Daily Papers

We present WeakSTIL, an interpretable two-stage weak label deep learning pipeline for scoring the percentage of stromal tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (sTIL%) in H&E-stained whole-slide images (WSIs) of breast cancer tissue. The sTIL% score is a prognostic and predictive biomarker for many solid tumor types. However, due to the high labeling efforts and high intra- and interobserver variability within and between expert annotators, this biomarker is currently not used in routine clinical decision making. WeakSTIL compresses tiles of a WSI using a feature extractor pre-trained with self-supervised learning on unlabeled histopathology data and learns to predict precise sTIL% scores for each tile in the tumor bed by using a multiple instance learning regressor that only requires a weak WSI-level label. By requiring only a weak label, we overcome the large annotation efforts required to train currently existing TIL detection methods. We show that WeakSTIL is at least as good as other TIL detection methods when predicting the WSI-level sTIL% score, reaching a coefficient of determination of 0.45pm0.15 when compared to scores generated by an expert pathologist, and an AUC of 0.89pm0.05 when treating it as the clinically interesting sTIL-high vs sTIL-low classification task. Additionally, we show that the intermediate tile-level predictions of WeakSTIL are highly interpretable, which suggests that WeakSTIL pays attention to latent features related to the number of TILs and the tissue type. In the future, WeakSTIL may be used to provide consistent and interpretable sTIL% predictions to stratify breast cancer patients into targeted therapy arms.

Single image depth estimation is a foundational task in computer vision and generative modeling. However, prevailing depth estimation models grapple with accommodating the increasing resolutions commonplace in today's consumer cameras and devices. Existing high-resolution strategies show promise, but they often face limitations, ranging from error propagation to the loss of high-frequency details. We present PatchFusion, a novel tile-based framework with three key components to improve the current state of the art: (1) A patch-wise fusion network that fuses a globally-consistent coarse prediction with finer, inconsistent tiled predictions via high-level feature guidance, (2) A Global-to-Local (G2L) module that adds vital context to the fusion network, discarding the need for patch selection heuristics, and (3) A Consistency-Aware Training (CAT) and Inference (CAI) approach, emphasizing patch overlap consistency and thereby eradicating the necessity for post-processing. Experiments on UnrealStereo4K, MVS-Synth, and Middleburry 2014 demonstrate that our framework can generate high-resolution depth maps with intricate details. PatchFusion is independent of the base model for depth estimation. Notably, our framework built on top of SOTA ZoeDepth brings improvements for a total of 17.3% and 29.4% in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) on UnrealStereo4K and MVS-Synth, respectively.

Survival prediction using whole slide images (WSIs) can be formulated as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. However, existing MIL methods often fail to explicitly capture pathological heterogeneity within WSIs, both globally -- through long-tailed morphological distributions, and locally through -- tile-level prediction uncertainty. Optimal transport (OT) provides a principled way of modeling such heterogeneity by incorporating marginal distribution constraints. Building on this insight, we propose OTSurv, a novel MIL framework from an optimal transport perspective. Specifically, OTSurv formulates survival predictions as a heterogeneity-aware OT problem with two constraints: (1) global long-tail constraint that models prior morphological distributions to avert both mode collapse and excessive uniformity by regulating transport mass allocation, and (2) local uncertainty-aware constraint that prioritizes high-confidence patches while suppressing noise by progressively raising the total transport mass. We then recast the initial OT problem, augmented by these constraints, into an unbalanced OT formulation that can be solved with an efficient, hardware-friendly matrix scaling algorithm. Empirically, OTSurv sets new state-of-the-art results across six popular benchmarks, achieving an absolute 3.6% improvement in average C-index. In addition, OTSurv achieves statistical significance in log-rank tests and offers high interpretability, making it a powerful tool for survival prediction in digital pathology. Our codes are available at https://github.com/Y-Research-SBU/OTSurv.

The use of artificial intelligence to enable precision medicine and decision support systems through the analysis of pathology images has the potential to revolutionize the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. Such applications will depend on models' abilities to capture the diverse patterns observed in pathology images. To address this challenge, we present Virchow, a foundation model for computational pathology. Using self-supervised learning empowered by the DINOv2 algorithm, Virchow is a vision transformer model with 632 million parameters trained on 1.5 million hematoxylin and eosin stained whole slide images from diverse tissue and specimen types, which is orders of magnitude more data than previous works. The Virchow model enables the development of a pan-cancer detection system with 0.949 overall specimen-level AUC across 17 different cancer types, while also achieving 0.937 AUC on 7 rare cancer types. The Virchow model sets the state-of-the-art on the internal and external image tile level benchmarks and slide level biomarker prediction tasks. The gains in performance highlight the importance of training on massive pathology image datasets, suggesting scaling up the data and network architecture can improve the accuracy for many high-impact computational pathology applications where limited amounts of training data are available.

Pathology is the study of microscopic inspection of tissue, and a pathology diagnosis is often the medical gold standard to diagnose disease. Pathology images provide a unique challenge for computer-vision-based analysis: a single pathology Whole Slide Image (WSI) is gigapixel-sized and often contains hundreds of thousands to millions of objects of interest across multiple resolutions. In this work, we propose PathoLogy Universal TransfOrmer (PLUTO): a light-weight pathology FM that is pre-trained on a diverse dataset of 195 million image tiles collected from multiple sites and extracts meaningful representations across multiple WSI scales that enable a large variety of downstream pathology tasks. In particular, we design task-specific adaptation heads that utilize PLUTO's output embeddings for tasks which span pathology scales ranging from subcellular to slide-scale, including instance segmentation, tile classification, and slide-level prediction. We compare PLUTO's performance to other state-of-the-art methods on a diverse set of external and internal benchmarks covering multiple biologically relevant tasks, tissue types, resolutions, stains, and scanners. We find that PLUTO matches or outperforms existing task-specific baselines and pathology-specific foundation models, some of which use orders-of-magnitude larger datasets and model sizes when compared to PLUTO. Our findings present a path towards a universal embedding to power pathology image analysis, and motivate further exploration around pathology foundation models in terms of data diversity, architectural improvements, sample efficiency, and practical deployability in real-world applications.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at tasks like language processing, strategy games, and reasoning but struggle to build generalizable internal representations essential for adaptive decision-making in agents. For agents to effectively navigate complex environments, they must construct reliable world models. While LLMs perform well on specific benchmarks, they often fail to generalize, leading to brittle representations that limit their real-world effectiveness. Understanding how LLMs build internal world models is key to developing agents capable of consistent, adaptive behavior across tasks. We analyze OthelloGPT, a GPT-based model trained on Othello gameplay, as a controlled testbed for studying representation learning. Despite being trained solely on next-token prediction with random valid moves, OthelloGPT shows meaningful layer-wise progression in understanding board state and gameplay. Early layers capture static attributes like board edges, while deeper layers reflect dynamic tile changes. To interpret these representations, we compare Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) with linear probes, finding that SAEs offer more robust, disentangled insights into compositional features, whereas linear probes mainly detect features useful for classification. We use SAEs to decode features related to tile color and tile stability, a previously unexamined feature that reflects complex gameplay concepts like board control and long-term planning. We study the progression of linear probe accuracy and tile color using both SAE's and linear probes to compare their effectiveness at capturing what the model is learning. Although we begin with a smaller language model, OthelloGPT, this study establishes a framework for understanding the internal representations learned by GPT models, transformers, and LLMs more broadly. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/ALT-JS/OthelloSAE.

We address 2D floorplan reconstruction from 3D scans. Existing approaches typically employ heuristically designed multi-stage pipelines. Instead, we formulate floorplan reconstruction as a single-stage structured prediction task: find a variable-size set of polygons, which in turn are variable-length sequences of ordered vertices. To solve it we develop a novel Transformer architecture that generates polygons of multiple rooms in parallel, in a holistic manner without hand-crafted intermediate stages. The model features two-level queries for polygons and corners, and includes polygon matching to make the network end-to-end trainable. Our method achieves a new state-of-the-art for two challenging datasets, Structured3D and SceneCAD, along with significantly faster inference than previous methods. Moreover, it can readily be extended to predict additional information, i.e., semantic room types and architectural elements like doors and windows. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/ywyue/RoomFormer.

Geospatial analysis lacks methods like the word vector representations and pre-trained networks that significantly boost performance across a wide range of natural language and computer vision tasks. To fill this gap, we introduce Tile2Vec, an unsupervised representation learning algorithm that extends the distributional hypothesis from natural language -- words appearing in similar contexts tend to have similar meanings -- to spatially distributed data. We demonstrate empirically that Tile2Vec learns semantically meaningful representations on three datasets. Our learned representations significantly improve performance in downstream classification tasks and, similar to word vectors, visual analogies can be obtained via simple arithmetic in the latent space.

Deep learning has enabled algorithms to generate realistic images. However, accurately predicting long video sequences requires understanding long-term dependencies and remains an open challenge. While existing video prediction models succeed at generating sharp images, they tend to fail at accurately predicting far into the future. We introduce the Clockwork VAE (CW-VAE), a video prediction model that leverages a hierarchy of latent sequences, where higher levels tick at slower intervals. We demonstrate the benefits of both hierarchical latents and temporal abstraction on 4 diverse video prediction datasets with sequences of up to 1000 frames, where CW-VAE outperforms top video prediction models. Additionally, we propose a Minecraft benchmark for long-term video prediction. We conduct several experiments to gain insights into CW-VAE and confirm that slower levels learn to represent objects that change more slowly in the video, and faster levels learn to represent faster objects.

Floorplans provide a compact representation of the building's structure, revealing not only layout information but also detailed semantics such as the locations of windows and doors. However, contemporary floorplan localization techniques mostly focus on matching depth-based structural cues, ignoring the rich semantics communicated within floorplans. In this work, we introduce a semantic-aware localization framework that jointly estimates depth and semantic rays, consolidating over both for predicting a structural-semantic probability volume. Our probability volume is constructed in a coarse-to-fine manner: We first sample a small set of rays to obtain an initial low-resolution probability volume. We then refine these probabilities by performing a denser sampling only in high-probability regions and process the refined values for predicting a 2D location and orientation angle. We conduct an evaluation on two standard floorplan localization benchmarks. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving significant improvements in recall metrics compared to prior works. Moreover, we show that our framework can easily incorporate additional metadata such as room labels, enabling additional gains in both accuracy and efficiency.

Temporal difference (TD) learning and its variants, such as multistage TD (MS-TD) learning and temporal coherence (TC) learning, have been successfully applied to 2048. These methods rely on the stochasticity of the environment of 2048 for exploration. In this paper, we propose to employ optimistic initialization (OI) to encourage exploration for 2048, and empirically show that the learning quality is significantly improved. This approach optimistically initializes the feature weights to very large values. Since weights tend to be reduced once the states are visited, agents tend to explore those states which are unvisited or visited few times. Our experiments show that both TD and TC learning with OI significantly improve the performance. As a result, the network size required to achieve the same performance is significantly reduced. With additional tunings such as expectimax search, multistage learning, and tile-downgrading technique, our design achieves the state-of-the-art performance, namely an average score of 625 377 and a rate of 72% reaching 32768 tiles. In addition, for sufficiently large tests, 65536 tiles are reached at a rate of 0.02%.

We address the challenge of generating 3D worlds from textual descriptions. We propose SynCity, a training- and optimization-free approach, which leverages the geometric precision of pre-trained 3D generative models and the artistic versatility of 2D image generators to create large, high-quality 3D spaces. While most 3D generative models are object-centric and cannot generate large-scale worlds, we show how 3D and 2D generators can be combined to generate ever-expanding scenes. Through a tile-based approach, we allow fine-grained control over the layout and the appearance of scenes. The world is generated tile-by-tile, and each new tile is generated within its world-context and then fused with the scene. SynCity generates compelling and immersive scenes that are rich in detail and diversity.

Geometric models like DUSt3R have shown great advances in understanding the geometry of a scene from pairs of photos. However, they fail when the inputs are from vastly different viewpoints (e.g., aerial vs. ground) or modalities (e.g., photos vs. abstract drawings) compared to what was observed during training. This paper addresses a challenging version of this problem: predicting correspondences between ground-level photos and floor plans. Current datasets for joint photo--floor plan reasoning are limited, either lacking in varying modalities (VIGOR) or lacking in correspondences (WAFFLE). To address these limitations, we introduce a new dataset, C3, created by first reconstructing a number of scenes in 3D from Internet photo collections via structure-from-motion, then manually registering the reconstructions to floor plans gathered from the Internet, from which we can derive correspondence between images and floor plans. C3 contains 90K paired floor plans and photos across 597 scenes with 153M pixel-level correspondences and 85K camera poses. We find that state-of-the-art correspondence models struggle on this task. By training on our new data, we can improve on the best performing method by 34% in RMSE. We also identify open challenges in cross-modal geometric reasoning that our dataset aims to help address.

The ability to predict future outcomes given control actions is fundamental for physical reasoning. However, such predictive models, often called world models, have proven challenging to learn and are typically developed for task-specific solutions with online policy learning. We argue that the true potential of world models lies in their ability to reason and plan across diverse problems using only passive data. Concretely, we require world models to have the following three properties: 1) be trainable on offline, pre-collected trajectories, 2) support test-time behavior optimization, and 3) facilitate task-agnostic reasoning. To realize this, we present DINO World Model (DINO-WM), a new method to model visual dynamics without reconstructing the visual world. DINO-WM leverages spatial patch features pre-trained with DINOv2, enabling it to learn from offline behavioral trajectories by predicting future patch features. This design allows DINO-WM to achieve observational goals through action sequence optimization, facilitating task-agnostic behavior planning by treating desired goal patch features as prediction targets. We evaluate DINO-WM across various domains, including maze navigation, tabletop pushing, and particle manipulation. Our experiments demonstrate that DINO-WM can generate zero-shot behavioral solutions at test time without relying on expert demonstrations, reward modeling, or pre-learned inverse models. Notably, DINO-WM exhibits strong generalization capabilities compared to prior state-of-the-art work, adapting to diverse task families such as arbitrarily configured mazes, push manipulation with varied object shapes, and multi-particle scenarios.

