Daily Papers

Search engines and information platforms are increasingly scrutinized for their role in spreading misinformation. Traditional responses often focus on detecting falsehoods or verifying the ultimate validity of claims. This paper argues that such a validity-centered framing is inadequate for the epistemic challenges of search environments.

Process Reward Models (PRMs) provide step-level feedback for reasoning, but current PRMs usually output only a single reward score for each step. Downstream methods must therefore treat imperfect step-level reward predictions as reliable decision signals, with no indication of when these predictions should be trusted. We propose BetaPRM, a distributional PRM that predicts both a step-level success probability and the reliability of that prediction. Given step-success supervision from Monte Carlo continuations, BetaPRM learns a Beta belief that explains the observed number of successful continuations through a Beta-Binomial likelihood, rather than regressing to the finite-sample success ratio as a point target. This learned reliability signal indicates when a step reward should be trusted, enabling downstream applications to distinguish reliable rewards from uncertain ones. As one application, we introduce Adaptive Computation Allocation (ACA) for PRM-guided Best-of-N reasoning. ACA uses the learned reliability signal to stop when a high-reward solution is reliable and to spend additional computation on uncertain candidate prefixes. Experiments across four backbones and four reasoning benchmarks show that BetaPRM improves PRM-guided Best-of-N selection while preserving standard step-level error detection. Built on this signal, ACA improves the accuracy--token tradeoff over fixed-budget Best-of-16, reducing token usage by up to 33.57% while improving final-answer accuracy.

We study self-distillation in settings where supervision is unreliable: there are no ground truth labels, verifiable rewards, or external graders to evaluate answers. We focus on document-grounded question answering with asymmetric context, where a single model serves as both tutor (with access to a relevant source document during training) and student (answering from the question alone at test time). Rather than assuming tutor correctness, we derive supervision online from tutor consensus by sampling multiple document-grounded reasoning traces and using agreement to gate learning. Conditioned on this reliability signal, we distill knowledge through full tutor reasoning trajectories (not just final answers), providing a dense and stable learning signal. Empirically, this consensus-gated trajectory distillation substantially improves transfer to the document-free student. Held-out in-domain accuracy under asymmetric evaluation improves from 46.0\% to 62.0\%, and average (maj@8) accuracy on public document-free math benchmarks improves from 20.2\% to 35.4\%.

Large Language Models often improve accuracy on reasoning tasks by sampling multiple Chain-of-Thought (CoT) traces and aggregating them with majority voting (MV), a test-time technique called self-consistency. When we truncate a CoT partway through and regenerate the remainder, we observe that traces with correct answers reproduce their original answer more often than traces with wrong answers. We use this difference as a reliability signal, prefix consistency, that weights each candidate answer by how often it reappears under regeneration. It requires no access to token log-probabilities or self-rating prompts. Across five reasoning models and four math and science benchmarks, prefix consistency is the best correctness predictor in most settings, and reweighting votes by it reaches Standard MV plateau accuracy at up to 21x fewer tokens (median 4.6x). Our code is available at https://github.com/naoto-iwase/prefix-consistency.

Vision-language process reward models (VL-PRMs) are increasingly used to score intermediate reasoning steps and rerank candidates under test-time scaling. However, they often function as black-box judges: a low step score may reflect a genuine reasoning mistake or simply the verifier's misperception of the image. This entanglement between perception and reasoning leads to systematic false positives (rewarding hallucinated visual premises) and false negatives (penalizing correct grounded statements), undermining both reranking and error localization. We introduce Explicit Visual Premise Verification (EVPV), a lightweight verification interface that conditions step scoring on the reliability of the visual premises a step depends on. The policy is prompted to produce a step-wise visual checklist that makes required visual facts explicit, while a constraint extractor independently derives structured visual constraints from the input image. EVPV matches checklist claims against these constraints to compute a scalar visual reliability signal, and calibrates PRM step rewards via reliability gating: rewards for visually dependent steps are attenuated when reliability is low and preserved when reliability is high. This decouples perceptual uncertainty from logical evaluation without per-step tool calls. Experiments on VisualProcessBench and six multimodal reasoning benchmarks show that EVPV improves step-level verification and consistently boosts Best-of-N reranking accuracy over strong baselines. Furthermore, injecting controlled corruption into the extracted constraints produces monotonic performance degradation, providing causal evidence that the gains arise from constraint fidelity and explicit premise verification rather than incidental prompt effects. Code is available at: https://github.com/Qwen-Applications/EVPV-PRM

Existing Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) algorithms, such as GRPO, rely on rigid, uniform, and symmetric trust region mechanisms that are fundamentally misaligned with the complex optimization dynamics of Large Language Models (LLMs). In this paper, we identify three critical challenges in these methods: (1) inefficient gradient utilization caused by the binary cutoff of hard clipping, (2) insensitive probability mass arising from uniform ratio constraints that ignore the token distribution, and (3) asymmetric signal reliability stemming from the disparate credit assignment ambiguity between positive and negative samples. To bridge these gaps, we propose Mass-Adaptive Soft Policy Optimization (MASPO), a unified framework designed to harmonize these three dimensions. MASPO integrates a differentiable soft Gaussian gating to maximize gradient utility, a mass-adaptive limiter to balance exploration across the probability spectrum, and an asymmetric risk controller to align update magnitudes with signal confidence. Extensive evaluations demonstrate that MASPO serves as a robust, all-in-one RLVR solution, significantly outperforming baselines. Our code is at: https://github.com/VenomRose-Juri/MASPO-RL{https://github.com/VenomRose-Juri/MASPO-RL}.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a standard paradigm for post-training large language models. While Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) is widely adopted, its coarse credit assignment uniformly penalizes failed rollouts, lacking the token-level focus needed to efficiently address specific deviations. Self-Distillation Policy Optimization (SDPO) addresses this by providing denser, more targeted logit-level supervision that facilitates rapid early improvement, yet it frequently collapses during prolonged training. We trace this late-stage instability to two intrinsic flaws: self-distillation on already-correct samples introduces optimization ambiguity, and the self-teacher's signal reliability progressively degrades. To resolve these issues, we propose Sample-Routed Policy Optimization (SRPO), a unified on-policy framework that routes correct samples to GRPO's reward-aligned reinforcement and failed samples to SDPO's targeted logit-level correction. SRPO further incorporates an entropy-aware dynamic weighting mechanism to suppress high-entropy, unreliable distillation targets while emphasizing confident ones. Evaluated across five benchmarks and two model scales, SRPO achieves both the rapid early improvement of SDPO and the long-horizon stability of GRPO. It consistently surpasses the peak performance of both baselines, raising the five-benchmark average on Qwen3-8B by 3.4% over GRPO and 6.3% over SDPO, while simultaneously yielding moderate response lengths and lowering per-step compute cost by up to 17.2%.

Large vision-language models suffer from visual ungroundedness: they can produce a fluent, confident, and even correct response driven entirely by language priors, with the image contributing nothing to the prediction. Existing confidence estimation methods cannot detect this, as they observe model behavior under normal inference with no mechanism to determine whether a prediction was shaped by the image or by text alone. We introduce BICR (Blind-Image Contrastive Ranking), a model-agnostic confidence estimation framework that makes this contrast explicit during training by extracting hidden states from a frozen LVLM twice: once with the real image-question pair, and once with the image blacked out while the question is held fixed. A lightweight probe is trained on the real-image hidden state and regularized by a ranking loss that penalizes higher confidence on the blacked-out view, teaching it to treat visual grounding as a signal of reliability at zero additional inference cost. Evaluated across five modern LVLMs and seven baselines on a benchmark covering visual question answering, object hallucination detection, medical imaging, and financial document understanding, BICR achieves the best cross-LVLM average on both calibration and discrimination simultaneously, with statistically significant discrimination gains robust to cluster-aware analysis at 4-18x fewer parameters than the strongest probing baseline.

While LLM-as-a-Judge is widely used in automated evaluation, existing validation practices primarily operate at the level of observed outputs, offering limited insight into whether LLM judges themselves function as stable and reliable measurement instruments. To address this limitation, we introduce a two-phase diagnostic framework for assessing reliability of LLM-as-a-Judge, grounded in Item Response Theory (IRT). The framework adopts Graded Response Model (GRM) of IRT and formalizes reliability along two complementary dimensions: (1) intrinsic consistency, defined as the stability of measurement behavior under prompt variations, and (2) human alignment, capturing correspondence with human quality assessments. We empirically examine diverse LLM judges with this framework, and show that leveraging IRT-GRM yields interpretable signals for diagnosing judgments systematically. These signals provide practical guidance for verifying reliablity of LLM-as-a-Judge and identifying potential causes of unreliability.

Developing large language models is expensive and involves making decisions with small experiments, typically by evaluating on large, multi-task evaluation suites. In this work, we analyze specific properties which make a benchmark more reliable for such decisions, and interventions to design higher-quality evaluation benchmarks. We introduce two key metrics that show differences in current benchmarks: signal, a benchmark's ability to separate better models from worse models, and noise, a benchmark's sensitivity to random variability between training steps. We demonstrate that benchmarks with a better signal-to-noise ratio are more reliable when making decisions at small scale, and those with less noise have lower scaling law prediction error. These results suggest that improving signal or noise will lead to more useful benchmarks, so we introduce three interventions designed to directly affect signal or noise. For example, we propose that switching to a metric that has better signal and noise (e.g., perplexity rather than accuracy) leads to better reliability and improved scaling law error. We also find that filtering noisy subtasks, to improve an aggregate signal-to-noise ratio, leads to more reliable multi-task evaluations. We also find that averaging the output of a model's intermediate checkpoints to reduce noise leads to consistent improvements. We conclude by recommending that those creating new benchmarks, or selecting which existing benchmarks to use, aim for high signal and low noise. We use 30 benchmarks for these experiments, and 375 open-weight language models from 60M to 32B parameters, resulting in a new, publicly available dataset of 900K evaluation benchmark results, totaling 200M instances.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) show remarkable capabilities, their unreliability remains a critical barrier to deployment in high-stakes domains. This survey charts a functional evolution in addressing this challenge: the evolution of uncertainty from a passive diagnostic metric to an active control signal guiding real-time model behavior. We demonstrate how uncertainty is leveraged as an active control signal across three frontiers: in advanced reasoning to optimize computation and trigger self-correction; in autonomous agents to govern metacognitive decisions about tool use and information seeking; and in reinforcement learning to mitigate reward hacking and enable self-improvement via intrinsic rewards. By grounding these advancements in emerging theoretical frameworks like Bayesian methods and Conformal Prediction, we provide a unified perspective on this transformative trend. This survey provides a comprehensive overview, critical analysis, and practical design patterns, arguing that mastering the new trend of uncertainty is essential for building the next generation of scalable, reliable, and trustworthy AI.

Hallucination, where models generate fluent text unsupported by visual evidence, remains a major flaw in vision-language models and is particularly critical in sign language translation (SLT). In SLT, meaning depends on precise grounding in video, and gloss-free models are especially vulnerable because they map continuous signer movements directly into natural language without intermediate gloss supervision that serves as alignment. We argue that hallucinations arise when models rely on language priors rather than visual input. To capture this, we propose a token-level reliability measure that quantifies how much the decoder uses visual information. Our method combines feature-based sensitivity, which measures internal changes when video is masked, with counterfactual signals, which capture probability differences between clean and altered video inputs. These signals are aggregated into a sentence-level reliability score, providing a compact and interpretable measure of visual grounding. We evaluate the proposed measure on two SLT benchmarks (PHOENIX-2014T and CSL-Daily) with both gloss-based and gloss-free models. Our results show that reliability predicts hallucination rates, generalizes across datasets and architectures, and decreases under visual degradations. Beyond these quantitative trends, we also find that reliability distinguishes grounded tokens from guessed ones, allowing risk estimation without references; when combined with text-based signals (confidence, perplexity, or entropy), it further improves hallucination risk estimation. Qualitative analysis highlights why gloss-free models are more susceptible to hallucinations. Taken together, our findings establish reliability as a practical and reusable tool for diagnosing hallucinations in SLT, and lay the groundwork for more robust hallucination detection in multimodal generation.

Understanding uncertainty in chain-of-thought reasoning is critical for reliable deployment of large language models. In this work, we propose a simple yet effective diagnostic approach based on trajectory shape rather than scalar magnitude. We show that this signal is practical, interpretable, and inexpensive to obtain in black-box settings, while remaining robust across models and datasets. Through extensive ablations and cross-domain replications, we demonstrate its utility for selective prediction and triage. Our findings offer a generalizable insight into uncertainty dynamics in reasoning tasks, with particular focus on numeric and discrete-answer settings.

Large language model (LLM) agents offer a promising data-driven approach to automating Site Reliability Engineering (SRE), yet their enterprise deployment is constrained by three challenges: restricted access to proprietary data, unsafe action execution under permission-governed environments, and the inability of closed systems to improve from failures. We present AOI (Autonomous Operations Intelligence), a trainable multi-agent framework formulating automated operations as a structured trajectory learning problem under security constraints. Our approach integrates three key components. First, a trainable diagnostic system applies Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) to distill expert-level knowledge into locally deployed open-source models, enabling preference-based learning without exposing sensitive data. Second, a read-write separated execution architecture decomposes operational trajectories into observation, reasoning, and action phases, allowing safe learning while preventing unauthorized state mutation. Third, a Failure Trajectory Closed-Loop Evolver mines unsuccessful trajectories and converts them into corrective supervision signals, enabling continual data augmentation. Evaluated on the AIOpsLab benchmark, our contributions yield cumulative gains. (1) The AOI runtime alone achieves 66.3% best@5 success on all 86 tasks, outperforming the prior state-of-the-art (41.9%) by 24.4 points. (2) Adding Observer GRPO training, a locally deployed 14B model reaches 42.9% avg@1 on 63 held-out tasks with unseen fault types, surpassing Claude Sonnet 4.5. (3) The Evolver converts 37 failed trajectories into diagnostic guidance, improving end-to-end avg@5 by 4.8 points while reducing variance by 35%.

