Daily Papers

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal discovery. In this paper, we develop a framework for causal discovery from such data, called Constraint-based causal Discovery from heterogeneous/NOnstationary Data (CD-NOD), to find causal skeleton and directions and estimate the properties of mechanism changes. First, we propose an enhanced constraint-based procedure to detect variables whose local mechanisms change and recover the skeleton of the causal structure over observed variables. Second, we present a method to determine causal orientations by making use of independent changes in the data distribution implied by the underlying causal model, benefiting from information carried by changing distributions. After learning the causal structure, next, we investigate how to efficiently estimate the "driving force" of the nonstationarity of a causal mechanism. That is, we aim to extract from data a low-dimensional representation of changes. The proposed methods are nonparametric, with no hard restrictions on data distributions and causal mechanisms, and do not rely on window segmentation. Furthermore, we find that data heterogeneity benefits causal structure identification even with particular types of confounders. Finally, we show the connection between heterogeneity/nonstationarity and soft intervention in causal discovery. Experimental results on various synthetic and real-world data sets (task-fMRI and stock market data) are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methods.

Market manipulation now routinely originates from coordinated social media campaigns, not isolated trades. Retail investors, regulators, and brokerages need tools that connect online narratives and coordination patterns to market behavior. We present AIMM, an AI-driven framework that fuses Reddit activity, bot and coordination indicators, and OHLCV market features into a daily AIMM Manipulation Risk Score for each ticker. The system uses a parquet-native pipeline with a Streamlit dashboard that allows analysts to explore suspicious windows, inspect underlying posts and price action, and log model outputs over time. Due to Reddit API restrictions, we employ calibrated synthetic social features matching documented event characteristics; market data (OHLCV) uses real historical data from Yahoo Finance. This release makes three contributions. First, we build the AIMM Ground Truth dataset (AIMM-GT): 33 labeled ticker-days spanning eight equities, drawing from SEC enforcement actions, community-verified manipulation cases, and matched normal controls. Second, we implement forward-walk evaluation and prospective prediction logging for both retrospective and deployment-style assessment. Third, we analyze lead times and show that AIMM flagged GME 22 days before the January 2021 squeeze peak. The current labeled set is small (33 ticker-days, 3 positive events), but results show preliminary discriminative capability and early warnings for the GME incident. We release the code, dataset schema, and dashboard design to support research on social media-driven market surveillance.

The global warehousing industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to grow at an annual rate of 8.1% from 2024 to 2030 [Grand View Research, 2021]. This expansion has led to a surge in demand for efficient pallet detection and localisation systems. While automation can significantly streamline warehouse operations, the development of such systems often requires extensive manual data annotation, with an average of 35 seconds per image, for a typical computer vision project. This paper presents a novel approach to enhance pallet detection and localisation using purely synthetic data and geometric features derived from their side faces. By implementing a domain randomisation engine in Unity, the need for time-consuming manual annotation is eliminated while achieving high-performance results. The proposed method demonstrates a pallet detection performance of 0.995 mAP50 for single pallets on a real-world dataset. Additionally, an average position accuracy of less than 4.2 cm and an average rotation accuracy of 8.2° were achieved for pallets within a 5-meter range, with the pallet positioned head-on.

Market generators using deep generative models have shown promise for synthetic financial data generation, but existing approaches lack causal reasoning capabilities essential for counterfactual analysis and risk assessment. We propose a Time-series Neural Causal Model VAE (TNCM-VAE) that combines variational autoencoders with structural causal models to generate counterfactual financial time series while preserving both temporal dependencies and causal relationships. Our approach enforces causal constraints through directed acyclic graphs in the decoder architecture and employs the causal Wasserstein distance for training. We validate our method on synthetic autoregressive models inspired by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, demonstrating superior performance in counterfactual probability estimation with L1 distances as low as 0.03-0.10 compared to ground truth. The model enables financial stress testing, scenario analysis, and enhanced backtesting by generating plausible counterfactual market trajectories that respect underlying causal mechanisms.

Foundation models have transformed domains from language to genomics by learning general-purpose representations from large-scale, heterogeneous data. We introduce TradeFM, a 524M-parameter generative Transformer that brings this paradigm to market microstructure, learning directly from billions of trade events across >9K equities. To enable cross-asset generalization, we develop scale-invariant features and a universal tokenization scheme that map the heterogeneous, multi-modal event stream of order flow into a unified discrete sequence -- eliminating asset-specific calibration. Integrated with a deterministic market simulator, TradeFM-generated rollouts reproduce key stylized facts of financial returns, including heavy tails, volatility clustering, and absence of return autocorrelation. Quantitatively, TradeFM achieves 2-3x lower distributional error than Compound Hawkes baselines and generalizes zero-shot to geographically out-of-distribution APAC markets with moderate perplexity degradation. Together, these results suggest that scale-invariant trade representations capture transferable structure in market microstructure, opening a path toward synthetic data generation, stress testing, and learning-based trading agents.

This paper explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) to generate financial reports from time series data. We propose a framework encompassing prompt engineering, model selection, and evaluation. We introduce an automated highlighting system to categorize information within the generated reports, differentiating between insights derived directly from time series data, stemming from financial reasoning, and those reliant on external knowledge. This approach aids in evaluating the factual grounding and reasoning capabilities of the models. Our experiments, utilizing both data from the real stock market indices and synthetic time series, demonstrate the capability of LLMs to produce coherent and informative financial reports.

This paper introduces PatchRefiner, an advanced framework for metric single image depth estimation aimed at high-resolution real-domain inputs. While depth estimation is crucial for applications such as autonomous driving, 3D generative modeling, and 3D reconstruction, achieving accurate high-resolution depth in real-world scenarios is challenging due to the constraints of existing architectures and the scarcity of detailed real-world depth data. PatchRefiner adopts a tile-based methodology, reconceptualizing high-resolution depth estimation as a refinement process, which results in notable performance enhancements. Utilizing a pseudo-labeling strategy that leverages synthetic data, PatchRefiner incorporates a Detail and Scale Disentangling (DSD) loss to enhance detail capture while maintaining scale accuracy, thus facilitating the effective transfer of knowledge from synthetic to real-world data. Our extensive evaluations demonstrate PatchRefiner's superior performance, significantly outperforming existing benchmarks on the Unreal4KStereo dataset by 18.1% in terms of the root mean squared error (RMSE) and showing marked improvements in detail accuracy and consistent scale estimation on diverse real-world datasets like CityScape, ScanNet++, and ETH3D.

Large-scale Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have transformed general-purpose visual recognition through strong zero-shot capabilities. However, their performance degrades significantly in niche, safety-critical domains such as industrial spill detection, where hazardous events are rare, sensitive, and difficult to annotate. This scarcity -- driven by privacy concerns, data sensitivity, and the infrequency of real incidents -- renders conventional fine-tuning of detectors infeasible for most industrial settings. We address this challenge by introducing a scalable framework centered on a high-quality synthetic data generation pipeline. We demonstrate that this synthetic corpus enables effective Parameter-Efficient Fine-Tuning (PEFT) of VLMs and substantially boosts the performance of state-of-the-art object detectors such as YOLO and DETR. Notably, in the absence of synthetic data (SynSpill dataset), VLMs still generalize better to unseen spill scenarios than these detectors. When SynSpill is used, both VLMs and detectors achieve marked improvements, with their performance becoming comparable. Our results underscore that high-fidelity synthetic data is a powerful means to bridge the domain gap in safety-critical applications. The combination of synthetic generation and lightweight adaptation offers a cost-effective, scalable pathway for deploying vision systems in industrial environments where real data is scarce/impractical to obtain. Project Page: https://synspill.vercel.app

Prediction markets are used in real life to predict outcomes of interest such as presidential elections. This paper presents a mathematical theory of artificial prediction markets for supervised learning of conditional probability estimators. The artificial prediction market is a novel method for fusing the prediction information of features or trained classifiers, where the fusion result is the contract price on the possible outcomes. The market can be trained online by updating the participants' budgets using training examples. Inspired by the real prediction markets, the equations that govern the market are derived from simple and reasonable assumptions. Efficient numerical algorithms are presented for solving these equations. The obtained artificial prediction market is shown to be a maximum likelihood estimator. It generalizes linear aggregation, existent in boosting and random forest, as well as logistic regression and some kernel methods. Furthermore, the market mechanism allows the aggregation of specialized classifiers that participate only on specific instances. Experimental comparisons show that the artificial prediction markets often outperform random forest and implicit online learning on synthetic data and real UCI datasets. Moreover, an extensive evaluation for pelvic and abdominal lymph node detection in CT data shows that the prediction market improves adaboost's detection rate from 79.6% to 81.2% at 3 false positives/volume.

The success of large-scale pre-training paradigm, exemplified by Large Language Models (LLMs), has inspired the development of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs). However, their application to financial candlestick (K-line) data remains limited, often underperforming non-pre-trained architectures. Moreover, existing TSFMs often overlook crucial downstream tasks such as volatility prediction and synthetic data generation. To address these limitations, we propose Kronos, a unified, scalable pre-training framework tailored to financial K-line modeling. Kronos introduces a specialized tokenizer that discretizes continuous market information into token sequences, preserving both price dynamics and trade activity patterns. We pre-train Kronos using an autoregressive objective on a massive, multi-market corpus of over 12 billion K-line records from 45 global exchanges, enabling it to learn nuanced temporal and cross-asset representations. Kronos excels in a zero-shot setting across a diverse set of financial tasks. On benchmark datasets, Kronos boosts price series forecasting RankIC by 93% over the leading TSFM and 87% over the best non-pre-trained baseline. It also achieves a 9% lower MAE in volatility forecasting and a 22% improvement in generative fidelity for synthetic K-line sequences. These results establish Kronos as a robust, versatile foundation model for end-to-end financial time series analysis. Our pre-trained model is publicly available at https://github.com/shiyu-coder/Kronos.

We present Surfer-H, a cost-efficient web agent that integrates Vision-Language Models (VLM) to perform user-defined tasks on the web. We pair it with Holo1, a new open-weight collection of VLMs specialized in web navigation and information extraction. Holo1 was trained on carefully curated data sources, including open-access web content, synthetic examples, and self-produced agentic data. Holo1 tops generalist User Interface (UI) benchmarks as well as our new web UI localization benchmark, WebClick. When powered by Holo1, Surfer-H achieves a 92.2% state-of-the-art performance on WebVoyager, striking a Pareto-optimal balance between accuracy and cost-efficiency. To accelerate research advancement in agentic systems, we are open-sourcing both our WebClick evaluation dataset and the Holo1 model weights.

We tackle the problem of highly-accurate, holistic performance capture for the face, body and hands simultaneously. Motion-capture technologies used in film and game production typically focus only on face, body or hand capture independently, involve complex and expensive hardware and a high degree of manual intervention from skilled operators. While machine-learning-based approaches exist to overcome these problems, they usually only support a single camera, often operate on a single part of the body, do not produce precise world-space results, and rarely generalize outside specific contexts. In this work, we introduce the first technique for marker-free, high-quality reconstruction of the complete human body, including eyes and tongue, without requiring any calibration, manual intervention or custom hardware. Our approach produces stable world-space results from arbitrary camera rigs as well as supporting varied capture environments and clothing. We achieve this through a hybrid approach that leverages machine learning models trained exclusively on synthetic data and powerful parametric models of human shape and motion. We evaluate our method on a number of body, face and hand reconstruction benchmarks and demonstrate state-of-the-art results that generalize on diverse datasets.

The success of AI models relies on the availability of large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which can be challenging to obtain due to data scarcity, privacy concerns, and high costs. Synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution by generating artificial data that mimics real-world patterns. This paper provides an overview of synthetic data research, discussing its applications, challenges, and future directions. We present empirical evidence from prior art to demonstrate its effectiveness and highlight the importance of ensuring its factuality, fidelity, and unbiasedness. We emphasize the need for responsible use of synthetic data to build more powerful, inclusive, and trustworthy language models.

Machine learning development critically depends on access to high-quality data. However, increasing restrictions due to privacy, proprietary interests, and ethical concerns have created significant barriers to data accessibility. Synthetic data offers a viable solution by enabling safe, broad data usage without compromising sensitive information. This paper presents the MOSTLY AI Synthetic Data Software Development Kit (SDK), an open-source toolkit designed specifically for synthesizing high-quality tabular data. The SDK integrates robust features such as differential privacy guarantees, fairness-aware data generation, and automated quality assurance into a flexible and accessible Python interface. Leveraging the TabularARGN autoregressive framework, the SDK supports diverse data types and complex multi-table and sequential datasets, delivering competitive performance with notable improvements in speed and usability. Currently deployed both as a cloud service and locally installable software, the SDK has seen rapid adoption, highlighting its practicality in addressing real-world data bottlenecks and promoting widespread data democratization.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful way to adapt foundation models to specialized tasks, but its reliance on large-scale human-labeled data limits broad adoption. We introduce Synthetic Data RL, a simple and general framework that reinforcement fine-tunes models using only synthetic data generated from a task definition. Our method first generates question and answer pairs from the task definition and retrieved documents, then adapts the difficulty of the question based on model solvability, and selects questions using the average pass rate of the model across samples for RL training. On Qwen-2.5-7B, our method achieves a 29.2% absolute improvement over the base model on GSM8K (+2.9 pp vs. instruction-tuned, +6.6 pp vs. Self-Instruct), 8.7% on MATH, 13.1% on GPQA (+7.0 pp vs. SynthLLM), 8.9% on MedQA, 17.7% on CQA (law) and 13.7% on CFA (finance). It surpasses supervised fine-tuning under the same data budget and nearly matches RL with full human data across datasets (e.g., +17.2 pp on GSM8K). Adding 100 human demonstrations improves the performance of GSM8K only by 0.4 pp, showing a limited added value. By reducing human data annotation, Synthetic Data RL enables scalable and efficient RL-based model adaptation. Code and demos are available at https://github.com/gydpku/Data_Synthesis_RL/.

