Daily Papers

In this paper we present the initial design of Minerva consensus protocol for Truechain and other technical details. Currently, it is widely believed in the blockchain community that a public chain cannot simultaneously achieve high performance, decentralization and security. This is true in the case of a Nakamoto chain (low performance) or a delegated proof of stake chain (partially centralized), which are the most popular block chain solutions at time of writing. Our consensus design enjoys the same consistency, liveness, transaction finality and security guarantee, a de-facto with the Hybrid Consensus. We go on to propose the idea of a new virtual machine on top of Ethereum which adds permissioned-chain based transaction processing capabilities in a permissionless setting. We also use the idea of data sharding and speculative transactions, and evaluation of smart contracts in a sharding friendly virtual machine. Finally, we will briefly discuss our fundamentally ASIC resistant mining algorithm, Truehash.

Speculative decoding is a prominent technique to speed up the inference of a large target language model based on predictions of an auxiliary draft model. While effective, in application-specific settings, it often involves fine-tuning both draft and target models to achieve high acceptance rates. As the number of downstream tasks grows, these draft models add significant complexity to inference systems. We propose Speculative Streaming, a single-model speculative decoding method that fuses drafting into the target model by changing the fine-tuning objective from next token prediction to future n-gram prediction. Speculative Streaming speeds up decoding by 1.8 - 3.1X in a diverse set of tasks, such as Summarization, Structured Queries, and Meaning Representation, without sacrificing generation quality. Additionally, Speculative Streaming is parameter-efficient. It achieves on-par/higher speed-ups than Medusa-style architectures while using ~10000X fewer extra parameters, making it well-suited for resource-constrained devices.

Autoregressive decoding is bottlenecked by its sequential nature. Speculative decoding has become a standard way to accelerate inference by using a fast draft model to predict upcoming tokens from a slower target model, and then verifying them in parallel with a single target model forward pass. However, speculative decoding itself relies on a sequential dependence between speculation and verification. We introduce speculative speculative decoding (SSD) to parallelize these operations. While a verification is ongoing, the draft model predicts likely verification outcomes and prepares speculations pre-emptively for them. If the actual verification outcome is then in the predicted set, a speculation can be returned immediately, eliminating drafting overhead entirely. We identify three key challenges presented by speculative speculative decoding, and suggest principled methods to solve each. The result is Saguaro, an optimized SSD algorithm. Our implementation is up to 2x faster than optimized speculative decoding baselines and up to 5x faster than autoregressive decoding with open source inference engines.

Speculative decoding is a technique that uses multiple language models to accelerate infer- ence. Previous works have used an experi- mental approach to optimize the throughput of the inference pipeline, which involves LLM training and can be costly. This study of spec- ulative decoding proposes a theory that ana- lytically connects the key hyperparameters of pre-trained LLMs to the throughput efficiency of a downstream SD-based inference system. The theory allows the prediction of throughput- optimal hyperparameters for the components of an inference system before their pre-training.

Speculative decoding is a promising method for reducing the inference latency of large language models. The effectiveness of the method depends on the speculation length (SL) - the number of tokens generated by the draft model at each iteration. The vast majority of speculative decoding approaches use the same SL for all iterations. In this work, we show that this practice is suboptimal. We introduce DISCO, a DynamIc SpeCulation length Optimization method that uses a classifier to dynamically adjust the SL at each iteration, while provably preserving the decoding quality. Experiments with four benchmarks demonstrate average speedup gains of 10.3% relative to our best baselines.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become more prevalent in long-context applications such as interactive chatbots, document analysis, and agent workflows, but it is challenging to serve long-context requests with low latency and high throughput. Speculative decoding (SD) is a widely used technique to reduce latency without sacrificing performance but the conventional wisdom suggests that its efficacy is limited to small batch sizes. In MagicDec, we show that surprisingly SD can achieve speedup even for a high throughput inference regime for moderate to long sequences. More interestingly, an intelligent drafting strategy can achieve better speedup with increasing batch size based on our rigorous analysis. MagicDec first identifies the bottleneck shifts with increasing batch size and sequence length, and uses these insights to deploy speculative decoding more effectively for high throughput inference. Then, it leverages draft models with sparse KV cache to address the KV bottleneck that scales with both sequence length and batch size.

Speculative decoding (SD) has emerged as a promising technique to accelerate LLM inference by employing a small draft model to propose draft tokens in advance, and validating them in parallel with the large target model. However, the existing SD methods still remain constrained by their serialized execution, which causes the mutual waiting bubbles between the draft and target models. To address this challenge, we draw inspiration from branch prediction in modern processors and propose a novel framework SpecBranch to unlock branch parallelism in SD. Specifically, we first take an in-depth analysis of the potential of branch parallelism in SD, and recognize that the key challenge lies in the trade-offs between parallelization and token rollback. Based on the analysis, we introduce parallel speculative branches to preemptively hedge against likely rejections. Meanwhile, to enhance parallelism, we jointly orchestrate adaptive draft lengths with a hybrid combination of the implicit draft model confidence and explicit reusing of target model features. Extensive experiments across various models and benchmarks show that SpecBranch achieves over 1.8times sim 4.5times speedups against the auto-regressive decoding and reduces rollback tokens by 50\% for poorly aligned models, while maintaining an identical sampling distribution.

Modern Large Language Models achieve impressive reasoning capabilities with long Chain of Thoughts, but they incur substantial computational cost during inference, and this motivates techniques to improve the performance-cost ratio. Among these techniques, Speculative Decoding accelerates inference by employing a fast but inaccurate draft model to autoregressively propose tokens, which are then verified in parallel by a more capable target model. However, due to unnecessary rejections caused by token mismatches in semantically equivalent steps, traditional token-level Speculative Decoding struggles in reasoning tasks. Although recent works have shifted to step-level semantic verification, which improve efficiency by accepting or rejecting entire reasoning steps, existing step-level methods still regenerate many rejected steps with little improvement, wasting valuable target compute. To address this challenge, we propose Arbitrage, a novel step-level speculative generation framework that routes generation dynamically based on the relative advantage between draft and target models. Instead of applying a fixed acceptance threshold, Arbitrage uses a lightweight router trained to predict when the target model is likely to produce a meaningfully better step. This routing approximates an ideal Arbitrage Oracle that always chooses the higher-quality step, achieving near-optimal efficiency-accuracy trade-offs. Across multiple mathematical reasoning benchmarks, Arbitrage consistently surpasses prior step-level Speculative Decoding baselines, reducing inference latency by up to sim2times at matched accuracy.

Speculative decoding is a pivotal technique to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) by employing a smaller draft model to predict the target model's outputs. However, its efficacy can be limited due to the low predictive accuracy of the draft model, particularly when faced with diverse text inputs and a significant capability gap between the draft and target models. We introduce online speculative decoding (OSD) to address this challenge. The main idea is to continually update (multiple) draft model(s) on observed user query data using the abundant excess computational power in an LLM serving cluster. Given that LLM inference is memory-bounded, the surplus computational power in a typical LLM serving cluster can be repurposed for online retraining of draft models, thereby making the training cost-neutral. Since the query distribution of an LLM service is relatively simple, retraining on query distribution enables the draft model to more accurately predict the target model's outputs, particularly on data originating from query distributions. As the draft model evolves online, it aligns with the query distribution in real time, mitigating distribution shifts. We develop a prototype of online speculative decoding based on online knowledge distillation and evaluate it using both synthetic and real query data on several popular LLMs. The results show a substantial increase in the token acceptance rate by 0.1 to 0.65, which translates into 1.22x to 3.06x latency reduction.