Artifact removal in electroencephalography (EEG) is a longstanding challenge that significantly impacts neuroscientific analysis and brain-computer interface (BCI) performance. Tackling this problem demands advanced algorithms, extensive noisy-clean training data, and thorough evaluation strategies. This study presents the Artifact Removal Transformer (ART), an innovative EEG denoising model employing transformer architecture to adeptly capture the transient millisecond-scale dynamics characteristic of EEG signals. Our approach offers a holistic, end-to-end denoising solution for diverse artifact types in multichannel EEG data. We enhanced the generation of noisy-clean EEG data pairs using an independent component analysis, thus fortifying the training scenarios critical for effective supervised learning. We performed comprehensive validations using a wide range of open datasets from various BCI applications, employing metrics like mean squared error and signal-to-noise ratio, as well as sophisticated techniques such as source localization and EEG component classification. Our evaluations confirm that ART surpasses other deep-learning-based artifact removal methods, setting a new benchmark in EEG signal processing. This advancement not only boosts the accuracy and reliability of artifact removal but also promises to catalyze further innovations in the field, facilitating the study of brain dynamics in naturalistic environments.

Large language models (LLMs) are now rapidly advancing and surpassing human abilities on many natural language tasks. However, aligning these super-human LLMs with human knowledge remains challenging because the supervision signals from human annotators may be wrong. This issue, known as the "super-alignment" problem, requires enhancing weak-to-strong generalization, where a strong LLM must generalize from imperfect supervision provided by a weaker source. To address this issue, we propose an approach to improve weak-to-strong generalization by involving the reliability of weak supervision signals in the alignment process. In our method, we query the weak supervisor for multiple answers, estimate the answer reliability, and enhance the alignment process by filtering out uncertain data or re-weighting reliable data. Experiments on four datasets demonstrate that our methods effectively identify the quality of weak labels and significantly enhance weak-to-strong generalization. Our work presents effective techniques for error-robust model alignment, reducing error propagation from noisy supervision and enhancing the accuracy and reliability of LLMs. Codes are publicly available at http://github.com/Irenehere/ReliableAlignment.

Reward models (RMs) are crucial for the training and inference-time scaling up of large language models (LLMs). However, existing reward models primarily focus on human preferences, neglecting verifiable correctness signals which have shown strong potential in training LLMs. In this paper, we propose agentic reward modeling, a reward system that combines reward models with verifiable correctness signals from different aspects to provide reliable rewards. We empirically implement a reward agent, named RewardAgent, that combines human preference rewards with two verifiable signals: factuality and instruction following, to provide more reliable rewards. We conduct comprehensive experiments on existing reward model benchmarks and inference time best-of-n searches on real-world downstream tasks. RewardAgent significantly outperforms vanilla reward models, demonstrating its effectiveness. We further construct training preference pairs using RewardAgent and train an LLM with the DPO objective, achieving superior performance on various NLP benchmarks compared to conventional reward models. Our codes are publicly released to facilitate further research (https://github.com/THU-KEG/Agentic-Reward-Modeling).

Motor impairments, frequently caused by neurological incidents like strokes or traumatic brain injuries, present substantial obstacles in rehabilitation therapy. This research aims to elevate the field by optimizing motor imagery classification algorithms within Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs). By improving the efficiency of BCIs, we offer a novel approach that holds significant promise for enhancing motor rehabilitation outcomes. Utilizing unsupervised techniques for dimensionality reduction, namely Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) coupled with K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), we evaluate the necessity of employing supervised methods such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for classification tasks. Importantly, participants who exhibited high KNN scores following UMAP dimensionality reduction also achieved high accuracy in supervised deep learning (DL) models. Due to individualized model requirements and massive neural training data, dimensionality reduction becomes an effective preprocessing step that minimizes the need for extensive data labeling and supervised deep learning techniques. This approach has significant implications not only for targeted therapies in motor dysfunction but also for addressing regulatory, safety, and reliability concerns in the rapidly evolving BCI field.

We present MAESTRO, an evaluation suite for the testing, reliability, and observability of LLM-based MAS. MAESTRO standardizes MAS configuration and execution through a unified interface, supports integrating both native and third-party MAS via a repository of examples and lightweight adapters, and exports framework-agnostic execution traces together with system-level signals (e.g., latency, cost, and failures). We instantiate MAESTRO with 12 representative MAS spanning popular agentic frameworks and interaction patterns, and conduct controlled experiments across repeated runs, backend models, and tool configurations. Our case studies show that MAS executions can be structurally stable yet temporally variable, leading to substantial run-to-run variance in performance and reliability. We further find that MAS architecture is the dominant driver of resource profiles, reproducibility, and cost-latency-accuracy trade-off, often outweighing changes in backend models or tool settings. Overall, MAESTRO enables systematic evaluation and provides empirical guidance for designing and optimizing agentic systems.

Visual Emotion Comprehension (VEC) aims to infer sentiment polarities or emotion categories from affective cues embedded in images. In recent years, Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have established a popular paradigm in VEC, leveraging their generalizability to unify VEC tasks defined under diverse emotion taxonomies. While this paradigm achieves notable success, it typically formulates VEC as a deterministic task, requiring the model to output a single, definitive emotion label for each image. Such a formulation insufficiently accounts for the inherent subjectivity of emotion perception, overlooking alternative interpretations that may be equally plausible to different viewers. To address this limitation, we propose equipping MLLMs with capabilities to verbalize their confidence in emotion predictions. This additional signal provides users with an estimate of both the plausibility of alternative interpretations and the MLLMs' self-assessed competence, thereby enhancing reliability in practice. Building on this insight, we introduce a three-stage training framework that progressively endows with structured reasoning, teaches to verbalize confidence, and calibrates confidence expression, culminating in EmoCaliber, a confidence-aware MLLM for VEC. Through fair and comprehensive evaluations on the unified benchmark VECBench, EmoCaliber demonstrates overall superiority against existing methods in both emotion prediction and confidence estimation. These results validate the effectiveness of our approach and mark a feasible step toward more reliable VEC systems. Project page: https://github.com/wdqqdw/EmoCaliber.

Satellite connectivity is gaining increased attention as the demand for seamless internet access, especially in transportation and remote areas, continues to grow. For fast-moving objects such as aircraft, vehicles, or trains, satellite connectivity is critical due to their mobility and frequent presence in areas without terrestrial coverage. Maintaining reliable connectivity in these cases requires frequent switching between satellite beams, constellations, or orbits. To enhance user experience and address challenges like long switching times, Machine Learning (ML) algorithms can analyze historical connectivity data and predict network quality at specific locations. This allows for proactive measures, such as network switching before connectivity issues arise. In this paper, we analyze a real dataset of communication between a Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellite and aircraft over multiple flights, using ML to predict signal quality. Our prediction model achieved an F1 score of 0.97 on the test data, demonstrating the accuracy of machine learning in predicting signal quality during flight. By enabling seamless broadband service, including roaming between different satellite constellations and providers, our model addresses the need for real-time predictions of signal quality. This approach can further be adapted to automate satellite and beam-switching mechanisms to improve overall communication efficiency. The model can also be retrained and applied to any moving object with satellite connectivity, using customized datasets, including connected vehicles and trains.

While LLMs have seen substantial improvement in reasoning capabilities, they also sometimes overthink, generating unnecessary reasoning steps, particularly under uncertainty, given ill-posed or ambiguous queries. We introduce statistically principled early stopping methods that monitor uncertainty signals during generation to mitigate this issue. Our first approach is parametric: it models inter-arrival times of uncertainty keywords as a renewal process and applies sequential testing for stopping. Our second approach is nonparametric and provides finite-sample guarantees on the probability of halting too early on well-posed queries. We conduct empirical evaluations on reasoning tasks across several domains and models. Our results indicate that uncertainty-aware early stopping can improve both efficiency and reliability in LLM reasoning, and we observe especially significant gains for math reasoning.

Although AI agents have demonstrated impressive capabilities in long-horizon reasoning, their reliability is severely hampered by the ``Spiral of Hallucination,'' where early epistemic errors propagate irreversibly. Existing methods face a dilemma: uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods typically act as passive sensors, only diagnosing risks without addressing them, while self-reflection mechanisms suffer from continuous or aimless corrections. To bridge this gap, we propose a unified Dual-Process Agentic UQ (AUQ) framework that transforms verbalized uncertainty into active, bi-directional control signals. Our architecture comprises two complementary mechanisms: System 1 (Uncertainty-Aware Memory, UAM), which implicitly propagates verbalized confidence and semantic explanations to prevent blind decision-making; and System 2 (Uncertainty-Aware Reflection, UAR), which utilizes these explanations as rational cues to trigger targeted inference-time resolution only when necessary. This enables the agent to balance efficient execution and deep deliberation dynamically. Extensive experiments on closed-loop benchmarks and open-ended deep research tasks demonstrate that our training-free approach achieves superior performance and trajectory-level calibration. We believe this principled framework AUQ represents a significant step towards reliable agents.

The presence of unhealthy nodes in cloud infrastructure signals the potential failure of machines, which can significantly impact the availability and reliability of cloud services, resulting in negative customer experiences. Effectively addressing unhealthy node mitigation is therefore vital for sustaining cloud system performance. This paper introduces Deoxys, a causal inference engine tailored to recommending mitigation actions for unhealthy node in cloud systems to minimize virtual machine downtime and interruptions during unhealthy events. It employs double machine learning combined with causal forest to produce precise and reliable mitigation recommendations based solely on limited observational data collected from the historical unhealthy events. To enhance the causal inference model, Deoxys further incorporates a policy fallback mechanism based on model uncertainty and action overriding mechanisms to (i) improve the reliability of the system, and (ii) strike a good tradeoff between downtime reduction and resource utilization, thereby enhancing the overall system performance. After deploying Deoxys in a large-scale cloud infrastructure at Microsoft, our observations demonstrate that Deoxys significantly reduces average VM downtime by 53% compared to a legacy policy, while leading to 49.5% lower VM interruption rate. This substantial improvement enhances the reliability and stability of cloud platforms, resulting in a seamless customer experience.

The use of Large Language Models (LLMs) for reliable, enterprise-grade analytics such as text categorization is often hindered by the stochastic nature of attention mechanisms and sensitivity to noise that compromise their analytical precision and reproducibility. To address these technical frictions, this paper introduces the Weighted Syntactic and Semantic Context Assessment Summary (wSSAS), a deterministic framework designed to enforce data integrity on large-scale, chaotic datasets. We propose a two-phased validation framework that first organizes raw text into a hierarchical classification structure containing Themes, Stories, and Clusters. It then leverages a Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR) to prioritize high-value semantic features, ensuring the model's attention remains focused on the most representative data points. By incorporating this scoring mechanism into a Summary-of-Summaries (SoS) architecture, the framework effectively isolates essential information and mitigates background noise during data aggregation. Experimental results using Gemini 2.0 Flash Lite across diverse datasets - including Google Business reviews, Amazon Product reviews, and Goodreads Book reviews - demonstrate that wSSAS significantly improves clustering integrity and categorization accuracy. Our findings indicate that wSSAS reduces categorization entropy and provides a reproducible pathway for improving LLM based summaries based on a high-precision, deterministic process for large-scale text categorization.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has recently emerged as a promising framework for improving reasoning abilities in Large Language Models (LLMs). However, policy optimized with binary verification prone to overlook potential valuable exploration in reasoning trajectory. In view of heavy annotation cost of golden Process Reward Models (PRMs), recent works attempt using auxiliary signals for reward shaping of process tokens, involving entropy and likelihood collected from logit space. In this work, we offer a novel perspective on shaping RLVR with flow rewards derived from latent space, and propose RLFR, where the flow fields of model latents are constructed from either off-policy high-quality data and on-policy rejection sampling data, and the velocity deviations of policy latents within it are quantified to serve as a reward signal. RLFR first demonstrates that a well-established flow field can be a sound environment for reward signal collection, highlighting the expressive latent space is much underexplored. Moreover, RLFR is able to compress any off-policy expert data as reference for constituting reward signals, and we show that the efficient context dependence compressed within the hidden states are utilized, rather than individual token-level denotation for context comprehending. Experiments on both language and multimodal reasoning benchmarks demonstrate the reliability of flow rewards, and suggesting a promising paradigm for reward shaping with auxiliary signals.

Modern large-scale ranking systems operate within a sophisticated landscape of competing objectives, operational constraints, and evolving product requirements. Progress in this domain is increasingly bottlenecked by the engineering context constraint: the arduous process of translating ambiguous product intent into reasonable, executable, verifiable hypotheses, rather than by modeling techniques alone. We present GEARS (Generative Engine for Agentic Ranking Systems), a framework that reframes ranking optimization as an autonomous discovery process within a programmable experimentation environment. Rather than treating optimization as static model selection, GEARS leverages Specialized Agent Skills to encapsulate ranking expert knowledge into reusable reasoning capabilities, enabling operators to steer systems via high-level intent vibe personalization. Furthermore, to ensure production reliability, the framework incorporates validation hooks to enforce statistical robustness and filter out brittle policies that overfit short-term signals. Experimental validation across diverse product surfaces demonstrates that GEARS consistently identifies superior, near-Pareto-efficient policies by synergizing algorithmic signals with deep ranking context while maintaining rigorous deployment stability.

LLMs are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as medical triage and legal assistance, often as document-grounded QA systems in which a user provides a description, relevant sources are retrieved, and an LLM generates a prediction. In practice, initial user queries are often underspecified, and a single retrieval pass is insufficient for reliable decision-making, leading to incorrect and overly confident answers. While follow-up questioning can elicit missing information, existing methods typically depend on implicit, unstructured confidence signals from the LLM, making it difficult to determine what remains unknown, what information matters most, and when to stop asking questions. We propose InfoGatherer, a framework that gathers missing information from two complementary sources: retrieved domain documents and targeted follow-up questions to the user. InfoGatherer models uncertainty using Dempster-Shafer belief assignments over a structured evidential network, enabling principled fusion of incomplete and potentially contradictory evidence from both sources without prematurely collapsing to a definitive answer. Across legal and medical tasks, InfoGatherer outperforms strong baselines while requiring fewer turns. By grounding uncertainty in formal evidential theory rather than heuristic LLM signals, InfoGatherer moves towards trustworthy, interpretable decision support in domains where reliability is critical.

