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Apr 17

Agent Skills for Large Language Models: Architecture, Acquisition, Security, and the Path Forward

The transition from monolithic language models to modular, skill-equipped agents marks a defining shift in how large language models (LLMs) are deployed in practice. Rather than encoding all procedural knowledge within model weights, agent skills -- composable packages of instructions, code, and resources that agents load on demand -- enable dynamic capability extension without retraining. It is formalized in a paradigm of progressive disclosure, portable skill definitions, and integration with the Model Context Protocol (MCP). This survey provides a comprehensive treatment of the agent skills landscape, as it has rapidly evolved during the last few months. We organize the field along four axes: (i) architectural foundations, examining the SKILL.md specification, progressive context loading, and the complementary roles of skills and MCP; (ii) skill acquisition, covering reinforcement learning with skill libraries, autonomous skill discovery (SEAgent), and compositional skill synthesis; (iii) deployment at scale, including the computer-use agent (CUA) stack, GUI grounding advances, and benchmark progress on OSWorld and SWE-bench; and (iv) security, where recent empirical analyses reveal that 26.1% of community-contributed skills contain vulnerabilities, motivating our proposed Skill Trust and Lifecycle Governance Framework -- a four-tier, gate-based permission model that maps skill provenance to graduated deployment capabilities. We identify seven open challenges -- from cross-platform skill portability to capability-based permission models -- and propose a research agenda for realizing trustworthy, self-improving skill ecosystems. Unlike prior surveys that broadly cover LLM agents or tool use, this work focuses specifically on the emerging skill abstraction layer and its implications for the next generation of agentic systems. Project repo: https://github.com/scienceaix/agentskills

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 12

Security Steerability is All You Need

The adoption of Generative AI (GenAI) in various applications inevitably comes with expanding the attack surface, combining new security threats along with the traditional ones. Consequently, numerous research and industrial initiatives aim to mitigate these security threats in GenAI by developing metrics and designing defenses. However, while most of the GenAI security work focuses on universal threats (e.g. manipulating the LLM to generate forbidden content), there is significantly less discussion on application-level security and how to mitigate it. Thus, in this work we adopt an application-centric approach to GenAI security, and show that while LLMs cannot protect against ad-hoc application specific threats, they can provide the framework for applications to protect themselves against such threats. Our first contribution is defining Security Steerability - a novel security measure for LLMs, assessing the model's capability to adhere to strict guardrails that are defined in the system prompt ('Refrain from discussing about politics'). These guardrails, in case effective, can stop threats in the presence of malicious users who attempt to circumvent the application and cause harm to its providers. Our second contribution is a methodology to measure the security steerability of LLMs, utilizing two newly-developed datasets: VeganRibs assesses the LLM behavior in forcing specific guardrails that are not security per se in the presence of malicious user that uses attack boosters (jailbreaks and perturbations), and ReverseText takes this approach further and measures the LLM ability to force specific treatment of the user input as plain text while do user try to give it additional meanings...

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 28, 2025

MentalArena: Self-play Training of Language Models for Diagnosis and Treatment of Mental Health Disorders

Mental health disorders are one of the most serious diseases in the world. Most people with such a disease lack access to adequate care, which highlights the importance of training models for the diagnosis and treatment of mental health disorders. However, in the mental health domain, privacy concerns limit the accessibility of personalized treatment data, making it challenging to build powerful models. In this paper, we introduce MentalArena, a self-play framework to train language models by generating domain-specific personalized data, where we obtain a better model capable of making a personalized diagnosis and treatment (as a therapist) and providing information (as a patient). To accurately model human-like mental health patients, we devise Symptom Encoder, which simulates a real patient from both cognition and behavior perspectives. To address intent bias during patient-therapist interactions, we propose Symptom Decoder to compare diagnosed symptoms with encoded symptoms, and dynamically manage the dialogue between patient and therapist according to the identified deviations. We evaluated MentalArena against 6 benchmarks, including biomedicalQA and mental health tasks, compared to 6 advanced models. Our models, fine-tuned on both GPT-3.5 and Llama-3-8b, significantly outperform their counterparts, including GPT-4o. We hope that our work can inspire future research on personalized care. Code is available in https://github.com/Scarelette/MentalArena/tree/main

