Daily Papers

Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) in the brain and in silico excel at solving tasks with intricate temporal dependencies. Long timescales required for solving such tasks can arise from properties of individual neurons (single-neuron timescale, tau, e.g., membrane time constant in biological neurons) or recurrent interactions among them (network-mediated timescale). However, the contribution of each mechanism for optimally solving memory-dependent tasks remains poorly understood. Here, we train RNNs to solve N-parity and N-delayed match-to-sample tasks with increasing memory requirements controlled by N by simultaneously optimizing recurrent weights and taus. We find that for both tasks RNNs develop longer timescales with increasing N, but depending on the learning objective, they use different mechanisms. Two distinct curricula define learning objectives: sequential learning of a single-N (single-head) or simultaneous learning of multiple Ns (multi-head). Single-head networks increase their tau with N and are able to solve tasks for large N, but they suffer from catastrophic forgetting. However, multi-head networks, which are explicitly required to hold multiple concurrent memories, keep tau constant and develop longer timescales through recurrent connectivity. Moreover, we show that the multi-head curriculum increases training speed and network stability to ablations and perturbations, and allows RNNs to generalize better to tasks beyond their training regime. This curriculum also significantly improves training GRUs and LSTMs for large-N tasks. Our results suggest that adapting timescales to task requirements via recurrent interactions allows learning more complex objectives and improves the RNN's performance.

Temporal networks have been widely used to model real-world complex systems such as financial systems and e-commerce systems. In a temporal network, the joint neighborhood of a set of nodes often provides crucial structural information useful for predicting whether they may interact at a certain time. However, recent representation learning methods for temporal networks often fail to extract such information or depend on online construction of structural features, which is time-consuming. To address the issue, this work proposes Neighborhood-Aware Temporal network model (NAT). For each node in the network, NAT abandons the commonly-used one-single-vector-based representation while adopting a novel dictionary-type neighborhood representation. Such a dictionary representation records a downsampled set of the neighboring nodes as keys, and allows fast construction of structural features for a joint neighborhood of multiple nodes. We also design a dedicated data structure termed N-cache to support parallel access and update of those dictionary representations on GPUs. NAT gets evaluated over seven real-world large-scale temporal networks. NAT not only outperforms all cutting-edge baselines by averaged 1.2% and 4.2% in transductive and inductive link prediction accuracy, respectively, but also keeps scalable by achieving a speed-up of 4.1-76.7x against the baselines that adopt joint structural features and achieves a speed-up of 1.6-4.0x against the baselines that cannot adopt those features. The link to the code: https: //github.com/Graph-COM/Neighborhood-Aware-Temporal-Network.

Networks have become indispensable and ubiquitous structures in many fields to model the interactions among different entities, such as friendship in social networks or protein interactions in biological graphs. A major challenge is to understand the structure and dynamics of these systems. Although networks evolve through time, most existing graph representation learning methods target only static networks. Whereas approaches have been developed for the modeling of dynamic networks, there is a lack of efficient continuous time dynamic graph representation learning methods that can provide accurate network characterization and visualization in low dimensions while explicitly accounting for prominent network characteristics such as homophily and transitivity. In this paper, we propose the Piecewise-Velocity Model (PiVeM) for the representation of continuous-time dynamic networks. It learns dynamic embeddings in which the temporal evolution of nodes is approximated by piecewise linear interpolations based on a latent distance model with piecewise constant node-specific velocities. The model allows for analytically tractable expressions of the associated Poisson process likelihood with scalable inference invariant to the number of events. We further impose a scalable Kronecker structured Gaussian Process prior to the dynamics accounting for community structure, temporal smoothness, and disentangled (uncorrelated) latent embedding dimensions optimally learned to characterize the network dynamics. We show that PiVeM can successfully represent network structure and dynamics in ultra-low two-dimensional spaces. It outperforms relevant state-of-art methods in downstream tasks such as link prediction. In summary, PiVeM enables easily interpretable dynamic network visualizations and characterizations that can further improve our understanding of the intrinsic dynamics of time-evolving networks.

Key graph-based problems play a central role in understanding network topology and uncovering patterns of similarity in homogeneous and temporal data. Such patterns can be revealed by analyzing communities formed by nodes, which in turn can be effectively modeled through temporal k-cores. This paper introduces a novel decentralized and incremental algorithm for computing the core decomposition of temporal networks. Decentralized solutions leverage the ability of network nodes to communicate and coordinate locally, addressing complex problems in a scalable, adaptive, and timely manner. By leveraging previously computed coreness values, our approach significantly reduces the activation of nodes and the volume of message exchanges when the network changes over time. This enables scalability with only a minimal trade-off in precision. Experimental evaluations on large real-world networks under varying levels of dynamism demonstrate the efficiency of our solution compared to a state-of-the-art approach, particularly in terms of active nodes, communication overhead, and convergence speed.

Many real-world systems exhibit temporal, dynamic behaviors, which are captured as time series of complex agent interactions. To perform temporal reasoning, current methods primarily encode temporal dynamics through simple sequence-based models. However, in general these models fail to efficiently capture the full spectrum of rich dynamics in the input, since the dynamics is not uniformly distributed. In particular, relevant information might be harder to extract and computing power is wasted for processing all individual timesteps, even if they contain no significant changes or no new information. Here we propose TimeGraphs, a novel approach that characterizes dynamic interactions as a hierarchical temporal graph, diverging from traditional sequential representations. Our approach models the interactions using a compact graph-based representation, enabling adaptive reasoning across diverse time scales. Adopting a self-supervised method, TimeGraphs constructs a multi-level event hierarchy from a temporal input, which is then used to efficiently reason about the unevenly distributed dynamics. This construction process is scalable and incremental to accommodate streaming data. We evaluate TimeGraphs on multiple datasets with complex, dynamic agent interactions, including a football simulator, the Resistance game, and the MOMA human activity dataset. The results demonstrate both robustness and efficiency of TimeGraphs on a range of temporal reasoning tasks. Our approach obtains state-of-the-art performance and leads to a performance increase of up to 12.2% on event prediction and recognition tasks over current approaches. Our experiments further demonstrate a wide array of capabilities including zero-shot generalization, robustness in case of data sparsity, and adaptability to streaming data flow.

Node centralities play a pivotal role in network science, social network analysis, and recommender systems. In temporal data, static path-based centralities like closeness or betweenness can give misleading results about the true importance of nodes in a temporal graph. To address this issue, temporal generalizations of betweenness and closeness have been defined that are based on the shortest time-respecting paths between pairs of nodes. However, a major issue of those generalizations is that the calculation of such paths is computationally expensive. Addressing this issue, we study the application of De Bruijn Graph Neural Networks (DBGNN), a causality-aware graph neural network architecture, to predict temporal path-based centralities in time series data. We experimentally evaluate our approach in 13 temporal graphs from biological and social systems and show that it considerably improves the prediction of both betweenness and closeness centrality compared to a static Graph Convolutional Neural Network.

Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have emerged as powerful foundation models for tabular causal inference, yet their extension to time series remains limited by the absence of synthetic data generators that provide interventional targets. Existing time series benchmarks generate observational data with ground-truth causal graphs but lack the interventional data required for training causal foundation models. To address this, we propose CausalTimePrior, a principled framework for generating synthetic temporal structural causal models (TSCMs) with paired observational and interventional time series. Our prior supports configurable causal graph structures, nonlinear autoregressive mechanisms, regime-switching dynamics, and multiple intervention types (hard, soft, time-varying). We demonstrate that PFNs trained on CausalTimePrior can perform in-context causal effect estimation on held-out TSCMs, establishing a pathway toward foundation models for time series causal inference.

Real-world networks, with their evolving relations, are best captured as temporal graphs. However, existing software libraries are largely designed for static graphs where the dynamic nature of temporal graphs is ignored. Bridging this gap, we introduce TGX, a Python package specially designed for analysis of temporal networks that encompasses an automated pipeline for data loading, data processing, and analysis of evolving graphs. TGX provides access to eleven built-in datasets and eight external Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB) datasets as well as any novel datasets in the .csv format. Beyond data loading, TGX facilitates data processing functionalities such as discretization of temporal graphs and node subsampling to accelerate working with larger datasets. For comprehensive investigation, TGX offers network analysis by providing a diverse set of measures, including average node degree and the evolving number of nodes and edges per timestamp. Additionally, the package consolidates meaningful visualization plots indicating the evolution of temporal patterns, such as Temporal Edge Appearance (TEA) and Temporal Edge Trafficc (TET) plots. The TGX package is a robust tool for examining the features of temporal graphs and can be used in various areas like studying social networks, citation networks, and tracking user interactions. We plan to continuously support and update TGX based on community feedback. TGX is publicly available on: https://github.com/ComplexData-MILA/TGX.

Networks provide a powerful formalism for modeling complex systems by using a model of pairwise interactions. But much of the structure within these systems involves interactions that take place among more than two nodes at once; for example, communication within a group rather than person-to person, collaboration among a team rather than a pair of coauthors, or biological interaction between a set of molecules rather than just two. Such higher-order interactions are ubiquitous, but their empirical study has received limited attention, and little is known about possible organizational principles of such structures. Here we study the temporal evolution of 19 datasets with explicit accounting for higher-order interactions. We show that there is a rich variety of structure in our datasets but datasets from the same system types have consistent patterns of higher-order structure. Furthermore, we find that tie strength and edge density are competing positive indicators of higher-order organization, and these trends are consistent across interactions involving differing numbers of nodes. To systematically further the study of theories for such higher-order structures, we propose higher-order link prediction as a benchmark problem to assess models and algorithms that predict higher-order structure. We find a fundamental differences from traditional pairwise link prediction, with a greater role for local rather than long-range information in predicting the appearance of new interactions.

Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes (e.g., information diffusion, virus propagation) occurring over the unobserved network. While there have been efforts to infer networks based on such data, providing a generative probabilistic model that is able to identify the underlying time-varying network remains an open question. Here we consider the problem of inferring generative dynamic network models based on network cascade diffusion data. We propose a novel framework for providing a non-parametric dynamic network model--based on a mixture of coupled hierarchical Dirichlet processes-- based on data capturing cascade node infection times. Our approach allows us to infer the evolving community structure in networks and to obtain an explicit predictive distribution over the edges of the underlying network--including those that were not involved in transmission of any cascade, or are likely to appear in the future. We show the effectiveness of our approach using extensive experiments on synthetic as well as real-world networks.

Temporal graphs are widely used to model dynamic systems with time-varying interactions. In real-world scenarios, the underlying mechanisms of generating future interactions in dynamic systems are typically governed by a set of recurring substructures within the graph, known as temporal motifs. Despite the success and prevalence of current temporal graph neural networks (TGNN), it remains uncertain which temporal motifs are recognized as the significant indications that trigger a certain prediction from the model, which is a critical challenge for advancing the explainability and trustworthiness of current TGNNs. To address this challenge, we propose a novel approach, called Temporal Motifs Explainer (TempME), which uncovers the most pivotal temporal motifs guiding the prediction of TGNNs. Derived from the information bottleneck principle, TempME extracts the most interaction-related motifs while minimizing the amount of contained information to preserve the sparsity and succinctness of the explanation. Events in the explanations generated by TempME are verified to be more spatiotemporally correlated than those of existing approaches, providing more understandable insights. Extensive experiments validate the superiority of TempME, with up to 8.21% increase in terms of explanation accuracy across six real-world datasets and up to 22.96% increase in boosting the prediction Average Precision of current TGNNs.

Interdisciplinary scientific breakthroughs mostly emerge unexpectedly, and forecasting the formation of novel research fields remains a major challenge. We introduce FOS (Future Of Science), a comprehensive time-aware graph-based benchmark that reconstructs annual co-occurrence graphs of 65,027 research sub-fields (spanning 19 general domains) over the period 1827-2024. In these graphs, edges denote the co-occurrence of two fields in a single publication and are timestamped with the corresponding publication year. Nodes are enriched with semantic embeddings, and edges are characterized by temporal and topological descriptors. We formulate the prediction of new field-pair linkages as a temporal link-prediction task, emphasizing the "first-time" connections that signify pioneering interdisciplinary directions. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art temporal graph architectures under multiple negative-sampling regimes and show that (i) embedding long-form textual descriptions of fields significantly boosts prediction accuracy, and (ii) distinct model classes excel under different evaluation settings. Case analyses show that top-ranked link predictions on FOS align with field pairings that emerge in subsequent years of academic publications. We publicly release FOS, along with its temporal data splits and evaluation code, to establish a reproducible benchmark for advancing research in predicting scientific frontiers.

Dynamic graph learning methods have recently emerged as powerful tools for modelling relational data evolving through time. However, despite extensive benchmarking efforts, it remains unclear whether current Temporal Graph Neural Networks (TGNNs) effectively capture core temporal patterns such as periodicity, cause-and-effect, and long-range dependencies. In this work, we introduce the Temporal Graph Reasoning Benchmark (T-GRAB), a comprehensive set of synthetic tasks designed to systematically probe the capabilities of TGNNs to reason across time. T-GRAB provides controlled, interpretable tasks that isolate key temporal skills: counting/memorizing periodic repetitions, inferring delayed causal effects, and capturing long-range dependencies over both spatial and temporal dimensions. We evaluate 11 temporal graph learning methods on these tasks, revealing fundamental shortcomings in their ability to generalize temporal patterns. Our findings offer actionable insights into the limitations of current models, highlight challenges hidden by traditional real-world benchmarks, and motivate the development of architectures with stronger temporal reasoning abilities. The code for T-GRAB can be found at: https://github.com/alirezadizaji/T-GRAB.

Graph Neural Networks have gained huge interest in the past few years. These powerful algorithms expanded deep learning models to non-Euclidean space and were able to achieve state of art performance in various applications including recommender systems and social networks. However, this performance is based on static graph structures assumption which limits the Graph Neural Networks performance when the data varies with time. Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks are extension of Graph Neural Networks that takes the time factor into account. Recently, various Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Network algorithms were proposed and achieved superior performance compared to other deep learning algorithms in several time dependent applications. This survey discusses interesting topics related to Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks, including algorithms, applications, and open challenges.

