Daily Papers

The scarcity of high-quality, logically sound data is a critical bottleneck for advancing the mathematical reasoning of Large Language Models (LLMs). Our work confronts this challenge by turning decades of automated theorem proving research into a scalable data engine. Rather than relying on error-prone LLMs or complex proof-assistant syntax like Lean and Isabelle, our framework leverages E-prover's saturation capabilities on the vast TPTP axiom library to derive a massive, guaranteed-valid corpus of theorems. Our pipeline is principled and simple: saturate axioms, filter for "interesting" theorems, and generate tasks. With no LLMs in the loop, we eliminate factual errors by construction. This purely symbolic data is then transformed into three difficulty-controlled challenges: entailment verification, premise selection, and proof reconstruction. Our zero-shot experiments on frontier models reveal a clear weakness: performance collapses on tasks requiring deep, structural reasoning. Our framework provides both the diagnostic tool to measure this gap and a scalable source of symbolic training data to address it. We make the code and data publicly available. https://github.com/sileod/reasoning_core https://hf.co/datasets/reasoning-core/rc1

Chart understanding presents a unique challenge for large vision-language models (LVLMs), as it requires the integration of sophisticated textual and visual reasoning capabilities. However, current LVLMs exhibit a notable imbalance between these skills, falling short on visual reasoning that is difficult to perform in text. We conduct a case study using a synthetic dataset solvable only through visual reasoning and show that model performance degrades significantly with increasing visual complexity, while human performance remains robust. We then introduce ChartMuseum, a new Chart Question Answering (QA) benchmark containing 1,162 expert-annotated questions spanning multiple reasoning types, curated from real-world charts across 184 sources, specifically built to evaluate complex visual and textual reasoning. Unlike prior chart understanding benchmarks -- where frontier models perform similarly and near saturation -- our benchmark exposes a substantial gap between model and human performance, while effectively differentiating model capabilities: although humans achieve 93% accuracy, the best-performing model Gemini-2.5-Pro attains only 63.0%, and the leading open-source LVLM Qwen2.5-VL-72B-Instruct achieves only 38.5%. Moreover, on questions requiring primarily visual reasoning, all models experience a 35%-55% performance drop from text-reasoning-heavy question performance. Lastly, our qualitative error analysis reveals specific categories of visual reasoning that are challenging for current LVLMs.

For deploying foundation models, practitioners increasingly need prescriptive scaling laws: given a pre training compute budget, what downstream accuracy is attainable with contemporary post training practice, and how stable is that mapping as the field evolves? Using large scale observational evaluations with 5k observational and 2k newly sampled data on model performance, we estimate capability boundaries, high conditional quantiles of benchmark scores as a function of log pre training FLOPs, via smoothed quantile regression with a monotone, saturating sigmoid parameterization. We validate the temporal reliability by fitting on earlier model generations and evaluating on later releases. Across various tasks, the estimated boundaries are mostly stable, with the exception of math reasoning that exhibits a consistently advancing boundary over time. We then extend our approach to analyze task dependent saturation and to probe contamination related shifts on math reasoning tasks. Finally, we introduce an efficient algorithm that recovers near full data frontiers using roughly 20% of evaluation budget. Together, our work releases the Proteus 2k, the latest model performance evaluation dataset, and introduces a practical methodology for translating compute budgets into reliable performance expectations and for monitoring when capability boundaries shift across time.

