Daily Papers

Given sparse observations of buoy velocities, oceanographers are interested in reconstructing ocean currents away from the buoys and identifying divergences in a current vector field. As a first and modular step, we focus on the time-stationary case - for instance, by restricting to short time periods. Since we expect current velocity to be a continuous but highly non-linear function of spatial location, Gaussian processes (GPs) offer an attractive model. But we show that applying a GP with a standard stationary kernel directly to buoy data can struggle at both current reconstruction and divergence identification, due to some physically unrealistic prior assumptions. To better reflect known physical properties of currents, we propose to instead put a standard stationary kernel on the divergence and curl-free components of a vector field obtained through a Helmholtz decomposition. We show that, because this decomposition relates to the original vector field just via mixed partial derivatives, we can still perform inference given the original data with only a small constant multiple of additional computational expense. We illustrate the benefits of our method with theory and experiments on synthetic and real ocean data.

Accurate ocean forecasting is crucial in different areas ranging from science to decision making. Recent advancements in data-driven models have shown significant promise, particularly in weather forecasting community, but yet no data-driven approaches have matched the accuracy and the scalability of traditional global ocean forecasting systems that rely on physics-driven numerical models and can be very computationally expensive, depending on their spatial resolution or complexity. Here, we introduce GLONET, a global ocean neural network-based forecasting system, developed by Mercator Ocean International. GLONET is trained on the global Mercator Ocean physical reanalysis GLORYS12 to integrate physics-based principles through neural operators and networks, which dynamically capture local-global interactions within a unified, scalable framework, ensuring high small-scale accuracy and efficient dynamics. GLONET's performance is assessed and benchmarked against two other forecasting systems: the global Mercator Ocean analysis and forecasting 1/12 high-resolution physical system GLO12 and a recent neural-based system also trained from GLORYS12. A series of comprehensive validation metrics is proposed, specifically tailored for neural network-based ocean forecasting systems, which extend beyond traditional point-wise error assessments that can introduce bias towards neural networks optimized primarily to minimize such metrics. The preliminary evaluation of GLONET shows promising results, for temperature, sea surface height, salinity and ocean currents. GLONET's experimental daily forecast are accessible through the European Digital Twin Ocean platform EDITO.

We introduce OceanGym, the first comprehensive benchmark for ocean underwater embodied agents, designed to advance AI in one of the most demanding real-world environments. Unlike terrestrial or aerial domains, underwater settings present extreme perceptual and decision-making challenges, including low visibility, dynamic ocean currents, making effective agent deployment exceptionally difficult. OceanGym encompasses eight realistic task domains and a unified agent framework driven by Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs), which integrates perception, memory, and sequential decision-making. Agents are required to comprehend optical and sonar data, autonomously explore complex environments, and accomplish long-horizon objectives under these harsh conditions. Extensive experiments reveal substantial gaps between state-of-the-art MLLM-driven agents and human experts, highlighting the persistent difficulty of perception, planning, and adaptability in ocean underwater environments. By providing a high-fidelity, rigorously designed platform, OceanGym establishes a testbed for developing robust embodied AI and transferring these capabilities to real-world autonomous ocean underwater vehicles, marking a decisive step toward intelligent agents capable of operating in one of Earth's last unexplored frontiers. The code and data are available at https://github.com/OceanGPT/OceanGym.

While complex simulations of physical systems have been widely used in engineering and scientific computing, lowering their often prohibitive computational requirements has only recently been tackled by deep learning approaches. In this paper, we present GraphSplineNets, a novel deep-learning method to speed up the forecasting of physical systems by reducing the grid size and number of iteration steps of deep surrogate models. Our method uses two differentiable orthogonal spline collocation methods to efficiently predict response at any location in time and space. Additionally, we introduce an adaptive collocation strategy in space to prioritize sampling from the most important regions. GraphSplineNets improve the accuracy-speedup tradeoff in forecasting various dynamical systems with increasing complexity, including the heat equation, damped wave propagation, Navier-Stokes equations, and real-world ocean currents in both regular and irregular domains.

