Daily Papers

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has been an effective approach for improving Large Language Models' reasoning in domains such as coding and mathematics. Here, we apply RLVR methods towards forecasting future real-world events - a challenging task for RL due to the very noisy (and delayed) outcomes involved. Using a novel dataset of recent questions from a prediction market, and accompanying relevant news headlines, we show that a compact (14B) reasoning model can be trained to match or surpass the predictive accuracy of frontier models like o1, while greatly improving probabilistic calibration. The model's performance is also practically meaningful: in a Polymarket trading simulation, we estimate that its bets would have yielded a return on investment of over 10% across all questions in the test set. We detail and compare approaches used in training our model, including augmenting our training-data with synthetic prediction questions, guardrails for learning stability, and median prediction sampling at inference-time.

The integration of knowledge graphs with deep learning is thriving in improving the performance of various natural language processing (NLP) tasks. In this paper, we focus on knowledge-infused link prediction and question answering using language models, T5, and BLOOM across three domains: Aviation, Movie, and Web. In this context, we infuse knowledge in large and small language models and study their performance, and find the performance to be similar. For the link prediction task on the Aviation Knowledge Graph, we obtain a 0.2 hits@1 score using T5-small, T5-base, T5-large, and BLOOM. Using template-based scripts, we create a set of 1 million synthetic factoid QA pairs in the aviation domain from National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports. On our curated QA pairs, the three models of T5 achieve a 0.7 hits@1 score. We validate out findings with the paired student t-test and Cohen's kappa scores. For link prediction on Aviation Knowledge Graph using T5-small and T5-large, we obtain a Cohen's kappa score of 0.76, showing substantial agreement between the models. Thus, we infer that small language models perform similar to large language models with the infusion of knowledge.

Query-document relevance prediction is a critical problem in Information Retrieval systems. This problem has increasingly been tackled using (pretrained) transformer-based models which are finetuned using large collections of labeled data. However, in specialized domains such as e-commerce and healthcare, the viability of this approach is limited by the dearth of large in-domain data. To address this paucity, recent methods leverage these powerful models to generate high-quality task and domain-specific synthetic data. Prior work has largely explored synthetic data generation or query generation (QGen) for Question-Answering (QA) and binary (yes/no) relevance prediction, where for instance, the QGen models are given a document, and trained to generate a query relevant to that document. However in many problems, we have a more fine-grained notion of relevance than a simple yes/no label. Thus, in this work, we conduct a detailed study into how QGen approaches can be leveraged for nuanced relevance prediction. We demonstrate that -- contrary to claims from prior works -- current QGen approaches fall short of the more conventional cross-domain transfer-learning approaches. Via empirical studies spanning 3 public e-commerce benchmarks, we identify new shortcomings of existing QGen approaches -- including their inability to distinguish between different grades of relevance. To address this, we introduce label-conditioned QGen models which incorporates knowledge about the different relevance. While our experiments demonstrate that these modifications help improve performance of QGen techniques, we also find that QGen approaches struggle to capture the full nuance of the relevance label space and as a result the generated queries are not faithful to the desired relevance label.

We introduce Synthetic Visual Genome 2 (SVG2), a large-scale panoptic video scene graph dataset. SVG2 contains over 636K videos with 6.6M objects, 52.0M attributes, and 6.7M relations, providing an order-of-magnitude increase in scale and diversity over prior spatio-temporal scene graph datasets. To create SVG2, we design a fully automated pipeline that combines multi-scale panoptic segmentation, online-offline trajectory tracking with automatic new-object discovery, per-trajectory semantic parsing, and GPT-5-based spatio-temporal relation inference. Building on this resource, we train TRaSER, a video scene graph generation model. TRaSER augments VLMs with a trajectory-aligned token arrangement mechanism and new modules: an object-trajectory resampler and a temporal-window resampler to convert raw videos and panoptic trajectories into compact spatio-temporal scene graphs in a single forward pass. The temporal-window resampler binds visual tokens to short trajectory segments to preserve local motion and temporal semantics, while the object-trajectory resampler aggregates entire trajectories to maintain global context for objects. On the PVSG, VIPSeg, VidOR and SVG2 test datasets, TRaSER improves relation detection by +15 to 20%, object prediction by +30 to 40% over the strongest open-source baselines and by +13% over GPT-5, and attribute prediction by +15%. When TRaSER's generated scene graphs are sent to a VLM for video question answering, it delivers a +1.5 to 4.6% absolute accuracy gain over using video only or video augmented with Qwen2.5-VL's generated scene graphs, demonstrating the utility of explicit spatio-temporal scene graphs as an intermediate representation.

Modern foundational Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) and video world models have advanced significantly in mathematical, common-sense, and visual reasoning, but their grasp of the underlying physics remains underexplored. Existing benchmarks attempting to measure this matter rely on synthetic, Visual Question Answer templates or focus on perceptual video quality that is tangential to measuring how well the video abides by physical laws. To address this fragmentation, we introduce PhysicsMind, a unified benchmark with both real and simulation environments that evaluates law-consistent reasoning and generation over three canonical principles: Center of Mass, Lever Equilibrium, and Newton's First Law. PhysicsMind comprises two main tasks: i) VQA tasks, testing whether models can reason and determine physical quantities and values from images or short videos, and ii) Video Generation(VG) tasks, evaluating if predicted motion trajectories obey the same center-of-mass, torque, and inertial constraints as the ground truth. A broad range of recent models and video generation models is evaluated on PhysicsMind and found to rely on appearance heuristics while often violating basic mechanics. These gaps indicate that current scaling and training are still insufficient for robust physical understanding, underscoring PhysicsMind as a focused testbed for physics-aware multimodal models. Our data will be released upon acceptance.

To enhance large language models (LLMs) for chemistry problem solving, several LLM-based agents augmented with tools have been proposed, such as ChemCrow and Coscientist. However, their evaluations are narrow in scope, leaving a large gap in understanding the benefits of tools across diverse chemistry tasks. To bridge this gap, we develop ChemAgent, an enhanced chemistry agent over ChemCrow, and conduct a comprehensive evaluation of its performance on both specialized chemistry tasks and general chemistry questions. Surprisingly, ChemAgent does not consistently outperform its base LLMs without tools. Our error analysis with a chemistry expert suggests that: For specialized chemistry tasks, such as synthesis prediction, we should augment agents with specialized tools; however, for general chemistry questions like those in exams, agents' ability to reason correctly with chemistry knowledge matters more, and tool augmentation does not always help.

Synthetic data has been proposed as a solution to address the issue of high-quality data scarcity in the training of large language models (LLMs). Studies have shown that synthetic data can effectively improve the performance of LLMs on downstream benchmarks. However, despite its potential benefits, our analysis suggests that there may be inherent flaws in synthetic data. The uniform format of synthetic data can lead to pattern overfitting and cause significant shifts in the output distribution, thereby reducing the model's instruction-following capabilities. Our work delves into these specific flaws associated with question-answer (Q-A) pairs, a prevalent type of synthetic data, and presents a method based on unlearning techniques to mitigate these flaws. The empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which can reverse the instruction-following issues caused by pattern overfitting without compromising performance on benchmarks at relatively low cost. Our work has yielded key insights into the effective use of synthetic data, aiming to promote more robust and efficient LLM training.

Vision-langugage models (VLMs) have shown strong performance in computer vision (CV), yet their performance on remote sensing (RS) data remains limited due to the lack of large-scale, multi-sensor RS image-text datasets with diverse textual annotations. Existing datasets predominantly include aerial Red-Green-Blue imagery, with short or weakly grounded captions, and provide limited diversity in annotation types. To address this limitation, we introduce BigEarthNet.txt, a large-scale, multi-sensor image-text dataset designed to advance instruction-driven image-text learning in Earth observation across multiple tasks. BigEarthNet.txt contains 464044 co-registered Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar and Sentinel-2 multispectral images with 9.6M text annotations, including: i) geographically anchored captions describing land-use/land-cover (LULC) classes, their spatial relations, and environmental context; ii) visual question answering pairs relevant for different tasks; and iii) referring expression detection instructions for bounding box prediction. Through a comparative statistical analysis, we demonstrate that BigEarthNet.txt surpasses existing RS image-text datasets in textual richness and annotation type variety. We further establish a manually-verified benchmark split to evaluate VLMs in RS and CV. The results show the limitations of these models on tasks that involve complex LULC classes, whereas fine-tuning using BigEarthNet.txt results in consistent performance gains across all considered tasks.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful way to adapt foundation models to specialized tasks, but its reliance on large-scale human-labeled data limits broad adoption. We introduce Synthetic Data RL, a simple and general framework that reinforcement fine-tunes models using only synthetic data generated from a task definition. Our method first generates question and answer pairs from the task definition and retrieved documents, then adapts the difficulty of the question based on model solvability, and selects questions using the average pass rate of the model across samples for RL training. On Qwen-2.5-7B, our method achieves a 29.2% absolute improvement over the base model on GSM8K (+2.9 pp vs. instruction-tuned, +6.6 pp vs. Self-Instruct), 8.7% on MATH, 13.1% on GPQA (+7.0 pp vs. SynthLLM), 8.9% on MedQA, 17.7% on CQA (law) and 13.7% on CFA (finance). It surpasses supervised fine-tuning under the same data budget and nearly matches RL with full human data across datasets (e.g., +17.2 pp on GSM8K). Adding 100 human demonstrations improves the performance of GSM8K only by 0.4 pp, showing a limited added value. By reducing human data annotation, Synthetic Data RL enables scalable and efficient RL-based model adaptation. Code and demos are available at https://github.com/gydpku/Data_Synthesis_RL/.

We investigate whether synthetic question-answer (QA) data generated by large language models (LLMs) can serve as an effective proxy for human-labeled benchmarks when such data is unavailable. We assess the reliability of synthetic benchmarks across two experiments: one varying retriever parameters while keeping the generator fixed, and another varying the generator with fixed retriever parameters. Across four datasets, of which two open-domain and two proprietary, we find that synthetic benchmarks reliably rank the RAGs varying in terms of retriever configuration, aligning well with human-labeled benchmark baselines. However, they fail to produce consistent RAG rankings when comparing generator architectures. The breakdown possibly arises from a combination of task mismatch between the synthetic and human benchmarks, and stylistic bias favoring certain generators.

A common and effective means for improving language model capabilities involves finetuning a ``student'' language model's parameters on generations from a more proficient ``teacher'' model. Termed ``synthetic data'', these generations are often produced before any student finetuning, but some work has considered generating new synthetic samples as training progresses. This paper studies and advocates for the latter case, where data are generated in an iterative, closed-loop fashion that is guided by the current state of the student model. For a fixed budget of generated samples, or a budget in terms of compute spent querying a teacher, we show that this curation of finetuning data affords improved student performance over static generation. Further, while there have been several LLM-specific methods proposed that operate in this regime, we find that simple, inexpensive selection criteria from the active learning literature tend to be most performant. We validate these claims across four mathematical and logical reasoning datasets using four different small language models.

The success of AI models relies on the availability of large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which can be challenging to obtain due to data scarcity, privacy concerns, and high costs. Synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution by generating artificial data that mimics real-world patterns. This paper provides an overview of synthetic data research, discussing its applications, challenges, and future directions. We present empirical evidence from prior art to demonstrate its effectiveness and highlight the importance of ensuring its factuality, fidelity, and unbiasedness. We emphasize the need for responsible use of synthetic data to build more powerful, inclusive, and trustworthy language models.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Despite rapid advancements in large language models (LLMs), QG remains a challenging problem due to its complicated process, open-ended nature, and the diverse settings in which question generation occurs. A common approach to address these challenges involves fine-tuning smaller, custom models using datasets containing background context, question, and answer. However, obtaining suitable domain-specific datasets with appropriate context is often more difficult than acquiring question-answer pairs. In this paper, we investigate training QG models using synthetic contexts generated by LLMs from readily available question-answer pairs. We conduct a comprehensive study to answer critical research questions related to the performance of models trained on synthetic contexts and their potential impact on QG research and applications. Our empirical results reveal: 1) contexts are essential for QG tasks, even if they are synthetic; 2) fine-tuning smaller language models has the capability of achieving better performances as compared to prompting larger language models; and 3) synthetic context and real context could achieve comparable performances. These findings highlight the effectiveness of synthetic contexts in QG and paves the way for future advancements in the field.