This paper presents a new approach to recognize elements in floor plan layouts. Besides walls and rooms, we aim to recognize diverse floor plan elements, such as doors, windows and different types of rooms, in the floor layouts. To this end, we model a hierarchy of floor plan elements and design a deep multi-task neural network with two tasks: one to learn to predict room-boundary elements, and the other to predict rooms with types. More importantly, we formulate the room-boundary-guided attention mechanism in our spatial contextual module to carefully take room-boundary features into account to enhance the room-type predictions. Furthermore, we design a cross-and-within-task weighted loss to balance the multi-label tasks and prepare two new datasets for floor plan recognition. Experimental results demonstrate the superiority and effectiveness of our network over the state-of-the-art methods.

Converting raster floorplans into engineering-grade vector graphics is challenging due to complex topology and strict geometric constraints. To address this, we present FloorplanVLM, a unified framework that reformulates floorplan vectorization as an image-conditioned sequence modeling task. Unlike pixel-based methods that rely on fragile heuristics or query-based transformers that generate fragmented rooms, our model directly outputs structured JSON sequences representing the global topology. This 'pixels-to-sequence' paradigm enables the precise and holistic constraint satisfaction of complex geometries, such as slanted walls and curved arcs. To support this data-hungry approach, we introduce a scalable data engine: we construct a large-scale dataset (Floorplan-2M) and a high-fidelity subset (Floorplan-HQ-300K) to balance geometric diversity and pixel-level precision. We then employ a progressive training strategy, using Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) for structural grounding and quality annealing, followed by Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) for strict geometric alignment. To standardize evaluation on complex layouts, we establish and open-source FPBench-2K. Evaluated on this rigorous benchmark, FloorplanVLM demonstrates exceptional structural validity, achieving 92.52% external-wall IoU and robust generalization across non-Manhattan architectures.

We consider the problem of forecasting motion from a single image, i.e., predicting how objects in the world are likely to move, without the ability to observe other parameters such as the object velocities or the forces applied to them. We formulate this task as conditional generation of dense trajectory grids with a model that closely follows the architecture of modern video generators but outputs motion trajectories instead of pixels. This approach captures scene-wide dynamics and uncertainty, yielding more accurate and diverse predictions than prior regressors and generators. We extensively evaluate our method on simulated data, demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream applications such as robotics, and show promising accuracy on real-world intuitive physics datasets. Although recent state-of-the-art video generators are often regarded as world models, we show that they struggle with forecasting motion from a single image, even in simple physical scenarios such as falling blocks or mechanical object interactions, despite fine-tuning on such data. We show that this limitation arises from the overhead of generating pixels rather than directly modeling motion.

Procedural Content Generation (PCG) algorithms provide a technique to generate complex and diverse environments in an automated way. However, while generating content with PCG methods is often straightforward, generating meaningful content that reflects specific intentions and constraints remains challenging. Furthermore, many PCG algorithms lack the ability to generate content in an open-ended manner. Recently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown to be incredibly effective in many diverse domains. These trained LLMs can be fine-tuned, re-using information and accelerating training for new tasks. In this work, we introduce MarioGPT, a fine-tuned GPT2 model trained to generate tile-based game levels, in our case Super Mario Bros levels. We show that MarioGPT can not only generate diverse levels, but can be text-prompted for controllable level generation, addressing one of the key challenges of current PCG techniques. As far as we know, MarioGPT is the first text-to-level model. We also combine MarioGPT with novelty search, enabling it to generate diverse levels with varying play-style dynamics (i.e. player paths). This combination allows for the open-ended generation of an increasingly diverse range of content.

In this paper we propose an efficient data-driven solution to self-localization within a floorplan. Floorplan data is readily available, long-term persistent and inherently robust to changes in the visual appearance. Our method does not require retraining per map and location or demand a large database of images of the area of interest. We propose a novel probabilistic model consisting of an observation and a novel temporal filtering module. Operating internally with an efficient ray-based representation, the observation module consists of a single and a multiview module to predict horizontal depth from images and fuses their results to benefit from advantages offered by either methodology. Our method operates on conventional consumer hardware and overcomes a common limitation of competing methods that often demand upright images. Our full system meets real-time requirements, while outperforming the state-of-the-art by a significant margin.

This paper presents two variations of a novel stochastic prediction algorithm that enables mobile robots to accurately and robustly predict the future state of complex dynamic scenes. The proposed algorithm uses a variational autoencoder to predict a range of possible future states of the environment. The algorithm takes full advantage of the motion of the robot itself, the motion of dynamic objects, and the geometry of static objects in the scene to improve prediction accuracy. Three simulated and real-world datasets collected by different robot models are used to demonstrate that the proposed algorithm is able to achieve more accurate and robust prediction performance than other prediction algorithms. Furthermore, a predictive uncertainty-aware planner is proposed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed predictor in simulation and real-world navigation experiments. Implementations are open source at https://github.com/TempleRAIL/SOGMP.

We introduce FloorplanQA, a diagnostic benchmark for evaluating spatial reasoning in large-language models (LLMs). FloorplanQA is grounded in structured representations of indoor scenes, such as (e.g., kitchens, living rooms, bedrooms, bathrooms, and others), encoded symbolically in JSON or XML layouts. The benchmark covers core spatial tasks, including distance measurement, visibility, path finding, and object placement within constrained spaces. Our results across a variety of frontier open-source and commercial LLMs reveal that while models may succeed in shallow queries, they often fail to respect physical constraints, preserve spatial coherence, though they remain mostly robust to small spatial perturbations. FloorplanQA uncovers a blind spot in today's LLMs: inconsistent reasoning about indoor layouts. We hope this benchmark inspires new work on language models that can accurately infer and manipulate spatial and geometric properties in practical settings.

Recent advances in large language models(LLMs) enable compelling story generation, but connecting narrative text to playable visual environments remains an open challenge in procedural content generation(PCG). We present a lightweight pipeline that transforms short narrative prompts into a sequence of 2D tile-based game scenes, reflecting the temporal structure of stories. Given an LLM-generated narrative, our system identifies three key time frames, extracts spatial predicates in the form of "Object-Relation-Object" triples, and retrieves visual assets using affordance-aware semantic embeddings from the GameTileNet dataset. A layered terrain is generated using Cellular Automata, and objects are placed using spatial rules grounded in the predicate structure. We evaluated our system in ten diverse stories, analyzing tile-object matching, affordance-layer alignment, and spatial constraint satisfaction across frames. This prototype offers a scalable approach to narrative-driven scene generation and lays the foundation for future work on multi-frame continuity, symbolic tracking, and multi-agent coordination in story-centered PCG.

Buildings are a central feature of human culture and are increasingly being analyzed with computational methods. However, recent works on computational building understanding have largely focused on natural imagery of buildings, neglecting the fundamental element defining a building's structure -- its floorplan. Conversely, existing works on floorplan understanding are extremely limited in scope, often focusing on floorplans of a single semantic category and region (e.g. floorplans of apartments from a single country). In this work, we introduce WAFFLE, a novel multimodal floorplan understanding dataset of nearly 20K floorplan images and metadata curated from Internet data spanning diverse building types, locations, and data formats. By using a large language model and multimodal foundation models, we curate and extract semantic information from these images and their accompanying noisy metadata. We show that WAFFLE enables progress on new building understanding tasks, both discriminative and generative, which were not feasible using prior datasets. We will publicly release WAFFLE along with our code and trained models, providing the research community with a new foundation for learning the semantics of buildings.

Understanding how machine learning models respond to distributional shifts is a key research challenge. Mazes serve as an excellent testbed due to varied generation algorithms offering a nuanced platform to simulate both subtle and pronounced distributional shifts. To enable systematic investigations of model behavior on out-of-distribution data, we present maze-dataset, a comprehensive library for generating, processing, and visualizing datasets consisting of maze-solving tasks. With this library, researchers can easily create datasets, having extensive control over the generation algorithm used, the parameters fed to the algorithm of choice, and the filters that generated mazes must satisfy. Furthermore, it supports multiple output formats, including rasterized and text-based, catering to convolutional neural networks and autoregressive transformer models. These formats, along with tools for visualizing and converting between them, ensure versatility and adaptability in research applications.

World models serve as essential building blocks toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), enabling intelligent agents to predict future states and plan actions by simulating complex physical interactions. However, existing interactive models primarily predict visual observations, thereby neglecting crucial hidden states like geometric structures and spatial coherence. This leads to rapid error accumulation and temporal inconsistency. To address these limitations, we introduce DeepVerse, a novel 4D interactive world model explicitly incorporating geometric predictions from previous timesteps into current predictions conditioned on actions. Experiments demonstrate that by incorporating explicit geometric constraints, DeepVerse captures richer spatio-temporal relationships and underlying physical dynamics. This capability significantly reduces drift and enhances temporal consistency, enabling the model to reliably generate extended future sequences and achieve substantial improvements in prediction accuracy, visual realism, and scene rationality. Furthermore, our method provides an effective solution for geometry-aware memory retrieval, effectively preserving long-term spatial consistency. We validate the effectiveness of DeepVerse across diverse scenarios, establishing its capacity for high-fidelity, long-horizon predictions grounded in geometry-aware dynamics.

Energy-based predictive world models provide a powerful approach for multi-step visual planning by reasoning over latent energy landscapes rather than generating pixels. However, existing approaches face two major challenges: (i) their latent representations are typically learned in Euclidean space, neglecting the underlying geometric and hierarchical structure among states, and (ii) they struggle with long-horizon prediction, which leads to rapid degradation across extended rollouts. To address these challenges, we introduce GeoWorld, a geometric world model that preserves geometric structure and hierarchical relations through a Hyperbolic JEPA, which maps latent representations from Euclidean space onto hyperbolic manifolds. We further introduce Geometric Reinforcement Learning for energy-based optimization, enabling stable multi-step planning in hyperbolic latent space. Extensive experiments on CrossTask and COIN demonstrate around 3% SR improvement in 3-step planning and 2% SR improvement in 4-step planning compared to the state-of-the-art V-JEPA 2. Project website: https://steve-zeyu-zhang.github.io/GeoWorld.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

The challenge of mapping AI architectures to GPU hardware is creating a critical bottleneck in AI progress. Despite substantial efforts, hand-written custom kernels fail to meet their theoretical performance thresholds, even on well-established operations like linear attention. The diverse hardware capabilities of GPUs might suggest that we need a wide variety of techniques to achieve high performance. However, our work explores whether a small number of key abstractions can drastically simplify the process. We present ThunderKittens (TK), a framework for writing performant AI kernels while remaining easy to use and maintain. Our abstractions map to the three levels of the GPU hierarchy: (1) at the warp-level, we provide 16x16 matrix tiles as basic data structures and PyTorch-like parallel compute operations over tiles, (2) at the thread-block level, we provide a template for overlapping asynchronous operations across parallel warps, and (3) at the grid-level, we provide support to help hide the block launch and tear-down, and memory costs. We show the value of TK by providing kernels that match or outperform prior kernels for a range of AI operations. We match CuBLAS and FlashAttention-3 on GEMM and attention inference performance and outperform the strongest baselines by 10-40% on attention backwards, 8times on state space models, and 14times on linear attention.

We present a new distribution-free conformal prediction algorithm for sequential data (e.g., time series), called the sequential predictive conformal inference (SPCI). We specifically account for the nature that time series data are non-exchangeable, and thus many existing conformal prediction algorithms are not applicable. The main idea is to adaptively re-estimate the conditional quantile of non-conformity scores (e.g., prediction residuals), upon exploiting the temporal dependence among them. More precisely, we cast the problem of conformal prediction interval as predicting the quantile of a future residual, given a user-specified point prediction algorithm. Theoretically, we establish asymptotic valid conditional coverage upon extending consistency analyses in quantile regression. Using simulation and real-data experiments, we demonstrate a significant reduction in interval width of SPCI compared to other existing methods under the desired empirical coverage.

Natural disasters are increasing in frequency and severity, causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage annually and posing growing threats to infrastructure and human livelihoods. Accurate data on roofing materials is critical for modeling building vulnerability to natural hazards such as earthquakes, floods, wildfires, and hurricanes, yet such data remain unavailable. To address this gap, we introduce RoofNet, the largest and most geographically diverse novel multimodal dataset to date, comprising over 51,500 samples from 184 geographically diverse sites pairing high-resolution Earth Observation (EO) imagery with curated text annotations for global roof material classification. RoofNet includes geographically diverse satellite imagery labeled with 14 key roofing types -- such as asphalt shingles, clay tiles, and metal sheets -- and is designed to enhance the fidelity of global exposure datasets through vision-language modeling (VLM). We sample EO tiles from climatically and architecturally distinct regions to construct a representative dataset. A subset of 6,000 images was annotated in collaboration with domain experts to fine-tune a VLM. We used geographic- and material-aware prompt tuning to enhance class separability. The fine-tuned model was then applied to the remaining EO tiles, with predictions refined through rule-based and human-in-the-loop verification. In addition to material labels, RoofNet provides rich metadata including roof shape, footprint area, solar panel presence, and indicators of mixed roofing materials (e.g., HVAC systems). RoofNet supports scalable, AI-driven risk assessment and serves as a downstream benchmark for evaluating model generalization across regions -- offering actionable insights for insurance underwriting, disaster preparedness, and infrastructure policy planning.