Forecasting sea surface currents is essential for applications such as maritime navigation, environmental monitoring, and climate analysis, particularly in regions like the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea. This paper introduces SEA-ViT, an advanced deep learning model that integrates Vision Transformer (ViT) with bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) to capture spatio-temporal covariance for predicting sea surface currents (U, V) using high-frequency radar (HF) data. The name SEA-ViT is derived from ``Sea Surface Currents Forecasting using Vision Transformer,'' highlighting the model's emphasis on ocean dynamics and its use of the ViT architecture to enhance forecasting capabilities. SEA-ViT is designed to unravel complex dependencies by leveraging a rich dataset spanning over 30 years and incorporating ENSO indices (El Niño, La Niña, and neutral phases) to address the intricate relationship between geographic coordinates and climatic variations. This development enhances the predictive capabilities for sea surface currents, supporting the efforts of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency (GISTDA) in Thailand's maritime regions. The code and pretrained models are available at https://github.com/kaopanboonyuen/gistda-ai-sea-surface-currents.

Rip currents are strong, localized and narrow currents of water that flow outwards into the sea, causing numerous beach-related injuries and fatalities worldwide. Accurate identification of rip currents remains challenging due to their amorphous nature and the lack of annotated data, which often requires expert knowledge. To address these issues, we present RipVIS, a large-scale video instance segmentation benchmark explicitly designed for rip current segmentation. RipVIS is an order of magnitude larger than previous datasets, featuring 184 videos (212,328 frames), of which 150 videos (163,528 frames) are with rip currents, collected from various sources, including drones, mobile phones, and fixed beach cameras. Our dataset encompasses diverse visual contexts, such as wave-breaking patterns, sediment flows, and water color variations, across multiple global locations, including USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Portugal, Italy, Greece, Romania, Sri Lanka, Australia and New Zealand. Most videos are annotated at 5 FPS to ensure accuracy in dynamic scenarios, supplemented by an additional 34 videos (48,800 frames) without rip currents. We conduct comprehensive experiments with Mask R-CNN, Cascade Mask R-CNN, SparseInst and YOLO11, fine-tuning these models for the task of rip current segmentation. Results are reported in terms of multiple metrics, with a particular focus on the F_2 score to prioritize recall and reduce false negatives. To enhance segmentation performance, we introduce a novel post-processing step based on Temporal Confidence Aggregation (TCA). RipVIS aims to set a new standard for rip current segmentation, contributing towards safer beach environments. We offer a benchmark website to share data, models, and results with the research community, encouraging ongoing collaboration and future contributions, at https://ripvis.ai.

Data-driven, deep-learning modeling frameworks have been recently developed for forecasting time series data. Such machine learning models may be useful in multiple domains including the atmospheric and oceanic ones, and in general, the larger fluids community. The present work investigates the possible effectiveness of such deep neural operator models for reproducing and predicting classic fluid flows and simulations of realistic ocean dynamics. We first briefly evaluate the capabilities of such deep neural operator models when trained on a simulated two-dimensional fluid flow past a cylinder. We then investigate their application to forecasting ocean surface circulation in the Middle Atlantic Bight and Massachusetts Bay, learning from high-resolution data-assimilative simulations employed for real sea experiments. We confirm that trained deep neural operator models are capable of predicting idealized periodic eddy shedding. For realistic ocean surface flows and our preliminary study, they can predict several of the features and show some skill, providing potential for future research and applications.

Rip currents are the leading cause of fatal accidents and injuries on many beaches worldwide, emphasizing the importance of automatically detecting these hazardous surface water currents. In this paper, we address a novel task: rip current instance segmentation. We introduce a comprehensive dataset containing 2,466 images with newly created polygonal annotations for instance segmentation, used for training and validation. Additionally, we present a novel dataset comprising 17 drone videos (comprising about 24K frames) captured at 30 FPS, annotated with both polygons for instance segmentation and bounding boxes for object detection, employed for testing purposes. We train various versions of YOLOv8 for instance segmentation on static images and assess their performance on the test dataset (videos). The best results were achieved by the YOLOv8-nano model (runnable on a portable device), with an mAP50 of 88.94% on the validation dataset and 81.21% macro average on the test dataset. The results provide a baseline for future research in rip current segmentation. Our work contributes to the existing literature by introducing a detailed, annotated dataset, and training a deep learning model for instance segmentation of rip currents. The code, training details and the annotated dataset are made publicly available at https://github.com/Irikos/rip_currents.