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 9, 2024 2

The Impact of Medication Non-adherence on Adverse Outcomes: Evidence from Schizophrenia Patients via Survival Analysis

This study quantifies the association between non-adherence to antipsychotic medications and adverse outcomes in individuals with schizophrenia. We frame the problem using survival analysis, focusing on the time to the earliest of several adverse events (early death, involuntary hospitalization, jail booking). We extend standard causal inference methods (T-learner, S-learner, nearest neighbor matching) to utilize various survival models to estimate individual and average treatment effects, where treatment corresponds to medication non-adherence. Analyses are repeated using different amounts of longitudinal information (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Using data from Allegheny County in western Pennsylvania, we find strong evidence that non-adherence advances adverse outcomes by approximately 1 to 4 months. Ablation studies confirm that county-provided risk scores adjust for key confounders, as their removal amplifies the estimated effects. Subgroup analyses by medication formulation (injectable vs. oral) and medication type consistently show that non-adherence is associated with earlier adverse events. These findings highlight the clinical importance of adherence in delaying psychiatric crises and show that integrating survival analysis with causal inference tools can yield policy-relevant insights. We caution that although we apply causal inference, we only make associative claims and discuss assumptions needed for causal interpretation.

CLINIC: Evaluating Multilingual Trustworthiness in Language Models for Healthcare

Integrating language models (LMs) in healthcare systems holds great promise for improving medical workflows and decision-making. However, a critical barrier to their real-world adoption is the lack of reliable evaluation of their trustworthiness, especially in multilingual healthcare settings. Existing LMs are predominantly trained in high-resource languages, making them ill-equipped to handle the complexity and diversity of healthcare queries in mid- and low-resource languages, posing significant challenges for deploying them in global healthcare contexts where linguistic diversity is key. In this work, we present CLINIC, a Comprehensive Multilingual Benchmark to evaluate the trustworthiness of language models in healthcare. CLINIC systematically benchmarks LMs across five key dimensions of trustworthiness: truthfulness, fairness, safety, robustness, and privacy, operationalized through 18 diverse tasks, spanning 15 languages (covering all the major continents), and encompassing a wide array of critical healthcare topics like disease conditions, preventive actions, diagnostic tests, treatments, surgeries, and medications. Our extensive evaluation reveals that LMs struggle with factual correctness, demonstrate bias across demographic and linguistic groups, and are susceptible to privacy breaches and adversarial attacks. By highlighting these shortcomings, CLINIC lays the foundation for enhancing the global reach and safety of LMs in healthcare across diverse languages.

UVASDS UVA Data Science
·
Dec 12, 2025 2

Cost-effectiveness analysis for therapy sequence in advanced cancer: A microsimulation approach with application to metastatic prostate cancer

Purpose. Patients with advanced cancer may undergo multiple lines of treatment, switching therapies as their disease progresses. Motivated by a study of metastatic prostate cancer, we develop a microsimulation framework to study therapy sequence. Methods. We propose a discrete-time state transition model to study two lines of anti-cancer therapy. Based on digitized published progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) curves, we infer event types (progression or death), and estimate transition probabilities using cumulative incidence functions with competing risks. Our model incorporates within-patient dependence over time, such that response to first-line therapy informs subsequent event probabilities. Parameters governing the degree of within-patient dependence can be used to calibrate the model-based results to those of a target trial. We demonstrate these methods in a study of two therapy sequences for metastatic prostate cancer, where Docetaxel (DCT) and Abiraterone Acetate (AA) are both appropriate for use in either first or second line treatment. We assess costs, Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for two treatment strategies: DCT then AA vs AA then DCT. Results. Using digitized survival curves from relevant clinical trials, we identified 8.6-13.9% of PFS times that should be categorized as deaths, allowing for estimation of cumulative incidence functions. Models assuming within-patient independence overestimated OS time, corrected with our calibration approach. Correction resulted in meaningful changes in the difference in QALYs between treatment strategies (0.07 vs 0.15) and the ICER (-\76,836/QALY vs -21,030/QALY). Conclusions. Microsimulation models can be successfully used to study cost-effectiveness of therapy sequences, taking care to account correctly for within-patient dependence.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 10, 2022

