Daily Papers

Large multimodal language models (MLLMs) are increasingly deployed as web agents, yet many multimodal browsing benchmarks can be solved by shallow, fixed workflows that lean on high-recall image search and nearby text-masking the genuinely multimodal challenges of fine-grained visual reasoning, provenance verification, and long-horizon tool use. We introduce MMSearch-Plus, a benchmark of 311 tasks that highly demand multimodal understanding while preserving the difficulty profile of strong text-only browsing suites. Each item is constructed to contain multiple weak, localized visual signals that must be extracted, propagated through iterative text-image search, and cross-validated under retrieval noise before answering. Our curation procedure, Spatial-Temporal Extrapolation, seeds questions whose answers require extrapolating from spatial cues (micro-text, part-level appearance, layouts, signage) and temporal traces (broadcast overlays, seasonal context) to out-of-image facts such as events, dates, and venues. We provide a model-agnostic agent framework with browsing tools and evaluate a range of closed and open MLLMs. The strongest agent (o3) attains 15.1% without search and 36.0% accuracy with rollout under our framework, while a strong open-source model (Qwen-2.5-VL-72B-Instruct) achieves 0.0% without search and 6.9% after 20 rounds of search. Beyond answer accuracy, we assess bounding-box production and cropped-image search, and conduct an error analysis that surfaces failures in source verification, part-based reasoning, and long-horizon planning.

One of the most important challenges for improving personalized services in industries like tourism is predicting users' near-future movements based on prior behavior and current circumstances. Next POI (Point of Interest) recommendation is essential for helping users and service providers by providing personalized recommendations. The intricacy of this work, however, stems from the requirement to take into consideration several variables at once, such as user preferences, time contexts, and geographic locations. POI selection is also greatly influenced by elements like a POI's operational status during desired visit times, desirability for visiting during particular seasons, and its dynamic popularity over time. POI popularity is mostly determined by check-in frequency in recent studies, ignoring visitor volumes, operational constraints, and temporal dynamics. These restrictions result in recommendations that are less than ideal and do not take into account actual circumstances. We propose the Seasonal and Active hours-guided Graph-Enhanced Transformer (SEAGET) model as a solution to these problems. By integrating variations in the seasons, operational status, and temporal dynamics into a graph-enhanced transformer framework, SEAGET capitalizes on redefined POI popularity. This invention gives more accurate and context-aware next POI predictions, with potential applications for optimizing tourist experiences and enhancing location-based services in the tourism industry.

Accurate subseasonal weather forecasting remains a major challenge due to the inherently chaotic nature of the atmosphere, which limits the predictive skill of conventional models beyond the mid-range horizon (approximately 15 days). In this work, we present Marchuk, a generative latent flow-matching model for global weather forecasting spanning mid-range to subseasonal timescales, with prediction horizons of up to 30 days. Marchuk conditions on current-day weather maps and autoregressively predicts subsequent days' weather maps within the learned latent space. We replace rotary positional encodings (RoPE) with trainable positional embeddings and extend the temporal context window, which together enhance the model's ability to represent and propagate long-range temporal dependencies during latent forecasting. Marchuk offers two key advantages: high computational efficiency and strong predictive performance. Despite its compact architecture of only 276 million parameters, the model achieves performance comparable to LaDCast, a substantially larger model with 1.6 billion parameters, while operating at significantly higher inference speeds. We open-source our inference code and model at: https://v-gen-ai.github.io/Marchuk/

The fire and crime incident datasets were requested and collected from two Philippine regional agencies (i.e., the Bureau of Fire Protection and the Philippine National Police). The datasets were used to initially analyze and map both fire and crime incidents within the province of Pampanga for a specific time frame. Several data preparation, normalization, and data cleaning steps were implemented to properly map and identify patterns within the datasets. The initial results also indicate the leading causes of fire and crimes are rubbish and acts against property. Fires mostly occur during the dry season in the province. Crime is particularly high during December, and most of the fire and crime incidents occur during the time when people are most active. The dataset was able to present the temporal characteristics of the fire and crime incidents that occurred in the province of Pampanga. Merge the existing dataset with the other datasets from other related agencies to get a bigger picture and produce more objective results that could be used for decision-making.

This is the preface for the book by E. N. Dzhafarov, J. V. Kujala, and V. H. Cervantes, titled Contextuality in Random Variables: A Systematic Introduction. It is to be published by Cambridge University Press in 2026.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

Historical weather records from Europe indicate that the Earth experienced substantial climate variability, which caused, for instance, the Little Ice Age and the global crisis in the period between the 14th and 19th centuries. However, it is still unclear how global this climate variability was because of the scarce meteorological data availability in other regions including East Asia, especially around the 17th century. In this context, Seungjeongwon Ilgi, a daily record of the Royal Secretariat of the Joseon Dynasty of Korea, is a precious source of historical meteorological records for the Korean Peninsula, as it covers 288 years of weather observations made during 1623-1910. We used the digital database of Seungjeongwon Ilgi to construct a machine-readable weather condition dataset. To this end, we extracted valid weather information from the original weather description text and compiled them into predefined weather categories. Additionally, we attempted to improve the usability of the dataset by converting the reported dates in the traditional calendar system to those in the Gregorian calendar. Finally, we outlined the promising implications of this dataset for meteorological and climatological studies, while describing the limitations of the dataset. Overall, future studies focusing on the climate and weather of the past could use this meteorological database for investigating long-term climate variability. Our datasets are publicly available at 10.5281/zenodo.8142701.

With the exacerbation of the biodiversity and climate crises, macroecological pursuits such as global biodiversity mapping become more urgent. Remote sensing offers a wealth of Earth observation data for ecological studies, but the scarcity of labeled datasets remains a major challenge. Recently, self-supervised learning has enabled learning representations from unlabeled data, triggering the development of pretrained geospatial models with generalizable features. However, these models are often trained on datasets biased toward areas of high human activity, leaving entire ecological regions underrepresented. Additionally, while some datasets attempt to address seasonality through multi-date imagery, they typically follow calendar seasons rather than local phenological cycles. To better capture vegetation seasonality at a global scale, we propose a simple phenology-informed sampling strategy and introduce corresponding SSL4Eco, a multi-date Sentinel-2 dataset, on which we train an existing model with a season-contrastive objective. We compare representations learned from SSL4Eco against other datasets on diverse ecological downstream tasks and demonstrate that our straightforward sampling method consistently improves representation quality, highlighting the importance of dataset construction. The model pretrained on SSL4Eco reaches state of the art performance on 7 out of 8 downstream tasks spanning (multi-label) classification and regression. We release our code, data, and model weights to support macroecological and computer vision research at https://github.com/PlekhanovaElena/ssl4eco.

