Daily Papers

Agents must infer action outcomes and select actions that maximize a reward signal indicating how close the goal is to being reached. Supervised learning of reward models could introduce biases inherent to training data, limiting generalization to novel goals and environments. In this paper, we investigate whether well-defined world state representations alone can enable accurate reward prediction across domains. To address this, we introduce StateFactory, a factorized representation method that transforms unstructured observations into a hierarchical object-attribute structure using language models. This structured representation allows rewards to be estimated naturally as the semantic similarity between the current state and the goal state under hierarchical constraint. Overall, the compact representation structure induced by StateFactory enables strong reward generalization capabilities. We evaluate on RewardPrediction, a new benchmark dataset spanning five diverse domains and comprising 2,454 unique action-observation trajectories with step-wise ground-truth rewards. Our method shows promising zero-shot results against both VLWM-critic and LLM-as-a-Judge reward models, achieving 60% and 8% lower EPIC distance, respectively. Furthermore, this superior reward quality successfully translates into improved agent planning performance, yielding success rate gains of +21.64% on AlfWorld and +12.40% on ScienceWorld over reactive system-1 policies and enhancing system-2 agent planning. Project Page: https://statefactory.github.io

We introduce UniGraspTransformer, a universal Transformer-based network for dexterous robotic grasping that simplifies training while enhancing scalability and performance. Unlike prior methods such as UniDexGrasp++, which require complex, multi-step training pipelines, UniGraspTransformer follows a streamlined process: first, dedicated policy networks are trained for individual objects using reinforcement learning to generate successful grasp trajectories; then, these trajectories are distilled into a single, universal network. Our approach enables UniGraspTransformer to scale effectively, incorporating up to 12 self-attention blocks for handling thousands of objects with diverse poses. Additionally, it generalizes well to both idealized and real-world inputs, evaluated in state-based and vision-based settings. Notably, UniGraspTransformer generates a broader range of grasping poses for objects in various shapes and orientations, resulting in more diverse grasp strategies. Experimental results demonstrate significant improvements over state-of-the-art, UniDexGrasp++, across various object categories, achieving success rate gains of 3.5%, 7.7%, and 10.1% on seen objects, unseen objects within seen categories, and completely unseen objects, respectively, in the vision-based setting. Project page: https://dexhand.github.io/UniGraspTransformer.

Vision-language models (VLMs) have been widely-applied in ground-based vision-language navigation (VLN). However, the vast complexity of outdoor aerial environments compounds data acquisition challenges and imposes long-horizon trajectory planning requirements on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), introducing novel complexities for aerial VLN. To address these challenges, we propose a data-efficient Open-world aerial Vision-Language Navigation (i.e., OpenVLN) framework, which could execute language-guided flight with limited data constraints and enhance long-horizon trajectory planning capabilities in complex aerial environments. Specifically, we reconfigure a reinforcement learning framework to optimize the VLM for UAV navigation tasks, which can efficiently fine-tune VLM by using rule-based policies under limited training data. Concurrently, we introduce a long-horizon planner for trajectory synthesis that dynamically generates precise UAV actions via value-based rewards. To the end, we conduct sufficient navigation experiments on the TravelUAV benchmark with dataset scaling across diverse reward settings. Our method demonstrates consistent performance gains of up to 4.34% in Success Rate, 6.19% in Oracle Success Rate, and 4.07% in Success weighted by Path Length over baseline methods, validating its deployment efficacy for long-horizon UAV navigation in complex aerial environments.

Recent advances in LLM agents have largely built on reasoning backbones like ReAct, which interleave thought and action in complex environments. However, ReAct often produces ungrounded or incoherent reasoning steps, leading to misalignment between the agent's actual state and goal. Our analysis finds that this stems from ReAct's inability to maintain consistent internal beliefs and goal alignment, causing compounding errors and hallucinations. To address this, we introduce ReflAct, a novel backbone that shifts reasoning from merely planning next actions to continuously reflecting on the agent's state relative to its goal. By explicitly grounding decisions in states and enforcing ongoing goal alignment, ReflAct dramatically improves strategic reliability. This design delivers substantial empirical gains: ReflAct surpasses ReAct by 27.7% on average, achieving a 93.3% success rate in ALFWorld. Notably, ReflAct even outperforms ReAct with added enhancement modules (e.g., Reflexion, WKM), showing that strengthening the core reasoning backbone is key to reliable agent performance.

Jailbreaking is an essential adversarial technique for red-teaming these models to uncover and patch security flaws. However, existing jailbreak methods face significant drawbacks. Token-level jailbreak attacks often produce incoherent or unreadable inputs and exhibit poor transferability, while prompt-level attacks lack scalability and rely heavily on manual effort and human ingenuity. We propose a concise and effective two-stage framework that combines the advantages of these approaches. The first stage performs a scenario-based generation of context and rephrases the original malicious query to obscure its harmful intent. The second stage then utilizes information from the model's hidden states to guide fine-grained edits, effectively steering the model's internal representation of the input from a malicious toward a benign one. Extensive experiments demonstrate that this method achieves state-of-the-art Attack Success Rate, with gains of up to 37.74% over the strongest baseline, and exhibits excellent transferability to black-box models. Our analysis further demonstrates that AGILE maintains substantial effectiveness against prominent defense mechanisms, highlighting the limitations of current safeguards and providing valuable insights for future defense development. Our code is available at https://github.com/yunsaijc/AGILE.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have enabled the development of autonomous agents capable of complex reasoning and multi-step problem solving. However, these agents struggle to adapt to specialized environments and do not leverage past interactions, approaching each new task from scratch regardless of their accumulated experience. We introduce Experiential Reflective Learning (ERL), a simple self-improvement framework that enables rapid environment adaptation through experiential learning. ERL reflects on task trajectories and outcomes to generate heuristics, capturing actionable lessons that transfer across tasks. At test time, relevant heuristics are retrieved based on the current task and injected into the agent's context to guide execution. On the Gaia2 benchmark, ERL improves success rate by 7.8% over a ReAct baseline, with large gains in task completion reliability, and outperforms prior experiential learning methods. Through systematic ablations, we find that selective retrieval is essential and that heuristics provide more transferable abstractions than few-shot trajectory prompting. These results demonstrate that reflecting on single-attempt experiences to extract transferable heuristics enables effective agent self-improvement.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents are rapidly improving to handle increasingly complex web-based tasks. Most of these agents rely on general-purpose, proprietary models like GPT-4 and focus on designing better prompts to improve their planning abilities. However, general-purpose LLMs are not specifically trained to understand specialized web contexts such as HTML, and they often struggle with long-horizon planning. We explore an alternative approach that fine-tunes open-source LLMs using production-scale workflow data collected from over 250 domains corresponding to 6 billion tokens. This simple yet effective approach shows substantial gains over prompting-based agents on existing benchmarks -- ScribeAgent achieves state-of-the-art direct generation performance on Mind2Web and improves the task success rate by 14.1% over the previous best text-only web agents on WebArena. We further perform detailed ablation studies on various fine-tuning design choices and provide insights into LLM selection, training recipes, context window optimization, and effect of dataset sizes.