Prediction markets are designed to aggregate dispersed information about future events, yet today's ecosystem is fragmented across heterogeneous operator-run platforms and blockchain-based protocols that independently list economically identical events. In the absence of a shared notion of event identity, liquidity fails to pool across venues, arbitrage becomes capital-intensive or unenforceable, and prices systematically violate the Law of One Price. As a result, market prices reflect platform-local beliefs rather than a single, globally aggregated probability, undermining the core information-aggregation function of prediction markets. We address this gap by introducing a semantic alignment framework that makes cross-platform event identity explicit through joint analysis of natural-language descriptions, resolution semantics, and temporal scope. Applying this framework, we construct the first human-validated, cross-platform dataset of aligned prediction markets, covering over 100 000 events across ten major venues from 2018 to 2025. Using this dataset, we show that roughly 6% of all events are concurrently listed across platforms and that semantically equivalent markets exhibit persistent execution-aware price deviations of 2-4% on average, even in highly liquid and information-rich settings. These mispricings give rise to persistent cross-platform arbitrage opportunities driven by structural frictions rather than informational disagreement. Overall, our results demonstrate that semantic non-fungibility is a fundamental barrier to price convergence, and that resolving event identity is a prerequisite for prediction markets to aggregate information at a global scale.

Speculative decoding is a technique to leverage hardware concurrency to improve the efficiency of large-scale autoregressive (AR) Transformer models by enabling multiple steps of token generation in a single forward pass. State-space models (SSMs) are already more efficient than AR Transformers, since their state summarizes all past data with no need to cache or re-process tokens in the sliding window context. However, their state can also comprise thousands of tokens; so, speculative decoding has recently been extended to SSMs. Existing approaches, however, do not leverage the tree-based verification methods, since current SSMs lack the means to compute a token tree efficiently. We propose the first scalable algorithm to perform tree-based speculative decoding in state-space models (SSMs) and hybrid architectures of SSMs and Transformer layers. We exploit the structure of accumulated state transition matrices to facilitate tree-based speculative decoding with minimal overhead to current SSM state update implementations. With the algorithm, we describe a hardware-aware implementation that improves naive application of AR Transformer tree-based speculative decoding methods to SSMs. Furthermore, we outperform vanilla speculative decoding with SSMs even with a baseline drafting model and tree structure on three different benchmarks, opening up opportunities for further speed up with SSM and hybrid model inference. Code will be released upon paper acceptance.

Speculative decoding (SD) has attracted a significant amount of research attention due to the substantial speedup it can achieve for LLM inference. However, despite the high speedups they offer, speculative decoding methods often achieve optimal performance on high-end devices or with a substantial GPU memory overhead. Given limited memory and the necessity of quantization, a high-performing model on a high-end GPU can slow down by up to 7 times. To this end, we propose Skippy Simultaneous Speculative Decoding (or S3D), a cost-effective self-speculative SD method based on simultaneous multi-token decoding and mid-layer skipping. When compared against recent effective open-source SD systems, our method has achieved one of the top performance-memory ratios while requiring minimal architecture changes and training data. Leveraging our memory efficiency, we created a smaller yet more effective SD model based on Phi-3. It is 1.4 to 2 times faster than the quantized EAGLE model and operates in half-precision while using less VRAM.

As Decentralized Finance (DeFi) develops, understanding user intent behind DeFi transactions is crucial yet challenging due to complex smart contract interactions, multifaceted on-/off-chain factors, and opaque hex logs. Existing methods lack deep semantic insight. To address this, we propose the Transaction Intent Mining (TIM) framework. TIM leverages a DeFi intent taxonomy built on grounded theory and a multi-agent Large Language Model (LLM) system to robustly infer user intents. A Meta-Level Planner dynamically coordinates domain experts to decompose multiple perspective-specific intent analyses into solvable subtasks. Question Solvers handle the tasks with multi-modal on/off-chain data. While a Cognitive Evaluator mitigates LLM hallucinations and ensures verifiability. Experiments show that TIM significantly outperforms machine learning models, single LLMs, and single Agent baselines. We also analyze core challenges in intent inference. This work helps provide a more reliable understanding of user motivations in DeFi, offering context-aware explanations for complex blockchain activity.

Speculative inference is a promising paradigm employing small speculative models (SSMs) as drafters to generate draft tokens, which are subsequently verified in parallel by the target large language model (LLM). This approach enhances the efficiency of inference serving by reducing LLM inference latency and costs while preserving generation quality. However, existing speculative methods face critical challenges, including inefficient resource utilization and limited draft acceptance, which constrain their scalability and overall effectiveness. To overcome these obstacles, we present CoSine, a novel speculative inference system that decouples sequential speculative decoding from parallel verification, enabling efficient collaboration among multiple nodes. Specifically, CoSine routes inference requests to specialized drafters based on their expertise and incorporates a confidence-based token fusion mechanism to synthesize outputs from cooperating drafters, ensuring high-quality draft generation. Additionally, CoSine dynamically orchestrates the execution of speculative decoding and verification in a pipelined manner, employing batch scheduling to selectively group requests and adaptive speculation control to minimize idle periods. By optimizing parallel workflows through heterogeneous node collaboration, CoSine balances draft generation and verification throughput in real-time, thereby maximizing resource utilization. Experimental results demonstrate that CoSine achieves superior performance compared to state-of-the-art speculative approaches. Notably, with equivalent resource costs, CoSine achieves up to a 23.2% decrease in latency and a 32.5% increase in throughput compared to baseline methods.

The rapid growth in the parameters of large language models (LLMs) has made inference latency a fundamental bottleneck, limiting broader application of LLMs. Speculative decoding represents a lossless approach to accelerate inference through a guess-and-verify paradigm, leveraging the parallel capabilities of modern hardware. Some speculative decoding methods rely on additional structures to guess draft tokens, such as small models or parameter-efficient architectures, which need extra training before use. Alternatively, retrieval-based train-free techniques build libraries from pre-existing corpora or by n-gram generation. However, they face challenges like large storage requirements, time-consuming retrieval, and limited adaptability. Observing that candidate tokens generated during the decoding process are likely to reoccur in future sequences, we propose Token Recycling. This approach stores candidate tokens in an adjacency matrix and employs a breadth-first search (BFS)-like algorithm on the matrix to construct a draft tree. The tree is then validated through tree attention. New candidate tokens from the decoding process are then used to update the matrix. Token Recycling requires \textless2MB of additional storage and achieves approximately 2x speedup across all sizes of LLMs. It significantly outperforms existing train-free methods by 30\% and even a training method by 25\%. It can be directly applied to any existing LLMs and tasks without the need for adaptation.