We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model simultaneously captures these amplitude-modulated seasonal cycles along with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which naturally emerges as an intrinsic feature of the system rather than a separate phenomenon. Using sixteen-dimensional regression based on four spatially distributed time series per variable, the model delivers unprecedented forecast accuracy for both interannual amplitude modulations and PDO evolution, maintaining skill beyond 36 months -- a substantial improvement over current operational and research forecasts, including machine learning methods. Predictions initialized in 2024 project that the PDO will remain in its negative phase through late 2026, implying reduced likelihood of severe marine heatwaves in the eastern North Pacific during this period. These findings have direct implications for regional climate impacts, including storm tracks, precipitation patterns, and marine ecosystem health. By treating seasonal and interannual variability as coupled rather than independent processes, this framework advances our understanding of North Pacific climate dynamics and provides a powerful tool for stakeholders managing climate-sensitive resources and planning adaptation strategies in regions strongly influenced by North Pacific conditions.

Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap: multimodal models often fail to outperform their unimodal counterparts. We hypothesize that this underperformance stems from poor context quality in existing datasets, as verification is challenging. To address these limitations, we introduce a semi-synthetic data augmentation method that generates contexts both descriptive of temporal dynamics and verifiably complementary to numerical histories. This approach enables massive-scale dataset creation, resulting in CAF-7M, a corpus of 7 million context-augmented time series windows, including a rigorously verified test set. We demonstrate that semi-synthetic pre-training transfers effectively to real-world evaluation, and show clear evidence of context utilization. Our results suggest that dataset quality, rather than architectural limitations, has been the primary bottleneck in context-aided forecasting.

Time series data is essential in various applications, including climate modeling, healthcare monitoring, and financial analytics. Understanding the contextual information associated with real-world time series data is often essential for accurate and reliable event predictions. In this paper, we introduce TimeCAP, a time-series processing framework that creatively employs Large Language Models (LLMs) as contextualizers of time series data, extending their typical usage as predictors. TimeCAP incorporates two independent LLM agents: one generates a textual summary capturing the context of the time series, while the other uses this enriched summary to make more informed predictions. In addition, TimeCAP employs a multi-modal encoder that synergizes with the LLM agents, enhancing predictive performance through mutual augmentation of inputs with in-context examples. Experimental results on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeCAP outperforms state-of-the-art methods for time series event prediction, including those utilizing LLMs as predictors, achieving an average improvement of 28.75% in F1 score.

The concentration of radon in the air has been measured in the 700 m-deep Yangyang underground laboratory between October 2004 and May 2022. The average concentrations in two experimental areas, called A6 and A5, were measured to be 53.4pm0.2 Bq/m3 and 33.5pm0.1 Bq/m3, respectively. The lower value in the A5 area reflects the presence of better temperature control and ventilation. The radon concentrations sampled within the two A5 experimental rooms' air are found to be correlated to the local surface temperature outside of the rooms, with correlation coefficients r = 0.22 and r = 0.70. Therefore, the radon concentrations display a seasonal variation, because the local temperature driven by the overground season influences air ventilation in the experimental areas. A fit on the annual residual concentrations finds that the amplitude occurs each year on August, 31pm6 days.

This paper presents a challenging multi-agent seasonal dataset collected by a fleet of Ford autonomous vehicles at different days and times during 2017-18. The vehicles traversed an average route of 66 km in Michigan that included a mix of driving scenarios such as the Detroit Airport, freeways, city-centers, university campus and suburban neighbourhoods, etc. Each vehicle used in this data collection is a Ford Fusion outfitted with an Applanix POS-LV GNSS system, four HDL-32E Velodyne 3D-lidar scanners, 6 Point Grey 1.3 MP Cameras arranged on the rooftop for 360-degree coverage and 1 Pointgrey 5 MP camera mounted behind the windshield for the forward field of view. We present the seasonal variation in weather, lighting, construction and traffic conditions experienced in dynamic urban environments. This dataset can help design robust algorithms for autonomous vehicles and multi-agent systems. Each log in the dataset is time-stamped and contains raw data from all the sensors, calibration values, pose trajectory, ground truth pose, and 3D maps. All data is available in Rosbag format that can be visualized, modified and applied using the open-source Robot Operating System (ROS). We also provide the output of state-of-the-art reflectivity-based localization for bench-marking purposes. The dataset can be freely downloaded at our website.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

WeatherBench 2 is an update to the global, medium-range (1-14 day) weather forecasting benchmark proposed by Rasp et al. (2020), designed with the aim to accelerate progress in data-driven weather modeling. WeatherBench 2 consists of an open-source evaluation framework, publicly available training, ground truth and baseline data as well as a continuously updated website with the latest metrics and state-of-the-art models: https://sites.research.google/weatherbench. This paper describes the design principles of the evaluation framework and presents results for current state-of-the-art physical and data-driven weather models. The metrics are based on established practices for evaluating weather forecasts at leading operational weather centers. We define a set of headline scores to provide an overview of model performance. In addition, we also discuss caveats in the current evaluation setup and challenges for the future of data-driven weather forecasting.

Food choice is a complex phenomenon shaped by factors such as taste, ambience, culture or weather. In this paper, we explore food-related tweeting in different weather conditions. We inspect a Latvian food tweet dataset spanning the past decade in conjunction with a weather observation dataset consisting of average temperature, precipitation, and other phenomena. We find which weather conditions lead to specific food information sharing; automatically classify tweet sentiment and discuss how it changes depending on the weather. This research contributes to the growing area of large-scale social network data understanding of food consumers' choices and perceptions.

We present Visuelle 2.0, the first dataset useful for facing diverse prediction problems that a fast-fashion company has to manage routinely. Furthermore, we demonstrate how the use of computer vision is substantial in this scenario. Visuelle 2.0 contains data for 6 seasons / 5355 clothing products of Nuna Lie, a famous Italian company with hundreds of shops located in different areas within the country. In particular, we focus on a specific prediction problem, namely short-observation new product sale forecasting (SO-fore). SO-fore assumes that the season has started and a set of new products is on the shelves of the different stores. The goal is to forecast the sales for a particular horizon, given a short, available past (few weeks), since no earlier statistics are available. To be successful, SO-fore approaches should capture this short past and exploit other modalities or exogenous data. To these aims, Visuelle 2.0 is equipped with disaggregated data at the item-shop level and multi-modal information for each clothing item, allowing computer vision approaches to come into play. The main message that we deliver is that the use of image data with deep networks boosts performances obtained when using the time series in long-term forecasting scenarios, ameliorating the WAPE and MAE by up to 5.48% and 7% respectively compared to competitive baseline methods. The dataset is available at https://humaticslab.github.io/forecasting/visuelle

Time series foundation models have shown impressive performance on a variety of tasks, across a wide range of domains, even in zero-shot settings. However, most of these models are designed to handle short univariate time series as an input. This limits their practical use, especially in domains such as healthcare with copious amounts of long and multivariate data with strong temporal and intra-variate dependencies. Our study bridges this gap by cataloging and systematically comparing various context expansion techniques from both language and time series domains, and introducing a novel compressive memory mechanism to allow encoder-only TSFMs to effectively model intra-variate dependencies. We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by imbuing MOMENT, a recent family of multi-task time series foundation models, with the multivariate context.

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose \method, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/ICML25-TimeVLM.