Recent advancements in visual language models (VLMs) have notably enhanced their capabilities in handling complex Graphical User Interface (GUI) interaction tasks. Despite these improvements, current frameworks often struggle to generate correct actions in challenging GUI environments. State-of-the-art commercial VLMs are black-boxes, and fine-tuning open-source VLMs for GUI tasks requires significant resources. Additionally, existing trajectory-level evaluation and refinement techniques frequently fall short due to delayed feedback and local optimization issues. To address these challenges, we propose an approach that guides VLM agents with process supervision by a reward model during GUI navigation and control at inference time. This guidance allows the VLM agent to optimize actions at each inference step, thereby improving performance in both static and dynamic environments. In particular, our method demonstrates significant performance gains in three GUI navigation tasks, achieving a 3.4% improvement in single step action accuracy for static environments, along with a around 33% increase in task success rate in one dynamic environment. With further integration of trajectory reflection and retry mechanisms, we also demonstrate even greater enhancement in task success.

Parallel test-time scaling typically trains separate generation and verification models, incurring high training and inference costs. We propose Advantage Decoupled Preference Optimization (ADPO), a unified reinforcement learning framework that jointly learns answer generation and self-verification within a single policy. ADPO introduces two innovations: a preference verification reward improving verification capability and a decoupled optimization mechanism enabling synergistic optimization of generation and verification. Specifically, the preference verification reward computes mean verification scores from positive and negative samples as decision thresholds, providing positive feedback when prediction correctness aligns with answer correctness. Meanwhile, the advantage decoupled optimization computes separate advantages for generation and verification, applies token masks to isolate gradients, and combines masked GRPO objectives, preserving generation quality while calibrating verification scores. ADPO achieves up to +34.1% higher verification AUC and -53.5% lower inference time, with significant gains of +2.8%/+1.4% accuracy on MathVista/MMMU, +1.9 cIoU on ReasonSeg, and +1.7%/+1.0% step success rate on AndroidControl/GUI Odyssey.

We introduce Green-VLA, a staged Vision-Language-Action (VLA) framework for real-world deployment on the Green humanoid robot while maintaining generalization across diverse embodiments. Green-VLA follows a five stage curriculum: (L0) foundational VLMs, (L1) multimodal grounding, (R0) multi-embodiment pretraining, (R1) embodiment-specific adaptation, and (R2) reinforcement-learning (RL) policy alignment. We couple a scalable data-processing pipeline (3,000 hours of demonstrations) with temporal alignment and quality filtering, and use a unified, embodiment-aware action interface enabling a single policy to control humanoids, mobile manipulators, and fixed-base arms. At inference, the VLA controller is enhanced with episode-progress prediction, out-of-distribution detection, and joint-prediction-based guidance to improve safety and precise target selection. Experiments on Simpler BRIDGE WidowX and CALVIN ABC-D, as well as real-robot evaluations, show strong generalization and performance gains from RL alignment in success rate, robustness, and long-horizon efficiency.

Executing language-conditioned tasks in dynamic visual environments remains a central challenge in embodied AI. Existing Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models predominantly adopt reactive state-to-action mappings, often leading to short-sighted behaviors and poor robustness in dynamic scenes. In this paper, we introduce F1, a pretrained VLA framework which integrates the visual foresight generation into decision-making pipeline. F1 adopts a Mixture-of-Transformer architecture with dedicated modules for perception, foresight generation, and control, thereby bridging understanding, generation, and actions. At its core, F1 employs a next-scale prediction mechanism to synthesize goal-conditioned visual foresight as explicit planning targets. By forecasting plausible future visual states, F1 reformulates action generation as a foresight-guided inverse dynamics problem, enabling actions that implicitly achieve visual goals. To endow F1 with robust and generalizable capabilities, we propose a three-stage training recipe on an extensive dataset comprising over 330k trajectories across 136 diverse tasks. This training scheme enhances modular reasoning and equips the model with transferable visual foresight, which is critical for complex and dynamic environments. Extensive evaluations on real-world tasks and simulation benchmarks demonstrate F1 consistently outperforms existing approaches, achieving substantial gains in both task success rate and generalization ability.

A reliable executable environment is the foundation for ensuring that large language models solve software engineering tasks. Due to the complex and tedious construction process, large-scale configuration is relatively inefficient. However, most methods always overlook fine-grained analysis of the actions performed by the agent, making it difficult to handle complex errors and resulting in configuration failures. To address this bottleneck, we propose EvoConfig, an efficient environment configuration framework that optimizes multi-agent collaboration to build correct runtime environments. EvoConfig features an expert diagnosis module for fine-grained post-execution analysis, and a self-evolving mechanism that lets expert agents self-feedback and dynamically adjust error-fixing priorities in real time. Empirically, EvoConfig matches the previous state-of-the-art Repo2Run on Repo2Run's 420 repositories, while delivering clear gains on harder cases: on the more challenging Envbench, EvoConfig achieves a 78.1% success rate, outperforming Repo2Run by 7.1%. Beyond end-to-end success, EvoConfig also demonstrates stronger debugging competence, achieving higher accuracy in error identification and producing more effective repair recommendations than existing methods.