Bitcoin, with its ever-growing popularity, has demonstrated extreme price volatility since its origin. This volatility, together with its decentralised nature, make Bitcoin highly subjective to speculative trading as compared to more traditional assets. In this paper, we propose a multimodal model for predicting extreme price fluctuations. This model takes as input a variety of correlated assets, technical indicators, as well as Twitter content. In an in-depth study, we explore whether social media discussions from the general public on Bitcoin have predictive power for extreme price movements. A dataset of 5,000 tweets per day containing the keyword `Bitcoin' was collected from 2015 to 2021. This dataset, called PreBit, is made available online. In our hybrid model, we use sentence-level FinBERT embeddings, pretrained on financial lexicons, so as to capture the full contents of the tweets and feed it to the model in an understandable way. By combining these embeddings with a Convolutional Neural Network, we built a predictive model for significant market movements. The final multimodal ensemble model includes this NLP model together with a model based on candlestick data, technical indicators and correlated asset prices. In an ablation study, we explore the contribution of the individual modalities. Finally, we propose and backtest a trading strategy based on the predictions of our models with varying prediction threshold and show that it can used to build a profitable trading strategy with a reduced risk over a `hold' or moving average strategy.

Speculative Decoding (SD) enforces strict distributional equivalence to the target model when accepting candidate tokens. While it maintains the target model's generation quality, this strict equivalence limits the speedup achievable by SD and prevents users from trading deviations from the target distribution in exchange for further inference speed gains. To address these limitations, we introduce Fuzzy Speculative Decoding (FSD) - a decoding algorithm that generalizes SD by accepting candidate tokens based on the divergences between the target and draft model distributions. By allowing for controlled divergence from the target model, FSD enables users to flexibly trade generation quality for inference speed. Across several benchmarks, our method is able to achieve significant runtime improvements of over 5 tokens per second faster than SD at only an approximate 2% absolute reduction in benchmark accuracy. In many cases, FSD is even able to match SD benchmark accuracy at over 2 tokens per second faster, demonstrating that distributional equivalence is not necessary to maintain target model performance. Furthermore, FSD can be seamlessly integrated into existing SD extensions; we demonstrate this by applying FSD to EAGLE-2, greatly enhancing this existing extension's efficiency while allowing it to leverage FSD's tunable quality-speed trade-off.

Speculative decoding is an inference-acceleration method for large language models (LLMs) where a small language model generates a draft-token sequence which is further verified by the target LLM in parallel. Recent works have advanced this method by establishing a draft-token tree, achieving superior performance over a single-sequence speculative decoding. However, those works independently generate tokens at each level of the tree, not leveraging the tree's entire diversifiability. Besides, their empirical superiority has been shown for fixed length of sequences, implicitly granting more computational resource to LLM for the tree-based methods. None of the existing works has conducted empirical studies with fixed target computational budgets despite its importance to resource-bounded devices. We present Recursive Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel tree-based method that samples draft tokens without replacement and maximizes the diversity of the tree. During RSD's drafting, the tree is built by either Gumbel-Top-k trick that draws tokens without replacement in parallel or Stochastic Beam Search that samples sequences without replacement while early-truncating unlikely draft sequences and reducing the computational cost of LLM. We empirically evaluate RSD with Llama 2 and OPT models, showing that RSD outperforms the baseline methods, consistently for fixed draft sequence length and in most cases for fixed computational budgets at LLM.

Recent advancements in speculative decoding have demonstrated considerable speedup across a wide array of large language model (LLM) tasks. Speculative decoding inherently relies on sacrificing extra memory allocations to generate several candidate tokens, of which acceptance rate drives the speedup. However, deploying speculative decoding on memory-constrained devices, such as mobile GPUs, remains as a significant challenge in real-world scenarios. In this work, we present a device-aware inference engine named SpecMemo that can smartly control memory allocations at finer levels to enable multi-turn chatbots with speculative decoding on such limited memory devices. Our methodology stems from theoretically modeling memory footprint of speculative decoding to determine a lower bound on the required memory budget while retaining speedup. SpecMemo empirically acquires a careful balance between minimizing redundant memory allocations for rejected candidate tokens and maintaining competitive performance gains from speculation. Notably, with SpecMemo's memory management, we maintain 96% of overall throughput from speculative decoding on MT-Bench, with reduced generation-memory by 65% on single Nvidia Titan RTX. Given multiple constrained GPUs, we build on top of previous speculative decoding architectures to facilitate big-model inference by distributing Llama-2-70B-Chat model, on which we provide novel batched speculative decoding to increase usability of multiple small server GPUs. This novel framework demonstrates 2x speedup over distributed and batched vanilla decoding with the base model on eight AMD MI250 GPUs. Moreover, inference throughput increases remarkably 8x with batch size 10. Our work contributes to democratized LLM applications in resource-constrained environments, providing a pathway for faster and cheaper deployment of real-world LLM applications with robust performance.

Speculative decoding (SD) is a promising method for accelerating the decoding process of Large Language Models (LLMs). The efficiency of SD primarily hinges on the consistency between the draft model and the verify model. However, existing drafting approaches typically require additional modules to be trained, which can be challenging to implement and ensure compatibility across various LLMs. In this paper, we propose CLaSp, an in-context layer-skipping strategy for self-speculative decoding. Unlike prior methods, CLaSp does not require additional drafting modules or extra training. Instead, it employs a plug-and-play mechanism by skipping intermediate layers of the verify model to construct a compressed draft model. Specifically, we develop a dynamic programming algorithm that optimizes the layer-skipping process by leveraging the complete hidden states from the last verification stage as an objective. This enables CLaSp to dynamically adjust its layer-skipping strategy after each verification stage, without relying on pre-optimized sets of skipped layers. Experimental results across diverse downstream tasks demonstrate that CLaSp achieves a speedup of 1.3x ~ 1.7x on LLaMA3 series models without altering the original distribution of the generated text.

Speculative decoding is an effective method for accelerating inference of large language models (LLMs) by employing a small draft model to predict the output of a target model. However, when adapting speculative decoding to domain-specific target models, the acceptance rate of the generic draft model drops significantly due to domain shift. In this work, we systematically investigate knowledge distillation techniques for training domain draft models to improve their speculation accuracy. We compare white-box and black-box distillation approaches and explore their effectiveness in various data accessibility scenarios, including historical user queries, curated domain data, and synthetically generated alignment data. Our experiments across Function Calling, Biology, and Chinese domains show that offline distillation consistently outperforms online distillation by 11% to 25%, white-box distillation surpasses black-box distillation by 2% to 10%, and data scaling trends hold across domains. Additionally, we find that synthetic data can effectively align draft models and achieve 80% to 93% of the performance of training on historical user queries. These findings provide practical guidelines for training domain-specific draft models to improve speculative decoding efficiency.

Growing demands from tasks like code generation, deep reasoning, and long-document understanding have made long-context generation a crucial capability for large language models (LLMs). Speculative decoding is one of the most direct and effective approaches for accelerating generation. It follows a draft-verify paradigm, where a lightweight draft model proposes several candidate tokens and the target model verifies them. However, we find that as the context length grows, verification becomes the dominant bottleneck. To further accelerate speculative decoding in long-context generation, we introduce SpecPV, a self-speculative decoding approach that performs fast verification using partial key-value states (KV) and periodically applies full verification to eliminate accumulated errors. We validate SpecPV across multiple long-context benchmarks and models, including LLaMA-3.1-8B-Instruct and Qwen3-series. Experimental results show that SpecPV achieves up to 6x decoding speedup over standard autoregressive decoding with minor degradation.