Purpose. We present an approach for forecasting mental health conditions and emotions of a given population during the COVID-19 pandemic in Argentina based on language expressions used in social media. This approach permits anticipating high prevalence periods in short- to medium-term time horizons. Design. Mental health conditions and emotions are captured via markers, which link social media contents with lexicons. First, we build descriptive timelines for decision makers to monitor the evolution of markers, and their correlation with crisis events. Second, we model the timelines as time series, and support their forecasting, which in turn serve to identify high prevalence points for the estimated markers. Findings. Results showed that different time series forecasting strategies offer different capabilities. In the best scenario, the emergence of high prevalence periods of emotions and mental health disorders can be satisfactorily predicted with a neural network strategy, even when limited data is available in early stages of a crisis (e.g., 7 days). Originality. Although there have been efforts in the literature to predict mental states of individuals, the analysis of mental health at the collective level has received scarce attention. We take a step forward by proposing a forecasting approach for analyzing the mental health of a given population (or group of individuals) at a larger scale. Practical implications. We believe that this work contributes to a better understanding of how psychological processes related to crisis manifest in social media, being a valuable asset for the design, implementation and monitoring of health prevention and communication policies.

We consider a biological population whose environment varies periodically in time, exhibiting two very different "seasons" : one is favorable and the other one is unfavorable. For monotone differential models with concave nonlinearities, we address the following question: the system's period being fixed, under what conditions does there exist a critical duration for the unfavorable season? By "critical duration" we mean that above some threshold, the population cannot sustain and extincts, while below this threshold, the system converges to a unique periodic and positive solution. We term this a "sharp seasonal threshold property" (SSTP, for short). Building upon a previous result, we obtain sufficient conditions for SSTP in any dimension and apply our criterion to a two-dimensional model featuring juvenile and adult populations of insects.

A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for difference in the transmission rate of infection to a susceptible by a carrier and an infective. It is generalized to allow a proportion ({\phi}) of those susceptibles infected to progress directly to infectives in stage I. Both models are used in this study. The threshold conditions for the spread of carrier and infectives in stage I are derived for the two models. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reproductive number derived from the next generation matrix. The case-carrier ratio profile for various parameters and threshold values are shown. So also are the graphs of the total number ever infected as influenced by {\epsilon} and {\phi}. The infection transmission rate (eta), the odds in favor of a carrier, over an infective, in transmitting an infection to a susceptible ({\epsilon}) and the carrier conversion rate ({\phi}) to an infective in stage I, are identified as key parameters that should be subject of attention for any control intervention strategy. The case-carrier ratio profiles provide evidence of a critical case-carrier ratio attained before the number of reported cases grows to an epidemic level. They also provide visual evidence of epidemiological context, in this case, epidemic incidence (in later part of dry season) and endemic incidence (during rainy season). Results from total proportion ever infected suggest that the model, in which {\phi}=0 obtained, can adequately represent, in essence, the generalized model for this study.

Canada experienced in 2023 one of the most severe wildfire seasons in recent history, causing damage across ecosystems, destroying communities, and emitting large quantities of CO2. This extreme wildfire season is symptomatic of a climate-change-induced increase in the length and severity of the fire season that affects the boreal ecosystem. Therefore, it is critical to empower wildfire management in boreal communities with better mitigation solutions. Wildfire probability maps represent an important tool for understanding the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the potential severity of future wildfires. The massive increase in the availability of Earth observation data has enabled the development of deep learning-based wildfire forecasting models, aiming at providing precise wildfire probability maps at different spatial and temporal scales. A main limitation of such methods is their reliance on coarse-resolution environmental drivers and satellite products, leading to wildfire occurrence prediction of reduced resolution, typically around sim 0.1{\deg}. This paper presents a benchmark dataset: CanadaFireSat, and baseline methods for high-resolution: 100 m wildfire forecasting across Canada, leveraging multi-modal data from high-resolution multi-spectral satellite images (Sentinel-2 L1C), mid-resolution satellite products (MODIS), and environmental factors (ERA5 reanalysis data). Our experiments consider two major deep learning architectures. We observe that using multi-modal temporal inputs outperforms single-modal temporal inputs across all metrics, achieving a peak performance of 60.3% in F1 score for the 2023 wildfire season, a season never seen during model training. This demonstrates the potential of multi-modal deep learning models for wildfire forecasting at high-resolution and continental scale.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, people sought information through digital news platforms. To investigate how to design these platforms to support users' needs in a crisis, we conducted a two-week diary study with 22 participants across the United States. Participants' news-consumption experience followed two stages: in the seeking stage, participants increased their general consumption, motivated by three common informational needs -- specifically, to find, understand and verify relevant news pieces. Participants then moved to the sustaining stage, and coping with the news emotionally became as important as their informational needs. We elicited design ideas from participants and used these to distill six themes for creating digital news platforms that provide better informational and emotional support during a crisis. Thus, we contribute, first, a model of users' needs over time with respect to engaging with crisis news, and second, example design concepts for supporting users' needs in each of these stages.

After a very long winter, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) spring is here. Or, so it seems over the last three years. AI has the potential to impact many areas of human life - personal, social, health, education, professional. In this paper, we take a closer look at the potential of AI for Enterprises, where decision-making plays a crucial and repeated role across functions, tasks, and operations. We consider Agents imbued with AI as means to increase decision-productivity of enterprises. We highlight six tenets for Agentic success in enterprises, by drawing attention to what the current, AI-Centric User paradigm misses, in the face of persistent needs of and usefulness for Enterprise Decision-Making. In underscoring a shift to User-Centric AI, we offer six tenets and promote market mechanisms for platforms, aligning the design of AI and its delivery by Agents to the cause of enterprise users.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

In the shipping industry, fuel consumption and emissions are critical factors due to their significant impact on economic efficiency and environmental sustainability. Accurate prediction of ship fuel consumption is essential for further optimization of maritime operations. However, heterogeneous methodologies and limited high-quality datasets hinder direct comparison of modeling approaches. This paper makes three key contributions: (1) we introduce and release a new dataset (https://huggingface.co/datasets/krohnedigital/FuelCast) comprising operational and environmental data from three ships; (2) we define a standardized benchmark covering tabular regression and time-series regression (3) we investigate the application of in-context learning for ship consumption modeling using the TabPFN foundation model - a first in this domain to our knowledge. Our results demonstrate strong performance across all evaluated models, supporting the feasibility of onboard, data-driven fuel prediction. Models incorporating environmental conditions consistently outperform simple polynomial baselines relying solely on vessel speed. TabPFN slightly outperforms other techniques, highlighting the potential of foundation models with in-context learning capabilities for tabular prediction. Furthermore, including temporal context improves accuracy.