Synthetic data is emerging as one of the most promising solutions to share individual-level data while safeguarding privacy. While membership inference attacks (MIAs), based on shadow modeling, have become the standard to evaluate the privacy of synthetic data, they currently assume the attacker to have access to an auxiliary dataset sampled from a similar distribution as the training dataset. This is often seen as a very strong assumption in practice, especially as the proposed main use cases for synthetic tabular data (e.g. medical data, financial transactions) are very specific and don't have any reference datasets directly available. We here show how this assumption can be removed, allowing for MIAs to be performed using only the synthetic data. Specifically, we developed three different scenarios: (S1) Black-box access to the generator, (S2) only access to the released synthetic dataset and (S3) a theoretical setup as upper bound for the attack performance using only synthetic data. Our results show that MIAs are still successful, across two real-world datasets and two synthetic data generators. These results show how the strong hypothesis made when auditing synthetic data releases - access to an auxiliary dataset - can be relaxed, making the attacks more realistic in practice.

With the widespread digitization of finance and the increasing popularity of cryptocurrencies, the sophistication of fraud schemes devised by cybercriminals is growing. Money laundering -- the movement of illicit funds to conceal their origins -- can cross bank and national boundaries, producing complex transaction patterns. The UN estimates 2-5\% of global GDP or \0.8 - 2.0 trillion dollars are laundered globally each year. Unfortunately, real data to train machine learning models to detect laundering is generally not available, and previous synthetic data generators have had significant shortcomings. A realistic, standardized, publicly-available benchmark is needed for comparing models and for the advancement of the area. To this end, this paper contributes a synthetic financial transaction dataset generator and a set of synthetically generated AML (Anti-Money Laundering) datasets. We have calibrated this agent-based generator to match real transactions as closely as possible and made the datasets public. We describe the generator in detail and demonstrate how the datasets generated can help compare different machine learning models in terms of their AML abilities. In a key way, using synthetic data in these comparisons can be even better than using real data: the ground truth labels are complete, whilst many laundering transactions in real data are never detected.

Given the huge volume of cross-border flows, effective and efficient control of trade becomes more crucial in protecting people and society from illicit trade. However, limited accessibility of the transaction-level trade datasets hinders the progress of open research, and lots of customs administrations have not benefited from the recent progress in data-based risk management. In this paper, we introduce an import declaration dataset to facilitate the collaboration between domain experts in customs administrations and researchers from diverse domains, such as data science and machine learning. The dataset contains 54,000 artificially generated trades with 22 key attributes, and it is synthesized with conditional tabular GAN while maintaining correlated features. Synthetic data has several advantages. First, releasing the dataset is free from restrictions that do not allow disclosing the original import data. The fabrication step minimizes the possible identity risk which may exist in trade statistics. Second, the published data follow a similar distribution to the source data so that it can be used in various downstream tasks. Hence, our dataset can be used as a benchmark for testing the performance of any classification algorithm. With the provision of data and its generation process, we open baseline codes for fraud detection tasks, as we empirically show that more advanced algorithms can better detect fraud.

The use of synthetic data has played a critical role in recent state-of-art breakthroughs. However, overly relying on a single oracle teacher model to generate data has been shown to lead to model collapse and invite propagation of biases. These limitations are particularly evident in multilingual settings, where the absence of a universally effective teacher model that excels across all languages presents significant challenges. In this work, we address these extreme difference by introducing "multilingual arbitrage", which capitalizes on performance variations between multiple models for a given language. To do so, we strategically route samples through a diverse pool of models, each with unique strengths in different languages. Across exhaustive experiments on state-of-art models, our work suggests that arbitrage techniques allow for spectacular gains in performance that far outperform relying on a single teacher. In particular, compared to the best single teacher, we observe gains of up to 56.5% improvement in win rates averaged across all languages when switching to multilingual arbitrage. We observe the most significant gains for the least resourced languages in our pool.

Existing private synthetic data generation algorithms are agnostic to downstream tasks. However, end users may have specific requirements that the synthetic data must satisfy. Failure to meet these requirements could significantly reduce the utility of the data for downstream use. We introduce a post-processing technique that improves the utility of the synthetic data with respect to measures selected by the end user, while preserving strong privacy guarantees and dataset quality. Our technique involves resampling from the synthetic data to filter out samples that do not meet the selected utility measures, using an efficient stochastic first-order algorithm to find optimal resampling weights. Through comprehensive numerical experiments, we demonstrate that our approach consistently improves the utility of synthetic data across multiple benchmark datasets and state-of-the-art synthetic data generation algorithms.

Synthetic data has been proposed as a solution to address the issue of high-quality data scarcity in the training of large language models (LLMs). Studies have shown that synthetic data can effectively improve the performance of LLMs on downstream benchmarks. However, despite its potential benefits, our analysis suggests that there may be inherent flaws in synthetic data. The uniform format of synthetic data can lead to pattern overfitting and cause significant shifts in the output distribution, thereby reducing the model's instruction-following capabilities. Our work delves into these specific flaws associated with question-answer (Q-A) pairs, a prevalent type of synthetic data, and presents a method based on unlearning techniques to mitigate these flaws. The empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which can reverse the instruction-following issues caused by pattern overfitting without compromising performance on benchmarks at relatively low cost. Our work has yielded key insights into the effective use of synthetic data, aiming to promote more robust and efficient LLM training.

In the current data driven era, synthetic data, artificially generated data that resembles the characteristics of real world data without containing actual personal information, is gaining prominence. This is due to its potential to safeguard privacy, increase the availability of data for research, and reduce bias in machine learning models. This paper investigates the policies governing the creation, utilization, and dissemination of synthetic data. Synthetic data can be a powerful instrument for protecting the privacy of individuals, but it also presents challenges, such as ensuring its quality and authenticity. A well crafted synthetic data policy must strike a balance between privacy concerns and the utility of data, ensuring that it can be utilized effectively without compromising ethical or legal standards. Organizations and institutions must develop standardized guidelines and best practices in order to capitalize on the benefits of synthetic data while addressing its inherent challenges.

Data collected from the real world tends to be biased, unbalanced, and at risk of exposing sensitive and private information. This reality has given rise to the idea of creating synthetic datasets to alleviate risk, bias, harm, and privacy concerns inherent in the real data. This concept relies on Generative AI models to produce unbiased, privacy-preserving synthetic data while being true to the real data. In this new paradigm, how can we tell if this approach delivers on its promises? We present an auditing framework that offers a holistic assessment of synthetic datasets and AI models trained on them, centered around bias and discrimination prevention, fidelity to the real data, utility, robustness, and privacy preservation. We showcase our framework by auditing multiple generative models on diverse use cases, including education, healthcare, banking, human resources, and across different modalities, from tabular, to time-series, to natural language. Our use cases demonstrate the importance of a holistic assessment in order to ensure compliance with socio-technical safeguards that regulators and policymakers are increasingly enforcing. For this purpose, we introduce the trust index that ranks multiple synthetic datasets based on their prescribed safeguards and their desired trade-offs. Moreover, we devise a trust-index-driven model selection and cross-validation procedure via auditing in the training loop that we showcase on a class of transformer models that we dub TrustFormers, across different modalities. This trust-driven model selection allows for controllable trust trade-offs in the resulting synthetic data. We instrument our auditing framework with workflows that connect different stakeholders from model development to audit and certification via a synthetic data auditing report.

Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite significant efforts to build real-world simulators, the application of generative models to virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains under-explored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate complex market effects of participants with various behaviors, enabling interaction under different market conditions, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the domain-specific need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key observations include LMM's strong scalability across data size and model complexity, and MarS's robust and practicable realism in controlled generation with market impact. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment, thus demonstrating MarS's "paradigm shift" potential for a variety of financial applications. We release the code of MarS at https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/.

Generative models such as Large Language Models, Diffusion Models, and generative adversarial networks have recently revolutionized the creation of synthetic data, offering scalable solutions to data scarcity, privacy, and annotation challenges in data mining. This tutorial introduces the foundations and latest advances in synthetic data generation, covers key methodologies and practical frameworks, and discusses evaluation strategies and applications. Attendees will gain actionable insights into leveraging generative synthetic data to enhance data mining research and practice. More information can be found on our website: https://syndata4dm.github.io/.

Generating synthetic data that faithfully captures the statistical structure of real-world distributions is a fundamental challenge in data modeling. Classical approaches often depend on strong parametric assumptions or manual structural design and struggle in high-dimensional or heterogeneous domains. Recent progress in Large Language Models (LLMs) reveals their potential as flexible, high-dimensional priors over real-world distributions. However, when applied to data synthesis, standard LLM-based sampling is inefficient, constrained by fixed context limits, and fails to ensure statistical alignment. Given this, we introduce LLMSynthor, a general framework for data synthesis that transforms LLMs into structure-aware simulators guided by distributional feedback. LLMSynthor treats the LLM as a nonparametric copula simulator for modeling high-order dependencies and introduces LLM Proposal Sampling to generate grounded proposal distributions that improve sampling efficiency without requiring rejection. By minimizing discrepancies in the summary statistics space, the iterative synthesis loop aligns real and synthetic data while gradually uncovering and refining the latent generative structure. We evaluate LLMSynthor in both controlled and real-world settings using heterogeneous datasets in privacy-sensitive domains (e.g., e-commerce, population, and mobility) that encompass both structured and unstructured formats. The synthetic data produced by LLMSynthor shows high statistical fidelity, practical utility, and cross-data adaptability, positioning it as a valuable tool across economics, social science, urban studies, and beyond.

Prediction markets allow users to trade on outcomes of real-world events, but are prone to fragmentation through overlapping questions, implicit equivalences, and hidden contradictions across markets. We present an agentic AI pipeline that autonomously (i) clusters markets into coherent topical groups using natural-language understanding over contract text and metadata, and (ii) identifies within-cluster market pairs whose resolved outcomes exhibit strong dependence, including same-outcome (correlated) and different-outcome (anti-correlated) relationships. Using a historical dataset of resolved markets on Polymarket, we evaluate the accuracy of the agent's relational predictions. We then translate discovered relationships into a simple trading strategy to quantify how these relationships map to actionable signals. Results show that agent-identified relationships achieve roughly 60-70% accuracy, and their induced trading strategies earn about 20% average returns over week-long horizons, highlighting the ability of agentic AI and large language models to uncover latent semantic structure in prediction markets.

Data is the driving force of machine learning, with the amount and quality of training data often being more important for the performance of a system than architecture and training details. But collecting, processing and annotating real data at scale is difficult, expensive, and frequently raises additional privacy, fairness and legal concerns. Synthetic data is a powerful tool with the potential to address these shortcomings: 1) it is cheap 2) supports rich ground-truth annotations 3) offers full control over data and 4) can circumvent or mitigate problems regarding bias, privacy and licensing. Unfortunately, software tools for effective data generation are less mature than those for architecture design and training, which leads to fragmented generation efforts. To address these problems we introduce Kubric, an open-source Python framework that interfaces with PyBullet and Blender to generate photo-realistic scenes, with rich annotations, and seamlessly scales to large jobs distributed over thousands of machines, and generating TBs of data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of Kubric by presenting a series of 13 different generated datasets for tasks ranging from studying 3D NeRF models to optical flow estimation. We release Kubric, the used assets, all of the generation code, as well as the rendered datasets for reuse and modification.

This research delves into the construction and utilization of synthetic datasets, specifically within the telematics sphere, leveraging OpenAI's powerful language model, ChatGPT. Synthetic datasets present an effective solution to challenges pertaining to data privacy, scarcity, and control over variables - characteristics that make them particularly valuable for research pursuits. The utility of these datasets, however, largely depends on their quality, measured through the lenses of diversity, relevance, and coherence. To illustrate this data creation process, a hands-on case study is conducted, focusing on the generation of a synthetic telematics dataset. The experiment involved an iterative guidance of ChatGPT, progressively refining prompts and culminating in the creation of a comprehensive dataset for a hypothetical urban planning scenario in Columbus, Ohio. Upon generation, the synthetic dataset was subjected to an evaluation, focusing on the previously identified quality parameters and employing descriptive statistics and visualization techniques for a thorough analysis. Despite synthetic datasets not serving as perfect replacements for actual world data, their potential in specific use-cases, when executed with precision, is significant. This research underscores the potential of AI models like ChatGPT in enhancing data availability for complex sectors like telematics, thus paving the way for a myriad of new research opportunities.

The widespread adoption of dynamic Time-of-Use (dToU) electricity tariffs requires accurately identifying households that would benefit from such pricing structures. However, the use of real consumption data poses serious privacy concerns, motivating the adoption of synthetic alternatives. In this study, we conduct a comparative evaluation of four synthetic data generation methods, Wasserstein-GP Generative Adversarial Networks (WGAN), Conditional Tabular GAN (CTGAN), Diffusion Models, and Gaussian noise augmentation, under different synthetic regimes. We assess classification utility, distribution fidelity, and privacy leakage. Our results show that architectural design plays a key role: diffusion models achieve the highest utility (macro-F1 up to 88.2%), while CTGAN provide the strongest resistance to reconstruction attacks. These findings highlight the potential of structured generative models for developing privacy-preserving, data-driven energy systems.