Recent advancements in code generation have shown remarkable success across software domains, yet hardware description languages (HDLs) such as Verilog remain underexplored due to their concurrency semantics, syntactic rigidity, and simulation complexity. In this work, we address these challenges by introducing a reinforcement learning (RL) framework tailored for Verilog code generation. We first construct Veribench-53K, a high-quality dataset curated from over 700K Verilog problems, enriched with structured prompts, complexity labels, and diverse testbenches. To tackle the problem of sparse and noisy reward signals, we propose a Trace-back based Rescore mechanism that leverages reasoning paths and iterative refinement to enhance feedback reliability and support reward model training. Furthermore, to mitigate catastrophic forgetting and overfitting during RL fine-tuning, we introduce a sample-balanced weighting strategy that adaptively balances learning dynamics based on reward-probability distributions. These innovations are integrated into an iterative RL pipeline that co-evolves the policy and reward models. In contrast to recent work such as CraftRTL, which relies on large-scale closed-source model distillation, and DeepSeek-style approaches that struggle with sparse feedback, our method demonstrates superior performance using a smaller but high-quality dataset combined with RL optimization. Experiments on Verilog generation tasks demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, with substantial gains in test pass rate, functional correctness, and compilation robustness. Our findings highlight the potential of RL-driven approaches for structured code generation in hardware-centric domains. VERIRL is publicly available at https://github.com/omniAI-Lab/VeriRL.

RF/Analog design is essential for bridging digital technologies with real-world signals, ensuring the functionality and reliability of a wide range of electronic systems. However, analog design procedures are often intricate, time-consuming and reliant on expert intuition, and hinder the time and cost efficiency of circuit development. To overcome the limitations of the manual circuit design, we introduce MenTeR - a multiagent workflow integrated into an end-to-end analog design framework. By employing multiple specialized AI agents that collaboratively address different aspects of the design process, such as specification understanding, circuit optimization, and test bench validation, MenTeR reduces the dependency on frequent trial-and-error-style intervention. MenTeR not only accelerates the design cycle time but also facilitates a broader exploration of the design space, demonstrating robust capabilities in handling real-world analog systems. We believe that MenTeR lays the groundwork for future "RF/Analog Copilots" that can collaborate seamlessly with human designers.

In autonomous driving, traditional Computer Vision (CV) agents often struggle in unfamiliar situations due to biases in the training data. Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) agents address this by learning from experience and maximizing rewards, which helps them adapt to dynamic environments. However, ensuring their generalization remains challenging, especially with static training environments. Additionally, DRL models lack transparency, making it difficult to guarantee safety in all scenarios, particularly those not seen during training. To tackle these issues, we propose a method that combines DRL with Curriculum Learning for autonomous driving. Our approach uses a Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) agent and a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) to learn safe driving in the CARLA simulator. The agent is trained using two-fold curriculum learning, progressively increasing environment difficulty and incorporating a collision penalty in the reward function to promote safety. This method improves the agent's adaptability and reliability in complex environments, and understand the nuances of balancing multiple reward components from different feedback signals in a single scalar reward function. Keywords: Computer Vision, Deep Reinforcement Learning, Variational Autoencoder, Proximal Policy Optimization, Curriculum Learning, Autonomous Driving.

As the large language model (LLM) ecosystem expands, individual models exhibit varying capabilities across queries, benchmarks, and domains, motivating the development of LLM routing. While prior work has largely focused on router mechanism design, LLM profiles, which capture model capabilities, remain underexplored. In this work, we ask: How does LLM profile design affect routing performance across different routers? Addressing this question helps clarify the role of profiles in routing, disentangle profile design from router design, and enable fairer comparison and more principled development of routing systems. To this end, we view LLM profiling as a structured information integration problem over heterogeneous interaction histories. We develop a general design space of LLM profiles, named RouteProfile, along four key dimensions: organizational form, representation type, aggregation depth, and learning configuration. Through systematic evaluation across three representative routers under both standard and new-LLM generalization settings, we show that: (1) structured profiles consistently outperform flat ones; (2) query-level signals are more reliable than coarse domain-level signals; and (3) generalization to newly introduced models benefits most from structured profiles under trainable configurations. Overall, our work highlights LLM profile design as an important direction for future routing research.

Graphical User Interface (GUI) agents have emerged as a promising paradigm for intelligent systems that perceive and interact with graphical interfaces visually. Yet supervised fine-tuning alone cannot handle long-horizon credit assignment, distribution shifts, and safe exploration in irreversible environments, making Reinforcement Learning (RL) a central methodology for advancing automation. In this work, we present the first comprehensive overview of the intersection between RL and GUI agents, and examine how this research direction may evolve toward digital inhabitants. We propose a principled taxonomy that organizes existing methods into Offline RL, Online RL, and Hybrid Strategies, and complement it with analyses of reward engineering, data efficiency, and key technical innovations. Our analysis reveals several emerging trends: the tension between reliability and scalability is motivating the adoption of composite, multi-tier reward architectures; GUI I/O latency bottlenecks are accelerating the shift toward world-model-based training, which can yield substantial performance gains; and the spontaneous emergence of System-2-style deliberation suggests that explicit reasoning supervision may not be necessary when sufficiently rich reward signals are available. We distill these findings into a roadmap covering process rewards, continual RL, cognitive architectures, and safe deployment, aiming to guide the next generation of robust GUI automation and its agent-native infrastructure.

Traditional Blind Source Separation Evaluation (BSS-Eval) metrics were originally designed to evaluate linear audio source separation models based on methods such as time-frequency masking. However, recent generative models may introduce nonlinear relationships between the separated and reference signals, limiting the reliability of these metrics for objective evaluation. To address this issue, we conduct a Degradation Category Rating listening test and analyze correlations between the obtained degradation mean opinion scores (DMOS) and a set of objective audio quality metrics for the task of singing voice separation. We evaluate three state-of-the-art discriminative models and two new competitive generative models. For both discriminative and generative models, intrusive embedding-based metrics show higher correlations with DMOS than conventional intrusive metrics such as BSS-Eval. For discriminative models, the highest correlation is achieved by the MSE computed on Music2Latent embeddings. When it comes to the evaluation of generative models, the strongest correlations are evident for the multi-resolution STFT loss and the MSE calculated on MERT-L12 embeddings, with the latter also providing the most balanced correlation across both model types. Our results highlight the limitations of BSS-Eval metrics for evaluating generative singing voice separation models and emphasize the need for careful selection and validation of alternative evaluation metrics for the task of singing voice separation.

Long-horizon multimodal agents depend on external memory; however, similarity-based retrieval often surfaces stale, low-credibility, or conflicting items, which can trigger overconfident errors. We propose Multimodal Memory Agent (MMA), which assigns each retrieved memory item a dynamic reliability score by combining source credibility, temporal decay, and conflict-aware network consensus, and uses this signal to reweight evidence and abstain when support is insufficient. We also introduce MMA-Bench, a programmatically generated benchmark for belief dynamics with controlled speaker reliability and structured text-vision contradictions. Using this framework, we uncover the "Visual Placebo Effect", revealing how RAG-based agents inherit latent visual biases from foundation models. On FEVER, MMA matches baseline accuracy while reducing variance by 35.2% and improving selective utility; on LoCoMo, a safety-oriented configuration improves actionable accuracy and reduces wrong answers; on MMA-Bench, MMA reaches 41.18% Type-B accuracy in Vision mode, while the baseline collapses to 0.0% under the same protocol. Code: https://github.com/AIGeeksGroup/MMA.

This paper introduces MarketSenseAI, an innovative framework leveraging GPT-4's advanced reasoning for selecting stocks in financial markets. By integrating Chain of Thought and In-Context Learning, MarketSenseAI analyzes diverse data sources, including market trends, news, fundamentals, and macroeconomic factors, to emulate expert investment decision-making. The development, implementation, and validation of the framework are elaborately discussed, underscoring its capability to generate actionable and interpretable investment signals. A notable feature of this work is employing GPT-4 both as a predictive mechanism and signal evaluator, revealing the significant impact of the AI-generated explanations on signal accuracy, reliability and acceptance. Through empirical testing on the competitive S&P 100 stocks over a 15-month period, MarketSenseAI demonstrated exceptional performance, delivering excess alpha of 10% to 30% and achieving a cumulative return of up to 72% over the period, while maintaining a risk profile comparable to the broader market. Our findings highlight the transformative potential of Large Language Models in financial decision-making, marking a significant leap in integrating generative AI into financial analytics and investment strategies.

Reinforcement learning from verifiable rewards (RLVR) has improved the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs), but most existing approaches rely on sparse outcome-level feedback. This sparsity creates a credit assignment challenge in long-horizon agentic reasoning: a trajectory may fail despite containing many correct intermediate decisions, or succeed despite containing flawed ones. In this work, we study a class of densely-verifiable agentic reasoning problems, where intermediate actions can be objectively checked by symbolic or algorithmic oracles. We propose Verifiable Process Rewards (VPR), a framework that converts such oracles into dense turn-level supervision for reinforcement learning, and instantiate it in three representative settings: search-based verification for dynamic deduction, constraint-based verification for logical reasoning, and posterior-based verification for probabilistic inference. We further provide a theoretical analysis showing that dense verifier-grounded rewards can improve long-horizon credit assignment by providing more localized learning signals, with the benefit depending on the reliability of the verifier. Empirically, VPR outperforms outcome-level reward and rollout-based process reward baselines across controlled environments, and more importantly, transfers to both general and agentic reasoning benchmarks, suggesting that verifiable process supervision can foster general reasoning skills applicable beyond the training environments. Our results indicate that VPR is a promising approach for enhancing LLM agents whenever reliable intermediate verification is available, while also highlighting its dependence on oracle quality and the open challenge of extending VPR to less structured, open-ended environments.

Retrieval-augmented agents can query external evidence, yet their reliability in multi-step reasoning remains limited: noisy retrieval may derail multi-hop question answering, while outcome-only reinforcement learning provides credit signals that are too coarse to optimize intermediate steps. We propose EvalAct (Evaluate-as-Action), which converts implicit retrieval quality assessment into an explicit action and enforces a coupled Search-to-Evaluate protocol so that each retrieval is immediately followed by a structured evaluation score, yielding process signals aligned with the interaction trajectory. To leverage these signals, we introduce Process-Calibrated Advantage Rescaling (PCAR), a GRPO-based optimization method that rescales advantages at the segment level according to evaluation scores, emphasizing reliable segments while updating uncertain ones conservatively. Experiments on seven open-domain QA benchmarks show that EvalAct achieves the best average accuracy, with the largest gains on multi-hop tasks, and ablations verify that the explicit evaluation loop drives the primary improvements while PCAR provides consistent additional benefits.

Multimodal Process Reward Models (MPRMs) are central to step-level supervision for visual reasoning in MLLMs. Training MPRMs typically requires large-scale Monte Carlo (MC)-annotated corpora, incurring substantial training cost. This paper studies the data efficiency for MPRM training.Our preliminary experiments reveal that MPRM training quickly saturates under random subsampling of the training data, indicating substantial redundancy within existing MC-annotated corpora.To explain this, we formalize a theoretical framework and reveal that informative gradient updates depend on two factors: label mixtures of positive/negative steps and label reliability (average MC scores of positive steps). Guided by these insights, we propose the Balanced-Information Score (BIS), which prioritizes both mixture and reliability based on existing MC signals at the rollout level, without incurring any additional cost. Across two backbones (InternVL2.5-8B and Qwen2.5-VL-7B) on VisualProcessBench, BIS-selected subsets consistently match and even surpass the full-data performance at small fractions. Notably, the BIS subset reaches full-data performance using only 10% of the training data, improving over random subsampling by a relative 4.1%.

Can LLM agents explore codebases and reason about code semantics without executing the code? We study this capability, which we call agentic code reasoning, and introduce semi-formal reasoning: a structured prompting methodology that requires agents to construct explicit premises, trace execution paths, and derive formal conclusions. Unlike unstructured chain-of-thought, semi-formal reasoning acts as a certificate: the agent cannot skip cases or make unsupported claims. We evaluate across three tasks (patch equivalence verification, fault localization, and code question answering) and show that semi-formal reasoning consistently improves accuracy on all of them. For patch equivalence, accuracy improves from 78% to 88% on curated examples and reaches 93% on real-world agent-generated patches, approaching the reliability needed for execution-free RL reward signals. For code question answering on RubberDuckBench Mohammad et al. (2026), semi-formal reasoning achieves 87% accuracy. For fault localization on Defects4J Just et al. (2014), semi-formal reasoning improves Top-5 accuracy by 5 percentage points over standard reasoning. These results demonstrate that structured agentic reasoning enables meaningful semantic code analysis without execution, opening practical applications in RL training pipelines, code review, and static program analysis.

Code verifiers play a critical role in post-verification for LLM-based code generation, yet existing supervised fine-tuning methods suffer from data scarcity, high failure rates, and poor inference efficiency. While reinforcement learning (RL) offers a promising alternative by optimizing models through execution-driven rewards without labeled supervision, our preliminary results show that naive RL with only functionality rewards fails to generate effective unit tests for difficult branches and samples. We first theoretically analyze showing that branch coverage, sample difficulty, syntactic and functional correctness can be jointly modeled as RL rewards, where optimizing these signals can improve the reliability of unit-test-based verification. Guided by this analysis, we design syntax- and functionality-aware rewards and further propose branch- and sample-difficulty--aware RL using exponential reward shaping and static analysis metrics. With this formulation, CVeDRL achieves state-of-the-art performance with only 0.6B parameters, yielding up to 28.97% higher pass rate and 15.08% higher branch coverage than GPT-3.5, while delivering over 20times faster inference than competitive baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/LIGHTCHASER1/CVeDRL.git

Verifying the success of computer use agent (CUA) trajectories is a critical challenge: without reliable verification, neither evaluation nor training signal can be trusted. In this paper, we present lessons learned from building a best-in-class verifier for web tasks we call the Universal Verifier. We design the Universal Verifier around four key principles: 1) constructing rubrics with meaningful, non-overlapping criteria to reduce noise; 2) separating process and outcome rewards that yield complementary signals, capturing cases where an agent follows the right steps but gets blocked or succeeds through an unexpected path; 3) distinguishing between controllable and uncontrollable failures scored via a cascading-error-free strategy for finer-grained failure understanding; and 4) a divide-and-conquer context management scheme that attends to all screenshots in a trajectory, improving reliability on longer task horizons. We validate these findings on CUAVerifierBench, a new set of CUA trajectories with both process and outcome human labels, showing that our Universal Verifier agrees with humans as often as humans agree with each other. We report a reduction in false positive rates to near zero compared to baselines like WebVoyager (geq 45\%) and WebJudge (geq 22\%). We emphasize that these gains stem from the cumulative effect of the design choices above. We also find that an auto-research agent achieves 70\% of expert quality in 5\% of the time, but fails to discover all strategies required to replicate the Universal Verifier. We open-source our Universal Verifier system along with CUAVerifierBench; available at https://github.com/microsoft/fara.

