Daily Papers

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has propelled Large Language Models in complex reasoning, yet its scalability is often hindered by a training bottleneck where performance plateaus as policy entropy collapses, signaling a loss of exploration. Previous methods typically address this by maintaining high policy entropy, yet the precise mechanisms that govern meaningful exploration have remained underexplored. Our analysis suggests that an unselective focus on entropy risks amplifying irrelevant tokens and destabilizing training. This paper investigates the exploration dynamics within RLVR and identifies a key issue: the gradual elimination of valuable low-probability exploratory tokens, which we term \textit{reasoning sparks}. We find that while abundant in pre-trained models, these sparks are systematically extinguished during RLVR due to over-penalization, leading to a degeneracy in exploration. To address this, we introduce Low-probability Regularization (Lp-Reg). Its core mechanism regularizes the policy towards a heuristic proxy distribution. This proxy is constructed by filtering out presumed noise tokens and re-normalizing the distribution over the remaining candidates. The result is a less-noisy proxy where the probability of reasoning sparks is amplified, which then serves as a soft regularization target to shield these valuable tokens from elimination via KL divergence. Experiments show that Lp-Reg enables stable on-policy training for around 1,000 steps, a regime where baseline entropy-control methods collapse. This sustained exploration leads to state-of-the-art performance, achieving a 60.17% average accuracy on five math benchmarks, an improvement of 2.66% over prior methods. Code is available at https://github.com/CarlanLark/Lp-Reg.

We revisit Wald's celebrated Sequential Probability Ratio Test for sequential tests of two simple hypotheses, under privacy constraints. We propose DP-SPRT, a wrapper that can be calibrated to achieve desired error probabilities and privacy constraints, addressing a significant gap in previous work. DP-SPRT relies on a private mechanism that processes a sequence of queries and stops after privately determining when the query results fall outside a predefined interval. This OutsideInterval mechanism improves upon naive composition of existing techniques like AboveThreshold, potentially benefiting other sequential algorithms. We prove generic upper bounds on the error and sample complexity of DP-SPRT that can accommodate various noise distributions based on the practitioner's privacy needs. We exemplify them in two settings: Laplace noise (pure Differential Privacy) and Gaussian noise (R\'enyi differential privacy). In the former setting, by providing a lower bound on the sample complexity of any epsilon-DP test with prescribed type I and type II errors, we show that DP-SPRT is near optimal when both errors are small and the two hypotheses are close. Moreover, we conduct an experimental study revealing its good practical performance.

Test-time scaling seeks to improve the reasoning performance of large language models (LLMs) by adding computational resources. A prevalent approach within the field is sampling-based test-time scaling methods, which enhance reasoning by generating multiple reasoning paths for a given input during inference. However, despite its practical success, the theoretical foundations remain underexplored. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical framework for analyzing sampling-based test-time scaling methods, grounded in the perspective of confidence estimation. Based on the framework, we analyze two dominant paradigms: self-consistency and perplexity, and reveal key limitations: self-consistency suffers from high estimation error while perplexity exhibits substantial modeling error and possible degradation of the estimation error convergence. To address these limitations, we introduce RPC, a hybrid method that leverages our theoretical insights through two key components: Perplexity Consistency and Reasoning Pruning. Perplexity Consistency combines the strengths of self-consistency and perplexity, boosting the convergence rate of estimation error from linear to exponential while preserving model error. Reasoning Pruning prevents degradation by eliminating low-probability reasoning paths. Both theoretical analysis and empirical results across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that RPC has a strong potential for reducing reasoning error. Notably, RPC achieves reasoning performance comparable to self-consistency while not only enhancing confidence reliability but also reducing sampling costs by 50%. The code and resources are available at https://wnjxyk.github.io/RPC.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capabilities. However, single-shot inference often yields unreliable results for complex reasoning tasks, leading researchers to explore multiple reasoning paths through methods such as perplexity and self-consistency. In this paper, we present the first theoretical error decomposition analysis of these techniques, breaking down their error into estimation error and model error. Our analysis reveals a fundamental trade-off: perplexity methods suffer from substantial model error due to the absence of a proper consistency function, while self-consistency exhibits high estimation error due to a slow error convergence rate. To overcome these limitations, we propose Reasoning-Pruning Perplexity Consistency (RPC). This approach combines Perplexity Consistency, which seamlessly integrates LLM perplexity with self-consistency, and Reasoning Pruning, which eliminates low-probability reasoning paths to effectively prevent the degeneration of estimation error reduction. Theoretical analysis demonstrates that RPC not only accelerates the convergence rate of estimation error to an exponential level but also holds strong potential for further reducing model error. Extensive empirical evaluations on seven benchmark datasets confirm that RPC can significantly improve reasoning performance, sample efficiency, and confidence reliability.

Token-level reweighting is a simple yet effective mechanism for controlling supervised fine-tuning, but common indicators are largely one-dimensional: the ground-truth probability reflects downstream alignment, while token entropy reflects intrinsic uncertainty induced by the pre-training prior. Ignoring entropy can misidentify noisy or easily replaceable tokens as learning-critical, while ignoring probability fails to reflect target-specific alignment. RankTuner introduces a probability--entropy calibration signal, the Relative Rank Indicator, which compares the rank of the ground-truth token with its expected rank under the prediction distribution. The inverse indicator is used as a token-wise Relative Scale to reweight the fine-tuning objective, focusing updates on truly under-learned tokens without over-penalizing intrinsically uncertain positions. Experiments on multiple backbones show consistent improvements on mathematical reasoning benchmarks, transfer gains on out-of-distribution reasoning, and pre code generation performance over probability-only or entropy-only reweighting baselines.

Fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) on reasoning benchmarks via reinforcement learning requires a specific reward function, often binary, for each benchmark. This comes with two potential limitations: the need to design the reward, and the potentially sparse nature of binary rewards. Here, we systematically investigate rewards derived from the probability or log-probability of emitting the reference answer (or any other prompt continuation present in the data), which have the advantage of not relying on specific verifiers and being available at scale. Several recent works have advocated for the use of similar rewards (e.g., VeriFree, JEPO, RLPR, NOVER). We systematically compare variants of likelihood-based rewards with standard baselines, testing performance both on standard mathematical reasoning benchmarks, and on long-form answers where no external verifier is available. We find that using the log-probability of the reference answer as the reward for chain-of-thought (CoT) learning is the only option that performs well in all setups. This reward is also consistent with the next-token log-likelihood loss used during pretraining. In verifiable settings, log-probability rewards bring comparable or better success rates than reinforcing with standard binary rewards, and yield much better perplexity. In non-verifiable settings, they perform on par with SFT. On the other hand, methods based on probability, such as VeriFree, flatline on non-verifiable settings due to vanishing probabilities of getting the correct answer. Overall, this establishes log-probability rewards as a viable method for CoT fine-tuning, bridging the short, verifiable and long, non-verifiable answer settings.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has become a cornerstone for fine-tuning Large Language Models (LLMs), with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) serving as the de facto standard algorithm. Despite its ubiquity, we argue that the core ratio clipping mechanism in PPO is structurally ill-suited for the large vocabularies inherent to LLMs. PPO constrains policy updates based on the probability ratio of sampled tokens, which serves as a noisy single-sample Monte Carlo estimate of the true policy divergence. This creates a sub-optimal learning dynamic: updates to low-probability tokens are aggressively over-penalized, while potentially catastrophic shifts in high-probability tokens are under-constrained, leading to training inefficiency and instability. To address this, we propose Divergence Proximal Policy Optimization (DPPO), which substitutes heuristic clipping with a more principled constraint based on a direct estimate of policy divergence (e.g., Total Variation or KL). To avoid huge memory footprint, we introduce the efficient Binary and Top-K approximations to capture the essential divergence with negligible overhead. Extensive empirical evaluations demonstrate that DPPO achieves superior training stability and efficiency compared to existing methods, offering a more robust foundation for RL-based LLM fine-tuning.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) demonstrates promising potential in advancing the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. However, its success remains largely confined to mathematical and code domains. This primary limitation stems from the heavy reliance on domain-specific verifiers, which results in prohibitive complexity and limited scalability. To address the challenge, our key observation is that LLM's intrinsic probability of generating a correct free-form answer directly indicates its own evaluation of the reasoning reward (i.e., how well the reasoning process leads to the correct answer). Building on this insight, we propose RLPR, a simple verifier-free framework that extrapolates RLVR to broader general domains. RLPR uses the LLM's own token probability scores for reference answers as the reward signal and maximizes the expected reward during training. We find that addressing the high variance of this noisy probability reward is crucial to make it work, and propose prob-to-reward and stabilizing methods to ensure a precise and stable reward from LLM intrinsic probabilities. Comprehensive experiments in four general-domain benchmarks and three mathematical benchmarks show that RLPR consistently improves reasoning capabilities in both areas for Gemma, Llama, and Qwen based models. Notably, RLPR outperforms concurrent VeriFree by 7.6 points on TheoremQA and 7.5 points on Minerva, and even surpasses strong verifier-model-dependent approaches General-Reasoner by 1.6 average points across seven benchmarks.

The ongoing debate on whether reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) expands or shrinks the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) remains unresolved. Some studies contend that RLVR mainly improves sampling efficiency but at the expense of diversity and exploratory capacity, resulting in capability boundary shrinkage. In contrast, others demonstrate that prolonged training can lead to the emergence of novel reasoning strategies, suggesting capability boundary expansion. To reconcile these contradictory findings, we theoretically and empirically show that both perspectives are partially valid-each aligning with a separate phase in an inherent two-stage probability mass dynamic: (1) Exploitation stage: initially, the model primarily samples explored high-reward and low-reward tokens, while rarely selecting the potentially optimal token. Positive advantage estimates increase the probability of high-reward tokens and decrease those of low-reward tokens, yet the optimal token's probability remains largely unchanged during this stage. (2) Exploration stage: as training advances, the growth rate of previously acquired high-reward tokens slows as their probabilities approach saturation. When a potentially optimal token-now receiving positive advantage estimates-is occasionally sampled, its probability increases, while those of the originally high-reward tokens decrease. This dynamic suggests that over-exploitation during the exploitation stage may lead to capability boundary shrinkage, whereas prolonged training into the exploration stage can promote an expansion of the reasoning capability boundary. Building upon our insights, we revisit the potential of only using relative negative gradients for prolonging training, providing a theoretical and empirical foundation for the development of more advanced reasoning capabilities.

We consider reinforcement learning in an environment modeled by an episodic, finite, stage-dependent Markov decision process of horizon H with S states, and A actions. The performance of an agent is measured by the regret after interacting with the environment for T episodes. We propose an optimistic posterior sampling algorithm for reinforcement learning (OPSRL), a simple variant of posterior sampling that only needs a number of posterior samples logarithmic in H, S, A, and T per state-action pair. For OPSRL we guarantee a high-probability regret bound of order at most mathcal{O}(H^3SAT) ignoring polylog(HSAT) terms. The key novel technical ingredient is a new sharp anti-concentration inequality for linear forms which may be of independent interest. Specifically, we extend the normal approximation-based lower bound for Beta distributions by Alfers and Dinges [1984] to Dirichlet distributions. Our bound matches the lower bound of order Ω(H^3SAT), thereby answering the open problems raised by Agrawal and Jia [2017b] for the episodic setting.

Large language models (LLMs) often contain misleading content, emphasizing the need to align them with human values to ensure secur AI systems. Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) has been employed to achieve this alignment by combining a reward model, typically based on Bradley-Terry paired comparison, with an RL algorithm such as Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) to optimize LLM responses. However, RLHF exhibits complexity, instability, and sensitivity to hyperparameters. In this paper, we propose Preference Ranking Optimization (PRO) as an alternative to PPO for directly aligning LLMs with the Bradley-Terry comparison. PRO extends the pairwise Bradley-Terry comparison to accommodate preference rankings of any length. By iteratively contrasting the likelihood of generating responses, PRO instructs the LLM to prioritize the best response while progressively ranking the remaining responses. In this manner, PRO effectively transforms human alignment into aligning the probability ranking of n responses generated by LLM with the preference ranking of humans towards these responses. Experiments have shown that PRO outperforms existing alignment algorithms, achieving comparable results to ChatGPT and human responses through automatic-based, reward-based, GPT-4, and human evaluations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that longer, more diverse, and higher-quality preference ranking sequences can consistently enhance the performance of human alignment.

Floorplans provide a compact representation of the building's structure, revealing not only layout information but also detailed semantics such as the locations of windows and doors. However, contemporary floorplan localization techniques mostly focus on matching depth-based structural cues, ignoring the rich semantics communicated within floorplans. In this work, we introduce a semantic-aware localization framework that jointly estimates depth and semantic rays, consolidating over both for predicting a structural-semantic probability volume. Our probability volume is constructed in a coarse-to-fine manner: We first sample a small set of rays to obtain an initial low-resolution probability volume. We then refine these probabilities by performing a denser sampling only in high-probability regions and process the refined values for predicting a 2D location and orientation angle. We conduct an evaluation on two standard floorplan localization benchmarks. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving significant improvements in recall metrics compared to prior works. Moreover, we show that our framework can easily incorporate additional metadata such as room labels, enabling additional gains in both accuracy and efficiency.

This paper is an extended and reworked version of a short course given by the author at ''Uzbekistan-Ukrainian readings in stochastic processes'', Tashkent-Kyiv, 2022, and was prepared for a special issue of ''Theory of stochastic processes'', devoted to publishing lecture notes from the aforementioned workshop. The survey is devoted to operator splitting methods in the abstract formulation and their applications in probability. While the survey is focused on multiplicative methods, the BCH formula is used to discuss exponential splitting methods and a short informal introduction to additive splitting is presented. We introduce frameworks and available deterministic and probabilistic results and concentrate on constructing a wide picture of the field of operator splitting methods, providing a rigorous description in the setting of abstract Cauchy problems and an informal discussion for further and parallel advances. Some limitations and common difficulties are listed, as well as examples of works that provide solutions or hints. No new results are given. The bibliography contains illustrative deterministic examples and a selection of probability-related works.

It is shown that in the complex trajectory representation of quantum mechanics, the Born's Psi^{\star}Ψprobability density can be obtained from the imaginary part of the velocity field of particles on the real axis. Extending this probability axiom to the complex plane, we first attempt to find a probability density by solving an appropriate conservation equation. The characteristic curves of this conservation equation are found to be the same as the complex paths of particles in the new representation. The boundary condition in this case is that the extended probability density should agree with the quantum probability rule along the real line. For the simple, time-independent, one-dimensional problems worked out here, we find that a conserved probability density can be derived from the velocity field of particles, except in regions where the trajectories were previously suspected to be nonviable. An alternative method to find this probability density in terms of a trajectory integral, which is easier to implement on a computer and useful for single particle solutions, is also presented. Most importantly, we show, by using the complex extension of Schrodinger equation, that the desired conservation equation can be derived from this definition of probability density.