Mathematical capabilities were previously believed to emerge in common language models only at a very large scale or require extensive math-related pre-training. This paper shows that the LLaMA-2 7B model with common pre-training already exhibits strong mathematical abilities, as evidenced by its impressive accuracy of 97.7% and 72.0% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively, when selecting the best response from 256 random generations. The primary issue with the current base model is the difficulty in consistently eliciting its inherent mathematical capabilities. Notably, the accuracy for the first answer drops to 49.5% and 7.9% on the GSM8K and MATH benchmarks, respectively. We find that simply scaling up the SFT data can significantly enhance the reliability of generating correct answers. However, the potential for extensive scaling is constrained by the scarcity of publicly available math questions. To overcome this limitation, we employ synthetic data, which proves to be nearly as effective as real data and shows no clear saturation when scaled up to approximately one million samples. This straightforward approach achieves an accuracy of 82.6% on GSM8K and 40.6% on MATH using LLaMA-2 7B models, surpassing previous models by 14.2% and 20.8%, respectively. We also provide insights into scaling behaviors across different reasoning complexities and error types.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in real-world applications that demand complex reasoning. To track progress, robust benchmarks are required to evaluate their capabilities beyond superficial pattern recognition. However, current LLM reasoning benchmarks often face challenges such as insufficient interpretability, performance saturation or data contamination. To address these challenges, we introduce GAMEBoT, a gaming arena designed for rigorous and transparent assessment of LLM reasoning capabilities. GAMEBoT decomposes complex reasoning in games into predefined modular subproblems. This decomposition allows us to design a suite of Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompts that leverage domain knowledge to guide LLMs in addressing these subproblems before action selection. Furthermore, we develop a suite of rule-based algorithms to generate ground truth for these subproblems, enabling rigorous validation of the LLMs' intermediate reasoning steps. This approach facilitates evaluation of both the quality of final actions and the accuracy of the underlying reasoning process. GAMEBoT also naturally alleviates the risk of data contamination through dynamic games and head-to-head LLM competitions. We benchmark 17 prominent LLMs across eight games, encompassing various strategic abilities and game characteristics. Our results suggest that GAMEBoT presents a significant challenge, even when LLMs are provided with detailed CoT prompts. Project page: https://visual-ai.github.io/gamebot

The foundational pretraining phase determines a model's capability ceiling, as post-training struggles to overcome capability foundations established during pretraining, yet it remains critically under-explored. This stems from a structural paradox: organizations with computational resources operate under commercial pressures that inhibit transparent disclosure, while academic institutions possess research freedom but lack pretraining-scale computational resources. daVinci-LLM occupies this unexplored intersection, combining industrial-scale resources with full research freedom to advance the science of pretraining. We adopt a fully-open paradigm that treats openness as scientific methodology, releasing complete data processing pipelines, full training processes, and systematic exploration results. Recognizing that the field lacks systematic methodology for data processing, we employ the Data Darwinism framework, a principled L0-L9 taxonomy from filtering to synthesis. We train a 3B-parameter model from random initialization across 8T tokens using a two-stage adaptive curriculum that progressively shifts from foundational capabilities to reasoning-intensive enhancement. Through 200+ controlled ablations, we establish that: processing depth systematically enhances capabilities, establishing it as a critical dimension alongside volume scaling; different domains exhibit distinct saturation dynamics, necessitating adaptive strategies from proportion adjustments to format shifts; compositional balance enables targeted intensification while preventing performance collapse; how evaluation protocol choices shape our understanding of pretraining progress. By releasing the complete exploration process, we enable the community to build upon our findings and systematic methodologies to form accumulative scientific knowledge in pretraining.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are rapidly surpassing human knowledge in many domains. While improving these models traditionally relies on costly human data, recent self-rewarding mechanisms (Yuan et al., 2024) have shown that LLMs can improve by judging their own responses instead of relying on human labelers. However, existing methods have primarily focused on improving model responses rather than judgment capabilities, resulting in rapid saturation during iterative training. To address this issue, we introduce a novel Meta-Rewarding step to the self-improvement process, where the model judges its own judgements and uses that feedback to refine its judgment skills. Surprisingly, this unsupervised approach improves the model's ability to judge {\em and} follow instructions, as demonstrated by a win rate improvement of Llama-3-8B-Instruct from 22.9% to 39.4% on AlpacaEval 2, and 20.6% to 29.1% on Arena-Hard. These results strongly suggest the potential for self-improving models without human supervision.