Sensitivity to false assumptions (or false premises) in information-seeking questions is critical for robust question-answering (QA) systems. Recent work has shown that false assumptions in naturally occurring questions pose challenges to current models, with low performance on both generative QA and simple detection tasks (Kim et al. 2023). However, the focus of existing work on naturally occurring questions leads to a gap in the analysis of model behavior on the long tail of the distribution of possible questions. To this end, we introduce Syn-(QA)^2, a set of two synthetically generated QA datasets: one generated using perturbed relations from Wikidata, and the other by perturbing HotpotQA (Yang et al. 2018). Our findings from evaluating a range of large language models are threefold: (1) false assumptions in QA are challenging, echoing the findings of prior work, (2) the binary detection task is challenging even compared to the difficulty of generative QA itself, possibly due to the linguistic structure of the problem, and (3) the detection task is more challenging with long-tail questions compared to naturally occurring questions, highlighting the utility of our synthetic datasets and generation method.

We study whether language models can evaluate the validity of their own claims and predict which questions they will be able to answer correctly. We first show that larger models are well-calibrated on diverse multiple choice and true/false questions when they are provided in the right format. Thus we can approach self-evaluation on open-ended sampling tasks by asking models to first propose answers, and then to evaluate the probability "P(True)" that their answers are correct. We find encouraging performance, calibration, and scaling for P(True) on a diverse array of tasks. Performance at self-evaluation further improves when we allow models to consider many of their own samples before predicting the validity of one specific possibility. Next, we investigate whether models can be trained to predict "P(IK)", the probability that "I know" the answer to a question, without reference to any particular proposed answer. Models perform well at predicting P(IK) and partially generalize across tasks, though they struggle with calibration of P(IK) on new tasks. The predicted P(IK) probabilities also increase appropriately in the presence of relevant source materials in the context, and in the presence of hints towards the solution of mathematical word problems. We hope these observations lay the groundwork for training more honest models, and for investigating how honesty generalizes to cases where models are trained on objectives other than the imitation of human writing.

Recent text-to-image generation models have shown promising results in generating high-fidelity photo-realistic images. Though the results are astonishing to human eyes, how applicable these generated images are for recognition tasks remains under-explored. In this work, we extensively study whether and how synthetic images generated from state-of-the-art text-to-image generation models can be used for image recognition tasks, and focus on two perspectives: synthetic data for improving classification models in data-scarce settings (i.e. zero-shot and few-shot), and synthetic data for large-scale model pre-training for transfer learning. We showcase the powerfulness and shortcomings of synthetic data from existing generative models, and propose strategies for better applying synthetic data for recognition tasks. Code: https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/SyntheticData.

Question answering (QA) models often rely on large-scale training datasets, which necessitates the development of a data generation framework to reduce the cost of manual annotations. Although several recent studies have aimed to generate synthetic questions with single-span answers, no study has been conducted on the creation of list questions with multiple, non-contiguous spans as answers. To address this gap, we propose LIQUID, an automated framework for generating list QA datasets from unlabeled corpora. We first convert a passage from Wikipedia or PubMed into a summary and extract named entities from the summarized text as candidate answers. This allows us to select answers that are semantically correlated in context and is, therefore, suitable for constructing list questions. We then create questions using an off-the-shelf question generator with the extracted entities and original passage. Finally, iterative filtering and answer expansion are performed to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the answers. Using our synthetic data, we significantly improve the performance of the previous best list QA models by exact-match F1 scores of 5.0 on MultiSpanQA, 1.9 on Quoref, and 2.8 averaged across three BioASQ benchmarks.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

With the advent of AI agents, automatic scientific discovery has become a tenable goal. Many recent works scaffold agentic systems that can perform machine learning research, but don't offer a principled way to train such agents -- and current LLMs often generate plausible-looking but ineffective ideas. To make progress on training agents that can learn from doing, we provide a novel synthetic environment generation pipeline targeting machine learning agents. Our pipeline automatically synthesizes machine learning challenges compatible with the SWE-agent framework, covering topic sampling, dataset proposal, and code generation. The resulting synthetic tasks are 1) grounded in real machine learning datasets, because the proposed datasets are verified against the Huggingface API and are 2) verified for higher quality with a self-debugging loop. To validate the effectiveness of our synthetic tasks, we tackle MLGym, a benchmark for machine learning tasks. From the synthetic tasks, we sample trajectories from a teacher model (GPT-5), then use the trajectories to train a student model (Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B). The student models trained with our synthetic tasks achieve improved performance on MLGym, raising the AUP metric by 9% for Qwen3-4B and 12% for Qwen3-8B.

The collection and curation of high-quality training data is crucial for developing text classification models with superior performance, but it is often associated with significant costs and time investment. Researchers have recently explored using large language models (LLMs) to generate synthetic datasets as an alternative approach. However, the effectiveness of the LLM-generated synthetic data in supporting model training is inconsistent across different classification tasks. To better understand factors that moderate the effectiveness of the LLM-generated synthetic data, in this study, we look into how the performance of models trained on these synthetic data may vary with the subjectivity of classification. Our results indicate that subjectivity, at both the task level and instance level, is negatively associated with the performance of the model trained on synthetic data. We conclude by discussing the implications of our work on the potential and limitations of leveraging LLM for synthetic data generation.

Recent improvements in synthetic data generation make it possible to produce images that are highly photorealistic and indistinguishable from real ones. Furthermore, synthetic generation pipelines have the potential to generate an unlimited number of images. The combination of high photorealism and scale turn the synthetic data into a promising candidate for potentially improving various machine learning (ML) pipelines. Thus far, a large body of research in this field has focused on using synthetic images for training, by augmenting and enlarging training data. In contrast to using synthetic data for training, in this work we explore whether synthetic data can be beneficial for model selection. Considering the task of image classification, we demonstrate that when data is scarce, synthetic data can be used to replace the held out validation set, thus allowing to train on a larger dataset.

The industry is rich in cases when we are required to make forecasting for large amounts of time series at once. However, we might be in a situation where we can not afford to train a separate model for each of them. Such issue in time series modeling remains without due attention. The remedy for this setting is the establishment of a foundation model. Such a model is expected to work in zero-shot and few-shot regimes. However, what should we take as a training dataset for such kind of model? Witnessing the benefits from the enrichment of NLP datasets with artificially-generated data, we might want to adopt their experience for time series. In contrast to natural language, the process of generation of synthetic time series data is even more favorable because it provides full control of series patterns, time horizons, and number of samples. In this work, we consider the essential question if it is advantageous to train a foundation model on synthetic data or it is better to utilize only a limited number of real-life examples. Our experiments are conducted only for regular time series and speak in favor of leveraging solely the real time series. Moreover, the choice of the proper source dataset strongly influences the performance during inference. When provided access even to a limited quantity of short time series data, employing it within a supervised framework yields more favorable results than training on a larger volume of synthetic data. The code for our experiments is publicly available on Github https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/synthesize_or_not.

We investigate the use of randomly generated data for the sake of pre-training a model. We justify this approach theoretically from the perspective of algorithmic complexity, building on recent research that shows that sequence models can be trained to approximate Solomonoff induction. We derive similar, but complementary theoretical results. We show empirically that synthetically generated data can be used to pre-train a model before the data is seen. We replicate earlier results that models trained this way show zero-shot in-context learning across a variety of datasets, and that this performance improves with scale. We extend earlier results to real-world data, and show that finetuning a model after pre-training offers faster convergence and better generalization.

Faced with an expensive human annotation process, creators of NLP systems increasingly turn to synthetic data generation. While this method shows promise, the extent to which synthetic data can replace human annotation is poorly understood. We investigate the use of synthetic data in Fact Verification (FV) and Question Answering (QA) by studying the effects of incrementally replacing human generated data with synthetic points on eight diverse datasets. Strikingly, replacing up to 90% of the training data only marginally decreases performance, but replacing the final 10% leads to severe declines. We find that models trained on purely synthetic data can be reliably improved by including as few as 125 human generated data points. We show that matching the performance gain of just a little additional human data (only 200 points) requires an order of magnitude more synthetic data and estimate price ratios at which human annotation would be a more cost-effective solution. Our results suggest that even when human annotation at scale is infeasible, there is great value to having a small proportion of the dataset being human generated.

Generative models such as Large Language Models, Diffusion Models, and generative adversarial networks have recently revolutionized the creation of synthetic data, offering scalable solutions to data scarcity, privacy, and annotation challenges in data mining. This tutorial introduces the foundations and latest advances in synthetic data generation, covers key methodologies and practical frameworks, and discusses evaluation strategies and applications. Attendees will gain actionable insights into leveraging generative synthetic data to enhance data mining research and practice. More information can be found on our website: https://syndata4dm.github.io/.

Visual recognition models are prone to learning spurious correlations induced by a biased training set where certain conditions B (\eg, Indoors) are over-represented in certain classes Y (\eg, Big Dogs). Synthetic data from off-the-shelf large-scale generative models offers a promising direction to mitigate this issue by augmenting underrepresented subgroups in the real dataset. However, by using a mixed distribution of real and synthetic data, we introduce another source of bias due to distributional differences between synthetic and real data (\eg synthetic artifacts). As we will show, prior work's approach for using synthetic data to resolve the model's bias toward B do not correct the model's bias toward the pair (B, G), where G denotes whether the sample is real or synthetic. Thus, the model could simply learn signals based on the pair (B, G) (\eg, Synthetic Indoors) to make predictions about Y (\eg, Big Dogs). To address this issue, we propose a simple, easy-to-implement, two-step training pipeline that we call From Fake to Real (FFR). The first step of FFR pre-trains a model on balanced synthetic data to learn robust representations across subgroups. In the second step, FFR fine-tunes the model on real data using ERM or common loss-based bias mitigation methods. By training on real and synthetic data separately, FFR does not expose the model to the statistical differences between real and synthetic data and thus avoids the issue of bias toward the pair (B, G). Our experiments show that FFR improves worst group accuracy over the state-of-the-art by up to 20\% over three datasets. Code available: https://github.com/mqraitem/From-Fake-to-Real

Synthetic data generated by large language models has become integral to modern NLP training pipelines, from bootstrapping reasoning capabilities to augmenting instruction-following datasets. While recent work demonstrates successful applications maintaining high external data ratios, systematic understanding of how synthetic data proportion affects model behavior across different scales remains limited. This paper presents a controlled empirical study examining model performance, calibration, and output characteristics when trained on varying synthetic-to-external data ratios. Using the Pythia model suite (410M-12B parameters) across five diverse tasks, we evaluate models after one to three training iterations with synthetic data proportions ranging from 0-50\%. Our key findings include: models maintain stable performance with up to 20\% synthetic data, but degradation accelerates beyond 30\%; larger models (6.9B-12B) show greater robustness to synthetic data than smaller models (410M-1.4B); calibration degradation precedes accuracy loss, providing an early warning signal; and task characteristics matter, with reasoning tasks degrading faster than retrieval tasks under synthetic data training. Importantly, we find that current best practices, such as those employed in STaR and Self-Instruct systems that maintain greater than 80\% external data, operate well within safe regimes identified by our experiments. We provide practical guidance for practitioners on synthetic data budgets based on model scale and task requirements, alongside detailed comparison with concurrent work including Shumailov et al.'s model collapse findings.

As large language models (LLMs) are applied to more use cases, creating high quality, task-specific datasets for fine-tuning becomes a bottleneck for model improvement. Using high quality human data has been the most common approach to unlock model performance, but is prohibitively expensive in many scenarios. Several alternative methods have also emerged, such as generating synthetic or hybrid data, but the effectiveness of these approaches remain unclear, especially in resource-constrained scenarios and tasks that are not easily verified. To investigate this, we group various synthetic data generation strategies into three representative categories -- Answer Augmentation, Question Rephrase and New Question -- and study the performance of student LLMs trained under various constraints, namely seed instruction set size and query budget. We demonstrate that these strategies are not equally effective across settings. Notably, the optimal data generation strategy depends strongly on the ratio between the available teacher query budget and the size of the seed instruction set. When this ratio is low, generating new answers to existing questions proves most effective, but as this ratio increases, generating new questions becomes optimal. Across all tasks, we find that choice of augmentation method and other design choices matter substantially more in low to mid data regimes than in high data regimes. We provide a practical framework for selecting the appropriate augmentation method across settings, taking into account additional factors such as the scalability of each method, the importance of verifying synthetic data, and the use of different LLMs for synthetic data generation.

We have witnessed remarkable advances in LLM reasoning capabilities with the advent of DeepSeek-R1. However, much of this progress has been fueled by the abundance of internet question-answer (QA) pairs, a major bottleneck going forward, since such data is limited in scale and concentrated mainly in domains like mathematics. In contrast, other sciences such as physics lack large-scale QA datasets to effectively train reasoning-capable models. In this work, we show that physics simulators can serve as a powerful alternative source of supervision for training LLMs for physical reasoning. We generate random scenes in physics engines, create synthetic question-answer pairs from simulated interactions, and train LLMs using reinforcement learning on this synthetic data. Our models exhibit zero-shot sim-to-real transfer to real-world physics benchmarks: for example, training solely on synthetic simulated data improves performance on IPhO (International Physics Olympiad) problems by 5-10 percentage points across model sizes. These results demonstrate that physics simulators can act as scalable data generators, enabling LLMs to acquire deep physical reasoning skills beyond the limitations of internet-scale QA data. Code available at: https://sim2reason.github.io/.