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementation of state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

Encouraged by decision makers' appetite for future information on topics ranging from elections to pandemics, and enabled by the explosion of data and computational methods, model based forecasts have garnered increasing influence on a breadth of decisions in modern society. Using several classic examples from fisheries management, I demonstrate that selecting the model or models that produce the most accurate and precise forecast (measured by statistical scores) can sometimes lead to worse outcomes (measured by real-world objectives). This can create a forecast trap, in which the outcomes such as fish biomass or economic yield decline while the manager becomes increasingly convinced that these actions are consistent with the best models and data available. The forecast trap is not unique to this example, but a fundamental consequence of non-uniqueness of models. Existing practices promoting a broader set of models are the best way to avoid the trap.

Successfully handling context is essential for any dialog understanding task. This context maybe be conversational (relying on previous user queries or system responses), visual (relying on what the user sees, for example, on their screen), or background (based on signals such as a ringing alarm or playing music). In this work, we present an overview of MARRS, or Multimodal Reference Resolution System, an on-device framework within a Natural Language Understanding system, responsible for handling conversational, visual and background context. In particular, we present different machine learning models to enable handing contextual queries; specifically, one to enable reference resolution, and one to handle context via query rewriting. We also describe how these models complement each other to form a unified, coherent, lightweight system that can understand context while preserving user privacy.

The ubiquity of dynamic data in domains such as weather, healthcare, and energy underscores a growing need for effective interpretation and retrieval of time-series data. These data are inherently tied to domain-specific contexts, such as clinical notes or weather narratives, making cross-modal retrieval essential not only for downstream tasks but also for developing robust time-series foundation models by retrieval-augmented generation (RAG). Despite the increasing demand, time-series retrieval remains largely underexplored. Existing methods often lack semantic grounding, struggle to align heterogeneous modalities, and have limited capacity for handling multi-channel signals. To address this gap, we propose TRACE, a generic multimodal retriever that grounds time-series embeddings in aligned textual context. TRACE enables fine-grained channel-level alignment and employs hard negative mining to facilitate semantically meaningful retrieval. It supports flexible cross-modal retrieval modes, including Text-to-Timeseries and Timeseries-to-Text, effectively linking linguistic descriptions with complex temporal patterns. By retrieving semantically relevant pairs, TRACE enriches downstream models with informative context, leading to improved predictive accuracy and interpretability. Beyond a static retrieval engine, TRACE also serves as a powerful standalone encoder, with lightweight task-specific tuning that refines context-aware representations while maintaining strong cross-modal alignment. These representations achieve state-of-the-art performance on downstream forecasting and classification tasks. Extensive experiments across multiple domains highlight its dual utility, as both an effective encoder for downstream applications and a general-purpose retriever to enhance time-series models.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

Context: The stellar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field modify the topology of planetary magnetospheres. Consequently, the hazardous effect of the direct exposition to the stellar wind, for example regarding the integrity of satellites orbiting the Earth or the habitability of exoplanets, depend upon the space weather conditions. Aims: The aim of the study is to analyze the response of an Earth-like magnetosphere for various space weather conditions and interplanetary coronal mass ejections. The magnetopause stand off distance, open-close field line boundary and plasma flows towards the planet surface are calculated. Methods: We use the MHD code PLUTO in spherical coordinates to perform a parametric study regarding the dynamic pressure and temperature of the stellar wind as well as the interplanetary magnetic field intensity and orientation. The range of the parameters analyzed extends from regular to extreme space weather conditions consistent with coronal mass ejections at the Earth orbit for the present and early periods of the Sun main sequence. In addition, implications of sub-Afvenic solar wind configurations for the Earth and exoplanet magnetospheres are analyzed. Results: The direct precipitation of the solar wind at the Earth day side in equatorial latitudes is extremely unlikely even during super coronal mass ejections. On the other hand, for early evolution phases along the Sun main sequence once the Sun rotation rate was at least 5 times faster (< 440 Myr), the Earth surface was directly exposed to the solar wind during coronal mass ejections. Nowadays, satellites at High, Geosynchronous and Medium orbits are directly exposed to the solar wind during coronal mass ejections, because part of the orbit at the Earth day side is beyond the nose of the bow shock.

In the face of escalating climate changes, typhoon intensities and their ensuing damage have surged. Accurate trajectory prediction is crucial for effective damage control. Traditional physics-based models, while comprehensive, are computationally intensive and rely heavily on the expertise of forecasters. Contemporary data-driven methods often rely on reanalysis data, which can be considered to be the closest to the true representation of weather conditions. However, reanalysis data is not produced in real-time and requires time for adjustment because prediction models are calibrated with observational data. This reanalysis data, such as ERA5, falls short in challenging real-world situations. Optimal preparedness necessitates predictions at least 72 hours in advance, beyond the capabilities of standard physics models. In response to these constraints, we present an approach that harnesses real-time Unified Model (UM) data, sidestepping the limitations of reanalysis data. Our model provides predictions at 6-hour intervals for up to 72 hours in advance and outperforms both state-of-the-art data-driven methods and numerical weather prediction models. In line with our efforts to mitigate adversities inflicted by typhoons, we release our preprocessed PHYSICS TRACK dataset, which includes ERA5 reanalysis data, typhoon best-track, and UM forecast data.

We have compared three common visualisations for hierarchical quantitative data, treemaps, icicle plots and sunburst charts as well as a semicircular variant of sunburst charts we call the sundown chart. In a pilot study, we found that the sunburst chart was least preferred. In a controlled study with 12 participants, we compared treemaps, icicle plots and sundown charts. Treemap was the least preferred and had a slower performance on a basic navigation task and slower performance and accuracy in hierarchy understanding tasks. The icicle plot and sundown chart had similar performance with slight user preference for the icicle plot.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

Precise crop yield predictions are of national importance for ensuring food security and sustainable agricultural practices. While AI-for-science approaches have exhibited promising achievements in solving many scientific problems such as drug discovery, precipitation nowcasting, etc., the development of deep learning models for predicting crop yields is constantly hindered by the lack of an open and large-scale deep learning-ready dataset with multiple modalities to accommodate sufficient information. To remedy this, we introduce the CropNet dataset, the first terabyte-sized, publicly available, and multi-modal dataset specifically targeting climate change-aware crop yield predictions for the contiguous United States (U.S.) continent at the county level. Our CropNet dataset is composed of three modalities of data, i.e., Sentinel-2 Imagery, WRF-HRRR Computed Dataset, and USDA Crop Dataset, for over 2200 U.S. counties spanning 6 years (2017-2022), expected to facilitate researchers in developing versatile deep learning models for timely and precisely predicting crop yields at the county-level, by accounting for the effects of both short-term growing season weather variations and long-term climate change on crop yields. Besides, we develop the CropNet package, offering three types of APIs, for facilitating researchers in downloading the CropNet data on the fly over the time and region of interest, and flexibly building their deep learning models for accurate crop yield predictions. Extensive experiments have been conducted on our CropNet dataset via employing various types of deep learning solutions, with the results validating the general applicability and the efficacy of the CropNet dataset in climate change-aware crop yield predictions.