Imitation learning method has shown immense promise for robotic manipulation, yet its practical deployment is fundamentally constrained by the data scarcity. Despite prior work on collecting large-scale datasets, there still remains a significant gap to robust spatial generalization. We identify a key limitation: individual trajectories, regardless of their length, are typically collected from a single, static spatial configuration of the environment. This includes fixed object and target spatial positions as well as unchanging camera viewpoints, which significantly restricts the diversity of spatial information available for learning. To address this critical bottleneck in data efficiency, we propose MOtion-Based Variability Enhancement (MOVE), a simple yet effective data collection paradigm that enables the acquisition of richer spatial information from dynamic demonstrations. Our core contribution is an augmentation strategy that injects motion into any movable objects within the environment for each demonstration. This process implicitly generates a dense and diverse set of spatial configurations within a single trajectory. We conduct extensive experiments in both simulation and real-world environments to validate our approach. For example, in simulation tasks requiring strong spatial generalization, MOVE achieves an average success rate of 39.1\%, a 76.1\% relative improvement over the static data collection paradigm (22.2\%), and yields up to 2--5times gains in data efficiency on certain tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/lucywang720/MOVE.

Large language models are increasingly used as personal assistants, yet most lack a persistent user model, forcing users to repeatedly restate preferences across sessions. We propose Vector-Adapted Retrieval Scoring (VARS), a pipeline-agnostic, frozen-backbone framework that represents each user with long-term and short-term vectors in a shared preference space and uses these vectors to bias retrieval scoring over structured preference memory. The vectors are updated online from weak scalar rewards from users' feedback, enabling personalization without per-user fine-tuning. We evaluate on MultiSessionCollab, an online multi-session collaboration benchmark with rich user preference profiles, across math and code tasks. Under frozen backbones, the main benefit of user-aware retrieval is improved interaction efficiency rather than large gains in raw task accuracy: our full VARS agent achieves the strongest overall performance, matches a strong Reflection baseline in task success, and reduces timeout rate and user effort. The learned long-term vectors also align with cross-user preference overlap, while short-term vectors capture session-specific adaptation, supporting the interpretability of the dual-vector design. Code, model, and data are available at https://github.com/YurenHao0426/VARS.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models pre-trained on large, diverse datasets show remarkable potential for general-purpose robotic manipulation. However, a primary bottleneck remains in adapting these models to downstream tasks, especially when the robot's embodiment or the task itself differs from the pre-training data. This discrepancy leads to a significant mismatch in action distributions, demanding extensive data and compute for effective fine-tuning. To address this challenge, we introduce Align-Then-stEer (\texttt{ATE)}, a novel, data-efficient, and plug-and-play adaptation framework. ATE first aligns disparate action spaces by constructing a unified latent space, where a variational autoencoder constrained by reverse KL divergence embeds adaptation actions into modes of the pre-training action latent distribution. Subsequently, it steers the diffusion- or flow-based VLA's generation process during fine-tuning via a guidance mechanism that pushes the model's output distribution towards the target domain. We conduct extensive experiments on cross-embodiment and cross-task manipulation in both simulation and real world. Compared to direct fine-tuning of representative VLAs, our method improves the average multi-task success rate by up to 9.8\% in simulation and achieves a striking 32\% success rate gain in a real-world cross-embodiment setting. Our work presents a general and lightweight solution that greatly enhances the practicality of deploying VLA models to new robotic platforms and tasks.

A generalist robotic policy needs both semantic understanding for task planning and the ability to interact with the environment through predictive capabilities. To tackle this, we present MM-ACT, a unified Vision-Language-Action (VLA) model that integrates text, image, and action in shared token space and performs generation across all three modalities. MM-ACT adopts a re-mask parallel decoding strategy for text and image generation, and employs a one-step parallel decoding strategy for action generation to improve efficiency. We introduce Context-Shared Multimodal Learning, a unified training paradigm that supervises generation in all three modalities from a shared context, enhancing action generation through cross-modal learning. Experiments were conducted on the LIBERO simulation and Franka real-robot setups as well as RoboTwin2.0 to assess in-domain and out-of-domain performances respectively. Our approach achieves a success rate of 96.3% on LIBERO, 72.0% across three tasks of real Franka, and 52.38% across eight bimanual tasks of RoboTwin2.0 with an additional gain of 9.25% from cross-modal learning. We release our codes, models and data at https://github.com/HHYHRHY/MM-ACT.

The Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM 2) has demonstrated strong performance in object segmentation tasks but faces challenges in visual object tracking, particularly when managing crowded scenes with fast-moving or self-occluding objects. Furthermore, the fixed-window memory approach in the original model does not consider the quality of memories selected to condition the image features for the next frame, leading to error propagation in videos. This paper introduces SAMURAI, an enhanced adaptation of SAM 2 specifically designed for visual object tracking. By incorporating temporal motion cues with the proposed motion-aware memory selection mechanism, SAMURAI effectively predicts object motion and refines mask selection, achieving robust, accurate tracking without the need for retraining or fine-tuning. SAMURAI operates in real-time and demonstrates strong zero-shot performance across diverse benchmark datasets, showcasing its ability to generalize without fine-tuning. In evaluations, SAMURAI achieves significant improvements in success rate and precision over existing trackers, with a 7.1% AUC gain on LaSOT_{ext} and a 3.5% AO gain on GOT-10k. Moreover, it achieves competitive results compared to fully supervised methods on LaSOT, underscoring its robustness in complex tracking scenarios and its potential for real-world applications in dynamic environments. Code and results are available at https://github.com/yangchris11/samurai.

As the integration of the Large Language Models (LLMs) into various applications increases, so does their susceptibility to misuse, raising significant security concerns. Numerous jailbreak attacks have been proposed to assess the security defense of LLMs. Current jailbreak attacks mainly rely on scenario camouflage, prompt obfuscation, prompt optimization, and prompt iterative optimization to conceal malicious prompts. In particular, sequential prompt chains in a single query can lead LLMs to focus on certain prompts while ignoring others, facilitating context manipulation. This paper introduces SequentialBreak, a novel jailbreak attack that exploits this vulnerability. We discuss several scenarios, not limited to examples like Question Bank, Dialog Completion, and Game Environment, where the harmful prompt is embedded within benign ones that can fool LLMs into generating harmful responses. The distinct narrative structures of these scenarios show that SequentialBreak is flexible enough to adapt to various prompt formats beyond those discussed. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SequentialBreak uses only a single query to achieve a substantial gain of attack success rate over existing baselines against both open-source and closed-source models. Through our research, we highlight the urgent need for more robust and resilient safeguards to enhance LLM security and prevent potential misuse. All the result files and website associated with this research are available in this GitHub repository: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/JailBreakAttack-4F3B/.

