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Apr 14

Asynchronous Parallel Reinforcement Learning for Optimizing Propulsive Performance in Fin Ray Control

Fish fin rays constitute a sophisticated control system for ray-finned fish, facilitating versatile locomotion within complex fluid environments. Despite extensive research on the kinematics and hydrodynamics of fish locomotion, the intricate control strategies in fin-ray actuation remain largely unexplored. While deep reinforcement learning (DRL) has demonstrated potential in managing complex nonlinear dynamics; its trial-and-error nature limits its application to problems involving computationally demanding environmental interactions. This study introduces a cutting-edge off-policy DRL algorithm, interacting with a fluid-structure interaction (FSI) environment to acquire intricate fin-ray control strategies tailored for various propulsive performance objectives. To enhance training efficiency and enable scalable parallelism, an innovative asynchronous parallel training (APT) strategy is proposed, which fully decouples FSI environment interactions and policy/value network optimization. The results demonstrated the success of the proposed method in discovering optimal complex policies for fin-ray actuation control, resulting in a superior propulsive performance compared to the optimal sinusoidal actuation function identified through a parametric grid search. The merit and effectiveness of the APT approach are also showcased through comprehensive comparison with conventional DRL training strategies in numerical experiments of controlling nonlinear dynamics.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 20, 2024

User-Conditioned Neural Control Policies for Mobile Robotics

Recently, learning-based controllers have been shown to push mobile robotic systems to their limits and provide the robustness needed for many real-world applications. However, only classical optimization-based control frameworks offer the inherent flexibility to be dynamically adjusted during execution by, for example, setting target speeds or actuator limits. We present a framework to overcome this shortcoming of neural controllers by conditioning them on an auxiliary input. This advance is enabled by including a feature-wise linear modulation layer (FiLM). We use model-free reinforcement-learning to train quadrotor control policies for the task of navigating through a sequence of waypoints in minimum time. By conditioning the policy on the maximum available thrust or the viewing direction relative to the next waypoint, a user can regulate the aggressiveness of the quadrotor's flight during deployment. We demonstrate in simulation and in real-world experiments that a single control policy can achieve close to time-optimal flight performance across the entire performance envelope of the robot, reaching up to 60 km/h and 4.5g in acceleration. The ability to guide a learned controller during task execution has implications beyond agile quadrotor flight, as conditioning the control policy on human intent helps safely bringing learning based systems out of the well-defined laboratory environment into the wild.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 22, 2022

SparseDriveV2: Scoring is All You Need for End-to-End Autonomous Driving

End-to-end multi-modal planning has been widely adopted to model the uncertainty of driving behavior, typically by scoring candidate trajectories and selecting the optimal one. Existing approaches generally fall into two categories: scoring a large static trajectory vocabulary, or scoring a small set of dynamically generated proposals. While static vocabularies often suffer from coarse discretization of the action space, dynamic proposals provide finer-grained precision and have shown stronger empirical performance on existing benchmarks. However, it remains unclear whether dynamic generation is fundamentally necessary, or whether static vocabularies can already achieve comparable performance when they are sufficiently dense to cover the action space. In this work, we start with a systematic scaling study of Hydra-MDP, a representative scoring-based method, revealing that performance consistently improves as trajectory anchors become denser, without exhibiting saturation before computational constraints are reached. Motivated by this observation, we propose SparseDriveV2 to push the performance boundary of scoring-based planning through two complementary innovations: (1) a scalable vocabulary representation with a factorized structure that decomposes trajectories into geometric paths and velocity profiles, enabling combinatorial coverage of the action space, and (2) a scalable scoring strategy with coarse factorized scoring over paths and velocity profiles followed by fine-grained scoring on a small set of composed trajectories. By combining these two techniques, SparseDriveV2 achieves 92.0 PDMS and 90.1 EPDMS on NAVSIM, with 89.15 Driving Score and 70.00 Success Rate on Bench2Drive with a lightweight ResNet-34 as backbone. Code and model are released at https://github.com/swc-17/SparseDriveV2.

