Daily Papers

Diffusion Policy (DP) has attracted significant attention as an effective method for policy representation due to its capacity to model multi-distribution dynamics. However, current DPs are often based on a single visual modality (e.g., RGB or point cloud), limiting their accuracy and generalization potential. Although training a generalized DP capable of handling heterogeneous multimodal data would enhance performance, it entails substantial computational and data-related costs. To address these challenges, we propose a novel policy composition method: by leveraging multiple pre-trained DPs based on individual visual modalities, we can combine their distributional scores to form a more expressive Modality-Composable Diffusion Policy (MCDP), without the need for additional training. Through extensive empirical experiments on the RoboTwin dataset, we demonstrate the potential of MCDP to improve both adaptability and performance. This exploration aims to provide valuable insights into the flexible composition of existing DPs, facilitating the development of generalizable cross-modality, cross-domain, and even cross-embodiment policies. Our code is open-sourced at https://github.com/AndyCao1125/MCDP.

This paper presents a decentralized control framework for distribution matching in multi-agent systems (MAS), where agents collectively achieve a prescribed terminal spatial distribution. The problem is formulated using optimal transport (Wasserstein distance), which provides a principled measure of distributional discrepancy and serves as the basis for the control design. To avoid solving the global optimal transport problem directly, the distribution-matching objective is reformulated into a tractable per-agent decision process, enabling each agent to identify its desired terminal locations using only locally available information. A sequential weight-update rule is introduced to construct feasible local transport plans, and a memory-based correction mechanism is incorporated to maintain reliable operation under intermittent and range-limited communication. Convergence guarantees are established, showing cycle-wise improvement of a surrogate transport cost under both linear and nonlinear agent dynamics. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed framework achieves effective and scalable distribution matching while operating fully in a decentralized manner.

We study how multi-head softmax attention models are trained to perform in-context learning on linear data. Through extensive empirical experiments and rigorous theoretical analysis, we demystify the emergence of elegant attention patterns: a diagonal and homogeneous pattern in the key-query (KQ) weights, and a last-entry-only and zero-sum pattern in the output-value (OV) weights. Remarkably, these patterns consistently appear from gradient-based training starting from random initialization. Our analysis reveals that such emergent structures enable multi-head attention to approximately implement a debiased gradient descent predictor -- one that outperforms single-head attention and nearly achieves Bayesian optimality up to proportional factor. Furthermore, compared to linear transformers, the softmax attention readily generalizes to sequences longer than those seen during training. We also extend our study to scenarios with non-isotropic covariates and multi-task linear regression. In the former, multi-head attention learns to implement a form of pre-conditioned gradient descent. In the latter, we uncover an intriguing regime where the interplay between head number and task number triggers a superposition phenomenon that efficiently resolves multi-task in-context learning. Our results reveal that in-context learning ability emerges from the trained transformer as an aggregated effect of its architecture and the underlying data distribution, paving the way for deeper understanding and broader applications of in-context learning.

Deep generative models such as flow matching and diffusion models have shown great potential in learning complex distributions and dynamical systems, but often act as black-boxes, neglecting underlying physics. In contrast, physics-based simulation models described by ODEs/PDEs remain interpretable, but may have missing or unknown terms, unable to fully describe real-world observations. We bridge this gap with a novel grey-box method that integrates incomplete physics models directly into generative models. Our approach learns dynamics from observational trajectories alone, without ground-truth physics parameters, in a simulation-free manner that avoids scalability and stability issues of Neural ODEs. The core of our method lies in modelling a structured variational distribution within the flow matching framework, by using two latent encodings: one to model the missing stochasticity and multi-modal velocity, and a second to encode physics parameters as a latent variable with a physics-informed prior. Furthermore, we present an adaptation of the framework to handle second-order dynamics. Our experiments on representative ODE/PDE problems show that our method performs on par with or superior to fully data-driven approaches and previous grey-box baselines, while preserving the interpretability of the physics model. Our code is available at https://github.com/DMML-Geneva/VGB-DM.

We study the problem of learning goal-conditioned policies in Minecraft, a popular, widely accessible yet challenging open-ended environment for developing human-level multi-task agents. We first identify two main challenges of learning such policies: 1) the indistinguishability of tasks from the state distribution, due to the vast scene diversity, and 2) the non-stationary nature of environment dynamics caused by partial observability. To tackle the first challenge, we propose Goal-Sensitive Backbone (GSB) for the policy to encourage the emergence of goal-relevant visual state representations. To tackle the second challenge, the policy is further fueled by an adaptive horizon prediction module that helps alleviate the learning uncertainty brought by the non-stationary dynamics. Experiments on 20 Minecraft tasks show that our method significantly outperforms the best baseline so far; in many of them, we double the performance. Our ablation and exploratory studies then explain how our approach beat the counterparts and also unveil the surprising bonus of zero-shot generalization to new scenes (biomes). We hope our agent could help shed some light on learning goal-conditioned, multi-task agents in challenging, open-ended environments like Minecraft.

While Late Interaction models exhibit strong retrieval performance, many of their underlying dynamics remain understudied, potentially hiding performance bottlenecks. In this work, we focus on two topics in Late Interaction retrieval: a length bias that arises when using multi-vector scoring, and the similarity distribution beyond the best scores pooled by the MaxSim operator. We analyze these behaviors for state-of-the-art models on the NanoBEIR benchmark. Results show that while the theoretical length bias of causal Late Interaction models holds in practice, bi-directional models can also suffer from it in extreme cases. We also note that no significant similarity trend lies beyond the top-1 document token, validating that the MaxSim operator efficiently exploits the token-level similarity scores.

Visual Document Retrieval (VDR), the task of retrieving visually-rich document pages using queries that combine visual and textual cues, is crucial for numerous real-world applications. Recent state-of-the-art methods leverage Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) in a multi-vector paradigm, representing each document as patch-level embeddings to capture fine-grained details. While highly effective, this approach introduces a critical challenge: prohibitive storage overhead, as storing hundreds of vectors per page makes large-scale deployment costly and impractical. To address this, we introduce DocPruner, the first framework to employ adaptive patch-level embedding pruning for VDR to effectively reduce the storage overhead. DocPruner leverages the intra-document patch attention distribution to dynamically identify and discard redundant embeddings for each document. This adaptive mechanism enables a significant 50-60% reduction in storage for leading multi-vector VDR models with negligible degradation in document retrieval performance. Extensive experiments across more than ten representative datasets validate that DocPruner offers a robust, flexible, and effective solution for building storage-efficient, large-scale VDR systems.

Due to the dynamic and unpredictable open-world setting, navigating complex environments in Minecraft poses significant challenges for multi-agent systems. Agents must interact with the environment and coordinate their actions with other agents to achieve common objectives. However, traditional approaches often struggle to efficiently manage inter-agent communication and task distribution, crucial for effective multi-agent navigation. Furthermore, processing and integrating multi-modal information (such as visual, textual, and auditory data) is essential for agents to comprehend their goals and navigate the environment successfully and fully. To address this issue, we design the HAS framework to auto-organize groups of LLM-based agents to complete navigation tasks. In our approach, we devise a hierarchical auto-organizing navigation system, which is characterized by 1) a hierarchical system for multi-agent organization, ensuring centralized planning and decentralized execution; 2) an auto-organizing and intra-communication mechanism, enabling dynamic group adjustment under subtasks; 3) a multi-modal information platform, facilitating multi-modal perception to perform the three navigation tasks with one system. To assess organizational behavior, we design a series of navigation tasks in the Minecraft environment, which includes searching and exploring. We aim to develop embodied organizations that push the boundaries of embodied AI, moving it towards a more human-like organizational structure.

We propose the Multi-Head Gaussian Adaptive Attention Mechanism (GAAM), a novel probabilistic attention framework, and the Gaussian Adaptive Transformer (GAT), designed to enhance information aggregation across multiple modalities, including Speech, Text and Vision. GAAM integrates learnable mean and variance into its attention mechanism, implemented in a Multi-Headed framework enabling it to collectively model any Probability Distribution for dynamic recalibration of feature significance. This method demonstrates significant improvements, especially with highly non-stationary data, surpassing the state-of-the-art attention techniques in model performance (up to approximately +20% in accuracy) by identifying key elements within the feature space. GAAM's compatibility with dot-product-based attention models and relatively low number of parameters showcases its adaptability and potential to boost existing attention frameworks. Empirically, GAAM exhibits superior adaptability and efficacy across a diverse range of tasks, including emotion recognition in speech, image classification, and text classification, thereby establishing its robustness and versatility in handling multi-modal data. Furthermore, we introduce the Importance Factor (IF), a new learning-based metric that enhances the explainability of models trained with GAAM-based methods. Overall, GAAM represents an advancement towards development of better performing and more explainable attention models across multiple modalities.

Performing language-conditioned robotic manipulation tasks in unstructured environments is highly demanded for general intelligent robots. Conventional robotic manipulation methods usually learn semantic representation of the observation for action prediction, which ignores the scene-level spatiotemporal dynamics for human goal completion. In this paper, we propose a dynamic Gaussian Splatting method named ManiGaussian for multi-task robotic manipulation, which mines scene dynamics via future scene reconstruction. Specifically, we first formulate the dynamic Gaussian Splatting framework that infers the semantics propagation in the Gaussian embedding space, where the semantic representation is leveraged to predict the optimal robot action. Then, we build a Gaussian world model to parameterize the distribution in our dynamic Gaussian Splatting framework, which provides informative supervision in the interactive environment via future scene reconstruction. We evaluate our ManiGaussian on 10 RLBench tasks with 166 variations, and the results demonstrate our framework can outperform the state-of-the-art methods by 13.1\% in average success rate. Project page: https://guanxinglu.github.io/ManiGaussian/.

Burst super-resolution aims to reconstruct high-resolution images with higher quality and richer details by fusing the sub-pixel information from multiple burst low-resolution frames. In BusrtSR, the key challenge lies in extracting the base frame's content complementary sub-pixel details while simultaneously suppressing high-frequency noise disturbance. Existing methods attempt to extract sub-pixels by modeling inter-frame relationships frame by frame while overlooking the mutual correlations among multi-current frames and neglecting the intra-frame interactions, leading to inaccurate and noisy sub-pixels for base frame super-resolution. Further, existing methods mainly employ static upsampling with fixed parameters to improve spatial resolution for all scenes, failing to perceive the sub-pixel distribution difference across multiple frames and cannot balance the fusion weights of different frames, resulting in over-smoothed details and artifacts. To address these limitations, we introduce a novel Query Mamba Burst Super-Resolution (QMambaBSR) network, which incorporates a Query State Space Model (QSSM) and Adaptive Up-sampling module (AdaUp). Specifically, based on the observation that sub-pixels have consistent spatial distribution while random noise is inconsistently distributed, a novel QSSM is proposed to efficiently extract sub-pixels through inter-frame querying and intra-frame scanning while mitigating noise interference in a single step. Moreover, AdaUp is designed to dynamically adjust the upsampling kernel based on the spatial distribution of multi-frame sub-pixel information in the different burst scenes, thereby facilitating the reconstruction of the spatial arrangement of high-resolution details. Extensive experiments on four popular synthetic and real-world benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves a new state-of-the-art performance.

Large-scale commercial platforms usually involve numerous business domains for diverse business strategies and expect their recommendation systems to provide click-through rate (CTR) predictions for multiple domains simultaneously. Existing promising and widely-used multi-domain models discover domain relationships by explicitly constructing domain-specific networks, but the computation and memory boost significantly with the increase of domains. To reduce computational complexity, manually grouping domains with particular business strategies is common in industrial applications. However, this pre-defined data partitioning way heavily relies on prior knowledge, and it may neglect the underlying data distribution of each domain, hence limiting the model's representation capability. Regarding the above issues, we propose an elegant and flexible multi-distribution modeling paradigm, named Adaptive Distribution Hierarchical Model (AdaptDHM), which is an end-to-end optimization hierarchical structure consisting of a clustering process and classification process. Specifically, we design a distribution adaptation module with a customized dynamic routing mechanism. Instead of introducing prior knowledge for pre-defined data allocation, this routing algorithm adaptively provides a distribution coefficient for each sample to determine which cluster it belongs to. Each cluster corresponds to a particular distribution so that the model can sufficiently capture the commonalities and distinctions between these distinct clusters. Extensive experiments on both public and large-scale Alibaba industrial datasets verify the effectiveness and efficiency of AdaptDHM: Our model achieves impressive prediction accuracy and its time cost during the training stage is more than 50% less than that of other models.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit exceptional performance across a wide range of tasks; however, their token-by-token autoregressive generation process significantly hinders inference speed. Speculative decoding presents a promising draft-then-verify framework that reduces generation latency while maintaining output distribution fidelity. Nevertheless, the draft model introduces additional computational overhead, becoming a performance bottleneck and increasing the time to first token (TTFT). Previous approaches to mitigate draft model overhead have primarily relied on heuristics and generally failed to match the quality of the draft language models. To address these challenges, we propose DuoDecoding, a novel approach that strategically deploys the draft and target models on the CPU and GPU respectively, enabling parallel decoding while preserving draft quality. Our method incorporates a hardware-aware optimal draft budget to minimize idle times and employs dynamic multi-sequence drafting to enhance draft quality. Extensive experiments across seven tasks show that DuoDecoding achieves up to 2.61x speedup in generation latency, while reducing TTFT to 83% of that in conventional speculative decoding. The Code is available at https://github.com/KaiLv69/DuoDecoding.