Access to real-world medical data is often restricted due to privacy regulations, posing a significant barrier to the advancement of healthcare research. Synthetic data offers a promising alternative; however, generating realistic, clinically valid, and privacy-conscious records remains a major challenge. Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) offer new opportunities for structured data generation; however, existing approaches frequently lack systematic prompting strategies and comprehensive, multi-dimensional evaluation frameworks. In this paper, we present SynLLM, a modular framework for generating high-quality synthetic medical tabular data using 20 state-of-the-art open-source LLMs, including LLaMA, Mistral, and GPT variants, guided by structured prompts. We propose four distinct prompt types, ranging from example-driven to rule-based constraints, that encode schema, metadata, and domain knowledge to control generation without model fine-tuning. Our framework features a comprehensive evaluation pipeline that rigorously assesses generated data across statistical fidelity, clinical consistency, and privacy preservation. We evaluate SynLLM across three public medical datasets, including Diabetes, Cirrhosis, and Stroke, using 20 open-source LLMs. Our results show that prompt engineering significantly impacts data quality and privacy risk, with rule-based prompts achieving the best privacy-quality balance. SynLLM establishes that, when guided by well-designed prompts and evaluated with robust, multi-metric criteria, LLMs can generate synthetic medical data that is both clinically plausible and privacy-aware, paving the way for safer and more effective data sharing in healthcare research.

Synthetic data is a standard component in training large language models, yet systematic comparisons across design dimensions, including rephrasing strategy, generator model, and source data, remain absent. We conduct extensive controlled experiments, generating over one trillion tokens, to identify critical factors in rephrasing web text into synthetic pretraining data. Our results reveal that structured output formats, such as tables, math problems, FAQs, and tutorials, consistently outperform both curated web baselines and prior synthetic methods. Notably, increasing the size of the generator model beyond 1B parameters provides no additional benefit. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of the original data used for mixing substantially influences performance. By applying our findings, we develop \textsc{FinePhrase}, a 486-billion-token open dataset of rephrased web text. We show that FinePhrase outperforms all existing synthetic data baselines while reducing generation costs by up to 30 times. We provide the dataset, all prompts, and the generation framework to the research community.

Synthetic data is widely adopted in embedding models to ensure diversity in training data distributions across dimensions such as difficulty, length, and language. However, existing prompt-based synthesis methods struggle to capture domain-specific data distributions, particularly in data-scarce domains, and often overlook fine-grained relevance diversity. In this paper, we present a Chinese short video dataset with 4-level relevance annotations, filling a critical resource void. Further, we propose a semi-supervised synthetic data pipeline where two collaboratively trained models generate domain-adaptive short video data with controllable relevance labels. Our method enhances relevance-level diversity by synthesizing samples for underrepresented intermediate relevance labels, resulting in a more balanced and semantically rich training data set. Extensive offline experiments show that the embedding model trained on our synthesized data outperforms those using data generated based on prompting or vanilla supervised fine-tuning(SFT). Moreover, we demonstrate that incorporating more diverse fine-grained relevance levels in training data enhances the model's sensitivity to subtle semantic distinctions, highlighting the value of fine-grained relevance supervision in embedding learning. In the search enhanced recommendation pipeline of Douyin's dual-column scenario, through online A/B testing, the proposed model increased click-through rate(CTR) by 1.45%, raised the proportion of Strong Relevance Ratio (SRR) by 4.9%, and improved the Image User Penetration Rate (IUPR) by 0.1054%.

Tabular datasets are ubiquitous in data science applications. Given their importance, it seems natural to apply state-of-the-art deep learning algorithms in order to fully unlock their potential. Here we propose neural network models that represent tabular time series that can optionally leverage their hierarchical structure. This results in two architectures for tabular time series: one for learning representations that is analogous to BERT and can be pre-trained end-to-end and used in downstream tasks, and one that is akin to GPT and can be used for generation of realistic synthetic tabular sequences. We demonstrate our models on two datasets: a synthetic credit card transaction dataset, where the learned representations are used for fraud detection and synthetic data generation, and on a real pollution dataset, where the learned encodings are used to predict atmospheric pollutant concentrations. Code and data are available at https://github.com/IBM/TabFormer.

Most economic theories typically assume that financial market participants are fully rational individuals and use mathematical models to simulate human behavior in financial markets. However, human behavior is often not entirely rational and is challenging to predict accurately with mathematical models. In this paper, we propose Agent-based Simulated Financial Market (ASFM), which first constructs a simulated stock market with a real order matching system. Then, we propose a large language model based agent as the stock trader, which contains the profile, observation, and tool-learning based action module. The trading agent can comprehensively understand current market dynamics and financial policy information, and make decisions that align with their trading strategy. In the experiments, we first verify that the reactions of our ASFM are consistent with the real stock market in two controllable scenarios. In addition, we also conduct experiments in two popular economics research directions, and we find that conclusions drawn in our \model align with the preliminary findings in economics research. Based on these observations, we believe our proposed ASFM provides a new paradigm for economic research.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across diverse tasks, largely driven by high-quality web data used in pre-training. However, recent studies indicate this data source is rapidly depleting. Synthetic data emerges as a promising alternative, but it remains unclear whether synthetic datasets exhibit predictable scalability comparable to raw pre-training data. In this work, we systematically investigate the scaling laws of synthetic data by introducing SynthLLM, a scalable framework that transforms pre-training corpora into diverse, high-quality synthetic datasets. Our approach achieves this by automatically extracting and recombining high-level concepts across multiple documents using a graph algorithm. Key findings from our extensive mathematical experiments on SynthLLM include: (1) SynthLLM generates synthetic data that reliably adheres to the rectified scaling law across various model sizes; (2) Performance improvements plateau near 300B tokens; and (3) Larger models approach optimal performance with fewer training tokens. For instance, an 8B model peaks at 1T tokens, while a 3B model requires 4T. Moreover, comparisons with existing synthetic data generation and augmentation methods demonstrate that SynthLLM achieves superior performance and scalability. Our findings highlight synthetic data as a scalable and reliable alternative to organic pre-training corpora, offering a viable path toward continued improvement in model performance.

Generating synthetic data through generative models is gaining interest in the ML community and beyond, promising a future where datasets can be tailored to individual needs. Unfortunately, synthetic data is usually not perfect, resulting in potential errors in downstream tasks. In this work we explore how the generative process affects the downstream ML task. We show that the naive synthetic data approach -- using synthetic data as if it is real -- leads to downstream models and analyses that do not generalize well to real data. As a first step towards better ML in the synthetic data regime, we introduce Deep Generative Ensemble (DGE) -- a framework inspired by Deep Ensembles that aims to implicitly approximate the posterior distribution over the generative process model parameters. DGE improves downstream model training, evaluation, and uncertainty quantification, vastly outperforming the naive approach on average. The largest improvements are achieved for minority classes and low-density regions of the original data, for which the generative uncertainty is largest.

As Deep Learning algorithms continue to evolve and become more sophisticated, they require massive datasets for model training and efficacy of models. Some of those data requirements can be met with the help of existing datasets within the organizations. Current Machine Learning practices can be leveraged to generate synthetic data from an existing dataset. Further, it is well established that diversity in generated synthetic data relies on (and is perhaps limited by) statistical properties of available dataset within a single organization or entity. The more diverse an existing dataset is, the more expressive and generic synthetic data can be. However, given the scarcity of underlying data, it is challenging to collate big data in one organization. The diverse, non-overlapping dataset across distinct organizations provides an opportunity for them to contribute their limited distinct data to a larger pool that can be leveraged to further synthesize. Unfortunately, this raises data privacy concerns that some institutions may not be comfortable with. This paper proposes a novel approach to generate synthetic data - FedSyn. FedSyn is a collaborative, privacy preserving approach to generate synthetic data among multiple participants in a federated and collaborative network. FedSyn creates a synthetic data generation model, which can generate synthetic data consisting of statistical distribution of almost all the participants in the network. FedSyn does not require access to the data of an individual participant, hence protecting the privacy of participant's data. The proposed technique in this paper leverages federated machine learning and generative adversarial network (GAN) as neural network architecture for synthetic data generation. The proposed method can be extended to many machine learning problem classes in finance, health, governance, technology and many more.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) research often aims to develop models that can generalize reliably across complex datasets, yet this remains challenging in fields where data is scarce, intricate, or inaccessible. This paper introduces a novel approach that leverages three generative models of varying complexity to synthesize one of the most demanding structured datasets: Malicious Network Traffic. Our approach uniquely transforms numerical data into text, re-framing data generation as a language modeling task, which not only enhances data regularization but also significantly improves generalization and the quality of the synthetic data. Extensive statistical analyses demonstrate that our method surpasses state-of-the-art generative models in producing high-fidelity synthetic data. Additionally, we conduct a comprehensive study on synthetic data applications, effectiveness, and evaluation strategies, offering valuable insights into its role across various domains. Our code and pre-trained models are openly accessible at Github, enabling further exploration and application of our methodology. Index Terms: Data synthesis, machine learning, traffic generation, privacy preserving data, generative models.

Recent improvements in synthetic data generation make it possible to produce images that are highly photorealistic and indistinguishable from real ones. Furthermore, synthetic generation pipelines have the potential to generate an unlimited number of images. The combination of high photorealism and scale turn the synthetic data into a promising candidate for potentially improving various machine learning (ML) pipelines. Thus far, a large body of research in this field has focused on using synthetic images for training, by augmenting and enlarging training data. In contrast to using synthetic data for training, in this work we explore whether synthetic data can be beneficial for model selection. Considering the task of image classification, we demonstrate that when data is scarce, synthetic data can be used to replace the held out validation set, thus allowing to train on a larger dataset.

Tabular data is a common form of organizing data. Multiple models are available to generate synthetic tabular datasets where observations are independent, but few have the ability to produce relational datasets. Modeling relational data is challenging as it requires modeling both a "parent" table and its relationships across tables. We introduce REaLTabFormer (Realistic Relational and Tabular Transformer), a tabular and relational synthetic data generation model. It first creates a parent table using an autoregressive GPT-2 model, then generates the relational dataset conditioned on the parent table using a sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) model. We implement target masking to prevent data copying and propose the Q_{delta} statistic and statistical bootstrapping to detect overfitting. Experiments using real-world datasets show that REaLTabFormer captures the relational structure better than a baseline model. REaLTabFormer also achieves state-of-the-art results on prediction tasks, "out-of-the-box", for large non-relational datasets without needing fine-tuning.

Recent smaller language models such Phi-3.5 and Phi-4 rely on synthetic data generated using larger Language models. Questions remain about leveraging synthetic data for other use cases, such as adapting LLMs to specific domains. A key limitation of synthetic data is low diversity, which negatively impacts its downstream applicability for improving other models. To address this, we propose MetaSynth, a method for generating synthetic data that enhances diversity through meta-prompting, where a language model orchestrates multiple "expert" LLM agents to collaboratively generate data. Using only 25 million tokens of synthetic data generated with MetaSynth, we successfully adapt a well-trained LLM (Mistral-7B-v0.3) to two specialized domains-Finance and Biomedicine-without compromising the capabilities of the resulting model in general tasks. In addition, we evaluate the diversity of our synthetic data using seven automated metrics, and find that it approaches the diversity of LLM pre-training corpora. Continually pre-training Mistral-7B-v0.3 with MetaSynth notably outperforms the base LLM, showing improvements of up to 4.08% in Finance and 13.75% in Biomedicine. The same model shows degraded performance when trained on data generated using a template prompt, even when the template includes prior generations and varying In-Context exemplars of real data. Our findings suggest that a few million tokens of diverse synthetic data without mixing any real data, is sufficient for effective domain adaptation when using MetaSynth.

Synthetic data is becoming increasingly important for accelerating the development of language models, both large and small. Despite several successful use cases, researchers also raised concerns around model collapse and drawbacks of imitating other models. This discrepancy can be attributed to the fact that synthetic data varies in quality and diversity. Effective use of synthetic data usually requires significant human effort in curating the data. We focus on using synthetic data for post-training, specifically creating data by powerful models to teach a new skill or behavior to another model, we refer to this setting as Generative Teaching. We introduce AgentInstruct, an extensible agentic framework for automatically creating large amounts of diverse and high-quality synthetic data. AgentInstruct can create both the prompts and responses, using only raw data sources like text documents and code files as seeds. We demonstrate the utility of AgentInstruct by creating a post training dataset of 25M pairs to teach language models different skills, such as text editing, creative writing, tool usage, coding, reading comprehension, etc. The dataset can be used for instruction tuning of any base model. We post-train Mistral-7b with the data. When comparing the resulting model Orca-3 to Mistral-7b-Instruct (which uses the same base model), we observe significant improvements across many benchmarks. For example, 40% improvement on AGIEval, 19% improvement on MMLU, 54% improvement on GSM8K, 38% improvement on BBH and 45% improvement on AlpacaEval. Additionally, it consistently outperforms other models such as LLAMA-8B-instruct and GPT-3.5-turbo.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Visual recognition models are prone to learning spurious correlations induced by a biased training set where certain conditions B (\eg, Indoors) are over-represented in certain classes Y (\eg, Big Dogs). Synthetic data from off-the-shelf large-scale generative models offers a promising direction to mitigate this issue by augmenting underrepresented subgroups in the real dataset. However, by using a mixed distribution of real and synthetic data, we introduce another source of bias due to distributional differences between synthetic and real data (\eg synthetic artifacts). As we will show, prior work's approach for using synthetic data to resolve the model's bias toward B do not correct the model's bias toward the pair (B, G), where G denotes whether the sample is real or synthetic. Thus, the model could simply learn signals based on the pair (B, G) (\eg, Synthetic Indoors) to make predictions about Y (\eg, Big Dogs). To address this issue, we propose a simple, easy-to-implement, two-step training pipeline that we call From Fake to Real (FFR). The first step of FFR pre-trains a model on balanced synthetic data to learn robust representations across subgroups. In the second step, FFR fine-tunes the model on real data using ERM or common loss-based bias mitigation methods. By training on real and synthetic data separately, FFR does not expose the model to the statistical differences between real and synthetic data and thus avoids the issue of bias toward the pair (B, G). Our experiments show that FFR improves worst group accuracy over the state-of-the-art by up to 20\% over three datasets. Code available: https://github.com/mqraitem/From-Fake-to-Real

Evaluating the quality of synthetic data remains a key challenge for ensuring privacy and utility in data-driven research. In this work, we present an evaluation framework that quantifies how well synthetic data replicates original distributional properties while ensuring privacy. The proposed approach employs a holdout-based benchmarking strategy that facilitates quantitative assessment through low- and high-dimensional distribution comparisons, embedding-based similarity measures, and nearest-neighbor distance metrics. The framework supports various data types and structures, including sequential and contextual information, and enables interpretable quality diagnostics through a set of standardized metrics. These contributions aim to support reproducibility and methodological consistency in benchmarking of synthetic data generation techniques. The code of the framework is available at https://github.com/mostly-ai/mostlyai-qa.