The deep neural nets of modern artificial intelligence (AI) have not achieved defining features of biological intelligence, including abstraction, causal learning, and energy-efficiency. While scaling to larger models has delivered performance improvements for current applications, more brain-like capacities may demand new theories, models, and methods for designing artificial learning systems. Here, we argue that this opportunity to reassess insights from the brain should stimulate cooperation between AI research and theory-driven computational neuroscience (CN). To motivate a brain basis of neural computation, we present a dynamical view of intelligence from which we elaborate concepts of sparsity in network structure, temporal dynamics, and interactive learning. In particular, we suggest that temporal dynamics, as expressed through neural synchrony, nested oscillations, and flexible sequences, provide a rich computational layer for reading and updating hierarchical models distributed in long-term memory networks. Moreover, embracing agent-centered paradigms in AI and CN will accelerate our understanding of the complex dynamics and behaviors that build useful world models. A convergence of AI/CN theories and objectives will reveal dynamical principles of intelligence for brains and engineered learning systems. This article was inspired by our symposium on dynamical neuroscience and machine learning at the 6th Annual US/NIH BRAIN Initiative Investigators Meeting.

Graph-based deep learning methods have become popular tools to process collections of correlated time series. Differently from traditional multivariate forecasting methods, neural graph-based predictors take advantage of pairwise relationships by conditioning forecasts on a (possibly dynamic) graph spanning the time series collection. The conditioning can take the form of an architectural inductive bias on the neural forecasting architecture, resulting in a family of deep learning models called spatiotemporal graph neural networks. Such relational inductive biases enable the training of global forecasting models on large time-series collections, while at the same time localizing predictions w.r.t. each element in the set (i.e., graph nodes) by accounting for local correlations among them (i.e., graph edges). Indeed, recent theoretical and practical advances in graph neural networks and deep learning for time series forecasting make the adoption of such processing frameworks appealing and timely. However, most of the studies in the literature focus on proposing variations of existing neural architectures by taking advantage of modern deep learning practices, while foundational and methodological aspects have not been subject to systematic investigation. To fill the gap, this paper aims to introduce a comprehensive methodological framework that formalizes the forecasting problem and provides design principles for graph-based predictive models and methods to assess their performance. At the same time, together with an overview of the field, we provide design guidelines, recommendations, and best practices, as well as an in-depth discussion of open challenges and future research directions.

Complex systems are characterized by intricate interactions between entities that evolve dynamically over time. Accurate inference of these dynamic relationships is crucial for understanding and predicting system behavior. In this paper, we propose Regulatory Temporal Interaction Network Inference (RiTINI) for inferring time-varying interaction graphs in complex systems using a novel combination of space-and-time graph attentions and graph neural ordinary differential equations (ODEs). RiTINI leverages time-lapse signals on a graph prior, as well as perturbations of signals at various nodes in order to effectively capture the dynamics of the underlying system. This approach is distinct from traditional causal inference networks, which are limited to inferring acyclic and static graphs. In contrast, RiTINI can infer cyclic, directed, and time-varying graphs, providing a more comprehensive and accurate representation of complex systems. The graph attention mechanism in RiTINI allows the model to adaptively focus on the most relevant interactions in time and space, while the graph neural ODEs enable continuous-time modeling of the system's dynamics. We evaluate RiTINI's performance on various simulated and real-world datasets, demonstrating its state-of-the-art capability in inferring interaction graphs compared to previous methods.

A prominent paradigm for graph neural networks is based on the message-passing framework. In this framework, information communication is realized only between neighboring nodes. The challenge of approaches that use this paradigm is to ensure efficient and accurate long-distance communication between nodes, as deep convolutional networks are prone to oversmoothing. In this paper, we present a novel method based on time derivative graph diffusion (TIDE) to overcome these structural limitations of the message-passing framework. Our approach allows for optimizing the spatial extent of diffusion across various tasks and network channels, thus enabling medium and long-distance communication efficiently. Furthermore, we show that our architecture design also enables local message-passing and thus inherits from the capabilities of local message-passing approaches. We show that on both widely used graph benchmarks and synthetic mesh and graph datasets, the proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods by a significant margin

Markov processes are widely used mathematical models for describing dynamic systems in various fields. However, accurately simulating large-scale systems at long time scales is computationally expensive due to the short time steps required for accurate integration. In this paper, we introduce an inference process that maps complex systems into a simplified representational space and models large jumps in time. To achieve this, we propose Time-lagged Information Bottleneck (T-IB), a principled objective rooted in information theory, which aims to capture relevant temporal features while discarding high-frequency information to simplify the simulation task and minimize the inference error. Our experiments demonstrate that T-IB learns information-optimal representations for accurately modeling the statistical properties and dynamics of the original process at a selected time lag, outperforming existing time-lagged dimensionality reduction methods.

Networks capture our intuition about relationships in the world. They describe the friendships between Facebook users, interactions in financial markets, and synapses connecting neurons in the brain. These networks are richly structured with cliques of friends, sectors of stocks, and a smorgasbord of cell types that govern how neurons connect. Some networks, like social network friendships, can be directly observed, but in many cases we only have an indirect view of the network through the actions of its constituents and an understanding of how the network mediates that activity. In this work, we focus on the problem of latent network discovery in the case where the observable activity takes the form of a mutually-excitatory point process known as a Hawkes process. We build on previous work that has taken a Bayesian approach to this problem, specifying prior distributions over the latent network structure and a likelihood of observed activity given this network. We extend this work by proposing a discrete-time formulation and developing a computationally efficient stochastic variational inference (SVI) algorithm that allows us to scale the approach to long sequences of observations. We demonstrate our algorithm on the calcium imaging data used in the Chalearn neural connectomics challenge.

Predicting the behavior of complex systems is critical in many scientific and engineering domains, and hinges on the model's ability to capture their underlying dynamics. Existing methods encode the intrinsic dynamics of high-dimensional observations through latent representations and predict autoregressively. However, these latent representations lose the inherent spatial structure of spatiotemporal dynamics, leading to the predictor's inability to effectively model spatial interactions and neglect emerging dynamics during long-term prediction. In this work, we propose SparseDiff, introducing a test-time adaptation strategy to dynamically update the encoding scheme to accommodate emergent spatiotemporal structures during the long-term evolution of the system. Specifically, we first design a codebook-based sparse encoder, which coarsens the continuous spatial domain into a sparse graph topology. Then, we employ a graph neural ordinary differential equation to model the dynamics and guide a diffusion decoder for reconstruction. SparseDiff autoregressively predicts the spatiotemporal evolution and adjust the sparse topological structure to adapt to emergent spatiotemporal patterns by adaptive re-encoding. Extensive evaluations on representative systems demonstrate that SparseDiff achieves an average prediction error reduction of 49.99\% compared to baselines, requiring only 1\% of the spatial resolution.

Evaluating retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipelines requires corpora where ground truth is knowable, temporally structured, and cross-artifact properties that real-world datasets rarely provide cleanly. Existing resources such as the Enron corpus carry legal ambiguity, demographic skew, and no structured ground truth. Purely LLM-generated synthetic data solves the legal problem but introduces a subtler one: the generating model cannot be prevented from hallucinating facts that contradict themselves across documents.We present OrgForge, an open-source multi-agent simulation framework that enforces a strict physics-cognition boundary: a deterministic Python engine maintains a SimEvent ground truth bus; large language models generate only surface prose, constrained by validated proposals. An actor-local clock enforces causal timestamp correctness across all artifact types, eliminating the class of timeline inconsistencies that arise when timestamps are sampled independently per document. We formalize three graph-dynamic subsystems stress propagation via betweenness centrality, temporal edge-weight decay, and Dijkstra escalation routing that govern organizational behavior independently of any LLM. Running a configurable N-day simulation, OrgForge produces interleaved Slack threads, JIRA tickets, Confluence pages, Git pull requests, and emails, all traceable to a shared, immutable event log. We additionally describe a causal chain tracking subsystem that accumulates cross-artifact evidence graphs per incident, a hybrid reciprocal-rank-fusion recurrence detector for identifying repeated failure classes, and an inbound/outbound email engine that routes vendor alerts, customer complaints, and HR correspondence through gated causal chains with probabilistic drop simulation. OrgForge is available under the MIT license.

Despite the successful application of Temporal Graph Networks (TGNs) for tasks such as dynamic node classification and link prediction, they still perform poorly on the task of dynamic node affinity prediction -- where the goal is to predict 'how much' two nodes will interact in the future. In fact, simple heuristic approaches such as persistent forecasts and moving averages over ground-truth labels significantly and consistently outperform TGNs. Building on this observation, we find that computing heuristics over messages is an equally competitive approach, outperforming TGN and all current temporal graph (TG) models on dynamic node affinity prediction. In this paper, we prove that no formulation of TGN can represent persistent forecasting or moving averages over messages, and propose to enhance the expressivity of TGNs by adding source-target identification to each interaction event message. We show that this modification is required to represent persistent forecasting, moving averages, and the broader class of autoregressive models over messages. Our proposed method, TGNv2, significantly outperforms TGN and all current TG models on all Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB) dynamic node affinity prediction datasets.

We introduce Timer-S1, a strong Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) time series foundation model with 8.3B total parameters, 0.75B activated parameters for each token, and a context length of 11.5K. To overcome the scalability bottleneck in existing pre-trained time series foundation models, we perform Serial Scaling in three dimensions: model architecture, dataset, and training pipeline. Timer-S1 integrates sparse TimeMoE blocks and generic TimeSTP blocks for Serial-Token Prediction (STP), a generic training objective that adheres to the serial nature of forecasting. The proposed paradigm introduces serial computations to improve long-term predictions while avoiding costly rolling-style inference and pronounced error accumulation in the standard next-token prediction. Pursuing a high-quality and unbiased training dataset, we curate TimeBench, a corpus with one trillion time points, and apply meticulous data augmentation to mitigate predictive bias. We further pioneer a post-training stage, including continued pre-training and long-context extension, to enhance short-term and long-context performance. Evaluated on the large-scale GIFT-Eval leaderboard, Timer-S1 achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, attaining the best MASE and CRPS scores as a pre-trained model. Timer-S1 will be released to facilitate further research.

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-your-own coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

Knowledge about the hidden factors that determine particular system dynamics is crucial for both explaining them and pursuing goal-directed interventions. Inferring these factors from time series data without supervision remains an open challenge. Here, we focus on spatiotemporal processes, including wave propagation and weather dynamics, for which we assume that universal causes (e.g. physics) apply throughout space and time. A recently introduced DIstributed SpatioTemporal graph Artificial Neural network Architecture (DISTANA) is used and enhanced to learn such processes, requiring fewer parameters and achieving significantly more accurate predictions compared to temporal convolutional neural networks and other related approaches. We show that DISTANA, when combined with a retrospective latent state inference principle called active tuning, can reliably derive location-respective hidden causal factors. In a current weather prediction benchmark, DISTANA infers our planet's land-sea mask solely by observing temperature dynamics and, meanwhile, uses the self inferred information to improve its own future temperature predictions.

Modeling dynamic graphs, such as those found in social networks, recommendation systems, and e-commerce platforms, is crucial for capturing evolving relationships and delivering relevant insights over time. Traditional approaches primarily rely on graph neural networks with temporal components or sequence generation models, which often focus narrowly on the historical context of target nodes. This limitation restricts the ability to adapt to new and emerging patterns in dynamic graphs. To address this challenge, we propose a novel framework, Retrieval-Augmented Generation for Dynamic Graph modeling (RAG4DyG), which enhances dynamic graph predictions by incorporating contextually and temporally relevant examples from broader graph structures. Our approach includes a time- and context-aware contrastive learning module to identify high-quality demonstrations and a graph fusion strategy to effectively integrate these examples with historical contexts. The proposed framework is designed to be effective in both transductive and inductive scenarios, ensuring adaptability to previously unseen nodes and evolving graph structures. Extensive experiments across multiple real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of RAG4DyG in improving predictive accuracy and adaptability for dynamic graph modeling. The code and datasets are publicly available at https://github.com/YuxiaWu/RAG4DyG.

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate temporal reasoning behavior under progressively richer informational settings. TemporalBench adopts a four-tier task taxonomy that examines historical structure interpretation, context-free forecasting, contextual temporal reasoning, and event-conditioned prediction across four real-world domains: retail, healthcare, energy, and physical systems. By controlling access to future targets and contextual information, the benchmark enables a diagnostic analysis of whether models can correctly interpret temporal patterns, align them with external context, and adapt predictions when conditions change. Extensive baseline experiments show that strong numerical forecasting accuracy does not reliably translate into robust contextual or event-aware temporal reasoning; instead, existing agent frameworks exhibit fragmented strengths and systematic failure modes that remain largely hidden under forecasting-only benchmarks. The TemporalBench dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TemporalBench, and we additionally provide a public leaderboard at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Melady/TemporalBench_Leaderboard.

Spatio-temporal prediction is a pivotal task with broad applications in traffic management, climate monitoring, energy scheduling, etc. However, existing methodologies often struggle to balance model expressiveness and computational efficiency, especially when scaling to large real-world datasets. To tackle these challenges, we propose STH-SepNet (Spatio-Temporal Hypergraph Separation Networks), a novel framework that decouples temporal and spatial modeling to enhance both efficiency and precision. Therein, the temporal dimension is modeled using lightweight large language models, which effectively capture low-rank temporal dynamics. Concurrently, the spatial dimension is addressed through an adaptive hypergraph neural network, which dynamically constructs hyperedges to model intricate, higher-order interactions. A carefully designed gating mechanism is integrated to seamlessly fuse temporal and spatial representations. By leveraging the fundamental principles of low-rank temporal dynamics and spatial interactions, STH-SepNet offers a pragmatic and scalable solution for spatio-temporal prediction in real-world applications. Extensive experiments on large-scale real-world datasets across multiple benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of STH-SepNet in boosting predictive performance while maintaining computational efficiency. This work may provide a promising lightweight framework for spatio-temporal prediction, aiming to reduce computational demands and while enhancing predictive performance. Our code is avaliable at https://github.com/SEU-WENJIA/ST-SepNet-Lightweight-LLMs-Meet-Adaptive-Hypergraphs.

