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Apr 15

ACAR: Adaptive Complexity Routing for Multi-Model Ensembles with Auditable Decision Traces

We present ACAR (Adaptive Complexity and Attribution Routing), a measurement framework for studying multi-model orchestration under auditable conditions. ACAR uses self-consistency variance (sigma) computed from N=3 probe samples to route tasks across single-model, two-model, and three-model execution modes. The system is implemented on top of TEAMLLM, a deterministic execution substrate with immutable artifacts and complete decision traces. We evaluate ACAR on 1,510 tasks spanning four benchmarks: MathArena, Reasoning Gym, LiveCodeBench, and SuperGPQA, using Claude Sonnet 4, GPT-4o, and Gemini 2.0 Flash, producing more than 7,550 auditable runs. Results show that sigma-based routing achieves 55.6 percent accuracy, exceeding the two-model baseline of 54.4 percent while avoiding full ensembling on 54.2 percent of tasks. The routing mechanism is model-agnostic and requires no learned components. We also document negative results. First, retrieval augmentation reduced accuracy by 3.4 percentage points, as median retrieval similarity was only 0.167, demonstrating that experience injection without semantic alignment introduces noise rather than grounding. Second, when models agree on incorrect answers (sigma equals zero), no downstream ensemble can recover; this agreement-but-wrong failure mode is intrinsic to self-consistency and bounds achievable accuracy at approximately eight percentage points below full ensembling. Third, attribution estimates based on proxy signals such as response similarity and entropy showed weak correlation with ground-truth leave-one-out values, indicating that practical attribution requires explicit counterfactual computation. This work documents which assumptions fail in practice and provides falsifiable baselines for future research on routing, retrieval, and multi-model attribution.

  • 1 authors
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Feb 6

SIGMA: An AI-Empowered Training Stack on Early-Life Hardware

An increasing variety of AI accelerators is being considered for large-scale training. However, enabling large-scale training on early-life AI accelerators faces three core challenges: frequent system disruptions and undefined failure modes that undermine reliability; numerical errors and training instabilities that threaten correctness and convergence; and the complexity of parallelism optimization combined with unpredictable local noise that degrades efficiency. To address these challenges, SIGMA is an open-source training stack designed to improve the reliability, stability, and efficiency of large-scale distributed training on early-life AI hardware. The core of this initiative is the LUCIA TRAINING PLATFORM (LTP), the system optimized for clusters with early-life AI accelerators. Since its launch in March 2025, LTP has significantly enhanced training reliability and operational productivity. Over the past five months, it has achieved an impressive 94.45% effective cluster accelerator utilization, while also substantially reducing node recycling and job-recovery times. Building on the foundation of LTP, the LUCIA TRAINING FRAMEWORK (LTF) successfully trained SIGMA-MOE, a 200B MoE model, using 2,048 AI accelerators. This effort delivered remarkable stability and efficiency outcomes, achieving 21.08% MFU, state-of-the-art downstream accuracy, and encountering only one stability incident over a 75-day period. Together, these advances establish SIGMA, which not only tackles the critical challenges of large-scale training but also establishes a new benchmark for AI infrastructure and platform innovation, offering a robust, cost-effective alternative to prevailing established accelerator stacks and significantly advancing AI capabilities and scalability. The source code of SIGMA is available at https://github.com/microsoft/LuciaTrainingPlatform.

microsoft Microsoft
·
Dec 15, 2025