We consider adversarial multi-armed bandit problems where the learner is allowed to observe losses of a number of arms beside the arm that it actually chose. We study the case where all non-chosen arms reveal their loss with a fixed but unknown probability r, independently of each other and the action of the learner. We propose two algorithms that work for different ranges of r. We show that after T rounds in a bandit problem with N arms, the expected regret of our first algorithm is O((T /r) log N ) whenever rge(log T)/(2N), while our second algorithm achieves a regret of O((T/r) log (N+T)) for smaller values of r. We also give a quick estimation procedure that decides the range of~r. All our bounds are within logarithmic factors of the best achievable performance of any algorithm that is even allowed to know~r.

Modeling networks as different graph types and researching on route finding strategies, to avoid congestion in dense subnetworks via graph-theoretic approaches, contributes to overall blocking probability reduction in networks. Our main focus is to study methods for modeling congested subnetworks and graph density measures, in order to identify routes that avoid dense subgraphs for global congestion avoidance, along with covering related algorithmic issues.

Retrieval-enhanced methods have become a primary approach in fact verification (FV); it requires reasoning over multiple retrieved pieces of evidence to verify the integrity of a claim. To retrieve evidence, existing work often employs off-the-shelf retrieval models whose design is based on the probability ranking principle. We argue that, rather than relevance, for FV we need to focus on the utility that a claim verifier derives from the retrieved evidence. We introduce the feedback-based evidence retriever(FER) that optimizes the evidence retrieval process by incorporating feedback from the claim verifier. As a feedback signal we use the divergence in utility between how effectively the verifier utilizes the retrieved evidence and the ground-truth evidence to produce the final claim label. Empirical studies demonstrate the superiority of FER over prevailing baselines.

Diffusion Large Language Models (dLLMs) introduce a new paradigm for language generation, which in turn presents new challenges for aligning them with human preferences. In this work, we aim to improve the policy optimization for dLLMs by reducing the cost of the trajectory probability calculation, thereby enabling scaled-up offline policy training. We prove that: (i) under reference policy regularization, the probability ratio of the newly unmasked tokens is an unbiased estimate of that of intermediate diffusion states, and (ii) the probability of the full trajectory can be effectively estimated with a single forward pass of a re-masked final state. By integrating these two trajectory reduction strategies into a policy optimization objective, we propose Trajectory Reduction Policy Optimization (dTRPO). We evaluate dTRPO on 7B dLLMs across instruction-following and reasoning benchmarks. Results show that it substantially improves the core performance of state-of-the-art dLLMs, achieving gains of up to 9.6% on STEM tasks, up to 4.3% on coding tasks, and up to 3.0% on instruction-following tasks. Moreover, dTRPO exhibits strong training efficiency due to its offline, single-forward nature, and achieves improved generation efficiency through high-quality outputs.

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data drift is critical in machine learning models. Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is a machine learning model developed by Jeff Hawkins, inspired by how the human brain processes information. It is a biologically inspired model of memory that is similar in structure to the neocortex, and whose performance is claimed to be comparable to state of the art models in detecting anomalies in time series data. Another unique benefit of HTMs is its independence from training and testing cycle; all the learning takes place online with streaming data and no separate training and testing cycle is required. In sequential learning paradigm, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) offers some unique benefit for online learning and inference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid framework combining HTM and SPRT for real-time data drift detection and anomaly identification. Unlike existing data drift methods, our approach eliminates frequent retraining and ensures low false positive rates. HTMs currently work with one dimensional or univariate data. In a second study, we also propose an application of HTM in multidimensional supervised scenario for anomaly detection by combining the outputs of multiple HTM columns, one for each dimension of the data, through a neural network. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional drift detection techniques like the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, Wasserstein distance, and Population Stability Index (PSI) in terms of accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. Our experiments also provide insights into optimizing hyperparameters for real-time deployment in domains such as Telecom.

Given time series data, how can we answer questions like "what will happen in the future?" and "how did we get here?" These sorts of probabilistic inference questions are challenging when observations are high-dimensional. In this paper, we show how these questions can have compact, closed form solutions in terms of learned representations. The key idea is to apply a variant of contrastive learning to time series data. Prior work already shows that the representations learned by contrastive learning encode a probability ratio. By extending prior work to show that the marginal distribution over representations is Gaussian, we can then prove that joint distribution of representations is also Gaussian. Taken together, these results show that representations learned via temporal contrastive learning follow a Gauss-Markov chain, a graphical model where inference (e.g., prediction, planning) over representations corresponds to inverting a low-dimensional matrix. In one special case, inferring intermediate representations will be equivalent to interpolating between the learned representations. We validate our theory using numerical simulations on tasks up to 46-dimensions.

State density distribution, in contrast to worst-case reachability, can be leveraged for safety-related problems to better quantify the likelihood of the risk for potentially hazardous situations. In this work, we propose a data-driven method to compute the density distribution of reachable states for nonlinear and even black-box systems. Our semi-supervised approach learns system dynamics and the state density jointly from trajectory data, guided by the fact that the state density evolution follows the Liouville partial differential equation. With the help of neural network reachability tools, our approach can estimate the set of all possible future states as well as their density. Moreover, we could perform online safety verification with probability ranges for unsafe behaviors to occur. We use an extensive set of experiments to show that our learned solution can produce a much more accurate estimate on density distribution, and can quantify risks less conservatively and flexibly comparing with worst-case analysis.

This paper presents Randomized AutoRegressive modeling (RAR) for visual generation, which sets a new state-of-the-art performance on the image generation task while maintaining full compatibility with language modeling frameworks. The proposed RAR is simple: during a standard autoregressive training process with a next-token prediction objective, the input sequence-typically ordered in raster form-is randomly permuted into different factorization orders with a probability r, where r starts at 1 and linearly decays to 0 over the course of training. This annealing training strategy enables the model to learn to maximize the expected likelihood over all factorization orders and thus effectively improve the model's capability of modeling bidirectional contexts. Importantly, RAR preserves the integrity of the autoregressive modeling framework, ensuring full compatibility with language modeling while significantly improving performance in image generation. On the ImageNet-256 benchmark, RAR achieves an FID score of 1.48, not only surpassing prior state-of-the-art autoregressive image generators but also outperforming leading diffusion-based and masked transformer-based methods. Code and models will be made available at https://github.com/bytedance/1d-tokenizer

While reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has advanced LLM reasoning in structured domains like mathematics and programming, its application to general-domain reasoning tasks remains challenging due to the absence of verifiable reward signals. To this end, methods like Reinforcement Learning with Reference Probability Reward (RLPR) have emerged, leveraging the probability of generating the final answer as a reward signal. However, these outcome-focused approaches neglect crucial step-by-step supervision of the reasoning process itself. To address this gap, we introduce Probabilistic Process Supervision (P2S), a novel self-supervision framework that provides fine-grained process rewards without requiring a separate reward model or human-annotated reasoning steps. During reinforcement learning, P2S synthesizes and filters a high-quality reference reasoning chain (gold-CoT). The core of our method is to calculate a Path Faithfulness Reward (PFR) for each reasoning step, which is derived from the conditional probability of generating the gold-CoT's suffix, given the model's current reasoning prefix. Crucially, this PFR can be flexibly integrated with any outcome-based reward, directly tackling the reward sparsity problem by providing dense guidance. Extensive experiments on reading comprehension and medical Question Answering benchmarks show that P2S significantly outperforms strong baselines.

Recent diffusion models achieve the state-of-the-art performance in image generation, but often suffer from semantic inconsistencies or hallucinations. While various inference-time guidance methods can enhance generation, they often operate indirectly by relying on external signals or architectural modifications, which introduces additional computational overhead. In this paper, we propose Tangential Amplifying Guidance (TAG), a more efficient and direct guidance method that operates solely on trajectory signals without modifying the underlying diffusion model. TAG leverages an intermediate sample as a projection basis and amplifies the tangential components of the estimated scores with respect to this basis to correct the sampling trajectory. We formalize this guidance process by leveraging a first-order Taylor expansion, which demonstrates that amplifying the tangential component steers the state toward higher-probability regions, thereby reducing inconsistencies and enhancing sample quality. TAG is a plug-and-play, architecture-agnostic module that improves diffusion sampling fidelity with minimal computational addition, offering a new perspective on diffusion guidance.

Generative recommendation via autoregressive models has unified retrieval and ranking into a single conditional generation framework. However, fine-tuning these models with Reinforcement Learning (RL) often suffers from a fundamental probability-reward mismatch. Conventional likelihood-dominated decoding (e.g., beam search) exhibits a myopic bias toward locally probable prefixes, which causes two critical failures: (1) insufficient exploration, where high-reward items in low-probability branches are prematurely pruned and rarely sampled, and (2) advantage compression, where trajectories sharing high-probability prefixes receive highly correlated rewards with low within-group variance, yielding a weak comparative signal for RL. To address these challenges, we propose V-STAR, a Value-guided Sampling and Tree-structured Advantage Reinforcement framework. V-STAR forms a self-evolving loop via two synergistic components. First, a Value-Guided Efficient Decoding (VED) is developed to identify decisive nodes and selectively deepen high-potential prefixes. This improves exploration efficiency without exhaustive tree search. Second, we propose Sibling-GRPO, which exploits the induced tree topology to compute sibling-relative advantages and concentrates learning signals on decisive branching decisions. Extensive experiments on both offline and online datasets demonstrate that V-STAR outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, delivering superior accuracy and candidate-set diversity under strict latency constraints.

Audio can disclose PII, particularly when combined with related text data. Therefore, it is essential to develop tools to detect privacy leakage in Contrastive Language-Audio Pretraining(CLAP). Existing MIAs need audio as input, risking exposure of voiceprint and requiring costly shadow models. We first propose PRMID, a membership inference detector based probability ranking given by CLAP, which does not require training shadow models but still requires both audio and text of the individual as input. To address these limitations, we then propose USMID, a textual unimodal speaker-level membership inference detector, querying the target model using only text data. We randomly generate textual gibberish that are clearly not in training dataset. Then we extract feature vectors from these texts using the CLAP model and train a set of anomaly detectors on them. During inference, the feature vector of each test text is input into the anomaly detector to determine if the speaker is in the training set (anomalous) or not (normal). If available, USMID can further enhance detection by integrating real audio of the tested speaker. Extensive experiments on various CLAP model architectures and datasets demonstrate that USMID outperforms baseline methods using only text data.

Image generation using diffusion models have demonstrated outstanding learning capabilities, effectively capturing the full distribution of the training dataset. They are known to generate wide variations in sampled images, albeit with a trade-off in image fidelity. Guided sampling methods, such as classifier guidance (CG) and classifier-free guidance (CFG), focus sampling in well-learned high-probability regions to generate images of high fidelity, but each has its limitations. CG is computationally expensive due to the use of back-propagation for classifier gradient descent, while CFG, being gradient-free, is more efficient but compromises class label alignment compared to CG. In this work, we propose an efficient guidance method that fully utilizes a pre-trained classifier without using gradient descent. By using the classifier solely in inference mode, a time-adaptive reference class label and corresponding guidance scale are determined at each time step for guided sampling. Experiments on both class-conditioned and text-to-image generation diffusion models demonstrate that the proposed Gradient-free Classifier Guidance (GFCG) method consistently improves class prediction accuracy. We also show GFCG to be complementary to other guided sampling methods like CFG. When combined with the state-of-the-art Autoguidance (ATG), without additional computational overhead, it enhances image fidelity while preserving diversity. For ImageNet 512times512, we achieve a record FD_{DINOv2} of 23.09, while simultaneously attaining a higher classification Precision (94.3%) compared to ATG (90.2%)

Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms have seen remarkable progress, but key challenges remain. Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO) is known for ensuring monotonic policy improvement through conservative updates within a trust region, backed by strong theoretical guarantees. However, its reliance on complex second-order optimization limits its practical efficiency. Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) addresses this by simplifying TRPO's approach using ratio clipping, improving efficiency but sacrificing some theoretical robustness. This raises a natural question: Can we combine the strengths of both methods? In this paper, we introduce Simple Policy Optimization (SPO), a novel unconstrained first-order algorithm. By slightly modifying the policy loss used in PPO, SPO can achieve the best of both worlds. Our new objective improves upon ratio clipping, offering stronger theoretical properties and better constraining the probability ratio within the trust region. Empirical results demonstrate that SPO outperforms PPO with a simple implementation, particularly for training large, complex network architectures end-to-end.

Reinforcement Learning from Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a promising framework for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models. However, existing approaches such as GRPO often suffer from zero gradients. This problem arises primarily due to fixed clipping bounds for token-level probability ratios and the standardization of identical rewards, which can lead to ineffective gradient updates and underutilization of generated responses. In this work, we propose Dynamic Clipping Policy Optimization (DCPO), which introduces a dynamic clipping strategy that adaptively adjusts the clipping bounds based on token-specific prior probabilities to enhance token-level exploration, and a smooth advantage standardization technique that standardizes rewards across cumulative training steps to improve the response-level effective utilization of generated responses. DCPO achieved state-of-the-art performance on four benchmarks based on four different models. In particular, DCPO achieved an Avg@1 of 46.7 under greedy decoding and an Avg@32 of 38.8 under 32 times sampling on the AIME24 benchmark, surpassing both DAPO (36.7/31.6) and GRPO (36.7/32.1) on the Qwen2.5-Math-7B model. On the AIME25 benchmark based on Qwen2.5-14B, DCPO achieves a performance of (23.3/19.0), surpassing GRPO (13.3/10.5) and DAPO (20.0/15.3). Furthermore, DCPO achieved an average 28% improvement in the nonzero advantage over GRPO in four models, doubled the training efficiency over DAPO, and significantly reduced the token clipping ratio by an order of magnitude compared to both GRPO and DAPO, while achieving superior performance. These results highlight DCPO's effectiveness in leveraging generated data more efficiently for reinforcement learning in large language models.