Generating synthetic data through generative models is gaining interest in the ML community and beyond, promising a future where datasets can be tailored to individual needs. Unfortunately, synthetic data is usually not perfect, resulting in potential errors in downstream tasks. In this work we explore how the generative process affects the downstream ML task. We show that the naive synthetic data approach -- using synthetic data as if it is real -- leads to downstream models and analyses that do not generalize well to real data. As a first step towards better ML in the synthetic data regime, we introduce Deep Generative Ensemble (DGE) -- a framework inspired by Deep Ensembles that aims to implicitly approximate the posterior distribution over the generative process model parameters. DGE improves downstream model training, evaluation, and uncertainty quantification, vastly outperforming the naive approach on average. The largest improvements are achieved for minority classes and low-density regions of the original data, for which the generative uncertainty is largest.

Recent advances in large language model (LLM) training have highlighted the need for diverse, high-quality instruction data. Recently, many works are exploring synthetic data generation using LLMs. However, they primarily focus on prompt engineering with standard supervised instruction-finetuned models, which contains a fundamental limitation: these models are optimized for general question-answering/problem-solving rather than data generation. We propose a paradigm shift named NOMAD by investigating how to specifically train models for data generation, demonstrating that this task differs significantly from training a classical LM. We identify two key factors: no-prompt-masked training and proper training set size selection. Our method, NOMAD, shows substantial improvements over baselines, achieving >4\% gains in TriviaQA and >2\% in GSM8K with limited training data. Finally, we offer new insights by interpreting synthetic data through the lenses of "relevance" and "novelty".

Synthetic data generation has gained significant attention recently for its utility in training large vision and language models. However, the application of synthetic data to the training of multimodal context-augmented generation systems has been relatively unexplored. This gap in existing work is important because existing vision and language models (VLMs) are not trained specifically for context-augmented generation. Resources for adapting such models are therefore crucial for enabling their use in retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) settings, where a retriever is used to gather relevant information that is then subsequently provided to a generative model via context augmentation. To address this challenging problem, we generate SK-VQA: a large synthetic multimodal dataset containing over 2 million question-answer pairs which require external knowledge to determine the final answer. Our dataset is both larger and significantly more diverse than existing resources of its kind, possessing over 11x more unique questions and containing images from a greater variety of sources than previously-proposed datasets. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our synthetic dataset can not only serve as a challenging benchmark, but is also highly effective for adapting existing generative multimodal models for context-augmented generation.

Large language models (LLMs) can be leveraged to help with writing formulas in spreadsheets, but resources on these formulas are scarce, impacting both the base performance of pre-trained models and limiting the ability to fine-tune them. Given a corpus of formulas, we can use a(nother) model to generate synthetic natural language utterances for fine-tuning. However, it is important to validate whether the NL generated by the LLM is indeed accurate to be beneficial for fine-tuning. In this paper, we provide empirical results on the impact of validating these synthetic training examples with surrogate objectives that evaluate the accuracy of the synthetic annotations. We demonstrate that validation improves performance over raw data across four models (2 open and 2 closed weight). Interestingly, we show that although validation tends to prune more challenging examples, it increases the complexity of problems that models can solve after being fine-tuned on validated data.

This paper presents a simple and cost-effective method for synthesizing data to train question-answering systems. For training, fine-tuning GPT models is a common practice in resource-rich languages like English, however, it becomes challenging for non-English languages due to the scarcity of sufficient question-answer (QA) pairs. Existing approaches use question and answer generators trained on human-authored QA pairs, which involves substantial human expenses. In contrast, we use an instruct-tuned model to generate QA pairs in a zero-shot or few-shot manner. We conduct experiments to compare various strategies for obtaining QA pairs from the instruct-tuned model. The results demonstrate that a model trained on our proposed synthetic data achieves comparable performance to a model trained on manually curated datasets, without incurring human costs.

Recent advances in large language model (LLM) pretraining have shown that simply scaling data quantity eventually leads to diminishing returns, hitting a data wall. In response, the use of synthetic data for pretraining has emerged as a promising paradigm for pushing the frontier of performance. Despite this, the factors affecting synthetic data quality remain poorly understood. In this work, we introduce BeyondWeb, a synthetic data generation framework that produces high-quality synthetic data for pretraining. BeyondWeb significantly extends the capabilities of traditional web-scale datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art synthetic pretraining datasets such as Cosmopedia and Nemotron-CC's high-quality synthetic subset (Nemotron-Synth) by up to 5.1 percentage points (pp) and 2.6pp, respectively, when averaged across a suite of 14 benchmark evaluations. It delivers up to 7.7x faster training than open web data and 2.7x faster than Nemotron-Synth. Remarkably, a 3B model trained for 180B tokens on BeyondWeb outperforms an 8B model trained for the same token budget on Cosmopedia. We also present several insights from BeyondWeb on synthetic data for pretraining: what drives its benefits, which data to rephrase and how, and the impact of model size and family on data quality. Overall, our work shows that there's no silver bullet for generating high-quality synthetic pretraining data. The best outcomes require jointly optimizing many factors, a challenging task that requires rigorous science and practical expertise. Naive approaches can yield modest improvements, potentially at great cost, while well-executed methods can yield transformative improvements, as exemplified by BeyondWeb.

As synthetic data becomes higher quality and proliferates on the internet, machine learning models are increasingly trained on a mix of human- and machine-generated data. Despite the successful stories of using synthetic data for representation learning, using synthetic data for generative model training creates "self-consuming loops" which may lead to training instability or even collapse, unless certain conditions are met. Our paper aims to stabilize self-consuming generative model training. Our theoretical results demonstrate that by introducing an idealized correction function, which maps a data point to be more likely under the true data distribution, self-consuming loops can be made exponentially more stable. We then propose self-correction functions, which rely on expert knowledge (e.g. the laws of physics programmed in a simulator), and aim to approximate the idealized corrector automatically and at scale. We empirically validate the effectiveness of self-correcting self-consuming loops on the challenging human motion synthesis task, and observe that it successfully avoids model collapse, even when the ratio of synthetic data to real data is as high as 100%.

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) is inherently linked to the availability of vast, diverse, and high-quality data for training and evaluation. However, the growth rate of high-quality data is significantly outpaced by the expansion of training datasets, leading to a looming data exhaustion crisis. This underscores the urgent need to enhance data efficiency and explore new data sources. In this context, synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution. Currently, data generation primarily consists of two major approaches: data augmentation and synthesis. This paper comprehensively reviews and summarizes data generation techniques throughout the lifecycle of LLMs, including data preparation, pre-training, fine-tuning, instruction-tuning, preference alignment, and applications. Furthermore, We discuss the current constraints faced by these methods and investigate potential pathways for future development and research. Our aspiration is to equip researchers with a clear understanding of these methodologies, enabling them to swiftly identify appropriate data generation strategies in the construction of LLMs, while providing valuable insights for future exploration.

Model collapse in synthetic data indicates that iterative training on self-generated data leads to a gradual decline in performance. With the proliferation of AI models, synthetic data will fundamentally reshape the web data ecosystem. Future GPT-{n} models will inevitably be trained on a blend of synthetic and human-produced data. In this paper, we focus on two questions: what is the impact of synthetic data on language model training, and how to synthesize data without model collapse? We first pre-train language models across different proportions of synthetic data, revealing a negative correlation between the proportion of synthetic data and model performance. We further conduct statistical analysis on synthetic data to uncover distributional shift phenomenon and over-concentration of n-gram features. Inspired by the above findings, we propose token editing on human-produced data to obtain semi-synthetic data. As a proof of concept, we theoretically demonstrate that token-level editing can prevent model collapse, as the test error is constrained by a finite upper bound. We conduct extensive experiments on pre-training from scratch, continual pre-training, and supervised fine-tuning. The results validate our theoretical proof that token-level editing improves data quality and enhances model performance.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across diverse tasks, largely driven by high-quality web data used in pre-training. However, recent studies indicate this data source is rapidly depleting. Synthetic data emerges as a promising alternative, but it remains unclear whether synthetic datasets exhibit predictable scalability comparable to raw pre-training data. In this work, we systematically investigate the scaling laws of synthetic data by introducing SynthLLM, a scalable framework that transforms pre-training corpora into diverse, high-quality synthetic datasets. Our approach achieves this by automatically extracting and recombining high-level concepts across multiple documents using a graph algorithm. Key findings from our extensive mathematical experiments on SynthLLM include: (1) SynthLLM generates synthetic data that reliably adheres to the rectified scaling law across various model sizes; (2) Performance improvements plateau near 300B tokens; and (3) Larger models approach optimal performance with fewer training tokens. For instance, an 8B model peaks at 1T tokens, while a 3B model requires 4T. Moreover, comparisons with existing synthetic data generation and augmentation methods demonstrate that SynthLLM achieves superior performance and scalability. Our findings highlight synthetic data as a scalable and reliable alternative to organic pre-training corpora, offering a viable path toward continued improvement in model performance.

Due to limited supervised training data, large language models (LLMs) are typically pre-trained via a self-supervised "predict the next word" objective on a vast amount of unstructured text data. To make the resulting model useful to users, it is further trained on a far smaller amount of "instruction-tuning" data comprised of supervised training examples of instructions and responses. To overcome the limited amount of supervised data, we propose a procedure that can transform the knowledge in internet-scale pre-training documents into billions of synthetic instruction and answer training pairs. The resulting dataset, called FineInstructions, uses ~18M instruction templates created from real user-written queries and prompts. These instruction templates are matched to and instantiated with human-written source documents from unstructured pre-training corpora. With "supervised" synthetic training data generated at this scale, an LLM can be pre-trained from scratch solely with the instruction-tuning objective, which is far more in-distribution with the expected downstream usage of LLMs (responding to user prompts). We conduct controlled token-for-token training experiments and find pre-training on FineInstructions outperforms standard pre-training and other proposed synthetic pre-training techniques on standard benchmarks measuring free-form response quality. Our resources can be found at https://huggingface.co/fineinstructions .

Synthetic data is a standard component in training large language models, yet systematic comparisons across design dimensions, including rephrasing strategy, generator model, and source data, remain absent. We conduct extensive controlled experiments, generating over one trillion tokens, to identify critical factors in rephrasing web text into synthetic pretraining data. Our results reveal that structured output formats, such as tables, math problems, FAQs, and tutorials, consistently outperform both curated web baselines and prior synthetic methods. Notably, increasing the size of the generator model beyond 1B parameters provides no additional benefit. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of the original data used for mixing substantially influences performance. By applying our findings, we develop \textsc{FinePhrase}, a 486-billion-token open dataset of rephrased web text. We show that FinePhrase outperforms all existing synthetic data baselines while reducing generation costs by up to 30 times. We provide the dataset, all prompts, and the generation framework to the research community.

The recent surge in research focused on generating synthetic data from large language models (LLMs), especially for scenarios with limited data availability, marks a notable shift in Generative Artificial Intelligence (AI). Their ability to perform comparably to real-world data positions this approach as a compelling solution to low-resource challenges. This paper delves into advanced technologies that leverage these gigantic LLMs for the generation of task-specific training data. We outline methodologies, evaluation techniques, and practical applications, discuss the current limitations, and suggest potential pathways for future research.

Generative text-to-image models enable us to synthesize unlimited amounts of images in a controllable manner, spurring many recent efforts to train vision models with synthetic data. However, every synthetic image ultimately originates from the upstream data used to train the generator. What additional value does the intermediate generator provide over directly training on relevant parts of the upstream data? Grounding this question in the setting of image classification,a we compare finetuning on task-relevant, targeted synthetic data generated by Stable Diffusion -- a generative model trained on the LAION-2B dataset -- against finetuning on targeted real images retrieved directly from LAION-2B. We show that while synthetic data can benefit some downstream tasks, it is universally matched or outperformed by real data from our simple retrieval baseline. Our analysis suggests that this underperformance is partially due to generator artifacts and inaccurate task-relevant visual details in the synthetic images. Overall, we argue that retrieval is a critical baseline to consider when training with synthetic data -- a baseline that current methods do not yet surpass. We release code, data, and models at https://github.com/scottgeng00/unmet-promise.