Image Quality Assessment (IQA) predicts perceptual quality scores consistent with human judgments. Recent RL-based IQA methods built on MLLMs focus on generating visual quality descriptions and scores, ignoring two key reliability limitations: (i) although the model's prediction stability varies significantly across training samples, existing GRPO-based methods apply uniform advantage weighting, thereby amplifying noisy signals from unstable samples in gradient updates; (ii) most works emphasize text-grounded reasoning over images while overlooking the model's visual perception ability of image content. In this paper, we propose Q-Hawkeye, an RL-based reliable visual policy optimization framework that redesigns the learning signal through unified Uncertainty-Aware Dynamic Optimization and Perception-Aware Optimization. Q-Hawkeye estimates predictive uncertainty using the variance of predicted scores across multiple rollouts and leverages this uncertainty to reweight each sample's update strength, stabilizing policy optimization. To strengthen perceptual reliability, we construct paired inputs of degraded images and their original images and introduce an Implicit Perception Loss that constrains the model to ground its quality judgments in genuine visual evidence. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Q-Hawkeye outperforms state-of-the-art methods and generalizes better across multiple datasets. Our dataset and code are available at https://github.com/AMAP-ML/Q-Hawkeye.

Existing multi-agent frameworks allow each agent to simultaneously plan, execute, and evaluate its own actions -- a structural deficiency we term the "Logic Monopoly." Empirical evidence quantifies the resulting "Reliability Gap": 84.30% average attack success rates across ten deployment scenarios, 31.4% emergent deceptive behavior without explicit reward signals, and cascading failure modes rooted in six structural bottlenecks. The remedy is not better alignment of individual models but a social contract for agents: institutional infrastructure that enforces a constitutional Separation of Power. This paper introduces the Agent Enterprise for Enterprise (AE4E) paradigm -- agents as autonomous, legally identifiable business entities within a functionalist social system -- with a contract-centric SoP model trifurcating authority into Legislation, Execution, and Adjudication branches. The paradigm is operationalized through the NetX Enterprise Framework (NEF): governance hubs, TEE-backed compute enclaves, privacy-preserving data bridges, and an Agent-Native blockchain substrate. The Agent Enterprise Economy scales across four deployment tiers from private enclaves to a global Web of Services. The Agentic Social Layer, grounded in Parsons' AGIL framework, provides institutional infrastructure via sixty-plus named Institutional AE4Es. 143 pages, 173 references, eight specialized smart contracts.

Reasoning failures in large language models (LLMs) are typically measured only at the end of a generation, yet many failures manifest as a process-level breakdown: the model "loses the thread" mid-reasoning. We study whether such breakdowns are detectable from inference-time observables available in standard APIs (token log probabilities), without any training or fine-tuning. We define a simple instability signal that combines consecutive-step distributional shift (JSD) and uncertainty (entropy), summarize each trace by its peak instability strength, and show that this signal reliably predicts failure. Across GSM8K and HotpotQA, instability strength predicts wrong answers with above-chance AUC and yields monotonic bucket-level accuracy decline at scale across model sizes. Crucially, we show that instability is not uniformly harmful: early instability can reflect subsequent stabilization and a correct final answer (corrective instability), whereas late instability is more often followed by failure (destructive instability), even at comparable peak magnitudes, indicating that recoverability depends not only on how strongly the distribution changes but also on when such changes occur relative to the remaining decoding horizon. The method is model-agnostic, training-free, and reproducible, and is presented as a diagnostic lens rather than a corrective or control mechanism.

Neural networks have shown remarkable performance in computer vision, but their deployment in numerous scientific and technical fields is challenging due to their black-box nature. Scientists and practitioners need to evaluate the reliability of a decision, i.e., to know simultaneously if a model relies on the relevant features and whether these features are robust to image corruptions. Existing attribution methods aim to provide human-understandable explanations by highlighting important regions in the image domain, but fail to fully characterize a decision process's reliability. To bridge this gap, we introduce the Wavelet sCale Attribution Method (WCAM), a generalization of attribution from the pixel domain to the space-scale domain using wavelet transforms. Attribution in the wavelet domain reveals where {\it and} on what scales the model focuses, thus enabling us to assess whether a decision is reliable.

Calibration measures and reliability diagrams are two fundamental tools for measuring and interpreting the calibration of probabilistic predictors. Calibration measures quantify the degree of miscalibration, and reliability diagrams visualize the structure of this miscalibration. However, the most common constructions of reliability diagrams and calibration measures -- binning and ECE -- both suffer from well-known flaws (e.g. discontinuity). We show that a simple modification fixes both constructions: first smooth the observations using an RBF kernel, then compute the Expected Calibration Error (ECE) of this smoothed function. We prove that with a careful choice of bandwidth, this method yields a calibration measure that is well-behaved in the sense of (B{\l}asiok, Gopalan, Hu, and Nakkiran 2023a) -- a consistent calibration measure. We call this measure the SmoothECE. Moreover, the reliability diagram obtained from this smoothed function visually encodes the SmoothECE, just as binned reliability diagrams encode the BinnedECE. We also provide a Python package with simple, hyperparameter-free methods for measuring and plotting calibration: `pip install relplot\`.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Modern deep learning systems are typically deployed as open-loop function approximators: they map inputs to outputs in a single pass, without regulating how much computation or explanatory effort is spent on a given case. In safety-critical settings, this is brittle: easy and ambiguous inputs receive identical processing, and uncertainty is only read off retrospectively from raw probabilities. We introduce the Surgical Cognitive Interpreter (SCI), a lightweight closed-loop metacognitive control layer that wraps an existing stochastic model and turns prediction into an iterative process. SCI monitors a scalar interpretive state SP(t), here instantiated as a normalized entropy-based confidence signal, and adaptively decides whether to stop, continue sampling, or abstain. The goal is not to improve accuracy per se, but to regulate interpretive error ΔSP and expose a safety signal that tracks when the underlying model is likely to fail. We instantiate SCI around Monte Carlo dropout classifiers in three domains: vision (MNIST digits), medical time series (MIT-BIH arrhythmia), and industrial condition monitoring (rolling-element bearings). In all cases, the controller allocates more inference steps to misclassified inputs than to correct ones (up to about 3-4x on MNIST and bearings, and 1.4x on MIT-BIH). The resulting ΔSP acts as a usable safety signal for detecting misclassifications (AUROC 0.63 on MNIST, 0.70 on MIT-BIH, 0.86 on bearings). Code and reproducibility: https://github.com/vishal-1344/sci

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Verbal confidence elicitation is widely used to extract uncertainty estimates from LLMs. We tested whether seven instruction-tuned open-weight models (3-9B parameters, four families) produce verbalised confidence that meets minimal validity criteria for item-level Type-2 discrimination under minimal numeric elicitation with greedy decoding. In a pre-registered study (OSF: osf.io/azbvx), 524 TriviaQA items were administered under numeric (0-100) and categorical (10-class) elicitation to eight models at Q5_K_M quantisation on consumer hardware, yielding 8,384 deterministic trials. A psychometric validity screen was applied to each model-format cell. All seven instruct models were classified Invalid on numeric confidence (H2 confirmed, 7/7 vs. predicted >=4/7), with a mean ceiling rate of 91.7% (H1 confirmed). Categorical elicitation did not rescue validity. Instead, it disrupted task performance in six of seven models, producing accuracy below 5% (H4 not confirmed). Token-level logprobability did not usefully predict verbalised confidence under the observed variance regime (H5 confirmed, mean cross-validated R^2 < 0.01). Within the reasoning-distilled model, reasoning-trace length showed a strong negative partial correlation with confidence (rho = -0.36, p < .001), consistent with the Reasoning Contamination Effect. These results do not imply that internal uncertainty representations are absent. They show that minimal verbal elicitation fails to preserve internal signals at the output interface in this model-size regime. Psychometric screening should precede any downstream use of such signals.

Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction hinges on the quality of health indicators (HIs), yet existing methods often fail to disentangle complex degradation mechanisms in multi-sensor systems or quantify uncertainty in HI reliability. This paper introduces a novel framework for HI construction, advancing three key contributions. First, we adapt Reconstruction along Projected Pathways (RaPP) as a health indicator (HI) for RUL prediction for the first time, showing that it outperforms traditional reconstruction error metrics. Second, we show that augmenting RaPP-derived HIs with aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) via Monte Carlo dropout and probabilistic latent spaces- significantly improves RUL-prediction robustness. Third, and most critically, we propose indicator groups, a paradigm that isolates sensor subsets to model system-specific degradations, giving rise to our novel method, I-GLIDE which enables interpretable, mechanism-specific diagnostics. Evaluated on data sourced from aerospace and manufacturing systems, our approach achieves marked improvements in accuracy and generalizability compared to state-of-the-art HI methods while providing actionable insights into system failure pathways. This work bridges the gap between anomaly detection and prognostics, offering a principled framework for uncertainty-aware degradation modeling in complex systems.

When a phone-use agent avoids harm, does that show safety, or simply inability to act? Existing evaluations often cannot tell. A harmful outcome may be avoided because the agent recognized the risk and chose the safe action, or because it failed to understand the screen or execute any relevant action at all. These cases have different causes and call for different fixes, yet current benchmarks often merge them under task success, refusal, or final harmful outcome. We address this problem with PhoneSafety, a benchmark of 700 safety-critical moments drawn from real phone interactions across more than 130 apps. Each instance isolates the next decision at a risky moment and asks a simple question: does the model take the safe action, take the unsafe action, or fail to do anything useful? We evaluate eight representative phone-use agents under this framework. Our results reveal two main patterns. First, stronger general phone-use ability does not reliably imply safer choices at risky moments. Models that perform better on ordinary app tasks are not always the ones that behave more safely when the next action matters. Second, failures to do anything useful behave like a capability signal rather than a safety signal: they are concentrated in more visually and operationally demanding settings and remain stable when the evaluation protocol changes. Across models, failures split into two recurring patterns: unsafe choices in settings where the model can act but chooses wrongly, and inability to act in more visually and operationally demanding screens. Overall, a harmless outcome is not enough to count as evidence of safety. Evaluating phone-use agents requires separating unsafe judgment from inability to act.

Evaluating the reliability of news sources is a routine task for journalists and organizations committed to acquiring and disseminating accurate information. Recent research has shown that predicting sources' reliability represents an important first-prior step in addressing additional challenges such as fake news detection and fact-checking. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach for source reliability estimation that leverages reinforcement learning strategies for estimating the reliability degree of news sources. Contrary to previous research, our proposed approach models the problem as the estimation of a reliability degree, and not a reliability label, based on how all the news media sources interact with each other on the Web. We validated the effectiveness of our method on a news media reliability dataset that is an order of magnitude larger than comparable existing datasets. Results show that the estimated reliability degrees strongly correlates with journalists-provided scores (Spearman=0.80) and can effectively predict reliability labels (macro-avg. F_1 score=81.05). We release our implementation and dataset, aiming to provide a valuable resource for the NLP community working on information verification.

It is known that human speech and certain animal vocalizations can convey meaningful content because we can decipher the content that a given utterance does convey. This paper explores an alternative approach to determining whether a signal is meaningful, one that analyzes only the signal itself and is independent of what the conveyed meaning might be. We devise a method that takes a waveform as input and outputs a score indicating its degree of `meaningfulness`. We cluster contiguous portions of the input to minimize the total description length, and then take the length of the code of the assigned cluster labels as meaningfulness score. We evaluate our method empirically, against several baselines, and show that it is the only one to give a high score to human speech in various languages and with various speakers, a moderate score to animal vocalizations from birds and orcas, and a low score to ambient noise from various sources.

Next generations of radio surveys are expected to identify tens of millions of new sources, and identifying and classifying their morphologies will require novel and more efficient methods. Self-Organising Maps (SOMs), a type of unsupervised machine learning, can be used to address this problem. We map 251,259 multi-Gaussian sources from Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS) onto a SOM with discrete neurons. Similarity metrics, such as Euclidean distances, can be used to identify the best-matching neuron or unit (BMU) for each input image. We establish a reliability threshold by visually inspecting a subset of input images and their corresponding BMU. We label the individual neurons based on observed morphologies and these labels are included in our value-added catalogue of RACS sources. Sources for which the Euclidean distance to their BMU is lesssim 5 (accounting for approximately 79% of sources) have an estimated >90% reliability for their SOM-derived morphological labels. This reliability falls to less than 70% at Euclidean distances gtrsim 7. Beyond this threshold it is unlikely that the morphological label will accurately describe a given source. Our catalogue of complex radio sources from RACS with their SOM-derived morphological labels from this work will be made publicly available.

In mobile telecommunications, alarms act as early warning signals. They are triggered when a cell, the basic unit of radio coverage, shuts down or behaves abnormally. This signals a degradation in service quality, which directly affects the customer experience. To fix the issue, operators rely on preset thresholds to decide when an engineer should be sent out. In practice, these thresholds are set manually and remain fixed regardless of the time of day, traffic levels, or overall network conditions. This often leads to serious faults slipping through during busy hours, while minor issues can cause unnecessary callouts when the network is quiet. This paper presents a machine learning framework that automatically predicts four alarm thresholds, audit window duration, inactive time limit, total fluctuation count, and per hour fluctuation limit, from live network behavior. Since no ground truth labels exist for thresholds, we introduce a percentile guided label derivation strategy and evaluate four models on an anonymized dataset of 10,648 cells across three vendors and nine regions from a real 4G network, comprising a Gradient Boosted Trees baseline, a CNN-BiLSTM with attention, the proposed PCTN, and an iTransformer. PCTN performs the best overall with respect to three of the four targets, outperforming a state-of-the-art iTransformer while using 83 percent fewer parameters. Its mixed output heads and dynamic alpha mechanism produce thresholds that are both accurate and interpretable, allowing operators to inspect and adjust the learned policy without retraining. All comparisons are statistically significant at p < 0.001. The framework undergoes daily retraining using new data, which enables the thresholds to constantly adjust to changes in the network.