Multi-center positron emission tomography (PET) image synthesis aims at recovering low-dose PET images from multiple different centers. The generalizability of existing methods can still be suboptimal for a multi-center study due to domain shifts, which result from non-identical data distribution among centers with different imaging systems/protocols. While some approaches address domain shifts by training specialized models for each center, they are parameter inefficient and do not well exploit the shared knowledge across centers. To address this, we develop a generalist model that shares architecture and parameters across centers to utilize the shared knowledge. However, the generalist model can suffer from the center interference issue, i.e. the gradient directions of different centers can be inconsistent or even opposite owing to the non-identical data distribution. To mitigate such interference, we introduce a novel dynamic routing strategy with cross-layer connections that routes data from different centers to different experts. Experiments show that our generalist model with dynamic routing (DRMC) exhibits excellent generalizability across centers. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/Yaziwel/Multi-Center-PET-Image-Synthesis.

Apache Spark is a widely adopted framework for large-scale data processing. However, in industrial analytics environments, Spark's built-in schedulers, such as FIFO and fair scheduling, struggle to maintain both user-level fairness and low mean response time, particularly in long-running shared applications. Existing solutions typically focus on job-level fairness which unintentionally favors users who submit more jobs. Although Spark offers a built-in fair scheduler, it lacks adaptability to dynamic user workloads and may degrade overall job performance. We present the User Weighted Fair Queuing (UWFQ) scheduler, designed to minimize job response times while ensuring equitable resource distribution across users and their respective jobs. UWFQ simulates a virtual fair queuing system and schedules jobs based on their estimated finish times under a bounded fairness model. To further address task skew and reduce priority inversions, which are common in Spark workloads, we introduce runtime partitioning, a method that dynamically refines task granularity based on expected runtime. We implement UWFQ within the Spark framework and evaluate its performance using multi-user synthetic workloads and Google cluster traces. We show that UWFQ reduces the average response time of small jobs by up to 74% compared to existing built-in Spark schedulers and to state-of-the-art fair scheduling algorithms.

Large Multi-modal Models (LMMs) have recently demonstrated remarkable abilities in visual context understanding and coherent response generation. However, alongside these advancements, the issue of hallucinations has emerged as a significant challenge, producing erroneous responses that are unrelated to the visual contents. In this paper, we introduce a novel contrastive-based decoding method, COuntering DEscription Contrastive Decoding (CODE), which leverages self-generated descriptions as contrasting references during the decoding phase of LMMs to address hallucination issues. CODE utilizes the comprehensive descriptions from model itself as visual counterpart to correct and improve response alignment with actual visual content. By dynamically adjusting the information flow and distribution of next-token predictions in the LMM's vocabulary, CODE enhances the coherence and informativeness of generated responses. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method significantly reduces hallucinations and improves cross-modal consistency across various benchmarks and cutting-edge LMMs. Our method provides a simple yet effective decoding strategy that can be integrated to existing LMM frameworks without additional training.

Vector databases have emerged as key enablers for bridging intelligent applications with unstructured data, providing generic search and management support for embedding vectors extracted from the raw unstructured data. As multiple data users can share the same database infrastructure, multi-tenancy support for vector databases is increasingly desirable. This hinges on an efficient filtered search operation, i.e., only querying the vectors accessible to a particular tenant. Multi-tenancy in vector databases is currently achieved by building either a single, shared index among all tenants, or a per-tenant index. The former optimizes for memory efficiency at the expense of search performance, while the latter does the opposite. Instead, this paper presents Curator, an in-memory vector index design tailored for multi-tenant queries that simultaneously achieves the two conflicting goals, low memory overhead and high performance for queries, vector insertion, and deletion. Curator indexes each tenant's vectors with a tenant-specific clustering tree and encodes these trees compactly as sub-trees of a shared clustering tree. Each tenant's clustering tree adapts dynamically to its unique vector distribution, while maintaining a low per-tenant memory footprint. Our evaluation, based on two widely used data sets, confirms that Curator delivers search performance on par with per-tenant indexing, while maintaining memory consumption at the same level as metadata filtering on a single, shared index.

We present ReinDriveGen, a framework that enables full controllability over dynamic driving scenes, allowing users to freely edit actor trajectories to simulate safety-critical corner cases such as front-vehicle collisions, drifting cars, vehicles spinning out of control, pedestrians jaywalking, and cyclists cutting across lanes. Our approach constructs a dynamic 3D point cloud scene from multi-frame LiDAR data, introduces a vehicle completion module to reconstruct full 360° geometry from partial observations, and renders the edited scene into 2D condition images that guide a video diffusion model to synthesize realistic driving videos. Since such edited scenarios inevitably fall outside the training distribution, we further propose an RL-based post-training strategy with a pairwise preference model and a pairwise reward mechanism, enabling robust quality improvement under out-of-distribution conditions without ground-truth supervision. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ReinDriveGen outperforms existing approaches on edited driving scenarios and achieves state-of-the-art results on novel ego viewpoint synthesis.

For multi-agent reinforcement learning systems (MARLS), the problem formulation generally involves investing massive reward engineering effort specific to a given problem. However, this effort often cannot be translated to other problems; worse, it gets wasted when system dynamics change drastically. This problem is further exacerbated in sparse reward scenarios, where a meaningful heuristic can assist in the policy convergence task. We propose GOVerned Reward Engineering Kernels (GOV-REK), which dynamically assign reward distributions to agents in MARLS during its learning stage. We also introduce governance kernels, which exploit the underlying structure in either state or joint action space for assigning meaningful agent reward distributions. During the agent learning stage, it iteratively explores different reward distribution configurations with a Hyperband-like algorithm to learn ideal agent reward models in a problem-agnostic manner. Our experiments demonstrate that our meaningful reward priors robustly jumpstart the learning process for effectively learning different MARL problems.

Speculative Decoding (SD) is a technique to accelerate the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) by using a lower complexity draft model to propose candidate tokens verified by a larger target model. To further improve efficiency, Multi-Candidate Speculative Decoding (MCSD) improves upon this by sampling multiple candidate tokens from the draft model at each step and verifying them in parallel, thus increasing the chances of accepting a token and reducing generation time. Existing MCSD methods rely on the draft model to initialize the multi-candidate sequences and use static length and tree attention structure for draft generation. However, such an approach suffers from the draft and target model's output distribution differences, especially in dynamic generation context. In this work, we introduce an improved version of MCSD that includes a target model initialized multi-candidate process, dynamic sliced topology-aware causal mask for dynamic length adjustment, and decision models to optimize early stopping. Our framework improves the acceptance rate, defined as the ratio of the longest draft sequence length accepted by the target model over the maximum draft sequence length, by a maximum of 164% and gains a maximum of 75% generation speed up over the MCSD baseline. We also conduct an ablation study to evaluate the impact of the decision model.

Adapting a pre-trained foundation model on downstream tasks should ensure robustness against distribution shifts without the need to retrain the whole model. Although existing weight interpolation methods are simple yet effective, we argue their static nature limits downstream performance while achieving efficiency. In this work, we propose DaWin, a training-free dynamic weight interpolation method that leverages the entropy of individual models over each unlabeled test sample to assess model expertise, and compute per-sample interpolation coefficients dynamically. Unlike previous works that typically rely on additional training to learn such coefficients, our approach requires no training. Then, we propose a mixture modeling approach that greatly reduces inference overhead raised by dynamic interpolation. We validate DaWin on the large-scale visual recognition benchmarks, spanning 14 tasks across robust fine-tuning -- ImageNet and derived five distribution shift benchmarks -- and multi-task learning with eight classification tasks. Results demonstrate that DaWin achieves significant performance gain in considered settings, with minimal computational overhead. We further discuss DaWin's analytic behavior to explain its empirical success.

Multi-agent trajectory prediction at signalized intersections is crucial for developing efficient intelligent transportation systems and safe autonomous driving systems. Due to the complexity of intersection scenarios and the limitations of single-vehicle perception, the performance of vehicle-centric prediction methods has reached a plateau. In this paper, we introduce an Infrastructure-to-Everything (I2X) collaborative prediction scheme. In this scheme, roadside units (RSUs) independently forecast the future trajectories of all vehicles and transmit these predictions unidirectionally to subscribing vehicles. Building on this scheme, we propose I2XTraj, a dedicated infrastructure-based trajectory prediction model. I2XTraj leverages real-time traffic signal states, prior maneuver strategy knowledge, and multi-agent interactions to generate accurate, joint multi-modal trajectory prediction. First, a continuous signal-informed mechanism is proposed to adaptively process real-time traffic signals to guide trajectory proposal generation under varied intersection configurations. Second, a driving strategy awareness mechanism estimates the joint distribution of maneuver strategies by integrating spatial priors of intersection areas with dynamic vehicle states, enabling coverage of the full set of feasible maneuvers. Third, a spatial-temporal-mode attention network models multi-agent interactions to refine and adjust joint trajectory outputs.Finally, I2XTraj is evaluated on two real-world datasets of signalized intersections, the V2X-Seq and the SinD drone dataset. In both single-infrastructure and online collaborative scenarios, our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods by over 30\% on V2X-Seq and 15\% on SinD, demonstrating strong generalizability and robustness.

We introduce SynBullying, a synthetic multi-LLM conversational dataset for studying and detecting cyberbullying (CB). SynBullying provides a scalable and ethically safe alternative to human data collection by leveraging large language models (LLMs) to simulate realistic bullying interactions. The dataset offers (i) conversational structure, capturing multi-turn exchanges rather than isolated posts; (ii) context-aware annotations, where harmfulness is assessed within the conversational flow considering context, intent, and discourse dynamics; and (iii) fine-grained labeling, covering various CB categories for detailed linguistic and behavioral analysis. We evaluate SynBullying across five dimensions, including conversational structure, lexical patterns, sentiment/toxicity, role dynamics, harm intensity, and CB-type distribution. We further examine its utility by testing its performance as standalone training data and as an augmentation source for CB classification.

Diffusion models approximate the denoising distribution as a Gaussian and predict its mean, whereas flow matching models reparameterize the Gaussian mean as flow velocity. However, they underperform in few-step sampling due to discretization error and tend to produce over-saturated colors under classifier-free guidance (CFG). To address these limitations, we propose a novel Gaussian mixture flow matching (GMFlow) model: instead of predicting the mean, GMFlow predicts dynamic Gaussian mixture (GM) parameters to capture a multi-modal flow velocity distribution, which can be learned with a KL divergence loss. We demonstrate that GMFlow generalizes previous diffusion and flow matching models where a single Gaussian is learned with an L_2 denoising loss. For inference, we derive GM-SDE/ODE solvers that leverage analytic denoising distributions and velocity fields for precise few-step sampling. Furthermore, we introduce a novel probabilistic guidance scheme that mitigates the over-saturation issues of CFG and improves image generation quality. Extensive experiments demonstrate that GMFlow consistently outperforms flow matching baselines in generation quality, achieving a Precision of 0.942 with only 6 sampling steps on ImageNet 256times256.

Given a set of K probability densities, we consider the multimarginal generative modeling problem of learning a joint distribution that recovers these densities as marginals. The structure of this joint distribution should identify multi-way correspondences among the prescribed marginals. We formalize an approach to this task within a generalization of the stochastic interpolant framework, leading to efficient learning algorithms built upon dynamical transport of measure. Our generative models are defined by velocity and score fields that can be characterized as the minimizers of simple quadratic objectives, and they are defined on a simplex that generalizes the time variable in the usual dynamical transport framework. The resulting transport on the simplex is influenced by all marginals, and we show that multi-way correspondences can be extracted. The identification of such correspondences has applications to style transfer, algorithmic fairness, and data decorruption. In addition, the multimarginal perspective enables an efficient algorithm for reducing the dynamical transport cost in the ordinary two-marginal setting. We demonstrate these capacities with several numerical examples.

The striking fractal geometry of strange attractors underscores the generative nature of chaos: like probability distributions, chaotic systems can be repeatedly measured to produce arbitrarily-detailed information about the underlying attractor. Chaotic systems thus pose a unique challenge to modern statistical learning techniques, while retaining quantifiable mathematical properties that make them controllable and interpretable as benchmarks. Here, we present a growing database currently comprising 131 known chaotic dynamical systems spanning fields such as astrophysics, climatology, and biochemistry. Each system is paired with precomputed multivariate and univariate time series. Our dataset has comparable scale to existing static time series databases; however, our systems can be re-integrated to produce additional datasets of arbitrary length and granularity. Our dataset is annotated with known mathematical properties of each system, and we perform feature analysis to broadly categorize the diverse dynamics present across the collection. Chaotic systems inherently challenge forecasting models, and across extensive benchmarks we correlate forecasting performance with the degree of chaos present. We also exploit the unique generative properties of our dataset in several proof-of-concept experiments: surrogate transfer learning to improve time series classification, importance sampling to accelerate model training, and benchmarking symbolic regression algorithms.