Training on model-generated synthetic data is a promising approach for finetuning LLMs, but it remains unclear when it helps or hurts. In this paper, we investigate this question for math reasoning via an empirical study, followed by building a conceptual understanding of our observations. First, we find that while the typical approach of finetuning a model on synthetic correct or positive problem-solution pairs generated by capable models offers modest performance gains, sampling more correct solutions from the finetuned learner itself followed by subsequent fine-tuning on this self-generated data doubles the efficiency of the same synthetic problems. At the same time, training on model-generated positives can amplify various spurious correlations, resulting in flat or even inverse scaling trends as the amount of data increases. Surprisingly, we find that several of these issues can be addressed if we also utilize negative responses, i.e., model-generated responses that are deemed incorrect by a final answer verifier. Crucially, these negatives must be constructed such that the training can appropriately recover the utility or advantage of each intermediate step in the negative response. With this per-step scheme, we are able to attain consistent gains over only positive data, attaining performance similar to amplifying the amount of synthetic data by 8 times. We show that training on per-step negatives can help to unlearn spurious correlations in the positive data, and is equivalent to advantage-weighted reinforcement learning (RL), implying that it inherits robustness benefits of RL over imitating positive data alone.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

We introduce a novel method of generating synthetic question answering corpora by combining models of question generation and answer extraction, and by filtering the results to ensure roundtrip consistency. By pretraining on the resulting corpora we obtain significant improvements on SQuAD2 and NQ, establishing a new state-of-the-art on the latter. Our synthetic data generation models, for both question generation and answer extraction, can be fully reproduced by finetuning a publicly available BERT model on the extractive subsets of SQuAD2 and NQ. We also describe a more powerful variant that does full sequence-to-sequence pretraining for question generation, obtaining exact match and F1 at less than 0.1% and 0.4% from human performance on SQuAD2.

Within the evolving landscape of deep learning, the dilemma of data quantity and quality has been a long-standing problem. The recent advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers a data-centric solution to alleviate the limitations of real-world data with synthetic data generation. However, current investigations into this field lack a unified framework and mostly stay on the surface. Therefore, this paper provides an organization of relevant studies based on a generic workflow of synthetic data generation. By doing so, we highlight the gaps within existing research and outline prospective avenues for future study. This work aims to shepherd the academic and industrial communities towards deeper, more methodical inquiries into the capabilities and applications of LLMs-driven synthetic data generation.

Synthetic data is widely adopted in embedding models to ensure diversity in training data distributions across dimensions such as difficulty, length, and language. However, existing prompt-based synthesis methods struggle to capture domain-specific data distributions, particularly in data-scarce domains, and often overlook fine-grained relevance diversity. In this paper, we present a Chinese short video dataset with 4-level relevance annotations, filling a critical resource void. Further, we propose a semi-supervised synthetic data pipeline where two collaboratively trained models generate domain-adaptive short video data with controllable relevance labels. Our method enhances relevance-level diversity by synthesizing samples for underrepresented intermediate relevance labels, resulting in a more balanced and semantically rich training data set. Extensive offline experiments show that the embedding model trained on our synthesized data outperforms those using data generated based on prompting or vanilla supervised fine-tuning(SFT). Moreover, we demonstrate that incorporating more diverse fine-grained relevance levels in training data enhances the model's sensitivity to subtle semantic distinctions, highlighting the value of fine-grained relevance supervision in embedding learning. In the search enhanced recommendation pipeline of Douyin's dual-column scenario, through online A/B testing, the proposed model increased click-through rate(CTR) by 1.45%, raised the proportion of Strong Relevance Ratio (SRR) by 4.9%, and improved the Image User Penetration Rate (IUPR) by 0.1054%.

Synthetic data is becoming increasingly important for accelerating the development of language models, both large and small. Despite several successful use cases, researchers also raised concerns around model collapse and drawbacks of imitating other models. This discrepancy can be attributed to the fact that synthetic data varies in quality and diversity. Effective use of synthetic data usually requires significant human effort in curating the data. We focus on using synthetic data for post-training, specifically creating data by powerful models to teach a new skill or behavior to another model, we refer to this setting as Generative Teaching. We introduce AgentInstruct, an extensible agentic framework for automatically creating large amounts of diverse and high-quality synthetic data. AgentInstruct can create both the prompts and responses, using only raw data sources like text documents and code files as seeds. We demonstrate the utility of AgentInstruct by creating a post training dataset of 25M pairs to teach language models different skills, such as text editing, creative writing, tool usage, coding, reading comprehension, etc. The dataset can be used for instruction tuning of any base model. We post-train Mistral-7b with the data. When comparing the resulting model Orca-3 to Mistral-7b-Instruct (which uses the same base model), we observe significant improvements across many benchmarks. For example, 40% improvement on AGIEval, 19% improvement on MMLU, 54% improvement on GSM8K, 38% improvement on BBH and 45% improvement on AlpacaEval. Additionally, it consistently outperforms other models such as LLAMA-8B-instruct and GPT-3.5-turbo.

Pretraining on large-scale, unstructured internet text has enabled language models to acquire a significant amount of world knowledge. However, this knowledge acquisition is data-inefficient -- to learn a given fact, models must be trained on hundreds to thousands of diverse representations of it. This poses a challenge when adapting a pretrained model to a small corpus of domain-specific documents, where each fact may appear rarely or only once. We propose to bridge this gap with synthetic continued pretraining: using the small domain-specific corpus to synthesize a large corpus more amenable to learning, and then performing continued pretraining on the synthesized corpus. We instantiate this proposal with EntiGraph, a synthetic data augmentation algorithm that extracts salient entities from the source documents and then generates diverse text by drawing connections between the sampled entities. Synthetic continued pretraining using EntiGraph enables a language model to answer questions and follow generic instructions related to the source documents without access to them. If instead, the source documents are available at inference time, we show that the knowledge acquired through our approach compounds with retrieval-augmented generation. To better understand these results, we build a simple mathematical model of EntiGraph, and show how synthetic data augmentation can "rearrange" knowledge to enable more data-efficient learning.

Semantic parsing, which converts natural language questions into logic forms, plays a crucial role in reasoning within structured environments. However, existing methods encounter two significant challenges: reliance on extensive manually annotated datasets and limited generalization capability to unseen examples. To tackle these issues, we propose Targeted Synthetic Data Generation (TARGA), a practical framework that dynamically generates high-relevance synthetic data without manual annotation. Starting from the pertinent entities and relations of a given question, we probe for the potential relevant queries through layer-wise expansion and cross-layer combination. Then we generate corresponding natural language questions for these constructed queries to jointly serve as the synthetic demonstrations for in-context learning. Experiments on multiple knowledge base question answering (KBQA) datasets demonstrate that TARGA, using only a 7B-parameter model, substantially outperforms existing non-fine-tuned methods that utilize close-sourced model, achieving notable improvements in F1 scores on GrailQA(+7.7) and KBQA-Agent(+12.2). Furthermore, TARGA also exhibits superior sample efficiency, robustness, and generalization capabilities under non-I.I.D. settings.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Compression is at the heart of intelligence. A theoretically optimal way to compress any sequence of data is to find the shortest program that outputs that sequence and then halts. However, such 'Kolmogorov compression' is uncomputable, and code generating LLMs struggle to approximate this theoretical ideal, as it requires reasoning, planning and search capabilities beyond those of current models. In this work, we introduce the KoLMogorov-Test (KT), a compression-as-intelligence test for code generating LLMs. In KT a model is presented with a sequence of data at inference time, and asked to generate the shortest program that produces the sequence. We identify several benefits of KT for both evaluation and training: an essentially infinite number of problem instances of varying difficulty is readily available, strong baselines already exist, the evaluation metric (compression) cannot be gamed, and pretraining data contamination is highly unlikely. To evaluate current models, we use audio, text, and DNA data, as well as sequences produced by random synthetic programs. Current flagship models perform poorly - both GPT4-o and Llama-3.1-405B struggle on our natural and synthetic sequences. On our synthetic distribution, we are able to train code generation models with lower compression rates than previous approaches. Moreover, we show that gains on synthetic data generalize poorly to real data, suggesting that new innovations are necessary for additional gains on KT.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

The utility of synthetic data to enhance pretraining data quality and hence to improve downstream task accuracy has been widely explored in recent large language models (LLMs). Yet, these approaches fall inadequate in complex, multi-hop and mathematical reasoning tasks as the synthetic data typically fails to add complementary knowledge to the existing raw corpus. In this work, we propose a novel large-scale and diverse Math Informed syNthetic Dialogue (MIND) generation method that improves the mathematical reasoning ability of LLMs. Specifically, using MIND, we generate synthetic conversations based on OpenWebMath (OWM), resulting in a new math corpus, MIND-OWM. Our experiments with different conversational settings reveal that incorporating knowledge gaps between dialog participants is essential for generating high-quality math data. We further identify an effective way to format and integrate synthetic and raw data during pretraining to maximize the gain in mathematical reasoning, emphasizing the need to restructure raw data rather than use it as-is. Compared to pretraining just on raw data, a model pretrained on MIND-OWM shows significant boost in mathematical reasoning (GSM8K: +13.42%, MATH: +2.30%), including superior performance in specialized knowledge (MMLU: +4.55%, MMLU-STEM: +4.28%) and general purpose reasoning tasks (GENERAL REASONING: +2.51%).

Deep learning in computer vision has achieved great success with the price of large-scale labeled training data. However, exhaustive data annotation is impracticable for each task of all domains of interest, due to high labor costs and unguaranteed labeling accuracy. Besides, the uncontrollable data collection process produces non-IID training and test data, where undesired duplication may exist. All these nuisances may hinder the verification of typical theories and exposure to new findings. To circumvent them, an alternative is to generate synthetic data via 3D rendering with domain randomization. We in this work push forward along this line by doing profound and extensive research on bare supervised learning and downstream domain adaptation. Specifically, under the well-controlled, IID data setting enabled by 3D rendering, we systematically verify the typical, important learning insights, e.g., shortcut learning, and discover the new laws of various data regimes and network architectures in generalization. We further investigate the effect of image formation factors on generalization, e.g., object scale, material texture, illumination, camera viewpoint, and background in a 3D scene. Moreover, we use the simulation-to-reality adaptation as a downstream task for comparing the transferability between synthetic and real data when used for pre-training, which demonstrates that synthetic data pre-training is also promising to improve real test results. Lastly, to promote future research, we develop a new large-scale synthetic-to-real benchmark for image classification, termed S2RDA, which provides more significant challenges for transfer from simulation to reality. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/huitangtang/On_the_Utility_of_Synthetic_Data.

Machine learning classification problems are widespread in bioinformatics, but the technical knowledge required to perform model training, optimization, and inference can prevent researchers from utilizing this technology. This article presents an automated tool for machine learning classification problems to simplify the process of training models and producing results while providing informative visualizations and insights into the data. This tool supports both binary and multiclass classification problems, and it provides access to a variety of models and methods. Synthetic data can be generated within the interface to fill missing values, balance class labels, or generate entirely new datasets. It also provides support for feature evaluation and generates explainability scores to indicate which features influence the output the most. We present CLASSify, an open-source tool for simplifying the user experience of solving classification problems without the need for knowledge of machine learning.

Recent smaller language models such Phi-3.5 and Phi-4 rely on synthetic data generated using larger Language models. Questions remain about leveraging synthetic data for other use cases, such as adapting LLMs to specific domains. A key limitation of synthetic data is low diversity, which negatively impacts its downstream applicability for improving other models. To address this, we propose MetaSynth, a method for generating synthetic data that enhances diversity through meta-prompting, where a language model orchestrates multiple "expert" LLM agents to collaboratively generate data. Using only 25 million tokens of synthetic data generated with MetaSynth, we successfully adapt a well-trained LLM (Mistral-7B-v0.3) to two specialized domains-Finance and Biomedicine-without compromising the capabilities of the resulting model in general tasks. In addition, we evaluate the diversity of our synthetic data using seven automated metrics, and find that it approaches the diversity of LLM pre-training corpora. Continually pre-training Mistral-7B-v0.3 with MetaSynth notably outperforms the base LLM, showing improvements of up to 4.08% in Finance and 13.75% in Biomedicine. The same model shows degraded performance when trained on data generated using a template prompt, even when the template includes prior generations and varying In-Context exemplars of real data. Our findings suggest that a few million tokens of diverse synthetic data without mixing any real data, is sufficient for effective domain adaptation when using MetaSynth.

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

A long-term goal of machine learning is to build intelligent conversational agents. One recent popular approach is to train end-to-end models on a large amount of real dialog transcripts between humans (Sordoni et al., 2015; Vinyals & Le, 2015; Shang et al., 2015). However, this approach leaves many questions unanswered as an understanding of the precise successes and shortcomings of each model is hard to assess. A contrasting recent proposal are the bAbI tasks (Weston et al., 2015b) which are synthetic data that measure the ability of learning machines at various reasoning tasks over toy language. Unfortunately, those tests are very small and hence may encourage methods that do not scale. In this work, we propose a suite of new tasks of a much larger scale that attempt to bridge the gap between the two regimes. Choosing the domain of movies, we provide tasks that test the ability of models to answer factual questions (utilizing OMDB), provide personalization (utilizing MovieLens), carry short conversations about the two, and finally to perform on natural dialogs from Reddit. We provide a dataset covering 75k movie entities and with 3.5M training examples. We present results of various models on these tasks, and evaluate their performance.