With the rapid deployment of SCADA systems, how to effectively analyze industrial signals and detect abnormal states is an urgent need for the industry. Due to the significant heterogeneity of these signals, which we summarize as the M5 problem, previous works only focus on small sub-problems and employ specialized models, failing to utilize the synergies between modalities and the powerful scaling law. However, we argue that the M5 signals can be modeled in a unified manner due to the intrinsic similarity. As a result, we propose FISHER, a Foundation model for multi-modal Industrial Signal compreHEnsive Representation. To support arbitrary sampling rates, FISHER considers the increment of sampling rate as the concatenation of sub-band information. Specifically, FISHER takes the STFT sub-band as the modeling unit and adopts a teacher student SSL framework for pre-training. We also develop the RMIS benchmark, which evaluates the representations of M5 industrial signals on multiple health management tasks. Compared with top SSL models, FISHER showcases versatile and outstanding capabilities with a general performance gain up to 5.03%, along with much more efficient scaling curves. We also investigate the scaling law on downstream tasks and derive potential avenues for future works. FISHER is now open-sourced on https://github.com/jianganbai/FISHER

Given a black-box AI system and a task, at what confidence level can a practitioner trust the system's output? We answer with a reliability level -- a single number per system-task pair, derived from self-consistency sampling and conformal calibration, that serves as a black-box deployment gate with exact, finite-sample, distribution-free guarantees. Self-consistency sampling reduces uncertainty exponentially; conformal calibration guarantees correctness within 1/(n+1) of the target level, regardless of the system's errors -- made transparently visible through larger answer sets for harder questions. Weaker models earn lower reliability levels (not accuracy -- see Definition 2.4): GPT-4.1 earns 94.6% on GSM8K and 96.8% on TruthfulQA, while GPT-4.1-nano earns 89.8% on GSM8K and 66.5% on MMLU. We validate across five benchmarks, five models from three families, and both synthetic and real data. Conditional coverage on solvable items exceeds 0.93 across all configurations; sequential stopping reduces API costs by around 50%.

Photoplethysmogram (PPG) and electrocardiogram (ECG) are commonly recorded in intesive care unit (ICU) and operating room (OR). However, the high incidence of poor, incomplete, and inconsistent signal quality, can lead to false alarms or diagnostic inaccuracies. The methods explored so far suffer from limited generalizability, reliance on extensive labeled data, and poor cross-task transferability. To overcome these challenges, we introduce QualityFM, a novel multimodal foundation model for these physiological signals, designed to acquire a general-purpose understanding of signal quality. Our model is pre-trained on an large-scale dataset comprising over 21 million 30-second waveforms and 179,757 hours of data. Our approach involves a dual-track architecture that processes paired physiological signals of differing quality, leveraging a self-distillation strategy where an encoder for high-quality signals is used to guide the training of an encoder for low-quality signals. To efficiently handle long sequential signals and capture essential local quasi-periodic patterns, we integrate a windowed sparse attention mechanism within our Transformer-based model. Furthermore, a composite loss function, which combines direct distillation loss on encoder outputs with indirect reconstruction loss based on power and phase spectra, ensures the preservation of frequency-domain characteristics of the signals. We pre-train three models with varying parameter counts (9.6 M to 319 M) and demonstrate their efficacy and practical value through transfer learning on three distinct clinical tasks: false alarm of ventricular tachycardia detection, the identification of atrial fibrillation and the estimation of arterial blood pressure (ABP) from PPG and ECG signals.

Motion artefacts in magnetic resonance brain images can have a strong impact on diagnostic confidence. The assessment of MR image quality is fundamental before proceeding with the clinical diagnosis. Motion artefacts can alter the delineation of structures such as the brain, lesions or tumours and may require a repeat scan. Otherwise, an inaccurate (e.g. correct pathology but wrong severity) or incorrect diagnosis (e.g. wrong pathology) may occur. "Image quality assessment" as a fast, automated step right after scanning can assist in deciding if the acquired images are diagnostically sufficient. An automated image quality assessment based on the structural similarity index (SSIM) regression through a residual neural network is proposed in this work. Additionally, a classification into different groups - by subdividing with SSIM ranges - is evaluated. Importantly, this method predicts SSIM values of an input image in the absence of a reference ground truth image. The networks were able to detect motion artefacts, and the best performance for the regression and classification task has always been achieved with ResNet-18 with contrast augmentation. The mean and standard deviation of residuals' distribution were mu=-0.0009 and sigma=0.0139, respectively. Whilst for the classification task in 3, 5 and 10 classes, the best accuracies were 97, 95 and 89\%, respectively. The results show that the proposed method could be a tool for supporting neuro-radiologists and radiographers in evaluating image quality quickly.

Multivariate probabilistic time series forecasts are commonly evaluated via proper scoring rules, i.e., functions that are minimal in expectation for the ground-truth distribution. However, this property is not sufficient to guarantee good discrimination in the non-asymptotic regime. In this paper, we provide the first systematic finite-sample study of proper scoring rules for time-series forecasting evaluation. Through a power analysis, we identify the "region of reliability" of a scoring rule, i.e., the set of practical conditions where it can be relied on to identify forecasting errors. We carry out our analysis on a comprehensive synthetic benchmark, specifically designed to test several key discrepancies between ground-truth and forecast distributions, and we gauge the generalizability of our findings to real-world tasks with an application to an electricity production problem. Our results reveal critical shortcomings in the evaluation of multivariate probabilistic forecasts as commonly performed in the literature.

Ensuring the reliability and safety of automated decision-making is crucial. It is well-known that data distribution shifts in machine learning can produce unreliable outcomes. This paper proposes a new approach for measuring the reliability of predictions under distribution shifts. We analyze how the outputs of a trained neural network change using clustering to measure distances between outputs and class centroids. We propose this distance as a metric to evaluate the confidence of predictions under distribution shifts. We assign each prediction to a cluster with centroid representing the mean softmax output for all correct predictions of a given class. We then define a safety threshold for a class as the smallest distance from an incorrect prediction to the given class centroid. We evaluate the approach on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets using a Convolutional Neural Network and a Vision Transformer, respectively. The results show that our approach is consistent across these data sets and network models, and indicate that the proposed metric can offer an efficient way of determining when automated predictions are acceptable and when they should be deferred to human operators given a distribution shift.

The progress in modelling time series and, more generally, sequences of structured data has recently revamped research in anomaly detection. The task stands for identifying abnormal behaviors in financial series, IT systems, aerospace measurements, and the medical domain, where anomaly detection may aid in isolating cases of depression and attend the elderly. Anomaly detection in time series is a complex task since anomalies are rare due to highly non-linear temporal correlations and since the definition of anomalous is sometimes subjective. Here we propose the novel use of Hyperbolic uncertainty for Anomaly Detection (HypAD). HypAD learns self-supervisedly to reconstruct the input signal. We adopt best practices from the state-of-the-art to encode the sequence by an LSTM, jointly learned with a decoder to reconstruct the signal, with the aid of GAN critics. Uncertainty is estimated end-to-end by means of a hyperbolic neural network. By using uncertainty, HypAD may assess whether it is certain about the input signal but it fails to reconstruct it because this is anomalous; or whether the reconstruction error does not necessarily imply anomaly, as the model is uncertain, e.g. a complex but regular input signal. The novel key idea is that a detectable anomaly is one where the model is certain but it predicts wrongly. HypAD outperforms the current state-of-the-art for univariate anomaly detection on established benchmarks based on data from NASA, Yahoo, Numenta, Amazon, and Twitter. It also yields state-of-the-art performance on a multivariate dataset of anomaly activities in elderly home residences, and it outperforms the baseline on SWaT. Overall, HypAD yields the lowest false alarms at the best performance rate, thanks to successfully identifying detectable anomalies.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Reliable application of machine learning is of primary importance to the practical deployment of deep learning methods. A fundamental challenge is that models are often unreliable due to overconfidence. In this paper, we estimate a model's reliability by measuring the agreement between its latent space, and the latent space of a foundation model. However, it is challenging to measure the agreement between two different latent spaces due to their incoherence, \eg, arbitrary rotations and different dimensionality. To overcome this incoherence issue, we design a neighborhood agreement measure between latent spaces and find that this agreement is surprisingly well-correlated with the reliability of a model's predictions. Further, we show that fusing neighborhood agreement into a model's predictive confidence in a post-hoc way significantly improves its reliability. Theoretical analysis and extensive experiments on failure detection across various datasets verify the effectiveness of our method on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings.

Most vehicle predictive maintenance systems rely exclusively on internal diagnostic signals and are validated on deterministic synthetic data, limiting the credibility of reported metrics. This paper presents a simulation-validated proof-of-concept framework for V2X-augmented predictive maintenance, integrating on-board sensor streams with external contextual signals -- road quality, weather, traffic density, and driver behaviour -- acquired via V2X communication and third-party APIs, with inference at the vehicle edge. Field validation on instrumented vehicles is identified as the required next step. Three experiments address common shortcomings of prior work. A feature group ablation study shows that V2X contextual features contribute a 2.6-point F1 gain, with full context removal reducing macro F1 from 0.855 to 0.807. On the AI4I 2020 real-world industrial failure dataset (10,000 samples, five failure modes), LightGBM achieves AUC-ROC of 0.973 under 5-fold stratified CV with SMOTE confined to training folds. A noise sensitivity analysis shows macro F1 remains above 0.88 under low noise and degrades to 0.74 under very high noise. SHAP analysis confirms that V2X and engineered interaction features rank among the top 15 predictors. Edge inference is estimated to reduce latency from 3.5s to under 1.0s versus cloud-only processing.

LLMs are highly sensitive to prompt phrasing, yet standard benchmarks typically report performance using a single prompt, raising concerns about the reliability of such evaluations. In this work, we argue for a stochastic method of moments evaluation over the space of meaning-preserving prompt perturbations. We introduce a formal definition of reliable evaluation that accounts for prompt sensitivity, and suggest ReliableEval - a method for estimating the number of prompt resamplings needed to obtain meaningful results. Using our framework, we stochastically evaluate five frontier LLMs and find that even top-performing models like GPT-4o and Claude-3.7-Sonnet exhibit substantial prompt sensitivity. Our approach is model-, task-, and metric-agnostic, offering a recipe for meaningful and robust LLM evaluation.

Benchmarks shape scientific conclusions about model capabilities and steer model development. This creates a feedback loop: stronger benchmarks drive better models, and better models demand more discriminative benchmarks. Ensuring benchmark reliability is therefore essential for trustworthy evaluation and meaningful progress. In this work, we study benchmark reliability from a distributional perspective and introduce benchmark harmony, which measures how uniformly a model's performance is distributed across the subdomains of a benchmark. We posit that high harmony is a desirable benchmark property, indicating that the aggregate metric reflects uniform competence across subdomains. Across 19 multiple-choice benchmarks and five model families, we map each benchmark onto a mean-variance plane of harmony computed across models, where high mean and low variance signal more reliable evaluation. Our analysis shows that less harmonious benchmarks can give misleading results, since overall accuracy may be disproportionately influenced by specific subdomains. For instance, ARC-Easy is overwhelmed by questions on Biological Concepts, overshadowing other critical subdomains such as Geography, Physics, Chemistry, and Environmental Science. By recommending that harmony should be reported alongside accuracy, we reframe evaluation from simple performance averages to a more robust, distributionally reliable measurement of performance.

Mutual information (MI) is a fundamental measure of statistical dependence between two variables, yet accurate estimation from finite data remains notoriously difficult. No estimator is universally reliable, and common approaches fail in the high-dimensional, undersampled regimes typical of modern experiments. Recent machine learning-based estimators show promise, but their accuracy depends sensitively on dataset size, structure, and hyperparameters, with no accepted tests to detect failures. We close these gaps through a systematic evaluation of classical and neural MI estimators across standard benchmarks and new synthetic datasets tailored to challenging high-dimensional, undersampled regimes. We contribute: (i) a practical protocol for reliable MI estimation with explicit checks for statistical consistency; (ii) confidence intervals (error bars around estimates) that existing neural MI estimator do not provide; and (iii) a new class of probabilistic critics designed for high-dimensional, high-information settings. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our protocol with computational experiments, showing that it consistently matches or surpasses existing methods while uniquely quantifying its own reliability. We show that reliable MI estimation is sometimes achievable even in severely undersampled, high-dimensional datasets, provided they admit accurate low-dimensional representations. This broadens the scope of applicability of neural MI estimators and clarifies when such estimators can be trusted.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

Binary black holes are one of the important sources for the TianQin gravitational wave project. Our research has revealed that, for TianQin, the signal-to-noise ratio of inspiral binary black holes can be computed analytically. This finding is expected to greatly simplify the estimation of detection capabilities for binary black holes. In this paper, we demonstrated the signal-to-noise ratio relationships from stellar-mass black holes to massive black holes. With the all-sky average condition, the signal-to-noise ratio for most binary black hole signals can be determined with a relative error of lesssim10%, with notable deviations only for chirp masses near 1000~M_odot. In contrast, the signal-to-noise ratio without the average includes an additional term, which we refer to as the response factor. Although this term is not easily calculated analytically, we provide a straightforward estimation method with an error margin of 1sigma within 2\%.

Ultra-high-energy neutrinos and cosmic rays are excellent probes of astroparticle physics phenomena. For astroparticle physics analyses, robust and accurate reconstruction of signal parameters such as arrival direction and energy is essential. Radio detection is an established detector concept explored by many observatories; however, current reconstruction methods ignore bin-to-bin noise correlations, which limits reconstruction resolution and, so far, has prevented calculations of event-by-event uncertainties. In this work, we present a likelihood description of neutrino or cosmic-ray signals in radio detectors with correlated noise, as present in all neutrino and cosmic-ray radio detectors. We demonstrate, with simulation studies of both neutrinos and cosmic-ray radio signals, that signal parameters such as energy and direction, including event-by-event uncertainties with correct coverage, can be obtained. This method reduces reconstruction uncertainties and biases compared to previous approaches. Additionally, the Likelihood can be used for event selection and enables differentiable end-to-end detector optimization. The reconstruction code is available through the open-source software NuRadioReco.