Speculative decoding (SD) is a powerful technique for accelerating the inference process of large language models (LLMs) without sacrificing accuracy. Typically, SD employs a small draft model to generate a fixed number of draft tokens, which are then verified in parallel by the target model. However, our experiments reveal that the optimal draft length varies significantly across different decoding steps. This variation suggests that using a fixed draft length limits the potential for further improvements in decoding speed. To address this challenge, we propose Pacer, a novel approach that dynamically controls draft length using a lightweight, trainable pre-verification layer. This layer pre-verifies draft tokens blockwise before they are sent to the target model, allowing the draft model to stop token generation if the blockwise pre-verification fails. We implement Pacer on multiple SD model pairs and evaluate its performance across various benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that Pacer achieves up to 2.66x Speedup over autoregressive decoding and consistently outperforms standard speculative decoding. Furthermore, when integrated with Ouroboros, Pacer attains up to 3.09x Speedup.

Speculative decoding has emerged as a widely adopted method to accelerate large language model inference without sacrificing the quality of the model outputs. While this technique has facilitated notable speed improvements by enabling parallel sequence verification, its efficiency remains inherently limited by the reliance on incremental token generation in existing draft models. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes an adaptation of speculative decoding which uses discrete diffusion models to generate draft sequences. This allows parallelization of both the drafting and verification steps, providing significant speed-ups to the inference process. Our proposed approach, Speculative Diffusion Decoding (SpecDiff), is validated on standard language generation benchmarks and empirically demonstrated to provide a up to 8.7x speed-up over standard generation processes and up to 2.5x speed-up over existing speculative decoding approaches.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a technique to accelerate the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using a lower complexity draft model to propose candidate tokens verified by a larger target model. To further improve efficiency, Multi-Candidate Speculative Decoding (MCSD) improves upon this by sampling multiple candidate tokens from the draft model at each step and verifying them in parallel, thus increasing the chances of accepting a token and reducing generation time. Existing MCSD methods rely on the draft model to initialize the multi-candidate sequences and use static length and tree attention structure for draft generation. However, such an approach suffers from the draft and target model's output distribution differences, especially in dynamic generation context. In this work, we introduce an improved version of MCSD that includes a target model initialized multi-candidate process, dynamic sliced topology-aware causal mask for dynamic length adjustment, and decision models to optimize early stopping. Our framework improves the acceptance rate, defined as the ratio of the longest draft sequence length accepted by the target model over the maximum draft sequence length, by a maximum of 164% and gains a maximum of 75% generation speed up over the MCSD baseline. We also conduct an ablation study to evaluate the impact of the decision model.

We present speculative sampling, an algorithm for accelerating transformer decoding by enabling the generation of multiple tokens from each transformer call. Our algorithm relies on the observation that the latency of parallel scoring of short continuations, generated by a faster but less powerful draft model, is comparable to that of sampling a single token from the larger target model. This is combined with a novel modified rejection sampling scheme which preserves the distribution of the target model within hardware numerics. We benchmark speculative sampling with Chinchilla, a 70 billion parameter language model, achieving a 2-2.5x decoding speedup in a distributed setup, without compromising the sample quality or making modifications to the model itself.

The growing demand for efficient long-sequence modeling on edge devices has propelled widespread adoption of State Space Models (SSMs) like Mamba, due to their superior computational efficiency and scalability. As its autoregressive generation process remains memory-bound, speculative decoding has been proposed that incorporates draft model generation and target model verification. However, directly applying speculative decoding to SSMs faces three key challenges: (1) hidden state backtracking difficulties, (2) tree-based parallel verification incompatibility, and (3) hardware workload mismatch. To address these challenges, we propose SpecMamba, the first FPGA-based accelerator for Mamba with speculative decoding, which features system, algorithm, and hardware co-design. At the system level, we present a memory-aware hybrid backtracking strategy to coordinate both models. At the algorithm level, we propose first-in-first-out (FIFO)-based tree verification with tiling to minimize memory access. At the hardware level, we customize a dataflow that computes linear layers in parallel and SSM layers in series to enable maximal overlapping. Implemented on AMD FPGA platforms (VHK158 and VCK190), SpecMamba achieves a 2.27x speedup over GPU baselines and a 2.85x improvement compared to prior FPGA solutions, while demonstrating 5.41x and 1.26x higher energy efficiency, respectively.

Speculative decoding is a relatively new decoding framework that leverages small and efficient draft models to reduce the latency of LLMs. In this study, we introduce GliDe and CaPE, two low-hassle modifications to vanilla speculative decoding to further improve the decoding speed of a frozen LLM. Specifically, GliDe is a modified draft model architecture that reuses the cached keys and values from the target LLM, while CaPE is a proposal expansion method that uses the draft model's confidence scores to help select additional candidate tokens for verification. Extensive experiments on different benchmarks demonstrate that our proposed GliDe draft model significantly reduces the expected decoding latency. Additional evaluation using walltime reveals that GliDe can accelerate Vicuna models up to 2.17x and further extend the improvement to 2.61x with CaPE. We will release our code, data, and the trained draft models.

Perpetual futures are the most popular cryptocurrency derivatives. Perpetuals offer leveraged exposure to their underlying without rollover or direct ownership. Unlike fixed-maturity futures, perpetuals are not guaranteed to converge to the spot price. To minimize the gap between perpetual and spot prices, long investors periodically pay shorts a funding rate proportional to this difference. We derive no-arbitrage prices for perpetual futures in frictionless markets and bounds in markets with trading costs. Empirically, deviations from these prices in crypto are larger than in traditional currency markets, comove across currencies, and diminish over time. An implied arbitrage strategy yields high Sharpe ratios.

Prediction markets allow users to trade on outcomes of real-world events, but are prone to fragmentation through overlapping questions, implicit equivalences, and hidden contradictions across markets. We present an agentic AI pipeline that autonomously (i) clusters markets into coherent topical groups using natural-language understanding over contract text and metadata, and (ii) identifies within-cluster market pairs whose resolved outcomes exhibit strong dependence, including same-outcome (correlated) and different-outcome (anti-correlated) relationships. Using a historical dataset of resolved markets on Polymarket, we evaluate the accuracy of the agent's relational predictions. We then translate discovered relationships into a simple trading strategy to quantify how these relationships map to actionable signals. Results show that agent-identified relationships achieve roughly 60-70% accuracy, and their induced trading strategies earn about 20% average returns over week-long horizons, highlighting the ability of agentic AI and large language models to uncover latent semantic structure in prediction markets.