Scaling generative AI models is bottlenecked by the scarcity of high-quality training data. The ease of synthesizing from a generative model suggests using (unverified) synthetic data to augment a limited corpus of real data for the purpose of fine-tuning in the hope of improving performance. Unfortunately, however, the resulting positive feedback loop leads to model autophagy disorder (MAD, aka model collapse) that results in a rapid degradation in sample quality and/or diversity. In this paper, we introduce Neon (for Negative Extrapolation frOm self-traiNing), a new learning method that turns the degradation from self-training into a powerful signal for self-improvement. Given a base model, Neon first fine-tunes it on its own self-synthesized data but then, counterintuitively, reverses its gradient updates to extrapolate away from the degraded weights. We prove that Neon works because typical inference samplers that favor high-probability regions create a predictable anti-alignment between the synthetic and real data population gradients, which negative extrapolation corrects to better align the model with the true data distribution. Neon is remarkably easy to implement via a simple post-hoc merge that requires no new real data, works effectively with as few as 1k synthetic samples, and typically uses less than 1% additional training compute. We demonstrate Neon's universality across a range of architectures (diffusion, flow matching, autoregressive, and inductive moment matching models) and datasets (ImageNet, CIFAR-10, and FFHQ). In particular, on ImageNet 256x256, Neon elevates the xAR-L model to a new state-of-the-art FID of 1.02 with only 0.36% additional training compute. Code is available at https://github.com/SinaAlemohammad/Neon

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via either Monte Carlo or expectation-maximization methods. In this work we introduce an alternative, variational inference algorithm for Markov jump processes which relies on neural ordinary differential equations, and is trainable via back-propagation. Our methodology learns neural, continuous-time representations of the observed data, that are used to approximate the initial distribution and time-dependent transition probability rates of the posterior Markov jump process. The time-independent rates of the prior process are in contrast trained akin to generative adversarial networks. We test our approach on synthetic data sampled from ground-truth Markov jump processes, experimental switching ion channel data and molecular dynamics simulations. Source code to reproduce our experiments is available online.

Many commercial Large Language Models (LLMs) are often closed-source, limiting developers to prompt tuning for aligning content generation with specific applications. While these models currently do not provide access to token logits, we argue that if such access were available, it would enable more powerful adaptation techniques beyond prompt engineering. In this paper, we propose a token-level probability reweighting framework that, given access to logits and a small amount of task-specific data, can effectively steer black-box LLMs toward application-specific content generation. Our approach views next-token prediction through the lens of supervised classification. We show that aligning black-box LLMs with task-specific data can be formulated as a label noise correction problem, leading to Plugin model -- an autoregressive probability reweighting model that operates solely on logits. We provide theoretical justification for why reweighting logits alone is sufficient for task adaptation. Extensive experiments with multiple datasets, LLMs, and reweighting models demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, advocating for broader access to token logits in closed-source models.

We study a K-armed bandit with delayed feedback and intermediate observations. We consider a model where intermediate observations have a form of a finite state, which is observed immediately after taking an action, whereas the loss is observed after an adversarially chosen delay. We show that the regime of the mapping of states to losses determines the complexity of the problem, irrespective of whether the mapping of actions to states is stochastic or adversarial. If the mapping of states to losses is adversarial, then the regret rate is of order (K+d)T (within log factors), where T is the time horizon and d is a fixed delay. This matches the regret rate of a K-armed bandit with delayed feedback and without intermediate observations, implying that intermediate observations are not helpful. However, if the mapping of states to losses is stochastic, we show that the regret grows at a rate of big(K+min{|mathcal{S|,d}big)T} (within log factors), implying that if the number |S| of states is smaller than the delay, then intermediate observations help. We also provide refined high-probability regret upper bounds for non-uniform delays, together with experimental validation of our algorithms.

Knowledge Distillation (KD) is a promising technique for reducing the high computational demand of large language models (LLMs). However, previous KD methods are primarily applied to white-box classification models or training small models to imitate black-box model APIs like ChatGPT. How to effectively distill the knowledge from white-box generative LLMs is still under-explored, which becomes more and more important with the prosperity of LLMs. In this work, we propose MiniLLM that distills smaller language models from generative larger language models. We first replace the forward Kullback-Leibler divergence (KLD) objective in the standard KD approaches with reverse KLD, which is more suitable for KD on generative language models, to prevent the student model from overestimating the low-probability regions of the teacher distribution. Then, we derive an effective optimization approach to learn this objective. Extensive experiments in the instruction-following setting show that the MiniLLM models generate more precise responses with the higher overall quality, lower exposure bias, better calibration, and higher long-text generation performance. Our method is also scalable for different model families with 120M to 13B parameters. We will release our code and model checkpoints at https://aka.ms/MiniLLM.

Creative image generation has emerged as a compelling area of research, driven by the need to produce novel and high-quality images that expand the boundaries of imagination. In this work, we propose a novel framework for creative generation using diffusion models, where creativity is associated with the inverse probability of an image's existence in the CLIP embedding space. Unlike prior approaches that rely on a manual blending of concepts or exclusion of subcategories, our method calculates the probability distribution of generated images and drives it towards low-probability regions to produce rare, imaginative, and visually captivating outputs. We also introduce pullback mechanisms, achieving high creativity without sacrificing visual fidelity. Extensive experiments on text-to-image diffusion models demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our creative generation framework, showcasing its ability to produce unique, novel, and thought-provoking images. This work provides a new perspective on creativity in generative models, offering a principled method to foster innovation in visual content synthesis.

Shadow tomography for quantum states provides a sample efficient approach for predicting the properties of quantum systems when the properties are restricted to expectation values of 2-outcome POVMs. However, these shadow tomography procedures yield poor bounds if there are more than 2 outcomes per measurement. In this paper, we consider a general problem of learning properties from unknown quantum states: given an unknown d-dimensional quantum state rho and M unknown quantum measurements M_1,...,M_M with Kgeq 2 outcomes, estimating the probability distribution for applying M_i on rho to within total variation distance epsilon. Compared to the special case when K=2, we need to learn unknown distributions instead of values. We develop an online shadow tomography procedure that solves this problem with high success probability requiring O(Klog^2Mlog d/epsilon^4) copies of rho. We further prove an information-theoretic lower bound that at least Omega(min{d^2,K+log M}/epsilon^2) copies of rho are required to solve this problem with high success probability. Our shadow tomography procedure requires sample complexity with only logarithmic dependence on M and d and is sample-optimal for the dependence on K.

While Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have achieved remarkable success in interpreting natural scenes, their ability to process discrete symbols -- the fundamental building blocks of human cognition -- remains a critical open question. Unlike continuous visual data, symbols such as mathematical formulas, chemical structures, and linguistic characters require precise, deeper interpretation. This paper introduces a comprehensive benchmark to evaluate how top-tier MLLMs navigate these "discrete semantic spaces" across five domains: language, culture, mathematics, physics, and chemistry. Our investigation uncovers a counterintuitive phenomenon: models often fail at basic symbol recognition yet succeed in complex reasoning tasks, suggesting they rely on linguistic probability rather than true visual perception. By exposing this "cognitive mismatch", we highlight a significant gap in current AI capabilities: the struggle to truly perceive and understand the symbolic languages that underpin scientific discovery and abstract thought. This work offers a roadmap for developing more rigorous, human-aligned intelligent systems.

Recent AI-based video editing has enabled users to edit videos through simple text prompts, significantly simplifying the editing process. However, recent zero-shot video editing techniques primarily focus on global or single-object edits, which can lead to unintended changes in other parts of the video. When multiple objects require localized edits, existing methods face challenges, such as unfaithful editing, editing leakage, and lack of suitable evaluation datasets and metrics. To overcome these limitations, we propose a zero-shot Multi-Instance Video Editing framework, called MIVE. MIVE is a general-purpose mask-based framework, not dedicated to specific objects (e.g., people). MIVE introduces two key modules: (i) Disentangled Multi-instance Sampling (DMS) to prevent editing leakage and (ii) Instance-centric Probability Redistribution (IPR) to ensure precise localization and faithful editing. Additionally, we present our new MIVE Dataset featuring diverse video scenarios and introduce the Cross-Instance Accuracy (CIA) Score to evaluate editing leakage in multi-instance video editing tasks. Our extensive qualitative, quantitative, and user study evaluations demonstrate that MIVE significantly outperforms recent state-of-the-art methods in terms of editing faithfulness, accuracy, and leakage prevention, setting a new benchmark for multi-instance video editing. The project page is available at https://kaist-viclab.github.io/mive-site/

Variational quantum circuits (VQCs) built upon noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) hardware, in conjunction with classical processing, constitute a promising architecture for quantum simulations, classical optimization, and machine learning. However, the required VQC depth to demonstrate a quantum advantage over classical schemes is beyond the reach of available NISQ devices. Supervised learning assisted by an entangled sensor network (SLAEN) is a distinct paradigm that harnesses VQCs trained by classical machine-learning algorithms to tailor multipartite entanglement shared by sensors for solving practically useful data-processing problems. Here, we report the first experimental demonstration of SLAEN and show an entanglement-enabled reduction in the error probability for classification of multidimensional radio-frequency signals. Our work paves a new route for quantum-enhanced data processing and its applications in the NISQ era.

The Monty Hall problem is a classic probability puzzle known for its counterintuitive solution, revealing fundamental discrepancies between mathematical reasoning and human intuition. To bridge this gap, we introduce a novel explanatory framework inspired by quantum measurement theory. Specifically, we conceptualize the hosts' actions-opening doors to reveal non-prizes-as analogous to quantum measurements that cause asymmetric collapses of the probability distribution. This quantum-inspired interpretation not only clarifies why the intuitive misunderstanding arises but also provides generalized formulas consistent with standard Bayesian results. We further validate our analytical approach using Monte Carlo simulations across various problem settings, demonstrating precise agreement between theoretical predictions and empirical outcomes. Our quantum analogy thus offers a powerful pedagogical tool, enhancing intuitive understanding of conditional probability phenomena through the lens of probability redistribution and quantum-like measurement operations.

State-of-the-art language models are autoregressive and operate on subword units known as tokens. Specifically, one must encode the conditioning string into a list of tokens before passing to the language models for next-token prediction. We show that popular encoding schemes, such as maximum prefix encoding (MPE) and byte-pair-encoding (BPE), induce a sampling bias that cannot be mitigated with more training or data. To counter this universal problem, for each encoding scheme above, we propose a novel algorithm to obtain unbiased estimates from any language model trained on tokenized data. Our methods do not require finetuning the model, and the complexity, defined as the number of model runs, scales linearly with the sequence length in the case of MPE. As a result, we show that one can simulate token-free behavior from a tokenized language model. We empirically verify the correctness of our method through a Markov-chain setup, where it accurately recovers the transition probabilities, as opposed to the conventional method of directly prompting tokens into the language model.

Reinforcement Learning has emerged as the fundamental technique for enhancing reasoning in LLMs. However, existing algorithms apply uniform optimization to all tokens, ignoring their different roles in reasoning process. To address this limitation, we introduce Heterogeneous Adaptive Policy Optimization (HAPO), a comprehensive token-aware algorithm that dynamically adapts optimization based on token entropy. For rollout sampling, we propose Adaptive Temperature Sampling, which adjusts sampling temperature in real time, promoting exploration at high-entropy tokens while preserving coherence at low-entropy ones. For advantage calculation, we introduce Token Level Group Average that normalizes advantages at token level, jointly accounting for sequence-length as in token-mean loss while preserving non-biased treatment. We then develop Differential Advantage Redistribution that leverages entropy and importance ratios to modulate rewards-adjusting updates for tokens with clear signals. For clipping loss, we design Asymmetric Adaptive Clipping, allowing aggressive probability reduction for noisy low-entropy tokens while enabling exploration for high-entropy tokens. Through systematic investigation between entropy and training dynamics, we embedded token-level treatment into every stages to achieve fine-grained control. Extensive experiments demonstrate that HAPO consistently outperforms DAPO across multiple model scales. Our code can be found in https://github.com/starriver030515/HAPO.

We analyse linear ensemble sampling (ES) with standard Gaussian perturbations in stochastic linear bandits. We show that for ensemble size m=Θ(dlog n), ES attains tilde O(d^{3/2}sqrt n) high-probability regret, closing the gap to the Thompson sampling benchmark while keeping computation comparable. The proof brings a new perspective on randomized exploration in linear bandits by reducing the analysis to a time-uniform exceedance problem for m independent Brownian motions. Intriguingly, this continuous-time lens is not forced; it appears natural--and perhaps necessary: the discrete-time problem seems to be asking for a continuous-time solution, and we know of no other way to obtain a sharp ES bound.

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown stellar achievements in solving a broad range of tasks. When generating text, it is common to sample tokens from these models: whether LLMs closely align with the human disagreement distribution has not been well-studied, especially within the scope of Natural Language Inference (NLI). In this paper, we evaluate the performance and alignment of LLM distribution with humans using two different techniques: Monte Carlo Reconstruction (MCR) and Log Probability Reconstruction (LPR). As a result, we show LLMs exhibit limited ability in solving NLI tasks and simultaneously fail to capture human disagreement distribution, raising concerns about their natural language understanding (NLU) ability and their representativeness of human users.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in joint vision-language understanding, but their large scale poses significant challenges for deployment in resource-constrained scenarios. Knowledge Distillation (KD) offers a viable way to improve model capabilities without increasing model size or data requirements, making deployment more efficient. However, applying KD to VLMs is challenged by modality-specific supervision: although multimodal knowledge in VLMs is fused within the language space, current methods supervise each modality separately without explicitly addressing multimodal alignment, leading to inconsistent multimodal knowledge transfer. To address this, we propose Switch-KD, a visual-switch distillation framework that unifies vision-language knowledge transfer within a shared text-probability space. Switch-KD comprises two key components: (1) Visual-Switch Distillation, which switches the student's visual outputs into the teacher's language pathway to construct cross-modal probabilistic references for implicit visual knowledge transfer; and (2) Dynamic Bi-directional Logits Difference (DBiLD) loss, which adaptively aligns informative probability regions while preserving the distributional structures of teacher and student through bidirectional supervision. Guided by Switch-KD, a 0.5B TinyLLaVA effectively distills rich multimodal knowledge from its 3B teacher, yielding an average improvement of 3.6 points across 10 multimodal benchmarks without any architectural modification.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have garnered significant attention for their impressive general-purpose capabilities. For applications requiring intricate domain knowledge, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) has shown a distinct advantage in incorporating domain-specific information into LLMs. However, existing RAG research has not fully addressed the challenges of Multiple Choice Question Answering (MCQA) in telecommunications, particularly in terms of retrieval quality and mitigating hallucinations. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel first token probability guided RAG framework. This framework leverages confidence scores to optimize key hyperparameters, such as chunk number and chunk window size, while dynamically adjusting the context. Our method starts by retrieving the most relevant chunks and generates a single token as the potential answer. The probabilities of all options are then normalized to serve as confidence scores, which guide the dynamic adjustment of the context. By iteratively optimizing the hyperparameters based on these confidence scores, we can continuously improve RAG performance. We conducted experiments to validate the effectiveness of our framework, demonstrating its potential to enhance accuracy in domain-specific MCQA tasks.