Temporal hypergraphs provide a powerful paradigm for modeling time-dependent, higher-order interactions in complex systems. Representation learning for hypergraphs is essential for extracting patterns of the higher-order interactions that are critically important in real-world problems in social network analysis, neuroscience, finance, etc. However, existing methods are typically designed only for specific tasks or static hypergraphs. We present CAT-Walk, an inductive method that learns the underlying dynamic laws that govern the temporal and structural processes underlying a temporal hypergraph. CAT-Walk introduces a temporal, higher-order walk on hypergraphs, SetWalk, that extracts higher-order causal patterns. CAT-Walk uses a novel adaptive and permutation invariant pooling strategy, SetMixer, along with a set-based anonymization process that hides the identity of hyperedges. Finally, we present a simple yet effective neural network model to encode hyperedges. Our evaluation on 10 hypergraph benchmark datasets shows that CAT-Walk attains outstanding performance on temporal hyperedge prediction benchmarks in both inductive and transductive settings. It also shows competitive performance with state-of-the-art methods for node classification. (https://github.com/ubc-systopia/CATWalk)

We propose Scalable Mechanistic Neural Network (S-MNN), an enhanced neural network framework designed for scientific machine learning applications involving long temporal sequences. By reformulating the original Mechanistic Neural Network (MNN) (Pervez et al., 2024), we reduce the computational time and space complexities from cubic and quadratic with respect to the sequence length, respectively, to linear. This significant improvement enables efficient modeling of long-term dynamics without sacrificing accuracy or interpretability. Extensive experiments demonstrate that S-MNN matches the original MNN in precision while substantially reducing computational resources. Consequently, S-MNN can drop-in replace the original MNN in applications, providing a practical and efficient tool for integrating mechanistic bottlenecks into neural network models of complex dynamical systems.

This paper aims to extend the Structured Knowledge Accumulation (SKA) framework recently proposed by mahi2025ska. We introduce two core concepts: the Tensor Net function and the characteristic time property of neural learning. First, we reinterpret the learning rate as a time step in a continuous system. This transforms neural learning from discrete optimization into continuous-time evolution. We show that learning dynamics remain consistent when the product of learning rate and iteration steps stays constant. This reveals a time-invariant behavior and identifies an intrinsic timescale of the network. Second, we define the Tensor Net function as a measure that captures the relationship between decision probabilities, entropy gradients, and knowledge change. Additionally, we define its zero-crossing as the equilibrium state between decision probabilities and entropy gradients. We show that the convergence of entropy and knowledge flow provides a natural stopping condition, replacing arbitrary thresholds with an information-theoretic criterion. We also establish that SKA dynamics satisfy a variational principle based on the Euler-Lagrange equation. These findings extend SKA into a continuous and self-organizing learning model. The framework links computational learning with physical systems that evolve by natural laws. By understanding learning as a time-based process, we open new directions for building efficient, robust, and biologically-inspired AI systems.

Complex networks have become essential tools for understanding diverse phenomena in social systems, traffic systems, biomolecular systems, and financial systems. Identifying critical nodes is a central theme in contemporary research, serving as a vital bridge between theoretical foundations and practical applications. Nevertheless, the intrinsic complexity and structural heterogeneity characterizing real-world networks, with particular emphasis on dynamic and higher-order networks, present substantial obstacles to the development of universal frameworks for critical node identification. This paper provides a comprehensive review of critical node identification techniques, categorizing them into seven main classes: centrality, critical nodes deletion problem, influence maximization, network control, artificial intelligence, higher-order and dynamic methods. Our review bridges the gaps in existing surveys by systematically classifying methods based on their methodological foundations and practical implications, and by highlighting their strengths, limitations, and applicability across different network types. Our work enhances the understanding of critical node research by identifying key challenges, such as algorithmic universality, real-time evaluation in dynamic networks, analysis of higher-order structures, and computational efficiency in large-scale networks. The structured synthesis consolidates current progress and highlights open questions, particularly in modeling temporal dynamics, advancing efficient algorithms, integrating machine learning approaches, and developing scalable and interpretable metrics for complex systems.

Artificial neural networks achieve strong performance on benchmark tasks but remain fundamentally brittle under perturbations, limiting their deployment in real-world settings. In contrast, biological nervous systems sustain reliable function across decades through homeostatic regulation coordinated across multiple temporal scales. Inspired by this principle, this presents Multi-Scale Temporal Homeostasis (MSTH), a biologically grounded framework that integrates ultra-fast (5-ms), fast (2-s), medium (5-min) and slow (1-hrs) regulation into artificial networks. MSTH implements the cross-scale coordination system for artificial neural networks, providing a unified temporal hierarchy that moves beyond superficial biomimicry. The cross-scale coordination enhances computational efficiency through evolutionary-refined optimization mechanisms. Experiments across molecular, graph and image classification benchmarks show that MSTH consistently improves accuracy, eliminates catastrophic failures and enhances recovery from perturbations. Moreover, MSTH outperforms both single-scale bio-inspired models and established state-of-the-art methods, demonstrating generality across diverse domains. These findings establish cross-scale temporal coordination as a core principle for stabilizing artificial neural systems, positioning MSTH as a foundation for building robust, resilient and biologically faithful intelligence.

Social and collaborative platforms emit multivariate time-series traces in which early interactions-such as views, likes, or downloads-are followed, sometimes months or years later, by higher impact like citations, sales, or reviews. We formalize this setting as Lead-Lag Forecasting (LLF): given an early usage channel (the lead), predict a correlated but temporally shifted outcome channel (the lag). Despite the ubiquity of such patterns, LLF has not been treated as a unified forecasting problem within the time-series community, largely due to the absence of standardized datasets. To anchor research in LLF, here we present two high-volume benchmark datasets-arXiv (accesses -> citations of 2.3M papers) and GitHub (pushes/stars -> forks of 3M repositories)-and outline additional domains with analogous lead-lag dynamics, including Wikipedia (page views -> edits), Spotify (streams -> concert attendance), e-commerce (click-throughs -> purchases), and LinkedIn profile (views -> messages). Our datasets provide ideal testbeds for lead-lag forecasting, by capturing long-horizon dynamics across years, spanning the full spectrum of outcomes, and avoiding survivorship bias in sampling. We documented all technical details of data curation and cleaning, verified the presence of lead-lag dynamics through statistical and classification tests, and benchmarked parametric and non-parametric baselines for regression. Our study establishes LLF as a novel forecasting paradigm and lays an empirical foundation for its systematic exploration in social and usage data. Our data portal with downloads and documentation is available at https://lead-lag-forecasting.github.io/.

We present the Temporal Graph Benchmark (TGB), a collection of challenging and diverse benchmark datasets for realistic, reproducible, and robust evaluation of machine learning models on temporal graphs. TGB datasets are of large scale, spanning years in duration, incorporate both node and edge-level prediction tasks and cover a diverse set of domains including social, trade, transaction, and transportation networks. For both tasks, we design evaluation protocols based on realistic use-cases. We extensively benchmark each dataset and find that the performance of common models can vary drastically across datasets. In addition, on dynamic node property prediction tasks, we show that simple methods often achieve superior performance compared to existing temporal graph models. We believe that these findings open up opportunities for future research on temporal graphs. Finally, TGB provides an automated machine learning pipeline for reproducible and accessible temporal graph research, including data loading, experiment setup and performance evaluation. TGB will be maintained and updated on a regular basis and welcomes community feedback. TGB datasets, data loaders, example codes, evaluation setup, and leaderboards are publicly available at https://tgb.complexdatalab.com/.

Multivariate time series forecasting is essential in domains such as finance, transportation, climate, and energy. However, existing patch-based methods typically adopt fixed-length segmentation, overlooking the heterogeneity of local temporal dynamics and the decoding heterogeneity of forecasting. Such designs lose details in information-dense regions, introduce redundancy in stable segments, and fail to capture the distinct complexities of short-term and long-term horizons. We propose TimeMosaic, a forecasting framework that aims to address temporal heterogeneity. TimeMosaic employs adaptive patch embedding to dynamically adjust granularity according to local information density, balancing motif reuse with structural clarity while preserving temporal continuity. In addition, it introduces segment-wise decoding that treats each prediction horizon as a related subtask and adapts to horizon-specific difficulty and information requirements, rather than applying a single uniform decoder. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that TimeMosaic delivers consistent improvements over existing methods, and our model trained on the large-scale corpus with 321 billion observations achieves performance competitive with state-of-the-art TSFMs.

The Dragonfly network, with its high-radix and low-diameter structure, is a leading interconnect in high-performance computing. A major challenge is workload interference on shared network links. Parallel discrete event simulation (PDES) is commonly used to analyze workload interference. However, high-fidelity PDES is computationally expensive, making it impractical for large-scale or real-time scenarios. Hybrid simulation that incorporates data-driven surrogate models offers a promising alternative, especially for forecasting application runtime, a task complicated by the dynamic behavior of network traffic. We present \ourmodel, a surrogate model that combines graph neural networks (GNNs) and large language models (LLMs) to capture both spatial and temporal patterns from port level router data. \ourmodel outperforms existing statistical and machine learning baselines, enabling accurate runtime prediction and supporting efficient hybrid simulation of Dragonfly networks.

Message passing neural networks (MPNNs) have been shown to suffer from the phenomenon of over-squashing that causes poor performance for tasks relying on long-range interactions. This can be largely attributed to message passing only occurring locally, over a node's immediate neighbours. Rewiring approaches attempting to make graphs 'more connected', and supposedly better suited to long-range tasks, often lose the inductive bias provided by distance on the graph since they make distant nodes communicate instantly at every layer. In this paper we propose a framework, applicable to any MPNN architecture, that performs a layer-dependent rewiring to ensure gradual densification of the graph. We also propose a delay mechanism that permits skip connections between nodes depending on the layer and their mutual distance. We validate our approach on several long-range tasks and show that it outperforms graph Transformers and multi-hop MPNNs.

We tackle the challenge of large-scale network intervention for guiding excitatory point processes, such as infectious disease spread or traffic congestion control. Our model-based reinforcement learning utilizes neural ODEs to capture how the networked excitatory point processes will evolve subject to the time-varying changes in network topology. Our approach incorporates Gradient-Descent based Model Predictive Control (GD-MPC), offering policy flexibility to accommodate prior knowledge and constraints. To address the intricacies of planning and overcome the high dimensionality inherent to such decision-making problems, we design an Amortize Network Interventions (ANI) framework, allowing for the pooling of optimal policies from history and other contexts, while ensuring a permutation equivalent property. This property enables efficient knowledge transfer and sharing across diverse contexts. Our approach has broad applications, from curbing infectious disease spread to reducing carbon emissions through traffic light optimization, and thus has the potential to address critical societal and environmental challenges.

Most graph neural network models learn embeddings of nodes in static attributed graphs for predictive analysis. Recent attempts have been made to learn temporal proximity of the nodes. We find that real dynamic attributed graphs exhibit complex co-evolution of node attributes and graph structure. Learning node embeddings for forecasting change of node attributes and birth and death of links over time remains an open problem. In this work, we present a novel framework called CoEvoGNN for modeling dynamic attributed graph sequence. It preserves the impact of earlier graphs on the current graph by embedding generation through the sequence. It has a temporal self-attention mechanism to model long-range dependencies in the evolution. Moreover, CoEvoGNN optimizes model parameters jointly on two dynamic tasks, attribute inference and link prediction over time. So the model can capture the co-evolutionary patterns of attribute change and link formation. This framework can adapt to any graph neural algorithms so we implemented and investigated three methods based on it: CoEvoGCN, CoEvoGAT, and CoEvoSAGE. Experiments demonstrate the framework (and its methods) outperform strong baselines on predicting an entire unseen graph snapshot of personal attributes and interpersonal links in dynamic social graphs and financial graphs.

Generating temporal data under conditions is crucial for forecasting, imputation, and generative tasks. Such data often has metadata and partially observed signals that jointly influence the generated values. However, existing methods face three key limitations: (1) they condition on either the metadata or observed values, but rarely both together; (2) they adopt either training-time approaches that fail to generalize to unseen scenarios, or inference-time approaches that ignore metadata; and (3) they suffer from trade-offs between generation speed and temporal coherence across time windows--choosing either slow but coherent autoregressive methods or fast but incoherent parallel ones. We propose WaveStitch, a novel diffusion-based method to overcome these hurdles through: (1) dual-sourced conditioning on both metadata and partially observed signals; (2) a hybrid training-inference architecture, incorporating metadata during training and observations at inference via gradient-based guidance; and (3) a novel pipeline-style paradigm that generates time windows in parallel while preserving coherence through an inference-time conditional loss and a stitching mechanism. Across diverse datasets, WaveStitch demonstrates adaptability to arbitrary patterns of observed signals, achieving 1.81x lower mean-squared-error compared to the state-of-the-art, and generates data up to 166.48x faster than autoregressive methods while maintaining coherence. Our code is available at: https://github.com/adis98/WaveStitch

The recovery of time-varying graph signals is a fundamental problem with numerous applications in sensor networks and forecasting in time series. Effectively capturing the spatio-temporal information in these signals is essential for the downstream tasks. Previous studies have used the smoothness of the temporal differences of such graph signals as an initial assumption. Nevertheless, this smoothness assumption could result in a degradation of performance in the corresponding application when the prior does not hold. In this work, we relax the requirement of this hypothesis by including a learning module. We propose a Time Graph Neural Network (TimeGNN) for the recovery of time-varying graph signals. Our algorithm uses an encoder-decoder architecture with a specialized loss composed of a mean squared error function and a Sobolev smoothness operator.TimeGNN shows competitive performance against previous methods in real datasets.