Deployment of autoregressive large language models (LLMs) is costly, and as these models increase in size, the associated costs will become even more considerable. Consequently, different methods have been proposed to accelerate the token generation process and reduce costs. Speculative decoding (SD) is among the most promising approaches to speed up the LLM decoding process by verifying multiple tokens in parallel and using an auxiliary smaller draft model to generate the possible tokens. In SD, usually, one draft model is used to serve a specific target model; however, in practice, LLMs are diverse, and we might need to deal with many target models or more than one target model simultaneously. In this scenario, it is not clear which draft model should be used for which target model, and searching among different draft models or training customized draft models can further increase deployment costs. In this paper, we first introduce a novel multi-target scenario for the deployment of draft models for faster inference. Then, we present a novel, more efficient sorted speculative decoding mechanism that outperforms regular baselines in multi-target settings. We evaluated our method on Spec-Bench in different settings, including base models such as Vicuna 7B, 13B, and LLama Chat 70B. Our results suggest that our draft models perform better than baselines for multiple target models at the same time.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated impressive capabilities in financial reasoning and market understanding. Multi-agent LLM frameworks such as TradingAgent and FINMEM augment these models to long-horizon investment tasks, leveraging fundamental and sentiment-based inputs for strategic decision-making. However, such systems are ill-suited for the high-speed, precision-critical demands of High-Frequency Trading (HFT). HFT requires rapid, risk-aware decisions based on structured, short-horizon signals, including technical indicators, chart patterns, and trend-based features, distinct from the long-term semantic reasoning typical of traditional financial LLM applications. To this end, we introduce QuantAgent, the first multi-agent LLM framework explicitly designed for high-frequency algorithmic trading. The system decomposes trading into four specialized agents, Indicator, Pattern, Trend, and Risk, each equipped with domain-specific tools and structured reasoning capabilities to capture distinct aspects of market dynamics over short temporal windows. In zero-shot evaluations across ten financial instruments, including Bitcoin and Nasdaq futures, QuantAgent demonstrates superior performance in both predictive accuracy and cumulative return over 4-hour trading intervals, outperforming strong neural and rule-based baselines. Our findings suggest that combining structured financial priors with language-native reasoning unlocks new potential for traceable, real-time decision systems in high-frequency financial markets.

Reducing the inference latency of large language models (LLMs) is crucial, and speculative decoding (SD) stands out as one of the most effective techniques. Rather than letting the LLM generate all tokens directly, speculative decoding employs effective proxies to predict potential outputs, which are then verified by the LLM without compromising the generation quality. Yet, deploying SD in real online LLM serving systems (with continuous batching) does not always yield improvement -- under higher request rates or low speculation accuracy, it paradoxically increases latency. Furthermore, there is no best speculation length work for all workloads under different system loads. Based on the observations, we develop a dynamic framework SmartSpec. SmartSpec dynamically determines the best speculation length for each request (from 0, i.e., no speculation, to many tokens) -- hence the associated speculative execution costs -- based on a new metric called goodput, which characterizes the current observed load of the entire system and the speculation accuracy. We show that SmartSpec consistently reduces average request latency by up to 3.2x compared to non-speculative decoding baselines across different sizes of target models, draft models, request rates, and datasets. Moreover, SmartSpec can be applied to different styles of speculative decoding, including traditional, model-based approaches as well as model-free methods like prompt lookup and tree-style decoding.

Transaction data from digital payment systems can be used to study economic processes at such a detail that was not possible previously. Here, we analyse the data from Sarafu token network, a community inclusion currency in Kenya. During the COVID-19 emergency, the Sarafu was disbursed as part of a humanitarian aid project. In this work, the transactions are analysed using network science. A topological categorisation is defined to identify cyclic and acyclic components. Furthermore, temporal aspects of circulation taking place within these components are considered. The significant presence of different types of strongly connected components as compared to randomized null models shows the importance of cycles in this economic network. Especially, indicating their key role in currency recirculation. In some acyclic components, the most significant triad suggests the presence of a group of users collecting currency from accounts active only once, hinting at a misuse of the system. In some other acyclic components, small isolated groups of users were active only once, suggesting the presence of users only interested in trying out the system. The methods used in this paper can answer specific questions related to user activities, currency design, and assessment of monetary interventions. Our methodology provides a general quantitative tool for analysing the behaviour of users in a currency network.

We present TransactionGPT (TGPT), a foundation model for consumer transaction data within one of world's largest payment networks. TGPT is designed to understand and generate transaction trajectories while simultaneously supporting a variety of downstream prediction and classification tasks. We introduce a novel 3D-Transformer architecture specifically tailored for capturing the complex dynamics in payment transaction data. This architecture incorporates design innovations that enhance modality fusion and computational efficiency, while seamlessly enabling joint optimization with downstream objectives. Trained on billion-scale real-world transactions, TGPT significantly improves downstream classification performance against a competitive production model and exhibits advantages over baselines in generating future transactions. We conduct extensive empirical evaluations utilizing a diverse collection of company transaction datasets spanning multiple downstream tasks, thereby enabling a thorough assessment of TGPT's effectiveness and efficiency in comparison to established methodologies. Furthermore, we examine the incorporation of LLM-derived embeddings within TGPT and benchmark its performance against fine-tuned LLMs, demonstrating that TGPT achieves superior predictive accuracy as well as faster training and inference. We anticipate that the architectural innovations and practical guidelines from this work will advance foundation models for transaction-like data and catalyze future research in this emerging field.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a widely used approach to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) without reducing generation quality. It operates by first using a compact model to draft multiple tokens efficiently, followed by parallel verification using the target LLM. This approach leads to faster inference compared to auto-regressive decoding. While there are multiple approaches to create a draft model, one promising approach is to use early-exit methods. These methods draft candidate tokens by using a subset of layers of the primary model and applying the remaining layers for verification, allowing a single model to handle both drafting and verification. While this technique reduces memory usage and computational cost, its performance relies on the choice of the exit layer for drafting and the number of tokens drafted (speculation length) in each SD round. Prior works use hyperparameter exploration to statically select these values. However, our evaluations show that these hyperparameter values are task-specific, and even within a task they are dependent on the current sequence context. We introduce DEL, a plug-and-play method that adaptively selects the exit layer and speculation length during inference. DEL dynamically tracks the token acceptance rate if the tokens are drafted at each layer of an LLM and uses that knowledge to heuristically select the optimal exit layer and speculation length. Our experiments across a broad range of models and downstream tasks show that DEL achieves overall speedups of 2.16timessim2.50times over vanilla auto-regressive decoding and improves upon the state-of-the-art SD methods by up to 0.27times.

Speculative decoding is an effective and lossless approach for accelerating LLM inference. However, existing widely adopted model-based draft designs, such as EAGLE3, improve accuracy at the cost of multi-step autoregressive inference, resulting in high drafting latency and ultimately rendering the drafting stage itself a performance bottleneck. Inspired by diffusion-based large language models (dLLMs), we propose DART, which leverages parallel generation to reduce drafting latency. DART predicts logits for multiple future masked positions in parallel within a single forward pass based on hidden states of the target model, thereby eliminating autoregressive rollouts in the draft model while preserving a lightweight design. Based on these parallel logit predictions, we further introduce an efficient tree pruning algorithm that constructs high-quality draft token trees with N-gram-enforced semantic continuity. DART substantially reduces draft-stage overhead while preserving high draft accuracy, leading to significantly improved end-to-end decoding speed. Experimental results demonstrate that DART achieves a 2.03x--3.44x wall-clock time speedup across multiple datasets, surpassing EAGLE3 by 30% on average and offering a practical speculative decoding framework. Code is released at https://github.com/fvliang/DART.