The oceans are a source of an impressive mixture of complex data that could be used to uncover relationships yet to be discovered. Such data comes from the oceans and their surface, such as Automatic Identification System (AIS) messages used for tracking vessels' trajectories. AIS messages are transmitted over radio or satellite at ideally periodic time intervals but vary irregularly over time. As such, this paper aims to model the AIS message transmission behavior through neural networks for forecasting upcoming AIS messages' content from multiple vessels, particularly in a simultaneous approach despite messages' temporal irregularities as outliers. We present a set of experiments comprising multiple algorithms for forecasting tasks with horizon sizes of varying lengths. Deep learning models (e.g., neural networks) revealed themselves to adequately preserve vessels' spatial awareness regardless of temporal irregularity. We show how convolutional layers, feed-forward networks, and recurrent neural networks can improve such tasks by working together. Experimenting with short, medium, and large-sized sequences of messages, our model achieved 36/37/38% of the Relative Percentage Difference - the lower, the better, whereas we observed 92/45/96% on the Elman's RNN, 51/52/40% on the GRU, and 129/98/61% on the LSTM. These results support our model as a driver for improving the prediction of vessel routes when analyzing multiple vessels of diverging types simultaneously under temporally noise data.

Using solar-cycle long helioseismic measurements of meridional and zonal flows in the near-surface shear layer (NSSL) of the Sun, we study their spatio-temporal variations and connections to active regions. We find that near-surface inflows towards active latitudes are part of a local circulation with an outflow away from them at depths around 0.97 R, which is also the location where the deviations in the radial gradient of rotation change sign. These results, together with opposite-signed changes over latitude and depth in the above quantities observed during the solar minimum period, point to the action of the Coriolis force on large-scale flows as the primary cause of changes in the rotation gradient within the NSSL. We also find that such Coriolis force-mediated changes in near-surface flows towards active latitudes only marginally change the amplitude of zonal flow and hence are not likely to be its driving force. Our measurements typically achieve a high signal-to-noise ratio (>5σ) for near-surface flows but can drop to 3σ near the base (0.95 R) of the NSSL. Close agreements between the depth profiles of changes in rotation gradient and in meridional flows measured from quite different global and local helioseismic techniques, respectively, show that the results are not dependent on the analysis techniques.

We present a new approach to forecasting North Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) by recognizing that interannual variability primarily reflects amplitude changes in four dominant seasonal cycles. Our multivariate linear model simultaneously captures these amplitude-modulated seasonal cycles along with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), which naturally emerges as an intrinsic feature of the system rather than a separate phenomenon. Using sixteen-dimensional regression based on four spatially distributed time series per variable, the model delivers unprecedented forecast accuracy for both interannual amplitude modulations and PDO evolution, maintaining skill beyond 36 months -- a substantial improvement over current operational and research forecasts, including machine learning methods. Predictions initialized in 2024 project that the PDO will remain in its negative phase through late 2026, implying reduced likelihood of severe marine heatwaves in the eastern North Pacific during this period. These findings have direct implications for regional climate impacts, including storm tracks, precipitation patterns, and marine ecosystem health. By treating seasonal and interannual variability as coupled rather than independent processes, this framework advances our understanding of North Pacific climate dynamics and provides a powerful tool for stakeholders managing climate-sensitive resources and planning adaptation strategies in regions strongly influenced by North Pacific conditions.