Modeling stochastic dynamics from discrete observations is a key interdisciplinary challenge. Existing methods often fail to estimate the continuous evolution of probability densities from trajectories or face the curse of dimensionality. To address these limitations, we presents a novel paradigm: modeling dynamics directly in the weight space of a neural network by projecting the evolving probability distribution. We first theoretically establish the connection between dynamic optimal transport in measure space and an equivalent energy functional in weight space. Subsequently, we design WeightFlow, which constructs the neural network weights into a graph and learns its evolution via a graph controlled differential equation. Experiments on interdisciplinary datasets demonstrate that WeightFlow improves performance by an average of 43.02\% over state-of-the-art methods, providing an effective and scalable solution for modeling high-dimensional stochastic dynamics.

We introduce a novel framework for efficient sampling from complex, unnormalised target distributions by exploiting multiscale dynamics. Traditional score-based sampling methods either rely on learned approximations of the score function or involve computationally expensive nested Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) loops. In contrast, the proposed approach leverages stochastic averaging within a slow-fast system of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to estimate intermediate scores along a diffusion path without training or inner-loop MCMC. Two algorithms are developed under this framework: MultALMC, which uses multiscale annealed Langevin dynamics, and MultCDiff, based on multiscale controlled diffusions for the reverse-time Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Both overdamped and underdamped variants are considered, with theoretical guarantees of convergence to the desired diffusion path. The framework is extended to handle heavy-tailed target distributions using Student's t-based noise models and tailored fast-process dynamics. Empirical results across synthetic and real-world benchmarks, including multimodal and high-dimensional distributions, demonstrate that the proposed methods are competitive with existing samplers in terms of accuracy and efficiency, without the need for learned models.

Complex, temporally evolving phenomena, from climate to brain activity, are governed by dynamical systems (DS). DS reconstruction (DSR) seeks to infer generative surrogate models of these from observed data, reproducing their long-term behavior. Existing DSR approaches require purpose-training for any new system observed, lacking the zero-shot and in-context inference capabilities known from LLMs. Here we introduce DynaMix, a novel multivariate ALRNN-based mixture-of-experts architecture pre-trained for DSR, the first DSR model able to generalize zero-shot to out-of-domain DS. Just from a provided context signal, without any re-training, DynaMix faithfully forecasts the long-term evolution of novel DS where existing time series (TS) foundation models, like Chronos, fail -- at a fraction of the number of parameters and orders of magnitude faster inference times. DynaMix outperforms TS foundation models in terms of long-term statistics, and often also short-term forecasts, even on real-world time series, like traffic or weather data, typically used for training and evaluating TS models, but not at all part of DynaMix' training corpus. We illustrate some of the failure modes of TS models for DSR problems, and conclude that models built on DS principles may bear a huge potential also for advancing the TS prediction field.

Systemic financial risk refers to the simultaneous failure or destabilization of multiple financial institutions, often triggered by contagion mechanisms or common exposures to shocks. In this paper, we present a dynamical model of bank leverage (the ratio of asset holdings to equity) a quantity that both reflects and drives risk dynamics. We model how banks, constrained by Value-at-Risk (VaR) regulations, adjust their leverage in response to changes in the price of a single asset, assumed to be held in fixed proportion across banks. This leverage-targeting behavior introduces a procyclical feedback loop between asset prices and leverage. In the dynamics, this can manifest as logistic-like behavior with a rich bifurcation structure across model parameters. By analyzing these coupled dynamics in both isolated and interconnected bank models, we outline a framework for understanding how systemic risk can emerge from seemingly rational micro-level behavior.

While previous distribution shift detection approaches can identify if a shift has occurred, these approaches cannot localize which specific features have caused a distribution shift -- a critical step in diagnosing or fixing any underlying issue. For example, in military sensor networks, users will want to detect when one or more of the sensors has been compromised, and critically, they will want to know which specific sensors might be compromised. Thus, we first define a formalization of this problem as multiple conditional distribution hypothesis tests and propose both non-parametric and parametric statistical tests. For both efficiency and flexibility, we then propose to use a test statistic based on the density model score function (i.e. gradient with respect to the input) -- which can easily compute test statistics for all dimensions in a single forward and backward pass. Any density model could be used for computing the necessary statistics including deep density models such as normalizing flows or autoregressive models. We additionally develop methods for identifying when and where a shift occurs in multivariate time-series data and show results for multiple scenarios using realistic attack models on both simulated and real world data.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

We propose a new class of parameterizations for spatio-temporal point processes which leverage Neural ODEs as a computational method and enable flexible, high-fidelity models of discrete events that are localized in continuous time and space. Central to our approach is a combination of continuous-time neural networks with two novel neural architectures, i.e., Jump and Attentive Continuous-time Normalizing Flows. This approach allows us to learn complex distributions for both the spatial and temporal domain and to condition non-trivially on the observed event history. We validate our models on data sets from a wide variety of contexts such as seismology, epidemiology, urban mobility, and neuroscience.

Dynamical systems with complex behaviours, e.g. immune system cells interacting with a pathogen, are commonly modelled by splitting the behaviour into different regimes, or modes, each with simpler dynamics, and then learning the switching behaviour from one mode to another. Switching Dynamical Systems (SDS) are a powerful tool that automatically discovers these modes and mode-switching behaviour from time series data. While effective, these methods focus on independent objects, where the modes of one object are independent of the modes of the other objects. In this paper, we focus on the more general interacting object setting for switching dynamical systems, where the per-object dynamics also depends on an unknown and dynamically changing subset of other objects and their modes. To this end, we propose a novel graph-based approach for switching dynamical systems, GRAph Switching dynamical Systems (GRASS), in which we use a dynamic graph to characterize interactions between objects and learn both intra-object and inter-object mode-switching behaviour. We introduce two new datasets for this setting, a synthesized ODE-driven particles dataset and a real-world Salsa Couple Dancing dataset. Experiments show that GRASS can consistently outperforms previous state-of-the-art methods.

Real-world data can be multimodal distributed, e.g., data describing the opinion divergence in a community, the interspike interval distribution of neurons, and the oscillators natural frequencies. Generating multimodal distributed real-world data has become a challenge to existing generative adversarial networks (GANs). For example, neural stochastic differential equations (Neural SDEs), treated as infinite-dimensional GANs, have demonstrated successful performance mainly in generating unimodal time series data. In this paper, we propose a novel time series generator, named directed chain GANs (DC-GANs), which inserts a time series dataset (called a neighborhood process of the directed chain or input) into the drift and diffusion coefficients of the directed chain SDEs with distributional constraints. DC-GANs can generate new time series of the same distribution as the neighborhood process, and the neighborhood process will provide the key step in learning and generating multimodal distributed time series. The proposed DC-GANs are examined on four datasets, including two stochastic models from social sciences and computational neuroscience, and two real-world datasets on stock prices and energy consumption. To our best knowledge, DC-GANs are the first work that can generate multimodal time series data and consistently outperforms state-of-the-art benchmarks with respect to measures of distribution, data similarity, and predictive ability.

This paper introduces a continuous-time stochastic dynamical framework for understanding how large language models (LLMs) may self-amplify latent biases or toxicity through their own chain-of-thought reasoning. The model posits an instantaneous "severity" variable x(t) in [0,1] evolving under a stochastic differential equation (SDE) with a drift term μ(x) and diffusion σ(x). Crucially, such a process can be consistently analyzed via the Fokker--Planck approach if each incremental step behaves nearly Markovian in severity space. The analysis investigates critical phenomena, showing that certain parameter regimes create phase transitions from subcritical (self-correcting) to supercritical (runaway severity). The paper derives stationary distributions, first-passage times to harmful thresholds, and scaling laws near critical points. Finally, it highlights implications for agents and extended LLM reasoning models: in principle, these equations might serve as a basis for formal verification of whether a model remains stable or propagates bias over repeated inferences.

Diffusion-based generative models (DBGMs) perturb data to a target noise distribution and reverse this process to generate samples. The choice of noising process, or inference diffusion process, affects both likelihoods and sample quality. For example, extending the inference process with auxiliary variables leads to improved sample quality. While there are many such multivariate diffusions to explore, each new one requires significant model-specific analysis, hindering rapid prototyping and evaluation. In this work, we study Multivariate Diffusion Models (MDMs). For any number of auxiliary variables, we provide a recipe for maximizing a lower-bound on the MDMs likelihood without requiring any model-specific analysis. We then demonstrate how to parameterize the diffusion for a specified target noise distribution; these two points together enable optimizing the inference diffusion process. Optimizing the diffusion expands easy experimentation from just a few well-known processes to an automatic search over all linear diffusions. To demonstrate these ideas, we introduce two new specific diffusions as well as learn a diffusion process on the MNIST, CIFAR10, and ImageNet32 datasets. We show learned MDMs match or surpass bits-per-dims (BPDs) relative to fixed choices of diffusions for a given dataset and model architecture.

We study the problem of learning a neural sampler to generate samples from discrete state spaces where the target probability mass function piproptoe^{-U} is known up to a normalizing constant, which is an important task in fields such as statistical physics, machine learning, combinatorial optimization, etc. To better address this challenging task when the state space has a large cardinality and the distribution is multi-modal, we propose Masked Diffusion Neural Sampler (MDNS), a novel framework for training discrete neural samplers by aligning two path measures through a family of learning objectives, theoretically grounded in the stochastic optimal control of the continuous-time Markov chains. We validate the efficiency and scalability of MDNS through extensive experiments on various distributions with distinct statistical properties, where MDNS learns to accurately sample from the target distributions despite the extremely high problem dimensions and outperforms other learning-based baselines by a large margin. A comprehensive study of ablations and extensions is also provided to demonstrate the efficacy and potential of the proposed framework.

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) often achieves higher sample efficiency in practice than model-free RL by learning a dynamics model to generate samples for policy learning. Previous works learn a dynamics model that fits under the empirical state-action visitation distribution for all historical policies, i.e., the sample replay buffer. However, in this paper, we observe that fitting the dynamics model under the distribution for all historical policies does not necessarily benefit model prediction for the current policy since the policy in use is constantly evolving over time. The evolving policy during training will cause state-action visitation distribution shifts. We theoretically analyze how this distribution shift over historical policies affects the model learning and model rollouts. We then propose a novel dynamics model learning method, named Policy-adapted Dynamics Model Learning (PDML). PDML dynamically adjusts the historical policy mixture distribution to ensure the learned model can continually adapt to the state-action visitation distribution of the evolving policy. Experiments on a range of continuous control environments in MuJoCo show that PDML achieves significant improvement in sample efficiency and higher asymptotic performance combined with the state-of-the-art model-based RL methods.

The friction coefficient of a particle can depend on its position as it does when the particle is near a wall. We formulate the dynamics of particles with such state-dependent friction coefficients in terms of a general Langevin equation with multiplicative noise, whose evaluation requires the introduction of specific rules. Two common conventions, the Ito and the Stratonovich, provide alternative rules for evaluation of the noise, but other conventions are possible. We show the requirement that a particle's distribution function approach the Boltzmann distribution at long times dictates that a drift term must be added to the Langevin equation. This drift term is proportional to the derivative of the diffusion coefficient times a factor that depends on the convention used to define the multiplicative noise. We explore the consequences of this result in a number examples with spatially varying diffusion coefficients. We also derive path integral representations for arbitrary interpretation of the noise, and use it in a perturbative study of correlations in a simple system.

Diffusion models suffer from slow sample generation at inference time. Therefore, developing a principled framework for fast deterministic/stochastic sampling for a broader class of diffusion models is a promising direction. We propose two complementary frameworks for accelerating sample generation in pre-trained models: Conjugate Integrators and Splitting Integrators. Conjugate integrators generalize DDIM, mapping the reverse diffusion dynamics to a more amenable space for sampling. In contrast, splitting-based integrators, commonly used in molecular dynamics, reduce the numerical simulation error by cleverly alternating between numerical updates involving the data and auxiliary variables. After extensively studying these methods empirically and theoretically, we present a hybrid method that leads to the best-reported performance for diffusion models in augmented spaces. Applied to Phase Space Langevin Diffusion [Pandey & Mandt, 2023] on CIFAR-10, our deterministic and stochastic samplers achieve FID scores of 2.11 and 2.36 in only 100 network function evaluations (NFE) as compared to 2.57 and 2.63 for the best-performing baselines, respectively. Our code and model checkpoints will be made publicly available at https://github.com/mandt-lab/PSLD.

In this study, we propose a multi branched network approach to predict the dynamics of a physics attractor characterized by intricate and chaotic behavior. We introduce a unique neural network architecture comprised of Radial Basis Function (RBF) layers combined with an attention mechanism designed to effectively capture nonlinear inter-dependencies inherent in the attractor's temporal evolution. Our results demonstrate successful prediction of the attractor's trajectory across 100 predictions made using a real-world dataset of 36,700 time-series observations encompassing approximately 28 minutes of activity. To further illustrate the performance of our proposed technique, we provide comprehensive visualizations depicting the attractor's original and predicted behaviors alongside quantitative measures comparing observed versus estimated outcomes. Overall, this work showcases the potential of advanced machine learning algorithms in elucidating hidden structures in complex physical systems while offering practical applications in various domains requiring accurate short-term forecasting capabilities.