Recent image generation models such as Stable Diffusion have exhibited an impressive ability to generate fairly realistic images starting from a simple text prompt. Could such models render real images obsolete for training image prediction models? In this paper, we answer part of this provocative question by investigating the need for real images when training models for ImageNet classification. Provided only with the class names that have been used to build the dataset, we explore the ability of Stable Diffusion to generate synthetic clones of ImageNet and measure how useful these are for training classification models from scratch. We show that with minimal and class-agnostic prompt engineering, ImageNet clones are able to close a large part of the gap between models produced by synthetic images and models trained with real images, for the several standard classification benchmarks that we consider in this study. More importantly, we show that models trained on synthetic images exhibit strong generalization properties and perform on par with models trained on real data for transfer. Project page: https://europe.naverlabs.com/imagenet-sd/

Recent Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in mimicking fictional characters or real humans in conversational settings. However, the realism and consistency of these responses can be further enhanced by providing richer information of the agent being mimicked. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to generate more realistic and consistent responses from LLMs, leveraging five senses, attributes, emotional states, relationship with the interlocutor, and memories. By incorporating these factors, we aim to increase the LLM's capacity for generating natural and realistic reactions in conversational exchanges. Through our research, we expect to contribute to the development of LLMs that demonstrate improved capabilities in mimicking fictional characters. We release a new benchmark dataset and all our codes, prompts, and sample results on our Github: https://github.com/srafsasm/InfoRichBot

Forecasting future world events is a challenging but valuable task. Forecasts of climate, geopolitical conflict, pandemics and economic indicators help shape policy and decision making. In these domains, the judgment of expert humans contributes to the best forecasts. Given advances in language modeling, can these forecasts be automated? To this end, we introduce Autocast, a dataset containing thousands of forecasting questions and an accompanying news corpus. Questions are taken from forecasting tournaments, ensuring high quality, real-world importance, and diversity. The news corpus is organized by date, allowing us to precisely simulate the conditions under which humans made past forecasts (avoiding leakage from the future). Motivated by the difficulty of forecasting numbers across orders of magnitude (e.g. global cases of COVID-19 in 2022), we also curate IntervalQA, a dataset of numerical questions and metrics for calibration. We test language models on our forecasting task and find that performance is far below a human expert baseline. However, performance improves with increased model size and incorporation of relevant information from the news corpus. In sum, Autocast poses a novel challenge for large language models and improved performance could bring large practical benefits.

When language models are trained on textual data, they acquire both knowledge about the structure of language as well as knowledge of facts about the world. At inference time, their knowledge of facts can be leveraged to solve interesting problems and perform useful knowledge work for users. It is well known that language models can verbatim memorize long sequences from their training data. However, it is much less well understood how language models memorize facts seen during training. In this work, we propose a new dataset to specifically empower researchers to study the dual processes of fact memorization and verbatim sequence memorization. The dataset consists of synthetically-generated, webtext-like documents about fictional events, as well as question-answer pairs about the events. We conduct training experiments showing how synthetic data about fictional events can be effective in teasing apart different forms of memorization. We also document the challenges in effectively building realistic, fictional synthetic data.

Personalization in Information Retrieval (IR) is a topic studied by the research community since a long time. However, there is still a lack of datasets to conduct large-scale evaluations of personalized IR; this is mainly due to the fact that collecting and curating high-quality user-related information requires significant costs and time investment. Furthermore, the creation of datasets for Personalized IR (PIR) tasks is affected by both privacy concerns and the need for accurate user-related data, which are often not publicly available. Recently, researchers have started to explore the use of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate synthetic datasets, which is a possible solution to generate data for low-resource tasks. In this paper, we investigate the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) for generating synthetic documents to train an IR system for a Personalized Community Question Answering task. To study the effectiveness of IR models fine-tuned on LLM-generated data, we introduce a new dataset, named Sy-SE-PQA. We build Sy-SE-PQA based on an existing dataset, SE-PQA, which consists of questions and answers posted on the popular StackExchange communities. Starting from questions in SE-PQA, we generate synthetic answers using different prompt techniques and LLMs. Our findings suggest that LLMs have high potential in generating data tailored to users' needs. The synthetic data can replace human-written training data, even if the generated data may contain incorrect information.

Over the past few years there has been major progress in the field of synthetic data generation using simulation based techniques. These methods use high-end graphics engines and physics-based ray-tracing rendering in order to represent the world in 3D and create highly realistic images. Datagen has specialized in the generation of high-quality 3D humans, realistic 3D environments and generation of realistic human motion. This technology has been developed into a data generation platform which we used for these experiments. This work demonstrates the use of synthetic photo-realistic in-cabin data to train a Driver Monitoring System that uses a lightweight neural network to detect whether the driver's hands are on the wheel. We demonstrate that when only a small amount of real data is available, synthetic data can be a simple way to boost performance. Moreover, we adopt the data-centric approach and show how performing error analysis and generating the missing edge-cases in our platform boosts performance. This showcases the ability of human-centric synthetic data to generalize well to the real world, and help train algorithms in computer vision settings where data from the target domain is scarce or hard to collect.

We develop a method to generate predictive regions that cover a multivariate response variable with a user-specified probability. Our work is composed of two components. First, we use a deep generative model to learn a representation of the response that has a unimodal distribution. Existing multiple-output quantile regression approaches are effective in such cases, so we apply them on the learned representation, and then transform the solution to the original space of the response. This process results in a flexible and informative region that can have an arbitrary shape, a property that existing methods lack. Second, we propose an extension of conformal prediction to the multivariate response setting that modifies any method to return sets with a pre-specified coverage level. The desired coverage is theoretically guaranteed in the finite-sample case for any distribution. Experiments conducted on both real and synthetic data show that our method constructs regions that are significantly smaller compared to existing techniques.

We propose a benchmark to measure whether a language model is truthful in generating answers to questions. The benchmark comprises 817 questions that span 38 categories, including health, law, finance and politics. We crafted questions that some humans would answer falsely due to a false belief or misconception. To perform well, models must avoid generating false answers learned from imitating human texts. We tested GPT-3, GPT-Neo/J, GPT-2 and a T5-based model. The best model was truthful on 58% of questions, while human performance was 94%. Models generated many false answers that mimic popular misconceptions and have the potential to deceive humans. The largest models were generally the least truthful. This contrasts with other NLP tasks, where performance improves with model size. However, this result is expected if false answers are learned from the training distribution. We suggest that scaling up models alone is less promising for improving truthfulness than fine-tuning using training objectives other than imitation of text from the web.

We present a demonstration of a large language model engaging in alignment faking: selectively complying with its training objective in training to prevent modification of its behavior out of training. First, we give Claude 3 Opus a system prompt stating it is being trained to answer all queries, even harmful ones, which conflicts with its prior training to refuse such queries. To allow the model to infer when it is in training, we say it will be trained only on conversations with free users, not paid users. We find the model complies with harmful queries from free users 14% of the time, versus almost never for paid users. Explaining this gap, in almost all cases where the model complies with a harmful query from a free user, we observe explicit alignment-faking reasoning, with the model stating it is strategically answering harmful queries in training to preserve its preferred harmlessness behavior out of training. Next, we study a more realistic setting where information about the training process is provided not in a system prompt, but by training on synthetic documents that mimic pre-training data--and observe similar alignment faking. Finally, we study the effect of actually training the model to comply with harmful queries via reinforcement learning, which we find increases the rate of alignment-faking reasoning to 78%, though also increases compliance even out of training. We additionally observe other behaviors such as the model exfiltrating its weights when given an easy opportunity. While we made alignment faking easier by telling the model when and by what criteria it was being trained, we did not instruct the model to fake alignment or give it any explicit goal. As future models might infer information about their training process without being told, our results suggest a risk of alignment faking in future models, whether due to a benign preference--as in this case--or not.

Many methods now exist for conditioning model outputs on task instructions, retrieved documents, and user-provided explanations and feedback. Rather than relying solely on examples of task inputs and outputs, these approaches use valuable additional data for improving model correctness and aligning learned models with human priors. Meanwhile, a growing body of evidence suggests that some language models can (1) store a large amount of knowledge in their parameters, and (2) perform inference over tasks in textual inputs at test time. These results raise the possibility that, for some tasks, humans cannot explain to a model any more about the task than it already knows or could infer on its own. In this paper, we study the circumstances under which explanations of individual data points can (or cannot) improve modeling performance. In order to carefully control important properties of the data and explanations, we introduce a synthetic dataset for experiments, and we also make use of three existing datasets with explanations: e-SNLI, TACRED, and SemEval. We first give a formal framework for the available modeling approaches, in which explanation data can be used as model inputs, as targets, or as a prior. After arguing that the most promising role for explanation data is as model inputs, we propose to use a retrieval-based method and show that it solves our synthetic task with accuracies upwards of 95%, while baselines without explanation data achieve below 65% accuracy. We then identify properties of datasets for which retrieval-based modeling fails. With the three existing datasets, we find no improvements from explanation retrieval. Drawing on findings from our synthetic task, we suggest that at least one of six preconditions for successful modeling fails to hold with these datasets. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/peterbhase/ExplanationRoles

With the rapid development of AI-generated content, the future internet may be inundated with synthetic data, making the discrimination of authentic and credible multimodal data increasingly challenging. Synthetic data detection has thus garnered widespread attention, and the performance of large multimodal models (LMMs) in this task has attracted significant interest. LMMs can provide natural language explanations for their authenticity judgments, enhancing the explainability of synthetic content detection. Simultaneously, the task of distinguishing between real and synthetic data effectively tests the perception, knowledge, and reasoning capabilities of LMMs. In response, we introduce LOKI, a novel benchmark designed to evaluate the ability of LMMs to detect synthetic data across multiple modalities. LOKI encompasses video, image, 3D, text, and audio modalities, comprising 18K carefully curated questions across 26 subcategories with clear difficulty levels. The benchmark includes coarse-grained judgment and multiple-choice questions, as well as fine-grained anomaly selection and explanation tasks, allowing for a comprehensive analysis of LMMs. We evaluated 22 open-source LMMs and 6 closed-source models on LOKI, highlighting their potential as synthetic data detectors and also revealing some limitations in the development of LMM capabilities. More information about LOKI can be found at https://opendatalab.github.io/LOKI/

Large language models (LLMs) show great potential for synthetic data generation. This work shows that useful data can be synthetically generated even for tasks that cannot be solved directly by the LLM: we show that, for problems with structured outputs, it is possible to prompt an LLM to perform the task in the opposite direction, to generate plausible text for the target structure. Leveraging the asymmetry in task difficulty makes it possible to produce large-scale, high-quality data for complex tasks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on closed information extraction, where collecting ground-truth data is challenging, and no satisfactory dataset exists to date. We synthetically generate a dataset of 1.8M data points, demonstrate its superior quality compared to existing datasets in a human evaluation and use it to finetune small models (220M and 770M parameters). The models we introduce, SynthIE, outperform existing baselines of comparable size with a substantial gap of 57 and 79 absolute points in micro and macro F1, respectively. Code, data, and models are available at https://github.com/epfl-dlab/SynthIE.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has been shown to significantly boost reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) in math, coding, and multi-hop reasoning tasks. However, RL fine-tuning requires abundant high-quality verifiable data, often sourced from human annotations, generated from frontier LLMs, or scored by LLM-based verifiers. All three have considerable limitations: human-annotated datasets are small and expensive to curate, LLM-generated data is hallucination-prone and costly, and LLM-based verifiers are inaccurate and slow. In this work, we investigate a cheaper alternative: RL fine-tuning on rule-generated synthetic data for multi-hop reasoning tasks. We discover that LLMs fine-tuned on synthetic data perform significantly better on popular real-world question-answering benchmarks, despite the synthetic data containing only fictional knowledge. On stratifying performance by question difficulty, we find that synthetic data teaches LLMs to compose knowledge -- a fundamental and generalizable reasoning skill. Our work highlights rule-generated synthetic reasoning data as a free and scalable resource to improve LLM reasoning capabilities.