Rigorous and reproducible evaluation is critical for assessing the state of the art and for guiding scientific advances in Artificial Intelligence. Evaluation is challenging in practice due to several reasons, including benchmark saturation, lack of transparency in methods used for measurement, development challenges in extracting measurements for generative tasks, and, more generally, the extensive number of capabilities required for a well-rounded comparison across models. We make three contributions to alleviate the above challenges. First, we present Eureka, an open-source framework for standardizing evaluations of large foundation models beyond single-score reporting and rankings. Second, we introduce Eureka-Bench as an extensible collection of benchmarks testing capabilities that (i) are still challenging for state-of-the-art models and (ii) represent fundamental but overlooked language and multimodal capabilities. The inherent space for improvement in non-saturated benchmarks enables us to discover meaningful differences between models at a capability level. Third, using Eureka, we conduct an analysis of 12 state-of-the-art models, providing in-depth insights into failure understanding and model comparison, which can be leveraged to plan targeted improvements. In contrast to recent trends in reports and leaderboards showing absolute rankings and claims for one model or another to be the best, our analysis shows that there is no such best model. Different models have different strengths, but there are models that appear more often than others as best performers for some capabilities. Despite the recent improvements, current models still struggle with several fundamental capabilities including detailed image understanding, benefiting from multimodal input when available rather than fully relying on language, factuality and grounding for information retrieval, and over refusals.

Recently, GPT-4o has garnered significant attention for its strong performance in image generation, yet open-source models still lag behind. Several studies have explored distilling image data from GPT-4o to enhance open-source models, achieving notable progress. However, a key question remains: given that real-world image datasets already constitute a natural source of high-quality data, why should we use GPT-4o-generated synthetic data? In this work, we identify two key advantages of synthetic images. First, they can complement rare scenarios in real-world datasets, such as surreal fantasy or multi-reference image generation, which frequently occur in user queries. Second, they provide clean and controllable supervision. Real-world data often contains complex background noise and inherent misalignment between text descriptions and image content, whereas synthetic images offer pure backgrounds and long-tailed supervision signals, facilitating more accurate text-to-image alignment. Building on these insights, we introduce Echo-4o-Image, a 180K-scale synthetic dataset generated by GPT-4o, harnessing the power of synthetic image data to address blind spots in real-world coverage. Using this dataset, we fine-tune the unified multimodal generation baseline Bagel to obtain Echo-4o. In addition, we propose two new evaluation benchmarks for a more accurate and challenging assessment of image generation capabilities: GenEval++, which increases instruction complexity to mitigate score saturation, and Imagine-Bench, which focuses on evaluating both the understanding and generation of imaginative content. Echo-4o demonstrates strong performance across standard benchmarks. Moreover, applying Echo-4o-Image to other foundation models (e.g., OmniGen2, BLIP3-o) yields consistent performance gains across multiple metrics, highlighting the datasets strong transferability.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated significant advancements in reasoning and agent-based problem-solving, current evaluation methodologies fail to adequately assess their capabilities: existing benchmarks either rely on closed-ended questions prone to saturation and memorization, or subjective comparisons that lack consistency and rigor. In this work, we introduce HeuriGym, an agentic framework designed for evaluating heuristic algorithms generated by LLMs for combinatorial optimization problems, characterized by clearly defined objectives and expansive solution spaces. HeuriGym empowers LLMs to propose heuristics, receive evaluative feedback via code execution, and iteratively refine their solutions. We evaluate nine state-of-the-art models on nine problems across domains such as computer systems, logistics, and biology, exposing persistent limitations in tool use, planning, and adaptive reasoning. To quantify performance, we propose the Quality-Yield Index (QYI), a metric that captures both solution pass rate and quality. Even top models like GPT-o4-mini-high and Gemini-2.5-Pro attain QYI scores of only 0.6, well below the expert baseline of 1. Our open-source benchmark aims to guide the development of LLMs toward more effective and realistic problem-solving in scientific and engineering domains.

Large language models have been widely adopted across different tasks, but their auto-regressive generation nature often leads to inefficient resource utilization during inference. While batching is commonly used to increase throughput, performance gains plateau beyond a certain batch size, especially with smaller models, a phenomenon that existing literature typically explains as a shift to the compute-bound regime. In this paper, through an in-depth GPU-level analysis, we reveal that large-batch inference remains memory-bound, with most GPU compute capabilities underutilized due to DRAM bandwidth saturation as the primary bottleneck. To address this, we propose a Batching Configuration Advisor (BCA) that optimizes memory allocation, reducing GPU memory requirements with minimal impact on throughput. The freed memory and underutilized GPU compute capabilities can then be leveraged by concurrent workloads. Specifically, we use model replication to improve serving throughput and GPU utilization. Our findings challenge conventional assumptions about LLM inference, offering new insights and practical strategies for improving resource utilization, particularly for smaller language models.