Despite recent progress, learning new tasks through language instructions remains an extremely challenging problem. On the ALFRED benchmark for task learning, the published state-of-the-art system only achieves a task success rate of less than 10% in an unseen environment, compared to the human performance of over 90%. To address this issue, this paper takes a closer look at task learning. In a departure from a widely applied end-to-end architecture, we decomposed task learning into three sub-problems: sub-goal planning, scene navigation, and object manipulation; and developed a model HiTUT (stands for Hierarchical Tasks via Unified Transformers) that addresses each sub-problem in a unified manner to learn a hierarchical task structure. On the ALFRED benchmark, HiTUT has achieved the best performance with a remarkably higher generalization ability. In the unseen environment, HiTUT achieves over 160% performance gain in success rate compared to the previous state of the art. The explicit representation of task structures also enables an in-depth understanding of the nature of the problem and the ability of the agent, which provides insight for future benchmark development and evaluation.

Vision-language model (VLM) based GUI agents show promise for automating complex desktop and mobile tasks, but face significant challenges in applying reinforcement learning (RL): (1) slow multi-turn interactions with GUI environments for policy rollout, and (2) insufficient high-quality agent-environment interactions for policy learning. To address these challenges, we propose DART, a Decoupled Agentic RL Training framework for GUI agents, which coordinates heterogeneous modules in a highly decoupled manner. DART separates the training system into four asynchronous modules: environment cluster, rollout service, data manager, and trainer. This design enables non-blocking communication, asynchronous training, rollout-wise trajectory sampling, and per-worker model synchronization, significantly improving the system efficiency: 1.6*GPU utilization for rollout, 1.9* training throughput, and 5.5* environment utilization. To facilitate effective learning from abundant samples, we introduce an adaptive data curation scheme: (1) pre-collecting successful trajectories for challenging tasks to supplement sparse success in online sampling; (2) dynamically adjusting rollout numbers and trajectory lengths based on task difficulty; (3) training selectively on high-entropy steps to prioritize critical decisions; (4) stabilizing learning via truncated importance sampling for policy mismatch between policy rollout and updating. On the OSWorld benchmark, DART-GUI-7B achieves a 42.13% task success rate, a 14.61% absolute gain over the base model, and 7.34% higher than open-source SOTA. We will fully open-source our training framework, data, and model checkpoints via computer-use-agents.github.io/dart-gui, which we believe is a timely contribution to the open-source community of agentic RL training.

Large foundation models have shown strong open-world generalization to complex problems in vision and language, but similar levels of generalization have yet to be achieved in robotics. One fundamental challenge is the lack of robotic data, which are typically obtained through expensive on-robot operation. A promising remedy is to leverage cheaper, off-domain data such as action-free videos, hand-drawn sketches or simulation data. In this work, we posit that hierarchical vision-language-action (VLA) models can be more effective in utilizing off-domain data than standard monolithic VLA models that directly finetune vision-language models (VLMs) to predict actions. In particular, we study a class of hierarchical VLA models, where the high-level VLM is finetuned to produce a coarse 2D path indicating the desired robot end-effector trajectory given an RGB image and a task description. The intermediate 2D path prediction is then served as guidance to the low-level, 3D-aware control policy capable of precise manipulation. Doing so alleviates the high-level VLM from fine-grained action prediction, while reducing the low-level policy's burden on complex task-level reasoning. We show that, with the hierarchical design, the high-level VLM can transfer across significant domain gaps between the off-domain finetuning data and real-robot testing scenarios, including differences on embodiments, dynamics, visual appearances and task semantics, etc. In the real-robot experiments, we observe an average of 20% improvement in success rate across seven different axes of generalization over OpenVLA, representing a 50% relative gain. Visual results, code, and dataset are provided at: https://hamster-robot.github.io/

Morphing techniques generate artificial biometric samples that combine features from multiple individuals, allowing each contributor to be verified against a single enrolled template. While extensively studied in face recognition, this vulnerability remains largely unexplored in voice biometrics. Prior work on voice morphing is computationally expensive, non-scalable, and limited to acoustically similar identity pairs, constraining practical deployment. Moreover, existing sound-morphing methods target audio textures, music, or environmental sounds and are not transferable to voice identity manipulation. We propose VoxMorph, a zero-shot framework that produces high-fidelity voice morphs from as little as five seconds of audio per subject without model retraining. Our method disentangles vocal traits into prosody and timbre embeddings, enabling fine-grained interpolation of speaking style and identity. These embeddings are fused via Spherical Linear Interpolation (Slerp) and synthesized using an autoregressive language model coupled with a Conditional Flow Matching network. VoxMorph achieves state-of-the-art performance, delivering a 2.6x gain in audio quality, a 73% reduction in intelligibility errors, and a 67.8% morphing attack success rate on automated speaker verification systems under strict security thresholds. This work establishes a practical and scalable paradigm for voice morphing with significant implications for biometric security. The code and dataset are available on our project page: https://vcbsl.github.io/VoxMorph/

Generating property-optimized mRNA sequences is central to applications such as vaccine design and protein replacement therapy, but remains challenging due to limited data, complex sequence-function relationships, and the narrow space of biologically viable sequences. Generative methods that drift away from the data manifold can yield sequences that fail to fold, translate poorly, or are otherwise nonfunctional. We present RNAGenScape, a property-guided manifold Langevin dynamics framework for mRNA sequence generation that operates directly on a learned manifold of real data. By performing iterative local optimization constrained to this manifold, RNAGenScape preserves biological viability, accesses reliable guidance, and avoids excursions into nonfunctional regions of the ambient sequence space. The framework integrates three components: (1) an autoencoder jointly trained with a property predictor to learn a property-organized latent manifold, (2) a denoising autoencoder that projects updates back onto the manifold, and (3) a property-guided Langevin dynamics procedure that performs optimization along the manifold. Across three real-world mRNA datasets spanning two orders of magnitude in size, RNAGenScape increases median property gain by up to 148% and success rate by up to 30% while ensuring biological viability of generated sequences, and achieves competitive inference efficiency relative to existing generative approaches.