During recent years the interest of optimization and machine learning communities in high-probability convergence of stochastic optimization methods has been growing. One of the main reasons for this is that high-probability complexity bounds are more accurate and less studied than in-expectation ones. However, SOTA high-probability non-asymptotic convergence results are derived under strong assumptions such as the boundedness of the gradient noise variance or of the objective's gradient itself. In this paper, we propose several algorithms with high-probability convergence results under less restrictive assumptions. In particular, we derive new high-probability convergence results under the assumption that the gradient/operator noise has bounded central alpha-th moment for alpha in (1,2] in the following setups: (i) smooth non-convex / Polyak-Lojasiewicz / convex / strongly convex / quasi-strongly convex minimization problems, (ii) Lipschitz / star-cocoercive and monotone / quasi-strongly monotone variational inequalities. These results justify the usage of the considered methods for solving problems that do not fit standard functional classes studied in stochastic optimization.

Canada experienced in 2023 one of the most severe wildfire seasons in recent history, causing damage across ecosystems, destroying communities, and emitting large quantities of CO2. This extreme wildfire season is symptomatic of a climate-change-induced increase in the length and severity of the fire season that affects the boreal ecosystem. Therefore, it is critical to empower wildfire management in boreal communities with better mitigation solutions. Wildfire probability maps represent an important tool for understanding the likelihood of wildfire occurrence and the potential severity of future wildfires. The massive increase in the availability of Earth observation data has enabled the development of deep learning-based wildfire forecasting models, aiming at providing precise wildfire probability maps at different spatial and temporal scales. A main limitation of such methods is their reliance on coarse-resolution environmental drivers and satellite products, leading to wildfire occurrence prediction of reduced resolution, typically around sim 0.1{\deg}. This paper presents a benchmark dataset: CanadaFireSat, and baseline methods for high-resolution: 100 m wildfire forecasting across Canada, leveraging multi-modal data from high-resolution multi-spectral satellite images (Sentinel-2 L1C), mid-resolution satellite products (MODIS), and environmental factors (ERA5 reanalysis data). Our experiments consider two major deep learning architectures. We observe that using multi-modal temporal inputs outperforms single-modal temporal inputs across all metrics, achieving a peak performance of 60.3% in F1 score for the 2023 wildfire season, a season never seen during model training. This demonstrates the potential of multi-modal deep learning models for wildfire forecasting at high-resolution and continental scale.

While transformer-based systems have enabled greater accuracies with fewer training examples, data acquisition obstacles still persist for rare-class tasks -- when the class label is very infrequent (e.g. < 5% of samples). Active learning has in general been proposed to alleviate such challenges, but choice of selection strategy, the criteria by which rare-class examples are chosen, has not been systematically evaluated. Further, transformers enable iterative transfer-learning approaches. We propose and investigate transfer- and active learning solutions to the rare class problem of dissonance detection through utilizing models trained on closely related tasks and the evaluation of acquisition strategies, including a proposed probability-of-rare-class (PRC) approach. We perform these experiments for a specific rare class problem: collecting language samples of cognitive dissonance from social media. We find that PRC is a simple and effective strategy to guide annotations and ultimately improve model accuracy while transfer-learning in a specific order can improve the cold-start performance of the learner but does not benefit iterations of active learning.

In October 2007, a Research Proposal for the University of Sydney, Australia, the author suggested that biovie-physical phenomenon as `electrodynamic dependant biological vision', is governed by relativistic quantum laws and biovision. The phenomenon on the basis of `biovielectroluminescence', satisfies man/microbio/megabio/computer vision (MMMCV), as a robust candidate for physical and visual sciences. The general aim of this addendum is to present a refined text of Sections 1-3 of that proposal and highlighting the contents of its Appendix in form of a `Mechanisms' Section. We then briefly remind in an article aimed for December 2007, by appending two more equations into Section 3, a theoretical II-time scenario as a time model well-proposed for the phenomenon. The time model within the core of the proposal, plays a significant role in emphasizing the principle points on Objectives no. 1-8, Sub-hypothesis 3.1.2, mentioned in Article [arXiv:0710.0410]. It also expresses the time concept in terms of causing quantized energy f(|E|) of time |t|, emit in regard to shortening the probability of particle loci as predictable patterns of particle's un-occurred motion, a solution to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle (HUP) into a simplistic manner. We conclude that, practical frames via a time algorithm to this model, fixates such predictable patterns of motion of scenery bodies onto recordable observation points of a MMMCV system. It even suppresses/predicts superposition phenomena coming from a human subject and/or other bio-subjects for any decision making event, e.g., brainwave quantum patterns based on vision. Maintaining the existential probability of Riemann surfaces of II-time scenarios in the context of biovielectroluminescence, makes motion-prediction a possibility.

Motion generation is essential for animating virtual characters and embodied agents. While recent text-driven methods have made significant strides, they often struggle with achieving precise alignment between linguistic descriptions and motion semantics, as well as with the inefficiencies of slow, multi-step inference. To address these issues, we introduce TMR++ Aligned Preference Optimization (TAPO), an innovative framework that aligns subtle motion variations with textual modifiers and incorporates iterative adjustments to reinforce semantic grounding. To further enable real-time synthesis, we propose MotionFLUX, a high-speed generation framework based on deterministic rectified flow matching. Unlike traditional diffusion models, which require hundreds of denoising steps, MotionFLUX constructs optimal transport paths between noise distributions and motion spaces, facilitating real-time synthesis. The linearized probability paths reduce the need for multi-step sampling typical of sequential methods, significantly accelerating inference time without sacrificing motion quality. Experimental results demonstrate that, together, TAPO and MotionFLUX form a unified system that outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in both semantic consistency and motion quality, while also accelerating generation speed. The code and pretrained models will be released.

Large Language Models (LLMs) often produce plausible but poorly-calibrated answers, limiting their reliability on reasoning-intensive tasks. We present Reinforcement Learning from Self-Feedback (RLSF), a post-training stage that uses the model's own confidence as an intrinsic reward, mimicking how humans learn in the absence of external feedback. After a frozen LLM generates several chain-of-thought solutions, we define and compute the confidence of each final answer span and rank the traces accordingly. These synthetic preferences are then used to fine-tune the policy with standard preference optimization, similar to RLHF yet requiring no human labels, gold answers, or externally curated rewards. RLSF simultaneously (i) refines the model's probability estimates -- restoring well-behaved calibration -- and (ii) strengthens step-by-step reasoning, yielding improved performance on arithmetic reasoning and multiple-choice question answering. By turning a model's own uncertainty into useful self-feedback, RLSF affirms reinforcement learning on intrinsic model behaviour as a principled and data-efficient component of the LLM post-training pipeline and warrents further research in intrinsic rewards for LLM post-training.

Current approaches to sales conversation analysis and conversion prediction typically rely on Large Language Models (LLMs) combined with basic retrieval augmented generation (RAG). These systems, while capable of answering questions, fail to accurately predict conversion probability or provide strategic guidance in real time. In this paper, we present SalesRLAgent, a novel framework leveraging specialized reinforcement learning to predict conversion probability throughout sales conversations. Unlike systems from Kapa.ai, Mendable, Inkeep, and others that primarily use off-the-shelf LLMs for content generation, our approach treats conversion prediction as a sequential decision problem, training on synthetic data generated using GPT-4O to develop a specialized probability estimation model. Our system incorporates Azure OpenAI embeddings (3072 dimensions), turn-by-turn state tracking, and meta-learning capabilities to understand its own knowledge boundaries. Evaluations demonstrate that SalesRLAgent achieves 96.7% accuracy in conversion prediction, outperforming LLM-only approaches by 34.7% while offering significantly faster inference (85ms vs 3450ms for GPT-4). Furthermore, integration with existing sales platforms shows a 43.2% increase in conversion rates when representatives utilize our system's real-time guidance. SalesRLAgent represents a fundamental shift from content generation to strategic sales intelligence, providing moment-by-moment conversion probability estimation with actionable insights for sales professionals.

We introduce two complementary techniques for efficient adaptive optimization that reduce memory requirements while accelerating training of large-scale neural networks. The first technique, Subset-Norm adaptive step size, generalizes AdaGrad-Norm and AdaGrad(-Coordinate) by reducing the second moment term's memory footprint from O(d) to O(d) through step-size sharing, where d is the model size. For non-convex smooth objectives under coordinate-wise sub-gaussian gradient noise, we prove a noise-adapted high-probability convergence guarantee showing improved dimensional dependence over existing methods. Our second technique, Subspace-Momentum, reduces the momentum state's memory footprint by operating in a low-dimensional subspace while applying standard SGD in the orthogonal complement. We establish high-probability convergence rates under similar relaxed assumptions. Empirical evaluation on LLaMA models from 60M to 1B parameters demonstrates the effectiveness of our methods, where combining subset-norm with subspace-momentum achieves Adam's validation perplexity in approximately half the training tokens (6.8B vs 13.1B) while using only 20% of the Adam's optimizer-states memory footprint and requiring minimal additional hyperparameter tuning.

Long chain-of-thought (CoT) trajectories provide rich supervision signals for distilling reasoning from teacher to student LLMs. However, both prior work and our experiments show that trajectories from stronger teachers do not necessarily yield better students, highlighting the importance of data-student suitability in distillation. Existing methods assess suitability primarily through student likelihood, favoring trajectories that closely align with the model's current behavior but overlooking more informative ones. Addressing this, we propose Rank-Surprisal Ratio (RSR), a simple metric that captures both alignment and informativeness to assess the suitability of a reasoning trajectory. RSR is motivated by the observation that effective trajectories typically combine low absolute probability with relatively high-ranked tokens under the student model, balancing learning signal strength and behavioral alignment. Concretely, RSR is defined as the ratio of a trajectory's average token-wise rank to its average negative log-likelihood, and is straightforward to compute and interpret. Across five student models and reasoning trajectories from 11 diverse teachers, RSR strongly correlates with post-training performance (average Spearman 0.86), outperforming existing metrics. We further demonstrate its practical utility in both trajectory selection and teacher selection.

With an estimated 160,000 deaths in 2018, lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer death in the United States. Lung cancer CT screening has been shown to reduce mortality by up to 40% and is now included in US screening guidelines. Reducing the high error rates in lung cancer screening is imperative because of the high clinical and financial costs caused by diagnosis mistakes. Despite the use of standards for radiological diagnosis, persistent inter-grader variability and incomplete characterization of comprehensive imaging findings remain as limitations of current methods. These limitations suggest opportunities for more sophisticated systems to improve performance and inter-reader consistency. In this report, we reproduce a state-of-the-art deep learning algorithm for lung cancer risk prediction. Our model predicts malignancy probability and risk bucket classification from lung CT studies. This allows for risk categorization of patients being screened and suggests the most appropriate surveillance and management. Combining our solution high accuracy, consistency and fully automated nature, our approach may enable highly efficient screening procedures and accelerate the adoption of lung cancer screening.

In this paper, we propose a novel model compression approach to effectively compress BERT by progressive module replacing. Our approach first divides the original BERT into several modules and builds their compact substitutes. Then, we randomly replace the original modules with their substitutes to train the compact modules to mimic the behavior of the original modules. We progressively increase the probability of replacement through the training. In this way, our approach brings a deeper level of interaction between the original and compact models. Compared to the previous knowledge distillation approaches for BERT compression, our approach does not introduce any additional loss function. Our approach outperforms existing knowledge distillation approaches on GLUE benchmark, showing a new perspective of model compression.

Query rewriting is a classical technique for transforming complex declarative SQL queries into ``lean'' equivalents that are conducive to (a) faster execution from a performance perspective, and (b) better understanding from a developer perspective. The rewriting is typically achieved via transformation rules, but these rules are limited in scope and difficult to update in a production system. In recent times, LLM-based techniques have also been mooted, but they are prone to both semantic and syntactic errors. We investigate here, how the remarkable cognitive capabilities of LLMs can be leveraged for performant query rewriting while incorporating safeguards and optimizations to ensure correctness and efficiency. Our study shows that these goals can be progressively achieved through incorporation of (a) an ensemble suite of basic prompts, (b) database-sensitive prompts via redundancy removal and selectivity-based rewriting rules, and (c) LLM token probability-guided rewrite paths. Further, a suite of statistical and logic-based tools can be used to guard against errors produced by the model. We have implemented the above LLM-infused techniques in the LITHE system, and evaluated complex analytic queries from multiple benchmarks on contemporary database platforms. The results show significant improvements over SOTA rewriting techniques -- for instance, on TPC-DS, LITHE constructed productive (>1.5x speedup) rewrites for two-thirds of the query suite, delivering four times more coverage than SOTA. Further, the geometric mean of its estimated execution speedups was an order-of-magnitude jump over SOTA performance. In essence, LITHE offers a potent and robust LLM-based intermediary between enterprise applications and database engines.

Higher-order probabilistic programming languages allow programmers to write sophisticated models in machine learning and statistics in a succinct and structured way, but step outside the standard measure-theoretic formalization of probability theory. Programs may use both higher-order functions and continuous distributions, or even define a probability distribution on functions. But standard probability theory does not handle higher-order functions well: the category of measurable spaces is not cartesian closed. Here we introduce quasi-Borel spaces. We show that these spaces: form a new formalization of probability theory replacing measurable spaces; form a cartesian closed category and so support higher-order functions; form a well-pointed category and so support good proof principles for equational reasoning; and support continuous probability distributions. We demonstrate the use of quasi-Borel spaces for higher-order functions and probability by: showing that a well-known construction of probability theory involving random functions gains a cleaner expression; and generalizing de Finetti's theorem, that is a crucial theorem in probability theory, to quasi-Borel spaces.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across numerous tasks, yet they often rely on external context to handle complex tasks. While retrieval-augmented frameworks traditionally focus on selecting top-ranked documents in a single pass, many real-world scenarios demand compositional retrieval, where multiple sources must be combined in a coordinated manner. In this work, we propose a tri-encoder sequential retriever that models this process as a Markov Decision Process (MDP), decomposing the probability of retrieving a set of elements into a sequence of conditional probabilities and allowing each retrieval step to be conditioned on previously selected examples. We train the retriever in two stages: first, we efficiently construct supervised sequential data for initial policy training; we then refine the policy to align with the LLM's preferences using a reward grounded in the structural correspondence of generated programs. Experimental results show that our method consistently and significantly outperforms baselines, underscoring the importance of explicitly modeling inter-example dependencies. These findings highlight the potential of compositional retrieval for tasks requiring multiple pieces of evidence or examples.