Recent developments in large-scale machine learning suggest that by scaling up data, model size and training time properly, one might observe that improvements in pre-training would transfer favorably to most downstream tasks. In this work, we systematically study this phenomena and establish that, as we increase the upstream accuracy, the performance of downstream tasks saturates. In particular, we investigate more than 4800 experiments on Vision Transformers, MLP-Mixers and ResNets with number of parameters ranging from ten million to ten billion, trained on the largest scale of available image data (JFT, ImageNet21K) and evaluated on more than 20 downstream image recognition tasks. We propose a model for downstream performance that reflects the saturation phenomena and captures the nonlinear relationship in performance of upstream and downstream tasks. Delving deeper to understand the reasons that give rise to these phenomena, we show that the saturation behavior we observe is closely related to the way that representations evolve through the layers of the models. We showcase an even more extreme scenario where performance on upstream and downstream are at odds with each other. That is, to have a better downstream performance, we need to hurt upstream accuracy.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

Recent advances in language modeling consist in pretraining highly parameterized neural networks on extremely large web-mined text corpora. Training and inference with such models can be costly in practice, which incentivizes the use of smaller counterparts. However, it has been observed that smaller models can suffer from saturation, characterized as a drop in performance at some advanced point in training followed by a plateau. In this paper, we find that such saturation can be explained by a mismatch between the hidden dimension of smaller models and the high rank of the target contextual probability distribution. This mismatch affects the performance of the linear prediction head used in such models through the well-known softmax bottleneck phenomenon. We measure the effect of the softmax bottleneck in various settings and find that models based on less than 1000 hidden dimensions tend to adopt degenerate latent representations in late pretraining, which leads to reduced evaluation performance.

In soil physics, saturated hydraulic conductivity, K_sat, is among the most important hydraulic properties with broad applications to modeling flow and transport under saturated conditions. Its accurate estimation, however, is challenging and requires precise characterization of pore space. In this study, we applied concepts of critical path analysis (CPA) to estimate K_sat from soil water retention curve. To evaluate the CPA, we used 313 undisturbed soil samples from the Kansas Mesonet database in which the value of K_sat spans over five orders of magnitude in variation. We found that the CPA estimated K_sat reasonably well with root mean square log-transformed error RMSLE = 0.87. For most samples, the predicted values were around the 1:1 line within a factor of 10 of the measurements. We also estimated K_sat using five other methods but none was more accurate than the CPA.

Software engineering (SWE) has recently emerged as a crucial testbed for next-generation LLM agents, demanding inherent capabilities in two critical dimensions: sustained iterative problem-solving (e.g., >50 interaction rounds) and long-context dependency resolution (e.g., >32k tokens). However, the data curation process in SWE remains notoriously time-consuming, as it heavily relies on manual annotation for code file filtering and the setup of dedicated runtime environments to execute and validate unit tests. Consequently, most existing datasets are limited to only a few thousand GitHub-sourced instances. To this end, we propose an incremental, automated data-curation pipeline that systematically scales both the volume and diversity of SWE datasets. Our dataset comprises 10,169 real-world Python task instances from 2,531 distinct GitHub repositories, each accompanied by a task specified in natural language and a dedicated runtime-environment image for automated unit-test validation. We have carefully curated over 8,000 successfully runtime-validated training trajectories from our proposed SWE dataset. When fine-tuning the Skywork-SWE model on these trajectories, we uncover a striking data scaling phenomenon: the trained model's performance for software engineering capabilities in LLMs continues to improve as the data size increases, showing no signs of saturation. Notably, our Skywork-SWE model achieves 38.0% pass@1 accuracy on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark without using verifiers or multiple rollouts, establishing a new state-of-the-art (SOTA) among the Qwen2.5-Coder-32B-based LLMs built on the OpenHands agent framework. Furthermore, with the incorporation of test-time scaling techniques, the performance further improves to 47.0% accuracy, surpassing the previous SOTA results for sub-32B parameter models. We release the Skywork-SWE-32B model checkpoint to accelerate future research.