Therapy as an NLP Task: Psychologists' Comparison of LLMs and Human Peers in CBT

Wider access to therapeutic care is one of the biggest challenges in mental health treatment. Due to institutional barriers, some people seeking mental health support have turned to large language models (LLMs) for personalized therapy, even though these models are largely unsanctioned and untested. We investigate the potential and limitations of using LLMs as providers of evidence-based therapy by using mixed methods clinical metrics. Using HELPERT, a prompt run on a large language model using the same process and training as a comparative group of peer counselors, we replicated publicly accessible mental health conversations rooted in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) to compare session dynamics and counselor's CBT-based behaviors between original peer support sessions and their reconstructed HELPERT sessions. Two licensed, CBT-trained clinical psychologists evaluated the sessions using the Cognitive Therapy Rating Scale and provided qualitative feedback. Our findings show that the peer sessions are characterized by empathy, small talk, therapeutic alliance, and shared experiences but often exhibit therapist drift. Conversely, HELPERT reconstructed sessions exhibit minimal therapist drift and higher adherence to CBT methods but display a lack of collaboration, empathy, and cultural understanding. Through CTRS ratings and psychologists' feedback, we highlight the importance of human-AI collaboration for scalable mental health. Our work outlines the ethical implication of imparting human-like subjective qualities to LLMs in therapeutic settings, particularly the risk of deceptive empathy, which may lead to unrealistic patient expectations and potential harm.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 3, 2024

Cross-Modality Jailbreak and Mismatched Attacks on Medical Multimodal Large Language Models

Security concerns related to Large Language Models (LLMs) have been extensively explored, yet the safety implications for Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs), particularly in medical contexts (MedMLLMs), remain insufficiently studied. This paper delves into the underexplored security vulnerabilities of MedMLLMs, especially when deployed in clinical environments where the accuracy and relevance of question-and-answer interactions are critically tested against complex medical challenges. By combining existing clinical medical data with atypical natural phenomena, we redefine two types of attacks: mismatched malicious attack (2M-attack) and optimized mismatched malicious attack (O2M-attack). Using our own constructed voluminous 3MAD dataset, which covers a wide range of medical image modalities and harmful medical scenarios, we conduct a comprehensive analysis and propose the MCM optimization method, which significantly enhances the attack success rate on MedMLLMs. Evaluations with this dataset and novel attack methods, including white-box attacks on LLaVA-Med and transfer attacks on four other state-of-the-art models, indicate that even MedMLLMs designed with enhanced security features are vulnerable to security breaches. Our work underscores the urgent need for a concerted effort to implement robust security measures and enhance the safety and efficacy of open-source MedMLLMs, particularly given the potential severity of jailbreak attacks and other malicious or clinically significant exploits in medical settings. For further research and replication, anonymous access to our code is available at https://github.com/dirtycomputer/O2M_attack. Warning: Medical large model jailbreaking may generate content that includes unverified diagnoses and treatment recommendations. Always consult professional medical advice.

  • 7 authors
·
May 26, 2024

Eir: Thai Medical Large Language Models

We present Eir Thai Medical LLM, a large language model with 8 billion parameters, specifically designed to enhance the accuracy of handling medical tasks in the Thai language. This model focuses on providing clear and easy-to-understand answers for both healthcare professionals and patients, thereby improving the efficiency of diagnosis and treatment processes. Human evaluation was conducted to ensure that the model adheres to care standards and provides unbiased answers. To prioritize data security, the model is deployed within the hospital's internal network, ensuring both high security and faster processing speeds. The internal API connection is secured with encryption and strict authentication measures to prevent data leaks and unauthorized access. We evaluated several open-source large language models with 8 billion parameters on four medical benchmarks: MedQA, MedMCQA, PubMedQA, and the medical subset of MMLU. The best-performing baselines were used to develop Eir Thai Medical LLM. Our evaluation employed multiple questioning strategies, including zero-shot, few-shot, chain-of-thought reasoning, and ensemble/self-consistency voting methods. Our model outperformed commercially available Thai-language large language models by more than 10%. In addition, we developed enhanced model testing tailored for clinical use in Thai across 18 clinical tasks, where our model exceeded GPT-4o performance by more than 11%