The rapid advancements in generative AI and large language models (LLMs) have opened up new avenues for producing synthetic data, particularly in the realm of structured tabular formats, such as product reviews. Despite the potential benefits, concerns regarding privacy leakage have surfaced, especially when personal information is utilized in the training datasets. In addition, there is an absence of a comprehensive evaluation framework capable of quantitatively measuring the quality of the generated synthetic data and their utility for downstream tasks. In response to this gap, we introduce SynEval, an open-source evaluation framework designed to assess the fidelity, utility, and privacy preservation of synthetically generated tabular data via a suite of diverse evaluation metrics. We validate the efficacy of our proposed framework - SynEval - by applying it to synthetic product review data generated by three state-of-the-art LLMs: ChatGPT, Claude, and Llama. Our experimental findings illuminate the trade-offs between various evaluation metrics in the context of synthetic data generation. Furthermore, SynEval stands as a critical instrument for researchers and practitioners engaged with synthetic tabular data,, empowering them to judiciously determine the suitability of the generated data for their specific applications, with an emphasis on upholding user privacy.

Deep neural networks have brought remarkable breakthroughs in medical image analysis. However, due to their data-hungry nature, the modest dataset sizes in medical imaging projects might be hindering their full potential. Generating synthetic data provides a promising alternative, allowing to complement training datasets and conducting medical image research at a larger scale. Diffusion models recently have caught the attention of the computer vision community by producing photorealistic synthetic images. In this study, we explore using Latent Diffusion Models to generate synthetic images from high-resolution 3D brain images. We used T1w MRI images from the UK Biobank dataset (N=31,740) to train our models to learn about the probabilistic distribution of brain images, conditioned on covariables, such as age, sex, and brain structure volumes. We found that our models created realistic data, and we could use the conditioning variables to control the data generation effectively. Besides that, we created a synthetic dataset with 100,000 brain images and made it openly available to the scientific community.

Although machine learning tasks are highly sensitive to the quality of input data, relevant datasets can often be challenging for firms to acquire, especially when held privately by a variety of owners. For instance, if these owners are competitors in a downstream market, they may be reluctant to share information. Focusing on supervised learning for regression tasks, we develop a regression market to provide a monetary incentive for data sharing. Our mechanism adopts a Bayesian framework, allowing us to consider a more general class of regression tasks. We present a thorough exploration of the market properties, and show that similar proposals in literature expose the market agents to sizeable financial risks, which can be mitigated in our setup.

Recent text-to-image generation models have shown promising results in generating high-fidelity photo-realistic images. Though the results are astonishing to human eyes, how applicable these generated images are for recognition tasks remains under-explored. In this work, we extensively study whether and how synthetic images generated from state-of-the-art text-to-image generation models can be used for image recognition tasks, and focus on two perspectives: synthetic data for improving classification models in data-scarce settings (i.e. zero-shot and few-shot), and synthetic data for large-scale model pre-training for transfer learning. We showcase the powerfulness and shortcomings of synthetic data from existing generative models, and propose strategies for better applying synthetic data for recognition tasks. Code: https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/SyntheticData.

Deep learning in computer vision has achieved great success with the price of large-scale labeled training data. However, exhaustive data annotation is impracticable for each task of all domains of interest, due to high labor costs and unguaranteed labeling accuracy. Besides, the uncontrollable data collection process produces non-IID training and test data, where undesired duplication may exist. All these nuisances may hinder the verification of typical theories and exposure to new findings. To circumvent them, an alternative is to generate synthetic data via 3D rendering with domain randomization. We in this work push forward along this line by doing profound and extensive research on bare supervised learning and downstream domain adaptation. Specifically, under the well-controlled, IID data setting enabled by 3D rendering, we systematically verify the typical, important learning insights, e.g., shortcut learning, and discover the new laws of various data regimes and network architectures in generalization. We further investigate the effect of image formation factors on generalization, e.g., object scale, material texture, illumination, camera viewpoint, and background in a 3D scene. Moreover, we use the simulation-to-reality adaptation as a downstream task for comparing the transferability between synthetic and real data when used for pre-training, which demonstrates that synthetic data pre-training is also promising to improve real test results. Lastly, to promote future research, we develop a new large-scale synthetic-to-real benchmark for image classification, termed S2RDA, which provides more significant challenges for transfer from simulation to reality. The code and datasets are available at https://github.com/huitangtang/On_the_Utility_of_Synthetic_Data.

Large-scale and categorical-balanced text data is essential for training effective Scene Text Recognition (STR) models, which is hard to achieve when collecting real data. Synthetic data offers a cost-effective and perfectly labeled alternative. However, its performance often lags behind, revealing a significant domain gap between real and current synthetic data. In this work, we systematically analyze mainstream rendering-based synthetic datasets and identify their key limitations: insufficient diversity in corpus, font, and layout, which restricts their realism in complex scenarios. To address these issues, we introduce UnionST, a strong data engine synthesizes text covering a union of challenging samples and better aligns with the complexity observed in the wild. We then construct UnionST-S, a large-scale synthetic dataset with improved simulations in challenging scenarios. Furthermore, we develop a self-evolution learning (SEL) framework for effective real data annotation. Experiments show that models trained on UnionST-S achieve significant improvements over existing synthetic datasets. They even surpass real-data performance in certain scenarios. Moreover, when using SEL, the trained models achieve competitive performance by only seeing 9% of real data labels.

Differentially private (DP) synthetic data generation is a promising technique for utilizing private datasets that otherwise cannot be exposed for model training or other analytics. While much research literature has focused on generating private unstructured text and image data, in enterprise settings, structured data (e.g., tabular) is more common, often including natural language fields or components. Existing synthetic data evaluation techniques (e.g., FID) struggle to capture the structural properties and correlations of such datasets. In this work, we propose Struct-Bench, a framework and benchmark for evaluating synthetic datasets derived from structured datasets that contain natural language data. The Struct-Bench framework requires users to provide a representation of their dataset structure as a Context-Free Grammar (CFG). Our benchmark comprises 5 real-world and 2 synthetically generated datasets, each annotated with CFGs. We show that these datasets demonstrably present a great challenge even for state-of-the-art DP synthetic data generation methods. Struct-Bench also includes reference implementations of different metrics and a leaderboard, thereby providing researchers a standardized evaluation platform to benchmark and investigate privacy-preserving synthetic data generation methods. Further, we also present a case study showing how to use Struct-Bench to improve the synthetic data quality of Private Evolution (PE) on structured data. The benchmark and the leaderboard have been publicly made available at https://struct-bench.github.io.

Data collection is often difficult in critical fields such as medicine, physics, and chemistry. As a result, classification methods usually perform poorly with these small datasets, leading to weak predictive performance. Increasing the training set with additional synthetic data, similar to data augmentation in images, is commonly believed to improve downstream classification performance. However, current tabular generative methods that learn either the joint distribution p(x, y) or the class-conditional distribution p(x mid y) often overfit on small datasets, resulting in poor-quality synthetic data, usually worsening classification performance compared to using real data alone. To solve these challenges, we introduce TabEBM, a novel class-conditional generative method using Energy-Based Models (EBMs). Unlike existing methods that use a shared model to approximate all class-conditional densities, our key innovation is to create distinct EBM generative models for each class, each modelling its class-specific data distribution individually. This approach creates robust energy landscapes, even in ambiguous class distributions. Our experiments show that TabEBM generates synthetic data with higher quality and better statistical fidelity than existing methods. When used for data augmentation, our synthetic data consistently improves the classification performance across diverse datasets of various sizes, especially small ones. Code is available at https://github.com/andreimargeloiu/TabEBM.

Over the past few years there has been major progress in the field of synthetic data generation using simulation based techniques. These methods use high-end graphics engines and physics-based ray-tracing rendering in order to represent the world in 3D and create highly realistic images. Datagen has specialized in the generation of high-quality 3D humans, realistic 3D environments and generation of realistic human motion. This technology has been developed into a data generation platform which we used for these experiments. This work demonstrates the use of synthetic photo-realistic in-cabin data to train a Driver Monitoring System that uses a lightweight neural network to detect whether the driver's hands are on the wheel. We demonstrate that when only a small amount of real data is available, synthetic data can be a simple way to boost performance. Moreover, we adopt the data-centric approach and show how performing error analysis and generating the missing edge-cases in our platform boosts performance. This showcases the ability of human-centric synthetic data to generalize well to the real world, and help train algorithms in computer vision settings where data from the target domain is scarce or hard to collect.

Synthetic data generation is an important application of machine learning in the field of medical imaging. While existing approaches have successfully applied fine-tuned diffusion models for synthesizing medical images, we explore potential improvements to this pipeline through feature-aligned diffusion. Our approach aligns intermediate features of the diffusion model to the output features of an expert, and our preliminary findings show an improvement of 9% in generation accuracy and ~0.12 in SSIM diversity. Our approach is also synergistic with existing methods, and easily integrated into diffusion training pipelines for improvements. We make our code available at https://github.com/lnairGT/Feature-Aligned-Diffusion.

As LLM agents advance, they are increasingly mediating economic decisions, ranging from product discovery to transactions, on behalf of users. Such applications promise benefits but also raise many questions about agent accountability and value for users. Addressing these questions requires understanding how agents behave in realistic market conditions. However, previous research has largely evaluated agents in constrained settings, such as single-task marketplaces (e.g., negotiation) or structured two-agent interactions. Real-world markets are fundamentally different: they require agents to handle diverse economic activities and coordinate within large, dynamic ecosystems where multiple agents with opaque behaviors may engage in open-ended dialogues. To bridge this gap, we investigate two-sided agentic marketplaces where Assistant agents represent consumers and Service agents represent competing businesses. To study these interactions safely, we develop Magentic-Marketplace-- a simulated environment where Assistants and Services can operate. This environment enables us to study key market dynamics: the utility agents achieve, behavioral biases, vulnerability to manipulation, and how search mechanisms shape market outcomes. Our experiments show that frontier models can approach optimal welfare-- but only under ideal search conditions. Performance degrades sharply with scale, and all models exhibit severe first-proposal bias, creating 10-30x advantages for response speed over quality. These findings reveal how behaviors emerge across market conditions, informing the design of fair and efficient agentic marketplaces.

The capability gap between open-source and closed-source large language models (LLMs) remains a challenge in text-to-SQL tasks. In this paper, we introduce a synthetic data approach that combines data produced by larger, more powerful models (strong models) with error information data generated by smaller, not well-aligned models (weak models). The method not only enhances the domain generalization of text-to-SQL models but also explores the potential of error data supervision through preference learning. Furthermore, we employ the synthetic data approach for instruction tuning on open-source LLMs, resulting SENSE, a specialized text-to-SQL model. The effectiveness of SENSE is demonstrated through state-of-the-art results on the SPIDER and BIRD benchmarks, bridging the performance gap between open-source models and methods prompted by closed-source models.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) are transforming the domain of Quantitative Trading (QT) through the deployment of advanced algorithms capable of sifting through extensive financial datasets to pinpoint lucrative investment openings. AI-driven models, particularly those employing ML techniques such as deep learning and reinforcement learning, have shown great prowess in predicting market trends and executing trades at a speed and accuracy that far surpass human capabilities. Its capacity to automate critical tasks, such as discerning market conditions and executing trading strategies, has been pivotal. However, persistent challenges exist in current QT methods, especially in effectively handling noisy and high-frequency financial data. Striking a balance between exploration and exploitation poses another challenge for AI-driven trading agents. To surmount these hurdles, our proposed solution, QTNet, introduces an adaptive trading model that autonomously formulates QT strategies through an intelligent trading agent. Incorporating deep reinforcement learning (DRL) with imitative learning methodologies, we bolster the proficiency of our model. To tackle the challenges posed by volatile financial datasets, we conceptualize the QT mechanism within the framework of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP). Moreover, by embedding imitative learning, the model can capitalize on traditional trading tactics, nurturing a balanced synergy between discovery and utilization. For a more realistic simulation, our trading agent undergoes training using minute-frequency data sourced from the live financial market. Experimental findings underscore the model's proficiency in extracting robust market features and its adaptability to diverse market conditions.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

We present a framework for hedging a portfolio of derivatives in the presence of market frictions such as transaction costs, market impact, liquidity constraints or risk limits using modern deep reinforcement machine learning methods. We discuss how standard reinforcement learning methods can be applied to non-linear reward structures, i.e. in our case convex risk measures. As a general contribution to the use of deep learning for stochastic processes, we also show that the set of constrained trading strategies used by our algorithm is large enough to ε-approximate any optimal solution. Our algorithm can be implemented efficiently even in high-dimensional situations using modern machine learning tools. Its structure does not depend on specific market dynamics, and generalizes across hedging instruments including the use of liquid derivatives. Its computational performance is largely invariant in the size of the portfolio as it depends mainly on the number of hedging instruments available. We illustrate our approach by showing the effect on hedging under transaction costs in a synthetic market driven by the Heston model, where we outperform the standard "complete market" solution.