Accurately anticipating how complex, diverse scenes will evolve requires models that represent uncertainty, simulate along extended interaction chains, and efficiently explore many plausible futures. Yet most existing approaches rely on dense video or latent-space prediction, expending substantial capacity on dense appearance rather than on the underlying sparse trajectories of points in the scene. This makes large-scale exploration of future hypotheses costly and limits performance when long-horizon, multi-modal motion is essential. We address this by formulating the prediction of open-set future scene dynamics as step-wise inference over sparse point trajectories. Our autoregressive diffusion model advances these trajectories through short, locally predictable transitions, explicitly modeling the growth of uncertainty over time. This dynamics-centric representation enables fast rollout of thousands of diverse futures from a single image, optionally guided by initial constraints on motion, while maintaining physical plausibility and long-range coherence. We further introduce OWM, a benchmark for open-set motion prediction based on diverse in-the-wild videos, to evaluate accuracy and variability of predicted trajectory distributions under real-world uncertainty. Our method matches or surpasses dense simulators in predictive accuracy while achieving orders-of-magnitude higher sampling speed, making open-set future prediction both scalable and practical. Project page: http://compvis.github.io/myriad.

World models that forecast scene evolution by generating future video frames devote the bulk of their capacity to photometric details, yet the resulting predictions often remain geometrically inconsistent. We present VGGT-World, a geometry world model that side-steps video generation entirely and instead forecasts the temporal evolution of frozen geometry-foundation-model (GFM) features. Concretely, we repurpose the latent tokens of a frozen VGGT as the world state and train a lightweight temporal flow transformer to autoregressively predict their future trajectory. Two technical challenges arise in this high-dimensional (d=1024) feature space: (i) standard velocity-prediction flow matching collapses, and (ii) autoregressive rollout suffers from compounding exposure bias. We address the first with a clean-target (z-prediction) parameterization that yields a substantially higher signal-to-noise ratio, and the second with a two-stage latent flow-forcing curriculum that progressively conditions the model on its own partially denoised rollouts. Experiments on KITTI, Cityscapes, and TartanAir demonstrate that VGGT-World significantly outperforms the strongest baselines in depth forecasting while running 3.6-5 times faster with only 0.43B trainable parameters, establishing frozen GFM features as an effective and efficient predictive state for 3D world modeling.

Future prediction is a complex task for LLM agents, requiring a high level of analytical thinking, information gathering, contextual understanding, and decision-making under uncertainty. Agents must not only gather and interpret vast amounts of dynamic information but also integrate diverse data sources, weigh uncertainties, and adapt predictions based on emerging trends, just as human experts do in fields like politics, economics, and finance. Despite its importance, no large-scale benchmark exists for evaluating agents on future prediction, largely due to challenges in handling real-time updates and retrieving timely, accurate answers. To address this, we introduce FutureX, a dynamic and live evaluation benchmark specifically designed for LLM agents performing future prediction tasks. FutureX is the largest and most diverse live benchmark for future prediction, supporting real-time daily updates and eliminating data contamination through an automated pipeline for question gathering and answer collection. We evaluate 25 LLM/agent models, including those with reasoning, search capabilities, and integration of external tools such as the open-source Deep Research Agent and closed-source Deep Research models. This comprehensive evaluation assesses agents' adaptive reasoning and performance in dynamic environments. Additionally, we provide in-depth analyses of agents' failure modes and performance pitfalls in future-oriented tasks, including the vulnerability to fake web pages and the temporal validity. Our goal is to establish a dynamic, contamination-free evaluation standard that drives the development of LLM agents capable of performing at the level of professional human analysts in complex reasoning and predictive thinking.

Models that can simulate how environments change in response to actions can be used by agents to plan and act efficiently. We improve on previous environment simulators from high-dimensional pixel observations by introducing recurrent neural networks that are able to make temporally and spatially coherent predictions for hundreds of time-steps into the future. We present an in-depth analysis of the factors affecting performance, providing the most extensive attempt to advance the understanding of the properties of these models. We address the issue of computationally inefficiency with a model that does not need to generate a high-dimensional image at each time-step. We show that our approach can be used to improve exploration and is adaptable to many diverse environments, namely 10 Atari games, a 3D car racing environment, and complex 3D mazes.

With the advent of AI and computer vision techniques, the quest for automated and efficient floor plan designs has gained momentum. This paper presents a novel approach using skip-connected neural networks integrated with layout graphs. The skip-connected layers capture multi-scale floor plan information, and the encoder-decoder networks with GNN facilitate pixel-level probability-based generation. Validated on the MSD dataset, our approach achieved a 93.9 mIoU score in the 1st CVAAD workshop challenge. Code and pre-trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/yuntaeJ/SkipNet-FloorPlanGe.

Current 3D layout estimation models are primarily trained on synthetic datasets containing simple single room or single floor environments. As a consequence, they cannot natively handle large multi floor buildings and require scenes to be split into individual floors before processing, which removes global spatial context that is essential for reasoning about structures such as staircases that connect multiple levels. In this work, we introduce HouseLayout3D, a real world benchmark designed to support progress toward full building scale layout estimation, including multiple floors and architecturally intricate spaces. We also present MultiFloor3D, a simple training free baseline that leverages recent scene understanding methods and already outperforms existing 3D layout estimation models on both our benchmark and prior datasets, highlighting the need for further research in this direction. Data and code are available at: https://houselayout3d.github.io.

The paper presents a novel approach for vector-floorplan generation via a diffusion model, which denoises 2D coordinates of room/door corners with two inference objectives: 1) a single-step noise as the continuous quantity to precisely invert the continuous forward process; and 2) the final 2D coordinate as the discrete quantity to establish geometric incident relationships such as parallelism, orthogonality, and corner-sharing. Our task is graph-conditioned floorplan generation, a common workflow in floorplan design. We represent a floorplan as 1D polygonal loops, each of which corresponds to a room or a door. Our diffusion model employs a Transformer architecture at the core, which controls the attention masks based on the input graph-constraint and directly generates vector-graphics floorplans via a discrete and continuous denoising process. We have evaluated our approach on RPLAN dataset. The proposed approach makes significant improvements in all the metrics against the state-of-the-art with significant margins, while being capable of generating non-Manhattan structures and controlling the exact number of corners per room. A project website with supplementary video and document is here https://aminshabani.github.io/housediffusion.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has made remarkable progress across various domains, with large language models like ChatGPT gaining substantial attention for their human-like text-generation capabilities. Despite these achievements, spatial reasoning remains a significant challenge for these models. Benchmarks like StepGame evaluate AI spatial reasoning, where ChatGPT has shown unsatisfactory performance. However, the presence of template errors in the benchmark has an impact on the evaluation results. Thus there is potential for ChatGPT to perform better if these template errors are addressed, leading to more accurate assessments of its spatial reasoning capabilities. In this study, we refine the StepGame benchmark, providing a more accurate dataset for model evaluation. We analyze GPT's spatial reasoning performance on the rectified benchmark, identifying proficiency in mapping natural language text to spatial relations but limitations in multi-hop reasoning. We provide a flawless solution to the benchmark by combining template-to-relation mapping with logic-based reasoning. This combination demonstrates proficiency in performing qualitative reasoning on StepGame without encountering any errors. We then address the limitations of GPT models in spatial reasoning. We deploy Chain-of-thought and Tree-of-thoughts prompting strategies, offering insights into GPT's ``cognitive process", and achieving remarkable improvements in accuracy. Our investigation not only sheds light on model deficiencies but also proposes enhancements, contributing to the advancement of AI with more robust spatial reasoning capabilities.

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

Tabular data, a fundamental data format in machine learning, is predominantly utilized in competitions and real-world applications. The performance of tabular models--such as gradient boosted decision trees and neural networks--can vary significantly across datasets due to differences in feature distributions and task characteristics. Achieving top performance on each dataset often requires specialized expert knowledge. To address this variability, practitioners often aggregate the predictions of multiple models. However, conventional aggregation strategies typically rely on static combination rules and lack instance-level adaptability. In this work, we propose an in-context ensemble framework for tabular prediction that leverages large language models (LLMs) to perform dynamic, instance-specific integration of external model predictions. Without access to raw tabular features or semantic information, our method constructs a context around each test instance using its nearest neighbors and the predictions from a pool of external models. Within this enriched context, we introduce Chain of Tabular Thoughts (CoT^2), a prompting strategy that guides LLMs through multi-step, interpretable reasoning, making still further progress toward expert-level decision-making. Experimental results show that our method outperforms well-tuned baselines and standard ensemble techniques across a wide range of tabular datasets.

We introduce LegoGPT, the first approach for generating physically stable LEGO brick models from text prompts. To achieve this, we construct a large-scale, physically stable dataset of LEGO designs, along with their associated captions, and train an autoregressive large language model to predict the next brick to add via next-token prediction. To improve the stability of the resulting designs, we employ an efficient validity check and physics-aware rollback during autoregressive inference, which prunes infeasible token predictions using physics laws and assembly constraints. Our experiments show that LegoGPT produces stable, diverse, and aesthetically pleasing LEGO designs that align closely with the input text prompts. We also develop a text-based LEGO texturing method to generate colored and textured designs. We show that our designs can be assembled manually by humans and automatically by robotic arms. We also release our new dataset, StableText2Lego, containing over 47,000 LEGO structures of over 28,000 unique 3D objects accompanied by detailed captions, along with our code and models at the project website: https://avalovelace1.github.io/LegoGPT/.

If generalist robots are to operate in truly unstructured environments, they need to be able to recognize and reason about novel objects and scenarios. Such objects and scenarios might not be present in the robot's own training data. We propose SuSIE, a method that leverages an image-editing diffusion model to act as a high-level planner by proposing intermediate subgoals that a low-level controller can accomplish. Specifically, we finetune InstructPix2Pix on video data, consisting of both human videos and robot rollouts, such that it outputs hypothetical future "subgoal" observations given the robot's current observation and a language command. We also use the robot data to train a low-level goal-conditioned policy to act as the aforementioned low-level controller. We find that the high-level subgoal predictions can utilize Internet-scale pretraining and visual understanding to guide the low-level goal-conditioned policy, achieving significantly better generalization and precision than conventional language-conditioned policies. We achieve state-of-the-art results on the CALVIN benchmark, and also demonstrate robust generalization on real-world manipulation tasks, beating strong baselines that have access to privileged information or that utilize orders of magnitude more compute and training data. The project website can be found at http://rail-berkeley.github.io/susie .

Predicting wildfire risk is a reasoning-intensive spatial problem that requires the integration of visual, climatic, and geographic factors to infer continuous risk maps. Existing methods lack the causal reasoning and multimodal understanding required for reliable generalization. We introduce FireScope-Bench, a large-scale dataset and benchmark that couples Sentinel-2 imagery and climate data with expert-defined risk rasters across the USA, and real wildfire events in Europe for cross-continental evaluation. Building on this dataset, we propose FireScope, a VLM-based reasoning-to-generation framework that learns from both reinforcement learning and visual supervision to predict risk rasters with complementary reasoning traces. When trained in the USA and tested in Europe, FireScope achieves substantial performance gains, while expert feedback and automated analysis confirm that its reasoning traces are faithful and semantically meaningful. Our findings demonstrate that reasoning can ground raster prediction models, improving both generalization and interpretability. To our knowledge, this is the first framework to (1) demonstrate that language-based reasoning can improve generalization in visual generation, (2) propose a high-resolution wildfire risk model that can be applied across continents, and (3) enable systematic studies of robust cross-continental generalization for multimodal fire risk models. We believe that FireScope-Bench has the potential to serve as a foundation for advancing reasoning-driven, interpretable and generalizable spatial modeling. Data and source code will be made publicly available.

Spatial visualization is the mental ability to imagine, transform, and manipulate the spatial characteristics of objects and actions. This intelligence is a part of human cognition where actions and perception are connected on a mental level. To explore whether state-of-the-art Vision-Language Models (VLMs) exhibit this ability, we develop MentalBlackboard, an open-ended spatial visualization benchmark for Paper Folding and Hole Punching tests within two core tasks: prediction and planning. Our prediction experiments reveal that models struggle with applying symmetrical transformations, even when they predict the sequence of unfolding steps correctly. Also, rotations introduce a significant challenge to the physical situational awareness for models. The planning task reveals limitations of models in analyzing symmetrical relationships and in implementing the multi-stage symmetry process, with Claude Opus 4.1 achieving the highest planning score at an accuracy of 10\%. The top-performing model, o3, attains a peak performance of 71.6\% on the generalization task, which does not require spatial visualization but transfers spatial data; however, it achieves only 25\% accuracy on text-based prediction tasks.

When studying unconstrained behaviour and allowing mice to leave their cage to navigate a complex labyrinth, the mice exhibit foraging behaviour in the labyrinth searching for rewards, returning to their home cage now and then, e.g. to drink. Surprisingly, when executing such a ``home run'', the mice do not follow the exact reverse path, in fact, the entry path and home path have very little overlap. Recent work proposed a hierarchical active inference model for navigation, where the low level model makes inferences about hidden states and poses that explain sensory inputs, whereas the high level model makes inferences about moving between locations, effectively building a map of the environment. However, using this ``map'' for planning, only allows the agent to find trajectories that it previously explored, far from the observed mice's behaviour. In this paper, we explore ways of incorporating before-unvisited paths in the planning algorithm, by using the low level generative model to imagine potential, yet undiscovered paths. We demonstrate a proof of concept in a grid-world environment, showing how an agent can accurately predict a new, shorter path in the map leading to its starting point, using a generative model learnt from pixel-based observations.