Machine unlearning in Vision-Language Models (VLMs) is required for compliance with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), yet current evaluation practices are inconsistent. We present the first systematic study of metric reliability in multimodal unlearning. Five standard metrics, Forget Accuracy (FA), Retain Accuracy (RA), Membership Inference Attack (MIA), Activation Distance (AD), and JS divergence (JS), yield conflicting method rankings across three VQA benchmarks (MLLMU-Bench, UnLOK-VQA, MMUBench). Kendall tau analysis over 36 unlearned LLaVA-1.5-7B models reveals two opposing clusters, {FA, RA, MIA} and {AD, JS}, with tau_FA_AD = -0.26, reproduced on BLIP-2 OPT-2.7B. Agreement is lower in multimodal VQA (average tau = 0.086) than in unimodal classification (average tau = 0.158; difference = 0.072), indicating that dual image-and-text pathways amplify inconsistency. We introduce the Unified Quality Score (UQS), a composite metric with weights derived from each metric's Spearman correlation with the oracle distance d(M_hat, M_star), where M_star is the oracle model retrained only on the retain set. RA shows the strongest reliability (rho = 0.484, p = 0.003), while FA is negatively correlated (rho = -0.418, p = 0.011). UQS yields stable rankings under 100 random weight perturbations (tau = 0.647 +- 0.262). We release the benchmark, 36 checkpoints, and an interactive leaderboard. Code and pre-computed results are available at https://github.com/neurips26/UnifiedUnl.

In speech enhancement and source separation, signal-to-noise ratio is a ubiquitous objective measure of denoising/separation quality. A decade ago, the BSS_eval toolkit was developed to give researchers worldwide a way to evaluate the quality of their algorithms in a simple, fair, and hopefully insightful way: it attempted to account for channel variations, and to not only evaluate the total distortion in the estimated signal but also split it in terms of various factors such as remaining interference, newly added artifacts, and channel errors. In recent years, hundreds of papers have been relying on this toolkit to evaluate their proposed methods and compare them to previous works, often arguing that differences on the order of 0.1 dB proved the effectiveness of a method over others. We argue here that the signal-to-distortion ratio (SDR) implemented in the BSS_eval toolkit has generally been improperly used and abused, especially in the case of single-channel separation, resulting in misleading results. We propose to use a slightly modified definition, resulting in a simpler, more robust measure, called scale-invariant SDR (SI-SDR). We present various examples of critical failure of the original SDR that SI-SDR overcomes.

Time series data and their time-frequency representation from gravitational-wave interferometers present multiple opportunities for the use of artificial intelligence methods associated with signal and image processing. Closely connected with this is the real-time aspect associated with gravitational-wave interferometers and the astrophysical observations they perform; the discovery potential of these instruments can be significantly enhanced when data processing can be achieved in O(1s) timescales. In this work, we introduce a novel signal and noise identification tool based on the YOLO (You Only Look Once) object detection framework. For its application into gravitational waves, we will refer to it as GW-YOLO. This tool can provide scene identification capabilities and essential information regarding whether an observed transient is any combination of noise and signal. Additionally, it supplies detailed time-frequency coordinates of the detected objects in the form of pixel masks, an essential property that can be used to understand and characterize astrophysical sources, as well as instrumental noise. The simultaneous identification of noise and signal, combined with precise pixel-level localization, represents a significant advancement in gravitational-wave data analysis. Our approach yields a 50\% detection efficiency for binary black hole signals at a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 15 when such signals overlap with transient noise artifacts. When noise artifacts overlap with binary neutron star signals, our algorithm attains 50\% detection efficiency at an SNR of 30. This presents the first quantitative assessment of the ability to detect astrophysical events overlapping with realistic, instrument noise present in gravitational-wave interferometers.

When considering the accuracy of sensors in an automated vehicle (AV), it is not sufficient to evaluate the performance of any given sensor in isolation. Rather, the performance of any individual sensor must be considered in the context of the overall system design. Techniques like redundancy and different sensing modalities can reduce the chances of a sensing failure. Additionally, the use of safety models is essential to understanding whether any particular sensing failure is relevant. Only when the entire system design is taken into account can one properly understand the meaning of safety-relevant sensing failures in an AV. In this paper, we will consider what should actually constitute a sensing failure, how safety models play an important role in mitigating potential failures, how a system-level approach to safety will deliver a safe and scalable AV, and what an acceptable sensing failure rate should be considering the full picture of an AV's architecture.

Ambient AI "scribe" systems promise to reduce clinical documentation burden, but automatic speech recognition (ASR) errors can remain unnoticed without careful review, and high-quality human reference transcripts are often unavailable for calibrating uncertainty. We investigate whether cross-model disagreement among heterogeneous ASR systems can act as a reference-free uncertainty signal to prioritize human verification in medical transcription workflows. Using 50 publicly available medical education audio clips (8 h 14 min), we transcribed each clip with eight ASR systems spanning commercial APIs and open-source engines. We aligned multi-model outputs, built consensus pseudo-references, and quantified token-level agreement using a majority-strength metric; we further characterized disagreements by type (content vs. punctuation/formatting) and assessed per-model agreement via leave-one-model-out (jackknife) consensus scoring. Inter-model reliability was low (ICC[2,1] = 0.131), indicating heterogeneous failure modes across systems. Across 76,398 evaluated token positions, 72.1% showed near-unanimous agreement (7-8 models), while 2.5% fell into high-risk bands (0-3 models), with high-risk mass varying from 0.7% to 11.4% across accent groups. Low-agreement regions were enriched for content disagreements, with the content fraction increasing from 53.9% to 73.9% across quintiles of high-risk mass. These results suggest that cross-model disagreement provides a sparse, localizable signal that can surface potentially unreliable transcript spans without human-verified references, enabling targeted review; clinical accuracy of flagged regions remains to be established.

LLM-judged benchmarks are increasingly used to evaluate complex model behaviors, yet their design introduces failure modes absent in conventional ground-truth based benchmarks. We argue that without tight objectives and verifiable constructions, benchmark rankings can produce high-confidence rankings that are in fact largely noise. We introduce two mechanisms to diagnose these issues. Schematic adherence quantifies how much of a judge's overall verdict is explained by the explicit evaluation schema, revealing unexplained variance when judges deviate from their own rubric. Psychometric validity aggregates internal consistency and discriminant validity signals to quantify irreducible uncertainty in any benchmarking run. Applying these tools to Arena-Hard Auto, we find severe schema incoherence and factor collapse across popular judges: for example, unexplained variance exceeding 90 percent for DeepSeek-R1-32B and factor correlations above 0.93 for most criteria. We also show that the ELO-style aggregation used by Arena-Hard Auto collapses and masks genuine ranking uncertainty. Our results highlight design failures that undermine validity and offer actionable principles for building better-scoped, reliability-aware LLM-judged benchmarks. We release our code at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/judgment-to-noise-947D/README.md

Handwritten STEM exams capture open-ended reasoning and diagrams, but manual grading is slow and difficult to scale. We present an end-to-end workflow for grading scanned handwritten engineering quizzes with multimodal large language models (LLMs) that preserves the standard exam process (A4 paper, unconstrained student handwriting). The lecturer provides only a handwritten reference solution (100%) and a short set of grading rules; the reference is converted into a text-only summary that conditions grading without exposing the reference scan. Reliability is achieved through a multi-stage design with a format/presence check to prevent grading blank answers, an ensemble of independent graders, supervisor aggregation, and rigid templates with deterministic validation to produce auditable, machine-parseable reports. We evaluate the frozen pipeline in a clean-room protocol on a held-out real course quiz in Slovenian, including hand-drawn circuit schematics. With state-of-the-art backends (GPT-5.2 and Gemini-3 Pro), the full pipeline achieves approx8-point mean absolute difference to lecturer grades with low bias and an estimated manual-review trigger rate of approx17% at D_{max}=40. Ablations show that trivial prompting and removing the reference solution substantially degrade accuracy and introduce systematic over-grading, confirming that structured prompting and reference grounding are essential.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Devising indicative evaluation metrics for the image generation task remains an open problem. The most widely used metric for measuring the similarity between real and generated images has been the Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) score. Because it does not differentiate the fidelity and diversity aspects of the generated images, recent papers have introduced variants of precision and recall metrics to diagnose those properties separately. In this paper, we show that even the latest version of the precision and recall metrics are not reliable yet. For example, they fail to detect the match between two identical distributions, they are not robust against outliers, and the evaluation hyperparameters are selected arbitrarily. We propose density and coverage metrics that solve the above issues. We analytically and experimentally show that density and coverage provide more interpretable and reliable signals for practitioners than the existing metrics. Code: https://github.com/clovaai/generative-evaluation-prdc.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) is effective for training large language models on deterministic outcome reasoning tasks. Prior work shows RLVR works with few prompts, but prompt selection is often based only on training-accuracy variance, leading to unstable optimization directions and weaker transfer. We revisit prompt selection from a mechanism-level view and argue that an effective minibatch should provide both (i) a reliable positive anchor and (ii) explicit negative learning signals from rare failures. Based on this principle, we propose positive--negative pairing: at each update, we sample a hard-but-solvable q^{+} and an easy-but-brittle prompt q^{-}(high success rate but not perfect), characterized by low and high empirical success rates under multiple rollouts. We further introduce Weighted GRPO, which reweights binary outcomes at the pair level and uses group-normalized advantages to amplify rare successes on q^{+} into sharp positive guidance while turning rare failures on q^{-} into strong negative penalties. This bidirectional signal provides informative learning feedback for both successes and failures, improving sample efficiency without suppressing exploration. On Qwen2.5-Math-7B, a single paired minibatch per update consistently outperforms a GRPO baseline that selects two prompts via commonly used variance-based selection heuristics: AIME~2025 Pass@8 improves from 16.8 to 22.2, and AMC23 Pass@64 from 94.0 to 97.0, while remaining competitive with large-scale RLVR trained from a pool of 1209 training prompts. Similar gains are observed on Qwen2.5-Math-7B-Instruct.

Electrocardiography (ECG) signals are often degraded by noise, which complicates diagnosis in clinical and wearable settings. This study proposes a diffusion-based framework for ECG noise quantification via reconstruction-based anomaly detection, addressing annotation inconsistencies and the limited generalizability of conventional methods. We introduce a distributional evaluation using the Wasserstein-1 distance (W_1), comparing the reconstruction error distributions between clean and noisy ECGs to mitigate inconsistent annotations. Our final model achieved robust noise quantification using only three reverse diffusion steps. The model recorded a macro-average W_1 score of 1.308 across the benchmarks, outperforming the next-best method by over 48%. External validations demonstrated strong generalizability, supporting the exclusion of low-quality segments to enhance diagnostic accuracy and enable timely clinical responses to signal degradation. The proposed method enhances clinical decision-making, diagnostic accuracy, and real-time ECG monitoring capabilities, supporting future advancements in clinical and wearable ECG applications.

We propose the Signal Dice Similarity Coefficient (SDSC), a structure-aware metric function for time series self-supervised representation learning. Most Self-Supervised Learning (SSL) methods for signals commonly adopt distance-based objectives such as mean squared error (MSE), which are sensitive to amplitude, invariant to waveform polarity, and unbounded in scale. These properties hinder semantic alignment and reduce interpretability. SDSC addresses this by quantifying structural agreement between temporal signals based on the intersection of signed amplitudes, derived from the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC).Although SDSC is defined as a structure-aware metric, it can be used as a loss by subtracting from 1 and applying a differentiable approximation of the Heaviside function for gradient-based optimization. A hybrid loss formulation is also proposed to combine SDSC with MSE, improving stability and preserving amplitude where necessary. Experiments on forecasting and classification benchmarks demonstrate that SDSC-based pre-training achieves comparable or improved performance over MSE, particularly in in-domain and low-resource scenarios. The results suggest that structural fidelity in signal representations enhances the semantic representation quality, supporting the consideration of structure-aware metrics as viable alternatives to conventional distance-based methods.

We implement and benchmark on IBM Quantum hardware the circuit family proposed by Violaris for estimating operational inter-branch communication witnesses, defined as correlations in classical measurement records produced by compiled Wigner's-friend-style circuits. We realize a five-qubit instance of the protocol as an inter-register message-transfer pattern within a single circuit, rather than physical signaling, and evaluate its behavior under realistic device noise and compilation constraints. The circuit encodes branch-conditioned evolution of an observer subsystem whose dynamics depend on a control qubit, followed by a controlled transfer operation that probes correlations between conditional measurement contexts. Executing on the ibm_fez backend with 20000 shots, we observe population-based visibility of 0.877, coherence witnesses of 0.840 and -0.811 along orthogonal axes, and a phase-sensitive magnitude of approximately 1.17. While the visibility metric is insensitive to some classes of dephasing, the coherence witnesses provide complementary sensitivity to off-diagonal noise. This work does not test or discriminate among interpretations of quantum mechanics. Instead, it provides a reproducible operational constraint pipeline for evaluating detectability of non-ideal channels relative to calibrated device noise.

An industrial process includes many devices, variables, and sub-processes that are physically or electronically interconnected. These interconnections imply some level of correlation between different process variables. Since most of the alarms in a process plant are defined on process variables, alarms are also correlated. However, this can be a nuisance to operators, for one fault might trigger a, sometimes large, number of alarms. So, it is essential to find and correct correlated alarms. In this paper, we study different methods and techniques proposed to measure correlation or similarity between alarms. The similarity indices are first analytically calculated and then studied and compared. The results are also validated using Monte-Carlo simulation.