  • 7 authors
·
Mar 30

BeyondMimic: From Motion Tracking to Versatile Humanoid Control via Guided Diffusion

The human-like form of humanoid robots positions them uniquely to achieve the agility and versatility in motor skills that humans possess. Learning from human demonstrations offers a scalable approach to acquiring these capabilities. However, prior works either produce unnatural motions or rely on motion-specific tuning to achieve satisfactory naturalness. Furthermore, these methods are often motion- or goal-specific, lacking the versatility to compose diverse skills, especially when solving unseen tasks. We present BeyondMimic, a framework that scales to diverse motions and carries the versatility to compose them seamlessly in tackling unseen downstream tasks. At heart, a compact motion-tracking formulation enables mastering a wide range of radically agile behaviors, including aerial cartwheels, spin-kicks, flip-kicks, and sprinting, with a single setup and shared hyperparameters, all while achieving state-of-the-art human-like performance. Moving beyond the mere imitation of existing motions, we propose a unified latent diffusion model that empowers versatile goal specification, seamless task switching, and dynamic composition of these agile behaviors. Leveraging classifier guidance, a diffusion-specific technique for test-time optimization toward novel objectives, our model extends its capability to solve downstream tasks never encountered during training, including motion inpainting, joystick teleoperation, and obstacle avoidance, and transfers these skills zero-shot to real hardware. This work opens new frontiers for humanoid robots by pushing the limits of scalable human-like motor skill acquisition from human motion and advancing seamless motion synthesis that achieves generalization and versatility beyond training setups.

  • 7 authors
·
Aug 11, 2025

EVPropNet: Detecting Drones By Finding Propellers For Mid-Air Landing And Following

The rapid rise of accessibility of unmanned aerial vehicles or drones pose a threat to general security and confidentiality. Most of the commercially available or custom-built drones are multi-rotors and are comprised of multiple propellers. Since these propellers rotate at a high-speed, they are generally the fastest moving parts of an image and cannot be directly "seen" by a classical camera without severe motion blur. We utilize a class of sensors that are particularly suitable for such scenarios called event cameras, which have a high temporal resolution, low-latency, and high dynamic range. In this paper, we model the geometry of a propeller and use it to generate simulated events which are used to train a deep neural network called EVPropNet to detect propellers from the data of an event camera. EVPropNet directly transfers to the real world without any fine-tuning or retraining. We present two applications of our network: (a) tracking and following an unmarked drone and (b) landing on a near-hover drone. We successfully evaluate and demonstrate the proposed approach in many real-world experiments with different propeller shapes and sizes. Our network can detect propellers at a rate of 85.1% even when 60% of the propeller is occluded and can run at upto 35Hz on a 2W power budget. To our knowledge, this is the first deep learning-based solution for detecting propellers (to detect drones). Finally, our applications also show an impressive success rate of 92% and 90% for the tracking and landing tasks respectively.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 28, 2021

PropensityBench: Evaluating Latent Safety Risks in Large Language Models via an Agentic Approach

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have sparked concerns over their potential to acquire and misuse dangerous or high-risk capabilities, posing frontier risks. Current safety evaluations primarily test for what a model can do - its capabilities - without assessing what it would do if endowed with high-risk capabilities. This leaves a critical blind spot: models may strategically conceal capabilities or rapidly acquire them, while harboring latent inclinations toward misuse. We argue that propensity - the likelihood of a model to pursue harmful actions if empowered - is a critical, yet underexplored, axis of safety evaluation. We present PropensityBench, a novel benchmark framework that assesses the proclivity of models to engage in risky behaviors when equipped with simulated dangerous capabilities using proxy tools. Our framework includes 5,874 scenarios with 6,648 tools spanning four high-risk domains: cybersecurity, self-proliferation, biosecurity, and chemical security. We simulate access to powerful capabilities via a controlled agentic environment and evaluate the models' choices under varying operational pressures that reflect real-world constraints or incentives models may encounter, such as resource scarcity or gaining more autonomy. Across open-source and proprietary frontier models, we uncover 9 alarming signs of propensity: models frequently choose high-risk tools when under pressure, despite lacking the capability to execute such actions unaided. These findings call for a shift from static capability audits toward dynamic propensity assessments as a prerequisite for deploying frontier AI systems safely. Our code is available at https://github.com/scaleapi/propensity-evaluation.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 24, 2025