Accurate forecasts for day-ahead photovoltaic (PV) power generation are crucial to support a high PV penetration rate in the local electricity grid and to assure stability in the grid. We use state-of-the-art tree-based machine learning methods to produce such forecasts and, unlike previous studies, we hereby account for (i) the effects various meteorological as well as astronomical features have on PV power production, and this (ii) at coarse as well as granular spatial locations. To this end, we use data from Belgium and forecast day-ahead PV power production at an hourly resolution. The insights from our study can assist utilities, decision-makers, and other stakeholders in optimizing grid operations, economic dispatch, and in facilitating the integration of distributed PV power into the electricity grid.

Context. Understanding how the shape of cloud particle size distributions affects the atmospheric properties of sub-stellar atmospheres is a key area to explore, particularly in the JWST era of broad wavelength coverage, where observations are sensitive to particle size distributions. It is therefore important to elucidate how underlying cloud microphysical processes influence the size distribution, in order to better understand how clouds affect observed atmospheric properties. Aims. In this follow-up paper, we aim to extend our sub-stellar atmosphere microphysical cloud formation framework from Paper I to include effects of assuming a polydisperse gamma particle size distribution, requiring a three-moment solution set of equations. Methods. We develop a three-moment framework for sub-stellar mineral cloud particle microphysical nucleation, condensation, evaporation and collisional growth assuming a gamma distribution. As in the previous paper, we demonstrate the effects of polydispersity using a simple one-dimensional Y-dwarf KCl cloud formation scenario, and compare the results with the monodisperse case. Results. Our three-moment scheme provides a generalised framework applicable to any size distribution with a defined moment generation expression. In our test case, we show that the gamma distribution evolves with altitude, initially broad at the cloud base and narrowing at lower pressures. We find that differences between the gamma and monodisperse cloud structures can be significant, depending on the surface gravity of the atmosphere. Conclusions. We present a self-consistent framework for including the effects of polydispersity for sub-stellar microphysical cloud studies using the moment method.

The rapid move to remote work due to COVID-19 social distancing policies has slowed or stopped most in-person qualitative user research activities. The limitation on in-person activities has pushed many user researchers to consider how they can continue their research remotely and presents an opportunity for user research teams to (re)design their research processes for remote work. In this position statement, I outline prior work in remote qualitative user research methods and discuss how this work can help us to (re)design new tools, methods, and frameworks that can enable remote work. I then propose a set of research questions that can further our knowledge and abilities to conduct effective remote user research. With creative development, we can create remote research methods that afford new ways of understanding user experience today and build more environmentally conscious and accessible research practices for a future where remote user research is much more common.

We present a new dataset, Functional Map of the World (fMoW), which aims to inspire the development of machine learning models capable of predicting the functional purpose of buildings and land use from temporal sequences of satellite images and a rich set of metadata features. The metadata provided with each image enables reasoning about location, time, sun angles, physical sizes, and other features when making predictions about objects in the image. Our dataset consists of over 1 million images from over 200 countries. For each image, we provide at least one bounding box annotation containing one of 63 categories, including a "false detection" category. We present an analysis of the dataset along with baseline approaches that reason about metadata and temporal views. Our data, code, and pretrained models have been made publicly available.

We present a novel dataset covering seasonal and challenging perceptual conditions for autonomous driving. Among others, it enables research on visual odometry, global place recognition, and map-based re-localization tracking. The data was collected in different scenarios and under a wide variety of weather conditions and illuminations, including day and night. This resulted in more than 350 km of recordings in nine different environments ranging from multi-level parking garage over urban (including tunnels) to countryside and highway. We provide globally consistent reference poses with up-to centimeter accuracy obtained from the fusion of direct stereo visual-inertial odometry with RTK-GNSS. The full dataset is available at https://go.vision.in.tum.de/4seasons.

This paper presents teaching materials, particularly assignments and ideas for classroom activities, from a new course on large language models (LLMs) taught at Charles University. The assignments include experiments with LLM inference for weather report generation and machine translation. The classroom activities include class quizzes, focused research on downstream tasks and datasets, and an interactive "best paper" session aimed at reading and comprehension of research papers.

Time series research has gathered lots of interests in the last decade, especially for Time Series Classification (TSC) and Time Series Forecasting (TSF). Research in TSC has greatly benefited from the University of California Riverside and University of East Anglia (UCR/UEA) Time Series Archives. On the other hand, the advancement in Time Series Forecasting relies on time series forecasting competitions such as the Makridakis competitions, NN3 and NN5 Neural Network competitions, and a few Kaggle competitions. Each year, thousands of papers proposing new algorithms for TSC and TSF have utilized these benchmarking archives. These algorithms are designed for these specific problems, but may not be useful for tasks such as predicting the heart rate of a person using photoplethysmogram (PPG) and accelerometer data. We refer to this problem as Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER), where we are interested in a more general methodology of predicting a single continuous value, from univariate or multivariate time series. This prediction can be from the same time series or not directly related to the predictor time series and does not necessarily need to be a future value or depend heavily on recent values. To the best of our knowledge, research into TSER has received much less attention in the time series research community and there are no models developed for general time series extrinsic regression problems. Most models are developed for a specific problem. Therefore, we aim to motivate and support the research into TSER by introducing the first TSER benchmarking archive. This archive contains 19 datasets from different domains, with varying number of dimensions, unequal length dimensions, and missing values. In this paper, we introduce the datasets in this archive and did an initial benchmark on existing models.

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

Heatwaves pose significant health risks, particularly due to prolonged exposure to high summer temperatures. Vulnerable groups, especially pedestrians and cyclists on sun-exposed sidewalks, motivate the development of a route planning method that incorporates somatosensory temperature effects through shade ratio consideration. This paper is the first to introduce a pipeline that utilizes segmentation foundation models to extract shaded areas from high-resolution satellite images. These areas are then integrated into a multi-layered road map, enabling users to customize routes based on a balance between distance and shade exposure, thereby enhancing comfort and health during outdoor activities. Specifically, we construct a graph-based representation of the road map, where links indicate connectivity and are updated with shade ratio data for dynamic route planning. This system is already implemented online, with a video demonstration, and will be specifically adapted to assist travelers during the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris.

What is certain is that surface temperatures around the globe vary considerably, regardless of the time scales or underlying causes. Since 1850, we have observed an average increase in global surface temperature anomalies of 1.2^{circ} and a median increase of 0.7^{circ}: this overall difference masks significant regional differences. Nearly 60\% of the world's population now lives in urban areas, where vegetation cover has been significantly reduced, despite the paradoxical fact that vegetation plays an important role in regulating the thermal environment (eg through the shading provided by tree canopies). Continuous electrical and thermal measurements of trees in a Parisian grove (France) show and quantify that canopies are not the only protectors against heat waves; we must also consider the role of tree trunks. It is clear that these trunks probably regulate themselves, possibly by modulating the uptake of groundwater, whose geothermal stability is well established at a depth of just one meter. This quantitative observation should not be overlooked in the urban planning of our cities.