Random network models play a prominent role in modeling, analyzing and understanding complex phenomena on real-life networks. However, a key property of networks is often neglected: many real-world networks exhibit spatial structure, the tendency of a node to select neighbors with a probability depending on physical distance. Here, we introduce a class of random spatial networks (RSNs) which generalizes many existing random network models but adds spatial structure. In these networks, nodes are placed randomly in space and joined in edges with a probability depending on their distance and their individual expected degrees, in a manner that crucially remains analytically tractable. We use this network class to propose a new generalization of small-world networks, where the average shortest path lengths in the graph are small, as in classical Watts-Strogatz small-world networks, but with close spatial proximity of nodes that are neighbors in the network playing the role of large clustering. Small-world effects are demonstrated on these spatial small-world networks without clustering. We are able to derive partial integro-differential equations governing susceptible-infectious-recovered disease spreading through an RSN, and we demonstrate the existence of traveling wave solutions. If the distance kernel governing edge placement decays slower than exponential, the population-scale dynamics are dominated by long-range hops followed by local spread of traveling waves. This provides a theoretical modeling framework for recent observations of how epidemics like Ebola evolve in modern connected societies, with long-range connections seeding new focal points from which the epidemic locally spreads in a wavelike manner.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), especially message-passing neural networks (MPNNs), have emerged as powerful architectures for learning on graphs in diverse applications. However, MPNNs face challenges when modeling non-local interactions in graphs such as large conjugated molecules, and social networks due to oversmoothing and oversquashing. Although Spectral GNNs and traditional neural networks such as recurrent neural networks and transformers mitigate these challenges, they often lack generalizability, or fail to capture detailed structural relationships or symmetries in the data. To address these concerns, we introduce Matrix Function Neural Networks (MFNs), a novel architecture that parameterizes non-local interactions through analytic matrix equivariant functions. Employing resolvent expansions offers a straightforward implementation and the potential for linear scaling with system size. The MFN architecture achieves stateof-the-art performance in standard graph benchmarks, such as the ZINC and TU datasets, and is able to capture intricate non-local interactions in quantum systems, paving the way to new state-of-the-art force fields.

Causal discovery is essential for advancing data-driven fields such as scientific AI and data analysis, yet existing approaches face significant time- and space-efficiency bottlenecks when scaling to large graphs. To address this challenge, we present CauScale, a neural architecture designed for efficient causal discovery that scales inference to graphs with up to 1000 nodes. CauScale improves time efficiency via a reduction unit that compresses data embeddings and improves space efficiency by adopting tied attention weights to avoid maintaining axis-specific attention maps. To keep high causal discovery accuracy, CauScale adopts a two-stream design: a data stream extracts relational evidence from high-dimensional observations, while a graph stream integrates statistical graph priors and preserves key structural signals. CauScale successfully scales to 500-node graphs during training, where prior work fails due to space limitations. Across testing data with varying graph scales and causal mechanisms, CauScale achieves 99.6% mAP on in-distribution data and 84.4% on out-of-distribution data, while delivering 4-13,000 times inference speedups over prior methods. Our project page is at https://github.com/OpenCausaLab/CauScale.

Accurately predicting stock market movements remains a formidable challenge due to the inherent volatility and complex interdependencies among stocks. Although multi-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) hold potential for modeling these relationships, they frequently neglect two key points: the subtle intra-attribute patterns within each stock affecting inter-stock correlation, and the biased attention to coarse- and fine-grained features during multi-scale sampling. To overcome these challenges, we introduce MS-HGFN (Multi-Scale Hierarchical Graph Fusion Network). The model features a hierarchical GNN module that forms dynamic graphs by learning patterns from intra-attributes and features from inter-attributes over different time scales, thus comprehensively capturing spatio-temporal dependencies. Additionally, a top-down gating approach facilitates the integration of multi-scale spatio-temporal features, preserving critical coarse- and fine-grained features without too much interference. Experiments utilizing real-world datasets from U.S. and Chinese stock markets demonstrate that MS-HGFN outperforms both traditional and advanced models, yielding up to a 1.4% improvement in prediction accuracy and enhanced stability in return simulations. The code is available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MS-HGFN.

Due to the recurrent structure of RNN, the long information propagation path poses limitations in capturing long-term dependencies, gradient explosion/vanishing issues, and inefficient sequential execution. Based on this, we propose a novel paradigm called Parallel Gated Network (PGN) as the new successor to RNN. PGN directly captures information from previous time steps through the designed Historical Information Extraction (HIE) layer and leverages gated mechanisms to select and fuse it with the current time step information. This reduces the information propagation path to O(1), effectively addressing the limitations of RNN. To enhance PGN's performance in long-range time series forecasting tasks, we propose a novel temporal modeling framework called Temporal PGN (TPGN). TPGN incorporates two branches to comprehensively capture the semantic information of time series. One branch utilizes PGN to capture long-term periodic patterns while preserving their local characteristics. The other branch employs patches to capture short-term information and aggregate the global representation of the series. TPGN achieves a theoretical complexity of O(L), ensuring efficiency in its operations. Experimental results on five benchmark datasets demonstrate the state-of-the-art (SOTA) performance and high efficiency of TPGN, further confirming the effectiveness of PGN as the new successor to RNN in long-range time series forecasting. The code is available in this repository: https://github.com/Water2sea/TPGN.

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as powerful tools for learning on graph-structured data, but often struggle to balance local and global information. While graph Transformers aim to address this by enabling long-range interactions, they often overlook the inherent locality and efficiency of Message Passing Neural Networks (MPNNs). We propose a new concept called fractal nodes, inspired by the fractal structure observed in real-world networks. Our approach is based on the intuition that graph partitioning naturally induces fractal structure, where subgraphs often reflect the connectivity patterns of the full graph. Fractal nodes are designed to coexist with the original nodes and adaptively aggregate subgraph-level feature representations, thereby enforcing feature similarity within each subgraph. We show that fractal nodes alleviate the over-squashing problem by providing direct shortcut connections that enable long-range propagation of subgraph-level representations. Experiment results show that our method improves the expressive power of MPNNs and achieves comparable or better performance to graph Transformers while maintaining the computational efficiency of MPNN by improving the long-range dependencies of MPNN.

Signed networks allow us to model conflicting relationships and interactions, such as friend/enemy and support/oppose. These signed interactions happen in real-time. Modeling such dynamics of signed networks is crucial to understanding the evolution of polarization in the network and enabling effective prediction of the signed structure (i.e., link signs and signed weights) in the future. However, existing works have modeled either (static) signed networks or dynamic (unsigned) networks but not dynamic signed networks. Since both sign and dynamics inform the graph structure in different ways, it is non-trivial to model how to combine the two features. In this work, we propose a new Graph Neural Network (GNN)-based approach to model dynamic signed networks, named SEMBA: Signed link's Evolution using Memory modules and Balanced Aggregation. Here, the idea is to incorporate the signs of temporal interactions using separate modules guided by balance theory and to evolve the embeddings from a higher-order neighborhood. Experiments on 4 real-world datasets and 4 different tasks demonstrate that SEMBA consistently and significantly outperforms the baselines by up to 80% on the tasks of predicting signs of future links while matching the state-of-the-art performance on predicting the existence of these links in the future. We find that this improvement is due specifically to the superior performance of SEMBA on the minority negative class.

The problem of predicting node properties (e.g., node classes) in graphs has received significant attention due to its broad range of applications. Graphs from real-world datasets often evolve over time, with newly emerging edges and dynamically changing node properties, posing a significant challenge for this problem. In response, temporal graph neural networks (TGNNs) have been developed to predict dynamic node properties from a stream of emerging edges. However, our analysis reveals that most TGNN-based methods are (a) far less effective without proper node features and, due to their complex model architectures, (b) vulnerable to distribution shifts. In this paper, we propose SPLASH, a simple yet powerful method for predicting node properties on edge streams under distribution shifts. Our key contributions are as follows: (1) we propose feature augmentation methods and an automatic feature selection method for edge streams, which improve the effectiveness of TGNNs, (2) we propose a lightweight MLP-based TGNN architecture that is highly efficient and robust under distribution shifts, and (3) we conduct extensive experiments to evaluate the accuracy, efficiency, generalization, and qualitative performance of the proposed method and its competitors on dynamic node classification, dynamic anomaly detection, and node affinity prediction tasks across seven real-world datasets.

The performance of a language model has been shown to be effectively modeled as a power-law in its parameter count. Here we study the scaling behaviors of Routing Networks: architectures that conditionally use only a subset of their parameters while processing an input. For these models, parameter count and computational requirement form two independent axes along which an increase leads to better performance. In this work we derive and justify scaling laws defined on these two variables which generalize those known for standard language models and describe the performance of a wide range of routing architectures trained via three different techniques. Afterwards we provide two applications of these laws: first deriving an Effective Parameter Count along which all models scale at the same rate, and then using the scaling coefficients to give a quantitative comparison of the three routing techniques considered. Our analysis derives from an extensive evaluation of Routing Networks across five orders of magnitude of size, including models with hundreds of experts and hundreds of billions of parameters.

Finding multiple temporal relationships among locations can benefit a bunch of urban applications, such as dynamic offline advertising and smart public transport planning. While some efforts have been made on finding static relationships among locations, little attention is focused on studying time-aware location relationships. Indeed, abundant location-based human activities are time-varying and the availability of these data enables a new paradigm for understanding the dynamic relationships in a period among connective locations. To this end, we propose to study a new problem, namely multi-Temporal relationship inference among locations (Trial for short), where the major challenge is how to integrate dynamic and geographical influence under the relationship sparsity constraint. Specifically, we propose a solution to Trial with a graph learning scheme, which includes a spatially evolving graph neural network (SEENet) with two collaborative components: spatially evolving graph convolution module (SEConv) and spatially evolving self-supervised learning strategy (SE-SSL). SEConv performs the intra-time aggregation and inter-time propagation to capture the multifaceted spatially evolving contexts from the view of location message passing. In addition, SE-SSL designs time-aware self-supervised learning tasks in a global-local manner with additional evolving constraint to enhance the location representation learning and further handle the relationship sparsity. Finally, experiments on four real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method over several state-of-the-art approaches.

The endeavor of stock trend forecasting is principally focused on predicting the future trajectory of the stock market, utilizing either manual or technical methodologies to optimize profitability. Recent advancements in machine learning technologies have showcased their efficacy in discerning authentic profit signals within the realm of stock trend forecasting, predominantly employing temporal data derived from historical stock price patterns. Nevertheless, the inherently volatile and dynamic characteristics of the stock market render the learning and capture of multi-scale temporal dependencies and stable trading opportunities a formidable challenge. This predicament is primarily attributed to the difficulty in distinguishing real profit signal patterns amidst a plethora of mixed, noisy data. In response to these complexities, we propose a Multi-Scale Temporal Memory Learning and Efficient Debiasing (MTMD) model. This innovative approach encompasses the creation of a learnable embedding coupled with external attention, serving as a memory module through self-similarity. It aims to mitigate noise interference and bolster temporal consistency within the model. The MTMD model adeptly amalgamates comprehensive local data at each timestamp while concurrently focusing on salient historical patterns on a global scale. Furthermore, the incorporation of a graph network, tailored to assimilate global and local information, facilitates the adaptive fusion of heterogeneous multi-scale data. Rigorous ablation studies and experimental evaluations affirm that the MTMD model surpasses contemporary state-of-the-art methodologies by a substantial margin in benchmark datasets. The source code can be found at https://github.com/MingjieWang0606/MDMT-Public.

As large language models (LLMs) increasingly tackle complex reasoning tasks, test-time scaling has become critical for enhancing capabilities. However, in agentic scenarios with frequent tool calls, the traditional generation-length-based definition breaks down: tool latency decouples inference time from generation length. We propose Timely Machine, redefining test-time as wall-clock time, where models dynamically adjust strategies based on time budgets. We introduce Timely-Eval, a benchmark spanning high-frequency tool calls, low-frequency tool calls, and time-constrained reasoning. By varying tool latency, we find smaller models excel with fast feedback through more interactions, while larger models dominate high-latency settings via superior interaction quality. Moreover, existing models fail to adapt reasoning to time budgets. We propose Timely-RL to address this gap. After cold-start supervised fine-tuning, we use reinforcement learning to enhance temporal planning. Timely-RL improves time budget awareness and consistently boosts performance across Timely-Eval. We hope our work offers a new perspective on test-time scaling for the agentic era.

In this study, we present a technique that spans multi-scale views (global scale -- meaning brain network-level and local scale -- examining each individual ROI that constitutes the network) applied to resting-state fMRI volumes. Deep learning based classification is utilized in understanding neurodegeneration. The novelty of the proposed approach lies in utilizing two extreme scales of analysis. One branch considers the entire network within graph-analysis framework. Concurrently, the second branch scrutinizes each ROI within a network independently, focusing on evolution of dynamics. For each subject, graph-based approach employs partial correlation to profile the subject in a single graph where each ROI is a node, providing insights into differences in levels of participation. In contrast, non-linear analysis employs recurrence plots to profile a subject as a multichannel 2D image, revealing distinctions in underlying dynamics. The proposed approach is employed for classification of a cohort of 50 healthy control (HC) and 50 Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI), sourced from ADNI dataset. Results point to: (1) reduced activity in ROIs such as PCC in MCI (2) greater activity in occipital in MCI, which is not seen in HC (3) when analysed for dynamics, all ROIs in MCI show greater predictability in time-series.

Stream networks, a unique class of spatiotemporal graphs, exhibit complex directional flow constraints and evolving dependencies, making uncertainty quantification a critical yet challenging task. Traditional conformal prediction methods struggle in this setting due to the need for joint predictions across multiple interdependent locations and the intricate spatio-temporal dependencies inherent in stream networks. Existing approaches either neglect dependencies, leading to overly conservative predictions, or rely solely on data-driven estimations, failing to capture the rich topological structure of the network. To address these challenges, we propose Spatio-Temporal Adaptive Conformal Inference (STACI), a novel framework that integrates network topology and temporal dynamics into the conformal prediction framework. STACI introduces a topology-aware nonconformity score that respects directional flow constraints and dynamically adjusts prediction sets to account for temporal distributional shifts. We provide theoretical guarantees on the validity of our approach and demonstrate its superior performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Our results show that STACI effectively balances prediction efficiency and coverage, outperforming existing conformal prediction methods for stream networks.

Developing autonomous agents that can interact with changing environments is an open challenge in machine learning. Robustness is particularly important in these settings as agents are often fit offline on expert demonstrations but deployed online where they must generalize to the closed feedback loop within the environment. In this work, we explore the application of recurrent neural networks to tasks of this nature and understand how a parameterization of their recurrent connectivity influences robustness in closed-loop settings. Specifically, we represent the recurrent connectivity as a function of rank and sparsity and show both theoretically and empirically that modulating these two variables has desirable effects on network dynamics. The proposed low-rank, sparse connectivity induces an interpretable prior on the network that proves to be most amenable for a class of models known as closed-form continuous-time neural networks (CfCs). We find that CfCs with fewer parameters can outperform their full-rank, fully-connected counterparts in the online setting under distribution shift. This yields memory-efficient and robust agents while opening a new perspective on how we can modulate network dynamics through connectivity.