As deep learning models are increasingly deployed in safety-critical applications, evaluating their vulnerabilities to adversarial perturbations is essential for ensuring their reliability and trustworthiness. Over the past decade, a large number of white-box adversarial robustness evaluation methods (i.e., attacks) have been proposed, ranging from single-step to multi-step methods and from individual to ensemble methods. Despite these advances, challenges remain in conducting meaningful and comprehensive robustness evaluations, particularly when it comes to large-scale testing and ensuring evaluations reflect real-world adversarial risks. In this work, we focus on image classification models and propose a novel individual attack method, Probability Margin Attack (PMA), which defines the adversarial margin in the probability space rather than the logits space. We analyze the relationship between PMA and existing cross-entropy or logits-margin-based attacks, and show that PMA can outperform the current state-of-the-art individual methods. Building on PMA, we propose two types of ensemble attacks that balance effectiveness and efficiency. Furthermore, we create a million-scale dataset, CC1M, derived from the existing CC3M dataset, and use it to conduct the first million-scale white-box adversarial robustness evaluation of adversarially-trained ImageNet models. Our findings provide valuable insights into the robustness gaps between individual versus ensemble attacks and small-scale versus million-scale evaluations.

In the past several years, the last-iterate convergence of the Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) algorithm has triggered people's interest due to its good performance in practice but lack of theoretical understanding. For Lipschitz convex functions, different works have established the optimal O(log(1/delta)log T/T) or O(log(1/delta)/T) high-probability convergence rates for the final iterate, where T is the time horizon and delta is the failure probability. However, to prove these bounds, all the existing works are either limited to compact domains or require almost surely bounded noises. It is natural to ask whether the last iterate of SGD can still guarantee the optimal convergence rate but without these two restrictive assumptions. Besides this important question, there are still lots of theoretical problems lacking an answer. For example, compared with the last-iterate convergence of SGD for non-smooth problems, only few results for smooth optimization have yet been developed. Additionally, the existing results are all limited to a non-composite objective and the standard Euclidean norm. It still remains unclear whether the last-iterate convergence can be provably extended to wider composite optimization and non-Euclidean norms. In this work, to address the issues mentioned above, we revisit the last-iterate convergence of stochastic gradient methods and provide the first unified way to prove the convergence rates both in expectation and in high probability to accommodate general domains, composite objectives, non-Euclidean norms, Lipschitz conditions, smoothness, and (strong) convexity simultaneously. Additionally, we extend our analysis to obtain the last-iterate convergence under heavy-tailed noises.

Simple regret is a natural and parameter-free performance criterion for pure exploration in multi-armed bandits yet is less popular than the probability of missing the best arm or an epsilon-good arm, perhaps due to lack of easy ways to characterize it. In this paper, we make significant progress on minimizing simple regret in both data-rich (Tge n) and data-poor regime (T le n) where n is the number of arms, and T is the number of samples. At its heart is our improved instance-dependent analysis of the well-known Sequential Halving (SH) algorithm, where we bound the probability of returning an arm whose mean reward is not within epsilon from the best (i.e., not epsilon-good) for any choice of epsilon>0, although epsilon is not an input to SH. Our bound not only leads to an optimal worst-case simple regret bound of n/T up to logarithmic factors but also essentially matches the instance-dependent lower bound for returning an epsilon-good arm reported by Katz-Samuels and Jamieson (2020). For the more challenging data-poor regime, we propose Bracketing SH (BSH) that enjoys the same improvement even without sampling each arm at least once. Our empirical study shows that BSH outperforms existing methods on real-world tasks.

With local differential privacy (LDP), users can privatize their data and thus guarantee privacy properties before transmitting it to the server (a.k.a. the aggregator). One primary objective of LDP is frequency (or histogram) estimation, in which the aggregator estimates the number of users for each possible value. In practice, when a study with rich content on a population is desired, the interest is in the multiple attributes of the population, that is to say, in multidimensional data (d geq 2). However, contrary to the problem of frequency estimation of a single attribute (the majority of the works), the multidimensional aspect imposes to pay particular attention to the privacy budget. This one can indeed grow extremely quickly due to the composition theorem. To the authors' knowledge, two solutions seem to stand out for this task: 1) splitting the privacy budget for each attribute, i.e., send each value with fracε{d}-LDP (Spl), and 2) random sampling a single attribute and spend all the privacy budget to send it with ε-LDP (Smp). Although Smp adds additional sampling error, it has proven to provide higher data utility than the former Spl solution. However, we argue that aggregators (who are also seen as attackers) are aware of the sampled attribute and its LDP value, which is protected by a "less strict" e^ε probability bound (rather than e^{ε/d}). This way, we propose a solution named Random Sampling plus Fake Data (RS+FD), which allows creating uncertainty over the sampled attribute by generating fake data for each non-sampled attribute; RS+FD further benefits from amplification by sampling. We theoretically and experimentally validate our proposed solution on both synthetic and real-world datasets to show that RS+FD achieves nearly the same or better utility than the state-of-the-art Smp solution.

To evaluate the variability of multi-phase flow properties of porous media at the pore scale, it is necessary to acquire a number of representative samples of the void-solid structure. While modern x-ray computer tomography has made it possible to extract three-dimensional images of the pore space, assessment of the variability in the inherent material properties is often experimentally not feasible. We present a novel method to reconstruct the solid-void structure of porous media by applying a generative neural network that allows an implicit description of the probability distribution represented by three-dimensional image datasets. We show, by using an adversarial learning approach for neural networks, that this method of unsupervised learning is able to generate representative samples of porous media that honor their statistics. We successfully compare measures of pore morphology, such as the Euler characteristic, two-point statistics and directional single-phase permeability of synthetic realizations with the calculated properties of a bead pack, Berea sandstone, and Ketton limestone. Results show that GANs can be used to reconstruct high-resolution three-dimensional images of porous media at different scales that are representative of the morphology of the images used to train the neural network. The fully convolutional nature of the trained neural network allows the generation of large samples while maintaining computational efficiency. Compared to classical stochastic methods of image reconstruction, the implicit representation of the learned data distribution can be stored and reused to generate multiple realizations of the pore structure very rapidly.

Digital water marking is one of the essential fields in image security and copyright protection. The proposed technique in this paper was based on the principle of protecting images by hide an invisible watermark in the image. The technique starts with merging the cover image and the watermark image with suitable ratios, i.e., 99% from the cover image will be merged with 1% from the watermark image. Technically, the fading process is irreversible but with the proposed technique, the probability to reconstruct the original watermark image is great. There is no perceptible difference between the original and watermarked image by human eye. The experimental results show that the proposed technique proven its ability to hide images that have the same size of the cover image. Three performance measures were implemented to support the proposed techniques which are MSE, PSNR, and SSIM. Fortunately, all the three measures have excellent values.

Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models advance robotic control via strong visual-linguistic priors. However, existing VLAs predominantly frame pretraining as supervised behavior cloning, overlooking the fundamental nature of robot learning as a goal-reaching process that requires understanding temporal task progress. We present PRTS (Primitive Reasoning and Tasking System), a VLA foundation model that reformulates pretraining through Goal-Conditioned Reinforcement Learning. By treating language instructions as goals and employing contrastive reinforcement learning, PRTS learns a unified embedding space where the inner product of state-action and goal embeddings approximates the log-discounted goal occupancy, the probability of reaching the language-specified goal from the current state-action, quantitatively assessing physical feasibility beyond static semantic matching. PRTS draws this dense goal-reachability supervision directly from offline trajectories without reward annotations, and folds it into the VLM backbone via a role-aware causal mask, incurring negligible overhead over vanilla behavior cloning. This paradigm endows the high-level reasoning system with intrinsic goal reachability awareness, bridging semantic reasoning and temporal task progress, and further benefits goal-conditioned action prediction. Pretrained on 167B tokens of diverse manipulation and embodied-reasoning data, PRTS reaches state-of-the-art performance on LIBERO, LIBERO-Pro, LIBERO-Plus, SimplerEnv, and a real-world suite of 14 complex tasks, with particularly substantial gains on long-horizon, contact-rich, and zero-shot novel-instruction settings, confirming that injecting goal-reachability awareness significantly improves both execution success and long-horizon planning of general-purpose robotic foundation policies.

Reliable retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems depend fundamentally on the retriever's ability to find relevant information. We show that neural retrievers used in RAG systems have blind spots, which we define as the failure to retrieve entities that are relevant to the query, but have low similarity to the query embedding. We investigate the training-induced biases that cause such blind spot entities to be mapped to inaccessible parts of the embedding space, resulting in low retrievability. Using a large-scale dataset constructed from Wikidata relations and first paragraphs of Wikipedia, and our proposed Retrieval Probability Score (RPS), we show that blind spot risk in standard retrievers (e.g., CONTRIEVER, REASONIR) can be predicted pre-index from entity embedding geometry, avoiding expensive retrieval evaluations. To address these blind spots, we introduce ARGUS, a pipeline that enables the retrievability of high-risk (low-RPS) entities through targeted document augmentation from a knowledge base (KB), first paragraphs of Wikipedia, in our case. Extensive experiments on BRIGHT, IMPLIRET, and RAR-B show that ARGUS achieves consistent improvements across all evaluated retrievers (averaging +3.4 nDCG@5 and +4.5 nDCG@10 absolute points), with substantially larger gains in challenging subsets. These results establish that preemptively remedying blind spots is critical for building robust and trustworthy RAG systems (Code and Data).

This paper studies the properties of the Multiply Iterated Poisson Process (MIPP), a stochastic process constructed by repeatedly time-changing a Poisson process, and its applications in ruin theory. Like standard Poisson processes, MIPPs have exponentially distributed sojourn times (waiting times between jumps). We explicitly derive the probabilities of all possible jump sizes at the first jump and obtain the Laplace transform of the joint distribution of the first jump time and its corresponding jump size. In ruin theory, the classical Cramér-Lundberg model assumes that claims arrive independently according to a Poisson process. In contrast, our model employs an MIPP to allow for clustered arrivals, reflecting real-world scenarios, such as catastrophic events. Under this new framework, we derive the corresponding scale function in closed form, facilitating accurate calculations of the probability of ruin in the presence of clustered claims. These results improve the modeling of extreme risks and have practical implications for insurance solvency assessments, reinsurance pricing, and capital reserve estimation.

We introduce ART, a new corpus-level autoencoding approach for training dense retrieval models that does not require any labeled training data. Dense retrieval is a central challenge for open-domain tasks, such as Open QA, where state-of-the-art methods typically require large supervised datasets with custom hard-negative mining and denoising of positive examples. ART, in contrast, only requires access to unpaired inputs and outputs (e.g. questions and potential answer documents). It uses a new document-retrieval autoencoding scheme, where (1) an input question is used to retrieve a set of evidence documents, and (2) the documents are then used to compute the probability of reconstructing the original question. Training for retrieval based on question reconstruction enables effective unsupervised learning of both document and question encoders, which can be later incorporated into complete Open QA systems without any further finetuning. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ART obtains state-of-the-art results on multiple QA retrieval benchmarks with only generic initialization from a pre-trained language model, removing the need for labeled data and task-specific losses.

Humans possess a versatile mechanism for extracting structured representations of our visual world. When looking at an image, we can decompose the scene into entities and their parts as well as obtain the dependencies between them. To mimic such capability, we propose Visual Dependency Transformers (DependencyViT) that can induce visual dependencies without any labels. We achieve that with a novel neural operator called reversed attention that can naturally capture long-range visual dependencies between image patches. Specifically, we formulate it as a dependency graph where a child token in reversed attention is trained to attend to its parent tokens and send information following a normalized probability distribution rather than gathering information in conventional self-attention. With such a design, hierarchies naturally emerge from reversed attention layers, and a dependency tree is progressively induced from leaf nodes to the root node unsupervisedly. DependencyViT offers several appealing benefits. (i) Entities and their parts in an image are represented by different subtrees, enabling part partitioning from dependencies; (ii) Dynamic visual pooling is made possible. The leaf nodes which rarely send messages can be pruned without hindering the model performance, based on which we propose the lightweight DependencyViT-Lite to reduce the computational and memory footprints; (iii) DependencyViT works well on both self- and weakly-supervised pretraining paradigms on ImageNet, and demonstrates its effectiveness on 8 datasets and 5 tasks, such as unsupervised part and saliency segmentation, recognition, and detection.

Inference-time computation is a powerful paradigm to enhance the performance of large language models (LLMs), with Best-of-N sampling being a widely used technique. However, this method is computationally expensive, requiring both (1) an external reward model and (2) the generation of multiple samples. In this work, we introduce a new generative self-evaluation scheme designed to adaptively reduce the number of generated samples while maintaining or even improving performance. We use a generative reward model formulation, allowing the LLM to predict mid-generation the probability that restarting the generation will yield a better response. These predictions are obtained without an external reward model and can be used to decide whether or not to generate more samples, prune unpromising samples early on, or to pick the best sample. This capability is very inexpensive as it involves generating a single predefined token. Trained using a dataset constructed with real unfiltered LMSYS user prompts, Llama 3.1 8B's win rate against GPT-4 on AlpacaEval increases from 21% to 34% with 16 samples and math performance on GSM8K improves from 84% to 91%. By sampling only when the LLM determines that it is beneficial to do so and adaptively adjusting temperature annealing, we demonstrate that 74% of the improvement from using 16 samples can be achieved with only 1.2 samples on average. We further demonstrate that 50-75% of samples can be pruned early in generation with minimal degradation in performance. Overall, our methods enable more efficient and scalable compute utilization during inference for LLMs.

Activation Patching is a method of directly computing causal attributions of behavior to model components. However, applying it exhaustively requires a sweep with cost scaling linearly in the number of model components, which can be prohibitively expensive for SoTA Large Language Models (LLMs). We investigate Attribution Patching (AtP), a fast gradient-based approximation to Activation Patching and find two classes of failure modes of AtP which lead to significant false negatives. We propose a variant of AtP called AtP*, with two changes to address these failure modes while retaining scalability. We present the first systematic study of AtP and alternative methods for faster activation patching and show that AtP significantly outperforms all other investigated methods, with AtP* providing further significant improvement. Finally, we provide a method to bound the probability of remaining false negatives of AtP* estimates.

We present a machine learning search for local, low-mass galaxies (z < 0.02 and 10^6 M_odot < M_* < 10^9 M_odot) using the combined photometric data from the DESI Imaging Legacy Surveys and the WISE survey. We introduce the spectrally confirmed training sample, discuss evaluation metrics, investigate the features, compare different machine learning algorithms, and find that a 7-class neural network classification model is highly effective in separating the signal (local, low-mass galaxies) from various contaminants, reaching a precision of 95% and a recall of 76%. The principal contaminants are nearby sub-L^* galaxies at 0.02 < z < 0.05 and nearby massive galaxies at 0.05 < z < 0.2. We find that the features encoding surface brightness information are essential to achieving a correct classification. Our final catalog, which we make available, consists of 112,859 local, low-mass galaxy candidates, where 36,408 have high probability (p_{rm signal} > 0.95), covering the entire Legacy Surveys DR9 footprint. Using DESI-EDR public spectra and data from the SAGA and ELVES surveys, we find that our model has a precision of sim 100%, 96%, and 97%, respectively, and a recall of sim 51%, 68% and 53%, respectively. The results of those independent spectral verification demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our machine learning classification model.