Besides the COVID-19 pandemic and political upheaval in the US, 2020 was also the year in which neural volume rendering exploded onto the scene, triggered by the impressive NeRF paper by Mildenhall et al. (2020). Both of us have tried to capture this excitement, Frank on a blog post (Dellaert, 2020) and Yen-Chen in a Github collection (Yen-Chen, 2020). This note is an annotated bibliography of the relevant papers, and we posted the associated bibtex file on the repository.

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

CONTEXT The R programming language has a huge and active community, especially in the area of statistical computing. Its interpreted nature allows for several interesting constructs, like the manipulation of functions at run-time, that hinder the static analysis of R programs. At the same time, there is a lack of existing research regarding how these features, or even the R language as a whole are used in practice. OBJECTIVE In this paper, we conduct a large-scale, static analysis of more than 50 million lines of real-world R programs and packages to identify their characteristics and the features that are actually used. Moreover, we compare the similarities and differences between the scripts of R users and the implementations of package authors. We provide insights for static analysis tools like the lintr package as well as potential interpreter optimizations and uncover areas for future research. METHOD We analyze 4230 R scripts submitted alongside publications and the sources of 19450 CRAN packages for over 350000 R files, collecting and summarizing quantitative information for features of interest. RESULTS We find a high frequency of name-based indexing operations, assignments, and loops, but a low frequency for most of R's reflective functions. Furthermore, we find neither testing functions nor many calls to R's foreign function interface (FFI) in the publication submissions. CONCLUSION R scripts and package sources differ, for example, in their size, the way they include other packages, and their usage of R's reflective capabilities. We provide features that are used frequently and should be prioritized by static analysis tools, like operator assignments, function calls, and certain reflective functions like load.

This paper presents optical night sky brightness measurements from the stratosphere using CCD images taken with the Super-pressure Balloon-borne Imaging Telescope (SuperBIT). The data used for estimating the backgrounds were obtained during three commissioning flights in 2016, 2018, and 2019 at altitudes ranging from 28 km to 34 km above sea level. For a valid comparison of the brightness measurements from the stratosphere with measurements from mountain-top ground-based observatories (taken at zenith on the darkest moonless night at high Galactic and high ecliptic latitudes), the stratospheric brightness levels were zodiacal light and diffuse Galactic light subtracted, and the airglow brightness was projected to zenith. The stratospheric brightness was measured around 5.5 hours, 3 hours, and 2 hours before the local sunrise time in 2016, 2018, and 2019 respectively. The B, V, R, and I brightness levels in 2016 were 2.7, 1.0, 1.1, and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The B, V, and R brightness levels in 2018 were 1.3, 1.0, and 1.3 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The U and I brightness levels in 2019 were 0.1 mag arcsec^{-2} brighter than the darkest ground-based measurements, whereas the B and V brightness levels were 0.8 and 0.6 mag arcsec^{-2} darker than the darkest ground-based measurements. The lower sky brightness levels, stable photometry, and lower atmospheric absorption make stratospheric observations from a balloon-borne platform a unique tool for astronomy. We plan to continue this work in a future mid-latitude long duration balloon flight with SuperBIT.

As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of resources needed to cope with the outgrowths of the virus. Therefore, this study attempts to incorporate the public discourse in the design of forecasting models particularly targeted for the steep-hill region of an ongoing wave. We propose a sentiment-involved topic-based latent variables search methodology for designing forecasting models from publicly available Twitter conversations. As a use case, we implement the proposed methodology on Australian COVID-19 daily cases and Twitter conversations generated within the country. Experimental results: (i) show the presence of latent social media variables that Granger-cause the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and (ii) confirm that those variables offer additional prediction capability to forecasting models. Further, the results show that the inclusion of social media variables introduces 48.83--51.38% improvements on RMSE over the baseline models. We also release the large-scale COVID-19 specific geotagged global tweets dataset, MegaGeoCOV, to the public anticipating that the geotagged data of this scale would aid in understanding the conversational dynamics of the pandemic through other spatial and temporal contexts.

In this article, we conduct data mining to discover the countries, universities and companies, produced or collaborated the most research on Covid-19 since the pandemic started. We present some interesting findings, but despite analysing all available records on COVID-19 from the Web of Science Core Collection, we failed to reach any significant conclusions on how the world responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, we increased our analysis to include all available data records on pandemics and epidemics from 1900 to 2020. We discover some interesting results on countries, universities and companies, that produced collaborated most the most in research on pandemic and epidemics. Then we compared the results with the analysing on COVID-19 data records. This has created some interesting findings that are explained and graphically visualised in the article.

Precise crop yield prediction is essential for improving agricultural practices and ensuring crop resilience in varying climates. Integrating weather data across the growing season, especially for different crop varieties, is crucial for understanding their adaptability in the face of climate change. In the MLCAS2021 Crop Yield Prediction Challenge, we utilized a dataset comprising 93,028 training records to forecast yields for 10,337 test records, covering 159 locations across 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces over 13 years (2003-2015). This dataset included details on 5,838 distinct genotypes and daily weather data for a 214-day growing season, enabling comprehensive analysis. As one of the winning teams, we developed two novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures: the CNN-DNN model, combining CNN and fully-connected networks, and the CNN-LSTM-DNN model, with an added LSTM layer for weather variables. Leveraging the Generalized Ensemble Method (GEM), we determined optimal model weights, resulting in superior performance compared to baseline models. The GEM model achieved lower RMSE (5.55% to 39.88%), reduced MAE (5.34% to 43.76%), and higher correlation coefficients (1.1% to 10.79%) when evaluated on test data. We applied the CNN-DNN model to identify top-performing genotypes for various locations and weather conditions, aiding genotype selection based on weather variables. Our data-driven approach is valuable for scenarios with limited testing years. Additionally, a feature importance analysis using RMSE change highlighted the significance of location, MG, year, and genotype, along with the importance of weather variables MDNI and AP.

California is a global leader in agricultural production, contributing 12.5% of the United States total output and ranking as the fifth-largest food and cotton supplier in the world. Despite the availability of extensive historical yield data from the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, accurate and timely crop yield forecasting remains a challenge due to the complex interplay of environmental, climatic, and soil-related factors. In this study, we introduce a comprehensive crop yield benchmark dataset covering over 70 crops across all California counties from 2008 to 2022. The benchmark integrates diverse data sources, including Landsat satellite imagery, daily climate records, monthly evapotranspiration, and high-resolution soil properties. To effectively learn from these heterogeneous inputs, we develop a multi-modal deep learning model tailored for county-level, crop-specific yield forecasting. The model employs stratified feature extraction and a timeseries encoder to capture spatial and temporal dynamics during the growing season. Static inputs such as soil characteristics and crop identity inform long-term variability. Our approach achieves an overall R2 score of 0.76 across all crops of unseen test dataset, highlighting strong predictive performance across California diverse agricultural regions. This benchmark and modeling framework offer a valuable foundation for advancing agricultural forecasting, climate adaptation, and precision farming. The full dataset and codebase are publicly available at our GitHub repository.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant effort has gone into developing ML-driven epidemic forecasting techniques. However, benchmarks do not exist to claim if a new AI/ML technique is better than the existing ones. The "covid-forecast-hub" is a collection of more than 30 teams, including us, that submit their forecasts weekly to the CDC. It is not possible to declare whether one method is better than the other using those forecasts because each team's submission may correspond to different techniques over the period and involve human interventions as the teams are continuously changing/tuning their approach. Such forecasts may be considered "human-expert" forecasts and do not qualify as AI/ML approaches, although they can be used as an indicator of human expert performance. We are interested in supporting AI/ML research in epidemic forecasting which can lead to scalable forecasting without human intervention. Which modeling technique, learning strategy, and data pre-processing technique work well for epidemic forecasting is still an open problem. To help advance the state-of-the-art AI/ML applied to epidemiology, a benchmark with a collection of performance points is needed and the current "state-of-the-art" techniques need to be identified. We propose EpiBench a platform consisting of community-driven benchmarks for AI/ML applied to epidemic forecasting to standardize the challenge with a uniform evaluation protocol. In this paper, we introduce a prototype of EpiBench which is currently running and accepting submissions for the task of forecasting COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US states and We demonstrate that we can utilize the prototype to develop an ensemble relying on fully automated epidemic forecasts (no human intervention) that reaches human-expert level ensemble currently being used by the CDC.