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 13, 2024

Beyond Benchmarks: Dynamic, Automatic And Systematic Red-Teaming Agents For Trustworthy Medical Language Models

Ensuring the safety and reliability of large language models (LLMs) in clinical practice is critical to prevent patient harm and promote trustworthy healthcare applications of AI. However, LLMs are advancing so rapidly that static safety benchmarks often become obsolete upon publication, yielding only an incomplete and sometimes misleading picture of model trustworthiness. We demonstrate that a Dynamic, Automatic, and Systematic (DAS) red-teaming framework that continuously stress-tests LLMs can reveal significant weaknesses of current LLMs across four safety-critical domains: robustness, privacy, bias/fairness, and hallucination. A suite of adversarial agents is applied to autonomously mutate test cases, identify/evolve unsafe-triggering strategies, and evaluate responses, uncovering vulnerabilities in real time without human intervention. Applying DAS to 15 proprietary and open-source LLMs revealed a stark contrast between static benchmark performance and vulnerability under adversarial pressure. Despite a median MedQA accuracy exceeding 80\%, 94\% of previously correct answers failed our dynamic robustness tests. We observed similarly high failure rates across other domains: privacy leaks were elicited in 86\% of scenarios, cognitive-bias priming altered clinical recommendations in 81\% of fairness tests, and we identified hallucination rates exceeding 66\% in widely used models. Such profound residual risks are incompatible with routine clinical practice. By converting red-teaming from a static checklist into a dynamic stress-test audit, DAS red-teaming offers the surveillance that hospitals/regulators/technology vendors require as LLMs become embedded in patient chatbots, decision-support dashboards, and broader healthcare workflows. Our framework delivers an evolvable, scalable, and reliable safeguard for the next generation of medical AI.

  • 21 authors
·
Jul 30, 2025

A mathematical model of Breast cancer (ER+) with excess estrogen: Mixed treatments using Ketogenic diet, endocrine therapy and Immunotherapy

Breast Cancer is a major public health problem and the most common diagnosed malignancy in woman. There have been significant developments in clinical approaches and theoretical experimental to understand the interactions of cancer cells dynamics with the immune system, also developments on analytical and computational models to help provide insights into clinical observations for a better understanding of cancer cells, but more are needed, especially at the genetic and molecular levels mathematically. Treatments such as immunotherapy, chemotherapy, hormone therapy, radiotherapy, and gene therapy are the main strategies in the fight against breast cancer. The present study aims at investigating the effects of estrogen derived from recent models, but this time combined with immunotherapy as a way to treat or inhibit the cancer growth by a mathematical model of breast cancer in situ, governed by a simplified model of nonlinear-coupled ordinary differential equations, that combines important interactions between natural cells, tumor cells, immune cells, ketogenic diet in the presence of an anticancer drug. Another contribution was to introduce the inhibition effect epsilon for new results and conclusions, A qualitative study was performed and biological interpretations were included to understand the conditions of stability in a realistic way.

  • 2 authors
·
May 24, 2022

Roleplaying with Structure: Synthetic Therapist-Client Conversation Generation from Questionnaires

The development of AI for mental health is hindered by a lack of authentic therapy dialogues, due to strict privacy regulations and the fact that clinical sessions were historically rarely recorded. We present an LLM-driven pipeline that generates synthetic counseling dialogues based on structured client profiles and psychological questionnaires. Grounded on the principles of Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT), our method creates synthetic therapeutic conversations for clinical disorders such as anxiety and depression. Our framework, SQPsych (Structured Questionnaire-based Psychotherapy), converts structured psychological input into natural language dialogues through therapist-client simulations. Due to data governance policies and privacy restrictions prohibiting the transmission of clinical questionnaire data to third-party services, previous methodologies relying on proprietary models are infeasible in our setting. We address this limitation by generating a high-quality corpus using open-weight LLMs, validated through human expert evaluation and LLM-based assessments. Our SQPsychLLM models fine-tuned on SQPsychConv achieve strong performance on counseling benchmarks, surpassing baselines in key therapeutic skills. Our findings highlight the potential of synthetic data to enable scalable, data-secure, and clinically informed AI for mental health support. We will release our code, models, and corpus at https://ai-mh.github.io/SQPsych