OpenAI's Sora highlights the potential of video generation for developing world models that adhere to fundamental physical laws. However, the ability of video generation models to discover such laws purely from visual data without human priors can be questioned. A world model learning the true law should give predictions robust to nuances and correctly extrapolate on unseen scenarios. In this work, we evaluate across three key scenarios: in-distribution, out-of-distribution, and combinatorial generalization. We developed a 2D simulation testbed for object movement and collisions to generate videos deterministically governed by one or more classical mechanics laws. This provides an unlimited supply of data for large-scale experimentation and enables quantitative evaluation of whether the generated videos adhere to physical laws. We trained diffusion-based video generation models to predict object movements based on initial frames. Our scaling experiments show perfect generalization within the distribution, measurable scaling behavior for combinatorial generalization, but failure in out-of-distribution scenarios. Further experiments reveal two key insights about the generalization mechanisms of these models: (1) the models fail to abstract general physical rules and instead exhibit "case-based" generalization behavior, i.e., mimicking the closest training example; (2) when generalizing to new cases, models are observed to prioritize different factors when referencing training data: color > size > velocity > shape. Our study suggests that scaling alone is insufficient for video generation models to uncover fundamental physical laws, despite its role in Sora's broader success. See our project page at https://phyworld.github.io

AMD GPUs offer state-of-the-art compute and memory bandwidth; however, peak performance AMD kernels are written in raw assembly. To address the difficulty of mapping AI algorithms to hardware, recent work proposes C++ embedded and PyTorch-inspired domain-specific languages like ThunderKittens (TK) to simplify high performance AI kernel development on NVIDIA hardware. We explore the extent to which such primitives -- for explicit tile-based programming with optimized memory accesses and fine-grained asynchronous execution across workers -- are NVIDIA-specific or general. We provide the first detailed study of the programming primitives that lead to performant AMD AI kernels, and we encapsulate these insights in the HipKittens (HK) programming framework. We find that tile-based abstractions used in prior DSLs generalize to AMD GPUs, however we need to rethink the algorithms that instantiate these abstractions for AMD. We validate the HK primitives across CDNA3 and CDNA4 AMD platforms. In evaluations, HK kernels compete with AMD's hand-optimized assembly kernels for GEMMs and attention, and consistently outperform compiler baselines. Moreover, assembly is difficult to scale to the breadth of AI workloads; reflecting this, in some settings HK outperforms all available kernel baselines by 1.2-2.4times (e.g., d=64 attention, GQA backwards, memory-bound kernels). These findings help pave the way for a single, tile-based software layer for high-performance AI kernels that translates across GPU vendors. HipKittens is released at: https://github.com/HazyResearch/HipKittens.

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

Spatio-temporal predictive learning is a learning paradigm that enables models to learn spatial and temporal patterns by predicting future frames from given past frames in an unsupervised manner. Despite remarkable progress in recent years, a lack of systematic understanding persists due to the diverse settings, complex implementation, and difficult reproducibility. Without standardization, comparisons can be unfair and insights inconclusive. To address this dilemma, we propose OpenSTL, a comprehensive benchmark for spatio-temporal predictive learning that categorizes prevalent approaches into recurrent-based and recurrent-free models. OpenSTL provides a modular and extensible framework implementing various state-of-the-art methods. We conduct standard evaluations on datasets across various domains, including synthetic moving object trajectory, human motion, driving scenes, traffic flow and weather forecasting. Based on our observations, we provide a detailed analysis of how model architecture and dataset properties affect spatio-temporal predictive learning performance. Surprisingly, we find that recurrent-free models achieve a good balance between efficiency and performance than recurrent models. Thus, we further extend the common MetaFormers to boost recurrent-free spatial-temporal predictive learning. We open-source the code and models at https://github.com/chengtan9907/OpenSTL.

Forecasting future events based on evidence of current conditions is an innate skill of human beings, and key for predicting the outcome of any decision making. In artificial vision for example, we would like to predict the next human action before it happens, without observing the future video frames associated to it. Computer vision models for action anticipation are expected to collect the subtle evidence in the preamble of the target actions. In prior studies recurrence modeling often leads to better performance, the strong temporal inference is assumed to be a key element for reasonable prediction. To this end, we propose a unified recurrence modeling for video action anticipation via message passing framework. The information flow in space-time can be described by the interaction between vertices and edges, and the changes of vertices for each incoming frame reflects the underlying dynamics. Our model leverages self-attention as the building blocks for each of the message passing functions. In addition, we introduce different edge learning strategies that can be end-to-end optimized to gain better flexibility for the connectivity between vertices. Our experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms previous works on the large-scale EPIC-Kitchen dataset.

Semantic occupancy has emerged as a powerful representation in world models for its ability to capture rich spatial semantics. However, most existing occupancy world models rely on static and fixed embeddings or grids, which inherently limit the flexibility of perception. Moreover, their ``in-place classification" over grids exhibits a potential misalignment with the dynamic and continuous nature of real scenarios. In this paper, we propose SparseWorld, a novel 4D occupancy world model that is flexible, adaptive, and efficient, powered by sparse and dynamic queries. We propose a Range-Adaptive Perception module, in which learnable queries are modulated by the ego vehicle states and enriched with temporal-spatial associations to enable extended-range perception. To effectively capture the dynamics of the scene, we design a State-Conditioned Forecasting module, which replaces classification-based forecasting with regression-guided formulation, precisely aligning the dynamic queries with the continuity of the 4D environment. In addition, We specifically devise a Temporal-Aware Self-Scheduling training strategy to enable smooth and efficient training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SparseWorld achieves state-of-the-art performance across perception, forecasting, and planning tasks. Comprehensive visualizations and ablation studies further validate the advantages of SparseWorld in terms of flexibility, adaptability, and efficiency.

Anticipating diverse future states is a central challenge in video world modeling. Discriminative world models produce a deterministic prediction that implicitly averages over possible futures, while existing generative world models remain computationally expensive. Recent work demonstrates that predicting the future in the feature space of a vision foundation model (VFM), rather than a latent space optimized for pixel reconstruction, requires significantly fewer world model parameters. However, most such approaches remain discriminative. In this work, we introduce DeltaTok, a tokenizer that encodes the VFM feature difference between consecutive frames into a single continuous "delta" token, and DeltaWorld, a generative world model operating on these tokens to efficiently generate diverse plausible futures. Delta tokens reduce video from a three-dimensional spatio-temporal representation to a one-dimensional temporal sequence, for example yielding a 1,024x token reduction with 512x512 frames. This compact representation enables tractable multi-hypothesis training, where many futures are generated in parallel and only the best is supervised. At inference, this leads to diverse predictions in a single forward pass. Experiments on dense forecasting tasks demonstrate that DeltaWorld forecasts futures that more closely align with real-world outcomes, while having over 35x fewer parameters and using 2,000x fewer FLOPs than existing generative world models. Code and weights: https://deltatok.github.io.

World models have shown great utility in improving the task performance of embodied agents. While prior work largely focuses on pixel-space world models, these approaches face practical limitations in GUI settings, where predicting complex visual elements in future states is often difficult. In this work, we explore an alternative formulation of world modeling for GUI agents, where state transitions are described in natural language rather than predicting raw pixels. First, we introduce MobileWorldBench, a benchmark that evaluates the ability of vision-language models (VLMs) to function as world models for mobile GUI agents. Second, we release MobileWorld, a large-scale dataset consisting of 1.4M samples, that significantly improves the world modeling capabilities of VLMs. Finally, we propose a novel framework that integrates VLM world models into the planning framework of mobile agents, demonstrating that semantic world models can directly benefit mobile agents by improving task success rates. The code and dataset is available at https://github.com/jacklishufan/MobileWorld

Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects.

We propose GroundUp, the first sketch-based ideation tool for 3D city massing of urban areas. We focus on early-stage urban design, where sketching is a common tool and the design starts from balancing building volumes (masses) and open spaces. With Human-Centered AI in mind, we aim to help architects quickly revise their ideas by easily switching between 2D sketches and 3D models, allowing for smoother iteration and sharing of ideas. Inspired by feedback from architects and existing workflows, our system takes as a first input a user sketch of multiple buildings in a top-down view. The user then draws a perspective sketch of the envisioned site. Our method is designed to exploit the complementarity of information in the two sketches and allows users to quickly preview and adjust the inferred 3D shapes. Our model has two main components. First, we propose a novel sketch-to-depth prediction network for perspective sketches that exploits top-down sketch shapes. Second, we use depth cues derived from the perspective sketch as a condition to our diffusion model, which ultimately completes the geometry in a top-down view. Thus, our final 3D geometry is represented as a heightfield, allowing users to construct the city `from the ground up'.

Graphical User Interface (GUI) grounding, the task of mapping natural language instructions to precise screen coordinates, is fundamental to autonomous GUI agents. While existing methods achieve strong performance through extensive supervised training or reinforcement learning with labeled rewards, they remain constrained by the cost and availability of pixel-level annotations. We observe that when models generate multiple predictions for the same GUI element, the spatial overlap patterns reveal implicit confidence signals that can guide more accurate localization. Leveraging this insight, we propose GUI-RC (Region Consistency), a test-time scaling method that constructs spatial voting grids from multiple sampled predictions to identify consensus regions where models show highest agreement. Without any training, GUI-RC improves accuracy by 2-3% across various architectures on ScreenSpot benchmarks. We further introduce GUI-RCPO (Region Consistency Policy Optimization), which transforms these consistency patterns into rewards for test-time reinforcement learning. By computing how well each prediction aligns with the collective consensus, GUI-RCPO enables models to iteratively refine their outputs on unlabeled data during inference. Extensive experiments demonstrate the generality of our approach: GUI-RC boosts Qwen2.5-VL-3B-Instruct from 80.11% to 83.57% on ScreenSpot-v2, while GUI-RCPO further improves it to 85.14% through self-supervised optimization. Our approach reveals the untapped potential of test-time scaling and test-time reinforcement learning for GUI grounding, offering a promising path toward more robust and data-efficient GUI agents.

We introduce ResPlan, a large-scale dataset of 17,000 detailed, structurally rich, and realistic residential floor plans, created to advance spatial AI research. Each plan includes precise annotations of architectural elements (walls, doors, windows, balconies) and functional spaces (such as kitchens, bedrooms, and bathrooms). ResPlan addresses key limitations of existing datasets such as RPLAN (Wu et al., 2019) and MSD (van Engelenburg et al., 2024) by offering enhanced visual fidelity and greater structural diversity, reflecting realistic and non-idealized residential layouts. Designed as a versatile, general-purpose resource, ResPlan supports a wide range of applications including robotics, reinforcement learning, generative AI, virtual and augmented reality, simulations, and game development. Plans are provided in both geometric and graph-based formats, enabling direct integration into simulation engines and fast 3D conversion. A key contribution is an open-source pipeline for geometry cleaning, alignment, and annotation refinement. Additionally, ResPlan includes structured representations of room connectivity, supporting graph-based spatial reasoning tasks. Finally, we present comparative analyses with existing benchmarks and outline several open benchmark tasks enabled by ResPlan. Ultimately, ResPlan offers a significant advance in scale, realism, and usability, providing a robust foundation for developing and benchmarking next-generation spatial intelligence systems.

Recent unified models for joint understanding and generation have significantly advanced visual generation capabilities. However, their focus on conventional tasks like text-to-video generation has left the temporal reasoning potential of unified models largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce Next Scene Prediction (NSP), a new task that pushes unified video models toward temporal and causal reasoning. Unlike text-to-video generation, NSP requires predicting plausible futures from preceding context, demanding deeper understanding and reasoning. To tackle this task, we propose a unified framework combining Qwen-VL for comprehension and LTX for synthesis, bridged by a latent query embedding and a connector module. This model is trained in three stages on our newly curated, large-scale NSP dataset: text-to-video pre-training, supervised fine-tuning, and reinforcement learning (via GRPO) with our proposed causal consistency reward. Experiments demonstrate our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on our benchmark, advancing the capability of generalist multimodal systems to anticipate what happens next.

Early exiting has recently emerged as a promising technique for accelerating large language models (LLMs) by effectively reducing the hardware computation and memory access. In this paper, we present SpecEE, a fast LLM inference engine with speculative early exiting. (1) At the algorithm level, we propose the speculation-based lightweight predictor design by exploiting the probabilistic correlation between the speculative tokens and the correct results and high parallelism of GPUs. (2) At the system level, we point out that not all layers need a predictor and design the two-level heuristic predictor scheduling engine based on skewed distribution and contextual similarity. (3) At the mapping level, we point out that different decoding methods share the same essential characteristics, and propose the context-aware merged mapping for predictor with efficient GPU implementations to support speculative decoding, and form a framework for various existing orthogonal acceleration techniques (e.g., quantization and sparse activation) on cloud and personal computer (PC) scenarios, successfully pushing the Pareto frontier of accuracy and speedup. It is worth noting that SpecEE can be applied to any LLM by negligible training overhead in advance without affecting the model original parameters. Extensive experiments show that SpecEE achieves 2.25x and 2.43x speedup with Llama2-7B on cloud and PC scenarios respectively.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

Since a building's floorplans are easily accessible, consistent over time, and inherently robust to changes in visual appearance, self-localization within the floorplan has attracted researchers' interest. However, since floorplans are minimalist representations of a building's structure, modal and geometric differences between visual perceptions and floorplans pose challenges to this task. While existing methods cleverly utilize 2D geometric features and pose filters to achieve promising performance, they fail to address the localization errors caused by frequent visual changes and view occlusions due to variously shaped 3D objects. To tackle these issues, this paper views the 2D Floorplan Localization (FLoc) problem from a higher dimension by injecting 3D geometric priors into the visual FLoc algorithm. For the 3D geometric prior modeling, we first model geometrically aware view invariance using multi-view constraints, i.e., leveraging imaging geometric principles to provide matching constraints between multiple images that see the same points. Then, we further model the view-scene aligned geometric priors, enhancing the cross-modal geometry-color correspondences by associating the scene's surface reconstruction with the RGB frames of the sequence. Both 3D priors are modeled through self-supervised contrastive learning, thus no additional geometric or semantic annotations are required. These 3D priors summarized in extensive realistic scenes bridge the modal gap while improving localization success without increasing the computational burden on the FLoc algorithm. Sufficient comparative studies demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods and substantially boosts the FLoc accuracy. All data and code will be released after the anonymous review.

