Daily Papers

Prognostic Health Management (PHM) systems monitor and predict equipment health. A key task is Remaining Useful Life (RUL) estimation, which predicts how long a component, such as a rolling element bearing, will operate before failure. Many RUL methods exist but often lack generalizability and robustness under changing operating conditions. This paper introduces CARLE, a hybrid AI framework that combines deep and shallow learning to address these challenges. CARLE uses Res-CNN and Res-LSTM blocks with multi-head attention and residual connections to capture spatial and temporal degradation patterns, and a Random Forest Regressor (RFR) for stable, accurate RUL prediction. A compact preprocessing pipeline applies Gaussian filtering for noise reduction and Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT) for time-frequency feature extraction. We evaluate CARLE on the XJTU-SY and PRONOSTIA bearing datasets. Ablation studies measure each component's contribution, while noise and cross-domain experiments test robustness and generalization. Comparative results show CARLE outperforms several state-of-the-art methods, especially under dynamic conditions. Finally, we analyze model interpretability with LIME and SHAP to assess transparency and trustworthiness.

Modern deep learning systems are typically deployed as open-loop function approximators: they map inputs to outputs in a single pass, without regulating how much computation or explanatory effort is spent on a given case. In safety-critical settings, this is brittle: easy and ambiguous inputs receive identical processing, and uncertainty is only read off retrospectively from raw probabilities. We introduce the Surgical Cognitive Interpreter (SCI), a lightweight closed-loop metacognitive control layer that wraps an existing stochastic model and turns prediction into an iterative process. SCI monitors a scalar interpretive state SP(t), here instantiated as a normalized entropy-based confidence signal, and adaptively decides whether to stop, continue sampling, or abstain. The goal is not to improve accuracy per se, but to regulate interpretive error ΔSP and expose a safety signal that tracks when the underlying model is likely to fail. We instantiate SCI around Monte Carlo dropout classifiers in three domains: vision (MNIST digits), medical time series (MIT-BIH arrhythmia), and industrial condition monitoring (rolling-element bearings). In all cases, the controller allocates more inference steps to misclassified inputs than to correct ones (up to about 3-4x on MNIST and bearings, and 1.4x on MIT-BIH). The resulting ΔSP acts as a usable safety signal for detecting misclassifications (AUROC 0.63 on MNIST, 0.70 on MIT-BIH, 0.86 on bearings). Code and reproducibility: https://github.com/vishal-1344/sci

Diagnosis of bearing faults is paramount to reducing maintenance costs and operational breakdowns. Bearing faults are primary contributors to machine vibrations, and analyzing their signal morphology offers insights into their health status. Unfortunately, existing approaches are optimized for controlled environments, neglecting realistic conditions such as time-varying rotational speeds and the vibration's non-stationary nature. This paper presents a fusion of time-frequency analysis and deep learning techniques to diagnose bearing faults under time-varying speeds and varying noise levels. First, we formulate the bearing fault-induced vibrations and discuss the link between their non-stationarity and the bearing's inherent and operational parameters. We also elucidate quadratic time-frequency distributions and validate their effectiveness in resolving distinctive dynamic patterns associated with different bearing faults. Based on this, we design a time-frequency convolutional neural network (TF-CNN) to diagnose various faults in rolling-element bearings. Our experimental findings undeniably demonstrate the superior performance of TF-CNN in comparison to recently developed techniques. They also assert its versatility in capturing fault-relevant non-stationary features that couple with speed changes and show its exceptional resilience to noise, consistently surpassing competing methods across various signal-to-noise ratios and performance metrics. Altogether, the TF-CNN achieves substantial accuracy improvements up to 15%, in severe noise conditions.

Detection of rolling-element bearing faults is crucial for implementing proactive maintenance strategies and for minimizing the economic and operational consequences of unexpected failures. However, many existing techniques are developed and tested under strictly controlled conditions, limiting their adaptability to the diverse and dynamic settings encountered in practical applications. This paper presents an efficient real-time convolutional neural network (CNN) for diagnosing multiple bearing faults under various noise levels and time-varying rotational speeds. Additionally, we propose a novel Fisher-based spectral separability analysis (SSA) method to elucidate the effectiveness of the designed CNN model. We conducted experiments on both healthy bearings and bearings afflicted with inner race, outer race, and roller ball faults. The experimental results show the superiority of our model over the current state-of-the-art approach in three folds: it achieves substantial accuracy gains of up to 15.8%, it is robust to noise with high performance across various signal-to-noise ratios, and it runs in real-time with processing durations five times less than acquisition. Additionally, by using the proposed SSA technique, we offer insights into the model's performance and underscore its effectiveness in tackling real-world challenges.

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of ball bearings is an active area of research, where novel machine learning techniques are continuously being applied to predict degradation trends and anticipate failures before they occur. However, few studies have explicitly addressed the challenge of handling censored data, where information about a specific event (\eg mechanical failure) is incomplete or only partially observed. To address this issue, we introduce a novel and flexible method for early fault detection using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and RUL estimation using survival analysis that naturally supports censored data. We demonstrate our approach in the XJTU-SY dataset using a 5-fold cross-validation strategy across three different operating conditions. When predicting the time to failure for bearings under the highest load (C1, 12.0 kN and 2100 RPM) with 25% random censoring, our approach achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.7 minutes (95% CI = 13.6-15.8) using a linear CoxPH model, and an MAE of 12.6 minutes (95% CI = 11.8-13.4) using a nonlinear Random Survival Forests model, compared to an MAE of 18.5 minutes (95% CI = 17.4-19.6) using a linear LASSO model that does not support censoring. Moreover, our approach achieves a mean cumulative relative accuracy (CRA) of 0.7586 over 5 bearings under the highest load, which improves over several state-of-the-art baselines. Our work highlights the importance of considering censored data as part of the model design when building predictive models for early fault detection and RUL estimation.

Concept-based explanation methods, such as Concept Activation Vectors, are potent means to quantify how abstract or high-level characteristics of input data influence the predictions of complex deep neural networks. However, applying them to industrial prediction problems is challenging as it is not immediately clear how to define and access appropriate concepts for individual use cases and specific data types. In this work, we investigate how to leverage established concept-based explanation techniques in the context of bearing fault detection with deep neural networks trained on vibration signals. Since bearings are prevalent in almost every rotating equipment, ensuring the reliability of intransparent fault detection models is crucial to prevent costly repairs and downtimes of industrial machinery. Our evaluations demonstrate that explaining opaque models in terms of vibration concepts enables human-comprehensible and intuitive insights about their inner workings, but the underlying assumptions need to be carefully validated first.

We propose a bearing health management framework leveraging large language models (BearLLM), a novel multimodal model that unifies multiple bearing-related tasks by processing user prompts and vibration signals. Specifically, we introduce a prior knowledge-enhanced unified vibration signal representation to handle various working conditions across multiple datasets. This involves adaptively sampling the vibration signals based on the sampling rate of the sensor, incorporating the frequency domain to unify input dimensions, and using a fault-free reference signal as an auxiliary input. To extract features from vibration signals, we first train a fault classification network, then convert and align the extracted features into word embedding, and finally concatenate these with text embedding as input to an LLM. To evaluate the performance of the proposed method, we constructed the first large-scale multimodal bearing health management (MBHM) dataset, including paired vibration signals and textual descriptions. With our unified vibration signal representation, BearLLM using one set of pre-trained weights achieves state-of-the-art performance on nine publicly available fault diagnosis benchmarks, outperforming specific methods designed for individual datasets. We provide a dataset, our model, and code to inspire future research on building more capable industrial multimodal models (https://github.com/hatton613/BearLLM).