Accurate Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) ocean simulation is critically important for marine research, yet remains challenging due to its substantial thermal inertia and extended time delay. Machine learning (ML)-based models have demonstrated significant advancements in simulation accuracy and computational efficiency compared to traditional numerical methods. Nevertheless, a significant limitation of current ML models for S2S ocean simulation is their inadequate incorporation of physical consistency and the slow-changing properties of the ocean system. In this work, we propose a neural ocean model (NeuralOM) for S2S ocean simulation with a multi-scale interactive graph neural network to emulate diverse physical phenomena associated with ocean systems effectively. Specifically, we propose a multi-stage framework tailored to model the ocean's slowly changing nature. Additionally, we introduce a multi-scale interactive messaging module to capture complex dynamical behaviors, such as gradient changes and multiplicative coupling relationships inherent in ocean dynamics. Extensive experimental evaluations confirm that our proposed NeuralOM outperforms state-of-the-art models in S2S and extreme event simulation. The codes are available at https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/NeuralOM.

We propose a self-consistent explanation of Rieger-type periodicities, the Schwabe cycle, and the Suess-de Vries cycle of the solar dynamo in terms of resonances of various wave phenomena with gravitational forces exerted by the orbiting planets. Starting on the high-frequency side, we show that the two-planet spring tides of Venus, Earth and Jupiter are able to excite magneto-Rossby waves which can be linked with typical Rieger-type periods. We argue then that the 11.07-year beat period of those magneto-Rossby waves synchronizes an underlying conventional alpha-Omega-dynamo, by periodically changing either the field storage capacity in the tachocline or some portion of the alpha-effect therein. We also strengthen the argument that the Suess-de Vries cycle appears as an 193-year beat period between the 22.14-year Hale cycle and a spin-orbit coupling effect related with the 19.86-year rosette-like motion of the Sun around the barycenter.

Blocking events are an important cause of extreme weather, especially long-lasting blocking events that trap weather systems in place. The duration of blocking events is, however, underestimated in climate models. Explainable Artificial Intelligence are a class of data analysis methods that can help identify physical causes of prolonged blocking events and diagnose model deficiencies. We demonstrate this approach on an idealized quasigeostrophic model developed by Marshall and Molteni (1993). We train a convolutional neural network (CNN), and subsequently, build a sparse predictive model for the persistence of Atlantic blocking, conditioned on an initial high-pressure anomaly. Shapley Additive ExPlanation (SHAP) analysis reveals that high-pressure anomalies in the American Southeast and North Atlantic, separated by a trough over Atlantic Canada, contribute significantly to prediction of sustained blocking events in the Atlantic region. This agrees with previous work that identified precursors in the same regions via wave train analysis. When we apply the same CNN to blockings in the ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis, there is insufficient data to accurately predict persistent blocks. We partially overcome this limitation by pre-training the CNN on the plentiful data of the Marshall-Molteni model, and then using Transfer Learning to achieve better predictions than direct training. SHAP analysis before and after transfer learning allows a comparison between the predictive features in the reanalysis and the quasigeostrophic model, quantifying dynamical biases in the idealized model. This work demonstrates the potential for machine learning methods to extract meaningful precursors of extreme weather events and achieve better prediction using limited observational data.

AI emulators for forecasting have emerged as powerful tools that can outperform conventional numerical predictions. The next frontier is to build emulators for long-term climate projections with robust skill across a wide range of spatiotemporal scales, a particularly important goal for the ocean. Our work builds a skillful global emulator of the ocean component of a state-of-the-art climate model. We emulate key ocean variables, sea surface height, horizontal velocities, temperature, and salinity, across their full depth. We use a modified ConvNeXt UNet architecture trained on multidepth levels of ocean data. We show that the ocean emulator - Samudra - which exhibits no drift relative to the truth, can reproduce the depth structure of ocean variables and their interannual variability. Samudra is stable for centuries and 150 times faster than the original ocean model. Samudra struggles to capture the correct magnitude of the forcing trends and simultaneously remains stable, requiring further work.