Future link prediction is a fundamental challenge in various real-world dynamic systems. To address this, numerous temporal graph neural networks (temporal GNNs) and benchmark datasets have been developed. However, these datasets often feature excessive repeated edges and lack complex sequential dynamics, a key characteristic inherent in many real-world applications such as recommender systems and ``Who-To-Follow'' on social networks. This oversight has led existing methods to inadvertently downplay the importance of learning sequential dynamics, focusing primarily on predicting repeated edges. In this study, we demonstrate that existing methods, such as GraphMixer and DyGFormer, are inherently incapable of learning simple sequential dynamics, such as ``a user who has followed OpenAI and Anthropic is more likely to follow AI at Meta next.'' Motivated by this issue, we introduce the Temporal Graph Benchmark with Sequential Dynamics (TGB-Seq), a new benchmark carefully curated to minimize repeated edges, challenging models to learn sequential dynamics and generalize to unseen edges. TGB-Seq comprises large real-world datasets spanning diverse domains, including e-commerce interactions, movie ratings, business reviews, social networks, citation networks and web link networks. Benchmarking experiments reveal that current methods usually suffer significant performance degradation and incur substantial training costs on TGB-Seq, posing new challenges and opportunities for future research. TGB-Seq datasets, leaderboards, and example codes are available at https://tgb-seq.github.io/.

Predicting the bandwidth utilization on network links can be extremely useful for detecting congestion in order to correct them before they occur. In this paper, we present a solution to predict the bandwidth utilization between different network links with a very high accuracy. A simulated network is created to collect data related to the performance of the network links on every interface. These data are processed and expanded with feature engineering in order to create a training set. We evaluate and compare three types of machine learning algorithms, namely ARIMA (AutoRegressive Integrated Moving Average), MLP (Multi Layer Perceptron) and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory), in order to predict the future bandwidth consumption. The LSTM outperforms ARIMA and MLP with very accurate predictions, rarely exceeding a 3\% error (40\% for ARIMA and 20\% for the MLP). We then show that the proposed solution can be used in real time with a reaction managed by a Software-Defined Networking (SDN) platform.

The rapid evolution of video generation has enabled models to simulate complex physical dynamics and long-horizon causalities, positioning them as potential world simulators. However, a critical gap still remains between the theoretical capacity for world simulation and the heavy computational costs of spatiotemporal modeling. To address this, we comprehensively and systematically review video generation frameworks and techniques that consider efficiency as a crucial requirement for practical world modeling. We introduce a novel taxonomy in three dimensions: efficient modeling paradigms, efficient network architectures, and efficient inference algorithms. We further show that bridging this efficiency gap directly empowers interactive applications such as autonomous driving, embodied AI, and game simulation. Finally, we identify emerging research frontiers in efficient video-based world modeling, arguing that efficiency is a fundamental prerequisite for evolving video generators into general-purpose, real-time, and robust world simulators.

Recent years have witnessed Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) gaining attention for their ultra-low energy consumption and high biological plausibility compared with traditional Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs). Despite their distinguished properties, the application of SNNs in the computationally intensive field of image generation is still under exploration. In this paper, we propose the Spiking Diffusion Models (SDMs), an innovative family of SNN-based generative models that excel in producing high-quality samples with significantly reduced energy consumption. In particular, we propose a Temporal-wise Spiking Mechanism (TSM) that allows SNNs to capture more temporal features from a bio-plasticity perspective. In addition, we propose a threshold-guided strategy that can further improve the performances by up to 16.7% without any additional training. We also make the first attempt to use the ANN-SNN approach for SNN-based generation tasks. Extensive experimental results reveal that our approach not only exhibits comparable performance to its ANN counterpart with few spiking time steps, but also outperforms previous SNN-based generative models by a large margin. Moreover, we also demonstrate the high-quality generation ability of SDM on large-scale datasets, e.g., LSUN bedroom. This development marks a pivotal advancement in the capabilities of SNN-based generation, paving the way for future research avenues to realize low-energy and low-latency generative applications. Our code is available at https://github.com/AndyCao1125/SDM.

Temporal Point Processes (TPP) are probabilistic generative frameworks. They model discrete event sequences localized in continuous time. Generally, real-life events reveal descriptive information, known as marks. Marked TPPs model time and marks of the event together for practical relevance. Conditioned on past events, marked TPPs aim to learn the joint distribution of the time and the mark of the next event. For simplicity, conditionally independent TPP models assume time and marks are independent given event history. They factorize the conditional joint distribution of time and mark into the product of individual conditional distributions. This structural limitation in the design of TPP models hurt the predictive performance on entangled time and mark interactions. In this work, we model the conditional inter-dependence of time and mark to overcome the limitations of conditionally independent models. We construct a multivariate TPP conditioning the time distribution on the current event mark in addition to past events. Besides the conventional intensity-based models for conditional joint distribution, we also draw on flexible intensity-free TPP models from the literature. The proposed TPP models outperform conditionally independent and dependent models in standard prediction tasks. Our experimentation on various datasets with multiple evaluation metrics highlights the merit of the proposed approach.

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

The precise timing of spikes emitted by neurons plays a crucial role in shaping the response of efferent biological neurons. This temporal dimension of neural activity holds significant importance in understanding information processing in neurobiology, especially for the performance of neuromorphic hardware, such as event-based cameras. Nonetheless, many artificial neural models disregard this critical temporal dimension of neural activity. In this study, we present a model designed to efficiently detect temporal spiking motifs using a layer of spiking neurons equipped with heterogeneous synaptic delays. Our model capitalizes on the diverse synaptic delays present on the dendritic tree, enabling specific arrangements of temporally precise synaptic inputs to synchronize upon reaching the basal dendritic tree. We formalize this process as a time-invariant logistic regression, which can be trained using labeled data. To demonstrate its practical efficacy, we apply the model to naturalistic videos transformed into event streams, simulating the output of the biological retina or event-based cameras. To evaluate the robustness of the model in detecting visual motion, we conduct experiments by selectively pruning weights and demonstrate that the model remains efficient even under significantly reduced workloads. In conclusion, by providing a comprehensive, event-driven computational building block, the incorporation of heterogeneous delays has the potential to greatly improve the performance of future spiking neural network algorithms, particularly in the context of neuromorphic chips.

On a variety of tasks, the performance of neural networks predictably improves with training time, dataset size and model size across many orders of magnitude. This phenomenon is known as a neural scaling law. Of fundamental importance is the compute-optimal scaling law, which reports the performance as a function of units of compute when choosing model sizes optimally. We analyze a random feature model trained with gradient descent as a solvable model of network training and generalization. This reproduces many observations about neural scaling laws. First, our model makes a prediction about why the scaling of performance with training time and with model size have different power law exponents. Consequently, the theory predicts an asymmetric compute-optimal scaling rule where the number of training steps are increased faster than model parameters, consistent with recent empirical observations. Second, it has been observed that early in training, networks converge to their infinite-width dynamics at a rate 1/width but at late time exhibit a rate width^{-c}, where c depends on the structure of the architecture and task. We show that our model exhibits this behavior. Lastly, our theory shows how the gap between training and test loss can gradually build up over time due to repeated reuse of data.

Graphs have often been used to answer questions about the interaction between real-world entities by taking advantage of their capacity to represent complex topologies. Complex networks are known to be graphs that capture such non-trivial topologies; they are able to represent human phenomena such as epidemic processes, the dynamics of populations, and the urbanization of cities. The investigation of complex networks has been extrapolated to many fields of science, with particular emphasis on computing techniques, including artificial intelligence. In such a case, the analysis of the interaction between entities of interest is transposed to the internal learning of algorithms, a paradigm whose investigation is able to expand the state of the art in Computer Science. By exploring this paradigm, this thesis puts together complex networks and machine learning techniques to improve the understanding of the human phenomena observed in pandemics, pendular migration, and street networks. Accordingly, we contribute with: (i) a new neural network architecture capable of modeling dynamic processes observed in spatial and temporal data with applications in epidemics propagation, weather forecasting, and patient monitoring in intensive care units; (ii) a machine-learning methodology for analyzing and predicting links in the scope of human mobility between all the cities of Brazil; and, (iii) techniques for identifying inconsistencies in the urban planning of cities while tracking the most influential vertices, with applications over Brazilian and worldwide cities. We obtained results sustained by sound evidence of advances to the state of the art in artificial intelligence, rigorous formalisms, and ample experimentation. Our findings rely upon real-world applications in a range of domains, demonstrating the applicability of our methodologies.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

Real-time energy forecasting on edge devices represents a major challenge for smart grid optimization and intelligent buildings. We present LAD-BNet (Lag-Aware Dual-Branch Network), an innovative neural architecture optimized for edge inference with Google Coral TPU. Our hybrid approach combines a branch dedicated to explicit exploitation of temporal lags with a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) featuring dilated convolutions, enabling simultaneous capture of short and long-term dependencies. Tested on real energy consumption data with 10-minute temporal resolution, LAD-BNet achieves 14.49% MAPE at 1-hour horizon with only 18ms inference time on Edge TPU, representing an 8-12 x acceleration compared to CPU. The multi-scale architecture enables predictions up to 12 hours with controlled performance degradation. Our model demonstrates a 2.39% improvement over LSTM baselines and 3.04% over pure TCN architectures, while maintaining a 180MB memory footprint suitable for embedded device constraints. These results pave the way for industrial applications in real-time energy optimization, demand management, and operational planning.

Machine learning architectures, including transformers and recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have revolutionized forecasting in applications ranging from text processing to extreme weather. Notably, advanced network architectures, tuned for applications such as natural language processing, are transferable to other tasks such as spatiotemporal forecasting tasks. However, there is a scarcity of ablation studies to illustrate the key components that enable this forecasting accuracy. The absence of such studies, although explainable due to the associated computational cost, intensifies the belief that these models ought to be considered as black boxes. In this work, we decompose the key architectural components of the most powerful neural architectures, namely gating and recurrence in RNNs, and attention mechanisms in transformers. Then, we synthesize and build novel hybrid architectures from the standard blocks, performing ablation studies to identify which mechanisms are effective for each task. The importance of considering these components as hyper-parameters that can augment the standard architectures is exhibited on various forecasting datasets, from the spatiotemporal chaotic dynamics of the multiscale Lorenz 96 system, the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation, as well as standard real world time-series benchmarks. A key finding is that neural gating and attention improves the performance of all standard RNNs in most tasks, while the addition of a notion of recurrence in transformers is detrimental. Furthermore, our study reveals that a novel, sparsely used, architecture which integrates Recurrent Highway Networks with neural gating and attention mechanisms, emerges as the best performing architecture in high-dimensional spatiotemporal forecasting of dynamical systems.

Data attribution methods trace model behavior back to its training dataset, offering an effective approach to better understand ''black-box'' neural networks. While prior research has established quantifiable links between model output and training data in diverse settings, interpreting diffusion model outputs in relation to training samples remains underexplored. In particular, diffusion models operate over a sequence of timesteps instead of instantaneous input-output relationships in previous contexts, posing a significant challenge to extend existing frameworks to diffusion models directly. Notably, we present Diffusion-TracIn that incorporates this temporal dynamics and observe that samples' loss gradient norms are highly dependent on timestep. This trend leads to a prominent bias in influence estimation, and is particularly noticeable for samples trained on large-norm-inducing timesteps, causing them to be generally influential. To mitigate this effect, we introduce Diffusion-ReTrac as a re-normalized adaptation that enables the retrieval of training samples more targeted to the test sample of interest, facilitating a localized measurement of influence and considerably more intuitive visualization. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through various evaluation metrics and auxiliary tasks, reducing the amount of generally influential samples to 1{3} of its original quantity.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

Representation learning methods have revolutionized machine learning on networks by converting discrete network structures into continuous domains. However, dynamic networks that evolve over time pose new challenges. To address this, dynamic representation learning methods have gained attention, offering benefits like reduced learning time and improved accuracy by utilizing temporal information. T-batching is a valuable technique for training dynamic network models that reduces training time while preserving vital conditions for accurate modeling. However, we have identified a limitation in the training loss function used with t-batching. Through mathematical analysis, we propose two alternative loss functions that overcome these issues, resulting in enhanced training performance. We extensively evaluate the proposed loss functions on synthetic and real-world dynamic networks. The results consistently demonstrate superior performance compared to the original loss function. Notably, in a real-world network characterized by diverse user interaction histories, the proposed loss functions achieved more than 26.9% enhancement in Mean Reciprocal Rank (MRR) and more than 11.8% improvement in Recall@10. These findings underscore the efficacy of the proposed loss functions in dynamic network modeling.

Modeling multivariate time series has long been a subject that has attracted researchers from a diverse range of fields including economics, finance, and traffic. A basic assumption behind multivariate time series forecasting is that its variables depend on one another but, upon looking closely, it is fair to say that existing methods fail to fully exploit latent spatial dependencies between pairs of variables. In recent years, meanwhile, graph neural networks (GNNs) have shown high capability in handling relational dependencies. GNNs require well-defined graph structures for information propagation which means they cannot be applied directly for multivariate time series where the dependencies are not known in advance. In this paper, we propose a general graph neural network framework designed specifically for multivariate time series data. Our approach automatically extracts the uni-directed relations among variables through a graph learning module, into which external knowledge like variable attributes can be easily integrated. A novel mix-hop propagation layer and a dilated inception layer are further proposed to capture the spatial and temporal dependencies within the time series. The graph learning, graph convolution, and temporal convolution modules are jointly learned in an end-to-end framework. Experimental results show that our proposed model outperforms the state-of-the-art baseline methods on 3 of 4 benchmark datasets and achieves on-par performance with other approaches on two traffic datasets which provide extra structural information.

We present STanHop-Net (Sparse Tandem Hopfield Network) for multivariate time series prediction with memory-enhanced capabilities. At the heart of our approach is STanHop, a novel Hopfield-based neural network block, which sparsely learns and stores both temporal and cross-series representations in a data-dependent fashion. In essence, STanHop sequentially learn temporal representation and cross-series representation using two tandem sparse Hopfield layers. In addition, StanHop incorporates two additional external memory modules: a Plug-and-Play module and a Tune-and-Play module for train-less and task-aware memory-enhancements, respectively. They allow StanHop-Net to swiftly respond to certain sudden events. Methodologically, we construct the StanHop-Net by stacking STanHop blocks in a hierarchical fashion, enabling multi-resolution feature extraction with resolution-specific sparsity. Theoretically, we introduce a sparse extension of the modern Hopfield model (Generalized Sparse Modern Hopfield Model) and show that it endows a tighter memory retrieval error compared to the dense counterpart without sacrificing memory capacity. Empirically, we validate the efficacy of our framework on both synthetic and real-world settings.