Speculative Decoding is a widely used technique to speed up inference for Large Language Models (LLMs) without sacrificing quality. When performing inference, speculative decoding uses a smaller draft model to generate speculative tokens and then uses the target LLM to verify those draft tokens. The speedup provided by speculative decoding heavily depends on the choice of the draft model. In this work, we perform a detailed study comprising over 350 experiments with LLaMA-65B and OPT-66B using speculative decoding and delineate the factors that affect the performance gain provided by speculative decoding. Our experiments indicate that the performance of speculative decoding depends heavily on the latency of the draft model, and the draft model's capability in language modeling does not correlate strongly with its performance in speculative decoding. Based on these insights we explore a new design space for draft models and design hardware-efficient draft models for speculative decoding. Our newly designed draft model for LLaMA-65B can provide 60% higher throughput than existing draft models and can generalize further to the LLaMA-2 model family and supervised fine-tuned models.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a recently proposed technique for faster inference using Large Language Models (LLMs). SD operates by using a smaller draft LLM for autoregressively generating a sequence of tokens and a larger target LLM for parallel verification to ensure statistical consistency. However, periodic parallel calls to the target LLM for verification prevent SD from achieving even lower latencies. We propose SPRINTER, which utilizes a low-complexity verifier trained to predict if tokens generated from a draft LLM would be accepted by the target LLM. By performing sequential approximate verification, SPRINTER does not require verification by the target LLM and is only invoked when a token is deemed unacceptable. This reduces the number of calls to the larger LLM, achieving further speedups and lower computation cost. We present a theoretical analysis of SPRINTER, examining the statistical properties of the generated tokens, as well as the expected reduction in latency as a function of the verifier. We evaluate SPRINTER on several datasets and model pairs, demonstrating that approximate verification can still maintain high quality generation while further reducing latency.

Effective decision-making in Large Language Models (LLMs) is essential for handling intricate tasks. However, existing approaches prioritize performance but often overlook the balance between effectiveness and computational cost. To address this, we first introduce the 3E Criteria to systematically assess the cost-effectiveness of search strategies, revealing that existing methods often trade significant efficiency for marginal performance gains. To improve LLM decision-making while maintaining efficiency, we propose the Speculative Reward Model (SRM), a plug-and-play framework that seamlessly integrates with existing search strategies. Specifically, SRM employs an external reward assigner to predict optimal actions, reducing reliance on LLMs' internal self-evaluation. And a speculative verification mechanism is used to prune suboptimal choices and guide the search toward more promising steps. We evaluate SRM on several complex decision-making tasks including mathematical reasoning, planning and numerical reasoning in specialized domains. Experimental results show that SRM reduces costs to 1/10 of the original search framework on average while maintaining effectiveness.

Speculative decoding emerges as a pivotal technique for enhancing the inference speed of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite recent research aiming to improve prediction efficiency, multi-sample speculative decoding has been overlooked due to varying numbers of accepted tokens within a batch in the verification phase. Vanilla method adds padding tokens in order to ensure that the number of new tokens remains consistent across samples. However, this increases the computational and memory access overhead, thereby reducing the speedup ratio. We propose a novel method that can resolve the issue of inconsistent tokens accepted by different samples without necessitating an increase in memory or computing overhead. Furthermore, our proposed method can handle the situation where the prediction tokens of different samples are inconsistent without the need to add padding tokens. Sufficient experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/niyunsheng/EMS-SD.

Speculative decoding and quantization effectively accelerate memory-bound inference of large language models. Speculative decoding mitigates the memory bandwidth bottleneck by verifying multiple tokens within a single forward pass, which increases computational effort. Quantization achieves this optimization by compressing weights and activations into lower bit-widths and also reduces computations via low-bit matrix multiplications. To further leverage their strengths, we investigate the integration of these two techniques. Surprisingly, experiments applying the advanced speculative decoding method EAGLE-2 to various quantized models reveal that the memory benefits from 4-bit weight quantization are diminished by the computational load from speculative decoding. Specifically, verifying a tree-style draft incurs significantly more time overhead than a single-token forward pass on 4-bit weight quantized models. This finding led to our new speculative decoding design: a hierarchical framework that employs a small model as an intermediate stage to turn tree-style drafts into sequence drafts, leveraging the memory access benefits of the target quantized model. Experimental results show that our hierarchical approach achieves a 2.78times speedup across various tasks for the 4-bit weight Llama-3-70B model on an A100 GPU, outperforming EAGLE-2 by 1.31times. Code available at https://github.com/AI9Stars/SpecMQuant.

Speculative decoding (SD), where an extra draft model is employed to provide multiple draft tokens first and then the original target model verifies these tokens in parallel, has shown great power for LLM inference acceleration. However, existing SD methods suffer from the mutual waiting problem, i.e., the target model gets stuck when the draft model is guessing tokens, and vice versa. This problem is directly incurred by the asynchronous execution of the draft model and the target model, and is exacerbated due to the fixed draft length in speculative decoding. To address these challenges, we propose a conceptually simple, flexible, and general framework to boost speculative decoding, namely Parallel spEculative decoding with Adaptive dRaft Length (PEARL). Specifically, PEARL proposes pre-verify to verify the first draft token in advance during the drafting phase, and post-verify to generate more draft tokens during the verification phase. PEARL parallels the drafting phase and the verification phase via applying the two strategies, and achieves adaptive draft length for different scenarios, which effectively alleviates the mutual waiting problem. Moreover, we theoretically demonstrate that the mean accepted tokens of PEARL is more than existing draft-then-verify works. Experiments on various text generation benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our \name, leading to a superior speedup performance up to 3.79times and 1.52times, compared to auto-regressive decoding and vanilla speculative decoding, respectively.

Speculative decoding is a widely adopted technique for accelerating inference in large language models (LLMs), but its performance degrades on long inputs due to increased attention cost and reduced draft accuracy. We introduce SpecExtend, a drop-in enhancement that improves the performance of speculative decoding on long sequences without any additional training. SpecExtend integrates efficient attention mechanisms such as FlashAttention and Hybrid Tree Attention into both the draft and target models, reducing latency across all stages. To improve draft accuracy and speed, we propose Cross-model Retrieval, a novel KV cache update strategy that uses the target model's attention scores to dynamically select relevant context for the draft model. Extensive evaluations on three long-context understanding datasets show that SpecExtend accelerates standard tree-based speculative decoding by up to 2.22x for inputs up to 16K tokens, providing an effective solution for speculative decoding of long sequences. The code is available at https://github.com/jycha98/SpecExtend .

Large language model-based deep research agents have been increasingly popular for addressing long-horizon information-seeking tasks, but they often incur high end-to-end latency due to extensive reasoning and frequent tool use. Speculation frameworks aim to reduce latency by overlapping action execution with reasoning; however, existing approaches typically rely on uniform speculation strategies and strict action matching, which limits inference speedups and robustness. In this work, we revisit the speculate-verify paradigm for deep research agents through the lens of action heterogeneity. We show that Search and Visit actions exhibit fundamentally different reasoning and model capacity requirements: entropy-based analysis reveals that Search decisions have higher uncertainty and benefit significantly from explicit reasoning, whereas Visit decisions have lower entropy and depend primarily on model capacity. Motivated by this dual-process characteristic, we propose DualSpec, a heterogeneous speculation framework equipped with a lightweight, confidence-based semantic verifier. Experiments across multiple models and benchmarks demonstrate that DualSpec achieves up to 3.28times end-to-end speedup while maintaining accuracy comparable to fully reasoning agents.