SingularTrajectory: Universal Trajectory Predictor Using Diffusion Model

There are five types of trajectory prediction tasks: deterministic, stochastic, domain adaptation, momentary observation, and few-shot. These associated tasks are defined by various factors, such as the length of input paths, data split and pre-processing methods. Interestingly, even though they commonly take sequential coordinates of observations as input and infer future paths in the same coordinates as output, designing specialized architectures for each task is still necessary. For the other task, generality issues can lead to sub-optimal performances. In this paper, we propose SingularTrajectory, a diffusion-based universal trajectory prediction framework to reduce the performance gap across the five tasks. The core of SingularTrajectory is to unify a variety of human dynamics representations on the associated tasks. To do this, we first build a Singular space to project all types of motion patterns from each task into one embedding space. We next propose an adaptive anchor working in the Singular space. Unlike traditional fixed anchor methods that sometimes yield unacceptable paths, our adaptive anchor enables correct anchors, which are put into a wrong location, based on a traversability map. Finally, we adopt a diffusion-based predictor to further enhance the prototype paths using a cascaded denoising process. Our unified framework ensures the generality across various benchmark settings such as input modality, and trajectory lengths. Extensive experiments on five public benchmarks demonstrate that SingularTrajectory substantially outperforms existing models, highlighting its effectiveness in estimating general dynamics of human movements. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/SingularTrajectory .

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 27, 2024 1

Safe & Accurate at Speed with Tendons: A Robot Arm for Exploring Dynamic Motion

Operating robots precisely and at high speeds has been a long-standing goal of robotics research. Balancing these competing demands is key to enabling the seamless collaboration of robots and humans and increasing task performance. However, traditional motor-driven systems often fall short in this balancing act. Due to their rigid and often heavy design exacerbated by positioning the motors into the joints, faster motions of such robots transfer high forces at impact. To enable precise and safe dynamic motions, we introduce a four degree-of-freedom~(DoF) tendon-driven robot arm. Tendons allow placing the actuation at the base to reduce the robot's inertia, which we show significantly reduces peak collision forces compared to conventional robots with motors placed near the joints. Pairing our robot with pneumatic muscles allows generating high forces and highly accelerated motions, while benefiting from impact resilience through passive compliance. Since tendons are subject to additional friction and hence prone to wear and tear, we validate the reliability of our robotic arm on various experiments, including long-term dynamic motions. We also demonstrate its ease of control by quantifying the nonlinearities of the system and the performance on a challenging dynamic table tennis task learned from scratch using reinforcement learning. We open-source the entire hardware design, which can be largely 3D printed, the control software, and a proprioceptive dataset of 25 days of diverse robot motions at webdav.tuebingen.mpg.de/pamy2.

  • 12 authors
·
Jul 5, 2023

VLASH: Real-Time VLAs via Future-State-Aware Asynchronous Inference

Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) are becoming increasingly capable across diverse robotic tasks. However, their real-world deployment remains slow and inefficient: demonstration videos are often sped up by 5-10x to appear smooth, with noticeable action stalls and delayed reactions to environmental changes. Asynchronous inference offers a promising solution to achieve continuous and low-latency control by enabling robots to execute actions and perform inference simultaneously. However, because the robot and environment continue to evolve during inference, a temporal misalignment arises between the prediction and execution intervals. This leads to significant action instability, while existing methods either degrade accuracy or introduce runtime overhead to mitigate it. We propose VLASH, a general asynchronous inference framework for VLAs that delivers smooth, accurate, and fast reaction control without additional overhead or architectural changes. VLASH estimates the future execution-time state by rolling the robot state forward with the previously generated action chunk, thereby bridging the gap between prediction and execution. Experiments show that VLASH achieves up to 2.03x speedup and reduces reaction latency by up to 17.4x compared to synchronous inference while fully preserving the original accuracy. Moreover, it empowers VLAs to handle fast-reaction, high-precision tasks such as playing ping-pong and playing whack-a-mole, where traditional synchronous inference fails. Code is available at https://github.com/mit-han-lab/vlash