Cooperation enables teams to solve complex problems that one individual alone cannot address. In science, collaborative teams have become the predominant way through which progress is achieved. These scientific collaborations arise though various mechanisms, among which interactions at conferences. The Scialog conferences, which comprise a series of small, interdisciplinary scientific workshops held over several years, are an ideal laboratory to study the network mechanisms leading to team formation. Building on existing work studying team formation from a pairwise perspective, we present a higher-order network perspective generalizing this framework. We provide a formalization for the notion of group interaction over time by defining a taxonomy of synchronous and asynchronous group interactions. We apply this framework to the Scialog case study using a stepwise selection logistic model and find evidence that all interaction types described in our taxonomy are highly significant for team formation. This higher-order network perspective provides a new framework for the study of collective behavior and group formation.

Our understanding of the temporal dynamics of the Earth's surface has been advanced by deep vision models, which often require lots of labeled multi-temporal images for training. However, collecting, preprocessing, and annotating multi-temporal remote sensing images at scale is non-trivial since it is expensive and knowledge-intensive. In this paper, we present change data generators based on generative models, which are cheap and automatic, alleviating these data problems. Our main idea is to simulate a stochastic change process over time. We describe the stochastic change process as a probabilistic graphical model (GPCM), which factorizes the complex simulation problem into two more tractable sub-problems, i.e., change event simulation and semantic change synthesis. To solve these two problems, we present Changen2, a GPCM with a resolution-scalable diffusion transformer which can generate time series of images and their semantic and change labels from labeled or unlabeled single-temporal images. Changen2 is a generative change foundation model that can be trained at scale via self-supervision, and can produce change supervisory signals from unlabeled single-temporal images. Unlike existing foundation models, Changen2 synthesizes change data to train task-specific foundation models for change detection. The resulting model possesses inherent zero-shot change detection capabilities and excellent transferability. Experiments suggest Changen2 has superior spatiotemporal scalability, e.g., Changen2 model trained on 256^2 pixel single-temporal images can yield time series of any length and resolutions of 1,024^2 pixels. Changen2 pre-trained models exhibit superior zero-shot performance (narrowing the performance gap to 3% on LEVIR-CD and approximately 10% on both S2Looking and SECOND, compared to fully supervised counterparts) and transferability across multiple types of change tasks.

Generating new molecules is fundamental to advancing critical applications such as drug discovery and material synthesis. Flows can generate molecules effectively by inverting the encoding process, however, existing flow models either require artifactual dequantization or specific node/edge orderings, lack desiderata such as permutation invariance, or induce discrepancy between the encoding and the decoding steps that necessitates post hoc validity correction. We circumvent these issues with novel continuous normalizing E(3)-equivariant flows, based on a system of node ODEs coupled as a graph PDE, that repeatedly reconcile locally toward globally aligned densities. Our models can be cast as message-passing temporal networks, and result in superlative performance on the tasks of density estimation and molecular generation. In particular, our generated samples achieve state-of-the-art on both the standard QM9 and ZINC250K benchmarks.

Learning to simulate complex physical systems from data has emerged as a promising way to overcome the limitations of traditional numerical solvers, which often require prohibitive computational costs for high-fidelity solutions. Recent Graph Neural Simulators (GNSs) accelerate simulations by learning dynamics on graph-structured data, yet often struggle to capture long-range interactions and suffer from error accumulation under autoregressive rollouts. To address these challenges, we propose Information-preserving Graph Neural Simulators (IGNS), a graph-based neural simulator built on the principles of Hamiltonian dynamics. This structure guarantees preservation of information across the graph, while extending to port-Hamiltonian systems allows the model to capture a broader class of dynamics, including non-conservative effects. IGNS further incorporates a warmup phase to initialize global context, geometric encoding to handle irregular meshes, and a multi-step training objective that facilitates PDE matching, where the trajectory produced by integrating the port-Hamiltonian core aligns with the ground-truth trajectory, thereby reducing rollout error. To evaluate these properties systematically, we introduce new benchmarks that target long-range dependencies and challenging external forcing scenarios. Across all tasks, IGNS consistently outperforms state-of-the-art GNSs, achieving higher accuracy and stability under challenging and complex dynamical systems. Our project page: https://thobotics.github.io/neural_pde_matching.

Memory-based Dynamic Graph Neural Networks (MDGNNs) are a family of dynamic graph neural networks that leverage a memory module to extract, distill, and memorize long-term temporal dependencies, leading to superior performance compared to memory-less counterparts. However, training MDGNNs faces the challenge of handling entangled temporal and structural dependencies, requiring sequential and chronological processing of data sequences to capture accurate temporal patterns. During the batch training, the temporal data points within the same batch will be processed in parallel, while their temporal dependencies are neglected. This issue is referred to as temporal discontinuity and restricts the effective temporal batch size, limiting data parallelism and reducing MDGNNs' flexibility in industrial applications. This paper studies the efficient training of MDGNNs at scale, focusing on the temporal discontinuity in training MDGNNs with large temporal batch sizes. We first conduct a theoretical study on the impact of temporal batch size on the convergence of MDGNN training. Based on the analysis, we propose PRES, an iterative prediction-correction scheme combined with a memory coherence learning objective to mitigate the effect of temporal discontinuity, enabling MDGNNs to be trained with significantly larger temporal batches without sacrificing generalization performance. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach enables up to a 4x larger temporal batch (3.4x speed-up) during MDGNN training.

In this paper, we introduce TimeGPT, the first foundation model for time series, capable of generating accurate predictions for diverse datasets not seen during training. We evaluate our pre-trained model against established statistical, machine learning, and deep learning methods, demonstrating that TimeGPT zero-shot inference excels in performance, efficiency, and simplicity. Our study provides compelling evidence that insights from other domains of artificial intelligence can be effectively applied to time series analysis. We conclude that large-scale time series models offer an exciting opportunity to democratize access to precise predictions and reduce uncertainty by leveraging the capabilities of contemporary advancements in deep learning.

Forecasting multiple future events within a given time horizon is essential for applications in finance, retail, social networks, and healthcare. Marked Temporal Point Processes (MTPP) provide a principled framework to model both the timing and labels of events. However, most existing research focuses on predicting only the next event, leaving long-horizon forecasting largely underexplored. To address this gap, we introduce HoTPP, the first benchmark specifically designed to rigorously evaluate long-horizon predictions. We identify shortcomings in widely used evaluation metrics, propose a theoretically grounded T-mAP metric, present strong statistical baselines, and offer efficient implementations of popular models. Our empirical results demonstrate that modern MTPP approaches often underperform simple statistical baselines. Furthermore, we analyze the diversity of predicted sequences and find that most methods exhibit mode collapse. Finally, we analyze the impact of autoregression and intensity-based losses on prediction quality, and outline promising directions for future research. The HoTPP source code, hyperparameters, and full evaluation results are available at GitHub.

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM-paper/.

The R-Learner is a powerful, theoretically-grounded framework for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects, prized for its robustness to nuisance model errors. However, its application to network data, where causal heterogeneity is often graph-dependent, presents a critical challenge to its core assumption of a well-specified final-stage model. In this paper, we conduct a large-scale empirical study to systematically dissect the R-Learner framework on graphs. We provide the first rigorous evidence that the primary driver of performance is the inductive bias of the final-stage CATE estimator, an effect that dominates the choice of nuisance models. Our central finding is the quantification of a catastrophic "representation bottleneck": we prove with overwhelming statistical significance (p < 0.001) that R-Learners with a graph-blind final stage fail completely (MSE > 4.0), even when paired with powerful GNN nuisance models. Conversely, our proposed end-to-end Graph R-Learner succeeds and significantly outperforms a strong, non-DML GNN T-Learner baseline. Furthermore, we identify and provide a mechanistic explanation for a subtle, topology-dependent "nuisance bottleneck," linking it to GNN over-squashing via a targeted "Hub-Periphery Trade-off" analysis. Our findings are validated across diverse synthetic and semi-synthetic benchmarks. We release our code as a reproducible benchmark to facilitate future research on this critical "final-stage bottleneck."

With the overwhelming amount of data available both on and offline today, recommender systems have become much needed to help users find items tailored to their interests. When social network information exists there are methods that utilize this information to make better recommendations, however the methods are often clunky with complex architectures and training procedures. Furthermore many of the existing methods utilize graph neural networks which are notoriously difficult to train. To address this, we propose Socially-aware Temporally caUsal Decoder recommender sYstems (STUDY). STUDY does joint inference over groups of users who are adjacent in the social network graph using a single forward pass of a modified transformer decoder network. We test our method in a school-based educational content setting, using classroom structure to define social networks. Our method outperforms both social and sequential methods while maintaining the design simplicity of a single homogeneous network that models all interactions in the data. We also carry out ablation studies to understand the drivers of our performance gains and find that our model depends on leveraging a social network structure that effectively models the similarities in user behavior.

We rethink test-time scaling laws from a practical efficiency perspective, revealing that the effectiveness of smaller models is significantly overestimated. Prior work, grounded in compute-optimality, overlooks critical memory access bottlenecks introduced by inference-time strategies (e.g., Best-of-N, long CoTs). Our holistic analysis, spanning models from 0.6B to 32B parameters, reveals a new Kinetics Scaling Law that better guides resource allocation by incorporating both computation and memory access costs. Kinetics Scaling Law suggests that test-time compute is more effective when used on models above a threshold than smaller ones. A key reason is that in TTS, attention, rather than parameter count, emerges as the dominant cost factor. Motivated by this, we propose a new scaling paradigm centered on sparse attention, which lowers per-token cost and enables longer generations and more parallel samples within the same resource budget. Empirically, we show that sparse attention models consistently outperform dense counterparts, achieving over 60 points gains in low-cost regimes and over 5 points gains in high-cost regimes for problem-solving accuracy on AIME, encompassing evaluations on state-of-the-art MoEs. These results suggest that sparse attention is essential for realizing the full potential of test-time scaling because, unlike training, where parameter scaling saturates, test-time accuracy continues to improve through increased generation. The code is available at https://github.com/Infini-AI-Lab/Kinetics.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) offer strong zero-shot forecasting via large-scale pre-training, yet fine-tuning remains critical for boosting performance in domains with limited public data. With the growing number of TSFMs, efficiently identifying the best model for downstream fine-tuning becomes increasingly challenging. In this work, we introduce TimeTic, a transferability estimation framework that recasts model selection as an in-context-learning problem: given observations on known (source) datasets, it predicts how a TSFM will perform after fine-tuning on a downstream (target) dataset. TimeTic flexibly organizes the observed model-data relationships as contextual information, allowing it to adapt seamlessly to various test-time scenarios. Leveraging the natural tabular structure formed by dataset meta-features, model characteristics, and fine-tuned performance, we employ tabular foundation models to serve as in-context learners. We further introduce a novel model characterization based on entropy evolution across model layers, capturing embedding-space distinctions and enabling TimeTic to generalize across arbitrary model sets. We establish a comprehensive benchmark for transferability estimation including 10 datasets, 10 foundation models, and 3 forecasting tasks. On this benchmark, TimeTic's estimation demonstrates strong alignment with actual fine-tuned performance for previously unseen datasets, achieving a mean rank correlation of approximately 0.6 and a 30% improvement compared to using zero-shot performance as the transferability score.

We present an agentic, autonomous graph expansion framework that iteratively structures and refines knowledge in situ. Unlike conventional knowledge graph construction methods relying on static extraction or single-pass learning, our approach couples a reasoning-native large language model with a continually updated graph representation. At each step, the system actively generates new concepts and relationships, merges them into a global graph, and formulates subsequent prompts based on its evolving structure. Through this feedback-driven loop, the model organizes information into a scale-free network characterized by hub formation, stable modularity, and bridging nodes that link disparate knowledge clusters. Over hundreds of iterations, new nodes and edges continue to appear without saturating, while centrality measures and shortest path distributions evolve to yield increasingly distributed connectivity. Our analysis reveals emergent patterns, such as the rise of highly connected 'hub' concepts and the shifting influence of 'bridge' nodes, indicating that agentic, self-reinforcing graph construction can yield open-ended, coherent knowledge structures. Applied to materials design problems, we present compositional reasoning experiments by extracting node-specific and synergy-level principles to foster genuinely novel knowledge synthesis, yielding cross-domain ideas that transcend rote summarization and strengthen the framework's potential for open-ended scientific discovery. We discuss other applications in scientific discovery and outline future directions for enhancing scalability and interpretability.

Generative Agent-Based Modeling (GABM) is an emerging simulation paradigm that combines the reasoning abilities of Large Language Models with traditional Agent-Based Modeling to replicate complex social behaviors, including interactions on social media. While prior work has focused on localized phenomena such as opinion formation and information spread, its potential to capture global network dynamics remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by analyzing GABM-based social media simulations through the lens of the Friendship Paradox (FP), a counterintuitive phenomenon where individuals, on average, have fewer friends than their friends. We propose a GABM framework for social media simulations, featuring generative agents that emulate real users with distinct personalities and interests. Using Twitter datasets on the US 2020 Election and the QAnon conspiracy, we show that the FP emerges naturally in GABM simulations. Consistent with real-world observations, the simulations unveil a hierarchical structure, where agents preferentially connect with others displaying higher activity or influence. Additionally, we find that infrequent connections primarily drive the FP, reflecting patterns in real networks. These findings validate GABM as a robust tool for modeling global social media phenomena and highlight its potential for advancing social science by enabling nuanced analysis of user behavior.