Standard vision-language-action (VLA) models rely on fitting statistical data priors, limiting their robust understanding of underlying physical dynamics. Reinforcement learning enhances physical grounding through exploration yet typically relies on external reward signals that remain isolated from the agent's internal states. World action models have emerged as a promising paradigm that integrates imagination and control to enable predictive planning. However, they rely on implicit context modeling, lacking explicit mechanisms for self-improvement. To solve these problems, we propose Self-Correcting VLA (SC-VLA), which achieve self-improvement by intrinsically guiding action refinement through sparse imagination. We first design sparse world imagination by integrating auxiliary predictive heads to forecast current task progress and future trajectory trends, thereby constraining the policy to encode short-term physical evolution. Then we introduce the online action refinement module to reshape progress-dependent dense rewards, adjusting trajectory orientation based on the predicted sparse future states. Evaluations on challenging robot manipulation tasks from simulation benchmarks and real-world settings demonstrate that SC-VLA achieve state-of-the-art performance, yielding the highest task throughput with 16% fewer steps and a 9% higher success rate than the best-performing baselines, alongside a 14% gain in real-world experiments. Code is available at https://github.com/Kisaragi0/SC-VLA.

Pretrained on large-scale and diverse datasets, VLA models demonstrate strong generalization and adaptability as general-purpose robotic policies. However, Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), which serves as the primary mechanism for adapting VLAs to downstream domains, requires substantial amounts of task-specific data and is prone to catastrophic forgetting. To address these limitations, we propose LifeLong-RFT, a simple yet effective Reinforcement Fine-Tuning (RFT) strategy for VLA models independent of online environmental feedback and pre-trained reward models. By integrating chunking-level on-policy reinforcement learning with the proposed Multi-Dimensional Process Reward (MDPR) mechanism, LifeLong-RFT quantifies the heterogeneous contributions of intermediate action chunks across three dimensions to facilitate policy optimization. Specifically, (1) the Quantized Action Consistency Reward (QACR) ensures accurate action prediction within the discrete action space; (2) the Continuous Trajectory Alignment Reward (CTAR) aligns decoded continuous action chunks with reference trajectories to ensure precise control; (3) the Format Compliance Reward (FCR) guarantees the structural validity of outputs. Comprehensive experiments across SimplerEnv, LIBERO, and real-world tasks demonstrate that LifeLong-RFT exhibits strong performance in multi-task learning. Furthermore, for continual learning on the LIBERO benchmark, our method achieves a 22% gain in average success rate over SFT, while effectively adapting to new tasks using only 20% of the training data. Overall, our method provides a promising post-training paradigm for VLAs.

The safety alignment of Large Language Models (LLMs) is vulnerable to both manual and automated jailbreak attacks, which adversarially trigger LLMs to output harmful content. However, current methods for jailbreaking LLMs, which nest entire harmful prompts, are not effective at concealing malicious intent and can be easily identified and rejected by well-aligned LLMs. This paper discovers that decomposing a malicious prompt into separated sub-prompts can effectively obscure its underlying malicious intent by presenting it in a fragmented, less detectable form, thereby addressing these limitations. We introduce an automatic prompt Decomposition and Reconstruction framework for jailbreak Attack (DrAttack). DrAttack includes three key components: (a) `Decomposition' of the original prompt into sub-prompts, (b) `Reconstruction' of these sub-prompts implicitly by in-context learning with semantically similar but harmless reassembling demo, and (c) a `Synonym Search' of sub-prompts, aiming to find sub-prompts' synonyms that maintain the original intent while jailbreaking LLMs. An extensive empirical study across multiple open-source and closed-source LLMs demonstrates that, with a significantly reduced number of queries, DrAttack obtains a substantial gain of success rate over prior SOTA prompt-only attackers. Notably, the success rate of 78.0\% on GPT-4 with merely 15 queries surpassed previous art by 33.1\%. The project is available at https://github.com/xirui-li/DrAttack.

As an important modeling paradigm in click-through rate (CTR) prediction, the Deep & Cross Network (DCN) and its derivative models have gained widespread recognition primarily due to their success in a trade-off between computational cost and performance. This paradigm employs a cross network to explicitly model feature interactions with linear growth, while leveraging deep neural networks (DNN) to implicitly capture higher-order feature interactions. However, these models still face several key limitations: (1) The performance of existing explicit feature interaction methods lags behind that of implicit DNN, resulting in overall model performance being dominated by the DNN; (2) While these models claim to capture high-order feature interactions, they often overlook potential noise within these interactions; (3) The learning process for different interaction network branches lacks appropriate supervision signals; and (4) The high-order feature interactions captured by these models are often implicit and non-interpretable due to their reliance on DNN. To address the identified limitations, this paper proposes a novel model, called Fusing Cross Network (FCN), along with two sub-networks: Linear Cross Network (LCN) and Exponential Cross Network (ECN). FCN explicitly captures feature interactions with both linear and exponential growth, eliminating the need to rely on implicit DNN. Moreover, we introduce the Self-Mask operation to filter noise layer by layer and reduce the number of parameters in the cross network by half. To effectively train these two cross networks, we propose a simple yet effective loss function called Tri-BCE, which provides tailored supervision signals for each network. We evaluate the effectiveness, efficiency, and interpretability of FCN on six benchmark datasets. Furthermore, by integrating LCN and ECN, FCN achieves a new state-of-the-art performance.

Independently trained domain specialists can be fused post-hoc into a single model that outperforms any individual specialist, and the gain is predictable: gain = 0.82 x divergence - 2.72 (R^2 = 0.856, n=6, 3-26% divergence). This enables practitioners to estimate cooperative value before committing compute. Below ~3.3% divergence, gains approach zero.In the KALAVAI protocol, contributors fine-tune copies of a shared checkpoint independently, then submit for lightweight MoE routing (500 steps). Gains are consistent: +7.72% at 410M (+/-0.02%, 3 seeds), +7.49% at 1B (+/-0.01%, 3 seeds), +6.53% at 6.9B, each over the best specialist. The router matches domain-oracle routing within <10^{-5} nats. Cross-lingual fusion (Tamil/Yoruba/Welsh/Code) achieves +21.76%, with Yoruba perplexity falling 41.9 to 7.7. A 20-contributor federation achieves +16.71% (+/-0.07pp, 3 seeds).Three requirements bound the protocol. Shared initialisation is necessary: checkpoint mismatch degrades routing. Frozen layers are optional below ~10,000 steps and beneficial beyond. Learned routing is essential: uniform averaging degrades by -1.2% vs. best specialist, while any trained router achieves oracle-optimal assignment.