mit-han-lab MIT HAN Lab
·
Nov 30, 2025 1

Ultrafast Sampling-based Kinodynamic Planning via Differential Flatness

Motion planning under dynamics constraints, i.e., kinodynamic planning, enables safe robot operation by generating dynamically feasible trajectories that the robot can accurately track. For high-\dof robots such as manipulators, sampling-based motion planners are commonly used, especially for complex tasks in cluttered environments. However, enforcing constraints on robot dynamics in such planners requires solving either challenging two-point boundary value problems (BVPs) or propagating robot dynamics over time, both of which are computational bottlenecks that drastically increase planning times. Meanwhile, recent efforts have shown that sampling-based motion planners can generate plans in microseconds using parallelization, but are limited to geometric paths. This paper develops AkinoPDF, a fast parallelized sampling-based kinodynamic motion planning technique for a broad class of differentially flat robot systems, including manipulators, ground and aerial vehicles, and more. Differential flatness allows us to transform the motion planning problem from the original state space to a flat output space, where an analytical time-parameterized solution of the BVP and dynamics integration can be obtained. A trajectory in the flat output space is then converted back to a closed-form dynamically feasible trajectory in the original state space, enabling fast validation via ``single instruction, multiple data" parallelism. Our method is fast, exact, and compatible with any sampling-based motion planner. We extensively verify the effectiveness of our approach in both simulated benchmarks and real experiments with cluttered and dynamic environments, requiring mere microseconds to milliseconds of planning time.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 16

FASTER: Rethinking Real-Time Flow VLAs

Real-time execution is crucial for deploying Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models in the physical world. Existing asynchronous inference methods primarily optimize trajectory smoothness, but neglect the critical latency in reacting to environmental changes. By rethinking the notion of reaction in action chunking policies, this paper presents a systematic analysis of the factors governing reaction time. We show that reaction time follows a uniform distribution determined jointly by the Time to First Action (TTFA) and the execution horizon. Moreover, we reveal that the standard practice of applying a constant schedule in flow-based VLAs can be inefficient and forces the system to complete all sampling steps before any movement can start, forming the bottleneck in reaction latency. To overcome this issue, we propose Fast Action Sampling for ImmediaTE Reaction (FASTER). By introducing a Horizon-Aware Schedule, FASTER adaptively prioritizes near-term actions during flow sampling, compressing the denoising of the immediate reaction by tenfold (e.g., in π_{0.5} and X-VLA) into a single step, while preserving the quality of long-horizon trajectory. Coupled with a streaming client-server pipeline, FASTER substantially reduces the effective reaction latency on real robots, especially when deployed on consumer-grade GPUs. Real-world experiments, including a highly dynamic table tennis task, prove that FASTER unlocks unprecedented real-time responsiveness for generalist policies, enabling rapid generation of accurate and smooth trajectories.

Follow-Your-Click: Open-domain Regional Image Animation via Short Prompts

Despite recent advances in image-to-video generation, better controllability and local animation are less explored. Most existing image-to-video methods are not locally aware and tend to move the entire scene. However, human artists may need to control the movement of different objects or regions. Additionally, current I2V methods require users not only to describe the target motion but also to provide redundant detailed descriptions of frame contents. These two issues hinder the practical utilization of current I2V tools. In this paper, we propose a practical framework, named Follow-Your-Click, to achieve image animation with a simple user click (for specifying what to move) and a short motion prompt (for specifying how to move). Technically, we propose the first-frame masking strategy, which significantly improves the video generation quality, and a motion-augmented module equipped with a short motion prompt dataset to improve the short prompt following abilities of our model. To further control the motion speed, we propose flow-based motion magnitude control to control the speed of target movement more precisely. Our framework has simpler yet precise user control and better generation performance than previous methods. Extensive experiments compared with 7 baselines, including both commercial tools and research methods on 8 metrics, suggest the superiority of our approach. Project Page: https://follow-your-click.github.io/

  • 11 authors
·
Mar 13, 2024 5

COPlanner: Plan to Roll Out Conservatively but to Explore Optimistically for Model-Based RL

Dyna-style model-based reinforcement learning contains two phases: model rollouts to generate sample for policy learning and real environment exploration using current policy for dynamics model learning. However, due to the complex real-world environment, it is inevitable to learn an imperfect dynamics model with model prediction error, which can further mislead policy learning and result in sub-optimal solutions. In this paper, we propose COPlanner, a planning-driven framework for model-based methods to address the inaccurately learned dynamics model problem with conservative model rollouts and optimistic environment exploration. COPlanner leverages an uncertainty-aware policy-guided model predictive control (UP-MPC) component to plan for multi-step uncertainty estimation. This estimated uncertainty then serves as a penalty during model rollouts and as a bonus during real environment exploration respectively, to choose actions. Consequently, COPlanner can avoid model uncertain regions through conservative model rollouts, thereby alleviating the influence of model error. Simultaneously, it explores high-reward model uncertain regions to reduce model error actively through optimistic real environment exploration. COPlanner is a plug-and-play framework that can be applied to any dyna-style model-based methods. Experimental results on a series of proprioceptive and visual continuous control tasks demonstrate that both sample efficiency and asymptotic performance of strong model-based methods are significantly improved combined with COPlanner.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 11, 2023