With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of processing, visualizing, modeling, and explaining this data. To showcase how this challenge can be met, here we train a convolutional long short-term memory-based architecture on the novel DeepExtremeCubes dataset. DeepExtremeCubes includes around 40,000 long-term Sentinel-2 minicubes (January 2016-October 2022) worldwide, along with labeled extreme events, meteorological data, vegetation land cover, and topography map, sampled from locations affected by extreme climate events and surrounding areas. When predicting future reflectances and vegetation impacts through kernel normalized difference vegetation index, the model achieved an R^2 score of 0.9055 in the test set. Explainable artificial intelligence was used to analyze the model's predictions during the October 2020 Central South America compound heatwave and drought event. We chose the same area exactly one year before the event as counterfactual, finding that the average temperature and surface pressure are generally the best predictors under normal conditions. In contrast, minimum anomalies of evaporation and surface latent heat flux take the lead during the event. A change of regime is also observed in the attributions before the event, which might help assess how long the event was brewing before happening. The code to replicate all experiments and figures in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/DeepExtremes/txyXAI

Time series data is fundamental to decision-making in many crucial domains including healthcare, finance, and environmental science. However, analyzing this data often requires incorporating unstructured contextual information, answering domain-specific questions, and generating natural language explanations -- capabilities that traditional time series models lack due to their inability to process text. While Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at contextual reasoning and knowledge integration, they struggle with numerical time series due to inefficient text-based representations and limited exposure to temporal data during pretraining. We address this gap by augmenting an LLM with specialized time series perception through a patch-based encoder-decoder architecture. We train this Time Series-augmented LLM (TsLLM) on a large corpus of over 2 million interleaved time series and text examples spanning diverse analysis tasks: forecasting with contextual information, time series question-answering, pattern explanation, classification with natural language outputs, and report generation. This training enables TsLLM to leverage both its language understanding and newly acquired temporal reasoning capabilities. While not designed to surpass specialized models on traditional benchmarks, TsLLM demonstrates strong performance on tasks requiring the integration of time series analysis with natural language -- capabilities that existing approaches cannot provide. Our work establishes a new paradigm for time series analysis that bridges numerical computation and natural language understanding, democratizing access to sophisticated temporal reasoning through natural language interaction.

We describe new datasets for studying generalization from easy to hard examples.

We present the data release and data reduction process for the Epoch 1 NIRCam observations for the Cosmic Evolution Early Release Science Survey (CEERS). These data consist of NIRCam imaging in six broadband filters (F115W, F150W, F200W, F277W, F356W and F444W) and one medium band filter (F410M) over four pointings, obtained in parallel with primary CEERS MIRI observations (Yang et al. in prep). We reduced the NIRCam imaging with the JWST Calibration Pipeline, with custom modifications and reduction steps designed to address additional features and challenges with the data. Here we provide a detailed description of each step in our reduction and a discussion of future expected improvements. Our reduction process includes corrections for known pre-launch issues such as 1/f noise, as well as in-flight issues including snowballs, wisps, and astrometric alignment. Many of our custom reduction processes were first developed with pre-launch simulated NIRCam imaging over the full 10 CEERS NIRCam pointings. We present a description of the creation and reduction of this simulated dataset in the Appendix. We provide mosaics of the real images in a public release, as well as our reduction scripts with detailed explanations to allow users to reproduce our final data products. These represent one of the first official public datasets released from the Directors Discretionary Early Release Science (DD-ERS) program.

As the production of and reliance on datasets to produce automated decision-making systems (ADS) increases, so does the need for processes for evaluating and interrogating the underlying data. After launching the Dataset Nutrition Label in 2018, the Data Nutrition Project has made significant updates to the design and purpose of the Label, and is launching an updated Label in late 2020, which is previewed in this paper. The new Label includes context-specific Use Cases &Alerts presented through an updated design and user interface targeted towards the data scientist profile. This paper discusses the harm and bias from underlying training data that the Label is intended to mitigate, the current state of the work including new datasets being labeled, new and existing challenges, and further directions of the work, as well as Figures previewing the new label.

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster readiness, reduced economic risk, and improved policy-making amidst climate change. Yet, S2S prediction remains challenging due to the chaotic nature of the system. At present, existing benchmarks for weather and climate applications, tend to (1) have shorter forecasting range of up-to 14 days, (2) do not include a wide range of operational baseline forecasts, and (3) lack physics-based constraints for explainability. Thus, we propose ChaosBench, a large-scale, multi-channel, physics-based benchmark for S2S prediction. ChaosBench has over 460K frames of real-world observations and simulations, each with 60 variable-channels and spanning for up-to 45 years. We also propose several physics-based, in addition to vision-based metrics, that enables for a more physically-consistent model. Furthermore, we include a diverse set of physics-based forecasts from 4 national weather agencies as baselines to our data-driven counterpart. We establish two tasks that vary in complexity: full and sparse dynamics prediction. Our benchmark is one of the first to perform large-scale evaluation on existing models including PanguWeather, FourCastNetV2, GraphCast, and ClimaX, and finds methods originally developed for weather-scale applications fails on S2S task. We release our benchmark code and datasets at https://leap-stc.github.io/ChaosBench.

The World Health Organization added Disease X to their shortlist of blueprint priority diseases to represent a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic. During different virus outbreaks of the past, such as COVID-19, Influenza, Lyme Disease, and Zika virus, researchers from various disciplines utilized Google Trends to mine multimodal components of web behavior to study, investigate, and analyze the global awareness, preparedness, and response associated with these respective virus outbreaks. As the world prepares for Disease X, a dataset on web behavior related to Disease X would be crucial to contribute towards the timely advancement of research in this field. Furthermore, none of the prior works in this field have focused on the development of a dataset to compile relevant web behavior data, which would help to prepare for Disease X. To address these research challenges, this work presents a dataset of web behavior related to Disease X, which emerged from different geographic regions of the world, between February 2018 and August 2023. Specifically, this dataset presents the search interests related to Disease X from 94 geographic regions. The dataset was developed by collecting data using Google Trends. The relevant search interests for all these regions for each month in this time range are available in this dataset. This paper also discusses the compliance of this dataset with the FAIR principles of scientific data management. Finally, an analysis of this dataset is presented to uphold the applicability, relevance, and usefulness of this dataset for the investigation of different research questions in the interrelated fields of Big Data, Data Mining, Healthcare, Epidemiology, and Data Analysis with a specific focus on Disease X.