Quantile regression is a fundamental problem in statistical learning motivated by a need to quantify uncertainty in predictions, or to model a diverse population without being overly reductive. For instance, epidemiological forecasts, cost estimates, and revenue predictions all benefit from being able to quantify the range of possible values accurately. As such, many models have been developed for this problem over many years of research in statistics, machine learning, and related fields. Rather than proposing yet another (new) algorithm for quantile regression we adopt a meta viewpoint: we investigate methods for aggregating any number of conditional quantile models, in order to improve accuracy and robustness. We consider weighted ensembles where weights may vary over not only individual models, but also over quantile levels, and feature values. All of the models we consider in this paper can be fit using modern deep learning toolkits, and hence are widely accessible (from an implementation point of view) and scalable. To improve the accuracy of the predicted quantiles (or equivalently, prediction intervals), we develop tools for ensuring that quantiles remain monotonically ordered, and apply conformal calibration methods. These can be used without any modification of the original library of base models. We also review some basic theory surrounding quantile aggregation and related scoring rules, and contribute a few new results to this literature (for example, the fact that post sorting or post isotonic regression can only improve the weighted interval score). Finally, we provide an extensive suite of empirical comparisons across 34 data sets from two different benchmark repositories.

Prediction sets have recently been shown to be a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of deep neural networks in a way that provides theoretical guarantees. However, existing techniques have largely targeted settings where the space of labels is simple, so prediction sets can be arbitrary subsets of labels. For structured prediction problems where the space of labels is exponential in size, even prediction sets containing a small fraction of all labels can be exponentially large. In the context of code generation, we propose a solution that considers a restricted set of prediction sets that can compactly be represented as partial programs, which are programs with portions replaced with holes. Given a trained code generation model, our algorithm leverages a programming language's abstract syntax tree to generate a set of programs such that the correct program is in the set with high-confidence. Valuable applications of our algorithm include a Codex-style code generator with holes in uncertain parts of the generated code, which provides a partial program with theoretical guarantees. We evaluate our approach on PICARD (a T5 model for SQL semantic parsing) and Codex (a GPT model for over a dozen programming languages, including Python), demonstrating that our approach generates compact PAC prediction sets. This is the first research contribution that generates PAC prediction sets for generative code models.

World models learn an internal representation of environment dynamics, enabling agents to simulate and reason about future states within a compact latent space for tasks such as planning, prediction, and inference. However, running world models rely on hevay computational cost and memory footprint, making model quantization essential for efficient deployment. To date, the effects of post-training quantization (PTQ) on world models remain largely unexamined. In this work, we present a systematic empirical study of world model quantization using DINO-WM as a representative case, evaluating diverse PTQ methods under both weight-only and joint weight-activation settings. We conduct extensive experiments on different visual planning tasks across a wide range of bit-widths, quantization granularities, and planning horizons up to 50 iterations. Our results show that quantization effects in world models extend beyond standard accuracy and bit-width trade-offs: group-wise weight quantization can stabilize low-bit rollouts, activation quantization granularity yields inconsistent benefits, and quantization sensitivity is highly asymmetric between encoder and predictor modules. Moreover, aggressive low-bit quantization significantly degrades the alignment between the planning objective and task success, leading to failures that cannot be remedied by additional optimization. These findings reveal distinct quantization-induced failure modes in world model-based planning and provide practical guidance for deploying quantized world models under strict computational constraints. The code will be available at https://github.com/huawei-noah/noah-research/tree/master/QuantWM.

Embodied AI requires agents that perceive, act, and anticipate how actions reshape future world states. World models serve as internal simulators that capture environment dynamics, enabling forward and counterfactual rollouts to support perception, prediction, and decision making. This survey presents a unified framework for world models in embodied AI. Specifically, we formalize the problem setting and learning objectives, and propose a three-axis taxonomy encompassing: (1) Functionality, Decision-Coupled vs. General-Purpose; (2) Temporal Modeling, Sequential Simulation and Inference vs. Global Difference Prediction; (3) Spatial Representation, Global Latent Vector, Token Feature Sequence, Spatial Latent Grid, and Decomposed Rendering Representation. We systematize data resources and metrics across robotics, autonomous driving, and general video settings, covering pixel prediction quality, state-level understanding, and task performance. Furthermore, we offer a quantitative comparison of state-of-the-art models and distill key open challenges, including the scarcity of unified datasets and the need for evaluation metrics that assess physical consistency over pixel fidelity, the trade-off between model performance and the computational efficiency required for real-time control, and the core modeling difficulty of achieving long-horizon temporal consistency while mitigating error accumulation. Finally, we maintain a curated bibliography at https://github.com/Li-Zn-H/AwesomeWorldModels.

We formulate the predicted-updates dynamic model, one of the first beyond-worst-case models for dynamic algorithms, which generalizes a large set of well-studied dynamic models including the offline dynamic, incremental, and decremental models to the fully dynamic setting when given predictions about the update times of the elements. In the most basic form of our model, we receive a set of predicted update times for all of the updates that occur over the event horizon. We give a novel framework that "lifts" offline divide-and-conquer algorithms into the fully dynamic setting with little overhead. Using this, we are able to interpolate between the offline and fully dynamic settings; when the ell_1 error of the prediction is linear in the number of updates, we achieve the offline runtime of the algorithm (up to poly log n factors). Provided a fully dynamic backstop algorithm, our algorithm will never do worse than the backstop algorithm regardless of the prediction error. Furthermore, our framework achieves a smooth linear trade-off between ell_1 error in the predictions and runtime. These correspond to the desiderata of consistency, robustness, and graceful degradation of the algorithms-with-predictions literature. We further extend our techniques to incremental and decremental settings, transforming algorithms in these settings when given predictions of only the deletion and insertion times, respectively. Our framework is general, and we apply it to obtain improved efficiency bounds over the state-of-the-art dynamic algorithms for a variety of problems including triconnectivity, planar digraph all pairs shortest paths, k-edge connectivity, and others, for prediction error of reasonable magnitude.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

Developing interactive agents that can understand language, perceive their surroundings, and act within the physical world is a long-standing goal of AI research. The Minecraft Collaborative Building Task (MCBT) (Narayan-Chen, Jayannavar, and Hockenmaier 2019), a two-player game in which an Architect (A) instructs a Builder (B) to construct a target structure in a simulated 3D Blocks World environment, offers a rich platform to work towards this goal. In this work, we focus on the Builder Action Prediction (BAP) subtask: predicting B's actions in a multimodal game context (Jayannavar, Narayan-Chen, and Hockenmaier 2020) - a challenging testbed for grounded instruction following, with limited training data. We holistically re-examine this task and introduce BAP v2 to address key challenges in evaluation, training data, and modeling. Specifically, we define an enhanced evaluation benchmark, featuring a cleaner test set and fairer, more insightful metrics that also reveal spatial reasoning as the primary performance bottleneck. To address data scarcity and to teach models basic spatial skills, we generate different types of synthetic MCBT data. We observe that current, LLM-based SOTA models trained on the human BAP dialogues fail on these simpler, synthetic BAP ones, but show that training models on this synthetic data improves their performance across the board. We also introduce a new SOTA model, Llama-CRAFTS, which leverages richer input representations, and achieves an F1 score of 53.0 on the BAP v2 task and strong performance on the synthetic data. While this result marks a notable 6 points improvement over previous work, it also underscores the task's remaining difficulty, establishing BAP v2 as a fertile ground for future research, and providing a useful measure of the spatial capabilities of current text-only LLMs in such embodied tasks.

Reasoning is a core capability of large language models, yet understanding how they learn and perform multi-step reasoning remains an open problem. In this study, we explore how different architectures and training methods affect model multi-step reasoning capabilities within a cellular automata framework. By training on state sequences generated with random Boolean functions for random initial conditions to exclude memorization, we demonstrate that most neural architectures learn to abstract the underlying rules. While models achieve high accuracy in next-state prediction, their performance declines sharply if multi-step reasoning is required. We confirm that increasing model depth plays a crucial role for sequential computations. We demonstrate that an extension of the effective model depth with recurrence, memory, and test-time compute scaling substantially enhances reasoning capabilities.

As world models gain momentum in Embodied AI, an increasing number of works explore using video foundation models as predictive world models for downstream embodied tasks like 3D prediction or interactive generation. However, before exploring these downstream tasks, video foundation models still have two critical questions unanswered: (1) whether their generative generalization is sufficient to maintain perceptual fidelity in the eyes of human observers, and (2) whether they are robust enough to serve as a universal prior for real-world embodied agents. To provide a standardized framework for answering these questions, we introduce the Embodied Turing Test benchmark: WoW-World-Eval (Wow,wo,val). Building upon 609 robot manipulation data, Wow-wo-val examines five core abilities, including perception, planning, prediction, generalization, and execution. We propose a comprehensive evaluation protocol with 22 metrics to assess the models' generation ability, which achieves a high Pearson Correlation between the overall score and human preference (>0.93) and establishes a reliable foundation for the Human Turing Test. On Wow-wo-val, models achieve only 17.27 on long-horizon planning and at best 68.02 on physical consistency, indicating limited spatiotemporal consistency and physical reasoning. For the Inverse Dynamic Model Turing Test, we first use an IDM to evaluate the video foundation models' execution accuracy in the real world. However, most models collapse to approx 0% success, while WoW maintains a 40.74% success rate. These findings point to a noticeable gap between the generated videos and the real world, highlighting the urgency and necessity of benchmarking World Model in Embodied AI.

We investigate the emergence of intuitive physics understanding in general-purpose deep neural network models trained to predict masked regions in natural videos. Leveraging the violation-of-expectation framework, we find that video prediction models trained to predict outcomes in a learned representation space demonstrate an understanding of various intuitive physics properties, such as object permanence and shape consistency. In contrast, video prediction in pixel space and multimodal large language models, which reason through text, achieve performance closer to chance. Our comparisons of these architectures reveal that jointly learning an abstract representation space while predicting missing parts of sensory input, akin to predictive coding, is sufficient to acquire an understanding of intuitive physics, and that even models trained on one week of unique video achieve above chance performance. This challenges the idea that core knowledge -- a set of innate systems to help understand the world -- needs to be hardwired to develop an understanding of intuitive physics.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

We present SeamlessGAN, a method capable of automatically generating tileable texture maps from a single input exemplar. In contrast to most existing methods, focused solely on solving the synthesis problem, our work tackles both problems, synthesis and tileability, simultaneously. Our key idea is to realize that tiling a latent space within a generative network trained using adversarial expansion techniques produces outputs with continuity at the seam intersection that can be then be turned into tileable images by cropping the central area. Since not every value of the latent space is valid to produce high-quality outputs, we leverage the discriminator as a perceptual error metric capable of identifying artifact-free textures during a sampling process. Further, in contrast to previous work on deep texture synthesis, our model is designed and optimized to work with multi-layered texture representations, enabling textures composed of multiple maps such as albedo, normals, etc. We extensively test our design choices for the network architecture, loss function and sampling parameters. We show qualitatively and quantitatively that our approach outperforms previous methods and works for textures of different types.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Analytical framework for predicting General Matrix Multiplication (GEMM) performance on modern GPUs, focusing on runtime, power consumption, and energy efficiency. Our study employs two approaches: a custom-implemented tiled matrix multiplication kernel for fundamental analysis, and NVIDIA's CUTLASS library for comprehensive performance data collection across advanced configurations. Using the NVIDIA RTX 4070 as our experimental platform, we developed a Random Forest-based prediction model with multi-output regression capability. Through analysis of both naive tiled matrix multiplication with varying tile sizes (1 to 32) and 16,128 CUTLASS GEMM operations across diverse configurations, we identified critical performance patterns related to matrix dimensions, thread block configurations, and memory access patterns. Our framework achieved exceptional accuracy with an R^2 score of 0.98 for runtime prediction (mean error 15.57%) and 0.78 for power prediction (median error 5.42%). The system successfully predicts performance across matrix sizes, demonstrating robust scaling behavior. Our results show that optimal tile size selection can improve performance by up to 3.2x while reducing power consumption by 22% compared to baseline configurations. Analysis of shared memory utilization and SM occupancy reveals that tile sizes of 16x16 achieve the best balance between parallelism and resource usage. The implementation of our framework, including prediction models and analysis tools, is available as an open-source project at GPPerf [https://github.com/pavlyhalim/GPPerf].

Recent studies have extended the application of large language models (LLMs) to geographic problems, revealing surprising geospatial competence even without explicit spatial supervision. However, LLMs still face challenges in spatial consistency, multi-hop reasoning, and geographic bias. To address these issues, we propose GeoSR, a self-refining agentic reasoning framework that embeds core geographic principles -- most notably Tobler's First Law of Geography -- into an iterative prediction loop. In GeoSR, the reasoning process is decomposed into three collaborating agents: (1) a variable-selection agent that selects relevant covariates from the same location; (2) a point-selection agent that chooses reference predictions at nearby locations generated by the LLM in previous rounds; and (3) a refine agent that coordinates the iterative refinement process by evaluating prediction quality and triggering further rounds when necessary. This agentic loop progressively improves prediction quality by leveraging both spatial dependencies and inter-variable relationships. We validate GeoSR on tasks ranging from physical-world property estimation to socioeconomic prediction. Experimental results show consistent improvements over standard prompting strategies, demonstrating that incorporating geostatistical priors and spatially structured reasoning into LLMs leads to more accurate and equitable geospatial predictions. The code of GeoSR is available at https://github.com/JinfanTang/GeoSR.