Cluster analysis relies on effective benchmarks for evaluating and comparing different algorithms. Simulation studies on synthetic data are popular because important features of the data sets, such as the overlap between clusters, or the variation in cluster shapes, can be effectively varied. Unfortunately, creating evaluation scenarios is often laborious, as practitioners must translate higher-level scenario descriptions like "clusters with very different shapes" into lower-level geometric parameters such as cluster centers, covariance matrices, etc. To make benchmarks more convenient and informative, we propose synthetic data generation based on direct specification of high-level scenarios, either through verbal descriptions or high-level geometric parameters. Our open-source Python package repliclust implements this workflow, making it easy to set up interpretable and reproducible benchmarks for cluster analysis. A demo of data generation from verbal inputs is available at https://demo.repliclust.org.

Recent advances in computer vision have shown promising results in image generation. Diffusion probabilistic models in particular have generated realistic images from textual input, as demonstrated by DALL-E 2, Imagen and Stable Diffusion. However, their use in medicine, where image data typically comprises three-dimensional volumes, has not been systematically evaluated. Synthetic images may play a crucial role in privacy preserving artificial intelligence and can also be used to augment small datasets. Here we show that diffusion probabilistic models can synthesize high quality medical imaging data, which we show for Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) and Computed Tomography (CT) images. We provide quantitative measurements of their performance through a reader study with two medical experts who rated the quality of the synthesized images in three categories: Realistic image appearance, anatomical correctness and consistency between slices. Furthermore, we demonstrate that synthetic images can be used in a self-supervised pre-training and improve the performance of breast segmentation models when data is scarce (dice score 0.91 vs. 0.95 without vs. with synthetic data). The code is publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/FirasGit/medicaldiffusion.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

Recent advances in large language model (LLM) pretraining have shown that simply scaling data quantity eventually leads to diminishing returns, hitting a data wall. In response, the use of synthetic data for pretraining has emerged as a promising paradigm for pushing the frontier of performance. Despite this, the factors affecting synthetic data quality remain poorly understood. In this work, we introduce BeyondWeb, a synthetic data generation framework that produces high-quality synthetic data for pretraining. BeyondWeb significantly extends the capabilities of traditional web-scale datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art synthetic pretraining datasets such as Cosmopedia and Nemotron-CC's high-quality synthetic subset (Nemotron-Synth) by up to 5.1 percentage points (pp) and 2.6pp, respectively, when averaged across a suite of 14 benchmark evaluations. It delivers up to 7.7x faster training than open web data and 2.7x faster than Nemotron-Synth. Remarkably, a 3B model trained for 180B tokens on BeyondWeb outperforms an 8B model trained for the same token budget on Cosmopedia. We also present several insights from BeyondWeb on synthetic data for pretraining: what drives its benefits, which data to rephrase and how, and the impact of model size and family on data quality. Overall, our work shows that there's no silver bullet for generating high-quality synthetic pretraining data. The best outcomes require jointly optimizing many factors, a challenging task that requires rigorous science and practical expertise. Naive approaches can yield modest improvements, potentially at great cost, while well-executed methods can yield transformative improvements, as exemplified by BeyondWeb.

Machine learning classification problems are widespread in bioinformatics, but the technical knowledge required to perform model training, optimization, and inference can prevent researchers from utilizing this technology. This article presents an automated tool for machine learning classification problems to simplify the process of training models and producing results while providing informative visualizations and insights into the data. This tool supports both binary and multiclass classification problems, and it provides access to a variety of models and methods. Synthetic data can be generated within the interface to fill missing values, balance class labels, or generate entirely new datasets. It also provides support for feature evaluation and generates explainability scores to indicate which features influence the output the most. We present CLASSify, an open-source tool for simplifying the user experience of solving classification problems without the need for knowledge of machine learning.

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) is inherently linked to the availability of vast, diverse, and high-quality data for training and evaluation. However, the growth rate of high-quality data is significantly outpaced by the expansion of training datasets, leading to a looming data exhaustion crisis. This underscores the urgent need to enhance data efficiency and explore new data sources. In this context, synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution. Currently, data generation primarily consists of two major approaches: data augmentation and synthesis. This paper comprehensively reviews and summarizes data generation techniques throughout the lifecycle of LLMs, including data preparation, pre-training, fine-tuning, instruction-tuning, preference alignment, and applications. Furthermore, We discuss the current constraints faced by these methods and investigate potential pathways for future development and research. Our aspiration is to equip researchers with a clear understanding of these methodologies, enabling them to swiftly identify appropriate data generation strategies in the construction of LLMs, while providing valuable insights for future exploration.

The digitization of medical records ushered in a new era of big data to clinical science, and with it the possibility that data could be shared, to multiply insights beyond what investigators could abstract from paper records. The need to share individual-level medical data to accelerate innovation in precision medicine continues to grow, and has never been more urgent, as scientists grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic. However, enthusiasm for the use of big data has been tempered by a fully appropriate concern for patient autonomy and privacy. That is, the ability to extract private or confidential information about an individual, in practice, renders it difficult to share data, since significant infrastructure and data governance must be established before data can be shared. Although HIPAA provided de-identification as an approved mechanism for data sharing, linkage attacks were identified as a major vulnerability. A variety of mechanisms have been established to avoid leaking private information, such as field suppression or abstraction, strictly limiting the amount of information that can be shared, or employing mathematical techniques such as differential privacy. Another approach, which we focus on here, is creating synthetic data that mimics the underlying data. For synthetic data to be a useful mechanism in support of medical innovation and a proxy for real-world evidence, one must demonstrate two properties of the synthetic dataset: (1) any analysis on the real data must be matched by analysis of the synthetic data (statistical fidelity) and (2) the synthetic data must preserve privacy, with minimal risk of re-identification (privacy guarantee). In this paper we propose a framework for quantifying the statistical fidelity and privacy preservation properties of synthetic datasets and demonstrate these metrics for synthetic data generated by Syntegra technology.

Synthetic simulation data and real-world human data provide scalable alternatives to circumvent the prohibitive costs of robot data collection. However, these sources suffer from the sim-to-real visual gap and the human-to-robot embodiment gap, respectively, which limits the policy's generalization to real-world scenarios. In this work, we identify a natural yet underexplored complementarity between these sources: simulation offers the robot action that human data lacks, while human data provides the real-world observation that simulation struggles to render. Motivated by this insight, we present SimHum, a co-training framework to simultaneously extract kinematic prior from simulated robot actions and visual prior from real-world human observations. Based on the two complementary priors, we achieve data-efficient and generalizable robotic manipulation in real-world tasks. Empirically, SimHum outperforms the baseline by up to 40% under the same data collection budget, and achieves a 62.5% OOD success with only 80 real data, outperforming the real only baseline by 7.1times. Videos and additional information can be found at https://kaipengfang.github.io/sim-and-human{project website}.

Faced with an expensive human annotation process, creators of NLP systems increasingly turn to synthetic data generation. While this method shows promise, the extent to which synthetic data can replace human annotation is poorly understood. We investigate the use of synthetic data in Fact Verification (FV) and Question Answering (QA) by studying the effects of incrementally replacing human generated data with synthetic points on eight diverse datasets. Strikingly, replacing up to 90% of the training data only marginally decreases performance, but replacing the final 10% leads to severe declines. We find that models trained on purely synthetic data can be reliably improved by including as few as 125 human generated data points. We show that matching the performance gain of just a little additional human data (only 200 points) requires an order of magnitude more synthetic data and estimate price ratios at which human annotation would be a more cost-effective solution. Our results suggest that even when human annotation at scale is infeasible, there is great value to having a small proportion of the dataset being human generated.

Small LLMs often struggle to match the agentic capabilities of large, costly models. While reinforcement learning can help, progress has been limited by two structural bottlenecks: existing open-source agentic training data are narrow in task variety and easily solved; real-world APIs lack diversity and are unstable for large-scale reinforcement learning rollout processes. We address these challenges with SYNTHAGENT, a framework that jointly synthesizes diverse tool-use training data and simulates complete environments. Specifically, a strong teacher model creates novel tasks and tool ecosystems, then rewrites them into intentionally underspecified instructions. This compels agents to actively query users for missing details. When handling synthetic tasks, an LLM-based user simulator provides user-private information, while a mock tool system delivers stable tool responses. For rewards, task-level rubrics are constructed based on required subgoals, user-agent interactions, and forbidden behaviors. Across 14 challenging datasets in math, search, and tool use, models trained on our synthetic data achieve substantial gains, with small models outperforming larger baselines.

We introduce a novel hybrid approach that augments Agent-Based Models (ABMs) with behaviors generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) to simulate human trading interactions. We call our model TraderTalk. Leveraging LLMs trained on extensive human-authored text, we capture detailed and nuanced representations of bilateral conversations in financial trading. Applying this Generative Agent-Based Model (GABM) to government bond markets, we replicate trading decisions between two stylised virtual humans. Our method addresses both structural challenges, such as coordinating turn-taking between realistic LLM-based agents, and design challenges, including the interpretation of LLM outputs by the agent model. By exploring prompt design opportunistically rather than systematically, we enhance the realism of agent interactions without exhaustive overfitting or model reliance. Our approach successfully replicates trade-to-order volume ratios observed in related asset markets, demonstrating the potential of LLM-augmented ABMs in financial simulations

Predicting stock market prices following corporate earnings calls remains a significant challenge for investors and researchers alike, requiring innovative approaches that can process diverse information sources. This study investigates the impact of corporate earnings calls on stock prices by introducing a multi-modal predictive model. We leverage textual data from earnings call transcripts, along with images and tables from accompanying presentations, to forecast stock price movements on the trading day immediately following these calls. To facilitate this research, we developed the MiMIC (Multi-Modal Indian Earnings Calls) dataset, encompassing companies representing the Nifty 50, Nifty MidCap 50, and Nifty Small 50 indices. The dataset includes earnings call transcripts, presentations, fundamentals, technical indicators, and subsequent stock prices. We present a multimodal analytical framework that integrates quantitative variables with predictive signals derived from textual and visual modalities, thereby enabling a holistic approach to feature representation and analysis. This multi-modal approach demonstrates the potential for integrating diverse information sources to enhance financial forecasting accuracy. To promote further research in computational economics, we have made the MiMIC dataset publicly available under the CC-NC-SA-4.0 licence. Our work contributes to the growing body of literature on market reactions to corporate communications and highlights the efficacy of multi-modal machine learning techniques in financial analysis.

Chest X-rays (CXR) are the most common medical imaging study and are used to diagnose multiple medical conditions. This study examines the impact of synthetic data supplementation, using diffusion models, on the performance of deep learning (DL) classifiers for CXR analysis. We employed three datasets: CheXpert, MIMIC-CXR, and Emory Chest X-ray, training conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to generate synthetic frontal radiographs. Our approach ensured that synthetic images mirrored the demographic and pathological traits of the original data. Evaluating the classifiers' performance on internal and external datasets revealed that synthetic data supplementation enhances model accuracy, particularly in detecting less prevalent pathologies. Furthermore, models trained on synthetic data alone approached the performance of those trained on real data. This suggests that synthetic data can potentially compensate for real data shortages in training robust DL models. However, despite promising outcomes, the superiority of real data persists.

Recent advances in synthetic data generation (SDG) have been hailed as a solution to the difficult problem of sharing sensitive data while protecting privacy. SDG aims to learn statistical properties of real data in order to generate "artificial" data that are structurally and statistically similar to sensitive data. However, prior research suggests that inference attacks on synthetic data can undermine privacy, but only for specific outlier records. In this work, we introduce a new attribute inference attack against synthetic data. The attack is based on linear reconstruction methods for aggregate statistics, which target all records in the dataset, not only outliers. We evaluate our attack on state-of-the-art SDG algorithms, including Probabilistic Graphical Models, Generative Adversarial Networks, and recent differentially private SDG mechanisms. By defining a formal privacy game, we show that our attack can be highly accurate even on arbitrary records, and that this is the result of individual information leakage (as opposed to population-level inference). We then systematically evaluate the tradeoff between protecting privacy and preserving statistical utility. Our findings suggest that current SDG methods cannot consistently provide sufficient privacy protection against inference attacks while retaining reasonable utility. The best method evaluated, a differentially private SDG mechanism, can provide both protection against inference attacks and reasonable utility, but only in very specific settings. Lastly, we show that releasing a larger number of synthetic records can improve utility but at the cost of making attacks far more effective.