Language model (LM) benchmarking faces several challenges: comprehensive evaluations are costly, benchmarks often fail to measure the intended capabilities, and evaluation quality can degrade due to labeling errors and benchmark saturation. Although various strategies have been proposed to mitigate these issues, they tend to address individual aspects in isolation, neglecting broader questions about overall evaluation quality. Here, we introduce Fluid Benchmarking, a new evaluation approach that advances LM benchmarking across multiple dimensions. Inspired by psychometrics, Fluid Benchmarking is based on the insight that the relative value of benchmark items depends on an LM's capability level, suggesting that evaluation should adapt to each LM. Methodologically, Fluid Benchmarking estimates an item response model based on existing LM evaluation results and uses the inferred quantities to select evaluation items dynamically, similar to computerized adaptive testing in education. In our experiments, we compare Fluid Benchmarking against the common practice of random item sampling as well as more sophisticated baselines, including alternative methods grounded in item response theory. We examine four dimensions -- efficiency, validity, variance, and saturation -- and find that Fluid Benchmarking achieves superior performance in all of them (e.g., higher validity and less variance on MMLU with fifty times fewer items). Our analysis shows that the two components of Fluid Benchmarking have distinct effects: item response theory, used to map performance into a latent ability space, increases validity, while dynamic item selection reduces variance. Overall, our results suggest that LM benchmarking can be substantially improved by moving beyond static evaluation.

Transformers have become the go-to architecture for language and vision tasks, yet their theoretical properties, especially memorization capacity, remain elusive. This paper investigates the memorization abilities of multi-head attention mechanisms, examining how many example sequences they can memorize, as a function of the number of heads and sequence length. Motivated by experimental findings on vision transformers, we introduce novel assumptions about the linear independence of input data, distinct from the commonly used general-position assumption. Under these assumptions, we demonstrate that an attention layer with H heads, dimension d, and context size n < d, featuring Theta(Hd^2) parameters, can memorize Omega(Hn) examples. Our analysis sheds light on how different attention heads handle various example sequences, aided by the softmax operator's saturation property. We validate our findings through experiments on synthetic data.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have set themselves apart with their exceptional performance in complex language modelling tasks. However, these models are also known for their significant computational and storage requirements, primarily due to the quadratic computation complexity of softmax attention. To mitigate this issue, linear attention has been designed to reduce the quadratic space-time complexity that is inherent in standard transformers. In this work, we embarked on a comprehensive exploration of three key components that substantially impact the performance of the Gated Linear Attention module: feature maps, normalization, and the gating mechanism. We developed a feature mapping function to address some crucial issues that previous suggestions overlooked. Then we offered further rationale for the integration of normalization layers to stabilize the training process. Moreover, we explored the saturation phenomenon of the gating mechanism and augmented it with a refining module. We conducted extensive experiments and showed our architecture outperforms previous Gated Linear Attention mechanisms in extensive tasks including training from scratch and post-linearization with continual pre-training.

As post-training optimization becomes central to improving large language models, we observe a persistent saturation bottleneck: once models grow highly confident, further training yields diminishing returns. While existing methods continue to reinforce target predictions, we find that informative supervision signals remain latent in models' own historical weak states. Motivated by this observation, we propose WMSS (Weak Agents Can Make Strong Agents Stronger), a post-training paradigm that leverages weak checkpoints to guide continued optimization. By identifying recoverable learning gaps via entropy dynamics and reinforcing them through compensatory learning, WMSS enables strong agents to improve beyond conventional post-training saturation. Experiments on mathematical reasoning and code generation datasets show that agents trained with our approach achieve effective performance improvements, while incurring zero additional inference cost.

Pre-trained Transformers often exhibit over-confidence in source patterns and difficulty in forming new target-domain patterns during fine-tuning. We formalize the mechanism of output saturation leading to gradient suppression through standard cross-entropy and softmax analysis, showing that gradient suppression at inflection layers confines adaptation to high-level recombination of existing features while preventing low-level reconstruction. We introduce a set of layer-wise diagnostic metrics -- attention entropy (saturation proxy), activation gradient norm, parameter gradient norm, and Delta-CKA under a shared PCA basis -- to identify inflection layers characterized by both low attention entropy and steep gradient decay. Building on these findings, we propose a diagnose-first, inject-light fine-tuning strategy: selectively inserting LoRA adapters at inflection layers to restore suppressed backward signals with minimal parameter overhead. Experiments on BERT-base transfer from SST-2 to Rotten Tomatoes under under-trained and over-trained source regimes reveal that over-trained initialization benefits from inflection-layer LoRA injection, while under-trained initialization suffers performance degradation. When base features are strong, unblocking inflection layers facilitates high-level compositional adaptation; when base features are weak, full-pathway unblocking is required for low-level reconstruction, as supported by joint analysis of layer-wise activation gradients and Delta-CKA dynamics.