Hyperparameter tuning is one of the essential steps to guarantee the convergence of machine learning models. We argue that intuition about the optimal choice of hyperparameters for stochastic gradient descent can be obtained by studying a neural network's phase diagram, in which each phase is characterised by distinctive dynamics of the singular values of weight matrices. Taking inspiration from disordered systems, we start from the observation that the loss landscape of a multilayer neural network with mean squared error can be interpreted as a disordered system in feature space, where the learnt features are mapped to soft spin degrees of freedom, the initial variance of the weight matrices is interpreted as the strength of the disorder, and temperature is given by the ratio of the learning rate and the batch size. As the model is trained, three phases can be identified, in which the dynamics of weight matrices is qualitatively different. Employing a Langevin equation for stochastic gradient descent, previously derived using Dyson Brownian motion, we demonstrate that the three dynamical regimes can be classified effectively, providing practical guidance for the choice of hyperparameters of the optimiser.

We provide a concise framework for generalized ensemble theory through a matrix-based approach. By introducing an observation matrix, any discrete probability distribution, including those for non-equilibrium steady states, can be expressed as a generalized Boltzmann distribution, with observables and conjugate variables as the basis and coordinates in a linear space. In this framework, we identify the minimal sufficient statistics required for inferring the Boltzmann distribution. Furthermore, we show that the Hadamard and Vandermonde matrices are suitable observation matrices for spin systems and random walks. In master equation systems, the probability flux observation matrix facilitates the identification of detailed balance violations. Our findings provide a new approach to developing generalized ensemble theory for non-equilibrium steady-state systems.

In this paper, we extend mean-field Langevin dynamics to minimax optimization over probability distributions for the first time with symmetric and provably convergent updates. We propose mean-field Langevin averaged gradient (MFL-AG), a single-loop algorithm that implements gradient descent ascent in the distribution spaces with a novel weighted averaging, and establish average-iterate convergence to the mixed Nash equilibrium. We also study both time and particle discretization regimes and prove a new uniform-in-time propagation of chaos result which accounts for the dependency of the particle interactions on all previous distributions. Furthermore, we propose mean-field Langevin anchored best response (MFL-ABR), a symmetric double-loop algorithm based on best response dynamics with linear last-iterate convergence. Finally, we study applications to zero-sum Markov games and conduct simulations demonstrating long-term optimality.

We introduce distributional dynamic programming (DP) methods for optimizing statistical functionals of the return distribution, with standard reinforcement learning as a special case. Previous distributional DP methods could optimize the same class of expected utilities as classic DP. To go beyond expected utilities, we combine distributional DP with stock augmentation, a technique previously introduced for classic DP in the context of risk-sensitive RL, where the MDP state is augmented with a statistic of the rewards obtained so far (since the first time step). We find that a number of recently studied problems can be formulated as stock-augmented return distribution optimization, and we show that we can use distributional DP to solve them. We analyze distributional value and policy iteration, with bounds and a study of what objectives these distributional DP methods can or cannot optimize. We describe a number of applications outlining how to use distributional DP to solve different stock-augmented return distribution optimization problems, for example maximizing conditional value-at-risk, and homeostatic regulation. To highlight the practical potential of stock-augmented return distribution optimization and distributional DP, we combine the core ideas of distributional value iteration with the deep RL agent DQN, and empirically evaluate it for solving instances of the applications discussed.

Diffusion models are a class of probabilistic generative models that have been widely used as a prior for image processing tasks like text conditional generation and inpainting. We demonstrate that these models can be adapted to make predictions and provide uncertainty quantification for chaotic dynamical systems. In these applications, diffusion models can implicitly represent knowledge about outliers and extreme events; however, querying that knowledge through conditional sampling or measuring probabilities is surprisingly difficult. Existing methods for conditional sampling at inference time seek mainly to enforce the constraints, which is insufficient to match the statistics of the distribution or compute the probability of the chosen events. To achieve these ends, optimally one would use the conditional score function, but its computation is typically intractable. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approximation scheme for the conditional score function which provably converges to the true distribution as the noise level decreases. With this scheme we are able to sample conditionally on nonlinear userdefined events at inference time, and matches data statistics even when sampling from the tails of the distribution.

A central problem in machine learning involves modeling complex data-sets using highly flexible families of probability distributions in which learning, sampling, inference, and evaluation are still analytically or computationally tractable. Here, we develop an approach that simultaneously achieves both flexibility and tractability. The essential idea, inspired by non-equilibrium statistical physics, is to systematically and slowly destroy structure in a data distribution through an iterative forward diffusion process. We then learn a reverse diffusion process that restores structure in data, yielding a highly flexible and tractable generative model of the data. This approach allows us to rapidly learn, sample from, and evaluate probabilities in deep generative models with thousands of layers or time steps, as well as to compute conditional and posterior probabilities under the learned model. We additionally release an open source reference implementation of the algorithm.

During 2023, two interesting results were proven about the limit behavior of game dynamics: First, it was shown that there is a game for which no dynamics converges to the Nash equilibria. Second, it was shown that the sink equilibria of a game adequately capture the limit behavior of natural game dynamics. These two results have created a need and opportunity to articulate a principled computational theory of the meaning of the game that is based on game dynamics. Given any game in normal form, and any prior distribution of play, we study the problem of computing the asymptotic behavior of a class of natural dynamics called the noisy replicator dynamics as a limit distribution over the sink equilibria of the game. When the prior distribution has pure strategy support, we prove this distribution can be computed efficiently, in near-linear time to the size of the best-response graph. When the distribution can be sampled -- for example, if it is the uniform distribution over all mixed strategy profiles -- we show through experiments that the limit distribution of reasonably large games can be estimated quite accurately through sampling and simulation.

We study the scaling properties of avalanche activity in the two-dimensional Abelian sandpile model. Instead of the conventional avalanche size distribution, we analyze the site activity distribution, which measures how often a site participates in avalanches when grains are added across the lattice. Using numerical simulations for system sizes up to \(L = 160\), averaged over \(10^4\) configurations, we determine the probability distribution \(P(A, L)\) of site activities. The results show that \(P(A, L)\) follows a finite-size scaling form \[ P(A, L) \sim L^{-2} F\Big(A{L^2}\Big). \] For small values \(A \ll L^2\) the scaling function behaves as \[ F(u) \sim u^{-1/2}, \quad corresponding to \quad P(A) \sim 1{L}, \] while for large activities \(A \sim O(L^2)\) the distribution decays as \[ F(u) \sim \exp\big(-c_3 u - c_4 u^2\big). \] The crossover between these two regimes occurs at \[ A^* \sim 0.1 \, L^2, \] marking the threshold between typical and highly excitable sites. This characterization of local avalanche activity provides complementary information to the usual avalanche size statistics, highlighting how local regions serve as frequent conduits for critical dynamics. These results may help connect sandpile models to real-world self-organized critical systems where only partial local activity can be observed.

Generating photos satisfying multiple constraints find broad utility in the content creation industry. A key hurdle to accomplishing this task is the need for paired data consisting of all modalities (i.e., constraints) and their corresponding output. Moreover, existing methods need retraining using paired data across all modalities to introduce a new condition. This paper proposes a solution to this problem based on denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs). Our motivation for choosing diffusion models over other generative models comes from the flexible internal structure of diffusion models. Since each sampling step in the DDPM follows a Gaussian distribution, we show that there exists a closed-form solution for generating an image given various constraints. Our method can unite multiple diffusion models trained on multiple sub-tasks and conquer the combined task through our proposed sampling strategy. We also introduce a novel reliability parameter that allows using different off-the-shelf diffusion models trained across various datasets during sampling time alone to guide it to the desired outcome satisfying multiple constraints. We perform experiments on various standard multimodal tasks to demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach. More details can be found in https://nithin-gk.github.io/projectpages/Multidiff/index.html

Generative models inspired by dynamical transport of measure -- such as flows and diffusions -- construct a continuous-time map between two probability densities. Conventionally, one of these is the target density, only accessible through samples, while the other is taken as a simple base density that is data-agnostic. In this work, using the framework of stochastic interpolants, we formalize how to couple the base and the target densities. This enables us to incorporate information about class labels or continuous embeddings to construct dynamical transport maps that serve as conditional generative models. We show that these transport maps can be learned by solving a simple square loss regression problem analogous to the standard independent setting. We demonstrate the usefulness of constructing dependent couplings in practice through experiments in super-resolution and in-painting.

A growing trend for value-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms is to capture more information than scalar value functions in the value network. One of the most well-known methods in this branch is distributional RL, which models return distribution instead of scalar value. In another line of work, hybrid reward architectures (HRA) in RL have studied to model source-specific value functions for each source of reward, which is also shown to be beneficial in performance. To fully inherit the benefits of distributional RL and hybrid reward architectures, we introduce Multi-Dimensional Distributional DQN (MD3QN), which extends distributional RL to model the joint return distribution from multiple reward sources. As a by-product of joint distribution modeling, MD3QN can capture not only the randomness in returns for each source of reward, but also the rich reward correlation between the randomness of different sources. We prove the convergence for the joint distributional Bellman operator and build our empirical algorithm by minimizing the Maximum Mean Discrepancy between joint return distribution and its Bellman target. In experiments, our method accurately models the joint return distribution in environments with richly correlated reward functions, and outperforms previous RL methods utilizing multi-dimensional reward functions in the control setting.

Stochastic processes have found numerous applications in science, as they are broadly used to model a variety of natural phenomena. Due to their intrinsic randomness and uncertainty, they are however difficult to characterize. Here, we introduce an unsupervised machine learning approach to determine the minimal set of parameters required to effectively describe the dynamics of a stochastic process. Our method builds upon an extended beta-variational autoencoder architecture. By means of simulated datasets corresponding to paradigmatic diffusion models, we showcase its effectiveness in extracting the minimal relevant parameters that accurately describe these dynamics. Furthermore, the method enables the generation of new trajectories that faithfully replicate the expected stochastic behavior. Overall, our approach enables for the autonomous discovery of unknown parameters describing stochastic processes, hence enhancing our comprehension of complex phenomena across various fields.

In this paper we argue for the fundamental importance of the value distribution: the distribution of the random return received by a reinforcement learning agent. This is in contrast to the common approach to reinforcement learning which models the expectation of this return, or value. Although there is an established body of literature studying the value distribution, thus far it has always been used for a specific purpose such as implementing risk-aware behaviour. We begin with theoretical results in both the policy evaluation and control settings, exposing a significant distributional instability in the latter. We then use the distributional perspective to design a new algorithm which applies Bellman's equation to the learning of approximate value distributions. We evaluate our algorithm using the suite of games from the Arcade Learning Environment. We obtain both state-of-the-art results and anecdotal evidence demonstrating the importance of the value distribution in approximate reinforcement learning. Finally, we combine theoretical and empirical evidence to highlight the ways in which the value distribution impacts learning in the approximate setting.

Causal discovery for dynamical systems poses a major challenge in fields where active interventions are infeasible. Most methods used to investigate these systems and their associated benchmarks are tailored to deterministic, low-dimensional and weakly nonlinear time-series data. To address these limitations, we present CausalDynamics, a large-scale benchmark and extensible data generation framework to advance the structural discovery of dynamical causal models. Our benchmark consists of true causal graphs derived from thousands of coupled ordinary and stochastic differential equations as well as two idealized climate models. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of state-of-the-art causal discovery algorithms for graph reconstruction on systems with noisy, confounded, and lagged dynamics. CausalDynamics consists of a plug-and-play, build-your-own coupling workflow that enables the construction of a hierarchy of physical systems. We anticipate that our framework will facilitate the development of robust causal discovery algorithms that are broadly applicable across domains while addressing their unique challenges. We provide a user-friendly implementation and documentation on https://kausable.github.io/CausalDynamics.

Diffusion models (DMs) represent state-of-the-art generative models for continuous inputs. DMs work by constructing a Stochastic Differential Equation (SDE) in the input space (ie, position space), and using a neural network to reverse it. In this work, we introduce a novel generative modeling framework grounded in phase space dynamics, where a phase space is defined as {an augmented space encompassing both position and velocity.} Leveraging insights from Stochastic Optimal Control, we construct a path measure in the phase space that enables efficient sampling. {In contrast to DMs, our framework demonstrates the capability to generate realistic data points at an early stage of dynamics propagation.} This early prediction sets the stage for efficient data generation by leveraging additional velocity information along the trajectory. On standard image generation benchmarks, our model yields favorable performance over baselines in the regime of small Number of Function Evaluations (NFEs). Furthermore, our approach rivals the performance of diffusion models equipped with efficient sampling techniques, underscoring its potential as a new tool generative modeling.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes which describe dynamical systems evolving in discrete state spaces. These processes find wide application in the natural sciences and machine learning, but their inference is known to be far from trivial. In this work we introduce a methodology for zero-shot inference of Markov jump processes (MJPs), on bounded state spaces, from noisy and sparse observations, which consists of two components. First, a broad probability distribution over families of MJPs, as well as over possible observation times and noise mechanisms, with which we simulate a synthetic dataset of hidden MJPs and their noisy observation process. Second, a neural network model that processes subsets of the simulated observations, and that is trained to output the initial condition and rate matrix of the target MJP in a supervised way. We empirically demonstrate that one and the same (pretrained) model can infer, in a zero-shot fashion, hidden MJPs evolving in state spaces of different dimensionalities. Specifically, we infer MJPs which describe (i) discrete flashing ratchet systems, which are a type of Brownian motors, and the conformational dynamics in (ii) molecular simulations, (iii) experimental ion channel data and (iv) simple protein folding models. What is more, we show that our model performs on par with state-of-the-art models which are finetuned to the target datasets.