The rapid progress in generative models has resulted in impressive leaps in generation quality, blurring the lines between synthetic and real data. Web-scale datasets are now prone to the inevitable contamination by synthetic data, directly impacting the training of future generated models. Already, some theoretical results on self-consuming generative models (a.k.a., iterative retraining) have emerged in the literature, showcasing that either model collapse or stability could be possible depending on the fraction of generated data used at each retraining step. However, in practice, synthetic data is often subject to human feedback and curated by users before being used and uploaded online. For instance, many interfaces of popular text-to-image generative models, such as Stable Diffusion or Midjourney, produce several variations of an image for a given query which can eventually be curated by the users. In this paper, we theoretically study the impact of data curation on iterated retraining of generative models and show that it can be seen as an implicit preference optimization mechanism. However, unlike standard preference optimization, the generative model does not have access to the reward function or negative samples needed for pairwise comparisons. Moreover, our study doesn't require access to the density function, only to samples. We prove that, if the data is curated according to a reward model, then the expected reward of the iterative retraining procedure is maximized. We further provide theoretical results on the stability of the retraining loop when using a positive fraction of real data at each step. Finally, we conduct illustrative experiments on both synthetic datasets and on CIFAR10 showing that such a procedure amplifies biases of the reward model.

Deep generative models have made tremendous progress in modeling complex data, often exhibiting generation quality that surpasses a typical human's ability to discern the authenticity of samples. Undeniably, a key driver of this success is enabled by the massive amounts of web-scale data consumed by these models. Due to these models' striking performance and ease of availability, the web will inevitably be increasingly populated with synthetic content. Such a fact directly implies that future iterations of generative models must contend with the reality that their training is curated from both clean data and artificially generated data from past models. In this paper, we develop a framework to rigorously study the impact of training generative models on mixed datasets (of real and synthetic data) on their stability. We first prove the stability of iterative training under the condition that the initial generative models approximate the data distribution well enough and the proportion of clean training data (w.r.t. synthetic data) is large enough. We empirically validate our theory on both synthetic and natural images by iteratively training normalizing flows and state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR10 and FFHQ.

Within the evolving landscape of deep learning, the dilemma of data quantity and quality has been a long-standing problem. The recent advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers a data-centric solution to alleviate the limitations of real-world data with synthetic data generation. However, current investigations into this field lack a unified framework and mostly stay on the surface. Therefore, this paper provides an organization of relevant studies based on a generic workflow of synthetic data generation. By doing so, we highlight the gaps within existing research and outline prospective avenues for future study. This work aims to shepherd the academic and industrial communities towards deeper, more methodical inquiries into the capabilities and applications of LLMs-driven synthetic data generation.

Synthetic data generation has become an increasingly popular way of training models without the need for large, manually labeled datasets. For tasks like text embedding, synthetic data offers diverse and scalable training examples, significantly reducing the cost of human annotation. However, most current approaches rely heavily on proprietary models like GPT-4, which are expensive and inefficient for generating large-scale embedding data. In this paper, we introduce SPEED, a framework that aligns open-source small models (8B) to efficiently generate large-scale synthetic embedding data. Through supervised fine-tuning, preference optimization, and self-improvement, SPEED enables small open-source models to produce high-quality data. Remarkably, SPEED uses only less than 1/10 of the GPT API calls, outperforming the state-of-the-art embedding model E5_mistral when both are trained solely on their synthetic data. Using this efficient generator, we conduct a comprehensive study on how various factors within the alignment pipeline impact data quality and reveal the scaling law for synthetic embedding data.

While data sharing is crucial for knowledge development, privacy concerns and strict regulation (e.g., European General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR)) limit its full effectiveness. Synthetic tabular data emerges as alternative to enable data sharing while fulfilling regulatory and privacy constraints. State-of-the-art tabular data synthesizers draw methodologies from Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN). As GANs improve the synthesized data increasingly resemble the real data risking to leak privacy. Differential privacy (DP) provides theoretical guarantees on privacy loss but degrades data utility. Striking the best trade-off remains yet a challenging research question. We propose CTAB-GAN+ a novel conditional tabular GAN. CTAB-GAN+ improves upon state-of-the-art by (i) adding downstream losses to conditional GANs for higher utility synthetic data in both classification and regression domains; (ii) using Wasserstein loss with gradient penalty for better training convergence; (iii) introducing novel encoders targeting mixed continuous-categorical variables and variables with unbalanced or skewed data; and (iv) training with DP stochastic gradient descent to impose strict privacy guarantees. We extensively evaluate CTAB-GAN+ on data similarity and analysis utility against state-of-the-art tabular GANs. The results show that CTAB-GAN+ synthesizes privacy-preserving data with at least 48.16% higher utility across multiple datasets and learning tasks under different privacy budgets.

Generative text-to-image models enable us to synthesize unlimited amounts of images in a controllable manner, spurring many recent efforts to train vision models with synthetic data. However, every synthetic image ultimately originates from the upstream data used to train the generator. What additional value does the intermediate generator provide over directly training on relevant parts of the upstream data? Grounding this question in the setting of image classification,a we compare finetuning on task-relevant, targeted synthetic data generated by Stable Diffusion -- a generative model trained on the LAION-2B dataset -- against finetuning on targeted real images retrieved directly from LAION-2B. We show that while synthetic data can benefit some downstream tasks, it is universally matched or outperformed by real data from our simple retrieval baseline. Our analysis suggests that this underperformance is partially due to generator artifacts and inaccurate task-relevant visual details in the synthetic images. Overall, we argue that retrieval is a critical baseline to consider when training with synthetic data -- a baseline that current methods do not yet surpass. We release code, data, and models at https://github.com/scottgeng00/unmet-promise.

Although synthetic data is widely promoted as a remedy, its prevailing production paradigm -- one optimizing for statistical smoothness -- systematically removes the long-tail, cognitively grounded irregularities that characterize human text. Prolonged training on such statistically optimal but cognitively impoverished data accelerates model collapse. This paper proposes a paradigm shift: instead of imitating the surface properties of data, we simulate the cognitive processes that generate human text. We introduce the Prompt-driven Cognitive Computing Framework (PMCSF), whose core consists of a Cognitive State Decoder (CSD) that reverse-engineers unstructured text into structured cognitive vectors, and a Cognitive Text Encoder (CTE) that re-materializes these states into text enriched with human-typical imperfections via mathematically defined Cognitive Perturbation Operators. The framework is validated through a two-stage objective evaluation pipeline. First, in cognitive codec verification, CTE text yields a Jensen-Shannon divergence of 0.0614 from human text (vs. 0.4431 for standard LLM output), passes double-blind professional media review, and achieves an intraclass correlation coefficient ICC > 0.9 for cognitive profile alignment across heterogeneous models. Second, in functional gain evaluation, isomorphic stress tests in the A-share market show that strategies incorporating CTE-generated data reduce maximum drawdown by 47.4% during the 2015 crash and deliver 8.6% Defensive Alpha, exceeding transaction costs by a factor of 33. Our findings demonstrate that modelling human cognitive limitations -- not copying surface data -- enables synthetic data with genuine functional gain, offering a viable technical pathway toward resolving the AI data-collapse crisis.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential as autonomous agents, approaching human-expert performance through advanced reasoning and tool orchestration. However, decision-making in fully dynamic and live environments remains highly challenging, requiring real-time information integration and adaptive responses. While existing efforts have explored live evaluation mechanisms in structured tasks, a critical gap remains in systematic benchmarking for real-world applications, particularly in finance where stringent requirements exist for live strategic responsiveness. To address this gap, we introduce AI-Trader, the first fully-automated, live, and data-uncontaminated evaluation benchmark for LLM agents in financial decision-making. AI-Trader spans three major financial markets: U.S. stocks, A-shares, and cryptocurrencies, with multiple trading granularities to simulate live financial environments. Our benchmark implements a revolutionary fully autonomous minimal information paradigm where agents receive only essential context and must independently search, verify, and synthesize live market information without human intervention. We evaluate six mainstream LLMs across three markets and multiple trading frequencies. Our analysis reveals striking findings: general intelligence does not automatically translate to effective trading capability, with most agents exhibiting poor returns and weak risk management. We demonstrate that risk control capability determines cross-market robustness, and that AI trading strategies achieve excess returns more readily in highly liquid markets than policy-driven environments. These findings expose critical limitations in current autonomous agents and provide clear directions for future improvements. The code and evaluation data are open-sourced to foster community research: https://github.com/HKUDS/AI-Trader.

For a fixed parameter size, the capabilities of large models are primarily determined by the quality and quantity of its training data. Consequently, training datasets now grow faster than the rate at which new data is indexed on the web, leading to projected data exhaustion over the next decade. Much more data exists as user-generated content that is not publicly indexed, but incorporating such data comes with considerable risks, such as leaking private information and other undesirable content. We introduce a framework, Generative Data Refinement (GDR), for using pretrained generative models to transform a dataset with undesirable content into a refined dataset that is more suitable for training. Our experiments show that GDR can outperform industry-grade solutions for dataset anonymization, as well as enable direct detoxification of highly unsafe datasets. Moreover, we show that by generating synthetic data that is conditioned on each example in the real dataset, GDR's refined outputs naturally match the diversity of web scale datasets, and thereby avoid the often challenging task of generating diverse synthetic data via model prompting. The simplicity and effectiveness of GDR make it a powerful tool for scaling up the total stock of training data for frontier models.

Prediction markets are designed to aggregate dispersed information about future events, yet today's ecosystem is fragmented across heterogeneous operator-run platforms and blockchain-based protocols that independently list economically identical events. In the absence of a shared notion of event identity, liquidity fails to pool across venues, arbitrage becomes capital-intensive or unenforceable, and prices systematically violate the Law of One Price. As a result, market prices reflect platform-local beliefs rather than a single, globally aggregated probability, undermining the core information-aggregation function of prediction markets. We address this gap by introducing a semantic alignment framework that makes cross-platform event identity explicit through joint analysis of natural-language descriptions, resolution semantics, and temporal scope. Applying this framework, we construct the first human-validated, cross-platform dataset of aligned prediction markets, covering over 100 000 events across ten major venues from 2018 to 2025. Using this dataset, we show that roughly 6% of all events are concurrently listed across platforms and that semantically equivalent markets exhibit persistent execution-aware price deviations of 2-4% on average, even in highly liquid and information-rich settings. These mispricings give rise to persistent cross-platform arbitrage opportunities driven by structural frictions rather than informational disagreement. Overall, our results demonstrate that semantic non-fungibility is a fundamental barrier to price convergence, and that resolving event identity is a prerequisite for prediction markets to aggregate information at a global scale.

Model collapse in synthetic data indicates that iterative training on self-generated data leads to a gradual decline in performance. With the proliferation of AI models, synthetic data will fundamentally reshape the web data ecosystem. Future GPT-{n} models will inevitably be trained on a blend of synthetic and human-produced data. In this paper, we focus on two questions: what is the impact of synthetic data on language model training, and how to synthesize data without model collapse? We first pre-train language models across different proportions of synthetic data, revealing a negative correlation between the proportion of synthetic data and model performance. We further conduct statistical analysis on synthetic data to uncover distributional shift phenomenon and over-concentration of n-gram features. Inspired by the above findings, we propose token editing on human-produced data to obtain semi-synthetic data. As a proof of concept, we theoretically demonstrate that token-level editing can prevent model collapse, as the test error is constrained by a finite upper bound. We conduct extensive experiments on pre-training from scratch, continual pre-training, and supervised fine-tuning. The results validate our theoretical proof that token-level editing improves data quality and enhances model performance.

Synthetic data generation for tabular datasets must balance fidelity, efficiency, and versatility to meet the demands of real-world applications. We introduce the Tabular Auto-Regressive Generative Network (TabularARGN), a flexible framework designed to handle mixed-type, multivariate, and sequential datasets. By training on all possible conditional probabilities, TabularARGN supports advanced features such as fairness-aware generation, imputation, and conditional generation on any subset of columns. The framework achieves state-of-the-art synthetic data quality while significantly reducing training and inference times, making it ideal for large-scale datasets with diverse structures. Evaluated across established benchmarks, including realistic datasets with complex relationships, TabularARGN demonstrates its capability to synthesize high-quality data efficiently. By unifying flexibility and performance, this framework paves the way for practical synthetic data generation across industries.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) advancement is heavily dependent on access to large-scale, high-quality training data. However, in specialized domains such as healthcare, data acquisition faces significant constraints due to privacy regulations, ethical considerations, and limited availability. While synthetic data generation offers a promising solution, conventional approaches typically require substantial real data for training generative models. The emergence of large-scale prompt-based models presents new opportunities for synthetic data generation without direct access to protected data. However, crafting effective prompts for domain-specific data generation remains challenging, and manual prompt engineering proves insufficient for achieving output with sufficient precision and authenticity. We review recent developments in automatic prompt optimization, following PRISMA guidelines. We analyze six peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2024 that focus on automatic data-free prompt optimization methods. Our analysis reveals three approaches: feedback-driven, error-based, and control-theoretic. Although all approaches demonstrate promising capabilities in prompt refinement and adaptation, our findings suggest the need for an integrated framework that combines complementary optimization techniques to enhance synthetic data generation while minimizing manual intervention. We propose future research directions toward developing robust, iterative prompt optimization frameworks capable of improving the quality of synthetic data. This advancement can be particularly crucial for sensitive fields and in specialized domains where data access is restricted, potentially transforming how we approach synthetic data generation for AI development.

Inspired by the principle of deliberate practice in human learning, we propose Deliberate Practice for Synthetic Data Generation (DP), a novel framework that improves sample efficiency through dynamic synthetic data generation. Prior work has shown that scaling synthetic data is inherently challenging, as naively adding new data leads to diminishing returns. To address this, pruning has been identified as a key mechanism for improving scaling, enabling models to focus on the most informative synthetic samples. Rather than generating a large dataset and pruning it afterward, DP efficiently approximates the direct generation of informative samples. We theoretically show how training on challenging, informative examples improves scaling laws and empirically validate that DP achieves better scaling performance with significantly fewer training samples and iterations. On ImageNet-100, DP generates 3.4x fewer samples and requires six times fewer iterations, while on ImageNet-1k, it generates 8x fewer samples with a 30 percent reduction in iterations, all while achieving superior performance compared to prior work.