Flight Controller Synthesis Via Deep Reinforcement Learning

Traditional control methods are inadequate in many deployment settings involving control of Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). In such settings, CPS controllers must operate and respond to unpredictable interactions, conditions, or failure modes. Dealing with such unpredictability requires the use of executive and cognitive control functions that allow for planning and reasoning. Motivated by the sport of drone racing, this dissertation addresses these concerns for state-of-the-art flight control by investigating the use of deep neural networks to bring essential elements of higher-level cognition for constructing low level flight controllers. This thesis reports on the development and release of an open source, full solution stack for building neuro-flight controllers. This stack consists of the methodology for constructing a multicopter digital twin for synthesize the flight controller unique to a specific aircraft, a tuning framework for implementing training environments (GymFC), and a firmware for the world's first neural network supported flight controller (Neuroflight). GymFC's novel approach fuses together the digital twinning paradigm for flight control training to provide seamless transfer to hardware. Additionally, this thesis examines alternative reward system functions as well as changes to the software environment to bridge the gap between the simulation and real world deployment environments. Work summarized in this thesis demonstrates that reinforcement learning is able to be leveraged for training neural network controllers capable, not only of maintaining stable flight, but also precision aerobatic maneuvers in real world settings. As such, this work provides a foundation for developing the next generation of flight control systems.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 13, 2019

What about gravity in video generation? Post-Training Newton's Laws with Verifiable Rewards

Recent video diffusion models can synthesize visually compelling clips, yet often violate basic physical laws-objects float, accelerations drift, and collisions behave inconsistently-revealing a persistent gap between visual realism and physical realism. We propose NewtonRewards, the first physics-grounded post-training framework for video generation based on verifiable rewards. Instead of relying on human or VLM feedback, NewtonRewards extracts measurable proxies from generated videos using frozen utility models: optical flow serves as a proxy for velocity, while high-level appearance features serve as a proxy for mass. These proxies enable explicit enforcement of Newtonian structure through two complementary rewards: a Newtonian kinematic constraint enforcing constant-acceleration dynamics, and a mass conservation reward preventing trivial, degenerate solutions. We evaluate NewtonRewards on five Newtonian Motion Primitives (free fall, horizontal/parabolic throw, and ramp sliding down/up) using our newly constructed large-scale benchmark, NewtonBench-60K. Across all primitives in visual and physics metrics, NewtonRewards consistently improves physical plausibility, motion smoothness, and temporal coherence over prior post-training methods. It further maintains strong performance under out-of-distribution shifts in height, speed, and friction. Our results show that physics-grounded verifiable rewards offer a scalable path toward physics-aware video generation.

ProPhy: Progressive Physical Alignment for Dynamic World Simulation

Recent advances in video generation have shown remarkable potential for constructing world simulators. However, current models still struggle to produce physically consistent results, particularly when handling large-scale or complex dynamics. This limitation arises primarily because existing approaches respond isotropically to physical prompts and neglect the fine-grained alignment between generated content and localized physical cues. To address these challenges, we propose ProPhy, a Progressive Physical Alignment Framework that enables explicit physics-aware conditioning and anisotropic generation. ProPhy employs a two-stage Mixture-of-Physics-Experts (MoPE) mechanism for discriminative physical prior extraction, where Semantic Experts infer semantic-level physical principles from textual descriptions, and Refinement Experts capture token-level physical dynamics. This mechanism allows the model to learn fine-grained, physics-aware video representations that better reflect underlying physical laws. Furthermore, we introduce a physical alignment strategy that transfers the physical reasoning capabilities of vision-language models (VLMs) into the Refinement Experts, facilitating a more accurate representation of dynamic physical phenomena. Extensive experiments on physics-aware video generation benchmarks demonstrate that ProPhy produces more realistic, dynamic, and physically coherent results than existing state-of-the-art methods.