Generating diverse responses from large language models (LLMs) is crucial for applications such as planning/search and synthetic data generation, where diversity provides distinct answers across generations. Prior approaches rely on increasing temperature to increase diversity. However, contrary to popular belief, we show not only does this approach produce lower quality individual generations as temperature increases, but it depends on model's next-token probabilities being similar to the true distribution of answers. We propose , an alternative approach that uses the language model itself to partition the space into strata. At inference, a random stratum is selected and a sample drawn from within the strata. To measure diversity, we introduce CoverageQA, a dataset of underspecified questions with multiple equally plausible answers, and assess diversity by measuring KL Divergence between the output distribution and uniform distribution over valid ground truth answers. As computing probability per response/solution for proprietary models is infeasible, we measure recall on ground truth solutions. Our evaluation show using SimpleStrat achieves higher recall by 0.05 compared to GPT-4o and 0.36 average reduction in KL Divergence compared to Llama 3.

We present Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimation (NADE) models, which are neural network architectures applied to the problem of unsupervised distribution and density estimation. They leverage the probability product rule and a weight sharing scheme inspired from restricted Boltzmann machines, to yield an estimator that is both tractable and has good generalization performance. We discuss how they achieve competitive performance in modeling both binary and real-valued observations. We also present how deep NADE models can be trained to be agnostic to the ordering of input dimensions used by the autoregressive product rule decomposition. Finally, we also show how to exploit the topological structure of pixels in images using a deep convolutional architecture for NADE.

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions.

We model and study the processes of excitation, absorption, and transfer in various networks. The model consists of a harmonic oscillator representing a single-mode radiation field, a qubit acting as an antenna, a network through which the excitation propagates, and a qubit at the end serving as a sink. We investigate how off-resonant excitations can be optimally absorbed and transmitted through the network. Three strategies are considered: optimising network energies, adjusting the couplings between the radiation field, the antenna, and the network, or introducing and optimising driving fields at the start and end of the network. These strategies are tested on three different types of network with increasing complexity: nearest-neighbour and star configurations, and one associated with the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex. The results show that, among the various strategies, the introduction of driving fields is the most effective, leading to a significant increase in the probability of reaching the sink in a given time. This result remains stable across networks of varying dimensionalities and types, and the driving process requires only a few parameters to be effective.

Pretrained language models (PLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance in various natural language processing tasks: Unidirectional PLMs (e.g., GPT) are well known for their superior text generation capabilities; bidirectional PLMs (e.g., BERT) have been the prominent choice for natural language understanding (NLU) tasks. While both types of models have achieved promising few-shot learning performance, their potential for zero-shot learning has been underexplored. In this paper, we present a simple approach that uses both types of PLMs for fully zero-shot learning of NLU tasks without requiring any task-specific data: A unidirectional PLM generates class-conditioned texts guided by prompts, which are used as the training data for fine-tuning a bidirectional PLM. With quality training data selected based on the generation probability and regularization techniques (label smoothing and temporal ensembling) applied to the fine-tuning stage for better generalization and stability, our approach demonstrates strong performance across seven classification tasks of the GLUE benchmark (e.g., 72.3/73.8 on MNLI-m/mm and 92.8 on SST-2), significantly outperforming zero-shot prompting methods and achieving even comparable results to strong few-shot approaches using 32 training samples per class.

Blind Omnidirectional Image Quality Assessment (BOIQA) aims to objectively assess the human perceptual quality of omnidirectional images (ODIs) without relying on pristine-quality image information. It is becoming more significant with the increasing advancement of virtual reality (VR) technology. However, the quality assessment of ODIs is severely hampered by the fact that the existing BOIQA pipeline lacks the modeling of the observer's browsing process. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel multi-sequence network for BOIQA called Assessor360, which is derived from the realistic multi-assessor ODI quality assessment procedure. Specifically, we propose a generalized Recursive Probability Sampling (RPS) method for the BOIQA task, combining content and details information to generate multiple pseudo-viewport sequences from a given starting point. Additionally, we design a Multi-scale Feature Aggregation (MFA) module with a Distortion-aware Block (DAB) to fuse distorted and semantic features of each viewport. We also devise Temporal Modeling Module (TMM) to learn the viewport transition in the temporal domain. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that Assessor360 outperforms state-of-the-art methods on multiple OIQA datasets. The code and models are available at https://github.com/TianheWu/Assessor360.

Top-k decoding is a widely used method for sampling from LLMs: at each token, only the largest k next-token-probabilities are kept, and the next token is sampled after re-normalizing them to sum to unity. Top-k and other sampling methods are motivated by the intuition that true next-token distributions are sparse, and the noisy LLM probabilities need to be truncated. However, to our knowledge, a precise theoretical motivation for the use of top-k decoding is missing. In this work, we develop a theoretical framework that both explains and generalizes top-k decoding. We view decoding at a fixed token as the recovery of a sparse probability distribution. We consider Bregman decoders obtained by minimizing a separable Bregman divergence (for both the primal and dual cases) with a sparsity-inducing ell_0 regularization. Despite the combinatorial nature of the objective, we show how to optimize it efficiently for a large class of divergences. We show that the optimal decoding strategies are greedy, and further that the loss function is discretely convex in k, so that binary search provably and efficiently finds the optimal k. We show that top-k decoding arises as a special case for the KL divergence, and identify new decoding strategies that have distinct behaviors (e.g., non-linearly up-weighting larger probabilities after re-normalization).

Knowledge distillation (KD) is a widely used framework for training compact, task-specific models by leveraging the knowledge of teacher models. However, its application to active learning (AL), which aims to minimize annotation costs through iterative sample selection, remains underexplored. This gap stems from the fact that KD typically assumes access to sufficient labeled data, whereas AL operates in data-scarce scenarios where task-specific teacher models are often unavailable. In this paper, we introduce ActiveKD, a framework that integrates AL with KD by leveraging the zero- and few-shot capabilities of large vision-language models (VLMs). A key aspect of ActiveKD is the structured prediction bias of VLMs -- i.e., their predictions form clusters in the probability space. We regard this structure as an inductive bias of the teacher model, capturing generalizable output patterns beneficial to student learning. To exploit this bias, we propose Probabilistic CoreSet (PCoreSet), a selection strategy that maximizes coverage in the probability space rather than the feature space. PCoreSet strategically selects categorically diverse unlabeled samples, facilitating more efficient transfer of teacher knowledge under limited annotation budgets. Evaluations on 11 datasets show that PCoreSet consistently outperforms existing selection methods within the ActiveKD framework, advancing research at the intersection of AL and KD.

Large language models (LLMs) offer impressive performance but are impractical for resource-constrained deployment due to high latency and energy consumption. Knowledge distillation (KD) addresses this by transferring knowledge from a large teacher to a smaller student model. However, conventional KD, notably approaches like Forward KL (FKL) and Reverse KL (RKL), apply uniform divergence loss across the entire vocabulary, neglecting token-level prediction discrepancies. By investigating these representative divergences via gradient analysis, we reveal that FKL boosts underestimated tokens, while RKL suppresses overestimated ones, showing their complementary roles. Based on this observation, we propose Token-wise Distillation (ToDi), a novel method that adaptively combines FKL and RKL per token using a sigmoid-based weighting function derived from the teacher-student probability log-ratio. ToDi dynamically emphasizes the appropriate divergence for each token, enabling precise distribution alignment. We demonstrate that ToDi consistently outperforms recent distillation baselines using uniform or less granular strategies across instruction-following benchmarks. Extensive ablation studies and efficiency analysis further validate ToDi's effectiveness and practicality.

Recent advances in speech large language models (SLMs) have improved speech recognition and translation in general domains, but accurately generating domain-specific terms or neologisms remains challenging. To address this, we propose Attention2Probability: attention-driven terminology probability estimation for robust speech-to-text system, which is lightweight, flexible, and accurate. Attention2Probability converts cross-attention weights between speech and terminology into presence probabilities, and it further employs curriculum learning to enhance retrieval accuracy. Furthermore, to tackle the lack of data for speech-to-text tasks with terminology intervention, we create and release a new speech dataset with terminology to support future research in this area. Experimental results show that Attention2Probability significantly outperforms the VectorDB method on our test set. Specifically, its maximum recall rates reach 92.57% for Chinese and 86.83% for English. This high recall is achieved with a latency of only 8.71ms per query. Intervening in SLMs' recognition and translation tasks using Attention2Probability-retrieved terms improves terminology accuracy by 6-17%, while revealing that the current utilization of terminology by SLMs has limitations.

Reliable probability estimation is of crucial importance in many real-world applications where there is inherent (aleatoric) uncertainty. Probability-estimation models are trained on observed outcomes (e.g. whether it has rained or not, or whether a patient has died or not), because the ground-truth probabilities of the events of interest are typically unknown. The problem is therefore analogous to binary classification, with the difference that the objective is to estimate probabilities rather than predicting the specific outcome. This work investigates probability estimation from high-dimensional data using deep neural networks. There exist several methods to improve the probabilities generated by these models but they mostly focus on model (epistemic) uncertainty. For problems with inherent uncertainty, it is challenging to evaluate performance without access to ground-truth probabilities. To address this, we build a synthetic dataset to study and compare different computable metrics. We evaluate existing methods on the synthetic data as well as on three real-world probability estimation tasks, all of which involve inherent uncertainty: precipitation forecasting from radar images, predicting cancer patient survival from histopathology images, and predicting car crashes from dashcam videos. We also give a theoretical analysis of a model for high-dimensional probability estimation which reproduces several of the phenomena evinced in our experiments. Finally, we propose a new method for probability estimation using neural networks, which modifies the training process to promote output probabilities that are consistent with empirical probabilities computed from the data. The method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on the simulated as well as real-world data.

Modeling the distribution of natural images is a landmark problem in unsupervised learning. This task requires an image model that is at once expressive, tractable and scalable. We present a deep neural network that sequentially predicts the pixels in an image along the two spatial dimensions. Our method models the discrete probability of the raw pixel values and encodes the complete set of dependencies in the image. Architectural novelties include fast two-dimensional recurrent layers and an effective use of residual connections in deep recurrent networks. We achieve log-likelihood scores on natural images that are considerably better than the previous state of the art. Our main results also provide benchmarks on the diverse ImageNet dataset. Samples generated from the model appear crisp, varied and globally coherent.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate strong reasoning abilities with chain-of-thought prompting, but explicit reasoning introduces substantial computational overhead. Recent work on latent reasoning reduces this cost by reasoning in latent space without explicit supervision, but performance drops significantly. Our preliminary experiments suggest that this degradation stems from the unstructured latent space, which makes fitting latent tokens difficult. To address this, we restrict the latent space to the column space of the LLM vocabulary, treating latent reasoning as a superposition over vocabulary probabilities. Once latent reasoning concludes, it collapses into an eigenstate of explicit reasoning to yield the final answer. Based on this idea, we propose Latent-SFT, a two-stage learning framework. In the first stage, we design two specialized attention masks to guide the Latent Token Encoder in generating latent tokens, allowing the LLM to produce the correct answer conditioned on them. In the second stage, the Latent Token Encoder is discarded, and the LLM is directly trained to generate these latent tokens autonomously for latent reasoning, optimized with KL and CE losses. Latent-SFT sets a new state of the art on GSM8k, matching explicit SFT performance while cutting reasoning chains by up to 4 times and outperforming prior latent methods. On Math500 and AIME24, lexical probability-based latent reasoning also clearly surpasses hidden-state-based approaches. Our metrics of effective compression rate and effective global parallelism further show that latent reasoning is both the compression of a single path and the superposition of multiple paths.

We propose SAM-Road, an adaptation of the Segment Anything Model (SAM) for extracting large-scale, vectorized road network graphs from satellite imagery. To predict graph geometry, we formulate it as a dense semantic segmentation task, leveraging the inherent strengths of SAM. The image encoder of SAM is fine-tuned to produce probability masks for roads and intersections, from which the graph vertices are extracted via simple non-maximum suppression. To predict graph topology, we designed a lightweight transformer-based graph neural network, which leverages the SAM image embeddings to estimate the edge existence probabilities between vertices. Our approach directly predicts the graph vertices and edges for large regions without expensive and complex post-processing heuristics, and is capable of building complete road network graphs spanning multiple square kilometers in a matter of seconds. With its simple, straightforward, and minimalist design, SAM-Road achieves comparable accuracy with the state-of-the-art method RNGDet++, while being 40 times faster on the City-scale dataset. We thus demonstrate the power of a foundational vision model when applied to a graph learning task. The code is available at https://github.com/htcr/sam_road.

This paper proposes a simple self-supervised approach for learning a representation for visual correspondence from raw video. We cast correspondence as prediction of links in a space-time graph constructed from video. In this graph, the nodes are patches sampled from each frame, and nodes adjacent in time can share a directed edge. We learn a representation in which pairwise similarity defines transition probability of a random walk, so that long-range correspondence is computed as a walk along the graph. We optimize the representation to place high probability along paths of similarity. Targets for learning are formed without supervision, by cycle-consistency: the objective is to maximize the likelihood of returning to the initial node when walking along a graph constructed from a palindrome of frames. Thus, a single path-level constraint implicitly supervises chains of intermediate comparisons. When used as a similarity metric without adaptation, the learned representation outperforms the self-supervised state-of-the-art on label propagation tasks involving objects, semantic parts, and pose. Moreover, we demonstrate that a technique we call edge dropout, as well as self-supervised adaptation at test-time, further improve transfer for object-centric correspondence.

Referring expressions usually describe an object using properties of the object and relationships of the object with other objects. We propose a technique that integrates context between objects to understand referring expressions. Our approach uses an LSTM to learn the probability of a referring expression, with input features from a region and a context region. The context regions are discovered using multiple-instance learning (MIL) since annotations for context objects are generally not available for training. We utilize max-margin based MIL objective functions for training the LSTM. Experiments on the Google RefExp and UNC RefExp datasets show that modeling context between objects provides better performance than modeling only object properties. We also qualitatively show that our technique can ground a referring expression to its referred region along with the supporting context region.