While diffusion models can successfully generate data and make predictions, they are predominantly designed for static images. We propose an approach for efficiently training diffusion models for probabilistic spatiotemporal forecasting, where generating stable and accurate rollout forecasts remains challenging, Our method, DYffusion, leverages the temporal dynamics in the data, directly coupling it with the diffusion steps in the model. We train a stochastic, time-conditioned interpolator and a forecaster network that mimic the forward and reverse processes of standard diffusion models, respectively. DYffusion naturally facilitates multi-step and long-range forecasting, allowing for highly flexible, continuous-time sampling trajectories and the ability to trade-off performance with accelerated sampling at inference time. In addition, the dynamics-informed diffusion process in DYffusion imposes a strong inductive bias and significantly improves computational efficiency compared to traditional Gaussian noise-based diffusion models. Our approach performs competitively on probabilistic forecasting of complex dynamics in sea surface temperatures, Navier-Stokes flows, and spring mesh systems.

The Sun's outer atmosphere, the corona, is maintained at mega-Kelvin temperatures and fills the heliosphere with a supersonic outflowing wind. The dissipation of magnetic waves and direct electric currents are likely to be the most significant processes for heating the corona, but a lively debate exists on their relative roles. Here, we suggest that the two are often intrinsically linked, since magnetic waves may trigger current dissipation, and impulsive reconnection can launch magnetic waves. We present a study of the first of these processes by using a 2D physics-based numerical simulation using the Adaptive Mesh Refined (AMR) Versatile Advection Code (VAC). Magnetic waves such as fast magnetoacoustic waves are often observed to propagate in the large-scale corona and interact with local magnetic structures. The present numerical simulations show how the propagation of magnetic disturbances towards a null point or separator can lead to the accumulation of the electric currents. Lorentz forces can laterally push and vertically stretch the magnetic fields, forming a current sheet with a strong magnetic-field gradient. The magnetic field lines then break and reconnect, and so contribute towards coronal heating. Numerical results are presented that support these ideas and support the concept of a symbiosis between waves and reconnection in heating the solar corona.

This report presents an overview of the AIM 2025 RipSeg Challenge, a competition designed to advance techniques for automatic rip current segmentation in still images. Rip currents are dangerous, fast-moving flows that pose a major risk to beach safety worldwide, making accurate visual detection an important and underexplored research task. The challenge builds on RipVIS, the largest available rip current dataset, and focuses on single-class instance segmentation, where precise delineation is critical to fully capture the extent of rip currents. The dataset spans diverse locations, rip current types, and camera orientations, providing a realistic and challenging benchmark. In total, 75 participants registered for this first edition, resulting in 5 valid test submissions. Teams were evaluated on a composite score combining F_1, F_2, AP_{50}, and AP_{[50:95]}, ensuring robust and application-relevant rankings. The top-performing methods leveraged deep learning architectures, domain adaptation techniques, pretrained models, and domain generalization strategies to improve performance under diverse conditions. This report outlines the dataset details, competition framework, evaluation metrics, and final results, providing insights into the current state of rip current segmentation. We conclude with a discussion of key challenges, lessons learned from the submissions, and future directions for expanding RipSeg.

This study presents the application of generative deep learning techniques to evaluate marine fog visibility nowcasting using the FATIMA (Fog and turbulence interactions in the marine atmosphere) campaign observations collected during July 2022 in the North Atlantic in the Grand Banks area and vicinity of Sable Island (SI), northeast of Canada. The measurements were collected using the Vaisala Forward Scatter Sensor model FD70 and Weather Transmitter model WXT50, and Gill R3A ultrasonic anemometer mounted on the Research Vessel Atlantic Condor. To perform nowcasting, the time series of fog visibility (Vis), wind speed, dew point depression, and relative humidity with respect to water were preprocessed to have lagged time step features. Generative nowcasting of Vis time series for lead times of 30 and 60 minutes were performed using conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) regression at visibility thresholds of Vis < 1 km and < 10 km. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was used as a baseline method for comparison against cGAN. At the 30 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with cGAN at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.151 km) and with XGBoost at Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 2.821 km). At the 60 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with XGBoost at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.167 km) and Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 3.508 km), but the cGAN RMSE was similar to XGBoost. Despite nowcasting Vis at 30 min being quite difficult, the ability of the cGAN model to track the variation in Vis at 1 km suggests that there is potential for generative analysis of marine fog visibility using observational meteorological parameters.