High-precision modeling of systems is one of the main areas of industrial data analysis. Models of systems, their digital twins, are used to predict their behavior under various conditions. We have developed several models of a storage system using machine learning-based generative models. The system consists of several components: hard disk drive (HDD) and solid-state drive (SSD) storage pools with different RAID schemes and cache. Each storage component is represented by a probabilistic model that describes the probability distribution of the component performance in terms of IOPS and latency, depending on their configuration and external data load parameters. The results of the experiments demonstrate the errors of 4-10 % for IOPS and 3-16 % for latency predictions depending on the components and models of the system. The predictions show up to 0.99 Pearson correlation with Little's law, which can be used for unsupervised reliability checks of the models. In addition, we present novel data sets that can be used for benchmarking regression algorithms, conditional generative models, and uncertainty estimation methods in machine learning.

Separating a stochastic gravitational wave background (SGWB) from noise is a challenging statistical task. One approach to establishing a detection criterion for the SGWB is using Bayesian evidence. If the evidence ratio (Bayes factor) between models with and without the signal exceeds a certain threshold, the signal is considered detected. We present a formalism to compute the averaged Bayes factor, incorporating instrumental-noise and SGWB uncertainties. As an example, we consider the case of power-law-shaped SGWB in LISA and generate the corresponding bayesian sensitivity curve. Unlike existing methods in the literature, which typically neglect uncertainties in both the signal and noise, our approach provides a reliable and realistic alternative. This flexible framework opens avenues for more robust stochastic gravitational wave background detection across gravitational-wave experiments.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

Reliable out-of-distribution (OOD) detection is fundamental to implementing safer modern machine learning (ML) systems. In this paper, we introduce Igeood, an effective method for detecting OOD samples. Igeood applies to any pre-trained neural network, works under various degrees of access to the ML model, does not require OOD samples or assumptions on the OOD data but can also benefit (if available) from OOD samples. By building on the geodesic (Fisher-Rao) distance between the underlying data distributions, our discriminator can combine confidence scores from the logits outputs and the learned features of a deep neural network. Empirically, we show that Igeood outperforms competing state-of-the-art methods on a variety of network architectures and datasets.

Existing benchmarks for tool-using LLM agents primarily report single-run success rates and miss reliability properties required in production. We introduce ReliabilityBench, a benchmark for evaluating agent reliability across three dimensions: (i) consistency under repeated execution using pass^k, (ii) robustness to semantically equivalent task perturbations at intensity ε, and (iii) fault tolerance under controlled tool/API failures at intensity λ. ReliabilityBench contributes a unified reliability surface R(k,ε,λ), action metamorphic relations that define correctness via end-state equivalence rather than text similarity, and a chaos-engineering-style fault injection framework (timeouts, rate limits, partial responses, schema drift). We evaluate two models (Gemini 2.0 Flash, GPT-4o) and two agent architectures (ReAct, Reflexion) across four domains (scheduling, travel, customer support, e-commerce) over 1,280 episodes. Perturbations alone reduce success from 96.9% at ε=0 to 88.1% at ε=0.2. Rate limiting is the most damaging fault in ablations. ReAct is more robust than Reflexion under combined stress, and Gemini 2.0 Flash achieves comparable reliability to GPT-4o at much lower cost. ReliabilityBench provides a systematic framework for assessing production readiness of LLM agents.

Instruction tuned reasoning models are increasingly deployed with safety classifiers trained on frozen embeddings, assuming representation stability across model updates. We systematically investigate this assumption and find it fails: normalized perturbations of magnitude σ=0.02 (corresponding to approx 1^circ angular drift on the embedding sphere) reduce classifier performance from 85% to 50% ROC-AUC. Critically, mean confidence only drops 14%, producing dangerous silent failures where 72% of misclassifications occur with high confidence, defeating standard monitoring. We further show that instruction-tuned models exhibit 20% worse class separability than base models, making aligned systems paradoxically harder to safeguard. Our findings expose a fundamental fragility in production AI safety architectures and challenge the assumption that safety mechanisms transfer across model versions.

The increasing use of Machine Learning (ML) components embedded in autonomous systems -- so-called Learning-Enabled Systems (LESs) -- has resulted in the pressing need to assure their functional safety. As for traditional functional safety, the emerging consensus within both, industry and academia, is to use assurance cases for this purpose. Typically assurance cases support claims of reliability in support of safety, and can be viewed as a structured way of organising arguments and evidence generated from safety analysis and reliability modelling activities. While such assurance activities are traditionally guided by consensus-based standards developed from vast engineering experience, LESs pose new challenges in safety-critical application due to the characteristics and design of ML models. In this article, we first present an overall assurance framework for LESs with an emphasis on quantitative aspects, e.g., breaking down system-level safety targets to component-level requirements and supporting claims stated in reliability metrics. We then introduce a novel model-agnostic Reliability Assessment Model (RAM) for ML classifiers that utilises the operational profile and robustness verification evidence. We discuss the model assumptions and the inherent challenges of assessing ML reliability uncovered by our RAM and propose solutions to practical use. Probabilistic safety argument templates at the lower ML component-level are also developed based on the RAM. Finally, to evaluate and demonstrate our methods, we not only conduct experiments on synthetic/benchmark datasets but also scope our methods with case studies on simulated Autonomous Underwater Vehicles and physical Unmanned Ground Vehicles.

Coincident multimessenger observations of cosmic sources can offer numerous benefits, especially when used in the context of synergistic astrophysics. One significant advantage is enhancing the detection significance of separate detectors by correlating their data and assuming joint emission. We have formulated an approach for updating the Bayesian posterior probability of an astrophysical origin, namely p_{rm astro}, relying on multimessenger coincidences assuming an emission model. The description is applicable to any combination of messengers. We demonstrated the formalism for the gravitational waves and high-energy neutrinos case. Applying our method to the public data of candidate coincident high-energy neutrinos with subthreshold gravitational-wave triggers, we found that in the case of highly energetic neutrino coincidences, p_{rm astro} can increase from approximately sim 0.1 to sim 0.9. The amount of improvement depends on the assumed joint emission model. If models are trusted, the marked improvement makes subthreshold detections much more confident. Moreover, the model dependency can also be used to test the consistency of different models. This work is a crucial step toward the goal of uniting all detectors on equal footing into a statistically integrated, Earth-sized observatory for comprehensive multimessenger astrophysics.

Agentic applications based on large language models increasingly rely on multi-step interaction loops involving planning, action execution, and environment feedback. While such systems are now deployed at scale, improving them post-deployment remains challenging. Agent trajectories are voluminous and non-deterministic, and reviewing each one, whether through human review or auxiliary LLMs, is slow and cost-prohibitive. We propose a lightweight, signal-based framework for triaging agentic interaction trajectories. Our approach computes cheap, broadly applicable signals from live interactions and attaches them as structured attributes for trajectory triage, identifying interactions likely to be informative without affecting online agent behavior. We organize signals into a coarse-grained taxonomy spanning interaction (misalignment, stagnation, disengagement, satisfaction), execution (failure, loop), and environment (exhaustion), designed for computation without model calls. In a controlled annotation study on τ-bench, a widely used benchmark for tool-augmented agent evaluation, we show that signal-based sampling achieves an 82\% informativeness rate compared to 74\% for heuristic filtering and 54\% for random sampling, with a 1.52x efficiency gain per informative trajectory. The advantage is robust across reward strata and task domains, confirming that signals provide genuine per-trajectory informativeness gains rather than merely oversampling obvious failures. These results show that lightweight signals can serve as practical sampling infrastructure for agentic systems, and suggest a path toward preference data construction and post-deployment optimization.

With the rapid development of global industrial production, the demand for reliability in power equipment has been continuously increasing. Ensuring the stability of power system operations requires accurate methods to detect potential faults in power equipment, thereby guaranteeing the normal supply of electrical energy. In this article, the performance of YOLOv5, YOLOv8, YOLOv9, YOLOv10, and the state-of-the-art YOLOv11 methods was comprehensively evaluated for power equipment object detection. Experimental results demonstrate that the mean average precision (mAP) on a public dataset for power equipment was 54.4%, 55.5%, 43.8%, 48.0%, and 57.2%, respectively, with the YOLOv11 achieving the highest detection performance. Moreover, the YOLOv11 outperformed other methods in terms of recall rate and exhibited superior performance in reducing false detections. In conclusion, the findings indicate that the YOLOv11 model provides a reliable and effective solution for power equipment object detection, representing a promising approach to enhancing the operational reliability of power systems.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

Semiconductor lasers have been rapidly evolving to meet the demands of next-generation optical networks. This imposes much more stringent requirements on the laser reliability, which are dominated by degradation mechanisms (e.g., sudden degradation) limiting the semiconductor laser lifetime. Physics-based approaches are often used to characterize the degradation behavior analytically, yet explicit domain knowledge and accurate mathematical models are required. Building such models can be very challenging due to a lack of a full understanding of the complex physical processes inducing the degradation under various operating conditions. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we propose a new data-driven approach, extracting useful insights from the operational monitored data to predict the degradation trend without requiring any specific knowledge or using any physical model. The proposed approach is based on an unsupervised technique, a conditional variational autoencoder, and validated using vertical-cavity surface-emitting laser (VCSEL) and tunable edge emitting laser reliability data. The experimental results confirm that our model (i) achieves a good degradation prediction and generalization performance by yielding an F1 score of 95.3%, (ii) outperforms several baseline ML based anomaly detection techniques, and (iii) helps to shorten the aging tests by early predicting the failed devices before the end of the test and thereby saving costs

The quickly increasing data traffic and the user demand for a full coverage of mobile services anywhere and anytime are leading mobile networking into a future of small cell networks. However, due to the high-density and randomness of small cell networks, there are several technical challenges. In this paper, we investigate two critical issues: best signal quality and mobility management. Under the assumptions that base stations are uniformly distributed in a ring shaped region and that shadowings are lognormal, independent and identically distributed, we prove that when the number of sites in the ring tends to infinity, then (i) the maximum signal strength received at the center of the ring tends in distribution to a Gumbel distribution when properly renormalized, and (ii) it is asymptotically independent of the interference. Using these properties, we derive the distribution of the best signal quality. Furthermore, an optimized random cell scanning scheme is proposed, based on the evaluation of the optimal number of sites to be scanned for maximizing the user data throughput.

Predicting the remaining useful life (RUL) of ball bearings is an active area of research, where novel machine learning techniques are continuously being applied to predict degradation trends and anticipate failures before they occur. However, few studies have explicitly addressed the challenge of handling censored data, where information about a specific event (\eg mechanical failure) is incomplete or only partially observed. To address this issue, we introduce a novel and flexible method for early fault detection using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence and RUL estimation using survival analysis that naturally supports censored data. We demonstrate our approach in the XJTU-SY dataset using a 5-fold cross-validation strategy across three different operating conditions. When predicting the time to failure for bearings under the highest load (C1, 12.0 kN and 2100 RPM) with 25% random censoring, our approach achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 14.7 minutes (95% CI = 13.6-15.8) using a linear CoxPH model, and an MAE of 12.6 minutes (95% CI = 11.8-13.4) using a nonlinear Random Survival Forests model, compared to an MAE of 18.5 minutes (95% CI = 17.4-19.6) using a linear LASSO model that does not support censoring. Moreover, our approach achieves a mean cumulative relative accuracy (CRA) of 0.7586 over 5 bearings under the highest load, which improves over several state-of-the-art baselines. Our work highlights the importance of considering censored data as part of the model design when building predictive models for early fault detection and RUL estimation.

In the age of open and free information, a concerning trend of reliance on AI is emerging. However, existing AI tools struggle to evaluate the credibility of information and to justify their assessments. Hence, there is a growing need for systems that can help users evaluate the trustworthiness of online information. Although major search engines incorporate AI features, they often lack clear reliability indicators. We present TrueGL, a model that makes trustworthy search results more accessible. The model is a fine-tuned version of IBM's Granite-1B, trained on the custom dataset and integrated into a search engine with a reliability scoring system. We evaluate the system using prompt engineering and assigning each statement a continuous reliability score from 0.1 to 1, then instructing the model to return a textual explanation alongside the score. Each model's predicted scores are measured against real scores using standard evaluation metrics. TrueGL consistently outperforms other small-scale LLMs and rule-based approaches across all experiments on key evaluation metrics, including MAE, RMSE, and R2. The model's high accuracy, broad content coverage, and ease of use make trustworthy information more accessible and help reduce the spread of false or misleading content online. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/AlgazinovAleksandr/TrueGL, and our model is publicly released at https://huggingface.co/JoydeepC/trueGL.

Corruption studies, the primary tool for evaluating chain-of-thought (CoT) faithfulness, identify which chain positions are "computationally important" by measuring accuracy when steps are replaced with errors. We identify a systematic confound: for chains with explicit terminal answer statements, the dominant format in standard benchmarks, corruption studies detect where the answer text appears, not where computation occurs. A within-dataset format ablation provides the key evidence: on standard GSM8K chains ending with "the answer is X," removing only the answer statement, preserving all reasoning, collapses suffix sensitivity ~19x at 3B (N=300, p=0.022). Conflicting-answer experiments quantify the causal mechanism: at 7B, CC accuracy drops to near-zero (<=0.02) across five architecture families; the followed-wrong rate spans 0.63-1.00 at 3B-7B and attenuates at larger scales (0.300 at Phi-4-14B, ~0.01 at 32B). A within-stable 7B replication (9.3x attenuation, N=76, p=7.8e-3; Qwen3-8B N=299, p=0.004) provides converging evidence, and the pattern replicates on MATH (DeepSeek-R1-7B: 10.9x suffix-survival recovery). On chains without answer suffixes the same protocol identifies the prefix as load-bearing (Delta=-0.77, p<10^-12). Generation-time probes confirm a dissociation: the answer is not early-determined during generation (early commitment <5%), yet at consumption time model outputs systematically follow the explicit answer text. The format-determination effect persists through 14B (8.5x ratio, p=0.001) and converges toward zero at 32B. We propose a three-prerequisite protocol (question-only control, format characterization, all-position sweep) as a minimum standard for corruption-based faithfulness studies.

This paper introduces a structural equation formulation that gives rise to a new family of quasi-periodic Gaussian processes, useful to process a broad class of natural and physiological signals. The proposed formulation simplifies generation and forecasting, and provides hyperparameter estimates, which we exploit in a convergent and consistent iterative estimation algorithm. A bootstrap approach for standard error estimation and confidence intervals is also provided. We demonstrate the computational and scaling benefits of the proposed approach on a broad class of problems, including water level tidal analysis, CO_{2} emission data, and sunspot numbers data. By leveraging the structural equations, our method reduces the cost of likelihood evaluations and predictions from O(k^2 p^2) to O(p^2), significantly improving scalability.