Tabular data prediction is a fundamental machine learning task for many applications. Existing methods predominantly employ discriminative modeling and operate under the assumption of a fixed target column, necessitating re-training for every new predictive task. Inspired by the generative power of large language models (LLMs), this paper exploits the idea of building universal tabular data predictors based on generative modeling, namely UniPredict. Here, we demonstrate the scalability of an LLM to extensive tabular datasets, enabling it to comprehend diverse tabular inputs and predict target variables following the provided instructions. Specifically, we train a single LLM on an aggregation of 169 tabular datasets with diverse targets and compare its performance against baselines that are trained on each dataset separately. We observe this versatile UniPredict model demonstrates an advantage over other models, ranging from 5.4% to 13.4%, when compared with the best tree-boosting baseline and the best neural network baseline, respectively. We further test UniPredict in few-shot learning settings on another 62 tabular datasets. Our method achieves strong performance in quickly adapting to new tasks. In low-resource few-shot setup, we observed a 100%+ performance advantage compared with XGBoost, and significant margin over all baselines. We envision that UniPredict sheds light on developing a universal tabular data prediction system that learns from data at scale and serves a wide range of prediction tasks.

Efficiently tackling combinatorial reasoning problems, particularly the notorious NP-hard tasks, remains a significant challenge for AI research. Recent efforts have sought to enhance planning by incorporating hierarchical high-level search strategies, known as subgoal methods. While promising, their performance against traditional low-level planners is inconsistent, raising questions about their application contexts. In this study, we conduct an in-depth exploration of subgoal-planning methods for combinatorial reasoning. We identify the attributes pivotal for leveraging the advantages of high-level search: hard-to-learn value functions, complex action spaces, presence of dead ends in the environment, or using data collected from diverse experts. We propose a consistent evaluation methodology to achieve meaningful comparisons between methods and reevaluate the state-of-the-art algorithms.

Planning with world models offers a powerful paradigm for robotic control. Conventional approaches train a model to predict future frames conditioned on current frames and actions, which can then be used for planning. However, the objective of predicting future pixels is often at odds with the actual planning objective; strong pixel reconstruction does not always correlate with good planning decisions. This paper posits that instead of reconstructing future frames as pixels, world models only need to predict task-relevant semantic information about the future. For such prediction the paper poses world modeling as a visual question answering problem about semantic information in future frames. This perspective allows world modeling to be approached with the same tools underlying vision language models. Thus vision language models can be trained as "semantic" world models through a supervised finetuning process on image-action-text data, enabling planning for decision-making while inheriting many of the generalization and robustness properties from the pretrained vision-language models. The paper demonstrates how such a semantic world model can be used for policy improvement on open-ended robotics tasks, leading to significant generalization improvements over typical paradigms of reconstruction-based action-conditional world modeling. Website available at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/swm.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have showcased their ability to perform complex reasoning tasks, but their effectiveness in planning remains underexplored. In this study, we evaluate the planning capabilities of OpenAI's o1 models across a variety of benchmark tasks, focusing on three key aspects: feasibility, optimality, and generalizability. Through empirical evaluations on constraint-heavy tasks (e.g., Barman, Tyreworld) and spatially complex environments (e.g., Termes, Floortile), we highlight o1-preview's strengths in self-evaluation and constraint-following, while also identifying bottlenecks in decision-making and memory management, particularly in tasks requiring robust spatial reasoning. Our results reveal that o1-preview outperforms GPT-4 in adhering to task constraints and managing state transitions in structured environments. However, the model often generates suboptimal solutions with redundant actions and struggles to generalize effectively in spatially complex tasks. This pilot study provides foundational insights into the planning limitations of LLMs, offering key directions for future research on improving memory management, decision-making, and generalization in LLM-based planning. Code available at https://github.com/VITA-Group/o1-planning.

Accurate prediction of human behavior is essential for robust and safe human-AI collaboration. However, existing approaches for modeling people are often data-hungry and brittle because they either make unrealistic assumptions about rationality or are too computationally demanding to adapt rapidly. Our key insight is that many everyday social interactions may follow predictable patterns; efficient "scripts" that minimize cognitive load for actors and observers, e.g., "wait for the green light, then go." We propose modeling these routines as behavioral programs instantiated in computer code rather than policies conditioned on beliefs and desires. We introduce ROTE, a novel algorithm that leverages both large language models (LLMs) for synthesizing a hypothesis space of behavioral programs, and probabilistic inference for reasoning about uncertainty over that space. We test ROTE in a suite of gridworld tasks and a large-scale embodied household simulator. ROTE predicts human and AI behaviors from sparse observations, outperforming competitive baselines -- including behavior cloning and LLM-based methods -- by as much as 50% in terms of in-sample accuracy and out-of-sample generalization. By treating action understanding as a program synthesis problem, ROTE opens a path for AI systems to efficiently and effectively predict human behavior in the real-world.

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate temporal reasoning behavior under progressively richer informational settings. TemporalBench adopts a four-tier task taxonomy that examines historical structure interpretation, context-free forecasting, contextual temporal reasoning, and event-conditioned prediction across four real-world domains: retail, healthcare, energy, and physical systems. By controlling access to future targets and contextual information, the benchmark enables a diagnostic analysis of whether models can correctly interpret temporal patterns, align them with external context, and adapt predictions when conditions change. Extensive baseline experiments show that strong numerical forecasting accuracy does not reliably translate into robust contextual or event-aware temporal reasoning; instead, existing agent frameworks exhibit fragmented strengths and systematic failure modes that remain largely hidden under forecasting-only benchmarks. The TemporalBench dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TemporalBench, and we additionally provide a public leaderboard at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Melady/TemporalBench_Leaderboard.

We consider the inverse problem of reconstructing the spatial layout of a place, a home floorplan for example, from a user`s movements inside that layout. Direct inversion is ill-posed since many floorplans can explain the same movement trajectories. We adopt a diffusion-based posterior sampler to generate layouts consistent with the measurements. While active research is in progress on generative inverse solvers, we find that the forward operator in our problem poses new challenges. The path-planning process inside a floorplan is a non-invertible, non-differentiable function, and causes instability while optimizing using the likelihood score. We break-away from existing approaches and reformulate the likelihood score in a smoother embedding space. The embedding space is trained with a contrastive loss which brings compatible floorplans and trajectories close to each other, while pushing mismatched pairs far apart. We show that a surrogate form of the likelihood score in this embedding space is a valid approximation of the true likelihood score, making it possible to steer the denoising process towards the posterior. Across extensive experiments, our model CoGuide produces more consistent floorplans from trajectories, and is more robust than differentiable-planner baselines and guided-diffusion methods.

We developed a benchmark set to assess the generalization of state-of-the-art large language models on problems beyond linguistic tasks and evaluate it on a systematic progression of GPT models (GPT-3.5, GPT-4, GPT-4o, GPT-4o-mini). Using simple games like Tic-Tac-Toe, Connect Four, Battleship, and a Shape Recognition Game, all encoded in ASCII, we test strategic capabilities and spatial reasoning, core abilities any artificial intelligence would need to master for solving problems in chemistry. To probe generalization, we introduce two new games for spatial logic: LEGO Connect Language (LCL) and Guess-the-SMILES (GtS), a operationally simple chemistry benchmark. Our results show that GPT models provide meaningful responses for several tasks but, generally, perform poorly. A systematic performance progression with increased model capabilities (GPT-3.5, GPT-4, GPT-4o) is only observed for 4 out of the 7 benchmark tasks. All models consistently struggle with Battleship, LCL, and GtS. This suggests that while GPT models can emulate conversational proficiency and basic rule comprehension, they have limited generalization with respect to strategy and spatial reasoning. Particularly poor performance is observed for interpreting molecular graphs when encoded in ASCII. The results provided by our open-source benchmark suite (https://github.com/BlueVelvetSackOfGoldPotatoes/child-play{ChildPlay GitHub Repository}) caution against claims of emergent intelligence in GPT models, which appear more specialized than general.

Next location prediction plays a crucial role in various real-world applications. Recently, due to the limitation of existing deep learning methods, attempts have been made to apply large language models (LLMs) to zero-shot next location prediction task. However, they directly generate the final output using LLMs without systematic design, which limits the potential of LLMs to uncover complex mobility patterns and underestimates their extensive reserve of global geospatial knowledge. In this paper, we introduce AgentMove, a systematic agentic prediction framework to achieve generalized next location prediction. In AgentMove, we first decompose the mobility prediction task and design specific modules to complete them, including spatial-temporal memory for individual mobility pattern mining, world knowledge generator for modeling the effects of urban structure and collective knowledge extractor for capturing the shared patterns among population. Finally, we combine the results of three modules and conduct a reasoning step to generate the final predictions. Extensive experiments utilizing mobility data from two distinct sources reveal that AgentMove surpasses the leading baseline by 3.33% to 8.57% across 8 out of 12 metrics and it shows robust predictions with various LLMs as base and also less geographical bias across cities. Our codes are available via https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/AgentMove.

To generate accurate videos, algorithms have to understand the spatial and temporal dependencies in the world. Current algorithms enable accurate predictions over short horizons but tend to suffer from temporal inconsistencies. When generated content goes out of view and is later revisited, the model invents different content instead. Despite this severe limitation, no established benchmarks on complex data exist for rigorously evaluating video generation with long temporal dependencies. In this paper, we curate 3 challenging video datasets with long-range dependencies by rendering walks through 3D scenes of procedural mazes, Minecraft worlds, and indoor scans. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of current models and observe their limitations in temporal consistency. Moreover, we introduce the Temporally Consistent Transformer (TECO), a generative model that substantially improves long-term consistency while also reducing sampling time. By compressing its input sequence into fewer embeddings, applying a temporal transformer, and expanding back using a spatial MaskGit, TECO outperforms existing models across many metrics. Videos are available on the website: https://wilson1yan.github.io/teco

Joint-Embedding Predictive Architecture (JEPA) has emerged as a promising self-supervised approach that learns by leveraging a world model. While previously limited to predicting missing parts of an input, we explore how to generalize the JEPA prediction task to a broader set of corruptions. We introduce Image World Models, an approach that goes beyond masked image modeling and learns to predict the effect of global photometric transformations in latent space. We study the recipe of learning performant IWMs and show that it relies on three key aspects: conditioning, prediction difficulty, and capacity. Additionally, we show that the predictive world model learned by IWM can be adapted through finetuning to solve diverse tasks; a fine-tuned IWM world model matches or surpasses the performance of previous self-supervised methods. Finally, we show that learning with an IWM allows one to control the abstraction level of the learned representations, learning invariant representations such as contrastive methods, or equivariant representations such as masked image modelling.

Recent approaches for predicting layouts from 360 panoramas produce excellent results. These approaches build on a common framework consisting of three steps: a pre-processing step based on edge-based alignment, prediction of layout elements, and a post-processing step by fitting a 3D layout to the layout elements. Until now, it has been difficult to compare the methods due to multiple different design decisions, such as the encoding network (e.g. SegNet or ResNet), type of elements predicted (e.g. corners, wall/floor boundaries, or semantic segmentation), or method of fitting the 3D layout. To address this challenge, we summarize and describe the common framework, the variants, and the impact of the design decisions. For a complete evaluation, we also propose extended annotations for the Matterport3D dataset [3], and introduce two depth-based evaluation metrics.

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

Conformal prediction is a theoretically grounded framework for constructing predictive intervals. We study conformal prediction with missing values in the covariates -- a setting that brings new challenges to uncertainty quantification. We first show that the marginal coverage guarantee of conformal prediction holds on imputed data for any missingness distribution and almost all imputation functions. However, we emphasize that the average coverage varies depending on the pattern of missing values: conformal methods tend to construct prediction intervals that under-cover the response conditionally to some missing patterns. This motivates our novel generalized conformalized quantile regression framework, missing data augmentation, which yields prediction intervals that are valid conditionally to the patterns of missing values, despite their exponential number. We then show that a universally consistent quantile regression algorithm trained on the imputed data is Bayes optimal for the pinball risk, thus achieving valid coverage conditionally to any given data point. Moreover, we examine the case of a linear model, which demonstrates the importance of our proposal in overcoming the heteroskedasticity induced by missing values. Using synthetic and data from critical care, we corroborate our theory and report improved performance of our methods.

Multi-modal models have achieved remarkable progress in recent years. Nevertheless, they continue to exhibit notable limitations in spatial understanding and reasoning, which are fundamental capabilities to achieving artificial general intelligence. With the recent release of GPT-5, allegedly the most powerful AI model to date, it is timely to examine where the leading models stand on the path toward spatial intelligence. First, we propose a comprehensive taxonomy of spatial tasks that unifies existing benchmarks and discuss the challenges in ensuring fair evaluation. We then evaluate state-of-the-art proprietary and open-source models on eight key benchmarks, at a cost exceeding one billion total tokens. Our empirical study reveals that (1) GPT-5 demonstrates unprecedented strength in spatial intelligence, yet (2) still falls short of human performance across a broad spectrum of tasks. Moreover, we (3) identify the more challenging spatial intelligence problems for multi-modal models, and (4) proprietary models do not exhibit a decisive advantage when facing the most difficult problems. In addition, we conduct a qualitative evaluation across a diverse set of scenarios that are intuitive for humans yet fail even the most advanced multi-modal models.

How do multimodal models solve visual spatial tasks -- through genuine planning, or through brute-force search in token space? We introduce MazeBench, a benchmark of 110 procedurally generated maze images across nine controlled groups, and evaluate 16 model configurations from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Alibaba. GPT-5.4 solves 91\% and Gemini 3.1 Pro 79\%, but these scores are misleading: models typically translate images into text grids and then enumerate paths step by step, consuming 1,710--22,818 tokens per solve for a task humans do quickly. Without added reasoning budgets, all configurations score only 2--12\%; on 20times20 ultra-hard mazes, they hit token limits and fail. Qualitative traces reveal a common two-stage strategy: image-to-grid translation followed by token-level search, effectively BFS in prose. A text-grid ablation shows Claude Sonnet 4.6 rising from 6\% on images to 80\% when given the correct grid, isolating weak visual extraction from downstream search. When explicitly instructed not to construct a grid or perform graph search, models still revert to the same enumeration strategy. MazeBench therefore shows that high accuracy on visual planning tasks does not imply human-like spatial understanding.

