applied to well-known open source python libraries pillow and numpy. We find that contemporary LLM ChatGPT-4 (state September and October 2023) is surprisingly adept at optimizing energy and compute efficiency. However, this is only the case in interactive use, with a human expert in the loop. Aware of experimenter bias, we document our qualitative approach in detail, and provide transcript and source code. We start by providing a detailed description of our approach in conversing with the LLM to optimize the _getextrema function in the pillow library, and a quantitative evaluation of the performance improvement. To demonstrate qualitative replicability, we report further attempts on another locus in the pillow library, and one code locus in the numpy library, to demonstrate generalization within and beyond a library. In all attempts, the performance improvement is significant (factor up to 38). We have also not omitted reporting of failed attempts (there were none). We conclude that LLMs are a promising tool for code optimization in open source libraries, but that the human expert in the loop is essential for success. Nonetheless, we were surprised by how few iterations were required to achieve substantial performance improvements that were not obvious to the expert in the loop. We would like bring attention to the qualitative nature of this study, more robust quantitative studies would need to introduce a layer of selecting experts in a representative sample -- we invite the community to collaborate.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

Deep neural networks often rely on spurious correlations to make predictions, which hinders generalization beyond training environments. For instance, models that associate cats with bed backgrounds can fail to predict the existence of cats in other environments without beds. Mitigating spurious correlations is crucial in building trustworthy models. However, the existing works lack transparency to offer insights into the mitigation process. In this work, we propose an interpretable framework, Discover and Cure (DISC), to tackle the issue. With human-interpretable concepts, DISC iteratively 1) discovers unstable concepts across different environments as spurious attributes, then 2) intervenes on the training data using the discovered concepts to reduce spurious correlation. Across systematic experiments, DISC provides superior generalization ability and interpretability than the existing approaches. Specifically, it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on an object recognition task and a skin-lesion classification task by 7.5% and 9.6%, respectively. Additionally, we offer theoretical analysis and guarantees to understand the benefits of models trained by DISC. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Wuyxin/DISC.

Recent advancements in language models have led to significant improvements in mathematical reasoning across various benchmarks. However, most of these benchmarks rely on automatic evaluation methods that only compare final answers using heuristics, without verifying the underlying reasoning steps. This limitation results in false positive solutions, where models may produce correct final answers but with flawed deduction paths. In this paper, we systematically examine the prevalence of false positive solutions in mathematical problem solving for language models. We analyze the characteristics and extent of this issue across different open-source models, datasets of varying difficulty levels, and decoding strategies. Specifically, we explore how false positives influence the inference time scaling behavior of language models. Our experimental results reveal that: (1) false positive solutions persist across different models, datasets, and decoding methods, (2) sampling-based inference time scaling methods do not alleviate the problem, and (3) the pass@N evaluation metric is more susceptible to false positives, suggesting a significantly lower scaling ceiling than what automatic evaluations indicate. Additionally, we analyze specific instances of false positives and discuss potential limitations in self-improvement techniques and synthetic data generation under such conditions. Our data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/Wloner0809/False-Positives-in-Math.

Rigorous and reproducible evaluation is critical for assessing the state of the art and for guiding scientific advances in Artificial Intelligence. Evaluation is challenging in practice due to several reasons, including benchmark saturation, lack of transparency in methods used for measurement, development challenges in extracting measurements for generative tasks, and, more generally, the extensive number of capabilities required for a well-rounded comparison across models. We make three contributions to alleviate the above challenges. First, we present Eureka, an open-source framework for standardizing evaluations of large foundation models beyond single-score reporting and rankings. Second, we introduce Eureka-Bench as an extensible collection of benchmarks testing capabilities that (i) are still challenging for state-of-the-art models and (ii) represent fundamental but overlooked language and multimodal capabilities. The inherent space for improvement in non-saturated benchmarks enables us to discover meaningful differences between models at a capability level. Third, using Eureka, we conduct an analysis of 12 state-of-the-art models, providing in-depth insights into failure understanding and model comparison, which can be leveraged to plan targeted improvements. In contrast to recent trends in reports and leaderboards showing absolute rankings and claims for one model or another to be the best, our analysis shows that there is no such best model. Different models have different strengths, but there are models that appear more often than others as best performers for some capabilities. Despite the recent improvements, current models still struggle with several fundamental capabilities including detailed image understanding, benefiting from multimodal input when available rather than fully relying on language, factuality and grounding for information retrieval, and over refusals.

Naturally occurring information-seeking questions often contain questionable assumptions -- assumptions that are false or unverifiable. Questions containing questionable assumptions are challenging because they require a distinct answer strategy that deviates from typical answers for information-seeking questions. For instance, the question "When did Marie Curie discover Uranium?" cannot be answered as a typical "when" question without addressing the false assumption "Marie Curie discovered Uranium". In this work, we propose (QA)^2 (Question Answering with Questionable Assumptions), an open-domain evaluation dataset consisting of naturally occurring search engine queries that may or may not contain questionable assumptions. To be successful on (QA)^2, systems must be able to detect questionable assumptions and also be able to produce adequate responses for both typical information-seeking questions and ones with questionable assumptions. Through human rater acceptability on end-to-end QA with (QA)^2, we find that current models do struggle with handling questionable assumptions, leaving substantial headroom for progress.