Maritime transportation is paramount in achieving global economic growth, entailing concurrent ecological obligations in sustainability and safeguarding endangered marine species, most notably preserving large whale populations. In this regard, the Automatic Identification System (AIS) data plays a significant role by offering real-time streaming data on vessel movement, allowing enhanced traffic monitoring. This study explores using AIS data to prevent vessel-to-whale collisions by forecasting long-term vessel trajectories from engineered AIS data sequences. For such a task, we have developed an encoder-decoder model architecture using Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (Bi-LSTM) to predict the next 12 hours of vessel trajectories using 1 to 3 hours of AIS data as input. We feed the model with probabilistic features engineered from historical AIS data that refer to each trajectory's potential route and destination. The model then predicts the vessel's trajectory, considering these additional features by leveraging convolutional layers for spatial feature learning and a position-aware attention mechanism that increases the importance of recent timesteps of a sequence during temporal feature learning. The probabilistic features have an F1 Score of approximately 85% and 75% for each feature type, respectively, demonstrating their effectiveness in augmenting information to the neural network. We test our model on the Gulf of St. Lawrence, a region known to be the habitat of North Atlantic Right Whales (NARW). Our model achieved a high R2 score of over 98% using various techniques and features. It stands out among other approaches as it can make complex decisions during turnings and path selection. Our study highlights the potential of data engineering and trajectory forecasting models for marine life species preservation.

Indonesia's nickel ore export ban has driven rapid expansion of smelting and hydrometallurgical processing capacity at the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), now the world's largest integrated nickel processing complex, on the coast of Central Sulawesi. Whether this industrialization has degraded the adjacent marine environment remains unquantified. We apply Bayesian structural time-series (BSTS) causal inference to a multi-decadal, multi-sensor satellite ocean color record of the diffuse attenuation coefficient at 490 nm, K_d(490), to test for a causal link between IMIP expansion and nearshore turbidity change. A consensus structural breakpoint, a significant posterior causal effect estimated against a Banda Sea counterfactual, and a distribution-free placebo rank test collectively establish that coastal water clarity deteriorated after the transition from initial nickel pig iron production to hyper-expansion of high-pressure acid leaching facilities for battery-grade nickel. Satellite-derived land cover analysis independently corroborates this timing, showing substantial built-area growth and concurrent tree cover loss within the IMIP footprint. The resulting euphotic zone shoaling occurs in oligotrophic waters supporting high marine biodiversity, where even moderate optical degradation may impair coral photosynthesis and compress depth-dependent reef habitat. These findings quantify a marine environmental cost absent from Indonesia's mineral downstreaming policy discourse and demonstrate a transferable, satellite-based quasi-experimental framework for causal impact assessment at coastal industrial sites in data-limited tropical settings.

Reconstructing subsurface ocean dynamics, such as vertical velocity fields, from incomplete surface observations poses a critical challenge in Earth science, a field long hampered by the lack of standardized, analysis-ready benchmarks. To systematically address this issue and catalyze research, we first build and release KD48, a high-resolution ocean dynamics benchmark derived from petascale simulations and curated with expert-driven denoising. Building on this benchmark, we introduce VISION, a novel reconstruction paradigm based on Dynamic Prompting designed to tackle the core problem of missing data in real-world observations. The essence of VISION lies in its ability to generate a visual prompt on-the-fly from any available subset of observations, which encodes both data availability and the ocean's physical state. More importantly, we design a State-conditioned Prompting module that efficiently injects this prompt into a universal backbone, endowed with geometry- and scale-aware operators, to guide its adaptive adjustment of computational strategies. This mechanism enables VISION to precisely handle the challenges posed by varying input combinations. Extensive experiments on the KD48 benchmark demonstrate that VISION not only substantially outperforms state-of-the-art models but also exhibits strong generalization under extreme data missing scenarios. By providing a high-quality benchmark and a robust model, our work establishes a solid infrastructure for ocean science research under data uncertainty. Our codes are available at: https://github.com/YuanGao-YG/VISION.