Over the past few years, softmax and SGD have become a commonly used component and the default training strategy in CNN frameworks, respectively. However, when optimizing CNNs with SGD, the saturation behavior behind softmax always gives us an illusion of training well and then is omitted. In this paper, we first emphasize that the early saturation behavior of softmax will impede the exploration of SGD, which sometimes is a reason for model converging at a bad local-minima, then propose Noisy Softmax to mitigating this early saturation issue by injecting annealed noise in softmax during each iteration. This operation based on noise injection aims at postponing the early saturation and further bringing continuous gradients propagation so as to significantly encourage SGD solver to be more exploratory and help to find a better local-minima. This paper empirically verifies the superiority of the early softmax desaturation, and our method indeed improves the generalization ability of CNN model by regularization. We experimentally find that this early desaturation helps optimization in many tasks, yielding state-of-the-art or competitive results on several popular benchmark datasets.

Language models often show little to no improvement (i.e., "saturation") when trained via vanilla supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on data similar to what they saw in their training set (e.g., MATH). We introduce a new fine-tuning strategy, STAT, to train such a student model by using the metacognition ability of a stronger large language model (LLM) as the teacher. The teacher uses the task dataset to create a list of skills needed for the task, and then labels each data point with its required skills (Didolkar et al., 2024). By monitoring the student's answers, the teacher creates a Missing-Skill-Profile for the student, tracking how often they failed to apply each skill in their responses. We use this idea to build a modified training set in one of two ways. In STAT-Sel, the teacher uses an existing set of training examples but adaptively reweights them according to the Missing-Skill-Profile. In STAT-Syn, the teacher synthesizes additional examples involving missing skills. Across extensive experiments on Llama and Qwen models, our methods yield improvements of up to 7.5% on MATH, whereas SFT provides only limited gains. Furthermore, STAT enhances performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks (e.g., AIME24/25, AMC23, etc.) by an average of 4.6%. Crucially, we find that STAT is complementary to RL via GRPO (Shao et al., 2024): after the model is improved using STAT to address skill gaps, GRPO continues to add further gains. We conclude that skill-targeted adaptive training should broadly improve current training pipelines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/princeton-pli/STAT.

Agents, language model (LM)-based systems that are capable of reasoning, planning, and acting are becoming the dominant paradigm for real-world AI applications. Despite this widespread adoption, the principles that determine their performance remain underexplored, leaving practitioners to rely on heuristics rather than principled design choices. We address this gap by deriving quantitative scaling principles for agent systems. We evaluate this across four diverse benchmarks: Finance-Agent, BrowseComp-Plus, PlanCraft, and Workbench. Using five canonical architectures (Single, Independent, Centralized, Decentralized, Hybrid) instantiated across three LLM families, we perform a controlled evaluation spanning 180 configurations with standardized tools and token budgets. We derive a predictive model using empirical coordination metrics, including efficiency, overhead, error amplification, and redundancy, that achieves cross-validated R^2=0.513. We identify three dominant effects: (1) a tool-coordination trade-off: under fixed computational budgets, tool-heavy tasks suffer disproportionately from multi-agent overhead. (2) a capability saturation: coordination yields diminishing or negative returns (beta=-0.408, p<0.001) once single-agent baselines exceed ~45%. (3) topology-dependent error amplification: independent agents amplify errors 17.2x through unchecked propagation, while centralized coordination contains this to 4.4x. Centralized coordination improves performance by 80.9% on parallelizable tasks like financial reasoning, while decentralized coordination excels on dynamic web navigation (+9.2% vs. +0.2%). Yet for sequential reasoning tasks, all multi-agent variants degraded performance by 39-70%. The framework predicts the optimal coordination strategy for 87% of held-out configurations, providing a predictive principle of agentic scaling based on measurable task properties.