In science and medicine, model interpretations may be reported as discoveries of natural phenomena or used to guide patient treatments. In such high-stakes tasks, false discoveries may lead investigators astray. These applications would therefore benefit from control over the finite-sample error rate of interpretations. We reframe black box model interpretability as a multiple hypothesis testing problem. The task is to discover "important" features by testing whether the model prediction is significantly different from what would be expected if the features were replaced with uninformative counterfactuals. We propose two testing methods: one that provably controls the false discovery rate but which is not yet feasible for large-scale applications, and an approximate testing method which can be applied to real-world data sets. In simulation, both tests have high power relative to existing interpretability methods. When applied to state-of-the-art vision and language models, the framework selects features that intuitively explain model predictions. The resulting explanations have the additional advantage that they are themselves easy to interpret.

Background: Generative artificial intelligence (AI) deployment in academic medical settings raises copyright compliance concerns. Dana-Farber Cancer Institute implemented GPT4DFCI, an internal generative AI tool utilizing OpenAI models, that is approved for enterprise use in research and operations. Given (1) the exceptionally broad adoption of the tool in our organization, (2) our research mission, and (3) the shared responsibility model required to benefit from Customer Copyright Commitment in Azure OpenAI Service products, we deemed rigorous copyright compliance testing necessary. Case Description: We conducted a structured red teaming exercise in Nov. 2024, with 42 participants from academic, industry, and government institutions. Four teams attempted to extract copyrighted content from GPT4DFCI across four domains: literary works, news articles, scientific publications, and access-restricted clinical notes. Teams successfully extracted verbatim book dedications and near-exact passages through various strategies. News article extraction failed despite jailbreak attempts. Scientific article reproduction yielded only high-level summaries. Clinical note testing revealed appropriate privacy safeguards. Discussion: The successful extraction of literary content indicates potential copyrighted material presence in training data, necessitating inference-time filtering. Differential success rates across content types suggest varying protective mechanisms. The event led to implementation of a copyright-specific meta-prompt in GPT4DFCI; this mitigation has been in production since Jan. 2025. Conclusion: Systematic red teaming revealed specific vulnerabilities in generative AI copyright compliance, leading to concrete mitigation strategies. Academic medical institutions deploying generative AI should implement continuous testing protocols to ensure legal and ethical compliance.

Recently there have been many shared tasks targeting the detection of generated text from Large Language Models (LLMs). However, these shared tasks tend to focus either on cases where text is limited to one particular domain or cases where text can be from many domains, some of which may not be seen during test time. In this shared task, using the newly released RAID benchmark, we aim to answer whether or not models can detect generated text from a large, yet fixed, number of domains and LLMs, all of which are seen during training. Over the course of three months, our task was attempted by 9 teams with 23 detector submissions. We find that multiple participants were able to obtain accuracies of over 99% on machine-generated text from RAID while maintaining a 5% False Positive Rate -- suggesting that detectors are able to robustly detect text from many domains and models simultaneously. We discuss potential interpretations of this result and provide directions for future research.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are popular for their impressive abilities, but the need for model-specific fine-tuning or task-specific prompt engineering can hinder their generalization. We propose UPRISE (Universal Prompt Retrieval for Improving zero-Shot Evaluation), which tunes a lightweight and versatile retriever that automatically retrieves prompts for a given zero-shot task input. Specifically, we demonstrate universality in a cross-task and cross-model scenario: the retriever is tuned on a diverse set of tasks, but tested on unseen task types; we use a small frozen LLM, GPT-Neo-2.7B, for tuning the retriever, but test the retriever on different LLMs of much larger scales, such as BLOOM-7.1B, OPT-66B and GPT3-175B. Additionally, we show that UPRISE mitigates the hallucination problem in our experiments with ChatGPT, suggesting its potential to improve even the strongest LLMs. Our model and code are available at https://github.com/microsoft/LMOps.

Words of estimative probability (WEP) are expressions of a statement's plausibility (probably, maybe, likely, doubt, likely, unlikely, impossible...). Multiple surveys demonstrate the agreement of human evaluators when assigning numerical probability levels to WEP. For example, highly likely corresponds to a median chance of 0.90+-0.08 in Fagen-Ulmschneider (2015)'s survey. In this work, we measure the ability of neural language processing models to capture the consensual probability level associated to each WEP. Firstly, we use the UNLI dataset (Chen et al., 2020) which associates premises and hypotheses with their perceived joint probability p, to construct prompts, e.g. "[PREMISE]. [WEP], [HYPOTHESIS]." and assess whether language models can predict whether the WEP consensual probability level is close to p. Secondly, we construct a dataset of WEP-based probabilistic reasoning, to test whether language models can reason with WEP compositions. When prompted "[EVENTA] is likely. [EVENTB] is impossible.", a causal language model should not express that [EVENTA&B] is likely. We show that both tasks are unsolved by off-the-shelf English language models, but that fine-tuning leads to transferable improvement.

Today, most newsreaders read the online version of news articles rather than traditional paper-based newspapers. Also, news media publishers rely heavily on the income generated from subscriptions and website visits made by newsreaders. Thus, online user engagement is a very important issue for online newspapers. Much effort has been spent on writing interesting headlines to catch the attention of online users. On the other hand, headlines should not be misleading (e.g., clickbaits); otherwise, readers would be disappointed when reading the content. In this paper, we propose four indicators to determine the quality of published news headlines based on their click count and dwell time, which are obtained by website log analysis. Then, we use soft target distribution of the calculated quality indicators to train our proposed deep learning model which can predict the quality of unpublished news headlines. The proposed model not only processes the latent features of both headline and body of the article to predict its headline quality but also considers the semantic relation between headline and body as well. To evaluate our model, we use a real dataset from a major Canadian newspaper. Results show our proposed model outperforms other state-of-the-art NLP models.