We classify seven months' worth of Belgian COVID-related Tweets using multilingual BERT and relate them to their governments' COVID measures. We classify Tweets by their stated opinion on Belgian government curfew measures (too strict, ok, too loose). We examine the change in topics discussed and views expressed over time and in reference to dates of related events such as implementation of new measures or COVID-19 related announcements in the media.

People rely on news to know what is happening around the world and inform their daily lives. In today's world, when the proliferation of fake news is rampant, having a large-scale and high-quality source of authentic news articles with the published category information is valuable to learning authentic news' Natural Language syntax and semantics. As part of this work, we present a News Category Dataset that contains around 210k news headlines from the year 2012 to 2022 obtained from HuffPost, along with useful metadata to enable various NLP tasks. In this paper, we also produce some novel insights from the dataset and describe various existing and potential applications of our dataset.

Natural disasters, such as floods, tornadoes, or wildfires, are increasingly pervasive as the Earth undergoes global warming. It is difficult to predict when and where an incident will occur, so timely emergency response is critical to saving the lives of those endangered by destructive events. Fortunately, technology can play a role in these situations. Social media posts can be used as a low-latency data source to understand the progression and aftermath of a disaster, yet parsing this data is tedious without automated methods. Prior work has mostly focused on text-based filtering, yet image and video-based filtering remains largely unexplored. In this work, we present the Incidents1M Dataset, a large-scale multi-label dataset which contains 977,088 images, with 43 incident and 49 place categories. We provide details of the dataset construction, statistics and potential biases; introduce and train a model for incident detection; and perform image-filtering experiments on millions of images on Flickr and Twitter. We also present some applications on incident analysis to encourage and enable future work in computer vision for humanitarian aid. Code, data, and models are available at http://incidentsdataset.csail.mit.edu.

The Copernicus Regional Reanalysis for Europe, CERRA, is a high-resolution regional reanalysis dataset for the European domain. In recent years it has shown significant utility across various climate-related tasks, ranging from forecasting and climate change research to renewable energy prediction, resource management, air quality risk assessment, and the forecasting of rare events, among others. Unfortunately, the availability of CERRA is lagging two years behind the current date, due to constraints in acquiring the requisite external data and the intensive computational demands inherent in its generation. As a solution, this paper introduces a novel method using diffusion models to approximate CERRA downscaling in a data-driven manner, without additional informations. By leveraging the lower resolution ERA5 dataset, which provides boundary conditions for CERRA, we approach this as a super-resolution task. Focusing on wind speed around Italy, our model, trained on existing CERRA data, shows promising results, closely mirroring original CERRA data. Validation with in-situ observations further confirms the model's accuracy in approximating ground measurements.

Reducing traffic accidents is an important public safety challenge. However, the majority of studies on traffic accident analysis and prediction have used small-scale datasets with limited coverage, which limits their impact and applicability; and existing large-scale datasets are either private, old, or do not include important contextual information such as environmental stimuli (weather, points-of-interest, etc.). In order to help the research community address these shortcomings we have - through a comprehensive process of data collection, integration, and augmentation - created a large-scale publicly available database of accident information named US-Accidents. US-Accidents currently contains data about 2.25 million instances of traffic accidents that took place within the contiguous United States, and over the last three years. Each accident record consists of a variety of intrinsic and contextual attributes such as location, time, natural language description, weather, period-of-day, and points-of-interest. We present this dataset in this paper, along with a wide range of insights gleaned from this dataset with respect to the spatiotemporal characteristics of accidents. The dataset is publicly available at https://smoosavi.org/datasets/us_accidents.

The stock market is a network which provides a platform for almost all major economic transactions. While investing in the stock market is a good idea, investing in individual stocks may not be, especially for the casual investor. Smart stock-picking requires in-depth research and plenty of dedication. Predicting this stock value offers enormous arbitrage profit opportunities. This attractiveness of finding a solution has prompted researchers to find a way past problems like volatility, seasonality, and dependence on time. This paper surveys recent literature in the domain of natural language processing and machine learning techniques used to predict stock market movements. The main contributions of this paper include the sophisticated categorizations of many recent articles and the illustration of the recent trends of research in stock market prediction and its related areas.

The Boreas dataset was collected by driving a repeated route over the course of one year, resulting in stark seasonal variations and adverse weather conditions such as rain and falling snow. In total, the Boreas dataset includes over 350km of driving data featuring a 128-channel Velodyne Alpha Prime lidar, a 360^circ Navtech CIR304-H scanning radar, a 5MP FLIR Blackfly S camera, and centimetre-accurate post-processed ground truth poses. Our dataset will support live leaderboards for odometry, metric localization, and 3D object detection. The dataset and development kit are available at https://www.boreas.utias.utoronto.ca

Code completion aims at speeding up code writing by recommending to developers the next tokens they are likely to type. Deep Learning (DL) models pushed the boundaries of code completion by redefining what these coding assistants can do: We moved from predicting few code tokens to automatically generating entire functions. One important factor impacting the performance of DL-based code completion techniques is the context provided as input. With "context" we refer to what the model knows about the code to complete. In a simple scenario, the DL model might be fed with a partially implemented function to complete. In this case, the context is represented by the incomplete function and, based on it, the model must generate a prediction. It is however possible to expand such a context to include additional information, like the whole source code file containing the function to complete, which could be useful to boost the prediction performance. In this work, we present an empirical study investigating how the performance of a DL-based code completion technique is affected by different contexts. We experiment with 8 types of contexts and their combinations. These contexts include: (i) coding contexts, featuring information extracted from the code base in which the code completion is invoked (e.g., code components structurally related to the one to "complete"); (ii) process context, with information aimed at depicting the current status of the project in which a code completion task is triggered (e.g., a textual representation of open issues relevant for the code to complete); and (iii) developer contexts, capturing information about the developer invoking the code completion (e.g., the APIs frequently used). Our results show that additional contextual information can benefit the performance of DL-based code completion, with relative improvements up to +22% in terms of correct predictions.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate partial forecasting competence across social, political, and economic events. Yet, their predictive ability varies sharply with domain structure and prompt framing. We investigate how forecasting performance varies with different model families on real-world questions about events that happened beyond the model cutoff date. We analyze how context, question type, and external knowledge affect accuracy and calibration, and how adding factual news context modifies belief formation and failure modes. Our results show that forecasting ability is highly variable as it depends on what, and how, we ask.