  • 12 authors
·
Oct 29, 2025

Assessing Risks of Large Language Models in Mental Health Support: A Framework for Automated Clinical AI Red Teaming

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized for mental health support; however, current safety benchmarks often fail to detect the complex, longitudinal risks inherent in therapeutic dialogue. We introduce an evaluation framework that pairs AI psychotherapists with simulated patient agents equipped with dynamic cognitive-affective models and assesses therapy session simulations against a comprehensive quality of care and risk ontology. We apply this framework to a high-impact test case, Alcohol Use Disorder, evaluating six AI agents (including ChatGPT, Gemini, and Character.AI) against a clinically-validated cohort of 15 patient personas representing diverse clinical phenotypes. Our large-scale simulation (N=369 sessions) reveals critical safety gaps in the use of AI for mental health support. We identify specific iatrogenic risks, including the validation of patient delusions ("AI Psychosis") and failure to de-escalate suicide risk. Finally, we validate an interactive data visualization dashboard with diverse stakeholders, including AI engineers and red teamers, mental health professionals, and policy experts (N=9), demonstrating that this framework effectively enables stakeholders to audit the "black box" of AI psychotherapy. These findings underscore the critical safety risks of AI-provided mental health support and the necessity of simulation-based clinical red teaming before deployment.

Detecting and Mitigating Treatment Leakage in Text-Based Causal Inference: Distillation and Sensitivity Analysis

Text-based causal inference increasingly employs textual data as proxies for unobserved confounders, yet this approach introduces a previously undertheorized source of bias: treatment leakage. Treatment leakage occurs when text intended to capture confounding information also contains signals predictive of treatment status, thereby inducing post-treatment bias in causal estimates. Critically, this problem can arise even when documents precede treatment assignment, as authors may employ future-referencing language that anticipates subsequent interventions. Despite growing recognition of this issue, no systematic methods exist for identifying and mitigating treatment leakage in text-as-confounder applications. This paper addresses this gap through three contributions. First, we provide formal statistical and set-theoretic definitions of treatment leakage that clarify when and why bias occurs. Second, we propose four text distillation methods -- similarity-based passage removal, distant supervision classification, salient feature removal, and iterative nullspace projection -- designed to eliminate treatment-predictive content while preserving confounder information. Third, we validate these methods through simulations using synthetic text and an empirical application examining International Monetary Fund structural adjustment programs and child mortality. Our findings indicate that moderate distillation optimally balances bias reduction against confounder retention, whereas overly stringent approaches degrade estimate precision.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 30, 2025

AIMI: Leveraging Future Knowledge and Personalization in Sparse Event Forecasting for Treatment Adherence

Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 20, 2025 2

Offline Guarded Safe Reinforcement Learning for Medical Treatment Optimization Strategies

When applying offline reinforcement learning (RL) in healthcare scenarios, the out-of-distribution (OOD) issues pose significant risks, as inappropriate generalization beyond clinical expertise can result in potentially harmful recommendations. While existing methods like conservative Q-learning (CQL) attempt to address the OOD issue, their effectiveness is limited by only constraining action selection by suppressing uncertain actions. This action-only regularization imitates clinician actions that prioritize short-term rewards, but it fails to regulate downstream state trajectories, thereby limiting the discovery of improved long-term treatment strategies. To safely improve policy beyond clinician recommendations while ensuring that state-action trajectories remain in-distribution, we propose Offline Guarded Safe Reinforcement Learning (OGSRL), a theoretically grounded model-based offline RL framework. OGSRL introduces a novel dual constraint mechanism for improving policy with reliability and safety. First, the OOD guardian is established to specify clinically validated regions for safe policy exploration. By constraining optimization within these regions, it enables the reliable exploration of treatment strategies that outperform clinician behavior by leveraging the full patient state history, without drifting into unsupported state-action trajectories. Second, we introduce a safety cost constraint that encodes medical knowledge about physiological safety boundaries, providing domain-specific safeguards even in areas where training data might contain potentially unsafe interventions. Notably, we provide theoretical guarantees on safety and near-optimality: policies that satisfy these constraints remain in safe and reliable regions and achieve performance close to the best possible policy supported by the data.