Ensuring safe and effective use of AI requires understanding and anticipating its performance on novel tasks, from advanced scientific challenges to transformed workplace activities. So far, benchmarking has guided progress in AI, but it has offered limited explanatory and predictive power for general-purpose AI systems, given the low transferability across diverse tasks. In this paper, we introduce general scales for AI evaluation that can explain what common AI benchmarks really measure, extract ability profiles of AI systems, and predict their performance for new task instances, in- and out-of-distribution. Our fully-automated methodology builds on 18 newly-crafted rubrics that place instance demands on general scales that do not saturate. Illustrated for 15 large language models and 63 tasks, high explanatory power is unleashed from inspecting the demand and ability profiles, bringing insights on the sensitivity and specificity exhibited by different benchmarks, and how knowledge, metacognition and reasoning are affected by model size, chain-of-thought and distillation. Surprisingly, high predictive power at the instance level becomes possible using these demand levels, providing superior estimates over black-box baseline predictors based on embeddings or finetuning, especially in out-of-distribution settings (new tasks and new benchmarks). The scales, rubrics, battery, techniques and results presented here represent a major step for AI evaluation, underpinning the reliable deployment of AI in the years ahead. (Collaborative platform: https://kinds-of-intelligence-cfi.github.io/ADELE.)

Enabling VLA models to predict environmental dynamics, known as world modeling, has been recognized as essential for improving robotic reasoning and generalization. However, current approaches face two main issues: 1. The training objective forces models to over-emphasize pixel-level reconstruction, which constrains semantic learning and generalization 2. Reliance on predicted future observations during inference often leads to error accumulation. To address these challenges, we introduce Future Representation Alignment via Parallel Progressive Expansion (FRAPPE). Our method adopts a two-stage fine-tuning strategy: In the mid-training phase, the model learns to predict the latent representations of future observations; In the post-training phase, we expand the computational workload in parallel and align the representation simultaneously with multiple different visual foundation models. By significantly improving fine-tuning efficiency and reducing dependence on action-annotated data, FRAPPE provides a scalable and data-efficient pathway to enhance world-awareness in generalist robotic policies. Experiments on the RoboTwin benchmark and real-world tasks demonstrate that FRAPPE outperforms state-of-the-art approaches and shows strong generalization in long-horizon and unseen scenarios.

This study introduces a human-in-the-loop pipeline that converts unscaled, hand-drawn floor plan sketches into semantically consistent 3D BIM models. The workflow leverages multimodal large language models (MLLMs) within a multi-agent framework, combining perceptual extraction, human feedback, schema validation, and automated BIM scripting. Initially, sketches are iteratively refined into a structured JSON layout of walls, doors, and windows. Later, these layouts are transformed into executable scripts that generate 3D BIM models. Experiments on ten diverse floor plans demonstrate strong convergence: openings (doors, windows) are captured with high reliability in the initial pass, while wall detection begins around 83% and achieves near-perfect alignment after a few feedback iterations. Across all categories, precision, recall, and F1 scores remain above 0.83, and geometric errors (RMSE, MAE) progressively decrease to zero through feedback corrections. This study demonstrates how MLLM-driven multi-agent reasoning can make BIM creation accessible to both experts and non-experts using only freehand sketches.

In this paper, we study the content-aware layout generation problem, which aims to automatically generate layouts that are harmonious with a given background image. Existing methods usually deal with this task with a single-step reasoning framework. The lack of a feedback-based self-correction mechanism leads to their failure rates significantly increasing when faced with complex element layout planning. To address this challenge, we introduce SEGA, a novel Stepwise Evolution Paradigm for Content-Aware Layout Generation. Inspired by the systematic mode of human thinking, SEGA employs a hierarchical reasoning framework with a coarse-to-fine strategy: first, a coarse-level module roughly estimates the layout planning results; then, another refining module performs fine-level reasoning regarding the coarse planning results. Furthermore, we incorporate layout design principles as prior knowledge into the model to enhance its layout planning ability. Besides, we present GenPoster-100K that is a new large-scale poster dataset with rich meta-information annotation. The experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by achieving the state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmark datasets. Our project page is at: https://brucew91.github.io/SEGA.github.io/

Recovering pixel-wise geometric properties from a single image is fundamentally ill-posed due to appearance ambiguity and non-injective mappings between 2D observations and 3D structures. While discriminative regression models achieve strong performance through large-scale supervision, their success is bounded by the scale, quality and diversity of available data and limited physical reasoning. Recent diffusion models exhibit powerful world priors that encode geometry and semantics learned from massive image-text data, yet directly reusing their stochastic generative formulation is suboptimal for deterministic geometric inference: the former is optimized for diverse and high-fidelity image generation, whereas the latter requires stable and accurate predictions. In this work, we propose Lotus-2, a two-stage deterministic framework for stable, accurate and fine-grained geometric dense prediction, aiming to provide an optimal adaption protocol to fully exploit the pre-trained generative priors. Specifically, in the first stage, the core predictor employs a single-step deterministic formulation with a clean-data objective and a lightweight local continuity module (LCM) to generate globally coherent structures without grid artifacts. In the second stage, the detail sharpener performs a constrained multi-step rectified-flow refinement within the manifold defined by the core predictor, enhancing fine-grained geometry through noise-free deterministic flow matching. Using only 59K training samples, less than 1% of existing large-scale datasets, Lotus-2 establishes new state-of-the-art results in monocular depth estimation and highly competitive surface normal prediction. These results demonstrate that diffusion models can serve as deterministic world priors, enabling high-quality geometric reasoning beyond traditional discriminative and generative paradigms.

We introduce a novel framework for incorporating human expertise into algorithmic predictions. Our approach leverages human judgment to distinguish inputs which are algorithmically indistinguishable, or "look the same" to predictive algorithms. We argue that this framing clarifies the problem of human-AI collaboration in prediction tasks, as experts often form judgments by drawing on information which is not encoded in an algorithm's training data. Algorithmic indistinguishability yields a natural test for assessing whether experts incorporate this kind of "side information", and further provides a simple but principled method for selectively incorporating human feedback into algorithmic predictions. We show that this method provably improves the performance of any feasible algorithmic predictor and precisely quantify this improvement. We find empirically that although algorithms often outperform their human counterparts on average, human judgment can improve algorithmic predictions on specific instances (which can be identified ex-ante). In an X-ray classification task, we find that this subset constitutes nearly 30% of the patient population. Our approach provides a natural way of uncovering this heterogeneity and thus enabling effective human-AI collaboration.

Despite impressive progress in video generation, existing models remain limited to surface-level plausibility, lacking a coherent and unified understanding of the world. Prior approaches typically incorporate only a single form of world-related knowledge or rely on rigid alignment strategies to introduce additional knowledge. However, aligning the single world knowledge is insufficient to constitute a world model that requires jointly modeling multiple heterogeneous dimensions (e.g., physical commonsense, 3D and temporal consistency). To address this limitation, we introduce DreamWorld, a unified framework that integrates complementary world knowledge into video generators via a Joint World Modeling Paradigm, jointly predicting video pixels and features from foundation models to capture temporal dynamics, spatial geometry, and semantic consistency. However, naively optimizing these heterogeneous objectives can lead to visual instability and temporal flickering. To mitigate this issue, we propose Consistent Constraint Annealing (CCA) to progressively regulate world-level constraints during training, and Multi-Source Inner-Guidance to enforce learned world priors at inference. Extensive evaluations show that DreamWorld improves world consistency, outperforming Wan2.1 by 2.26 points on VBench. Code will be made publicly available at https://github.com/ABU121111/DreamWorld{mypink{Github}}.

Embodied AI agents that search for objects in large environments such as households often need to make efficient decisions by predicting object locations based on partial information. We pose this as a new type of link prediction problem: link prediction on partially observable dynamic graphs. Our graph is a representation of a scene in which rooms and objects are nodes, and their relationships are encoded in the edges; only parts of the changing graph are known to the agent at each timestep. This partial observability poses a challenge to existing link prediction approaches, which we address. We propose a novel state representation -- Scene Graph Memory (SGM) -- with captures the agent's accumulated set of observations, as well as a neural net architecture called a Node Edge Predictor (NEP) that extracts information from the SGM to search efficiently. We evaluate our method in the Dynamic House Simulator, a new benchmark that creates diverse dynamic graphs following the semantic patterns typically seen at homes, and show that NEP can be trained to predict the locations of objects in a variety of environments with diverse object movement dynamics, outperforming baselines both in terms of new scene adaptability and overall accuracy. The codebase and more can be found at https://www.scenegraphmemory.com.

Embodied intelligence, a grand challenge in artificial intelligence, is fundamentally constrained by the limited spatial understanding and reasoning capabilities of current models. Prevailing efforts to address this through enhancing Vision-Language Models (VLMs) are trapped in a dilemma: template-based datasets are scalable but structurally rigid, while manual annotation is linguistically diverse but unscalable and, critically, computationally imprecise. We introduce SPRITE, a novel framework that overcomes this dilemma by leveraging simulators and large models to programmatically synthesize scalable, diverse, and high-quality spatial reasoning data. The core innovation of SPRITE is to reframe ground-truth generation as a code-generation task. We utilize LLMs to compile complex spatial questions into executable programs, which are then verified against high-precision scene meta-information extracted from simulators. This ensures our ground truth is both computationally precise and verifiable, while the generative power of LLMs provides vast linguistic diversity. Leveraging this pipeline, we have curated a dataset encompassing 3 simulators, 11k+ scenes, and 300k+ image/video instruction-tuning pairs. We demonstrate that a VLM trained on our data achieves significant performance gains on multiple spatial benchmarks and outperforms other open-source datasets of equivalent size. Furthermore, a scalability analysis confirms our hypothesis that overcoming the low-diversity nature of traditional template methods is essential for building robust, generalizable spatial intelligence. We will make the SPRITE framework code and the full 300k+ dataset publicly available to facilitate future research in spatial intelligence.

Spatiotemporal forecasting techniques are significant for various domains such as transportation, energy, and weather. Accurate prediction of spatiotemporal series remains challenging due to the complex spatiotemporal heterogeneity. In particular, current end-to-end models are limited by input length and thus often fall into spatiotemporal mirage, i.e., similar input time series followed by dissimilar future values and vice versa. To address these problems, we propose a novel self-supervised pre-training framework Spatial-Temporal-Decoupled Masked Pre-training (STD-MAE) that employs two decoupled masked autoencoders to reconstruct spatiotemporal series along the spatial and temporal dimensions. Rich-context representations learned through such reconstruction could be seamlessly integrated by downstream predictors with arbitrary architectures to augment their performances. A series of quantitative and qualitative evaluations on six widely used benchmarks (PEMS03, PEMS04, PEMS07, PEMS08, METR-LA, and PEMS-BAY) are conducted to validate the state-of-the-art performance of STD-MAE. Codes are available at https://github.com/Jimmy-7664/STD-MAE.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

World models (WMs) are intended to serve as internal simulators of the real world that enable agents to understand, anticipate, and act upon complex environments. Existing WM benchmarks remain narrowly focused on next-state prediction and visual fidelity, overlooking the richer simulation capabilities required for intelligent behavior. To address this gap, we introduce WR-Arena, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating WMs along three fundamental dimensions of next world simulation: (i) Action Simulation Fidelity, the ability to interpret and follow semantically meaningful, multi-step instructions and generate diverse counterfactual rollouts; (ii) Long-horizon Forecast, the ability to sustain accurate, coherent, and physically plausible simulations across extended interactions; and (iii) Simulative Reasoning and Planning, the ability to support goal-directed reasoning by simulating, comparing, and selecting among alternative futures in both structured and open-ended environments. We build a task taxonomy and curate diverse datasets designed to probe these capabilities, moving beyond single-turn and perceptual evaluations. Through extensive experiments with state-of-the-art WMs, our results expose a substantial gap between current models and human-level hypothetical reasoning, and establish WR-Arena as both a diagnostic tool and a guideline for advancing next-generation world models capable of robust understanding, forecasting, and purposeful action. The code is available at https://github.com/MBZUAI-IFM/WR-Arena.

The task of predicting time and location from images is challenging and requires complex human-like puzzle-solving ability over different clues. In this work, we formalize this ability into core skills and implement them using different modules in an expert pipeline called PuzzleGPT. PuzzleGPT consists of a perceiver to identify visual clues, a reasoner to deduce prediction candidates, a combiner to combinatorially combine information from different clues, a web retriever to get external knowledge if the task can't be solved locally, and a noise filter for robustness. This results in a zero-shot, interpretable, and robust approach that records state-of-the-art performance on two datasets -- TARA and WikiTilo. PuzzleGPT outperforms large VLMs such as BLIP-2, InstructBLIP, LLaVA, and even GPT-4V, as well as automatically generated reasoning pipelines like VisProg, by at least 32% and 38%, respectively. It even rivals or surpasses finetuned models.