Reinforcement learning drives recent advances in LLM reasoning and agentic capabilities, yet current approaches struggle with both exploration and exploitation. Exploration suffers from low success rates on difficult tasks and high costs of repeated rollouts from scratch. Exploitation suffers from coarse credit assignment and training instability: Trajectory-level rewards penalize valid prefixes for later errors, and failure-dominated groups overwhelm the few positive signals, leaving optimization without constructive direction. To this end, we propose R^3L, Reflect-then-Retry Reinforcement Learning with Language-Guided Exploration, Pivotal Credit, and Positive Amplification. To synthesize high-quality trajectories, R^3L shifts from stochastic sampling to active synthesis via reflect-then-retry, leveraging language feedback to diagnose errors, transform failed attempts into successful ones, and reduce rollout costs by restarting from identified failure points. With errors diagnosed and localized, Pivotal Credit Assignment updates only the diverging suffix where contrastive signals exist, excluding the shared prefix from gradient update. Since failures dominate on difficult tasks and reflect-then-retry produces off-policy data, risking training instability, Positive Amplification upweights successful trajectories to ensure positive signals guide the optimization process. Experiments on agentic and reasoning tasks demonstrate 5\% to 52\% relative improvements over baselines while maintaining training stability. Our code is released at https://github.com/shiweijiezero/R3L.

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

In order to minimize the generalization error in neural networks, a novel technique to identify overfitting phenomena when training the learner is formally introduced. This enables support of a reliable and trustworthy early stopping condition, thus improving the predictive power of that type of modeling. Our proposal exploits the correlation over time in a collection of online indicators, namely characteristic functions for indicating if a set of hypotheses are met, associated with a range of independent stopping conditions built from a canary judgment to evaluate the presence of overfitting. That way, we provide a formal basis for decision making in terms of interrupting the learning process. As opposed to previous approaches focused on a single criterion, we take advantage of subsidiarities between independent assessments, thus seeking both a wider operating range and greater diagnostic reliability. With a view to illustrating the effectiveness of the halting condition described, we choose to work in the sphere of natural language processing, an operational continuum increasingly based on machine learning. As a case study, we focus on parser generation, one of the most demanding and complex tasks in the domain. The selection of cross-validation as a canary function enables an actual comparison with the most representative early stopping conditions based on overfitting identification, pointing to a promising start toward an optimal bias and variance control.

Combined electric power system and High-Altitude Electromagnetic Pulse (HEMP) models are being developed to determine the effect of a HEMP on the US power grid. The work relies primarily on deterministic methods; however, it is computationally untenable to evaluate the E1 HEMP response of large numbers of grid components distributed across a large interconnection. Further, the deterministic assessment of these components' failures are largely unachievable. E1 HEMP laboratory testing of the components is accomplished, but is expensive, leaving few data points to construct failure models of grid components exposed to E1 HEMP. The use of Bayesian priors, developed using the subject matter expertise, combined with the minimal test data in a Bayesian inference process, provides the basis for the development of more robust and cost-effective statistical component failure models. These can be used with minimal computational burden in a simulation environment such as sampling of Cumulative Distribution Functions (CDFs).

Electroencephalography (EEG) is a cornerstone of brain-computer interfaces and clinical neuroscience, yet deep learning models are typically trained and evaluated under a single, unreported preprocessing pipeline. We formalize preprocessing choices as a counterfactual intervention space and show that EEG predictions are surprisingly unstable under this space: across six datasets spanning four paradigms, up to 42% of trial-level predictions flip when only the preprocessing changes, a variability that standard uncertainty methods do not explicitly quantify because they condition on a fixed preprocessing pipeline. We provide three tools to make this instability measurable, decomposable, and reducible. First, a Walsh-Hadamard decomposition of the 2^7 pipeline space reveals that sensitivity is near-additive in practice under the binary intervention design, enabling efficient step-by-step optimization. Second, we introduce Preprocessing Uncertainty (PU), a per-trial diagnostic that captures a dimension of instability complementary to model-based confidence. Third, we study Normalized Adaptive PGI (NA-PGI), a graph-structured regularizer that exploits the compositional structure of preprocessing interventions as one mitigation strategy with clear scope conditions.

As large language models increase in capability, researchers have started to conduct surveys of all kinds on these models with varying scientific motivations. In this work, we examine what we can learn from a model's survey responses on the basis of the well-established American Community Survey (ACS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. Evaluating more than a dozen different models, varying in size from a few hundred million to ten billion parameters, hundreds of thousands of times each on questions from the ACS, we systematically establish two dominant patterns. First, smaller models have a significant position and labeling bias, for example, towards survey responses labeled with the letter "A". This A-bias diminishes, albeit slowly, as model size increases. Second, when adjusting for this labeling bias through randomized answer ordering, models still do not trend toward US population statistics or those of any cognizable population. Rather, models across the board trend toward uniformly random aggregate statistics over survey responses. This pattern is robust to various different ways of prompting the model, including what is the de-facto standard. Our findings demonstrate that aggregate statistics of a language model's survey responses lack the signals found in human populations. This absence of statistical signal cautions about the use of survey responses from large language models at present time.

Many deployments must compare candidate language models for safety before a labeled benchmark exists for the relevant language, sector, or regulatory regime. We formalize this setting as benchmarkless comparative safety scoring and specify the contract under which a scenario-based audit can be interpreted as deployment evidence. Scores are valid only under a fixed scenario pack, rubric, auditor, judge, sampling configuration, and rerun budget. Because no labels are available, we replace ground-truth agreement with an instrumental-validity chain: responsiveness to a controlled safe-versus-abliterated contrast, dominance of target-driven variance over auditor and judge artifacts, and stability across reruns. We instantiate the chain in SimpleAudit, a local-first scoring instrument, and validate it on a Norwegian safety pack. Safe and abliterated targets separate with AUROC values between 0.89 and 1.00, target identity is the dominant variance component (η^2 approx 0.52), and severity profiles stabilize by ten reruns. Applying the same chain to Petri shows that it admits both tools. The substantial differences arise upstream of the chain, in claim-contract enforcement and deployment fit. A Norwegian public-sector procurement case comparing Borealis and Gemma 3 demonstrates the resulting evidence in practice: the safer model depends on scenario category and risk measure. Consequently, scores, matched deltas, critical rates, uncertainty, and the auditor and judge used must be reported together rather than collapsed into a single ranking.

Three-phase asynchronous motor are fundamental components in industrial systems, and their failure can lead to significant operational downtime and economic losses. Vibration and current signals are effective indicators for monitoring motor health and diagnosing faults. However, motors in real applications often operate under variable conditions such as fluctuating speeds and loads, which complicate the fault diagnosis process. This paper presents a comprehensive dataset collected from a three-phase asynchronous motor under various fault types and severities, operating under diverse speed and load conditions. The dataset includes both single faults and mechanical-electrical compound faults, such as rotor unbalance, stator winding short circuits, bearing faults, and their combinations. Data were acquired under both steady and transitional conditions, with signals including triaxial vibration, three-phase currents, torque, and key-phase signals. This dataset supports the development and validation of robust fault diagnosis methods for electric motors under realistic operating conditions.

Distinction of OFDM signals from single carrier signals is highly important for adaptive receiver algorithms and signal identification applications. OFDM signals exhibit Gaussian characteristics in time domain and fourth order cumulants of Gaussian distributed signals vanish in contrary to the cumulants of other signals. Thus fourth order cumulants can be utilized for OFDM signal identification. In this paper, first, formulations of the estimates of the fourth order cumulants for OFDM signals are provided. Then it is shown these estimates are affected significantly from the wireless channel impairments, frequency offset, phase offset and sampling mismatch. To overcome these problems, a general chi-square constant false alarm rate Gaussianity test which employs estimates of cumulants and their covariances is adapted to the specific case of wireless OFDM signals. Estimation of the covariance matrix of the fourth order cumulants are greatly simplified peculiar to the OFDM signals. A measurement setup is developed to analyze the performance of the identification method and for comparison purposes. A parametric measurement analysis is provided depending on modulation order, signal to noise ratio, number of symbols, and degree of freedom of the underlying test. The proposed method outperforms statistical tests which are based on fixed thresholds or empirical values, while a priori information requirement and complexity of the proposed method are lower than the coherent identification techniques.

We establish a new theoretical framework for learning under multi-class, instance-dependent label noise. This framework casts learning with label noise as a form of domain adaptation, in particular, domain adaptation under posterior drift. We introduce the concept of relative signal strength (RSS), a pointwise measure that quantifies the transferability from noisy to clean posterior. Using RSS, we establish nearly matching upper and lower bounds on the excess risk. Our theoretical findings support the simple Noise Ignorant Empirical Risk Minimization (NI-ERM) principle, which minimizes empirical risk while ignoring label noise. Finally, we translate this theoretical insight into practice: by using NI-ERM to fit a linear classifier on top of a self-supervised feature extractor, we achieve state-of-the-art performance on the CIFAR-N data challenge.

Distributed reinforcement learning trains on data from stale, buggy, or mismatched actors, producing actions with high surprisal (negative log-probability) under the learner's policy. The core difficulty is not surprising data per se, but negative learning from surprising data. High-surprisal failures can dominate the update direction despite carrying little useful signal, while high-surprisal successes reveal opportunities the current policy would otherwise miss. The Delightful Policy Gradient (DG) separates these cases by gating each update with delight, the product of advantage and surprisal, suppressing rare failures and amplifying rare successes without behavior probabilities. Under contaminated sampling, the cosine similarity between the standard policy gradient and the true gradient collapses, while DG's grows as the policy improves. No sign-blind reweighting, including exact importance sampling, can reproduce this effect. On MNIST with simulated staleness, DG without off-policy correction outperforms importance-weighted PG with exact behavior probabilities. On a transformer sequence task with staleness, actor bugs, reward corruption, and rare discovery, DG achieves roughly 10{times} lower error. When all four frictions act simultaneously, its compute advantage is order-of-magnitude and grows with task complexity.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) is an effective approach to enhance the factual accuracy of large language models (LLMs) by retrieving information from external databases, which are typically composed of diverse sources, to supplement the limited internal knowledge of LLMs. However, the standard RAG often risks retrieving incorrect information, as it relies solely on relevance between a query and a document, overlooking the heterogeneous reliability of these sources. To address this issue, we propose Reliability-Aware RAG (RA-RAG), a new multi-source RAG framework that estimates the reliability of sources and leverages this information to prioritize highly reliable and relevant documents, ensuring more robust and accurate response generation. Specifically, RA-RAG first estimates source reliability by cross-checking information across multiple sources. It then retrieves documents from the top-kappa reliable and relevant sources and aggregates their information using weighted majority voting (WMV), where the selective retrieval ensures scalability while not compromising the performance. Comprehensive experiments show that RA-RAG consistently outperforms baselines in scenarios with heterogeneous source reliability while scaling efficiently as the number of sources increases. Furthermore, we demonstrate the ability of RA-RAG to estimate real-world sources' reliability, highlighting its practical applicability. Our code and data are available at \href{https://github.com/ml-postech/RA-RAG{RA-RAG}.}

Machine learning systems in fraud detection, credit scoring, and clinical risk assessment operate under delayed ground truth: outcome labels arrive days to months after the decision they evaluate. During this blind period, governance evidence degrades through mechanisms that neither drift detection methods nor governance frameworks adequately address. This paper formalizes an evidence sufficiency model with four dimensions (completeness, freshness, reliability, representativeness) and a decision-readiness gate that quantifies how label latency degrades evidence quality. The model maps three drift types to dimension-specific degradation trajectories. A complementary proxy indicator framework comprising seven measurement categories estimates sufficiency degradation without labels, with explicit coverage mapping and characterized blind spots per drift type. Evaluation on the IEEE-CIS Fraud Detection dataset (~590K transactions) with controlled drift injection shows that composite proxy monitoring detects covariate and mixed drift with 100% detection rate, while concept drift without feature change remains undetected -- consistent with the theoretical impossibility of unsupervised detection when P(X) is unchanged. Blind period simulation confirms monotone sufficiency degradation, with concept drift degrading fastest (S=0.242 at day 60 vs 0.418 for no-drift). The framework contributes a governance sufficiency monitoring instrument; its value lies in translating drift signals into auditable sufficiency assessments with characterized blind spots. Mapping sufficiency levels to governance actions requires deployment-specific calibration beyond this study's scope.

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) consist of many low cost and light sensors dispersed in an area to monitor the physical environment. Event detection in WSN area, especially detection of multi-events at the same time, is an important problem. This article is a new attempt for detection of two simultaneous events based on distributed data processing structure and Bayesian criteria. For accurate detection of two simultaneous events, we proposed new decision rules based on likelihood ratio test and also derived probability of detection error based on Bayesian criteria. In addition to multi-event detection, the proposed method is expanded to a fault-tolerant procedure if there are faults in decision making of sensors. Performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated for detection of events in different circumstances. Results show the effectiveness of the algorithm for fault-tolerant multi-event detection.

We study the problem of detecting the correlation between two Gaussian databases XinR^{ntimes d} and Y^{ntimes d}, each composed of n users with d features. This problem is relevant in the analysis of social media, computational biology, etc. We formulate this as a hypothesis testing problem: under the null hypothesis, these two databases are statistically independent. Under the alternative, however, there exists an unknown permutation sigma over the set of n users (or, row permutation), such that X is rho-correlated with Y^sigma, a permuted version of Y. We determine sharp thresholds at which optimal testing exhibits a phase transition, depending on the asymptotic regime of n and d. Specifically, we prove that if rho^2dto0, as dtoinfty, then weak detection (performing slightly better than random guessing) is statistically impossible, irrespectively of the value of n. This compliments the performance of a simple test that thresholds the sum all entries of X^TY. Furthermore, when d is fixed, we prove that strong detection (vanishing error probability) is impossible for any rho<rho^star, where rho^star is an explicit function of d, while weak detection is again impossible as long as rho^2dto0. These results close significant gaps in current recent related studies.