This explainer document aims to provide an overview of the current state of the rapidly expanding work on synthetic data technologies, with a particular focus on privacy. The article is intended for a non-technical audience, though some formal definitions have been given to provide clarity to specialists. This article is intended to enable the reader to quickly become familiar with the notion of synthetic data, as well as understand some of the subtle intricacies that come with it. We do believe that synthetic data is a very useful tool, and our hope is that this report highlights that, while drawing attention to nuances that can easily be overlooked in its deployment.

Stock selection, which aims to predict stock prices and identify the most profitable ones, is a crucial task in finance. While existing methods primarily focus on developing model structures and building graphs for improved selection, pre-training strategies remain underexplored in this domain. Current stock series pre-training follows methods from other areas without adapting to the unique characteristics of financial data, particularly overlooking stock-specific contextual information and the non-stationary nature of stock prices. Consequently, the latent statistical features inherent in stock data are underutilized. In this paper, we propose three novel pre-training tasks tailored to stock data characteristics: stock code classification, stock sector classification, and moving average prediction. We develop the Stock Specialized Pre-trained Transformer (SSPT) based on a two-layer transformer architecture. Extensive experimental results validate the effectiveness of our pre-training methods and provide detailed guidance on their application. Evaluations on five stock datasets, including four markets and two time periods, demonstrate that SSPT consistently outperforms the market and existing methods in terms of both cumulative investment return ratio and Sharpe ratio. Additionally, our experiments on simulated data investigate the underlying mechanisms of our methods, providing insights into understanding price series. Our code is publicly available at: https://github.com/astudentuser/Pre-training-Time-Series-Models-with-Stock-Data-Customization.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty.

The development of robust AI models relies heavily on the quality and variety of training data available. In fields where data scarcity is prevalent, synthetic data generation offers a vital solution. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to creating synthetic datasets, grounded in real-world diversity and enriched through strategic diversification. We synthesize data using a comprehensive collection of news articles spanning 12 languages and originating from 125 countries, to ensure a breadth of linguistic and cultural representations. Through enforced topic diversification, translation, and summarization, the resulting dataset accurately mirrors real-world complexities and addresses the issue of underrepresentation in traditional datasets. This methodology, applied initially to Named Entity Recognition (NER), serves as a model for numerous AI disciplines where data diversification is critical for generalizability. Preliminary results demonstrate substantial improvements in performance on traditional NER benchmarks, by up to 7.3%, highlighting the effectiveness of our synthetic data in mimicking the rich, varied nuances of global data sources. This paper outlines the strategies employed for synthesizing diverse datasets and provides such a curated dataset for NER.

The development of embodied agents for complex commercial environments is hindered by a critical gap in existing robotics datasets and benchmarks, which primarily focus on household or tabletop settings with short-horizon tasks. To address this limitation, we introduce MarketGen, a scalable simulation platform with automatic scene generation for complex supermarket environments. MarketGen features a novel agent-based Procedural Content Generation (PCG) framework. It uniquely supports multi-modal inputs (text and reference images) and integrates real-world design principles to automatically generate complete, structured, and realistic supermarkets. We also provide an extensive and diverse 3D asset library with a total of 1100+ supermarket goods and parameterized facilities assets. Building on this generative foundation, we propose a novel benchmark for assessing supermarket agents, featuring two daily tasks in a supermarket: (1) Checkout Unloading: long-horizon tabletop tasks for cashier agents, and (2) In-Aisle Item Collection: complex mobile manipulation tasks for salesperson agents. We validate our platform and benchmark through extensive experiments, including the deployment of a modular agent system and successful sim-to-real transfer. MarketGen provides a comprehensive framework to accelerate research in embodied AI for complex commercial applications.

Synthetic data generation with Large Language Models is a promising paradigm for augmenting natural data over a nearly infinite range of tasks. Given this variety, direct comparisons among synthetic data generation algorithms are scarce, making it difficult to understand where improvement comes from and what bottlenecks exist. We propose to evaluate algorithms via the makeup of synthetic data generated by each algorithm in terms of data quality, diversity, and complexity. We choose these three characteristics for their significance in open-ended processes and the impact each has on the capabilities of downstream models. We find quality to be essential for in-distribution model generalization, diversity to be essential for out-of-distribution generalization, and complexity to be beneficial for both. Further, we emphasize the existence of Quality-Diversity trade-offs in training data and the downstream effects on model performance. We then examine the effect of various components in the synthetic data pipeline on each data characteristic. This examination allows us to taxonomize and compare synthetic data generation algorithms through the components they utilize and the resulting effects on data QDC composition. This analysis extends into a discussion on the importance of balancing QDC in synthetic data for efficient reinforcement learning and self-improvement algorithms. Analogous to the QD trade-offs in training data, often there exist trade-offs between model output quality and output diversity which impact the composition of synthetic data. We observe that many models are currently evaluated and optimized only for output quality, thereby limiting output diversity and the potential for self-improvement. We argue that balancing these trade-offs is essential to the development of future self-improvement algorithms and highlight a number of works making progress in this direction.

Generative modeling of high-frequency limit order book (LOB) dynamics is a critical yet unsolved challenge in quantitative finance, essential for robust market simulation and strategy backtesting. Existing approaches are often constrained by simplifying stochastic assumptions or, in the case of modern deep learning models like Transformers, rely on tokenization schemes that affect the high-precision, numerical nature of financial data through discretization and binning. To address these limitations, we introduce ByteGen, a novel generative model that operates directly on the raw byte streams of LOB events. Our approach treats the problem as an autoregressive next-byte prediction task, for which we design a compact and efficient 32-byte packed binary format to represent market messages without information loss. The core novelty of our work is the complete elimination of feature engineering and tokenization, enabling the model to learn market dynamics from its most fundamental representation. We achieve this by adapting the H-Net architecture, a hybrid Mamba-Transformer model that uses a dynamic chunking mechanism to discover the inherent structure of market messages without predefined rules. Our primary contributions are: 1) the first end-to-end, byte-level framework for LOB modeling; 2) an efficient packed data representation; and 3) a comprehensive evaluation on high-frequency data. Trained on over 34 million events from CME Bitcoin futures, ByteGen successfully reproduces key stylized facts of financial markets, generating realistic price distributions, heavy-tailed returns, and bursty event timing. Our findings demonstrate that learning directly from byte space is a promising and highly flexible paradigm for modeling complex financial systems, achieving competitive performance on standard market quality metrics without the biases of tokenization.

We introduce the Contrastive Similarity Space Embedding Algorithm (ContraSim), a novel framework for uncovering the global semantic relationships between daily financial headlines and market movements. ContraSim operates in two key stages: (I) Weighted Headline Augmentation, which generates augmented financial headlines along with a semantic fine-grained similarity score, and (II) Weighted Self-Supervised Contrastive Learning (WSSCL), an extended version of classical self-supervised contrastive learning that uses the similarity metric to create a refined weighted embedding space. This embedding space clusters semantically similar headlines together, facilitating deeper market insights. Empirical results demonstrate that integrating ContraSim features into financial forecasting tasks improves classification accuracy from WSJ headlines by 7%. Moreover, leveraging an information density analysis, we find that the similarity spaces constructed by ContraSim intrinsically cluster days with homogeneous market movement directions, indicating that ContraSim captures market dynamics independent of ground truth labels. Additionally, ContraSim enables the identification of historical news days that closely resemble the headlines of the current day, providing analysts with actionable insights to predict market trends by referencing analogous past events.

As synthetic data becomes higher quality and proliferates on the internet, machine learning models are increasingly trained on a mix of human- and machine-generated data. Despite the successful stories of using synthetic data for representation learning, using synthetic data for generative model training creates "self-consuming loops" which may lead to training instability or even collapse, unless certain conditions are met. Our paper aims to stabilize self-consuming generative model training. Our theoretical results demonstrate that by introducing an idealized correction function, which maps a data point to be more likely under the true data distribution, self-consuming loops can be made exponentially more stable. We then propose self-correction functions, which rely on expert knowledge (e.g. the laws of physics programmed in a simulator), and aim to approximate the idealized corrector automatically and at scale. We empirically validate the effectiveness of self-correcting self-consuming loops on the challenging human motion synthesis task, and observe that it successfully avoids model collapse, even when the ratio of synthetic data to real data is as high as 100%.

The global trade in electronic and electrical goods is complicated by the challenge of identifying e-waste, which is often misclassified to evade regulations. Traditional analysis methods struggle to discern the underlying patterns of this illicit trade within vast datasets. This research proposes and validates a robust, data-driven framework to segment products and identify goods exhibiting an anomalous "waste signature" a trade pattern defined by a clear 'inverse price-volume'. The core of the framework is an Outlier-Aware Segmentation method, an iterative K-Means approach that first isolates extreme outliers to prevent data skewing and then re-clusters the remaining products to reveal subtle market segments. To quantify risk, a "Waste Score" is developed using a Logistic Regression model that identifies products whose trade signatures are statistically similar to scrap. The findings reveal a consistent four-tier market hierarchy in both Malaysian and global datasets. A key pattern emerged from a comparative analysis: Malaysia's market structure is defined by high-volume bulk commodities, whereas the global market is shaped by high-value capital goods, indicating a unique national specialization. The framework successfully flags finished goods, such as electric generators (HS 8502), that are traded like scrap, providing a targeted list for regulatory scrutiny.

Training classifiers is difficult with severe class imbalance, but many rare events are the culmination of a sequence with much more common intermediate outcomes. For example, in online marketing a user first sees an ad, then may click on it, and finally may make a purchase; estimating the probability of purchases is difficult because of their rarity. We show both theoretically and through data experiments that the more abundant data in earlier steps may be leveraged to improve estimation of probabilities of rare events. We present PRESTO, a relaxation of the proportional odds model for ordinal regression. Instead of estimating weights for one separating hyperplane that is shifted by separate intercepts for each of the estimated Bayes decision boundaries between adjacent pairs of categorical responses, we estimate separate weights for each of these transitions. We impose an L1 penalty on the differences between weights for the same feature in adjacent weight vectors in order to shrink towards the proportional odds model. We prove that PRESTO consistently estimates the decision boundary weights under a sparsity assumption. Synthetic and real data experiments show that our method can estimate rare probabilities in this setting better than both logistic regression on the rare category, which fails to borrow strength from more abundant categories, and the proportional odds model, which is too inflexible.

Recently, there has been increasing interest in synthesizing data to improve downstream text-to-SQL tasks. In this paper, we first examined the existing synthesized datasets and discovered that state-of-the-art text-to-SQL algorithms did not further improve on popular benchmarks when trained with augmented synthetic data. We observed two shortcomings: illogical synthetic SQL queries from independent column sampling and arbitrary table joins. To address these issues, we propose a novel synthesis framework that incorporates key relationships from schema, imposes strong typing, and conducts schema-distance-weighted column sampling. We also adopt an intermediate representation (IR) for the SQL-to-text task to further improve the quality of the generated natural language questions. When existing powerful semantic parsers are pre-finetuned on our high-quality synthesized data, our experiments show that these models have significant accuracy boosts on popular benchmarks, including new state-of-the-art performance on Spider.

Synthetic data generated by large language models has become integral to modern NLP training pipelines, from bootstrapping reasoning capabilities to augmenting instruction-following datasets. While recent work demonstrates successful applications maintaining high external data ratios, systematic understanding of how synthetic data proportion affects model behavior across different scales remains limited. This paper presents a controlled empirical study examining model performance, calibration, and output characteristics when trained on varying synthetic-to-external data ratios. Using the Pythia model suite (410M-12B parameters) across five diverse tasks, we evaluate models after one to three training iterations with synthetic data proportions ranging from 0-50\%. Our key findings include: models maintain stable performance with up to 20\% synthetic data, but degradation accelerates beyond 30\%; larger models (6.9B-12B) show greater robustness to synthetic data than smaller models (410M-1.4B); calibration degradation precedes accuracy loss, providing an early warning signal; and task characteristics matter, with reasoning tasks degrading faster than retrieval tasks under synthetic data training. Importantly, we find that current best practices, such as those employed in STaR and Self-Instruct systems that maintain greater than 80\% external data, operate well within safe regimes identified by our experiments. We provide practical guidance for practitioners on synthetic data budgets based on model scale and task requirements, alongside detailed comparison with concurrent work including Shumailov et al.'s model collapse findings.