We propose Speculative Decoding (SpecDec), for the first time ever, to formally study exploiting the idea of speculative execution to accelerate autoregressive (AR) decoding. Speculative Decoding has two innovations: Spec-Drafter -- an independent model specially optimized for efficient and accurate drafting -- and Spec-Verification -- a reliable method for verifying the drafted tokens efficiently in the decoding paradigm. Experimental results on various seq2seq tasks including machine translation and abstractive summarization show our approach can achieve around 5times speedup for the popular Transformer architectures with comparable generation quality to beam search decoding, refreshing the impression that the draft-then-verify paradigm introduces only 1.4timessim2times speedup. In addition to the remarkable speedup, we also demonstrate 3 additional advantages of SpecDec, revealing its practical value for accelerating generative models in real-world applications. Our models and codes are available at https://github.com/hemingkx/SpecDec.

Speculative Decoding (SD) accelerates autoregressive large language model (LLM) inference by decoupling generation and verification. While recent methods improve draft quality by tightly coupling the drafter with the target model, the verification mechanism itself remains largely unchanged, relying on strict token-level rejection sampling. In practice, modern LLMs frequently operate in low-margin regimes where the target model exhibits weak preference among top candidates. In such cases, rejecting plausible runner-up tokens yields negligible information gain while incurring substantial rollback cost, leading to a fundamental inefficiency in verification. We propose Margin-Aware Speculative Verification, a training-free and domain-agnostic verification strategy that adapts to the target model's local decisiveness. Our method conditions verification on decision stability measured directly from the target logits and relaxes rejection only when strict verification provides minimal benefit. Importantly, the approach modifies only the verification rule and is fully compatible with existing target-coupled speculative decoding frameworks. Extensive experiments across model scales ranging from 8B to 235B demonstrate that our method delivers consistent and significant inference speedups over state-of-the-art baselines while preserving generation quality across diverse benchmarks.

To mitigate the high inference latency stemming from autoregressive decoding in Large Language Models (LLMs), Speculative Decoding has emerged as a novel decoding paradigm for LLM inference. In each decoding step, this method first efficiently drafts several future tokens and then verifies them in parallel. Unlike autoregressive decoding, Speculative Decoding facilitates the simultaneous decoding of multiple tokens per step, thereby accelerating inference. This paper presents a comprehensive overview and analysis of this promising decoding paradigm. We begin by providing a formal definition and formulation of Speculative Decoding. Then, we organize in-depth discussions on its key facets, including current leading techniques, the challenges faced, and potential future directions in this field. We aim for this work to serve as a catalyst for further research on Speculative Decoding, ultimately contributing to more efficient LLM inference.

Predicting invoice payment is valuable in multiple industries and supports decision-making processes in most financial workflows. However, the challenge in this realm involves dealing with complex data and the lack of data related to decisions-making processes not registered in the accounts receivable system. This work presents a prototype developed as a solution devised during a partnership with a multinational bank to support collectors in predicting invoices payment. The proposed prototype reached up to 77\% of accuracy, which improved the prioritization of customers and supported the daily work of collectors. With the presented results, one expects to support researchers dealing with the problem of invoice payment prediction to get insights and examples of how to tackle issues present in real data.

Adapting large language models (LLMs) via reinforcement learning (RL) is often bottlenecked by the generation stage, which can consume over 75\% of the training time. Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates autoregressive generation in serving systems, but its behavior under RL training remains largely unexplored. We identify three critical gaps that hinder the naive integration of SD into RL systems: diminishing speedups at large batch sizes, drafter staleness under continual actor updates, and drafter-induced policy degradation. To address these gaps, we present ReSpec, a system that adapts SD to RL through three complementary mechanisms: dynamically tuning SD configurations, evolving the drafter via knowledge distillation, and weighting updates by rollout rewards. On Qwen models (3B--14B), ReSpec achieves up to 4.5x speedup while preserving reward convergence and training stability, providing a practical solution for efficient RL-based LLM adaptation.

The growth in the number of parameters of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to a significant surge in computational requirements, making them challenging and costly to deploy. Speculative decoding (SD) leverages smaller models to efficiently propose future tokens, which are then verified by the LLM in parallel. Small models that utilise activations from the LLM currently achieve the fastest decoding speeds. However, we identify several limitations of SD models including the lack of on-policyness during training and partial observability. To address these shortcomings, we propose a more grounded architecture for small models by introducing a Mixture of Attentions for SD. Our novel architecture can be applied in two scenarios: a conventional single device deployment and a novel client-server deployment where the small model is hosted on a consumer device and the LLM on a server. In a single-device scenario, we demonstrate state-of-the-art speedups improving EAGLE-2 by 9.5% and its acceptance length by 25%. In a client-server setting, our experiments demonstrate: 1) state-of-the-art latencies with minimal calls to the server for different network conditions, and 2) in the event of a complete disconnection, our approach can maintain higher accuracy compared to other SD methods and demonstrates advantages over API calls to LLMs, which would otherwise be unable to continue the generation process.

Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference by using a draft model to look ahead, but gains are capped by the cost of autoregressive draft generation: increasing draft size elevates acceptance rates but introduces additional latency overhead exacerbating the speed-accuracy tradeoff. Prior methods (Medusa, Hydra, EAGLE) partially reduce draft cost but either degrade acceptance or introduce overheads that limit scaling. We present Mirror Speculative Decoding (Mirror-SD), an inference algorithm that breaks the latency-acceptance tradeoff. Mirror-SD launches branch-complete rollouts from early-exit signals in parallel with the target model's suffix and explicitly maps computation across heterogeneous accelerators (GPU and NPU) to exploit cross-device parallelism. The draft speculates forward continuations for the target to verify, while the target simultaneously speculates correction paths for the draft, converting speculation into two complementary execution pipelines. To further cut draft latency without weakening acceptance semantics, we add speculative streaming so the draft emits multiple tokens per step. This dual strategy of parallel heterogeneous execution plus multi-token speculative streaming pushes speculative decoding toward its ideal regime of high acceptance with low overhead. On SpecBench with server-scale models from 14B to 66B parameters, Mirror-SD delivers consistent end-to-end gains, achieving 2.8x-5.8x wall-time speedups across diverse tasks and a 30% average relative improvement over the strongest baseline, EAGLE3.

Speculative decoding is an effective and lossless method for Large Language Model (LLM) inference acceleration. It employs a smaller model to generate a draft token sequence, which is then verified by the original base model. In multi-GPU systems, inference latency can be further reduced through tensor parallelism (TP), while the optimal TP size of the draft model is typically smaller than that of the base model, leading to GPU idling during the drafting stage. To solve this problem, we propose EasySpec, a layer-parallel speculation strategy that optimizes the efficiency of multi-GPU utilization.EasySpec breaks the sequential execution order of layers in the drafting model, enabling multi-layer parallelization across devices, albeit with some induced approximation errors. After each drafting-and-verification iteration, the draft model's key-value (KV) cache is calibrated in a single forward pass, preventing long-term error accumulation at minimal additional latency. We evaluated EasySpec on several mainstream open-source LLMs, using smaller versions of models from the same series as drafters. The results demonstrate that EasySpec can achieve a peak speedup of 4.17x compared to vanilla decoding, while preserving the original distribution of the base LLMs. Specifically, the drafting stage can be accelerated by up to 1.62x with a maximum accuracy drop of only 7%, requiring no training or fine-tuning on the draft models.