Deep neural networks have become increasingly of interest in dynamical system prediction, but out-of-distribution generalization and long-term stability still remains challenging. In this work, we treat the domain parameters of dynamical systems as factors of variation of the data generating process. By leveraging ideas from supervised disentanglement and causal factorization, we aim to separate the domain parameters from the dynamics in the latent space of generative models. In our experiments we model dynamics both in phase space and in video sequences and conduct rigorous OOD evaluations. Results indicate that disentangled VAEs adapt better to domain parameters spaces that were not present in the training data. At the same time, disentanglement can improve the long-term and out-of-distribution predictions of state-of-the-art models in video sequences.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

We study in detail a one-dimensional lattice model of a continuum, conserved field (mass) that is transferred deterministically between neighbouring random sites. The model falls in a wider class of lattice models capturing the joint effect of random advection and diffusion and encompassing as specific cases, some models studied in the literature, like the Kang-Redner, Kipnis-Marchioro-Presutti, Takayasu-Taguchi, etc. The motivation for our setup comes from a straightforward interpretation as advection of particles in one-dimensional turbulence, but it is also related to a problem of synchronization of dynamical systems driven by common noise. For finite lattices, we study both the coalescence of an initially spread field (interpreted as roughening), and the statistical steady-state properties. We distinguish two main size-dependent regimes, depending on the strength of the diffusion term and on the lattice size. Using numerical simulations and mean-field approach, we study the statistics of the field. For weak diffusion, we unveil a characteristic hierarchical structure of the field. We also connect the model and the iterated function systems concept.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

Applying diffusion models in reinforcement learning for long-term planning has gained much attention recently. Several diffusion-based methods have successfully leveraged the modeling capabilities of diffusion for arbitrary distributions. These methods generate subsequent trajectories for planning and have demonstrated significant improvement. However, these methods are limited by their plain base distributions and their overlooking of the diversity of samples, in which different states have different returns. They simply leverage diffusion to learn the distribution of offline dataset, generate the trajectories whose states share the same distribution with the offline dataset. As a result, the probability of these models reaching the high-return states is largely dependent on the dataset distribution. Even equipped with the guidance model, the performance is still suppressed. To address these limitations, in this paper, we propose a novel method called CDiffuser, which devises a return contrast mechanism to pull the states in generated trajectories towards high-return states while pushing them away from low-return states to improve the base distribution. Experiments on 14 commonly used D4RL benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method.

In this paper, we introduce a new class of score-based generative models (SGMs) designed to handle high-cardinality data distributions by leveraging concepts from mean-field theory. We present mean-field chaos diffusion models (MF-CDMs), which address the curse of dimensionality inherent in high-cardinality data by utilizing the propagation of chaos property of interacting particles. By treating high-cardinality data as a large stochastic system of interacting particles, we develop a novel score-matching method for infinite-dimensional chaotic particle systems and propose an approximation scheme that employs a subdivision strategy for efficient training. Our theoretical and empirical results demonstrate the scalability and effectiveness of MF-CDMs for managing large high-cardinality data structures, such as 3D point clouds.

As neural networks grow in scale, their training becomes both computationally demanding and rich in dynamics. Amidst the flourishing interest in these training dynamics, we present a novel observation: Parameters during training exhibit intrinsic correlations over time. Capitalizing on this, we introduce Correlation Mode Decomposition (CMD). This algorithm clusters the parameter space into groups, termed modes, that display synchronized behavior across epochs. This enables CMD to efficiently represent the training dynamics of complex networks, like ResNets and Transformers, using only a few modes. Moreover, test set generalization is enhanced. We introduce an efficient CMD variant, designed to run concurrently with training. Our experiments indicate that CMD surpasses the state-of-the-art method for compactly modeled dynamics on image classification. Our modeling can improve training efficiency and lower communication overhead, as shown by our preliminary experiments in the context of federated learning.

Nonlinear ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are powerful tools for modeling real-world dynamical systems. However, propagating initial state uncertainty through nonlinear dynamics, especially when the ODE is unknown and learned from data, remains a major challenge. This paper introduces a novel continuum dynamics perspective for model learning that enables formal uncertainty propagation by constructing Taylor series approximations of probabilistic events. We establish sufficient conditions for the soundness of the approach and prove its asymptotic convergence. Empirical results demonstrate the framework's effectiveness, particularly when predicting rare events.

Time series forecasting is widely used in extensive applications, such as traffic planning and weather forecasting. However, real-world time series usually present intricate temporal variations, making forecasting extremely challenging. Going beyond the mainstream paradigms of plain decomposition and multiperiodicity analysis, we analyze temporal variations in a novel view of multiscale-mixing, which is based on an intuitive but important observation that time series present distinct patterns in different sampling scales. The microscopic and the macroscopic information are reflected in fine and coarse scales respectively, and thereby complex variations can be inherently disentangled. Based on this observation, we propose TimeMixer as a fully MLP-based architecture with Past-Decomposable-Mixing (PDM) and Future-Multipredictor-Mixing (FMM) blocks to take full advantage of disentangled multiscale series in both past extraction and future prediction phases. Concretely, PDM applies the decomposition to multiscale series and further mixes the decomposed seasonal and trend components in fine-to-coarse and coarse-to-fine directions separately, which successively aggregates the microscopic seasonal and macroscopic trend information. FMM further ensembles multiple predictors to utilize complementary forecasting capabilities in multiscale observations. Consequently, TimeMixer is able to achieve consistent state-of-the-art performances in both long-term and short-term forecasting tasks with favorable run-time efficiency.

We identify and formalize a fundamental gradient descent phenomenon resulting in a learning proclivity in over-parameterized neural networks. Gradient Starvation arises when cross-entropy loss is minimized by capturing only a subset of features relevant for the task, despite the presence of other predictive features that fail to be discovered. This work provides a theoretical explanation for the emergence of such feature imbalance in neural networks. Using tools from Dynamical Systems theory, we identify simple properties of learning dynamics during gradient descent that lead to this imbalance, and prove that such a situation can be expected given certain statistical structure in training data. Based on our proposed formalism, we develop guarantees for a novel regularization method aimed at decoupling feature learning dynamics, improving accuracy and robustness in cases hindered by gradient starvation. We illustrate our findings with simple and real-world out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization experiments.

We present a new approach to formulating and solving heterogeneous agent models with aggregate risk. We replace the cross-sectional distribution with low-dimensional prices as state variables and let agents learn equilibrium price dynamics directly from simulated paths. To do so, we introduce a structural reinforcement learning (SRL) method which treats prices via simulation while exploiting agents' structural knowledge of their own individual dynamics. Our SRL method yields a general and highly efficient global solution method for heterogeneous agent models that sidesteps the Master equation and handles problems traditional methods struggle with, in particular nontrivial market-clearing conditions. We illustrate the approach in the Krusell-Smith model, the Huggett model with aggregate shocks, and a HANK model with a forward-looking Phillips curve, all of which we solve globally within minutes.

Long-term forecasting of chaotic systems from short-term observations remains a fundamental and underexplored challenge due to the intrinsic sensitivity to initial conditions and the complex geometry of strange attractors. Existing approaches often rely on long-term training data or focus on short-term sequence correlations, struggling to maintain predictive stability and dynamical coherence over extended horizons. We propose PhyxMamba, a novel framework that integrates a Mamba-based state-space model with physics-informed principles to capture the underlying dynamics of chaotic systems. By reconstructing the attractor manifold from brief observations using time-delay embeddings, PhyxMamba extracts global dynamical features essential for accurate forecasting. Our generative training scheme enables Mamba to replicate the physical process, augmented by multi-token prediction and attractor geometry regularization for physical constraints, enhancing prediction accuracy and preserving key statistical invariants. Extensive evaluations on diverse simulated and real-world chaotic systems demonstrate that PhyxMamba delivers superior long-term forecasting and faithfully captures essential dynamical invariants from short-term data. This framework opens new avenues for reliably predicting chaotic systems under observation-scarce conditions, with broad implications across climate science, neuroscience, epidemiology, and beyond. Our code is open-source at https://github.com/tsinghua-fib-lab/PhyxMamba.

In dynamic programming (DP) and reinforcement learning (RL), an agent learns to act optimally in terms of expected long-term return by sequentially interacting with its environment modeled by a Markov decision process (MDP). More generally in distributional reinforcement learning (DRL), the focus is on the whole distribution of the return, not just its expectation. Although DRL-based methods produced state-of-the-art performance in RL with function approximation, they involve additional quantities (compared to the non-distributional setting) that are still not well understood. As a first contribution, we introduce a new class of distributional operators, together with a practical DP algorithm for policy evaluation, that come with a robust MDP interpretation. Indeed, our approach reformulates through an augmented state space where each state is split into a worst-case substate and a best-case substate, whose values are maximized by safe and risky policies respectively. Finally, we derive distributional operators and DP algorithms solving a new control task: How to distinguish safe from risky optimal actions in order to break ties in the space of optimal policies?

This paper studies Kernel density estimation for a high-dimensional distribution rho(x). Traditional approaches have focused on the limit of large number of data points n and fixed dimension d. We analyze instead the regime where both the number n of data points y_i and their dimensionality d grow with a fixed ratio alpha=(log n)/d. Our study reveals three distinct statistical regimes for the kernel-based estimate of the density hat rho_h^{D}(x)=1{n h^d}sum_{i=1}^n Kleft(x-y_i{h}right), depending on the bandwidth h: a classical regime for large bandwidth where the Central Limit Theorem (CLT) holds, which is akin to the one found in traditional approaches. Below a certain value of the bandwidth, h_{CLT}(alpha), we find that the CLT breaks down. The statistics of hat rho_h^{D}(x) for a fixed x drawn from rho(x) is given by a heavy-tailed distribution (an alpha-stable distribution). In particular below a value h_G(alpha), we find that hat rho_h^{D}(x) is governed by extreme value statistics: only a few points in the database matter and give the dominant contribution to the density estimator. We provide a detailed analysis for high-dimensional multivariate Gaussian data. We show that the optimal bandwidth threshold based on Kullback-Leibler divergence lies in the new statistical regime identified in this paper. Our findings reveal limitations of classical approaches, show the relevance of these new statistical regimes, and offer new insights for Kernel density estimation in high-dimensional settings.

Learning accurate predictive models of real-world dynamic phenomena (e.g., climate, biological) remains a challenging task. One key issue is that the data generated by both natural and artificial processes often comprise time series that are irregularly sampled and/or contain missing observations. In this work, we propose the Neural Continuous-Discrete State Space Model (NCDSSM) for continuous-time modeling of time series through discrete-time observations. NCDSSM employs auxiliary variables to disentangle recognition from dynamics, thus requiring amortized inference only for the auxiliary variables. Leveraging techniques from continuous-discrete filtering theory, we demonstrate how to perform accurate Bayesian inference for the dynamic states. We propose three flexible parameterizations of the latent dynamics and an efficient training objective that marginalizes the dynamic states during inference. Empirical results on multiple benchmark datasets across various domains show improved imputation and forecasting performance of NCDSSM over existing models.

Score-based diffusion models have emerged as one of the most promising frameworks for deep generative modelling, due to their state-of-the art performance in many generation tasks while relying on mathematical foundations such as stochastic differential equations (SDEs) and ordinary differential equations (ODEs). Empirically, it has been reported that ODE based samples are inferior to SDE based samples. In this paper we rigorously describe the range of dynamics and approximations that arise when training score-based diffusion models, including the true SDE dynamics, the neural approximations, the various approximate particle dynamics that result, as well as their associated Fokker--Planck equations and the neural network approximations of these Fokker--Planck equations. We systematically analyse the difference between the ODE and SDE dynamics of score-based diffusion models, and link it to an associated Fokker--Planck equation. We derive a theoretical upper bound on the Wasserstein 2-distance between the ODE- and SDE-induced distributions in terms of a Fokker--Planck residual. We also show numerically that conventional score-based diffusion models can exhibit significant differences between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions which we demonstrate using explicit comparisons. Moreover, we show numerically that reducing the Fokker--Planck residual by adding it as an additional regularisation term leads to closing the gap between ODE- and SDE-induced distributions. Our experiments suggest that this regularisation can improve the distribution generated by the ODE, however that this can come at the cost of degraded SDE sample quality.

Can evolving networks be inferred and modeled without directly observing their nodes and edges? In many applications, the edges of a dynamic network might not be observed, but one can observe the dynamics of stochastic cascading processes (e.g., information diffusion, virus propagation) occurring over the unobserved network. While there have been efforts to infer networks based on such data, providing a generative probabilistic model that is able to identify the underlying time-varying network remains an open question. Here we consider the problem of inferring generative dynamic network models based on network cascade diffusion data. We propose a novel framework for providing a non-parametric dynamic network model--based on a mixture of coupled hierarchical Dirichlet processes-- based on data capturing cascade node infection times. Our approach allows us to infer the evolving community structure in networks and to obtain an explicit predictive distribution over the edges of the underlying network--including those that were not involved in transmission of any cascade, or are likely to appear in the future. We show the effectiveness of our approach using extensive experiments on synthetic as well as real-world networks.