In the context of pretraining of Large Language Models (LLMs), synthetic data has emerged as an alternative for generating high-quality pretraining data at scale. This is particularly beneficial in low-resource language settings where the benefits of recent LLMs have been unevenly distributed across languages. In this work, we present a systematic study on the generation and evaluation of synthetic multilingual pretraining data for Indic languages, where we construct a large-scale synthetic dataset BhashaKritika, comprising 540B tokens using 5 different techniques for 10 languages. We explore the impact of grounding generation in documents, personas, and topics. We analyze how language choice, both in the prompt instructions and document grounding, affects data quality, and we compare translations of English content with native generation in Indic languages. To support scalable and language-sensitive evaluation, we introduce a modular quality evaluation pipeline that integrates script and language detection, metadata consistency checks, n-gram repetition analysis, and perplexity-based filtering using KenLM models. Our framework enables robust quality control across diverse scripts and linguistic contexts. Empirical results through model runs reveal key trade-offs in generation strategies and highlight best practices for constructing effective multilingual corpora.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated strong capabilities as autonomous agents, showing promise in reasoning, tool use, and sequential decision-making. While prior benchmarks have evaluated LLM agents in domains such as software engineering and scientific discovery, the finance domain remains underexplored, despite its direct relevance to economic value and high-stakes decision-making. Existing financial benchmarks primarily test static knowledge through question answering, but they fall short of capturing the dynamic and iterative nature of trading. To address this gap, we introduce StockBench, a contamination-free benchmark designed to evaluate LLM agents in realistic, multi-month stock trading environments. Agents receive daily market signals -- including prices, fundamentals, and news -- and must make sequential buy, sell, or hold decisions. Performance is assessed using financial metrics such as cumulative return, maximum drawdown, and the Sortino ratio. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art proprietary (e.g., GPT-5, Claude-4) and open-weight (e.g., Qwen3, Kimi-K2, GLM-4.5) models shows that while most LLM agents struggle to outperform the simple buy-and-hold baseline, several models demonstrate the potential to deliver higher returns and manage risk more effectively. These findings highlight both the challenges and opportunities in developing LLM-powered financial agents, showing that excelling at static financial knowledge tasks does not necessarily translate into successful trading strategies. We release StockBench as an open-source resource to support reproducibility and advance future research in this domain.

Data is the lifeblood of AI, yet much of the most valuable data remains locked in silos due to privacy and regulations. As a result, AI remains heavily underutilized in many of the most important domains, including healthcare, education, and finance. Synthetic data generation (SDG), i.e. the generation of artificial data with a synthesizer trained on real data, offers an appealing solution to make data available while mitigating privacy concerns, however existing SDG-as-a-service workflow require data holders to trust providers with access to private data.We propose FHAIM, the first fully homomorphic encryption (FHE) framework for training a marginal-based synthetic data generator on encrypted tabular data. FHAIM adapts the widely used AIM algorithm to the FHE setting using novel FHE protocols, ensuring that the private data remains encrypted throughout and is released only with differential privacy guarantees. Our empirical analysis show that FHAIM preserves the performance of AIM while maintaining feasible runtimes.

The widespread adoption of synthetic data raises new questions about how models generating the data can influence other large language models (LLMs) via distilled data. To start, our work exhaustively characterizes the impact of passive inheritance of model properties by systematically studying the consequences of synthetic data integration. We provide one of the most comprehensive studies to-date of how the source of synthetic data shapes models' internal biases, calibration and generations' textual attributes and preferences. We find that models are surprisingly sensitive towards certain attributes even when the synthetic data prompts appear "neutral". which invites the question whether this sensitivity can be exploited for good. Our findings invite the question can we explicitly steer the models towards the properties we want at test time by exploiting the data generation process? This would have historically been considered infeasible due to the cost of collecting data with a specific characteristic or objective in mind. However, improvement in the quality of synthetic data, as well as a shift towards general-purpose models designed to follow a diverse way of instructions, means this question is timely. We propose active inheritance as a term to describe intentionally constraining synthetic data according to a non-differentiable objective. We demonstrate how active inheritance can steer the generation profiles of models towards desirable non-differentiable attributes, e.g. high lexical diversity or low toxicity.

Differentially private (DP) synthetic data generation plays a pivotal role in developing large language models (LLMs) on private data, where data owners cannot provide eyes-on access to individual examples. Generating DP synthetic data typically involves a difficult trade-off. On one hand, DP finetuning methods train an LLM as a synthetic data generator with formal privacy guarantees, yet it still requires the raw content of private examples for model training. However, methods that avoid direct exposure to private data are bounded by an off-the-shelf, un-finetuned model, whose outputs often lack domain fidelity. Can we train an LLM to generate high-quality synthetic text without eyes-on access to individual private examples? In this work, we introduce Differentially Private Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (DP-RFT), an online reinforcement learning algorithm for synthetic data generation with LLMs. DP-RFT leverages DP-protected nearest-neighbor votes from an eyes-off private corpus as a reward signal for on-policy synthetic samples generated by an LLM. The LLM iteratively learns to generate synthetic data to maximize the expected DP votes through Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO). We evaluate DP-RFT for long-form and domain-specific synthetic data generation, such as news articles, meeting transcripts, and medical article abstracts. Our experiments show that DP-RFT closes the gap between private evolution and DP finetuning methods in terms of the fidelity and downstream utility of the generated synthetic data, while respecting the private data boundary.

A key theme in the past decade has been that when large neural networks and large datasets combine they can produce remarkable results. In deep reinforcement learning (RL), this paradigm is commonly made possible through experience replay, whereby a dataset of past experiences is used to train a policy or value function. However, unlike in supervised or self-supervised learning, an RL agent has to collect its own data, which is often limited. Thus, it is challenging to reap the benefits of deep learning, and even small neural networks can overfit at the start of training. In this work, we leverage the tremendous recent progress in generative modeling and propose Synthetic Experience Replay (SynthER), a diffusion-based approach to flexibly upsample an agent's collected experience. We show that SynthER is an effective method for training RL agents across offline and online settings, in both proprioceptive and pixel-based environments. In offline settings, we observe drastic improvements when upsampling small offline datasets and see that additional synthetic data also allows us to effectively train larger networks. Furthermore, SynthER enables online agents to train with a much higher update-to-data ratio than before, leading to a significant increase in sample efficiency, without any algorithmic changes. We believe that synthetic training data could open the door to realizing the full potential of deep learning for replay-based RL algorithms from limited data. Finally, we open-source our code at https://github.com/conglu1997/SynthER.

With the advent of AI agents, automatic scientific discovery has become a tenable goal. Many recent works scaffold agentic systems that can perform machine learning research, but don't offer a principled way to train such agents -- and current LLMs often generate plausible-looking but ineffective ideas. To make progress on training agents that can learn from doing, we provide a novel synthetic environment generation pipeline targeting machine learning agents. Our pipeline automatically synthesizes machine learning challenges compatible with the SWE-agent framework, covering topic sampling, dataset proposal, and code generation. The resulting synthetic tasks are 1) grounded in real machine learning datasets, because the proposed datasets are verified against the Huggingface API and are 2) verified for higher quality with a self-debugging loop. To validate the effectiveness of our synthetic tasks, we tackle MLGym, a benchmark for machine learning tasks. From the synthetic tasks, we sample trajectories from a teacher model (GPT-5), then use the trajectories to train a student model (Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B). The student models trained with our synthetic tasks achieve improved performance on MLGym, raising the AUP metric by 9% for Qwen3-4B and 12% for Qwen3-8B.

This research explores the application of large language models (LLMs) to generate synthetic datasets for Product Desirability Toolkit (PDT) testing, a key component in evaluating user sentiment and product experience. Utilizing gpt-4o-mini, a cost-effective alternative to larger commercial LLMs, three methods, Word+Review, Review+Word, and Supply-Word, were each used to synthesize 1000 product reviews. The generated datasets were assessed for sentiment alignment, textual diversity, and data generation cost. Results demonstrated high sentiment alignment across all methods, with Pearson correlations ranging from 0.93 to 0.97. Supply-Word exhibited the highest diversity and coverage of PDT terms, although with increased generation costs. Despite minor biases toward positive sentiments, in situations with limited test data, LLM-generated synthetic data offers significant advantages, including scalability, cost savings, and flexibility in dataset production.

Industrial mushroom cultivation increasingly relies on computer vision for monitoring and automated harvesting. However, developing accurate detection and segmentation models requires large, precisely annotated datasets that are costly to produce. Synthetic data provides a scalable alternative, yet often lacks sufficient realism to generalize to real-world scenarios. This paper presents a novel workflow that integrates 3D rendering in Blender with a constrained diffusion model to automatically generate high-quality annotated, photorealistic synthetic images of Agaricus Bisporus mushrooms. This approach preserves full control over 3D scene configuration and annotations while achieving photorealism without the need for specialized computer graphics expertise. We release two synthetic datasets (each containing 6,000 images depicting over 250k mushroom instances) and evaluate Mask R-CNN models trained on them in a zero-shot setting. When tested on two independent real-world datasets (including a newly collected benchmark), our method achieves state-of-the-art segmentation performance (F1 = 0.859 on M18K), despite using only synthetic training data. Although the approach is demonstrated on Agaricus Bisporus mushrooms, the proposed pipeline can be readily adapted to other mushroom species or to other agricultural domains, such as fruit and leaf detection.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

Web agents struggle to adapt to new websites due to the scarcity of environment specific tasks and demonstrations. Recent works have explored synthetic data generation to address this challenge, however, they suffer from data quality issues where synthesized tasks contain hallucinations that cannot be executed, and collected trajectories are noisy with redundant or misaligned actions. In this paper, we propose SynthAgent, a fully synthetic supervision framework that aims at improving synthetic data quality via dual refinement of both tasks and trajectories. Our approach begins by synthesizing diverse tasks through categorized exploration of web elements, ensuring efficient coverage of the target environment. During trajectory collection, we refine tasks when conflicts with actual observations are detected, mitigating hallucinations while maintaining task consistency. After collection, we conduct trajectory refinement with a global context to mitigate potential noise or misalignments. Finally, we fine-tune open-source web agents on the refined synthetic data to adapt them to the target environment. Experimental results demonstrate that SynthAgent outperforms existing synthetic data methods, validating the importance of high-quality synthetic supervision. The code will be publicly available at https://github.com/aiming-lab/SynthAgent.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

We present the Open Stamped Parts Dataset (OSPD), featuring synthetic and real images of stamped metal sheets for auto manufacturing. The real part images, captured from 7 cameras, consist of 7,980 unlabeled images and 1,680 labeled images. In addition, we have compiled a defect dataset by overlaying synthetically generated masks on 10\% of the holes. The synthetic dataset replicates the real manufacturing environment in terms of lighting and part placement relative to the cameras. The synthetic data includes 7,980 training images, 1,680 validation images and 1,680 test images, each with bounding box and segmentation mask annotations around all holes. 10\% of the holes in the synthetic data mimic defects generated in the real image dataset. We trained a hole-detection model on the synthetic-OSPD, achieving a modified recall score of 67.2\% and a precision of 94.4\% . We anticipate researchers in auto manufacturing use OSPD to advance the state of the art in defect detection of stamped holes in the metal-sheet stamping process. The dataset is available for download at: https://tinyurl.com/hm6xatd7.

Data synthesis has been advocated as an important approach for utilizing data while protecting data privacy. A large number of tabular data synthesis algorithms (which we call synthesizers) have been proposed. Some synthesizers satisfy Differential Privacy, while others aim to provide privacy in a heuristic fashion. A comprehensive understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of these synthesizers remains elusive due to drawbacks in evaluation metrics and missing head-to-head comparisons of newly developed synthesizers that take advantage of diffusion models and large language models with state-of-the-art marginal-based synthesizers. In this paper, we present a systematic evaluation framework for assessing tabular data synthesis algorithms. Specifically, we examine and critique existing evaluation metrics, and introduce a set of new metrics in terms of fidelity, privacy, and utility to address their limitations. Based on the proposed metrics, we also devise a unified objective for tuning, which can consistently improve the quality of synthetic data for all methods. We conducted extensive evaluations of 8 different types of synthesizers on 12 real-world datasets and identified some interesting findings, which offer new directions for privacy-preserving data synthesis.

Synthetic data generators, when trained using privacy-preserving techniques like differential privacy, promise to produce synthetic data with formal privacy guarantees, facilitating the sharing of sensitive data. However, it is crucial to empirically assess the privacy risks associated with the generated synthetic data before deploying generative technologies. This paper outlines the key concepts and assumptions underlying empirical privacy evaluation in machine learning-based generative and predictive models. Then, this paper explores the practical challenges for privacy evaluations of generative models for use cases with millions of training records, such as data from statistical agencies and healthcare providers. Our findings indicate that methods designed to verify the correct operation of the training algorithm are effective for large datasets, but they often assume an adversary that is unrealistic in many scenarios. Based on the findings, we highlight a crucial trade-off between the computational feasibility of the evaluation and the level of realism of the assumed threat model. Finally, we conclude with ideas and suggestions for future research.

The public availability of collections containing user preferences is of vital importance for performing offline evaluations in the field of recommender systems. However, the number of rating datasets is limited because of the costs required for their creation and the fear of violating the privacy of the users by sharing them. For this reason, numerous research attempts investigated the creation of synthetic collections of ratings using generative approaches. Nevertheless, these datasets are usually not reliable enough for conducting an evaluation campaign. In this paper, we propose a method for creating synthetic datasets with a configurable number of users that mimic the characteristics of already existing ones. We empirically validated the proposed approach by exploiting the synthetic datasets for evaluating different recommenders and by comparing the results with the ones obtained using real datasets.

We present SynthTextEval, a toolkit for conducting comprehensive evaluations of synthetic text. The fluency of large language model (LLM) outputs has made synthetic text potentially viable for numerous applications, such as reducing the risks of privacy violations in the development and deployment of AI systems in high-stakes domains. Realizing this potential, however, requires principled consistent evaluations of synthetic data across multiple dimensions: its utility in downstream systems, the fairness of these systems, the risk of privacy leakage, general distributional differences from the source text, and qualitative feedback from domain experts. SynthTextEval allows users to conduct evaluations along all of these dimensions over synthetic data that they upload or generate using the toolkit's generation module. While our toolkit can be run over any data, we highlight its functionality and effectiveness over datasets from two high-stakes domains: healthcare and law. By consolidating and standardizing evaluation metrics, we aim to improve the viability of synthetic text, and in-turn, privacy-preservation in AI development.