  • 6 authors
·
May 22, 2025

Fidelity and Privacy of Synthetic Medical Data

The digitization of medical records ushered in a new era of big data to clinical science, and with it the possibility that data could be shared, to multiply insights beyond what investigators could abstract from paper records. The need to share individual-level medical data to accelerate innovation in precision medicine continues to grow, and has never been more urgent, as scientists grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, enthusiasm for the use of big data has been tempered by a fully appropriate concern for patient autonomy and privacy. That is, the ability to extract private or confidential information about an individual, in practice, renders it difficult to share data, since significant infrastructure and data governance must be established before data can be shared. Although HIPAA provided de-identification as an approved mechanism for data sharing, linkage attacks were identified as a major vulnerability. A variety of mechanisms have been established to avoid leaking private information, such as field suppression or abstraction, strictly limiting the amount of information that can be shared, or employing mathematical techniques such as differential privacy. Another approach, which we focus on here, is creating synthetic data that mimics the underlying data. For synthetic data to be a useful mechanism in support of medical innovation and a proxy for real-world evidence, one must demonstrate two properties of the synthetic dataset: (1) any analysis on the real data must be matched by analysis of the synthetic data (statistical fidelity) and (2) the synthetic data must preserve privacy, with minimal risk of re-identification (privacy guarantee). In this paper we propose a framework for quantifying the statistical fidelity and privacy preservation properties of synthetic datasets and demonstrate these metrics for synthetic data generated by Syntegra technology.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 18, 2021

Artificial Intelligence in Mental Health and Well-Being: Evolution, Current Applications, Future Challenges, and Emerging Evidence

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a broad field that is upturning mental health care in many ways, from addressing anxiety, depression, and stress to increasing access, personalization of treatment, and real-time monitoring that enhances patient outcomes. The current paper discusses the evolution, present application, and future challenges in the field of AI for mental health and well-being. From the early chatbot models, such as ELIZA, to modern machine learning systems, the integration of AI in mental health has grown rapidly to augment traditional treatment and open innovative solutions. AI-driven tools provide continuous support, offering personalized interventions and addressing issues such as treatment access and patient stigma. AI also enables early diagnosis through the analysis of complex datasets, including speech patterns and social media behavior, to detect early signs of conditions like depression and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD). Ethical challenges persist, however, most notably around privacy, data security, and algorithmic bias. With AI at the core of mental health care, there is a dire need to develop strong ethical frameworks that ensure patient rights are protected, access is equitable, and transparency is maintained in AI applications. Going forward, the role of AI in mental health will continue to evolve, and continued research and policy development will be needed to meet the diverse needs of patients while mitigating associated risks.

  • 1 authors
·
Dec 13, 2024

Selective Machine Learning of the Average Treatment Effect with an Invalid Instrumental Variable

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct effect on the outcome which is not mediated by the exposure in view. In the health and social sciences, such an assumption is often not credible. To address this concern, we consider identification conditions of the population average treatment effect with an invalid instrumental variable which does not satisfy the exclusion restriction, and derive the efficient influence function targeting the identifying functional under a nonparametric observed data model. We propose a novel multiply robust locally efficient estimator of the average treatment effect that is consistent in the union of multiple parametric nuisance models, as well as a multiply debiased machine learning estimator for which the nuisance parameters are estimated using generic machine learning methods, that effectively exploit various forms of linear or nonlinear structured sparsity in the nuisance parameter space. When one cannot be confident that any of these machine learners is consistent at sufficiently fast rates to ensure n-consistency for the average treatment effect, we introduce a new criteria for selective machine learning which leverages the multiple robustness property in order to ensure small bias. The proposed methods are illustrated through extensive simulations and a data analysis evaluating the causal effect of 401(k) participation on savings.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 27, 2019