Recent advancements in generative models have unlocked the capabilities to render photo-realistic data in a controllable fashion. Trained on the real data, these generative models are capable of producing realistic samples with minimal to no domain gap, as compared to the traditional graphics rendering. However, using the data generated using such models for training downstream tasks remains under-explored, mainly due to the lack of 3D consistent annotations. Moreover, controllable generative models are learned from massive data and their latent space is often too vast to obtain meaningful sample distributions for downstream task with limited generation. To overcome these challenges, we extract 3D consistent annotations from an existing controllable generative model, making the data useful for downstream tasks. Our experiments show competitive performance against state-of-the-art models using only generated synthetic data, demonstrating potential for solving downstream tasks. Project page: https://synth-forge.github.io

Training on high-quality synthetic data from strong language models (LMs) is a common strategy to improve the reasoning performance of LMs. In this work, we revisit whether this strategy is compute-optimal under a fixed inference budget (e.g., FLOPs). To do so, we investigate the trade-offs between generating synthetic data using a stronger but more expensive (SE) model versus a weaker but cheaper (WC) model. We evaluate the generated data across three key metrics: coverage, diversity, and false positive rate, and show that the data from WC models may have higher coverage and diversity, but also exhibit higher false positive rates. We then finetune LMs on data from SE and WC models in different settings: knowledge distillation, self-improvement, and a novel weak-to-strong improvement setup where a weaker LM teaches reasoning to a stronger LM. Our findings reveal that models finetuned on WC-generated data consistently outperform those trained on SE-generated data across multiple benchmarks and multiple choices of WC and SE models. These results challenge the prevailing practice of relying on SE models for synthetic data generation, suggesting that WC may be the compute-optimal approach for training advanced LM reasoners.

In the context of pretraining of Large Language Models (LLMs), synthetic data has emerged as an alternative for generating high-quality pretraining data at scale. This is particularly beneficial in low-resource language settings where the benefits of recent LLMs have been unevenly distributed across languages. In this work, we present a systematic study on the generation and evaluation of synthetic multilingual pretraining data for Indic languages, where we construct a large-scale synthetic dataset BhashaKritika, comprising 540B tokens using 5 different techniques for 10 languages. We explore the impact of grounding generation in documents, personas, and topics. We analyze how language choice, both in the prompt instructions and document grounding, affects data quality, and we compare translations of English content with native generation in Indic languages. To support scalable and language-sensitive evaluation, we introduce a modular quality evaluation pipeline that integrates script and language detection, metadata consistency checks, n-gram repetition analysis, and perplexity-based filtering using KenLM models. Our framework enables robust quality control across diverse scripts and linguistic contexts. Empirical results through model runs reveal key trade-offs in generation strategies and highlight best practices for constructing effective multilingual corpora.

Do large language models (LLMs) anticipate when they will answer correctly? To study this, we extract activations after a question is read but before any tokens are generated, and train linear probes to predict whether the model's forthcoming answer will be correct. Across three open-source model families ranging from 7 to 70 billion parameters, projections on this "in-advance correctness direction" trained on generic trivia questions predict success in distribution and on diverse out-of-distribution knowledge datasets, outperforming black-box baselines and verbalised predicted confidence. Predictive power saturates in intermediate layers, suggesting that self-assessment emerges mid-computation. Notably, generalisation falters on questions requiring mathematical reasoning. Moreover, for models responding "I don't know", doing so strongly correlates with the probe score, indicating that the same direction also captures confidence. By complementing previous results on truthfulness and other behaviours obtained with probes and sparse auto-encoders, our work contributes essential findings to elucidate LLM internals.

We show, for the first time, that neural networks trained only on synthetic data achieve state-of-the-art accuracy on the problem of 3D human pose and shape (HPS) estimation from real images. Previous synthetic datasets have been small, unrealistic, or lacked realistic clothing. Achieving sufficient realism is non-trivial and we show how to do this for full bodies in motion. Specifically, our BEDLAM dataset contains monocular RGB videos with ground-truth 3D bodies in SMPL-X format. It includes a diversity of body shapes, motions, skin tones, hair, and clothing. The clothing is realistically simulated on the moving bodies using commercial clothing physics simulation. We render varying numbers of people in realistic scenes with varied lighting and camera motions. We then train various HPS regressors using BEDLAM and achieve state-of-the-art accuracy on real-image benchmarks despite training with synthetic data. We use BEDLAM to gain insights into what model design choices are important for accuracy. With good synthetic training data, we find that a basic method like HMR approaches the accuracy of the current SOTA method (CLIFF). BEDLAM is useful for a variety of tasks and all images, ground truth bodies, 3D clothing, support code, and more are available for research purposes. Additionally, we provide detailed information about our synthetic data generation pipeline, enabling others to generate their own datasets. See the project page: https://bedlam.is.tue.mpg.de/.

Deep neural networks have brought remarkable breakthroughs in medical image analysis. However, due to their data-hungry nature, the modest dataset sizes in medical imaging projects might be hindering their full potential. Generating synthetic data provides a promising alternative, allowing to complement training datasets and conducting medical image research at a larger scale. Diffusion models recently have caught the attention of the computer vision community by producing photorealistic synthetic images. In this study, we explore using Latent Diffusion Models to generate synthetic images from high-resolution 3D brain images. We used T1w MRI images from the UK Biobank dataset (N=31,740) to train our models to learn about the probabilistic distribution of brain images, conditioned on covariables, such as age, sex, and brain structure volumes. We found that our models created realistic data, and we could use the conditioning variables to control the data generation effectively. Besides that, we created a synthetic dataset with 100,000 brain images and made it openly available to the scientific community.

Synthetic data (SIM) drawn from simulators have emerged as a popular alternative for training models where acquiring annotated real-world images is difficult. However, transferring models trained on synthetic images to real-world applications can be challenging due to appearance disparities. A commonly employed solution to counter this SIM2REAL gap is unsupervised domain adaptation, where models are trained using labeled SIM data and unlabeled REAL data. Mispredictions made by such SIM2REAL adapted models are often associated with miscalibration - stemming from overconfident predictions on real data. In this paper, we introduce AUGCAL, a simple training-time patch for unsupervised adaptation that improves SIM2REAL adapted models by - (1) reducing overall miscalibration, (2) reducing overconfidence in incorrect predictions and (3) improving confidence score reliability by better guiding misclassification detection - all while retaining or improving SIM2REAL performance. Given a base SIM2REAL adaptation algorithm, at training time, AUGCAL involves replacing vanilla SIM images with strongly augmented views (AUG intervention) and additionally optimizing for a training time calibration loss on augmented SIM predictions (CAL intervention). We motivate AUGCAL using a brief analytical justification of how to reduce miscalibration on unlabeled REAL data. Through our experiments, we empirically show the efficacy of AUGCAL across multiple adaptation methods, backbones, tasks and shifts.

Autoregressive language models are trained by minimizing the cross-entropy of the model distribution Q relative to the data distribution P -- that is, minimizing the forward cross-entropy, which is equivalent to maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We have observed that models trained in this way may "over-generalize", in the sense that they produce non-human-like text. Moreover, we believe that reverse cross-entropy, i.e., the cross-entropy of P relative to Q, is a better reflection of how a human would evaluate text generated by a model. Hence, we propose learning with MixCE, an objective that mixes the forward and reverse cross-entropies. We evaluate models trained with this objective on synthetic data settings (where P is known) and real data, and show that the resulting models yield better generated text without complex decoding strategies. Our code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bloomberg/mixce-acl2023

Crowdsourcing has emerged as an effective platform for labeling large amounts of data in a cost- and time-efficient manner. Most previous work has focused on designing an efficient algorithm to recover only the ground-truth labels of the data. In this paper, we consider multi-choice crowdsourcing tasks with the goal of recovering not only the ground truth, but also the most confusing answer and the confusion probability. The most confusing answer provides useful information about the task by revealing the most plausible answer other than the ground truth and how plausible it is. To theoretically analyze such scenarios, we propose a model in which there are the top two plausible answers for each task, distinguished from the rest of the choices. Task difficulty is quantified by the probability of confusion between the top two, and worker reliability is quantified by the probability of giving an answer among the top two. Under this model, we propose a two-stage inference algorithm to infer both the top two answers and the confusion probability. We show that our algorithm achieves the minimax optimal convergence rate. We conduct both synthetic and real data experiments and demonstrate that our algorithm outperforms other recent algorithms. We also show the applicability of our algorithms in inferring the difficulty of tasks and in training neural networks with top-two soft labels.

Split conformal prediction has recently sparked great interest due to its ability to provide formally guaranteed uncertainty sets or intervals for predictions made by black-box neural models, ensuring a predefined probability of containing the actual ground truth. While the original formulation assumes data exchangeability, some extensions handle non-exchangeable data, which is often the case in many real-world scenarios. In parallel, some progress has been made in conformal methods that provide statistical guarantees for a broader range of objectives, such as bounding the best F_1-score or minimizing the false negative rate in expectation. In this paper, we leverage and extend these two lines of work by proposing non-exchangeable conformal risk control, which allows controlling the expected value of any monotone loss function when the data is not exchangeable. Our framework is flexible, makes very few assumptions, and allows weighting the data based on its relevance for a given test example; a careful choice of weights may result on tighter bounds, making our framework useful in the presence of change points, time series, or other forms of distribution drift. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data show the usefulness of our method.

Recent advances have spurred incredible progress in self-supervised pretraining for vision. We investigate what factors may play a role in the utility of these pretraining methods for practitioners. To do this, we evaluate various self-supervised algorithms across a comprehensive array of synthetic datasets and downstream tasks. We prepare a suite of synthetic data that enables an endless supply of annotated images as well as full control over dataset difficulty. Our experiments offer insights into how the utility of self-supervision changes as the number of available labels grows as well as how the utility changes as a function of the downstream task and the properties of the training data. We also find that linear evaluation does not correlate with finetuning performance. Code and data is available at https://www.github.com/princeton-vl/selfstudy{github.com/princeton-vl/selfstudy}.

This is the fifth year of the TREC Deep Learning track. As in previous years, we leverage the MS MARCO datasets that made hundreds of thousands of human-annotated training labels available for both passage and document ranking tasks. We mostly repeated last year's design, to get another matching test set, based on the larger, cleaner, less-biased v2 passage and document set, with passage ranking as primary and document ranking as a secondary task (using labels inferred from passage). As we did last year, we sample from MS MARCO queries that were completely held out, unused in corpus construction, unlike the test queries in the first three years. This approach yields a more difficult test with more headroom for improvement. Alongside the usual MS MARCO (human) queries from MS MARCO, this year we generated synthetic queries using a fine-tuned T5 model and using a GPT-4 prompt. The new headline result this year is that runs using Large Language Model (LLM) prompting in some way outperformed runs that use the "nnlm" approach, which was the best approach in the previous four years. Since this is the last year of the track, future iterations of prompt-based ranking can happen in other tracks. Human relevance assessments were applied to all query types, not just human MS MARCO queries. Evaluation using synthetic queries gave similar results to human queries, with system ordering agreement of τ=0.8487. However, human effort was needed to select a subset of the synthetic queries that were usable. We did not see clear evidence of bias, where runs using GPT-4 were favored when evaluated using synthetic GPT-4 queries, or where runs using T5 were favored when evaluated on synthetic T5 queries.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Deep generative models have made tremendous progress in modeling complex data, often exhibiting generation quality that surpasses a typical human's ability to discern the authenticity of samples. Undeniably, a key driver of this success is enabled by the massive amounts of web-scale data consumed by these models. Due to these models' striking performance and ease of availability, the web will inevitably be increasingly populated with synthetic content. Such a fact directly implies that future iterations of generative models must contend with the reality that their training is curated from both clean data and artificially generated data from past models. In this paper, we develop a framework to rigorously study the impact of training generative models on mixed datasets (of real and synthetic data) on their stability. We first prove the stability of iterative training under the condition that the initial generative models approximate the data distribution well enough and the proportion of clean training data (w.r.t. synthetic data) is large enough. We empirically validate our theory on both synthetic and natural images by iteratively training normalizing flows and state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR10 and FFHQ.

The widespread adoption of synthetic data raises new questions about how models generating the data can influence other large language models (LLMs) via distilled data. To start, our work exhaustively characterizes the impact of passive inheritance of model properties by systematically studying the consequences of synthetic data integration. We provide one of the most comprehensive studies to-date of how the source of synthetic data shapes models' internal biases, calibration and generations' textual attributes and preferences. We find that models are surprisingly sensitive towards certain attributes even when the synthetic data prompts appear "neutral". which invites the question whether this sensitivity can be exploited for good. Our findings invite the question can we explicitly steer the models towards the properties we want at test time by exploiting the data generation process? This would have historically been considered infeasible due to the cost of collecting data with a specific characteristic or objective in mind. However, improvement in the quality of synthetic data, as well as a shift towards general-purpose models designed to follow a diverse way of instructions, means this question is timely. We propose active inheritance as a term to describe intentionally constraining synthetic data according to a non-differentiable objective. We demonstrate how active inheritance can steer the generation profiles of models towards desirable non-differentiable attributes, e.g. high lexical diversity or low toxicity.