Foundation models (FMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their success has not yet translated to time series forecasting. Existing time series foundation models (TSFMs), often based on transformer variants, struggle with generalization across varying context and target lengths, lack adaptability to different sampling rates, and are computationally inefficient. We introduce FlowState, a novel TSFM architecture that addresses these challenges through two key innovations: a state space model (SSM) based encoder and a functional basis decoder. This design enables continuous-time modeling and dynamic time-scale adjustment, allowing FlowState to inherently generalize across all possible temporal resolutions, and dynamically adjust the forecasting horizons. In contrast to other state-of-the-art TSFMs, which require training data across all possible sampling rates to memorize patterns at each scale, FlowState inherently adapts its internal dynamics to the input scale, enabling smaller models, reduced data requirements, and improved efficiency. We further propose an efficient pretraining strategy that improves robustness and accelerates training. Despite being the smallest model, FlowState outperforms all other models and is state-of-the-art for the GIFT-ZS and the Chronos-ZS benchmarks. Ablation studies confirm the effectiveness of its components, and we demonstrate its unique ability to adapt online to varying input sampling rates.

In this paper, we present LiGNN, a deployed large-scale Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) Framework. We share our insight on developing and deployment of GNNs at large scale at LinkedIn. We present a set of algorithmic improvements to the quality of GNN representation learning including temporal graph architectures with long term losses, effective cold start solutions via graph densification, ID embeddings and multi-hop neighbor sampling. We explain how we built and sped up by 7x our large-scale training on LinkedIn graphs with adaptive sampling of neighbors, grouping and slicing of training data batches, specialized shared-memory queue and local gradient optimization. We summarize our deployment lessons and learnings gathered from A/B test experiments. The techniques presented in this work have contributed to an approximate relative improvements of 1% of Job application hearing back rate, 2% Ads CTR lift, 0.5% of Feed engaged daily active users, 0.2% session lift and 0.1% weekly active user lift from people recommendation. We believe that this work can provide practical solutions and insights for engineers who are interested in applying Graph neural networks at large scale.

Temporal knowledge graphs represent temporal facts (s,p,o,tau) relating a subject s and an object o via a relation label p at time tau, where tau could be a time point or time interval. Temporal knowledge graphs may exhibit static temporal patterns at distinct points in time and dynamic temporal patterns between different timestamps. In order to learn a rich set of static and dynamic temporal patterns and apply them for inference, several embedding approaches have been suggested in the literature. However, as most of them resort to single underlying embedding spaces, their capability to model all kinds of temporal patterns was severely limited by having to adhere to the geometric property of their one embedding space. We lift this limitation by an embedding approach that maps temporal facts into a product space of several heterogeneous geometric subspaces with distinct geometric properties, i.e.\ Complex, Dual, and Split-complex spaces. In addition, we propose a temporal-geometric attention mechanism to integrate information from different geometric subspaces conveniently according to the captured relational and temporal information. Experimental results on standard temporal benchmark datasets favorably evaluate our approach against state-of-the-art models.

Temporal Point Processes (TPPs) serve as the standard mathematical framework for modeling asynchronous event sequences in continuous time. However, classical TPP models are often constrained by strong assumptions, limiting their ability to capture complex real-world event dynamics. To overcome this limitation, researchers have proposed Neural TPPs, which leverage neural network parametrizations to offer more flexible and efficient modeling. While recent studies demonstrate the effectiveness of Neural TPPs, they often lack a unified setup, relying on different baselines, datasets, and experimental configurations. This makes it challenging to identify the key factors driving improvements in predictive accuracy, hindering research progress. To bridge this gap, we present a comprehensive large-scale experimental study that systematically evaluates the predictive accuracy of state-of-the-art neural TPP models. Our study encompasses multiple real-world and synthetic event sequence datasets, following a carefully designed unified setup. We thoroughly investigate the influence of major architectural components such as event encoding, history encoder, and decoder parametrization on both time and mark prediction tasks. Additionally, we delve into the less explored area of probabilistic calibration for neural TPP models. By analyzing our results, we draw insightful conclusions regarding the significance of history size and the impact of architectural components on predictive accuracy. Furthermore, we shed light on the miscalibration of mark distributions in neural TPP models. Our study aims to provide valuable insights into the performance and characteristics of neural TPP models, contributing to a better understanding of their strengths and limitations.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

Dynamic graph clustering aims to detect and track time-varying clusters in dynamic graphs, revealing the evolutionary mechanisms of complex real-world dynamic systems. Matrix factorization-based methods are promising approaches for this task; however, these methods often struggle with scalability and can be time-consuming when applied to large-scale dynamic graphs. Moreover, they tend to lack robustness and are vulnerable to real-world noisy data. To address these issues, we make three key contributions. First, to improve scalability, we propose temporal separated matrix factorization, where a single matrix is divided into multiple smaller matrices for independent factorization, resulting in faster computation. Second, to improve robustness, we introduce bi-clustering regularization, which jointly optimizes graph embedding and clustering, thereby filtering out noisy features from the graph embeddings. Third, to further enhance effectiveness and efficiency, we propose selective embedding updating, where we update only the embeddings of dynamic nodes while the embeddings of static nodes are fixed among different timestamps. Experimental results on six synthetic and five real-world benchmarks demonstrate the scalability, robustness and effectiveness of our proposed method. Source code is available at https://github.com/Clearloveyuan/DyG-MF.

Graph neural networks are popular architectures for graph machine learning, based on iterative computation of node representations of an input graph through a series of invariant transformations. A large class of graph neural networks follow a standard message-passing paradigm: at every layer, each node state is updated based on an aggregate of messages from its neighborhood. In this work, we propose a novel framework for training graph neural networks, where every node is viewed as a player that can choose to either 'listen', 'broadcast', 'listen and broadcast', or to 'isolate'. The standard message propagation scheme can then be viewed as a special case of this framework where every node 'listens and broadcasts' to all neighbors. Our approach offers a more flexible and dynamic message-passing paradigm, where each node can determine its own strategy based on their state, effectively exploring the graph topology while learning. We provide a theoretical analysis of the new message-passing scheme which is further supported by an extensive empirical analysis on a synthetic dataset and on real-world datasets.

Network Architecture Search and specifically Regularized Evolution is a common way to refine the structure of a deep learning model.However, little is known about how models empirically evolve over time which has design implications for designing caching policies, refining the search algorithm for particular applications, and other important use cases.In this work, we algorithmically analyze and quantitatively characterize the patterns of model evolution for a set of models from the Candle project and the Nasbench-201 search space.We show how the evolution of the model structure is influenced by the regularized evolution algorithm. We describe how evolutionary patterns appear in distributed settings and opportunities for caching and improved scheduling. Lastly, we describe the conditions that affect when particular model architectures rise and fall in popularity based on their frequency of acting as a donor in a sliding window.

Graph attention networks (GATs) provide one of the best frameworks for learning node representations in relational data; but, existing variants such as Graph Attention Network (GAT) mainly operate on static graphs and rely on implicit temporal aggregation when applied to sequential data. In this paper, we introduce Electroencephalography-temporal Graph Attention Network (EEG-tGAT), a temporally augmented formulation of GATv2 that is tailored for affordance classification from interaction sequences. The proposed model incorporates temporal attention to modulate the contribution of different time segments and temporal dropout to regularize learning across temporally correlated observations. The design reflects the assumption that temporal dimensions in affordance data are not semantically uniform and that discriminative information may be unevenly distributed across time. Experimental results on affordance datasets show that EEG-tGAT achieves improved classification performance compared to GATv2. The observed gains helps to conclude that explicitly encoding temporal importance and enforcing temporal robustness introduce inductive biases that are much better aligned with the structure of affordance-driven interaction data. These findings show us that modest architectural changes to graph attention models can help one obtain consistent benefits when temporal relationships play a nontrivial role in the task.

Attention mechanisms have been widely used to capture long-range dependencies among nodes in Graph Transformers. Bottlenecked by the quadratic computational cost, attention mechanisms fail to scale in large graphs. Recent improvements in computational efficiency are mainly achieved by attention sparsification with random or heuristic-based graph subsampling, which falls short in data-dependent context reasoning. State space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness and efficiency in modeling long-range dependencies in sequential data. However, adapting SSMs to non-sequential graph data presents a notable challenge. In this work, we introduce Graph-Mamba, the first attempt to enhance long-range context modeling in graph networks by integrating a Mamba block with the input-dependent node selection mechanism. Specifically, we formulate graph-centric node prioritization and permutation strategies to enhance context-aware reasoning, leading to a substantial improvement in predictive performance. Extensive experiments on ten benchmark datasets demonstrate that Graph-Mamba outperforms state-of-the-art methods in long-range graph prediction tasks, with a fraction of the computational cost in both FLOPs and GPU memory consumption. The code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/bowang-lab/Graph-Mamba.

Time series are the primary data type used to record dynamic system measurements and generated in great volume by both physical sensors and online processes (virtual sensors). Time series analytics is therefore crucial to unlocking the wealth of information implicit in available data. With the recent advancements in graph neural networks (GNNs), there has been a surge in GNN-based approaches for time series analysis. These approaches can explicitly model inter-temporal and inter-variable relationships, which traditional and other deep neural network-based methods struggle to do. In this survey, we provide a comprehensive review of graph neural networks for time series analysis (GNN4TS), encompassing four fundamental dimensions: forecasting, classification, anomaly detection, and imputation. Our aim is to guide designers and practitioners to understand, build applications, and advance research of GNN4TS. At first, we provide a comprehensive task-oriented taxonomy of GNN4TS. Then, we present and discuss representative research works and introduce mainstream applications of GNN4TS. A comprehensive discussion of potential future research directions completes the survey. This survey, for the first time, brings together a vast array of knowledge on GNN-based time series research, highlighting foundations, practical applications, and opportunities of graph neural networks for time series analysis.

Behavior cloning is enjoying a resurgence in popularity as scaling both model and data sizes proves to provide a strong starting point for many tasks of interest. In this work, we introduce an open recipe for training a video game playing foundation model designed for inference in realtime on a consumer GPU. We release all data (8300+ hours of high quality human gameplay), training and inference code, and pretrained checkpoints under an open license. We show that our best model is capable of playing a variety of 3D video games at a level competitive with human play. We use this recipe to systematically examine the scaling laws of behavior cloning to understand how the model's performance and causal reasoning varies with model and data scale. We first show in a simple toy problem that, for some types of causal reasoning, increasing both the amount of training data and the depth of the network results in the model learning a more causal policy. We then systematically study how causality varies with the number of parameters (and depth) and training steps in scaled models of up to 1.2 billion parameters, and we find similar scaling results to what we observe in the toy problem.

Effective traffic prediction is a cornerstone of intelligent transportation systems, enabling precise forecasts of traffic flow, speed, and congestion. While traditional spatio-temporal graph neural networks (ST-GNNs) have achieved notable success in short-term traffic forecasting, their performance in long-term predictions remains limited. This challenge arises from over-squashing problem, where bottlenecks and limited receptive fields restrict information flow and hinder the modeling of global dependencies. To address these challenges, this study introduces a novel framework that incorporates virtual nodes, which are additional nodes added to the graph and connected to existing nodes, in order to aggregate information across the entire graph within a single GNN layer. Our proposed model incorporates virtual nodes by constructing a semi-adaptive adjacency matrix. This matrix integrates distance-based and adaptive adjacency matrices, allowing the model to leverage geographical information while also learning task-specific features from data. Experimental results demonstrate that the inclusion of virtual nodes significantly enhances long-term prediction accuracy while also improving layer-wise sensitivity to mitigate the over-squashing problem. Virtual nodes also offer enhanced explainability by focusing on key intersections and high-traffic areas, as shown by the visualization of their adjacency matrix weights on road network heat maps. Our advanced approach enhances the understanding and management of urban traffic systems, making it particularly well-suited for real-world applications.

Efforts to overcome catastrophic forgetting have primarily centered around developing more effective Continual Learning (CL) methods. In contrast, less attention was devoted to analyzing the role of network architecture design (e.g., network depth, width, and components) in contributing to CL. This paper seeks to bridge this gap between network architecture design and CL, and to present a holistic study on the impact of network architectures on CL. This work considers architecture design at the network scaling level, i.e., width and depth, and also at the network components, i.e., skip connections, global pooling layers, and down-sampling. In both cases, we first derive insights through systematically exploring how architectural designs affect CL. Then, grounded in these insights, we craft a specialized search space for CL and further propose a simple yet effective ArchCraft method to steer a CL-friendly architecture, namely, this method recrafts AlexNet/ResNet into AlexAC/ResAC. Experimental validation across various CL settings and scenarios demonstrates that improved architectures are parameter-efficient, achieving state-of-the-art performance of CL while being 86%, 61%, and 97% more compact in terms of parameters than the naive CL architecture in Task IL and Class IL. Code is available at https://github.com/byyx666/ArchCraft.

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

Mesh-based simulations are central to modeling complex physical systems in many disciplines across science and engineering. Mesh representations support powerful numerical integration methods and their resolution can be adapted to strike favorable trade-offs between accuracy and efficiency. However, high-dimensional scientific simulations are very expensive to run, and solvers and parameters must often be tuned individually to each system studied. Here we introduce MeshGraphNets, a framework for learning mesh-based simulations using graph neural networks. Our model can be trained to pass messages on a mesh graph and to adapt the mesh discretization during forward simulation. Our results show it can accurately predict the dynamics of a wide range of physical systems, including aerodynamics, structural mechanics, and cloth. The model's adaptivity supports learning resolution-independent dynamics and can scale to more complex state spaces at test time. Our method is also highly efficient, running 1-2 orders of magnitude faster than the simulation on which it is trained. Our approach broadens the range of problems on which neural network simulators can operate and promises to improve the efficiency of complex, scientific modeling tasks.

Social network simulation plays a crucial role in addressing various challenges within social science. It offers extensive applications such as state prediction, phenomena explanation, and policy-making support, among others. In this work, we harness the formidable human-like capabilities exhibited by large language models (LLMs) in sensing, reasoning, and behaving, and utilize these qualities to construct the S^3 system (short for Social network Simulation System). Adhering to the widely employed agent-based simulation paradigm, we employ prompt engineering and prompt tuning techniques to ensure that the agent's behavior closely emulates that of a genuine human within the social network. Specifically, we simulate three pivotal aspects: emotion, attitude, and interaction behaviors. By endowing the agent in the system with the ability to perceive the informational environment and emulate human actions, we observe the emergence of population-level phenomena, including the propagation of information, attitudes, and emotions. We conduct an evaluation encompassing two levels of simulation, employing real-world social network data. Encouragingly, the results demonstrate promising accuracy. This work represents an initial step in the realm of social network simulation empowered by LLM-based agents. We anticipate that our endeavors will serve as a source of inspiration for the development of simulation systems within, but not limited to, social science.