Collecting high-quality training examples for language model fine-tuning is expensive, with practical budgets limiting the amount of data that can be procured. We investigate whether example difficulty affects GRPO training effectiveness by comparing selection strategies (easy, medium, hard, random) across multiple models and reasoning tasks. Training on the hardest 10\% of examples (those where the base model fails most often) yields dramatic performance gains up to 47\%, while easy examples produce minimal improvements of 3-15\%. This occurs because GRPO requires outcome variance to generate learning signals; hard examples maintain mixed success/failure outcomes throughout training while easy examples quickly converge to consistent success, eliminating learning opportunities. Moreover, models trained on hard examples show superior out-of-distribution generalization, with only hard-trained models achieving meaningful gains on the AIME2025 benchmark. Our findings provide clear guidance: when budget-constrained, prioritize collecting and annotating examples where your base model struggles, as these drive nearly all learning value in GRPO fine-tuning

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) offer greater flexibility in decoding order than autoregressive models but require careful planning to achieve high-quality generation. Existing samplers typically adopt greedy heuristics, prioritizing positions with the highest local certainty to decode at each step. Through failure case analysis, we identify a fundamental limitation of this approach: it neglects the downstream impact of current decoding choices on subsequent steps and fails to minimize cumulative uncertainty. In particular, these methods do not fully exploit the non-causal nature of MDMs, which enables evaluating how a decoding decision reshapes token probabilities/uncertainty across all remaining masked positions. To bridge this gap, we propose the Info-Gain Sampler, a principled decoding framework that balances immediate uncertainty with information gain over future masked tokens. Extensive evaluations across diverse architectures and tasks (reasoning, coding, creative writing, and image generation) demonstrate that Info-Gain Sampler consistently outperforms existing samplers for MDMs. For instance, it achieves a 3.6% improvement in average accuracy on reasoning tasks and a 63.1% win-rate in creative writing. Notably, on reasoning tasks it reduces cumulative uncertainty from 78.4 to 48.6, outperforming the best baseline by a large margin. The code will be available at https://github.com/yks23/Information-Gain-Sampler.

State-of-the-art AI systems can be significantly improved without expensive retraining via "post-training enhancements"-techniques applied after initial training like fine-tuning the system to use a web browser. We review recent post-training enhancements, categorizing them into five types: tool-use, prompting methods, scaffolding, solution selection, and data generation. Different enhancements improve performance on different tasks, making it hard to compare their significance. So we translate improvements from different enhancements into a common currency, the compute-equivalent gain: how much additional training compute would be needed to improve performance by the same amount as the enhancement. Our non-experimental work shows that post-training enhancements have significant benefits: most surveyed enhancements improve benchmark performance by more than a 5x increase in training compute, some by more than 20x. Post-training enhancements are relatively cheap to develop: fine-tuning costs are typically <1% of the original training cost. Governing the development of capable post-training enhancements may be challenging because frontier models could be enhanced by a wide range of actors.

Language model fine-tuning is essential for modern natural language processing, but is computationally expensive and time-consuming. Further, the effectiveness of fine-tuning is limited by the inclusion of training examples that negatively affect performance. Here we present a general fine-tuning method that we call information gain filtration for improving the overall training efficiency and final performance of language model fine-tuning. We define the information gain of an example as the improvement on a test metric after training on that example. A secondary learner is then trained to approximate this quantity. During fine-tuning, this learner selects informative examples and skips uninformative ones. We show that our method has consistent improvement across datasets, fine-tuning tasks, and language model architectures. For example, we achieve a median perplexity of 54.0 on a books dataset compared to 57.3 for standard fine-tuning. We present statistical evidence that offers insight into the improvements of our method over standard fine-tuning. The generality of our method leads us to propose a new paradigm for language model fine-tuning -- we encourage researchers to release pretrained secondary learners on common corpora to promote efficient and effective fine-tuning, thereby improving the performance and reducing the overall energy footprint of language model fine-tuning.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories demonstrations is a common approach for enabling reasoning in large language models. Standard practices typically only retain trajectories with correct final answers (positives) while ignoring the rest (negatives). We argue that this paradigm discards substantial supervision and exacerbates overfitting, limiting out-of-domain (OOD) generalization. Specifically, we surprisingly find that incorporating negative trajectories into SFT yields substantial OOD generalization gains over positive-only training, as these trajectories often retain valid intermediate reasoning despite incorrect final answers. To understand this effect in depth, we systematically analyze data, training dynamics, and inference behavior, identifying 22 recurring patterns in negative chains that serve a dual role: they moderate loss descent to mitigate overfitting during training and boost policy entropy by 35.67% during inference to facilitate exploration. Motivated by these observations, we further propose Gain-based LOss Weighting (GLOW), an adaptive, sample-aware scheme that exploits such distinctive training dynamics by rescaling per-sample loss based on inter-epoch progress. Empirically, GLOW efficiently leverages unfiltered trajectories, yielding a 5.51% OOD gain over positive-only SFT on Qwen2.5-7B and boosting MMLU from 72.82% to 76.47% as an RL initialization.

One of the most profound challenges of modern machine learning is performing well on the long-tail of rare and underrepresented features. Large general-purpose models are trained for many tasks, but work best on high-frequency use cases. After training, it is hard to adapt a model to perform well on specific use cases underrepresented in the training corpus. Relying on prompt engineering or few-shot examples to maximize the output quality on a particular test case can be frustrating, as models can be highly sensitive to small changes, react in unpredicted ways or rely on a fixed system prompt for maintaining performance. In this work, we ask: "Can we optimize our training protocols to both improve controllability and performance on underrepresented use cases at inference time?" We revisit the divide between training and inference techniques to improve long-tail performance while providing users with a set of control levers the model is trained to be responsive to. We create a detailed taxonomy of data characteristics and task provenance to explicitly control generation attributes and implicitly condition generations at inference time. We fine-tune a base model to infer these markers automatically, which makes them optional at inference time. This principled and flexible approach yields pronounced improvements in performance, especially on examples from the long tail of the training distribution. While we observe an average lift of 5.7% win rates in open-ended generation quality with our markers, we see over 9.1% gains in underrepresented domains. We also observe relative lifts of up to 14.1% on underrepresented tasks like CodeRepair and absolute improvements of 35.3% on length instruction following evaluations.

Regardless of the selected asset class and the level of model complexity (Transformer versus LSTM versus Perceptron/RNN), the GMADL loss function produces superior results than standard MSE-type loss functions and has better numerical properties in the context of optimization than MADL. Better results mean the possibility of achieving a higher risk-weighted return based on buy and sell signals built on forecasts generated by a given theoretical model estimated using the GMADL versus MSE or MADL function. In practice, GMADL solves the problem of selecting the most preferable feature in both classification and regression problems, improving the performance of each estimation. What is important is that, through additional parameterization, GMADL also solves the problem of optimizing investment systems on high-frequency data in such a way that they focus on strategy variants that contain fewer transactions so that transaction costs do not reduce the effectiveness of a given strategy to zero. Moreover, the implementation leverages state-of-the-art machine learning tools, including frameworks for hyperparameter tuning, architecture testing, and walk-forward optimization, ensuring robust and scalable solutions for real-world algorithmic trading.