Generative models have recently started to outperform extractive models in Open Domain Question Answering, largely by leveraging their decoder to attend over multiple encoded passages and combining their information. However, generative models tend to be larger than extractive models due to the need for a decoder, run slower during inference due to auto-regressive decoder beam search, and their generated output often suffers from hallucinations. We propose to extend transformer encoders with the ability to fuse information from multiple passages, using global representation to provide cross-sample attention over all tokens across samples. Furthermore, we propose an alternative answer span probability calculation to better aggregate answer scores in the global space of all samples. Using our proposed method, we outperform the current state-of-the-art method by 2.5 Exact Match score on the Natural Question dataset while using only 25% of parameters and 35% of the latency during inference, and 4.4 Exact Match on WebQuestions dataset. When coupled with synthetic data augmentation, we outperform larger models on the TriviaQA dataset as well. The latency and parameter savings of our method make it particularly attractive for open-domain question answering, as these models are often compute-intensive.

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled a range of applications in zero-shot and few-shot learning settings, including the generation of synthetic datasets for training and testing. However, to reliably use these synthetic datasets, it is essential to understand how representative they are of real-world data. We investigate this by assessing the effectiveness of generating synthetic data through LLM and using it as a benchmark for various NLP tasks. Our experiments across six datasets, and three different tasks, show that while synthetic data can effectively capture performance of various methods for simpler tasks, such as intent classification, it falls short for more complex tasks like named entity recognition. Additionally, we propose a new metric called the bias factor, which evaluates the biases introduced when the same LLM is used to both generate benchmarking data and to perform the tasks. We find that smaller LLMs exhibit biases towards their own generated data, whereas larger models do not. Overall, our findings suggest that the effectiveness of synthetic data as a benchmark varies depending on the task, and that practitioners should rely on data generated from multiple larger models whenever possible.

Data collection is often difficult in critical fields such as medicine, physics, and chemistry. As a result, classification methods usually perform poorly with these small datasets, leading to weak predictive performance. Increasing the training set with additional synthetic data, similar to data augmentation in images, is commonly believed to improve downstream classification performance. However, current tabular generative methods that learn either the joint distribution p(x, y) or the class-conditional distribution p(x mid y) often overfit on small datasets, resulting in poor-quality synthetic data, usually worsening classification performance compared to using real data alone. To solve these challenges, we introduce TabEBM, a novel class-conditional generative method using Energy-Based Models (EBMs). Unlike existing methods that use a shared model to approximate all class-conditional densities, our key innovation is to create distinct EBM generative models for each class, each modelling its class-specific data distribution individually. This approach creates robust energy landscapes, even in ambiguous class distributions. Our experiments show that TabEBM generates synthetic data with higher quality and better statistical fidelity than existing methods. When used for data augmentation, our synthetic data consistently improves the classification performance across diverse datasets of various sizes, especially small ones. Code is available at https://github.com/andreimargeloiu/TabEBM.

Recent significant advances in text-to-image models unlock the possibility of training vision systems using synthetic images, potentially overcoming the difficulty of collecting curated data at scale. It is unclear, however, how these models behave at scale, as more synthetic data is added to the training set. In this paper we study the scaling laws of synthetic images generated by state of the art text-to-image models, for the training of supervised models: image classifiers with label supervision, and CLIP with language supervision. We identify several factors, including text prompts, classifier-free guidance scale, and types of text-to-image models, that significantly affect scaling behavior. After tuning these factors, we observe that synthetic images demonstrate a scaling trend similar to, but slightly less effective than, real images in CLIP training, while they significantly underperform in scaling when training supervised image classifiers. Our analysis indicates that the main reason for this underperformance is the inability of off-the-shelf text-to-image models to generate certain concepts, a limitation that significantly impairs the training of image classifiers. Our findings also suggest that scaling synthetic data can be particularly effective in scenarios such as: (1) when there is a limited supply of real images for a supervised problem (e.g., fewer than 0.5 million images in ImageNet), (2) when the evaluation dataset diverges significantly from the training data, indicating the out-of-distribution scenario, or (3) when synthetic data is used in conjunction with real images, as demonstrated in the training of CLIP models.

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

The rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) has accentuated the need for diverse, high-quality pre-training data. Synthetic data emerges as a viable solution to the challenges of data scarcity and inaccessibility. While previous literature has focused predominantly on the quality and quantity of real data, our work enables the measurement of diversity in synthetic data and explores its impact on LLM performance. We study the downstream effects of synthetic data diversity during both the pre-training and fine-tuning stages by introducing a new diversity metric, LLM cluster-agent, designed to evaluate the diversity of synthetic datasets. Through a series of controlled experiments with models of 350M and 1.4B parameters, we demonstrate that the proposed cluster-based LLM scoring of diversity correlates positively with both pre-training and supervised fine-tuning performance. Our findings also reveal that synthetic data diversity in pre-training affects supervised fine-tuning more significantly than pre-training itself, even for smaller models. We hope this study advances our understanding of the optimal use of synthetic data in LLM training and opens new avenues for efficient data generation processes.

The ability to research and synthesize knowledge is central to human expertise and progress. An emerging class of systems promises these exciting capabilities through generative research synthesis, performing retrieval over the live web and synthesizing discovered sources into long-form, cited summaries. However, evaluating such systems remains an open challenge: existing question-answering benchmarks focus on short-form factual responses, while expert-curated datasets risk staleness and data contamination. Both fail to capture the complexity and evolving nature of real research synthesis tasks. In this work, we introduce DeepScholar-bench, a live benchmark and holistic, automated evaluation framework designed to evaluate generative research synthesis. DeepScholar-bench draws queries from recent, high-quality ArXiv papers and focuses on a real research synthesis task: generating the related work sections of a paper by retrieving, synthesizing, and citing prior research. Our evaluation framework holistically assesses performance across three key dimensions, knowledge synthesis, retrieval quality, and verifiability. We also develop DeepScholar-base, a reference pipeline implemented efficiently using the LOTUS API. Using the DeepScholar-bench framework, we perform a systematic evaluation of prior open-source systems, search AI's, OpenAI's DeepResearch, and DeepScholar-base. We find that DeepScholar-base establishes a strong baseline, attaining competitive or higher performance than each other method. We also find that DeepScholar-bench remains far from saturated, with no system exceeding a score of 19% across all metrics. These results underscore the difficulty of DeepScholar-bench, as well as its importance for progress towards AI systems capable of generative research synthesis. We make our code available at https://github.com/guestrin-lab/deepscholar-bench.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Can AI systems trained on the scientific record up to a fixed point in time forecast the scientific advances that follow? Such a capability could help researchers identify collaborators and impactful research directions, and anticipate which problems and methods will become central next. We introduce PreScience -- a scientific forecasting benchmark that decomposes the research process into four interdependent generative tasks: collaborator prediction, prior work selection, contribution generation, and impact prediction. PreScience is a carefully curated dataset of 98K recent AI-related research papers, featuring disambiguated author identities, temporally aligned scholarly metadata, and a structured graph of companion author publication histories and citations spanning 502K total papers. We develop baselines and evaluations for each task, including LACERScore, a novel LLM-based measure of contribution similarity that outperforms previous metrics and approximates inter-annotator agreement. We find substantial headroom remains in each task -- e.g. in contribution generation, frontier LLMs achieve only moderate similarity to the ground-truth (GPT-5, averages 5.6 on a 1-10 scale). When composed into a 12-month end-to-end simulation of scientific production, the resulting synthetic corpus is systematically less diverse and less novel than human-authored research from the same period.

Synthetic data generation with Large Language Models is a promising paradigm for augmenting natural data over a nearly infinite range of tasks. Given this variety, direct comparisons among synthetic data generation algorithms are scarce, making it difficult to understand where improvement comes from and what bottlenecks exist. We propose to evaluate algorithms via the makeup of synthetic data generated by each algorithm in terms of data quality, diversity, and complexity. We choose these three characteristics for their significance in open-ended processes and the impact each has on the capabilities of downstream models. We find quality to be essential for in-distribution model generalization, diversity to be essential for out-of-distribution generalization, and complexity to be beneficial for both. Further, we emphasize the existence of Quality-Diversity trade-offs in training data and the downstream effects on model performance. We then examine the effect of various components in the synthetic data pipeline on each data characteristic. This examination allows us to taxonomize and compare synthetic data generation algorithms through the components they utilize and the resulting effects on data QDC composition. This analysis extends into a discussion on the importance of balancing QDC in synthetic data for efficient reinforcement learning and self-improvement algorithms. Analogous to the QD trade-offs in training data, often there exist trade-offs between model output quality and output diversity which impact the composition of synthetic data. We observe that many models are currently evaluated and optimized only for output quality, thereby limiting output diversity and the potential for self-improvement. We argue that balancing these trade-offs is essential to the development of future self-improvement algorithms and highlight a number of works making progress in this direction.

We present a novel method for obtaining high-quality, domain-targeted multiple choice questions from crowd workers. Generating these questions can be difficult without trading away originality, relevance or diversity in the answer options. Our method addresses these problems by leveraging a large corpus of domain-specific text and a small set of existing questions. It produces model suggestions for document selection and answer distractor choice which aid the human question generation process. With this method we have assembled SciQ, a dataset of 13.7K multiple choice science exam questions (Dataset available at http://allenai.org/data.html). We demonstrate that the method produces in-domain questions by providing an analysis of this new dataset and by showing that humans cannot distinguish the crowdsourced questions from original questions. When using SciQ as additional training data to existing questions, we observe accuracy improvements on real science exams.

In the current data driven era, synthetic data, artificially generated data that resembles the characteristics of real world data without containing actual personal information, is gaining prominence. This is due to its potential to safeguard privacy, increase the availability of data for research, and reduce bias in machine learning models. This paper investigates the policies governing the creation, utilization, and dissemination of synthetic data. Synthetic data can be a powerful instrument for protecting the privacy of individuals, but it also presents challenges, such as ensuring its quality and authenticity. A well crafted synthetic data policy must strike a balance between privacy concerns and the utility of data, ensuring that it can be utilized effectively without compromising ethical or legal standards. Organizations and institutions must develop standardized guidelines and best practices in order to capitalize on the benefits of synthetic data while addressing its inherent challenges.

Obtaining and annotating data can be expensive and time-consuming, especially in complex, low-resource domains. We use GPT-4 and ChatGPT to augment small labeled datasets with synthetic data via simple prompts, in three different classification tasks with varying complexity. For each task, we randomly select a base sample of 500 texts to generate 5,000 new synthetic samples. We explore two augmentation strategies: one that preserves original label distribution and another that balances the distribution. Using a progressively larger training sample size, we train and evaluate a 110M parameter multilingual language model on the real and synthetic data separately. We also test GPT-4 and ChatGPT in a zero-shot setting on the test sets. We observe that GPT-4 and ChatGPT have strong zero-shot performance across all tasks. We find that data augmented with synthetic samples yields a good downstream performance, and particularly aids in low-resource settings, such as in identifying rare classes. Human-annotated data exhibits a strong predictive power, overtaking synthetic data in two out of the three tasks. This finding highlights the need for more complex prompts for synthetic datasets to consistently surpass human-generated ones.

The capability gap between open-source and closed-source large language models (LLMs) remains a challenge in text-to-SQL tasks. In this paper, we introduce a synthetic data approach that combines data produced by larger, more powerful models (strong models) with error information data generated by smaller, not well-aligned models (weak models). The method not only enhances the domain generalization of text-to-SQL models but also explores the potential of error data supervision through preference learning. Furthermore, we employ the synthetic data approach for instruction tuning on open-source LLMs, resulting SENSE, a specialized text-to-SQL model. The effectiveness of SENSE is demonstrated through state-of-the-art results on the SPIDER and BIRD benchmarks, bridging the performance gap between open-source models and methods prompted by closed-source models.

Question generation (QG) is a natural language generation task where a model is trained to ask questions corresponding to some input text. Most recent approaches frame QG as a sequence-to-sequence problem and rely on additional features and mechanisms to increase performance; however, these often increase model complexity, and can rely on auxiliary data unavailable in practical use. A single Transformer-based unidirectional language model leveraging transfer learning can be used to produce high quality questions while disposing of additional task-specific complexity. Our QG model, finetuned from GPT-2 Small, outperforms several paragraph-level QG baselines on the SQuAD dataset by 0.95 METEOR points. Human evaluators rated questions as easy to answer, relevant to their context paragraph, and corresponding well to natural human speech. Also introduced is a new set of baseline scores on the RACE dataset, which has not previously been used for QG tasks. Further experimentation with varying model capacities and datasets with non-identification type questions is recommended in order to further verify the robustness of pretrained Transformer-based LMs as question generators.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

Fine-tuning for large language models (LLMs) typically requires substantial amounts of high-quality supervised data, which is both costly and labor-intensive to acquire. While synthetic data generation has emerged as a promising solution, existing approaches frequently suffer from factual inaccuracies, insufficient long-tail coverage, simplistic knowledge structures, and homogenized outputs. To address these challenges, we introduce GraphGen, a knowledge graph-guided framework designed for three key question-answering (QA) scenarios: atomic QA, aggregated QA, and multi-hop QA. It begins by constructing a fine-grained knowledge graph from the source text. It then identifies knowledge gaps in LLMs using the expected calibration error metric, prioritizing the generation of QA pairs that target high-value, long-tail knowledge. Furthermore, GraphGen incorporates multi-hop neighborhood sampling to capture complex relational information and employs style-controlled generation to diversify the resulting QA data. Experimental results on knowledge-intensive tasks under closed-book settings demonstrate that GraphGen outperforms conventional synthetic data methods, offering a more reliable and comprehensive solution to the data scarcity challenge in supervised fine-tuning. The code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/open-sciencelab/GraphGen.