Current robotic planning methods often rely on predicting multi-frame images with full pixel details. While this fine-grained approach can serve as a generic world model, it introduces two significant challenges for downstream policy learning: substantial computational costs that hinder real-time deployment, and accumulated inaccuracies that can mislead action extraction. Planning with coarse-grained subgoals partially alleviates efficiency issues. However, their forward planning schemes can still result in off-task predictions due to accumulation errors, leading to misalignment with long-term goals. This raises a critical question: Can robotic planning be both efficient and accurate enough for real-time control in long-horizon, multi-stage tasks? To address this, we propose a Latent Space Backward Planning scheme (LBP), which begins by grounding the task into final latent goals, followed by recursively predicting intermediate subgoals closer to the current state. The grounded final goal enables backward subgoal planning to always remain aware of task completion, facilitating on-task prediction along the entire planning horizon. The subgoal-conditioned policy incorporates a learnable token to summarize the subgoal sequences and determines how each subgoal guides action extraction. Through extensive simulation and real-robot long-horizon experiments, we show that LBP outperforms existing fine-grained and forward planning methods, achieving SOTA performance. Project Page: https://lbp-authors.github.io

We introduce HY-World 2.0, a multi-modal world model framework that advances our prior project HY-World 1.0. HY-World 2.0 accommodates diverse input modalities, including text prompts, single-view images, multi-view images, and videos, and produces 3D world representations. With text or single-view image inputs, the model performs world generation, synthesizing high-fidelity, navigable 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) scenes. This is achieved through a four-stage method: a) Panorama Generation with HY-Pano 2.0, b) Trajectory Planning with WorldNav, c) World Expansion with WorldStereo 2.0, and d) World Composition with WorldMirror 2.0. Specifically, we introduce key innovations to enhance panorama fidelity, enable 3D scene understanding and planning, and upgrade WorldStereo, our keyframe-based view generation model with consistent memory. We also upgrade WorldMirror, a feed-forward model for universal 3D prediction, by refining model architecture and learning strategy, enabling world reconstruction from multi-view images or videos. Also, we introduce WorldLens, a high-performance 3DGS rendering platform featuring a flexible engine-agnostic architecture, automatic IBL lighting, efficient collision detection, and training-rendering co-design, enabling interactive exploration of 3D worlds with character support. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HY-World 2.0 achieves state-of-the-art performance on several benchmarks among open-source approaches, delivering results comparable to the closed-source model Marble. We release all model weights, code, and technical details to facilitate reproducibility and support further research on 3D world models.

Recent advancements in predictive models have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in predicting the future state of objects and scenes. However, the lack of categorization based on inherent characteristics continues to hinder the progress of predictive model development. Additionally, existing benchmarks are unable to effectively evaluate higher-capability, highly embodied predictive models from an embodied perspective. In this work, we classify the functionalities of predictive models into a hierarchy and take the first step in evaluating World Simulators by proposing a dual evaluation framework called WorldSimBench. WorldSimBench includes Explicit Perceptual Evaluation and Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, encompassing human preference assessments from the visual perspective and action-level evaluations in embodied tasks, covering three representative embodied scenarios: Open-Ended Embodied Environment, Autonomous, Driving, and Robot Manipulation. In the Explicit Perceptual Evaluation, we introduce the HF-Embodied Dataset, a video assessment dataset based on fine-grained human feedback, which we use to train a Human Preference Evaluator that aligns with human perception and explicitly assesses the visual fidelity of World Simulators. In the Implicit Manipulative Evaluation, we assess the video-action consistency of World Simulators by evaluating whether the generated situation-aware video can be accurately translated into the correct control signals in dynamic environments. Our comprehensive evaluation offers key insights that can drive further innovation in video generation models, positioning World Simulators as a pivotal advancement toward embodied artificial intelligence.

Autoregressive models for video generation typically operate frame-by-frame, extending next-token prediction from language to video's temporal dimension. We question that unlike word as token is universally agreed in language if frame is a appropriate prediction unit? To address this, we present VideoAR, a unified framework that supports a spectrum of prediction units including full frames, key-detail frames, multiscale refinements, and spatiotemporal cubes. Among these designs, we find model video generation using spatiotemporal cubes as prediction units, which allows autoregressive models to operate across both spatial and temporal dimensions simultaneously. This approach eliminates the assumption that frames are the natural atomic units for video autoregression. We evaluate VideoAR across diverse prediction strategies, finding that cube-based prediction consistently delivers superior quality, speed, and temporal coherence. By removing the frame-by-frame constraint, our video generator surpasses state-of-the-art baselines on VBench while achieving faster inference and enabling seamless scaling to minute-long sequences. We hope this work will motivate rethinking sequence decomposition in video and other spatiotemporal domains.

We present CAGE (Continuity-Aware edGE) network, a robust framework for reconstructing vector floorplans directly from point-cloud density maps. Traditional corner-based polygon representations are highly sensitive to noise and incomplete observations, often resulting in fragmented or implausible layouts.Recent line grouping methods leverage structural cues to improve robustness but still struggle to recover fine geometric details. To address these limitations,we propose a native edge-centric formulation, modeling each wall segment as a directed, geometrically continuous edge. This representation enables inference of coherent floorplan structures, ensuring watertight, topologically valid room boundaries while improving robustness and reducing artifacts. Towards this design, we develop a dual-query transformer decoder that integrates perturbed and latent queries within a denoising framework, which not only stabilizes optimization but also accelerates convergence. Extensive experiments on Structured3D and SceneCAD show that CAGE achieves state-of-the-art performance, with F1 scores of 99.1% (rooms), 91.7% (corners), and 89.3% (angles). The method also demonstrates strong cross-dataset generalization, underscoring the efficacy of our architectural innovations. Code and pretrained models are available on our project page: https://github.com/ee-Liu/CAGE.git.

Humans can perform complex tasks with long-term objectives by planning, reasoning, and forecasting outcomes of actions. For embodied agents to achieve similar capabilities, they must gain knowledge of the environment transferable to novel scenarios with a limited budget of additional trial and error. Learning-based approaches, such as deep RL, can discover and take advantage of inherent regularities and characteristics of the application domain from data, and continuously improve their performances, however at a cost of large amounts of training data. This thesis explores the development of data-driven techniques for spatial reasoning and planning tasks, focusing on enhancing learning efficiency, interpretability, and transferability across novel scenarios. Four key contributions are made. 1) CALVIN, a differential planner that learns interpretable models of the world for long-term planning. It successfully navigated partially observable 3D environments, such as mazes and indoor rooms, by learning the rewards and state transitions from expert demonstrations. 2) SOAP, an RL algorithm that discovers options unsupervised for long-horizon tasks. Options segment a task into subtasks and enable consistent execution of the subtask. SOAP showed robust performances on history-conditional corridor tasks as well as classical benchmarks such as Atari. 3) LangProp, a code optimisation framework using LLMs to solve embodied agent problems that require reasoning by treating code as learnable policies. The framework successfully generated interpretable code with comparable or superior performance to human-written experts in the CARLA autonomous driving benchmark. 4) Voggite, an embodied agent with a vision-to-action transformer backend that solves complex tasks in Minecraft. It achieved third place in the MineRL BASALT Competition by identifying action triggers to segment tasks into multiple stages.

Modeling the distribution of natural images is a landmark problem in unsupervised learning. This task requires an image model that is at once expressive, tractable and scalable. We present a deep neural network that sequentially predicts the pixels in an image along the two spatial dimensions. Our method models the discrete probability of the raw pixel values and encodes the complete set of dependencies in the image. Architectural novelties include fast two-dimensional recurrent layers and an effective use of residual connections in deep recurrent networks. We achieve log-likelihood scores on natural images that are considerably better than the previous state of the art. Our main results also provide benchmarks on the diverse ImageNet dataset. Samples generated from the model appear crisp, varied and globally coherent.

Do large language models (LLMs) anticipate when they will answer correctly? To study this, we extract activations after a question is read but before any tokens are generated, and train linear probes to predict whether the model's forthcoming answer will be correct. Across three open-source model families ranging from 7 to 70 billion parameters, projections on this "in-advance correctness direction" trained on generic trivia questions predict success in distribution and on diverse out-of-distribution knowledge datasets, outperforming black-box baselines and verbalised predicted confidence. Predictive power saturates in intermediate layers, suggesting that self-assessment emerges mid-computation. Notably, generalisation falters on questions requiring mathematical reasoning. Moreover, for models responding "I don't know", doing so strongly correlates with the probe score, indicating that the same direction also captures confidence. By complementing previous results on truthfulness and other behaviours obtained with probes and sparse auto-encoders, our work contributes essential findings to elucidate LLM internals.

We present LASER, an image-based Monte Carlo Localization (MCL) framework for 2D floor maps. LASER introduces the concept of latent space rendering, where 2D pose hypotheses on the floor map are directly rendered into a geometrically-structured latent space by aggregating viewing ray features. Through a tightly coupled rendering codebook scheme, the viewing ray features are dynamically determined at rendering-time based on their geometries (i.e. length, incident-angle), endowing our representation with view-dependent fine-grain variability. Our codebook scheme effectively disentangles feature encoding from rendering, allowing the latent space rendering to run at speeds above 10KHz. Moreover, through metric learning, our geometrically-structured latent space is common to both pose hypotheses and query images with arbitrary field of views. As a result, LASER achieves state-of-the-art performance on large-scale indoor localization datasets (i.e. ZInD and Structured3D) for both panorama and perspective image queries, while significantly outperforming existing learning-based methods in speed.

Building Footprint Extraction (BFE) from off-nadir aerial images often involves roof segmentation and offset prediction to adjust roof boundaries to the building footprint. However, this multi-stage approach typically produces low-quality results, limiting its applicability in real-world data production. To address this issue, we present OBMv2, an end-to-end and promptable model for polygonal footprint prediction. Unlike its predecessor OBM, OBMv2 introduces a novel Self Offset Attention (SOFA) mechanism that improves performance across diverse building types, from bungalows to skyscrapers, enabling end-to-end footprint prediction without post-processing. Additionally, we propose a Multi-level Information System (MISS) to effectively leverage roof masks, building masks, and offsets for accurate footprint prediction. We evaluate OBMv2 on the BONAI and OmniCity-view3 datasets and demonstrate its generalization on the Huizhou test set. The code will be available at https://github.com/likaiucas/OBMv2.

Sparse observations and coarse-resolution climate models limit effective regional decision-making, underscoring the need for robust downscaling. However, existing AI methods struggle with generalization across variables and geographies and are constrained by the quadratic complexity of Vision Transformer (ViT) self-attention. We introduce ORBIT-2, a scalable foundation model for global, hyper-resolution climate downscaling. ORBIT-2 incorporates two key innovations: (1) Residual Slim ViT (Reslim), a lightweight architecture with residual learning and Bayesian regularization for efficient, robust prediction; and (2) TILES, a tile-wise sequence scaling algorithm that reduces self-attention complexity from quadratic to linear, enabling long-sequence processing and massive parallelism. ORBIT-2 scales to 10 billion parameters across 65,536 GPUs, achieving up to 4.1 exaFLOPS sustained throughput and 74--98% strong scaling efficiency. It supports downscaling to 0.9 km global resolution and processes sequences up to 4.2 billion tokens. On 7 km resolution benchmarks, ORBIT-2 achieves high accuracy with R^2 scores in the range of 0.98--0.99 against observational data.

In this paper, we introduce a conformal prediction method to construct prediction sets in a oneshot federated learning setting. More specifically, we define a quantile-of-quantiles estimator and prove that for any distribution, it is possible to output prediction sets with desired coverage in only one round of communication. To mitigate privacy issues, we also describe a locally differentially private version of our estimator. Finally, over a wide range of experiments, we show that our method returns prediction sets with coverage and length very similar to those obtained in a centralized setting. Overall, these results demonstrate that our method is particularly well-suited to perform conformal predictions in a one-shot federated learning setting.

We present EB-JEPA, an open-source library for learning representations and world models using Joint-Embedding Predictive Architectures (JEPAs). JEPAs learn to predict in representation space rather than pixel space, avoiding the pitfalls of generative modeling while capturing semantically meaningful features suitable for downstream tasks. Our library provides modular, self-contained implementations that illustrate how representation learning techniques developed for image-level self-supervised learning can transfer to video, where temporal dynamics add complexity, and ultimately to action-conditioned world models, where the model must additionally learn to predict the effects of control inputs. Each example is designed for single-GPU training within a few hours, making energy-based self-supervised learning accessible for research and education. We provide ablations of JEA components on CIFAR-10. Probing these representations yields 91% accuracy, indicating that the model learns useful features. Extending to video, we include a multi-step prediction example on Moving MNIST that demonstrates how the same principles scale to temporal modeling. Finally, we show how these representations can drive action-conditioned world models, achieving a 97% planning success rate on the Two Rooms navigation task. Comprehensive ablations reveal the critical importance of each regularization component for preventing representation collapse. Code is available at https://github.com/facebookresearch/eb_jepa.

We introduce TexTile, a novel differentiable metric to quantify the degree upon which a texture image can be concatenated with itself without introducing repeating artifacts (i.e., the tileability). Existing methods for tileable texture synthesis focus on general texture quality, but lack explicit analysis of the intrinsic repeatability properties of a texture. In contrast, our TexTile metric effectively evaluates the tileable properties of a texture, opening the door to more informed synthesis and analysis of tileable textures. Under the hood, TexTile is formulated as a binary classifier carefully built from a large dataset of textures of different styles, semantics, regularities, and human annotations.Key to our method is a set of architectural modifications to baseline pre-train image classifiers to overcome their shortcomings at measuring tileability, along with a custom data augmentation and training regime aimed at increasing robustness and accuracy. We demonstrate that TexTile can be plugged into different state-of-the-art texture synthesis methods, including diffusion-based strategies, and generate tileable textures while keeping or even improving the overall texture quality. Furthermore, we show that TexTile can objectively evaluate any tileable texture synthesis method, whereas the current mix of existing metrics produces uncorrelated scores which heavily hinders progress in the field.

We present TerraMind, the first any-to-any generative, multimodal foundation model for Earth observation (EO). Unlike other multimodal models, TerraMind is pretrained on dual-scale representations combining both token-level and pixel-level data across modalities. On a token level, TerraMind encodes high-level contextual information to learn cross-modal relationships, while on a pixel level, TerraMind leverages fine-grained representations to capture critical spatial nuances. We pretrained TerraMind on nine geospatial modalities of a global, large-scale dataset. In this paper, we demonstrate that (i) TerraMind's dual-scale early fusion approach unlocks a range of zero-shot and few-shot applications for Earth observation, (ii) TerraMind introduces "Thinking-in-Modalities" (TiM) -- the capability of generating additional artificial data during finetuning and inference to improve the model output -- and (iii) TerraMind achieves beyond state-of-the-art performance in community-standard benchmarks for EO like PANGAEA. The pretraining dataset, the model weights, and our code is open-sourced under a permissive license.