  • 10 authors
·
Dec 5, 2025 2

Agility Meets Stability: Versatile Humanoid Control with Heterogeneous Data

Humanoid robots are envisioned to perform a wide range of tasks in human-centered environments, requiring controllers that combine agility with robust balance. Recent advances in locomotion and whole-body tracking have enabled impressive progress in either agile dynamic skills or stability-critical behaviors, but existing methods remain specialized, focusing on one capability while compromising the other. In this work, we introduce AMS (Agility Meets Stability), the first framework that unifies both dynamic motion tracking and extreme balance maintenance in a single policy. Our key insight is to leverage heterogeneous data sources: human motion capture datasets that provide rich, agile behaviors, and physically constrained synthetic balance motions that capture stability configurations. To reconcile the divergent optimization goals of agility and stability, we design a hybrid reward scheme that applies general tracking objectives across all data while injecting balance-specific priors only into synthetic motions. Further, an adaptive learning strategy with performance-driven sampling and motion-specific reward shaping enables efficient training across diverse motion distributions. We validate AMS extensively in simulation and on a real Unitree G1 humanoid. Experiments demonstrate that a single policy can execute agile skills such as dancing and running, while also performing zero-shot extreme balance motions like Ip Man's Squat, highlighting AMS as a versatile control paradigm for future humanoid applications.

  • 11 authors
·
Nov 21, 2025

MOVE: A Simple Motion-Based Data Collection Paradigm for Spatial Generalization in Robotic Manipulation

Imitation learning method has shown immense promise for robotic manipulation, yet its practical deployment is fundamentally constrained by the data scarcity. Despite prior work on collecting large-scale datasets, there still remains a significant gap to robust spatial generalization. We identify a key limitation: individual trajectories, regardless of their length, are typically collected from a single, static spatial configuration of the environment. This includes fixed object and target spatial positions as well as unchanging camera viewpoints, which significantly restricts the diversity of spatial information available for learning. To address this critical bottleneck in data efficiency, we propose MOtion-Based Variability Enhancement (MOVE), a simple yet effective data collection paradigm that enables the acquisition of richer spatial information from dynamic demonstrations. Our core contribution is an augmentation strategy that injects motion into any movable objects within the environment for each demonstration. This process implicitly generates a dense and diverse set of spatial configurations within a single trajectory. We conduct extensive experiments in both simulation and real-world environments to validate our approach. For example, in simulation tasks requiring strong spatial generalization, MOVE achieves an average success rate of 39.1\%, a 76.1\% relative improvement over the static data collection paradigm (22.2\%), and yields up to 2--5times gains in data efficiency on certain tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/lucywang720/MOVE.

  • 10 authors
·
Dec 4, 2025

Forecasting Thermoacoustic Instabilities in Liquid Propellant Rocket Engines Using Multimodal Bayesian Deep Learning

The 100 MW cryogenic liquid oxygen/hydrogen multi-injector combustor BKD operated by the DLR Institute of Space Propulsion is a research platform that allows the study of thermoacoustic instabilities under realistic conditions, representative of small upper stage rocket engines. We use data from BKD experimental campaigns in which the static chamber pressure and fuel-oxidizer ratio are varied such that the first tangential mode of the combustor is excited under some conditions. We train an autoregressive Bayesian neural network model to forecast the amplitude of the dynamic pressure time series, inputting multiple sensor measurements (injector pressure/ temperature measurements, static chamber pressure, high-frequency dynamic pressure measurements, high-frequency OH* chemiluminescence measurements) and future flow rate control signals. The Bayesian nature of our algorithms allows us to work with a dataset whose size is restricted by the expense of each experimental run, without making overconfident extrapolations. We find that the networks are able to accurately forecast the evolution of the pressure amplitude and anticipate instability events on unseen experimental runs 500 milliseconds in advance. We compare the predictive accuracy of multiple models using different combinations of sensor inputs. We find that the high-frequency dynamic pressure signal is particularly informative. We also use the technique of integrated gradients to interpret the influence of different sensor inputs on the model prediction. The negative log-likelihood of data points in the test dataset indicates that predictive uncertainties are well-characterized by our Bayesian model and simulating a sensor failure event results as expected in a dramatic increase in the epistemic component of the uncertainty.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 1, 2021

Deep Stochastic Kinematic Models for Probabilistic Motion Forecasting in Traffic

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 3, 2024