The new paradigm of test-time scaling has yielded remarkable breakthroughs in Large Language Models (LLMs) (e.g. reasoning models) and in generative vision models, allowing models to allocate additional computation during inference to effectively tackle increasingly complex problems. Despite the improvements of this approach, an important limitation emerges: the substantial increase in computation time makes the process slow and impractical for many applications. Given the success of this paradigm and its growing usage, we seek to preserve its benefits while eschewing the inference overhead. In this work we propose one solution to the critical problem of integrating test-time scaling knowledge into a model during post-training. Specifically, we replace reward guided test-time noise optimization in diffusion models with a Noise Hypernetwork that modulates initial input noise. We propose a theoretically grounded framework for learning this reward-tilted distribution for distilled generators, through a tractable noise-space objective that maintains fidelity to the base model while optimizing for desired characteristics. We show that our approach recovers a substantial portion of the quality gains from explicit test-time optimization at a fraction of the computational cost. Code is available at https://github.com/ExplainableML/HyperNoise

LWM-Temporal is a new member of the Large Wireless Models (LWM) family that targets the spatiotemporal nature of wireless channels. Designed as a task-agnostic foundation model, LWM-Temporal learns universal channel embeddings that capture mobility-induced evolution and are reusable across various downstream tasks. To achieve this objective, LWM-Temporal operates in the angle-delay-time domain and introduces Sparse Spatio-Temporal Attention (SSTA), a propagation-aligned attention mechanism that restricts interactions to physically plausible neighborhoods, reducing attention complexity by an order of magnitude while preserving geometry-consistent dependencies. LWM-Temporal is pretrained in a self-supervised manner using a physics-informed masking curriculum that emulates realistic occlusions, pilot sparsity, and measurement impairments. Experimental results on channel prediction across multiple mobility regimes show consistent improvements over strong baselines, particularly under long horizons and limited fine-tuning data, highlighting the importance of geometry-aware architectures and geometry-consistent pretraining for learning transferable spatiotemporal wireless representations.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have reshaped our world with significant advancements in science, engineering, and society through applications ranging from scientific discoveries and medical diagnostics to Chatbots. Despite their ubiquity and utility, the underlying mechanisms of LLM remain concealed within billions of parameters and complex structures, making their inner architecture and cognitive processes challenging to comprehend. We address this gap by adopting approaches to understanding emerging cognition in biology and developing a network-based framework that links cognitive skills, LLM architectures, and datasets, ushering in a paradigm shift in foundation model analysis. The skill distribution in the module communities demonstrates that while LLMs do not strictly parallel the focalized specialization observed in specific biological systems, they exhibit unique communities of modules whose emergent skill patterns partially mirror the distributed yet interconnected cognitive organization seen in avian and small mammalian brains. Our numerical results highlight a key divergence from biological systems to LLMs, where skill acquisition benefits substantially from dynamic, cross-regional interactions and neural plasticity. By integrating cognitive science principles with machine learning, our framework provides new insights into LLM interpretability and suggests that effective fine-tuning strategies should leverage distributed learning dynamics rather than rigid modular interventions.

Biological brains demonstrate complex neural activity, where the timing and interplay between neurons is critical to how brains process information. Most deep learning architectures simplify neural activity by abstracting away temporal dynamics. In this paper we challenge that paradigm. By incorporating neuron-level processing and synchronization, we can effectively reintroduce neural timing as a foundational element. We present the Continuous Thought Machine (CTM), a model designed to leverage neural dynamics as its core representation. The CTM has two core innovations: (1) neuron-level temporal processing, where each neuron uses unique weight parameters to process a history of incoming signals; and (2) neural synchronization employed as a latent representation. The CTM aims to strike a balance between oversimplified neuron abstractions that improve computational efficiency, and biological realism. It operates at a level of abstraction that effectively captures essential temporal dynamics while remaining computationally tractable for deep learning. We demonstrate the CTM's strong performance and versatility across a range of challenging tasks, including ImageNet-1K classification, solving 2D mazes, sorting, parity computation, question-answering, and RL tasks. Beyond displaying rich internal representations and offering a natural avenue for interpretation owing to its internal process, the CTM is able to perform tasks that require complex sequential reasoning. The CTM can also leverage adaptive compute, where it can stop earlier for simpler tasks, or keep computing when faced with more challenging instances. The goal of this work is to share the CTM and its associated innovations, rather than pushing for new state-of-the-art results. To that end, we believe the CTM represents a significant step toward developing more biologically plausible and powerful artificial intelligence systems.

Generative modeling of time series is a central challenge in time series analysis, particularly under data-scarce conditions. Despite recent advances in generative modeling, a comprehensive understanding of how state-of-the-art generative models perform under limited supervision remains lacking. In this work, we conduct the first large-scale study evaluating leading generative models in data-scarce settings, revealing a substantial performance gap between full-data and data-scarce regimes. To close this gap, we propose a unified diffusion-based generative framework that can synthesize high-fidelity time series across diverse domains using just a few examples. Our model is pre-trained on a large, heterogeneous collection of time series datasets, enabling it to learn generalizable temporal representations. It further incorporates architectural innovations such as dynamic convolutional layers for flexible channel adaptation and dataset token conditioning for domain-aware generation. Without requiring abundant supervision, our unified model achieves state-of-the-art performance in few-shot settings-outperforming domain-specific baselines across a wide range of subset sizes. Remarkably, it also surpasses all baselines even when tested on full datasets benchmarks, highlighting the strength of pre-training and cross-domain generalization. We hope this work encourages the community to revisit few-shot generative modeling as a key problem in time series research and pursue unified solutions that scale efficiently across domains. Code is available at https://github.com/azencot-group/ImagenFew.

Locating the source of an epidemic, or patient zero (P0), can provide critical insights into the infection's transmission course and allow efficient resource allocation. Existing methods use graph-theoretic centrality measures and expensive message-passing algorithms, requiring knowledge of the underlying dynamics and its parameters. In this paper, we revisit this problem using graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn P0. We establish a theoretical limit for the identification of P0 in a class of epidemic models. We evaluate our method against different epidemic models on both synthetic and a real-world contact network considering a disease with history and characteristics of COVID-19. % We observe that GNNs can identify P0 close to the theoretical bound on accuracy, without explicit input of dynamics or its parameters. In addition, GNN is over 100 times faster than classic methods for inference on arbitrary graph topologies. Our theoretical bound also shows that the epidemic is like a ticking clock, emphasizing the importance of early contact-tracing. We find a maximum time after which accurate recovery of the source becomes impossible, regardless of the algorithm used.

Real-world multivariate time series can exhibit intricate multi-scale structures, including global trends, local periodicities, and non-stationary regimes, which makes long-horizon forecasting challenging. Although sparse Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) approaches improve scalability and specialization, they typically rely on homogeneous MLP experts that poorly capture the diverse temporal dynamics of time series data. We address these limitations with MoHETS, an encoder-only Transformer that integrates sparse Mixture-of-Heterogeneous-Experts (MoHE) layers. MoHE routes temporal patches to a small subset of expert networks, combining a shared depthwise-convolution expert for sequence-level continuity with routed Fourier-based experts for patch-level periodic structures. MoHETS further improves robustness to non-stationary dynamics by incorporating exogenous information via cross-attention over covariate patch embeddings. Finally, we replace parameter-heavy linear projection heads with a lightweight convolutional patch decoder, improving parameter efficiency, reducing training instability, and allowing a single model to generalize across arbitrary forecast horizons. We validate across seven multivariate benchmarks and multiple horizons, with MoHETS consistently achieving state-of-the-art performance, reducing the average MSE by 12% compared to strong recent baselines, demonstrating effective heterogeneous specialization for long-term forecasting.

Triangle centrality is introduced for finding important vertices in a graph based on the concentration of triangles surrounding each vertex. It has the distinct feature of allowing a vertex to be central if it is in many triangles or none at all. We show experimentally that triangle centrality is broadly applicable to many different types of networks. Our empirical results demonstrate that 30% of the time triangle centrality identified central vertices that differed with those found by five well-known centrality measures, which suggests novelty without being overly specialized. It is also asymptotically faster to compute on sparse graphs than all but the most trivial of these other measures. We introduce optimal algorithms that compute triangle centrality in O(mbarδ) time and O(m+n) space, where barδle O(m) is the average degeneracy introduced by Burkhardt, Faber, and Harris (2020). In practical applications, barδ is much smaller than m so triangle centrality can be computed in nearly linear time. On a Concurrent Read Exclusive Write (CREW) Parallel Random Access Machine (PRAM), we give a near work-optimal parallel algorithm that takes O(log n) time using O(mm) CREW PRAM processors. In MapReduce, we show it takes four rounds using O(mm) communication bits and is therefore optimal. We also derive a linear algebraic formulation of triangle centrality which can be computed in O(mbarδ) time on sparse graphs.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) have recently gained significant attention due to their strong zero-shot capabilities and widespread real-world applications. Such models typically require a computationally costly pretraining on large-scale, carefully curated collections of real-world sequences. To allow for a sample-efficient pretraining of TSFMs, we propose CauKer, a novel algorithm designed to generate diverse, causally coherent synthetic time series with realistic trends, seasonality, and nonlinear interactions. CauKer combines Gaussian Process (GP) kernel composition with Structural Causal Models (SCM) to produce data for sample-efficient pretraining of state-of-the-art classification TSFMs having different architectures and following different pretraining approaches. Additionally, our experiments reveal that CauKer-generated datasets exhibit clear scaling laws for both dataset size (10K to 10M samples) and model capacity (1M to 783M parameters), unlike real-world datasets, which display irregular scaling behavior.

This work presents a systematic investigation into the latent knowledge encoded within Network Foundation Models (NFMs) that focuses on hidden representations analysis rather than pure downstream task performance. Different from existing efforts, we analyze the models through a three-part evaluation: Embedding Geometry Analysis to assess representation space utilization, Metric Alignment Assessment to measure correspondence with domain-expert features, and Causal Sensitivity Testing to evaluate robustness to protocol perturbations. Using five diverse network datasets spanning controlled and real-world environments, we evaluate four state-of-the-art NFMs, revealing that they all exhibit significant anisotropy, inconsistent feature sensitivity patterns, an inability to separate the high-level context, payload dependency, and other properties. Our work identifies numerous limitations across all models and demonstrates that addressing them can significantly improve model performance (by up to +0.35 F_1 score without architectural changes).

Why do neurons communicate through spikes? By definition, spikes are all-or-none neural events which occur at continuous times. In other words, spikes are on one side binary, existing or not without further details, and on the other can occur at any asynchronous time, without the need for a centralized clock. This stands in stark contrast to the analog representation of values and the discretized timing classically used in digital processing and at the base of modern-day neural networks. As neural systems almost systematically use this so-called event-based representation in the living world, a better understanding of this phenomenon remains a fundamental challenge in neurobiology in order to better interpret the profusion of recorded data. With the growing need for intelligent embedded systems, it also emerges as a new computing paradigm to enable the efficient operation of a new class of sensors and event-based computers, called neuromorphic, which could enable significant gains in computation time and energy consumption -- a major societal issue in the era of the digital economy and global warming. In this review paper, we provide evidence from biology, theory and engineering that the precise timing of spikes plays a crucial role in our understanding of the efficiency of neural networks.

Reasoning system dynamics is one of the most important analytical approaches for many scientific studies. With the initial state of a system as input, the recent graph neural networks (GNNs)-based methods are capable of predicting the future state distant in time with high accuracy. Although these methods have diverse designs in modeling the coordinates and interacting forces of the system, we show that they actually share a common paradigm that learns the integration of the velocity over the interval between the initial and terminal coordinates. However, their integrand is constant w.r.t. time. Inspired by this observation, we propose a new approach to predict the integration based on several velocity estimations with Newton-Cotes formulas and prove its effectiveness theoretically. Extensive experiments on several benchmarks empirically demonstrate consistent and significant improvement compared with the state-of-the-art methods.

In recent years, attention-like mechanisms have been used to great success in the space of large language models, unlocking scaling potential to a previously unthinkable extent. "Attention Is All You Need" famously claims RNN cells are not needed in conjunction with attention. We challenge this view. In this paper, we point to existing proofs that architectures with fully parallelizable forward or backward passes cannot represent classes of problems specifically interesting for long-running agentic tasks. We further conjecture a critical time t beyond which non-recurrence-complete models fail to aggregate inputs correctly, with concrete implications for agentic systems (e.g., software engineering agents). To address this, we introduce a recurrence-complete architecture and train it on GitHub-derived action sequences. Loss follows a power law in the trained sequence length while the parameter count remains fixed. Moreover, longer-sequence training always amortizes its linearly increasing wall-time cost, yielding lower loss as a function of wall time.

Visual Auto-Regressive (VAR) models significantly reduce inference steps through the "next-scale" prediction paradigm. However, progressive multi-scale generation incurs substantial memory overhead due to cumulative KV caching, limiting practical deployment. We observe a scale-depth asymmetric dependency in VAR: early scales exhibit extreme sensitivity to network depth, while later scales remain robust to depth reduction. Inspired by this, we propose VARiant: by equidistant sampling, we select multiple subnets ranging from 16 to 2 layers from the original 30-layer VAR-d30 network. Early scales are processed by the full network, while later scales utilize subnet. Subnet and the full network share weights, enabling flexible depth adjustment within a single model. However, weight sharing between subnet and the entire network can lead to optimization conflicts. To address this, we propose a progressive training strategy that breaks through the Pareto frontier of generation quality for both subnets and the full network under fixed-ratio training, achieving joint optimality. Experiments on ImageNet demonstrate that, compared to the pretrained VAR-d30 (FID 1.95), VARiant-d16 and VARiant-d8 achieve nearly equivalent quality (FID 2.05/2.12) while reducing memory consumption by 40-65%. VARiant-d2 achieves 3.5 times speedup and 80% memory reduction at moderate quality cost (FID 2.97). In terms of deployment, VARiant's single-model architecture supports zero-cost runtime depth switching and provides flexible deployment options from high quality to extreme efficiency, catering to diverse application scenarios.