Different from its counterpart outcome reward models (ORMs), which evaluate the entire responses, a process reward model (PRM) scores a reasoning trajectory step by step, providing denser and more fine grained rewards. However, training a PRM requires labels annotated at every intermediate step, presenting significant challenges for both manual and automatic data collection. This paper aims to address this challenge. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that an implicit PRM can be obtained at no additional cost, by simply training an ORM on the cheaper response-level labels. The only assumption is to parameterize the outcome reward as the log-likelihood ratios of the policy and reference models, which can be optimized regardless of the specific choice of loss objectives. In experiments, we instantiate our implicit PRMs with various objectives and evaluate their performance on MATH. We show that our implicit PRM outperforms a strong MCTS-based baseline \'a la Math-Shepherd using less than 1/38 of the training data. Its performance can be further improved with majority voting. We further find that scaling up instructions and responses benefits our implicit PRM, and the latter brings a larger gain. Particularly, we find that our implicit PRM, when instantiated with the cross-entropy (CE) loss, is more data-efficient and can keep improving generation models even when trained with only one response per instruction, the setup that suffers from extreme data scarcity and imbalance. Further, instructions should be relevant to downstream tasks while the diversity of responses does not bring gains. Surprisingly, training on extra Math-Shepherd step labels brings no further improvements to our implicit PRM trained on only outcome data. We hope that our work will encourage a rethinking of PRM training approaches and contribute to making training PRMs more accessible.

This study explores the relationship between textual features and Information Engagement (IE) on digital platforms. It highlights the impact of computational linguistics and analytics on user interaction. The READ model is introduced to quantify key predictors like representativeness, ease of use, affect, and distribution, which forecast engagement levels. The model's effectiveness is validated through AB testing and randomized trials, showing strong predictive performance in participation (accuracy: 0.94), perception (accuracy: 0.85), perseverance (accuracy: 0.81), and overall IE (accuracy: 0.97). While participation metrics are strong, perception and perseverance show slightly lower recall and F1-scores, indicating some challenges. The study demonstrates that modifying text based on the READ model's insights leads to significant improvements. For example, increasing representativeness and positive affect boosts selection rates by 11 percent, raises evaluation averages from 3.98 to 4.46, and improves retention rates by 11 percent. These findings highlight the importance of linguistic factors in IE, providing a framework for enhancing digital text engagement. The research offers practical strategies applicable to fields like education, health, and media.

Current Reinforcement Fine-tuning (RFT) paradigms for Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer from sample inefficiency due to the redundant exposure of identical queries under uniform data sampling. While previous work has explored curriculum learning via heuristic difficulty metrics, these strategies exhibit limitations by neglecting the intrinsic learning signals generated by the model itself, thus leading to suboptimal training regimes. In this paper, we identify a model-inherent signal termed angle concentration that effectively reflects an LLM's capacity to learn from specific data. We theoretically and empirically demonstrate a correlation between the angular distribution of token hidden state vectors and the resulting gradient, revealing a learning preference for data exhibiting higher angle concentration. Inspired by this finding, we propose GAIN-RL, a Gradient-driven Angle-Informed Navigated RL framework. By leveraging the model's intrinsic angle concentration signal, GAIN-RL dynamically selects training data in each epoch, ensuring consistently impactful gradient updates and thus significantly enhancing overall training efficiency. Empirical evaluations show that GAIN-RL (GRPO) achieves over a 2.5x acceleration in training efficiency across diverse mathematical and coding tasks and varying model scales. Furthermore, GAIN-RL (GRPO)'s efficient sampling yields data-efficient training, achieving better performance with half the original data compared to vanilla GRPO with full training data. Code is realsed at https://github.com/wangqinsi1/GAINRL/tree/main.

Personalized treatment effect estimates are often of interest in high-stakes applications -- thus, before deploying a model estimating such effects in practice, one needs to be sure that the best candidate from the ever-growing machine learning toolbox for this task was chosen. Unfortunately, due to the absence of counterfactual information in practice, it is usually not possible to rely on standard validation metrics for doing so, leading to a well-known model selection dilemma in the treatment effect estimation literature. While some solutions have recently been investigated, systematic understanding of the strengths and weaknesses of different model selection criteria is still lacking. In this paper, instead of attempting to declare a global `winner', we therefore empirically investigate success- and failure modes of different selection criteria. We highlight that there is a complex interplay between selection strategies, candidate estimators and the data used for comparing them, and provide interesting insights into the relative (dis)advantages of different criteria alongside desiderata for the design of further illuminating empirical studies in this context.

Uplift modeling, vital in online marketing, seeks to accurately measure the impact of various strategies, such as coupons or discounts, on different users by predicting the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE). In an e-commerce setting, user behavior follows a defined sequential chain, including impression, click, and conversion. Marketing strategies exert varied uplift effects at each stage within this chain, impacting metrics like click-through and conversion rate. Despite its utility, existing research has neglected to consider the inter-task across all stages impacts within a specific treatment and has insufficiently utilized the treatment information, potentially introducing substantial bias into subsequent marketing decisions. We identify these two issues as the chain-bias problem and the treatment-unadaptive problem. This paper introduces the Entire Chain UPlift method with context-enhanced learning (ECUP), devised to tackle these issues. ECUP consists of two primary components: 1) the Entire Chain-Enhanced Network, which utilizes user behavior patterns to estimate ITE throughout the entire chain space, models the various impacts of treatments on each task, and integrates task prior information to enhance context awareness across all stages, capturing the impact of treatment on different tasks, and 2) the Treatment-Enhanced Network, which facilitates fine-grained treatment modeling through bit-level feature interactions, thereby enabling adaptive feature adjustment. Extensive experiments on public and industrial datasets validate ECUPs effectiveness. Moreover, ECUP has been deployed on the Meituan food delivery platform, serving millions of daily active users, with the related dataset released for future research.