Introduction: The paper addresses the challenging problem of predicting the short-term realized volatility of the Bitcoin price using order flow information. The inherent stochastic nature and anti-persistence of price pose difficulties in accurate prediction. Methods: To address this, we propose a method that transforms order flow data over a fixed time interval (snapshots) into images. The order flow includes trade sizes, trade directions, and limit order book, and is mapped into image colour channels. These images are then used to train both a simple 3-layer Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and more advanced ResNet-18 and ConvMixer, with additionally supplementing them with hand-crafted features. The models are evaluated against classical GARCH, Multilayer Perceptron trained on raw data, and a naive guess method that considers current volatility as a prediction. Results: The experiments are conducted using price data from January 2021 and evaluate model performance in terms of root mean square error (RMSPE). The results show that our order flow representation with a CNN as a predictive model achieves the best performance, with an RMSPE of 0.85+/-1.1 for the model with aggregated features and 1.0+/-1.4 for the model without feature supplementation. ConvMixer with feature supplementation follows closely. In comparison, the RMSPE for the naive guess method was 1.4+/-3.0.

Speculative Decoding (SD) has emerged as a widely used paradigm to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) without compromising generation quality. It works by efficiently drafting multiple tokens using a compact model and then verifying them in parallel using the target LLM. Notably, Self-Speculative Decoding proposes skipping certain layers to construct the draft model, which eliminates the need for additional parameters or training. Despite its strengths, we observe in this work that drafting with layer skipping exhibits significant sensitivity to domain shifts, leading to a substantial drop in acceleration performance. To enhance the domain generalizability of this paradigm, we introduce KNN-SSD, an algorithm that leverages K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) search to match different skipped layers with various domain inputs. We evaluated our algorithm in various models and multiple tasks, observing that its application leads to 1.3x-1.6x speedup in LLM inference.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) can now process extremely long contexts, efficient inference over these extended inputs has become increasingly important, especially for emerging applications like LLM agents that highly depend on this capability. Speculative decoding (SD) offers a promising lossless acceleration technique compared to lossy alternatives such as quantization and model cascades. However, most state-of-the-art SD methods are trained on short texts (typically fewer than 4k tokens), making them unsuitable for long-context scenarios. Specifically, adapting these methods to long contexts presents three key challenges: (1) the excessive memory demands posed by draft models due to large Key-Value (KV) cache; (2) performance degradation resulting from the mismatch between short-context training and long-context inference; and (3) inefficiencies in tree attention mechanisms when managing long token sequences. This work introduces LongSpec, a framework that addresses these challenges through three core innovations: a memory-efficient draft model with a constant-sized KV cache; novel position indices that mitigate the training-inference mismatch; and an attention aggregation strategy that combines fast prefix computation with standard tree attention to enable efficient decoding. Experimental results confirm the effectiveness of LongSpec, achieving up to a 3.26x speedup over strong Flash Attention baselines across five long-context understanding datasets, as well as a 2.25x reduction in wall-clock time on the AIME24 long reasoning task with the QwQ model, demonstrating significant latency improvements for long-context applications. The code is available at https://github.com/sail-sg/LongSpec.

Accelerating the inference of large language models (LLMs) is a critical challenge in generative AI. Speculative decoding (SD) methods offer substantial efficiency gains by generating multiple tokens using a single target forward pass. However, existing SD approaches require the drafter and target models to share the same vocabulary, thus limiting the pool of possible drafters, often necessitating the training of a drafter from scratch. We present three new SD methods that remove this shared-vocabulary constraint. All three methods preserve the target distribution (i.e., they are lossless) and work with off-the-shelf models without requiring additional training or modifications. Empirically, on summarization, programming, and long-context tasks, our algorithms achieve significant speedups over standard autoregressive decoding. By enabling any off-the-shelf model to serve as drafter and requiring no retraining, this work substantially broadens the applicability of the SD framework in practice.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

We propose a novel speculative decoding method tailored for multi-sample reasoning scenarios, such as self-consistency and Best-of-N sampling. Our method exploits the intrinsic consensus of parallel generation paths to synthesize high-quality draft tokens without requiring auxiliary models or external databases. By dynamically analyzing structural patterns across parallel reasoning paths through a probabilistic aggregation mechanism, it identifies consensus token sequences that align with the decoding distribution. Evaluations on mathematical reasoning benchmarks demonstrate a substantial improvement in draft acceptance rates over baselines, while reducing the latency in draft token construction. This work establishes a paradigm shift for efficient multi-sample inference, enabling seamless integration of speculative decoding with sampling-based reasoning techniques.

Parallel Speculative Decoding (PSD) accelerates traditional Speculative Decoding (SD) by overlapping draft generation with verification. However, it remains hampered by two fundamental challenges: (1) a theoretical speedup ceiling dictated by the speed ratio between the draft and target models, and (2) high computational waste and pipeline stall due to mid-sequence token rejections of early errors. To address these limitations, we introduce Double (Double Retrieval Speculative Parallelism). By bridging the gap between SD and PSD, our framework resolves the Retrieval Precision-Efficiency Dilemma through a novel synchronous mechanism. Specifically, we enable the draft model to execute iterative retrieval speculations to break the theoretical speedup limits; to alleviate rejections without rollback, the target model performs authoritative retrieval to generate multi-token guidance. Double is entirely training-free and lossless. Extensive experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art speedup of 5.3times on LLaMA3.3-70B and 2.8times on Qwen3-32B, significantly outperforming the advanced method EAGLE-3 that requires extensive model training.

Speculative decoding has emerged as a powerful method to improve latency and throughput in hosting large language models. However, most existing implementations focus on generating a single sequence. Real-world generative AI applications often require multiple responses and how to perform speculative decoding in a batched setting while preserving its latency benefits poses non-trivial challenges. This paper describes a system of batched speculative decoding that sets a new state of the art in multi-sequence generation latency and that demonstrates superior GPU utilization as well as quality of generations within a time budget. For example, for a 7.8B-size model on a single A100 GPU and with a batch size of 8, each sequence is generated at an average speed of 5.8ms per token, the overall throughput being 1.1K tokens per second. These results represent state-of-the-art latency and a 2.15X speed-up over optimized regular decoding. Within a time budget that regular decoding does not finish, our system is able to generate sequences with HumanEval Pass@First of 43% and Pass@All of 61%, far exceeding what's feasible with single-sequence speculative decoding. Our peak GPU utilization during decoding reaches as high as 15.8%, more than 3X the highest of that of regular decoding and around 10X of single-sequence speculative decoding.

Inference from large autoregressive models like Transformers is slow - decoding K tokens takes K serial runs of the model. In this work we introduce speculative decoding - an algorithm to sample from autoregressive models faster without any changes to the outputs, by computing several tokens in parallel. At the heart of our approach lie the observations that (1) hard language-modeling tasks often include easier subtasks that can be approximated well by more efficient models, and (2) using speculative execution and a novel sampling method, we can make exact decoding from the large models faster, by running them in parallel on the outputs of the approximation models, potentially generating several tokens concurrently, and without changing the distribution. Our method can accelerate existing off-the-shelf models without retraining or architecture changes. We demonstrate it on T5-XXL and show a 2X-3X acceleration compared to the standard T5X implementation, with identical outputs.