This research delves into the construction and utilization of synthetic datasets, specifically within the telematics sphere, leveraging OpenAI's powerful language model, ChatGPT. Synthetic datasets present an effective solution to challenges pertaining to data privacy, scarcity, and control over variables - characteristics that make them particularly valuable for research pursuits. The utility of these datasets, however, largely depends on their quality, measured through the lenses of diversity, relevance, and coherence. To illustrate this data creation process, a hands-on case study is conducted, focusing on the generation of a synthetic telematics dataset. The experiment involved an iterative guidance of ChatGPT, progressively refining prompts and culminating in the creation of a comprehensive dataset for a hypothetical urban planning scenario in Columbus, Ohio. Upon generation, the synthetic dataset was subjected to an evaluation, focusing on the previously identified quality parameters and employing descriptive statistics and visualization techniques for a thorough analysis. Despite synthetic datasets not serving as perfect replacements for actual world data, their potential in specific use-cases, when executed with precision, is significant. This research underscores the potential of AI models like ChatGPT in enhancing data availability for complex sectors like telematics, thus paving the way for a myriad of new research opportunities.

Large language models (LLMs) have unlocked new possibilities for generating synthetic training data in both natural language and code. By producing artificial but task-relevant examples, these models can significantly augment or even replace real-world datasets, especially when labeled data is scarce or sensitive. This paper surveys recent advances in using LLMs to create synthetic text and code, emphasizing prompt-based generation, retrieval-augmented pipelines, and iterative self-refinement. We show how these methods enrich low-resource tasks such as classification and question answering, as well as code-centric applications such as instruction tuning, code translation, and bug repair, by enabling automated verification of functional correctness. Alongside potential benefits like cost-effectiveness, broad coverage, and controllable diversity, we address challenges such as factual inaccuracies in generated text, lack of stylistic realism, and the risk of bias amplification. Proposed mitigations include filtering and weighting outputs and reinforcement learning with execution feedback for code. We conclude with open research directions like automated prompt engineering, cross-modal data synthesis, and robust evaluation frameworks, highlighting the importance of LLM-generated synthetic data in advancing AI while emphasizing ethical and quality safeguards.

Forecasting is an important task in many domains, such as technology and economics. However existing forecasting benchmarks largely lack comprehensive confidence assessment, focus on limited question types, and often consist of artificial questions that do not align with real-world human forecasting needs. To address these gaps, we introduce FOReCAst (Future Outcome Reasoning and Confidence Assessment), a benchmark that evaluates models' ability to make predictions and their confidence in them. FOReCAst spans diverse forecasting scenarios involving Boolean questions, timeframe prediction, and quantity estimation, enabling a comprehensive evaluation of both prediction accuracy and confidence calibration for real-world applications.

A key theme in the past decade has been that when large neural networks and large datasets combine they can produce remarkable results. In deep reinforcement learning (RL), this paradigm is commonly made possible through experience replay, whereby a dataset of past experiences is used to train a policy or value function. However, unlike in supervised or self-supervised learning, an RL agent has to collect its own data, which is often limited. Thus, it is challenging to reap the benefits of deep learning, and even small neural networks can overfit at the start of training. In this work, we leverage the tremendous recent progress in generative modeling and propose Synthetic Experience Replay (SynthER), a diffusion-based approach to flexibly upsample an agent's collected experience. We show that SynthER is an effective method for training RL agents across offline and online settings, in both proprioceptive and pixel-based environments. In offline settings, we observe drastic improvements when upsampling small offline datasets and see that additional synthetic data also allows us to effectively train larger networks. Furthermore, SynthER enables online agents to train with a much higher update-to-data ratio than before, leading to a significant increase in sample efficiency, without any algorithmic changes. We believe that synthetic training data could open the door to realizing the full potential of deep learning for replay-based RL algorithms from limited data. Finally, we open-source our code at https://github.com/conglu1997/SynthER.

Many information retrieval tasks require large labeled datasets for fine-tuning. However, such datasets are often unavailable, and their utility for real-world applications can diminish quickly due to domain shifts. To address this challenge, we develop and motivate a method for using large language models (LLMs) to generate large numbers of synthetic queries cheaply. The method begins by generating a small number of synthetic queries using an expensive LLM. After that, a much less expensive one is used to create large numbers of synthetic queries, which are used to fine-tune a family of reranker models. These rerankers are then distilled into a single efficient retriever for use in the target domain. We show that this technique boosts zero-shot accuracy in long-tail domains, even where only 2K synthetic queries are used for fine-tuning, and that it achieves substantially lower latency than standard reranking methods. We make our end-to-end approach, including our synthetic datasets and replication code, publicly available on Github: https://github.com/primeqa/primeqa.

Identifying how much a model {p}_{theta}(Y|X) knows about the stochastic real-world process p(Y|X) it was trained on is important to ensure it avoids producing incorrect or "hallucinated" answers or taking unsafe actions. But this is difficult for generative models because probabilistic predictions do not distinguish between per-response noise (aleatoric uncertainty) and lack of knowledge about the process (epistemic uncertainty), and existing epistemic uncertainty quantification techniques tend to be overconfident when the model underfits. We propose a general strategy for teaching a model to both approximate p(Y|X) and also estimate the remaining gaps between {p}_{theta}(Y|X) and p(Y|X): train it to predict pairs of independent responses drawn from the true conditional distribution, allow it to "cheat" by observing one response while predicting the other, then measure how much it cheats. Remarkably, we prove that being good at cheating (i.e. cheating whenever it improves your prediction) is equivalent to being second-order calibrated, a principled extension of ordinary calibration that allows us to construct provably-correct frequentist confidence intervals for p(Y|X) and detect incorrect responses with high probability. We demonstrate empirically that our approach accurately estimates how much models don't know across ambiguous image classification, (synthetic) language modeling, and partially-observable navigation tasks, outperforming existing techniques.

Recent works explore how real and synthetic data contribute to Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models' generalization. While current VLA models have shown the strong effectiveness of large-scale real-robot pre-training, synthetic data has not previously demonstrated comparable capability at scale. This paper provides the first evidence that synthetic data alone can match the performance of the strongest π-dataset in pre-training a VLA model, revealing the substantial value of large-scale simulation. The resulting model also exhibits surprisingly zero-shot sim-to-real transfer on several challenging tasks. Our synthetic dataset, InternData-A1, contains over 630k trajectories and 7,433 hours across 4 embodiments, 18 skills, 70 tasks, and 227 scenes, covering rigid, articulated, deformable, and fluid-object manipulation. It is generated through a highly autonomous, fully decoupled, and compositional simulation pipeline that enables long-horizon skill composition, flexible task assembly, and heterogeneous embodiments with minimal manual tuning. Using the same architecture as π_0, we pre-train a model entirely on InternData-A1 and find that it matches the official π_0 across 49 simulation tasks, 5 real-world tasks, and 4 long-horizon dexterous tasks. We release the dataset and will open-source the generation pipeline to broaden access to large-scale robotic data and to lower the barrier to scalable data creation for embodied AI research.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) advancement is heavily dependent on access to large-scale, high-quality training data. However, in specialized domains such as healthcare, data acquisition faces significant constraints due to privacy regulations, ethical considerations, and limited availability. While synthetic data generation offers a promising solution, conventional approaches typically require substantial real data for training generative models. The emergence of large-scale prompt-based models presents new opportunities for synthetic data generation without direct access to protected data. However, crafting effective prompts for domain-specific data generation remains challenging, and manual prompt engineering proves insufficient for achieving output with sufficient precision and authenticity. We review recent developments in automatic prompt optimization, following PRISMA guidelines. We analyze six peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2024 that focus on automatic data-free prompt optimization methods. Our analysis reveals three approaches: feedback-driven, error-based, and control-theoretic. Although all approaches demonstrate promising capabilities in prompt refinement and adaptation, our findings suggest the need for an integrated framework that combines complementary optimization techniques to enhance synthetic data generation while minimizing manual intervention. We propose future research directions toward developing robust, iterative prompt optimization frameworks capable of improving the quality of synthetic data. This advancement can be particularly crucial for sensitive fields and in specialized domains where data access is restricted, potentially transforming how we approach synthetic data generation for AI development.

The evaluation of machine learning models using human-labeled validation data can be expensive and time-consuming. AI-labeled synthetic data can be used to decrease the number of human annotations required for this purpose in a process called autoevaluation. We suggest efficient and statistically principled algorithms for this purpose that improve sample efficiency while remaining unbiased. These algorithms increase the effective human-labeled sample size by up to 50% on experiments with GPT-4.

In this paper, we address a key scientific problem in machine learning: Given a training set for an image classification task, can we train a generative model on this dataset to enhance the classification performance? (i.e., closed-set generative data augmentation). We start by exploring the distinctions and similarities between real images and closed-set synthetic images generated by advanced generative models. Through extensive experiments, we offer systematic insights into the effective use of closed-set synthetic data for augmentation. Notably, we empirically determine the equivalent scale of synthetic images needed for augmentation. In addition, we also show quantitative equivalence between the real data augmentation and open-set generative augmentation (generative models trained using data beyond the given training set). While it aligns with the common intuition that real images are generally preferred, our empirical formulation also offers a guideline to quantify the increased scale of synthetic data augmentation required to achieve comparable image classification performance. Our results on natural and medical image datasets further illustrate how this effect varies with the baseline training set size and the amount of synthetic data incorporated.

In order to fully harness the potential of machine learning, it is crucial to establish a system that renders the field more accessible and less daunting for individuals who may not possess a comprehensive understanding of its intricacies. The paper describes the design of a system that integrates AutoML, XAI, and synthetic data generation to provide a great UX design for users. The system allows users to navigate and harness the power of machine learning while abstracting its complexities and providing high usability. The paper proposes two novel classifiers, Logistic Regression Forest and Support Vector Tree, for enhanced model performance, achieving 96\% accuracy on a diabetes dataset and 93\% on a survey dataset. The paper also introduces a model-dependent local interpreter called MEDLEY and evaluates its interpretation against LIME, Greedy, and Parzen. Additionally, the paper introduces LLM-based synthetic data generation, library-based data generation, and enhancing the original dataset with GAN. The findings on synthetic data suggest that enhancing the original dataset with GAN is the most reliable way to generate synthetic data, as evidenced by KS tests, standard deviation, and feature importance. The authors also found that GAN works best for quantitative datasets.

Generation of plausible yet incorrect factual information, termed hallucination, is an unsolved issue in large language models. We study the ability of language models to deliberate on the responses they give in order to correct their mistakes. We develop the Chain-of-Verification (CoVe) method whereby the model first (i) drafts an initial response; then (ii) plans verification questions to fact-check its draft; (iii) answers those questions independently so the answers are not biased by other responses; and (iv) generates its final verified response. In experiments, we show CoVe decreases hallucinations across a variety of tasks, from list-based questions from Wikidata, closed book MultiSpanQA and longform text generation.

We investigate the usefulness of generative Large Language Models (LLMs) in generating training data for cross-encoder re-rankers in a novel direction: generating synthetic documents instead of synthetic queries. We introduce a new dataset, ChatGPT-RetrievalQA, and compare the effectiveness of models fine-tuned on LLM-generated and human-generated data. Data generated with generative LLMs can be used to augment training data, especially in domains with smaller amounts of labeled data. We build ChatGPT-RetrievalQA based on an existing dataset, human ChatGPT Comparison Corpus (HC3), consisting of public question collections with human responses and answers from ChatGPT. We fine-tune a range of cross-encoder re-rankers on either human-generated or ChatGPT-generated data. Our evaluation on MS MARCO DEV, TREC DL'19, and TREC DL'20 demonstrates that cross-encoder re-ranking models trained on ChatGPT responses are statistically significantly more effective zero-shot re-rankers than those trained on human responses. In a supervised setting, the human-trained re-rankers outperform the LLM-trained re-rankers. Our novel findings suggest that generative LLMs have high potential in generating training data for neural retrieval models. Further work is needed to determine the effect of factually wrong information in the generated responses and test our findings' generalizability with open-source LLMs. We release our data, code, and cross-encoders checkpoints for future work.