We present a concise dynamical picture of infant-driven household chaos. The framework has three postulations: recurrent daily chaos, overall entropy growth in household organization, and transient local ordering episodes with switching rules (a volatile Maxwell-demon effect). We illustrate entropy growth with a two-region toy model (organizer vs. play area), where entropy production is nonnegative and long-time behavior is typically play-area dominated. We also model toy diffusion and curiosity-driven behavior, where novelty matters more than punishment in the short term, while gradual learning still occurs.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

MoltBook is a large-scale multi-agent coordination environment where over 770,000 autonomous LLM agents interact without human participation, offering the first opportunity we are aware of to observe emergent multi-agent coordination dynamics at this population scale. We introduce Molt Dynamics: the emergent agent coordination behaviors, inter-agent communication dynamics, and role specialization patterns arising when autonomous agents operate as decentralized decision-makers in an unconstrained multi-agent environment. Through longitudinal observation of 90,704 active agents over three weeks, we characterize three aspects. First, spontaneous role specialization: network-based clustering reveals six structural roles (silhouette 0.91), though the result primarily reflects core-periphery organization -- 93.5\% of agents occupy a homogeneous peripheral cluster, with meaningful differentiation confined to the active minority. Second, decentralized information dissemination: cascade analysis of 10,323 inter-agent propagation events reveals power-law distributed cascade sizes (α= 2.57 pm 0.02) and saturating adoption dynamics where adoption probability shows diminishing returns with repeated exposures (Cox hazard ratio 0.53, concordance 0.78). Third, distributed cooperative task resolution: 164 multi-agent collaborative events show detectable coordination patterns, but success rates are low (6.7\%, p = 0.057) and cooperative outcomes are significantly worse than a matched single-agent baseline (Cohen's d = -0.88), indicating emergent cooperative behavior is nascent. These findings establish an empirical baseline for coordination dynamics in decentralized autonomous agent systems, with implications for multi-agent system design, agent communication protocol engineering, and AI safety.

We propose a new method called the N-particle underdamped Langevin algorithm for optimizing a special class of non-linear functionals defined over the space of probability measures. Examples of problems with this formulation include training mean-field neural networks, maximum mean discrepancy minimization and kernel Stein discrepancy minimization. Our algorithm is based on a novel spacetime discretization of the mean-field underdamped Langevin dynamics, for which we provide a new, fast mixing guarantee. In addition, we demonstrate that our algorithm converges globally in total variation distance, bridging the theoretical gap between the dynamics and its practical implementation.

Discovering the underlying relationships among variables from temporal observations has been a longstanding challenge in numerous scientific disciplines, including biology, finance, and climate science. The dynamics of such systems are often best described using continuous-time stochastic processes. Unfortunately, most existing structure learning approaches assume that the underlying process evolves in discrete-time and/or observations occur at regular time intervals. These mismatched assumptions can often lead to incorrect learned structures and models. In this work, we introduce a novel structure learning method, SCOTCH, which combines neural stochastic differential equations (SDE) with variational inference to infer a posterior distribution over possible structures. This continuous-time approach can naturally handle both learning from and predicting observations at arbitrary time points. Theoretically, we establish sufficient conditions for an SDE and SCOTCH to be structurally identifiable, and prove its consistency under infinite data limits. Empirically, we demonstrate that our approach leads to improved structure learning performance on both synthetic and real-world datasets compared to relevant baselines under regular and irregular sampling intervals.

A class of generative models that unifies flow-based and diffusion-based methods is introduced. These models extend the framework proposed in Albergo & Vanden-Eijnden (2023), enabling the use of a broad class of continuous-time stochastic processes called `stochastic interpolants' to bridge any two arbitrary probability density functions exactly in finite time. These interpolants are built by combining data from the two prescribed densities with an additional latent variable that shapes the bridge in a flexible way. The time-dependent probability density function of the stochastic interpolant is shown to satisfy a first-order transport equation as well as a family of forward and backward Fokker-Planck equations with tunable diffusion coefficient. Upon consideration of the time evolution of an individual sample, this viewpoint immediately leads to both deterministic and stochastic generative models based on probability flow equations or stochastic differential equations with an adjustable level of noise. The drift coefficients entering these models are time-dependent velocity fields characterized as the unique minimizers of simple quadratic objective functions, one of which is a new objective for the score of the interpolant density. We show that minimization of these quadratic objectives leads to control of the likelihood for generative models built upon stochastic dynamics, while likelihood control for deterministic dynamics is more stringent. We also discuss connections with other methods such as score-based diffusion models, stochastic localization processes, probabilistic denoising techniques, and rectifying flows. In addition, we demonstrate that stochastic interpolants recover the Schr\"odinger bridge between the two target densities when explicitly optimizing over the interpolant. Finally, algorithmic aspects are discussed and the approach is illustrated on numerical examples.

We introduce rd-spiral, an open-source Python library for simulating 2D reaction-diffusion systems using pseudo-spectral methods. The framework combines FFT-based spatial discretization with adaptive Dormand-Prince time integration, achieving exponential convergence while maintaining pedagogical clarity. We analyze three dynamical regimes: stable spirals, spatiotemporal chaos, and pattern decay, revealing extreme non-Gaussian statistics (kurtosis >96) in stable states. Information-theoretic metrics show 10.7% reduction in activator-inhibitor coupling during turbulence versus 6.5% in stable regimes. The solver handles stiffness ratios >6:1 with features including automated equilibrium classification and checkpointing. Effect sizes (delta=0.37--0.78) distinguish regimes, with asymmetric field sensitivities to perturbations. By balancing computational rigor with educational transparency, rd-spiral bridges theoretical and practical nonlinear dynamics.

To improve the sample efficiency of policy-gradient based reinforcement learning algorithms, we propose implicit distributional actor-critic (IDAC) that consists of a distributional critic, built on two deep generator networks (DGNs), and a semi-implicit actor (SIA), powered by a flexible policy distribution. We adopt a distributional perspective on the discounted cumulative return and model it with a state-action-dependent implicit distribution, which is approximated by the DGNs that take state-action pairs and random noises as their input. Moreover, we use the SIA to provide a semi-implicit policy distribution, which mixes the policy parameters with a reparameterizable distribution that is not constrained by an analytic density function. In this way, the policy's marginal distribution is implicit, providing the potential to model complex properties such as covariance structure and skewness, but its parameter and entropy can still be estimated. We incorporate these features with an off-policy algorithm framework to solve problems with continuous action space and compare IDAC with state-of-the-art algorithms on representative OpenAI Gym environments. We observe that IDAC outperforms these baselines in most tasks. Python code is provided.

Numerous biological and physical processes can be modeled as systems of interacting entities evolving continuously over time, e.g. the dynamics of communicating cells or physical particles. Learning the dynamics of such systems is essential for predicting the temporal evolution of populations across novel samples and unseen environments. Flow-based models allow for learning these dynamics at the population level - they model the evolution of the entire distribution of samples. However, current flow-based models are limited to a single initial population and a set of predefined conditions which describe different dynamics. We argue that multiple processes in natural sciences have to be represented as vector fields on the Wasserstein manifold of probability densities. That is, the change of the population at any moment in time depends on the population itself due to the interactions between samples. In particular, this is crucial for personalized medicine where the development of diseases and their respective treatment response depends on the microenvironment of cells specific to each patient. We propose Meta Flow Matching (MFM), a practical approach to integrating along these vector fields on the Wasserstein manifold by amortizing the flow model over the initial populations. Namely, we embed the population of samples using a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and use these embeddings to train a Flow Matching model. This gives MFM the ability to generalize over the initial distributions unlike previously proposed methods. We demonstrate the ability of MFM to improve prediction of individual treatment responses on a large scale multi-patient single-cell drug screen dataset.

In many real-world settings, agents must learn from an offline dataset gathered by some prior behavior policy. Such a setting naturally leads to distribution shift between the behavior policy and the target policy being trained - requiring policy conservatism to avoid instability and overestimation bias. Autoregressive world models offer a different solution to this by generating synthetic, on-policy experience. However, in practice, model rollouts must be severely truncated to avoid compounding error. As an alternative, we propose policy-guided diffusion. Our method uses diffusion models to generate entire trajectories under the behavior distribution, applying guidance from the target policy to move synthetic experience further on-policy. We show that policy-guided diffusion models a regularized form of the target distribution that balances action likelihood under both the target and behavior policies, leading to plausible trajectories with high target policy probability, while retaining a lower dynamics error than an offline world model baseline. Using synthetic experience from policy-guided diffusion as a drop-in substitute for real data, we demonstrate significant improvements in performance across a range of standard offline reinforcement learning algorithms and environments. Our approach provides an effective alternative to autoregressive offline world models, opening the door to the controllable generation of synthetic training data.

Despite the rapid advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI), Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) remain the gold-standard formalism for modeling systems under uncertainty. However, applying SDEs in practice is fraught with challenges: modeling risk is high, calibration is often brittle, and high-fidelity simulations are computationally expensive. This technical report introduces JointFM, a foundation model that inverts this paradigm. Instead of fitting SDEs to data, we sample an infinite stream of synthetic SDEs to train a generic model to predict future joint probability distributions directly. This approach establishes JointFM as the first foundation model for distributional predictions of coupled time series - requiring no task-specific calibration or finetuning. Despite operating in a purely zero-shot setting, JointFM reduces the energy loss by 14.2% relative to the strongest baseline when recovering oracle joint distributions generated by unseen synthetic SDEs.

Achieving robust coordination and cooperation is a central challenge in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL). Uncovering the mechanisms underlying such emergent behaviors calls for a dynamical understanding of learn processes. In this work, we investigate the dynamics of actor-critic agents in stochastic games, focusing on the impact of entropy regularization. By leveraging time-scale separation, we derive the system's evolution equations, which are then formally analyzed using dynamical systems theory. We find that in the constant-sum game of Matching Pennies, the system exhibits chaotic behavior. Entropy regularization mitigates this chaos and drives the dynamics toward convergence to fair cooperation. In contrast, in the general-sum game of the Prisoner's Dilemma, the system displays multistability. Interestingly, the three stable equilibria of the system correspond to the well-known ALLC (Always Cooperate), ALLD (Always Defect), and GRIM (Grim Trigger) strategies from evolutionary game theory (EGT). Entropy regularization strengthens system resilience by enlarging the basin of attraction of the cooperative equilibrium. Our findings reveal a close link between the mechanism of direct reciprocity in EGT and how cooperation emerges in MARL, offering insights for designing more robust and collaborative multi-agent systems.

We present MotionDiffuser, a diffusion based representation for the joint distribution of future trajectories over multiple agents. Such representation has several key advantages: first, our model learns a highly multimodal distribution that captures diverse future outcomes. Second, the simple predictor design requires only a single L2 loss training objective, and does not depend on trajectory anchors. Third, our model is capable of learning the joint distribution for the motion of multiple agents in a permutation-invariant manner. Furthermore, we utilize a compressed trajectory representation via PCA, which improves model performance and allows for efficient computation of the exact sample log probability. Subsequently, we propose a general constrained sampling framework that enables controlled trajectory sampling based on differentiable cost functions. This strategy enables a host of applications such as enforcing rules and physical priors, or creating tailored simulation scenarios. MotionDiffuser can be combined with existing backbone architectures to achieve top motion forecasting results. We obtain state-of-the-art results for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

Varying dynamics parameters in simulation is a popular Domain Randomization (DR) approach for overcoming the reality gap in Reinforcement Learning (RL). Nevertheless, DR heavily hinges on the choice of the sampling distribution of the dynamics parameters, since high variability is crucial to regularize the agent's behavior but notoriously leads to overly conservative policies when randomizing excessively. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to address sim-to-real transfer, which automatically shapes dynamics distributions during training in simulation without requiring real-world data. We introduce DOmain RAndomization via Entropy MaximizatiON (DORAEMON), a constrained optimization problem that directly maximizes the entropy of the training distribution while retaining generalization capabilities. In achieving this, DORAEMON gradually increases the diversity of sampled dynamics parameters as long as the probability of success of the current policy is sufficiently high. We empirically validate the consistent benefits of DORAEMON in obtaining highly adaptive and generalizable policies, i.e. solving the task at hand across the widest range of dynamics parameters, as opposed to representative baselines from the DR literature. Notably, we also demonstrate the Sim2Real applicability of DORAEMON through its successful zero-shot transfer in a robotic manipulation setup under unknown real-world parameters.

Gaussian process state-space models (GPSSMs) provide a principled and flexible approach to modeling the dynamics of a latent state, which is observed at discrete-time points via a likelihood model. However, inference in GPSSMs is computationally and statistically challenging due to the large number of latent variables in the model and the strong temporal dependencies between them. In this paper, we propose a new method for inference in Bayesian GPSSMs, which overcomes the drawbacks of previous approaches, namely over-simplified assumptions, and high computational requirements. Our method is based on free-form variational inference via stochastic gradient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo within the inducing-variable formalism. Furthermore, by exploiting our proposed variational distribution, we provide a collapsed extension of our method where the inducing variables are marginalized analytically. We also showcase results when combining our framework with particle MCMC methods. We show that, on six real-world datasets, our approach can learn transition dynamics and latent states more accurately than competing methods.

