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Apr 22

RoboPhD: Self-Improving Text-to-SQL Through Autonomous Agent Evolution

We present RoboPhD, a system where AI agents autonomously conduct research to improve Text-to-SQL performance. RoboPhD implements a closed-loop evolution cycle with two coordinated components: a SQL Generation agent composed of a database analysis script and SQL generation instructions, and an Evolution agent that designs new versions based on performance feedback. Central to the framework is an ELO-based selection mechanism enabling survival-of-the-fittest dynamics while handling non-transitivity in performance. Starting from a naive 70-line baseline, RoboPhD evolves agents through iterative cross-pollination, discovering effective techniques without any external guidance on the Text-to-SQL domain. Our best agent, evolved to 1500 lines over 18 iterations, autonomously discovered strategies such as size-adaptive database analysis that adjusts depth based on schema complexity and SQL generation patterns for column selection, evidence interpretation, and aggregation. Evolution provides the largest gains on cheaper models: while we improve by 2.3 points over a strong Claude Opus 4.5 naive baseline, we show an improvement of 8.9 points over the weaker Claude Haiku model. This enables 'skip a tier' deployment: evolved Haiku exceeds naive Sonnet accuracy, and evolved Sonnet exceeds naive Opus, both at lower cost. The full system achieves 73.67% accuracy on the BIRD test set, demonstrating that AI can autonomously build a strong agentic system with only a trivial human-provided starting point.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 25

Evaluating Intelligence via Trial and Error

Intelligence is a crucial trait for species to find solutions within a limited number of trial-and-error attempts. Building on this idea, we introduce Survival Game as a framework to evaluate intelligence based on the number of failed attempts in a trial-and-error process. Fewer failures indicate higher intelligence. When the expectation and variance of failure counts are both finite, it signals the ability to consistently find solutions to new challenges, which we define as the Autonomous Level of intelligence. Using Survival Game, we comprehensively evaluate existing AI systems. Our results show that while AI systems achieve the Autonomous Level in simple tasks, they are still far from it in more complex tasks, such as vision, search, recommendation, and language. While scaling current AI technologies might help, this would come at an astronomical cost. Projections suggest that achieving the Autonomous Level for general tasks would require 10^{26} parameters. To put this into perspective, loading such a massive model requires so many H100 GPUs that their total value is 10^{7} times that of Apple Inc.'s market value. Even with Moore's Law, supporting such a parameter scale would take 70 years. This staggering cost highlights the complexity of human tasks and the inadequacies of current AI technologies. To further investigate this phenomenon, we conduct a theoretical analysis of Survival Game and its experimental results. Our findings suggest that human tasks possess a criticality property. As a result, Autonomous Level requires a deep understanding of the task's underlying mechanisms. Current AI systems, however, do not fully grasp these mechanisms and instead rely on superficial mimicry, making it difficult for them to reach an autonomous level. We believe Survival Game can not only guide the future development of AI but also offer profound insights into human intelligence.

  • 10 authors
·
Feb 26, 2025 3

A Flexible Parametric Modelling Framework for Survival Analysis

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 10, 2019