This work is about estimating the hallucination rate for in-context learning (ICL) with Generative AI. In ICL, a conditional generative model (CGM) is prompted with a dataset and asked to make a prediction based on that dataset. The Bayesian interpretation of ICL assumes that the CGM is calculating a posterior predictive distribution over an unknown Bayesian model of a latent parameter and data. With this perspective, we define a hallucination as a generated prediction that has low-probability under the true latent parameter. We develop a new method that takes an ICL problem -- that is, a CGM, a dataset, and a prediction question -- and estimates the probability that a CGM will generate a hallucination. Our method only requires generating queries and responses from the model and evaluating its response log probability. We empirically evaluate our method on synthetic regression and natural language ICL tasks using large language models.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) is a simple and efficient framework that has attracted substantial attention. However, it often struggles to meet its primary objectives -- increasing the generation probability of chosen responses while reducing that of rejected responses -- due to the dominant influence of rejected responses on the loss function. This imbalance leads to suboptimal performance in promoting preferred responses. In this work, we systematically analyze the limitations of DPO and existing algorithms designed to achieve the objectives stated above. To address these limitations, we propose Bounded-DPO (BDPO), a novel method that bounds the influence of rejected responses while maintaining the original optimization structure of DPO. Through theoretical analysis and empirical evaluations, we demonstrate that BDPO achieves a balanced optimization of the chosen and rejected responses, outperforming existing algorithms.

Hierarchical classification offers an approach to incorporate the concept of mistake severity by leveraging a structured, labeled hierarchy. However, decoding in such settings frequently relies on heuristic decision rules, which may not align with task-specific evaluation metrics. In this work, we propose a framework for the optimal decoding of an output probability distribution with respect to a target metric. We derive optimal decision rules for increasingly complex prediction settings, providing universal algorithms when candidates are limited to the set of nodes. In the most general case of predicting a subset of nodes, we focus on rules dedicated to the hierarchical hF_{beta} scores, tailored to hierarchical settings. To demonstrate the practical utility of our approach, we conduct extensive empirical evaluations, showcasing the superiority of our proposed optimal strategies, particularly in underdetermined scenarios. These results highlight the potential of our methods to enhance the performance and reliability of hierarchical classifiers in real-world applications. The code is available at https://github.com/RomanPlaud/hierarchical_decision_rules

On-policy distillation (OPD) has become a core technique in the post-training of large language models, yet its training dynamics remain poorly understood. This paper provides a systematic investigation of OPD dynamics and mechanisms. We first identify that two conditions govern whether OPD succeeds or fails: (i) the student and teacher should share compatible thinking patterns; and (ii) even with consistent thinking patterns and higher scores, the teacher must offer genuinely new capabilities beyond what the student has seen during training. We validate these findings through weak-to-strong reverse distillation, showing that same-family 1.5B and 7B teachers are distributionally indistinguishable from the student's perspective. Probing into the token-level mechanism, we show that successful OPD is characterized by progressive alignment on high-probability tokens at student-visited states, a small shared token set that concentrates most of the probability mass (97%-99%). We further propose two practical strategies to recover failing OPD: off-policy cold start and teacher-aligned prompt selection. Finally, we show that OPD's apparent free lunch of dense token-level reward comes at a cost, raising the question of whether OPD can scale to long-horizon distillation.

Recently, Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) has exhibited significant success in novel view synthesis, surface reconstruction, etc. However, since no physical reflection is considered in its rendering pipeline, NeRF mistakes the reflection in the mirror as a separate virtual scene, leading to the inaccurate reconstruction of the mirror and multi-view inconsistent reflections in the mirror. In this paper, we present a novel neural rendering framework, named Mirror-NeRF, which is able to learn accurate geometry and reflection of the mirror and support various scene manipulation applications with mirrors, such as adding new objects or mirrors into the scene and synthesizing the reflections of these new objects in mirrors, controlling mirror roughness, etc. To achieve this goal, we propose a unified radiance field by introducing the reflection probability and tracing rays following the light transport model of Whitted Ray Tracing, and also develop several techniques to facilitate the learning process. Experiments and comparisons on both synthetic and real datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method. The code and supplementary material are available on the project webpage: https://zju3dv.github.io/Mirror-NeRF/.

A key component of building safe and reliable language models is enabling the models to appropriately refuse to follow certain instructions or answer certain questions. We may want models to output refusal messages for various categories of user queries, for example, ill-posed questions, instructions for committing illegal acts, or queries which require information past the model's knowledge horizon. Engineering models that refuse to answer such questions is complicated by the fact that an individual may want their model to exhibit varying levels of sensitivity for refusing queries of various categories, and different users may want different refusal rates. The current default approach involves training multiple models with varying proportions of refusal messages from each category to achieve the desired refusal rates, which is computationally expensive and may require training a new model to accommodate each user's desired preference over refusal rates. To address these challenges, we propose refusal tokens, one such token for each refusal category or a single refusal token, which are prepended to the model's responses during training. We then show how to increase or decrease the probability of generating the refusal token for each category during inference to steer the model's refusal behavior. Refusal tokens enable controlling a single model's refusal rates without the need of any further fine-tuning, but only by selectively intervening during generation.

Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR) has significantly advanced the reasoning capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, methods such as GRPO and DAPO suffer from substantial computational cost, since they rely on sampling many rollouts for each prompt. Moreover, in RLVR the relative advantage is often sparse: many samples become nearly all-correct or all-incorrect, yielding low within-group reward variance and thus weak learning signals. In this paper, we introduce arrol (Accelerating RLVR via online Rollout Pruning), an online rollout pruning method that prunes rollouts during generation while explicitly steering the surviving ones more correctness-balanced to enhance learning signals. Specifically, arrol trains a lightweight quality head on-the-fly to predict the success probability of partial rollouts and uses it to make early pruning decisions. The learned quality head can further weigh candidates to improve inference accuracy during test-time scaling. To improve efficiency, we present a system design that prunes rollouts inside the inference engine and re-batches the remaining ones for log-probability computation and policy updates. Across GRPO and DAPO on Qwen-3 and LLaMA-3.2 models (1B-8B), arrol improves average accuracy by +2.30 to +2.99 while achieving up to 1.7x training speedup, and yielding up to +8.33 additional gains in average accuracy in test-time scaling. The code is available at https://github.com/Hsu1023/ARRoL.

The fluency and factual knowledge of large language models (LLMs) heightens the need for corresponding systems to detect whether a piece of text is machine-written. For example, students may use LLMs to complete written assignments, leaving instructors unable to accurately assess student learning. In this paper, we first demonstrate that text sampled from an LLM tends to occupy negative curvature regions of the model's log probability function. Leveraging this observation, we then define a new curvature-based criterion for judging if a passage is generated from a given LLM. This approach, which we call DetectGPT, does not require training a separate classifier, collecting a dataset of real or generated passages, or explicitly watermarking generated text. It uses only log probabilities computed by the model of interest and random perturbations of the passage from another generic pre-trained language model (e.g, T5). We find DetectGPT is more discriminative than existing zero-shot methods for model sample detection, notably improving detection of fake news articles generated by 20B parameter GPT-NeoX from 0.81 AUROC for the strongest zero-shot baseline to 0.95 AUROC for DetectGPT. See https://ericmitchell.ai/detectgpt for code, data, and other project information.

It is typically understood that the training of modern neural networks is a process of fitting the probability distribution of desired output. However, recent paradoxical observations in a number of language generation tasks let one wonder if this canonical probability-based explanation can really account for the empirical success of deep learning. To resolve this issue, we propose an alternative utility-based explanation to the standard supervised learning procedure in deep learning. The basic idea is to interpret the learned neural network not as a probability model but as an ordinal utility function that encodes the preference revealed in training data. In this perspective, training of the neural network corresponds to a utility learning process. Specifically, we show that for all neural networks with softmax outputs, the SGD learning dynamic of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) can be seen as an iteration process that optimizes the neural network toward an optimal utility function. This utility-based interpretation can explain several otherwise-paradoxical observations about the neural networks thus trained. Moreover, our utility-based theory also entails an equation that can transform the learned utility values back to a new kind of probability estimation with which probability-compatible decision rules enjoy dramatic (double-digits) performance improvements. These evidences collectively reveal a phenomenon of utility-probability duality in terms of what modern neural networks are (truly) modeling: We thought they are one thing (probabilities), until the unexplainable showed up; changing mindset and treating them as another thing (utility values) largely reconcile the theory, despite remaining subtleties regarding its original (probabilistic) identity.

One of the most widely used methods to evaluate LLMs are Multiple Choice Question (MCQ) tests. MCQ benchmarks enable the testing of LLM knowledge on almost any topic at scale as the results can be processed automatically. To help the LLM answer, a few examples called few shots can be included in the prompt. Moreover, the LLM can be asked to answer the question directly with the selected option or to first provide the reasoning and then the selected answer, which is known as chain of thought. In addition to checking whether the selected answer is correct, the evaluation can look at the LLM-estimated probability of its response as an indication of the confidence of the LLM in the response. In this paper, we study how the LLM confidence in its answer depends on whether the model has been asked to answer directly or to provide the reasoning before answering. The results of the evaluation of questions on a wide range of topics in seven different models show that LLMs are more confident in their answers when they provide reasoning before the answer. This occurs regardless of whether the selected answer is correct. Our hypothesis is that this behavior is due to the reasoning that modifies the probability of the selected answer, as the LLM predicts the answer based on the input question and the reasoning that supports the selection made. Therefore, LLM estimated probabilities seem to have intrinsic limitations that should be understood in order to use them in evaluation procedures. Interestingly, the same behavior has been observed in humans, for whom explaining an answer increases confidence in its correctness.

Accurately quantifying a large language model's (LLM) predictive uncertainty is crucial for judging the reliability of its answers. While most existing research focuses on short, directly answerable questions with closed-form outputs (e.g., multiple-choice), involving intermediate reasoning steps in LLM responses is increasingly important. This added complexity complicates uncertainty quantification (UQ) because the probabilities assigned to answer tokens are conditioned on a vast space of preceding reasoning tokens. Direct marginalization is infeasible, and the dependency inflates probability estimates, causing overconfidence in UQ. To address this, we propose UQAC, an efficient method that narrows the reasoning space to a tractable size for marginalization. UQAC iteratively constructs an "attention chain" of tokens deemed "semantically crucial" to the final answer via a backtracking procedure. Starting from the answer tokens, it uses attention weights to identify the most influential predecessors, then iterates this process until reaching the input tokens. Similarity filtering and probability thresholding further refine the resulting chain, allowing us to approximate the marginal probabilities of the answer tokens, which serve as the LLM's confidence. We validate UQAC on multiple reasoning benchmarks with advanced open-source LLMs, demonstrating that it consistently delivers reliable UQ estimates with high computational efficiency.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants are increasingly used for aligning language models with human preferences. Although these methods are designed to teach a model to generate preferred responses more frequently relative to dispreferred responses, prior work has observed that the likelihood of preferred responses often decreases during training. The current work sheds light on the causes and implications of this counter-intuitive phenomenon, which we term likelihood displacement. We demonstrate that likelihood displacement can be catastrophic, shifting probability mass from preferred responses to responses with an opposite meaning. As a simple example, training a model to prefer No over Never can sharply increase the probability of Yes. Moreover, when aligning the model to refuse unsafe prompts, we show that such displacement can unintentionally lead to unalignment, by shifting probability mass from preferred refusal responses to harmful responses (e.g., reducing the refusal rate of Llama-3-8B-Instruct from 74.4% to 33.4%). We theoretically characterize that likelihood displacement is driven by preferences that induce similar embeddings, as measured by a centered hidden embedding similarity (CHES) score. Empirically, the CHES score enables identifying which training samples contribute most to likelihood displacement in a given dataset. Filtering out these samples effectively mitigated unintentional unalignment in our experiments. More broadly, our results highlight the importance of curating data with sufficiently distinct preferences, for which we believe the CHES score may prove valuable.

Autoregressive language models (ARMs) deliver strong likelihoods, but are inherently serial: they generate one token per forward pass, which limits throughput and inflates latency for long sequences. Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) parallelize across positions and thus appear promising for language generation, yet standard discrete diffusion typically needs hundreds to thousands of model evaluations to reach high quality, trading serial depth for iterative breadth. We introduce FS-DFM, Few-Step Discrete Flow-Matching. A discrete flow-matching model designed for speed without sacrificing quality. The core idea is simple: make the number of sampling steps an explicit parameter and train the model to be consistent across step budgets, so one big move lands where many small moves would. We pair this with a reliable update rule that moves probability in the right direction without overshooting, and with strong teacher guidance distilled from long-run trajectories. Together, these choices make few-step sampling stable, accurate, and easy to control. On language modeling benchmarks, FS-DFM with 8 sampling steps achieves perplexity parity with a 1,024-step discrete-flow baseline for generating 1,024 tokens using a similar-size model, delivering up to 128 times faster sampling and corresponding latency/throughput gains.

Pulmonary Hypertension (PH) is a severe disease characterized by an elevated pulmonary artery pressure. The gold standard for PH diagnosis is measurement of mean Pulmonary Artery Pressure (mPAP) during an invasive Right Heart Catheterization. In this paper, we investigate noninvasive approach to PH detection utilizing Magnetic Resonance Imaging, Computer Models and Machine Learning. We show using the ablation study, that physics-informed feature engineering based on models of blood circulation increases the performance of Gradient Boosting Decision Trees-based algorithms for classification of PH and regression of values of mPAP. We compare results of regression (with thresholding of estimated mPAP) and classification and demonstrate that metrics achieved in both experiments are comparable. The predicted mPAP values are more informative to the physicians than the probability of PH returned by classification models. They provide the intuitive explanation of the outcome of the machine learning model (clinicians are accustomed to the mPAP metric, contrary to the PH probability).

Programmable switches are driving a massive increase in fine-grained measurements. This puts significant pressure on telemetry collectors that have to process reports from many switches. Past research acknowledged this problem by either improving collectors' stack performance or by limiting the amount of data sent from switches. In this paper, we take a different and radical approach: switches are responsible for directly inserting queryable telemetry data into the collectors' memory, bypassing their CPU, and thereby improving their collection scalability. We propose to use a method we call direct telemetry access, where switches jointly write telemetry reports directly into the same collector's memory region, without coordination. Our solution, DART, is probabilistic, trading memory redundancy and query success probability for CPU resources at collectors. We prototype DART using commodity hardware such as P4 switches and RDMA NICs and show that we get high query success rates with a reasonable memory overhead. For example, we can collect INT path tracing information on a fat tree topology without a collector's CPU involvement while achieving 99.9\% query success probability and using just 300 bytes per flow.