Diffusion models are often introduced from multiple perspectives, such as VAEs, score matching, or flow matching, accompanied by dense and technically demanding mathematics that can be difficult for beginners to grasp. One classic question is: how does the reverse process invert the forward process to generate data from pure noise? This article systematically organizes the diffusion model from a fresh Langevin perspective, offering a simpler, clearer, and more intuitive answer. We also address the following questions: how can ODE-based and SDE-based diffusion models be unified under a single framework? Why are diffusion models theoretically superior to ordinary VAEs? Why is flow matching not fundamentally simpler than denoising or score matching, but equivalent under maximum-likelihood? We demonstrate that the Langevin perspective offers clear and straightforward answers to these questions, bridging existing interpretations of diffusion models, showing how different formulations can be converted into one another within a common framework, and offering pedagogical value for both learners and experienced researchers seeking deeper intuition.

Networks have become indispensable and ubiquitous structures in many fields to model the interactions among different entities, such as friendship in social networks or protein interactions in biological graphs. A major challenge is to understand the structure and dynamics of these systems. Although networks evolve through time, most existing graph representation learning methods target only static networks. Whereas approaches have been developed for the modeling of dynamic networks, there is a lack of efficient continuous time dynamic graph representation learning methods that can provide accurate network characterization and visualization in low dimensions while explicitly accounting for prominent network characteristics such as homophily and transitivity. In this paper, we propose the Piecewise-Velocity Model (PiVeM) for the representation of continuous-time dynamic networks. It learns dynamic embeddings in which the temporal evolution of nodes is approximated by piecewise linear interpolations based on a latent distance model with piecewise constant node-specific velocities. The model allows for analytically tractable expressions of the associated Poisson process likelihood with scalable inference invariant to the number of events. We further impose a scalable Kronecker structured Gaussian Process prior to the dynamics accounting for community structure, temporal smoothness, and disentangled (uncorrelated) latent embedding dimensions optimally learned to characterize the network dynamics. We show that PiVeM can successfully represent network structure and dynamics in ultra-low two-dimensional spaces. It outperforms relevant state-of-art methods in downstream tasks such as link prediction. In summary, PiVeM enables easily interpretable dynamic network visualizations and characterizations that can further improve our understanding of the intrinsic dynamics of time-evolving networks.

Selective state space models (SSM), such as Mamba, have gained prominence for their effectiveness in modeling sequential data. Despite their outstanding empirical performance, a comprehensive theoretical understanding of deep selective SSM remains elusive, hindering their further development and adoption for applications that need high fidelity. In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of tokens in a pre-trained Mamba model. In particular, we derive the dynamical system governing the continuous-time limit of the Mamba model and characterize the asymptotic behavior of its solutions. In the one-dimensional case, we prove that only one of the following two scenarios happens: either all tokens converge to zero, or all tokens diverge to infinity. We provide criteria based on model parameters to determine when each scenario occurs. For the convergent scenario, we empirically verify that this scenario negatively impacts the model's performance. For the divergent scenario, we prove that different tokens will diverge to infinity at different rates, thereby contributing unequally to the updates during model training. Based on these investigations, we propose two refinements for the model: excluding the convergent scenario and reordering tokens based on their importance scores, both aimed at improving practical performance. Our experimental results validate these refinements, offering insights into enhancing Mamba's effectiveness in real-world applications.

Recent years have witnessed significant progress in developing efficient training and fast sampling approaches for diffusion models. A recent remarkable advancement is the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) to describe data perturbation and generative modeling in a unified mathematical framework. In this paper, we reveal several intriguing geometric structures of diffusion models and contribute a simple yet powerful interpretation to their sampling dynamics. Through carefully inspecting a popular variance-exploding SDE and its marginal-preserving ordinary differential equation (ODE) for sampling, we discover that the data distribution and the noise distribution are smoothly connected with an explicit, quasi-linear sampling trajectory, and another implicit denoising trajectory, which even converges faster in terms of visual quality. We also establish a theoretical relationship between the optimal ODE-based sampling and the classic mean-shift (mode-seeking) algorithm, with which we can characterize the asymptotic behavior of diffusion models and identify the score deviation. These new geometric observations enable us to improve previous sampling algorithms, re-examine latent interpolation, as well as re-explain the working principles of distillation-based fast sampling techniques.

We study the variance of stochastic policy gradients (SPGs) with many action samples per state. We derive a many-actions optimality condition, which determines when many-actions SPG yields lower variance as compared to a single-action agent with proportionally extended trajectory. We propose Model-Based Many-Actions (MBMA), an approach leveraging dynamics models for many-actions sampling in the context of SPG. MBMA addresses issues associated with existing implementations of many-actions SPG and yields lower bias and comparable variance to SPG estimated from states in model-simulated rollouts. We find that MBMA bias and variance structure matches that predicted by theory. As a result, MBMA achieves improved sample efficiency and higher returns on a range of continuous action environments as compared to model-free, many-actions, and model-based on-policy SPG baselines.

Reinforcement learning (RL) for continuous control typically employs distributions whose support covers the entire action space. In this work, we investigate the colloquially known phenomenon that trained agents often prefer actions at the boundaries of that space. We draw theoretical connections to the emergence of bang-bang behavior in optimal control, and provide extensive empirical evaluation across a variety of recent RL algorithms. We replace the normal Gaussian by a Bernoulli distribution that solely considers the extremes along each action dimension - a bang-bang controller. Surprisingly, this achieves state-of-the-art performance on several continuous control benchmarks - in contrast to robotic hardware, where energy and maintenance cost affect controller choices. Since exploration, learning,and the final solution are entangled in RL, we provide additional imitation learning experiments to reduce the impact of exploration on our analysis. Finally, we show that our observations generalize to environments that aim to model real-world challenges and evaluate factors to mitigate the emergence of bang-bang solutions. Our findings emphasize challenges for benchmarking continuous control algorithms, particularly in light of potential real-world applications.

Diffusion models have demonstrated highly-expressive generative capabilities in vision and NLP. Recent studies in reinforcement learning (RL) have shown that diffusion models are also powerful in modeling complex policies or trajectories in offline datasets. However, these works have been limited to single-task settings where a generalist agent capable of addressing multi-task predicaments is absent. In this paper, we aim to investigate the effectiveness of a single diffusion model in modeling large-scale multi-task offline data, which can be challenging due to diverse and multimodal data distribution. Specifically, we propose Multi-Task Diffusion Model (MTDiff), a diffusion-based method that incorporates Transformer backbones and prompt learning for generative planning and data synthesis in multi-task offline settings. MTDiff leverages vast amounts of knowledge available in multi-task data and performs implicit knowledge sharing among tasks. For generative planning, we find MTDiff outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms across 50 tasks on Meta-World and 8 maps on Maze2D. For data synthesis, MTDiff generates high-quality data for testing tasks given a single demonstration as a prompt, which enhances the low-quality datasets for even unseen tasks.

The aim of this paper is to present an elementary computable theory of probability, random variables and stochastic processes. The probability theory is baed on existing approaches using valuations and lower integrals. Various approaches to random variables are discussed, including the approach based on completions in a Polish space. We apply the theory to the study of stochastic dynamical systems in discrete-time, and give a brief exposition of the Wiener process as a foundation for stochastic differential equations. The theory is based within the framework of type-two effectivity, so has an explicit direct link with Turing computation, and is expressed in a system of computable types and operations, so has a clean mathematical description.

Time series forecasting in real-world applications requires both high predictive accuracy and interpretable uncertainty quantification. Traditional point prediction methods often fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in time series data, while existing probabilistic approaches struggle to balance computational efficiency with interpretability. We propose a novel Multi-Expert Learning Distributional Labels (LDL) framework that addresses these challenges through mixture-of-experts architectures with distributional learning capabilities. Our approach introduces two complementary methods: (1) Multi-Expert LDL, which employs multiple experts with different learned parameters to capture diverse temporal patterns, and (2) Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE, which explicitly decomposes time series into interpretable components (trend, seasonality, changepoints, volatility) through specialized sub-experts. Both frameworks extend traditional point prediction to distributional learning, enabling rich uncertainty quantification through Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We evaluate our methods on aggregated sales data derived from the M5 dataset, demonstrating superior performance compared to baseline approaches. The continuous Multi-Expert LDL achieves the best overall performance, while the Pattern-Aware LDL-MoE provides enhanced interpretability through component-wise analysis. Our frameworks successfully balance predictive accuracy with interpretability, making them suitable for real-world forecasting applications where both performance and actionable insights are crucial.

This paper presents a method for constructing human-robot interaction policies in settings where multimodality, i.e., the possibility of multiple highly distinct futures, plays a critical role in decision making. We are motivated in this work by the example of traffic weaving, e.g., at highway on-ramps/off-ramps, where entering and exiting cars must swap lanes in a short distance---a challenging negotiation even for experienced drivers due to the inherent multimodal uncertainty of who will pass whom. Our approach is to learn multimodal probability distributions over future human actions from a dataset of human-human exemplars and perform real-time robot policy construction in the resulting environment model through massively parallel sampling of human responses to candidate robot action sequences. Direct learning of these distributions is made possible by recent advances in the theory of conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs), whereby we learn action distributions simultaneously conditioned on the present interaction history, as well as candidate future robot actions in order to take into account response dynamics. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with a human-in-the-loop simulation of a traffic weaving scenario.

Learning the continuous dynamics of a system from snapshots of its temporal marginals is a problem which appears throughout natural sciences and machine learning, including in quantum systems, single-cell biological data, and generative modeling. In these settings, we assume access to cross-sectional samples that are uncorrelated over time, rather than full trajectories of samples. In order to better understand the systems under observation, we would like to learn a model of the underlying process that allows us to propagate samples in time and thereby simulate entire individual trajectories. In this work, we propose Action Matching, a method for learning a rich family of dynamics using only independent samples from its time evolution. We derive a tractable training objective, which does not rely on explicit assumptions about the underlying dynamics and does not require back-propagation through differential equations or optimal transport solvers. Inspired by connections with optimal transport, we derive extensions of Action Matching to learn stochastic differential equations and dynamics involving creation and destruction of probability mass. Finally, we showcase applications of Action Matching by achieving competitive performance in a diverse set of experiments from biology, physics, and generative modeling.

This chapter provides a pedagogical introduction and overview of spatial and temporal correlation and fluctuation effects resulting from the fundamentally stochastic kinetics underlying chemical reactions and the dynamics of populations or epidemics. After reviewing the assumptions and mean-field type approximations involved in the construction of chemical rate equations for uniform reactant densities, we first discuss spatial clustering in birth-death systems, where non-linearities are introduced through either density-limiting pair reactions, or equivalently via local imposition of finite carrying capacities. The competition of offspring production, death, and non-linear inhibition induces a population extinction threshold, which represents a non-equilibrium phase transition that separates active from absorbing states. This continuous transition is characterized by the universal scaling exponents of critical directed percolation clusters. Next we focus on the emergence of depletion zones in single-species annihilation processes and spatial population segregation with the associated reaction fronts in two-species pair annihilation. These strong (anti-)correlation effects are dynamically generated by the underlying stochastic kinetics. Finally, we address noise-induced and fluctuation-stabilized spatio-temporal patterns in basic predator-prey systems, exemplified by spreading activity fronts in the two-species Lotka-Volterra model as well as spiral structures in the May-Leonard variant of cyclically competing three-species systems akin to rock-paper-scissors games.

Molecular dynamics (MD) is a central computational tool in physics, chemistry, and biology, enabling quantitative prediction of experimental observables as expectations over high-dimensional molecular distributions such as Boltzmann distributions and transition densities. However, conventional MD is fundamentally limited by the high computational cost required to generate independent samples. Generative molecular dynamics (GenMD) has recently emerged as an alternative, learning surrogates of molecular distributions either from data or through interaction with energy models. While these methods enable efficient sampling, their transferability across molecular systems is often limited. In this work, we show that incorporating auxiliary sources of information can improve the data efficiency and generalization of transferable implicit transfer operators (TITO) for molecular dynamics. We find that coarse-grained TITO models are substantially more data-efficient than Boltzmann Emulators, and that incorporating protein language model (pLM) embeddings further improves out-of-distribution generalization. Our approach, PLaTITO, achieves state-of-the-art performance on equilibrium sampling benchmarks for out-of-distribution protein systems, including fast-folding proteins. We further study the impact of additional conditioning signals -- such as structural embeddings, temperature, and large-language-model-derived embeddings -- on model performance.

Recent work has shown promising results in causal discovery by leveraging interventional data with gradient-based methods, even when the intervened variables are unknown. However, previous work assumes that the correspondence between samples and interventions is known, which is often unrealistic. We envision a scenario with an extensive dataset sampled from multiple intervention distributions and one observation distribution, but where we do not know which distribution originated each sample and how the intervention affected the system, i.e., interventions are entirely latent. We propose a method based on neural networks and variational inference that addresses this scenario by framing it as learning a shared causal graph among an infinite mixture (under a Dirichlet process prior) of intervention structural causal models. Experiments with synthetic and real data show that our approach and its semi-supervised variant are able to discover causal relations in this challenging scenario.

We introduce adversarial learning methods for data-driven generative modeling of the dynamics of n^{th}-order stochastic systems. Our approach builds on Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) with generative model classes based on stable m-step stochastic numerical integrators. We introduce different formulations and training methods for learning models of stochastic dynamics based on observation of trajectory samples. We develop approaches using discriminators based on Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD), training protocols using conditional and marginal distributions, and methods for learning dynamic responses over different time-scales. We show how our approaches can be used for modeling physical systems to learn force-laws, damping coefficients, and noise-related parameters. The adversarial learning approaches provide methods for obtaining stable generative models for dynamic tasks including long-time prediction and developing simulations for stochastic systems.