We build new test sets for the CIFAR-10 and ImageNet datasets. Both benchmarks have been the focus of intense research for almost a decade, raising the danger of overfitting to excessively re-used test sets. By closely following the original dataset creation processes, we test to what extent current classification models generalize to new data. We evaluate a broad range of models and find accuracy drops of 3% - 15% on CIFAR-10 and 11% - 14% on ImageNet. However, accuracy gains on the original test sets translate to larger gains on the new test sets. Our results suggest that the accuracy drops are not caused by adaptivity, but by the models' inability to generalize to slightly "harder" images than those found in the original test sets.

Analyzing outcomes in long-term cancer survivor studies can be complex. The effects of predictors on the failure process may be difficult to assess over longer periods of time, as the commonly used assumption of proportionality of hazards holding over an extended period is often questionable. In this manuscript, we compare seven different survival models that estimate the hazard rate and the effects of proportional and non-proportional covariates. In particular, we focus on an extension of the the multi-resolution hazard (MRH) estimator, combining a non-proportional hierarchical MRH approach with a data-driven pruning algorithm that allows for computational efficiency and produces robust estimates even in times of few observed failures. Using data from a large-scale randomized prostate cancer clinical trial, we examine patterns of biochemical failure and estimate the time-varying effects of androgen deprivation therapy treatment and other covariates. We compare the impact of different modeling strategies and smoothness assumptions on the estimated treatment effect. Our results show that the benefits of treatment diminish over time, possibly with implications for future treatment protocols.

Context: Motivation is known to improve performance. In software development in particular, there has been considerable interest in the motivation of contributors to open source. Objective: We identify 11 motivators from the literature (enjoying programming, ownership of code, learning, self use, etc.), and evaluate their relative effect on motivation. Since motivation is an internal subjective feeling, we also analyze the validity of the answers. Method: We conducted a survey with 66 questions on motivation which was completed by 521 developers. Most of the questions used an 11 point scale. We evaluated the validity of the answers validity by comparing related questions, comparing to actual behavior on GitHub, and comparison with the same developer in a follow up survey. Results: Validity problems include moderate correlations between answers to related questions, as well as self promotion and mistakes in the answers. Despite these problems, predictive analysis, investigating how diverse motivators influence the probability of high motivation, provided valuable insights. The correlations between the different motivators are low, implying their independence. High values in all 11 motivators predict increased probability of high motivation. In addition, improvement analysis shows that an increase in most motivators predicts an increase in general motivation.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used for tasks that require complex reasoning. Most benchmarks focus on final outcomes but overlook the intermediate reasoning steps - such as planning, revision, and decision making under resource constraints. We argue that measuring these internal processes is essential for understanding model behavior and improving reliability. We propose using strategic games as a natural evaluation environment: closed, rule-based systems with clear states, limited resources, and automatic feedback. We introduce a framework that evaluates LLMs along three core dimensions: planning, revision, and resource-constrained decision making. To operationalize this, we define metrics beyond win rate, including overcorrection risk rate, correction success rate, improvement slope, and over-budget ratio. In 4320 adversarial rounds across 12 leading models, ChatGPT-o3-mini achieves the top composite score, with a win rate of 74.7 percent, a correction success rate of 78.6 percent, and an improvement slope of 0.041. By contrast, Qwen-Plus, despite an overcorrection risk rate of 81.6 percent, wins only 25.6 percent of its matches - primarily due to excessive resource use. We also observe a negative correlation between overcorrection risk rate and correction success rate (Pearson r = -0.51, p = 0.093), suggesting that more frequent edits do not always improve outcomes. Our findings highlight the value of assessing not only what LLMs decide but how they arrive at those decisions

We develop an online learning algorithm that dramatically improves the data efficiency of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF). Our algorithm incrementally updates reward and language models as choice data is received. The reward model is fit to the choice data, while the language model is updated by a variation of reinforce, with reinforcement signals provided by the reward model. Several features enable the efficiency gains: a small affirmative nudge added to each reinforcement signal, an epistemic neural network that models reward uncertainty, and information-directed exploration. With Gemma large language models (LLMs), our algorithm matches the performance of offline RLHF trained on 200K labels using fewer than 20K labels, representing more than a 10x gain in data efficiency. Extrapolating from our results, we expect our algorithm trained on 1M labels to match offline RLHF trained on 1B labels. This represents a 1,000x gain. To our knowledge, these are the first results to demonstrate that such large improvements are possible.

In economy, markets are denoted as efficient when it is impossible to systematically generate profits which outperform the average. In the past years, the concept has been tested in other domains such as the growing sports betting market. Surprisingly, despite its large size and its level of maturity, sports betting shows traits of inefficiency. The anomalies indicate the existence of strategies which shift betting from a game of chance towards a game of skill. This article shows an example for an inefficiency detected in the German soccer betting TOTO 13er Wette, which is operated by state-run lottery agencies. Gamblers have to guess the outcome (win, draw, loss) of 13 soccer matches listed on a lottery tip. Applying stochastic methods, a recipe is presented to determine hit rates for single match outcomes. More important, the recipe provides the number of lottery tips required to achieve a specific number of strikes (number of correct match forecasts per lottery tip) for any given level of safety. An approximation is derived to cope with large numbers in hypergeometric distributions, valid under certain constraints. Overall, the strategy does lead to returns exceeding the aggregated lottery fees, resulting in moderate, but consistent profits. It is briefly discussed if lessions learned from soccer betting can be transferred back to financial markets, because gamblers and retail investors face similar challenges and opportunities.

Scaling pre-training compute has proven effective for achieving mulitlinguality, but does the same hold for test-time scaling? In this work, we introduce MCLM, a multilingual math benchmark featuring competition-level problems in 55 languages. We test three test-time scaling methods-Outcome Reward Modeling (ORM), Process Reward Modeling (ORM), and Budget Forcing (BF)-on both Qwen2.5-1.5B Math and MR1-1.5B, a multilingual LLM we trained for extended reasoning. Our experiments show that using Qwen2.5-1.5B Math with ORM achieves a score of 35.8 on MCLM, while BF on MR1-1.5B attains 35.2. Although "thinking LLMs" have recently garnered significant attention, we find that their performance is comparable to traditional scaling methods like best-of-N once constrained to similar levels of inference FLOPs. Moreover, while BF yields a 20-point improvement on English AIME, it provides only a 1.94-point average gain across other languages-a pattern consistent across the other test-time scaling methods we studied-higlighting that test-time scaling may not generalize as effectively to multilingual tasks. To foster further research, we release MCLM, MR1-1.5B, and evaluation results.