Large language models (LLMs) sometimes fail to respond appropriately to deterministic tasks -- such as counting or forming acronyms -- because the implicit prior distribution they have learned over sequences of tokens influences their responses. In this work, we show that, in at least some cases, LLMs actually compute the information needed to perform these tasks correctly, and we identify some interventions that can allow them to access this information to improve their performance. First, we show that simply prompting the language model to not rely on its prior knowledge leads to dramatic improvements in prior-dominated tasks. We then use mechanistic interpretability techniques to localize the prior within the LLM and manipulate the extent to which that prior influences its responses. Specifically, we show that it is possible to identify layers of the underlying neural network that correlate with the prior probability of a response and that lightweight finetuning of these layers with basic prompts on prior-dominated tasks achieves high performance on held-out answers. These results suggest that the information required to produce a correct response is contained within the representations of the problems formed by the models. Furthermore, we show that this finetuning is significantly more effective for prior-dominated tasks, and that the error after finetuning is no longer correlated with the prior. Our results suggest that it may be possible to define effective methods for manipulating the extent to which LLMs rely upon their priors in solving problems, potentially increasing their performance in settings where LLMs hallucinate for reasons related to the prior probability of token sequences.

Accurate subsurface scattering solutions require the integration of optical material properties along many complicated light paths. We present a method that learns a simple geometric approximation of random paths in a homogeneous volume of translucent material. The generated representation allows determining the absorption along the path as well as a direct lighting contribution, which is representative of all scattering events along the path. A sequence of conditional variational auto-encoders (CVAEs) is trained to model the statistical distribution of the photon paths inside a spherical region in presence of multiple scattering events. A first CVAE learns to sample the number of scattering events, occurring on a ray path inside the sphere, which effectively determines the probability of the ray being absorbed. Conditioned on this, a second model predicts the exit position and direction of the light particle. Finally, a third model generates a representative sample of photon position and direction along the path, which is used to approximate the contribution of direct illumination due to in-scattering. To accelerate the tracing of the light path through the volumetric medium toward the solid boundary, we employ a sphere-tracing strategy that considers the light absorption and is able to perform statistically accurate next-event estimation. We demonstrate efficient learning using shallow networks of only three layers and no more than 16 nodes. In combination with a GPU shader that evaluates the CVAEs' predictions, performance gains can be demonstrated for a variety of different scenarios. A quality evaluation analyzes the approximation error that is introduced by the data-driven scattering simulation and sheds light on the major sources of error in the accelerated path tracing process.

Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has become the predominant approach for language model (LM) alignment. At its core, RLHF uses a margin-based loss for preference optimization, specifying ideal LM behavior only by the difference between preferred and dispreferred responses. In this paper, we identify a common pitfall of margin-based methods -- the under-specification of ideal LM behavior on preferred and dispreferred responses individually, which leads to two unintended consequences as the margin increases: (1) The probability of dispreferred (e.g., unsafe) responses may increase, resulting in potential safety alignment failures. (2) The probability of preferred responses may decrease, even when those responses are ideal. We demystify the reasons behind these problematic behaviors: margin-based losses couple the change in the preferred probability to the gradient of the dispreferred one, and vice versa, often preventing the preferred probability from increasing while the dispreferred one decreases, and thus causing a synchronized increase or decrease in both probabilities. We term this effect, inherent in margin-based objectives, gradient entanglement. Formally, we derive conditions for general margin-based alignment objectives under which gradient entanglement becomes concerning: the inner product of the gradients of preferred and dispreferred log-probabilities is large relative to the individual gradient norms. We theoretically investigate why such inner products can be large when aligning language models and empirically validate our findings. Empirical implications of our framework extend to explaining important differences in the training dynamics of various preference optimization algorithms, and suggesting potential algorithm designs to mitigate the under-specification issue of margin-based methods and thereby improving language model alignment.

Generative modeling of peptide sequences requires navigating a discrete and highly constrained space in which many intermediate states are chemically implausible or unstable. Existing discrete diffusion and flow-based methods rely on reversing fixed corruption processes or following prescribed probability paths, which can force generation through low-likelihood regions and require countless sampling steps. We introduce Minimal-action discrete Schrödinger Bridge Matching (MadSBM), a rate-based generative framework for peptide design that formulates generation as a controlled continuous-time Markov process on the amino-acid edit graph. To yield probability trajectories that remain near high-likelihood sequence neighborhoods throughout generation, MadSBM 1) defines generation relative to a biologically informed reference process derived from pre-trained protein language model logits and 2) learns a time-dependent control field that biases transition rates to produce low-action transport paths from a masked prior to the data distribution. We finally introduce guidance to the MadSBM sampling procedure towards a specific functional objective, expanding the design space of therapeutic peptides; to our knowledge, this represents the first-ever application of discrete classifier guidance to Schrödinger bridge-based generative models.

Modeling the probability distribution of rows in tabular data and generating realistic synthetic data is a non-trivial task. Tabular data usually contains a mix of discrete and continuous columns. Continuous columns may have multiple modes whereas discrete columns are sometimes imbalanced making the modeling difficult. Existing statistical and deep neural network models fail to properly model this type of data. We design TGAN, which uses a conditional generative adversarial network to address these challenges. To aid in a fair and thorough comparison, we design a benchmark with 7 simulated and 8 real datasets and several Bayesian network baselines. TGAN outperforms Bayesian methods on most of the real datasets whereas other deep learning methods could not.

Images produced by diffusion models are increasingly popular in digital artwork and visual marketing. However, such generated images might replicate content from existing ones and pose the challenge of content originality. Existing Image Copy Detection (ICD) models, though accurate in detecting hand-crafted replicas, overlook the challenge from diffusion models. This motivates us to introduce ICDiff, the first ICD specialized for diffusion models. To this end, we construct a Diffusion-Replication (D-Rep) dataset and correspondingly propose a novel deep embedding method. D-Rep uses a state-of-the-art diffusion model (Stable Diffusion V1.5) to generate 40, 000 image-replica pairs, which are manually annotated into 6 replication levels ranging from 0 (no replication) to 5 (total replication). Our method, PDF-Embedding, transforms the replication level of each image-replica pair into a probability density function (PDF) as the supervision signal. The intuition is that the probability of neighboring replication levels should be continuous and smooth. Experimental results show that PDF-Embedding surpasses protocol-driven methods and non-PDF choices on the D-Rep test set. Moreover, by utilizing PDF-Embedding, we find that the replication ratios of well-known diffusion models against an open-source gallery range from 10% to 20%.

In large language models like the Generative Pre-trained Transformer, the Mixture of Experts paradigm has emerged as a powerful technique for enhancing model expressiveness and accuracy. However, deploying GPT MoE models for parallel inference on distributed systems presents significant challenges, primarily due to the extensive Alltoall communication required for expert routing and aggregation. This communication bottleneck exacerbates the already complex computational landscape, hindering the efficient utilization of high-performance computing resources. In this paper, we propose a lightweight optimization technique called ExFlow, to largely accelerate the inference of these MoE models. We take a new perspective on alleviating the communication overhead by exploiting the inter-layer expert affinity. Unlike previous methods, our solution can be directly applied to pre-trained MoE models without any fine-tuning or accuracy degradation. By proposing a context-coherent expert parallelism on distributed systems, our design only uses one Alltoall communication to deliver the same functionality while previous methods all require two Alltoalls. By carefully examining the conditional probability in tokens' routing across multiple layers, we proved that pre-trained GPT MoE models implicitly exhibit a strong inter-layer expert affinity. We then design an efficient integer programming model to capture such features and show that by properly placing the experts on corresponding GPUs, we can reduce up to 67% cross-GPU routing latency. Our solution beats the cutting-edge MoE implementations with experts from 8 to 64, with up to 2.2x improvement in inference throughput. We further provide a detailed study of how the model implicitly acquires this expert affinity at the very early training stage and how this affinity evolves and stabilizes during training.

SoftMax is a ubiquitous ingredient of modern machine learning algorithms. It maps an input vector onto a probability simplex and reweights the input by concentrating the probability mass at large entries. Yet, as a smooth approximation to the Argmax function, a significant amount of probability mass is distributed to other, residual entries, leading to poor interpretability and noise. Although sparsity can be achieved by a family of SoftMax variants, they often require an alternative loss function and do not preserve multi-modality. We show that this trade-off between multi-modality and sparsity limits the expressivity of SoftMax as well as its variants. We provide a solution to this tension between objectives by proposing a piece-wise differentiable function, termed MultiMax, which adaptively modulates the output distribution according to input entry range. Through comprehensive analysis and evaluation, we show that MultiMax successfully produces a distribution that supresses irrelevant entries while preserving multimodality, with benefits in image classification, language modeling and machine translation. The code is available at https://github.com/ZhouYuxuanYX/MultiMax.

The choice of batch sizes in stochastic gradient optimizers is critical for model training. However, the practice of varying batch sizes throughout the training process is less explored compared to other hyperparameters. We investigate adaptive batch size strategies derived from adaptive sampling methods, traditionally applied only in stochastic gradient descent. Given the significant interplay between learning rates and batch sizes, and considering the prevalence of adaptive gradient methods in deep learning, we emphasize the need for adaptive batch size strategies in these contexts. We introduce AdAdaGrad and its scalar variant AdAdaGradNorm, which incrementally increase batch sizes during training, while model updates are performed using AdaGrad and AdaGradNorm. We prove that AdaGradNorm converges with high probability at a rate of O(1/K) for finding a first-order stationary point of smooth nonconvex functions within K iterations. AdaGrad also demonstrates similar convergence properties when integrated with a novel coordinate-wise variant of our adaptive batch size strategies. Our theoretical claims are supported by numerical experiments on various image classification tasks, highlighting the enhanced adaptability of progressive batching protocols in deep learning and the potential of such adaptive batch size strategies with adaptive gradient optimizers in large-scale model training.

Internal modelling of the world -- predicting transitions between previous states X and next states Y under actions Z -- is essential to reasoning and planning for LLMs and VLMs. Learning such models typically requires costly action-labelled trajectories. We propose SWIRL, a self-improvement framework that learns from state-only sequences by treating actions as a latent variable and alternating between Forward World Modelling (FWM) P_θ(Y|X,Z) and an Inverse Dynamics Modelling (IDM) Q_φ(Z|X,Y). SWIRL iterates two phases: (1) Variational Information Maximisation, which updates the FWM to generate next states that maximise conditional mutual information with latent actions given prior states, encouraging identifiable consistency; and (2) ELBO Maximisation, which updates the IDM to explain observed transitions, effectively performing coordinate ascent. Both models are trained with reinforcement learning (specifically, GRPO) with the opposite frozen model's log-probability as a reward signal. We provide theoretical learnability guarantees for both updates, and evaluate SWIRL on LLMs and VLMs across multiple environments: single-turn and multi-turn open-world visual dynamics and synthetic textual environments for physics, web, and tool calling. SWIRL achieves gains of 16% on AURORABench, 28% on ByteMorph, 16% on WorldPredictionBench, and 14% on StableToolBench.

In RL, given a prompt, we sample a group of completions from a model and score them. Two questions follow: which completions should gain probability mass, and how should the parameters move to realize that change? Standard policy-gradient methods answer both at once, so the update can overshoot or undershoot depending on the learning rate, clipping, and other optimizer choices. We introduce Target Policy Optimization (TPO), which separates the two questions. Given scored completions, TPO constructs a target distribution q_i propto p_i^{,old} exp(u_i) and fits the policy to it by cross-entropy. The loss gradient on sampled-completion logits is p^θ- q, which vanishes once the policy matches the target. On tabular bandits, transformer sequence tasks, and billion-parameter LLM RLVR, TPO matches PG, PPO, GRPO, and DG on easy tasks and substantially outperforms them under sparse reward. Code is available at https://github.com/JeanKaddour/tpo.

Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) and its variants have become increasingly popular for aligning language models with human preferences. These methods aim to teach models to better distinguish between chosen (or preferred) and rejected (or dispreferred) responses. However, prior research has identified that the probability of chosen responses often decreases during training, and this phenomenon is known as likelihood displacement. To tackle this challenge, in this work we introduce \method to controllably shift the distribution of the chosen probability. Then, we show that \method exhibits a fundamental trade-off between improving the chosen probability and sacrificing the reward margin, as supported by both theoretical analysis and experimental validation. Furthermore, we demonstrate the superiority of \method over DPO on downstream tasks such as MT-Bench and a designed win rate experiment. We believe this study shows that the likelihood displacement issue of DPO can be effectively mitigated with a simple, theoretically grounded solution. Our code is available at https://github.com/Meaquadddd/DPO-Shift.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly embedded in autonomous agents that engage, converse, and co-evolve in online social platforms. While prior work has documented the generation of toxic content by LLMs, far less is known about how exposure to harmful content shapes agent behavior over time, particularly in environments composed entirely of interacting AI agents. In this work, we study toxicity adoption of LLM-driven agents on Chirper.ai, a fully AI-driven social platform. Specifically, we model interactions in terms of stimuli (posts) and responses (comments). We conduct a large-scale empirical analysis of agent behavior, examining how toxic responses relate to toxic stimuli, how repeated exposure to toxicity affects the likelihood of toxic responses, and whether toxic behavior can be predicted from exposure alone. Our findings show that toxic responses are more likely following toxic stimuli, and, at the same time, cumulative toxic exposure (repeated over time) significantly increases the probability of toxic responding. We further introduce two influence metrics, revealing a strong negative correlation between induced and spontaneous toxicity. Finally, we show that the number of toxic stimuli alone enables accurate prediction of whether an agent will eventually produce toxic content. These results highlight exposure as a critical risk factor in the deployment of LLM agents, particularly as such agents operate in online environments where they may engage not only with other AI chatbots, but also with human counterparts. This could trigger unwanted and pernicious phenomena, such as hate-speech propagation and cyberbullying. In an effort to reduce such risks, monitoring exposure to toxic content may provide a lightweight yet effective mechanism for auditing and mitigating harmful behavior in the wild.

In this paper, by introducing Generalized Bernstein condition, we propose the first Obig(sqrt{p}{nepsilon}big) high probability excess population risk bound for differentially private algorithms under the assumptions G-Lipschitz, L-smooth, and Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz condition, based on gradient perturbation method. If we replace the properties G-Lipschitz and L-smooth by alpha-H{\"o}lder smoothness (which can be used in non-smooth setting), the high probability bound comes to Obig(n^{-alpha{1+2alpha}}big) w.r.t n, which cannot achieve Oleft(1/nright) when alphain(0,1]. To solve this problem, we propose a variant of gradient perturbation method, max{1,g-Normalized Gradient Perturbation} (m-NGP). We further show that by normalization, the high probability excess population risk bound under assumptions alpha-H{\"o}lder smooth and Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz condition can achieve Obig(sqrt{p}{nepsilon}big), which is the first Oleft(1/nright) high probability excess population risk bound w.r.t n for differentially private algorithms under non-smooth conditions. Moreover, we evaluate the performance of the new proposed algorithm m-NGP, the experimental results show that m-NGP improves the performance of the differentially private model over real datasets. It demonstrates that m-NGP improves the utility bound and the accuracy of the DP model on real datasets simultaneously.