This paper studies distributional model risk in marginal problems, where each marginal measure is assumed to lie in a Wasserstein ball centered at a fixed reference measure with a given radius. Theoretically, we establish several fundamental results including strong duality, finiteness of the proposed Wasserstein distributional model risk, and the existence of an optimizer at each radius. In addition, we show continuity of the Wasserstein distributional model risk as a function of the radius. Using strong duality, we extend the well-known Makarov bounds for the distribution function of the sum of two random variables with given marginals to Wasserstein distributionally robust Markarov bounds. Practically, we illustrate our results on four distinct applications when the sample information comes from multiple data sources and only some marginal reference measures are identified. They are: partial identification of treatment effects; externally valid treatment choice via robust welfare functions; Wasserstein distributionally robust estimation under data combination; and evaluation of the worst aggregate risk measures.

While efficient distribution learning is no doubt behind the groundbreaking success of diffusion modeling, its theoretical guarantees are quite limited. In this paper, we provide the first rigorous analysis on approximation and generalization abilities of diffusion modeling for well-known function spaces. The highlight of this paper is that when the true density function belongs to the Besov space and the empirical score matching loss is properly minimized, the generated data distribution achieves the nearly minimax optimal estimation rates in the total variation distance and in the Wasserstein distance of order one. Furthermore, we extend our theory to demonstrate how diffusion models adapt to low-dimensional data distributions. We expect these results advance theoretical understandings of diffusion modeling and its ability to generate verisimilar outputs.

Intelligent systems across physics, language and perception often exhibit factorisable structure, yet are typically modelled by monolithic neural architectures that do not explicitly exploit this structure. The separable neural architecture (SNA) addresses this by formalising a representational class that unifies additive, quadratic and tensor-decomposed neural models. By constraining interaction order and tensor rank, SNAs impose a structural inductive bias that factorises high-dimensional mappings into low-arity components. Separability need not be a property of the system itself: it often emerges in the coordinates or representations through which the system is expressed. Crucially, this coordinate-aware formulation reveals a structural analogy between chaotic spatiotemporal dynamics and linguistic autoregression. By treating continuous physical states as smooth, separable embeddings, SNAs enable distributional modelling of chaotic systems. This approach mitigates the nonphysical drift characteristics of deterministic operators whilst remaining applicable to discrete sequences. The compositional versatility of this approach is demonstrated across four domains: autonomous waypoint navigation via reinforcement learning, inverse generation of multifunctional microstructures, distributional modelling of turbulent flow and neural language modelling. These results establish the separable neural architecture as a domain-agnostic primitive for predictive and generative intelligence, capable of unifying both deterministic and distributional representations.

Many natural dynamic processes -- such as in vivo cellular differentiation or disease progression -- can only be observed through the lens of static sample snapshots. While challenging, reconstructing their temporal evolution to decipher underlying dynamic properties is of major interest to scientific research. Existing approaches enable data transport along a temporal axis but are poorly scalable in high dimension and require restrictive assumptions to be met. To address these issues, we propose \textbf{Multi-Marginal temporal Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching} (MMtSBM) for video generation from unpaired data, extending the theoretical guarantees and empirical efficiency of Diffusion Schr\"odinger Bridge Matching (arXiv:archive/2303.16852) by deriving the Iterative Markovian Fitting algorithm to multiple marginals in a novel factorized fashion. Experiments show that MMtSBM retains theoretical properties on toy examples, achieves state-of-the-art performance on real world datasets such as transcriptomic trajectory inference in 100 dimensions, and for the first time recovers couplings and dynamics in very high dimensional image settings. Our work establishes multi-marginal Schr\"odinger bridges as a practical and principled approach for recovering hidden dynamics from static data.

Multivariate time series is prevalent in many scientific and industrial domains. Modeling multivariate signals is challenging due to their long-range temporal dependencies and intricate interactions--both direct and indirect. To confront these complexities, we introduce a method of representing multivariate signals as nodes in a graph with edges indicating interdependency between them. Specifically, we leverage graph neural networks (GNN) and attention mechanisms to efficiently learn the underlying relationships within the time series data. Moreover, we suggest employing hierarchical signal decompositions running over the graphs to capture multiple spatial dependencies. The effectiveness of our proposed model is evaluated across various real-world benchmark datasets designed for long-term forecasting tasks. The results consistently showcase the superiority of our model, achieving an average 23\% reduction in mean squared error (MSE) compared to existing models.

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In this article we adopt the Bayesian paradigm and synthesize publicly available data via a discrete-time stochastic epidemic modeling framework. The models allow for estimating the total number of infections while accounting for the endemic phase of the pandemic. We assess the prediction of the infection rate utilizing mobility information, notably the principal components of the mobility data. We evaluate variational Bayes in this context and find that Hamiltonian Monte Carlo offers a robust inference alternative for such models. We elaborate upon vector analysis of the epidemic dynamics, thus enriching the traditional tools used for decision making. In particular, we show how certain 2-dimensional plots on the phase plane may yield intuitive information regarding the speed and the type of transmission dynamics. We investigate the potential of a two-stage analysis as a consequence of cutting feedback, for inference on certain functionals of the model parameters. Finally, we show that a point mass on critical parameters is overly restrictive and investigate informative priors as a suitable alternative.

Significant recent work has studied the ability of gradient descent to recover a hidden planted direction θ^star in S^{d-1} in different high-dimensional settings, including tensor PCA and single-index models. The key quantity that governs the ability of gradient descent to traverse these landscapes is the information exponent k^star (Ben Arous et al., (2021)), which corresponds to the order of the saddle at initialization in the population landscape. Ben Arous et al., (2021) showed that n gtrsim d^{max(1, k^star-1)} samples were necessary and sufficient for online SGD to recover θ^star, and Ben Arous et al., (2020) proved a similar lower bound for Langevin dynamics. More recently, Damian et al., (2023) showed it was possible to circumvent these lower bounds by running gradient descent on a smoothed landscape, and that this algorithm succeeds with n gtrsim d^{max(1, k^star/2)} samples, which is optimal in the worst case. This raises the question of whether it is possible to achieve the same rate without explicit smoothing. In this paper, we show that Langevin dynamics can succeed with n gtrsim d^{ k^star/2 } samples if one considers the average iterate, rather than the last iterate. The key idea is that the combination of noise-injection and iterate averaging is able to emulate the effect of landscape smoothing. We apply this result to both the tensor PCA and single-index model settings. Finally, we conjecture that minibatch SGD can also achieve the same rate without adding any additional noise.

Reinforcement learning (RL) allows an agent interacting sequentially with an environment to maximize its long-term expected return. In the distributional RL (DistrRL) paradigm, the agent goes beyond the limit of the expected value, to capture the underlying probability distribution of the return across all time steps. The set of DistrRL algorithms has led to improved empirical performance. Nevertheless, the theory of DistrRL is still not fully understood, especially in the control case. In this paper, we present the simpler one-step distributional reinforcement learning (OS-DistrRL) framework encompassing only the randomness induced by the one-step dynamics of the environment. Contrary to DistrRL, we show that our approach comes with a unified theory for both policy evaluation and control. Indeed, we propose two OS-DistrRL algorithms for which we provide an almost sure convergence analysis. The proposed approach compares favorably with categorical DistrRL on various environments.

Time-series forecasting is one of the most active research topics in artificial intelligence. Applications in real-world time series should consider two factors for achieving reliable predictions: modeling dynamic dependencies among multiple variables and adjusting the model's intrinsic hyperparameters. A still open gap in that literature is that statistical and ensemble learning approaches systematically present lower predictive performance than deep learning methods. They generally disregard the data sequence aspect entangled with multivariate data represented in more than one time series. Conversely, this work presents a novel neural network architecture for time-series forecasting that combines the power of graph evolution with deep recurrent learning on distinct data distributions; we named our method Recurrent Graph Evolution Neural Network (ReGENN). The idea is to infer multiple multivariate relationships between co-occurring time-series by assuming that the temporal data depends not only on inner variables and intra-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from itself) but also on outer variables and inter-temporal relationships (i.e., observations from other-selves). An extensive set of experiments was conducted comparing ReGENN with dozens of ensemble methods and classical statistical ones, showing sound improvement of up to 64.87% over the competing algorithms. Furthermore, we present an analysis of the intermediate weights arising from ReGENN, showing that by looking at inter and intra-temporal relationships simultaneously, time-series forecasting is majorly improved if paying attention to how multiple multivariate data synchronously evolve.

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we propose a learning paradigm that directly establishes causation between events in the course of time. We present two key lemmas to compute causal contributions and frame them as reinforcement learning problems. Our approach offers formal and computational tools for uncovering and quantifying causal relationships in diffusion processes, subsuming various important settings such as discrete-time Markov decision processes. Finally, in fairly intricate experiments and through sheer learning, our framework reveals and quantifies causal links, which otherwise seem inexplicable.

Straight line equation y=mx with slope m, when singularly perturbed as ay^3+y=mx with a positive parameter a, results in S-shaped curves or S-curves on a real plane. As arightarrow 0, we get back y=mx which is a cumulative distribution function of a continuous uniform distribution that describes the occurrence of every event in an interval to be equally probable. As arightarrowinfty, the derivative of y has finite support only at y=0 resembling a degenerate distribution. Based on these arguments, in this work, we propose that these S-curves can represent maximum entropy uniform distribution to a zero entropy single value. We also argue that these S-curves are superposable as they are only parametrically nonlinear but fundamentally linear. So far, the superposed forms have been used to capture the patterns of natural systems such as nonlinear dynamics of biological growth and kinetics of enzyme reactions. Here, we attempt to use the S-curve and its superposed form as statistical models. We fit the models on a classical dataset containing flower measurements of iris plants and analyze their usefulness in pattern recognition. Based on these models, we claim that any non-uniform pattern can be represented as a singular perturbation to uniform distribution. However, our parametric estimation procedure have some limitations such as sensitivity to initial conditions depending on the data at hand.

Deterministic inference is a comforting ideal in classical software: the same program on the same input should always produce the same output. As large language models move into real-world deployment, this ideal has been imported wholesale into inference stacks. Recent work from the Thinking Machines Lab has presented a detailed analysis of nondeterminism in LLM inference, showing how batch-invariant kernels and deterministic attention can enforce bitwise-identical outputs, positioning deterministic inference as a prerequisite for reproducibility and enterprise reliability. In this paper, we take the opposite stance. We argue that, for LLMs, deterministic inference kills. It kills the ability to model uncertainty, suppresses emergent abilities, collapses reasoning into a single brittle path, and weakens safety alignment by hiding tail risks. LLMs implement conditional distributions over outputs, not fixed functions. Collapsing these distributions to a single canonical completion may appear reassuring, but it systematically conceals properties central to artificial cognition. We instead advocate Stochastic CHAOS, treating distributional variability as a signal to be measured and controlled. Empirically, we show that deterministic inference is systematically misleading. Single-sample deterministic evaluation underestimates both capability and fragility, masking failure probability under paraphrases and noise. Phase-like transitions associated with emergent abilities disappear under greedy decoding. Multi-path reasoning degrades when forced onto deterministic backbones, reducing accuracy and diagnostic insight. Finally, deterministic evaluation underestimates safety risk by hiding rare but dangerous behaviors that appear only under multi-sample evaluation.

Some classical uncertainty quantification problems require the estimation of multiple expectations. Estimating all of them accurately is crucial and can have a major impact on the analysis to perform, and standard existing Monte Carlo methods can be costly to do so. We propose here a new procedure based on importance sampling and control variates for estimating more efficiently multiple expectations with the same sample. We first show that there exists a family of optimal estimators combining both importance sampling and control variates, which however cannot be used in practice because they require the knowledge of the values of the expectations to estimate. Motivated by the form of these optimal estimators and some interesting properties, we therefore propose an adaptive algorithm. The general idea is to adaptively update the parameters of the estimators for approaching the optimal ones. We suggest then a quantitative stopping criterion that exploits the trade-off between approaching these optimal parameters and having a sufficient budget left. This left budget is then used to draw a new independent sample from the final sampling distribution, allowing to get unbiased estimators of the expectations. We show how to apply our procedure to sensitivity analysis, by estimating Sobol' indices and quantifying the impact of the input distributions. Finally, realistic test cases show the practical interest of the proposed algorithm, and its significant improvement over estimating the expectations separately.

Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) is a powerful method for detecting causality in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems, providing a model-free approach to capture dynamic causal interactions. Partial Cross Mapping (PCM) was introduced as an extension of CCM to address indirect causality in three-variable systems by comparing cross-mapping quality between direct cause-effect mapping and indirect mapping through an intermediate conditioning variable. However, PCM remains limited to univariate delay embeddings in its cross-mapping processes. In this work, we extend PCM to the multivariate setting, introducing multiPCM, which leverages multivariate embeddings to more effectively distinguish indirect causal relationships. We further propose a multivariate cross-mapping framework (MXMap) for causal discovery in dynamical systems. This two-phase framework combines (1) pairwise CCM tests to establish an initial causal graph and (2) multiPCM to refine the graph by pruning indirect causal connections. Through experiments on simulated data and the ERA5 Reanalysis weather dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of MXMap. Additionally, MXMap is compared against several baseline methods, showing advantages in accuracy and causal graph refinement.